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Belmont stakes Wagering Guide Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 4

Union Rags wins 2012 Belmont. ©Horsephotos.com/NTRA

866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737) Fellow Racing Fan,

Welcome to the sixth edition of Xpressbet’s free Belmont Wagering Guide!

The exciting, front-running victory by in the and ’s scintillating closing ANALYSIS: Text charge in the Derby set up an intriguing rubber match in the . Of course, the Belmont won’t necessarily be a two-horse race. At this writing, a large field seems set to tangle in MAIN CONTENDERS: Text New York.

VALUE PLAYS: Text Golden Soul and Revolutionary, second and third in the , respectively, appear to offer WAGERINGthe biggest STRATEGIES challenges to the($100): top pair, however, there are other interesting alternatives. Inside this • $10guide Exacta you Part-Wheel: will find an HORSE assortment with ($20) of runners mentioned and supported to possibly upset the apple cart • $10or atExacta least Part-Wheel: crack the HORSE superfecta with ($20)at decent prices. • $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: HORSE with ($20) The best way to prepare to wager successfully on the Belmont is with Xpressbet’s Belmont Wagering Guide. Inside you will find everything you need to watch and wager on the race like an expert. And, of course, you can wager on the Belmont Stakes and worldwide and harness racing with Xpressbet online, by phone or via mobile device.

If you don’t already have an Xpressbet account, please accept this complimentary guide and act now to open an account and to earn up to $125 in bonus cash! Complete details are available at Xpressbet.com.

We’ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. You’ll also find useful Stats & Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more gathered in one place.

Plan to return to the Xpressbet web site for free daily Belmont Wagering Guide updates. These will include Johnny D’s in-depth, horse-by-horse analysis and revised expert opinions and selections based on scratches, post positions, weather, etc. Updates will be posted daily beginning Tuesday, June 4.

The folks at Xpressbet wish you an entertaining and profitable 2013 Belmont Stakes and look forward to serving as your advance deposit wagering account provider for the big day and into the future.

Sincerely, Ron Luniewski Xpressbet

PICKS 1. horse 2. HORSE 3. HORSE 4. HORSE 866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737) Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 4 *Restrictions apply. See website for details. National gambling support line 800.522.4700. BELMONT WAGERING FACTS By Jeremy Plonk, Horseplayernow.com

Below are some interesting and informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes events.

WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS EXACTA PAYOFFS (Last 12 Years, Odds to $1) (Last 12 Years, $2 Payoff) ANALYSIS:Win Odds Text Average: $391.89 Average: 17.68 High: $2,454.00 (-Medaglia d’Oro, 2002) MAINHigh: CONTENDERS:70.25 (Sarava, 2002) Text Low: $20.60 (-, 2001) Low: 1.15 ( Alex, 2005) Notable: 9 of last 12 exactas have paid $144 or less. VALUENotable: PLAYS: Text (2012) snapped a streak of 4 straight Belmont winners at 11-to-1 or more. TRIFECTA PAYOFFS WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): (Last 12 Years, $1 Payoff) • $10Place Exacta Odds Part-Wheel: HORSE with ($20) Average: $1,757.75 • $10Average: Exacta 7.28 Part-Wheel: HORSE with ($20) High: $12,504.50 • $10High: Exacta 16.20 Part-Wheel:(, HORSE 2011) with ($20) (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro-Sunday Break, 2002) Low: .35 (, 2004) Low: $33.75 Notable: 6 of last 7 Belmont runner-ups were single-digit odds. (--, 2003) Notable: 3 of the last 4 Belmont trifectas paid $383 or less for a Show Odds buck. Average: 12.10 High: 31.50 (Anak Nakal/Ready’s Echo dead-heat, 2008) SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS Low: 1.00 (Funny Cide, 2003) (Since 2000, NA in 2003, $1 Payoff) Notable: 4 of last 9 Belmont show horses were 20-to-1 or more. Average: $12,237.04 (Average Odds of 4th-Place Finishers is 10.70-to-1) LOWEST-PRICED FAVORITES High: $72,667.00 (Last 12 Years, Odds to $1) (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro-Sunday Break-, 2002) Odds Horse Year Fin. Low: $91.75 .30 2008 dnf (Point Given-A P Valentine--Dollar Bill, 2001) .35 Smarty Jones 2004 2nd Notable: 3 of the last 5 Belmont superfectas paid $5,329 or 1.00 Funny Cide 2003 3rd more. 1.10 2007 2nd 1.15 2005 1st HIGHEST-PRICED RUNNERS IN SUPERFECTA 1.25 2002 8th (Last 12 Years, Odds to $1) 1.25 2009 3rd Odds Horse Year Fin. 1.35 Point Given 2001 1st 70.25 Sarava 2002 1st 38.50 Da’Tara 2008 1st 36.00 2004 1st 34.25 Anak Nakal 2008 3rd

