Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1St to 10Th August 2021

REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 88

Forecasts and Dekadal Climate Alerts for the Period 1st to 10th August 2021

st 1 August 2021

© NOCC August 2021, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC).

Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director General, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG Rene Ramses, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. MEKA ZE Philemon Raïssa, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°88 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El- Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1st to 10th August 2021. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 . II. Forecast Summary

II.1. For Temperatures II.1.1. Maximum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Tibati, Betare Gongon and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Eseka, Nanga Eboko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Ambam, Djoum, Kribi, Sangmelima and Zoetele in the South region; - Loum, Edea, Douala, Manjo and Mouanko in the Littoral region. II.1.2. Minimum Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to the historical mean for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region; - Poli and Touboro in the North region; - Esu and Ako in the North West region; - Mundemba in the South West region. NB1: This dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 will be marked by a number of days with cold nights around the average recorded in the last decade in some localities of the West (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Mbouda and Bafang), North West (Nkambe, Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Nwa, Ako, Esu, Bamenda and Santa), Adamawa (Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere, Tignere, Meiganga, Banyo, Tibati, Yimbere and Mbakaou) and East regions (Mambele, Betare’ Oya and Garoua-Boulai).

II.2. For Precipitation The period from 1st to 10th August 2021 will be marked by an abundance in rainfall amounts compared to those recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in the Sudano-sahelian zone, High Guinean Savannah zone, High Plateau zone and

the monomodal rain forest zone. st th NB2: This dekad, from 1 to 10 August 2021, corresponds to:

-the continuation of the short dry season in the Bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), marked by very low rainfall amounts;

- the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), marked by excess in rainfall amounts with a risk of landslide s due to the saturation of water in the soil; - the continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South-West regions), marked by high an abundance in rainfall amounts ; - the continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean high savannah zone (Adamawa region), marked by an abundance in rainfall amounts;

- the continuation of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds and storms.

2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th August 2021

1) For precipitation

a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone - abundant rainfall amounts compared to the average recorded during the dekad st th The dekad from 1 to 10 August will from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Nwa, Kumbo, Ndop, Benakuma, Fundong, Nkambe, be marked by: Bali, Batibo, Widikum, Wum, Bamenda, Munkep, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom and - abundant rainfall amounts in Kousseri, Ako in the North West region. Makary, Waza, Maroua, Gamboura, Kaele, Maga and Bogo, accompanied by e) In the Monomodal rain forest zone strong winds in the Far North region; We expect: - abundant rainfall amounts above the - abundant rainfall amounts compared to the average recorded during the dekad average recorded during the dekad from from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Eyumojock, Mamfe, Mundemba, Nguti, Muyuka,

st th 21 to 30 July 2021 in Guider, Poli, Kumba, Bamusso, Dikome Balue, Fontem, Buea, Tiko, Limbe and Idenau in the Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, South West region; Garoua, Pitoa and Lagdo in the North - abundant rainfall amounts, slightly above the average recorded during the dekad region. from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Melong, Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Yabassi,

Nkondjock, Dibombari, Mbanga, Penja, Edea, Mouanko and Dizangue in the b) In the Guinean high savannah zone Littoral region. This dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 will be marked by abundant rainfall amounts way above the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Tibati, Yimbere, Tignere, Banyo, Mbakaou, Ngaoundal, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region. c) In the Bimodal rain forest zone We expect: - very low rainfall amounts in (a) Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Nanga- (b) Eboko, Monatele, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Akonolinga and Nkoteng; above the average recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Ngoro, Yoko and Ngambe Tikar in the Centre region; - very low rainfall amounts in Zoetele, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Ambam, Lolodorf, Campo, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan; above the average in Kribi in the South region; - very low rainfall amounts in Lomie, Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang, Yokadouma, Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) compared to that Moloundou and Mindourou; above the recorded during the period July 21-30, 2021 (a) Source: NOCC, August 2021 average in Bertoua, Garoua-Boulai, st th B elabo, Batouri and Betare-Oya in the NB 3: For the dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021, we expect: -the continuation of the short dry season in the Bimodal rain forest zone (Centre, South and East region. East regions), marked by very low amounts of rainfall; d) In the Highlands zone - the continuation of the rainy season in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), marked by excess in rainfall amounts with a risk of landslides due to the saturation of water in We expect: the soil; - abundant rainfall amounts compared - the continuation of the rainy season in the monomodal rain forest zone (Littoral and South- to the average recorded from 21st to 30th West regions), marked by an abundaance high in rainfall amounts; July 2021 in Koutaba, Foumban, - the continuation of the rainy season in the Guinean high savannah zone (Adamawa region), Foumbot, Tonga, Makam, Bafoussam, marked by an abundance in rainfall amounts; Bafang, Dschang, Batcham, Bazou, - the continuation of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, marked by heavy rainfall Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bangangte, accompanied by strong winds and storms. Massagam and Bare-Bakem in the West region;

