Number 154 • March / April 2018

Editor Jacob Heilbrunn

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n Alfred Hitchcock’s 1959 movie searching for the American Establishment in North by Northwest, the protago- the American Scholar. His minute researches nist Roger Thornhill, a genial New about “a more or less closed and self-sustain- York advertising man played by Cary ing institution that holds a preponderance IGrant, is suddenly swept up into clandes- of power in our more or less open society” tine Cold War machinations. Only after he prompted William F. Buckley Jr. to publish encounters an American spymaster named a response in Harper’s. Buckley was having the Professor, who is based on cia director none of Rovere’s levity. “The fact of the Allen Dulles, the brother of John Foster matter,” wrote Buckley, “is that Mr. Rovere’s Dulles and a charter member of the Ameri- disavowals notwithstanding, there is a thing can Establishment, does Thornhill begin which, properly understood, might well be to decipher the turbulent series of events, called an American Establishment; and the including a harrowing encounter with the success of Mr. Rovere’s essay wholly depends anonymous pilot of a crop duster, that have on a sort of nervous apprehension of the put his life in jeopardy. “I don’t like the correctness of the essential insight.” Indeed, games you play,” Thornhill declares. “War two decades later, Leonard Silk and Mark is hell, Mr. Thornhill,” the Professor retorts, Silk went on to offer a highly informative “even when it’s a cold one.” Thornhill is en- conspectus of the institutions of the foreign- raged. “Perhaps you ought to start learning,” policy elite in their 1980 book The American he says, “how to lose a few cold wars.” Establishment. There the matter rested. It’s a telling exchange. Suspicions of an In recent months, however, apprehen- amoral caste of foreign-policy mandarins sions about a deep state, led by intelligence intent on manipulating, or even subverting, officials at the fbi, cia and Justice Depart- American democracy for their own ends are ment, have acquired a fresh prominence. hardly new. Instead, apprehensions about The conservative Christian leader Franklin a have formed a persistent theme Graham is sounding alarms about a “coup of American political debate. Three years d’état” against , and the after the appearance of Hitchcock’s film, president himself is warning on Twitter the journalist Richard Rovere wrote a fa- about the sinister operations of a “Deep mous spoof, complete with footnotes, about State Justice Department.” How much cre- dence should be placed in such assertions? Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of the National Interest. Does a deep state exist? Is there really a

Symposium March/April 2018 5 concerted effort to subvert the Trump ad- who pursues the law rather than loyalty to ministration by officials? Or is an individual, as Donald Trump demands, that an outlandish allegation? The National or a Foreign Service professional who finds Interest invited leading experts, a number himself unwilling to work for a leader such of whom have served in government in as Trump, not all public servants will will- senior positions, to explicate and evaluate ingly help Trump implement his policy or the controversy surrounding a deep state. n personal preferences. Yet this mostly results in resignations, not internal rebellion. Indeed, as John Feeley, Emma Ashford ambassador to Panama, noted in his resig- nation letter, civil servants take an oath to he migration of the idea that a “deep defend the constitution. When they cannot T state” controls the U.S. government reconcile that oath or their personal opin- from the realm of fringe conspiracy theo- ions with the administration’s stances, they rists to mainstream political discussion is are “honor bound to resign.” undoubtedly one of the more intriguing Nonetheless, critics like Michael Glen- developments in the last year. But Donald non are right that there has been remark- Trump’s repeated assertions that a deep able consistency over time in U.S. foreign state exists, and that it is actively thwarting policy. Even presidents who are critical his policy agenda, pushing investigations of U.S. while campaign- into his campaign or even wiretapping his ing usually dial back that criticism in of- offices, mean that the idea has now become fice, and fail to follow through on their a part of our mental landscape. promises. Jimmy Carter’s plan to withdraw It is utter nonsense. U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula Certainly, there will always be pressure ultimately failed, while Donald Trump’s on foreign policy from entrenched interest promise to end the war in Afghanistan groups, both inside and outside the gov- eventually morphed into an increase of ernment. Political scientists study the field troops on the ground. of bureaucratic politics for a reason: insti- These critics are accurate in their depic- tutional structure and incentives matter tion of U.S. foreign policy. There is a sur- a lot. But the idea that the whole Ameri- prising amount of consistency between presi- can shares a common goal on dential administrations on foreign policy. practically any issue area simply doesn’t But whether they call it “double govern- pass muster. The tools of the so-called ment” or the “deep state,” the focus of critics “deep state”—bureaucratic inertia, internal on some unelected network of bureaucrats as policy debates, conflicts over resources— the cause of this consistency is misguided. are far more often used in interagency turf Instead, they’d do better to look to the wars than to force politicians to adopt a bipartisan foreign-policy consensus that has certain policy. guided American policy since the end of At the same time, there are undoubtedly the Cold War. This consensus—commonly civil servants who find themselves unwilling described as liberal hegemony or primacy— or unable to implement the president’s pol- focuses on a globally active icy agenda. Whether it is a special counsel with extensive overseas and alli- ance commitments, and is shared by the Emma Ashford is a research fellow in defense and majority of the policymaking community foreign-policy studies at the Cato Institute. in Washington, dc. The result is that when

