Political Reviews

The Region in Review: International Issues and Events, 2015 nic maclellan

Melanesia in Review: Issues and Events, 2015 jon fraenkel, michael leach, howard van trease

The Contemporary Pacic, Volume 28, Number 2, 429–488 © 2016 by University of Hawai‘i Press

429 466 the contemporary pacific • 28:2 (2016) rbf, Reserve Bank of Fiji. 2015. Statistical YouTube. 2013. NanumiViti NanumiBau. tables. http://www.rbf.gov.fj [accessed Police to Investigate Abuse Video. Posted 29 December 2015] 5 March. https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=ppbIALbvLqU [accessed , Radio New Zealand International. rnzi 24 March 2016] Online news service. http://www.radionz .co.nz/international

Samoa Observer. 2015. Online newspaper. http://sobserver.ws/ Timor-Leste sbs, Special Broadcasting Service. Sydney. Bitter divisions within Timor-Leste’s http://www.sbs.com.au/ small political elite have been a regular feature of post-independence Scarr, Deryck. 2008. Tuimacilai: A Life of Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara. Goolwa, South politics. These were aggravated by the Australia: Crawford House Publishing. political-military crisis of 2006 that saw a breakdown in the security insti- Sikivou, Jese. 2015. E-mail message, tutions and the fall of the first govern- 21 September. Reproduced on Fijileaks, ment, and by acrimonious disputes September. http://www.fijileaks.com/ 24 in the wake of the 2007 and 2012 home/standing-up-for-rewa-and-his elections. Remarkably, interparty -chief-jese-sikivous-stinging-e-mail-to -sodelpa-top-brass-in-defence-of-ro relations improved dramatically in -kepa-and-the-condemnation-of-those 2015 with the emergence of a de facto -who-have-been-trying-to-belittle-the government of national unity between -chiefly-seat-of-ro-tui-dreketi [accessed the two major parties, the National 5 April 2016] Congress of the Timorese Reconstruc- tion (cnrt) and the Revolutionary Staples, Natalie. 2015. Royal Australian Front for an Independent East Timor Navy Returns to Fiji. Navy Daily [Royal Australian Navy news website], 16 July. (fretilin). This rapprochement saw http://news.navy.gov.au/en/Jul2015/ an opposition figure appointed as Fleet/2180/Royal-Australian-Navy prime minister to facilitate former -returns-to-Fiji.htm#.VqKIqPGmT7E resistance leader Xanana Gusmão’s [accessed 26 March 2016] move to the Ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment. This conver- Tavola, Kaliopate. 2015. Raising a New gence in Dili’s political elite built on Flag. Pacific Institute of Public Policy, 16 February. http://pacificpolicy.org/2015/ a newfound consensus style of poli- 02/raising-a-new-flag/ [accessed 26 March tics, evident since 2013. But behind 2016] the political stability and slowly improving development indicators Tikoduadua, Pio. 2015. Message to the lay deeper questions of sustainability, Fijian People from Honourable Pio Tiko­ with finite petroleum resources under duadua, Minister for Infrastructure and pressure from large budget expendi- Transport and Leader of the Government in the Parliament of Fiji. 5 November. tures, and a demographic bulge of http://www.fiji.gov.fj/Media-Center/Press young East Timorese about to enter -Releases/STATEMENTS-ON-THE an overstretched labor market. Some -RESIGNATION-OF-THE-MINISTER concerns were also expressed over -FOR-.aspx [accessed 24 March 2016] the lack of an effective parliamentary political reviews • melanesia 467 opposition in Dili as 2015 came to a in East Timorese politics, Gusmão’s close. departure from center stage was Formed in the wake of the 2012 a known watch point for political parliamentary elections, the multiparty stability. This extraordinary remaking coalition government Bloku Governu of the government was also designed Koligasaun (Government Coalition to smooth the transition from the Bloc) headed by Gusmão’s cnrt party “1975 generation” of leaders that put Timor-Leste’s oldest continu- has dominated post-independence ing party, fretilin, once again in politics since 2002. Gusmão’s continu- opposition. Through 2013 and 2014, ing presence comes with oversight of there had been clear signs of public the National Development Agency, rapprochement between the two key which keeps him centrally involved in figures of Prime Minister Gusmão infrastructure policy and will aid the and the opposition fretilin leader, new government in its dealings with former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri. the critical constituency of military This was evidenced by fretilin’s resistance veterans. Gusmão’s move unprecedented support for budget away from direct responsibility for votes in Parliament and the appoint- defense and police, meanwhile, was ment of Alkatiri as the head of a a significant indication of increasing major project to develop the exclave confidence in stability, despite ongoing of Oecusse as a special economic zone. tensions with restive dissident veterans The long-anticipated resignation of groups, including the Sagrada Familia, prime minister and former resistance led by disaffected former guerrilla leader Xanana Gusmão still surprised commander Cornelio “l7” Gama. observers in early 2015 when Dr Rui Although Rui