Risks and Vulnerabilities Assessment in All Municipalities

Risks and Vulnerabilities Assessment

in all municipalities

Action C1

LIFE ADAPTATE LIFE16 CCA/ES/000049

The Working Group in the Municipality of Smiltene is formed by:

Name Position

Head of Planning and Ieva Dille Development Department Andris Lapiņš Deputy Executive director Andris Jaunpetroviņs Technical project manager Marita Mņze Public Relation specialist Inga Kovala Public Relation specialist Head of economy activity Ilze Sausņ Department Liene Brolņte Construction Board Manager Laima ņ boltiņa Rural support specialist Head of Launkalnes parish Mņris Lazdiņš administration Head of Blomes parish Gaidis Bogdanovs administration

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Stakeholders

Smiltene Municipality Smiltene Municipality State fire and rescue service of Latvia

State Emergency Medical Service

State Ltd "Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre"

Latvian Association of Local and Regional Governments

Smiltene Municipality Police

Smiltene Social Service

The State Environmental Service of the Republic of Latvia

Smiltene Construction Board

Vidzeme Planning Region

A non-governmental organization

Smiltene Red Cross hospital

Local farmers, business owners Smiltene district Tourist Information Centre Smiltene Municipality company "Smiltenes NKUP", Ltd

Local media Citizens – people who live and work in Smiltene municipality Valmiera Regional Environmental Board State Forest Service “Austrumvidzemes forestry” “ZAOO” Ltd

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Different types of stakeholders that must be involved in the Adaptation Plan development have been identified. The Stakeholder List in the Municipality of Smiltene is formed by:

Name Organization Sector Competences

To help understand how big is the fire risks at Smiltene Smiltene municipality. Municipality Explaining the national Renņrs State fire and regulatory framework Fire safety Žeņezkins rescue service for civil protection and of Latvia advising on the implementation of preventive measures in the field of civil protection. Establishment of plans, Smiltene Municipal Gints Kukainis procedures and municipality sector policies. Information about State Ltd historical situation with "Latvian water, rivers and Environment, Environmental environment, - Geology and sector hydrological and Meteorology meteorological Centre" observations. Forecasts. Smiltene Helping in identifying Normunds Municipality Safety safety problems Liepa Police caused by climate

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issues. Participate in the development of a population warning system, provision of civil protection measures, rescue work, assistance to victims. Information on health issues, caused by Smiltene Red Didzis Lņkins Health sector climate change. Cross hospital Planning of actions for public health hazards. Participate in the evaluation of the existing spatial plan, land use and building Smiltene Infrastracture, regulations in relation Liene Brolņte Construction buildings to construction in Board flood territories, drafting amendments and clarifying municipal regulations. Information public about activities, Jņnis ņ dris Smiltene Media Adaption plan Evita ņ dre Television development, the event of disasters etc. Organize A non- environmental actions, - governmental Social do studies on socio- organization environmental issues

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and works on sustainable development and lifestyles. Planning, coordination and cooperation Vidzeme Planning between municipalities - Planning sector and different Region governmental institutions. Latvian Promote cooperation Association of between Latvian Cooperation - Local and authorities and their sector Regional associations and Governments unions. Smiltene municipality Maintain the city's company Water and Aigars Vņvuliņš rainwater drainage "Smiltenes sewerage system NKUP", Ltd

Implement the Valmiera national environmental Regional Environmental protection policy in 21 - Environmental sector region, also in Smiltene Board Municipality

Responsible for State Forest pursuing a unified - Forestry Service forest policy in all the Latvia`s forests,

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controlling observance of the provisions of statutory acts, and implementing support programmes, in the long term aimed at ensuring sustainable forest management.

Life Adaptate covers the elaboration of the adaptation plan and the implementation of the first adaptation measure. The human resources for the adaptation process will be personal from Smiltene Municipality. Measures will be financed from Smiltene Municipal budget.

Internal communication will be organised by emails, regular face to face meetings, trainings, newsletters, phone calls.

External communication with other stakeholders will be organised using different channels, depending on needed feedback. Web page of municipality will be used for communication with public, face to face meetings will be organised to gain quality discussion and feedback from local stakeholders, like, state medical service, fire service etc.

For informing the general public local media ( local newspapers, municipal webpage, radio), because it is a great influence in supporting the communication of adaption plan objectives, activities and results to a bigger number citizens that cannot be reached by, for example, online

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channels. Press release will be prepared to announce public events, meetings.

Geographic description:

“The Smiltene municipality has a very favourable geographical location; it is situated in the north-east part of Latvia, 132 km from Riga, the capital of Latvia, and 40 km from the border with Estonia; it borders with municipalities of Strenņi, Valka, Ape, Gulbene, Rauna and Beverņna. The Smiltene municipalities is crossed by the following main motorways: the highway (A2) Riga – Veclaicene – St. Petersburg (Russia) and the motorways of the 1st category Valmiera – Smiltene, Smiltene – Valka, Smiltene - Gulbene, Smiltene - Strenņi; thanks to the road network, other populated areas can be easily reached as well. 1 The biggest rivers at territory of municipality are Abuls, Palsa, Nigra, Rauza and Vija. The biggest lakes are Lizdole, Niedrņjs, Spicieris. Smiltene municipality is one of the most wooded municipalities of Latvia - 54% of the total territory occupies forest land, while agricultural land occupies 38%.2 Smiltene municipality is made of Smiltene town and 8 parishes – Bilska, Blome, Branti, Grundzņle, Laukalne, Palsmane, Smiltene and Variņi parishes.

Location maps:

1 http://www.smiltene.lv/information_smiltene_region 2 Real Estate Department data for 2014

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Fig.2.1. Location of Smiltene municipality

Fig.2.2. Territorial map of Smiltene municipality

• Buildings: age, main characteristics, location: Municipality of Smiltene has 12 429 buildings (Data of the Cadastre Information System as on 01.01.2016.) 3221 of them are located in the city of Smiltene, but the rest are located in rural areas (see table 2.1.). The majority of residents live in apartments - the most common type of housing in Smiltene is a separate apartment, but almost 2 times less in the city there are individual houses, respectively 1294 apartments and 775 private houses. 1.5% of the total living space are owned by municipality.

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Housing stock of Smiltene town is 3230 m2, and privately owned 203 153 m2 of living space. The size of the dwellings in Smiltene is different, however, the most in the town is the dwelling with 2 rooms (860), then the dwellings with 3 rooms (591) and one-room dwellings (297). According to the Smiltene Region Development Program for 2012-2018, most of the living spaces is outworn and does not meet the nowadays requirements of living standards. In addition, construction of new buildings accounts for only 1/6 of the total number of construction applications in the Smiltene region. The housing stock at the parishes owned by municipality is proportionally bigger. However, the municipal and privately-owned housing stock in the parishes is outworn more and is in unsatisfactory conditions.

Number of buildings Territory (constructions) Bilska rural territory 1 591 Blome rural territory 1 143 Branti rural territory 715

Grundzāle rural territory 1 336

Smiltene municipality Launkalne rural territory 1 279

Palsmane rural territory 1 093

Smiltene rural territory 1 075

Variāi rural territory 976 City of Smiltene 3 221 TOTAL 12 429 Table 2.1. Number of buildings and their location in the municipality of Smiltene

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3 • Existing plans: The main planning documents are “Sustainable development strategy for Smiltene County 2013-2037”, “Territorial plan of Smiltene municipality”, “Smiltene Municipality Development Programme for 2012- 2018”, “Civil protection plan of Smiltene Municipality”.

• Municipal land uses: Territory of Smiltene municipality is used for residential buildings, public buildings, industrial buildings and processes, transport infrastructure, cemeteries, greeneries and parks, gardens but there are tourism and recreation areas, water territories (lake, pond, etc.) and depleted zones too. In 2016, 2921ha or 8,7% of agricultural land were not-cultivated. 4,8% of agricultural land were overgrown.4

• Type of vehicles: At Smiltene municipality all kind of transport are used - public transport (buses) and private transport (cars, bicycles, motorcycles etc.) are used in Smiltene municipality. 6 Data of registered vehicles in Smiltene municipality (all, private and municipal) about last 5 years is shown in table 2.2.

Type/date 01.01.2018 01.01.2017 01.01.2016 01.01.2015 01.01.2014 Cars 5050 4933 5191 5002 4849 Trucks 704 639 635 658 603 Bus 23 23 23 30 32 Motorcycles 170 and tricycles 153 170 146 589

3 http://www.vzd.gov.lv/files/buvju_parskats_2016_eng.pdf 4 http://www.smiltene.lv/uploads/uploads/Parskats_2016g_gala.pdf

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Trailers and 667 semi-trailers 647 645 616 133 Quadricycles 6 7 6 8 7 Moped 303 284 268 262 252 Sum 6923 6686 6938 6722 6465 Data: Latvian road safety directorate

As table 2.2. shows in 2018 in Smiltene municipality 75% of all registered vehicles is cars, 9% is trucks and only 1 % is buses. Although this data does not show the intensity of traffic, or transit vehicles, as Smiltene is not a big municipality, traffic is not considered an urgent problem, and amount of transport in municipality is adequate for existing infrastructure. The most urgent issue is road safety and quality. Also cycling infrastructure is available only at Smiltene Town.

• Natural resources:

In Smiltene, the most important natural resources are agricultural and forest areas. Forest areas are sufficient to provide agricultural production and construction with timber, and not only for the small but also for the medium and large forestry and woodworking companies. An average of 3.21 ha of forest land per inhabitant in Smiltene county (average 1.25 ha in Latvia). The largest forests masses extend in the northern, middle and southern parts of the municipality, most forests are in Launkalne civil parish - 16.77% of the municipality. Regionally significant areas of agricultural land are located at Smiltene and Variņi parishes. Agriculture are prioritized in the regional planning documents.

Abula River and mirrors surfaces of lakes, slopes and relatively small distance between lakes are very suitable environment for the development of the scenic landscapes. Intact nature areas and biodiversity is resources that, if adjusted, can be used to increase economic potential of rural areas

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and town, promote economic activity, and improve the quality of life of the population. In Smiltene, as well as in Latvia, the most common are the minerals necessary for the construction materials. Raw material resources are sufficient to fully ensure not only the needs of the internal market but also to export part of the raw material or products produced from them. At extraction intensity of 2010 the stock of investigated and estimated minerals in Smiltene region will be enough at least for 200 years.

• Green spaces: extension, distribution, maintenance, uses: Green spaces occupy the half of the territory of Smiltene municipality. 53,6 ha are areas that need regular maintenance, 238 ha are occupied with forest, 9,9 ha are meadows, 30,7 ha are occupied with parks.5 • Air quality, level of air pollution:

6 In 2012 municipality of Smiltene emitted 0.0161 Gg NO2 emissions. Air quality is not considered as a problem in Smiltene municipality, as the traffic, industry and population density is low. During the 20th century the average air temperature in Latvia has risen by 1 degree. This increase is even more apparent in the years of the 21st century, which have already passed. During the past 100 years, there have been fluctuations in annual rainfall, which tended to rise from the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, for example, there were critical situation with heavy rains in period of August-September, in 2017.

The Waste management in Smiltene region is determined by the regulations of the Smiltene region council dated December 29, 2011. 19/11

6http://www.smiltene.lv/uploads/uploads/Smiltenes%20novada%20dome/Attistib as_Planosana/Paskaidrojuma_raksts_2012/Paskaidrojuma_raksts_Smiltene_TP.pdf 6http://mvd.riga.lv/uploads/videgaiss/dok/Petijums_NO2%20zonejums%20Rigas% 20pilsetai%202014.pdf

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"Waste Management Regulations in Smiltene Region". The regulations state determine that all producers of waste- all individual and legal persons whose activities produce waste, are obliged to participate in the municipal waste management system by concluding a contract for the export of municipal waste. The municipality has established waste management procedures, including the separate collection and sorting of waste, in order to protect human health, create an environmentally sound environment in Smiltene and reduce the formation of illegal landfills. "ZAAO" Ltd. is a company founded by Vidzeme municipalities, which is formed by 26 municipalities, including Smiltene municipality. The company provides high- quality waste management services in the North Vidzeme region, which includes the collection, sorting, transportation, treatment and disposal in an environmentally friendly manner, as well as informing and educating the public. In 2017 amount of collected municipal waste (unsorted) was 2119.54 tons. Created amount of non-hazardous waste in municipality was 3935tons of waste (this include industrial waste utilized by operators out of the Smiltene municipality).

Smiltene municipality company "Smiltenes NKUP", Ltd is responsible in collecting, purifying and supplying drinking water to consumers - private houses, apartment houses, private companies and manufacturing companies. The water is taken from five wells with a depth of 150 to 200 meters. The water pumps from the well pump water to the iron removal station and water is purfied in flow filtration. The purified water is stored in tanks from where the water is fed by pumps in the city water pipe system. The total length of the built-in street water supply system is 8.2 km. In recent years, street water supply networks have been expanded and a new water iron removal station has been built. The Smiltene agglomeration has a water pipe of almost 30 km long.

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Also Smiltene municipality company "Smiltenes NKUP" is responsible for the collection and treatment of domestic sewage. Purified waste water is discharged into open water reservoirs. Sewage effluent is collected and discharged into the purification plant BIO NAI "Abuls", located in Brutuņi Smiltenes parish. Sewage wastewater is collected from private homes, apartment houses, private companies and manufacturing companies. The total length of the sewage system is about 50 km, the total length of the drainage system is 3 km (domestic sewage is pumped with a pump).

Smiltene municipality company “Smiltene NKUP” maintain the city's rainwater drainage system - a closed rainwater drainage system with rainwater gulings on streets and squares, open ledges at the edges of streets and built street streams.

In order to analyse the historical events that the municipality has suffered and its resilience to climate change and natural hazards, available information on these topics have been compiled:

Title Author Year Description

State limited Liability Company "Latvian Analysis tool of Environment, Geology 2017 climate change and Meteorology Centre"

State limited Liability 2017 CLIMATE CHANGE Company "Latvian

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SCENARIOS FOR Environment, Geology and Meteorology LATVIA Centre"

Report summary

CLIMATE CHANGE State limited Liability SCENARIOS FOR Company "Latvian Environment, Geology 2017 LATVIA and Meteorology

Report Centre"

Risk and vulnerability assessment and identification of adaptation measures “BALTKONSULTS” Ltd 2016 in the field of landscape planning and tourism.

Risk and vulnerability assessment and “Estonian, Latvian identification of &Lithuanian 2016 adaptation measures Environment” Ltd in the field of health and well-being.

Risk and vulnerability assessment and “Estonian, Latvian identification of &Lithuanian 2016 adaptation measures Environment” Ltd in the field of biodiversity and

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ecosystem services.

Risk and vulnerability assessment and identification of Latvian State Forest adaptation measures Research Institute 2016 in the field of "Silava" agriculture and forestry.

Risk and vulnerability assessment and identification of "Center of processes adaptation measures analysis and research" 2017 in the field of civil Ltd protection and emergency assistance.

Risk and vulnerability assessment and identification of adaptation measures Society “Zaņņ biedrņba” 2017 in the field of construction and infrastructure planning.

Impact of climate Faculty of Geography change on and Earth Sciences, 2016 biodiversity University of Latvia

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In order to make decisions on adaptation policies, it is paramount to gather data on key changes affecting climate variables and elements (e.g. rising sea levels). After that, it is necessary to analyse the potential consequences of this type of scenarios on existing activities in a specific territory or system.

Rainfall (mm) ✓ (Annual total precipitation)

Number of rainy days (Number of days in the ✓ year when the daily precipitation is above 10mm) Duration of dry periods 

Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) 

Maximum temperature ✓

Minimum temperature ✓

Number of warm days ✓ (Number of days when temperature is above +25°C) Number of warm nights

(Number of nights when minimal temperature is above ✓ +20°C) Number of freezing days

(Number of days per year when the maximum air ✓ temperature is below 0°C) Heat waves duration ✓

Heating degree days 

Cooling degree days 

Forest fires 

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Other (Maximum amount of precipitation in 1 day, ✓ observed during the year)

Other (Number of days in the year when the daily ✓ precipitation is above 10mm)

Other (Average air temperature (°C)) ✓

The Fifth Report establishes four emission scenarios, which are the so- called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 y RCP8.5. These pathways are known for their total radiative forcing (energy reaching the Earth) in the year 2100, ranging from 2.6 to 8.5 watts/m2. Given that RCP8.5 is the less optimistic scenario and is also used to develop strategic planning documents of Latvia, we decided to work with this Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 in order to ensure the adaptation to climate change.

Information on climate scenarios for Latvia is available at http://www2.meteo.lv/klimatariks/. This online tool provides forecasts for the main weather stations in Latvia. To obtain Smiltene information data from Priekuņi meteorological station is used, as the station is the closest and most relevant one for Smiltene situation. Climate scenarios are referred to Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, defined by the IPCC. The available period is 2011 – 2100. This period is divided into three subperiods in the online tool: 2011 – 2040; 2041 – 2070; 2071 – 2100.

The information obtained in the previous steps is compiled in the following table:

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Indicator 2016 Projection 2100 (average)

min average max Annual total precipitation (mm) 840 762 Maximum amount of 1 day precipitation 62.6 39 observed during the year (mm) Number of days in the year when the daily 20 21 precipitation is above 10mm (day) Duration of heat wave (days) 12 139 Average air temperature (°C) 6.7 -8.6 10.9 28.2 Max. air temperature (°C) 10.2 -6 14.6 34.9 Minimum air temperature (°C) 3.1 -11.4 7.4 23.3 Number of summer days (above +25°C) (days) 18 69 Number of tropical nights (days) 1 13 Number of days per year when the maximum air 47 22 temperature is below 0°C

For climate change hazards which apply to the municipality, include the following information:

Choose one of the following options:

Current Expected Expected Climate Hazard hazard change in change in Timeframe risk level intensity frequency Extreme heat Moderate Increase Increase Long term Extreme cold Low Increase Increase Long term Extreme Moderate Increase Increase Medium term precipitation Floods Moderate Increase Increase Short term Droughts Low Increase No change Long term Storms Low Increase Increase Medium term Forest Fires Moderate Increase Increase Medium term

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In order to identify the climate hazards that will affect the municipality the most, they have been categorized following the next punctuation:

Current hazard Expected change Expected change Timeframe (T) risk level (HRL) in intensity (CI) in frequency (CF) 1- Low 1- Decrease 1- Decrease 1- Long term 2- Moderate 2- No change 2- No change 2- Medium term 3- High 3- Increase 3- Increase 3- Short term 4- Current

Therefore, the climate hazards with greater consequences on the municipality are presented in the following picture:

Change the values according to your results. If any of the climate hazards does not apply to your municipality, delete it.

CLIMATE HAZARDS IN SMILTENE MUNICIPALITY

Current hazard risk level Expected change in intensity Expected change in frequency Timeframe

EXTREME HEAT 1 3 3 1

EXTREME COLD 1 3 3 1

EXTREME PRECIPITATION 2 3 3 2

FLOODS 2 3 3 3

DROUGHTS 1 3 2 1

STORMS 1 3 3 2

FOREST FIRES 2 3 3 2

Vulnerabilities can be understood as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,

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including climate variability and extremes. There are two main groups of vulnerabilities:

Describe the socio-economic vulnerabilities of your territory (e.g. population composition, population density, economic situation) as well as the factors that tend to increase them.

Some examples of vulnerabilities are:

Vulnerability Description

The expected decrease in population will decrease the municipal income from taxes, decreasing available resources for facing climate change risks. A declining population may indicate existing hardships (and Population decrease vulnerabilities), and limited adaptive capacity due to constrained resources. Communities already experiencing economic and demographic stress are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change

Proportion of elder people are growing, % elderly population increasing demand for healthcare and social support.

Inhabitants who live near lakes, rivers and in low % population living in risky areas areas.

Countryside households are often scattered, % of areas not accessible for connecting infrastructure poor, which makes services rescue and help difficult in case of natural disaster.

Economic activity sensitive to Forestry, tourism can face a lot of issues caused

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CC by climate change. Also changing temperatures, floods and precipitations have an impact on agriculture,

Unemployment rate can make community Unemployment rate vulnerable because of limited financial resources

to respond to change

Describe the main physical and environmental vulnerabilities of your territory (e.g. geographical location, topography, spatial planning, physical conditions) as well as the factors that tend to increase them.

Some examples are:

Vulnerability Description

There is a high risk of damaged roads and Transport network in risky areas bridges in case of disasters

Old buildings are often in bad conditions, % Old buildings vulnerable in case of storms, extreme heat and flood.

The most vulnerable in case of flood is drinking Water pollution water system, especially in low density areas without centralised water supply.

More than half of Smiltene municipality territory Presence of forest is covered by forests. Dry periods at summer is causing high risk of forest fires.

Countryside households are often scattered, Difficulty to access risky areas connecting infrastructure poor, which makes (emergencies) rescue and help difficult in case of natural disaster

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Once all municipal’s vulnerabilities have been defined, it is necessary to evaluate them according to two parameters:

Exposure: Information about location and properties of local relevant assets. This gives as result an asset map which can be georeferenced by the Google Earth platform. Other information about city growing trends is also desired.

Sensitivity: In the context of a risk assessment, the term sensitivity refers to the degree to which a system (asset) is affected by, or responsive to a hazard. In other words, sensitivity captures the potential of a system to be impacted by a hazard. Sometimes sensitivity is determined by the criticality of the service that the system provides.

Adaptive capacity: The capacity for adaptation will be determined by available technical and scientific knowledge, as well as by the financial capacity to undertake adaptation actions.

The range of values are:

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

1- Very low 1- Very low 5- Very low Assets’ exposure level to Vulnerability’s effects The municipality's climate change is very low, won’t cause any effect in potential in terms of no hazards can affect the the municipality adaptive capacity is very assets low, there are high difficulties to implement adaptation measures

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2- Low 2- Low 4- Low Assets’ exposure level to Vulnerability’s effects will The municipality's climate change is low, be observed in the long potential in terms of some hazard can slightly term adaptive capacity is low, affect the assets but some actions can be implemented

3- Medium 3- Medium 3- Medium Assets are exposed to Vulnerability’s effects will The municipality has the climate change by mean of be observed in the medium potential to mitigate the one or more hazards term effects of climate change, but no action has been taken.

5- Very high 5- Very high 1- Very high Assets are very highly Vulnerability’s effects are The municipality has exposed to climate change already visible. resources and actions have by mean of one or more been taken to reduce the hazards impact.

The results obtained in this vulnerability assessment are presented in the following chart:

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VULNERABILITIES IN SMILTENE MUNICIPALITY

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

DIFFICULTY TO ACCESS RISKY AREAS 1 2 4 PRESENCE OF FOREST 5 4 3 WATER POLLUTION 3 2 2 % OLD BUILDINGS 4 3 4 BUILDINGS IN RISKY AREAS 4 3 3 TRANSPORT NETWORK IN RISKY AREAS 5 3 3 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4 4 3 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SENSITIVE TO CC 5 5 3 % POPULATION WITH SPECIAL NEEDS 3 3 3 % OF AREAS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR SERVICES 3 4 3 % POPULATION LIVING IN RISKY AREAS 5 3 3 % ELDERLY POPULATION 2 2 4

The municipality of Smiltene have identified the sectors that will be affected (positively or negatively) by climate change. Those sectors are: (Justify through hazards and vulnerability assess)

Sector How is Climate Change going to affect it?

Transport Risks of heavy precipitation and flooding can cause heavy road damages. Also increasingly unstable weather during winter period (temperature changes below and above zero degrees in one day) is causing decrease in road durability. Energy Energy production has to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by

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increasing energy efficiency, production efficiency, switching to RES. Water Water pollution is important environmental threat, especially drinking water supply systems. In case of disasters, like, floods it is possible that contaminants from sewage system is polluting drinking water. Land Use Planning Land use will have to be planned in a way to provide a sustainable environment to the society, without losing biodiversity, scenic and recreational values. Agriculture & Forestry Agriculture is already facing risks of drought in summer, extreme precipitation all year, frost with no snow cover in winter, that causes significantly reduced yield. Forestry already face reduced freezing period in winter, that causes reduced time for forestry, also forest fires are increasing at summer periods. Environment & Changes in temperature regime, changed vegetation periods, longer Biodiversity droughts in summer, changing temperatures in winter is already causing changes in local ecosystems. Health Population in whole Latvia is getting older, so the communities are more vulnerable to hot summer periods, cold winters, and generally unstable weather conditions. Civil Protection and As the extreme weather events are happening more often and Emergency causing more serious damage, civil protection and emergency services should reconsider their strategies and procedures. Tourism Longer and hotter summer period has a positive effect on tourism.

For all sectors identified in 6.1, prioritising risks and vulnerabilities that obtained a major score, different impacts have been defined.

