Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

A Technical Assessment of Threats and Opportunities of the Maya Mountains Massif April, 2008

A Technical Assessment of Threats and Opportunities of the Maya Mountains Massif

April, 2008

Maya Mountains Massif

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

Acknowledgments

Over 100 participants took part in this Technical Assessment...and we would like to thank all of them ‐ those who participated in the CAP workshops, associated technical meetings, community meetings and RAPPAM process ‐ for ensuring that this output is as accurate as possible, based on the data available.

In particular, we would like to thank the other members of the Core Planning Team for their continued support and input:

Core Planning Team

Forest Department Wilber Sabido Hannah St. Luce Friends for Conservation and Rafael Manzanero Development Belize Audubon Society Dominique Lizama Institute of Archaeology Jaime Awe TNC (Belize) Natalie Rosado TNC (Guatemala) Rudy Herrera CONAP Maria Alicia Burgos Guatemalan Consultant Raquel Siguenza CAP coach Estuardo Secaira

...those community, public and private sector individuals who contributed towards the outputs of the RAPPAM and CAP Threat Assessment and Situation Analysis workshops.

...and, as always, Adam Lloyd, for producing the maps

A full list of participants is included within the Summary – A Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif report

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif – Threats and Opportunities Prepared by: Paul and Zoe Walker

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

A Technical Assessment of Threats and Opportunities of the Maya Mountains Massif

Introduction

This report is one of a series of five produced for the Forest Department of Belize and The Nature Conservancy (Belize), and summarise the current knowledge and status of the Maya Mountains Massif, and provide recommendations towards more effective management through system-level direction, strategies and programmes:

1. Summary – A Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif System

2. Management Capacities within the Maya Mountains Massif System

3. A Technical Assessment of the Biodiversity of the Maya Mountains Massif System

4. A Technical Assessment of the Threats and Opportunities of the Maya Mountains Massif System

5. Socio-Economic Analysis of the Maya Mountains Massif System

The Technical Assessment of Threats and Opportunities of the Maya Mountains Massif uses both the Conservation Action Planning process (TNC, 2007) and the RAPPAM1 assessment (WWF, 2003) to assess impacts on the biodiversity of the Maya Mountains Massif, identifying critical threats at both site and system level, and providing a means for ranking and prioritization.

It investigates both national and bi-national threats and issues, and develops recommendations based on the outputs of the assessments. This is further strengthened through the inputs from a Situation Analysis stakeholder workshop, which also identified key stakeholders and opportunities linked to the biodiversity and cultural conservation targets, and the threats that impact them.

1 RAPPAM: Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management (WWF, 2003)

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

Contents

1.0 Conservation Action Planning: Assessment of Critical Threats 1 1.1 CAP Assessment of Critical Threats 3

2.0 Critical Threats to Biodiversity 7 2.1 Clearance within the Maya Mountains Massif 7 2.2 Unsustainable harvesting of xate by illegal Guatemalan xateros 10 2.3 Subsistence hunting by illegal Guatemalan xateros 10 2.4 Other Highlighted Threats 11

3.0 Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Areas Management 19 (RAPPAM) Process 3.1 Introduction 19 3.2 Critical threats Identified under the RAPPAM process 19 3.3 Summary of Critical Impacts 24 3.4 Impacts per Protected Area 26

4.0 Specific Threats to Cultural Targets 31 4.1 Strategic Responses to threats to Cultural Resources 32

5.0 Situation Analysis 33

6.0 Strategic Recommendations 44

Annexes Annex One: Calibrated RAPPAM Assessment Form Annex Two: RAPPAM Results per impact Annex Three: CAP Threat Assessment

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

Maps

Map 1 Agricultural Incursions into the Maya Mountains Massif 9 Map 2 Land Clearance for Agriculture, adjacent to Cockscomb Basin Wildlife 13 Sanctuary Map 3 Connectivity indicators for the Maya Mountains Massif 15 Map 4 Connectivity over the Hummingbird Highway (Sibun Forest Reserve to 16 Manatee Forest / Runaway Creek / Peccary Hills) Map 5 Connectivity over the Western highway (Manatee Forest / Runaway Creek / 17 Peccary Hills to Rio Bravo) Map 6 Contiguity with broadleaf forest in Complejo III, Guatemala 18 Map 7 Dam inundation areas within the Maya Mountains Massif 21

Figures

Figure 1 RAPPAM Scope of Pressures and Threats across the protected areas of the Maya 22 Mountains Massif System Figure 2 Combined, Averaged ‘Degree of Pressure and Threat’ Averaged Scores per 26 Protected Area within the Maya Mountains Massif systems Figure 3 Major Pressures / Threats on the five most impacted protected areas of the 28 Maya Mountains Massif system (RAPPAM Assessment, 2007) Figure 4 Comparison of ‘Degree of Pressure and Threat’ Averaged Scores per 29 Protected Area within the Maya Mountains Massif systems (RAPPAM Assessment, 2007) Figure 5 Major Pressures / Threats per Protected Area Category 29

Tables

Table 1 Summary of Critical Threats 24 Table 2 Summary of major pressures and threats on the five most heavily impacted 27 protected areas (RAPPAM Assessment, 2007)

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

1.0 Conservation Action Planning: Assessment of Critical Threats

Introduction Participants:

Critical Threats Assessment Mesoamerica has been recognised under several recent ecoregional th 17 July, 2007 planning initiatives as one of the richest biodiversity areas on this planet, ranking second only to the tropical Andes in terms of diversity and Forest Department endemism (CEPF, 2004). Despite contributing only one percent to the Wilber Sabido world’s terrestrial land area, Mesoamerica is thought to have seventeen David Perera percent of all known terrestrial species, with the highest diversity recorded Raul Chun globally for reptiles and second highest for amphibians (CEPF, 2004). This Saul Cruz species richness and diversity is due in part to the geological history of the Percival Cho area, forming a transition zone between three biogeographically distinct German Novelo regions – the Nearctic, Neotropical and the Caribbean. Tim Godoy Darrel Novelo Whilst Belize, with its relatively low topography, lacks many of the endemic Domingo Ruiz species found in high altitudes in the adjacent highland areas of Guatemala, Marcelo Windsor Honduras and Mexico, it is regionally important in its role in maintaining Lizandro Quiroz viable populations of many species considered threatened throughout their range, and providing a critical landscape function within Mesoamerica as Institute of Archaeology one of only a few remaining large, intact, contiguous forest blocks within the Wayne Moore region. The current low human population density and the network of natural George Thompson ecosystems within the protected areas system has resulted in Belize Brian Woodye providing an important service in the maintenance of regional biodiversity. Co‐Management Agencies

Rafael Manzanero (FCD) Several key reports have recently been produced on the biodiversity of Derric Chan (FCD) Belize – the Protected Areas System Analysis and the Gap Analysis (both Clemente Pop (BMC) conducted as part of the National Protected Areas Policy and System Plan, Sipriano Conti (BMC) NPAPSP, 2005), the identification of Key Biodiversity Areas (Meerman, 2007 Ivis Chan (BAS) – draft), and national reports – the National Biodiversity Strategy, the Allen Genus (BAS) National Protected Areas System Plan and Policy and the findings from the Nicacio Coc (BAS) National Biological Corridors Programme. Each of these assessments Dale Gomez highlight the critical importance of the Maya Mountains as one of three Oswaldo Sabido (WD) national priority areas important in maintaining these high levels of biodiversity. The functioning ecosystems and intact natural vegetation with Technical Input relatively few human impacts; the range of ecosystems over an altitudinal Jan Meerman (BTFS) gradient, with connectivity from mountain ridge to the coastal areas and the Boris Averalo (BTFS) Belize Barrier Reef, highlighted for its importance for marine conservation in Clifford Martinez (MAF) Mesoamerica; and the importance of the environmental services – the Ed Boles (Nature Works) watershed functions, the carbon sequestration functions, the hydrological Nicodemos Bol (Las Cuevas) processes – all add to the importance of these protected areas. Also Nick Wicks (YCT) recognised is its importance as a regional priority under The Nature Conservancy ecoregional planning, and as part of the Selva Maya Corridor CONAP identified under the CEPF ecoregional planning for northern Mesoamerica Sergio Guzman as the second largest contiguous area of tropical rainforest in the Americas, Jose M. Palacios after the Amazon (CEPF, 2004). Basilio Lopez Raquel Siguenza (Consultant)

The presence of large numbers of jaguars, considered until recently to be at TNC / Consultants natural carrying capacity within the protected areas system, suggests that Natalie Rosado (TNC‐Belize) the trophic structure has remained largely intact, with viable populations of Rudy Herrera (TNC‐Guatemala) prey species. This, however, is changing as pressures, particularly from Estuardo Secaira (TNC_CAP) Guatemala, for natural resources and land drives inhabitants from border Maria Elena Molina (TNC‐CAP) Zoe Walker (Wildtracks) Wildtracks,Paul Walker 2008….1 (Wildtracks) Adam Lloyd (Wildtracks) Nellie Catzim (Wildtracks) Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

communities to enter Belize, through much of the remote Chiquibul and Columbia River forest regions, and harvest these resources to the point of depletion. Increased population pressures and higher levels of poverty within the Belize southern coastal plain communities of Toledo District, are also identified as resulting in a high dependence on the natural resources of the Maya Mountains Massif, with low incomes, low employment opportunities, poor access to education and reliance on subsistence agriculture, being highlighted as primary causes.

Also of importance are the archaeological and cultural resources of the Maya Mountains Massif - in general, the Maya Mountains Massif represents one of the most poorly studied archaeological regions of Belize, as a result of poor accessibility, the rugged nature of a great part of the terrain, and the challenging logistics to conduct archaeological research in this mountainous region. However, current knowledge suggests that the area was once important to the Maya, with the establishment of Caracol, a major site thought to have been occupied from about the end of the Middle Preclassic period (400 B.C.) through to the Terminal Classic 800-900 A.D., covering more than 25 square kilometers (Chase and Chase, 2001). Satellite communities such as Minanha also sprung up in the more fertile areas of the system, with associated agricultural terracing. Cave systems of ceremonial significance still contain artifacts placed there by the ancient Maya. The more rugged, less fertile areas were also considered to be important for a variety of raw materials that were exploited by the ancient Maya, including vast deposits of granite, volcanics, volcaniclastics, mudstone, siltstone, limestone, pyrites, slate and hematite for mirrors; high quality clays for ceramics; and a host of other minerals for pigments. This considerable resource diversity provided the Maya of the south with substantial economic benefits, with trade and exchange playing an important role in the rise of so many regional centers along the foothills of the Maya Mountain. In more recent times, however, there have been an increasing number of impacts on the Maya Mountains Massif, despite the rugged terrain and remoteness. The assessment of critical threats took part in two phases – first as part of the Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Areas Management (RAPPAM) developed under the WWF’s Forests for Life programme (WWF, 2003). This provided an in- depth assessment of site-specific stresses and threats, with input from protected area managers, co- managers and local stakeholder participants, analysing how impacts differ in scope and severity across the system. This then fed into the landscape-scale assessment of threats to the Maya Mountains Massif as a system, using the TNC Conservation Action Planning process, through the CAP2 workshop, held on 17th July, 2007. The TNC CAP processes allows for an analysis of how threats affect the selected biodiversity targets, enabling a prioritization for strategic actions. The two protocols compliment each other’s outputs, and together provide a comprehensive view of past, present and perceived impacts to the Maya Mountains Massif.

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1.1 CAP Assessment of Critical Threats Conservation Action Planning Assessment of Critical Threats for The RAPPAM process identified fourteen threats considered critical to the Maya Mountains Massif (CAP2) at least one of the fourteen protected areas of the Maya Mountains Massif, each being assessed as a ‘pressure’ (past impact on the Conservation Target Threat Status: system), and ‘threat’ (the future potential impact). Results of pressure and threat occurrence across the system show that five major impacts Very High are considered to be relevant to all the protected areas: Illegal Hunting, Unsustainable / illegal Xate harvesting, Harvesting of Forest products (including xate)

Non-Timber Products (excluding xate), Unsustainable / illegal High Logging and Mining / Oil Exploration. Pine forest and savanna A summary of the results from the RAPPAM process were presented Aquatic and riparian ecosystems Upper elevation amphibians at the CAP2 workshop, to provide an overview of the site specific Subterranean systems threats identified by each of the protected area management and co- management bodies of the Maya Mountains Massif. Medium

Broadleaf forest The CAP2 workshop focused on the Maya Mountains Massif system Jaguar as a whole, and assessed stresses and threats at both the technical Archaeological Sites and site levels, with representation from researchers, forestry, and both Aesthetic landscapes protected area management and field staff. The summary results from the planning process provide each conservation target with a threat ------status rating (Table 1). Critical Threats Only one conservation element is rated as Very High, reflecting the Forest clearance within the Maya particularly heavy pressure on xate from illegal harvesting for the Mountains Massif (illegal Guatemalan xate trade: agricultural incursions and settlement, dam inundation and Forest Products road construction) Unsustainable harvesting of xate by illegal Guatemalan xateros Four conservation targets are rated as High: Subsistence hunting by illegal Guatemala xateros

Pine Forest and Savanna Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems Medium Threats Upper Elevation Amphibians Fire Subterranean Systems Hydroelectricity systems Climate change Environmental pollution The remaining four conservation elements are rated as having a threat Southern Pine Bark Beetle status of Medium (Table 1). Chytrid fungus Unsustainable harvesting of xate – Belize concession holders The CAP process assesses the stress and the source of stress for Land use change in adjacent each conservation target, using the following definitions: areas Looting and vandalism

Stress – The impaired aspects of conservation targets that result directly or indirectly from human activities (e.g., low population size, reduced extent of Overall threat status: High forest system; reduced river flows; increased sedimentation; lowered

groundwater table level). Generally equivalent to degraded key ecological attributes (e.g., habitat loss).

Source of Stress (Direct Threat) – The proximate activities or processes that directly have caused, are causing or may cause stresses and thus the destruction, degradation and/or impairment of focal conservation targets (e.g.,logging).

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Outputs from the CAP2 workshop assessed Rating Criteria for Stresses threats and provided a means of prioritization

Severity - The level of damage to the conservation target that can of conservation actions and resources reasonably be expected within 10 years under current circumstances (i.e., towards those impacts identified as critical given the continuation of the existing situation). threats. This was achieved through analyzing the stresses in terms of scope and severity, • Very High: The threat is likely to destroy or eliminate the conservation target over some portion of the target's occurrence at and the sources of stress through the site. assessment of contribution and irreversibility.

