Moonrise in South Korea The firing of James Comey Emmanuel Macron’s mission The market for childbearing MAY 13TH–19TH 2017 What it is, and why it is dangerous Trumponomics Contents The Economist May 13th 2017 3 5 The world this week United States 27 Trump and the FBI Leaders The hand that made him 7 The Trump presidency 28 Special prosecutors Courting trouble Starry night 8 Sacking James Comey 28 Opioids You’re fired! A selective scourge 8 India’s economy 30 Lexington State of disrepair Palace whispers 9 Surrogacy The sacking of James Comey The gift of life The Americas Links between the Trump 10 France’s president 31 Gangs in Mexico campaign and Russia should Macron’s mission Crime’s new geography be investigated by an On the cover 32 Bello independent commission: The impulsiveness and Letters Venezuela is not an island leader, page 8. Donald Trump’s shallowness of America’s move against the FBI director 12 On bonds, birds, sea 33 Cuba president threatens the was either incompetent or levels, central banks, Cash for clunkers economy as well as the rule of malign, page 27. Even quantum computing, 33 Argentina law: leader, page 7. The Republican senators look at Mr split infinitives Judging the dirty war administration’s economic Trump and despair: Lexington, strategy is good in parts, but page 30 unimaginative and Briefing Middle East and Africa incoherent, page 14. Donald 14 Trumponomics 35 Iran Trump promises expensive Home-cooked policies Rouhani under fire tax cuts, an investment 36 Egypt’s economy boom and a smaller trade 16 In his own words Opening for business deficit. He can’t have all What he wants three, page 16. Excerpts from 16 The Trump trilemma 37 Israeli politics our interview, page 16 You can’t always get what The generals make way you want 37 Egypt’s zoos 18 Reassessing global trade No place for animals The Economist online Make his day 38 Namibia and Germany Daily analysis and opinion to Salt in old wounds supplement the print edition, plus Asia Macron’s mission France’s audio and video, and a daily chart 19 South Korean politics Europe Economist.com new president promises From dissident to 39 President Macron reform from the centre. The E-mail: newsletters and president Marchons, marchons! challenge is immense, but he mobile edition 20 The war in Afghanistan deserves to succeed: leader, Economist.com/email 41 Polling errors About-face Undercounting centrists page 10. The improbable, Print edition: available online by inescapable quest to reform 21 Chinese Indonesians 42 Muckraking in Malta 7pm London time each Thursday Sent down France, page 39. Why did polls Economist.com/print Shady island sell Macron short? Page 41. 21 House prices in Australia Audio edition: available online 42 English in the EU Can he revive the Franco- Shuttered dreams to download each Friday Lingua franca German engine? Charlemagne, Economist.com/audioedition 22 Commemorating Shivaji 43 The new Europhiles page 44 The highest praise Who loves EU, baby 24 Banyan 44 Charlemagne Resisting the Philippines’ Germany and Macron-mania war on drugs Volume 423 Number 9040 Britain China 45 Scotland Published since September 1843 25 Health care Uniting the clans to take part in "a severe contest between Wanted: family doctors intelligence, which presses forward, and 46 Welsh politics an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing 26 Migrants’ woes Independents’ day our progress." A literary sensation Editorial offices in London and also: 48 Bagehot Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, Why Marx still matters Lima, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi, New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Why Marx still matters The São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, Labour leadership is right— Washington DC Karl Marx has a lot to teach Britain: Bagehot, page 48 1 Contents continues overleaf 4 Contents The Economist May 13th 2017 International Science and technology 49 Surrogacy 66 Artificial intelligence Help wanted Shall we play a game? 68 New materials Business The lotus position 53 Middle Eastern airlines 68 Violins Missed connection Debranding 54 EB-5 visas Citizen Kushner Books and arts 55 Sinclair Broadcast 69 Fabled places The collapse of retailing The AI and video games Why A signal event The dream beyond the decline of established ways of researchers into artificial desert shopping is a threat to workers 55 Business advice intelligence are so keen on and investors, pages 58-60 A general’s wisdom 70 The maths of life video games, page 66 56 A tale of two tech hubs Mr Big