Associate at least three vulnerabilities to each climate change risk in order to define the impacts. For example:

Sector Climate risk Vulnerability Expected impact

Transport Extreme Transport network Road quality can precipitation in risky areas; significantly decrease Floods because of extreme Storms weather events and

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Extreme heat changing temperatures. Energy Extreme cold Buildings in risky Damages caused by Extreme heat areas; storms is huge risk for Storms % Old buildings; electricity supply. Population Especially in scattered decrease; areas where single Unemployment buildings are far from rate. each other electricity lines can be damaged by falling trees etc. And recovery will take a lot more time comparing to city infrastructure. Water Extreme cold Water pollution; Eutrophication. New Extreme heat % Old buildings; research indicates that Floods Population the symptoms of Drought decrease. eutrophication in lakes will be made worse by climate change. It disrupts natural ecological processes in freshwater and can be harmful to animals and humans. Land Use Storms Transport network Planning Extreme heat in risky areas; Forest fires Population Draught decrease Agriculture & Extreme Presence of forest; Agriculture is already Forestry precipitation Economic activity facing issues, that Floods sensitive to CC; causes significantly Droughts reduced yield. Forestry

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Forest fire already face reduced freezing period in winter, that causes reduced time for forestry, also forest fires are increasing at summer periods. Environment & Extreme cold Presence of Ecosystems and Biodiversity Extreme heat affected rivers; biodiversity can be Extreme forced to fluctuate precipitation along with the regional Floods climate, and that could Forest fires harm many species. Health Extreme heat Unemployment As community get Storms rate; older, demand for Floods % population with health care is special needs; increasing. Also % elderly population;

Civil Protection Storms, Population and Emergency Floods decrease; % elderly population; Tourism Extreme heat Economic activity Longer summer (longer, hotter sensitive to CC periods can increase summer period) tourism activities

In order to valuate expected impacts according to their effect on the municipality, the following score table have been proposed:

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Likelihood of Expected Impact Level Timeframe Occurrence 1- Unlikely 1- Low 1- Long term 2- Possible 2- Moderate 2- Medium term 3- Likely 3- High 3- Short term 4- Current

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN SMILTENE

Likelyhood of occurrance Expected impact level Timeframe

CHANGE OF ENVIRONMENTAL 1 1 2

INCREASED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 1 1 2

INCREASED TOURISM ACTIVITIES 2 2 2

EUTROPHICATION 2 2 2

CHANGE OF BIODIVERSITY 2 2 1

INCREASED DEMAND FOR HEALTHCARE 2 2 1

REDUCED YIELD FROM FORESTRY 2 2 1

REDUCED YIELD FROM AGRICULTURE 3 2 1

ELECTRICITY SUPPLY RISK 2 2 3

LOWER ROAD QUALITY 3 2 2

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LIFE ADAPTATE LIFE16 CCA/ES/000049

The Working Group in the Municipality of Alfandega da Fé is formed by:

Name Position

Berta Nunes Mayor Carina Teixeira Technician Carla Vítor Financial manager

Virginia Rodrigues Technician

Rui Gonçalves Technician

Sofia Martins External advisor Flávia Duarte External advisor Inês Silva External advisor

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The different types of stakeholders to be involved in the Adaptation Plan development have been identified. The Stakeholder List in the Municipality of Alfândega da Fé is formed by:

Name Organization Sector Competences

Ensure proximity services to the Junta de population, including Vitor Saro Freguesia Local authority planning, cerejães management and investment actions. Ensure proximity União de services to the Freguesias de Ana Maria population, including Parada e Local authority Ribeiro Pereira planning, Sendim da management and Ribeira investment actions. Ensure proximity services to the Junta de population, including Artur Crotilho freguesia Local authority planning, AIFEFI management and investment actions. Identify specific needs Emanuel Agriculture AOTAD of agricultural sector Batista association and support the

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definition and implementation of adaptation actions. Identify specific needs of forestry sector and Joaquim Maia AFLOCAF Forestry association support the definition and implementation of adaptation actions. Identify specific needs on local adaptation, and support the definition and Domingos R.R. University/Research UTAD implementation of Lopes institution adaptation actions. Support, particularly, on technical and innovative aspects. Identify specific needs on local adaptation, and support the definition and Amilione University/Research ESA/IPS implementation of Tokona institution adaptation actions. Support, particularly, on technical and innovative aspects.

Resíduos do Identify specific needs Ana Carvalho Waste company Nordeste of waste management

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sector and support the definition and implementation of adaptation actions. Identify specific needs of social care sector and support the Liga dos definition and amigos do Célia implementation of centro social ONG Figueiredo adaptation actions. Alfândega da Support humanitary Fé assistance to the vulnerable population on emergencies. Identify specific needs of social care sector and support the

Santa Casa da definition and Ermelinda Misericordia implementation of ONG Salgueiro Alfândega da adaptation actions. Fé Support humanitary assistance to the vulnerable population on emergencies. Identify specific needs Liga dos António M.F of social care sector Amigos Centro ONG Simões and support the Social definition and

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Alfândega da implementation of Fé adaptation actions. Support humanitary assistance to the vulnerable population on emergencies. Identify specific needs on local adaptation, and support the definition and implementation of Rui Caseiro CIM-TTM Policy makers adaptation actions. Support, particularly, planning, management and investment actions. Identify specific needs on local adaptation, and support the definition and

Maria Manuel implementation of DESTEQUE Policy group Silva adaptation actions. Support, particularly, planning, management and investment actions.

Patricia Identify specific needs DESTEQUE Policy group Salgueiro on local adaptation,

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and support the definition and implementation of adaptation actions. Support, particularly, planning, management and investment actions.

It is suggested to form an Advisory Board engaging the stakeholders to get more detailed information about the municipality and how it is exposed to climate change. Meetings and surveys are desirable.

The municipality of Alfândega da Fé, during the preparation of its SECAP, has the objective to carry out a quantitative analysis. On this analysis the probable performance of each option, risk and an analysis in terms of costs and benefits will be developed. In some cases and whenever possible there will be a conversion into financial amounts.

During the preparation of the Alfândega da Fé´s SECAP, a governance model will be proposed that will allow a transversal and integrated management of the implementation and monitoring process of adaptation actions. The model that integrates a monitoring committee should allow the

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qualification of the technicians responsible for the implementation of measures, establish a communication with the citizens and with the various entities of the region, producing an annual report of the implementation process.

The proposed model integrates two types of participants, namely:

(i) the agents (technical groups) responsible for implementing the measure and, (ii) citizens, communities, companies and other interested groups, partners in the activities carried out and / or beneficiaries of the measures proposals. This extended group should meet twice a year (some participants may need to meet in the middle), to define goals, needs and strategies, as well as to report, evaluate and monitor the implementation process.

The monitoring committee will have at its disposal all communication tools of the municipality.

The municipality of Alfândega da Fé is located in Portugal´s North Region (NUT II), sub-region of Alto Trás-os-Montes (NUT III) and occupies a total area of 321.99 km2. Its geographical boundaries are delimited to the north by Bornes mountain range, to the south by the Sabor River Valley, to the east by Castro Vicente Plateau, and to the west by the Vilariça Valley. The Municipality is located in the district of Bragança and has as bordering

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counties at the North Macedo de Cavaleiros, at the East Mogadouro, at the South Tower of Moncorvo and at the West Vila Flor and Mirandela.

Alfândega da Fé is 425 km from Lisbon, 200 km from Porto, 100 km from Vila Real, 72 km from Bragança and 38 km from Mirandela. The EN315 establishes the connection between Alfandega da Fé and Mirandela, crossing EN102 - which gives access to IP2 and A4.

In cartographic terms, the county lies at latitude 41º20'N and longitude 6º58'W. Alfândega da Fé has high annual and diurnal thermal amplitudes and very clear seasonal variations, with the winter and the summer well marked.

The average annual temperature varies between 12.5 and 16.0 ºC. As for precipitation, it registers annual values in the order of 600 mm for most of the county, increasing in the direction of Serra de Bornes, at the top of which they reach to reach 1200 mm. The humidity of the air is low, being between 65 and 70%.

From the geomorphological point of view, the county is mostly composed of rocks of metamorphic and eruptive origin. The dominant soils are thin, which makes it difficult to exploit them for agricultural purposes, requiring constant fertilization and spraying; a situation that is only different in the Vilariça Valley (with aptitude for agricultural practice, forestry and pastures). All water courses belonging to this county belong to the river Douro, and the river Sabor which is the most important course. Alfândega da Fé is involved in an impressive diversity of microclimates, offering visitors stunning and impressive landscapes, still strongly marked by the agricultural component, namely the production of wine, olive oil, almond and cherry.

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Agriculture in natural spaces is the one mostly represented, occupying around 26.17%, being represented mainly in the parishes of Vilarelhos, Eucísia, Sambade e Vilarçhão. The following is the class "natural pastures", which occupies around 12.76%, being represented mainly in the South county. In total forest Alfandega da Fé has 4094.4 ha corresponding to 12.72%. The forest potential and woodlands represent 22.56% (7260.62 ha) of the total county. In this municipality there has been a decrease in the agricultural area and an increment of the uncultivated, leading to a significant increase in the Forest area (12,366 ha). Regarding the agricultural lands, although we do not have concrete values, it is verified that a significant part is abandoned, which constitutes a risk.

Alfândega da Fé has strategic plans that have already been developed, namely, forest fire prevention plan, heat waves emergency plans and the municipal strategic plan.

The municipality of Alfândega da Fé is located in Terra Quente Transmontana and has at IC5 the main link between the coast (up to A4 and

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north, Porto) and Spain (Via Miranda do Douro). This road intersects with the IP2 (internal link up to the A25), and the industrial zone of Alfândega da Fé is served by a direct access node to the IC5.

Alfândega da Fé is located 425 km from Lisbon (the same distance from Madrid), 185 km from Porto, 85 km from Vila Real, 72 km from Bragança and 38 km from Mirandela.

With the current road network, it is possible to make road connections between Alfândega da Fé and Oporto in two hours, Lisbon or Madrid in four, Valladolid in two and a half hours or Vigo in about three hours.

The importance of accessibility and mobility represents for the municipality a greater openness and possibility of revitalization of the social and economic fabric. This is recognized as one of the objectives of the municipality namely on the need for reformulation of the entire public space in terms of level of accessibility conditions, promoting the elimination of architectural barriers, permanent cleaning and corresponding civic valorisation. In terms of accessibility, the construction of IC5 road will improve road accessibility to the inhabitants that live in the most peripheral set of municipalities in the North region and foster new fast access to the Douro Wine Region. In addition, the construction of this route should represent an improvement in the living conditions of the entire municipality and not only the population closest to the access nodes.

Other objectives of the municipality are to promote public transport in order to reduce the use of private vehicles, which are assumed as the type of vehicles most used, and thus contribute to redefine the public transport system, promote qualification campaigns road links and urban roads in terms of traffic, signalling and road safety. In this way, deficiencies related to the

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reduced supply of public transport and the low use of these means of transport will be filled. The current proposal will be a positive factor, in the sense that it is intended to create a collective transport system that fits the real demand, improving the mobility of the rural populations in low density areas and ensuring accessibility to a range of proximity services.

Alfândega da Fé has strategic mobility plans that have already been developed by the Intermunicipal Community and for all the region, namely:

- CIM-TTM Municipal Road Action Plan - CIM-TTM Mobility and Transport Study

In the municipality of Alfândega Fé the protected areas are represented by the forest perimeters of the Sierra de Bornes that occupy a total of 210 ha and by the natura 2000 network (Sabor River) with 2,636 ha.

The area of forest perimeters is totally occupied by Pinus pinaster and Pseudotsuga menziesii). It is verified that the natura 2000 network is more important from the point of view of its extension, the forest species that exist there are: Juniperus communis, Quercus ilex, Quercus coccifera and cork oaks (Quercus suber).

In terms of air quality, the following table shows the total emissions including natural sources (values in t / km2)

NMVO SOx NOx NH3 PM10 Pb Cd Hg CH4 CO2 N2O C

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0.022 0.564 0.285 2.100 0.175 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.988 58 0.113

The waste management, in the Municipality of Alfândega da Fé, is from the responsibility of the Northeast Waste Company, EIM. The System is composed by the following infrastructures:

- Environmental Park of Nordeste Transmontano, which includes 1 Landfill, 1 Energy Recovery Center of Biogas, 1 Wastewater Treatment Plant and 1 Mechanical and Biological Treatment Unit;

- 4 Transfer Stations (Bragança, Torre de Moncorvo, Vimioso and Vinhais);

- 1 Multimaterials Park;

- 14 Ecocenters;

- 616 Ecopoints.

The municipality of Alfândega da Fé has a collection service for furniture, mattresses, household appliances, large volumes. Residents who do not have the means to go to Ecocenter to do the deposit of these materials, can request their collection at home, through the Environment Sector of the Division of Urbanism and Environment of the Municipality.

Public water supply and urban wastewater sanitation services are provided by the municipality being its responsibility:

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- The management of municipal systems for abstraction, elevation, treatment, adduction, storage and distribution of water for public consumption, as well as the management of water sources not connected to the public water distribution network that are the only origin of water for human consumption, guaranteeing the public supply of water and quantity and quality, in an uninterrupted manner;

- The dispose of own water for human consumption duly controlled, in quantity that meets the basic needs of the population and in quality, complying with the water quality regime for human consumption defined by Decree-Law no. 306/2007, of August 27;

- To ensure the quality of water for human consumption;

- The management of municipal systems for the collection, drainage, elevation, treatment and rejection of urban waste water, as well as the collection, transport and final destination of individual sewage sludge in an uninterrupted manner.

In order to analyse the historical events that the municipality has suffered and its resilience to climate change and natural hazards, available information on these topics have been compiled:

Title Author Year Description

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PMDFCI CM ALFÂNDEGA The Municipal Plan for the defence of the Forest against Fire makes a ALFÂNDEGA DA DA FÉ 2017 historical analysis of the forest FÉ fires that occurred in the municipality Terra Quente Transmontana PIAAC TQT AMTQT 2018 Regional Adaptation Plan to Climate Change

The first step is to select the key climate variables for the municipality, a step that is closely related to the climatic scenarios identified in the reports compiled in point 3.1.

Rainfall (mm) ✓

Number of rainy days ✓

Duration of dry periods 

Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) 

Maximum temperature ✓

Minimum temperature ✓

Number of warm days ✓

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Number of warm nights ✓

Number of freezing days 

Heat waves ✓

Heating degree days 

Cooling degree days 

Forest fires 

Other (please specify) 

We used two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) forcing up to a certain level by 2100): RCP4.5 - intermediate trajectory where the radiative forcing stabilizes at approximately 4.5W / m2 and RCP8.5 - trajectory of high radiative forcing that reaches values above 8.5W / m2 by 2100 and continues to increase for a certain period of time

Adaptation planning is carried out based on climate scenarios, analysis of impacts and vulnerabilities, analysis of adaptation measures and

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participatory adaptation planning where adaptation measures are defined at the regional level.

The analysis of climate scenarios and impacts and vulnerabilities is based on climate projections that are developed based on a set of simulations obtained through regional climate models, also considering the simulated climate data from IPMA – Sea and atmosphere Portuguese institute.

The information obtained in the previous steps is compiled in the following table:

Indicator 2017 Scenari Projection 2100 Average os Min Average Max Rainfall (mm/day) RCP 4.5 0 2,08 7,39 1,47 RCP 8.5 0 1,65 8,72 Number of rainy days (days) RCP 4.5 - 111 - 100 RCP 8.5 - 75 - Maximum temperature (°C) RCP 4.5 9,1 18,6 30,1 17,8 RCP 8.5 11,2 23,1 35,3 Minimum temperature (°C) RCP 4.5 -0,6 6,6 14,7 5,8 RCP 8.5 2,78 10,5 20,2 Number of warm days (days) RCP 4.5 - 2 - 0 RCP 8.5 - 49 - Number of warm nights (days) RCP 4.5 - 1 - 0 RCP 8.5 - 42 - Heat waves (nº) RCP 4.5 - 2 - 1 RCP 8.5 - 4 -

For climate change hazards which apply to the municipality, include the following information:

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Current Expected Expected Climate Hazard hazard change in change in Timeframe risk level intensity frequency Extreme heat High Increase Increase Short term Extreme cold Moderate Decrease Decrease Medium term Extreme Moderate Increase Increase Medium term precipitation Floods Low Increase Increase Long term Sea level rise n.a n.a n.a n.a Droughts High Increase Increase Medium term Storms Moderate Increase Increase Medium term Landslides Moderate Increase Increase Medium term Forest Fires High Increase Increase Short term Other (please specify)

In order to identify the climate hazards that will affect the municipality the most, they have been categorized following the next punctuation:

Therefore, the climate hazards with greater consequences on the municipality are presented in the following image:

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CLIMATE HAZARDS ON ALFÂNDEGA DA FÉ

Current hazard risk level Expected change in intensity Expected change in frequency Timeframe

EXTREME HEAT 3 3 3 3

EXTREME COLD 2 1 1 2

EXTREME PRECIPITATION 2 3 3 2

FLOODS 1 3 3 1

DROUGHTS 3 3 3 2

STORMS 2 3 3 2

LANDSLIDES 2 3 3 2

FOREST FIRES 3 3 3 3

Vulnerabilities can be understood as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. There are two main groups of vulnerabilities:

Vulnerability Description

The population is decreasing which leads to a very disperse population in the territory with a high % of elderly population Population growth with difficulties in accessing to infrastructures and difficulties in what regards communications.

The fact that the population density is low and have some Population density dispersion in the territory may lead to the vulnerability of the

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most sensitive groups due to problems in communications, infrastructures, among others

Due to the temperature increase it is expected the arising of Sensitive population (elderly, problems on human health, increased respiratory and heart young, single, unemployed) diseases, allergies and health quality problems in vulnerable social groups and increased mortality rate.

The fact that the population is disperse in the territory may Population living in risky areas lead to the vulnerability of the most sensitive groups due to problems in communications, infrastructures, among others

High temperatures / heat waves may also lead to reduced quality of crops resulting in the loss of productivity. It may also lead to infrastructure degradation due to excessive heat (deformation of the asphalt due to melting) and lead to a decrease in buildings thermal comfort and in the urban areas Areas not accessible for services bioclimatic comfort, increase in the number of landslides due to changes in soil caused by the increase in forest fires and extreme events of wind and precipitation. These will be serious and may lead to traffic conditioning / road closures, soil losses, destruction of crops and biodiversity and damage to buildings and / or contents.

Population in the municipality is disperse and a high % of population with low cultural level may lead to an increase of Population with low cultural population without access to information what may cause level more problems on human health, increased diseases, and health quality problems in particular in vulnerable social groups resulting in an increased mortality rate.

CC may lead to a reduction of the forest potential, pest

Economic activity sensitive to increase and yield losses, an increase in invasive species and loss of biodiversity. High temperatures / heat waves may also CC lead to reduced quality of crops resulting in the loss of productivity.

Other (please specify)

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Vulnerability Description

Presence of affected coastal N.A areas

High temperatures / heat waves and the increase in the number of forest fires and increase in large forest fires (> 100 Presence of affected rivers ha), which will be more harmful, may affect water quality. Also, the high temperatures and the heat waves will cause problems with the availability of water.

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to infrastructure degradation due to excessive heat (deformation of the asphalt due to melting), Increase in the number of landslides Transport network in risky areas due to changes in soil caused by the increase in forest fires. These will be serious and may lead to traffic conditioning / road closures.

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to a decrease in buildings thermal comfort and in the urban areas bioclimatic Buildings in risky areas comfort. The increase in of forest fires and consequently landslides due to changes in soil may lead to the damage in buildings and / or contents.

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to a decrease in buildings thermal comfort. Extreme events related to wind Old buildings can cause serious damage in old buildings and other infrastructures.

Increase in the number of forest fires and increase in large forest fires (> 100 ha), which will be more harmful, may affect Air pollution air quality. Also, the high temperatures will also influence air quality.

Increase in the number of forest fires and increase in large forest fires (> 100 ha), which will be more harmful, may affect water quality. Also, the high temperatures and the heat Water pollution waves will cause problems with the availability of water which causes the increase of microorganisms due to a lower level of velocity in the water courses

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High temperatures / heat waves may lead to a reduction of the forest potential, pest increase and yield losses, increase in Soil pollution invasive species and loss of biodiversity. High temperatures / heat waves may also lead to reduced quality of crops resulting in the loss of productivity.

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to a decrease in Urban Heat Islands the urban areas bioclimatic comfort

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to infrastructure degradation due to excessive heat (deformation of the asphalt due to melting), Increase in the number of landslides Difficulty to access risky areas due to changes in soil that may lead to traffic conditioning / (emergencies) road closures. Also, the communications infrastructures are in risk due to extreme wind and precipitation what may cause problems in what regards the actions of the civil protection and emergency services.

High temperatures / heat waves and forest fires may lead to Presence of forest a reduction of the forest potential, pest increase and an increase in invasive species and loss of biodiversity.

Other (please specify)

Once all municipal’s vulnerabilities have been defined, it is necessary to evaluate them according to two parameters:

Sensitivity: In the context of a risk assessment, the term sensitivity refers to the degree to which a system (asset) is affected by, or responsive

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to a hazard. In other words, sensitivity captures the potential of a system to be impacted by a hazard. Sometimes sensitivity is determined by the criticality of the service that the system provides.

Adaptive capacity: The capacity for adaptation will be determined by available technical and scientific knowledge, as well as by the financial capacity to undertake adaptation actions.

The range of values are:

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

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but no action has been taken.

The results obtained in this vulnerability assessment are presented in the following chart:

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VULNERABILITIES IN ALFÂNDEGA DA FÉ

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

PRESENCE OF FOREST 4 4 3 DIFFICULTY TO ACCESS RISKY AREAS … 4 3 3 URBAN HEAT ISLANDS 3 4 3 SOIL POLLUTION 4 4 3 WATER POLLUTION 4 4 3 AIR POLLUTION 4 4 3 % OLD BUILDINGS 5 5 2 BUILDINGS IN RISKY AREAS 5 5 2 TRANSPORT NETWORK IN RISKY AREAS 4 4 3 PRESENCE OF AFFECTED RIVERS 5 5 3 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SENSITIVE TO CC 5 5 3 % POPULATION WITH LOW CULTURAL LEVEL 3 5 3 % OF AREAS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR SERVICES 4 4 3 % POPULATION LIVING IN RISKY AREAS 5 5 3 % SENSITIVE POPULATION (ELDERLY, … 5 5 2 POPULATION DENSITY 2 1 3 POPULATION GROWTH 2 3 3

The municipality of Alfândega da Fé have identified the sectors that will be affected (positively or negatively) by climate change. Those sectors are:

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Sector How is Climate Change going to affect it?

Buildings Negatively. Is expected a decrease in buildings thermal comfort, as well as in the urban areas bioclimatic comfort. Extreme events and fires can also damage buildings and or contents. Both impacts will represent an increase of costs, namely in maintenance of thermal comfort, maintenance and repair of buildings and/or contents and in insurance. Transport Negatively. Excessive heat can increase infrastructure degradation due to melting and deformation of the asphalt. Storms, floods, landslides and fires can damage transports infrastructures and lead to traffic conditioning or road closures. It will represent an increase of costs and in constraints on economic / logistical activity. Energy Negatively. Storms, floods, landslides and fires can damage energy infrastructures and lead to problems in the supply and in the service quality. Droughts may also limit the normal operation of hydro power plants. It will also represent an increase of costs and constraints on social and economic activity as well as in health services. Extreme temperatures will decrease buildings thermal comfort, increasing energy demand for climatization. Water Negatively. Storms, floods, landslides and fires can damage water infrastructures and lead to problems in the supply and in the service quality. Extreme cold can also compromises water supply. Droughts may also limit water availability, with higher impacts on health, biodiversity, food production and forest firefighting. It will also represent an increase of costs and in constraints on social and economic activity as well as in health services. Waste Negatively. Storms, floods, landslides and fires can damage waste infrastructures and lead to problems in collection and treatment. It will also represent an increase of costs. Land Use Planning Negatively. Extreme events and forest fires can decrease soil quality and problems with cultures and biodiversity, as well as obligate to changes in land use planning, particularly with new construction restrictions. Agriculture & Forestry Negatively. Extreme events, droughts and forest fires can impact on forest potential and crops quantity and quality, as well as on climate

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change mitigation capacity due to the potential for sequestering carbon from forest and agricultural areas/soils. Changes in crop types and / or agricultural processes may also be necessary in response to new climate conditions, soil characteristics and flowering stage changes. It will represent an increase of costs and in constraints on agricultural and forestry activity.

Environment & Biodiversity Negatively. Extreme events, droughts and forest fires can impact on local environment and biodiversity. The expected worsening of the dryness index of areas susceptible to desertification leads to reductions in biodiversity and changes in ecosystems. The increase in pests and invasive species also aggravates the loss of biodiversity. The increase in the occurrence and severity of forest fires, together with the loss of biodiversity, compromises water, soil and air quality. Health Negatively. Forest fires, changes on biodiversity and extreme temperatures, mainly, contribute to the increase of respiratory and heart diseases, allergies and health quality problems in vulnerable social groups, thus increasing mortality rate. Civil Protection and Negatively. The greater frequency of heat and cold waves, as well as Emergency storms, floods, landslides and fires, imply a higher programming and emergency response by civil protection services. Tourism Negatively and positively. It can act as an opportunity in a long term due to the temperature increase but it will also affect some current territory characteristics related to regional products characteristics and production. It will also influence the winter tourism characteristics in a specific time of the year.

For all sectors identified in 6.1, prioritising risks and vulnerabilities that obtained a major score, different impacts have been defined.