• High: The threat is likely to seriously degrade the conservation target Three critical threats, were identified, being over some portion of the target's occurrence at the site. rated as High using the CAP process: • Medium: The threat is likely to moderately degrade the conservation target over some portion of the target's occurrence at the site. Forest Clearance within the Maya • Low: The threat is likely to only slightly impair the conservation target Mountains Massif (Illegal over some portion of the target's occurrence at the site. agricultural incursions, and settlement, dam inundation, and Scope - The geographic scope of impact on the conservation target at the road construction) site that can reasonably be expected within 10 years under current circumstances (i.e., given the continuation of the existing situation). Unsustainable harvesting of xate • Very High: The threat is likely to be widespread or pervasive in its by illegal Guatemalan xateros scope and affect the conservation target throughout the target's occurrences at the site. The complete CAP threat assessment results are summarizedSubsistence in huntingthis document by illegal(Table 6) • High: The threat is likely to be widespread in its scope and affect the and presentedGuatemalan in full xateros in Annex Three. conservation target at many of its locations at the site.

• Medium: The threat is likely to be localized in its scope and affect the conservation target at some of the target's locations at the site.

• Low: The threat is likely to be very localized in its scope and affect the conservation target at a limited portion of the target's location at the site.

Rating Criteria for Sources of Stress

Contribution - The expected contribution of the source, acting alone, to the full expression of a stress (as determined in the stress assessment) under current circumstances (i.e., given the continuation of the existing management/conservation situation).

• Very High: The source is a very large contributor of the particular stress.

• High: The source is a large contributor of the particular stress.

• Medium: The source is a moderate contributor of the particular stress.

• Low: The source is a low contributor of the particular stress.

Irreversibility - The degree to which the effects of a source of stress can be restored.

• Very High: The source produces a stress that is not reversible (e.g., wetlands converted to a shopping center).

• High: The source produces a stress that is reversible, but not practically affordable (e.g., wetland converted to agriculture).

• Medium: The source produces a stress that is reversible with a reasonable commitment of resources (e.g., ditching and draining of wetland).

• Low: The source produces a stress that is easily reversible at relatively low cost (e.g., off-road vehicles trespassing in wetland). TNC, 2007 Wildtracks, 2008….4

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

Pine Forest Aquatic and Upper Overall Table 1: Summary Results Broadleaf Forest Archaeologi Aesthetic Subterranean and Riparian Elevation Jaguar Threat Threats Across Targets 1 - 15 Forest Products cal Sites Landscapes Sites Savanna Systems Amphibians Rank Forest clearance within MMM 1 (Agricultural Incursions / Dams Low High Medium - Very High Medium Low Low - High etc.) Unsustainable harvesting - 2 - - - - Very High - - - - High illegal Guatemalan xateros 3 Subsistence hunting (xateros) High - High - - Medium - - - High

4 Fire Low High Medium - - - - Low Low Medium

5 Hydroelectricity systems - - High - - - Low - - Medium Changes in weather patterns 6 - - - High - - - - - Medium (Climate change) 7 Environmental pollution - - - High - - - - - Medium Pests and diseases - Southern 8 - High ------Medium Pine Bark Beetle Pests and Diseases - Chytrid 9 - - - High - - - - - Medium Fungus Unsustainable harvesting - 10 - - - - High - - - - Medium Belize xate concession holders Land use change in adjacent 11 areas (human settlements, Medium - - - - Medium - Low - Medium farming, trails etc.) 12 Looting and vandalism ------Medium - Medium Medium

13 Local hunting Low - Medium - - Low - - - Medium

14 Uncontrolled visitation ------Low Low Medium Low Unsustainable and Illegal 15 Low Medium - - Low - - - - Low logging 16 Roads / infrastructure ------Low Medium - Low Threat Status for Targets and Medium High High High Very High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Project

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Pine Forest Aquatic and Upper Overall Threats Across Targets 16 – 21 Broadleaf Forest Archaeologi Aesthetic Subterranean and Riparian Elevation Jaguar Threat (continued) Forest Products cal Sites Landscapes Sites Savanna Systems Amphibians Rank Mines and minerals - 17 ------Medium - Low exploration/extraction Unsustainable harvesting - 18 - - - - Medium - - - - Low Belizean xateros 19 Weathering ------Medium - - Low

20 Pet trade - Low - - - Low - - - Low Killing of jaguars in areas of 21 - - - - - Low - - - Low human conflict 21 Tourism development - - Low ------Low Threat Status for Targets and Medium High High High Very High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Project

Table 1: CAP2 Output - Summary of CAP Threat Assessment

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2.0 Critical Threats to Biodiversity

2.1 Clearance within the Maya Mountains Massif (Agricultural Incursions, Settlements, Dam Inundations)

Agricultural Incursions

Three sources of agricultural incursions within the Maya Mountains were identified:

Large-scale lal nd clearance along the Belize / Guatemala border by communities in the Peten, Guatemala Clearance for citrus in the valleys of the Sibun / Sittee Forest Reserves Clearance for small scale agriculture in the Vaca and Columbia River Forest Reserve

Large-scale land clearance along the Belize / Guatemala border

Agricultural incursions along the Belize / Guatemala border by Guatemalan farmers has been an ongoing concern, with 280 acres (110ha) of forest clearance for agriculture being first noted in the Caracol and Rio Blanco areas in 1987. In 1990, incursions spread to within half a mile of Caracol, threatening both the biodiversity and eco-tourism potential – Belize responded, allowing farmers to harvest their crops before removing the farming camps. This was of little deterent, however, as by 1994, the area cleared for farming had increased to 1,710 acres (690 ha) – a rate of increase of approximately 200 acres per year (FCD, October, 2007).

This trend has continued in more recent years, with considerable large-scale forest clearance for agriculture east of the Adjacency Zone, by farmers from communities in Peten, with at least 13,510 acres (5,470 ha) clearance for agriculture having been identified along the border area, in Caracol Archaeological Reserve, Chiquibul National Park and Columbia River Forest Reserve (FCD, 2007).

One of the root causes of the problem lies with the land ownership system in Guatemala, with large land holdings preventing small farmers migrating into the area from obtaining land, forcing them eastwards, into Chiquibul. There are also several parcels of land allocated by the Guatemala Government within Belize prior to the current agreements, where land ownership is still to be resolved within Guatemala. The long term border dispute between Guatemala and Belize, and weak governance and law enforcement in the southern Peten area, also exacerbate the situation.

The Belize Defence Force fly over the area on a semi-regular basis, but the information on agricultural incursions takes time to filter down to the management organizations, with a recognized need for better liaison. This has been consistently improving during Agricultural incursions – illegal the time frame of this project, with the recent construction of an farms in Chiquibul National Park Observation Post at Rio Blanco, and an increasing number of bi- (FCD, 2007) national patrols.

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Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

The probability of continuing agricultural incursions, (and the often Large Scale Land Clearance along associated logging incursions) is very high, as the farmers have few the Belize / Guatemala border other options open to them, and there is an apparent unwillingness to protect sovereign rights by the Government of Belize. However, the level of activity should decrease as the area is more effectively monitored, and Chiquibul National Park enforcement activities are actively implemented. 7,725 acres (3,126 ha) Monte los Olivos A set of recommended steps were proposed by FCD for restoring the Nueva Armenia integrity of the Maya Mountains Massif (FCD, October, 2007): Las Flores del Chiquibul

Vaca Forest Reserve • Establish a permanent presence on the southern edge of the Chiquibul National Park in the Rio Blanco area as soon as 4,000 acres possible. El Rondon Arenal Nuevo Paraiso • Obtain a labor force to include civilians to accelerate the destruction of the plantations. Caracol Archaeological Reserve

3,300 acres (1,337 ha) • Maintain the military presence in the area permanently, and El Retiro include representation from the police Nuevo Paraiso

Columbia River Forest Reserve • Upgrade the road so as to facilitate entrance of military personnel and ranger presence to Rio Blanco area for monitoring 2,485 acres (1,006 ha) and surveillance. El Retiro Nuevo Paraiso

• Request OAS for assistance in becoming more proactively involved with the community members of Monte Los Olivos in These figures are based on mapping regards to Governments position of “no tolerance”. of the total agricultural landscape – areas cleared for agriculture on a rotational basis, and adjacent forest • Institute more serious fines for any illegal Guatemalans found in impacted by agricultural fires. the area in order to demonstrate the firm steps being taken by the Government of Belize. Data from FCD, October, 2007; Meerman, 2007.

• Request CONAP for assistance in informing the community members of the infractions and the fines that can be imposed upon them under their participation in the bi-national workplan.

The majority of these recommendations are already being implemented.

Clearance for citrus in the valleys of the Sibun / Sittee Forest Reserves

The Sibun and Sittee River Forest Reserves are both highlighted as critical management gaps (RAPPAM, 2007), and are subjected to increasing pressure from agricultural incursions, as citrus plantations spread into the fertile river valleys. With no on-site management presence, no long-term management plans and few incentives for maintaining these two protected areas in their entirety, the boundaries are gradually being realigned to allow for the citrus incursions, despite the critical nature of Sibun Forest Reserve for connectivity of the Maya Mountains Massif with the Selva Maya forest block to the north.

Clearance for small-scale agriculture in the Vaca and Columbia River Forest Reserve

Politically-motivated pressure for land has resulted in land allocations within the Vaca Forest Reserve, following the increased ease of access with the construction of a road to the Mollejon Dam. Watershed integrity has been compromised with clearance to the edge of the Macal River. Allocations such as these are normally followed by dereservation of those parts of the protected area

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Stann Creek Valley Land allocations within Citrus expansion Vaca Forest Reserve

San Pedro Columbia and other southern Guatemalan agricultural communities incursions along border

Map 1: Agricultural Incursions into the Maya Mountains Massif

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2.2 Unsustainable Harvesting of Xate by Illegal Guatemalan Xateros

Illegal harvesting of xate leaves (Chamaedorea ernesti-augusti) and the associated hunting and looting activities, have become significant impacts on the biodiversity and cultural resources of much of the western portion of the Maya Mountains Massif. Reports from Guatemala suggest that harvesting of xate started as early as 1972, in the Rio Blanco area. Large scale xate harvesting is thought to have started in the Chiquibul in 1995, with xateros first being recorded in the Ceibo Chico area in 1996. By 2000, the number of xateros is considered to have leveled off, with between 1,000 and 1,500 xateros operating in the area since then.

The pressure comes primarily from Guatemala, where the US$6.2 million xate industry has been active for over 40 years, and is well established (IRG-USAID, 2006), providing palm leaves for the cut flower industry in the United States and Europe (Bridgewater et. al. 2006). On the Guatemala side of the border, xate populations have been significantly reduced through over-exploitation, exacerbated by the clearance of forest for large scale cattle ranches, encouraging xateros to cross the border and harvest in Belize’s forests.

Xateros are considered to be active throughout the Chiquibul area (National Park and Forest Reserve), where xate is present, (N. Uck, Xate being transported in CNP) Chiquibul (Las Cuevas) The professional xateros are known to divide the area into sections, and rotate harvesting, in an effort to maintain sustainability. However, many teams are active in the Chiquibul area, and include young people who are just learning the trade, and who will cut more than just the prime leaves, reducing sustainability. Sub-standard leaves are also cut to be added to the bundles to surround and protect the prime leaves, with the result that of a bundle of 40 leaves, possibly 25% or less are of sufficient quality for export.

Recovery time is considered to be relatively fast, with leaves re-growing in about 3 months after harvesting, if they are left to recover. However, viability of xate plant populations is considered to be heavily impacted by harvesting of seeds and, more recently, seedlings, for sale to xate plantations in Guatemala (FD, CONAP, 2007).

2.3 Subsistence Hunting by Illegal Guatemalan Xateros

Hunting in the Chiquibul forest is primarily linked to xatero activity (though a small number of sport hunters did at one time come into the area from San Ignacio using the logging trails, primarily during dry season). It is thought that the current pressure on game species from xatero activity is driving the wildlife further toward the mountainous areas in the south and east (C. Rosas, CNP), and reductions in white- lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) populations - a primary game species - have been noted, with populations in the Chiquibul area being reported to be estimated at 10% of former levels (N. Bol, Las Cuevas). This fall in numbers is also reflected in camera trap data, which indicates a sharp decline in white-lipped peccary trap events between 2002 and 2003 (M. Kelly), though until further data is available, it would be difficult to attribute this solely to xatero activity, as long-term migrations are also thought to occur by this species (Fragoso, 2004). Similar patterns are also being noted in other species, including jaguar, with an estimated decrease in jaguar densities (M. Kelly, pers. com.). Scarlet macaw feathers in xatero camp area, Chiquibul A number of species not traditionally hunted within Belize are also at risk NP (FCD) from xateros – remnants of parrots have been reported from xatero Wildtracks, 2008….10

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

campsites, including scarlet macaw (Ara macao) feathers, a species of national concern, with a population considered to be between 150 and 200 individuals (Jones, 2003; Gentle, pers. com., 2007), the endangered Baird’s tapir (IUCN, 2007) and the regionally vulnerable Spider Monkey (Ateles geoffroyi ssp. yucatanensis).

2.4 Other Highlighted Threats

Mining / Oil exploration/extraction

Of the entire area of the Maya Mountains Massif, the intrusive and meta-sedimentary rocks of the Maya Mountain Divide, bounded by volcanics to the south and Upper Cretaceous limestones to the north, are highlighted as of the greatest potential mineral interest, with the coastal plain Deep River Forest Reserve identified as the only potential petroleum exploration area (Table 7; Geology and Petroleum Department, pers. com.).

There has historically been a significant lack of communication and cohesive planning policies within the Ministry of Natural Resources, with extractive mining being permitted within a National Park which, under the National Protected Area System legislation, cannot be used for extractive purposes. Whilst identified here as a threat, mineral and oil exploration should also be recognized as an opportunity when identifying financial sustainability mechanisms.

