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Annual Report 1997 (ES) I NSTITUTO MONETARIO EUROPEO INFORME ANUAL 1997 Mayo 1998 © Instituto Monetario Europeo, 1998 Apartado de correos 16 03 19, D-60066 Francfort Todos los derechos reservados. Están permitidas las fotocopias para fines docentes o sin ánimo de lucro, citando la fuente. ISSN 1024-5545 Impreso por Kern & Birner GmbH + Co., D-60486 Francfort II Índice Prólogo Resumen 1 Capítulo I Condicionantes económicos, monetarios y financieros en la Unión Europea 1 Contexto económico y financiero en 1997 1.1 Principales acontecimientos fuera de la UE 16 1.2 Evolución macroeconómica en la UE 22 1.3 Logros en la convergencia macroeconómica 28 2 Las políticas monetarias en los Estados miembros 2.1 Mayor convergencia de los tipos de interés 30 2.2 Las políticas monetarias en cada uno de los Estados miembros 31 3 Perspectivas económicas y retos de futuro 3.1 Perspectivas económicas para 1998-99 38 3.2 Las políticas monetarias en lo que queda de la segunda fase 39 Capítulo II Trabajo preparatorio de la tercera fase 1 Política monetaria 1.1 Estrategia de política monetaria 46 1.2 La instrumentación de la política monetaria única 46 2 Política cambiaria 2.1 El Mecanismo de Tipos de Cambio II 51 2.2 Intervenciones en los mercados cambiarios 51 2.3 Directrices a los BCNs y Estados miembros sobre operaciones con sus activos de reserva 51 2.4 Tipos de cambio de referencia del euro 52 2.5 El preanuncio de los tipos de cambio bilaterales que se utilizarán para determinar los tipos de conversión irrevocables del euro 52 3 Estadísticas 3.1 Requerimientos estadísticos de la tercera fase 54 3.2 Organización del trabajo estadístico a nivel europeo 57 3.3 Aspectos legales 57 3.4 Infraestructura de los sistemas informáticos 58 4 Sistemas de pago 4.1 El sistema TARGET 59 4.2 Sistemas de liquidación de valores 60 III 5 Preparación de los billetes euro 63 6 Contabilidad 65 7 Sistemas de información y de comunicaciones 66 8 Supervisión bancaria y estabilidad financiera 68 9 Cuestiones legales 9.1 Convergencia legal 71 9.2 Legislación secundaria de la Comunidad 72 10 Introducción del euro 73 11 Información pública 76 Capítulo III Otras funciones del IME 1 Supervisión de la Cámara de compensación y liquidación del ECU 1.1 Actividades de la Cámara de compensación y liquidación del ECU en 1997 80 1.2 Trabajo preparatorio de la tercera fase de la UEM 81 2 Dinero electrónico 82 3 Cooperación en materia de supervisión bancaria y estabilidad financiera 3.1 Funcionamiento y estabilidad de los sistemas bancarios de la UE a medio y largo plazo 84 3.2 El uso de datos macroeconómicos en el proceso de supervisión 86 3.3 Otras cuestiones 87 4 Administración de los mecanismos del SME y créditos comunitarios 4.1. Mecanismos del SME 89 4.2 Créditos comunitarios 90 5 Funciones consultivas 91 6 Supervisión del cumplimiento de la prohibición de financiación monetaria y acceso privilegiado 94 7 Cooperación con otras instituciones 95 Cuentas anuales del IME 99 IV Anejos Extractos del Informe de Convergencia (marzo 1998) 110 Comunicado conjunto sobre la fijación de los tipos de conversión irrevocables del euro, emitido el 2 de mayo de 1998 119 Glosario 124 Cronología de las medidas monetarias adoptadas en la UE durante 1997 133 Otras publicaciones del IME 138 V Lista de recuadros, cuadros y gráficos * Recuadros 1 Evolución de la crisis asiática en 1997 20 Cuadro: Cambios en los precios de activos en los mercados asiáticos 21 2 Características del área euro 40 Cuadro: Principales características del área euro en 1997 42 3 Opinión del Consejo del IME sobre la emisión de dinero electrónico 82 Cuadros 1 Evolución reciente del crecimiento del PIB real 22 2 Composición del crecimiento en la UE en 1997 24 3 Balanzas comerciales y por cuenta corriente en la UE 25 4 Comparación de los datos de desempleo nacionales y de EUROSTAT 27 5 Indicadores económicos y criterios de convergencia del «Tratado de Maastricht» 29 6 Objetivos y referencias de política monetaria de los Estados miembros 33 a) Agregados monetarios - objetivos y referencias b) Objetivos oficiales de inflación 7 Créditos comunitarios 90 8 Procedimientos de consulta 92 9 Tipos centrales bilaterales del Mecanismo de Cambios del SME, que se utilizarán en la determinación de los tipos de conversión irrevocables del euro 120 Gráficos 1 Principales indicadores de las economías más industrializadas 18 2 Tasas de desempleo 26 3 Tipos de interés oficiales y de intervención 32 4 Diferenciales de tipos de interés a corto plazo frente a Alemania 36 * Signos utilizados en los cuadros: «-» No aplicable «.» No disponible «...» Nulo o insignificante * En la elaboración de los datos agregados de la UE-15, para el cálculo de las ponderaciones de los datos nacionales, en general, han sido utilizados como tipos de cambio las paridades de poder de compra, aunque los datos sobre comercio han sido elaborados con los tipos de cambio de 1993. Las tasas y los índices (salvo el IPC) han sido elaborados utilizando como factor de