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Sector Climate risk Vulnerability Expected impact

Buildings High temperatures / heat Buildings thermal comfort Decrease in buildings waves / floods storms / affected and damage in thermal comfort and in landslides buildings and / or the urban areas contents due to fires and bioclimatic comfort. extreme events Increase of costs. Transport High temperatures / Infrastructure degradation May lead to traffic extreme precipitation / due to excessive heat conditioning / road floods / storms / (deformation of the closures. landslides / forest fires asphalt due to melting) and increase in the number of landslides due to changes in soil caused by the increase in forest fires and due to extreme events Energy High temperatures / heat Problems in the supply Problems in the supply waves / cold waves and related infrastructure and in the service quality. /droughts / extreme and high demand by the Increase of costs. precipitation / floods / population. storms / landslides / forest fires Water High temperatures / heat Problems in water Problems in the supply waves / cold waves infrastructures and water and in the service quality. /droughts / extreme availability. Increase of costs. precipitation / floods / storms / landslides / forest fires Waste Extreme precipitation / Problems in Problems in collection and floods / storms / infrastructures which may treatment services. landslides / forest fires cause problems in Increase of costs. collection and treatment Land Use Droughts / extreme Changes in soil quality Changes in plans or Planning precipitation / floods / and problems with regulations with new storms / landslides / cultures. restrictions namely in forest fires what concerns construction

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Agriculture High temperatures / heat Reduction of the forest Soil losses, destruction of & Forestry waves / cold waves potential and reduced crops, increase in invasive /droughts / extreme quality of crops. species, destruction of precipitation / floods / biodiversity and loss of storms / landslides / productivity forest fires Environmen High temperatures / heat Reduction of the forest Biodiversity losses and t & waves / cold waves potential and problems in affected water, soil and air Biodiversity /droughts / extreme what regards biodiversity. quality precipitation / floods / storms / landslides / forest fires Health High temperatures / heat Increase of problems on Increased respiratory and waves / cold waves / human health. heart diseases, allergies forest fires and health quality problems in vulnerable social groups and increased mortality rate. Civil High temperatures / heat Communications and Will affect civil protection Protection waves / cold waves infrastructures problems. and emergency services and /droughts / extreme actions. Emergency precipitation / floods / storms / landslides / forest fires Tourism High temperatures / heat Increase of tourism in May cause problems in waves / cold waves some periods but loss of some regional /droughts / extreme regional characteristics. characteristics, namely precipitation / floods / lost of regional products storms / landslides / production and change in forest fires the type of tourism, namely, loss of winter tourism characteristics in a specific time of the year. Also, the increase of temperature can cause congestion on health services.

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In order to valuate expected impacts according to their effect on the municipality, the following score table have been proposed:

Likelihood of Expected Impact Level Timeframe Occurrence 1- Unlikely 1- Low 1- Long term 2- Possible 2- Moderate 2- Medium term 3- Likely 3- High 3- Short term 4- Current

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN ALFÂNDEGA DA FÉ

Likelyhood of occurrance Expected impact level Timeframe

TOURISM 3 3 3

CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY 3 3 2

HEALTH 3 3 3

ENVIRONMENT & BIODIVERSITY 3 3 4

AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY 3 3 4

LAND USE PLANNING 3 3 4

WASTE 3 3 2

WATER 3 3 3

ENERGY 3 3 2

TRANSPORT 3 3 2

BUILDINGS 3 3 2

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LIFE ADAPTATE LIFE16 CCA/ES/000049

Risks and Vulnerabilities assessment in the Municipality of Mértola

1. Adaptative process approach

1.1. Establishment of the working group responsible for the adaptation process.

The Working Group in the Municipality of Mértola is formed by:

Name Position

Guilherme Machado Technician Margarida Fortunato Financial Manager Rosinda Pimenta City Councillor / Manager Technician (Protection Ricardo Lourencinho department) Sofia Martins External advisor Flávia Duarte External advisor Inês Silva External advisor

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1.2. Identification of Climate Change Adaptation Stakeholders

The different types of stakeholders to be involved in the Adaptation Plan development have been identified. The Stakeholder List in the Municipality of Mértola is formed by:

Name Organization Sector Competences

Ensure proximity services to the Junta de population, including - Freguesia de Local authority planning, Mértola management and investment actions. Identify specific needs of agricultural Cooperativa Agriculture sector and support - Agrícola do association the definition and Guadiana implementation of adaptation actions. Identify specific Alqueva Multi- needs of agricultural Purpose sector and support - EDIA Enterprise the definition and Management implementation of Company adaptation actions. Instituto Identify specific University/Research - Politécnico de needs on local institution Beja adaptation, and

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support the definition and implementation of adaptation actions. Support, particularly, on technical and innovative aspects. Identify specific needs of Water management sector Águas Públicas - Water company and support the do Alentejo definition and implementation of adaptation actions. Identify specific needs of waste management sector - RESIALENTEJO Waste company and support the definition and implementation of adaptation actions. Identify specific needs of social care sector and support Santa Casa da the definition and - Misericórdia de ONG implementation of Mértola adaptation actions. Support humanitary assistance to the

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vulnerable population on emergencies. Identify specific needs on local adaptation, and support the definition and implementation - CIMBAL Policy makers of adaptation actions. Support, particularly, planning, management and investment actions. Identify specific needs on local Associação adaptation, and Humanitária support the definition - dos Bombeiros Firefighting and implementation Voluntários de of adaptation actions. Mértola Support, particularly, emergency services. Identify specific needs on local adaptation, and Parque Natural Natural park support the definition - do Vale do management and implementation Guadiana of adaptation actions. Support, particularly, natural areas and

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biodiversity conservation. Identify specific needs on local adaptation, and support the definition Conservation of and implementation - ICNF Nature and of adaptation actions. Forestry Support, particularly, natural areas and biodiversity conservation. Identify specific needs on local adaptation, and Defense of the support the definition ADPM - Heritage of and implementation

Mértola of adaptation actions. Support, particularly, heritage conservation.

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1.3. Financing and resources

The municipality will use its own resources. Additionally, the municipality of Mértola, during the preparation of its SECAP, has the objective to carry out a quantitative analysis. On this analysis the probable performance of each option, risk and an analysis in terms of costs and benefits will be developed. In some cases and whenever possible there will be a conversion into financial amounts.

1.4. Internal and external communication

During the preparation of Mértola´s SECAP, a governance model will be proposed that will allow a transversal and integrated management of the implementation and monitoring process of adaptation actions. The model that integrates a monitoring committee should allow the qualification of the technicians responsible for the implementation of measures, establish a communication with the citizens and with the various entities of the region, producing an annual report of the implementation process.

The proposed model integrates two types of participants, namely:

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The monitoring committee will have at its disposal all communication tools of the municipality.

2. Relevant information of Mértola in terms of Climate Change

2.1. Geographical situation of the municipality

The municipality of Mértola with an area of 1,293 km2 being one of the largest, in area, in Portugal, being in the extreme SE of the Alentejo Region. Classified as rural county of 2nd class, it is inserted in the district of Beja having as boundaries the counties of Beja and Serpa to the North, Castro Verde and Almodôvar to the West, Alcoutim to the South and to the East the Andalusian province of Huelva.

The town of Mértola distances from Lisbon, approximately 240 km, and from Beja 50 km, maintaining a distance to the surrounding municipalities that varies between 38 and 51 km (respectively Castro Verde and Serpa).

The municipality of Mértola has a population of 7,274 inhabitants, and a population density of 5.63 hab./Km2, being divided administratively in seven parishes.

The demographic dynamics of the municipality of Mértola makes it possible to estimate a strong decline in population, especially in the second half of the twentieth century, which resulted in a significant loss of population, from a population of 29,353 inhabitants in 1950 to 7,274 inhabitants nowadays.

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Based on the general census of the population, approximately 1,400 people lived in the Village of Mértola, in a context of 7274 inhabitants for the total municipality.

The trend of ageing in the whole national territory is particularly notable on the evolution of the population structure of the municipality of Mértola, as well as of the NUT III Baixo Alentejo.

As for the demographic potential, which is noticeable due to a marked decrease in numbers, it explains in part because there is a decrease in population densities, which is currently very low in the order of 5.63 inhab./km2 correlative demographic and relational density.

The current economic fabric of the territory, traditionally supported by agricultural activity and livestock, is characterized by a major structural weakness, combining a significant but not very profitable primary sector, a secondary sector that is almost non-existent and a predominant but focused tertiary sector based on services, in particular in the local public administration and institutions of social solidarity.

This lack of importance of the primary sector in the occupation of the resident population contrasts with an increase on the last decades of the tertiary sector (identified as the main sector of activity), having evolved essentially due to an increase in activities more directly related to consumption, namely commerce, as well as services to support the population and public administration. On the other hand, it should be noted that employment in activities related to tourism (accommodation, catering and entertainment) has become increasingly important in the municipality.

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The municipality of Mértola, like all Baixo Alentejo region, presents a Mediterranean climate, with low rainfall and high thermal amplitudes. The winters are cold and the summers dry and hot.

The average annual temperature varies between 15ºC and 17.5ºC, rising above the latter, in the most eastern part of the county. The relative humidity of the air can reach 80% during the winter months and the average annual rainfall can vary between 400 and 700 mm.

Mértola´s consists essentially of three large landscaped units: the Guadiana River valleys, the plains and the quartzite mountains of Alcaria and São Barão and the Special Protection Areas of Guadiana Valley and Castro Verde. In what regards water lines, those are scattered throughout all the county, having the Guadiana River, the Chança River, the Vascão River, the Terges rivulet, the Oeiras rivulet and Carreiras rivulet a major importance. The Chança Dam is the main reference in lagoons and reservoirs, and small dams are located along the municipality.

With a marked exposure to the SO and NE quadrants and with mostly low slopes (0-15%) with some accentuated zones with a highest altitude (15- 35%), Mértola municipality presents a variable mean altitude between 100 and 300 meters, reaching its highest point in Alcaria mountain range with 370 meters of altitude.

Ecologically, Alentejo is located in one of the most difficult areas of woodland in the country, which combines a period of intense and prolonged summer dryness with low quality soils. In this territory the predominant type of soils are the Litosols and the Luvisols, being the first more abundant than the second.

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In general, these soils are characterized by being incipient and poorly evolved, deriving the Litosols from consolidated rocks and the Luvisols from limestone rocks, both of which have a thickness of less than 10 cm.

Mértola also considers that the regions in Southern Europe are characterized by a semi-arid Mediterranean climate, sharing severe environmental and social challenges, as they are particularly vulnerable to drought and desertification due to low and declining soil quality, irregular precipitation, and increasing temperatures.

Moreover, low population densities mean that there are few opportunities for young people. These environmental and socio-economic conditions constitute barriers to economic development and environmental security. Many of the current agricultural practices are not adequate to respond to these challenges, and indeed often exacerbate them.

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Thereby Mértola is working to mitigate climate change and increase its resilience, and is already planned an action-oriented project, which combines regenerative and syntrophic agricultural approaches, education and entrepreneurial development to revitalise land and communities. Regenerative agriculture promotes diverse and climate-tolerant perennial plant communities for soil regeneration, water conservation, and biodiversity enhancement to deliver natural services such as pollination and pest control. Combining land restoration, education and local food systems with an entrepreneurial landscape, facilitates the emergence of resilient and diverse value-chains for sustainable agricultural products founded on the principle of a health environment.

2.2. Urban mobility

In terms of accessibility, the municipality of Mértola is served mainly by the following national roads: EN 112, EN 123, EN 267 and EN 265. EN 122 crosses the whole municipality in the Northwest-Southeast direction; the EN 123 crosses almost all of the municipality of Castro Verde and a small part located to the Northwest of the municipality of Mértola. EN 267 crosses part of the municipality of Almodôvar and ends in the central area of the municipality of Mértola, joining the EN 265 that follows to Northeast, towards the municipality of Serpa.

In addition to these roadways there are also several municipal roads that together allow good accessibility to any part of the county.

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The road network has a total extension of approximately 632 km in the Municipality of Mértola, being the extension of the IC network of 51.3 km and the regional road 67.3 km.

The municipal roads reach an extension in the order of 513 km, complemented with the agricultural roads in the order of 250 km.

The road network has been built and maintained by the Municipality in recent years, as a fundamental policy of territorial cohesion, given the characteristic of traditional settlement and that has remained throughout the centuries, despite the population exodus.

The population of the municipality disperses by more than 100 smaller villages. The dispersion and isolation continues to be a determining factor and a problem for the infrastructure conclusion and has forced a municipal investment in the public supply, basic sanitation and urban requalification of the villages.

Mértola has developed a strategic mobility plan.

2.3. Environmental analysis

According to the Ecological Charter, the municipality of Mértola is mainly inserted in the Ibero-Mediterranean (IM) Ecological Zone, with the exception of the Guadiana Valley Natural Park that forms part of the Mediterranean- Ibero-Mediterranean Ecological Zone (MxIM). Of the total area, 208.9 km2 belongs to the Natural Network, 616.4 km2 are classified as Protected Area and 693.0 km2 as Special Protection Area of Conservation. Mértola characterized as an agricultural municipality (42.7%) and uncultivated (34.3%), with 20.4% of the total area of the municipality occupying forest area.

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At a forest level, the municipality is characterized by the predominant presence of holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia), being the cork oak (Quercus suber) practically non-existent. In mounted areas we can find two types of areas: the explored and the abandoned mounted. The first, devoid of sub- forest and with a sub-cover composed mainly of rainfed crops in rotation with fallow or pasture, has gained greater expression due to the installation or improvement of areas through projects financed with community funds. The second has developed towards the forest type, presenting a richer and more diversified ecological environment.

In addition to these forest formations, areas of pine (18.2%) and eucalyptus (4.4%) are frequently observed because of the installation of afforestation or reforestation projects. Despite its low expressiveness, other hardwoods (3.6%), other forest plantations (3.1%) and wild pine (0.5%) can be found in the municipality. Occupying only 1.9% and 0.7%, there are inland waters and urban areas, respectively.

Being associated with important social, ecological and environmental values, the holm oak, with its unique characteristics and specificities, is the most adequate humanized system to sustain the desertification process and the one that best values the soils, while promotes the raise of the community of living beings.

In the municipality it was inventoried about 128 species of birds. In what regards the mammal community, 30 species were registered and there’s also 17 species of amphibians and 7 species of reptiles where two of them Iberian endemic species.

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Lastly, we should note that the fish group, which contains 6 species listed in Annex II of the Habitats Directive and where 2 are classified as endangered species.

The recognition of the high biodiversity that distinguishes this region was reflected in the creation of a protected area, the Natural Park of the Guadiana Valley (NPGV) in 1995, which includes the southern part of the municipality of Serpa and the entire left side of the municipality of Mértola, and whose management should be articulated with the objectives of the Natura 2000 Network.

NPGV has an approximate area of 69,773 hectares that extends from the river fall of Pulo do Lobo and the Vascão river, in the south of Mértola. It includes well-differentiated landscaped units: the embedded valleys of the river and its feeders, the quartzite elevations of the Alcaria and São Barão montains, and an extensive and rugged plain area.

In addition to having a huge faunistic, floristic interest, its originality results from geomorphological, landscape and historical-cultural aspects, which gives it a very particular identity. Thus, different types of habitats can be observed, related to the morphoclimatic and pedological characteristics.

In this protected area, there is also the Vale Formoso Experimental Center, which is dedicated to experimental studies related to soil erosion.

In terms of air quality, the following table shows the total emissions including natural sources (values in t / km2)

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SOx NOx NH3 NMVOC PM10 Pb Cd Hg CH4 CO2 N2O

0.008 0.218 0.397 1.017 0.093 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.790 21 0.172

2.4. Urban waste

In 2009, the municipal services collected 301 tons of municipal solid waste, which, on average, represents 34 kg of waste produced annually by each inhabitant. In the current year were collected, until June 145 tons.

In order to collect the solid waste there are two trucks available, each with three employees. There is also a tractor with trailer used to the collection in the old village.

The municipality has a team of employees who, in addition to collecting the waste, ensures the washing and disinfection of the containers. In the village this washing is done weekly, in zones closest to the village and with better accessibility this service is carried out fortnightly. In more isolated areas, and like what happens in the collection of garbage, the cleaning is more sporadic. The municipality also carries out the cleaning of the public spaces in the village of Mértola and in S. Domingos Mine. In other locations this service is provided by the Parish Councils.

The collection and recycling of solid waste are carried out by two entities, the Municipality of Mértola and by AMALGA. In 2009, in addition to the treatment of municipal solid waste, it was collected 39 tonnes of paper and board, 18 tonnes of glass, 680 kg plastic, 13 Kg electrical equipment and 20 tonnes of household appliances (monsters), in total of 90 tonnes.

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The distribution of ecopoints is made in a wider scope logic, so there are - 43 ecopoints distributed by the municipality and 9 in the village. In addition to these, 29 glass ecopoints were distributed throughout the municipality.

2.5. Water and sewerage

Due to a combination of natural factors, the Municipality of Mértola is in a very disadvantaged region in terms of the availability of water resources, which is especially felt in underground production of water for human consumption. This fact results from the hydrogeological characteristics of the existing formations in the county, which translate into a very low productivity, and which has as a practical result the low availability in water to be captured. On the other hand, but also because of the geological characteristics, in addition to the low quantity, the quality is also relatively reduced, due to the presence in excess of Iron, manganese, calcium and magnesium. Another problem of the water quality is the presence of nitrates, with an organic origin, due to the high number of individual septic tanks that exists.

It should be noted that, depending on these supply systems, originating in groundwater, there are permanently around 4500 inhabitants, dispersed by about 100 agglomerates with populations varying between 10 and 150 inhabitants, and more than 80% of those with a population of less than 100 inhabitants. Also, this typology, marked by a high dispersion, is an aggravating factor, since it requires the existence of a supply system for each small agglomerate, often served by more than one groundwater catchment, given its poor productivity.

The population living in the municipality of Mértola is supplied by different sources of water, resulting in a high number of supply zones. Considering the

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municipality total area, we can consider the existence of 94 supply systems, 92 of underground origin and 2 of superficial origin. Each supply system corresponds to a supply zone.

In all the systems there is installed treatment systems adapted to the characteristics of the water.

The Municipality of Mértola is served by 21 wastewater treatment plants (17 belonging to the Municipality and 4 to a public company). This corresponds to 61% of the population that are covered by the municipal sanitation network.

The remaining localities are served by private cesspits and are cleaned by municipal services. This service has assigned two trucks to carry out this type of cleaning, which is performed by request of a citizen and is intended to serve all those who are not yet covered by the municipal sanitation network.

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3. Climate Change Scenarios

3.1. Existing reports on Climate Change in the Municipality

In order to analyse the historical events that the municipality has suffered and its resilience to climate change and natural hazards, available information on these topics have been compiled:

Title Author Year Description

Report produced within the Vizinho A. et al project Adapt for Change - (2016), Plano de Improve the success of Adaptação de reforestation in semi-arid areas: Mértola às adaptation to climate change Alterações MÉRTOLA scenario. The goal of Adapt For Climáticas ADAPTATION Change is to decrease the cost- - Sector das PLAN benefit of reforestations through Florestas e 2016 - Forestry and the development of a model that Agricultura, Agriculture Sector points the following specific areas: Fundação i) may be easily and cheaply Faculdade de regenerated; ii) must be subject to Ciências assisted reforestation, with the Universidade de support of different methods; iii) Lisboa, must be occupied by alternative Mértola, 34pp. activities because of the difficulty in reforestation. CM Mértola The Municipal Plan for the Defence PMDFCI of the Forest against Fires makes Coordination: 2017 an historical analysis of the forest MÉRTOLA Marta Cortegano fires that occurred in the municipality Baixo Alentejo regional PIAAC Baixo CIMBAL 2018 Adaptation Plan to Climate Alentejo Change

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3.2. Identification and description of climate change scenarios.

3.2.1. Climate variables

Rainfall (mm) 

Number of rainy days 

Duration of dry periods 

Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) 

Maximum temperature 

Minimum temperature 

Number of warm days 

Number of warm nights 

Number of freezing days 

Heat waves 

Heating degree days 

Cooling degree days 

Forest fires  Other (please specify)

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3.2.2. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

3.2.3. Local projections using national tools

Adaptation planning is carried out based on climate scenarios, analysis of impacts and vulnerabilities, analysis of adaptation measures and participatory adaptation planning where adaptation measures are defined at the regional level.

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3.2.4. Indicators

The information obtained in the previous steps is compiled in the following table:

Indicator 2017 Scenari Projection 2100 Average os Min Average Max Rainfall (mm/day) RCP 4.5 0 1,13 5,19 1,58 RCP 8.5 0 0,58 2,62 Number of rainy days (days) RCP 4.5 - 86 - 108 RCP 8.5 - 53 - Maximum temperature (°C) RCP 4.5 13 23,4 35,24 21,5 RCP 8.5 15,76 26,9 37,08 Minimum temperature (°C) RCP 4.5 4,03 10,7 18,71 9,4 RCP 8.5 7,1 13,9 20,84 Number of warm days (days) RCP 4.5 - 34 - 12 RCP 8.5 - 86 - Number of warm nights (days) RCP 4.5 - 28 - 11 RCP 8.5 - 76 - Heat waves (nº) RCP 4.5 - 3 - 2 RCP 8.5 - 5 -

4. Climate Hazards Assessment

For climate change hazards which apply to the municipality, include the following information:

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Current Expected Expected Climate Hazard hazard change in change in Timeframe risk level intensity frequency Extreme heat High Increase Increase Short term Extreme cold Low Decrease Decrease Medium term Extreme Moderate Increase Increase Medium term precipitation Floods Low Increase Increase Long term Sea level rise n.a n.a n.a n.a Droughts High Increase Increase Medium term Storms Moderate Increase Increase Medium term Landslides Moderate Increase Increase Medium term Forest Fires High Increase Increase Short term Other (please specify)

In order to identify the climate hazards that will affect the municipality the most, they have been categorized following the next punctuation:

Therefore, the climate hazards with greater consequences on the municipality are presented in the following image:

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CLIMATE HAZARDS IN MÉRTOLA

Current hazard risk level Expected change in intensity Expected change in frequency Timeframe

EXTREME HEAT 3 3 3 3

EXTREME COLD 1 1 1 2

EXTREME PRECIPITATION 2 3 3 2

FLOODS 1 3 3 1

DROUGHTS 3 3 3 2

STORMS 2 3 3 2

LANDSLIDES 2 3 3 2

FOREST FIRES 3 3 3 3

5. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Assessment

5.1. Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities

Vulnerability Description

The population is decreasing which leads to a very disperse population in the territory with a high percentage of elderly Population growth population with difficulties of access to infrastructures and difficulties in what regards communications.

The fact that the population is very disperse in the territory Population density may lead to the vulnerability of the most sensitive groups due

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to problems in communications, infrastructures, among others

Due to the temperature increase it is expected an increase of

Sensitive population (elderly, problems related to human health, increased respiratory and heart diseases, allergies and health quality problems in young, single, unemployed) vulnerable social groups what results in an increased mortality rate.

The fact that the population is very disperse in the territory may lead to the vulnerability of the most sensitive groups due Population living in risky areas to problems in communications, infrastructures, among others resulting in an increase of this percentage.

High temperatures / heat waves may also lead to reduced quality of crops resulting in the loss of productivity. It may also lead to infrastructure degradation due to excessive heat (deformation of the asphalt due to melting) and lead to a decrease in buildings thermal comfort and in the urban areas bioclimatic comfort, increase in the number of landslides due Areas not accessible for services to changes in soil caused by the increase in forest fires. These will be serious and may lead to traffic conditioning / road closures, soil losses, destruction of crops and biodiversity and damage to buildings and / or contents. With all these related problems an increase on the percentage of areas not accessible for services is expected.

Population in the municipality is very disperse and a high percentage of population with low cultural level may lead to

Population with low cultural an increment of population without access to information what may cause an increase of problems on human health, level increased diseases, and health quality problems in particular in vulnerable social groups and therefore increased mortality rate.

CC may lead to a reduction of the forest potential, pest

Other (please specify)

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5.2. Physical and Environmental Vulnerabilities

Vulnerability Description

Presence of affected coastal N.A areas

High temperatures / heat waves and the increase in the number of forest fires and increase in large forest fires (> 100 Presence of affected rivers ha), which will be more harmful, may affect water quality. Also, the high temperatures and heat waves will cause problems with the availability of water.

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to infrastructure degradation due to excessive heat (deformation of the asphalt due to melting), increase in the number of landslides Transport network in risky areas due to changes in soil caused by an increase in forest fires. These will be serious and may lead to traffic conditioning / road closures.

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to a decrease in buildings thermal comfort and in the urban areas bioclimatic comfort. The increase in the number of forest fires and Buildings in risky areas consequently landslides due to changes in soil caused by the increase in forest fires may lead to the damage in buildings and / or contents.

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to a decrease in buildings thermal comfort. Extreme events related to wind Old buildings can cause serious damage in old and classified buildings with an increase of percentage of affected old buildings.

Increase in the number of forest fires and increase in large forest fires (> 100 ha), which will be more harmful, may affect Air pollution air quality. Also, the high temperatures and the heat waves will cause problems related to dust phenomena that has origin in Africa.

Increase in the number of forest fires and increase in large forest fires (> 100 ha), which will be more harmful, may affect Water pollution water quality. Also, the high temperatures and the heat waves will cause problems with the availability of water

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which cause the increase of microorganisms due to a lower level of velocity in the water courses

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to a decrease in Urban Heat Islands the urban areas bioclimatic comfort

High temperatures / heat waves may lead to infrastructure degradation due to excessive heat (deformation of the asphalt due to melting), Increase in the number of landslides Difficulty to access risky areas due to changes in soil caused by the increase in forest fires (emergencies) that may lead to traffic conditioning / road closures. Also, the communications infrastructures are in risk what may cause problems in what regards the actions of the civil protection and emergency services.

High temperatures / heat waves and forest fires may lead to Presence of forest a reduction of the forest potential, pest increase and an increase in invasive species and loss of biodiversity.

Other (please specify)

5.3. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Assessment

Once all municipal’s vulnerabilities have been defined, it is necessary to evaluate them according to two parameters:

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Adaptive capacity: The capacity for adaptation will be determined by available technical and scientific knowledge, as well as by the financial capacity to undertake adaptation actions.