EXPERT SELECTION GRID

Expert Bob Neumeier Mike Battaglia Jeff Siegel Jon White Dick Jerardi Steve Byk (NBC Sports) (NBC Sports) (HRTV) (HRTV) (Phila. Daily News) (SiriusXM Radio) First Revolutionary Orb Revolutionary Overanalyze Orb Orb Second Orb Overanalyze Orb Orb Revolutionary Revolutionary Third Code West Revolutionary Revolutionary Oxbow Oxbow FourthPICKS Freedom Child Golden Soul Freedom Child Freedom Child Freedom Child 1. horse 2. HORSE 3. HORSE 4. HORSE BELMONTDaily Late-Breaking Wagering Online Updates Guide Begin Updates June 4 Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, June 4 Meet The 2013 Belmont Contenders by Johnny D Xpressbet.com

ORB GOLDEN SOUL The Kentucky Derby winner failed to fire in the Preakness Trainer Dallas Stewart has made no bones about the fact ANALYSIS:when finishing Text a well beaten fourth. So, what’s a handi- that Golden Soul, longshot runner-up in the Kentucky capper to do with Orb’s chances in the Belmont Stakes? Derby, came out of that encounter a bit worse for wear. Will Orb rebound on his home track and begin another According to Stewart, after the Kentucky Derby, the son of MAIN CONTENDERS: Text winning streak, or has his hand already been played? Perfect Soul lost weight and was just plain tuckered out. Good questions. And at what odds will Orb be acceptable Stewart skipped the Preakness in order to prepare Golden VALUEto value PLAYS:conscious Texthorseplayers? Will Soul for the Belmont. As a confirmed he start favored in what appears to be stretch runner, it would seem that WAGERINGa large and contentious STRATEGIES field? ($100):Tradi- BELMONT LAST TIMES... the mile and one-half distance of the • $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: HORSE with ($20) tionally, horseplayers have proven The Last … Belmont should be right up his alley. • to$10 posess Exacta short Part-Wheel: memories. HORSE Will they with ($20) However, it should be noted that • $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: HORSE with ($20) Kentucky Derby Winner to Win: recall Orb’s five-win tear that included Thunder (1995) Golden Soul has won just one race the Fountain of Youth and Florida in six career starts, a limited resume and Kentucky Derbies, or concen- Preakness Winner to Win: for tackling such accomplished foes. trate mainly on his loss in ? Afleet Alex (2005) He has a trio of runner-up efforts—his Certainly, Orb appears a horse made initial maiden voyage, in the Lecomte Kentucky Derby runner-up to win: for the testing mile and one-half and last out in the Kentucky Derby. Empire Maker (2003) Belmont distance and he should have Will the 3-year-old colt rebound with a legitimate pace to chase. If the price Kentucky Derby Show Horse to Win: another strong performance or will the is right, Orb could turn out to be a Afleet Alex (2005) Derby melee hangover hamper him? smart Belmont wager. You make the call. Horse to Lay-Off Since Derby to Win: OXBOW Union Rags (2012) REVOLUTIONARY After a creditable race in the Kentucky New Triple Crown Face to Win: took a full cut at win- Derby, Oxbow was overlooked in the (2011) ning the Kentucky Derby by starting Preakness at juicy odds of 15.40-1. In 5 runners in the race. Revolutionary Baltimore, he went to the front and to Win His Debut: performed best of the Pletcher lot by made every pole a winning one by Jose Valdivia (2011 Ruler On Ice) finishing third at contender odds of galloping along easily. Odds are he 6.40-1. Early in the Kentucky Derby, won’t have a similar effortless journey Trainer to Win His Debut: Revolutionary had just one horse around the track in New York, espe- Michael Matz (2012 Union Rags) whipped. That turned out to be the cially if Palace Malice, the Derby pace- Winner From 10+ Lengths Back: perfect plan of attack as closers ral- setter, has his mind on running early. (2006) lied to engulf fading pacesetters. Will Still, Oxbow, by , has the Belmont pace set up similarly? proven to be the type of horse that Remember that Revolutionary had does not need the lead to run well. He won three consecutive races head- came from just off the pace in the to be a very ing into the Kentucky Derby—a maiden test, Withers and close fourth and he rallied in the Rebel to lose by a neck. . That includes quite a bit of development Both of those trips were hampered by outside post posi- in a short time. Is there more gas in the tank right now? tions in mile and one-sixteenth races. It is notable that all Pletcher opted to skip the Preakness with Revolutionary three of Oxbow’s lifetime victories, however, came in wire- to prepare for the Belmont and the freshening certainly to-wire fashion. Don’t expect anywhere near 15-1 odds on ought to help the son of War Pass’ chances in the final leg Oxbow this time around and the old racetrack saw warns of the 2013 Triple Crown. ‘ifPICKS you didn’t attend the wedding, don’t go to the funeral.’ 1. horse 2. HORSE 3. HORSE 4. HORSE BELMONTDaily Late-Breaking Wagering Online Updates Guide Begin Updates June 4 Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, June 4 I T PAYS TO HAVE FRIENDS

