voices Getting to Grips with the Nuclear Paradox The , a leading CTBT advocate, says now is the time for entry into force.

By Uri Rosenthal, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of the Netherlands

The proliferation of nuclear weapons is one of the major threats to international peace and stability. Although most nations have ratified or acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the ban on nuclear testing is gaining ground, we are facing a threat paradox. As President Obama said, ‘In a strange turn of history, the threat of global nuclear war has gone down, but the risk new steps towards further nuclear arms Treaty’s drafting and adoption, became of a nuclear attack has gone up.’ 1 reductions between the existing nuclear the Special Representative to Promote the weapon States. As NPDI partners, we will Treaty’s Ratification Process. Disarmament and nuclear also intensify our efforts to universalize non-proliferation are therefore the International Atomic Energy Agency’s However, nine remaining Annex 2 cornerstones of Dutch foreign security Additional Protocol, which is vital to States still need to ratify the Treaty policy and we have consistently worked ensure that nuclear activities remain before it can enter into force. The Dutch to strengthen the international system peaceful, and work for the entry into force government will continue its diplomatic of legally binding treaties and law in this of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban efforts to reach that target. Some argue field, with the NPT at its core. Treaty (CTBT). that nuclear tests are still necessary for safety, to verify the reliability of existing Pushing for the CTBT’s The CTBT is an essential part of arsenals. But technological progress has entry into force the non-proliferation and disarmament made nuclear tests redundant. Today’s system. The Netherlands has always been sophisticated, computerized simulations In this context, the recent establishment one of its strongest advocates. It was can effectively guarantee the reliability of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament among the first Annex 2 States2 to sign it of nuclear stockpiles. Initiative (NPDI), of which the and did so on 24 September 1996 – the Netherlands is a founding partner, is very day that the Treaty was opened A ban on nuclear tests is an important development. At our last for signature. Former Ambassador Jaap more necessary than ever ministerial NPDI meeting in Berlin in Ramaker, who had played a key role in the April, we decided to aim for greater ______Why ban nuclear tests then, one could transparency in the way nuclear weapon [1] Barack Obama, Prague, 5 April 2009. argue, when there’s no more need to [2] The Annex 2 States include 44 countries, which States report their disarmament efforts. possessed nuclear power or research reactors in 1996. conduct them anyway? The reason This can also help create the conditions for Thirty-five have already ratified the CTBT. is that by banning the tests, we can

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 17 | September 2011 restrain new countries from developing new nuclear weapons programmes and »Fifteen years after the halt the development of advanced new types of nuclear weapons. Treaty’s adoption by the Such restraint is more necessary today than ever before. The recently UN General Assembly on discovered enrichment facility in North Korea augments our concerns 10 September 1996, we about its nuclear programme. The full extent of the Iranian nuclear should make a strong push programme – especially its possible military dimensions – remains unclear. towards its entry into The international relations expert Parag Khanna noted that ‘States seek nuclear force. Now is the time.« weapons to deter the United States and nearby enemies, to compel neighbours to accept their dominance, and to gain already. Its seismic monitoring network Finally, although the status in the world’s nuclear club.’3 successfully detected both nuclear Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty tests by North Korea in 2006 and 2009. has not yet entered into force, it has In addition to concerns about However, we would have been able to already contributed to the international certain States, we also have to conduct intensive on-site inspections norm against nuclear weapons testing. confront the danger of nuclear arms had the Treaty been in effect. Once the Since the early 1990s, the five NPT falling into the hands of non-State Treaty is in force, the combination of nuclear weapon States have maintained actors like international terrorist the monitoring system’s technologies their moratoria on tests. Pakistan and groups. The political commentator and the possibility of on-site inspections India have maintained their moratoria Moisés Naím pointed to an increase should deter countries considering since 1998. Ratification by remaining in illegal arms smuggling and its links future clandestine tests. Annex 2 countries will further strengthen with international, organized crime3. the norm. The Treaty’s entry into force Unconventional, hybrid threats caused Monitoring data also will bolster the verification system. by a combination of such forces may have civilian uses I therefore welcome Ghana’s recent seem remote, but the danger of nuclear ratification and Indonesia’s efforts to terrorism is real. NATO referred in The monitoring system’s relevance complete its ratification process in the its new Strategic Concept to nuclear to early warning for natural disasters course of this year. I hope that more terrorism as one of the primary has grown as well, for example by announcements will follow at this international threats. contributing seismic and hydroacoustic month’s Article XIV conference in New monitoring data to tsunami warning York. Fifteen years after the Treaty’s A powerful deterrent centres. If it had not been for the adoption by the UN General Assembly to would-be violators Preparatory Commission for the on 10 September 1996, we should make a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban strong push towards its entry into force. This brings me to another issue: the Treaty Organization sharing these Now is the time. CTBT’s verifiability. Some argue that data with the Japanese authorities on despite the Treaty, clandestine tests can 11 March, the number of casualties Biographical note still go unnoticed by the international from the 9.0 magnitude earthquake Uri Rosenthal community. This is not true: the CTBT’s and tsunami that hit Japan would was appointed Minister of Foreign International Monitoring System is up have been even more tragic. From Affairs of the Netherlands in October and running. From its earliest stages, the the very next day, the monitoring 2010. From 1999, he represented the Netherlands has been closely involved system’s radionuclide stations around People’s and by contributing expertise to its further the globe could trace the dispersion Democracy (VVD) in the Dutch , becoming its leader in the development. Moreover, the monitoring of radioactivity from the Fukushima Senate in 2005. Prior to this, he was system has proven its effectiveness nuclear power plant to Russia, the appointed professor of political United States, Europe and eventually science at Erasmus University in ______to the southern hemisphere. In 1980 and professor of government at [3] Parag Khanna, How to Run the World: Charting a this regard, we should explore the in 1987. Besides Course to the Next Renaissance (New York, 2011). his academic career, he was chairman possibilities of expanding the civilian [4] Moises Naim, Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers and of the Institute for Safety, Security Copycats Are Hijacking the Global Economy (New use of the monitoring system in other and Crisis Management. York, 2005). areas of emergency awareness.

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CTBTO SPECTRUM 17 | September 2011