Araújo comes from Araújo, a high-profile member of the opposition party, his relationship the opposition party fretilin, was with Gusmão dates back to the early appointed as his successor. The new 1990s when he was a clandestine prime minister was sworn in alongside messenger in the student resistance. three new ministers from fretilin, After training as a doctor in Indonesia who joined a smaller, revamped min- and working in Dili in the late 1990s, istry dominated by Gusmão’s cnrt Araújo undertook a master’s degree in party. Though Gusmão’s retirement public health in New Zealand, focus- had been on the cards since 2013, and ing on models for a new health system a government of national unity has for Timor-Leste. He served as health been discussed for many years, the minister in the first post-independence outcome was still remarkable in light government from 2001 to 2007 and of the bitter relations between the two was briefly deputy prime minister. A major parties as recently as 2012. widely respected figure, Araújo was a Smoothing a difficult political political independent until he joined transition, Gusmão took the position fretilin in 2010. Most recently, he of planning and investment minister, was a senior advisor to the health and a move designed to provide stability finance ministries and is regarded as as the new government took its first a highly competent and incorruptible steps. Given his enormous stature administrator. These aspects of his 468 the contemporary pacific • 28:2 (2016) public reputation were evidently criti- Though fretilin insisted the new cal to Gusmão’s choice (rtp 2015). ministers would serve as individuals That Gusmão was able to per- rather than as party representatives, suade his own party, cnrt, to back there was a clear sense that these this deal, given the known leadership moves formalized the accord that has ambitions of other senior figures, was prevailed between Gusmão and the a testimony to the importance of his fretilin leadership over previous charismatic authority to their political years. Some commentators worried, fortunes. In his swearing-in speech, not without justification, that account- the new prime minister described the ability might suffer under what is outcome as “a more pragmatic logic effectively a “grand coalition,” albeit of serving the national interest . . . the one best described as a power-sharing coming together of wills, experience executive. For more traditional East and skills will allow us to overcome Timorese outside the capital, however, the traditional political and demo- this attempt at a consensus politics cratic contest, so that we may meet resonates far more closely with local the challenges faced by the coun- notions of political legitimacy than the try” (Araújo 2015). Araújo warmly winner-takes-all model of party com- acknowledged the 1975 generation petition, which is often seen as divisive of leaders—Gusmão, former Prime and foreign. If the new power-sharing Minister Alkatiri, and José Ramos- executive performs well, there is a Horta, along with current President strong chance it could be taken to the Taur Matan Ruak—as “older broth- scheduled 2017 elections with rela- ers,” signaling this moment as one of tively minor modifications. It would generational change. prove a formidable opponent. Along with the prime ministership, For the other, smaller parties in fretilin took the key portfolios of Timor-Leste’s former governing foreign affairs and agriculture. The coalition, the outcome of Gusmão’s appointment of Hernani Coelho, a changes was less appealing. While former ambassador to Australia, to Fernando “Lasama” de Araújo, the the foreign affairs portfolio showed leader of the Democratic Party (pd) the priority of resolving key issues in and a former leader of the student that relationship, including spying clandestine resistance movement allegations and a growing rift between Resistência Nacional dos Estudantes the two countries over their maritime de Timor-Leste (renetil), retained a boundaries. cnrt continued to domi- senior coordinating ministry in social nate the rest of the ministerial posi- affairs and education, the former cnrt tions, with senior figures Agio Pereira coalition partner was left playing a (minister of state and of the Council of subsidiary role in the new government. Ministers) and Dionísio Babo-Soares In June 2015, Dili was rocked by de (state administration and justice) Araújo’s sudden death of a stroke at retaining major coordinating minis- age fifty-two. tries that saw them continue to wield The Program of the Sixth Consti- considerable power in the reformed tutional Government, issued in April government. 