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*See website for more details about XB Friends. Must be 21 or older to open an account with Xpressbet, LLC and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. National gambling support line 800.522.4700. Abs-ORB-ing the Belmont Stakes by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter

ANALYSIS: As a contributor to the ORB hype machine, we march Stats & Trends: onward, bloodied but unbowed. Was ORB victimized by a “dead rail” at DERBY WINNERS IN BELMONT Pimlico? Was he put to sleep by sandman and incapable of (Last 10 Years) moving into the turtle pace? Were the Len Ragozin theorists correct when Year Horse Fin. predicting that the 3-5 shot surely would “bounce” coming off the dreaded, 2012 did not compete - top-figure “pair-ups” with just 14 days of recovery time? Whatever. What’s 2011 6th disconcerting to the ORB camp has to be the significance of his regression, 2010 did not compete - and logic suggests that the pace disadvantage does not fully explain the 2009 Mine That Bird 3rd Preakness debacle. On paper anyway, ORB should get added pace from 2008 Big Brown dnf FREEDOM CHILD, PALACE MALICE (even with blinkers off),OXBOW and 2007 did not compete - UNLIMITED BUDGET. But as a tepid favorite in the Belmont Stakes, the 2006 did not compete - loyal ORBites will have to think twice after the Preakness beatdown. 2005 7th 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd MAIN CONTENDERS: OXBOW boasts pedigree for the distance, 2003 Funny Cide 3rd confidence and the experience of the Sunshine Boys (Stevens, Lukas). 2002 War Emblem 8th Fans may look at the Preakness as a Stevens theft, not to be repeated with Note: Derby winner has not won Belmont FREEDOM CHILD signed on and OXBOW likely third or fourth choice. since in 1995. FREEDOM CHILD owns a giant race over the oval, is the “now” horse and speed always rates dangerous going long. REVOLUTIONARY has a blue- PREAKNESS WINNERS IN BELMONT blood pedigree on the dam side, a patient , and needs to (Last 10 Years) avoid annoying traffic trouble.CODE WEST may show slow figs, but is bred Year Horse Fin. to run all day long, has the Baffert influence, and will be a big price.PALACE 2012 did not compete - MALICE had a big Belmont workout and his pedigree helps. Oops, did I 2011 5th forget ORB? 2010 did not compete - 2009 did not compete - 2008 Big Brown dnf VALUE PLAYS: UNLIMITED BUDGET is a fast filly with some damside 2007 Curlin 2nd distance limitations, but should be a price. , anyone? CODE 2006 did not compete - WEST clearly rates a cut below, but 12 panels could set up nicely for him as 2005 Afleet Alex 1st worthy in the gimmicks. 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd 2003 Funny Cide 3rd WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): • $30 Exacta Box: REVOLUTIONARY and ORB ($60) Know This: • $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: REVOLUTIONARY and ORB with CODE WEST Last Call with ALL ($20 if 12 start) Since 2007, four Belmont winners skipped • $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: REVOLUTIONARY and ORB with ALL with both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness CODE WEST ($20 if 12 start) Stakes: Rags to Riches (filly) in 2007, Da’ Tara in 2008, in 2010 and Ruler on Ice in 2011.