2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bafoussam, Mbouda, Batcham, Dschang, Based on the historical mean maximum temperatures recorded Bazou, Bafang, Bangangte and Tonga; around the mean in Makam, Foumban, Koutaba and during this dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, notably Foumbot in the West region; 30.75 °C in the Far North region; 30°C in the North region 28.1°C - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Eyumojock, Bamusso, in the Adamawa region; 27°C in the Centre region; 27.48°C in the Idenau, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Buea, Bakogo, Limbe, Fontem and Nguti; above the historical mean South region; 27.13°C in the East region; 23.52°C in the West in Mamfe, Buea and Kumba in the South West region; region; 24.82°C in the North West region; 26.1°C in the South- - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Manjo, Mouanko, Edea, Douala, Loum West region and 24.6°C in the Littoral region, for the dekad from and Yabassi; around the historical mean in Melong, Dibombari, Nkongsamba, Penja, Dizangue, st th 1 to 10 August 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: Ndokiti III, Nkondjock, Ndokama, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral region. - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mokolo, Maroua, Yagoua, Maga, Bogo, Waza, Gamboura, Makary, Kaele and Mindif; around the historical mean in Kousseri in the Far North region; - around the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tchollire, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Dembo, Pitoa and Lagdo; below the historical mean in Guider, Poli and Garoua in the North region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Betare Gongon, Ngaoundal, Tibati and Mbakaou; below the mean in Yimbere, Meiganga, Dota, Tignere, Mbe and Ngaoundere; around the historical mean in Banyo in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mbalmayo, Yoko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, (a) (b) Monatele, Nkoteng, Ngoro, Ngambe Tikar, Eseka, Obala and Yaounde in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua, Dimako, Mindourou, Lomie, Betare- Oya Abong-Mbang, Ngoyla, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai and around the historical mean in Mambele and Libongo in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Sangmelima, Kribi and Zoetele; around the historical mean in, Nyabizan, Ebolowa, Akom II, Ambam, Lolodorf and Campo in the South region; - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu- Awa, Ako, Audu, Munkep, Ako, Bali, Santa, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Nkambe, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong, Benakuma, Wum, Nwa Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the and Audu in the North West region; same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: NOCC, August 2021)

Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Benakuma, recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021, for the dekad Esu, Nwa, Bamenda, Bali, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Wum and Audu in the North West from 1st to 10th August 2021, we expect maximum temperatures: region; st th st th - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 July - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 July 2021 in Bangangte, 2021 in Mindif, Maroua, Yagoua, Kaele, Mora, Maga, Mokolo, Foumbot, Bare-Bakem, Bafoussam, Bamendjing, Dschang, Magba, Bafang, Bazou, Kousseri, Waza, Bogo and Makary in the Far North region; Mbouda, Tonga, Makam and Foumban in the West region.

- around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Garoua, Lagdo, Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Tchollire, Touboro, Pitoa and Dembo; below the mean in Guider and Poli in the North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Yimbere, Ngaoundal and Mbakaou, Mbe, Banyo; below the mean in Tibati, Kognoli, Nassarao, Tignere, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Dimako, Mindourou, Belabo, Ngoyla, Moloundou, Kongolo, Doume, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua, Garoua-Boulai and Betare-Oya in the East region; (a) (b) - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Ngoro, Deuk, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Mbandjock, Messondo, Nkoteng, Bafia, Eseka, Obala, Ngambe Tikar and Yaounde; above the mean in Mbalmayo in the Centre region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Zoetele, Djoum, Nyabizan, Minkoumou, Ebolowa, Lolodorf, Ambam, Akom II and Sangmelima; below the mean in Kribi and Campo in the South region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Bamusso, Ekok, Eyumojock, Nguti, Ekang, Dikome Balue, Fontem, Mamfe, Idenau, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Mundemba and Kumba in the South-West region; st th - around the mean recorded from 21 to 30 July 2021 in Loum, Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures for the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021 (b) Yabassi and Mbanga, Melong, Nkongsamba, Pouma, Ngambe, compared to those recorded for the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 (a).