6 The National Interest Symposium congressional publicity seekers, posing as commentaries are extremely weak reeds on champions of the American way. which to build a theory of the existence of This will turn out to be as much a chi- a nefarious “deep state.” The more paranoid mera as its first precursor, led by Sen. Joe supporters of President Trump say that the McCarthy and Donald Trump’s former new deep state constitutes organized re- counselor Roy Cohn. Still, American politi- sistance by federal government employees cians won’t stop seeking electoral advantage who are determined to subvert his presi- by fostering and exploiting popular beliefs dency. It should come as no surprise that that opponents of the national interest, or federal employees, mostly in civilian agen- even enemies of the people, have occupied cies, dislike President Trump’s politics and key positions in the government, media policies, especially those that call for budget and other institutions. cuts and reductions in force. But to call this But, notwithstanding lapses of vigilance resistance organized is a stretch. Indeed, it or intelligence, the electorate will eventually is laughable to claim that an escalation in figure out what news is truly fake. n leaks from disgruntled government employ- ees intending to influence policy serves as prima facie evidence of a deep state. Quite John Deutch the contrary. Such leaks, which are abhor- rent to me, many others view as a strength, here are many historical examples of not a weakness, of U.S. democracy. T groups operating within, beside or There is little analysis or evidence to in opposition to legitimate or illegitimate bear on the question of the existence of a sitting . Perhaps the most no- deep state. Perhaps a simpler question is torious instance of an effective “deep state” whether there has been a shift over recent is the covert “Black Hand” organization. years to more behavior that is characterized Headed by the Serbian intelligence chief, as coming from a deep state, and wheth- Colonel “Apis,” it engineered the assas- er such behavior risks national security. I sination of Austria’s Crown Prince Franz doubt both propositions. The significant Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914, setting off national-security threats that face the na- the First World War. tion today—, North Korea, terrorism, Today, in the United States and elsewhere, competition with China and Russia—are there are undoubtedly groups, motivated by not central in the deep-state narrative. principle, amusement, or profit, that seek Concern with a new and more danger- to influence government actions covertly. ous conspiracy by U.S. intelligence agen- Such groups employ conventional tools such cies, greed of private-sector firms, or dis- as lobbying and campaign contributions, satisfied federal or congressional staff, is and are increasing delivering their message not a mortal threat to national security or through both conventional and . stability (as Colonel Apis was in 1914). Noisy exchanges on TV programs, tweets Such behavior has been present in U.S. from the White House and magazine history since Aaron Burr’s effort to es- tablish an independent republic in the John Deutch was deputy secretary of defense and west. More importantly, the very genuine director of central intelligence in the first Clinton terrorist threat (especially augmented by administration. He was a member of the President’s cyberattacks) that the nation faces has an Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board for President entirely different set of causes, manner of George H. W. Bush. delivery and sponsorship.

Image: The lobby of CIA headquarters in McLean, Virginia, August 14, 2008. Reuters/Larry Downing.

Symposium March/April 2018 13 The deep-state narrative is stuck on a agency. That means, at least, fifteen cabinet single subject: who is doing what to whom departments and anywhere from seven to in Washington—a matter that is of scant fifteen principal agencies. To be effective, significance to most Americans and to the the minimum number of Deep State mem- future of the republic. It is the result of bers must be at least a hundred per depart- President Trump’s unexpected presidential ment and agency. Thus, the core of the Deep victory and the clash of his admittedly bi- State would be in the neighborhood of two zarre behavior and voice on the ears of the or three thousand individuals. It therefore comfortable political elite that have been seems almost indisputable that they wield in office for decades. I have sympathy with immense and largely unchecked influence. both views: President Trump’s behavior and Over time, senior officials retire and must policy actions are disruptive and nonsensi- be replaced. If this mysterious State arose cal. However, President Trump is addressing under Roosevelt, then there must have been a set of issues that have been avoided for over time some tens of thousands of secret some time by right-thinking people in both members of the Deep State. parties: the linkage between trade and jobs, Were they required to take an oath of se- economic growth, and overregulation. crecy to join this covert government? That Here is my advice. When you hear the must have been part of the arrangement; term “dark government,” change the chan- otherwise one book, not to say a whole li- nel or turn off the radio; if you see an ar- brary, would have been published by now ticle, turn the page. Give your attention to describing in thrilling detail how it all works. questions that directly bear on the welfare Perhaps the Deep State has enforcers who of our country going forward: health care, take care of those who squeal. Great re- climate change, innovation and genuine search question: how many members or national-security concerns. n former members of the Deep State met untimely and violent deaths? And where has the Washington press Gary Hart corps been all these years? Anyone remem- ber a Pulitzer Prize for uncovering the Deep t is unclear when the Deep State was cre- State right under their noses? I ated, or created itself. The moment of cre- Amazing that it took President Don- ation, however, almost certainly took shape ald Trump, who had never participated in in the twentieth century. Candidates for government or spent much time in Wash- creating the Deep State, or permitting it to ington, to reveal this secret. Perhaps he create itself, are Franklin Roosevelt or Harry is waiting for the appropriate moment to Truman: Roosevelt for domestic purposes, document the existence of the Deep State Truman for international purposes. and its membership. As a machine that runs itself, its mem- Perhaps not. bers almost certainly are senior career civil As a veteran of a few years’ service at the servants in every cabinet department and U.S. Departments of Justice and Interior, I can testify that there was little evidence of Gary Hart is chair emeritus of the American Deep State activity. Almost to a person, the Security Project, cochair of the U.S. Commission career civil servants were intelligent, dili- on National Security for the 21st Century and gent, hardworking and highly knowledge- a former member of the Senate Armed Services able about their responsibilities. They could, Committee. of course, have been sly devils meeting in

14 The National Interest Symposium