PICKS 1. REVOLUTIONARY 2. ORB 3. CODE WEST 4. FREEDOM CHILD Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 4 EXOTIC WAGERING CHART Belmont Stakes exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to plan your attack.

ANALYSIS: Text exacta box: ($2 Wager) trifecta keys: ($1 Wager) 2 horse box ...... $4 1 Horse with 3 others ...... $6 MAIN 3 horseCONTENDERS: box ...... Text . . . . . $12 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 4 horse box ...... $24 1 Horse with 4 others ...... $12 VALUE 5 horse PLAYS: box . .Text ...... $40 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 6 horse box ...... $60 1 Horse with 5 others ...... $20 7 horse box ...... $84 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) WAGERING 8 horse box STRATEGIES ...... ($100):. . .$112 1 Horse with 6 others ...... $30 • $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: HORSE with ($20) (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) • $10exacta Exacta wheel Part-Wheel:: ($2 HORSE Wager) with ($20) 1 Horse with 7 others ...... $42 • $10One ExactaHorse with Part-Wheel: All HORSE with ($20) (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) 6 horse field ...... $10 7 horse field ...... $12 Superfecta box: ($1 Wager) 8 horse field ...... $14 4 Horse Box ...... $24 9 horse field ...... $16 5 Horse Box ...... $120 10 horse field ...... $18 6 Horse Box ...... $360

trifecta box: ($1 Wager) Superfecta wheels: ($1 Wager) 3 Horse Box ...... $6 One Horse with All with All with All 4 Horse Box ...... $24 7 Horse Field ...... $120 5 Horse Box ...... $60 8 Horse Field ...... $210 6 Horse Box ...... $120 9 Horse Field ...... $336 7 Horse Box ...... $210 10 Horse Field ...... $504 8 Horse Box ...... $336 (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)

trifecta wheels: ($1 Wager) One Horse with Two Horses with All with All One Horse with All with All 7 Horse Field ...... $40 (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 8 Horse Field ...... $60 7 Horse Field ...... $30 9 Horse Field ...... $84 8 Horse Field ...... $42 10 Horse Field ...... $112 9 Horse Field ...... $56 (Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1 10 Horse Field ...... $72 or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)

One Horse with Two Horses with All Superfecta Keys: ($1 Wager) (Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a 1 Horse with 3 others ...... $6 All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1) (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 7 Horse Field ...... $10 1 Horse with 4 others ...... $24 8 Horse Field ...... $12 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 9 Horse Field ...... $14 1 Horse with 5 others ...... $60 10 Horse Field ...... $16 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others ...... $120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others ...... $210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) PICKS 1. horse 2. HORSE 3. HORSE 4. HORSE BELMONTDaily Late-Breaking Wagering Online Updates Guide Begin Updates June 4 Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, June 4 Orb Can Bounce Back by Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Reporter

