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A Africa A.T. Kearney (consulting fi rm), 132, climate change and misconceptions 134, 137 about , 177–178 Abdullah, King of Saudi Arabia , 50 entrepreneurs in , 84–89 Abraaj Group , 84 AfriLabs , 87 accountability agile risk control (ARC) Chief Mobility Offi cers (CMOs) Apple-Foxconn example of , 34–35 and, 109 description of , 34–36 CSR and , 221, 223, 226 optimizers in , 35–36 cyber security and , 63, 91, 201 Pain Quotidien example of , 35–36 employees in risk culture and , 193 agility, risk culture with , 113 risk governance and , 313, 317, 326 AIDS activists , 227 risk management in crises and , 36 air bag recall , 101 skin in the game approach and , 113 Airbnb , 28–30 transactional risk management and , Airbus A380 aircraft , 299–300 269 aircraft manufacturing , 299–300 Adoboli, Kweku , 338 airline industry A ff ordable Care Act , 37 air traffi c control system problems Afghanistan and, 20, 209 deaths from terrorism attacks in , deterrents creating new risks in , 19 124 Germanwings Flight 9525 crash migration from , 115 (2015) and, x, 18, 19, 333 U.S. military policy in , 43, 74, 122, Malaysia Airlines 370 loss (2014) 140 and, 19, 51 AFIG Capital , 84 risk losses and , 62

© Th e Author(s) 2016 383 D. Wagner, D. Disparte, Global Risk Agility and Decision Making, DOI 10.1057/978-1-349-94860-4 384 Index airline industry (cont.) risk resilience in risk management risk management in , 113 and, 294–295 system-wide risk in , 19–20 South Korean software company air traffi c control system problems , 20, example in, 292 209 staying ahead of curve in , 305–306 air travel transactional risk and , 290–291 malfunctions aff ecting , 209, 210 transitioning from ERM to , 293–294 passenger screening used in , 93 unanticipated crises and , 300 perception of risk in , 93 Anti-Defamation League , 291 terrorism costs for , 130 Antifragile (Taleb) , 26 Akinyemi, Tayo , 87 antifragile domain, in risk distribution , Algeria , 65–66 27, 30 algorithmic decision making , 67, 85 Antofagasta , 157, 160 algorithmic trading fi rms, 22, 100, apartheid , 78 212 Apple , 24, 32, 34–36, 78, 106, 177, Alibaba , 201 200, 211, 232, 339, 341 Al Qaeda , 124, 129–130, 143, 204 Apple Pay , 56, 211–212, 232 American International Group (AIG) , Arab Awakening , 89 33, 57, 296, 316–317 country risk analysis impacted by , Amnesty International , 154 251–254 Andersen, Arthur E. , 298 disillusionment with U.S. response Anonymous (hacker) , 202 to , 139 anticipatory risk management (ARM) , instability after , 140, 146 vii, 289–306 Arab Spring , 49, 109, 187, 214, 309 board involvement in , 295–298 Argentina , 149 BP’s Deepwater Horizon crisis economic nationalism in , 145 example of , 304 fi nancial problems of , 57 business continuity management oil production in , 150–151 and, 301–302 arms control , 171 crisis management and , 300, 302 Arthur Andersen (AA) , 296, 298–299, defi nition of , 289 313 factors aff ecting impact of crisis in , Asian Development Bank (ADB) , 303–304 135–136, 240 grey swan events and , 290–291, 293 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank , internal weaknesses and , 300–301 325 media relations and , 302–305 Asia Pulp and Paper (AP&P) , 228 moral compass in decision making Assad, Bashir , 79, 168 and, 299 Assange, Julian , 201 organization’s moral compass and , asset-less economy, and risk , 27–30 298–299 asset price collapse, risk from , 7–8, 314 Palestinian fast food restaurant Association of Southeast Asian Nations example in, 290–291 (ASEAN), 164 perception of risk in , 303–305 audit committees , 17, 33 Index 385 audit function, in risk management , sanctions and , 168 23, 270, 297 systemically important fi nancial auditors, and Enron , 298–299, 313 institutions (SIFIs) in , 33, 59–60, auto insurance , 28–30, 191 96, 104, 211, 316–318 automotive industry too-big-to-fail approach in , 58, 60, air bag recall in , 101 96, 99, 316–318 emission standards in , 29, 54, 188, U.S. stability in , 133 189, 330, 333 bankruptcies OnStar guidance system problems of companies , 83, 292, 298 and, 20, 210 of government institutions , 47, 57 reputation risk examples in , 54–57 of Lehman Brothers , 58 risk management structure in , 100 Puerto Rico and , 47, 59 banks . See also central banks; multilateral development banks B (MDBs) and specifi c banks and Bahrain , 139, 252 bankers Bali, terrorist attack (2002) on , 130 country risk analysis and investment bankers by , 240, 251 hypercompetition among banks for , cyber-attacks on , 207–208, 229 315 decline in lending by , 255 pay and bonus caps for , 318 export credit insurance through, banking industry 336 in Africa , 85–86, 188 hypercompetition for talent among , Apple Pay and , 24 315 boom and bust cycles in , 33–34 pay and bonus caps in , 318 complexity and cyber risk in , 229 profi t motive of , 314 FDIC and depositor comfort in , 319 reputational risk and , 296 federal regulation of , 5, 21 risk management by , 21, 23, 271 government bailouts in , 57, 98–99, rogue trading activity in , 300 181 system risk in , 61–62 LIBOR manipulations in , 69–70 terrorist attacks against , 126 London Whale trading losses and , transactional risk and , 271–272 71, 97, 99, 337, 338 Barclays , 69, 70 moral hazard in , 33, 34 Barings Bank , 300 need for cyber FDIC in , 205–208 Barrick Gold Corporation , 154, 157, online commerce zero-liability 160 policies and, 202, 206 Basque confl ict, in Spain , 135 organizational values in , 73–74 behavior incentives, in insurance , 191 public interest in problems of , 100 Beirut, IS attack (2015) in , 140 risk-averse business climate and , 254 Benioff , Marc , 78 risk connotations in , 21 Berkshire Hathaway , 61 risk taking and profi t making culture Berlusconi, Silvio , 72 in , 32–33 Beretta , 80 386 Index

Betancourt, Ingrid , 182 Bougainville copper mine, Papua New Bhopal, India, disaster (1984) , 32 Guinea , 153, 239 BHP Billiton , 154, 157 Branson, Richard , 91 bicycles, as urban transportation , 103, Brazil , 148 176, 183 Bolivia’s land loss to , 148–149 biodiversity , 185 Chevron Brazil oil spill (2014) in , BlackRhino Group , 84 110 Blackstone , 84 BRCK (mobile internet platform) , 87 Black Swan (Taleb) , 26 Breast Cancer Fund , 227–228 black swan events , 26, 30, 31, 97 bribery , 72, 75, 77, 108, 111, 231, boards of directors 240, 317 anticipatory risk management and , BRICS countries , 108, 257 295–298 BRICS’ New Development Bank , 325 composition of , 295–297 Bright, Jake , 89 corporate decision making by , 15, British Gas , 148 271, 297 British Petroleum (BP) cross-border risk and , 249–251 Deepwater Horizon (Macondo) CSR and , 226 Gulf of Mexico oil spill (2010) governance and , 223, 272 and, 31–32, 35, 54, 110, 302, Lehman Brothers example of 339 involvement of , 295–296 Texas City Refi nery explosion risk management and , 13, 95, 98, (2005) and , 296 264, 268, 288, 297 B u ff et, Warren , 61 risk oversight committee on , building standards , 180 13, 72 Bush, George W. , 37, 79, 130 selecting members for , 296–297 business continuity management separation of powers between CEOs (BCM), 301–302 and, 72, 338 businesses transactional risk management and , cyber risk responses of , 204–207 273–275 cyber risk’s costs to , 204 values in leadership and authenticity cyber risk’s destructiveness to , 199 and, 78 terrorism and , 126, 129, 143–144 Boko Haram, 5, 91–92, 124, 127, trust of , 38, 68, 69, 72, 340 218 business models , 64, 275 Bolivia antifragility in , 27 foreign direct investment (FDI) in , of Big Five auditors , 298 151 entrepreneurs and , 38 land lost by , 148–149 held for ransom , 202, 204, 207, 217 seizure of foreign-owned assets in , new approaches to risk and , 277 146–150 risk agility and , 25 Bolloré Africa Logistics , 84 Uber’s example of , 27–29 Boston, snow storms (2014/2015) in , business prevention functions , 15, 23, 183–184 25, 95, 102, 337 Index 387