Silicon Valley North 70 Memoirs 57 Schumpeter Neurosurgeon, reveal Subscription service Warding off activists thyself For our full range of subscription offers, including digital only or print and digital 72 Johnson combined visit Hit and misspeak Economist.com/offers Briefing You can subscribe or renew your subscription 73 Britain’s Olympic by mail, telephone or fax at the details below: 58 American retailing athletes Telephone: +65 6534 5166 Sorry, we’re closed Facsimile: +65 6534 5066 What price victory? Web: Economist.com/offers 73 Art and artists in Africa E-mail: [email protected] Finance and economics The next big thing Post: The Economist Subscription Centre, 61 India’s economy Tanjong Pagar Post Office India’s finances Unless it Spendthrift states PO Box 671 76 Economic and financial Singapore 910817 reins in spendthrift states, 62 Buttonwood indicators Subscription for 1 year (51 issues)Print only India will eventually suffer a Fund managers under Statistics on 42 economies, Australia A$465 fiscal crisis: leader, page 8. pressure China CNY 2,300 plus a closer look at Hong Kong & Macau HK$2,300 States are on a borrowing 63 Clearing-houses commodity prices India 10,000 spree of the kind that rarely Japan Yen 44,300 The Brexit effect Korea KRW 375,000 ends well, page 61 Malaysia RM 780 63 Africa’s economy Obituary New Zealand NZ$530 Dispensing with Singapore & Brunei S$425 78 Ueli Steck Taiwan NT$9,000 informalities Highest, fastest Thailand US$300 64 China’s economy Other countries Contact us as above In the name of GDP 64 Crowd-sourcing Principal commercial offices: The wisdom of the herd 25 St James’s Street, London sw1a 1hg 65 Free exchange Tel: +44 20 7830 7000 William Baumol Rue de l’Athénée 32 1206 Geneva, Switzerland Tel: +4122 566 2470 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017 Tel: +1212 5410500 Surrogacy Carrying a child for 1301Cityplaza Four, 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong someone else should be Tel: +852 2585 3888 celebrated—and paid for: leader, page 9. Even as Other commercial offices: Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, demand for surrogacy soars, Paris, San Francisco and Singapore more countries are trying to ban it, page 49 PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests, recycled and controlled sources certified by PEFC PEFC/01-31-162 www.pefc.org © 2017 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Publisher: The Economist. Printed by Times Printers (in Singapore). M.C.I. (P) No.030/09/2016 PPS 677/11/2012(022861) The world this week The Economist May 13th 2017 5 offshoot ofthe Turkish Kurdish invoke the Koran to argue that home at the expense ofthe Politics party, the PKK, which both it Muslims should never vote for opposition Labour Party and and America regard as a terro- a Christian like him. In Aceh, a Liberal Democrats. Now that it rist organisation. semi-autonomous region, a has achieved its aim ofBrexit sharia court sentenced two gay the UK Independence Party A Russian plan for four men to 100 lashes. was almost wiped out, as its “de-escalation zones” in Syria supporters switched to the came into effect. Fighting has A Chinese human-rights Tories. It was a thumping result continued in the areas, but at a lawyer, Xie Yang, pleaded forthe party, but projections lower level. Rebels seeking to guilty to inciting subversion. At based on the results imply that topple the regime ofPresident his trial, he also denied reports the Tories’ current opinion- Bashar al-Assad refused to sign that he had been tortured by poll lead may be overstated the agreement. police. Mr Xie was arrested in when it comes to the general 2015 during a sweeping crack- election on June 8th. Tunisia’s president sent the down on legal activists. army to protect the country’s The youth of today James Comey was sacked as phosphate, gas and oil facilities Socialist realism director ofthe FBI by Donald after protests that threatened Venezuela’s health ministry Trump, taking Washington, to disrupt them broke out in reported that maternal mortal- and Mr Comey, completely by the south ofthe country. ity jumped by 65% in 2016 and surprise. Mr Trump acted on that the number ofinfant the advice ofthe attorney- deaths rose by 30%. It also said general, JeffSessions, who that the number ofcases of decided that Mr Comey had malaria was up by 76%. The botched the FBI’s probe into ministry had not reported Hillary Clinton’s private health data in two years. Vene- e-mails last year. At the time zuela is suffering from short- Mr Trump had praised Mr ages offood and medicines.