Yingui, Ndom, Nyanon, Ndokama, Baptek and Manjo; above the Source: NOCC, August 2021

mean in Dizangue, Douala, Mouanko and Edea in the Littoral 5 region;

Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in maximum temperatures compared to their historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. They include: - Tibati, Betare Gongon and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region;

- Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Obala, Eseka, Nanga Eboko, Bafia, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Nanga Eboko, Monatele, Nkoteng,

Ngoro and Yoko in the Centre region; - Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Lomie, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Koso, Moloundou, Mbalam and Belabo in the East region; - Ambam, Djoum, Kribi, Sangmelima and Zoetele, in the South region; - Loum, Edea, Douala, Manjo and Mouanko in the Littoral region.

b) For Minimum Temperatures - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Esu, Santa, Bamenda and Ndop; Based on the historical mean of minimum temperatures recorded below the historical mean in Furawa; around the historical mean in Audu, Wum, Munkep, Bali, from 1979 to 2018, notably 22.2°C in the Far North region; 22°C Kumbo, Benakuma, Ako and Nwa in the North West region; in the North region; 19.8°C in the Adamawa region; 19.4°C in the - below the historical mean recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba; around the historical Centre region; 20°C in the South region; 19.8°C in the East mean in Dikome Balue, Bamusso, Bakogo, Idenau, Nguti, Dikome Bafaw, Mamfe, Ekang, region; 16.6°C in the West 16.2°C in the North West region; Eyumojock, Tiko, Limbe, Buea and Kumba in the South West region; 20.1°C in the South West region and 20°C in the Littoral region, - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Baptek; for the dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, we expect minimum around the historical mean in Mouanko, Douala, Edea, Loum Ndokama, Mbanga, Yabassi, temperatures: Dizangue, Manjo, Penja and Nkongsamba in the Littoral region.

- below the historical mean recorded during the same period from

1979 to 2018 in Mokolo and Mora; around the historical mean in Gamboura, Mindif, Waza, Makary, Kousseri, Maroua, Kaele, Maga and Yagoua in the Far North region; - around the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Pitoa, Dembo, Lagdo, Garoua, Rey Bouba, Guider and Tchollire; below the historical mean in Poli and Touboro in the North region; - below the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Dota, Ngaoundere, Tignere and Meiganga; above the historical mean in Ngaoundal, Tibati, Yimbere, Banyo and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from (a) (b) 1979 to 2018 in Monatele, Ayos, Eseka, Yoko, Nkoteng, Bafia, Mbalmayo, Ngambe Tikar, Obala, Akonolinga and Yaounde in the Centre region; - above the historical mean recorded during this period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, Abong-Mbang, Bertoua, Belabo, Lomie, Batouri and Moloundou, Ngoyla and Kozo; below the historical mean in Garoua-Boulai; around the historical mean in Betare’ Oya and Mambele in the East region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Campo, Sangmelima, Djoum, Zoetele and Ebolowa; below the historical mean in Lolodorf; Nyabizan and Akom II; around the historical mean in Kribi and Ambam in the South region; - above the historical mean recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Makam and Foumbot; around the historical mean in Figure 4: Variation in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (1-10 August 2021) (b) compared to Tonga, Foumban, Koutaba Dschang, Bafoussam, Bafang, Mbouda, historical averages from 1979 to 2018 (a). Source: NOCC, August 2021 Bamendjing, Bangangte and Bazou in the West region; 7

Based on the difference between the average minimum - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Bakogo, Dikombe Bafaw, Ekok, st th temperatures recorded during the dekad from 21 to 30 July Ekang Tiko, Muyuka, Idenau, Bamusso, Mundemba, Mamfe, Buea, Kumba, Fontem and st th 2021, for the dekad from 1 to 10 August 2021, we expect Nguti in the South West region. minimum temperatures: - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Mora, Bogo, Yagoua, Makary, Kaele, Mindif, Maga, Kousseri, Maroua, Waza, Gamboura and Mokolo in the Far North region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Dembo, Garoua, Pitoa, Tchollire, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Poli, Touboro and Guider in the North region; - below the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Dota, Ngaou Mbol, Mbakaou, Banyo, Tibati, Banyo, Yimbere, Meiganga and Ngaoundere in the Adamawa region; - around the mean recorded during the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Ngambe Tikar, Nanga Eboko, Mbandjock, Ngoro, Akonolinga, Obala, Nkoteng, Monatele, Yoko, Bafia, Eseka, Yaounde and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; (a) (b) - around the mean recorded during the period from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Moloundou, Abong-Mbang, Betare-Oya, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Lomie, Yokadouma, Doume, Mindourou, Belabo, Batouri, Garoua- Boulai and Mambele in the East region; - around the mean recorded during the period from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Djoum, Nyabizan, Ebolowa, Ambam, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Sangmelima, Zoetele and Lolodorf in the South region; - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Dschang, Bazou, Bangangte, Bamendjing, Magba, Bafoussam, Bafang, Makam Mbouda, Tonga, Foumban and Foumbot in the West region; - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Ndop, Bamenda, Benakuma, Nwa, Munkep, Ako, Furu Awa, Wum, Nwa and Audu in the North West region; - around the mean recorded from 21st to 30th July 2021 in Penja, Ndokama, Edea, Dizangue, Loum, Melong, Manjo, Nkongsamba, Yabassi, Mouanko, Edea, Douala and Baptek in the Littoral region; Figure 4: Variations in minimum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th July 2021 (a). Source: NOCC, August 2021

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th August 2021, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to their historical values for the same period from

1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include: -Mokolo and Mora in the Far North region;

- Poli and Touboro in the North region; - Esu and Ako in the North West region; - Mundemba in the South West region.

