Cyclone ‘BUBUL’ Situation Updates- High to Medium Risks for Bangladesh Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh Version: 01, Date: 08 November 2019 (20.00 BST)
The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Bulbul’ over west central & adjoining east central Bay of Bengal High likelihood of PERIPHERAL EFFECT OF THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “Bulbul” BY THE MORNING to afternoon of 09 November 2019. Updates on Location and direction: What you need to know? 310 km south-southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 450 km south-southwest of Sagar Islands (West Report (From – To) 07 Nov - 08 Nov Bengal) and 550 km south-southwest of 3,567,221 (Bangladesh)- Khepupara (Bangladesh). Exposed population It is very likely to intensify further till early GDACS morning of 9th November. It is very likely to (Estimated) move nearly northwards till 9th November The maximum Storm surge morning. height is Thereafter, it is very likely to re-curve forecasted 2.2m in northeastwards and cross West Bengal - Maximum storm Sharankhola Forest Bangladesh Coasts between Sagar Islands (West Office, Bangladesh. This Bengal) and Khepupara (Bangladesh), across surge Sunderban delta around midnight of 9 th height is estimated for 10 November as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with Nov 2019 10:00 BST . maximum sustained wind speed of 110- 120 (Sharankhola, Bagerhat) Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph. Vulnerability High (Bangladesh) Warning from BMD: Maritime ports of Chattogram, Cox’s Landfall: West Bengal on 10th November Early bazar, Mongla and Payra have been Moring. Bangladesh Coasts between Sagar Islands advised to lower local cautionary signal (West Bengal) and Khepupara (Bangladesh), across no three but instead hoist local warning Sundarban delta signal no. Four (r) four. Low lying areas of the coastal belt started to Impact on inundated by tidal surge. Preparation for NAWG and Assessment: Bangladesh The track of the cyclone NAWG is closely observing the cyclone track and situation. Will update every 12 hours. may cross Bangladesh NAWG already updated and prepared the tomorrow morning. secondary pre-crisis data set for the anticipated risks areas of Cyclone ‘Bulbul’. Low lying areas of Bagerhat All cluster and working group Stakhira Khulna, Borguna,
coordinator/focal are requested to stay alert Patuakhali, Pirozpur, and take necessary actions to collect their Tidal Surge Risk in Jhalokathi, Bhola and their sector specific secondary data. NAWG will Bangladesh seek collaborative support if we decided for offshore islands are prone to 72 hours’ needs Assessment. cyclonic wind and tidal Humanitarian agencies in the coastal belt surge. (GDACS) areas are requested to share field level information on situation and intervention.
Impact Anticipation: With overlay analysis of GIS track areas of proximity information from three different sources (IMD, GDACS, and Cyclocane) are analyzed and overplayed in GIS software for anticipation of impacts.
Impact Areas of Bangladesh: The current projection of The projected track anticipated that on 9th November late night or 10th November Early Morning the cyclone will land fall and sweep over Satkhira, Khulna and Bagerhat. A total 7 districts are projected as high risk prone areas. Average storm surge of about 1.0 to 1.5 meter height above astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of the coastal districts.
Anticipated Impact Areas of Bangladesh: Anticipated Impact Areas of Bangladesh: Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large Roof tops may blow off. avenue trees. Unattached metal sheets may fly. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Minor damage to power and communication Dead limbs blown from trees. lines. Major damage to coastal crops. Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Damage to embankments/ salt pans. Pucca roads.
Snapshots of Risks
District Population Under Risk Cyclone Risks Barguna 980,122 High to Medium risks Jhalokati 69,486 High to Medium risks Patukhali 511,117 High to Medium risks
Pirojpur 411,311 High to Medium risks
Very high to high risk Bagerhat 471,417 Khulna 327,675 Very high to high risk
Satkhira 796,093 Very high to high risk There is high likelihood of peripheral impact of tidal inundation in low lying areas of all coastal districts. Source: GADCS
Table: Projected Tidal Inundation location and anticipated storm Surge Height.
