US Financial Accounts: Total Measures

Yardeni Research, Inc.

October 1, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents

Total Debt 1 Nonfinancial Debt 2-3 Financial Debt 4-6 Total Borrowing 7 Nonfinancial Borrowing 8 Borrowing 9 Nonfinancial Borrowing 10 Net Purchases 11

October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Total Debt Figure 1. 100.1 100.1 80.1 DEBT 80.1 60.1 (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Q2 60.1 40.1 40.1

20.1 20.1

Total Debt (nsa) (85.0) Nonfinancial Debt (sa) (63.3) Financial Debt (sa) (17.3)

yardeni.com .1 .1 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Figure 2. 400 400 US DEBT Q2 (as a percent of nominal GDP) Debt/GDP Total (389.2) Nonfinancial (289.5) 300 Financial (79.2) 300

200 200

100 100

yardeni.com 0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the .

Page 1 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nonfinancial Debt Figure 3. 65 65 US DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS Q2 60 (trillion dollars, nsa) 60

55 Nonfinancial Debt 55 50 Total* (62.8) 50 Total Less Treasury (38.5) 45 Treasury (24.3) 45

40 40

35 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5 5 yardeni.com 0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Includes mortgage, consumer, business, and US Treasury debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

Figure 4. 300 300 US DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS Q2 (as a percent of nominal GDP)

250 Nonfinancial Debt / GDP 250 Total* (287.3) Total Less Treasury (176.0) Treasury (111.3) 200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

yardeni.com 0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Includes mortgage, consumer, business, and debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

Page 2 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nonfinancial Debt Figure 5. 40.2 40.2 32.2 DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS 32.2 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 24.2 24.2

16.2 Q2 16.2

8.2 8.2

Business Debt (18.0) US Treasury Debt (24.7) Household Debt (17.3)

yardeni.com .2 .2 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Figure 6. 120 120 DEBT OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS (as a percent of nominal GDP)

100 Household Debt / GDP (79.3) 100 Business Debt / GDP (82.2) US Treasury Debt / GDP (113.2)

80 Q2 80

60 60

40 40

yardeni.com 20 20 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 3 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Financial Debt Figure 7. 35 35 DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS (as a percent of total debt)

30 30

25 Total (20.4) 25

20 Q2 20

15 15

10 10

yardeni.com 5 5 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 8. 20.4 20.4 18.4 DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS 18.4 16.4 Q2 16.4 14.4 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 14.4 12.4 12.4 10.4 10.4 8.4 Total Financial Debt (17.3) 8.4 Total Securitized Debt* (11.1) 6.4 Total Less Securitized* 6.4 Debt (6.3) 4.4 4.4

2.4 2.4

yardeni.com .4 .4 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Sum of government sponsored entreprises, agency & GSE-backed mortgage pools, and ABS issuers. Source: Flow of Funds.

Page 4 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Financial Debt Figure 9. 76 76 DEBT OF FINANCIAL SECTORS 74 (percent) 74

72 Total Securitized Debt* / 72 Financial Debt (63.9) 70 70

68 68

66 66

64 Q2 64

62 62

60 60

58 58

56 56

54 54

52 52 yardeni.com 50 50 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Sum of GSE, agency & GSE-backed mortgage pools, and ABS issuers. Source: Flow of Funds.

Figure 10. 8.1 8.1 7.3 MARKET DEBT OWED BY FINANCIAL SECTORS* 7.3 6.5 6.5 5.7 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 5.7 4.9 4.9 4.1 4.1 3.3 3.3