2015 (rdtl 2015c), offered some political reviews • melanesia 469 changes in direction, with Prime Min- political parties but is not supported ister Rui Araújo pledging to “fight the by the commercial partner in the culture of bureaucratisation in pub- Greater Sunrise gas field, Woodside lic administration” and promising a Petroleum. While domestic and inter- “new bureaucratic order that is leaner, national critics urged the government more professional, more technical to begin the long process of steering and less politicised.” He also signaled the country away from big-money a new economic direction, a halt to megaprojects and the overspending the “waste and the ineffective use of of Timor-Leste’s finite oil and gas public monies,” and a welcome com- revenues to focus more on health and mitment to economic diversification in education, the 2015 budget showed neglected areas such as tourism, agri- little sign of diverging from the former culture and fisheries (Araújo 2015). pattern of high spending on infrastruc- This shift in political culture toward a ture—mostly in the form of contracts more “rational-legal” mode of politi- let to the private sector. In 2015, this cal legitimacy, from the charismatic represented some 36 percent of the legitimacy of Gusmão, borne of his budget, including the Oecusse Spe- historic leadership of the resistance, cial Market Economy Zone (zeesm) would be a challenging one. Other Authority, which received us$82 themes of the speech included commit- million in public transfers. By com- ments to finalizing the long-delayed parison, expenditures on education Land and Property Law and prioritiz- (9.5%), health (4.6%), and agriculture ing education spending, particularly to (2.25%) have been modest. Pen- encourage women to enter the labor sion payments to the many veterans market. Welcome commitments to of Timor-Leste’s long independence fighting domestic violence and making struggle are a particular focus, repre- the formal justice system more actively senting 8.7 percent of the 2015 bud- bilingual were featured. get, a figure that exceeded the monies The key focus of government spent on the security sector (6%) (La‘o economic strategy remains the Stra- Hamutuk 2015). tegic Development Plan 2011–2030 Most growth was driven by govern- developed by former Prime Minister ment spending, drawing on returns Gusmão. A central component of from Timor-Leste’s petroleum fund, this ambitious plan is a South Coast which now stands at us$16.22 billion, Petroleum Corridor comprising a sup- representing its lowest value since ply base in the southern town of Suai, April 2014. Timor-Leste remained a refinery farther east in Betano, and a highly dependent on petroleum reve- liquefied natural gas (lng) processing nues at 95 percent of national income, facility in Beacu. To further this vision, second only to South Sudan in that major road infrastructure development regard, with the small balance domi- is proposed along the south coast, nated by coffee exports. While a new with highway links to Dili. The core middle class thrived on government aspect of this vision relies on onshore contracts for infrastructure develop- processing of liquefied natural gas, a ment, employment growth from the position that has united East Timorese oil revenues was relatively limited. 470 the contemporary pacific • 28:2 (2016)

The government’s policy of spend- national celebration in 2015. Coincid- ing above the Estimated Sustainable ing with the fortieth anniversary of the Income threshold of Timor-Leste’s unilateral declaration of independence sovereign wealth fund has been justi- in 1975, yearlong commemorations fied in terms of the need to accelerate took place, leading up to the highlight development, though local nongovern- of the 28 November celebration in mental organizations have warned that Oecusse. A government resolution in if government spending is not made April created an Organisation Com- sustainable, Timor-Leste’s current oil mittee for the Commemoration of the wealth could be depleted within ten five hundred years since the Affirma- to twenty years, just as a demographic tion of the New Timorese Identity explosion of young adults enters the (rdtl 2015a). The government labor market. Local nongovernmen- announced that the commemoration tal organization La‘o Hamutuk (the was intended “as a starting point, to Timor-Leste Institute for Develop- signal the arrival of the Portuguese ment Monitoring and Analysis, based navigators and missionaries to Lifau, in Dili) estimated that at the current Oecusse Ambeno, and represents a rate the petroleum fund would be historic mark in the affirmation of exhausted somewhere between 2025 the new Timorese identity and the and 2035, depending on varying construction of Timor-Leste” (rdtl scenarios for oil prices and the scale of 2015b). Promotion of the yearlong likely remaining deposits in the Timor commemorations heavily emphasized Sea (La‘o Hamutuk 2016). Agricul- the arrival of the Catholic Church, tural spending was not increased with plans for a reenactment of the despite this sector still representing the first arrival of Dominican priests. majority of East Timorese subsistence Some aspects of official celebra- livelihoods. In the meantime, Timor- tions attracted considerable criticism Leste’s high-cost, low-skills economy from younger East Timorese, confused was proving difficult to diversify, with by what appeared to be a celebration economic activity continuing to center of the colonial relationship that had on public-sector spending of oil and initiated generations of forced labor gas revenues, raising the specter of and chronic underdevelopment (see, the “resource curse,” in which devel- eg, Goncalves 2015). For the