The range of values are:

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

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The results obtained in this vulnerability assessment are presented in the following chart:

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VULNERABILITIES IN MÉRTOLA

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

PRESENCE OF FOREST 4 4 2 DIFFICULTY TO ACCESS RISKY AREAS… 4 3 3 URBAN HEAT ISLANDS 4 4 3 SOIL POLLUTION 3 3 2 WATER POLLUTION 4 4 1 AIR POLLUTION 4 4 3 % OLD BUILDINGS 5 5 1 BUILDINGS IN RISKY AREAS 5 5 1 TRANSPORT NETWORK IN RISKY AREAS 4 4 2 PRESENCE OF AFFECTED RIVERS 5 5 4 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SENSITIVE TO CC 5 5 3 % POPULATION WITH LOW CULTURAL LEVEL 4 5 3 % OF AREAS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR SERVICES 3 3 1 % POPULATION LIVING IN RISKY AREAS 4 4 1 % SENSITIVE POPULATION (ELDERLY, … 5 5 1 POPULATION DENSITY 2 4 3 POPULATION GROWTH 2 4 3

6. Impact Risks expected in the municipality

6.1. Identification of key sectors

The municipality of Mértola has identified the sectors that will be affected (positively or negatively) by climate change. Those sectors are:

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Sector How is Climate Change going to affect it?

Buildings Negatively. Is expected a decrease in buildings thermal comfort, as well as in the urban areas bioclimatic comfort. Extreme events and fires can also damage buildings and or contents. Both impacts will represent an increase of costs, namely in maintenance of thermal comfort, maintenance and repair of buildings and/or contents and in insurance. Transport Negatively. Excessive heat can increase infrastructure degradation due to melting and deformation of the asphalt. Storms, floods, landslides and fires can damage transports infrastructures and lead to traffic conditioning or road closures. It will represent an increase of costs and in constraints on economic / logistical activity. Energy Negatively. Storms, floods, landslides and fires can damage energy infrastructures and lead to problems in the supply and in the service quality. Droughts may also limit the normal operation of hydro power plants. It will also represent an increase of costs and constraints on social and economic activity as well as in health services. Extreme temperatures will decrease buildings thermal comfort, increasing energy demand for climatization. Water Negatively. Storms, floods, landslides and fires can damage water infrastructures and lead to problems in the supply and in the service quality. Droughts may also limit water availability, with higher impacts on health, biodiversity, food production and forest firefighting. It will also represent an increase of costs and in constraints on social and economic activity as well as in health services. Waste Negatively. Storms, floods, landslides and fires can damage waste infrastructures and lead to problems in collection and treatment. It will also represent an increase of costs. Land Use Planning Negatively. Extreme events and forest fires can decrease soil quality and problems with cultures and biodiversity, as well as obligate to changes in land use planning, particularly with new construction restrictions. Agriculture & Forestry Negatively. Extreme events, droughts and forest fires can impact on forest potential and crops quantity and quality, as well as on climate

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Environment & Biodiversity Negatively. Extreme events, droughts and forest fires can impact on local environment and biodiversity. The expected worsening of the dryness index of areas susceptible to desertification leads to reductions in biodiversity and changes in ecosystems. The increase in pests and invasive species also aggravates the loss of biodiversity. The increase in the occurrence and severity of forest fires, together with the loss of biodiversity, compromises water, soil and air quality. Health Negatively. Forest fires, changes on biodiversity and extreme temperatures, mainly, contribute to the increase of respiratory and heart diseases, allergies and health quality problems in vulnerable social groups, thus increasing mortality rate. Civil Protection and Negatively. The greater frequency of heat waves, as well as storms, Emergency floods, landslides and fires, imply a higher programming and emergency response by civil protection services. Tourism Positively and negatively. It can act as an opportunity in a specific time of the year. In the summer period it is expected that it will affect negatively due to the fact that the temperature will be extremely high.

6.2. Expected Impact Risks

For all sectors identified in 6.1, prioritising risks and vulnerabilities that obtained a major score, different impacts have been defined.

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Sector Climate risk Vulnerability Expected impact

Buildings High temperatures / Buildings thermal Decrease in buildings heat waves / floods comfort affected and thermal comfort and in storms / landslides damage in buildings the urban areas and / or contents due bioclimatic comfort. to fires and extreme Increment of costs. events. Transport High temperatures / Infrastructure May lead to traffic extreme precipitation / degradation due to conditioning / road floods / storms / excessive heat closures. landslides / forest fires (deformation of the asphalt due to melting) and increase in the number of landslides due to changes in soil caused by the increase in forest fires and due to extreme events. Energy High temperatures / Problems in the supply Problems in the supply heat waves /droughts and related and in the service / extreme precipitation infrastructure and high quality. Increase of / floods / storms / demand by the costs. landslides / forest fires population. Water High temperatures / Problems in water Problems in the supply heat waves /droughts infrastructures. and in the service / extreme precipitation quality. Increase of / floods / storms / costs. landslides / forest fires Waste Extreme precipitation Problems in Problems in collection / floods / storms / infrastructures which and treatment landslides / forest fires may cause problems in services. Increase of collection and costs. treatment. Land Use Planning Droughts / extreme Changes in soil quality Changes in plans or precipitation / floods / and problems with regulations with new storms / landslides / cultures. restrictions namely on forest fires construction.

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Agriculture & Forestry High temperatures / Reduction of the forest Soil losses, destruction heat waves /droughts potential and reduced of crops, increase in / extreme precipitation quality of crops. invasive species, / floods / storms / destruction of landslides / forest fires biodiversity and loss of productivity. Environment & High temperatures / Reduction of the forest Biodiversity losses and Biodiversity heat waves /droughts potential and problems affected water, soil / extreme precipitation in what regards and air quality. / floods / storms / biodiversity. landslides / forest fires Health High temperatures / Increase of problems Increased respiratory heat waves / forest on human health. and heart diseases, fires allergies and health quality problems in vulnerable social groups and increased mortality rate. Civil Protection and High temperatures / Communications and Will affect civil Emergency heat waves /droughts infrastructures protection and / extreme precipitation problems. emergency services / floods / storms / actions. landslides / forest fires Tourism High temperatures / Increase of tourism. May cause problems in heat waves /droughts some time of the year / extreme precipitation when the temperature / floods / storms / is already high which landslides / forest fires may cause congestion on health services.

In order to evaluate expected impacts according to their effect on the municipality, the following score table has been proposed:

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Likelihood of Expected Impact Level Timeframe Occurrence 1- Unlikely 1- Low 1- Long term 2- Possible 2- Moderate 2- Medium term 3- Likely 3- High 3- Short term 4- Current

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN MÉRTOLA

Likelyhood of occurrance Expected impact level Timeframe

TOURISM 3 3 3

CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY 3 3 2

HEALTH 3 3 3

ENVIRONMENT & BIODIVERSITY 3 3 4

AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY 3 3 4

LAND USE PLANNING 3 3 4

WASTE 3 3 2

WATER 3 3 3

ENERGY 3 3 2

TRANSPORT 3 3 2

BUILDINGS 3 3 2

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LIFE ADAPTATE LIFE16 CCA/ES/000049

Risks and Vulnerabilities assessment in the Municipality of Águilas

Risks and Vulnerabilities assessment in the Municipality of Águilas ...... 1

1. Adaptative process approach ...... 3 1.1. Establishment of the working group responsible for the adaptation process...... 3

1.2. Identification of Climate Change Adaptation Stakeholders ...... 3

1.3. Financing and resources ...... 5

1.4. Internal and external communication ...... 5

2. Relevant information of Águilas in terms of Climate Change ...... 6 2.1. Geographical situation of the municipality ...... 6

2.2. Urban mobility ...... 13

2.3. Environmental analysis ...... 15

2.4. Urban waste ...... 15

2.5. Water and sewerage ...... 16

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3. Climate Change Scenarios ...... 18 3.1. Existing reports on Climate Change in the Municipality ...... 18 3.2. Identification and description of climate change scenarios...... 19 3.2.1. Climate variables ...... 19 3.2.2. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) ...... 19 3.2.3. Local projections using national tools ...... 20 3.2.4. Indicators ...... 30

4. Climate Change Risks Assessment ...... 32

5. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Assessment ...... 33 5.1. Socio-economic vulnerabilities ...... 33

5.2. Physical and Environmental Vulnerabilities ...... 34

5.3. Vulnerabilities Assessment ...... 35

6. Impacts expected in the municipality ...... 37 6.1. Identification of key sectors ...... 37

6.2. Expected impacts ...... 38

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1. Adaptative process approach

1.1. Establishment of the working group responsible for the adaptation process.

The Working Group in the Municipality of Águilas is formed by:

Name Position

Georges J. Janssen Muñoz Municipal Industrial Engineer (C.S.) Biologist, Municipal Environment Technician Enrique Delgado Carrasco (C.S.)1 Economist, Local Development Technician. Diego Mª Martínez López (C.S.) Andrés Cabrera Segura Municipal Building Engineer (C.S.) Javier Rollán Sánchez Municipal Architect. (C.S.) Ginés Desiderio Navarro Local Development & tourism Councillor Aragoneses Lorenzo Pérez Piñero Human Resources Negotiate chief. (C.S.) Lourdes Rodríguez Reviriego Administrative auxiliary (C.S.) Ginés de Gos Rabal Montalbán Municipal Draughtsman (C.S.)

1.2. Identification of Climate Change Adaptation Stakeholders

Different types of stakeholders that must be involved in the Adaptation Plan development have been identified. The Stakeholder List in the Municipality of Águilas is formed by:

1 C.S. = Civil Servant, public employee.

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Name Organization Sector Competences

Local Climate change adaptation Local Development Councillor Development coordinator Touristic activities, publicity and divulgation of the Tourism Councillor Local Government Tourism municipality of Águilas of Águilas outside. Arrangement of construction, Urbanism, Licenses and Urbanism and activities and other licenses. Environment Section Environment Environmental Issues. Local and Collaborating in collecting professional data and contributing in the Agrarian Local Council Agriculture consultant adaptation plan respect its organization sector. Local and Touristic activities, publicity professional and divulgation of the Tourism Local Council Tourism consultant municipality of Águilas organization outside. Local and professional Local commerce sector council Commerce consultant organization Local Government Planning of uses of land in Urbanistic Planning Section Urbanism of Águilas the municipality. Local Government Civil Protection Councillor Civil Protection of Águilas Local Government Local Police of Águilas Civic Security of Águilas The municipal tap water supplier Supply tap water, managing Water and sewerage system consultant Hidrogea, S.A. waste water and waste water management in Águilas depuration plant. Urban waste Collaborating in collecting The municipal streets cleaning ENTORNO collecting and data and contributing in the and urban waste collecting URBANO Y MEDIO municipal cleaning adaptation plan respect its consultant in Águilas. AMBIENTE, S.L. service. sector.

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1.3. Financing and resources

The most of human resources for the adaptation process will come from the municipality council. The list with all the people who will take part in this process are related in the 1.1 point, ‘working group in the municipality of Águilas’.

Moreover, the municipality of Águilas, will consider the collaboration of other resources like other municipalities expertises, consultancy firms, upper municipal governments, ….

In relation to finance, Life Adaptate covers the elaboration of the adaptation plan and the implementation of the first adaptation measure.

Other measures for adaptation will be financed with local, regional, national and international funds, depending on the costs of each action, taking into account the economical possibilities in each case.

1.4. Internal and external communication

Communications and official relationships into the work group in the municipality of Águilas will be ensured according to the regulated notifications. The use of new technologies, digital administration portal, official website and corporative mailings will let maintenance a constant communication, registering the evidence of knowing of each work group member.

Furthermore, to let people taking part into these questions (public participation), it will be created a forum with a clearly defined schedule, where the most of citizens representation (by neighbour associations) will be updated in each step that the municipality of Águilas gets in climate change adaptation tasks.

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At the same time, the official website of the council will include a particular space where people may register their particular opinion and collaborate in the adaptation process of Águilas.

2. Relevant information of Águilas in terms of Climate Change

2.1. Geographical situation of the municipality

• Geographic description.

Águilas is a coastal municipality at the southeast of The Peninsula Ibérica, on the ‘Costa Cálida’ Mediterranean area. It shares a border with the municipalities of Pulpí (province of Almería, region of Andalucía) at west and Lorca (region of Murcia) at north and east. Its southern border is the Mediterranean Sea. The Águilas location in the region of Murcia is in the southeast, at 105 Km distance from the capital, Murcia city.

Águilas collects several districts of disseminated population. ‘Calabardina’, ‘Los Collados’, ‘Tébar’, ‘Los Arejos’, ‘Los Gallegos’, …, are some of them.

‘El Talayon’ is the highest summit in Águilas; this peak is at 881 meters altitude over the sea level.

The official figure of population in 2017 was 34,758 inhabitants, nevertheless, this number exceeds 65,000 inhabitants2 in summer

2 Figure of population calculated in function to the amount of collected urban waste

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months. In these terms, Águilas is in the 7th position among all the municipalities of the Region of Murcia and the 209th municipality in Spain.

One of the key features of Águilas is its strategic coastal position. It is an ideal enclave for practicing maritime activities and beaching the entire year; thanks to its climatic conditions, it is probable that the local economy turn at a touristic town in a near future. Moreover, Águilas keeps its agricultural sector which is a crucial point for the employment.

Historically, the inefficient communication via and the large distance from the capital, have been harmful for the development of Águilas and has blocked its change towards a touristic village.

More than 95% of the population is concentrated around the urban nucleus; it confers a high population density in that area (more than 30,000 inhabitants live in the centre of the town).

Table 1. Population in the municipality of Águilas (INE)3 Sector Population Percentage Águilas (Inhabitants)32,363 93.11(%) Calabardina 648 1.86 Los Collados 364 1.05 Loszieschang Geráneos 219 0.61 Todosol 199 0.57 Calarreona 91 0.26

3 Official font: Statistics National Institute (INE) Population in the continuous pattern of population by populational unit.

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Los Arejos 57 0.16 Tébar 55 0.16 Rest 732 2.11 TOTAL(disseminated) 34,758

Map 3: Distribution of the main sectors of population in Águilas

The current urban structure of Águilas date from the 18th century, although, to find the first human settlement, we should go back to the Roman time.

At the end of the XIX century, because of the boom of the mining industry, the city of Águilas lived a short but intense period of glory, getting important infrastructures like the railway (made by The Great Southern of Spain Railway Company Limited) which joined Águilas with Lorca and Baza (Granada, Andalucía). This transport medium brought goods like esparto grass and minerals, the human

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settlement of one English entrepreneurs and workers community and motivated the construction of the second football stadium in Spain, ‘El Rubial’4.

The mining crisis in 1920´s and the birth of an intensive agriculture (crops covered by a plastic roof) changed the economy of the town. Therefore, the primary sector (agriculture) plus the beach tourism let increasing the population, overtaking the 30,000 inhabitants in the XXI century.

Nowadays, the economy is based on the tourism, especially in the summer period, based on the second residency visitors. However, the population of Águilas also rises in determined dates as Carnival (Águilas has a Carnival with international interest award).

In relation to the touristic features of this municipality, it collects more than 28 Km of coastal line, with marvellous beaches, some of them with special recognitions like the international Blue Flag (9 in 2018) or the touristic Q of quality (6 in 2018). On the other hands, Águilas has several virgin small bays.

4 The first football pitch in Spain was the ‘El Velódromo” (1892) in Huelva (Andalucía), however it was knocked down in 1960, since then ‘El Rubial’ succeed it as the oldest stadium in Spain.

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Maps 1&2: Strategical location of Águilas in Spain and Region of Murcia

• Buildings

Águilas collected 21,390 houses in 2011 (this figure comes from the regional centre of statistic in the Region de Murcia official website (econet.carm.es). The available figure in relation to the number of houses which are listed as tap water consumers in 2018 is 22,620 houses (total number of tap water consumer in Águilas in December 2017 is 23,748, where the 95% is represented by housing).

The distribution of houses according to its age and conservation state is:

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• Existing plans.

The current urbanistic planification of Águilas, the PGOU, dates from 20035. Nowadays, the municipality of Águilas is working in a new urbanistic plan for the following years, the PGMO6 (ordination municipal general plan), which

5 Urbanistic ordination general Plan of Águilas 6 The municipal ordination general plan is an according to new regulations plan .

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currently is in provisional approval (it´s expected the definite approval for the end of this 2018 year).

• Municipal land uses.

The different uses for the land and the model for the development of Águilas for the next years are in the memory of the PGMO. Between the guidelines of that document, the following principles are underlined:

1. Encouraging the tertiary and touristic uses of the land as an aspect for the regional development into the future tendencies of The Mediterranean Arch for the XXI century.

2. Making the necessary infrastructures for consolidating the structure of Águilas.

3. Coordinating the urbanistic development with the preservation of the environment, a sustainable development.

4. Making according for the development uses of the land for each economical sector, with the exception of heavy industry in ordinated land.

5. Organizing the different communication via hierarchically with the biggest upper municipal infrastructures.

6. Conservation of natural patrimony, landscape, archaeological and environmental values keeping them in a territorial model of development.

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7. Prevision of the necessary lucrative uses in each developing sector, making this model viable.

2.2. Urban mobility

Historically, Águilas count on an inefficient system of communications. This has been improved for the last three decades, since both highway and toll motorway were made. The first, C-3211 road, which join Águilas with Lorca and the A7 highway was finished in 1998 after a sequence of several unexpected circumstances were solved. This road improved the communication with Murcia along 110 Km by a free highway.

The mobility by road was rising until 2007 when a toll highway was made; the Cartagena-Vera section of the AP-7 “The Mediterranean highway” (La Junquera- Algeciras).

Moreover, Águilas count on a railway since 1890 that joins Águilas with the city of Murcia, crossing several municipalities as Lorca, Totana and Alhama de Murcia, among others.

The communications by sea disappeared in the beginning of the 20th century. Nowadays, the main seaport of Águilas is used by fishery and recreational sailing.

Type of vehicles

The predominated transport medium in Águilas is the private vehicle (4,817 cars, 3,886 motorbikes and 5,000 mopeds, among others). In relation to the public urban transport, the middle of the town is communicated with the different population districts across three lines of buses; this transport medium is used by more than 200,000 people.

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The principal transport medium in Águilas is the private vehicle. As the previous point indicated, in 2017 Águilas registered near 10,000 private vehicles (4,817 cars, 3,886 motorbikes and 5,000 mopeds, among others)

• Uses of vehicles.

The urbanistic design of Águilas and its orography make the movement (traffic) complicated, with frequent traffic jams. The vehicle park evolution has been stable, with a predominance of diesel vehicles. Nevertheless, the current circumstances make us presume a trend in favour of electrical or hybrid vehicles instead of diesel.

The traffic in Águilas is organized from the circumvallation via, a surrounding ring road with seven links to the strategic sectors of the municipality.

Most of the interurban traffics are represented by movements to Lorca and Murcia.

• Existing Mobility Plans.

Águilas has ever had a lack of cycle lanes. Nevertheless, since more than one decade, Águilas count with two sectors of this type of via. The first of them was made in the first years of 21st century and flow close to circumvallation via; the second one, was made in 2008 and joins Calarreona (residential area, outlying district) with the urban centre.

Currently, the municipality of Águilas is processing the project for the construction of a new section of cycle lane. Its length will be 2.5 Km that will start in the existing cycle lane near the circumvallation via, in the RM-14 roundabout.

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2.3. Environmental analysis

• Green spaces: extension, distribution, maintenance, uses.

Águilas has a surface of 332,293 m2 of green spaces (parks and gardens). This figure comes from the addition of more than 100 public areas (gardens, parks, squares, …) own dates of the municipality. For the maintenance of them, the council destiny about half million euros a year. The distribution is equitable, there are no population sector without a public green space.

• Air quality.

The air pollutants in Águilas are reduced to the emissions of fossil fuels combustions (transport). Nowadays we don´t have a particular figure of atmospheric pollutants in Águilas; the nearest static measure station is in Lorca, on 35 Km distance from Águilas.

Respect the noise, the main problem derives from the traffic of vehicles. The most affected sector of population by noise emissions is the middle of the town, due to the concentration of most of shopping and night activity. Punctual occasions with high peaks of noise (the highest levels) are the Carnival time and summer.

2.4. Urban waste

• Municipal waste management.

Águilas count on a uniform rate in waste production. The sequence of municipal waste production in the last ten years tells that the average rate is 1,600

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tonnes a month. This figure indicates that the average population of Águilas, in function of waste production per capita, is about 43,000 inhabitants7.

In summer time, the production of waste rises until 2.5 tonnes, the double of production that in February8; this indicates that the population in summer surpass the 65,000 inhabitants.

The municipality gets four classes of differenced dumpsters in the street for the most typical fractions: glass, packages, paper and rest (mixture). Besides, Águilas has two ‘ecoparques’9 and one mobile one. However, because of the agriculture is the main occupation sector in Águilas (primary sector), our municipality needs an integrated centre for managing wastes.

2.5. Water and sewerage

• Water supply. The water supplier in Águilas is the company Hidrogea S.A. This company is responsible of the supplier or tap water, the sewage and the maintenance of the municipal wastewater treatment plant, and the whole maintenance of distribution and evacuation nets. Águilas gets 23,750 subscribers in the water distribution municipal service. From this figure, we know 22,000 subscribers belong to houses. In these terms, we may deduce that Águilas has a high second residence population.

7 For this calculation, we consider the estimation for 1.25 Kg/1 inhabitant/1 day 8 February is the month which is used to reference the blank in waste production. 9 Ecoparque is a facility where people can leave all those rests which aren´t admissible in the usual dumpsters.

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• Water consumption. The annual tap water average consumption in Águilas in 2017 has been around 2.4 Hm3. This number is risen in the summer months when it reaches 0.35 Hm3 per month, the double consumption that in February 2017 that got 0.175 Hm3. In the last year, the municipal tap water distribution service has bought 2,774,266 m3 for human consumption; from this number, 2,384,347 m3 were distributed in the municipality which indicates that the distribution net has a efficiency of 86%.

• Sewage treatment. Águilas has a sewer system with a waste water treatment plant since 1980. This treatment plant has suffered continuous modifications since its birth. All these modifications have improved the permeated quality and therefore and have given the possibility of using treated wastewater in public gardens irrigation, agriculture, streets washing, ... Recently, the Public Sanitation Entity in the Region of Murcia (ESAMUR), has announced the next construction of a new MBR (membrane biological reactor) that joined to the previous MBR10 and the conventional tertiary system will give 8,600 m3 of total flow.

10 The membrane biological reactor is a new methodology that, because of the reduced size of the membrane pore, gets a high quality recycled water.

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3. Climate Change Scenarios

3.1. Existing reports on Climate Change in the Municipality

Among the available data about historical events in Águilas, we get the following information:

- High probability flood plains in a 10 years period (Hydrographical Confederation of Segura) - Usual probability flood plains in a 50 years period (Hydrographical Confederation of Segura) - Maritime origin with an occasional or medium probability in a 100 years period floods (Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing and Environment ‘Mapama’) - Rainfalls (mm) (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Number of rainy days (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Duration of dry periods (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - 95 percentil of daily rainfall (mm) (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Maximum temperature (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Minimum temperature (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Number of warm days (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Number of warm nights (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Number of freezing days (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Heat waves duration (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Heating degrees days (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Cooling degrees days (Meteorology state agency ‘AEMET’) - Forest fires (Region of Murcia statistic website ‘CREM’)

To analyse the historical events that this municipality has suffered and its resilience to climate change and natural hazards, we have compiled the available information about these topics:

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3.2. Identification and description of climate change scenarios.

To make decisions on adaptation policies, it is paramount to gather data on key changes affecting climate variables and elements (e.g. rising sea levels). After that, it is necessary to analyse the potential consequences of this type of scenarios on existing activities in a specific territory or system.

3.2.1. Climate variables

Rainfall (mm) ✓ Number of rainy days ✓ Duration of dry periods ✓ Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) ✓ Maximum temperature ✓ Percentile 95 Tª max (ºC) ✓ Minimum temperature ✓ Percentile 5 Tª min (ºC) ✓ Number of warm days ✓ Number of warm nights ✓ Number of freezing days ✓ Heat waves duration ✓ Heating degree days ✓ Cooling degree days ✓ Forest fires ✓

3.2.2. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

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Earth) in the year 2100, ranging from 2.6 to 8.5 watts/m2. Given that RCP8.5 is the less optimistic scenario, we decided to work with this Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 8.5 to ensure the adaptation to climate change.

The four pathways ‘RCP’ include different scenarios in function of the current mitigation efforts: one based on important mitigation efforts to a very low enforcement level (RCP 2.6) scenario, two stabilization (RCP 4.5 6 RCP 6.0) scenarios and a very high greenhouse effect emissions scenario (RCP 8.5).

Despite the Paris Summit (COP21) agreements would derive to RCP 6.0 as the closest scenario, to evaluate the scenarios of climate change it has been chosen the RCP 8.5 that although it is more pessimistic, it will show the climatic tendencies to 2100 clearly.

3.2.3. Local projections using national tools

- Flood Plains Águilas doesn´t have rivers or permanent water courses in its limits. Nevertheless, in Águilas exists several ravines as ‘Las Culebras’, ‘El Charco11’, ‘Los Quiñoneros’ or ‘Elena ravine’ where several floods have occurred in the past. In addition, the strategical coastal position of Águilas may contribute to turn this municipality in a flood zone for a long period of time (100 years) due to the rising of the sea level.

11 ‘El Charco’ ravine is also known as ravine of ‘El Rubial’ due to its final course that go through the El Rubial population sector.

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- Precipitations The precipitation is one of the better indicators to predict the impact of the climate change over the territory. The state agency for meteorology offers the projections until 2100. It is based on the accumulated precipitation (mm/day) of rainfall, snow or hail.

