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Download Report www.odfoundation.eu The Open Dialogue Foundation (ODF) was established in Poland in 2009 on the initiative of Ukrainian student and civic activist Lyudmyla Kozlovska (who currently serves as President of the Foundation). Since its founding, statutory objectives of the Foundation include the protection of human rights, democracy and the rule of law in the post-Soviet area. The Foundation originally focused its attention primarily on Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and – since 2016 – Moldova, but this area of interest was expanded in July 2017 due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Poland and other EU member states affected by illiberal policies implemented by their populist governments. ODF pursues its goals through the organisation of observation missions, monitoring especially individual human rights’ violation cases. It also advocates for international legislation better serving human rights, such as the Magnitsky Act or the adding of conditionality clauses to EU & international financial assistance programmes directed at non-democratic states and hybrid regimes. The Foundation also has extensive experience in the field of protection of the rights of political prisoners and refugees. Based on its work, ODF publishes analytical reports and distributes them among EU institutions, OSCE, Council of Europe, the UN, other human rights organisations, foreign ministries and parliaments, as well as the media. It is actively engaged in cooperation with members of parliaments involved in foreign affairs, human rights and relations with monitored third countries. ODF advocates for the reform of Interpol and - more recently - the Schengen Information System (SIS), preventing their mechanisms from being used by authoritarian and hybrid regimes to persecute their opponents. In 2013/14 the Foundation organised a mission to support Ukrainian civil society in their struggle for European integration during the Revolution of Dignity in Kyiv's Maidan square. Following the Russian aggression in 2014, ODF’s humanitarian aid programme started on Maidan, was expanded to help those affected by the occupation of Crimea and the war in the East of Ukraine. From 2014 to 2016, ODF run a large support centre in Warsaw under the name “Ukrainian World", offering everyday life assistance for migrants and fostering Polish-Ukrainian integration. The Foundation has its permanent representative offices in Warsaw and Brussels. Copyright: Open Dialogue Foundation, June 2019. 00-580 Warsaw, Aleja Szucha 11а, office 21, Tel. +48 22 307 11 22 E-mail: [email protected], web-site: en.odfoundation.eu For more detailed information, please contact us: Project Manager: Lyudmyla Kozlovska [email protected] Authors: Andriy Osavoliyk, Igor Savchenko, Botagoz Jardemalie Title page design: Mykhailo Fedyshak Sources of photos used in the cover design: Petr Trotsenko (RFE/RL), Vladislav Vodnev (Sputnik) Reprinting of the materials in whole or in part is permissible with due reference to the Open Dialogue Foundation as the source 2 www.odfoundation.eu Table of Contents: 1. SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................... 4 2. NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV: GOVERNOR OF KAZAKHSTAN FOR LIFE ..................................................... 5 3. EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ............................................................................................................ 6 Stages of the early presidential elections in 2019 ................................................................................. 6 Strict requirements on candidates as a tool to eliminate those held to be inconvenient ................... 7 Candidates ............................................................................................................................................... 8 Is Amirzhan Kosanov a real opposition candidate? ............................................................................... 9 Financing of the candidates' election campaigns ................................................................................ 11 Campaigning .......................................................................................................................................... 12 Authorities are trying to increase interest in the election ................................................................... 12 The ban on opinion polls ...................................................................................................................... 13 Dependence of election commissions .................................................................................................. 14 Mass media ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Internet blockages ................................................................................................................................ 15 4. MASS PEACEFUL RALLIES WERE HELD IN THE RUN-UP TO THE ELECTIONS, WITH PARTICIPANTS SUBJECTED TO HARSH DETENTION, PRESSURE AND CRIMINAL PROSECUTION ................................. 15 Criminal prosecutions ........................................................................................................................... 17 Activists summoned to military service ............................................................................................... 19 5. CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................ 20 3 www.odfoundation.eu 1. SUMMARY On 19 March 2019, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who served as President for 30 years, resigned. According to the law, his position was taken by the head of the upper house of parliament – the Senate – Kasym- Zhomart Tokayev. On 9 April 2019, it was announced that on 9 June 2019 an extraordinary presidential election will be held in Kazakhstan. The upcoming elections will be the sixth consecutive national elections in Kazakhstan to be held early. Following his resignation from the post of President, Nursultan Nazarbayev has remained a key figure in the power system in Kazakhstan. Assessing the experience of other states in the region, where a change of leader was accompanied by a sharp political crisis and a war between elites, Kazakhstan tried to minimise the risks of the transitional period. Over the past few years, the configuration of power in the state has been changed in such a way that for some time, the new President will be only the second most influential figure in the state. Nursultan Nazarbayev has been ensured a lifelong right to govern the country as Chairman of the Security Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan. At the same time, it is important to the ruling elites that the person elected as President be someone from within the system who will guarantee the preservation of the status quo. The former head of the Senate, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, has become such a person. In his inaugural speech, Tokayev proposed to rename the capital of the state Astana to Nur-Sultan in order to “immortalise” the name of Nursultan Nazarbayev. On the same day, both houses of parliament supported his proposal.1 The very first initiative of the new President demonstrated his loyalty to Nursultan Nazarbayev and his readiness to continue his policy in the domestic and foreign arena. Nursultan Nazarbayev’s daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, became the head of the Senate, thus replacing Tokayev. Her candidacy was unanimously supported by all members of the Senate. Following Nazarbayev’s resignation, mass anti-government rallies attended by several thousand people were held in different cities and towns of Kazakhstan. The protesters criticised the authorities and, in particular, demanded fair elections or called for a boycott of the elections. The police detained several hundred peaceful protesters with the use of excessive force. Even now, the analysis of the pre-election situation in Kazakhstan shows that the upcoming elections will not meet democratic standards: • There is no political pluralism in Kazakhstan: opposition parties and real opposition candidates do not participate in the political process. • Tough electoral legislation rules out the possibility of nominating independent candidates for the presidency. • On the eve of the elections, mass anti-government protests were held in the country; they were dispersed by the authorities. Activists who criticise the authorities on social networks and express their attitude towards the upcoming elections have been subjected to gross arbitrary detentions, arrests, pressure and criminal prosecution. • Almost all independent media outlets are banned, which makes it impossible to distribute alternative information. Government officials, including pro-government candidates, have monopoly access to state-run media. 1 https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/parlament-odobril-pereimenovanie-astanyi-v-nursultan-365502/ 4 www.odfoundation.eu • The authorities have resorted to blocking social networks and communicators in order to prevent the spread of protest sentiments. • The election campaign is regulated by the authorities: candidates can hold public events only with the consent of the authorities. • The actual prohibition of independent sociological research on election issues does not allow the real political ranking of candidates to be investigated, and creates an opportunity for fraud. • The president
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