Geology and Petroleum Protected Area Name Value Mineral Resources Department Sibun Forest Reserve Low Aggregate extraction Vaca Forest Reserve Dimension stone – granite, gneiss – metamorphic. Tiles, countertops etc. Mission Statement Low Limited information on minerals ‐ To accelerate the development of potential for some minerals Belize’s non‐renewable resources Chiquibul National Park High All minerals, gold, lead, zinc, base metals, through the creation of vibrant Chiquibul Forest Reserve heavy metals…need to be inventoried. Mineral and Petroleum Sectors, with High Steeper slopes. Intrusions, igneous areas. the assistance of private, national Lower areas not as interesting and international investors, Maya Mountain Forest Unknown cognizant of environmental costs, Reserve thereby improving the welfare of Bladen Nature Reserve Heavy metals, base metals. Little High Belizeans into the 21st Century information available Victoria Peak Natural Unknown Monument Sittee River Forest Fill materials – clays, metasedimenta Gold prospecting in the Ceibo Low Chico area of the Chiquibul Reserve Columbia River Forest Little Quartz Ridge – base metals, heavy National Park has been an Unknown ongoing activity since the late Reserve metals? 1980s, and continues under Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Unknown Boiton Minerals/Erin Ventures Sanctuary Inc. (under Ceiba Resources Caracol Archaeological Low Ltd.). The first exploration Reserve license was issued in 1999, and Deep River Forest Petroleum. Low for sand. Not draining High the operation has been slowly Reserve anywhere that has interesting aggregates increasing in size since the Mountain Pine Ridge Handicraft slate, garnets, semi‐precious High extension of the exploration Forest Reserve stones, dimension stone, barite (very license in 2004. The company Noj Kaax Me’en Eligio dense, used in drilling muds, fillers etc., has held prospecting licenses for Panti some ceramic industries. Handicraft four contiguous blocks, covering industry – slate ‐ because of accessibility. a total of 34km², and a mining Artisanal extraction license covering 38.85 hectares Table 7: Protected Area Value for Mineral and Petroleum Resources (Data: Geology and Petroleum Department, 2007) Wildtracks, 2008….11

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(96 acres), which has recently been renewed for another 5 years, and extended in September, 2007, to cover 160.25 hectares (396 acres), to Gold Production in the give the mining company mining rights to the total area of alluvial fan Chiquibul associated with the Ceibo Chico drainage system. Erin Ventures ‐ 2007 Update Current exploration methods are considered of low footprint and moderate impact, with digging and sifting of alluvial soils. The relatively small pits Commercial‐scale gold recovery created are refilled with the sieved soil, sediment load in the river is commenced in October, 2007 minimised where possible, and no chemicals are reported to be used in Production goal is 28,000 cubic the sieving process (Moore, pers. com.). A 2 km wide zone in the upper yds of material per month area of the drainage system is thought to contain the host rock for the Recovery rates average 0.48 residual gold in the drainage system (Erin Ventures, 2007), and the most gram of Au/cubic yds, worth recent amendments to the mining license allow for open pit and US$11.26 (at US$730/ounce Au) underground mining of any lode deposit discovered, following approval Direct recovery costs average from the Department of Geology and Petroleum of detailed mining plans. approx. US$1.96/cubic yds Pre‐production trials of gold To date, residual gold has been recovered in both the Ceibo Chico dredge recovered 448.8 oz of drainage and the Chiquibul drainage, which runs parallel, 2 km to the raw gold north. Down river, in Guatemala, gold extraction from the Chiquibul River 751.3 oz of raw gold has been is also currently being conducted. It is expected that gold prospecting in recovered in total since the Ceibo Chico area of the National Park will continue to be an ongoing exploration began activity, though the level of impact may well become much higher if Exploration is underway to exploration activities result in the location of the main source vein, the aim establish drill targets within the of current efforts. 2 km wide zone that appears to be the host for the alluvial gold being recovered Also of concern is the widening and upgrading of the old logging track into the Ceibo Chico area from the Caracol Road, increasing accessibility to the Chiquibul Forest area (both the National Park and the Forest Total Gold Recovered: 751.3 ounces

Reserve), and acting a barrier to some deep forest species, fragmenting www.erinvenutres.com, 2007 the broadleaf forest node.

Exploration permits were also granted to three other companies for 2004 (Allied International Minerals Ltd., Orion Ltd., and Pan African International Co. Ltd.) for the Chiquibul area, (Anderson, U.S. Geological Survey Minerals Yearbook - 2004), and a recent application for mineral prospecting across the Maya Mountains Massif has been submitted with particular interest in Little Quartz Ridge, within the Columbia River Forest Reserve.

Oil Exploration

Whilst the terrain and geology of the majority of the Maya Mountains Massif Deep is unsuitable for petroleum extraction, River Deep River Forest Reserve, the only Forest protected area to lie within the southern Reserve coastal plain, is encompassed within the oil prospecting concession of US Capital Energy Belize Ltd (Figure 2). Whilst current seismic survey activities are limited to the most southerly portion of the concession area, the potential for oil extraction throughout the concession area, including the southern portion of Deep River Forest Reserve, cannot be ignored.

Figure 2: US Capital License Area (Adapted from Meerman, 2006) Wildtracks, 2008….12

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Adjacent Land Use Change

Whilst land clearance is generally outside the protected areas, it has an impact on the state of the biodiversity within the boundaries, removing the buffer of forest that currently exists, and increasing access for illegal activities. This is occurring along the south / southeast facing boundaries of Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, for example, from Maya Mopan and Maya Centre area, all the way southwards to Trio, where political influence has resulted in dereservation of a portion of the adjacent Maya Mountain Forest Reserve for agriculture. With the limited resources available, logging and other activities in these buffer areas cannot closely monitored, with the high probability that there will be some incursions into the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, particularly in the more remote southern extension.

Map 2: Land clearance for Agriculture, adjacent to Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary

Fragmentation of Broadleaf Forest Connectivity

Whilst the broadleaf forest ecosystems of the Massif are believed to be generally sufficient in scope to fulfill minimum dynamic area requirements for long-term viability, and therefore for most species in the area, in isolation, it is considered too small to maintain long-term viability for some landscape-scale species – including the jaguar. Both the Conservation Action Planning workshops and technical meetings during the Conservation Action Planning process highlighted the importance of broadleaf forest connectivity, particularly for the larger, wide-ranging species indicative of the trophic integrity and health of the tropical forest ecosystem, that require large expanses of unfragmented forest for long term biodiversity viability.

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Broadleaf forest connectivity from the Maya Mountains Massif outwards was investigated, both into the southern coastal plain and northwards into the Manatee / Peccary Hills node, and on from there into the Rio Bravo /Gallon Jug area of the Selva Maya. As this is a binational project, and as biodiversity doesn’t recognize borders, broadleaf forest connectivity was also examined with the Guatemalan Complex III: Reserva De Biosfera Montañas Mayas/Chiquibul, to the west of the Maya Mountains Massif. Connectivity westwards through Complejo III in Guatemala, then northwards towards the Selva Maya has effectively been lost, through large scale forest clearance for cattle.

The Massif also plays a critical core protection area role within the Mesoamerica Biological Corridor and Wildlife Conservation Society’s Corridor Initiative, and is now considered the only remaining viable linkage between the Selva Maya forests to the north and the Sierra de Las Minas Biosphere Reserve in southern Guatemala. With the rapid expansion of human footprint in Cayo District north of the Massif, potentially viable biodiversity connectivity remains only to the north-east, through the Manatee Forest Reserve and the Runaway Creek and Peccary Hills private protected areas and the recently designated Peccary Hills National Park.

Priority Connectivity Recommendations

Securing the immediate and ongoing viability of this connectivity will entail:

Maintaining connectivity between the Sibun Forest Reserve and the Manatee Forest Reserve

Establishing connectivity between the Manatee Forest Reserve and the Runaway Creek / Peccary Hills area

Strengthening the security of the Peccary Hills as a protected area

Establishing corridor-compatible management between Runaway Creek/Peccary Hills and the Community Baboon Sanctuary, and from there to Rio Bravo

The two bottlenecks in this linkage identified as critical for the maintenance of broadleaf forest connectivity:

1. Sibun Forest Reserve and the Manatee Forest Connectivity across the Hummingbird Highway

2. The Runaway Creek/Peccary Hills connectivity northwards over the Western Highway towards Rio Bravo

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Selva Maya (Rio Bravo / Gallon Jug)

Manatee / Manatee / Peccary Hills Peccary Hills

Maya Maya Maya Mountains Mountains Mountains Massif Massif Massif

Contiguous Broadleaf Forest of the MMM Contiguous Broadleaf Forest allowing for connectivity Contiguous Broadleaf Forest allowing for connectivity across <50m non‐broadleaf forest gaps across <100m non‐broadleaf forest gaps

Map 3: Connectivity indicators for the Maya Mountains Massif A. Lloyd, Based on: Meerman (2004). Belize Ecosystem Map

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Map 4: Connectivity over the Hummingbird

Highway (Sibun Forest Reserve to Manatee Forest / Runaway Creek / Peccary Hills)

Hummingbird Highway

Areas with remaining broadleaf forest connectivity between the Maya Mountains Massif and Manatee Forest Reserve / Peccary Hills

Manatee Forest Reserve

Sibun Forest

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Map 5: Connectivity over the Western highway (Manatee Forest / Runaway Creek / Peccary Hills to Rio Bravo)

Areas highlighted for importance for broadleaf connectivity between Manatee/Runaway Creek/Peccary Hills and Selva Maya, across Western Highway

Runaway Creek Broadleaf forest

Western i

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Map 6: Contiguity with broadleaf forest in Complejo III, Guatemala

When including contiguous forest in Guatemala, the total broadleaf forest cover is increased by approximately a further 32,550 hectares (80,433 acres) to approximately 479,317 hectares (1,184,418 acres). This includes both the "Disturbed forest" and "Forest" categories shown in Map 10. Disturbed forest is still predominantly forest, with some small burned areas and/or clearings (typically less than 100m across, and surrounded by forest with canopy).

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3.0 The ‘Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management’ (RAPPAM) Process

3.1 Introduction Identified Impacts on Protected Areas of the Maya Mountains Massif (RAPPAM) The RAPPAM methodology is designed to give broad-level Unsustainable and/or illegal comparisons across a protected area system. Whilst it has not hunting (from Belizean been developed for site-specific protected area adaptive communities - excluding xatero management purposes, it does provide guidance for protected activity) Unsustainable and illegal xate area management within the broad context of the system being harvesting (including associated assessed, leading to identification of areas where greater impacts – hunting, looting, integration and / or collaborative efforts will improve harvesting of other forest management effectiveness over the system. It provides products) Unsustainable and/or illegal information that facilitates: harvest of Non-timber Forest Products (including pimento Identification of management strengths and seeds, bayleaf, and parrot weaknesses of individual protected area management nestlings) Unsustainable and/or illegal Analysis of the scope, severity, prevalence and logging (including timber salvage distribution of the identified threats and pressures operations) facing the protected area management within the Maya Pests / Disease (Southern Pine Mountain Massif system Bark Beetle) Increasing fire frequency Identification of areas of high ecological and social Land allocation / dereservation importance and vulnerability Land use change in adjacent Indication of the urgency and conservation priority of areas critical threats for individual protected areas within the Agricultural incursions Impacts of military training Maya Mountain Massif system exercises Assistance in the development and prioritization of Visitor and tourism impacts appropriate policy interventions and recommendations Mining / oil exploration and for the improvement of protected area management extraction impacts

effectiveness Other Noted Impacts Dam construction An initial workshop was held with protected area managers on Pollution 11th April, 2007 to introduce the RAPPAM tool, and calibrate the questionnaire to ensure that there was consensus on the meanings of both the questions and the possible choices.

3.2 Critical threats Identified under the RAPPAM Process

The RAPPAM process identified fourteen threats considered critical to at least one of the fourteen protected areas of the Maya Mountains Massif. Each was assessed as a ‘pressure’ (past impact on the system), and ‘threat’ (the future potential impact) (Table 5; Graphs 2 and 3.). Results of pressure and threat occurrence across the system show that five major impacts are considered to be relevant to all the protected areas: Illegal hunting, Illegal Hunting, Unsustainable / illegal Xate harvesting, Harvesting of Non-Timber Products (excluding xate), Unsustainable / illegal Logging and Mining / Oil Exploration.

Only one of these, Mining / Oil Exploration, is seen as a potentially rapidly increasing threat across the system when compared with past pressures, with the increasing interest in oil exploration and gold/mineral extraction, and the legislative loophole that allows the Department of Geology and Petroleum to issue mining exploration licenses within protected areas.

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Illegal Logging, whilst not an active threat in all protected areas, is considered to be likely to increase, as access becomes easier in the border areas of, for example, Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary and Bladen Nature Reserve. However the establishment of long-term forest licenses in the extractive reserves should assist in the control of unsustainable logging activities, and in surveillance against illegal logging incursions within the protected areas, so whilst the scope of this impact is expected to increase, the severity is expected to decrease.

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Scheme

Map 7: Dam Inundation Areas within the Maya Mountains Massif

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The impacts of the Southern Pine Bark Beetle, which are restricted to protected areas with pine forest; Visitor Impacts are currently restricted to Caracol, Mountain Pine Ridge, Cockscomb Basin and Victoria Peak - those protected areas with significant visitation within the system); and Military Impacts are restricted primarily to those protected areas included within, or adjacent to, military training areas (Mountain Pine Ridge, Chiquibul and Vaca) or areas of military patrol activity (along the adjacency zone of the Belize / Guatemala border). There are also impacts that have not been voiced within this assessment, but were mentioned during the Conservation Action Planning threat assessment process that followed – the potential environmental pollution of aquatic systems by mining effluent, and of upper elevation areas following pesticide deposition through orographic rainfall being two such concerns. Also of concern is opportunistic looting of archaeological sites throughout the Maya Mountains Massif system, whether by local hunters or xateros.

In general, there has been little resolution of past pressures, and most of the impacts are expected to continue over the next five years, unless effective implementation of adequate mitigation measures takes place to ensure that the level of impact decreases.

Results of pressure and threat occurrence across the system show that five major threats are considered to be relevant to all the protected areas (Figure 1):

Hunting Logging Harvesting of Non-Timber Products Mining / Oil Exploration Xate

12 10 Number of Protected 8 Areas (Total = 14) 6

Xateros Mining / Oil Other NTFP Illegal Hunting Illegal Logging Visitor Impacts Land Allocation Impacts Military (Adjacent Areas) Land Use Change

Agricultural Incursions Increasing Fire Frequency

Southern Pine Bark Beetle

Figure 1: RAPPAM Scope of Pressures and Threats across the protected areas of the Maya Mountains Massif System

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A number of impacts are limited to specific examples, a small number of protected areas, or by ecosystem specificity – for example, the construction of dams and resultant inundation of dam reservoir areas (Chalillo and Mollejon being the only two examples currently within the Maya Mountains Massif, with construction starting on a third, upstream from the Vaca Falls), and with the presence of the Hydromaya facility lying approximately 775m south of the southern boundary of Columbia River Forest Reserve, outside of the MMM; the impacts of the Southern Pine Bark Beetle, which are restricted to protected areas with pine forest; Visitor Impacts are currently restricted to Caracol, Mountain Pine Ridge, Cockscomb Basin and Victoria Peak - those protected areas with significant visitation within the system); and Military Impacts are restricted primarily to those protected areas included within, or adjacent to, military training areas (Mountain Pine Ridge, Chiquibul and Vaca) or areas of military patrol activity (along the adjacency zone of the Belize / Guatemala border). There are also impacts that have not been voiced within this assessment, but were mentioned during the Conservation Action Planning threat assessment process that followed – the potential environmental pollution of aquatic systems by mining effluent, and of upper elevation areas following pesticide deposition through orographic rainfall being two such concerns. Also of concern is opportunistic looting of archaeological sites throughout the Maya Mountains Massif system, whether by local hunters or xateros.