IV. Risks and potential impacts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector: A high risk of recording cases of destruction and degradation of certain crops in the A high risk of: field in many localities in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, especially in the Far North - falling of electricity transportation poles due to heavy rains accompanied by region, due to heavy rains. strong winds in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, (Waza, Makary, Kousseri etc.); -contamination of soil water, surface water and water catchment points by b) In the health sector: polluted runoffs in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, the monomodal rain forest zone, A high risk of recording cases of: the Guinean high savannah zone and the Highlands zone. - water-borne diseases (typhoid, yeast, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to the poor quality of drinking water, in the five agro-ecological zones; e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: - cholera in some settlements of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Maroua, Mokolo, Maga, A high risk of recording numerous cases of: Mora, Garoua, Pitoa, etc.), and the Guinean High Savannah zone, due to the - morning fog leading to traffic accidents in many localities in the Centre, contamination of drinking water by polluted run-off water; South and East Regions (bimodal rain forest zone), West and north-west - respiratory diseases (flu epidemic, coughs, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), (Highlands zone) and South West (monomodal rain forest zone); in the Monomodal Rainforest Zone and the Highlands Zone, due to cold and - floods in some localities of the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Waza, Makary, humidity; Kousseri etc.), the Monomodal Rain Forest zone (Douala, Nkongsamba etc. - general pathologies for people suffering from hypertension, diabetes, obesity as - landslides in some localities in the North West and West regions (Highlands well as women in menopause, due to the heat at night in some localities of the five Zone), the Littoral and South West, due to waterlogging from rain recorded

Agro ecological zones; from the beginning of the rainy season. - multiplication of malaria-causing mosquitoes in the five agro-ecological zones. f) In the public works sector: c) For the livestock sector A high risk of recording cases of: A high risk of recording; - degradation of roads in the Highlands zone (West and North-West regions), - numerous cases of epizootics due to the cold weather during the night in some the monomodal rainforest zone (Littoral and South-West), and the Sudano- localities of the West Region (Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda and Bafang), Sahelian zone, especially in the Far-North Region, due to heavy rainfall;

North West Region (Bali, Ndop, Fundong, Bamenda and Santa); - destruction of bridges and other crossing structures in some localities of the - cases of loss of livestock by lightning due to stormy rains accompanied by heavy Sudano-Sahelian zone due to heavy and intensive rainfall. thunder in the Guinean high savannah zone; - cases of loss of livestock through drowning in some localities in the Sudano- Sahelian zone.

st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 21 to 30 July 2021

High Guinean Agro Ecological Zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rain forest High plateau Mono-modal Rain Forest Savannah Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West North West South West Littoral Minimum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 22,9 23 20 19,5 19 20,4 16 16,1 20 19,8

Trend forecasts Success rates of Forecasts (%) 86,2 84,1 85 83 84 85,1 83 85 86 84,3 Maximum temperatures Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 32,43 31 28,6 27,18 27 27,11 24,6 25,38 25,82 25 Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success rates (%) 80,4 83,1 85 82 85,2 83,3 86,8 85,3 84 85,1 Precipitation Historic mean from 1979 to 0-60 61-81 82-101 102-121 122-200 201-210 211-240 241-260 261-300 301-350 2018(mm) Trend forecasts ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 100 100 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈ ; = Reduction; = Increase

VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period:

In the Agriculture sector, to: ▪ Plan agricultural activities, notably the sowing phase in the Guinean High Savannah Zone, and maintenance in the south regions of the country with reference to the agricultural calendar produced by NOCC for the 2021 Agricultural season.

In the health sector, continue to ▪ raise public awareness on the need to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (washing food items, filtering drinking water and cooking food before consumption in households, use of latrines, etc.); ▪ avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings; ▪ dress warmly to protect yourself from cold; ▪ encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; ▪ strengthen community health surveillance to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of diseases (cholera) in order to take care of them. ▪ carry out vaccination campaigns against various epidemics and pandemics.

In the water and energy sector, to continue: ▪ regular sampling, analysis and treatment of drinking water at catchment points and water supply points before distribution to households; ▪ regular use of basic techniques (filtering, boiling, etc.) to make drinking water potable at household level; ▪ the replacement of defective (wooden) electricity transportation poles.

For more information, contact, www.onacc.cm P.O. Box: 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237) 222-209-504/222-209-500 e-mail: [email protected]