Projection of rainfall in Águilas (mm/day)

This evolution predicts the effects of the climate change and its direct repercussion over the rainfalls in the municipality. The tendency is downward with an average of 0.25 mm in 2017 until 0.18 mm in 2100, range [0,08 – 0,30 mm].

Moreover, the ministry of environment, rural and marine medium, by the General Direction of Water asked for an exhaustive analysis about the evolution of annual and monthly average precipitations and their torrentiality. This analysis was denominated ‘Evaluation of the climate change impact over the water resources in natural regimen’, based on the evolution of three different indicators in two landscapes (A2 & B2 from IPCC, 2007) agree with several models of projection developed by the scientific community and accepted by IPCC.

These rainfall indicators are:

- Daily and monthly precipitation (PRE). - Daily maximum precipitation (PMX). - Quotient by up to 95% percentile daily rainfall and the annual PRE (R95T), which reflects how important the extreme precipitations are in the total of

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the year and its relationship with the torrentiality of the climate. More intense rainfall episodes in function of a higher relation of extreme precipitation over the total.

Considering the register of daily precipitations, it seems not giving information about torrentiality, which is calculated in litres per hour.

Besides, the application of several models of projection about the evolution of daily precipitation in the reference period (1961-1990) gives undervalued estimations respect the reality. In the same way, these indicators projections to 2100 year, in both chosen scenarios and agree to the different models, don´t provide conclusive results although they show increasing or decreasing tendencies outside of the chosen emissions scenario.

The report ends with, ‘despite a deficient performance of those prediction models, the marks come into view a rising torrential rains in short and long terms.

- Number of rainy days This is the number of days with higher than 1 mm precipitations. For 2017 it registered 33.25 rainy days, and the forecast for 2100 announce 22.85 rainy days, range [14.5-30 days].

Projection of number of rainy days in Águilas

The sequence of rainy days shows a slightly decreasing tendency, agreed with the reduction of total precipitations.

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The 95 percentile for daily precipitation is defined as that value over the 95% of daily precipitation values (for a period of time); it means, the higher volumes of daily precipitation in millimetres. Although this value is not a real torrential rainfall indicator12, the lack of marks for this rain make us to consider it.

Projection of 95 percentile for daily precipitation in Águilas

As other indicators, it doesn´t exist a high variation respect this parameter. In 2017 the 95 percentile of rain was in 3.63 mm; for 2100 it is expected an average of 3.17 for the 95 percentile, range [2.02 – 7.67 mm].

- Duration of dry period. It is defined as the maximum number of consecutive dry days in a determined period. It means, those days when precipitation was not up to 1 mm. The results are expressed in days.

12 A torrential rainfall indicator is expressed in mm/hour instead.

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Projection for the duration of dry periods in Águilas

The evolution of period of dry days is stable until 2100. In 2017 the average duration of these periods was 73.75 days; it is expected an average of 75 days in 2100, range [61-107.5 days].

- Maximum temperature. This is the air maximum temperature of the air taken at 2 metres over the land. It presents a constant increase until 27.47ºC , range [26.17-28.78ºC]. Two indicators have been chosen to express the variation for maximum temperature. The first of them reflects the variation of the average maximum temperature until 2100, offered by AEMET; the other is the variation of the 95 percentile for the daily maximum temperature. Furthermore, it is analysed the 95 percentile of the daily maximum temperature, which is defined as that value over the 95% of maximum temperatures in a determined period of time. It may observe an increase for the maximum temperatures in summer time. In 2017, this indicator was 21.62ºC and for 2100 it is expected an increase until 36.83ºC, range [34.5 – 39.08].

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Projection for average of the annual maximum temperature in Águilas

Projection for 95 percentile of daily maximum temperature in Águilas

- Minimum temperature. As same as maximum temperature, for the average of minimum temperature, it has been analysed the annual average of minimum temperature and the 5 percentil for the daily minimum temperature.

Projection for average of the annual minimum temperature in Águilas

The percentile 5 for the daily minimum temperatures, that value under the 5% of the minimum temperatures for a period of time are located. These temperatures in winter show an increase in the same way as the minimum temperatures along the year. In 2017 this value indicated 9.03ºC, and for 2100 it is expected an increase until 12.57ºC, range [11.52-13.64].

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Percentil 5 projection for daily minimum temperature in Águilas

- Number of warm days Those days in a period of time whose maximum temperature is higher than the temperature in the 90 percentile for a reference climatic period. Its tendency is also increasing.

Projection for number or warm days per year in Águilas

It is expected an important increase in the number of warm days per year. In 2017 this indicator was 51.78 days, and the forecast for 2100 is 112 days, according to the most optimistic analysis, and 144 for the most pessimistic, with an average located in the 126.89 days.

- Number of warm nights. Number of days in a period of time whose minimum temperature is upper than the 90 percentile for the reference period. As same as the warm days period, there is a increasing tendency for nights.

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Projection for number of days with warm nights in Águilas

An important increase for the number of warm nights is foreseen. While in 2017 this value indicated 51.22 days, the forecasts for 2100 mark a radical increase until 111 days for the most optimistic forecast and 127.11 days for the most pessimistic one, remarking an average of 127.11 days.

- Number of freezing days This indicator reflects the number of days when the minimum temperature is lower than 0ºC. Nowadays, this case is practically insignificant, and the forecast indicates a lower probability of this phenomenon until 2100, a decreasing tendency.

Projection of the number of freezing days in Águilas

- Duration of heat waves This indicator refers to how many of days has the longer heat wave. A heat wave is a period of, at least, 5 consecutive days with a higher maximum temperature than the 90 percentile of the reference period.

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The duration of heat waves marks a clearly increasing tendency, with projections to 2100 where the average duration of heat waves is 86.67 days, while in 2017 this value was 9.98 days.

Projection for the heat waves duration in Águilas

- Cooling degree days Following the Spinoni et al formula (2015), this indicator is defined as the addition of the difference between the daily average temperature and a guide temperature (26ºC) for all the days in a year. This value is proportional to the needs of cooling in a determined building in a specific territory. 푇 + 푇 퐺퐷 = 푇 − 푇 = 푚á푥 푚푖푛 − 26 26 푚 푑푖푎푟푖푎 26 2

Projection of the cooling degree days in Águilas

The tendency for this indicator in increasing, it indicates that climate will be warmer every year. In 2017 the cooling degree days indicator marked

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140,07ºC·day; for 2100 the projection indicates an average of 398.17ºC·day, range [244.2-618.93]ºC·day.

- Heating degree days This indicator is defined, according to Spinoni et al (2015) formula, as the addition of the difference between the daily average temperature and a model temperature (18.5ºC), for all the days of the year. This is proportional to the needs of heating in a determined building in a specific territory.

푇푚á푥 + 푇푚푖푛 퐺퐷 = 푇 − 푇 = − 18 18 푚 푑푖푎푟푖푎 18 2

Projection of the heating degree days in Águilas

The tendency is decreasing. When this indicator marked 508.82ºC·day in 2017, the average projection for 2100 is 160.73ºC·day, range [104.52- 221.50]ºC·day.

- Forest fires risk The evolution of forest fire in the past in Águilas reveals a changeable frequency. In 2010, 2012 and 2014, the fire affected forest surface was higher than 10 hectares, although no one had grave consequences.

Evolve of the number of forest fires in Águilas 200 200 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016

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Number of affected mountains 1,0 1,0 4,0 1,0 2,0 1,0 3,0 1,0 Lightnings 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 Negligences y accidents 1,0 1,0 2,0 1,0 1,0 0,0 2,0 0,0 Unknown causes 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 1,0 1,0 Total affected forest surface (Ha.) 0,1 0,5 15,6 0,8 23,1 0,2 10,5 0,1 Woody tree forest surface (Ha.) 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 Bushy forest surface (Ha.) 0,0 0,0 15,6 0,8 23,1 0,0 10,5 0,1 Herbacea (Ha.) 0,0 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

3.2.4. Indicators

The information obtained in the previous steps is compiled in the following table:

Indicator Average 2017 Projection 2100 Min Average Max Rainfalls (mm/day) 0.27 0.25 0.08 0.18 0.30 Number of rainy days (days) 34.19 33.25 14.50 22.85 30.00 Duration of dry period (days) 65.66 73.35 61.00 75.00 107.50 Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) 3.79 3.63 2.02 3.17 7.67 Maximum temperature (°C) 23.11 23.80 26.17 27.47 28.78 Percentile 95 Max. temperature 30.82 31.62 34.50 36.83 39.08 (°C) Minimum temperature (°C) 15.84 16.51 19.34 20.53 21.81 Percentile 5 Min. temperature (°C) 8.69 9.03 11.52 12.57 13.64 Number of warm days (days) 32.87 51.78 112.00 126.89 144.00 Number of warm nights (days) 32.4 51.22 111.00 127.11 139.00 Number of freezing days (days) 0 0 0 0 0 Change in duration of heat waves 9.98 15.00 34.00 86.67 112.00 (days) Heating degree days (°C·day) 583.51 508.8 104.5 160.73 221.50 2 2 Cooling degree days (°C·day) 103.51 140.0 244.2 398.17 618.93 7 0

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4. Climate Change Risks Assessment

For climate change hazards which apply to the municipality, include the following information:

Current Expected Expected Climate Hazard hazard risk change in change in Timeframe level intensity frequency Extreme heat Moderate Increase Increase Short term Extreme cold Low Decrease Decrease Long term Extreme precipitation Low Increase Decrease Current Floods Moderate No change No change Current Sea level rise Moderate Increase Increase Long term Droughts High Increase Increase Current Storms Moderate Decrease Decrease Short term Landslides Low No change No change Long term Forest Fires Low No change No change Long term

To identify the climate hazards that will affect the municipality the most, they have been categorized following the next punctuation:

Current hazard risk Expected change Expected change Timeframe (T) level (HRL) in intensity (CI) in frequency (CF) 1- Low 1- Decrease 1- Decrease 1- Long term 2- Moderate 2- No change 2- No change 2- Medium term 3- High 3- Increase 3- Increase 3- Short term 4- Current

Therefore, the climate hazards with grave consequences on the municipality are presented in the following picture:

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CLIMATE HAZARDS ON ÁGUILAS

Current hazard risk level Expected change in intensity Expected change in frequency Timeframe

EXTREME HEAT 2 3 3 3 EXTREME COLD 1 1 2 1 EXTREME PRECIPITATION 1 1 2 2 FLOODS 1 2 2 4 SEA LEVEL RISE 2 3 3 1 DROUGHTS 3 3 3 3 STORMS 2 1 1 3 LANDSLIDES 1 2 2 1 FOREST FIRES 1 2 2 1

5. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Assessment

5.1. Socio-economic vulnerabilities

Describe the socio-economic vulnerabilities of your territory (e.g. population composition, population density, economic situation) as well as the factors that tend to increase them.

Some examples of vulnerabilities are:

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Vulnerability Description

% sensitive population (elderly, The percentage of sensitive people to climate change compared young, single, unemployed) with the national average.

% of population who live in affected by flood, sea-level rise, burns, % population living in risky areas heatwaves, and dry zones.

% of areas not accessible for % of zones in the municipality where it is difficult to arrive different services services as fireguards and emergencies, among others.

Related to the tourism activities, agriculture, commerce, industry, Economic activity sensitive to CC fishery, aquiculture, …

5.2. Physical and Environmental Vulnerabilities

Some examples are:

Vulnerability Description

A significant part of the main urban nucleus and several urban areas Presence of affected coastal areas are in front of the sea (only separated of it by a promenade, a road or both)

Águilas count with several water courses which have water only in Presence of affected rivers case of torrents, ravines.

Transport network in risky areas Roads, railway, marina and ports.

Buildings in risky areas Buildings near the ravines and located at front of the sea.

% Old buildings Non-modified or non-restored buildings.

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Sea water and distribution and evacuation systems can be Water pollution affected, e.g. by a torrential rainfall.

Soil pollution Alteration of physical and chemical conditions,

Warm urban areas due to human activities: buildings, traffic, Urban Heat Islands overpopulation, …

Difficulty to access risky areas Those areas that can be isolated in case of torrential rainfalls, (emergencies) floods and sea level rise, among others.

Presence of forest Non-modified zones in the municipality with typical vegetation.

5.3. Vulnerabilities Assessment

Once all municipal’s vulnerabilities have been defined, it is necessary to evaluate them according to two parameters:

Adaptive capacity: The capacity for adaptation will be determined by available technical and scientific knowledge, as well as by the financial capacity to undertake adaptation actions.

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The range of values are:

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

1- Very low 1- Very low 5- Very low Assets’ exposure level to climate Vulnerability’s effects won’t cause The municipality's potential in change is very low, no hazards any effect in the municipality terms of adaptive capacity is very can affect the assets low, there are high difficulties to implement adaptation measures

2- Low 2- Low 4- Low Assets’ exposure level to climate Vulnerability’s effects will be The municipality's potential in change is low, some hazard can observed in the long term terms of adaptive capacity is low, slightly affect the assets but some actions can be implemented

3- Medium 3- Medium 3- Medium Assets are exposed to climate Vulnerability’s effects will be The municipality has the potential change by mean of one or more observed in the medium term to mitigate the effects of climate hazards change, but no action has been taken.

4- High 4- High 2- High Assets are highly exposed to Vulnerability’s effects will be The municipality has undertaken climate change by mean of one or observed in the short term some basic measures to reduce its more hazards vulnerability to climate change, but there is still a great work to do.

5- Very high 5- Very high 1- Very high Assets are very highly exposed to Vulnerability’s effects are already The municipality has resources climate change by mean of one or visible. and actions have been taken to more hazards reduce the impact.

The results obtained in this vulnerability assessment are presented in the following chart:

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VULNERABILITIES IN ÁGUILAS

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

PRESENCE OF FOREST 4 4 4 DIFFICULTY TO ACCESS RISKY AREAS … 3 4 2 URBAN HEAT ISLANDS 2 3 3 SOIL POLLUTION 2 2 3 WATER POLLUTION 2 2 3 % OLD BUILDINGS 3 4 4 BUILDINGS IN RISKY AREAS 5 5 4 TRANSPORT NETWORK IN RISKY AREAS 3 3 3 PRESENCE OF AFFECTED RIVERS 3 4 4 PRESENCE OF AFFECTED COASTAL AREAS 4 5 4 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SENSITIVE TO CC 3 4 4 % OF AREAS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR SERVICES 2 3 4 % POPULATION LIVING IN RISKY AREAS 3 5 4 % SENSITIVE POPULATION (ELDERLY, … 4 5 4

6. Impacts expected in the municipality

6.1. Identification of key sectors

The municipality of Águilas have identified the sectors that will be affected (positively or negatively) by climate change. Those sectors are:

Sector How is Climate Change going to affect it?

Negatively (mainly those which be located in the coastal line and Buildings around the water courses

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It will be affected negatively in relation to a higher consumption Energy directly related with a high use of cooling systems. The climate change will affect negatively to this sector respect a low availability of water (decreasing rainfall rate) and a higher demand Water due to the a vast number of days with heat wave. Nevertheless, Águilas will improve the uses of recycled waste water in several activities as agriculture and gardens water. Negatively from the point of view of the limited resources for Land use planning developing the territory (water, energy, transport, heat, dry, …)

Civil protection and Both of them will be affected negatively by climate change in the sense of a higher amount of callings to the emergency services by emergencies heat strokes, etc, .. It will be negatively affected by climate change, for instance, due to Tourism an increasingly temperature and heat waves, tourists will look for different destinations for their holidays.

6.2. Expected impacts

For all sectors identified in 6.1, prioritising risks and vulnerabilities that obtained a major score, different impacts have been defined.

Associate at least three vulnerabilities to each climate change risk in order to define the impacts. For example:

Sector Climate risk Vulnerability Expected impact

Floods Buildings in risky areas Damages in buildings

Buildings Floods Difficulty to access risky areas Damages in communication via Presence of affected coastal Sea level rise Damages in buildings areas Buildings in risky areas Disappearance of residential areas Extreme heat Economic activity sensitive to Disappearance of economic Land use planning climate change activity areas Transport network in risky Cancellation of communication Floods areas via Faults in hydraulic Storms Water pollution infrastructures Water Economic activity sensitive to Loss of primary sector economic Droughts climate change activities

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% Sensitive Population Increase in energetic demand % Old buildings Increase in energetic demand Extreme heat Urban heat islands Increase in energetic demand Energy Economic activity sensitive to Increase in energetic demand climate change Economic activity sensitive to Increase in water artificial Droughts climate change production Increase of the number of Extreme heat Population living in risky areas emergencies Civil protection and Increase of the number of Floods Population living in risky areas emergencies emergencies Transport network in risky Increase of the number of Storms areas emergencies Economic activity sensitive to Alteration of the summer Extreme heat climate change periods Tourism Damages in beaches, Sea level rise Difficulty to access risky areas promenades and coastal buildings

To valuate expected impacts according to their effect on the municipality, the following score table have been proposed:

Likelihood of Occurrence Expected Impact Level Timeframe

1- Unlikely 1- Low 1- Long term 2- Possible 2- Moderate 2- Medium term 3- Likely 3- High 3- Short term 4- Current

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EXPECTED IMPACTS IN ÁGUILAS

Likelyhood of occurrance Expected impact level Timeframe

DAMAGES IN BEACHES, PROMENADE AND … 2 2 1

ALTERATION OF SUMMER PERIOD 2 2 2

INCREASE OF NUMBER OF EMERGENCIES 3 2 3

INCREASE IN WATER DESALINIZATION 3 3 4

INCREASE IN ENERGETIC DEMAND 3 3 4

LOSS OF PRIMARY SECTOR ACTIVITIES 3 2 3

FAULTS IN WATER INFRASTRUCTURES 3 1 3

CANCELLATION OF COMMUNICATION VIA 3 1 3

DISSAPPEARANCE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY … 2 3 1

DISSAPPEARANCE OF RESIDENTIAL AREAS 2 3 1

DAMAGES IN COMMUNICATION VIA 2 2 3

DAMAGES IN BUILDINGS 2 2 2

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LIFE ADAPTATE LIFE16 CCA/ES/000049

The Working Group in the Municipality of Lorca is formed by:

Name Position

Mª Saturnina Martínez Councilor of urbanism and environment of Town Hall of Lorca Pérez Councilor of citizen participation of Town Hall of Lorca Francisco Javier Pelegrín

Sustainable development section, urbanization technical services, Francisco S. López Zarco urban planning works and environment of Town Hall of Lorca

Enrique Berruezo Technical architect of the urbanization, construction and urban planning technical services of Town Hall of Lorca Escribano Rosa J. Bermejo Sánchez Technician of citizen participation of Town Hall of Lorca Adelaida Jordán Marín Administrative of Town Hall of Lorca Ángeles González Administrative of Town Hall of Lorca Vicente

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1.2. Identification of Climate Change Adaptation Stakeholders

Different types of stakeholders that must be involved in the Adaptation Plan development have been identified. The Stakeholder List in the Municipality of Lorca is formed by:

Name Organization Sector Competences

Regional Promotion and Antonio Confederation Business development of the García Díaz of Business business sector Organizations of Lorca

Domingo Federation of Farming Advice Cooperatives of Llamas Murcia /Forestry Fernández Alfonso Eliseo Irrigation Farming Water management

Montiel Community /Forestry Guilabert

Miguel Plazas Federation of Associations Andreo Promotion of of Neighbors, Consumers Third sector environmental and and Users of social objectives Lorca and Region of Alto Guadalentín

Ángel Third sector Promotion of Torregrosa Workers' environmental and Carreño commissions social objectives Francisca UGT Third sector Promotion of Padilla Worker´s environmental and Navarro commissions social objectives José Antonio Mayor (80´s) Politician Advice Gallego López

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Mercedes Town Hall of Local Environment Pérez Madrid Lorca Administracion Francisco Town Hall of Local Sustainable López Zarco Lorca Administracion development Antonio Town Hall of Local New Technologies in Public Infrastructure Galindo Lorca Administracion Galindo Cándido Consejería de Regional Environment Gabarrón Agricultura de Administracion Llamas Murcia Miguel Miñano Clúster Services Technical assistance to public and private Núñez Citizem entities

Víctor Serrano Draco Services Technical assistance to public and private Conesa Sistemas entities Francisco LIMUSA Services Management of the municipal public Javier service of garbage Martínez collection and street cleaning Enrique Town Hall of Town Hall of Urban mobility Berruezo Lorca Lorca Escribano José Antonio Caixa Bank Finance Fiancial work Romero Rodríguez Hilario Lázaro Lawyer Services Advice Quesada Manuel Jódar Manuel Jódar Finance Consulting and comprehensive advice Martínez Asesores to companies, S.L.P. institutions and individuals

Pilar Lorente Town Hall of Local

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López Lorca Administracion Fernando Promotion´s Regional Economic Promotion / Regional Planning Sánchez Lara Institute Administracion

José Antonio Técnica Services Development of mitigation and / or García García Nogalte adaptation solutions María Dolores Town Hall of Town Hall of Public Health Parra Muñoz Lorca Lorca Rosa Bermejo Town Hall of Town Hall of Citizen participation

Sánchez Lorca Lorca

It is suggested to form and Advisory Board engaging the stakeholders to get more detailed information about the municipality and how it is exposed to climate change. Meetings and surveys are desirable.

1.3. Financing and resources

HUMAN RESOURCES

The human resources that the Town Hall of Lorca, will need to carry out the process of adaptation to climate change, will be composed mainly by municipal technicians attached to the Life Adaptate Project.

However, the Town Hall of Lorca, may require the intervention of officials of the various municipal areas, in order to submit it to the study, evaluation or information that is needed: planning service, service activities and urban planning works, technical works, project area ....

The execution of the actions will be carried out through own resources or, where appropriate, through external contracting if the Town Hall of Lorca, doesn´t have the necessary means and resources.

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FINANCING

The financing of the actions may be carried out through:

- Own founds - Subsidies - Own founds % and subsidies %

1.4. Internal and external communication

The participatory process of the Life Adaptate aims to establish mechanisms through which a design that meets the demands and needs of Lorca society and the requirements of the Project is achieved.

For this, the involvement of the Social Council of Lorca, the highest citizen participation body of the municipality, has been sought and, at the same time, it has taken into account the internal participation of municipal technicians and citizens as a whole.

The Participatory Process is structured in three different areas of work: internal participation, institutional participation and direct participating with citizens.

Internal participation refers to all the analysis of the previous participatory process (identification of interested parties and analysis of the added value of these stakeholders to the Project, analysis of the profile of the interested parties and search of the appropriate methodology in the participatory process, identification of municipal channels to encourage and communicate the participatory process and dissemination of the participatory process).

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The institutional participation refers to the working groups to be held within the Social Council in which the main proposals and validation of the same must be obtained.

The participation of citizens as a whole refers to the possibility of participating of citizens through the municipal website in the Project contributing suggestions to it.

The same communication and participation channels will be used to offer the return information on the results of the project.

2. Relevant information of [Municipality] in terms of Climate Change

2.1. Geographical situation of the municipality

• Geographic description.

The city of Lorca is located in the southeast of the peninsula and in the extreme southwest of the Murcia´s Region

The city is located in the region of “Alto Guadalentín” about 70 km south-west of Murcia, capital of the province and Murcia´s Region. The “High Guadalentín” is a área of the Region of Murcia (Spain), whose capital is Lorca.

The region covers a total of 2072 miles2, a very extensive territory in the west of Murcia´s province.

Lorca is the third city in population of the Region, with a population of approx. 90,000 inhabitants and the second municipality, in extension, of Spain.

• Location maps.

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• Buildings

The landscape of Lorca presents mountains, orchard and city, as well as the multitude of intermediate situations that can occur between these extremes, combined with the presence of a river.

This gives the city a great landscape wealth, with neighborhoods adapted to a rugged terrain, periphery combined with orchards, avenues with high-rise buildings, urban facades along a river, etc.

The urban revolution of the nineteenth century: The first part of this century will be a period of stagnation that was enhanced by the impoverishment suffered by the population of the city, the war of independence and various epidemics, being often described as a city in ruins.

However, on the part of the consistory works were carried out in order to improve the welfare and its transit.

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The second half of the century began to improve the situation, since many plots of land, obtained after the confiscation, were acquired by private individuals, enhancing the process of urban growth.

One of the public works that will have great importance in the urban configuration will be the construction of the Guadalentín Bridge, finished in 1879; another would be the opening of the road from Murcia to Granada in 1884, or the construction of the War Theater.

The urbanism of the twentieth century has a before and after 1953, since the dynamics was clearly different.

In the first half of the century urban growth is almost zero, while after that year the increase is large and the city acquires its current disposition. In this first half there is the transfer of the San José cemetery to its current location, and the construction and subsequent urbanization of the infantry barracks and its surroundings.

The growth, scarce, will focus on the areas of San Mateo and San Cristóbal, while the rest of the parishes will see how the hamlet will remain unchanged. It will be in the second half of the century when it is conferred the elongated appearance that the city has today, due to the axis that determines the national road 340 from Murcia to Granada. This led at first to the promotion of the ends of the city, with San José and San Cristóbal, in addition to the San Diego, Los Angeles, La Viña and San Antonio areas.

On the other hand, a second axis that would be the road of eagles has joined the industrial estate with the housing area between the Oval and the New Bridge. This produced a linear growth also in a vertical direction.

• Existing plans

The General Plan of Urban Planning (PGOU), in force since 2003, has been a useful tool for the growth of the city in the last decade, but has also demonstrated its limitations to create a quality urban environment and to

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respond to current needs, very different after the crisis experienced since 2008.