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Table 1: Summary of Critical Impacts Pressure/Threat Impacts on Biodiversity Causes Unsustainable and / Reduced viability of game species populations, and associated Low income in communities adjacent to PA, and reliance on game or Illegal Hunting impacts on trophic structure of area meat and fish to supplement diet Deliberate setting of fires in grassland areas adjacent to and in the Limited capacity of PA staff to effectively monitor and enforce within and Fishing PAs with pine savanna to attract white-tailed deer, causing increased PA (limited staff / finance) fire impacts – biodiversity loss, impaired condition Increased access from land clearance in boundary areas, for Likely long-term perturbation of forest structure & dynamics because subsistence, recreational and commercial hunters of xatero hunting impacts on seed dispersers High cost of red meat Likely long-term perturbation of aquatic ecosystems because of Preference for game meat reduced populations of larger fish species Unsustainable and / Reduced viability of xate (Chaemadorea ernestii-augustii) Low income in communities in Guatemala communities adjacent to or Illegal Xate Associated impacts on wildlife – intenses, indiscriminate hunting, Chiquibul National Park harvesting of parrots for pet trade, clearing of vegetation for camp Good market price of xate in Guatemala and internationally Harvesting areas, harvesting of pacaya and other plant food sources Limited ability to effectively monitor and enforce within PA (number of Likely long-term perturbation of forest structure & dynamics because rangers / finance) of xatero hunting impacts on seed dispersers Weak governance and law enforcement in border areas with southern Peten, Guatemala Unsustainable and Reduced viability of heavily harvested species such as thatching High demand for house construction materials by local communities /or Illegal palms, orchids, palmetto (seeds and stems) and other seeds Market for palmetto, palm and cycad seeds Heavy pressure on already reduced yellow-headed (and other) parrot Market for parrot nestlings, especially yellow-headed parrot Harvesting of Non- populations Timber Forest Products (excluding xate) Unsustainable and Changes in species composition with selective removal of species High demand for timber and timber products, both within Belize and Illegal Logging such as cedar, mahogany etc. for export Fragmentation of forest structure through construction of logging Increasing value of timber roads and tracks Use of cut logs for house and livestock fence construction Increased access for hunting and other illegal activities Weak enforcement of logging policies Hunting by logging crews Over-harvesting of seed and fruit trees in areas of hurricane damage Increased risk of erosion in riparian belt Mining / Oil Removal of riparian vegetation and adjacent broadleaf forest in High market value of gold and other mineral resources Exploration mining concession area Over-riding ability of Dept. of Geology and Petroleum to issue Fragmentation of broadleaf forest due to construction of access road, exploration and mining licenses within Pas with increased potential for edge effects Lack of integrated management Increased accessibility for hunting and other illegal activities Agricultural Removal of broadleaf forest cover Limited land availability for agriculture in Guatemala, for communities Incursions Associated impacts on wildlife – indiscriminate hunting, harvesting of adjacent to Belize border parrots for pet trade, harvesting of pacaya and other plant food Limited capacity of PA staff to effectively monitor and enforce within sources PA (limited staff / finance) Fire impacts associated with forest clearance for agriculture Increased access in boundary areas with Guatemala Leaching of soils with removal of forest canopy Weak governance and law enforcement in border areas with Increased erosion on steeper slopes southern Peten, Guatemala

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Table 5: RAPPAM Results - Summary of Critical Impacts (continued) Pressure/Threat Impacts on Biodiversity Causes Land Use Change in Removal of buffer area vegetation Increased requirement for agricultural land in the coastal plain areas Adjacent Areas Increased accessibility for hunting, fishing, looting Political use of land allocation process Increased potential for edge effects along boundaries following Increased land values clearance of forest for agricultural land Increased fire hazard along boundary areas Increased potential for agricultural incursion and/or illegal logging Increasing Fire Impacts on already reduced yellow-headed parrot populations, with Low income in communities encourages hunting for the table, with Frequency reduced nestling survival and reduced numbers of suitable nesting associated burning of pine ridge and savanna to attract white-tailed trees deer Fire frequency is increasing – there are now fires almost every year, Deliberate setting of fires in savanna areas adjacent to and in the degrading the pine savanna forest towards open grassland with PAs with pine savanna to attract white-tailed deer, causing increased decreased species diversity. fire impacts Potential to affect viability of broadleaf forest in ecosystem boundary Changing attitude towards natural resources in local communities, areas with less respect for environment Associated impacts on aquatic system, following rain Lack of awareness in younger generations of need for fire control Long recovery time Lack of awareness of long term impacts of fire, in local communities Lack of awareness of environmental benefits of tropical forest, its vulnerability and need for conservation Limited capacity of PA staff to effectively monitor and enforce within PA (limited staff / finance) Land Allocation / Allocation of land within the protected area for farming, resulting in Advance of agricultural frontier, with encroachment on protected Dereservation forest clearance and size reduction of protected area areas Political motivation Lack of liaison and cooperation between Government Departments Lack of clear boundaries, and lack of awareness of locations of protected areas in local communities Lack of respect for environmental benefits of protected areas Pests / Diseases Impacts of Southern Pine Bark Beetle on pine forests Limited staff / funds for monitoring and pine area management pre- Potential for Chytrid infection in upper elevation amphibians Southern Pine Bark Beetle Lack of knowledge on upper elevation amphibians in Belize and potential impacts, but considered high risk Orographic deposition of agro-chemicals in upper elevation areas Visitor Impacts Increased visitor numbers, with related impacts of soil compaction on Lack of enforcement of ‘no litter’ regulations by guides trails, increased garbage, expanding and unofficial campsites, Lack of adequate incentives / fines pressure on fragile ecosystems, increased fire risk Limited capacity of PA staff to effectively monitor and enforce visitor Vandalism (including graffiti) of archaeological structures and caves regulations (number of staff / finance) Unregulated research activities (eg. involving collection and Limited capacity of protected area co-managers / research stations to experimentation on critically endangered amphibian species) oversee research relating to sensitive species Unregulated education field project activities and impacts Military Impacts Increased human presence in broadleaf forest areas Designated military training areas for British Forces, under Increased noise impacts associated with training activities - agreement with Belize Government explosions, live-firing and helicopters, for example, with disturbance Limited opportunities for live-firing training elsewhere of wildlife Lack of awareness of protected area legislation and regulations Increased fire risks among military personnel, and / or lack of respect, and / or lack of Low level hunting impacts by Belize Defense Force patrols and enforcement British Forces local trackers

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3.4 Impacts per Protected Area

When assessing the impacts per protected area, only one protected area, Vaca Forest Reserve, stands out as having a combined average pressure and threat score of over 30 (out of a total possible of 64). A further four (Columbia River Forest Reserve, Deep River Forest Reserve (both Gomez and Wood Depot Concession management areas), Sittee River Forest Reserve and Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Reserve) have scores between 20 and 30 (Figure 4; Table 6). Three of the five protected areas with the highest pressure / threat scores are characterized by pine forest / savanna vegetation, devastated by Southern Pine Bark Beetle in 2001, and currently being impacted by increasingly frequent fires. The combination of these two impacts highlight these protected areas as being the most at risk (Figure 2).

30 Combined Pressure and Threat 25 Scores (out of a 20 total of 64) 15

/ SFR CFR VFR CAR CNP BNR SRFR CRFR DRFR MMFR VPNM MPRFR CBWS NKMEPNP

Figure 2: Combined, Averaged ‘Degree of Pressure and Threat’ Averaged Scores per Protected Area within the Maya Mountains Massif systems

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Major Pressures Major Threats Observations (over the last 5 years) (in the next 5 years) Vaca Forest Reserve Land Allocation Land Allocation Following construction of access road to the Mollejon Dam, the Agricultural Incursions Agricultural Incursions easier access through the Forest Reserve gave rise to a high Xateros Xateros degree of agricultural incursions, accompanied by illegal hunting Local illegal hunting Local illegal hunting activity. This has been further exacerbated by political allocation of lands within the FR. The proximity to the border, the limited management presence, and the presence of xate, has also led to the biodiversity of the area being heavily impacted by xateros. Deep River Forest Reserve Increasing Frequency Increasing Frequency The coastal pine savanna, impacted by Southern Pine Bark of Fire of Fire Beetle in the 2001 outbreak, is currently being heavily impacted Southern Pine Bark Xateros by the increasing frequency of fire, altering the composition of Beetle Local illegal hunting the ecosystem, preventing regeneration of pine, and removing Local illegal hunting Unsustainable and / or nesting trees of the yellow-headed parrot. Lowland fires in these Illegal harvesting of illegal harvesting of areas are generally associated with hunting activity, targeting non-timber forest non-timber forest white-tailed deer on the pine savanna during dry season. With a products products band of broadleaf forest to the north and west, there have also Xateros Southern Pine Bark been reports of xatero activity, with the associated heavy and Beetle indiscriminate hunting pressures. There is also unsustainable harvesting of non-timber forest products such as palmetto seeds and sticks, thatch leaves and medicinal plants. Low levels of Southern Pine Bark Beetle activity are also reported as being a potential threat to the timber resources, and are consequently being closely monitored. Sittee River Forest Reserve Land Allocation Agricultural Incursions The lack of on-site management presence within this Forest Xateros Land Allocation Reserve has given rise to a high degree of agricultural Agricultural Incursions Xateros incursions, accompanied by illegal hunting activity. There have Local illegal hunting Local illegal hunting also been reports of xatero activity, with the associated hunting pressures. The PA is being further eroded by political allocation of lands. Columbia River Forest Reserve Xateros Agricultural incursions CRFR was heavily impacted by Hurricane Iris in 2001, with large Unsustainable and / or Increased frequency of areas of forest destruction. More recently, logging salvage illegal logging fire operations have opened up the area, with tracks penetrating into Increased frequency Xateros the logging concession areas, increasing accessibility. The short of fire Unsustainable and / or term outlook of these companies and the limited number of FD Agricultural incursions illegal logging staff for monitoring has led to unsustainable practices, with the removal of remaining seed and fruiting trees The large dry timber load resulting from hurricane damage has been a major fire risk, and in some boundary areas, milpa fires have extended into the protected area itself. Agricultural incursions have become an increasing problem, especially in the San Pedro Columbia area, and illegal Guatemala settlement has been a consistent problem – particularly Santa Rosa, which was finally relocated in April, 2008. Xateros have also been active within the protected area over the last five years, but to a lesser extent than the more northerly Chiquibul area, as xate is generally less abundant in CRFR. Extensive logging incursions, again from Guatemala, are of particular impact on the plateau north-west of Little Quartz Ridge. Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Reserve Increasing frequency Xateros Following the heavy impact by the Southern Pine Bark Beetle of fire Increasing frequency infestation in 2001, resulting in the death of pine trees over a Southern Pine Bark of fire large portion of the area, the large fuel load has made the Beetle Military Impacts MPRFR particularly vulnerable to fire, both from lightening Xateros Southern Pine Bark strikes, and more frequently, associated with military training Military Impacts Beetle activities. Xateros have been active in areas where the pine ridge is broken by broadleaf forest, harvesting xate for sale in Guatemala.

Table 2: Summary of major pressures and threats on the five most heavily impacted protected areas (RAPPAM Assessment, 2007)

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4.5 An analysis of the pressures and threats affecting the five 4 most heavily impacted protected areas shows that 3.5 xatero activity has the highest 3 scope, affecting all five of the protected areas (Figure 5). No. of impacted 2.5 Xatero activities encompass not protected Areas 2 only xate harvesting, but also (out of 5) 1.5 indiscriminate hunting to sustain the xateros whilst they are 1 harvesting. Illegal hunting by 0.5 local Belizean communities is also prevalent throughout the 0 protected area system, but at a much lower level of impact than NTFP that of the xateros, being limited to a small number of community-based hunters and Land Allocation affecting a much more selective Local Illegal hunting Agricultural Incursions game species base. Increased Fire Frequency Southern Pine Bark Beetle Threat The protected area that clearly shows the least impacts is the combined Cockscomb Basin Figure 3: Major Pressures / Threats on the five most impacted protected Wildlife Sanctuary / Victoria areas of the Maya Mountains Massif system (RAPPAM Assessment, 2007) Peak Natural Monument – a reflection of both the degree of management presence and of its geographical position. Also showing low combined average pressure and threat scores are Bladen Nature Reserve and Noj Kaaj H’Meen Elijio Panti National Park2. All three of these protected areas are being actively managed under co-management agreements between the Forest Department and conservation organizations.

The majority of protected areas show a clear pattern of pressures, either remaining constant or increasing as they continue as threats over the next five years (Figure 4). The one protected area that shows a reverse trend – Mountain Pine Ridge - reflects past pressures of Southern Pine Bark Beetle on the pine forest, an impact that is now considered to be under control through improved management.

2 Subsequent to this assessment, additional data gathered from the management planning process for Elijio Panti suggests that the threat score for the National Park may be higher than indicated here Wildtracks, 2008….28

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30 Pressures and Threats (Average 25 Scores) 20

SFR CFR VFR CAR CNP BNR SRFR CRFR DRFR MMFR VPNM MPRFR CBWS

NKMEPNP Pressure Protected Areas

Threat Figure3.1.3 4: Pressures Comparison ofand ‘Degree Threats of Pressure per Protectedand Threat’ Averaged Area Category Scores per Protected Area within the Maya Mountains Massif systems (RAPPAM Assessment, 2007)

When the results are analyzed per protected area category (Figure 5), Forest Reserves show the greatest levels of both threats and pressures, with pressures considered to be increasing over the next five year period. Caracol, the single Archaeological Reserve, also shows high pressure and threat scores, primarily due to its location adjacent to the border with Guatemala, and the impacts from xateros, illegal logging and agricultural incursions from Guatemala.

15 Average Pressure and Threat 10 Scores

Parks

Forest Nature Reserves Reserves Wildlife Natural Santuaries

Reserve Monuments National Archaeological

Pressure

Threat Threat

Figure 5: Major Pressures / Threats per Protected Area Category Wildtracks, 2008….29

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Summary of Pressures and Threats (RAPPAM Assessment, 2007)

In summary:

1. The five pressures with the highest scope are illegal hunting, unsustainable and / or illegal harvesting of non timber products (excluding xate), unsustainable and / or illegal harvesting of xate, land use change in adjacent areas and unsustainable and / or illegal logging.

