Hiscox WTPV Mar 2011.Indd

WTPVWAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE

BRIEFING MARCH 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Transnational terrorism 2

Proﬁ le: Middle East unrest 3

Worldwide political violence 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa

Ruler Col Muammar al-Gadhaﬁ has pledged to ﬁ ght on in the face of a large-scale uprising against his rule LIBYA: MASS POPULAR UPRISING THREATENS RULING REGIME The security environment has deteriorated power; Gadhafi on 22 February pledged to rapidly in recent days as a popular uprising crush the protests and called on supporters against the regime of Col Muammar al- to ‘cleanse’ the country of his opponents. Gadhafi has continued to gather steam. As a result, violence is likely to escalate; Much of the east of the country is now in reports on 23 February indicated that the opposition hands, while the capital Tripoli regime was handing out weapons to its – Gadhafi’s traditional stronghold – has supporters and that it was also continuing descended into a state of low-level civil war; to rely on foreign mercenaries to secure at least 200 people have been killed in the control of key locations. For more information about Hiscox or capital since widespread fighting broke out Control Risks, please contact: on 21 February. Meanwhile, the resignation The security forces’ continued willingness of Interior Minister Abdel Fattah Younes to support Gadhafi will largely determine Stephen Ashwell al-Abidi, viewed as Gadhafi’s ‘number two’, the length and scope of any armed conflict, Tel: 020 7448 6725 on 22 February has provided the clearest and possibly even civil war. While some 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX sign yet that the regime is on the verge of units have defected – a number of units in [email protected] collapse. Although Gadhafi retains some the eastern city of Benghazi have joined www.hiscox.com support within the military, key units have the protesters, while a group of officers has defected, as have tribal groups that for long publicly called for the regime to stand aside Peter Simpson have formed the backbone of the regime. – Gadhafi retains the support of sufficient Tel: 020 7970 2373 forces to mount a sustained counter- Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, Gadhafi is facing a mass popular uprising offensive. However, further defections, London SE1 2QG from which his recovery is hard to conceive, which appear increasingly likely, could and has made clear through both words fatally undermine Gadhafi’s ability to hold [email protected] and actions that he intends to launch a on to power. www.control-risks.com brutal crackdown in a bid to hold on to

1 Prepared by for

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list MANILA ATTACK KILLS FIVE MAURITANIA INCIDENTS Five people were killed and at least 13 others injured on 25 January when an explosive device detonated on a bus in Makati, the main business district in Metro Manila. The The security forces on 1 February perpetrators have not been identified, though Mindanao-based extremist or extortionist reportedly seized a vehicle in the groups were south-western region of Trarza suspected of containing suspected members of responsibility. al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb According to official (QIM); the vehicle was reportedly investigations, one of three packed with explosives the device was that are believed to have entered manufactured from the country from Mali on 31 January. 81mm mortar shell On 2 February, a vehicle reportedly and triggered by a exploded outside the capital mobile phone; this Nouakchott after coming under type of device has fire from the security forces; three previously been used suspected extremists were killed by the Abu Sayyaf and a number of soldiers injured. Group (ASG), the Islamist extremist Despite a decline in successful Jemaah Islamiyah extremist attacks and kidnaps since and the Moro Islamic late 2009, the incidents suggest Liberation Front that entrenched regional extremist (MILF). networks are still actively seeking Investigators attend the scene of the attack in the Makati City district of Manila The ASG may have to carry out attacks in Mauritania. carried out the attack to remind the government of its presence in the city, though security In addition, the possible (though operations have largely restricted it to the southern provinces of Sulu and Basilan. The unconfirmed) use of car bombs security forces are also investigating any link to a terrorist threat that prompted Western suggests an increase in the governments to revise travel advisories in November 2010. The ‘al-Khobar’ gang, which is sophistication of the terrorist threat. linked to the ASG and thought to have previously attacked buses and stations in Mindanao, While the first spate of extremist is also being investigated. attacks in Mauritania in 2007-08 were crude shooting attacks, they were followed in 2009 by a suicide- bomb attack using an explosive vest GREECE ARREST in Nouakchott and an attempted Police on 13 February announced that they had arrested Ghaleb Taleb, a Lebanese- car-bomb attack against a military Palestinian national suspected of belonging to Islamist extremist group Fatah al-Islam, barracks in Nema, near the border following a report in Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera that he was residing in the capital with Mali, in July 2010. Athens. Officials said that they had been aware of Taleb’s presence in the country and that The security forces on 29-30 he had been under surveillance for some time. Plans to arrest Taleb were brought forward January reportedly fired on a convoy following the media coverage in Italy, amid fears that he might flee. of three vehicles near the south- The suggestion that Taleb was planning an attack in Greece or elsewhere in Europe from a eastern town of Nema. Security base in Athens is credible, but the report offered little evidence to support such an assertion forces on the same night also and appears to have been based on leaked information from an alleged accomplice who mistakenly shot and killed a civilian was arrested in Lebanon. Overall, the likelihood of an Islamist extremist attack in Greece driving what they believed was a is low compared with other European countries and the newspaper is likely to have suspect vehicle, echoing a similar exaggerated the likelihood of an attack. The cross-border nature of international terrorism accidental shooting of a French also suggests that any attack that Taleb may have been planning would be as likely to take national in Nouakchott in 2008. place elsewhere in Europe as in Greece.

