The Geography of Crime and Crime Control

Applied Geography 86 (2017) 220e225

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Applied Geography

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog

The geography of crime and crime control

1. Geography of crime crime by illustrating the role of the social and physical environment in the commission of crime and the selection of crime targets. In Scientific interest in the geography of crime is not new. The large doing so, these theories provide a rationale for the importance of variation in crime across space and time is one of the oldest puzzles place in our understanding of crime and offer opportunities for in the social sciences (Glaeser, Sacerdote, & Scheinkman, 1996). In the development of place-based crime prevention policies (Eck & fact, the study of crime started with questions about its geography. Weisburd, 1995). The opportunity theories of crime include the Already in the 19th century, Guerry (1833) and Quetelet (1842) rational choice perspective, the routine activities theory and crime published maps of personal and property crime in France, while pattern theory. Because elements of each of these theories are pre- Mayhew (1862) mapped London's rookeries, a colloquial term sent in nearly all research on the geography of crime and crime con- used for slum areas. During the first decades of the 20th century, trol, we briefly summarize these theories here. scholars of the Chicago School of Sociology developed an ecological The rational choice perspective on crime and crime control model of urban geography, including the concentric zone model (Cornish & Clarke, 2008, 1986) focuses on offender decision- (Park, Burgess, McKenzie, & Wirth, 1925) and an application to ju- making. It argues that offending is purposive behavior through venile delinquency (Shaw & McKay, 1942), that remained a theoret- which offenders seek to benefit themselves. In their decision to ical and empirical blueprint for many decades. During the 1980s, offend as well as their selection of a crime site, offenders balance after a long period of relatively modest progress, the advent of the costs and benefits of their choices and select that option opportunity-based crime theories, the digitalization of law enforce- through which they expect to achieve the greatest benefit for them- ment data and crime records, and the availability of computerized selves. As such, this perspective highlights that crime does not geographic information systems (Chainey & Ratcliffe, 2005; occur at indiscriminate locations but that crime site selection is Weisburd & McEwen, 1998) gave a new impetus to the geography the result of a (semi-)conscious decision-making process. This of crime. Today, crime is regularly and increasingly covered in perspective emphasizes that offenders’ spatial decision-making research articles appearing in Applied Geography (e.g., Barnum, process is informed by a range of attributes of the physical and so- Caplan, Kennedy, & Piza, 2017; Sadler, Pizarro, Turchan, Gasteyer, cial environment. & McGarrell, 2017; Summers & Caballero, 2017) and in other geog- The routine activities theory (Cohen & Felson, 1979) stresses raphy journals as well. While the possibilities and versatility of geo- that for a crime to occur a motivated offender and suitable target spatial analyses of crime have convincingly been demonstrated to must converge in space and time in the absence of capable guard- criminologists and geographers alike, recent technological ad- ians. Targets can be persons or objects. The amount of crime at spe- vancements call for a reappraisal of established insights in the cific places can fluctuate due to changes in the number of motivated role of place in crime. Consider, for example, the prospects offered offenders, available targets or capable guardians. Through changes by the availability of online mapping and navigation applications in their spatial behavior, offenders may seek to create suitable op- for the study of crime and place (Vandeviver, 2014). Similarly, the portunities for crime. Routine activities theory thus emphasizes the proliferation of smartphones (Hoeben, Bernasco, Weerman, importance of situational characteristics of places in the commis- Pauwels, & van Halem, 2014) and the adoption of location- sion of crime. tracking technologies (Versichele, Neutens, Delafontaine, & Van Crime pattern theory (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1984, 2008) de Weghe, 2012) offer new possibilities to study offenders' and vic- combines elements from the rational choice perspective, routine tims' spatial behavior. Many of these developments are addressed activities theory and environmental psychology, to explain varia- in the contributions to this special issue of Applied Geography. tion in the spatiotemporal distribution of crime. Crime pattern theory states that rational offenders become aware of suitable targets in the absence of capable guardians while performing their daily 