2. The five threats with the widest scope are illegal hunting, unsustainable and / or illegal harvesting of non timber products (excluding xate), unsustainable and / or illegal logging. land use change in adjacent areas, mining / oil exploration, and unsustainable and / or illegal harvesting of xate.

3. The five protected areas with the greatest pressures are Vaca Forest Reserve, Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Reserve, Deep River Forest Reserve, Sittee River Forest Reserve and Caracol Archaeological Reserve

4. The five protected areas with the greatest threats are Vaca Forest Reserve, Sittee Forest Reserve, Columbia River Forest Reserve, Deep River Forest Reserve and Sibun Forest Reserve.

5. The protected areas with the least overall pressures and threats are Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary and Victoria Peak Natural Monument, with combined co-management under Belize Audubon Society.

The results of the RAPPAM assessment of pressures and threats give an overall idea of the impacts and scale-of-impacts being faced throughout the system. Whilst generally these results are considered to accurately reflect the current status of threats within the Maya Mountains Massif system, there is recognition that there is a loss of accurate representation of the very high level of impact of xatero activity on the biodiversity of Chiquibul Forest Reserve, as other threats to this protected area are low.

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4.0 Specific Threats to Cultural Targets

During the last decade the Institute of Archaeology has identified several factors that threaten the stability, integrity and preservation of Belize’s tangible cultural patrimony within the greater Maya Mountains Massif. Several of these threats can be classified as general threats because they affect all properties, but in addition to these is also a small group of site-specific threats. Wide scale threats affecting all archaeological sites:

Looting, Forces of nature Human development

Looting is the single greatest concern for sites in every sub-region of the Maya Mountains Massif, primarily fueled by the law of supply and demand for exotic antiquities by wealthy collectors. With the lure of fast, significant financial returns, archaeological sites will continue to be targeted by local “huaqueros”. In Vaca and the Chiquibul, the majority of the looting is conducted by xateros, active in the area illegally harvesting xate palm leaves, but also opportunistically looting structures when they encounter them. In other sub-regions of Belize, (e.g. Toledo), both native and non-native Belizeans loot sites as a means to acquire hard cash. Today there is not a single region in Belize that is not affected by this situation.

The greatest forces of nature affecting the sites are hurricanes, rainfall, and seismic events. Hurricanes are particularly problematic at sites where the vegetation has been cleared for purposes of site development and conservation. Increased rainfall during tropical storms leads to erosion and the destabilization of monumental architecture. Problems associated with these types of situation particularly affect sites on the east facing slopes of the Maya Mountains Massif, and were experienced at both Lubaantun and Nim Li Punit during and following Hurricane Iris.

Heavy downpours also erode the soils around prehistoric buildings and acid rain can contribute to the dissolution of the limestone building blocks used by the northern Belize Maya. Although not as prevalent as tropical storms, and despite the distant location of most faults, seismic events, particularly earthquakes, have affected several of our sites in Belize. Some of these effects have been recorded at Caracol, Nim Li Punit and Lubaantun.

Human development is of particular concern in areas near large population bases, and therefore less of a threat within the Maya Mountains Massif itself. However, incursions into the foothills, with the desire for new farm land, logging concessions, and access to these resources results with the construction of new roads, the mining for construction materials, and general habitat destruction.

In other cases, damming of rivers (e.g. Chalillo and Vaca) for the production of hydroelectric power leads to the inundation and destruction of large numbers of sites and their cultural data. In Vaca, the most recent threat is the development of feeder roads being constructed into areas of newly dereserved lands. In the Chiquibul, there are concerns that the gold mining operations of the Ceibo Chico area have the potential to destroy evidence of prehistoric farming settlements along the river.

Site-Specific Threats

Identified site specific threats to preservation of cultural integrity include:

Extraction of metals for sale to Guatemalan smelters Tourism

Metal extraction particularly threatens Historic Period remains in the Chiquibul and Vaca sub-regions, with the removal of remnants of rail and locomotive components from the area around Vaca Falls and Wildtracks, 2008….31

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

Punta Rieles by metal extractors, and transported by Guatemalan trucks through Arenal. Dismantling and destruction has also occurred of some of the machinery left behind by the Menguel Company at the end of the 1920’s in the Caracol Archaeological Reserve.

Insufficient communication between Government Departments, whilst considered a general threat to natural and cultural resources throughout Belize, has also been highlighted in the specific threat in the above example, with a written permit being issued by the then officer in charge of the Forest station at Douglas D’Silva for the removal of the machinery.

Tourism is of particular threat to surface sites with high levels of visitation, and at present levels is not considered a major concern with the sites open to the public in the Maya Mountains Massif. Caracol has the highest level of tourism, with approximately 12,700 visitors recorded in 2006 - but even so, the visitor numbers are still far lower than other sites such as Xunantunich and Altun Ha. Tourism is nevertheless a long-term concern, particularly in cases where fragile architecture or monuments are partly accessible to visitors. In an effort to address this concern, the Institute of Archaeology generally creates specific tourist pathways through the sites, and has been investing heavily in the production of fiber glass replicas of fragile stucco monuments.

Tourism is also of particular concern in cave sites. Once visitors enter the caves it is very difficult to monitor their activities in these subterranean sites, with heavy reliance on the professionalism of tour guides to assist in the protection of these sites.

4.1 Strategic Responses to Threats to Cultural Resources

The Institute of Archaeology has expended much effort to implement several of the following strategies to address identified threats within the Maya Mountains Massif:

Improve presence at archaeological sites by increasing the number of research projects

Support of and participation in military patrols

Establishment of co-management agreements with conservation partners

Educational programs.

The establishment of archaeological projects in remote areas has provided not only important new information on relatively unknown regions of the country, but have also served to introduce presence in remote areas, detering/discouraging looting activities at sites under investigation. In view of this the Institute of Archaeology has actively tried to encourage new research projects in almost every sub-region of the Massif, with work at Caracol, new research at Las Cuevas, the Raspacula branch, and possibly in the Chiquibul Cave system this coming year. In 2008 a survey of cave sites is being conducted in southwestern Toledo.

Co-management agreements are being signed with co-management partners for a number of sites – Chiquibul Cave System, for example, is now being managed under agreement with Friends for Conservation and Development, and Elijio Panti National Park is also a prospective co-management partner.

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5.0 Situation Analysis

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Conservation Action Planning: Situation Analysis

Introductions

The information derived from the RAPPAM outputs and the first two Participants: CAP workshops on the viability of the conservation targets and the direct impacts to biodiversity and cultural target viability was further Situation Analysis developed during the first day of the CAP3 workshop, developing a 9th October, 2007 situation analysis, with inputs from a wide range of stakeholders, each with a different perspective on the Maya Mountains Massif. Forest Department Hannah St. Luce The Situation Analysis workshop generates a description of the David Perera participants understanding Raul Chun of impacts on the Saul Cruz conservation targets and Percival Cho the stresses on the Maya Andre Lopez Mountains Massif system Oscar Ulloa as a whole, both in terms of the biological issues Co‐Management Agencies and the human context. Rafael Manzanero (FCD) The participatory process Derric Chan (FCD) Dominique Lizama (BAS) also builds a picture of the Oswaldo Sabido (WD) contributing factors - the

indirect threats, key actors, Technical Input and opportunities for Jan Meerman (BTFS) successful action - that are Ed Boles (Nature Works) integral in the Bart Harmsen (WCS) development of objectives Osmany Salas (BELNARM) and strategies as an output of the conservation CONAP planning process, and Raquel Siguenza (Consultant) provides a basis on which to develop a monitoring TNC / Consultants framework. Natalie Rosado (TNC‐Belize) Rudy Herrera (TNC‐Guatemala) Estuardo Secaira (TNC_CAP) Rebecca Esselman (TNC‐CAP) Zoe Walker (Wildtracks) Paul Walker (Wildtracks) Adam Lloyd (Wildtracks) Nellie Catzim (Wildtracks)

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Situation Analysis: Broadleaf Forest

Conservation Stress Source of Stress Relevant Objectives Target

Unsustainable and By the year 2012, at least 65% of the Maya Illegal logging Mountains Massif is considered as an effective 5,6,7,8 reservoir for the protection of game species through the use of zonation and implementation Changes in of legislation abundance of 3,4 functional guilds Local Hunting 2

Subsistence By the year 2012, illegal xatero incursions and hunting (xateros) associated activities will be reduced by 85% 2

By the year 2012, all xate extraction in the Belize xateros Maya Mountains Massif is sustainable and Reduction in connectivity Broadleaf Forest regulated through the establishment of an with other forest blocks effective xate industry in Belize 1 1 Land use change in adjacent areas 9

By the year 2012, all agricultural incursions Forest clearance within the protected areas of the MMM are within MMM vacated and regenerating into forest, and no 11 new ones are reported 11 Reduction in extent of broadleaf forest Fire 11 13

Dereservation 1 Numbers refer to Indicators 12 For Strategic Actions see following section on Objectives

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Monitoring Framework: Broadleaf forest Indicators Priority Cost (High, (High, Medium or ID Indicator Methods, Location Responsible Body Medium or low) low) 1 Total area of contiguous (Baseline from CAP1) LANDSAT 5 (via (UB?) Low broadleaf forest Chetumal?), ASTER for increased resolution PA managers and reliability. Acquire scenes at beginning FD of dry season – Feb/March. Ground control Monitoring body? points collected regularly to use in interpretation. Overflights for specific areas. 2 Hunting pressure . . . Standardised patrol reports including PA managers Low (to be decided) standardised georeferenced recording of: FD gunshots, shotgun cartridges, camps, kill sites. Bi‐annual summary reports sent to central body. 3 Number of bi‐national patrols per Bi‐national patrol reports FD Low year FCD IoA 4 A monitoring programme has Baseline. Patrol reports. Indicator species – PA managers High for been designed and is being cracids, peccary? Researchers establishment; low implemented FD for operation Monitoring body? 5 Number of recorded incidences Standardised biannual submission of patrol PA managers of illegal logging activity reports. No. of stumps? Stump diameters? FD Monitoring body? 6 Number of long term forest Baseline report. Evaluation process. Trade Independent reviewer Medium licenses considered to be felling reports. sustainable 7 No. of LTFL management plans Critical review of management plans. Independent reviewer Low considered to be sustainable 8 No. of LTFL companies certified FSC listing External reviewer Low under FSC Percival Cho? 9 Percentage of border with (See 1 – RS data collection) (See 1) (See 1) contiguous forest cover 10 Number of critical corridors (See 1 – RS data collection) (See 1) (See 1) assessed as functional Ground surveys

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Monitoring Framework: Broadleaf forest Indicators (continued) Priority Cost (High, (High, Medium or ID Indicator Methods, Location Responsible Body Medium or low) low) 11 Percentage of land cover not Baseline – current situation (Oct 2007), (See 1) (See 1) under natural vegetation excluding pending dereservations. (See 1 – RS data collection) Ground surveys 12 Acreage of MMM dereserved Gazetted dereservations. FD Low? relative to present boundaries LIC? (Oct 2007) PA managers 13 Acreage of broadleaf forest Annual. SERVIR. PA managers Low burned per year Ground truthing. Monitoring body? Patrol reports. (See 1 – RS data collection)

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Situation Analysis: Pine Forest and Savanna

Conservation Stress Source of Stress Relevant Objectives Target

Forest clearance within MMM (Agricultural Incursions / By 2012, all pine bark beetle spots (< 2ha Dams etc.) ha) within Upland Pine Savannas and the Alteration of population Coastal Plain Pine Savannas are structure controlled, with no patch (> 4 ha) development

Unsustainable and illegal logging

Pine Forest Reduction in recruitment Pests and disease By the year 2012, 50% of the deforested and Savanna areas of the Upland Pine Savannas have been replanted where regeneration alone will not be sufficient to restore the forest; the remaining 50% of the area is replanted by 2017 in the production zones FireFire

Reduction in Population Size By 2012, reduce the incidence and size of fires by 50% within the Upland Pine Pet trade Savannas and 25% for the Coastal Plain Pine yellow headed parrots Savannas, and by 2017, reduce the incidence of fires by 75% within the two systems.

2 Numbers refer to Indicators For Strategic Actions, see following sectio n

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Situation Analysis: Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems

Conservation Stress Source of Stress Relevant Objectives Target

By the year 2012, conservation of Alteration of all freshwater communities within hydrologic regime Hydroelectricity the MMM through appropriate Systems 14 zoning, and longitudinal 15 connectivity to the coast is maintained for 90% of watersheds to support viable populations of migratory species. Disruption of sediment and particular organic By 2012, implement flow matter transport recommendations to mimic key 11,16 attributes of natural flow, sediment and energy regimes by 2010 for the 3 dams on the Macal River. Disruption of Forest clearance within Stream Connectivity MMM (Agricultural By the year 2012, all agricultural Aquatic and 11,18 Incursions / Dams etc.) incursions within the protected riparian areas of the MMM are vacated Ecosystems and regenerating into forest, and no new ones are reported Reduced water quality 17

By the year 2012, at least 65% of Land Use Change the Maya Mountains Massif is considered as an effective 11 reservoir for the protection of game species through the use of zonation and implementation of Changes in fish Hunting and fishing legislationones species composition 19 14 Numbers refer to Indicators

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Monitoring Framework: Aquatic and riparian ecosystems Priority Cost (High, (High, Medium or ID Indicator Methods, Location Responsible Body Medium or low) low) 14 Alteration of hydrologic regime Hydromet station data (downstream of Hydromet Low MMM reserves) – historical and current. Mean low and peak flows in dry season and wet season. High flow events – magnitude and duration, timing. 15 Hectares of watersheds impacted (See 1) Dam management Low upstream of dams Dam management company company Monitoring body? 16 Measurement of suspended Measure total suspended solids (Bowen Dam management Low sediment load upstream and lab, BWS?) company? downstream (of dams?) 17 Measurement of standard water Dissolved oxygen, temperature, pH, Dam management Low? quality parameters relative to conductivity, hardness, nutrient analysis, company national baseline and landscape bio‐indicators, mercury DOE context Ministry of Health? 18 Presence/absence of atyiid and Presence/absence – field surveys. PA staff Low macrobrachium shrimps and (Training of PA staff) Monitoring team (UB / mullets Galen / etc. ??)