C Chevron , 154 Cambridge Center for Risk Studies , 51 Chevron Brazil , 110 carbon dioxide (CO2 ) , 187, 189, 196 Chief Executive Offi cers (CEOs) carbon emission standards , 29 confl ation of chairman role with, carbon use, and climate change , 175, and risk management failures , 178, 187, 196, 230, 235 15–16, 338 Cargill , 228 separation of powers between boards Caribbean Basin , 46–49 and, 72, 338 energy investment in , 44–47, 49 Chief Financial Offi cers (CFOs) , 13, energy security issues in , 48 109, 229–230, 245 grey economy of , 47–48 Chief Gender Equality Offi cers , 67 Cars2Go , 176 Chief Happiness Offi cers , 67 cartels, in oil , 72 Chief Investment Offi cers (CIOs) , 98, Castro, Fidel , 146 337, 338 catastrophe bonds (cat bonds) , 63, Chief Mobility Offi cers (CMOs) , 109 192–196 Chief Risk Offi cers (CROs) disadvantages of , 194–195 in companies , 13, 98, 102, 313, features of , 192–194 337, 338 investment appeal of , 195–196 proposed national , 63–64 catastrophe insurance programs , 63, child labor, policies against , 240 178, 179 Chiquita Brands (company) , 232 catastrophes . See natural catastrophes Chile, 148, 149, 157, 283, 348 and disasters and specifi c events China Cemex , 146 Apple Pay in , 211 Central America Apple’s manufacturing partners in , energy investment in , 44, 45 232 investment disputes in , 151 claim over Senkaku Islands of , 164, central banks 165 infl ation in Brazil and , 343 FDI by , 163–164 legal/regulatory risks and land disputes between Philippines independence of , 286 and , 164–165 loans to Greece and , x–xi Myanmar’s energy policies and , sovereign risk and , 247 160–163 CFAO , 84 Russia’s relations with , 169, 170 chairmen–CEO role confl ation, and smog crisis in , 183 risk management failures , 15–16, trust of , 69 338 Western nations and , 164 Chan, Julius , 156 Chinalco , 111 Charter of Fundamental Rights (EU) , China National Petroleum Corporation 75, 307 (CNPC) , 161 Chavez, Hugo , 146, 149, 150 China North Industries Corporation, 162 check-the-box approach to risk China Power Investment Corporation , management, 17, 21, 22, 113 161 388 Index

Christensen, Clayton , 25 weather changes related to , 42 cigarettes, ban on selling , 236 weather induced creative-destructive Citic Securities , 212–213 cycle in , 179–180 cities , 50–52 Climate Change Conference (UN) , bankruptcies of , 57 308 insurance penetration in , 52 climate risk population of , 50 economic impact of , 115, 178, 184, risk index for , 52 189 Clean Air Act , 55 leadership needed to confront , 180 climate change , 173–197 long-range scenario planning in , 114 broad commitment needed in , 178 management strategy needed for , businesses and , 226 190, 192, 196 catastrophe bonds (cat bonds) and , market-based solutions to , 174 192–196 resilience and , 115 debates about , 6–7, 173–174 City Risk Index , 52 de-risking , 178–181 coal-fi red power plants , 10, 183 as externality , 177–178 coal industry , 10, 146 fi nancial innovations in response to , Coca-Cola , 136, 227, 236, 299, 300 190–192, 196 Cold War food supply chains and , 187, 190 regime change under , 132 as global risk , 4, 6, 289, 325 nationalizations during , 148 government policy responses to , rise of new , 3, 65 181, 187–188 Cole (ship), terrorist bombing (2000) health changes and , 185–186, 189 of , 130 impacts of , 173, 174, 176–179, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) , 182–184 314 need for coordination on , 44 Colon Free Trade Zone , 45 organizations’ preparedness for, 114 competition, and moral hazard , 71–72 preventable consequences of , 180 competitive advantage private sector response to , 188–190 CSR and , 176, 177, 233 public responses to , 90, 92, 114, 331 entrepreneurial culture and , 87 readiness dilemma in , 181–188 environmental policy and , 331 reconstruction costs and , 180, 187, green strategy and , 233 196 risk agility and , 16, 35, 36 resilience and, 115, 178, 181, risk management as source of , 21, 188–189, 192 207, 218 risk management and , 307–309 on systemically important fi nancial scientifi c evidence for, 173, 196–197 institutions (SIFIs) and , 318 smog problems due to , 183 transparency and , 177 supply chain disruptions from , 190 complexity temperature changes and , 174, of CSR , 221 183–185, 328 cyber risk and , 218, 219 UN conference on , 308 regulatory , 21, 28, 38, 215–217 Index 389 complexity reduction , 31, 67–94 corporate social responsibility (CSR) , learned behavior and , 81, 82 221–243 simplicity and , 32, 89–94, 102 basic principles of , 223–224 sunlight and , 68–72 competitive advantage and , 176, tempering risk-taking levels with 177, 233 values and , 81–82 consumer response to , 231–233 three-dimensional risk management debate over company’s purpose and , and, 102 223–224 value systems and , 72–80 defi nitions of , 221–222 complex organizations examples of corporate challenges in , risk culture in , 103 234–237 risk management and , 30–31, 98 global business and , 222–226 complex systems importance of , 238–239 BP’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill (2010) information sharing and , 240–241 as example of , 31–32 interconnected pursuits and electricity blackout (2003) in obligations in, 222 North America as example of, move to acceptance of , 176–177 209–210 project fi nance and , 237–238 failure in complex ways of , 26, promoting in developing world , 30–34, 68, 209–210, 333 237–241 supply chains and quality control in , public/private sector collaboration 101 in , 240 compliance shareholder value and , 223, 229–231 CSR and , 221, 224, 230 social risk landscape and , 226–228 environmental , 159, 163, 230, 238, stakeholder engagement in , 228 239, 280 strategic partnerships and , 228–229 fear-based approach to , 334 trends concerning , 242–243 healthcare industry and , 216 Corruption Perceptions Index , 155 risk and , 280, 330, 331 cosmetics industry, safety policies in , risk managers and , 24, 95, 96, 227–228 102 country risk . See also cross-border risk social media report cards on , 340 analysis of , 248–249, 251–252 confi rmation bias , 41, 97, 333 Arab Awakening impact on , construction codes , 180 251–253 Convention Against Corruption (UN) , defi nition of , 245–246 225 Euro Crisis and , 258–259 Cook, Tim , 78, 341 evolving perception of , 256–257 copper mines example of board decision making Myanmar , 162 and, 249–251 Pakistan , 157–158 fi rm-specifi c versus country-specifi c, Papua New Guinea , 152–154 245–246 Corporate/NGO Partnerships government risks and instability Barometer , 229 risks and, 246 390 Index country risk (cont.) cross-border trade, protection of , 335 importance of developing corporate CVS , 236 approach to, 263–264 cyber-attacks management of , 245–264 business processes for identifying need for information for decision risk of , 13 making on, 249 evolution of , 199 political forecasting and , 261–263 frequency of , 202 possible increase in , 254–255 impact of , 202–203, 208 social and political risks and , internet of things and , 210–211 259–261 lawsuits following , 114, 205 sovereign risk and , 246–247 perception of Snowden and Assange trade protectionism and , 255–256 in , 201, 202 transactions and risks related to , public awareness of , 202, 217 247–248, 269 Sony attack as example of , 25–26, Crimea, Russia’ annexation of , 54, 168, 202–205 175–176 USA–Russian relations and crop failures, weather-related , 190 allegations of , 171 cross-border investment , 138 cyber breaches , 91 analysis of risks in , 248–249 China’s involvement in , 209 consumer behavior and , 136 communicating bad news about, 208 decision making in , 253–254 costs of , 207–208 example of board decision making responses to , 204, 219 in , 249–251 tradeoff s between civil rights and expatriate risk in , 111 privacy and prevention of , government policy and possible 200–201, 216, 218 losses in , 159 transparency about , 80, 204–205, international banking and credit 218 systems and, 254 cyber crime and criminals , 7, 199 need for information for decision costs of , 8, 203–204 making on, 249 Snowden and Assange as , 201, 202 political instability and risk and , cyber espionage, limitations of , 240, 247 216–217 protection of , 39, 335 cyber liability insurance , 27, 205, 220 cross-border risk , 3 . See also country cyber risk , 199–220 risk agile response to , 217–220 analysis of , 248–249, 258–259 blurred lines in response to, 216–217 assessment of , 263, 273 business awareness of , 199 exposures to , 275 cities as targets of , 51 global economy and , 248 collaboration in response to , 219 increase in , 254 consequences of , 8, 199 management of , 248, 257, 264 costs of , 203–204 proposed solutions for , 335 data lacking on , 333 security risks and , 287 ethical hackers and , 20, 68, 201, 210 Index 391