2. Theoretical frameworks activities and routines. Offenders may exploit these opportunities immediately or return to exploit them later. Crime, then, is the While crime maps are the most visible aspects of the geography result of the interactions between motivated offenders and their of crime, the explanation of spatial patterns and its application in physical and social environment. addressing crime problems, require a theoretical framework. Grounded in the ecological approach of the Chicago School, the geography of crime has long been based on social disorganization the- 3. Two stylized facts ory, which links the occurrence of crime to characteristics of residential communities and their residents. Contemporary studies Parallel with the development of the opportunity theories of are increasingly based on opportunity-based theories. These the- crime, police recorded crime data were increasingly digitalized ories highlight the spatial dimension of crime and reactions to and academics harnessed the growing power and versatility of http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.08.012 0143-6228/© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. C. Vandeviver, W. Bernasco / Applied Geography 86 (2017) 220e225 221 computerized geographic information systems to increase their un- and what target characteristics influence offenders' spatial deci- derstanding of the spatial distribution of crime and offenders’ sions (e.g., Baudains, Braithwaite, & Johnson, 2013; Bernasco & spatial behavior (Weisburd, 2004). These developments have facil- Nieuwbeerta, 2005; Johnson & Summers, 2015; Townsley et al., itated empirical research about a wide variety of topics on the ge- 2015; Vandeviver, Neutens, Van Daele, Geurts, & Vander Beken, ography of crime. Here, we want to put the spotlight on two 2015). The presence of distance decay in offenders' spatial interac- major stylized facts that have been corroborated over and again: tions has frequently been interpreted as evidence of offender stra- (1) the strong concentration of crime at micro-places, and (2) dis- tegies to minimize the costs associated with overcoming distance tance decay in the journey to crime. (Bernasco, 2014; Vandeviver, Van Daele, et al., 2015).

3.1. Crime concentration at micro-places 4. Applications to policing

First, crime is not equally nor randomly distributed in space. In Law enforcement agencies noticed the importance of the spatial fact, crime is strongly concentrated in just a few places of high- dimension of crime as well. In searching for efficient and cost- crime intensity. In analogy to geology, these high-crime intensity effective crime control strategies, since the 1980s police forces places are called hotspots of crime. For example, in their seminal have embraced the renewed interest in the spatial dimension of work Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger (1989) established that just crime, and have successfully implemented a series of place-based 3.5% of all Minneapolis’ addresses produced 50% of all calls for ser- crime prevention and control initiatives (Weisburd, 2004). This vice to the police. Similar results were observed in a variety of cities should not come as a surprise. Police and crime prevention re- worldwide (e.g., Andresen & Malleson, 2011; Steenbeek & sources are scarce and should be used as cost-effectively as Weisburd, 2015; Weisburd, Maher, & Sherman, 1992), prompting possible. Given that the bulk of crime is generated at a handful of Weisburd (2015) to formulate a law of crime concentration at pla- small high-crime intensity places, and that place has a higher pre- ces. This law states that “for a defined measure of crime at a specific dictive value for future crime than offender identity (Sherman, microgeographic unit, the concentration of crime will fall within a nar- 1995, pp. 36e37), it makes sense to prioritize law enforcement row bandwidth of percentages for a defined cumulative percentage of deployment to those places that need it the most and where the crime” (Weisburd, 2015, p. 133). Scholars also determined that the chances of reducing crime and improving citizens' quality of life degree of crime concentration at places is stable over time. Over are the highest (Braga, Papachristos, & Hureau, 2014). Similarly, po- a 14-year period, Weisburd, Bushway, Lum, and Yang (2004) lice investigations could be more cost-effective and possibly more concluded that half of all crime is concentrated in 4.5% of Seattle successful in identifying offenders by adjusting and prioritizing street segments. Furthermore, Weisburd et al. (2004) identified a investigative efforts based on offenders’ spatial behavior (Rossmo, small group of consistently high-crime street segments (see also 2000). Andresen, Linning, & Malleson, 2016; Curman, Andresen, & Brantingham, 2015; Wheeler, Worden, & McLean, 2016). The loca- 4.1. Hotspots policing tion of crime hotspots, however, may change and existing high- crime intensity places may become cold one year while new places Hotspots policing proved to be one particularly successful and emerge as hot another year (Hodgkinson, Andresen, & Farrell, effective place-based crime control strategy (Braga et al., 2014). 