19 Fishing pressure Standardised patrol reports including PA managers Low standardised georeferenced recording of: . . . ? fishing camps, fish bones, barbecue sites, fish nets/lines/traps. Biannual reports sent to central body.

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Situation Analysis: Upper Elevation Amphibians

Conservation Stress Source of Stress Relevant Objectives Target

Pests and Diseases (chytrid fungi)

Reduced Population Size By the year 2017, reduce chemical Environmental PollutionPollution pollution within the Maya Mountains Massif by 25% from the 2010 baseline levels

Upper Elevation Amphibians

ClClimateimate Change

Degradation of Habitat 15 Numbers refer to Indicators For Strategic Actions, see following sectio n

on Objectives Wildtracks, 2008….41

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Situation Analysis: Forest Products

Conservation Stress Source of Stress Relevant Objectives Target

Unsustainable and Reduced density of Illegal logging commercial timber

5,6,7,8

Belize By the yein ar 2012, all xate

industry ate x Legal Belize xateros extractiox n in the Maya

Mounteffective ains Massif is

an of sustainabnt le and regulated

Reduced xate through theestablishme establishment of

the population size an effectivethrough xate industry in 22 Belize 20,21

Forest Products 21,22 Xate Illegal xateros 23, 24 By the year 2012, illegal xatero incursions and associated activities will be reduced by 85% 21, 22, 23, 24, 25

Reduction in extent of broadleaf forest By the year 2012, all agricultural Forest clearance within incursions within the protected MMM (Agricultural areas of the MMM are vacated Incursions / Dams etc.) and regenerating into forest, and no new ones are reported

Reduced population size of medicinal, Unsustainable and ceremonial and food illegal harvesting 20 Numbers refer to Indicators source species For Strategic Actions, see following sectio n on Objectives Wildtracks, 2008….42

Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif –Threats and Opportunities, 2008

Monitoring Framework: Forest products (including xate) Priority Cost (High, (High, Medium or ID Indicator Methods, Location Responsible Body Medium or low) low) 20 Amount and quality of xate FD records; royalty records (FD); FD Low? exported per year records from concession holders 21 Average number of xate Field surveys: 1) within concession FD Medium leaves per plant areas; 2) other areas of the MMM PA managers (with 22) 22 Average number of xate Field surveys: 1) within concession FD Medium plants per hectare areas; 2) other areas of the MMM PA managers (with 21) 23 Number of active trails Patrol reports Low (used by Guatemalan Bi‐national patrol reports? xateros?) 24 Presence/absence of illegal Patrol reports PA managers Low xateros within MMM PAs FD BDF Concession holders 25 Amount of non‐farmed xate Records from CONAP CONAP Low exported from the Poptun area 26 Elevation of Chamaedorea CITES lists FD Low ernesti‐agustii to CITES Appendix II status 27 Presence/absence of ?? FD ? effective xate industry (Measures of effectiveness?) association

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6.0 Strategic Recommendations

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Strategic Recommendations Pressure/Threat Causes Recommendations Unsustainable Low income in communities Support initiatives to increase employment and / or Illegal adjacent to PA, and reliance on opportunities and opportunities for Hunting and game meat and fish to community development through Fishing supplement diet sustainable resource use, particularly in Limited capacity of PA staff to those communities that have the highest effectively monitor and enforce impact on the natural resources (the within PA (limited staff / finance) stakeholder communities in Toledo) Increased access from land Investigate options for community site clearance in boundary areas, for agreements for tourism sites (eg. Friends of subsistence, recreational and the Valley / Davis Falls and Swim Pools), commercial hunters giving access and tourism management to High cost of red meat site‐specific areas, without the requirement Preference for game meat for excision from established protected areas, category change, or full‐scale co‐ management agreements Increased awareness of protected area and wildlife protection regulations within local communities Increase awareness of environmental services and the benefits of the Maya mountains Massif Support the development and implementation of game farming in partnership with local hunting communities to replace the need for wild game meat Build on current multi‐agency collaboration for surveillance and enforcement activities Investigate scope for development of community managed buffer areas adjacent to protected areas for community sustainable use of natural resources Establish and enforce core protection areas for game species within the overall zonation system of the Maya Mountains Massif Establish system‐level surveillance and enforcement task force for deployment to critical hotspots for illegal activity within the Maya Mountains Massif Strengthen multi‐agency, binational patrols along the Adjacency Zone through increased resources, presence and collaboration among BDF, Police, FD, Immigration, IoA, FCD, Guat. Army, CONAP Strengthen enforcement of implementation of hunting regulations through collaborative partnerships, capacity building, resource allocation and increased presence in the field, especially for the white‐lipped peccary System‐level collaboration towards greater conviction rate for offenders Wildtracks, 2008….45

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Strategic Recommendations Pressure/Threat Causes Recommendations Unsustainable Low income in communities in Support CONAP in its strategies to increase and / or Illegal Guatemala adjacent to Chiquibul opportunities for community development Xate Harvesting National Park through sustainable resource use, in those communities in Guatemala that have the Good market price of xate in highest impact on the natural resources of Guatemala and internationally the Maya Mountains Massif (Belize)

Limited ability to effectively Build on current multi‐agency collaboration monitor and enforce within PA for surveillance and enforcement activities (number of rangers / finance) System‐level collaboration towards greater Weak governance and law conviction rate for offenders enforcement in border areas with southern Peten, Guatemala Hold concession holders liable for infractions by their harvesting crews

Ensure sustainable management of xate concessions in Belize by calculating and monitoring the production potential of each concessional area, in order to control the purchasing of illegally harvested xate

Put in place effective, regulated xate industry with a commitment from concession holders towards adherence to regulations for sustainability

Promote certification of sustainably managed xate concessions and plantations in Guatemala and Belize, through coordination with Rainforest Alliance and other relevant organizations, and by creating awareness of ecological consequences of the xate trade

Promote the establishment of xate plantations in forested areas, crop plantations (like cacao), and nurseries in Guatemala and Belize, in order to have a more controlled and sustainable source of xate.

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Strategic Recommendations Pressure/Threat Causes Recommendations Unsustainable High demand for house Complete implementation of move from short‐ and /or Illegal construction materials by local term logging licenses to long–term forest Harvesting of communities license concessions, for sustainability of forest Non-Timber Market for palmetto, palm and resources Forest Products cycad seeds Establish long term forest licenses with private (excluding xate) Market for parrot nestlings investors for pine savanna areas that need to (especially yellow‐headed be restored parrot) and other wildlife Formulate and implement long‐term sustained yield forest management plans for each LTFL concession area that takes into consideration fire, pine bark beetle and restoration management Strengthen multi‐agency, binational patrols along the Adjacency Zone through increased resources, presence and collaboration among BDF, Police, FD, Immigration, IoA, FCD, Guat. Army, CONAP Establish and enforce core protection areas for game species within the overall zonation system of the Maya Mountains Massif Strengthen enforcement of implementation of hunting regulations through collaborative partnerships, capacity building, resource allocation and increased presence in the field, Investigate scope for development of community managed buffer areas adjacent to protected areas for community sustainable use of natural resources Investigate financial feasibility of sustainable community harvesting of palmetto (‘popta’) seeds in southern Belize, with identification of private sector investment for development of quality control and marketing, and development of licensing and monitoring framework Investigate financial feasibility of allspice and vanilla as sustainable non‐timber forest products, with identification of private sector investment for development of quality control and marketing, and development of licensing and monitoring framework Unsustainable High demand for timber and Investigate scope for development of and Illegal timber products, both within community managed buffer areas adjacent to Logging Belize and for export protected areas for community sustainable Increasing value of timber use of natural resources Use of cut logs for house and Monitoring of timber being milled and livestock fence construction marketed, particularly in Stann Creek and Weak enforcement of logging Toledo Districts policies

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Strategic Recommendations Pressure/Threat Causes Recommendations Looting Low income in local Establish system‐level surveillance and communities enforcement task force for deployment to critical hotspots for illegal activity within the High demand for Maya Mountains Massif archaeological artefacts, with high value Strengthen multi‐agency, binational patrols along the Adjacency Zone through increased Limited knowledge of resources, presence and collaboration among locations of sites BDF, Police, FD, Immigration, IoA, FCD, Guat. Army, CONAP Limited effectiveness of surveillance and enforcement Increased liaison and collaboration between for archaeological sites protected area managers / co‐managers and the Institute of Archaeology to increase High presence of illegal prioritisation of cultural resources within the Guatemalan xateros within Maya Mountains Massif system Maya Mountains Massif, with opportunistic looting of Establishment of co‐management agreements structures encountered for critical sites

Destruction of archaeological Increase research presence by attracting more structures during dam and research projects within the Maya Mountains road construction Massif

Increased liaison and collaboration between IoA in Belize and IDEAH in Guatemala in tackling knowledge gaps, looting and trafficking of artefacts

Training for protected area staff in recognition, reporting and monitoring of archaeological sites and artifacts

Ensure all dam and road construction within the Maya Mountains Massif minimizes impacts on archaeological structures (and include this within ECP requirements for any tourism concession, mining license etc.)

Ensure aesthetic landscapes are categorized as sensitive landscapes under EIA schedules, requiring a full EIA to be conducted for any development within these areas

Increase awareness of the archaeological and cultural heritage of the Maya Mountains Massif through education programmes

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Strategic Recommendations Pressure/Threat Causes Recommendations Mining / Oil High market value of gold and Increased liaison and collaboration between Exploration other mineral resources Geology and Petroleum and Forest Department, Over‐riding ability of Dept. of with development for an agreement or protocol Geology and Petroleum to for granting licenses within the Maya issue exploration and mining Mountains Massif licenses within Pas Place a moratorium on any further mining Lack of integrated licenses (exploration or extraction), particularly management within Zone Ia(iii), until a geological survey has been conducted to assess mineral value of the Maya Mountains Massif, to ensure that any decision making process is informed Ensure a full and adequate EIA is required under EIA schedules for any mining exploration or extraction activity within the Maya Mountains Massif, to be approved by both Geology and Petroleum and Forest Departments, with particular attention paid to any concessions that may be located within the Core Preservation Zone (Ia(iii)) Ensure there is effective monitoring of any mining license concession within the Maya Mountains Massif, with costs to be covered by the license holder as a stipulation within the ECP Agricultural Limited land availability for Increased awareness of protected area and Incursions agriculture in Guatemala, for wildlife protection regulations within local communities adjacent to communities Belize border Build on current multi‐agency collaboration for Limited capacity of PA staff to surveillance and enforcement activities effectively monitor and Investigate scope for development of enforce within PA (limited community managed buffer areas adjacent to staff / finance) protected areas for community sustainable use Increased access in boundary of natural resources areas with Guatemala Establish system‐level surveillance and Weak governance and law enforcement task force for deployment to enforcement in border areas critical hotspots for illegal activity within the with southern Peten, Maya Mountains Massif Guatemala Strengthen multi‐agency, binational patrols along the Adjacency Zone through increased resources, presence and collaboration among BDF, Police, FD, Immigration, IoA, FCD, Guat. Army, CONAP Increased awareness of protected area regulations within local communities and agricultural sector Increase awareness of environmental services and the benefits of the Maya Mountains Massif

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Strategic Recommendations Pressure/Threat Causes Recommendations Land Use Change Increased requirement for Increased liaison with the Department of in Adjacent Areas agricultural land in the coastal Agriculture and Fisheries, and the Citrus plain areas Growers Association to halt the advance of Political use of land allocation process citrus farms into Sibun and Sittee River Forest Increased land values Reserves Investigate potential for tourism concessions within the Sibun and Sittee River Forest Reserves to give a management presence Investigate scope for development of community managed buffer areas adjacent to protected areas for community sustainable use of natural resources, particularly on southern coastal plain / foothills Investigate feasibility of community management initiatives – eg. In the Taungya Zone of Columbia River Forest Reserve, and possibly honey producers in the Vaca Forest Reserve

Increasing Fire Low income in communities Increased liaison and collaboration between Frequency encourages hunting for the protected area managers/co‐managers/LTFL for table, with associated burning joint response to fires of pine ridge and savanna to attract white‐tailed deer Increase vigilance within the Pine Savannas to Deliberate setting of fires in reduce the incidence of fires associated with savanna areas adjacent to and illegal hunting activities, through strengthening in the PAs with pine savanna private sector and NGO strategic alliances to attract white‐tailed deer, supporting FD causing increased fire impacts Develop and implement a wildfire suppression Changing attitude towards strategy for each LTFL area (Note: frequent natural resources in local wildfires stress trees and make them susceptible communities, with less to pine bark beetle attacks) respect for environment Lack of awareness in younger Develop and implement a multi‐lingual and generations of need for fire appropriate Public Awareness and control Communications Strategy addressing the Lack of awareness of long negative impacts of fires associated with hunting term impacts of fire, in local and milpa clearance communities Lack of awareness of Support the development and implementation of environmental benefits of game farming in partnership with local hunting tropical forest, its communities to replace the need for wild game vulnerability and need for meat, as a means of reducing savanna fires conservation associated with hunting Limited capacity of PA staff to effectively monitor and enforce within PA (limited staff / finance)

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Strategic Recommendations Pressure/Threat Causes Recommendations Land Allocation / Advance of agricultural Strengthen multi‐agency, binational patrols along Dereservation frontier, with encroachment the Adjacency Zone through increased resources, on protected areas presence and collaboration among BDF, Police, Political motivation FD, Immigration, IoA, FCD, Guat. Army, CONAP Lack of liaison and cooperation between Strengthen the implementation of the binational Government Departments institutional action plan between Forest Lack of clear boundaries, and Department and CONAP (binational monitoring lack of awareness of locations and surveillance, information exchange, of protected areas in local environmental education, community communities developmentM, in the MM fundraising) Lack of respect for environmental benefits of Investigate potential for tourism concessions protected areas within the Sibun and Sittee River Forest Reserves to give a management presence

Investigate feasibility of community management initiatives – eg. honey producers in the Vaca Forest Reserve, to provide surveillance presence

Ensure boundary clearance in identified critical areas

Visitor Impacts Lack of enforcement of ‘no Development of visitor regulations and litter’ regulations by guides guidelines for Core Preservation Zone: Visitors Lack of adequate incentives / accessing this area have to be accompanied by fines guides recognised by the FD, as having as Limited capacity of PA staff to adequate level of training, adopt ‘leave no effectively monitor and trace’ principles, and are equipped with enforce visitor regulations adequate safety equipment (number of staff / finance) Limited capacity of protected Build capacity of protected area rstaff fo area co‐managers / research tourism management stations to oversee research relating to sensitive species Ensure effective protocols are in place in the vetting of research proposals, particularly within the Core Preservation Zone