govern- opment of other more sustainable ment, however, the focus was clearly industries is neglected and maladies on the historical relationship with the such as political corruption and Catholic Church, seen as integral to ­clientelism may be facilitated. Notably, a distinctive East Timorese national President Taur Matan Ruak vetoed identity. the 2016 budget law in late December The new prime minister’s com- 2015, arguing that the budget did not mitment to increasing cooperation adequately tackle the pressing need of between State and Church was not poverty alleviation. just rhetorical. In August, to com- The five-hundred-year anniversary memorate the five hundredth anni- of the arrival of the Portuguese in versary of the Portuguese arrival, a Lifau, Oecusse, prompted a major concordat was signed with the Vati- political reviews • melanesia 471 can. These agreements offer particular cpd-rdtl and the Maubere Revolu- privileges to the Church and have tionary Council (krm) after members been relatively rare since the Second wearing uniforms conducted military Vatican Council. Earlier versions were exercises in the Baucau district. By criticized for compromising the sepa- mid-2014, tensions surrounding disaf- ration of Church and State, though fected veterans’ groups appeared to other signatories in recent years have calm considerably, only to flare up included Community of Portuguese again in January 2015 in a standoff Language Countries (cplp) members between the National Police of East Portugal and Brazil (Sainsbury 2015). Timor (pntl) and the krm, in Laga, in The mass celebrating the concordat Baucau District. Police blockades were was convened at Tasitolu, recalling the set up throughout the country in June 1989 visit of Pope John Paul II that and July to regulate the movements saw clandestine independence activists of these groups. In August 2015, krm unfurl protest banners. The concor- leader Mauk Moruk was killed during dat guaranteed a public role for the a confrontation with a joint force of Catholic Church “in line with consti- army and police in Baucau District. tutional norms and local legislation,” Despite krm claims of widespread in providing “spiritual assistance” in support, the country remained calm in prisons, hospitals, orphanages, and the wake of this episode. schools. The contrast with the former Relationships with its two major fretilin government’s opposition neighbors continued to occupy Dili’s to mandatory religious education in diplomats. The Program of the Sixth state schools was evident, with the Government committed more stri- freedom to profess and practice the dently to issues of national sover- Catholic faith publicly declared a eignty, and to “safeguarding the inde- “religious freedom.” The concordat pendence, sovereignty and territorial had been in development since 2006, integrity of our Nation” (rdtl 2015c, the time of the Second Constitutional 77). Most notably, a new Council for Government. Prime Minister Araújo Delimitation of Maritime Boundaries noted that the concordat confirmed was formed in 2015 for the purpose of that Catholicism and the Portuguese furthering maritime boundaries with language are “two elements which Australia and Indonesia (Ministry have shaped our identity as a nation” of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation (Sainsbury 2015). 2015). In the case of Indonesia, the The new moderation of politi- parties agreed on a schedule of major cal conflict also saw the state seek maritime boundary delimitation talks to tackle dissident veterans’ groups to take place in 2016 to determine like the Committee for the Popular some small remaining sections of their Defense of the Democratic Republic land border as well as the much larger of Timor-Leste (cpd-rdtl) who do issue of sea boundaries. not recognize the 2002 Constitution Relations with Australia continued and seek a return to the state declared at a low ebb, with no formal ministe- in 1975. In March 2014, Parliament rial visits between the two states since had moved to proscribe both the 2013. The government of Timor-Leste 472 the contemporary pacific • 28:2 (2016) continued its Permanent Court of the first time since the late occupa- Arbitration case to have the 2006 tion era, the key question at the close Certain Maritime Arrangements in of the year was whether the lack of the Timor Sea (cmats) treaty voided, an effective parliamentary opposition which delayed maritime boundary will create a vacuum for new political negotiations for fifty years, following entrants in 2016. allegations from a former Austra- michael leach lian Secret Intelligence Service (asis) operative that the Australians had spied on the East Timorese negotiat- References ing team in 2004 in order to secure a commercial advantage in revenue- Araújo, Rui. 2015. Speech of the new sharing talks. Timor-Leste seeks to Timor-Leste New Prime Minister on the have the cmats treaty nullified under Occasion of the Swearing-in of the New the wider principle, codified under Government, Lahane Palace, Dili, 16 Feb- the Vienna Convention on the Law of ruary. http://timor-leste.gov.tl/wp-content/ Treaties, that negotiations should take uploads/2015/02/Swearing-in-of-the-Sixth -Constitutional-Government- . . place in good faith. In 2015, Timor- 16 2 20151 .pdf [accessed 31 March 2016] Leste dropped a separate case against Australia before the United Nation’s Goncalves, Ivo Mateus. 