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Virtual Voice Assistants Win Shih and Erin Rivero Table 4.1 Platform and UI Shifts

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Virtual Voice Assistants Win Shih and Erin Rivero Table 4.1 Platform and UI Shifts Chapter 4 Future Actions Win Shih Search is moving from a place of answers to a state of serving their customers in this transformation, iden- action. tifying a new service model centered on these new —Microsoft Voice Report 1 technologies. he AI-driven voice technology is described as a major disruptive technology trend.2 In this chap- Platform Shift Tter, we first review the future trends of voice technology and conversation AI. We then offer guid- Our relationship with computers and technology has ance and suggestions for preparing such changes at been evolving over time. Based on the way we interact the organizational and leadership level. with technology, Kinsella identified three technology platform and user interface shifts since the advent of the World Wide Web more than twenty-five years ago Looking Forward (see table 4.1).5 Websites and hyperlinks are the first generation of technology platforms and user inter- After a decade of development, conversational AI and faces that we use to interact with digital content and voice technology have progressed beyond the early services. The introduction of mobile devices and apps infancy stage and moved into a phase of mass adop- in the late 2000s expanded the apparatus for us to tion. According to Gartner’s Hype Cycle, which charts engage with the digital world. Conversational AI and the maturity, adoption, and business applications and voice technology elevate us to a new experiential level values of emerging technologies and innovations, of human-computer interaction. Although we are still voice assistant technology has now surpassed the ini- in the midst of voice-based platforms, Deloitte Con- tial proof-of-concept and marketing hype stages and sulting has already predicted that intelligent inter- entered into a zone that demands further realization faces will be the next breakthrough of human expe- May/June 2020 May/June of its value and fulfillment of expectations. Gartner rience platforms. Integrating a class of AI-powered has also upgraded voice assistant technology’s matu- solutions, such as affective computing, computer rity level from emerging to adolescent and predicted vision, sentiment analysis, and voice stress analy- that it will reach the mainstream adoption stage in a sis, the intelligent interface interacts with humans two-to-five-year time scale.3 In another analysis, both through gestures, gazes, head movements, and voices; Microsoft and Voicebot.ai reported that voice assis- detects their physical states, emotional conditions, alatechsource.org tant technology and conversational AI have crossed and moods through sensors; and responds to their the chasm of the early adopters phase and entered needs in the appropriate context.6 Deloitte expects the early majority of users stage in E. M. Rogers’s Dif- that we will see more progress in and growing appli- fusion of Innovation theory.4 We anticipate that AI- cation of affective computing in the next eighteen to powered voice technology will gain more traction twenty-four months. and move closer to a central and powerful position in Throughout the process, each platform shift intro- our evolving digital transformation. Meanwhile, end duces advanced technologies that enhance the old users will accelerate the adjustment to a lifestyle— methods, create innovative ways of conducting busi- as well as the formation of an even-closer personal ness, and generate values and efficiencies. Through- Library Technology ReportsLibrary Technology partnership—with voice assistants. It is imperative for out the transition, it is common to see established organizations to shift their worldview of working and companies dislodged by start-ups, traditional business 34 Virtual Voice Assistants Win Shih and Erin Rivero Table 4.1 Platform and UI shifts Platform & UI Time Technologies Devices Open Standards Key Market Players Web & links Mid- Internet, web browser PC HTML, HTTP AOL, Microsoft, 1990s Netscape, Yahoo Mobile apps & 2008 Wi-Fi, iOS/Android, Mobile devices Wi-Fi, Android Facebook, Instagram, touch/swipe/pinch cloud computing LINE, Twitter, What- sApp, YouTube, Uber, Lyft, Yelp Voice assistants & 2011 AI, natural language Mobile devices, smart Standardizing natural Amazon, Apple, conversational UI processing speakers language process and Google, Microsoft AI technologies Intelligent interfaces/ Near Auditory analytics, Wearable devices, ges- N/A Up for grabs affective computing future augmented/virtual ture control devices, reality, cloud and edge smart headsets, AR computing, computer goggles, sensors vision, Internet of Things, 5G network models displaced by new paradigms, and consumer resources, organizations can afford to commit to only behavior transformed. The platform shift from web to one proprietary technology. Selecting the appropriate mobile apps created new entrants and a new segment voice platform that fits the organization’s unique busi- of business. Lyft and Uber (ride hailing), Facebook ness situation and customer needs is