Adequate monitoring of fieldwork where threatened or sensitive species are targeted

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Strategic Recommendations Pressure/Threat Causes Recommendations Pests / Diseases Limited staff / funds for Develop and implement a Public Awareness monitoring and pine area Program that informs owners of private pine management pre‐Southern lands, concession holders and co‐management Pine Bark Beetle agencies of the consequences of pine bark beetle Lack of knowledge on upper infestations and the monitoring and control elevation amphibians in Belize measures they should implement and potential impacts, but Formulate and implement a Forest Restoration considered high risk Plan for the Upland Pine Savannas to identify Orographic deposition of areas needing active restoration, management agro‐chemicals in upper regimes and timeframes for replanting elevation areas Strengthen the capacity of the Forest Department to effectively regulate the implementation of the Forest Restoration Plan, through increased human and financial resources Strengthen the management and regulatory capacity of FD and establish a team to monitor and manage fires and pine bark beetle outbreaks, and form strategic alliances with key agencies that could provide assistance with aerial monitoring Increase knowledge of distribution and status of upper elevation amphibians Identify major environmental pollutants by June 2008 and establish a baseline through collaborative research initiatives among protected area managers, in collaboration with NGOs private sector, DoE, FD and other GoB agencies Monitor agrochemical deposition by orographic rainfall in upper elevation areas Monitor agrochemical presence in creeks and rivers leaving the Maya Mountains Massif Encourage adoption of best management practices in major pollutors, and the population in general, through increasing awareness, regulations and international technical and financial support Military Impacts Designated military training Increase awareness in BDF of protected area and areas for British Forces, under wildlife regulations, environmental services, and agreement with Belize environmental best practices for patrols Government Ensure BDF patrols within the Maya Mountains Limited opportunities for live‐ Massif include at least one protected area firing training elsewhere officer or co‐management representative Lack of awareness of Liaise with Batsub re. removing Core protected area legislation and Preservation Zone from the Batsub military regulations among military training area personnel, and / or lack of respect, and / or lack of enforcement

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Annexes

Annex One: Calibrated RAPPAM Assessment Form Annex Two: RAPPAM Results per impact Annex Three: CAP Threat Assessment Annex Four: CAP Situation Analysis results and indicators

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Annex One: RAPPAM Pressure and Threat Assessment Format

WWF

RAPID ASSESSMENT AND PRIORITIZATION OF PROTECTED AREA MANAGEMENT (RAPPAM) METHODOLOGY

CALIBRATED RAPID ASSESSMENT QUESTIONNAIRE

Background Information

1. BACKGROUND INFORMATION

a) Name of protected area: b) Date established: c) Size of protected area: d) Name of respondent: e) Date survey completed: f) Annual budget: g) Specific management goals and objectives:

h) Critical protected area activities:

Annex One Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

2. PRESSURES AND THREATS

Pressures: Past forces or activities that have negatively impacted the biodiversity Threats: Potential forces or activities that will negatively impact the biodiversity

Pressure:

Has Has not been a pressure in the last 5 years

In the past 5 years this activity has: Extent Impact Permanence

Increased sharply Throughout (> 50%) Severe (target eliminated) Permanent (> 100 years) Increased slightly Widespread (25-50%) High (target seriously degraded) Long term (20-100 years) Remained constant Scattered (5-25%) Moderate (moderately degraded) Medium term (5-20 years) Decreased slightly Localized (< 5%) Mild (slight impact) Short term (< 5 years) Decreased sharply

Threat:

Will Will not be a pressure in the next 5 years

The probability of the threat occuring Extent Impact Permanence is: Throughout (> 50%) Severe (target eliminated) Permanent (> 100 years) Very High Widespread (25-50%) High (target seriously degraded) Long term (20-100 years) High Scattered (5-25%) Moderate (moderately degraded) Medium term (5-20 years) Medium Localized (< 5%) Mild (slight impact) Short term (< 5 years) Low Very Low

Pressure:

Has Has not been a pressure in the last 5 years

In the past 5 years this activity has: Extent Impact Permanence

Threat:

Will Will not be a pressure in the next 5 years

Annex One Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Annex Two

Rapid Assessment and Prioritisation of Protected Areas Management

Summary of Threats

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Xate Harvesting (and associated impacts – hunting (including scarlet macaws), NTFP etc.) Xate Harvesting Status Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 – 20 years) Bladen Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Maya Mountain Scattered Short Term Pressure Mild 2 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 – 20 years) Deep River (Gomez) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Wood Depot) Throughout Medium Term Pressure Moderate 16 (>50%) (5 – 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 – 20 years) Cockscomb Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (> 5 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Sittee River Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 – 20 years) Sibun Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 – 20 years) Vaca Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 – 20 years) Elijio Panti Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Mountain Pine Ridge Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 – 20 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Xate Harvesting Status Extent Impact Permanence

Chiquibul Forest Reserve Throughout Long Term Pressure High 36 (> 50%) (20 - 100 years) Throughout Long Term Threat High 36 (> 50%) (20 - 100 years) Chiquibul National Park Throughout Long Term Pressure High 36 (> 50%) (20 - 100 years) Throughout Long Term Threat High 36 (> 50%) (20 - 100 years) Caracol Throughout Long Term Pressure High 36 (> 50%) (20 - 100 years) Throughout Long Term Threat High 36 (> 50%) (20 - 100 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Hunting (local communities – excluding xateros)

Hunting Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Widespread Medium Term Pressure Moderate 12 (25 – 50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (>50%) (5 – 20 years) Bladen Scattered Short Term Pressure Moderate 4 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (>50%) (5 – 20 years) Maya Mountain Scattered Short Term Pressure Mild 12 (5-25%) (< 5 years) Scattered Long Term Threat Moderate 24 (5-25%) (20 – 100 years) Deep River (Gomez) Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (>50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (>50%) (5 - 20 years) Deep River (Wood Depot) Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (>50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (>50%) (5 - 20 years) Cockscomb Scattered Short Term Pressure Moderate 4 (5-25%) (< 5 years) Widespread Medium Term Threat Moderate 12 (25 – 50%) (5 – 20 years) Sittee River Throughout Medium Term Pressure Moderate 16 (>50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (>50%) (5 – 20 years) Sibun Throughout Medium Term Pressure Moderate 16 (>50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (>50%) (5 – 20 years) Vaca Throughout Medium Term Pressure High 24 (>50%) (5 - 20 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (>50%) (5 – 20 years) Elijio Panti Scattered Short Term Pressure Moderate 4 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Widespread Short Term Threat Moderate 6 (25 – 50%) (< 5 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Hunting Extent Impact Permanence Score Mountain Pine Ridge Localized Short Term Pressure Moderate 2 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Scattered Short Term Threat Moderate 4 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Chiquibul Forest Reserve Scattered Short Term Pressure Mild 2 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Scattered Short Term Threat Mild 2 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Chiquibul National Park Scattered Short Term Pressure Mild 2 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Caracol Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Unsustainable and illegal logging (including salvage timber licenses)

Logging Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Widespread Long Term Pressure High 18 (25 – 50%) (20 – 100 years) Scattered Long Term Threat Moderate 24 (5 - 20%) (20 – 100 years) Bladen Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Maya Mountain Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Widespread Medium Term Threat Moderate 12 (25 – 50%) (5 - 20 years) Deep River (Gomez) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Wood Depot) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Cockscomb Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sittee River Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Sibun Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Vaca Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Elijio Panti Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Mountain Pine Ridge Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (<5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (<5%) (< 5 years) Chiquibul Forest Reserve Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Logging Extent Impact Permanence Score

Chiquibul National Park Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Caracol Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Other NonTimber Forest Products (excluding xatero activity)

NTFP Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Bladen Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Maya Mountain Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Gomez) Throughout Short Term Pressure Moderate 8 (> 50%) (< 5 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Deep River (Wood Depot) Throughout Short Term Pressure Moderate 8 (> 50%) (< 5 years) Throughout Medium Term Threat High 24 (> 50%) (5 - 20 years) Cockscomb Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sittee River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sibun Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Vaca Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Elijio Panti Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Mountain Pine Ridge Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul Forest Reserve Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul National Park Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Caracol Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Land Use Change in Adjacent Area

Adjacent Land Extent Impact Permanence Use Change Columbia River Scattered Medium Term Pressure Mild 4 (5 - 25%) (5 – 20 years) Widespread Medium Term Threat Moderate 12 (25 – 50%) (5 – 20 years) Bladen Localized Medium Term Pressure Mild 2 (< 5%) (5 – 20 years) Localized Medium Term Threat Moderate 4 (< 5%) (5 – 20 years) Maya Mountain Scattered Medium Term Pressure Moderate 8 (5 - 25%) (5 – 20 years) Scattered Medium Term Threat Moderate 8 (5 - 25%) (5 – 20 years) Deep River (Gomez) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Wood Depot) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Cockscomb Scattered Medium Term Pressure Moderate 8 (5 - 25%) (5 – 20 years) Widespread Medium Term Threat Moderate 12 (25-50%) (5 – 20 years) Sittee River Localized Medium Term Pressure Mild 2 (< 5%) (5 – 20 years) Localized Medium Term Threat Moderate 4 (< 5%) (5 – 20 years) Sibun Localized Medium Term Pressure Mild 2 (< 5%) (5 – 20 years) Localized Medium Term Threat Moderate 4 (< 5%) (5 – 20 years) Vaca Localized Medium Term Pressure Mild 2 (< 5%) (5 – 20 years) Widespread Medium Term Threat Moderate 12 (25 – 50%) (5 – 20 years) Elijio Panti Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Mountain Pine Ridge Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul Forest Reserve Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Adjacent Land Extent Impact Permanence Use Change Chiquibul National Park Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Caracol Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Increasing Frequency of Fire

Fire Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Localized Permanent Pressure Severe 16 (<5%) (>100 years) Scattered Permanent Threat Severe 32 (5 – 25%) (>100 years) Bladen Localized Long Term Pressure High 9 (<5%) (20 – 100 years) Localized Long Term Threat High 9 (<5%) (20 – 100 years) Maya Mountain Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Gomez) Throughout Long Term Pressure High 36 (>50%) (20 – 100 years) Throughout Long Term Threat High 36 (>50%) (20 – 100 years) Deep River (Wood Depot) Throughout Long Term Pressure High 36 (>50%) (20 – 100 years) Throughout Long Term Threat High 36 (>50%) (20 – 100 years) Cockscomb Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sittee River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sibun Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Vaca Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Elijio Panti Localized Medium Term Pressure High 6 (< 5%) (5 - 20 years) Localized Medium Term Threat High 6 (< 5%) (5 - 20 years) Mountain Pine Ridge Throughout Long Term Pressure High 36 (>50%) (20 – 100 years) Widespread Long Term Threat High 27 (25 – 50%) (20 – 100 years) Chiquibul Forest Reserve Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Fire Extent Impact Permanence

Chiquibul National Park Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Caracol Localized Long Term Pressure High 9 (< 5%) (20 – 100 years) Localized Long Term Threat High 9 (< 5%) (20 – 100 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Southern Pine Bark Beetle

Southern Pine Extent Impact Permanence Bark Beetle Columbia River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Bladen Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Maya Mountain Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Gomez) Widespread Long Term Pressure High 27 (25-50%) (20 – 100 years) Localized Medium Term Threat High 6 (< 5%) (5 - 20 years) Deep River (Wood Depot) Widespread Long Term Pressure High 27 (25-50%) (20 – 100 years) Localized Medium Term Threat High 6 (< 5%) (5 - 20 years) Cockscomb Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sittee River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sibun Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Vaca Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Elijio Panti Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Mountain Pine Ridge Throughout Long Term Pressure High 36 (>50%) (20 – 100 years) Localized Medium Term Threat High 6 (< 5%) (5 - 20 years) Chiquibul Forest Reserve Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul National Park Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Caracol Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Unauthorized Land Allocation

Land Allocation Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Bladen Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Maya Mountain Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Gomez) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Wood Depot) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Cockscomb Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sittee River Scattered Permanent Pressure Severe 32 (5 - 25%) (>100 years) Scattered Permanent Threat Severe 32 (5 - 25%) (>100 years) Sibun Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Vaca Widespread Permanent Pressure Severe 48 (25 - 50%) (>100 years) Widespread Permanent Threat Severe 48 (25 - 50%) (>100 years) Elijio Panti Scattered Short term Pressure Mild 2 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Threat - - - - Mountain Pine Ridge Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul Forest Reserve Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul National Park Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Caracol Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Agricultural Incursions

Agricultural Extent Impact Permanence Incursions Columbia River Localized Permanent Pressure Severe 16 (<5%) (> 100 years) Scattered Permanent Threat Severe 32 (5 - 25%) (> 100 years) Bladen Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Maya Mountain Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Gomez) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Wood Depot) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Cockscomb Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sittee River Localized Permanent Pressure Severe 16 (<5%) (>100 years) Scattered Permanent Threat Severe 32 (5-25%) (>100 years) Sibun Scattered Permanent Pressure Severe 32 (5-25%) (>100 years) Scattered Permanent Threat Severe 32 (5-25%) (>100 years) Vaca Scattered Permanent Pressure Severe 32 (5-25%) (>100 years) Widespread Permanent Threat Severe 48 (25 – 50% (>100 years) Elijio Panti Scattered Short term Pressure Mild 2 (5 - 25%) (< 5 years) Threat - - - - Mountain Pine Ridge Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul Forest Reserve Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Agricultural Extent Impact Permanence Incursions Chiquibul National Park Scattered Permanent Pressure Severe 32 (5 - 25%) (> 100 years) Scattered Permanent Threat Severe 32 (5 - 25%) (> 100 years) Caracol Scattered Permanent Pressure Severe 32 (5 - 25%) (> 100 years) Scattered Permanent Threat Severe 32 (5 - 25%) (> 100 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Military Impacts

Military Impacts Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Bladen Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Maya Mountain Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Gomez) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Wood Depot) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Cockscomb Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sittee River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sibun Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Vaca Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Elijio Panti Scattered Short Term Pressure Moderate 4 (5-25%) (< 5 years) Scattered Short Term Threat Moderate 4 (5-25%) (< 5 years) Mountain Pine Ridge Widespread Medium Term Pressure Moderate 12 (25 - 50%) (5 - 20 years) Widespread Medium Term Threat Moderate 12 (25 - 50%) (5 - 20 years) Chiquibul Forest Reserve Localized Short Term Pressure Moderate 2 (< 5%) ( < 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Moderate 2 (< 5%) ( < 5 years) Chiquibul National Park Localized Short Term Pressure Moderate 2 (< 5%) ( < 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Moderate 2 (< 5%) ( < 5 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Military Impacts Extent Impact Permanence

