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Appendix a – Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Soils Using UK Climate Projections

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Appendix a – Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Soils Using UK Climate Projections Appendix A – Modelling the impact of climate change on soils using UK climate projections Work Package 1 & 2 Defra Project SP0571 Use of ‘UKCIP08 Scenarios’ to determine the potential impact of climate change on the pressures/threats to soils in England and Wales Work Package 1 & 2 David Cooper1, Claire Foster2, Paul Hallett3, Peter Hobbs2 Brian Irvine4, Mike Kirkby4, Ragab Ragab5, Barry Rawlins2 Pete Smith6, Dave Spurgeon5, Andy Tye2 1Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bangor 2British Geological Survey 3Scottish Crop Research Institute (SCRI) 4Leeds University 5Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford 6Aberdeen University Contents A1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 5 A2. Carbon ............................................................................................................................ 6 1. RothC .................................................................................................................................................... 6 2. ECOSSE ................................................................................................................................................ 6 3. Daycent ................................................................................................................................................. 7 4. DNDC ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Carbon references ........................................................................................................................... 11 A3. Erosion ......................................................................................................................... 13 A. Water .................................................................................................................................... 13 1. RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) ..................................................................................... 13 2. Watershed Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) ..................................................................................... 14 3. EUROSEM (European Soil Erosion Model) ........................................................................................... 14 4. PESERA (Pan–European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment) ....................................................................... 14 B. Wind ..................................................................................................................................... 15 1. Simplified RWEQ (Revised Wind Erosion eQuation) .............................................................................. 16 2. WEELS (Wind Erosion on European Lights Soils) ................................................................................. 16 3. WEPS (Wind Erosion Prediction System) ............................................................................................... 17 4. WEQ (Wind Erosion Equation) ............................................................................................................... 17 Erosion references .......................................................................................................................... 18 A4. Contaminants ............................................................................................................... 20 A. Diffuse Agricultural Contaminant Models ....................................................................... 21 A.1 Nitrate models ....................................................................................................................................... 21 A.2 N2O models ........................................................................................................................................... 26 A.3 Phosphorus models ............................................................................................................................... 31 B. Pesticides and Organic Contaminants .............................................................................. 35 B.1. EUROPEARL ....................................................................................................................................... 36 B.2 POPPIE ................................................................................................................................................ 36 C. Acidification ......................................................................................................................... 41 C.1 The Very Simple Dynamic Model (VSD) .............................................................................................. 42 C.2 MAGIC ................................................................................................................................................. 42 D. Inorganic Contaminants ..................................................................................................... 46 E. Generic water / soil borne models ..................................................................................... 48 E.1 Generic models for soil borne contaminants ........................................................................................ 49 E.2 Generic models for water borne contaminants ..................................................................................... 49 Contaminant references ................................................................................................................. 49 A5. Compaction................................................................................................................... 52 1. Workable Days .................................................................................................................................... 53 2. Expert Model ....................................................................................................................................... 53 3. Mechanistic Model .............................................................................................................................. 54 Compaction references ................................................................................................................... 58 A6. Landslides ..................................................................................................................... 59 1. Antecedent Water Status Model .......................................................................................................... 60 2. Downscaling of General Circulation models (GCM’s) ....................................................................... 60 3. Threshold values ................................................................................................................................. 61 3 4. Enhanced GeoSure model ................................................................................................................... 62 5. Slope Stability model .......................................................................................................................... 63 Landslides references ..................................................................................................................... 67 A7. Salinity .......................................................................................................................... 68 A. Terrestrial (“Plot Scale”) .................................................................................................... 68 A1. SALTMOD ............................................................................................................................................ 68 A2. HYDRUS ............................................................................................................................................... 68 A3. SALTMED ............................................................................................................................................. 69 B. Sea water intrusion ............................................................................................................. 71 B1. SWI ....................................................................................................................................................... 71 B2. SEAWAT ............................................................................................................................................... 72 B3. SHARP .................................................................................................................................................. 72 B4. SUTRA .................................................................................................................................................. 72 Salinity references ........................................................................................................................... 74 A8. Sealing .......................................................................................................................... 75 Sealing references ........................................................................................................................... 78 A9. Biodiversity ................................................................................................................... 81 1. GBMove .............................................................................................................................................. 81
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