2015. Civilization International Court of Justice after at What Cost? New Mandala (Coral Bell Canberra returned documents seized School of Asia Pacific Affairs, ­Australian National University), 1 December. http:// from Timor-Leste’s Australian coun- asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2015/ sel (Hurst 2015). A third case over 12/01/civilization-at-what-cost/ [accessed assessment of pipeline tax revenues in 14 March 2016] the Joint Petroleum Development Area Hurst, Daniel. 2015. Timor-Leste also proceeded throughout 2015. In Welcomes Australia’s Return of Spying the wake of a twenty-four-year fight Documents Seized by Asio. The Guardian, for Timor-Leste’s independence, the 3 May. http://www.theguardian.com/ unresolved maritime border issue had world/2015/may/04/east-timor-welcomes become a totemic issue of national -australias-return-of-spying-documents sovereignty by 2015. Timor-Leste’s -seized-by-asio [accessed 14 March 2016] major political parties have united La‘o Hamutuk. 2015. General State around the need to settle these bound- Budget 2015. Updated 15 December. aries, a position that appears to have Available via http://www.laohamutuk strong support in the wider Timorese .org/econ/OGE15/14OGE15.htm society. [accessed 14 March 2016] With elections scheduled for 2017, ———. 2016. Timor-Leste Petroleum and the historical leadership of the Fund. Updated 7 February. Available via country transitioning out of politics, http://www.laohamutuk.org/Oil/PetFund/ Timor-Leste was poised for a genera- 05PFIndex.htm [accessed 14 March 2016] tional shift on the road to democratic Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Coop- consolidation. While 2015 saw a wel- eration. 2015. The Council for the Final come return to a position of national Delimitation of Maritime Boundaries. unity and “consensus” politics for Maritime Boundary Office, 4 June. political reviews • melanesia 473 http://static1.squarespace.com/static/ how intent the current government 544602fae4b076f26051926a/t/ was to pursue the investigation of 55aed867e4b025f8fc5e79ba/ alleged bribery involving a number of 1437522023679/MBO+Booklet members of Parliament (mps) dat- +040615+Med+Res+ENG.pdf ing back to the previous year (vdp, 2 [accessed 29 March 2016] Jan 2015). Indeed, the bribery case rdtl, República Democrática de Timor- dominated the news throughout 2015, Leste (Government of Timor-Leste). making it the most politically unset- 2015a. 500th anniversary of the Affirma­ tled year since Vanuatu’s independence tion of the Timorese Identity. 5 September. in 1980. http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=13165&lang In early November , the local =en [accessed 21 March 2016] 2014 press reported that the leader of the ———. 2015b. Meeting of the ­Council of Opposition, Moana Carcasses, had Ministers of 14 April 2015. Press release, deposited a check for 35 million vatu 14 April. http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p in his personal account at a local bank =11656&lang=en [accessed 29 March 2016] and subsequently transferred sums of money ranging from vt500,000 ———. 2015c. Program of the Sixth to vt1 million into the accounts of a Constitutional Government 2015–2017. number of s ( vatu [ ] aver- 3 March. http://timor-leste.gov.tl/wp mp 100 vt -content/uploads/2015/04/Program-of-the aged around us$.91 in 2015). Ten -Sixth-Constitutional-Government-2015 days later, the prime minister, Joe -2017.pdf [accessed 29 March 2016] Natuman, and deputy prime minister, Ham Lini, lodged a motion in Parlia- rtp, Rádio e Televisão de Portugal. 2015. Rui Araujo sera pm pela sua experiencia e ment to suspend sixteen Opposition conhecimento profundo do sistema finan- mps on charges of alleged bribery, ceiro diz Xanana Gusmao. rtp Notícias, based on provisions in the Leader- 9 February. http://www.rtp.pt/noticias/ ship Code that leaders in government index.php?article=803330&tm=7&layout should conduct themselves so as to =121&visual=49 [accessed 14 March avoid demeaning their office or the 2016] integrity of the Republic of Vanuatu. Sainsbury, Michael. 2015. Timor-Leste The next day, Carcasses tabled a to Sign Historic Treaty with the Vatican. motion of no confidence against the UCANews (Union of Catholic Asian Natuman government. News, Hong Kong), 6 August. Speaker of Parliament Phillip http://www.ucanews.com/news/timor Boedoro ruled that the two motions -leste-to-sign-historic-treaty-with-the should be dealt with in the order they -vatican/ [accessed March ] 74035 14 2016 were received; thus the bribery case against sixteen Opposition mps was debated first. Carcasses denied the allegation of bribery, claiming instead Vanuatu that he had offered the money as The headline in the Vanuatu Daily “loans” to any mp—either Opposi- Post on the first day after the New tion of Government—who was willing Year holiday—“Police Boss Orders to “pledge their allegiance to him.” Bribery Case Completion”—indicates On 25 November, however, Parlia-