eyes wide open approach to , 218 cyber warfare , 63 factors aff ecting response to , cyber brinksmanship between 200–201 countries and, 209 global approach to , 325 state-sponsored , 199 government regulations and , 204, cyber weapons , 208–210 215 cyclones , 8, 175, 185 healthcare industry and , 215–216 industrialization of , 204 interconnected global economy and , D 217 databases, identifi cation of global IT security professionals and , 219 shocks using, 10 losses from , 203–204 decision making national infrastructure vulnerability complexity and , 67 to , 208, 209 risk managers and , 24, 68 need for cyber FDIC approach to , values-based , 78–79 205–208 Declaration on Fundamental new standards of practice needed Principles and Rights at Work for , 206 (ILO) , 225 organizational resilience to, 215, Deepwater Horizon (Macondo) 220 Gulf of Mexico oil spill organizational responses to , (2010), 31–32, 35, 54, 110, 204–207, 218–219, 330, 339 302, 339 organizational structure impeding de Gaulle, Charles , 65 response to , 219 Delphi analysis , 42 prevention of , 219, 220 democracy risk management and , 20, 30, China’s policy on , 160, 162 218–219 in Latin America , 150 system-wide exposure to , 20 Muslims on , 124 transparency about , 204–205, 339 rise of extreme political movements wide variety of threats to data and and rise of , 172 systems in, 199 terrorism and , 137 zero-failure approach in , 211, democratic elections 218–219 Arab Awakening and , 252 cyber risk managers , 219 economic nationalism and , cyber security , 216 145–146, 148, 172 limitations of , 216–217 FDI and , 150 tradeoff s between civil rights and democratic forms of government, privacy and prevention in , and number of terrorist 200–201, 216, 218 attacks , 134 cyber terrorism , 202–205 denial of service (DoS) attacks , 203, impact of , 202–203 209 Sony attack as example of , 202–203 Department of Homeland Security state-sponsored , 8, 199, 202 (DHS), 43, 63 392 Index

developed countries institutionalization of democratic country risk management by , 257 elections in, 145–146, 172 global economic crises and , 3 insurance penetration in , 52, 189, globalization and growth patterns in , 191–192 248 integration into global economy of , impact of terrorism on , 128, 129 120–121 industrialization of agricultural NGO pressure on companies doing production in , 187 business in, 226 integration into global economy of , perception of investment risk in , 120–121 256–258, 278 perception of investment risk by , perceived marginalization and 256–258 economic inequity of , 309, 325 ‘political’ risk in , 336 personnel assignments to , 108, 109, population of , 6 112 post-9/11 FDI in , 132, 255 ‘political’ risk in , 336 security measures in , 129, 131 post-9/11 FDI in , 131–133, 255 transactional risk analysis of events rise of economic nationalism in , in , 273 145–146, 172 World Bank’s “Doing Business” risk from catastrophic losses in , 107 report on , 278–279 security measures in , 129, 131 developing countries social responsibility promotion in , business challenges of operating in , 237–242 146–147 transactional risk analysis of events China’s infl uence in , 163–164, 349 in , 273 climate change and , 177, 181–183, World Bank’s “Doing Business” 186, 331 report on , 278–279 corruption and fraud in , 108 development . See economic CSR and , 237–241 development dependence on FDI and export-led devolution process, in developing growth in , 137 countries, 146, 172 devolution process in , 146, 172 Dimon, Jamie , 33, 98, 337, 338 disaster relief response in , 181, 182 disaster planning, and business economic development and trade continuity management (BCM), competitiveness in , 308 301–302 entrepreneurship in , 39 disaster preparedness , 43, 44, 66, 107, global economic crises and , 3 324 global institutions and , 76, disaster relief . See also emergency services 308–309, 325 agencies for , 181 globalization and growth patterns in , developing and emerging countries 248 and, 181, 182 impact of terrorism on , 128, 129 lack of coordination in , 43 income inequality in , 350 disasters . See natural catastrophes and income of middle classes in , 348 disasters and specifi c events Index 393 diseases . See also specifi c diseases in Papua New Guinea , 156, 157 climate change and , 183, 185–186 terrorism reduced by , 134 water supply and , 6 economic growth WHO role in , 324 of Asia , 119 diversifi cation of emerging and developing economic, by governments , 50, 179 economies, 108 energy industry and , 44, 46, 49, of Panama , 44 182, 187 risk analysis and , 285 FDI and , 133 terrorism risk and , 135, 137 investors and , 192–195 economic nationalism , 171 risk management and , 27 democratic elections and , 145–146, Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and 148, 172 Consumer Protection Act, FDI and , 147 17–18 international business and , 172 Dominican Republic , 47 middle-class consumption and , 349 Drew, Ina , 338 rise of , 145–146 droughts , 6, 44, 175, 177, 182, 183, economic risk , 25, 191 185, 187, 331, 342 asset-less economy and , 27–28 Dulles Airport, air traffi c control system catastrophe bonds and , 193 malfunction (2015) at, 209 fi nancial intervention and bailouts and , 57 fi nancial risk linked to , 58 E interconnected global aspects of , 8–9 earthquakes IS recruiting and , 38 ripple eff ects of, 290 perception of , 8 Taiwan (1999) , 290 Puerto Rico and , 58 Tohoku (Sendai), Japan (2011) , transactional risk and , 269 108, 192, 195, 196 Economist (magazine) , 16, 70 Washington, D.C. (2011) , 31 Ecuador , 151, 283 Earthworks , 232 Edelman Trust Barometer , 69 Ebola pandemic (2014) , 4–5, 88, 89, Egypt , 257 182, 186, 278, 320, 324 internet cable sabotage in , 214 Ecomagination initiative (GE) , 231, political change in , 214, 252, 253 234–235 electrical storms , 214 economic Darwinism , 38 electric vehicles , 176, 191 economic development electricity blackout (2003), North cities and , 51 America, 209–210 company projects and , 154 electricity generation and supply economic nationalism and , 171 in Brazil , 341 FDI and , 134 in Caribbean , 46–48 in India , 119 in developing countries , 278 infrastructure investment and , 46 energy security and , 48 mobility and , 188 in Myanmar , 161, 162 394 Index electricity generation and supply (cont.) transitioning to ARM from , in Panama , 44, 46 293–294 project fi nance for , 237 entrepreneurs vulnerability of , 208, 210, 322 in Africa , 84–89 electric utilities economic and policy conditions in Caribbean , 46, 48 favoring, 38–39 in Puerto Rico, 47, 48, 59 green economy and , 177 as state-owned enterprises (SOEs) , 46 international eff orts to spur , 39 El Niño weather phenomenon , 42, 44, national security and , 37–39 46, 173, 182 risk culture and , 87 Elumelu, Tony , 85, 89 environmental risk emergency preparedness for disasters , interconnected global aspects of, 8–9 43, 44, 66, 107, 324 perception of , 8 emergency services , 31 . See also disaster Ermotti, Sergio , 338 relief ethical hackers , 20, 68, 201, 210 coordination in , 43 Ethiopia , 177 risk prediction and , 43, 63, 174 European Bank for Reconstruction and emerging countries Development , 325 China’s infl uence in , 164 European Central Bank (ECB) , x, xi climate change and , 182–183 European Union (EU) disaster relief response in , 181 common goals of , 307 global economic crises and , 3 governance under charter of , 307 personnel assignments to , 108, 109, Greek debt and , xi 112 issues within , 65, 66, 260, 321 ‘political’ risk in , 336 nationalism in , 66 risk from catastrophic losses in , 107 open borders policy of , 115, 144 emission standards refugee crisis response in, 75, 144, automotive , 29, 54, 188, 189, 330, 333 217 climate change and , 180, 187 Russian trade with , 167, 170 encryption , 204, 216 social spending in , 259 energy effi ciency , 177 Europe, migration crisis (2015) in , 115 energy industry expatriate risk , 111–112 China’s infl uence on , 160–163 in emerging and developing Myanmar’s policies on , 160–163 economies, 108, 109 Panama generation issues and , liability in , 109 44–46, 182 organizational responsibility and , energy technologies, research needed 111–112 on , 178 preventive measures against , 111–112 Engle, Robert , 60 export credit agencies (ECAs) , Enron , 90, 296, 298–299, 312–313 241–242, 311 enterprise risk management (ERM) , export credit insurance , 336 35, 63, 271 Export Import Bank (Ex-Im), description of , 22–23 310–312, 336 Index 395

ExxonMobil , 148, 152, 156–157 V-Lab’s systemic risk rankings of , 60 extremist political movements , 146 Financial Stability Board , 104, 324 Financial Stability Oversight Council, 59 Firestone , 296 F fi rm-specifi c country risk , 245–246 Facebook , 200, 202, 214, 262 5 R’s (Recruiting, Relocating, failing forward concept , 87, 106, 329 Rewarding, Retaining and failure Returning) , 109 business transformations and , 280 fl oods of complex systems , 26, 30–34, 68, building in areas prone to , 179 209–210, 333 fi nancial consequences of , 179 organizational fear of , 332 increasing severity of , 175, 185 risk culture and , 103, 104 insurance against , 63, 178 zero-failure approach to , 93, 211, in Pakistan (2010) , 181–182 218–219 predicting and preventing , 180 fairness, and CSR , 223 reconstruction costs following , 179, famines , 7, 177 180 fast food chains , 290–291 in Th ailand (2011) , 114, 190 FDI . See foreign direct investment unanticipated business eff ects of, FDI Confi dence Index , 132 190–191 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation walls protecting against , 174 (FDIC) , 63, 206, 207, 310, 319 food, genetically modifi ed , 229 Fédération Internationale de Football food service companies , 36, 80, 226, Association (FIFA) , 54, 68, 71 290, 291, 349 fi nancial crisis (2008) , 23, 99 food supplies fi nancial industry climate change and , 185, 187 moral hazard and, 71, 213, migration and , 7, 186, 187 316–317 water shortages and , 6 risk management in , 99–100 food supply chain fi nancial institutions climate-related risks to , 187 government bailouts of , 57, 98–99, crop failure insurance for risks to , 190 181 problems in , 77, 80 risk identifi cation in , 100–101 foot and mouth disease , 321 too-big-to-fail approach in , 58, 60, Forbes (magazine) , 79 96, 99, 316–318 Ford , 55, 56, 188 fi nancial models , 6, 23, 89, 282 forecasting models , 138 fi nancial regulation process , 17–18, 30, foreign direct investment (FDI), 211 country risk and , 254, 255 fi nancial risk government-to-government relations economic risk linked to , 58 and, 137–138 transactional risk and , 269 political violence and , 135, 153 fi nancial services industry , 316 terrorism risk and , 127, 128, risk management in , 21, 52, 100 131–138 396 Index