ANALYSIS: No Triple Crown on the line, but a full field makes for an Stats & Trends: interesting betting race. There are several runners in here with good early BELMONT WINNERS IN TC RACES speed, so we should get a legitimate pace for a mile and one-half race. (Since 2000) Gary Stevens put on a masterful ride to “steal” the Preakness, but probably Year Horse TC Race will rate OXBOW just off of the leaders for this one.ORB simply threw in a 2012 Union Rags Derby clunker in Baltimore, but can be expected to rebound on his home track as 2011 Ruler On Ice none the closers should get a nice set-up for their late runs. 2010 Drosselmeyer none 2009 Derby MAIN CONTENDERS: ORB is at the top of this list. He was much the 2008 Da’ Tara none best in the Derby, but for whatever reasons he just never got into the race 2007 Rags to Riches none at Pimlico. The move back to his early home track and the Belmont Stakes 2006 Jazil Derby distance should work to his advantage. We should see a much different 2005 Afleet Alex Derby, Preakness horse in the Belmont. OVERANALYZE and REVOLUTIONARY are part of 2004 Birdstone Derby the Pletcher legion and both of them are closers who have run well over the 2003 Empire Maker Derby Belmont surface in the past. OXBOW had a perfect trip in the Preakness, 2002 Sarava none but has proven to be a very good horse and he is bred to handle the trip. 2001 Point Given Derby, Preakness 2000 Derby

VALUE PLAYS: OVERANALYZE figures to offer good value and may be DERBY, PREAKNESS TOP 4 IN BELMONT sitting on a big race. The slop may have hindered his chances in the Derby (Since 2000) and he won the Futurity at Belmont back in September. GOLDEN SOUL Year Horse Fin. hasn’t been given much credit for his runner-up finish in the Derby, but he 2011 Shackleford 5th ran a legitimately good race and can be a factor again with his late run. 2011 Animal Kingdom 6th 2009 Mine That Bird 3rd WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): 2008 Big Brown dnf • $10 Exacta Box: ORB, OVERANALYZE and REVOLUTIONARY ($60) 2007 Curlin 2nd • $1 Superfecta Key: ORB over OVERANALYZE, REVOLUTIONARY, 2007 4th GOLDEN SOUL and OXBOW ($24) 2005 Afleet Alex 1st • $8 Exacta Box: ORB and GOLDEN SOUL ($16) 2005 Giacomo 7th 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd Recent Belmont Winner Preps 2003 Funny Cide 3rd Year Winner Fin. Race Track 2002 War Emblem 8th 2012 Union Rags 7th Kentucky Derby Churchill 2002 Proud Citizen 5th 2011 Ruler On Ice 2nd Federico Tesio Pimlico 2000 Impeachment 5th 2010 Drosselmeyer 2nd Dwyer Belmont 2009 Summer Bird 6th Kentucky Derby Churchill LARGEST CROWDS 2008 Da’Tara 2nd Pimlico Attendance Winner Year 2007 Rags to Riches 1st Churchill 120,139 Birdstone 2004 2006 Jazil 4th Kentucky Derby Churchill 103,222 Sarava 2002 2005 Afleet Alex 1st Preakness Pimlico 101,864 Empire Maker 2003 94,476 Da’ Tara 2008 85,818 1999 PICKS 85,811 Union Rags 2012 1. ORB 2. OVERANALYZE 3. REVOLUTIONARY 4. GOLDEN SOUL Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 4 Finding The True Stayer by Jeff Siegel HRTV Analyst

