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Corporate Headquarters: Boise, Idaho Industry: Semiconductors October 23rd, 2015 Current Statistics Micron Technology Exchange: NASDAQ Ticker: MU Price Initiating Coverage Piotr Felusiak Price 23 October 2015 17.24 Senior Analyst 52-week range 13.50 – 36.59 [email protected] DCF price target 23.66 Allison Baehr Brittany Rich Junior Analyst Junior Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Stock Price Performance Business Description 40 Micron Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides 35 semiconductor solutions worldwide. The company manufactures and 30 markets dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash, and NOR flash memory products; and packaging solutions and semiconductor 25 systems. It operates in four segments: Compute and Networking Business 20 Unit (CNBU), Mobile Business Unit (MBU), Storage Business Unit (SBU), and 15 Embedded Business Unit (EBU). The company markets its products to 10 original equipment manufacturers and retailers through its internal sales Jul-… Jan-… Jun-… Oct-… Apr-… Feb-… Sep-… Aug-… Mar-… force, independent sales representatives, and distributors; and through a May-… Web-based customer direct sales channel, and channel and distribution partners. Selected Financial Data Investment Positives Duopoly: high barriers to entry in a fast growing market dominated by a few large players Market Cap $18,557.1M Low Leverage: Debt/EBITDA 1.3x Enterprise Value $22,377.1M Manufacturing Process: Industry leader in patents, own manufacturing Shares Outstanding $1,076.4M facilities around the world, strong partnerships with reputable brands Net Income $2,889.0M Investment Risks EBITDA $5,803.0M Decrease of demand in PC market EV/EBITDA 3.9x Cost as the main differentiator between competitors leads to thinning Debt/EBITDA 1.3x profit margins P/B 1.5x Capital intensive business that account for a large percentage of … EV/Revenue 1.4x Catalyst 3DXPoint will be the first new class of memory since NAND flash was introduced in 25 years. Industry consolidation Reorganization of segments Attractive LBO acquisition candidate 2015 Orange Value Fund, LLC All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via CapitalIQ, Bloomberg and other vendors. Micron Technology NASDAQ: MU The Orange Value Fund Executive Summary Founded in 1978, Micron has grown from a little known tech company finding its roots in Boise, Idaho into the last remaining U.S. based supplier of memory chips with international extent. The company manufactures and markets dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash, and NOR flash memory products; and packaging solutions and semiconductor systems. It operates in four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Storage Business Unit, and Embedded Business Unit. New generations of products offer improved performance characteristics such as higher data transfer rates, reduced package size, lower consumption, improved read/write reliability and increased memory density. Growth has been driven by key managers with impressive career experiences with Micron and other reputable brands in the industry. Current Chief Executive Officer, Mark Durcan, held multiple leading roles within Micron’s top management positions over the past thirty years, including President, Chief Operating Officer, Chief Technology Officer, and more. Mark Durcan assumed his CEO responsibilities in 2012 after his predecessor was cited as failing to generate wealth or strategically diversify operations for shareholders. Micron’s Current Chief Financial Officer and Vice president of Finance holds an impressive professional background of top management positions working for similar companies, like Inotera Memories, Inc. These leaders are motivated to push improvement with a majority of their pay coming from incentive based programs. Micron’s growth is also driven by a greater emphasis on pursuing resource conversion activities, including mergers and acquisitions and asset restructurings, over the past few years. These strategic decisions lead to a stronger financial position which will permit similar moves in the near future. Value-adding resources are widely available and are reflected through a manufacturing process that blends capital- intensive properties with intangible assets. Significant investments have been made to develop proprietary product and process technologies in their manufacturing facilities located around the world. Along with these properties, partnerships with strong companies have been able to increase manufacturing scale and product diversity. Micron competes in a highly cyclical environment because of their sensitivity to the PC market. The PC market shows fluctuating demand in response to timely innovations of PC products, and that demand pattern carries over to the semiconductor industry. Major customers of semiconductors are at the bottom of their business cycles experiencing a decline in demand for computer and networking devices. In response to this decline, the nominal value of share prices have decreased by more than half since the beginning of 2015 and have experienced a more significant change compared to other players in the semiconductor industry. This slide is unwarranted when considering the assets that the company owns and the catalysts that will spur future growth for the company. The Orange Value Fund, LLC. 1 Micron Technology NASDAQ: MU The Orange Value Fund Industry Analysis Semiconductors are used in electronic circuits as they have a certain material makeup that is halfway between the resistances of insulators and metal. Therefore, it is semi-conductive, hence the name. Semiconductors are used in electronics because they are able to control the flow of electrons, without controlling the current. The semiconductor industry is very broad and can be divided into smaller sectors that focus on producing memory, microprocessors, transistors, microcontrollers, and other specialized products. These products have become commoditized overtime because computer hardware manufacturers depend on them to drive innovation in their technological devices. Companies strive to beat their competition and churn out chips that are smaller, faster, and cheaper. Many of these companies control both the design and the manufacturing of such chips to help ensure that their chips are on the cutting edge of technology. Micron has found a market niche in the memory sector of the semiconductor industry. Memory chips are one of the four broad product categories that exist in the semiconductor industry. Memory chips temporarily store data, and are efficient when transferring data around the “brain” of an electronic system. Including Micron, the largest players in the memory space include Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., SanDisk Corp., Sk Hynix Inc. and Toshiba Corporation. The semiconductor industry is expected to experience an increase in annualized revenue of 1.6% for the next five years. This will be due in part to the fact that so far in 2015, chip companies have announced the largest amount of mergers and acquisitions in the past ten years. The $100.6 billion of activity reported for 2015 dwarfs the $37.7 billion of M&A in 2014, even though less deals were made. Memory chips in general are experiencing severe industry consolidation in order to keep prices low on already thin profit margins. A majority of their profits are driven by PC demand, but will gradually expand into a broader range of everyday products that included cars, appliances and other needs. The memory chip industry is highly sensitive to the business cycle of the computer hardware industry, seeing higher revenues during periods of PC demand growth. The annual EV/EBITDA correlates directly with the previous year performance in computer hardware sales. The computer hardware industry is one that manufactures and assembles desktop and laptop computers, as well as peripheral devices such as servers, modems, and routers. The computer hardware industry is expected to grow at a rate of .7% over the next five years due to the growth of the middle class in BRIC nations. Additionally, growth is expected to occur in response to other factors as well including the consumer sentiment index, expanding global internet usage, and the increase in number of students (and therefore technology used for teaching), the demand for hardware, and the memory chips that go with it. Major competitors in this industry include, Hewlett Packard and Dell. The Orange Value Fund, LLC. 2 Micron Technology NASDAQ: MU The Orange Value Fund DRAM Market Share 2010-2014 Source: http://www.statista.com/statistics/271726/global-market-share-held-by-dram-chip-vendors-since-2010/ The three major players in the DRAM space of semiconductors by revenue are Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Elpida Memory is not reported during Q3 of 2013 because they were acquired by Micron on July 31, 2013. The acquisition of Elpida substantially increased Micron’s market share. NAND Market Share 2010-2014 Source: http://www.statista.com/statistics/275886/market-share-held-by-leading-nand-flash-memory-manufacturers-worldwide/ Samsung, Toshiba, SanDisk, and Micron account for more than 80% of the market for NAND. Micron is much weaker in this area of the memory business coming in as the fourth largest manufacturer with a 13.7% market share according to revenue. The Orange Value Fund, LLC. 3 Micron Technology NASDAQ: MU The Orange Value
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