2 Prepared by for

Kuwait but very few, if any, in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. While poverty, rising inflation and unemployment among nationals are present in most states and likely to become a growing issue, native populations have too much to lose to risk major instability. In addition, migrant workers have little stake in the countries’ futures and would find it very hard to organise on a large scale.

Protests in Yemen will continue in the coming months, particularly around parliamentary elections scheduled for April, though for now they appear unlikely to gather sufficient momentum to threaten President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s hold on power. Despite his lack of popularity, Saleh continues to be perceived by many, including much of the mainstream opposition, as the only figure capable of preventing the fragile country from Anti-government protesters march to Pearl Roundabout in the Bahraini capital Manama collapsing into chaos.

POURING FUEL ON THE FIRE unresponsiveness has made rioting Unrest in Jordan will continue but is unlikely one of the few effective tools of public to lead to the departure of King Abdullah in The unrest currently sweeping the Middle accountability, and something of a tradition. the near term. While both Transjordanians East and North Africa has highlighted the While the regime has been able to and Palestinians harbour grievances toward challenges facing most regional countries. weather previous major domestic unrest, the regime, fears among the Transjordanian Much of the Arab world faces deep socio- the departure in the coming years of the community that a major shake-up would economic concerns associated with rapid country’s ‘independence-era’ generation lead to a Palestinian takeover have for now urbanisation and a young, unemployed could erode elite solidarity and lead to ensured that their demands remain issue- population; added to this is the near- deeper changes in the political system. focused. However, the authorities’ limited universal prevalence of authoritarian financial resources mean that their room for regimes that actively exclude populations Regional unrest appears to be encouraging manoeuvre to quell unrest is limited. from involvement in public affairs, restrict politically motivated unrest and rioting in freedom of expression and rely on brute Morocco; further outbreaks are likely in light Sudan is currently feeling the shockwaves strength to remain in power Combined with of widespread socio-economic problems from Tunisia as it enters a transition period widespread corruption and cronyism, the such as high youth unemployment and poor that will culminate in independence for exclusion of major segments of populations housing. Although rioting has been unusual southern Sudan. An upcoming drop in oil from the political process is fuelling in the country in recent years, incidents revenues is pushing the northern authorities growing frustration and resentment towards across the country in recent weeks suggest to cut subsidies on basic staples in a incumbent regimes. that regional events could be moving the context of crippling debt and an ailing local country in the direction of neighbouring currency. As global food prices continue to REGIONAL ‘HOT SPOTS’ Algeria, where rioting is more common. rise, it seems only a matter of time before northern states experience major episodes Algeria, a rich hydrocarbons-producing Recent developments in Bahrain appear of unrest. This could threaten President country that is marred by high to have inspired many groups in the Gulf Omar al-Bashir’s control by providing unemployment and mediocre economic states to demand change. The scale of competitors in the ruling elite with the development, is likely to prove susceptible protests will vary from country to country, chance to grab power. to further unrest in the near future, with larger mobilisations in Bahrain and not least because the government’s

3 Prepared by for

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list Africa

Côte d’Ivoire: At least three people were killed and several others injured on 19 February when security forces loyal to disputed incumbent Laurent Gbagbo opened fire on supporters of presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara in the commercial capital Abijdan.

Gabon: At least 20 people were injured on 29 January when riot police forcibly dispersed around 5,000 protesters in the capital Libreville. The unrest occurred after the crowd burnt TO WATCH tyres and threw stones at police, who responded by firing tear gas. Côte d’Ivoire: Rumoured discontent among the security Nigeria: Gunmen on 28 January shot dead All Nigeria People’s Party (ANP) gubernatorial forces over the payment of only candidate Modu Fannami Gubio, along with six others, in Borno state capital Maiduguri. partial salaries in January has Radical Islamist sect Boko Haram on 2 February claimed responsibility and threatened ‘all- increased the risk of mutinies or out war’ against the federal government. even coup attempts in the coming weeks. Rwanda: A grenade explosion on 28 January in the Remera suburb of the capital Kigali killed at least three people and injured about 25 others. Several vehicles and a nearby shop were damaged in the attack.