There are planned urbanizable spaces that, if materialized, would suppose a conflict with the landscape, such as the northern zone of San Cristóbal or the western zone, between the highway and high neighborhoods or La Viña, where an uneven terrain makes it difficult to imagine a building of up to four heights as allowed by the current general plan. And on the other hand there are opportunity spaces to make more friendly the accesses of the city that are destined to the construction of large residential blocks.

2.2. Urban mobility

• Type of vehicles

Lorca has a fleet of 69,621 vehicles, of which 61% are passenger cars, 17% motorcycles and mopeds and 14.4% trucks, figures very similar to the regional average proportions.

However, the proportion of trailers and tractors is greater, since it represents more than 8% of the total vehicle fleet, due to its important agricultural activity.

Regarding the type of fuel used by vehicles, in Lorca there is a significant proportion of vehicles that use diesel, to a greater extent than in the regional average.

• Uses of vehicles.

The motorization rate has experienced a rapid growth in Lorca in the last ten years.

At present, the municipal rate of vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants is 687 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants, which has meant an increase of 11.5% in this period, while the regional average has increased by 5%. In this way, Lorca

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has gone from having a lower rate to the regional average to overcome it in recent years.

• Existing Mobility Plans.

Lorca has a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan PMUS made in 2017 and in line with the objectives of the Sustainable Economy Law regarding sustainable mobility, Lorca's PMUS considers essential objectives to achieve a more sustainable, flexible, shared mobility system, safe and competitive so all the measures that make up the plan will focus, individually or as a whole, towards the achievement of these five objectives.

In addition, the challenges and needs highlighted in the Diagnosis support this approach and allow the specific objectives of the SUMP to be developed and quantified.

2.3. Environmental analysis

• Green spaces: extension, distribution, maintenance, uses.

Lorca, currently has about 707.853 m² of green areas, and approximately 26,000 units of trees.

In addition, it has about 75 children's areas within the municipality and 15 areas of healthy elements.

Actually the company “Acciona Environment” is in charge of the maintenance of green spaces throughout the urban area of Lorca, for a period of six years.

• Air quality.

The City of Lorca, in terms of air quality, follows the strategy designed in the Air Quality Plan of the Murcia´s Region, prepared by the General Directorate of Environment of the Autonomous Community of the Mucia´s Region.

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Said Plan has been financed by FEDER FUNDES AND FUNDS OF THE MINISTRY, AUTONOMOUS COMMUNITY OF MURCIA AND TOWN HALLS.

The Plan consists of a diagnosis, a methodology, general objectives with horizontal measures and specific objectives with sectoral or specific measures.

Also, this includes short-term objectives designed as urgent for episodic situations.

On the other hand, there is also a protocol for municipal action in environmental episodes of pollution of NITROGEN OXIDE and PARTICLES IN SUSPENSION, also prepared by the General Directorate of Environment of the Autonomous Community of the Region of Murcia and a support document such as the Guide to Good Practices on Air Quality prepared by the Spanish Network of Cities for Climate, of the Spanish Federation of Municipalities and Provinces, with the technical assistance of Proymasa.

In Lorca there is a measuring station for air quality which is in the deputation of “Barranco Hondo.”

MAIN CONTAMINANTS THAT AFFECT THE REGION OF MURCIA, according to the Air Quality Plan of the Region of Murcia: LORCA

The main pollutants that affect the Region of Murcia are:

• OZONE: In general, the formation of ozone is favored in suburban and rural areas very close to the city, being lower on the contrary in urban areas. The main zones affected by ozone in the Region are: Alcantarilla, Lorca, downtown area, La Aljorra on the coast of Mar Menor and Caravaca zone north.

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• PM10 PARTICLES IN SUSPENSION: areas mainly affected by the intrusion of Saharan dust, scarce vegetation, specific forest fires, road traffic. It occurs in the main road axes, especially in large urban agglomerations such as Cartagena, Murcia, followed by Lorca and Alcantarilla. • NO2 NITROGEN DIOXIDE: It occurs in urban agglomerations, where traffic is the most responsible: fossil fuels. • In Lorca the limit value is not exceeded.

• Level of air pollution.

ATMOSPHERIC CONTAMINATION LEVEL https://sinqlair.carm.es/calidadaire/

The Air Quality Plan contemplates the existence of the SINQLAIR program, to be able to check the status of air quality in the Region. It is a similar system to the weather forecast.

EXAMPLE: STATE AIR QUALITY

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2.4. Urban waste

• Municipal waste management.

The law, establishes that it will be competition of the City councils the service of road cleaning, of collection and treatment of waste.

The City of Lorca, agreed to determine as a management system of the municipal public service of garbage collection and road cleaning, the direct management by the company in the form of a corporation, being called LIMUSA.

Waste collection and road cleaning

The urban solid waste collection service is intended to empty the containers that house the domestic garbage bag.

The daily garbage collection service is provided daily for the urban center, 365 days a year. In districts it is held three times a week and in cycles of alternate days.

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In addition, LIMUSA makes available to the citizen a collection service for domestic appliances one day a week with prior notice to the municipal company in the urban area and a service in districts also once a week. In order to meet the rest of the demand without a schedule, the contribution area has also been enabled in the clean point of the Waste Management Center.

Road cleaning and waste collection pursues the urban sanitation of Lorca: manual and mechanical sweeping, manual and mechanical washing, mechanical irrigation, mechanical scrubbing, maintenance of urban furniture, collection of batteries, bulky collection, container washing, collection of excrement canines It also includes the collection of containers of organic waste and selective collection: blue container (paper and cardboard), yellow (packaging) and green (glass)

WASTE MANAGEMENT CENTER OF LORCA

It is located in the district of Barranco Hondo Lorca and has two million square meters.

It is the center, where the waste generated by the population is discharged, also ensuring the recovery of all recyclable material.

The waste management center has hosted two environmental projects such as the biogas plant, for the transformation of gases from the sealing of the landfill vessel into energy, as well as the pilot plant of the European project Metabioresor, for waste disposal from the livestock activity and the activity of the City Council: rest of pruning and branches.

Latest investments for the modernization of the Waste Management Center of Lorca

- Improvement and adaptation of the Lorca waste treatment plant PHASE I Treatment line of the remaining fraction - PHASE II Refining line for compost.

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- Improvement of classification operations and biological treatment in Lorca urban solid waste treatment plant

- New cell number 3 of landfill in the Waste Management Center that multiplies by three the capacity to house the non-recyclable waste of Lorca. As of 2019 it will be in operation.

2.5. Water and sewerage

• Water supply.

Aguas de Lorca, is the joint venture that manages the Integral Water Cycle in the municipality of Lorca from 1998-2048. (51% Lorca City Council and 49% AGBAR Group)

Services:

- Capture - Treatment - Distribution - Sewerage - Debugging

The Supply of Drinking Water to the Lorca Term of 1,675 km2 is made through 19 intakes from the Mancomunidad de los Canales del Taibilla

It is divided into three independent hydraulic zones: Lorca´s High Áreas, and districts, and the coast.

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Since the takeover that the Commonwealth has in the municipality of Cehegín, water is supplied to the districts of Avilés, Doña Inés, Zarzadilla de Totana, La Paca, Zarcilla de Ramos, Torrealvilla and Zúñiga.

• Water consumption.

According to the data provided by the mixed company Aguas de Lorca, the average daily consumption of water per inhabitant in Lorca is 180.6 liters in 2016.

• Sewerage.

The law,establishes that the Town Councils will be obliged to provide the service of sewage and water treatment.

The Lorca sewerage system has 417 km of sanitation collectors, 8 wastewater pumping stations and 10 sewage treatment plants.

Through the Integral Plan of Sanitation of Murcia´s Region, the regional government, has made gradual (since 2008), given the large extension of the municipality of Lorca, a major investment of hydraulic infrastructure in the municipality of Lorca, to try take the sanitation service and purification of domestic water in areas where it did not exist. (financed by 80% by the Cohesion Fund of the European Union, and by own funds of the Community by 20%)

3. Climate Change Scenarios

3.1. Existing reports on Climate Change in the Municipality

In order to analyse the historical events that the municipality has suffered and its resilience to climate change and natural hazards, available information on these topics have been compiled:

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Title Author Year Description

Study of definition of strategies for This document is composed of an economic extensive compilation of development and information about Lorca, whose employment, 2015- analysis will help to better TOWN HALL LORCA improve the 2025 understand the reality that the quality of life and municipality is currently welfare in the experiencing in numerous municipality of aspects. Lorca

It is a study that aims to identify the landscape qualities of the city of Lorca and its surroundings, that is, its cultural, botanical, Quality Plan for geographical, architectural and the Urban TOWN HALL LORCA 2015 Landscape of urbanistic values. Once identified, Lorca it is about preserving these qualities so that they remain in time, and to improve them as much as possible to obtain their full potential The Sustainable Urban Mobility Sustainable urban Plan, will become a technical mobility plan of TOWN HALL LORCA 2017 planning tool to improve mobility the Town Hall of in the city, giving greater Lorca prominence to the pedestrian

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The Integrated Sustainable Urban Development Strategies (DUSI) are the instrument through which 5% of the ERDF resources will be executed. In the case of Spain, the budget allocated for this purpose is 1,000 million euros.

Integrated The elaboration of the strategy 2014- sustainable urban TOWN HALL LORCA must have citizen participation development 2020 from the beginning. It is a strategy bottom-up approach, in this way, the European Commission demands that the role of citizens and local agents be reinforced in the design and development of strategies and throughout all phases of their development and implementation.

Sustainable Energy Action 2013- Commitment to reduce energy TOWN HALL LORCA Plan 2020 consumption within the PACT OF

THE MAYORS

3.2. Identification and description of climate change scenarios.

3.2.1. Climate variables

The first step is to select the key climate variables for the municipality, a step that is closely related to the climatic scenarios identified in the reports compiled in point 3.1.

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Rainfall (mm) ✓

Number of rainy days ✓

Duration of dry periods ✓

Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) ✓

Maximum temperature ✓

Minimum temperature ✓

Number of warm days ✓

Number of warm nights ✓

Number of freezing days ✓

Heat waves duration ✓

Heating degree days ✓

Cooling degree days ✓

Forest fires ✓ Other (please specify)

3.2.2. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

The Fifth Report establishes four emission scenarios, which are the so- called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 y RCP8.5. These pathways are known for their total radiative forcing (energy reaching the Earth) in the year 2100, ranging from 2.6 to 8.5 watts/m2. Given that RCP8.5 is the less optimistic scenario, we decided to work with this Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 in order to ensure the adaptation to climate change.

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3.2.3. Local projections using national tools

In order to evaluate the possible risks that may involve a certain vulnerability for the municipality of Lorca, we have analyzed the data available through the different sources, which can provide information to identify the most representative risks for the municipality. Among the available data, the following have been selected, indicating their source in parentheses:

• Flood zones with high probability in a period of 10 years (Civil Protection)

• Flood zones with frequent probability in a period of 50 years (Civil Protection)

• Flooding areas with average or occasional probability of maritime origin in a period of 100 years (Mapama)

• Precipitation (mm) (AEMET)

• Number of rainy days (AEMET)

• Duration of dry periods (AEMET) • Percentile 95 of daily precipitation (mm) (AEMET)

• Maximum temperature (AEMET)

• Minimum temperature (AEMET)

• Number of warm days (AEMET)

• Number of warm nights (AEMET)

• Number of freezing days (AEMET)

• Heat waves duration (AEMET)

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• Heating day grades (AEMET)

• Degrees day refrigeration (AEMET)

• Forest fires produced (CREM) The prediction of climatic indicators has been carried out using the most representative studies existing in the international bibliography. These studies are:

- BCC-CSM1-1 (AR5): Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model, version 1.1 (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5) - BCC-CSM 1-1-m (AR5): Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model, version 1.1 con resolución moderada (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5) - IPSL-CM5A-MR (AR5): Institute Pierre Simon Laplace – 5th Phase of the Coupled Model – Medium Resolution (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5) - MIROC5 (AR5): Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, con resolución estándar (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5) - MIROC-ESM-CHEM (AR5): Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate – Earth System Model – Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Version (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5) - MRI-CGCM3 (AR5): Meteorological Research Institute – Coupled General Circulation Model 3 (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5) - BCC-CSM1-1 (AR5_SDSM): Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model, version 1.1 (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5 siguiendo un Método Estadístico de Reducción de Escala) - BCC-CSM1-1-m (AR5_SDSM): Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model, version 1.1 con resolución moderada (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5 siguiendo un Método Estadístico de Reducción de Escala)

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- CSIRO-Mk3.6 (AR5_SDSM): Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation – Mark 3.6 version (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5 siguiendo un Método Estadístico de Reducción de Escala) - IPSL-CM5A-LR (AR5_SDSM): Institute Pierre Simon Laplace – 5th Phase of the Coupled Model – Low Resolution (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5 siguiendo un Método Estadístico de Reducción de Escala) - IPSL-CM5A-MR (AR5_SDSM): Institute Pierre Simon Laplace – 5th Phase of the Coupled Model – Medium Resolution (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5 siguiendo un Método Estadístico de Reducción de Escala) - MIROC-ESM-CHEM (AR5_SDSM): Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate – Earth System Model – Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Version (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5 siguiendo un Método Estadístico de Reducción de Escala) - MIROC5 (AR5_SDSM): Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, con resolución estándar (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5 siguiendo un Método Estadístico de Reducción de Escala) - MRI-CGCM3 (AR5_SDSM): Meteorological Research Institute – Coupled General Circulation Model 3 (de acuerdo con el Assessment Report 5 siguiendo un Método Estadístico de Reducción de Escala)

Level of emissions that is maintained in the following years of this century, with the horizon set at 2100. These are the so-called Representative Concentration Trajectories (RCP, for its acronym in English). These are defined by an equivalent increase in total solar radiation for the year 2100, defined as Radiative Forcing (FR), which ranges between

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2.6 W / m2 (equivalent to a concentration of 421 ppm of CO2 in 2100) and 8, 5 W / m2 (equivalent to a concentration of 936 ppm of CO2 in 2100).

The four RCP trajectories comprise different scenarios based on the mitigation efforts put in place: a scenario based on significant mitigation efforts leading to a very low level of forcing (RCP2.6), two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and a scenario with a very high level of GHG emissions (RCP8.5).

Although the agreements of the Paris summit (COP21) would derive in a scenario closer to the RCP6.0, for the evaluation of the climate change scenarios, the more pessimistic trajectory RCP8.5 was chosen in order to show more clearly the climatic trends from here to 2100.

3.2.4. Flooding Áreas

The municipal term of Lorca lodges the rivers, Viznaga, Turrilla, Vélez, Luchena and Guadalentín or Sangonera, in addition to numerous ramblas like the one of Nogalte.

In recent decades, these rivers have suffered significant floods, which has caused flooding and serious material and human damage, which highlights the flood in the ravine Nogalte 1973.

As a coastal municipality, it also has areas likely to suffer floods of maritime origin.

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Flood zones with high probability (Time = 10 years)

Flooding areas with frequent probability (T = 50 years)

Precipitation

It is one of the indicators that most significantly reflect the impact of climate change on the territories. AEMET offers the local projections of this indicator until 2100. This projection is based on the accumulated rainfall in one day, in any of its forms (rain, snow, hail, etc.) and expressed in mm / day.

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Projection of the evolution in the volume of rainfall in Lorca

The evolution of this indicator allows us to observe the reduced impact that climate change is going to have on rainfall in the municipality, which is already low. Its tendency is to the downside. While in the year 2017 the average daily rainfall was 0.49 mm, in the year 2100 the estimated average is 0.43 mm, with a range of 0.22 mm and 0.71 mm.

However, the Ministry of the Environment, Rural and Marine Affairs, through the General Directorate of Water, entrusts CEDEX (Center for Studies and Experimentation of Public Works in 2017) with an exhaustive study to analyze the evolution of annual and monthly rainfall This study, called the Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Natural Regime, analyzes the evolution of three different indicators in two different emissions scenarios (A2 and B2 of the IPCC's AR4, of 2007), and according to different projection models developed by the scientific community and accepted by the IPCC, these indicators are:

• Daily and monthly rainfall (PRE)

• Maximum daily rainfall (PMX)

• Quotient between the daily precipitations above the 95% percentile and the annual PRE (R95T), which reflects the weight of extreme rainfall in

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the annual total and would be related to the torrential climate. More intense rainfall events would be expected as this ratio of extreme rainfall increases over the total.

Taking into account that rainfall records are made for daily periods, these observations do not provide information on the rainfall torrentiality, which are measured in liters per hour or by x hours.

In addition, the application of the different models of projection on the evolution of the daily precipitations during the period of reference, included between 1961 and 1990, and on which there are empirical observations, offers underestimated estimations with respect to the reality. Similarly, the projections of these indicators towards 2100 in the two chosen scenarios and according to the different models, do not offer conclusive results, but show increasing or decreasing trends regardless of the chosen emissions scenario.

The report concludes that, despite the poor performance of these prediction models, the observations allow to see an increase in the torrential rains in the medium and long term.

Number of rainy days

The indicator is defined as the number of days in a period of time whose precipitation is greater than 1 mm. If in 2017 the indicator stood at 46.27 days of rain per year, in 2100 the prediction is of an average of 36.02 days of rain, in a range of between 20.33 and 62.22 days.

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Projection of the number of rainy days in Lorca

The number of rainy days, already very scarce, shows a decreasing trend, somewhat higher than the decrease in average daily rainfall.

The 95th percentile of daily precipitation (mm) is defined as the value below which are 95% of the daily precipitation values of a period of time, that is, the highest daily precipitation volumes.

The results are shown in mm. Although this value can not be taken as an indicator of torrential rains (which are usually measured in mm / h and not mm / d), the absence of more appropriate data requires interpreting it as an indicator of torrential rains.

Projection of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation in Lorca

This parameter experiences a slight increasing trend. In the year 2017 the 95th percentile stood at 6.76 mm, and in the year 2100 an average 95 percentile of 8.91 mm is expected, in a range between 2.80 and 28.13 mm.

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Duration of the dry period

It is defined as the maximum number of consecutive "dry days" in a period of time, that is, days whose precipitation did not exceed the threshold of 1 mm. The results are shown in number of days

Projection of the duration duration of dry periods in Lorca

The evolution of the periods of dry days increases continuously until the year 2100. In the year 2017 the average duration was 49.56 days, in 2100 an average duration of 62.88 days is expected, in a range of 44 , 89 and 94.56 days.

Maximum temperature

To reflect the information on the variation of the maximum temperature, two indicators have been selected: first, AEMET offers information on the variation of the average maximum temperature up to the year 2100, on the other hand, the indicator corresponding to the 95th percentile variation of the maximum daily temperature.

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Indicative map of the maximum annual average temperature

The maximum temperature, defined as the air temperature at 2 meters above the average maximum daily floor, shows a constant increase. In 2017, the value of the indicator was 21.68 ° C and in 2100 it is expected an average increase to 26.70 ° C, a value that is within a range of 23.70 ° C and 29.68 ° C.

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Projection of the maximum annual average temperature in Lorca

On the other hand, if the indicator of the 95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature is analyzed, defined as the value under which 95% of the maximum temperatures of a period of time are found, it can be observed that the maximum temperatures in the period summer with higher temperatures present an increase similar to the average maximum temperatures throughout the year. If in 2017 the value of the indicator was 32.67 ° C, in 2100 it is expected to increase on average to 39.41 ° C, a value that is situated in a range of 33.10 ° C and 43.21 ° C .

Projection of the 95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature in Lorca

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Minimum temperature

As with the maximum temperature, for the average temperature, the minimum average annual temperature indicators and the 5th percentile of the minimum daily temperature have been analyzed. The indicator that reflects the minimum annual average temperature shows a constant increase since 2017, where its value was from 9.55 ° C to 2100, where an average value of 13.56 ° C is estimated, in a range of temperatures between 11 , 75 ° C and 15.17 ° C.

Average annual minimum temperature projection in Lorca

Secondly, if the indicator of the 5th percentile of the daily minimum temperature is analyzed, defined as the value under which 5% of the minimum temperatures of a period of time are found, it can be observed that the minimum temperatures in the period Winter season with lower temperatures show an increase similar to the average minimum temperatures throughout the year. If in 2017 the value of the indicator was 1.75 ° C, in 2100 it is expected to increase on average to 5.07 ° C, a value that is situated in a range of 3.21 ° C and 6.51 ° C .

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Projection of the 5th percentile of the minimum daily temperature in Lorca

Number of warm days

The number of warm days, defined as the number of days in a period of time whose maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile of a reference climate period, also shows an increasing trend.

Projection of the number of warm days in Lorca

It is expected a significant increase in the number of warm days, if in 2017 this indicator had a value of 52.41 days, the predictions for the year 2100 grow greatly, are at 110.33 days according to the most optimistic analysis, until the 137 days in the case of the most pessimistic, with an average of 125.37 days. All this in the horizon of the year 2100.

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Number of warm nights

The number of warm nights, defined as the number of days in a period of time whose minimum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile of a reference climate period, presents, as well as warm days, an increasing continuous trend

Projection of the number of warm nights in Lorca

It is expected a significant increase in the number of warm nights, if in 2017 this indicator had a value of 51.78 days, the predictions for the year 2100 grow significantly, are at 113.67 days according to the most optimistic analysis, up to 139 days in the case of the most pessimistic, with an average of 127.48 days. All this in the horizon of the year 2100.

Number of nights with frost

The indicator reflects the number of days in which a minimum temperature below 0 ° C is reached. This indicator had an average value of 7.26 days per year in the year 2017. For the year 2100 this indicator is reduced to 1.07 days of average value and is in a range between 0 days and 7.33 days.

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Therefore, it can be said that, in the future, the frost days in the municipality of Lorca will be practically non-existent.

Duration of heat waves

This indicator is defined as the number of days of the longest heat wave, defining a heat wave as a period of at least 5 consecutive days with a maximum temperature higher than the 90th percentile of the reference period. The changes are expressed in days with respect to the reference period.

Projection of the duration of heat waves in Lorca

The duration of heat waves presents a clearly upward trend, with projections in 2100 that offer values from 31.67 to 109.67 days, with an average of 81.81 days. In 2017, the average value was 17.26 days.

Degrees day of refrigeration

The cooling day degrees (° C • day) are defined following the formula of Spinoni et al (2015), as the sum, for all days of the year, of the

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difference between the average daily temperature and a reference temperature (a often the 26 ° C is used). This indicator is proportional to the cooling needs of a specific building in a specific territory.

푇푚á푥 + 푇푚푖푛 퐺퐷26 = 푇푚 푑푖푎푟푖푎 − 푇26 = − 26 2

Projection of the refrigeration day degrees in Lorca

The tendency to increase in the degree days of refrigeration, indicates that the climate will be increasingly hot. If in 2017 this indicator stood at 140.99 ° C • day, in 2100 the average projection is 433.05 ° C • day, in a range of 142.14 ° C • day and 631.06 ° C • day.

Heating day grades

The heating day degrees (° C • day) are defined following the formula of Spinoni et al (2015), as the sum, for all days of the year, of the difference between the daily average temperature and a reference temperature (which it can be 18 ° C in the case of heating). This indicator is proportional to the heating needs of a specific building in a specific territory.

푇푚á푥 + 푇푚푖푛 퐺퐷18 = 푇푚 푑푖푎푟푖푎 − 푇18 = − 18 2

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Projection of the heating day degrees in Lorca

Its tendency is decidedly descending. If in 2017 this indicator stood at 1,643.84 ° C • day, in 2100 the average projection is 886.20 ° C • day, in a range of 710.13 ° C • day and 1118.18 ° C • day.

3.2.5. Indicators

The information obtained in the previous steps is compiled in the following table:

Indicator Avera 2017 Projection 2100 ge Min Averag Max e Rainfall (mm/day) 0.51 0.49 0.22 0.43 0.71 Number of rainy days (days) 48.75 46.27 20.33 36.02 62,22 Duration of dry periods (days) 47.98 49.56 44,89 62,88 94,56 Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) 6.07 6.76 2.80 8.91 28.13 Maximumtemperature (°C) 20.59 21.68 23.28 26.70 29.08 Percentile 95 Max. temperature 31.05 32,67 33.10 39.41 43.21 (°C) Minimumtemperature (°C) 8.73 9.55 11.75 13,56 15.17 Percentile 5 Min. temperature (°C) 1.10 1.75 3.21 5.07 6.51 Number of warm days (days) 32.63 52.41 110.33 125.37 137 Number of warm nights (days) 32.85 51.78 113.67 127.48 139

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Number of freezing days (days) 13 7.26 0.00 1.07 7.33 Change in duration of heat waves 10.36 17.26 31.67 81.81 109.67 (days) Heating degree days (°C·day) 1831.59 1643.84 710.13 886.20 1118.18 Cooling degree days (°C·day) 87.84 140,99 142,14 433.05 631,06 Forest fires (ha affected per year) Other (please specify)

Fire risk

If we analyze the evolution of forest fires that occurred in past years in the municipality of Lorca, we can observe a certain variability in terms of frequency and magnitude. The fires in the municipality of Lorca are unimportant in recent years, with the exception of 2015, when a fire caused by a lightning storm affected 233.8 Ha.

