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Listed Banks in China: 2019 Review and Outlook

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Listed Banks in China: 2019 Review and Outlook 01 / Faster growth in operating income and net profit and slower growth in impairment allowance Listed banks in China: 2019 review and outlook Listed banks in China: 2019 review and outlook / 1 01 / Faster growth in operating income and net profit and slower growth in impairment allowance Introduction This is the 13th EY annual report on China’s listed banks. The purpose of this annual report is to provide 26 city commercial banks an outlook on the direction of the future development • ►Bank of Beijing (BOB) of China’s banking industry based on the observations •► Bank of Shanghai (BSH) of the businesses, operating models and regulatory • Bank of Jiangsu (BJS) environment of 51 listed banks in mainland China. •► Bank of Ningbo (BONB) The report covers • Bank of Nanjing (BONJ) •► Huishang Bank (HSB) 51 listed banks •► Shengjing Bank (SJB) •► Harbin Bank (HRB) with total assets and net profit accounting for 82% and •► Bank of Hangzhou (BHZ) 88% of all commercial banks in China, respectively. •► Bank of Guiyang (BGY) •► Bank of Zhengzhou (BZZ) 6 large commercial banks •► Bank of Tianjin (BTJ) • ►Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) •► Bank of Jinzhou (BJZ) • China Construction Bank (CCB) •► Bank of Chengdu (BOCD) • Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) •► Zhongyuan Bank (Z YB) • Bank of China (BOC) •► Bank of Chongqing (BCQ) • Bank of Communications (BOCOM) •► Bank of Gansu (BGS) • Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) •► Bank of Qingdao (BQD) •► Bank of ChangshaBOCS► ► 9 national joint-stock commercial •► Jiangxi BankJXB► ► banks •► Bank of JiujiangJJCCB► ► •► Bank of Xi’anBOXA► ► • ►China Merchants Bank (CMB) •► Luzhou City Commercial BankLZCCB► ► •► ►Industrial Bank (IB) •► Jinshang Bank (JSB) • ►Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) •► Bank of Suzhou (BSZ) • ►China Minsheng Bank (CMBC) •► Bank of Guizhou (BGZ) • ►China CITIC Bank (CITIC) • ►Cinda Everbright Bank (CEB) • ►Ping An Bank (PAB) 10 rural commercial banks • ►Huaxia Bank (HX) •► Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (CQRCB► • ►China Zheshang Bank (CZB) •► Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank (GRCB) •► Zijin Rural Commercial Bank (ZJRCB► The data contained in this report, unless otherwise •► Changshu Rural Commercial Bank (CSRCB) noted, are sourced from the annual reports published by the listed banks. Apart from the data for SJB, HSB, •►► Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank (WXRCB) HRB, BTJ, BOJZ, BCQ, JTRCB, CRCB, ZYB, BOGS, JXB, •► Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank (JYRCB) JSB, BGZ, JJCCB and LZCCB which are collected from •► Rural Commercial Bank of Zhangjiagang (ZJGRCB) their respective financial statements prepared under •► Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank (SZRCB► the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), •► Jilin Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank (JTRCB) data of other banks are collected from their financial •► Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank (QRCB► statements prepared under the Chinese Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises. For comparison, we have made necessary adjustments to the classification of certain data in order to make them more comparable. For the listed banks that restated their 2017 and 2018 financial statements, the restated figures are used in the report. Unless otherwise noted, the averages of all indicators of the listed banks are weighted averages. 2 01 / Faster growth in operating income and net profit and slower growth in impairment allowance Contents Executive Summary 02 01 Faster growth in operating income and net profit and slower growth in impairment allowance 04 02 Accelerated growth in total assets and on-going asset structure optimization 18 03 Retail business transformation built on customer-oriented differentiators 26 04 Divergent asset quality profiles and increased pressure on city and rural commercial banks 30 05 On-going transformation of wealth management operations and challenges in post-transition period 36 06 Innovative and expanded capital tools to accelerate capital replenishment 40 07 Sustainable development of green finance and accelerated growth of inclusive finance 46 08 Increasing FinTech investment to continue to drive innovation 50 09 Enhancing resilience to tap into new opportunities amid pandemic 56 10 Outlook 60 Appendix 64 ListedListed banks banks in in China: China: 2019 2019 reviewreview andand outlook / 1 The year 2019 was a crucial year for the Chinese banking industry. In the first decade of the 21st century, the industry Executive experienced rapid development in line with China’s rapid economic growth; and in the second decade, profit growth summary across the industry tended to be slower and more volatile amid slowing economy