Zimbabwe: Supporters of President Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) on 7 February looted foreign-owned shops in the capital Harare. Looters chanted slogans denouncing foreign control of the national economy.

Americas

Bolivia: President Evo Morales on 12 February was forced to cancel a public event in Oruro when protesting miners set off dynamite and firecrackers. Protesters also temporarily blocked Viru Viru International Airport (VVI) in Santa Cruz, an opposition stronghold. The protests were related to food shortages and rising prices.

Colombia: The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) leftist guerrilla group TO WATCH FARC was blamed for bomb attacks on 7 and 8 February against the Transandino pipeline, Haiti: The delayed presidential which transports oil from the Orito fields in Putumayo to the Pacific port of Tumaco. The second-round run-off takes place attacks took place near Puerres municipality in the south-western department of Narino. on 20 March. The threat of election- The pipeline’s pump system was damaged, though exports were unaffected. related unrest has yet to subside, and violent demonstrations could Haiti: Hundreds of protesters on 7 February gathered outside the Presidential Palace at occur both in advance of the vote Champ de Mars plaza in the capital Port-au-Prince to call for the immediate resignation and in its aftermath. Such protests of President René Préval. Protesters set fire to tyres, threw stones at UN vehicles and would be exacerbated in the event attempted to breach security cordons surrounding the palace; police responded with tear that ousted former president Jean- gas and warning shots. Bertrand Aristide were to return. Mexico: Reports on 21 February indicated that at least 53 people, including police officers, had been killed in cartel-related incidents in the city of Ciudad Juárez (Chihuahua state) on 17-20 February.

4 Prepared by for

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list Asia

Cambodia/Thailand: The Cambodian and Thai militaries on 4 February exchanged fire in a disputed border area close to the Preah Vihear temple, killing five people. Although the two countries agreed to a ceasefire on 5 February, they were again involved in a series of minor skirmishes on 15-16 February; no-one was injured. TO WATCH Pakistan: Protests are likely to India: A large number of students affiliated to the Telangana Political Joint Action accompany the hearing on 14 Committee (TPJAC) from 22 February clashed for several successive days with police March of a case against a US in Hyderabad, the capital of Andhra Pradesh. Protesters set vehicles and a train on fire, consulate employee for allegedly vandalised a local railway station and threw stones at a police station and local businesses. murdering two local nationals.

Indonesia: Protesters on 8 February rioted and burnt three churches in the town of Temanggung in Central Java in response to the sentencing of a Christian man standing trial for distributing material insulting Islam.

Papua New Guinea: Five people were reportedly killed in mid-February in separate clashes between highlands ethnic groups in the capital Port Moresby. The attacks, all of which occurred close to Gordon Market, are believed to have taken place in revenge for previous incidents.

5 Prepared by for

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list Europe

Germany: Riot police on 2 February clashed with more than 1,000 protesters in the Friedrichshain district of the capital Berlin while attempting to clear the Liebig 14 apartment of squatters. Left-wing youths blocked traffic for more than two hours at a busy intersection in support of the tenants. Eight police officers were injured, and 32 people were arrested. KEY DATE Greece: The authorities on 10 February declared a state of emergency in Keratea municipality (East Attica prefecture), in response to a series of violent protests against the Italy: There is a low risk of clashes government’s plan to construct landfill sites in the area. A demonstration by at least 3,000 during gatherings associated with a people against alleged police heavy-handedness the previous day turned violent after nationwide strike by immigrants on police fired tear gas at participants. 1 March.

Russia: Police officers on 19 February defused three bombs in a car parked near a hotel in the Elbrus mountain area in the Kabardino-Balkaria region of the North Caucasus. An explosion occurred on the preceding day on a cable-car system on Mount Elbrus, causing extensive damage but no injuries.

Ten people, including three security personnel, were killed on 15 February when the security forces clashed with suspected Islamist militants in the Stavropol region near the border with Karachay-Cherkessia. Meanwhile, two police officers were killed and 27 others injured in suicide attacks on the preceding day in Dagestan. A bombing on 26 January killed four people and injured six others outside a café in the town of Khasavyurt (Dagestan).

