Pacific Partners Initiative

Pacific Partners Outlook

Volume IV | Issue 4 | May 2014

“Our Ocean” Offers a New Turn in U.S.-Pacific Relations Inside This Issue elke larsen the month that was —— Australia to buy 58 more F-35s for $11.2 billion Elke Larsen is the research assistant and program coordinator for the Pacific Partners Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International —— High-profile Labour politician leaves to take Studies in Washington, D.C. up Pacific ambassador role —— Tensions flare after shootings at Papua New May 9, 2014 Guinea–Indonesia border looking ahead —— Art exhibition at the Embassy of Australia Secretary of State John Kerry has made it his mission to raise awareness about the health of the world’s oceans. One cornerstone of this campaign —— Regionalism in a globalized world will be the “Our Ocean” conference hosted by the U.S. Department of State —— ExxonMobil Energy Outlook: A View to 2040 on June 16 and 17 in Washington, which will attract high-level political and thought leaders from across the Pacific. If he plays his hand well, Kerry not only will highlight pressing issues affecting oceans globally, but will help transform the agenda of the U.S.-Pacific Islands relationship.

That relationship received a boost in 2011 with the U.S. rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region, and again in 2012 when then-secretary of state Hillary Clinton became the highest-level U.S. representative ever to attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). Her proclamation that the Pacific would not be forgotten in the United States’ “Pacific Century” was bolstered by a series of initiatives including programs to support women’s equality, a shiprider agreement with the U.S. Coast Guard to increase domain awareness, the reopening of the U.S. Agency for International Development office in Papua New Guinea, and the renegotiation of the South Pacific Tuna Treaty.

Despite this flurry of activity, the Pacific Islands share doubts about whether the U.S. focus will be sustained. Unresolved issues between the United States and its three freely associated states—the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and Palau—

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“Our Ocean” Offers a New Turn in U.S.-Pacific Relations(continued)

only heighten skepticism about the U.S. promise to prioritize the region. Congress’s failure to approve Palau’s compact budget, which would support vital infrastructure, health care, and education programs, is particularly worrying.

Secretary Kerry may not be as active in the region as Secretary Clinton was, but his concern for ocean health has given the second Barack Obama administration an important opportunity to change the tone of the U.S.- Pacific Islands relationship.

For the Pacific Islands, the effectiveness of global ocean policy is a high- Secretary of State John Kerry, who has stakes game. The ocean is central to Pacific culture and is a vital source made ocean health a priority. The State of livelihood and nourishment. But global issues such as climate change, Department’s upcoming “Our Oceans” ocean acidification, pollution, and overexploitation of fisheries threaten conference offers a chance for a new the natural environment on which these islands depend. Indeed, the very tone for U.S.-Pacific Island cooperation. existence of low-lying atolls such as Kiribati and Tuvalu is under threat by https://www.flickr.com/photos/ a rise is sea levels. usembassykyiv/12932571124

The “Our Ocean” conference will focus on three main issues: overfishing, ocean acidification, and marine pollution. Each of these is important to the Pacific Islands for different reasons.

The Pacific Ocean is one of the last healthy fisheries habitats in the world, and the island states are urgently seeking solutions to manage their large exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and prevent overfishing. The Pacific Islands have had some breakthroughs, such as completing the Parties to the Nauru Agreement, which attempts to control prices and promote the development of local fisheries in their joint EEZs, and an international agreement that fishing vessels must use tracking devices. But even with shiprider agreements, which allow their personnel to accompany foreign- flagged ships, including those of the United States, the Pacific Islands do not have enough resources to effectively police their extensive EEZs.

Ocean acidification lies at the heart of concerns about the effects of climate change on the Pacific. Carbon dioxide emissions are absorbed into the ocean, altering its chemical structure. Although the effects of acidification have not been fully explored, strong evidence suggests that it contributes to the coral bleaching process that is affecting reefs as well as the sturdiness of mollusk shells.

Pollution in the Pacific is undoubtedly most visible in the form of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, which is gathering in a current vortex and

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“Our Ocean” Offers a New Turn in U.S.-Pacific Relations(continued) covers an area roughly twice the size of Texas. Less visible are the effects of chemical runoff from industry and land use. It is estimated that the Pacific Ocean will see mercury levels double at depths of 660 to 3,300 feet by 2050.