ANALYSIS: The Belmont Stakes is all about the trip; the player must Stats & Trends: identify which of the contenders will be best-suited by a mile and one-half RAN IN ALL THREE TC RACES TO WIN over ’s sandy, testing dirt surface. Since none of the entrants (Since 1990) will have ever been tested over this marathon distance, nor will they Year Horse more than likely ever be asked to perform under these conditions again, 2005 Afleet Alex handicapping the third jewel in the Triple Crown becomes an exercise in 2001 Point Given projection. front-runners and deep, one-run closers are least 1998 preferred; one-paced grinders usually have the advantage. 1996 Editor’s Note 1995 Thunder Gulch MAIN CONTENDERS: This year’s edition appears to contain more 1994 than a fair share of front-runners and pressers; the fractions should be 1991 legit if not downright fast. The pace scenario should favor both Kentucky Derby winner ORB, and the Derby’s third-place finisher,REVOLUTIONARY . DERBY, NO PREAKNESS, WON BELMONT The latter colt skipped the Preakness, will show up fit, sharp, and ready to (Since 2000) explode, and will be reunited with Javier Castellano. We like him on top, Year Horse but ORB certainly is better than his dull fourth-place effort in the Preakness 2012 Union Rags indicates; in fact, the Pimlico main track was so heavy and sluggish (despite 2009 Summer Bird being labeled “fast”) that we’re willing to render the Preakness results 2006 Jazil meaningless. 2004 Birdstone 2003 Empire Maker 2000 Commendable VALUE PLAYS: ORB wasn’t the only colt to spin his wheels at Pimlico; WILL TAKE CHARGE was totally unsuited in and must be given DERBY 2ND, SKIPPED PREAKNESS a longshot chance to regain his winter form. PALACE MALICE recently (Last 20 Years) worked sensationally without blinkers and won’t run off like he did in the Year Horse Fin Odds Derby. Both should be double digits on the toteboard and both easily could 2011 Nehro 4th 9-2 outrun their odds. I suggest you find room for both of them in your exotics. 2010 8th 9-5 2006 2nd 9-2 WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): 2003 Empire Maker 1st 2-1 • $1 Superfecta Box: REVOLUTIONARY, ORB, WILL TAKE CHARGE and 2001 Invisible Ink 5th 10-1 PALACE MALICE ($24) 2000 Aptitude 2nd 8-5 • $8 Trifecta Box: REVOLUTIONARY, ORB and WILL TAKE CHARGE ($48) 1994 Strodes Creek 3rd 6-5 • $7 Exacta Part-Wheel: REVOLUTIONARY over ORB, WILL TAKE CHARGE, PALACE MALICE and GOLDEN SOUL ($28) DERBY 1-2 REMATCHES IN BELMONT (Since 1994) Online Updates Begin June 4 Year 1st/ 2nd Horses Fin Make sure to top-off your knowledge by accessing Xpressbet’s Belmont 2011 Animal Kingdom/Nehro 6th/4th Wagering Guide Online Updates beginning June 4. Updates are free and 2003 Funny Cide/Empire Maker 3rd/1st include revised expert analysis and selections based on weather, post posi- 2002 War Emblem/Proud Citizen 8th/5th tions, etc, and Johnny D’s in-depth, horse-by-horse Belmont analysis. 2001 Monarchos/Invisible Ink 3rd/5th 1999 / 3rd/8th 1998 /Victory Gallop 2nd/1st PICKS 1994 /Strodes Creek 2nd/3rd 1. REVOLUTIONARY 2. ORB 3. WILL TAKE CHARGE 4. PALACE MALICe Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 4 Overanalyze Is Intriguing by Jon White HRTV & Santa Anita Analyst

ANALYSIS: While I felt it was likely that ORB would follow his Kentucky Stats & Trends: Derby victory with a win in the Preakness, I did not believe he was the slam- WINNING BELMONT POST POSITIONS dunk in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown that so many people seemed (Since 1905) to think. OXBOW, dismissed at 15-1, purloined the Preakness, thanks largely Post Wins Post Wins to a vintage Gary Stevens ride. OXBOW’s Preakness performance provided 1 23 8 6 trainer D. Wayne Lukas with his record 14th win in a Triple Crown race. Will 2 11 9 4 ORB rebound from the Preakness and take the Belmont? Will OXBOW 3 15 10 2 follow his Kentucky Derby defeat and Preakness victory by capturing the 4 10 11 2 Belmont, a la Afleet Alex, Point Given, Tabasco Cat, Hansel, Risen Star and 5 14 12 0 ? Or will this be one of those years in which a different horse 6 7 13 0 wins the Derby, Preakness and Belmont? 7 12 14 0