Caracol Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Tourism Impacts

Tourism Impacts Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Bladen Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Maya Mountain Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Gomez) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Wood Depot) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Cockscomb Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (<5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Moderate 2 (<5%) (< 5 years) Sittee River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sibun Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Vaca Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Elijio Panti Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Mountain Pine Ridge Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (<5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Mild 1 (<5%) (< 5 years) Chiquibul Forest Reserve Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul National Park Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Caracol Localized Short Term Pressure Mild 1 (< 5%) (< 5 years) Localized Short Term Threat Moderate 2 (< 5%) (< 5 years)

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Mining / Oil

Tourism Impacts Extent Impact Permanence Columbia River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Bladen Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Maya Mountain Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Gomez) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Deep River (Wood Depot) Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Cockscomb Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sittee River Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Sibun Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Vaca Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Elijio Panti Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Mountain Pine Ridge Pressure - - - - Threat - - - - Chiquibul Forest Reserve Localized Medium Term Pressure Mild 2 (< 5%) (5 - 20 years) Localized Medium Term Threat Moderate 4 (< 5%) (5 - 20 years) Chiquibul National Park Localized Medium Term Pressure Moderate 4 (< 5%) (5 - 20 years) Localized Long Term Threat Severe 12 (< 5%) (20 – 100 years) Caracol Pressure - - - - Threat - - - -

Annex Two Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Annex Three

CAP Threat Assessment for the Maya Mountains Massif

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Broadleaf Forest

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Changes in abundance of functional guilds High High High

2 Reduction in extent of broadleaf forest Very High Low Low

3 Reduction in connectivity with other forest blocks Medium High Medium

Reduction in Broadleaf Forest Changes in abundance Reduction in extent of connectivity with other of functional guilds broadleaf forest Threats - Sources of Stress forest blocks

Stresses 1 2 3 Rank High Low Medium Threat to Target: 1. Unsustainable and illegal logging Low Contribution - - Low

Irreversibility - - Low

Threat Rank - - Low Threat to Target: 2. Local Hunting Low Contribution Low - -

Irreversibility Medium - -

Threat Rank Low - - Threat to Target: 3. Subsistence hunting (xateros) High Contribution Very High - -

Irreversibility Medium - -

Threat Rank High - - Threat to Target: 4. Land use change in adjacent areas Medium Contribution Low - Very High

Irreversibility High - High

Threat Rank Medium - Medium

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Reduction in Broadleaf Forest Changes in abundance Reduction in extent of connectivity with other of functional guilds broadleaf forest Threats - Sources of Stress forest blocks Stresses 1 2 3 Rank High Low Medium 5. Forest Clearance within the Maya Mountains Massif (Agricultural Threat to Target: incursions / Dams etc.) Low Contribution Low High -

Irreversibility Low Medium -

Threat Rank Low Low - Threat to Target: 6. Fire Low Contribution - High - Irreversibility - Medium -

Threat Rank - Low -

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Pine Forest and Savanna

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Alteration of population structure High High High

2 Reduction in population size Medium Medium Medium

3 Reduction in recruitment Medium Medium Medium

4 Change in species composition High Medium Medium

Alteration of Change in Pine Forest and Savanna Reduction in Reduction in population species population size recruitment Threats - Sources of Stress structure composition

Stresses 1 2 3 4 Rank High Medium Medium Medium 1. Forest Clearance within the Maya Mountains Massif (Agricultural incursions / Threat to Target: Dams etc.) High Contribution High Low High High

Irreversibility High High High High

Threat Rank High Low Medium Medium Threat to Target: 2. Pests and Disease – Southern Pine Bark Beetle High Contribution Very High High Medium High

Irreversibility Very High High Medium High

Threat Rank High Medium Low Medium Threat to Target: 3. Unsustainable and illegal logging Medium Contribution High Medium Low Low

Irreversibility Medium Medium Medium Low

Threat Rank High Low Low Low Threat to Target: 4. Pet trade (Yellow-headed parrot) Low Contribution Medium Medium Medium Medium

Irreversibility Low Low Low Low

Threat Rank Low Low Low Low

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Alteration of Change in Pine Forests and Savannas Reduction in Reduction in population species population size recruitment Threats - Sources of Stress structure composition Stresses 1 2 3 Rank High Low Medium Medium Threat to Target: 5. Fire High Contribution Very High Very High Very High Very High

Irreversibility High High Medium Medium

Threat Rank High Medium Medium Medium

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Aquatic and Riparian Ecosystems

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Alteration of hydrologic regime (flow regime) High Low Low

2 Disruption of sediment and particular organic matter transport Low Low Low

3 Water quality change Medium Low Low

4 Disruption of stream connectivity High High High

5 Disruption of landscape connectivity Medium Medium Medium

6 Alteration of riparian forest Very High Low Low

7 Increased sedimentation Low Medium Low

8 Changes in species composition High High High

Disruptio Alteratio n of Disruptio Disruptio Changes n of sediment n of Alteratio Aquatic and Riparian Water n of Increased in hydrolog and landscap n of quality stream sediment species Ecosystems ic regime particula e riparian change connecti ation composit (flow r organic connecti forest Threats - Sources of Stress vity ion regime) matter vity transport Stresses 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rank Low Low Low High Medium Low Low High Threat to 1. Hydroelectricity Systems Target: High Very Very Very Contribution High High Medium High - High High High Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Irreversibility - High High High High High High High Threat Rank Low Low Low High Medium Low Low -

2. Forest Clearance within the Maya Mountains Massif (Agricultural incursions / Dams Threat to Target: etc.) Medium Contribution Low - - Low - Low Low -

Irreversibility Medium - - Medium - Medium Medium -

Threat Rank Low - - Low - Low Low -

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Disruptio Alteratio n of Disruptio Disruptio Changes n of sediment n of Alteratio Aquatic and Riparian Water n of Increased in hydrolog and landscap n of quality stream sediment species Ecosystems ic regime particula e riparian change connecti ation composit (flow r organic connecti forest Threats - Sources of Stress vity ion regime) matter vity transport Stresses 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rank Low Low Low High Medium Low Low High Threat to 3. Tourism Development Target: Low Contribution Low - - Low - Low Low -

Irreversibility Medium - - Medium - Low Low -

Threat Rank Low - - Low - Low Low - Threat to 4. Fire Target: Medium Contribution - - - Medium - - Low -

Irreversibility - - - Medium - - Medium -

Threat Rank - - - Medium - - Low - Threat to 5. Subsistence Hunting / Fishing (Xateros) Target: High Contribution ------Medium

Irreversibility ------Medium

Threat Rank ------Medium Threat to 6. Local Hunting / Fishing Target: Medium Contribution ------High

Irreversibility ------Medium

Threat Rank ------Medium

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Upper Elevation Amphibians

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Reduced population size High Very High High

2 Habitat degradation Medium Very High Medium

Upper Elevation Amphibians Reduced population Habitat degradation Threats - Sources of Stress size

Stresses 1 2 Rank High Low Threat to Target: 1. Pests and Diseases – Chytrid Fungi High Contribution High -

Irreversibility High -

Threat Rank High - Threat to Target: 2. Changes in Weather Pattern High Contribution High Very High -

Irreversibility Very High Very High -

Threat Rank High Medium - Threat to Target: 3. Environmental Pollution High Contribution High Very High -

Irreversibility High High -

Threat Rank High Medium -

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Forest Products

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Reduced xate population size High Very High High

2 Altered xate population structure and recruitment Very High Very High Very High

3 Reduced density of commercial timber Medium Medium Medium

Reduced population size of medicinal, ceremonial and food 4 Low Very High Low source species

5 Reduction in extent of broadleaf forest Very High Low Low

Reduced population Reduced Altered xate Reduced size of Reduction in Forest Products xate population density of medicinal, extent of Threats - Sources of Stress population structure and commercial ceremonial broadleaf size recruitment timber and food forest source species Stresses 1 2 3 4 5 Rank High Very High Medium Low Low Threat to 1. Unsustainable Harvesting – illegal Guatemalan xateros Target: Very High Contribution Very High Very High - High -

Irreversibility High High - Very High -

Threat Rank High Very High - Low - Threat to 2. Unsustainable Harvesting – illegal Belizean xateros Target: Medium Contribution Low Low - Low -

Irreversibility Medium Medium - Medium -

Threat Rank Low Medium - Low - Threat to 3. Unsustainable Harvesting – Belizean concession holders Target: High Contribution Medium Medium - - -

Irreversibility Medium Medium - - -

Threat Rank Medium High - - -

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Reduced population Reduced Altered xate Reduced size of Reduction in Forest Products xate population density of medicinal, extent of Threats - Sources of Stress population structure and commercial ceremonial broadleaf size recruitment timber and food forest source species Stresses 1 2 3 4 5 Rank High Very High Medium Low Low Threat to 4. Forest Clearance within MMM (Agricultural Incursions, Dams etc.) Target: Very High Contribution Medium Medium Low Low Very High

Irreversibility Very High Very High Very High Very High Very High

Threat Rank High Very High Low Low Low Threat to 5. Unsustainable and Illegal Logging Target: Low Contribution - - High - -

Irreversibility - - Medium - -

Threat Rank - - Low - -

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Jaguar

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Direct human impact Low Low Low

2 Decreasing abundance of food resources Medium High Medium

3 Reduction in connectivity Medium Very High Medium

4 Decreasing habitat area Very High Medium Medium

Decreasing Jaguar Direct human Reduction in Decreasing abundance of impact connectivity habitat area Threats - Sources of Stress food resources

Stresses 1 2 3 4 Rank Low Medium Medium Medium Threat to Target: 1. Killing of jaguars in areas of human conflict Low Contribution Low - - -

Irreversibility Medium - - -

Threat Rank Low - - - Threat to Target: 2. Pet trade Low Contribution Low - - -

Irreversibility Medium - - -

Threat Rank Low - - - Threat to Target: 3. Subsistence Hunting (xateros) Medium Contribution Medium Very High - -

Irreversibility High High - -

Threat Rank Low Medium - - Threat to Target: 4. Local hunting Low Contribution Low Low - -

Irreversibility Medium Medium - -

Threat Rank Low Low - -

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Decreasing Jaguar Direct human Reduction in Decreasing abundance of impact connectivity habitat area Threats - Sources of Stress food resources Stresses 1 2 3 4 Rank Low Medium Medium Medium Threat to Target: 5. Land Use Change in Adjacent Areas Medium Contribution Low - Very High Very High

Irreversibility High - High High

Threat Rank Low - Medium Medium Threat to Target: 6. Forest Clearance within the MMMM (Agricultural Incursions, Dams etc.) Medium Contribution Medium Medium Low Very High

Irreversibility Very High Very High Very High Very High Threat Rank Low Medium Low Medium

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Archaeological Sites

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Erosion and pulverization of archaeological structures High Medium Medium

Erosion and Archaeological Sites pulverization of Threats - Sources of Stress archaeological structures

Stresses 1 Rank Medium Threat to Target: 1. Looting and Vandalism Medium Contribution Medium

Irreversibility Very High

Threat Rank Medium Threat to Target: 2. Uncontrolled Visitation Low Contribution Low -

Irreversibility High -

Threat Rank Low - Threat to Target: 3. Weathering Medium Contribution Very High -

Irreversibility High -

Threat Rank Medium - Threat to Target: 4. Hydroelectricity Systems Low Contribution Low

Irreversibility Very High

Threat Rank Low Threat to Target: 5. Roads / Infrastructure Low Contribution Low

Irreversibility High

Threat Rank Low

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Aesthetic Landscapes

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Fragmentation/modification of the landscape High Medium Medium

Aesthetic Landscapes Fragmentation/modificati on of the landscape

Threats - Sources of Stress

Stresses 1 Rank Medium Threat to Target: 1. Uncontrolled Visitation Low Contribution High

Irreversibility Medium

Threat Rank Low Threat to Target: 2. Forest Clearance within the MMM Agricultural Incursions, Dams etc.) Low Contribution Medium

Irreversibility Medium

Threat Rank Low Threat to Target: 3. Land Use Change in Adjacent Areas Low Contribution Medium

Irreversibility Medium

Threat Rank Low Threat to Target: 4. Mines and Minerals – exploration / extraction Medium Contribution High

Irreversibility High

Threat Rank Medium Threat to Target: 5. Roads / Infrastructure Medium Contribution Very high

Irreversibility Very High

Threat Rank Medium

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Aesthetic Landscapes Fragmentation/modificati on of the landscape

Threats - Sources of Stress Stresses 1 Rank Medium Threat to Target: 6. Fire Low Contribution Medium

Irreversibility High

Threat Rank Low

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Stresses and Source of Stress: Subterranean Systems (Caves, Sinkholes Underground Rivers)

Severity Scope Stress Rank Stresses

1 Diminishing populations of cave dwelling species (eg. bats) Medium Low Low

2 water quality change Low Low Low

3 Habitat destruction Low Low Low

4 Loss of archaeological remains and drawings High Medium Medium

5 Alteration of cave formation processes Medium Medium Medium

Diminishing populations Loss of Alteration of Forest Products of cave water quality Habitat archaeological cave Threats - Sources of Stress dwelling change destruction remains and formation species (eg. drawings processes bats) Stresses 1 2 3 4 5 Rank Low Low Low Medium Medium Threat to 1. Uncontrolled Visitation Target: Medium Contribution Medium Low Low High Medium

Irreversibility Medium Low Low Very High Very High

Threat Rank Low Low Low Medium Medium Threat to 2. Fire Target: Low Contribution Low - Low - -

Irreversibility Medium - High - -

Threat Rank Low - Low - - Threat to 3. Looting and Vandalism Target: Medium Contribution - - High Medium -

Irreversibility - - Very High Very High -

Threat Rank - - Medium Medium -

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Pine Forest Aquatic and Upper Overall Table …: Summary Results Broadleaf Forest Archaeologi Aesthetic Subterranean and Riparian Elevation Jaguar Threat Threats Across Targets 1 - 15 Forest Products cal Sites Landscapes Sites Savanna Systems Amphibians Rank Forest clearance within MMM 1 (Agricultural Incursions / Dams Low High Medium - Very High Medium - Low - High etc.) Unsustainable harvesting - 2 - - - - Very High - - - - High illegal Guatemalan xateros 3 Subsistence hunting (xateros) High - High - - Medium - - - High

4 Fire Low High Medium - - - - Low Low Medium

13 Local hunting Low - Medium - - Low - - - Medium

14 Uncontrolled visitation ------Low Low Medium Low Unsustainable and Illegal 15 Low Medium - - Low - - - - Low logging 16 Roads / infrastructure ------Low Medium - Low

Threat Status for Targets and Medium High High High Very High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Project

Annex Three Technical Assessment of the Maya Mountains Massif: Threats and Opportunities

Annex Three