2016). Hotspots policing is informed by opportunity-based crime theories and based on the observation that crime is highly concentrated in a 3.2. Distance decay small number of places. While onsite police tactics may differ, the essence of hotspots policing entails directing patrols to a small Second, when tracking offenders' spatial behavior associated number of predefined high-crime areas (Braga et al., 1999; with their offending and crime site selection scholars found that of- Sherman & Weisburd, 1995). Crime hotspots are identified through fenders typically travel only short distances to offend (Bernasco, mapping crime and analyzing the spatial distribution of offences. 2014; Birks, Townsley, & Stewart, 2012; Rengert, 2004). For The rationale underlying this policing strategy is that by dramati- example, Wiles and Costello (2000) established that the average cally increasing visible police presence at high-crime locations, of- travelled distance to a crime site across all crime types for Sheffield fenders will be deterred from committing offences at these offenders was just over 3 km. While some offenders are prepared to locations and the local crime and disorder level will drop. The effec- travel longer distances to offend (Polisenska, 2008; Van Daele, tiveness of hotspots policing for reducing crime at such locations Vander Beken, & Bruinsma, 2012; Vandeviver, Van Daele, & has garnered strong empirical support (Braga et al., 2014; Bureau Vander Beken, 2015), short crime trip distances have repeatedly of Justice Assistance, 2013). Hotspots policing has been found to been observed in a large number of studies for a variety of crimes substantially reduce crime at high-crime locations and locations and have come to be accepted as typical offending behavior (e.g., immediately around crime hotspots (Braga et al., 1999; Sherman Barker, 2000; Beauregard, Proulx, & Rossmo, 2005; Capone & & Weisburd, 1995) and may also have a benign spillover effect by Nichols, 1975; Lundrigan & Czarnomski, 2006; Rattner & Portnov, reducing crime in the larger environment in which such policing 2007; Smith, Bond, & Townsley, 2009). A closely related observa- strategies are implemented (see Weisburd, Braga, Groff, & tion is that the likelihood of a particular location being selected de- Wooditch, 2017), a phenomenon labeled ‘diffusion of benefits’. creases dramatically as the distance from the offender's home increases (Rengert, Piquero, & Jones, 1999). This is known as the 4.2. Predictive policing distance-decay effect. It is not unique to offending behavior but governs most human spatial interactions (Taylor, 1983). Distance Given the success of hotspots policing, researchers have decay in offenders' spatial behavior has repeatedly been observed explored the possibility to predict where and when future high- in studies focusing on the distance that offenders travel prior to crime locations are likely to develop and intervene at those loca- committing their offences, so-called distance-to-crime studies tions before they have become proper crime hotspots. This resulted (e.g., Block & Bernasco, 2009; Rengert et al., 1999; Van Koppen & in prospective hotspots policing (Bowers, Johnson, & Pease, 2004) Jansen, 1998; Vandeviver, Van Daele, et al., 2015), as well as crime and the development of spatiotemporal crime forecasting models location choice studies, which explore how offenders select a target (Johnson, Bowers, Birks, & Pease, 2009; Mohler, Short, 222 C. Vandeviver, W. Bernasco / Applied Geography 86 (2017) 220e225

Brantingham, Schoenberg, & Tita, 2011). Both approaches are firmly proximity, and for crimes to be committed offenders do not even rooted in the geospatial analysis of crime and draw on principles need to know where their victims or co-offenders are located. and techniques from spatial epidemiology and earthquake after- There is some evidence, however, that correlates of geographic shock models from seismology. They take advantage of the spatio- proximity, including social networks, language and other cultural temporal clustering of crime and the predictive power of prior similarities, continue to play an important role in the commission victimization for future victimization (Johnson & Bowers, 2004). of cybercrime and online crime. As a result, geographic proximity Underpinning both approaches is the observation that an offence also shapes the relations and interactions between cybercriminals, occurring at a particular location flags an increased likelihood of their victims and their co-offenders (Leukfeldt, Kleemans, & Stol, repeat victimization of that location in the near future (repeat 2017). For a general and comprehensive discussion about the rela- victimization) and of locations in close proximity to it (near repeat tions between