ponderación el PIB de 1993; las ponderaciones para la construcción del IPC se han calculado a partir del gasto de consumo. Este informe fue finalizado al principio de mayo de 1998. VI Abreviaturas Países* BE Bélgica DK Dinamarca DE Alemania GR Grecia ES España FR Francia IE Irlanda IT Italia LU Luxemburgo NL Holanda AT Austria PT Portugal FI Finlandia SE Suecia UK Reino Unido JP Japón EEUU Estados Unidos de América Monedas E Euro BEF/LUF Franco Belgo/Luxemburgués DKK Corona danesa DEM Marco alemán GRD Dracma griega ESP Peseta FRF Franco francés IEP Libra irlandesa ITL Lira italiana NLG Florín holandés ATS Chelín austríaco PTE Escudo portugués FIM Marco finlandés SEK Corona sueca GBP Libra esterlina JPY Yen japonés USD Dólar USA * En el informe, de acuerdo con la práctica de la Comunidad, los países están ordenados según el orden alfabético de los idiomas nacionales. VII Segunda línea (de izquierda a derecha): A. Fazio, P. Jaans, M. O'Connell, U. Bäckström, A. de Sousa, A. Verplaetse, J.-C. Trichet, N. Wellink, L. Papademos, K. Liebscher, E. George. Primera línea: H. Tietmeyer, S. Hämäläinen, W. Duisenberg (Presidente), L. A. Rojo (Vice- presidente), B. Andersen. VIII Consejo del IME A. Lamfalussy (hasta el 30 de junio de 1997) Presidente del IME W. Duisenberg (desde el 1 de julio de 1997) L. A. Rojo Banco de España y Vicepresidente del IME A. Verplaetse Nationale Bank van België/ Banque Nationale de Belgique B. Andersen Danmarks Nationalbank H. Tietmeyer Deutsche Bundesbank L. Papademos Banco de Grecia J. C. Trichet Banque de France M. O’Connell Bank of Ireland A. Fazio Banca d’Italia P. Jaans Institut Monétaire Luxembourgeois W. Duisenberg (hasta el 30 de junio de 1997) De Nederlandsche Bank N. Wellink (desde el 1 de julio de 1997) K. Liebscher Oesterreichische Nationalbank A. de Sousa Banco de Portugal S. Hämäläinen Suomen Pankki U. Bäckström Sveriges Riksbank E. George Bank of England IX I NSTITUTO MONETARIO EUROPEO Presidente Asesor del Presidente Relaciones Exteriores Auditor interno Gabinete de Prensa Director General Departamento de Departamento Departamento Sistemas de Información Monetario, Económico Secretaría General Administrativo y Comunicaciones y Estadístico Sistemas de Oficina de Estudios Personal y Información y Asesor Unidad mercados y Planificación Administración Comunicaciones financieros Soporte, Desarrollo y Secretaría del Oficina de Contratación y Proyectos de Consejo del IME y Segunda Fase Politica de Personal Infraestructura Archivo Estudios y Proyectos del BCE y Análisis Económico y planificación de Salarios y Beneficios Planificación de TI Monetario Sistemas de Pagos Servicios Proyectos del SEBC Análisis TARGET Presupuestario Administrativos y Seguridad Secretaría del Grupo de Equipamiento y Análisis Economías Trabajo de Sistemas de Oficina de Servicios conservación Nacionales Pagos de la UE y Sistemas Administrativos de Liquidación de Valores Oficina de SME/ECU Control y Organización Tercera Fase Estrategia Monetaria Supervisión bancaria Contabilidad y Análisis de Riesgos Marco Operativo Planificación Servicios exteriores Estudios Generales Asesoría Jurídica Secretaría Subcomité Traducción Política Monetaria Oficina de Estadística Estadísticas Económicas y Financieras Sistemas de Información y Area Administrativa Estadísticas Monetarias y Bancarias Estadísticas de Balanza de Pagos y Reservas Exteriores Biblioteca X Dirección del IME A. Lamfalussy (hasta el 30 de junio de 1997) Presidente W. Duisenberg (desde el 1 de julio de 1997) R. Raymond Director General H. K. Scheller Secretario General Jefe de la Secretaría General G. J. Hogeweg Director del Departamento Monetario, Económico y Estadístico P.-W. Schlüter Director del Departamento de Administración J. Etherington Director del Departamento de Sistemas de Información y Comunicaciones L. Hoogduin Asesor del Presidente Segunda línea (de izquierda a derecha): J. Etherington, P.-W. Schlüter, G. J. Hogeweg, L. Hoogduin. Primera línea: R. Raymond, W. Duisenberg, H. K. Scheller. XI Comité de Consejo del IME Comité Alternos Financiero Subcomité Subcomité Subcomité Grupo de Grupo de Grupo de Grupo de Grupo de Grupo de Grupo de Política de Política de Trabajo de Trabajo del Trabajo de Trabajo de Trabajo de Trabajo de auditor Monetaria Cambiaria Supervisión Sistemas de Billete Estadísticas Contabilidad Sistemas Expertos del Bancaria Pagos de la Europeo Informáticos Legales TARGET UE Comité financiero L. A. Rojo Banco de España J.-C. Trichet (hasta el 31 de agosto de 1997) Banque de France H. Tietmeyer (desde el 1 de septiembre de 1997) Deutsche Bundesbank E. George (hasta el 31 de agosto de 1997) Bank of England M. O’Connell (desde el 1 de septiembre de 1997) Central Bank of Ireland Presidentes del Comité de Alternos, Subcomités y Grupos de trabajo R. Raymond Comité de Alternos J.-J. Rey Subcomité de Política Monetaria F. Saccomanni Subcomité de Política Cambiaria T. de Swaan (hasta el 5 de enero de 1998) Subcomité de Supervisión Bancaria E.
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