A key reason why Kerry has found traction with this issue is because many U.S. coastal areas are echoing the experiences of the Pacific Islands. The third National Climate Assessment that was released on May 6 has highlighted that changing ocean temperatures will alter the chemistry of the ocean, marine habitats, the productivity of fisheries, and coastal geography in the United States. Changes in climate are estimated to affect approximately 160 million U.S. citizens An aerial view of Tuvalu’s capital, Funafuti. who live and work in coastal communities. Tuvalu is a low-lying atoll and its very existence is threatened by rising sea Kerry is expected to announce deliverables at the upcoming conference, levels. https://www.flickr.com/photos/ dfataustralianaid/12779656093 but what those are and whether they will simply raise the profile of the issue or also open up long-term collaboration possibilities with the Pacific Islands is unknown. The tentative agenda for “Our Ocean” released on the State Department’s website lists as speakers several experts from the Pacific who have been working on the three issues to be discussed. This suggests a level of equality in dealing with ocean issues that may not be felt in other parts of the relationship.

The United States has been defined in the region by its role as a “distant water fishing nation,” an aid donor, and a colonial power, and by its history as a nuclear power. Cooperating on ocean policy is an excellent way to ultimately affect long-term change in this relationship, particularly because it is an area where expertise can be shared. While the Pacific has on-the-ground expertise and local knowledge on oceans issues, the United States can bring unparalleled technical resources to the table to work on solutions.▲

1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org The Month That Was

australia

Australia to buy 58 more F-35s for $11.2 billion. The Australian government on April 22 committed to purchasing 58 more F-35 Joint Strike Fighters from the United States for $11.2 billion. The additions will bring Australia’s total purchase to 72 F-35s, with the first planned to enter service in 2020. Canberra has the option to buy another 28 jets at a later date. The acquisition is the most expensive in Australian defense history and, according to Prime Minster Tony Abbott, will make a “vital contribution” to the country’s national security.

Abbott cancels meeting with Indonesia’s Yudhoyono. Prime Minster Tony Abbott on May 2 canceled a planned meeting with Indonesian president Two F-35 Joint Strike Fighters in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the Open Government Partnership Forum flight over Florida. Australia recently in Bali four days later. Yudhoyono had invited Abbott to meet to repair purchased 58 additional F-35s for $11.2 relations following disputes earlier this year over intelligence gathering billion. https://www.flickr.com/photos/ and Australia’s policy of turning asylum seekers back to Indonesia. Abbott airmanmagazine/12795524835 reportedly canceled the meeting due to an “on-water operation”—an apparent reference to the interdiction of asylum seekers—that could have embarrassed Yudhoyono.

Cambodia agrees “in principle” to refugee resettlement deal. Cambodia on April 30 agreed “in principle” to resettle asylum seeker detainees at Australia’s detention center on Nauru who are found to be genuine refugees. Details of the proposed agreement have not been released by either government. Human rights groups criticized the deal and UN agencies expressed concern that Cambodia may not be able to meet the legal obligations of a refugee host country. Cambodian officials denied reports that the country will receive extra Australian aid in exchange for accepting refugees.

Government proposes tax on the wealthy to pay down deficit. Prime Minister Tony Abbott on April 29 suggested that a new “deficit reduction levy” for high earners may be included in Australia’s upcoming budget. Details have not been announced, but it is expected that two tax brackets— those earning more than $74,000 and more than $168,000—will be subject to the tax, which will be used to pay down the government’s budget deficit. Members of Abbott’s Liberal Party have criticized the policy, but Abbott maintains that it is “right for the nation.” The budget will be released on May 13.

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Australian navy seizes one ton of heroin in anti-piracy operation. An Australian naval ship intercepted a boat carrying one ton of heroin off the Kenyan coast on April 26. The haul had an estimated street value of $271 million, and authorities suspect it was meant to finance terrorist organizations. The HMAS Darwin, which made the seizure, is deployed on Operation Slipper, a multinational effort to combat piracy, smuggling, and terrorism in the Middle East. The drugs were concealed in bags of cement and destroyed by the Australian navy.