MAIN CONTENDERS: In light of their victories in the first two legs ACTIVE BELMONT-WINNING JOCKEYS of the Triple Crown, ORB and OXBOW obviously are main contenders Jockey Year Horse in the Belmont. It certainly was not beneficial toORB that the Preakness John Velazquez 2012 Union Rags pace was surprisingly slow following the sizzling tempo that helped him 2007 Rags to Riches in the Derby at . As for OXBOW, his 106 Beyer Speed Jose Valdivia, Jr. 2011 Ruler On Ice Figure in the Preakness exceeded ORB’s 104 in the “Run for the Roses.” Mike Smith 2010 Drosselmeyer REVOLUTIONARY won the Louisiana Derby before finishing a respectable 2009 Summer Bird third in the Kentucky Derby. FREEDOM CHILD, who like ORB is a son of 2008 Da’Tara , belongs on the list of Belmont contenders following his 13 Fernando Jara 2006 Jazil ¼-length Peter Pan romp in the slop. 2005 Afleet Alex 2004 Birdstone 2002 Sarava VALUE PLAYS: OVERANALYZE is an intriguing value play. He won his Gary Stevens 2001 Point Given career debut, then lost, then won, then lost, then won, then lost, then won, 1998 Victory Gallop then lost. According to that pattern, a win is next. Also, OVERANALYZE’s 1995 Thunder Gulch performance in the Kentucky Derby was sneakily better than most people Mick Kinane 1990 realize. Hardly anyone noticed that OVERANALYZE actually came home with good energy to finish eleventh after being last in the field of 19 at one Know This: point on the final turn. Woody’s World Perhaps no record in WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): history is safer than ’ un- • $16 Win: OVERANALYZE ($16) fathomable streak of saddling five consecu- • $2 Exacta Box: OVERANALYZE, ORB, REVOLUTIONARY, tive Belmont Stakes winners. The streak FREEDOM CHILD, OXBOW, PALACE MALICE and UNLIMITED BUDGET began when came back ($84), and in the event any of those seven do not run, in order I then just 5 days after winning the Grade 1 Met would prefer GOLDEN SOUL and WILL TAKE CHARGE Mile to score the 1982 Belmont. Stephens added trophies with , , Crème Fraiche and Connection. Only Swale was favored. PICKS 1. OVERANALYZE 2. ORB 3. REVOLUTIONARY 4. FREEDOM CHILD Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 4 Belmont Brews Down To 2 by Dick Jerardi Daily News Columnist

ANALYSIS: When historians look back at the first two legs of the 2013 Stats & Trends: Triple Crown, they will be able to point to a classic case study of the ODDS-ON BELMONT FAVORITES effects of pace. The Kentucky Derby’s hot, contested pace helped the top (Since 1940) five finishers come from the back. The no-pace Preakness certainly aided Total: 31 OXBOW in running the race of his life. In the here and now, we have to Winners: 12 what all that meant. Was ORB made to look great by that Derby Win %: 38.7 pace and/or was he made to look ordinary when uncomfortable inside Last to Compete: Big Brown (.30-to-1, 2008) horses and near a disadvantageous rail in the Preakness? If the answer Last to Win: (.60-to-1, 1978) is somewhere in-between, will that be good enough to win the Belmont Stakes against more rested horses with differing ability levels? This pace, ODDS-ON BELMONT BUSTS and its possible effect on the outcome, with Peter Pan winnerFREEDOM (Last 7 Odds-On Choices Have Lost) CHILD, OXBOW and who knows what mystery guest, is as difficult to Year Horse Fin. Odds predict as the first two legs turned out to be. 2008 Big Brown dnf 1-5 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd 1-5 MAIN CONTENDERS: OXBOW is 3-for-3 with a clear lead, 0-for- 1998 Real Quiet 2nd 4-5 8 without it. An unlucky sixth in the Derby, OXBOW was a fortunate, 1989 2nd 4-5 but deserving, Preakness winner. ORB had his five-race winning streak 1987 4th 4-5 broken when a non-threatening fourth in the Preakness. FREEDOM 1981 3rd 4-5 CHILD was dazzling in his blowout Peter Pan win, but the setup could not 1979 3rd 1-5 have been better. GOLDEN SOUL closed to be second behind that hot Derby pace, but postponing a planned workout and having his trainer FILLIES TO WIN BELMONT say the colt’s appetite is still returning does not give one a ton of comfort. Filly Year REVOLUTIONARY appears best of what could be a half-dozen Todd Rags to Riches 2007 Pletcher horses in the race. 1905 1867 VALUE PLAYS: OXBOW’s Preakness win is probably going to be STATES TO PRODUCE WINNERS looked upon as a fluke by most bettors, but this colt has shown promise all Wins State along. Circumstances were finally in his favor and he took advantage with a 95 Kentucky powerhouse performance. 11 Virginia 7 New Jersey WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): 5 Florida • $80 Exacta: ORB over REVOLUTIONARY ($80) 3 New York, • $20 Exacta: REVOLUTIONARY over ORB ($20) Tennessee Oldest Triple Crown Event 2 California The Belmont Stakes, first run in 1867, is the oldest Triple Crown event. It Maryland predates the Preakness by six years and the Kentucky Derby by eight. Texas

