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EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY January 4, 2018

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EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY January 4, 2018 EQUITY RESEARCH MORNING RESEARCH SUMMARY January 4, 2018 What's Inside Focus Items Rating Change Black Knight Inc. (BKI) Glenn Greene, CFA ­ BKI O Black Knight Inc. Upgrading to Outperform DPZ O ­ Domino's Pizza, Inc. LECO O ­ Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO) Jim Giannakouros, CFA SONC P ¯ Sonic Corp. Riding Momentum; Upgrading to Outperform Estimates & PT Revisions CONSUMER Brian Bittner, CFA Investing Recipe For 2018 BJRI P ­ BJ's Restaurants Inc. CAKE P ­ Cheesecake Factory Inc. Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM) Ittai Kidron CMG P ¯ Chipotle Mexican Grill 2018 Top Pick Series—Atlassian DRI O ­ Darden Restaurants Inc. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Hartaj Singh JACK O ­ Jack in the Box, Inc. TEZ/IVA Survey Validates Development Strategy MCD P ­ McDonald's Corporation QSR O ¯ Restaurant Brands International INDUSTRIAL/CAPITAL GOODS Colin Rusch SBUX O ­ Starbucks Corporation Key Indicators to Watch in 2018 TEAM O ­ Atlassian Corporation Plc TXRH P ­ Texas Roadhouse, Inc. Other Headlines VRTX O ­ Vertex Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis Ari Wald, CFA, CMT YUM O ­ Yum! Brands Inc. Color for Fundamental Focus Calls: VRTX, QSR, WM, TEAM YUMC O ­ YUM China Holdings Inc. Zynerba Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZYNE) Derek Archila Updates In An Unsurprising Move, ZYNE Chooses To Go Rare BWLD NR Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. INTC P Intel Corp. Intel Corp. (INTC) Rick Schafer Intel Call Tackles Security Issue ITRI O Itron, Inc. TSLA P Tesla, Inc. TECHNOLOGY Rick Schafer ZYNE P Zynerba Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Daily Chip Clips Estimates/Ratings/Price Target Updates Itron, Inc. (ITRI) Noah Kaye Annual Estimates ITRI Poised to Complete SSNI Merger; Early Look at FY18 Current FY Next FY Ratings Price Targets Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Colin Rusch Bulls and Bears Both Get What They Want Company Ticker Prev Curr Prev Curr Prev Curr Prev Curr Atlassian TEAM 0.47 0.47 0.61 0.61 O O $50.00 $58.00 Corporation Plc BJ's BJRI 1.37 1.38 1.46 1.82 P P NA NA Restaurants Inc. Black Knight BKI 1.37 1.37 1.57 1.92 P O NA $55.00 Inc. For analyst certification and important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix. Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004 Tel: 212-667-7990 Morning Summary - January 4, 2018 Cheesecake CAKE 2.59 2.59 2.57 2.83 P P NA NA Factory Inc. Chipotle CMG 6.70 6.48 8.97 9.89 P P NA NA Mexican Grill Darden DRI 4.46 4.93 5.00 5.75 O O $100.00 $105.00 Restaurants Inc. Domino's Pizza, DPZ 5.79 5.68 6.95 7.60 P O NA $220.00 Inc. Jack in the Box, JACK 4.46 4.59 -- 5.63 O O $125.00 $125.00 Inc. Lincoln Electric LECO 3.72 3.72 4.25 4.30 P O NA $105.00 Holdings, Inc. McDonald's MCD 6.48 6.50 6.72 7.44 P P NA NA Corporation Restaurant QSR 2.03 2.02 2.80 2.87 O O $75.00 $75.00 Brands International Sonic Corp. SONC 1.32 1.49 1.49 1.68 O P $29.00 NA Starbucks SBUX 2.31 2.44 2.62 2.86 O O $60.00 $62.00 Corporation Texas TXRH 1.95 1.95 2.17 2.47 P P NA NA Roadhouse, Inc. Vertex VRTX 1.79 1.79 2.88 3.53 O O $175.00 $190.00 Pharmaceuticals Yum! Brands YUM 2.79 2.79 3.10 3.32 O O $85.00 $90.00 Inc. YUM China YUMC 1.41 1.41 1.59 1.60 O O $45.00 $45.00 Holdings Inc. 2 Morning Summary -January 4, 2018 Snap Commentaries - Equities Updates Glenn Greene, CFA TECHNOLOGY 312-360-5942 Black Knight Inc. (BKI - $45.85) Financial Technology & IT Services Rating / Prior Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2016A 2017E 2018E / Prior O / P $7,036.8M $55.00 / NA EPS 1.15 1.37 1.92 / 1.57 Upgrading to Outperform Due to implementation delays and refinance origination headwinds, BKI’s growth disappointed during 2017, and shares modestly underperformed the market. That said, shares appear the most compelling in some time, given the combination of significant tax reform accretion (see our 12/21/17 note), a significant signed backlog, and current valuation. We have long been attracted to BKI’s strong market position, and its Mortgage Servicing Platform (MSP) is a unique crown jewel type asset that drives most of the company's value, in our opinion (also helps facilitate up-sell opportunities). Following a number of large and high-profile client wins, BKI maintains a sizable implementation backlog (> $130M), which should provide strong growth visibility over the next few years. We upgrade to Outperform (from Perform) with a $55 price target. Jim Giannakouros, CFA INDUSTRIAL/CAPITAL GOODS 212-667-7785 Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO - $92.39) Industrial Machinery & Flow Control Rating / Prior Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2016A 2017E 2018E / Prior O / P $6,075.2M $105.00 / NA EPS 3.29 3.72 4.30 / 4.25 Riding Momentum; Upgrading to Outperform We have come to better appreciate LECO's potential for sustainable MSD core growth, effective price/cost management, and continued strategic execution in the coming year. We believe L/MSD volume growth (particularly as O&G and heavy fab markets stabilize/ameliorate), improved sentiment on its automation story, and abating price/cost headwinds as price actions take hold all set up LECO to outperform going forward. We view relative underperformance in 2H17 (-1% vs. XLI +11% and S&P +10%), driven by expectation resets in both 2Q and 3Q, as overdone, providing an attractive opportunity into 2018. We raise '18/'19E EPS to $4.30/4.75 (from $4.25/4.65), mostly on higher International profitability (tax reform provides upside), and introduce a DCF-derived $105 PT. Upgrade to Outperform (from Perform). CONSUMER Brian Bittner, CFA 212-667-7127 Investing Recipe For 2018 In our annual outlook edition for 2018 we: 1) detail updated EPS estimates across our coverage for new tax analysis, adjusted operating assumptions and introduction of '19 numbers, 2) upgrade DPZ to Outperform (from Perform) and downgrade SONC to Perform (from Outperform), 3) pound-the-table on JACK & QSR, where updated analysis suggests unduly negative sentiment presents excellent risk/rewards, 4) provide stock-by-stock thoughts across our coverage, and 5) discuss several industry themes and our top-down analysis for '18. Happy New Year all! 3 Morning Summary -January 4, 2018 Ittai Kidron TECHNOLOGY 212-667-6292 Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM - $47.06) Analytics and Infrastructure Rating Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2017A 2018E 2019E O $10,828.7M $58.00 / $50.00 EPS 0.36 0.47 0.61 2018 Top Pick Series—Atlassian We remain positive on Atlassian and view it as one of our top 2018 picks. Our bullish thesis reflects our belief that: (1) its salesforce-light, go-to- market approach remains a competitive advantage applicable to new expansion areas; (2) it has multiple growth drivers including new customer growth, use case/TAM expansion (JIRA Service Desk, JIRA Core, Trello), product advancement (Stride, StatusPage), and price leverage (annual increases); and (3) a predictable and strong financial model that's still in the early innings of customer expansion/penetration. We highlight Atlassian's steady performance (~$4.5M rev./~$0.02 EPS avg. upside over its last four quarters) and believe management's steady execution and the company's differentiated business could drive more upside in CY18 as newer products see adoption. Hartaj Singh HEALTHCARE 212-667-7589 Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX - $152.01) Biotechnology Rating Market Cap Price Target / Prior Earnings Type 2016A 2017E 2018E / Prior O $38,443.8M $190.00 / $175.00 EPS 0.85 1.79 3.53 / 2.88 TEZ/IVA Survey Validates Development Strategy We surveyed 25 high-volume pulmonologists regarding their use of approved doublet Orkambi (lumacaftor/ivacaftor) in the homozygous F508del and heterozygous F508del/residual function cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. We also gauged their satisfaction with the risk/benefit profile of Orkambi and the potential for soon-to-be-approved (PDUFA 2/28) follow-on doublet tezacaftor/ivacaftor (TEZ/IVA). Our survey validates: (1) VRTX's stated strategy to grow the total CF patients currently receiving a corrector/potentiator like Orkambi by adding another doublet, (2) there is a bolus of patients already awaiting TEZ/IVA, and (3) heterozygous F508del/residual function CF patients could be put on TEZ/IVA quickly. We update our 2018E-19E sales/earnings numbers and raise our PT to $190 (from $175) based on heightened certainty of a strong TEZ/IVA launch. We stay bullish. INDUSTRIAL/CAPITAL GOODS Colin Rusch 212-667-7787 Key Indicators to Watch in 2018 Given our coverage exposure to Transportation, Power, Industrials, and Materials, we are seeing both short- and long-term technology trends emerging, interrelated with the ongoing evolution of the regulatory environment. We believe investors are well served to watch key variables in each sector and detail those variables in the note below. We remain bullish on the electrification of Transport, the migration to distributed generation and adoption of storage in the Power sector, the growth of high-margin software revenue for Industrials names, and light-weighting in the Materials sector. On page 2 we publish a summary of key variables in Market Adoption, Technology, and Policy & Enforcement for each segment. Top picks for the year are BWA, WPRT, HASI, SPWR, TRMB, WM, POL, and ALB. 4 Morning Summary -January 4, 2018 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Ari Wald, CFA, CMT 212-667-5279 Color for Fundamental Focus Calls: VRTX, QSR, WM, TEAM Derek Archila HEALTHCARE 617-428-5712 Zynerba Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
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