Australian navy official loses command over excursions into Indonesian waters. The Australian navy announced on April 17 that a ship captain will be stripped of his command for breaching Indonesian waters during border protection operations in early 2014. Another ship captain will be administratively disciplined for his role in those operations to turn back asylum seekers headed for Australia. The navy reiterated that the breaches were inadvertent but unacceptable. The incursions caused significant Australian navy boats approach a dhow suspected of smuggling off the coast embarrassment for Canberra and anger in Jakarta. of Yemen. The Australian navy recently intercepted a boat carrying one ton of Government, prime minister’s popularity plunge. Support for Australia’s heroin off the coast of Kenya. https:// ruling Liberal-National Coalition is at a four-year low of 47 percent, www.flickr.com/photos/royal_australian_ navy/6215403289 according to a poll published on May 5 by the Australian. Satisfaction with Prime Minister Tony Abbott stands at just 35 percent. By contrast, support for the opposition Labor Party is at 53 percent. Abbott’s popularity has fallen after recent announcements that his government will institute a tax on the wealthy to reduce the deficit and gradually increase the retirement age from 65 to 70 by 2035. new zealand

New Zealand rejects criticism of Fiji policy. Foreign Minister Murray McCully on April 18 rejected nongovernmental organizations’ criticism of New Zealand’s support for Fiji’s upcoming September elections. Wellington has altered its policy toward Fiji to recognize the progress the Pacific Island nation has made toward restoring democracy. New Zealand and Australia recently lifted travel bans on members of the Fijian regime and praised the planned elections. McCully said that nongovernmental organizations should consider whether continued criticism is really beneficial for Fiji.

High-profile Labour politician leaves to take up Pacific ambassador role. Shane Jones, a well-known lawmaker from the opposition Labour Party, announced on April 22 that he will leaving politics at the end of May to take up the newly created role of Pacific economic ambassador. Jones later revealed that he would not have been comfortable working with

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the Green Party in a potential Labour-Green coalition government after the September elections, which influenced his decision to quit. Foreign Minister Murray McCully denied he “poached” Jones for political reasons, calling him the best person for the new role.

New Zealand government awards $390 million weapons upgrade contract. Wellington on May 1 awarded a $390 million contract to upgrade the weapons systems on two navy frigates to Lockheed Martin Canada. The upgrade will improve the radar, electronic detection systems, self-defense missile systems, sonars, and decoys of the almost 20-year-old HMNZS Te Kaha and Te Mana. Defense Minister Jonathan Coleman said the upgrade would allow for interoperability with Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom and enable New Zealand to deploy a “credible maritime combat force.”

The HMNZS Te Kaha refueling during an exercise. New Zealand recently awarded a Government to boost defense spending. Defense Minister Jonathan contract worth $390 million to Lockheed Coleman confirmed April 29 that the government will increase defense Martin Canada to upgrade the weapons spending by $465 million over the next four years. The upcoming budget and systems aboard the Te Kaha and will see an $86 million boost in defense spending, the first since 2010. another ship. https://www.flickr.com/ Major reforms in 2010 asked the defense force to save $300–$350 million a photos/nznavy/7632618732 year, and the resulting cuts damaged morale and led many troops to leave. The increase will raise New Zealand’s total defense budget to about $2.6 billion.

Minister resigns after allegations of interference in criminal case. Building and Construction Minister Maurice Williamson resigned his post on May 1 after revelations he called a senior police officer to ask about domestic violence charges against a Chinese businessman. Williamson warned the police that businessman Donghua Liu was “investing a lot of money in New Zealand” and they should be careful with their charges. Prime Minister John Key said Williamson had “crossed the line” and created a perception of interference with police independence.

Justice minister faces calls to quit after China trip. Justice Minister Judith Collins is facing pressure to resign following allegations she used her ministerial role to benefit her husband’s business during a trip to China in October. Collins had dinner with a Chinese border official and the owners of export company Oravida, of which her husband is a director. The minister maintains it was a private dinner, but has been reprimanded by Prime Minister John Key for allowing the perception of a conflict of interest to arise.

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pacific islands

Tensions flare after shootings at Papua New Guinea–Indonesia border. Tensions are rising at the Papua New Guinea–Indonesia border following shootings on April 18 and May 4. In the latter incident, Indonesian troops fired on Papua New Guinean soldiers, forcing authorities in Port Moresby to summon Indonesia’s ambassador and file a complaint. The Indonesian military has been ratcheting up its operations against the separatist Free Papua Movement along the border, resulting in crossings and run-ins with their Papua New Guinean counterparts. Officials from both countries will meet in late May to discuss the issue.