a strategic deci- and Instagram (social networking), and Yelp (local sion. Although all the core players in voice assistant business reviews) are prominent examples. technology overlap in providing basic functionalities, At this early stage of the voice platform shift, the each individual option has its own strengths and spe- business model is still hazy and the technology stan- cializations. For example, Amazon dominates in the dards have yet to be settled. For major tech companies areas of online shopping and control of smart home that dominate the web and mobile app platforms, the devices while Google has a stronghold in the content stakes are high and the competition is fierce. Top play- and search arena. To differentiate, Microsoft devises ers have invested billions of dollars in voice assistants a two-dimensional matrix that maps four key players and smart speakers to ensure they continue to domi- based on two criteria: nate their existing market position and maintain com- ReportsLibrary Technology petitive advantages with the new voice technology. 1. Ability to access and control IoT and home man- Amazon and Google are reported to sell their devices agement devices (vertical axis) below the cost of producing them in order to gain mar- 2. Ability of fulfilling purchasing request (horizon- ket share.7 Amazon reported having a team of 10,000 tal axis)12 employees working on Alexa alone.8 At Amazon’s job site, there are currently over 2,700 Alexa-related open The four quadrants generated within this two- positions, ranging from software development (1,304 dimensional grid represent key mastery of voice assis- vacant positions) to marketing and PR (77 positions).9 tant performance. These four areas are In 2017, Microsoft’s AI division had 8,000 employees alatechsource.org before its reorganization.10 Google draws employees 1. Knowledge: the ability to answer questions from related departments to support Google Assistant 2. Utility: the ability to access and control IoT instead of concentrating positions in one department devices or product team.11 3. Commerce: the ability to make purchases with voice commands 4. Productivity: the ability to integrate into work 2020 May/June Which Voice Technology? solutions In the current conversational AI landscape, voice Figure 4.1 provides a visualization of how the four assistant applications are not compatible. You can- voice assistants fit across this functional spectrum not summon Alexa on a Google Home device or based on these two factors. Amazon Alexa is strong Google Assistant on an Amazon device. With limited in both the utility and commerce masteries. Google 35 Virtual Voice Assistants Win Shih and Erin Rivero Figure 4.1 Functional spectrum (Source: Christi Olson and Kelli Kemery, Voice Report: From Answers to Actions: Customer Adoption of Voice Technology and Digital Assistants [Redmond, WA: Microsoft, 2019), 28, https://about.ads.microsoft.com/en-us/ insights/2019-voice-report.) Assistant and Microsoft Cortana are positioned close • Available across devices: Voice assistants will to the center of the grid, an indication that they are not be affixed to one specific device or platform as both doing equally well in these four areas. Apple’s they rapidly expand to other appliances, IoTs, and Siri plays well in both knowledge and productivity voice access points such as in-car voice assistants, masteries. smart watches, and smart home devices. Devices According to Microsoft, an ideal voice assistant will eventually assume a secondary role.15 In should perform equally well in all four areas and land another effort to make voice assistants less depen- itself close to the center of this diagram.13 This frame- dent on devices, Amazon and more than thirty work provides a tool for us to see the relative posi- companies signed the Voice Interoperability Ini- tions of key market players within the four functional tiative in September 2019 to make voice assistants areas. The visual snapshot further allows us to assess available on voice-activated devices from differ- how these competing technology providers are exe- ent vendors. However, Apple and Google are still cuting their stated visions and how well their product yet to sign onto this agreement.16 performs against the two key factors. • Multisensory: With new technologies, such as affective computing, voice assistants will be able May/June 2020 May/June to facilitate our engagement with the digital world Evolving Voice Assistants through a broad range of human senses: visual, aural, kinesthetic, and tactile. According to Gar- As AI-powered voice technologies advance and use ner, in the future, digital assistants will sense users’ cases expand, we are likely to see the following devel- intent from voice, gesture, and touch and thus pro- opments in the next few years: vide a richer experience for conveying nuanced alatechsource.org 17 contextual information. Voice technology will • Ubiquitous: Voice assistants will be omnipres- further combine with other technologies, such as ent as they continue to proliferate and penetrate virtual reality, augmented reality, and mixed real- our daily life. As one example, Amazon has been ity, to provide an immersive user experience.
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