2.5 Q2 2.5

1.7 1.7

.9 .9

Agency & GSE-backed Mortgage Pool Securities (2.5) GSE Issues (7.9) Corporate Bonds Issued by Financial Sector (4.5)

yardeni.com .1 .1 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

* As a result of two accounting rules, FAS 166 and 167, the assets and liabilities of some special purpose entities (SPEs) have been moved onto the balance sheets of the US chartered commercial bank, government-sponsored enterprise company sectors. The consolidated assets and liabilities were removed from the agency and GSE-backed mortgage pool sector and the issuers of asset-backed securities (ABS) sector. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 5 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Financial Debt Figure 11. 4 4 CORPORATE BONDS OUTSTANDING (trillion dollars, nsa)

Financial Sector 3 3 ABS Issuers (1.2) Commercial Banking (0.2)

2 2 yardeni.com

Q2 1 1

0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 6 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Total Borrowing Figure 12. 8 8 BORROWING* (trillion dollars) 7 7

6 6

5 Debt (y/y change) 5 Total (4.6) Q2 4 Nonfinancial (3.4) 4 Financial (0.7) 3 3

2 2

1 1

0 0

-1 -1

-2 -2

yardeni.com -3 -3 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Yearly change in debt. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Figure 13. 40 40 BORROWING* 35 (as a percent of nominal GDP) Debt (y/y change) 35 Total 30 30 Nonfinancial Financial 25 25

20 Q2 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15 yardeni.com -20 -20 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 7 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nonfinancial Borrowing Figure 14. 8 8 BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS* (trillion dollars) 7 7 Debt (y/y change) 6 Total (3.4) 6 Nonfederal** (1.4) US Treasury (1.9) 5 5

4 4

Q2 3 3

2 2

1 1

0 0

yardeni.com -1 -1 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Yearly change in debt. ** Nonfederal equals Total minus US Treasury. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Figure 15. 24 24 BORROWING OF NONFINANCIAL DOMESTIC SECTORS* 22 (as a percent of nominal GDP) 22 20 20 Debt (y/y change) 18 US Treasury (9.1) 18 16 Nonfederal** (6.8) 16

14 14

12 12

10 10 Q2 8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4 yardeni.com -6 -6 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Yearly change in debt divided by 4-quarter moving average of nominal GDP. ** Nonfederal equals total nonfinancial minus US Treasury. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 8 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Borrowing Figure 16. 5100 5100 BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS 4700 (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) 4700

4300 4300

3900 3900

3500 US Treasury (1939.9) 3500 Households (1093.9) 3100 Business (275.7) 3100 2700 2700

2300 2300

1900 Q2 1900

1500 1500

1100 1100

700 700

300 300

-100 -100 yardeni.com -500 -500 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Figure 17. 2200 2200 2000 BORROWING BY FINANCIAL SECTORS 2000 (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) 1800 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 Q2 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 -200 -200 -400 -400 -600 -600 -800 -800 -1000 -1000 -1200 -1200 -1400 -1400 -1600 -1600 -1800 -1800 yardeni.com -2000 -2000 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 9 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Nonfinancial Borrowing Figure 18. 15 15 BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS (trillion dollars, saar)

10 10 Households Plus Business (1.6) US Treasury (2.3)

5 5

Q2

0 0

yardeni.com -5 -5 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Figure 19. 80 80 BORROWING BY NONFINANCIAL SECTORS (as a percent of nominal GDP)

60 60

40 40 Households Plus Business / GDP US Treasury / GDP

20 20

Q2

0 0

yardeni.com -20 -20 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 10 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Net Purchases Figure 20. 2000 2000 CORPORATE EQUITIES NET PURCHASES (billion dollars, saar) Q2 1000 Equities 1000

0 0

-1000 -1000

-2000 -2000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

15000 15000

10000 10000

Corporate & Foreign Bonds + Treasury 5000 5000 Q2

0 0

-5000 -5000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

15000 15000

10000 10000

5000 5000 Treasury Q2 0 0

-5000 -5000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

3000 3000

2000 Corporate & Foreign Bonds 2000

1000 1000 Q2

0 0

yardeni.com -1000 -1000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts.

Page 11 / October 1, 2021 / Total Debt Measures Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any --including mutual funds, futures , and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

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