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4. Climate Hazards Assessment

For climate change hazards which apply to the municipality, include the following information:

Current Expected Expected Climate Hazard hazard risk change in change in Timeframe level intensity frequency Short term Low Increase Increase Medium term Extreme heat Moderate Decrease Decrease Long term High No change No change Current Short term Low Increase Increase Medium term Extreme cold Moderate Decrease Decrease Long term High No change No change Current Short term Low Increase Increase Medium term Extreme precipitation Moderate Decrease Decrease Long term High No change No change Current Short term Low Increase Increase Medium term Floods Moderate Decrease Decrease Long term High No change No change Current Short term Low Increase Increase Medium term Sea level rise Moderate Decrease Decrease Long term High No change No change Current Short term Low Increase Increase Medium term Droughts Moderate Decrease Decrease Long term High No change No change Current

Low Increase Increase Short term Storms Moderate Decrease Decrease Medium term High No change No change Long term Current Short term Low Increase Increase Medium term Landslides Moderate Decrease Decrease Long term High No change No change Current Short term Low Increase Increase Medium term Forest Fires Moderate Decrease Decrease Long term High No change No change Current Other (please specify)

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In order to identify the climate hazards that will affect the municipality the most, they have been categorized following the next punctuation:

Therefore, the climate hazards with greater consequences on the municipality are presented in the following picture:

CLIMATE HAZARDS ON LORCA

Current hazard risk level Expected change in intensity Expected change in frequency Timeframe

EXTREME HEAT 3 1 1 1 EXTREME COLD 1 2 2 1 EXTREME PRECIPITATION 1 1 3 2 FLOODS 1 1 3 2 SEA LEVEL RISE 1 1 1 3 DROUGHTS 3 1 1 4 STORMS 1 3 3 2 LANDSLIDES 3 1 1 1 FOREST FIRES 2 1 1 2

5. Climate Change Vulnerabilities Assessment

Vulnerabilities can be understood as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,

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including climate variability and extremes. There are two main groups of vulnerabilities:

5.1. Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities

Describe the socio-economic vulnerabilities of your territory (e.g. population composition, population density, economic situation) as well as the factors that tend to increase them.

Some examples of vulnerabilities are:

Vulnerability Description

• The expected increase in population will increase the Population growth demand in all supplies. • Population growth will place additional pressures on valuable land and water resources • High population density and building in rural area of Lorca change the natural rivers channels and natural Population density condition of land, and an increase probability of flood when it rain and the soil erosion

• The population of Lorca with less possibility of socio-economic response has a lower capacity to face the effects of climate change

• Elderly and young portions of a population are more vulnerable to climate change impacts, either because of health, mobility, or ability to communicate. Age related vulnerabilities are potentially exacerbated in rural communities where access to health care and % sensitive population (elderly, communications networks are often limited. young, single, unemployed) • People living in poverty are more vulnerable to climate change impacts, due to the limited financial resources to respond to changes, substandard housing, or limited mobility.

• High unemployment rates are an indication of economic hardship that may make people and communities more vulnerable to climate change impacts because of limited financial resources to respond to change. % population living in risky areas • A large number of houses are built in flood areas so it is common to be affect for floods. • Rural communities tend to be poorer than their % of areas not accessible for urban counterparts and unemployment is often higher, both of which suggest a higher sensitivity services and lower capacity to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.

% population with low cultural • Population with low level cultural has less capacity

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level to adaptate to the new climate scenario

• The economy is very dependent of new climate scenario, because a large proportion of production is associated with climate sensitive activities, Economic activity sensitive to particularly agriculture

CC • Increase the temperatures and the decrease of rainfall, etc. will have an impact on the agriculture areas, changing crop types and reducing irrigation areas and an expected increase in invasive species. Other (please specify)

5.2. Physical and Environmental Vulnerabilities

Some examples are:

Vulnerability Description

• In the coastal areas of the municipality of Lorca an Presence of affected coastal increase of the sea level will imply floods of these areas areas, reducing the areas of agricultural use and built areas

Presence of affected rivers not applicable

• A extensive secondary road network are built within Transport network in risky areas flood zones so it is common to affect for floods

• A large number of houses are built within flood Buildings in risky areas zones so it is common to affect for floods

• The new houses and in particular the buildings have houses under the roof and will suffer more sharply the increase of temperature in the warm months. % Old buildings • 60% of the houses were built before 1980 and have no insulation in the roof.

• An increase of air pollution linked an increase of temperature will increase health problem in Air pollution vulnerable population

• An increase of air pollution will increase acid rain in

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urban areas.

• Water is a critical element for Lorca. In addition to the agriculture sector, it is important for tourism, Water pollution industry, and other economic sectors. • The amount and quality of water is likely to be affected by climate change, touching almost every aspect of the economy and peoples lives. • Intensive agriculture produces soil pollution and erosion. The increase in temperature and scarce rainfall that is expected with the new climatic Soil pollution scenario will reduce the capacity of natural regeneration of soils and vegetation, reducing more and more the soil useful for cultivation.

Urban Heat Islands not applicable Difficulty to access risky areas not applicable (emergencies)

• Non-forestry management, decrease of rainfall and increase temperatures, reduce the quantity and quality of forests and increase soil erosion, decrease Presence of forest carbon sinks, pest appearance, loss of biodiversity and loss of areas of high tourist value and therefore economic

Other (please specify)

5.3. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Assessment

Once all municipal’s vulnerabilities have been defined, it is necessary to evaluate them according to two parameters:

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be impacted by a hazard. Sometimes sensitivity is determined by the criticality of the service that the system provides.

Adaptive capacity: The capacity for adaptation will be determined by available technical and scientific knowledge, as well as by the financial capacity to undertake adaptation actions.

The range of values are:

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

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4- High 4- High 2- High Assets are highly exposed Vulnerability’s effects will The municipality has to climate change by mean be observed in the short undertaken some basic of one or more hazards term measures to reduce its vulnerability to climate change, but there is still great work to do. 5- Very high 5- Very high 1- Very high Assets are very highly Vulnerability’s effects are The municipality has exposed to climate change already visible. resources and actions have by mean of one or more been taken to reduce the hazards impact.

The results obtained in this vulnerability assessment are presented in the following chart:

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VULNERABILITIES IN LORCA

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

PRESENCE OF FOREST 1 5 3 DIFFICULTY TO ACCESS RISKY AREAS … 2 1 1 URBAN HEAT ISLANDS 2 1 1 SOIL POLLUTION 1 4 3 WATER POLLUTION 4 5 4 AIR POLLUTION 2 4 3 % OLD BUILDINGS 3 3 4 BUILDINGS IN RISKY AREAS 3 5 3 TRANSPORT NETWORK IN RISKY AREAS 1 5 3 PRESENCE OF AFFECTED RIVERS 5 1 1 PRESENCE OF AFFECTED COASTAL AREAS 4 2 2 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SENSITIVE TO CC 3 2 3 % POPULATION WITH LOW CULTURAL LEVEL 2 5 4 % OF AREAS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR SERVICES 5 1 1 % POPULATION LIVING IN RISKY AREAS 3 5 1 % SENSITIVE POPULATION (ELDERLY, … 3 3 2 POPULATION DENSITY 3 4 2 POPULATION GROWTH 4 2 2

6. Impact Risks expected in the municipality

6.1. Identification of key sectors

The municipality of Lorca have identified the sectors that will be affected (positively or negatively) by climate change. Those sectors are: (Justify through hazards and vulnerability assess)

Sector How is Climate Change going to affect it?

Negatively. Buildings in rural areas and urban areas can be affected Buildings by floods Water Negatively. Shortage and poor quality of water to supply the

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population and strong restrictions as well as dependence of water transfers for economic activity, mainly agriculture Negatively. Shortage of water and soil pollution will decrease Agriculture & forestry production and quality of agriculture sector Environment & Negatively. Climate change will increase environment pollution in urban areas as well as a loss of biodiversity due to the reduction of Biodiversity natural ecosystems Negatively. An important increase of pathologies will happen due to Health air and water pollution and the increase of extreme heat

6.2. Expected Impact Risks

For all sectors identified in 6.1, prioritising risks and vulnerabilities that obtained a major score, different impacts have been defined.

Associate at least three vulnerabilities to each climate change risk in order to define the impacts. For example:

Sector Climate risk Vulnerability Expected impact

Buildings Flood Buildings in risky Floods will affect areas buildings Buildings Extreme heat Buildings without Increase electrical isolate consumption to refrigerate Buildings Drought Density and Supply restrictions growth of the for drinking water number of buildings Water Drought Agriculture Local economy represent an impacts important part of local economy Water Drought Low rainfall levels Supply restrictions for covering the for agriculture

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demand of reservoirs Water Drought Dry climate with Deforestation and low rainfall levels desertification Agriculture & Extreme heat High temperatures Forest fires forestry and dry weather Agriculture & Drought Agriculture Unemployed and forestry represents an poverty important economy sector Agriculture & Floods Soils very Decrease fertile forestry sensitivity soils Environment & Extreme heat Warm climate with Decrease Biodiversity high temperatures biodiversity in summer Environment & Drought Dry climate with Decrease forests Biodiversity low rainfall levels and natural ecosystems

Environment & Floods Soils very sensitive Desertification and Biodiversity to large amounts changes in the of rain landscape Health Extreme heat Aged and An increased use vulnerable of hospitals population Health Drought Low quality of Diseases caused water by water Health Floods Buildings in flood Deaths cause for zones floods

In order to valuate expected impacts according to their effect on the municipality, the following score table have been proposed:

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Likelihood of Occurrence Expected Impact Level Timeframe

1- Unlikely 1- Low 1- Long term 2- Possible 2- Moderate 2- Medium term 3- Likely 3- High 3- Short term 4- Current

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN LORCA

Likelyhood of occurrance Expected impact level Timeframe

DEATHS FOR FLOODS 2 1 2 DISEASES CAUSED BY WATER 2 2 2 AN INCREASED USE OF HOSPITALS 2 2 2 DESERTIFICATION AND CHANGES IN THE … 3 3 4 DECREASE FORESTS AND NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS 3 3 3 DECREASE BIODIVERSITY 3 3 3 DECREASE FERTILE SOILS 3 3 3 UNEMPLOYED AND POVERTY 2 2 3 FOREST FIRES 2 1 3 DEFORESTATION AND DESERTIFICATION 3 2 4 SUPPLY RESTRICTIONS FOR AGRICULTURE 3 3 4 LOCAL ECONOMY IMPACTS 1 3 3 SUPPLY RESTRICTIONS FOR DRINKING WATER 3 3 3 INCREASE ELECTRICAL CONSUMPTION TO … 3 2 3 FLOODS WIL AFFECT BUILDING 2 1 4

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LIFE ADAPTATE LIFE16 CCA/ES/000049

The Working Group in the Municipality of Cartagena is formed by:

Name Position

Matías Yepes Martínez Head of the Infrastructure Area of the city of Cartagena Pedro Yepes Martínez Head of Conservation of the Infrastructure Area Manuel Nicolás Rubio Boss engineering of your area Vicente Pardo Mañez Systems Analyst Engineer of the City of Cartagena Eva Hernández Grau Municipal Technician of the city of Cartagena

Different staff of the City of Cartagena actively collaborates.

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Different types of stakeholders that must be involved in the Adaptation Plan development have been identified. The Stakeholder List in the Municipality of Cartagena is formed by (confirmation is pending):

Name Organization Sector Competences

DEPARTAMENTO DE ÁREA DE PLANIFICACIÓN AMBIENTAL TERRITORIO, AYUNTAMIENTO PROYECTOS DE CARTAGENA DEPARTAMENTO DE ESTRATÉGICOS, ENVIRONMENT GESTIÓN AMBIENTAL CIUDAD INTELIGENTE Y VIVIENDA

ÁREA DE SERVICIOS AYUNTAMIENTO PÚBLICOS, DE CARTAGENA ÁREA DE INFRASTRUCTURES AND PARTICIPACIÓN INFRAESTRUCTURAS SERVICES CIUDADANA Y

FESTEJOS

ÁREA DE AYUNTAMIENTO ESTRATEGIA DEPARTAMENTO DE LA DE CARTAGENA ECONÓMICA, PROMOCIÓN DE LA SALUD PEST CONTROL SANIDAD Y Y LABORATORIO

BIENESTAR ANIMAL

AYUNTAMIENTO ÁREA DE CULTURA, DE CARTAGENA PATRIMONIO HISTORICO Y TURISMO E TOURISM TURISMO IGUALDAD

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ÁREA DE SERVICIOS AYUNTAMIENTO SOCIALES, DE CARTAGENA ESCUELAS INFANTILES, EDUCATION EDUCACIÓN Y ESCUELAS E INSTITUTOS TRANSPARENCIA

SERVICIOS DE AYUNTAMIENTO EMERGENCIAS ÁREA SERVICIO DE EXTINCION DE CARTAGENA DE FUNCIÓN DE INCENDIOS, DE POLICÍA EMERGENCY SERVICES PÚBLICA, HACIENDA Y PROTECCION CIVIL

Y CALIDAD DE VIDA

JUNTAS VECINALES Y REPERESENTANTES DEFENSE OF THE AYUNTAMIENTO ASOCIACIONES DE LOCALES DE LA INTERESTS OF DE CARTAGENA VECINOS POBLACIÓN POPULATION NUCLEI

OFICINA DE IMPULSO ENVIRONMENTAL SOCIOEONÓMICO CARM PUBLICA DISSEMINATION DEL MEDIO AMBIENTE

CENTRO TECNOLOGICO SUPPORT FOR I+D+I FOR CENTRO INVESTIGACIÓN DELA ENERGY AND TECNOLOGIO DEL PATRONATO ENERGIA Y DEL ENVIRONMENT MEDIO AMBIENTE MEDIO AMBIENTE COMPANIES CETENMA

COMISIÓN LIQUIDADORA DE EMPRESA DE ORDINATION AND URBAN POLÍGONO PARA EL PARTICIPACIÓN MIXTA PLANNING MANAGEMENT DASARROLLO DE MUNICIPAL OF LAND CARTAGENA S.A.

EMPRESA DE REMODELING OF THE CARTAGENA ALTA PARTICIPACIÓN MIXTA RAILWAY ARTERIAL VELOCIDAD MUNICIPAL NETWORK

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THE MANAGEMENT OF PATRONATO DE LA THE OWN MUSEUM AND FUNDACIÓN TEATRO AYUNTAMIENTO FUNDACIÓN VISIT TO THE ROMANO DE DE CARTAGENA MONUMENTAL CARTAGENA CONJUNCTION

COMISIÓN LIQUIDADORA DE LA AYUNTAMIENTO OBJECTIVE TO OFFER TO FUNDACIÓN OFICINA FUNDACIÓN DE CARTAGENA THE CITY OF CARTAGENA DE CONGRESOS DE CARTAGENA

THE RECOVERY OF HERITAGE RESOURCES, INFRASTRUCTURES, CONSORCIO ACCESS AND AYUNTAMIENTO CARTAGENA PUERTO FUNDACIÓN TRANSPORTATION DE CARTAGENA DE CULTURAS S.A. SIGNALING THROUGH ARCHAEOLOGICAL, ARCHITECTURAL AND MUSEOGRAPHIC ACTIONS

PATRONATO DE LA FUNDACIÓN AYUNTAMIENTO RELATED RESEARCH FUNDACIÓN DOCENTE TOMAS DE CARTAGENA WORKS ALSO WITH FERRO NAVARRO AGRICULTURE AND THE FIELD

THE CONDUCT OF STUDIES, PLANS AND AGENCIA DE AYUNTAMIENTO PROJECTS TO ACHIEVE A DESARROLLO LOCAL PÚBLICO DE CARTAGENA COMPREHENSIVE Y EMPLEO - (ADLE) ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

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DEVELOPMENT OF THE CASCO ANTIGUO DE AYUNTAMIENTO PÚBLICO OLD TOWN OF CARTAGENA, S.A. DE CARTAGENA CARTAGENA

LA MANGA ORGANISMO PÚBLICO MANGA MANAGEMENT

CONSORCIO ASOCIATIVO

ORGANISMO AUTÓNOMO DE AYUNTAMIENTO COLLECTION OF PUBLIC GESTIÓN PÚBLICO DE CARTAGENA RIGHTS INCOME RECAUDATORIA DE

CARTAGENA

ENTIDAD EMPRESARIAL DE ASSOCIATION OF CABEZO BEAZA EMPRESARIAL PRIVADO ENTREPRENEURS

ENTIDAD ASSOCIATION OF EMPRESARIAL DE EMPRESARIAL PRIVADO ENTREPRENEURS LOS CAMACHOS

IBERDROLA EMPRESA PRIVADO ELECTRIC SERVICE

REPSOL EMPRESA PRIVADO FUEL SERVICE

HIDROGEA EMPRESA PRIVADO WATER SERVICE

LHICARSA EMPRESA PRIVADO GARBAGE SERVICE

VODAFONE/ TELECOMMUNICATIONS EMPRESA PRIVADO TELEFÓNICA SERVICE

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TRANSPORTATION ALSA EMPRESA PRIVADO SERVICE

RENFE EMPRESA PRIVADA NEARBY TRAIN SERVICE

AUTORIDAD PUERTOS DEL MANAGEMENT OF THE PUBLICA PORTUARIA ESTADO PORT OF CARTAGENA

PROTECCIÓN CIVIL, AYUNTAMIENTO LA POLICIA, PÚBLICA Y VOLUNTARIADO EMERGENCY SERVICES DE CARTAGENA BOMBEROS

ENVIRONMENTAL ARBA, ANSE, CREECT ONGS PRIVADO VOLUNTEERING

MANCOMUNIDAD DE DISTRIBUTION OF MINISTERIO DE LOS CANALES DEL PÚBLICO DRINKING WATER TO MEDIO AMBIENTE TAIBILLA MUNICIPALITIES

COMUNIDAD DE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER REGANTES ARCO ------PRIVADO FROM NOT DRINKING TO SUR MAR MENOR THE REGANTES

UNIVERSIDAD UNIVERDIADES MANAGEMENT OF HIGHER POLITÉCNICA DE PÚBLICO ESPAÑOLAS EDUCATION SCHOOLS CARTAGENA

RNE, LA VERDAD, LA LOCAL PRESS AND OPINION, LA SER, LA --- PRIVADOS/PUBLICOS BROADCASTING MEDIA COPE, ONDA CERO

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Human resources for the process of adaptation to climate change will be specific to the city of Cartagena, will be outsourced to external personnel when necessary and is insufficient technical knowledge or inexperience of the staff of the City

Project Life Adaptate covers the elaboration of the adaptation plan and the implementation of the first adaptation measure.

The City Council of Cartagena has initiated measures to adapt to climate change such as reforestation, solar recovery for uses with permeable pavement and vegetation cover, sensorization and installation with technology with its own financing and external financing of European projects.

Calls for participation in workshops during the adaptation process, with the interested groups, with the dissemination of posters and social networks belonging to the City Council.

Monitoring of the participatory process through the website and the agreed results.

The city of Cartagena is located in Spain, more specifically to the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula at coordinates 37º36 'N, 0º59' W. Its municipal area covers an area of 558.3 km², of which 163.45 are natural areas protected.

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The municipality of Cartagena is a large inclined plane with NO-SE direction limited to the north by the ravine of El Albujón, south and east by the Mediterranean Sea and west by Cabezos del Pericón and Sierra de los Victorias.

Ubicación de Cartagena en España. (Fuente: Wikipedia).

Ubicación de Cartagena en la Región de Murcia. (Fuente: Wikipedia)

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The city, capital of the municipality of the same name, is the seat of the regional parliament of the Region of Murcia, the Regional Assembly of Murcia, legislative body of the autonomous community.4 It has a population of 214 177 inhabitants (INE, 2017) distributed in a municipal area of 558.08 km². It is located south of the Campo de Cartagena plain, a natural region that forms its metropolitan area and which has a population of 409,586 inhabitants. Thus, it ranks 22nd in the list of most populated municipalities in Spain and ranked 26th in the list of metropolitan areas in Spain.

The population of the central urban area of Cartagena, also called "consolidated city", 62 is divided between the municipal capital and the surrounding provinces:

Mapa Diputacional de Cartagena. (Fuente: Wikipedia).

Deputations of the peri-urban area Provincial Councils of the urban area

• Rincón de San Ginés: 11.061 hab. • Cartagena (Casco): 60.905 hab.; • El Algar: 7.735 hab.; • San Antonio Abad: 44.865 hab.; • La Palma: 5.423 hab.; • El Plan: 35.674 hab.; • Pozo Estrecho: 4.845 hab.; • Canteras: 10.288 hab.; • La Aljorra: 4.848 hab.; • Santa Lucía: 6.544 hab. • Alumbres: 3.433 hab.; • La Magdalena: 3.817 hab.; • El Albujón: 2.992 hab.; • San Félix: 2.649 hab.; • El Beal: 2.302 hab.; • Santa Ana: 2.504 hab.; • Lentiscar: 2.062 hab.; • Miranda: 1.414 hab.; • Perín: 1.792 hab.; • Hondón: 1.091 hab.; • Los Puertos: 1.528 hab.; • Campo Nubla: 333 hab.;

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• Los Médicos: 131 hab.; • Escombreras: 8 hab.;

Datos Año 2012 (Fuente: Wikipedia).

The city of Cartagena (Spain) has a large number of outstanding buildings that range from the Punic domination in the third century BC to the present.

• Constructions of Antiquity: archaeological heritage:

Punic wall. The oldest building that is in the city is the wall built by the Carthaginians, (the Punic domination in Cartagena took place between 227 and 209 BC).

Augusteum. Originally home to the priests dedicated to the emperor Caesar Augustus. Built in the 1st century BC.

House of Fortune. walkway with remains on both sides of two houses 1st century a. C. They emphasize the mural paintings and mosaics that are conserved of these houses.

Blind Tower. Located in the approaches to Cartagena, it is named after a Roman funerary monument from the 1st century BC. C. It was located in a necropolis located next to one of the main Roman roads to Cartagena. Roman amphitheater. Under the bullring that was built in the nineteenth century, and which is currently abandoned, are the remains of the former Roman amphitheater of the city of Carthago Nova, which is believed to have been built in the 1st century, most likely on a previous similar construction. , from the Republican era. Roman theatre. It is the most outstanding of the constructions of Roman times that are conserved in Cartagena. Its construction took place between the years 5 a. C. and 1 a. C. and its capacity (6,000 spectators)

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placed it as the second largest in Hispania Accompanies a museum designed by Rafael Moneo. Neighborhood of the Roman forum. From this decumano one acceded to a great thermal set and to a great building with an atrium that has been identified like a soothes of a collegium. Cerro del Molinete. It is one of the five hills that delimited the urban space of the classic Cartagena and in which many remains of great archaeological value have been found. They emphasize an urban set (domus), a temple, the wall of the Dean and a windmill. Necropolis of San Antón. Dating from the 4th and 5th centuries, it consists of a series of 700m long tumuli, pits and pantheons located in the vicinity of what was the Almarjal lagoon. It is a peculiar Late Roman roman necropolis, since its tombs are already from the time when Christianity was the official religion of the Empire. It is located inside the Municipal Archaeological Museum. House of Salvius. The deposit, corresponding to a domus of high imperial period, was found in the street of Alto, in the university district.

• Military constructions:

Castle of the Conception. The current construction dates from the reign of Henry III (14th century)

General Captaincy. Built under the reign of Felipe V, it is a neoclassical construction from 1738.

Marine Hospital. Built between 1749 and 1762, it remained active until the last third of the 20th century.

Autopsy Pavilion. Built in 1768, it is a building attached to the Hospital de Marina.

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Barracks of Antigones (1789-1795). At the moment it lodges the Upper Technical School of Engineering of Telecommunications of the UPCT. .

Walls of Carlos III (1766-1786).

Military Arsenal. Its construction was ordered by King Philip V after the designation of Cartagena as the capital of one of the three Maritime Departments in which he divided Spain. It began in 1732 and ended in 1782, already under the command of Carlos III.

Mariner Training Barracks. Built in the vicinity of the Military Arsenal between 1776 and 1785 was originally a military prison, the Penados Barracks.

Real Artillery Park. It was erected between 1777 and 1786, with a rectangular floor plan, whose main façade opens onto the Plaza de López Pinto. It is a neoclassical building that was deeply affected by an explosion in 1874 during the War of the Canton.

Castles and defenses of the city. In the vicinity of Cartagena several neoclassical castles built in the eighteenth century for defensive purposes. The Castle of the Moors, located on a hill in the neighborhood of Santa Lucia, declared BIC and of special historical relevance in the defenses of the city. The castle of Galeras. Along with these castles, there is also a construction destined for naval surveillance and defense, the Fort of Christmas.

In the vicinity of the city there are also prominent coastal batteries, intended for surveillance and protection as well as, in recent years of use, to house anti-aircraft defenses that protected access to the port dock.

• Religious architecture:

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Cathedral of Our Lady of the Assumption (popularly Old Cathedral or Santa María la Vieja). After the reconquest of Cartagena in 1245. Other churches that make up the rich ecclesiastical heritage from the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries

• Civil architecture: Among the oldest civil constructions that can be found is the old palace of the Marquis of Casatilly, from the 18th century, renovated at the end of the 19th century for use as the Casino de la Ciudad, on the Calle Mayor; the Palacio de Molina, from the end of the century in Baroque and neoclassical style, between Jara and Honda streets; and also the house of Antonio de Escaño, in Medieras street. All in all, the main civil architecture constructions in the city of Cartagena were from the late nineteenth century and, above all, at the beginning of the twentieth, with modernism as the prevailing current. There will be dozens of buildings and among them there are outstanding buildings.

• Contemporary architecture

In the last years of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century an intense urban reform was carried out in the city with the construction of several avant-garde architecture buildings.

Museum of the Roman Theater, work of Rafael Moneo. Opened in 2008

National Museum of Underwater Archeology, by Guillermo Vázquez Consuegra. Also opened in 2008.

Panoramic lift, work of Andrés Cánovas Alcaraz and Martín Lejarraga.

Auditorium and congress center El Batel (José Selgas and Lucía Cano).

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Sports Palace (Juan Antonio Sánchez Morales, Miguel Mesa del Castillo Clavel and Riccardo Crespi).