Fiji will not renew membership in Pacific Islands Forum. Fiji’s interim prime minister, Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama, announced April 29 that Fiji will not rejoin the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) while Australia and New Zealand remain members. Fiji was suspended in 2009 after its refusal to hold elections following a 2006 coup. Bainimarama said the PIF no longer “serves the needs of all Pacific Islanders,” and he encouraged Fiji’s neighbors to instead join the Pacific Islands Development Forum, which Fiji created in 2012. Australia and New Zealand are not eligible to join that organization.

Marshall Islands sues nuclear-armed states over failure to disarm. The Republic of the Marshall Islands filed suit on April 24 in the International Court of Justice and in federal court in San Francisco against the nine nuclear-armed states, including the United States, for failing to disarm. It alleges that those states have not met their obligations to gradually disarm, as required by the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and are instead modernizing their nuclear arsenals. The Marshall Islands were the site of 67 U.S. nuclear tests between 1946 and 1958.

Solomon Islands hit by flooding, earthquakes. Floods inundated the Solomon Islands’ capital, Honiara, on April 3, followed by magnitude 7.5 and 7.3 earthquakes that struck the islands on April 11 and 19. The floods caused widespread damage, killing 23 people and leaving 4,000 still homeless. The earthquakes caused no major damage. Evacuation centers have also been hit by a dengue fever outbreak following the floods, worsening the disaster. New Zealand and Australia have sent disaster recovery teams and extra funding to the country. Australian aid being delivered to the Solomon Islands. The Solomon Islands Fiji asks Australia to lead observers in September elections. Australia were recently hit by flooding and a series on April 30 accepted a request from the Fijian government to lead teams of earthquakes. https://www.flickr.com/ of international observers to monitor the latter’s September elections. photos/dfataustralianaid/13841125203 Australia agreed to lead the observers in conjunction with another

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country, which has not yet been determined. Fiji indicated it prefers a developing democracy to co-lead, suggesting that a joint Papua New Guinea–Melanesian Spearhead Group team could fill the role. Elections are scheduled for September 17 and will be the first in Fiji since Voreqe “Frank” Bainimarama seized power in a 2006 military coup.

Nauru refuses UN observers access to detention center. The government of Nauru on April 9 blocked members of the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention from making a regularly scheduled visit to the island. The team was to visit Australia’s offshore asylum-seeker detention center on Nauru. They were denied entry before leaving New Zealand. The Nauruan government maintains that it never extended an invitation to the group. Australia denied any involvement in the refusal of entry. ▲

1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Looking Ahead

Art exhibition at the Embassy of Australia. The Australian Embassy in Washington is displaying the work of six contemporary Australian artists through June 6. The six, all of whom work out of New York and London, are Simone Douglas, Patrick Foster, Jen Berean, Matthew Griffin, Christopher Hanrahan, and Rob McLeish. The embassy gallery will be open from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. daily. The Embassy of Australia is located at 1601 Massachusetts Ave., NW. More information can be found here. Photo identification is necessary for entry.

Regionalism in a globalized world. The William M. Scholl Chair in International Business at CSIS will host a conference May 12 on regional trade agreements, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The discussion will be led by the Inter-American Development Bank’s Antoni Estevadeordal, the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development’s Miguel Rodriguez, and CSIS’s Kati Suominen. The event will be held from 11:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW. To resister, click here.

ExxonMobil Energy Outlook: A View to 2040. The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) will host a discussion May 14 with Robert Gardner, manager of the Energy and Economics Division in the Corporate Strategic Planning Department at ExxonMobil. He will discuss ExxonMobil’s views on the future of energy generation and markets around the globe. The event will be held from 12:30 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. in the SAIS Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Ave., NW. For more information, click here. ▲

1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org pacific partners outlook CSIS Pacific Partners Initiative contributors: Ernest Z. Bower, Codirector Michael Green, Codirector Murray Hiebert, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director Gregory Poling, Fellow Elke Larsen, Research Assistant and Program Coordinator Benjamin Schaare, Researcher

For more details on our programs and to follow CSIS with real-time updates, follow the CSIS Pacific Partners Initiative: On Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/csispacificpartners On Twitter at @PacPartnersDC. On our blog, cogitASIA at http://cogitASIA.com Thank you for your interest in U.S. policy in Asia and the Pacific and the CSIS Pacific Partners Initiative. Join the conversation!

This newsletter is published by the Pacific Partners Initiative (PPI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., a private, tax- exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. CSIS’s research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

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