Fox, Vicente , 150 Global Compact (UN) , 225, 229, 241 Foxconn , 34–35, 177, 232 Global Health Institute , 324 fracking , 44–45, 234 globalization Fragile Domain, in risk distribution , 27 advent of , 3 France , 72, 76, 84 CSR and , 222–226 aircraft manufacturing in , 299–300 national economies and , 150 de Gaulle in Algeria and , 65 terrorism and backlash against , Muslim population in , 65 119–122 terrorist attack on Paris (2015) and , wealth inequality among nations 130, 140, 142, 144, 216–217 and, 121–122 Uber in , 29 global middle class, rise of , 7, 348–350 Freeport mine, Indonesia , 239 Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) , 224 Friedman, Milton , 222 global risk Friedman, Th omas , 34 birth and growth of the IS and , 5 Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Ebola pandemic (2014) as example Colombia (FARC) , 182 of , 4–5 Fukushima, Japan, nuclear disaster environmental issues and , 6–7 (2011), 294, 304 Great Recession and , 5–6 map of , 9 number of people over age of 60 G and, 6 Gallup polls , 122–124 perception of , 7–9 gas production, in Caribbean Basin , population growth and , 6 44–45 water scarcity and , 6 Gazprom , 146 global shocks General Accounting Offi ce , 63 defi nition of , 10 General Electric (GE) , 231, 234–235, frequency of , 10 311, 336 monetary impact of , 11 General Motors (GM) , 20, 55, 57, 210 preparing for , 10–12 Generally Accepted Accounting uncertainty and incomplete Principles (GAAP) , 230 information about, 12 genetically modifi ed food , 229 Global Sullivan Principles (GSP) , 224 Geneva Convention , 74, 340–341 Global warming . See also climate geomagnetic storms , 322 change Germanwings Flight 9525 crash as global risk , 6 (2015), x, 18, 19, 333 public awareness of , 65, 174, 233 Germany , 76, 133, 299, 311 Goldman Sachs , 233 climate change and , 190 gold mines global economy and , 65 Pakistan , 157–158 inequality in , 259 Papua New Guinea , 152, 154, 155, migrant crisis and , 75, 76, 334 239 Russian sanctions and , 167 Good Judgment Project , 345 Gini Coeffi cient , 259 Google , 67, 73, 200, 211, 213 Index 397

Google Wallet , 211–212 terrorism and FDI in , 135 governance . See also risk governance unemployment in , 259 boards and , 271, 272 Greenberg, Hank , 33, 296, 317 corruption and , 155, 222 Greenberg, Jack , 227 CSR and , 222–224, 227, 229, 233 green companies , 235 moral hazard and , 72 green economy , 177, 182 political risk insurance and , 240 green energy strategy , 46 risk culture and, 104–105 greenhouse gases , 234 risk management and , 17, 22–24, 72 green initiatives , 234, 235 terrorism risk and , 136 green strategy (being ‘green’) , 176, 177, transparency in, 339, 340 231, 233, 235–236 government grey swan events , 290–291, 293 devolution process and , 146, 172 gross domestic product (GDP) growth national values upheld by , 74–75 rates rate of terrorism attacks related to of African economies , 87 form of , 134 in Argentina , 151 trust of , 69 in Brazil , 341–343 government risks , 246 cities and , 51–52 Gravity Payments , 91 in G7 nations , 120–121 Great Recession , 49 in Puerto Rico , 47 country risk during , 255 risk assessment using , 283, 284 defi nition of , 99 in Russia , 170 global economic system fragility G7 nations , 120–121, 309 and, 3, 5–6, 18 Guardians of Peace (GoP) , 101, 202, government bailout during , 56, 57, 99 204, 207, 208 perceived risk during , 18 Guidelines for Multinational problems appearing after resolution Enterprises (MNEs), OECD , of , 8, 96 224–225, 241 protectionism during , 255 Gulf of Mexico oil spill (BP quick spread of contagion during , Deepwater Horizon, 2010), 61, 96 31–32, 35, 54, 302, 339 reaction of major governments to , x, 6, 324 risk management structure during , 99 H risk within developed world refl ected Haiti , 47, 167 in , 3, 248 Haldane, Andrew , 32 systemic risk “transfers” during , 27 Hawaii , 48 Greece Hayward, Tony , 339 debt default (2015) of , x health fi nancial interventions in , x–xi, 57, climate change impact on , 185–186, 258 189 perception of risk in , x–xi, 257, 283 fi nancial incentives to maintain, spending policies of , 65 191 398 Index

healthcare industry growing intensity of , 6, 173, 175 cyber risk and data breaches in , insurance and , 179 215, 216 organizations’ preparedness for , 114, EU expenses on , 259 174 Obama reforms in , 37 as predictable risks , 42–43 resilience in , 215 reconstruction costs following , 180 health insurance , 196, 215 response coordination in , 43 Health Insurance Portability and risk modeling and prediction of , Accountability Act , 215 42–44 healthier products, Pepsi’s shift toward , Hurricane Sandy (2012) , 174–175, 235–236 184, 192, 196, 280, 331 health standards, and mining industry , hydropower , 44, 161, 182, 242 163 Herbert, Vincent , 35–36 H e r fi ndahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) , I 71–72 Ikea , 69, 77 Heritage Foundation , 48 Iksil, Bruno , 337 Hewlett-Packard (HP) , 303 income disparity, perception of risk H5N1 virus infection , 186 from , 8 Hidden Valley mine, Papua New indemnifi cation , 21, 179, 191 Guinea , 154 India , 134, 161, 169, 257, 309 Home Depot , 205, 207 disaster relief eff orts in , 182 Homeland Security, Department of economic development in , 119 (DHS), 43, 63 trade restrictions in , 256 Hruby, Aubrey , 89 trust in , 69 Hubler, Howard , 338 Indian Ocean human immunodefi ciency virus (HIV) , China’s access to , 161 37, 227 Malaysia Airlines 370’s loss over , 51 Human Rights Watch , 232 tsunami (2004) in , 107 Hungary , 76 Indonesia , 10, 19, 146, 228, 239, Huntington, Samuel , 119–120 309 Hurd, Mark , 303 inertia risk , 24 Hurricane Andrew (1992) , 194 information, complexity of , 67 Hurricane Haiyan (2013) , 42, information sharing 175typhoon organizational structure and , 326 Hurricane Irene (2011) , 174, 184 project fi nance and , 240–241 Hurricane Katrina (2015) , 42–44, reputation risk and global , 34 180–181, 192, 196 risk culture and , 104 Hurricane Patricia (2015) , 42, 175 infrastructure investment hurricanes , 42–44 in Africa , 84, 86, 87 catastrophe bonds and , 192–194 in Brazil , 341–343 global risk from , 6, 278 climate change resilience and , 181 governmental response to , 180–181 CSR and , 238–241 Index 399

in developing world , 121, 129, 155, local and global market integration 237 in , 181 electricity production and , 45, 210, longevity risk and , 6, 61, 191, 196 322 project fi nance and , 240 internet and communications resilience of , 190 security and, 208, 213–214 risk management and , 21 by Panama , 45, 46 types of hazards and , 315–316 in Papua New Guinea , 157, 158 insurance-linked securities , 63, 188, 192 placebo eff ect with , 24 insurance penetration project fi nance and , 237–238 in cities , 52 risk analysis and , 285 climate change and , 188–189 threats to , 210, 213, 214, 322 taxpayer loss and , 188–189 instability risks , 246 Inter-governmental Panel on Climate insurance Change , 185 against catastrophes , 178, 179, 195 International Accounting Standards climate change and , 180, 181, (IAS), 230 188–189 International Center for the Settlement against cyber liability , 27, 205, of Investment Disputes , 151 219–220 International Court of Justice (ICJ), in developing and emerging 165 countries, 191–192 International Labor Organization fear-based approaches to risk and , (ILO) , 224, 225 334, 335 International Labor Rights Forum , 232 against fl oods , 63, 178–179 International Monetary Fund (IMF) , good behavior incentives in , 191 49, 76, 149, 241, 308, 312, 319, government subsidies of , 178–179 324, 342 indemnifi cation in , 21, 179, 191 International Organization for longevity risk and , 6 Standardization (ISO), political risk (PRI) , 237–240, 335 23, 35 risk control using , 17 International Relief & Development risk management using, 218–219, (IRD) , 315 273 International Tribunal on the Law of risk mitigation using , 114 the Sea , 165 risk prevention and , 144 Interview, Th e (fi lm), 80, 202–204, against terrorism, in Pakistan , 206 135–136 investment wellness promotion and , 191 in Africa , 84 against wind storms , 179 in energy production , 44–45 insurance industry risk perception and , 18–19 building standards and , 180 terrorism risk and , 127–128 cyber-attacks and , 203–205, 215, 220 investment banks , 61, 315 fi nancial regulation of , 30 investors, catastrophe bonds (cat innovation in , 196 bonds) and, 195–196 400 Index