Know This: Favorite Sons PICKS 61 out of 144 previous Belmont Stakes have been won by the favorite (42%). 1. ORB 2. REVOLUTIONARY 3. OXBOW 4. FREEDOM CHILD Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 4 Dual Winner or Third Wheel? by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host

ANALYSIS: There will be no Triple Crown try, but a potentially corking Stats & Trends: clash between two 2013 Classic winners with contrasting styles gives this FASTEST WINNING TIMES Belmont Stakes plenty of intrigue. Derby hero ORB and Preakness thief Time Horse Year OXBOW meet in New York with ‘what if’ questions as a backdrop. Had 2:24 1973 the Derby pace not gone nuclear, Lukas and Stevens might be going for 2:26 1989 a . Had Shug McGaughey’s streaking Malibu Moon colt not been A.P. Indy 1992 confined to the most difficult part of the Pimlico strip, the Phipps-Janney 2:26-2/5 Point Given 2001 color-bearer might be Crown eligible. Instead, the pair will vie for ‘dual- Risen Star 1988 classic’ and commensurate 3yo Eclipse honors against a full gate of eager, 2:26-4/5 Affirmed 1978 upset-minded sophomores. BIGGEST BLOWOUTS MAIN CONTENDERS: ORB and OXBOW will vie for favoritism and (Since 1905, Lengths) though we’ve seen many styles of runners in the exotics in recent Belmonts, Margin Horse Year 60% of superfecta fillers (17/28 since 2006) have run in one or both 31 Secretariat 1973 Crown races. Besides the Derby and Preakness winners, GOLDEN SOUL, 25 1943 REVOLUTIONARY, GIANT FINISH, OVERANALYZE, PALACE MALICE and 20 Man o’ War 1920 WILL TAKE CHARGE line up in New York after filling out the Derby chart. 14-3/4 Risen Star 1988 Tom Albertrani’s barn is red-hot coming into the Test of the Champion and 14 Conquistador Cielo 1982 FREEDOM CHILD looks to become the first Peter Pan-Belmont winner since 14 1987 AP Indy in ‘92. 12-1/2 Point Given 2001 CLOSEST FINISHES VALUE PLAYS: sendsCODE WEST after the carnations (Since 1905) using the same Baltimore trajectory employed by (tough-beat 2nd) Margin Horse Year a year ago. A successful Belmont effort would be yet another endorsement Nose 1936 for this year’s Louisiana Derby where CODE WEST loomed and tired to 6th. 1962 For all the bashing Todd Pletcher receives about his Derby record, he should Victory Gallop 1998 gain equal amount of praise for his 8: 1-3-3 Belmont Stakes mark since 2006. Head 1908 He may send as many as five postward in this edition. Affirmed 1978 Hansel 1991 WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): Lemon Drop Kid 1999 • $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel: ORB with REVOLUTIONARY and OXBOW with Rags to Riches 2007 REVOLUTIONARY, OXBOW, CODE WEST, FREEDOM CHILD, UNLIMITED BUDGET, PALACE MALICE and OVERANALYZE ($60) Know This: • $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: REVOLUTIONARY, OXBOW with ORB with First-Time is the Charm REVOLUTIONARY, OXBOW, CODE WEST, FREEDOM CHILD, The last two Belmont runnings have been UNLIMITED BUDGET, PALACE MALICE, OVERANALYZE ($24) won by trainers starting their first horses • $4 Exacta Part-Wheel: ORB with CODE WEST, FREEDOM CHILD, in the race - Michael Matz last year with UNLIMITED BUDGET and PALACE MALICE ($16) Union Rags and Kelly Breen with Ruler On Ice in 2011.

PICKS 1. ORB 2. REVOLUTIONARY 3. OXBOW 4. Freedom child Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 4 COVERAGE BEGINS BELMONT SATURDAY AT 11:15 am