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Political Transition in Kyrgystan

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Political Transition in Kyrgystan POLITICAL TRANSITION IN KYRGYZSTAN: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS 11 August 2004 Asia Report N°81 Osh/Brussels TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. KYRGYZ DEMOCRACY: A SHORT HISTORY ..................................................... 2 III. DYNAMICS OF TRANSITION I: THE AKAEV PRESIDENCY............................ 4 A. PRESIDENT AKAEV................................................................................................................4 1. The political system: rhetoric and reality ..................................................................5 2. Corruption..................................................................................................................6 B. THE FAMILY .........................................................................................................................7 C. GROUPS AROUND THE PRESIDENT .........................................................................................8 D. THE NEW GENERATION ......................................................................................................10 E. BUSINESS ELITE..................................................................................................................11 IV. DYNAMICS OF TRANSITION II: THE OPPOSITION ........................................ 13 A. FOR PEOPLE'S POWER .........................................................................................................13 B. SOUTHERN DEPUTIES..........................................................................................................14 C. KURMANBEK BAKIEV .........................................................................................................14 D. KULOV AND THE NORTH .....................................................................................................14 E. THE CIVIC UNION FOR FAIR ELECTIONS..............................................................................15 V. DYNAMICS OF TRANSITION III: SOCIETY AND THE ELECTORATE ....... 16 A. WHAT VOTERS WANT ........................................................................................................16 B. POTENTIAL UNREST ............................................................................................................17 C. REGIONAL ASPECTS - NORTH VS. SOUTH?.............................................................................17 D. ETHNIC MINORITIES............................................................................................................18 VI. LOCAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ................................................... 19 A. ALGA KYRGYZSTAN!..........................................................................................................20 B. OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES.................................................................................................20 C. CONFLICT SITUATIONS........................................................................................................21 D. REGIONAL ASPECTS............................................................................................................22 VII. PRESIDENTIAL SCENARIOS .................................................................................. 23 A. SUCCESSION........................................................................................................................25 B. A FAIR CONTEST ................................................................................................................27 C. FINANCE .............................................................................................................................27 VIII. STATE CONTROL AND THE ELECTORAL PROCESS ..................................... 28 A. THE AUTHORITARIAN FEUDAL STATE.................................................................................28 B. THE SECURITY FORCES .......................................................................................................29 C. FALSIFYING ELECTIONS ......................................................................................................29 1. Political pressure......................................................................................................30 2. Tricks of the trade....................................................................................................31 D. CORRUPTION.......................................................................................................................32 IX. MINIMISING FRAUD ................................................................................................ 33 A. IMPROVING ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES................................................................................33 B. VOTING...............................................................................................................................34 C. MONITORING ......................................................................................................................35 1. Domestic observers..................................................................................................35 2. International observers.............................................................................................35 D. THE ROLE OF NGOS ...........................................................................................................35 E. MEDIA ................................................................................................................................36 F. DISPUTE RESOLUTION.........................................................................................................37 X. THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE ................................................................................ 38 A. RUSSIA AND THE U.S. .........................................................................................................38 B. EUROPEAN UNION...............................................................................................................38 C. UNITED NATIONS................................................................................................................39 D. OSCE.................................................................................................................................39 E. DONORS/IFIS ......................................................................................................................39 XI. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 40 APPENDICES A. MAP OF KYRGYZSTAN ..................................................................................................................41 B. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................42 C. ICG REPORTS AND BRIEFING PAPERS ON ASIA SINCE 2001 ..........................................................43 D. ICG BOARD MEMBERS .................................................................................................................45 ICG Central Asia Report N°81 11 August 2004 POLITICAL TRANSITION IN KYRGYZSTAN: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Kyrgyzstan's society has become more mature since The opposition is divided and in many cases independence but its government more authoritarian. dependent on the regime, its members making Parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005 offer implicit deals over parliamentary representation or the chance of a democratic transfer of power that other advantages. Society has changed significantly would be an example for all Central Asia. If President since the last elections in 2000 and in many places is Askar Akaev leaves office and allows candidates to highly politicised, but it is still not well-educated in compete fairly, it will be an historic moment for the democratic process and often favours clan Kyrgyzstan and its less democratic neighbours. If he leaders over issue-based politicians. Local elections tries to retain power, directly or indirectly, in in October 2004, a first guide to the new electorate, fraudulent elections, serious unrest is possible, and could throw up some surprises for the regime. 2005 could mark the end of the region's democratic experiment. Prospects are finely balanced, and the President Akaev will attempt to ensure that loyal international community can help tip the balance. candidates win a majority of seats at parliamentary elections in February 2005. A reliable parliament Kyrgyzstan has had a troubled transition from Soviet would give him a base for further moves to assert rule, although it has retained a relatively liberal control over the political process. These elections political environment, with some independent media will be highly contested, with considerable pressure and opposition representation in parliament. But on opposition candidates. There is potential for previous elections have seen extensive malpractice, conflict around controversial races if the government and the Akaev family has come to dominate both seeks to rig results. politics and the economy, making any transition difficult. The constitution does not allow Akaev to The parliamentary elections will set the stage for a run again, and he has said publicly he will not. presidential election in October 2005. Their results However, scenarios are under
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