Iraq , 253 multilateral development banks European response to war in, 129, 136 and, 325 regional autonomy confl icts in , 146, Russian gas pipeline support in , 169 262 World Bank “Doing Business” sanctions against , 167 report on , 278–279 terrorism in , 5, 124, 132, 140 Japanese-Americans, World War II U.S. military policy in , 43, 74, 122, internment of , 74–75 127, 139, 140, 290 JC Penney , 83 Islam . See also Muslim countries; Jobs, Steve , 32, 106 Muslims John Hancock (company) , 191 rejection of Western ideals and Johnson, Ron , 83 growth of , 119–120 Johnson and Johnson , 77 Western views of , 65, 122, 124 Jones Act , 48 Islamiah, Jemaah , 130 Jordan , 139, 252, 282 Islamic extremist groups , 5, 122, 123, JP Morgan , 33, 60, 61, 71, 97–99, 140, 289 102, 337, 338 Islamic State (IS; Daesh) , 204 birth and growth of , 3, 5, 8, 140–141 K funding of , 138–141 Kaeser, Joe , 311 ‘home-grown’ terrorism related to , 5 kaizen , 100 infl uence of U.S. policy and , Kenya , 130, 155, 188, 213 139–140 Kerviel, Jérôme , 71 Paris attacks by , 130, 216 Keynes, John Maynard , 64 recruitment of youth by , 38, 141 Khaldun, Mohammed , 122 social media usage by , 141–142 Khameini, Ali , 168 Syria and , 334 Kirchner, Cristina , 150–151 terrorism attacks by , 124, 130 Knight Capital , 22, 100, 212 Islamophobia , 65 KPMG , 88 ISO 31000 , 23, 35 Kutubu oil fi eld, Papua New Guinea , Israel , 130, 134, 208, 291 154, 155 Italy , 5, 65, 72 Kuwait , 138, 142, 252

J L Japan , 76, 152 Lagarde, Christine , 312 automotive industry in , 108 Latin America , 59, 149, 348 China’s land claims and , 164, 165 consumer decisions in , 233 earthquakes and tsunamis in , 108, democracy in , 150 192, 193, 195, 196 nationalization policies in , 147–148, Fukushima nuclear disaster (2011) 151 in , 294, 304 Law of Land Warfare , 74 military capabilities of , 52 Lay, Ken , 312–313 Index 401

League of Nations , 307 Malaysia , 262, 283 learned responses, monkey studies of , Malaysia Airlines 370 loss (2014), 19, 51 80–81 Manila, terrorism measures in , 131 least developed countries manufacturing population of , 6 assembly problems from multiple integration into global economy of , sites in , 299–300 120 CSR and , 233 Lebanon , 139 reputation risk and , 296 Lehman Brothers , 58, 293–294 risk management in , 100, 101, Letpadaung copper mine, Myanmar , 332, 336 162–163 six-sigma approaches to, 93, 100, Lihir gold mine, Papua New Guinea , 103 154 workers and workplace safety in , Lincoln National Corporation , 60 34, 232 liquefi ed natural gas (LNG) project, Manulife Financial Corporation , 191 Papua New Guinea , 152–153, markets, business failures from inability 155, 156 to adapt to, 24–25 living wills, of systemically important marriage equality , 77–78, 341 fi nancial institutions (SIFIs) , 60, Mars , 88 96, 318 MasterCard , 211 Lloyd’s of London , 51, 188 McDonald’s , 136, 227, 337 Lockheed Martin , 15, 336 media London Inter-bank Off ered Rate anticipatory risk management and , (LIBOR) , 69, 194 302–305 London School of Hygiene and basic steps for communication Tropical Medicine , 324 using , 305 London Whale (JP Morgan trading BP’s Deepwater Horizon crisis loss) , 71, 97, 99, 337, 338 example of mishandling of , 304 longevity risk , 6, 61, 191, 196 perception of risk in , 303–305 Lubitz, Andreas , x, 333 trust of , 69 Lula da Silva, Luiz , 342 Merchant Marine , 48 MetLife , 59–61 Metrojet fl ight bombing, over Sinai M (2015) , 140 Mack, John , 338 Mexico , 42, 150, 175, 251 Macondo (Deepwater Horizon) Gulf of Middle East , 50, 108, 187, 233 Mexico oil spill (2010) , 31–32, Arab Awakening in , 140, 146, 251 35, 54, 110, 302, 339 China’s infl uence in , 169 Macy’s , 232 investment in , 250, 251 Madrid, terrorist bombing (2004) on , military confl icts in , 5, 53, 132, 130, 131 138, 175, 187, 347 maladies of affl uence , 186 oil industry in , 150, 161 maladies of poverty , 186 refugee crisis and , 75, 314, 320 402 Index

Middle East and North Africa banking culture and , 33, 34 (MENA), political change in, climate risks and , 178, 180 251–253 combating , 113, 181 migration economic and reputational losses climate change and , 187, 196 and, 112 European crisis (2015) from, 115, fi nancial industry and , 71, 213, 260 316–317 global impact of, 6, 7, 120, 186, 309 organizational decision making and , open borders policy and , 115 90, 96 refugee crisis and , 65, 66, 75–76, regulation and , 317 187, 309, 314, 320, 334 risk and , 71–72, 90 Milgram experiment , 315 mortgage-backed securities , 314 Millennium Development Goals , 225 mortgage brokers , 314 mining industry . See also copper mines; mortgage instruments , 314 gold mines mortgage insurance , 335 environmental issues and , 159 mosquito-borne illness , 185–186 Indonesia and , 239 M-Pesa program , 188 Myanmar and , 162–163 MTN , 218 Pakistan and , 157–160 Mugabe, Robert , 168 Papua New Guinea and , 152–155, Mulally, Alan , 56 239 multilateral development banks resource nationalism and , 158–159 (MDBs) , 325 mobile phones and devices , 24, 25, 51, government investment in , 155 87–88, 188, 206, 210, 218 political risk insurance and , 335 mobility project fi nance and , 240–242 economic development and , 188 public/private sector collaboration expatriate risk and , 108–109, 286 in , 240 government actions curtailing , Multilateral Investment Guarantee 110–111 Agency (MIGA), 239, 241 monetary transactions and , 188 multilateral organizations organizational priorities in, public policy making and , 4, 224 109–110 reliability of statistics on , 269–270 risk agility and , 108–110 risk governance and , 322, 324, 325 risk possibilities and , 4 multinational enterprises (MNEs) model error , 41, 98, 334 country risk and , 245 models . See business models; CSR practices and , 226 forecasting models; risk modeling ILO’s encouragement of , 224 Monitor Group , 87 OECD Guidelines for , 224–225, monkey studies, of learned responses , 241 80–81 Mubarak, Hosni , 51, 214, 253 Moore, Oklahoma, tornados , 179–180 Musk, Elon , 188 Morales, Evo , 146–150 Muslim countries . See also Islam moral hazard IS recruiting in , 141 Index 403

population growth in , 119–120 catastrophe bonds for, 192, Muslims 194–196 in France , 65 city density and , 51 in Myanmar , 163 crisis management after , 303 perceptions of West held by , economic risks from disruptions 122–124 after , 190–191 Western perceptions of, 65, federal approaches to , 63 122–124 insurance penetration and recovery Myanmar–China Oil and Gas Pipeline , from , 189 161, 162 internet infrastructure damage from , Myanmar Economic Holdings , 162 214 Myitsone Dam, Myanmar , 161–162 mass migration after , 7 preparedness for , 43, 44, 66, 107, 324 N rebuilding after , 179 National Academies of Sciences , 173 risk analysis and , 287 National Flood Insurance Program , 63 risk modeling of , 42, 193 National Guard , 43 near-fi eld communication (NFC) , 211 nationalism . See also economic ‘near-miss’ management , 30 nationalism; resource nationalism Newcrest Mining Limited , 154 in Afghanistan , 158 New Development Bank , 325 in Brazil , 150 New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina in Europe , 66, 260 (2015) in, 42–44, 180–181, 192, investment aff ected by , 292 196 in Latin America , 150, 151 NGOs . See nongovernmental in Pakistan , 158 organizations in Russia , 171 Nicaragua , 151 in South Korea , 292 Nielsen surveys , 232, 233 nationalization policies , 145 Nigeria , 85, 124, 155, 335 in Argentina , 150, 151 Boko Haram in , 5, 91–92, 124, in Bolivia , 147–150 127, 218 national security oil reserves in , 88 cyber hacker revelations and , 201 regional autonomy confl icts in , 146 cyber risk as threat to , 206 Nike , 34, 136, 227, 232 entrepreneurs and , 37–39 NKW Holdings , 154 HIV infection as threat to , 37 “no child labor” policy , 240 national risk pool for , 64 nongovernmental organizations protectionist policies and , 48 (NGOs) values shaping , 79 CSR programs and , 226 National Security Agency (NSA) , 200 global shock assessment and , 12 natural catastrophes and disasters project fi nance in mining and , 239 business processes for identifying public policy making and , 4 risk of , 13 trust of , 69 404 Index