Switzerland: Police in the eastern town of Davos on 29 January clashed with approximately 120 demonstrators who were attempting to disrupt the 41st annual World Economic Forum. Protesters threw projectiles at riot police, who fired rubber bullets and water cannon in response.

maximise disruption and the number of more clearly with the global jihadist In- depth civilian casualties. Islamist militants have movement. Russia is likely to intensify its explicitly indicated that they consider co-ordination with Western agencies in RUSSIA Russian civilians to be equally valid anti-terrorism efforts as a result. A suicide bomb was detonated at around targets as the authorities because of their The attacks conducted against major 16.30 (local time) on 24 January in the indirect support for the continued security domestic targets beyond the North international arrivals area of the country’s presence in the North Caucasus and Caucasus in 2009-11 confirm that the main international aviation hub, Moscow repression of the Muslim communities rebels have regained significant capability Domodedovo airport; 36 people were based there. after suffering a series of setbacks in killed in the incident, and 100 others The focus on a target with a highly the mid-2000s. The movement has were injured. Leader of the Islamist international profile – resulting in developed a more jihadist motivation, militant insurgency in the North Caucasus several foreign casualties – adds a new reducing its emphasis on traditional Doku Umarov claimed responsibility dimension to the domestic terrorism separatist aspirations. Umarov in 2007 for the attack in an online posting. The campaign. The fact that President called for the establishment of a so-called authorities subsequently identified a Dmitry Medvedev deferred by two days Caucasus emirate to be ruled by Sharia 20-year-old man from Ingushetia as the his plans to participate in the World (Islamic law). perpetrator, and arrested his brother and Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland) sister. compounded the impact of the attack. The attack confirms the militants’ strategy The terrorists were probably seeking to of focusing on ‘soft’ targets (protected by optimise the visibility and impact of the relatively low security), while seeking to attack as an attempt to link their struggle

6 Prepared by for

Bahrain: At least four protesters were killed and a number of others injured in the capital Manama on 17 February when security forces raided Pearl Roundabout, which had become a focus for anti-government protests in the city, in the early hours of the morning. Riot police used tear gas and batons to disperse up to 2,000 protesters.

Egypt: Hosni Mubarak on 11 February resigned as president following 18 days of mass TO WATCH protests during which a spontaneous and peaceful uprising quickly spread around Egypt’s Bahrain: Although a demonstration largest urban centres. Mubarak had ruled the country since 1981. With the exception of the and funerals on 22 February troubled northern Sinai peninsula, the only serious violence occurred when riot police used passed off peacefully, further force in an attempt to disperse opposition supporters in the capital Cairo and when pro- political gatherings can be Mubarak groups attacked pro-democracy activists. anticipated in the coming days and will entail a credible risk of violence. Jordan: At least eight people were injured on 18 February during anti-government Although no fresh violence has demonstrations in the capital Amman. Between 600 and 2,000 people, who had gathered been reported since 19 February, in the city centre to protest against rising food prices and to call for constitutional reforms, the security situation remains fluid. were reportedly attacked by government supporters with sticks and rocks, before the police intervened to disperse the crowd. The disturbances came on the seventh consecutive Friday of protests in the country.

Morocco: Peaceful political protests across the country on 20 February were followed by outbreaks of rioting and vandalism in some areas, including an arson attack on a bank in the northern city of al-Hoceima that killed five people. Further incidents reportedly occurred on 21 February in suburbs of Fes, as well as in the small northern towns of Ait Bouayach and Imzourne. Protesters on 19 February attacked the offices of a French utilities company and a French bank in the northern city of Tangier.

Yemen: Protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh on 23 February continued for an 11th consecutive day in the capital Sanaa, the southern port city of Aden and the southern city of Taiz. Participants appear determined to continue to protest despite intimidation and violence by pro-government activists and clampdowns by the security forces.

on 22 February swore in a new cabinet and activists intend to organise further In- depth that included some opposition figures. demonstrations to call for Shafiq’s While the new cabinet includes a number departure. EGYPT of nominal opposition figures, two are Nevertheless, many Egyptians currently The security environment has been members of legal opposition parties appear satisfied with the pace of the relatively calm entering the final days of which have a history of colluding with the transitional process and are sympathetic a tumultous month, though protests and Mubarak regime.The appointments have to the military’s calls for a return to industrial action continue to periodically angered some opposition activists, who normality. The level of attendance and disrupt movement around the capital view such figures as relics of the pre- tone of a protest planned for 25 February Cairo and in other cities. There have also uprising era and therefore inappropriate will provide a useful indicator of overall been anecdotal reports of an increase representatives of the grassroots public sentiment towards the transitional in crime, which would tally with reports mobilisation that led to Mubarak’s process to date. that normal police activity remains overthrow. severely disrupted. A number of senior Opposition activists have also criticised police officials have been removed, while the retention of Mubarak allies in key the lower ranks have staged strikes positions, particularly Prime Minister and protests against their superiors, Ahmed Shafiq, who was close to the who they claim ordered them to attack former president. The make-up of the demonstrators during the uprising. new cabinet has been interpreted by Leader of the ruling Higher Military some opposition members as a sign that Council Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi the military is not fulfilling its obligations,

7 Prepared by for

Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list