Bus station (Jesús Carballal Fernández, first prize in the national competition), inaugurated in 1995.

New Racing Club.

We are looking for a necessary solution in our municipality to manage the movement of motor vehicles (public and private) and the sum of the intense transport of goods. The City of Cartagena is in collaboration with the Polytechnic University of Cartagena, as a result of the Plan of Sustainable Urban Mobility of La Manga del Mar Menor and a taxi mobility plan in our city in collaboration with the UPCT is in process. In addition they are doing analysis of gauges with sensorization. It is interesting to mention a strategic plan for infrastructures and transport 2005-2020.

The city of Cartagena is currently writing reforestations plan. The city of Cartagena is currently drafting different mobility, reforestations, ect ... plans to adapt the city to the commitment acquired in the Covenant of the mayors for climate and energy.

Transitory norms of the urban planning plan are also being taken out, which is going to collect the needs for the adaptation of the municipality to climate change.

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Currently, energy is generated from landfill gas, recycling awareness campaigns are carried out and ecoembes are collaborated in activities.

The municipality of Cartagena is supplied mainly by the water provided by the community of the cibals of the Taibilla, an autonomous body belonging to the Ministry of the Environment. This water is from the Tagus- safe source, desalinated water and water from the Taibilla River. To this day there is no reuse of gray water for irrigation.

In order to analyse the historical events that the municipality has suffered and its resilience to climate change and natural hazards, available information on these topics have been compiled in The State Meteorological Agency and Statistical Portal of the Region of Murcia – CREM.

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The first step is to select the key climate variables for the municipality, a step that is closely related to the climatic scenarios identified in the reports compiled in point 3.1.

Rainfall (mm) ✓

Number of rainy days ✓

Duration of dry periods ✓

Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) ✓

Maximum temperature ✓

Minimum temperature ✓

Number of warm days ✓

Number of warm nights ✓

Number of freezing days ✓

Heat waves duration ✓

Heating degree days ✓

Cooling degree days ✓

Forest fires ✓ Other (please specify) ------

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work with this Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 in order to ensure the adaptation to climate change.

Climatic Scenarios Report and methodology document provided by the observatory of climate change CARM.

Information available

In order to assess the possible risks that may be posed by a certain vulnerability for the municipality of Cartagena, the available data have been analyzed through the different sources, which can provide information to identify the most representative risks for the municipality.

Among the available data, the following have been selected, indicating their source in parentheses:

• Flood zones with high probability in a period of 10 years (Civil Protection)

• Flood zones with frequent probability in a period of 50 years (Civil Protection)

• Flood zones with medium or occasional probability over a period of 100 years (Mapama)

• Precipitation (mm) (AEMET)

• Number of rainy days (AEMET)

• Duration of dry periods (AEMET)

• Percentile 95 of daily precipitation (mm) (AEMET)

• Maximum temperature (AEMET)

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• Minimum temperature (AEMET)

• Number of warm days (AEMET)

• Number of warm nights (AEMET)

• Number of freezing days (AEMET)

• Heat waves duration (AEMET)

• Heating day grades (AEMET)

• Degrees day refrigeration (AEMET)

• Forest fires produced (CREM)

The prediction of climatic indicators has been carried out using the most representative studies existing in the international bibliography. These studies are:

• BCC-CSM1-1 (AR5): Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model, version 1.1 (according to the Assessment Report 5)

• BCC-CSM 1-1-m (AR5): Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model, version 1.1 with moderate resolution (according to the Assessment Report 5)

• IPSL-CM5A-MR (AR5): Institute Pierre Simon Laplace - 5th Phase of the Coupled Model - Medium Resolution (according to the Assessment Report 5)

• MIROC5 (AR5): Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, with standard resolution (according to the Assessment Report 5)

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• MIROC-ESM-CHEM (AR5): Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate - Earth System Model - Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Version (according to Assessment Report 5)

• MRI-CGCM3 (AR5): Meteorological Research Institute - Coupled General Circulation Model 3 (according to the Assessment Report 5)

• BCC-CSM1-1 (AR5_SDSM): Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model, version 1.1 (according to the Assessment Report 5 following a Statistical Method of Scale Reduction)

• BCC-CSM1-1-m (AR5_SDSM): Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model, version 1.1 with moderate resolution (according to the Assessment Report 5 following a Statistical Method of Scale Reduction)

• CSIRO-Mk3.6 (AR5_SDSM): Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization - Mark 3.6 version (according to the Assessment Report 5 following a Statistical Method of Scale Reduction)

• IPSL-CM5A-LR (AR5_SDSM): Institute Pierre Simon Laplace - 5th Phase of the Coupled Model - Low Resolution (according to the Assessment Report 5 following a Statistical Method of Scale Reduction)

• IPSL-CM5A-MR (AR5_SDSM): Institute Pierre Simon Laplace - 5th Phase of the Coupled Model - Medium Resolution (according to the Assessment Report 5 following a Statistical Method of Scale Reduction)

• MIROC-ESM-CHEM (AR5_SDSM): Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate - Earth System Model - Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Version (according to the Assessment Report 5 following a Statistical Method of Scale Reduction)

• MIROC5 (AR5_SDSM): Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, with standard resolution (according to the Assessment Report 5 following a Statistical Method of Scale Reduction)

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• MRI-CGCM3 (AR5_SDSM): Meteorological Research Institute - Coupled General Circulation Model 3 (according to the Assessment Report 5 following a Statistical Method of Scale Reduction)

The Fifth Report of the IPCC defines 4 different emission scenarios, depending on the level of emissions that is maintained in the following years of this century, with the horizon set at 2100. These are the so-called Representative Concentration Trajectories (RCP, for its acronym in English). These are defined by an equivalent increase in total solar radiation for the year 2100, defined as Radiative Forcing (FR), which ranges between 2.6 W / m2 (equivalent to a concentration of 421 ppm of CO2 in 2100) and 8, 5 W / m2 (equivalent to a concentration of 936 ppm of CO2 in 2100).

Flooding areas

The municipal term of Cartagena does not count on rivers, and it has two main boulevards in its municipal term: the ravine of the Albujón, with which it makes border in its northern part, and the rambla of Benipila, that crosses the city. Both have caused numerous floods throughout history due to torrential rains. The municipality has many wadis, mainly with the mouth of the Mar Menor, prone to suffer large floods and cause flooding in the area. On the other hand, the coastal situation of the municipality, causes that in the future it may suffer floods derived from the increase in sea level. The

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municipality of Cartagena has a land language that separates the Mar Menor from the Mediterranean Sea, La Manga del Mar Menor. This area is especially prone to flooding due to sea level rise.

Flood zones with high probability (T = 10 years)

Flooding areas with frequent probability (T = 50 years)

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Flood zones with medium or occasional probability (T = 100 years)

Precipitation

Projection of the evolution in the volume of rainfall in Cartagena

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The evolution of this indicator makes it possible to observe the impact that climate change will have on rainfall in the municipality, which is already low. Its tendency is to the downside. While in the year 2017 the average daily rainfall was 0.46 mm, in the year 2100 the estimated average is 0.34 mm, with a range of 0.21 mm and 0.47 mm.

In addition, the Ministry of the Environment, Rural and Marine Affairs, through the General Directorate of Water, instructs the CEDEX (Center for Studies and Experimentation of Public Works in 2017) an exhaustive study to analyze the evolution of annual and monthly rainfall, This study, called the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Natural Regime, analyzes the evolution of three different indicators in two different emissions scenarios (A2 and B2 of the IPCC's AR4, 2007), and according to various projection models developed by the scientific community and accepted by the IPCC, these indicators are:

• Daily and monthly rainfall (PRE)

• Maximum daily rainfall (PMX)

• Quotient between the daily precipitations above the 95% percentile and the annual PRE (R95T), which reflects the weight of extreme rainfall in the annual total and would be related to the torrential climate. More intense rainfall events would be expected as this ratio of extreme rainfall increases over the total.

Taking into account that rainfall records are made for daily periods, these observations do not provide information on the rainfall torrentiality, which are measured in liters per hour or by x hours.

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according to the different models, do not offer conclusive results, but show increasing or decreasing trends regardless of the chosen emissions scenario.

The report concludes that, despite the poor performance of these prediction models, the observations allow to see an increase in the torrential rains in the medium and long term.

Number of rainy days

The indicator is defined as the number of days in a period of time whose precipitation is greater than 1 mm. If in 2017 the indicator stood at 42.17 days of rain per year, in 2100 the prediction is of an average of 30.33 days of rain, in a range of between 22 and 47 days.

Projection of the number of rainy days in Cartagena

The number of rainy days, already very scarce, shows a decreasing trend, in line with the decrease in total rainfall.

The 95th percentile of daily precipitation (mm) is defined as the value below which are 95% of the daily precipitation values of a period of time, that is, the highest daily precipitation volumes. The results are shown in mm. Although this value can not be taken as an indicator of torrential rains (which are usually measured in mm / h and not mm / d), the absence of more appropriate data requires interpreting it as an indicator of torrential rains.

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Projection of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation in Cartagena

In the year 2017 the 95th percentile stood at 7.43 mm, and in the year 2100 an average 95th percentile of 6.60 mm is expected, in a range between 2.51 and 11.52 mm. Which does not reflect an increase in torrential rains.

Duration of the dry period

It is defined as the maximum number of consecutive "dry days" in a period of time, that is, days whose precipitation did not exceed the threshold of 1 mm.

Projection of the duration duration of dry periods in Cartagena

The evolution of the periods of dry days shows a growing trend until the year 2100. In the year 2017 the average duration was 56.53 days, in 2100 an average duration of 69.83 days is expected, in a range of 51 , 67 and 82.67 days.

Maximum temperature

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Indicative map of the maximum annual average temperature

The maximum temperature, defined as the air temperature at 2 meters above the average maximum daily floor, shows a constant increase. In 2017, the value of the indicator was 23.28 ° C and in 2100 it is expected

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an average increase to 27.73 ° C, value that is within a range of 24.88 ° C and 29.72 °C.

Projection of the maximum annual average temperature in Cartagena

On the other hand, if the indicator of the 95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature is analyzed, defined as the value under which 95% of the maximum temperatures of a period of time are found, it can be observed that the maximum temperatures in the period summer with higher temperatures present an increase similar to the average maximum temperatures throughout the year. If in 2017 the value of the indicator was 32.17 ° C, in 2100 it is expected to increase on average to 38.12 ° C, a value that is situated in a range of 32.60 ° C and 41.88 ° C.

Projection of the 95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature in Cartagena

Minimum temperature

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As with the maximum temperature, for the average temperature, the minimum average annual temperature indicators and the 5th percentile of the minimum daily temperature have been analyzed.

The indicator that reflects the minimum annual average temperature shows a constant increase since 2017, where its value was of 14,34 ° C until 2100, where an average value of 18,77 ° C is estimated, in a range of temperatures between 17 , 19 ° C and 20.74 ° C.

Average annual minimum temperature projection in Cartagena

Secondly, if the indicator of the 5th percentile of the daily minimum temperature is analyzed, defined as the value under which 5% of the minimum temperatures of a period of time are found, it can be observed that the minimum temperatures in the period Winter season with lower temperatures show an increase similar to the average minimum temperatures throughout the year. If in 2017 the value of the indicator was 6.99 ° C, in 2100 it is expected to increase on average to 111.11 ° C, a value that is situated in a range of 9.40 ° C and 12.60 ° C .

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Projection of the 5th percentile of the minimum daily temperature in Cartagena

Number of warm days

The number of warm days, defined as the number of days in a period of time whose maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile of a reference climate period, also shows an increasing trend.

Projection of the number of warm days in Cartagena

It is expected a significant increase in the number of warm days, if in 2017 this indicator had a value of 53.33 days, the predictions for the year 2100 grow greatly, are placed in 107 days according to the most optimistic analysis, up to 150 days in the case of the most pessimistic, with an average of 126.89 days. All this in the horizon of the year 2100.

Number of warm nights

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Projection of the number of warm nights in Cartagena

It is expected a significant increase in the number of warm nights, if in 2017 this indicator had a value of 54.78 days, the predictions for the year 2100 grow significantly, are 114 days according to the most optimistic analysis, up to 151 days in the case of the most pessimistic, with an average of 134.67 days. All this in the horizon of the year 2100.

Number of nights with frost

The indicator reflects the number of days in which a minimum temperature below 0 ° C is reached. This indicator presented an average value of 1.78 days per year in the year 2017, a significantly lower figure. For the year 2100 this indicator is reduced to 0.11 days of average value and is in a range between 0 days and 1 days.

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Projection of the number of days with minimum temperature below 0 ° C in Cartagena

Therefore, it can be affirmed that, in the future, the days of freezing in the municipality of Cartagena will be practically nonexistent.

Duration of heat waves

Projection of the duration of heat waves in Cartagena

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The duration of heat waves presents a clearly upward trend, with projections in 2100 that offer values from 21 to 129 days, with an average of 86.78 days. In 2017, the value stood at 28.56.

Degrees day of refrigeration

The cooling day degrees (° C · day) are defined following the formula of Spinoni et al (2015), as the sum, for all days of the year, of the difference between the daily average temperature and a reference temperature (a often the 26 ° C is used). This indicator is proportional to the cooling needs of a specific building in a specific territory.

〖GD〗 _26 = T_mdiaria-T_26 = (T_max + T_min) / 2-26

Projection of refrigeration day degrees in Cartagena

The tendency to increase in the degree days of refrigeration, indicates that the climate will be increasingly hot. If in 2017 this indicator stood at 160.04 ° C · day, in 2100 the average projection is 363.36 ° C · day, in a range of 168.77 ° C · day and 610.97 ° C · day.

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Heating day grades

The heating day degrees (° C · day) are defined following the formula of Spinoni et al (2015), as the sum, for all days of the year, of the difference between the daily average temperature and a reference temperature (which it can be 18 ° C in the case of heating). This indicator is proportional to the heating needs of a specific building in a specific territory.

〖GD〗 _18 = T_mdiaria-T_18 = (T_max + T_min) / 2-18

Projection of the heating day degrees in Cartagena

Its tendency is decidedly descending. If in 2017 this indicator stood at 784.72 ° C · day, in 2100 the average projection is 266.21 ° C · day, in a range of 163.87 ° C · day and 368.27 ° C · day.

The information obtained in the previous steps is compiled in the following table:

Indicator Average 2017 Projection 2100

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Min Average Max Rainfall (mm/day) 0.48 0.46 0.21 0.34 0.47 Number of rainy days (days) 43.09 42.17 22.00 30.33 47.00 Duration of dry periods (days) 56.00 56.53 51.67 69.83 82.67 Percentile 95 of daily rainfall (mm) 6.97 7.43 2.51 6.60 11.52 Maximum temperature (°C) 22.33 23.28 24.88 27.73 29.79 Percentile 95 Max. temperature (°C) 30.82 32.17 32.60 38.12 41.88 Minimum temperature (°C) 13.62 14.34 17.19 18.77 20.74 Percentile 5 Min. temperature (°C) 6.74 6.99 9.40 11.11 12.60 Number of warm days (days) 32.32 53.33 107.00 126.89 150.00 Number of warm nights (days) 32.14 54.78 114.00 134.67 151.00 Number of freezing days (days) 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Change in duration of heat waves (days) 11.11 28.56 21.00 86.78 129.00 Heating degree days (°C·day) 891.12 784.72 163.87 266.21 368.27 Cooling degree days (°C·day) 98.10 160.04 168.77 363.36 610.97 Forest fires (ha affected per year) 84.23 66.00(2016) ------Other (please specify) ------

For climate change hazards which apply to the municipality, include the following information:

Choose one of the following options:

Current Expected Expected Climate Hazard hazard risk change in change in Timeframe level intensity frequency Extreme heat Moderate Increase Increase Short term Extreme cold Low Decrease Decrease Short term Extreme precipitation Low No change No change Long term Floods Low Increase No change Medium term Sea level rise Low Increase Increase Medium term Droughts High Increase Increase Current Storms Moderate No change No change Short term Landslides Low No change No change Short term Forest Fires Moderate No change No change Short term

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Other (please ------specify)

In order to identify the climate hazards that will affect the municipality the most, they have been categorized following the next punctuation:

Therefore, the climate hazards with greater consequences on the municipality are presented in the following picture:

CLIMATE HAZARDS ON CARTAGENA

Current hazard risk level Expected change in intensity Expected change in frequency Timeframe

EXTREME HEAT 3 1 2 2 EXTREME COLD 1 2 2 2 EXTREME PRECIPITATION 1 2 3 1 FLOODS 2 2 2 1 SEA LEVEL RISE 2 2 1 2 DROUGHTS 3 3 3 3 STORMS 2 1 1 1 LANDSLIDES 0 FOREST FIRES 1 1 1 1

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Describe the socio-economic vulnerabilities of your territory (e.g. population composition, population density, economic situation) as well as the factors that tend to increase them.

Vulnerability Description

The expected increase in population will increase the demand Population growth in all supplies.

High temperatures will cause health problems in the public considered vulnerable / sensitive (elderly, children, people Health sector with respiratory diseases and obese).

Reduction of visitors due to high temperatures and cultural Tourism sector heritage located on the coast.

Small towns near ramblas and others located on the coast in Areas not accessible for services rocky areas.

A greater dependence on the energy society, provoke Energy sector enegetic poverty differences.

Infrastructures of the cities Problems in rainy episodes with the drainage network.

Economic activity sensitive to Energy Sector, Sector Agriculture, Fisheries, Livestock, CC Tourism.

The contamination of water bodies either originates from Water sector floods or water shortage.

Biodiversity heat waves will affect marine biodiversity and green areas

Lasting droughts will give problems to meet the water needs Agriculture sector of agricultural activity

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Some examples are:

Vulnerability Description

Presence of affected coastal Cartagena is a coastal municipality with nucleos great density areas populations on the coast.

Presence of affected rivers ------

The port of Cartagena is the fourth port of Spain in terms of transport of goods and is located in the naval shipyard Transport network in risky areas Navantia, in addition to develop nautical activities, military, fishing, passengers and sports.

Buildings in risky areas Bic Buildings.

Old buildings Cultural assets.

Air pollution Increased air pollution due to increased energy consumption.

Water pollution Increase in contaminated water and transmission of diseases.

Soil pollution ------

Urban Heat Islands Increase in heat island due to increased temperatures. Difficulty to access risky areas Increase of the bed of the ramblas. (emergencies)

Presence of forest and sea Decrease of biodiversity.

Other (please specify) ------

Once all municipal’s vulnerabilities have been defined, it is necessary to evaluate them according to two parameters:

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Adaptive capacity: the capacity for adaptation will be determined by available technical and scientific knowledge, as well as by the financial capacity to undertake adaptation actions.

Sensitivity: In the context of a risk assessment, the term sensitivity refers to the degree to which a system is affected by, or responsive to a hazard. In other words, sensitivity captures the potential of a system to be impacted by a hazard. Sometimes sensitivity is determined by the criticality of the service that the system provides.

The range of values are:

Adaptive capacity Sensitivity

1- Very low 1- Very low The municipality's potential in terms of Vulnerability’s effects won’t cause any adaptive capacity is very low, no effect in the municipality actions can be implemented to adapt the municipality to climate change

2- Low 2- Low The municipality's potential in terms of Vulnerability’s effects will be observed in adaptive capacity is low, but some the long term actions can be implemented.

3- Medium 3- Medium The municipality has the potential to Vulnerability’s effects will be observed in mitigate the effects of climate change, the medium term but no action has been taken.

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4- High 4- High The municipality has undertaken some Vulnerability’s effects will be observed in basic measures to reduce its the short term vulnerability to climate change, but there is still great work to do.

5- Very high 5- Very high The municipality has resources and Vulnerability’s effects are already visible. actions have been taken to reduce the impact.

The results obtained in this vulnerability assessment are presented in the following chart:

VULNERABILITIES IN CARTAGENA

Adaptive capacity Sensitivity

PRESENCE OF FOREST 3 2 DIFFICULTY TO ACCESS RISKY AREAS … 4 1 URBAN HEAT ISLANDS 2 2 SOIL POLLUTION 5 4 WATER POLLUTION 5 3 AIR POLLUTION 4 4 % OLD BUILDINGS 2 5 BUILDINGS IN RISKY AREAS 3 2 TRANSPORT NETWORK IN RISKY AREAS 3 2 PRESENCE OF AFFECTED RIVERS 0 PRESENCE OF AFFECTED COASTAL AREAS 3 1 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SENSITIVE TO CC 2 4 % POPULATION WITH LOW CULTURAL LEVEL 5 1 % OF AREAS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR SERVICES 2 5 % POPULATION LIVING IN RISKY AREAS 3 4 % SENSITIVE POPULATION (ELDERLY, … 3 5 POPULATION DENSITY 1 2 POPULATION GROWTH 1 2

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Identify from the following table which sectors are going to be affected (positively or negatively) by climate change.

Buildings Refers to any (municipal/residential/tertiary, public/private) structure or groups of structures, surrounding spaces, permanently constructed or erected on its site. Transport Includes road, rail, air and water transport networks and related infrastructure (e.g. roads, bridges, hubs, tunnels, ports and airports). It comprises an extensive range of both public and private assets and services and excludes all related vessels, vehicles (and related parts and processes). Energy Refers to the energy supply service and related infrastructure (generation, transmission & distribution networks, all energy types). It includes coal, crude oil, natural gas liquids, refinery feedstocks, additives, petroleum products, gases, combustible renewables and waste, electricity and heat. Water Refers to the water supply service and related infrastructure. It also covers water use (e.g. by households, industry, energy production, agriculture, etc.) and (waste- , rain-) water management system, that includes sewers, drainage and treatment systems (i.e. the process to render waste water fit to meet environmental standards or other quality norms, as well as to cope with excess rain or storm water). Waste Includes activities related to the management (including collection, treatment and disposal) of various forms of waste, such as solid or non-solid industrial or household waste, as well as contaminated sites. Land Use Process undertaken by public authorities to identify, evaluate and decide on Planning different options for the use of land, including consideration of long term economic, social and environmental objectives and the implications for different communities and interest groups, and the subsequent formulation and promulgation of plans or regulations that describe the permitted or acceptable uses. Agriculture & Includes land classified / designated for agriculture & forestry use, as well as Forestry organisations and industries linked to creation and production within and surrounding the boundaries of the municipality. It includes animal husbandry, aquaculture, agroforestry, beekeeping, horticulture and other agriculture & forestry management and services in the area. Environment & Environment refers to green and blue landscapes, air quality, including urban Biodiversity hinterland. Biodiversity refers to the variety of life in a specific region, measurable as the variety within species, between species, and the variety of ecosystems. Health Refers to the geographical distribution of dominance of pathologies (allergies, cancers, respiratory and heart diseases, etc.), information indicating the effect on health (biomarkers, decline of fertility, epidemics) or well-being of humans (fatigue, stress, post-traumatic stress disorder, death etc.) linked directly (air

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pollution, heat waves, droughts, severe flood events, ground level ozone , noise, etc.) or indirectly (food / water quality and availability, genetically modified organisms, etc.) to the quality of the environment. It also includes the health care service and related infrastructure (e.g. hospitals). Civil Protection Refers to the operation of the civil protection and emergency services by or on and Emergency behalf of public authorities (e.g. civil protection authorities, police, fire-fighters, ambulance, paramedic and emergency medicine services) and includes local disaster risk reduction and management (i.e. capacity building, coordination, equipment, emergency planning etc.). Tourism Refers to the activities of persons travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not related to the exercise of an activity remunerated from within the place visited. Other Any other sectors (e.g. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), Industry, Financial) Table 1 - Description of the sectors (source: The Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy - Reporting Guidelines)

The municipality of Cartagena have identified the sectors that will be affected (positively or negatively) by climate change. Those sectors are:

Sector How is Climate Change going to affect it?

Buildings Increased energy consumption in cooling.

Transport Difficulty accessing certain areas due to floods. Energy Greater consumption by the elements of air

conditioning. Water Water cuts supply problems, water increases its

price for energy consumption to desalinate it. Waste Problems due to the location of landfills, greater surface needs due to the increase in population

and the density of the population.

Land Use Planning Island of heat and flood zones. Agriculture & Lower biodiversity greater number of pests, Forestry different cultivation cycles to adapt to the

temperatures, higher water prices.

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Environment & Erosion and loss of biodiversity in flora and fauna Biodiversity

Health Heat stroke and problems related to allergies. Civil Protection and Increase in the demand for services and increase

Emergency in the cost of the service. Tourism Change of destinations and decrease of foreign

tourism.

For all sectors identified in 6.1, prioritising risks and vulnerabilities that obtained a major score, different impacts have been defined.

Associate at least three vulnerabilities to each climate change risk in order to define the impacts.

Sector Climate risk Vulnerability Expected impact

greater needs for Increase in Energy electrical temperatures energetic poverty appliances

Agriculture Water restrictions crop losses Drought Buildings Floods Buildings in risky Floods will affect areas buildings

In order to valuate expected impacts according to their effect on the municipality, the following score table have been proposed:

Likelihood of Occurrence Expected Impact Level Timeframe

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1- Unlikely 1- Low 1- Long term 2- Possible 2- Moderate 2- Medium term 3- Likely 3- High 3- Short term 4- Current

TÍTULO DEL GRÁFICO

Likelyhood of occurrance Expected impact level Timeframe

TOURISM 2 3 2

HEALTH 3 3 4

EVIROMENT & BIODIVERSITY 2 2 2

AGRICULTURE & FORESTY 1 3 1

LAND USE PLANNING 2 3 2

WASTE 2 3 1

WATER 3 1 2

ENERGY 3 3 3

TRANSPORT 1 3 2

BUILDINGS 2 1 2

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