space, place and information technology, see victimization) (Townsley, Homel, & Chaseling, 2000, 2003). Instead Graham (1998). of targeting existing crime hotspots, prospective hotspots policing The development of mobile information and communication approaches seek to identify where future hotspots are likely to technologies will transform the geography of crime for three emerge based on recent spatial offending patterns. To be imple- different reasons: (1) offenders use new technologies when mented effectively, they require geospatial analysis of recorded committing crime, (2) law enforcement rely on new technologies crime data to be conducted on very short notice, preferably in to prevent and investigate crime, and (3) researchers use new tech- real time. Once identified, police presence at those locations can nologies to study crime. proactively be increased to reduce or even completely eliminate Like all technology, information and communication technology the risk of those locations developing into high-crime clusters. can be used for illegitimate purposes. As an obvious example, think Similarly, crime forecasting models seek to predict where and of how mobile phones could assist a group of juveniles in commu- when individual crimes are likely to occur. By pinpointing in near nicating about their committing a burglary or stealing an item from real time those places where crime is likely to occur, police forces a shop. Also consider the amount of information, including location can deploy their personnel with even greater precision and information, that is available online about businesses and individ- possibly more effect (Mohler et al., 2015). uals in social media, and how it could make those to whom it per- tains vulnerable to criminal victimization. A recent study 4.3. Geographic profiling (Stottelaar, Senden, & Montoya, 2014) demonstrated that runners sharing their routes via online sports tracking networks inadver- Research on the spatial dimension of crime not only informs tently disclose their home address. By sharing their address and crime prevention and crime control strategies, but also informs their running times, they might provide prospective residential criminal investigations. Geographic profiling is an investigative burglars a suitable target and opportunity for crime, although the technique that is based on the analysis of offenders' spatial study did not investigate whether burglars actually search and behavior (Canter, Coffey, Huntley, & Missen, 2000; Rossmo, use such information. In a popular account Goodman (2015) paints 2000). Its goal is to prioritize investigative activities of law enforce- an alarming picture of the potential criminal uses of emergent tech- ment agencies to a geographically limited search area in which a se- nologies. Interestingly, many of the identified dangers are related to rial offender is likely to live, or have a major anchor point (such as location and mobility (e.g., using drones or self-driving cars). In the their workplace or school). To predict the offender's most likely an- arms race between criminals and law enforcement, police and chor point and define a search area, the technique inverts the logic other law enforcement agencies have to keep up with criminals underlying the distance-decay phenomenon in offending behavior. and use many of the same new technologies in the prevention, The observation that offenders commit their offences not far from detection and investigation of crime (Ekblom, 1997, 1999). their home is essential to this approach. The input to geographic Recent technological developments will not only inform crimi- offender profiling is a series of locations of offences committed by nals and law enforcement agencies, but will also allow researchers the same unknown offender, but can be further extended by to refine their understanding of the geography of crime, and to including additional spatial information such as geodemographic study it from new angles and perspectives with even greater detail. data, bar locations, schools and established crime hotspots For example, the availability of online navigation and mapping ap- (Rossmo, Davies, & Patrick, 2004). The approach is now routinely plications may open up new approaches to studying the crime- used by various law enforcement agencies worldwide, in particular place nexus and make detailed micro-level spatial data available in investigations of serial offenders committing serious crimes like for research (Vandeviver, 2014). Smartphones and persistently murder, rape, armed robbery or arson (Rossmo, 2012). collected location data have great potential as new sources for detailed spatiotemporal data on their users' spatial behavior which 5. Future challenges and opportunities can be linked to geographic aspects of victimization and offending (Hoeben et al., 2014). The availability of such data may equally Without any doubt, in the near future the geography of crime create opportunities to study the journey to crime (for an inter- and crime control will be enriched with new research questions esting explorative study that tracked journeys to crime, see and new techniques will become available to answer existing ques- Rossmo, Lu, & Fang, 2012) or even the journey to victimization in tions. With the risk of being proven wrong very soon, we sketch unprecedented spatial and temporal detail (Wiebe et al., 2016). In some likely directions here. We anticipate that change will be the same vein, increasingly implemented technologies such as gun- mostly driven by technological developments. shot detection systems and visitor-flow tracking technology Within less than a decade, the internet and other developments (Versichele et al., 2012) could impact place-based crime control in information and communication technology will have changed strategies. These technologies could allow law enforcement crime and law enforcement considerably, if only because the vol- agencies to detect criminal incidents as they unfold in real time ume of reported online crimes and cybercrimes has skyrocketed in the urban environment and adjust policing strategies on the and because many types of offline crime have become supported fly. However, much less is known about the spatial dimension of re- by online information or tools (Wall, 2007). Online crimes tran- actions to crime and crime's impact on citizens. Spatial analysis scend geographic limitations, because they do not require victims acknowledging that not all crimes have an equally great impact and offenders or offenders and co-offenders to be in close physical on victims and society would be one avenue to explore in the recent C. Vandeviver, W. Bernasco / Applied Geography 86 (2017) 220e225 223 future. Another avenue could be to pursue a better understanding attributes of residential homes and their immediate surroundings of the physical and social environment's impact on fear of crime on residential burglary risk. They find that ease of escape from a and citizens' worry of victimization. Finally, despite a few initial at- property, property accessibility and property surveillability in- tempts to GPS-track ranger patrols in the prevention of wildlife crease burglary risk. Indicators of wealth, however, were not crime (Lemieux et al., 2014; Moreto et al., 2014) and police patrols related to burglary risk. in the prevention of urban crime (Davies & Bowers, 2015), one prac- In the final article, Chataway and colleagues explore the feasi- tically untouched research subject remains the spatial dimension of bility of mobile phone technology and location-triggered ecological crime control as such. Questions surrounding the spatial behavior momentary assessments (EMAs) to collect meaningful context- of law enforcement officers, their spatial decision-making pro- dependent data on fear of crime and risk perception. The data pro- cesses and how attributes of the physical and social environment duced by this approach exhibit high degrees of internal consistency impact the outcome of this process remain mostly unanswered to and reliability and support most hypothesized associations be- date. tween concepts in contemporary fear of crime models. However, the low number of completed and returned EMAs prohibited the 6. Contents of the special issue researchers from conducting place-based analysis. This was com- pounded by the difficulty of grouping participants to identify one In the opening article, Weinborn and colleagues make a case for unique place due to spatial and temporal variability between re- considering the severity of offences when studying the spatial dis- spondents who completed and returned EMAs. Chataway and col- tribution of crime. In a series of spatial analyses, they compare leagues discuss possible strategies to address this limitation in crime concentration and crime harm concentration. Both crime future research. and harm are highly concentrated in a handful of street segments but harm is three times more concentrated in space than crime. Funding Building on the crime harm framework, Curtis-Ham and Walton seek to establish if New Zealand neighborhoods most vulnerable to Christophe Vandeviver's contribution to this study was funded crime are also those suffering most crime harm. They compare New by the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) Postdoctoral Fellow- Zealand Police's current approach of identifying the most socially ship funding scheme and the Research Foundation Flanders disadvantaged and high-crime neighborhoods with a newly devel- (FWO) Long Stay Abroad funding scheme [FWO15/PDO/242 to oped crime harm index. They find that spatial patterns of crime C.V., V4.303.16N to C.V.]. vulnerability and crime harm differ and that neighborhoods most vulnerable to crime are not necessarily those suffering high crime harm levels. References Hardyns, Rummens and Pauwels investigate the potential of Andresen, M. A., Linning, S. J., & Malleson, N. (2016). 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