and heightened financial regulation. Looking at the financial results of Chinese listed banks in 2019 and forecasting trends for the next decade, the course can be summarized in three words: volatility, uncertainty and resilience. remained on a downward trend. Large commercial banks and rural commercial banks saw an upswing after 1 Volatility. a decline in total assets growth. Particularly, the total assets growth rate of rural commercial banks increased In the past three years, China’s listed banks collectively by 12.43%, 6.70% and 10.92%, respectively, in the past realized a net profit of RMB1,748.36 billion in 2019, three years, presenting a typical V-shaped movement. up 7.32% from 2018. Net profit growth stemmed the downward trend seen in 2018 and gained momentum through 2019, which was mainly attributable to the accelerated growth in operating income and slower 2 Uncertainty. growth in loan loss provision. Between 2017 and 2019, large commercial banks and national joint-stock Listed banks in China have faced more uncertainties in an commercial banks saw rising net profit growth while increasingly complex operating environment domestically city commercial banks and rural commercial banks both and globally, coupled with tightening regulation. experienced a V-shaped movement. Particularly, the net The volatile operating performance of listed banks profit of city commercial banks posted bumpy growth was largely caused by heightened macroeconomic over the three-year period at 12.80%, -3.12% and uncertainties. In 2019, downside risks to the global 11.41%, respectively. economy were more prominent, and uncertainties from Following a subdued growth in 2017, listed banks saw rising geopolitical tensions and prolonged China-US a rapid growth in operating income in 2018 and 2019. trade frictions clouded the prospects for global economic Particularly, the operating income growth of rural growth. Despite stable economic operation in 2019, with commercial banks exhibited an inverted V-shaped curve, GDP growing by 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), China faced at 3.27%, 19.50% and 9.65%, respectively, which was downward pressure on economic growth as structural and mainly due to sharper volatility in investment income cyclical factors constrained the prospects. In addition, growth. In addition, the fee and commission income the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 has inevitably had of listed banks grew slightly by 0.28% in 2017 and adverse impact on economic operation, with GDP growth declined by 1.45% in 2018, due to the implementation in the first quarter of 2020 declining to -6.8%. Globally, of new regulations on asset management and lowering the accelerated spread of the pandemic has caused fee charges to support the real economy, among other greater financial volatility and dampened economic and factors. In 2019, the fee and commission income growth trade growth severely. Meanwhile, larger-than-expected rebounded to 9.66% as listed banks grew their bank stimulus policies introduced across economies to address card business rapidly, accelerated the transformation of the impact might change the international economic and wealth management business and increased the volume trade landscape to a certain extent, posing considerable of net asset value (NAV) wealth management products uncertainties to global growth and exposing China’s (WMPs) that are aligned with the new regulations. listed banks to new challenges in business operation and development. Between 2017 and 2019, the overall loan loss provisions of listed banks increased by 7.27%, 28.79% and 11.12%, Regulatory and financial reforms had implications for respectively, presenting an inverted V-shape. In the listed banks in the following aspects. The formation same period, the loan loss provisions of city commercial mechanism of the loan prime rate (LPR) officially rolled banks increased by 0.92%, 75.62% and 12.70%, out in 2019 amid deepening interest rate liberalization respectively, while rural commercial banks recorded posed pricing challenges for listed banks; the more volatile growth of -21.89%, 103.04% and 9.18%, implementation of new regulations on asset management respectively. and the implementation rules have driven listed banks to transform their wealth management business. The Volatility is also reflected in asset and liability growth. year 2020 marks the end of the transition period for The total assets of listed banks grew by 7.01%, 6.53% implementing new regulations on asset management, but and 8.91%, respectively, between 2017 and 2019. listed banks still face challenges in the disposal of legacy The total assets growth of national joint-stock banks non-standard assets, the promotion of new products, continued to rise while that of city commercial banks NAV management, and the strategic positioning of their 2 wealth management subsidiaries as they proceed with steadily. As at the end of 2019, the core Tier-1 capital business transformation
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