Date (UTC) Name Storm surge height (m) 11/10/2019 4:00 Sarankhola Forest Office 2.2 11/10/2019 16:00 Andharmanik 1.8 11/10/2019 0:00 Sibsa Point 1.8 11/10/2019 3:00 Dhalua 1.6 11/10/2019 3:00 Bara Patharghata 1.6 11/10/2019 16:00 Jagannathpur 1.6 11/10/2019 17:00 Mahishkhola 1.5 11/10/2019 18:00 Bara Krishnanagar 1.5 11/10/2019 18:00 Damla 1.5 11/10/2019 18:00 Nilkamal 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Aldi 1.4 11/10/2019 17:00 Adam Manirabad 1.4 11/10/2019 17:00 Char Tarabania 1.4 11/10/2019 17:00 Chiladi 1.4 11/10/2019 17:00 Boro Char 1.4 11/10/2019 18:00 Fatehjangpur 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Khaser Hat 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Aswadia 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Ewazbalia 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Lamchhi Prasad 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Tulatali 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Bara Ahmadpur 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Banskhali 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Miar Hat 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Chandhuri Hat 1.4
11/10/2019 19:00 Kripalpur 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Baraipur 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Maijdi 1.4 11/10/2019 19:00 Noakhali 1.4 11/10/2019 18:00 Char Haim 1.4 11/10/2019 17:00 Char Idris 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Mugadi 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Chandpur 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Aithadi 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Bara Char Kalia 1.3 11/10/2019 14:00 Bisarikati Charkhanda 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Bausia 1.3 11/10/2019 14:00 Char Kali 1.3 11/10/2019 20:00 Nayamasti 1.3 11/10/2019 20:00 Maitbhanga 1.3
11/10/2019 17:00 Char Lakshmi 1.3 11/10/2019 16:00 Chandpur 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Amanullapur 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Bamnia 1.3 11/10/2019 18:00 Bariakhali 1.3 11/10/2019 16:00 Char Hijla 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Majanadi 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Char Fakura 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Char Chandia 1.3 11/10/2019 17:00 Char Bansi 1.3 11/10/2019 16:00 Goal Bhaor 1.2 11/10/2019 17:00 Char Lawrence 1.2 11/10/2019 17:00 Ghoshbagh 1.2 11/10/2019 16:00 Char Nandanpur 1.2 11/10/2019 18:00 Baga 1.2 11/10/2019 16:00 Harni 1.2 11/10/2019 17:00 Munshir Hat 1.2 11/10/2019 18:00 Dhalapara 1.2 11/10/2019 18:00 Sandwip 1.2 11/10/2019 20:00 Char Ishwar Ray 1.2 11/10/2019 17:00 Akbar Hat 1.2 11/10/2019 18:00 Jafarnagar 1.2 11/10/2019 15:00 Bageswari 1.2 11/10/2019 15:00 Chandkati 1.2 11/10/2019 18:00 Barabkunda 1.2 11/10/2019 18:00 Bansbaria 1.1 11/10/2019 16:00 Mehdigunj 1.1 11/10/2019 16:00 Char Medua 1.1 11/10/2019 16:00 Kalupura 1.1 11/10/2019 18:00 Kumira 1.1 11/10/2019 20:00 Char Kadira 1.1 11/10/2019 20:00 Char Bedama 1.1 11/10/2019 15:00 Pangasia 1.1 11/10/2019 17:00 Char Munsi 1.1 11/10/2019 21:00 Sagaria 1.1 11/10/2019 21:00 Char Ishwar 1.1 11/10/2019 19:00 Char Falcon 1.1 11/10/2019 21:00 Char Faizuddin 1.1 11/10/2019 21:00 Maijchara 1.1 11/10/2019 18:00 Sitalpur 1.1 11/10/2019 18:00 Hatia 1.1 11/10/2019 19:00 Hazari 1.1 11/10/2019 20:00 Char Algi 1.1 11/10/2019 20:00 Char Gazi 1.1 11/10/2019 20:00 Bazemahal 1.1
Source and Disclaimer: 1. The track interpolated from projected forecast of IMD, GDACS and Cyclocane on 12.00 to 17.00 BST on 08 November 2019. 2. Information from Different Sources (GDACS, IMD, and BMD) are compiled here. No information is generated nor authored by NAWG. 3. This report is only for internal use of Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh as preparatory activities not official information of GoB. The Next report will be published at tomorrow 10.00 PM
For any kind of information please contact: 1. Kaiser Rejve; Director- Humanitarian and resilience; CARE Bangladesh E: [email protected]. 2. Md Jafar Iqbal, Coordinator-NAWG. M: +8801915177117, E: [email protected] 3. Apurba S Mahboob, TC_IM-NAWG, M: 01622837796, E: [email protected]