no income, no job and no assets in Saudi Arabia , 49, 50 (NINJA) loans, 314 Shell’s understatement of reserves Nooyi, Indra , 235–236 and, 299 Norms on the Responsibilities of terrorism risk and , 137 Transnational Corporations and in Venezuela, 45 other Business Enterprises with oil sales regard to Human Rights (UN), China’s infl uence on , 161, 164, 169 225 economic growth and , 283 North Africa , 5, 65, 115, 140, 251, energy alternatives aff ecting , 48, 182 252 global market and , 166–168 North Atlantic Treaty Organization IS funding and , 140 (NATO) , 65, 66 oil production levels and , 170 Northern Rock , 296, 299 price cartel in , 72 North Korea , 52, 53, 68, 202, 204, Russia–Ukraine confl icts and, 282, 334 166–167 Norway , 133, 154, 259, 260 U.S. leverage in , 139 oil sands , 234, 235 Oil Search (company) , 154 O Ok Tedi copper mine, Papua New Obama, Barack , 37, 89, 203, 204 Guinea , 154 OECD countries Omidyar Network , 87 FDI in , 128 one-dimensional risk management , terrorist deaths in , 125 97–99, 101 OECD Guidelines for Multinational OnStar guidance system , 20, 210 Enterprises (MNEs) , 224–225, ‘Open Borders’ policy, in EU , 144 241 Organic Consumers Association , 226 O ffi ce of Management and Budget , 63 Organization of Economic Cooperation oil disasters and Development (OECD) , 6 BP Deepwater Horizon (2010), Gulf Guidelines for Multinational of Mexico, 31–32, 35, 54, 302, Enterprises (MNEs) of , 224–225, 339 241 Chevron Brazil (2014) , 110 Organization of Petroleum Exporting oil industry Countries, 62 Argentina politics and , 145, other people’s money , 32, 33 150–151 Overseas Private Investment Bolivian nationalization policy and , Corporation (OPIC) , 239, 241, 147–148 311 in Brazil , 110 Oxfam , 121 in Canada , 234, 235 in Middle East , 150, 161 in Nigeria , 88 P in Papua New Guinea , 152–154 Pain Quotidien , 35–37, 339 in Russia , 168–170 Pakistan , 134 Index 405

fl oods (2010) in , 181–182 in air travel screening , 92–93 foreign investments in , 157–159 in risk management , ix, 17, 19, 24, schools in , 126 97–98, 330 Taliban in , 106 Plouff e, David , 29 terrorism in , 125, 135–136, 138 political risk , 25, 226, 258 U.S. companies in , 232 country risk diff erentiated from, Palestine , 122, 290, 291 246–247 Panama, energy generation issues in , defi nition of , 247 44–46, 182 Export Import (Ex-Im) Bank and , Panama Canal , 45 310–311, 336 Panguna copper mine, Bougainville, FDI decisions and , 131, 132, 147 Papua New Guinea , 153, 239 fi rm-specifi c versus country-specifi c, Papua New Guinea (PNG) , 152–157, 245–246 239, 242 government risks and instability Paraguay , 149 risks and, 246 Paris increase in , 259–260, 310 confl icts in banlieues of , 51 interconnected global aspects of, 8–9 IS attack (2015) on , 130, 140, 142, nationalization policies and , 147 144, 216–217 perception of , 8, 132 vehicle ban (2015) in, due to smog , transactions and risks related to , 183 247–248, 269 Paris Climate Change Summit (2015) , political risk insurance (PRI) , 237–240, 177, 178 335 Parnell, Stuart , 77 political violence , 8 Pascal, Amy , 80 costs of , 144 Paulson, John , 59 in Europe , 260 Peanut Corporation of America , 77 FDI and , 135, 153 Pennsylvania State University (PSU) , globalization and , 350 133–134 project fi nance and , 237 People at Risk, databases for in Th ailand , 343–344 identifying, 10 population growth Pepsi , 235–237 climate change and , 185, 197 performance incentives , 71 impact of , 4, 6, 7, 50, 286 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) , in Muslim countries , 119–120 165 population size, related to national Perry, Rick , 318–319 economies, 76, 309 Peru , 149 Porgera gold mine, Papua New Guinea , Petrobras , 75, 110, 146, 148 154, 155 PetroCaribe alliance , 45 poverty PetroChina , 146 global programs for alleviation of , Pew Research Center , 123, 189 240, 308 phishing scams , 203, 206 insurance penetration and , 189 placebo eff ect maladies of , 186 406 Index poverty (cont.) information sharing and , 240–241 population change and , 6 multilateral development banks risk analysis and degree of , 285 (MDBs) and, 240–242 social transfer payments and , 259 protectionism , 349 terrorism links to , 126 country risk and , 255–256 water supply issues and , 6 global insurance markets and , 181 Prahalad, C.K. , 108, 347 impact of , 48–49 predictable risks, hurricanes as , 42–43 transactional risk and , 285 price cartels, in oil , 72 Prudential , 59–61 Principal Financial Group , 60 psychology Principles for Responsible Investment risk management and , 15, 33 (PRI), 225 risk perception and , 8 PRISM (NSA surveillance program) , public/private partnerships 200 corporate social responsibility and , privacy 240 cyber breaches and , 200, 217 public policy making and , 4 digital age and protection of, 216, Puerto Rico , 125 218 energy production in , 47, 48 global connectedness and , 202 fi scal crisis in , 47, 58–59 health regulation and , 215, 216 Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority as marketable asset , 202, 217, 220 (PREPA) , 47, 48, 59 right to , 68, 200 Putin, Vladimir , 79, 167, 168, 171, standards of care around , 205, 215 254, 334 Privacy Act , 215 privatization, and public policy making, 4 Q profi tability qualitative risk management , 12, 15, bank culture and , 32 97, 101, 268 country risk and , 245, 247, 261 quantitative fi nancial models and tools , CSR and , 221–223, 231, 236–237 12, 15, 23, 101, 258, 264, 269, distribution of risk , 26–27, 42 270, 287 expatriate risk and , 111 Qatar , 138, 139, 152, 252 global fi nancial crisis and focus on , 314 regulatory burdens and , 29 R reputational risk and , 231, 232 RadioShack, 83 short-term decision making for , 15, Rana Plaza building collapse (2013), 298, 299 Bangladesh , 34, 176–177 social risks and , 228 Rand Corporation , 129 trade partnerships and political risk reconstruction programs , 64, 107, 180, and, 131 187, 196 project fi nance refugee crisis , 65, 66, 75–76, 187, 309, CSR and , 237–238, 242 314, 320, 334 Index 407 regulation organizational structure and , 73, 81, banking risk taking and , 34 103, 112, 115, 215, 220, 301 complexity of , 21, 28, 38, 215–217 risk management and , 18, 294–295, emission standards and , 29, 54, 180, 330 187–189, 330, 333 three-dimensional risk management insurance industry and , 30 and, 114 risk in banking industry and , 21 resolution plans (living wills), of start-ups and small businesses systemically important fi nancial and , 38 institutions (SIFIs) , 60, 96, 318 Reko Diq mine, Pakistan , 157–160 responsibility, and CSR , 223 Repsol , 145, 148, 151, 152 retirement, longevity risk and , 6, 61 resource nationalism , 171 return on investment extractive industries and , 158–159 entrepreneurship and , 39 FDI and , 147 Export Import Bank programs and , global approach to threats from , 325 311 international business and , 172 Revlon , 227–228 Pakistan and , 157–158 Rhodesia , 168 Papua New Guinea and , 152–157 Rio Declaration on Environment and rise of , 172 Development , 225 reputation Rio Tinto , 111, 153, 154, 239, 242 building trust and , 339 risk CSR and , 228, 231–232, 234 asset-less economy and , 27–30 impact of loss of , 296, 299, 302, continuum in , 41–66 304, 330, 331, 339 evolving perceptions of , 7–10 reputation risk , 29, 329, 330 global map of , 9 boards and , 297 global shock preparation and, crisis management and , 302, 303 10–12 cyber risk and , 199, 204 interconnected global aspects of, data availability on , 333 8–9 global brands and , 34, 177, 232, interrelated economic, political 250, 299 and technological factors in, global investment problems and , 25–26 249, 250 investment decisions and perception price of , 54–55 of , 18–19 profi tability and , 111 learned behaviors in response Volkswagen example of , 54–57 to , 81 resilience long-range implications of , 41 agility with , 197 moral hazard as source of , 71–72 catastrophe bonds and , 63 need for broader view of , 12–14 climate change and , 115, 178, 181, probability distribution of, 188–189, 192 26–27, 42 entrepreneurs and , 86 speed of transactions amplifying , insurance and , 191 21–22 408 Index

risk agility risk management , 17–39 Apple and Pain Quotidien’s supply assessment of critical systems for , 11 chain responses as examples of , auditing function and , 22, 270, 297 36–37 best practices for , 13 broader view of risk and , 14 boards and , 13, 95, 98, 264, 268, conscience in , 15 274–275, 288, 297 defi nition of , 14 broad defi nitions of , 21 deftness of movement in , 15 broader view of risk in , 12–13 employee memories of events and , business prevention diff erentiated 113 from , 15, 23, 25, 95, 102, 337 global risk and , 10 business processes needed in , 25–26 new emerging risk landscape and , ‘check-the-box’ approach to , 17, 21, 14–15 22, 113 organizational challenges to , classical frameworks for , 22–24 112–113 complex systems and , 30–31 perceptions in , 120 confl ation of CEO–chairman roles simplicity and , 331, 333 and failures in , 15–16, 338 skin in the game approach and , 113 current frameworks for , 20–22 values and , 77 deterrents creating new risks in , 19 risk audits , 22, 270, 297 dynamism and change as part of , 18 risk aversion environmental issues and , 7 business climate and , 254 evolution over time of , 26–27 decision making and , 37 global investment climate and , 147 funding for entrepreneurs and , 86 of global shocks , 10–11 international business transactions global world and , 3–16 and, 9, 248 inertia risk in , 24 monkey studies of , 81 information shortages and , 11 natural orientation toward , 332 long-range scenario planning in , 114 risk culture diff erentiated from , 103 ‘near-miss’ management approach risk culture , 103–105 in , 30 agility in , 36, 103, 113 one-dimensional approach to , assessment of , 104–105, 272 97–99, 101 defi nition of , 103 perceived risk and , 18–19 entrepreneurship and , 87 placebo eff ect in , ix, 17, 19, 24, failure and, 104 97–98, 330 global organizations and , 11 as process and not event , 17–20 leadership and , 103 qualitative approaches to , 12, 15, risk aversion diff erentiated from, 97, 101, 268 103 quantitative approaches to tools , 12, zero failure in , 103, 104 15, 23, 101, 258, 264, 269, 270, risk governance , 22–23, 271, 272, 276, 287 307–328 regulators and , 96 risk insurance , 62–63, 237, 335 resilience and , 18, 294–295, 330 Index 409

risk prevention and , 13, 21, 23 Romney, Mitt , 37 short-term versus longer-term Rousseff , Dilma , 75 approaches in, 293, 327 Royal Society of Edinburgh , 321 signal-to-noise ratio in , 11–12 Rumsfeld, Donald , 27 stochastic thinking in , 41–42 Russia , 76 system-wide risk and , 19–20 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine three-dimensional approach to , by , 65, 166–168, 175–176 101–102 arms control and , 171 zero-loss approach to , 93–94 bombing of Metrojet fl ight of, over risk managers Sinai (2015) , 140 broader view of risk and , 13–14 bribery in , 77 confi rmation bias of , 97 sanctions against , 166–168 decision making and , 16, 24, 68 Western nations and , 79, 168–171, in fi nancial fi rms , 24 334 global risk agility and , 15–16 Yukos appropriated by , 151 governance and , 23–24 isolation of, in global organizations , 24 S in non-fi nancial fi rms , 24 Sagan, Carl , 82 preparing for global shocks by , Sakhalin Island , 169 10–11 Salesforce , 78 on systemically important fi nancial San Bernadino, California, attack institutions (SIFIs) , 33 (2015) , 140 risk modeling sanctions , 166–168 banks and , 23 challenges to eff ectiveness of , 168, catastrophe bonds and , 193, 194 170 global shock assessment and , 10 global businesses and , 249 hurricanes and natural disasters and , mixed record of success using , 42, 44, 193 166–167 risk governance and , 320, 327 against Russia , 166–167, 169, 170 risk management using , 98, 101 unintended consequences of , V-Lab’s systemic risk rankings using , 167–171 61 SARS , 186 risk oversight committees , 13, 72 Saudi Arabia, Kingdom of (KSA) , risk prevention , 13, 21, 23 49–50, 138, 139, 252 risk tolerance Schultz, Howard , 78 color-coding system for , 283 Sears , 83 framing guidelines for , 90–91 Securities and Exchange Commission in organizations , 11, 90–91, 113 (SEC), 230, 299 RJ Reynolds , 232 Sendai (Tohoku), Japan, earthquake Roberts, Chris , 20, 210 and tsunami (2011), 108, 192, Rohingya minority, Myanmar , 163 195, 196 Robust Domain, in risk distribution , 27 Senkaku Islands , 164, 166 410 Index

separation of powers, in governance , software company, in South Korea , 292 72, 338 Somalia , 177 severe acute respiratory syndrome Sony Entertainment , 24–25, 27, 54, (SARS), 186 80, 202–208 shale gas production , 44–45, 48, 170 South Africa , 78, 166, 191, 262, 283 shareholder value South America, investment disputes in , corporate activism and , 78, 341 151 CSR and , 223, 229–231 South Korea , 52, 161, 169 government bank bailouts and , 318 economic development of , 290, 292 Shea Yaleen , 88 software development in , 292 Shwe Gas Pipeline , 161, 162 sovereign risk , 57, 319 Siemens , 311 country risk and , 246, 247 simplicity defi nition of , 247 complexity reduction and , 32, fi nancial risk linked to , 348 89–94, 102 Puerto Rican debt crisis example of , risk agility and , 331, 333 58–59 Sinai Peninsula, bombing of Metrojet transactions and risks related to , fl ight over (2015) , 140 247–248, 269 six sigma , 93, 100, 103 Spain , 5, 299 Skilling, Jeff rey , 312–313 Al Qaeda and , 129 Skunk Works concept , 15, 336 Argentina and , 152 SkyMall , 25, 114 Basque confl ict in , 135 slowly developing risks (SDRs) , 328 FDI in , 135 Smith, Adam , 193, 318 fi nancial risk in , 57, 65 Smith, Ian , 168 terrorist attacks in , 127, 130, 134, smog problems, and climate change , 183 135 Snowden, Edward , 68, 200–202 youth unemployment in , 259 snow storms , 183–184 special purpose vehicles (SPVs) , 192, social media , 51 194, 298 consumer reviews on , 340 Spratly Islands , 164–165 global use of , 4, 348 Standard Oil of New Jersey , 148 IS use of , 141–143 Starbucks , 78–79, 227, 236, 341 personal privacy on , 202 start-ups , 38, 242 political forecasting and information state legislatures, speed and agility in , 37 available in , 262 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) , 46, 59, popular movements’ use of , 214 75, 110, 111, 149 social risk stochastic thinking , 41–42 CSR and , 226–228 storms . See also cyclones; hurricanes impact of , 228 electrical , 214 risk management and , 229, 297 frequency of , 10 Société Générale , 71 geomagnetic , 322 Society for Worldwide Interbank increasing severity of , 175 Financial Telecommunication insurance and , 179 (SWIFT) , 168 perception of risk from , 8 Index 411

predicting and preventing , 180 risk management and , 20 reconstruction costs following , 180 system-wide exposure to , 20 in winter , 183–184 technology Stuxnet (cyber weapon) , 208–210 aircraft manufacturing changes in , Sub-Saharan Africa , 85, 87, 108, 115 300 Supreme Court , 77 complexity of, and global risk , 213 Sustainable Development Goals fracking natural gas and , 234 (SDGs) , 225 global economy and country Sweden , 69, 75, 259 strengths in, 257 Swiss Re cat bond index , 193 global enterprises and development Syria , 124, 139, 171 of , 332, 347, 350 military confl ict in , 5, 52, 76, 79, medical, standards governing , 215 124, 140, 252, 253, 257, 320, new risk management paradigm 334 and , 3 refugees from , 76, 320, 334 regulatory emissions standards , 188 systemically important fi nancial security , 204 institutions (SIFIs) , 33, 59–60, terrorists’ use of , 216 96, 104, 211, 316–318 trading company problems and , 212 systemic failure, risk from , 9, 20 transfer , 245 systemic risk technology companies complexity and , 68 economic nationalism and , 146 global changes and , 7 global supply chain and , 177 Great Recession and , 5 risk and , 35, 212 ossifi cation of large organizations temperature changes, and climate and, 68 change , 174, 183–185, 328 risk distribution and , 27 Tepco , 304 SIFI designation and , 60 terrorism , 119–144 V-Lab’s rankings of , 61, 62 businesses and , 126, 129, 143–144 countermeasures against , 143–144 deterrents creating new risks in , 19 T economic costs of , 128–129 Taiwan , 152, 290 FDI and , 131–138 Takata Corporation , 101 globalization backlash and , 119–122 Taleb, Nassim , 26, 27 home-grown , 8, 142 Taliban , 106, 124 national economies and long-term TalkTalk , 207–208 costs of , 136–137 Tanzania , 130 terrorism insurance, in Pakistan , Target (company) , 205 135–136 technological risk , 20, 25, 326 Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) , cyber-attacks and , 27 62–64, 205, 207 interconnected global aspects of, terrorist attacks 8–9 background of terrorists in , 126 perception of , 8 cost of reducing vulnerability to , 129 personal use of technology and , 212 deaths from , 124–125 412 Index terrorist attacks (cont.) Tornado Alley , 178–180 economic globalization and , total quality management , 100, 101 133–134 Total S.A. , 148 form of government and , 134 Toyoda, Akio , 100 security measures against , 131, 144 Toyota , 35, 55, 100, 339 U.S.A. and , 125–126 trade Western nations and , 74, 120, climate change and , 176 122–123, 125, 126, 140, 143, country risk and , 255–256 248 terrorism risk’s impact on, 134 terrorist groups trade credit insurance , 335 cost-eff ective spending by , 129–130 trading problems “soft” target preferences of , 130–131 Barings Bank collapse and , 300 terrorism risk JP Morgan’s London Whale losses business processes for identifying , 13 and, 71, 97, 99, 337, 338 FDI and , 127, 128, 131–138 Knight Capital’s algorithmic trading investors’ perception of , 127–128, and, 22, 100, 212 132, 136 rogue activity and , 300 perceptions of , 8 speed of transactions amplifying , 22 proposed national CRO for , 63–64 transactional risk management (TRM) , Tesla electric vehicles , 188 267–288 Texas City Refi nery explosion (2005) , best board practices for , 273–275 296 common impediments to , 281–282 Th ailand , 341 common platform for country climate change and rice production ranking and classifi cation in, in , 187 282–287 coups and tourism in , 343–344 critical tasks in , 281 doing business ranking of , 278–279 domestic operations and , 277–278 economic performance of , 344 elements of , 270–273 fl ooding (2011) in, and global organizations and , 276–277 semiconductor supply chain guidelines for , 269–270 interruptions , 114, 190 necessary business transformations Myanmar electricity generation and , for , 279–281 162 political stability assessment in , 276 terrorism in , 134 proper planning and due diligence three-dimensional risk management in , 276 benefi ts of , 114 risk analyses in , 275 description of , 101–102 risk manager’s approach in , 287–288 organization obstacles to , 112 types of transactions and risks risk-ready fi rms using , 332 covered in , 247–248, 269 Tohoku (Sendai), Japan, earthquake World Bank’s “Doing Business” and tsunami (2011), 108, 192, report on , 278–279 195, 196 Transatlantic Trade and Investment too-big-to-fail fi nancial institutions , 58, Partnership (TTIP) , 308 60, 96, 99, 316–318 Trans-Pacifi c Partnership (TPP) , 308 Index 413 transparency organizational culture and , 72 agile decision making and , 339 risk culture and , 104 avoidance of potential public relations short-term profi t versus , 299 crises using, 35, 36, 339 trust equity , 340 board membership and , 273 Trust Barometer , 69 competitive advantage and , 177 tsunami, after Tohoku (Sendai), Japan complex systems and , 68 (2011) earthquake, 108, 192, country risk decisions and , 272 195, 196 CSR and , 223, 226, 229, 233 Tunis, terrorist attack (2015) on , 130, cyber breaches and , 80, 204–205, 143 218 Tunisia, Arab Spring in , 187, 252, 253, environmental regulations and , 162, 309 163 Turn Down the Heat reports (World ethical hackers and promotion of , 201 Bank) , 185 good governance with , 309 Twitter , 262 of information , 4, 13, 33 Twitter Revolution , 214 market and consumer expectations for , 206, 233 multilateral development banks U (MDBs) and, 240 UBA , 85 organizational accountability and , Uber , 27–30, 85, 176 113 UberPop , 29 project implementation and , 238 Ukraine, Russia’s actions in , 65, social media report cards on , 340 166–168, 175–176 VW regulatory problems and lack underdeveloped countries, climate of , 330–331 change in , 196 Transparency International , 155 underemployment , 8, 38 Transportation Security Administration unemployment (TSA) , viii, ix in Europe , 258, 259 Tripartite Declaration (ILO) , 224 global rates of , 8, 37, 65, 312 Triple Bottom Line Approach , 221 Great Recession and , 8 trust perception of risk from , 8 agile decision makers and , 339, 340 in Saudi Arabia , 50 in banking industry , 73 Union Bank of Switzerland , 233 building in a digital world , 339–341 United Arab Emirates (UAE) , 69 of business , 38, 68, 69, 72, 340–341 United Kingdom (UK) , 5, 61, 76, 87, communication of bad news and , 36 134, 190, 282, 299, 321 CSR and , 231 United Nations (UN) , 6, 76, 91–92, cyber attacks and , 205, 207 225, 307, 308 foreign investors and , 154 United Nations Climate Change governance and , 309 Conference , 308 of government , 69, 72 United Nations Conference on Trade of information sources , 269 and Development (UNCTAD) , of international aid eff orts , 182 131, 132 414 Index

UN Convention Against Corruption , organizational culture and , 73–75 225 results of failure to adhere to , 73 United Nations Convention on the risk agility and , 77 Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) , tempering risk-taking levels with , 165–166 81–82 UN Global Compact , 225, 229, 241 Venezuela , 45, 81, 146, 149, 151, 283 UN Norms on the Responsibilities of Virgin , 91 Transnational Corporations and Vitality wellness program , 191 other Business Enterprises with Volatility Lab (V-Lab) systemic risk regard to Human Rights , 225 ratings, 60, 61 UN Security Council (UNSC) , 79, Volcker Rule , 32, 102 165, 309 Volkswagen (VW) , 54–57, 73, 188, U.S. Agency for International 189, 330–333, 338 Development , 315 Volvo , 56, 69 U.S. Clean Air Act , 55 vulnerability U.S. Department of Homeland of airline industry , viii, 19–20 Security (DHS) , 43, 63 business continuity management U.S. Federal Emergency Management (BCM) and, 301 Agency (FEMA), 63, 181 business processes for identifying , 13 U.S. National Oceanic and climate change and , 179 Atmospheric Administration of computer systems , 199, 201, 213 (NOAA), 184–185 databases for identifying , 10 U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) , developed countries’ spending to 200 reduce , 129 U.S. Securities and Exchange of extractive industries , 158–159 Commission (SEC), 230, 297 of global enterprises , 219 U.S. Transportation Security global shock risk assessment for , 11, Administration (TSA) , viii, ix 13 Universal Declaration on Human of national infrastructure to cyber Rights, 225 risk, 208, 210 Uruguay , 149 Ushahidi , 87 W Walmart , 232, 236 V Walsh, Willie , 92 value at risk (VaR) metrics, 23, 95, Wanabo Mining , 162 337 War on Terror , viii, 3, 74, 122 values Washington, D.C., earthquake (2011) , complexity reduction and , 77–80 31 decision making based in , 78–79 water control systems, and cyber risk , erosion of , 74 208 examples of power of , 77–80 water supply national, and federal government , climate change and , 175–176, 185 74–75 fracking and dangers to , 234 Index 415

perception of risk to , 8 World Bank , 76, 185, 238, 255, 308, rationing of , 175 325 scarcity as global risk , 6, 7, 185, 349 “Doing Business” report of , weather events . See also hurricanes; 278–279, 342 storms; and specifi c events World Bank Group , 239, 241 climate change and , 42 World Economic Forum (WEF) , 7–9 creative-destructive cycle in , World Health Organization (WHO) , 179–180 109, 236, 322–324 crop failures and , 190 World Trade Organization (WTO) , dynamism and change in , 18 255 electricity generation capacity World War II aff ected by , 44 fi nancial recovery after , 133 El Niño and , 42, 44, 46, 173, 182 internment of Japanese-Americans perception of risk from , 8 during, 74–75 West Africa UN structure as relic of , 76, 309 cocoa production in , 88 World Wildlife Fund , 154 Ebola in , 4–5, 182, 278, 324 Wright, Rahama , 88 Western businesses, in China , 349–350 Western nationals, as terrorism targets , 110 X Western nations Xhibit Corporation , 25 Chinese FDI and , 163–164 global infl uence of , 257, 347 growth of Islam and rejection of , Y 119–120 Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales (YPF) , IS funding and , 139–140 145, 150–152 IS recruiting using social media in , Yanomami tribe , 81 141–142 Yemen , 49, 130, 252, 253 Muslim perceptions of , 122–124 Yousafzai, Malala , 106–107 Russia’s relations with , 79, 168–171, youth unemployment 334 in Europe , 259 social media use against IS in , IS recruiting and , 38 142–143 in Saudi Arabia , 50 terrorist attacks against , 74, 120, Yukos , 151 122–123, 125, 126, 140, 143, 248 views of Muslims held in , 123, 124 Z West Nile Virus , 185–186 zero-failure approach Wikileaks , 201 in airlines , 93 wildfi res , 90–91, 175, 187 to risk culture , 103, 104 Wilmar , 228 to cyber risk , 211, 218–219 wind storm insurance coverage , 179 zero-loss approach to risk management , Winterkorn, Martin , 73, 338 93–94 winter storms , 183–184 Zipcar , 176