PF Topic Analysis March 2016
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PF Topic Analysis March 2016 Public Forum debaters will be discussing “Resolved: The United States should withdraw its military presence from Okinawa.” We’ll begin by taking a closer look at the meaning of the key phrases in the resolution. Resolutional Analysis The United States is the actor for this resolution. Hopefully, you know what the United States is! This part seems pretty self-explanatory, so we’ll move on. Should is a word that is typically understood to demand a particular policy action—in this case, withdrawal from Okinawa. Although I do not anticipate many debates on this particular resolution will hinge on arguments about the word “should,” you may nevertheless wish to review our more thorough discussion of its nuances from last month’s topic analysis. 1 Withdraw is defined by Merriam-Webster as “to take back or away” or “to remove from use or cultivation.” In other words, “to withdraw” can be thought of as basically meaning “to exit” or “to pull back from.” However, this topic takes place in a military context, so we’ll want to also check the military definition of the term. According to Rick Baillergeon (retired U.S. Army Infantry Officer Associate Professor of Tactics at U.S. Army Command and General Staff College) and John Sutherland (retired U.S. Army Infantry Officer, former Professor of Tactics at the U.S. Army Infantry Center at Fort Benning and at the Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, current employee at the Joint Center for Operational Analysis) “withdrawal” is defined thusly in military parlance: Is a form of retrograde in which a unit is in contact, but not necessarily under pressure. In this operation, the unit disengages from the enemy and moves to an assembly area or a new defensive position. A unit may conduct a withdrawal unassisted or with assistance from other friendly forces. Within the withdrawal, there are two basic types – under enemy pressure and not under enemy pressure. We will discuss each in detail momentarily. First, we will highlight some basic principles that are critical to achieving success in either type. That seems to largely fit with the civilian understanding of the word. There is significant discussion within military literature of various types of withdrawal during the course of combat, but we need not become concerned with those here. A withdrawal from Okinawa would involve the termination of an occupation, not a tactical maneuver during an active battle with an enemy. Therefore, the various sub-varieties of military withdrawal tactics aren’t relevant to debates on this topic. 2 Here is the important thing about “withdraw”—it is absolute. In other words, “withdraw” is not synonymous with terms like “reduce,” “decrease,” “curtail,” etc. Pro teams on this topic cannot meet their burden by arguing that the U.S. should close one (or several) bases. They will need to defend total removal of America’s military forces from the island. However, it would be legitimate for pros to advocate that bases be moved from Okinawa to the Japanese mainland, or elsewhere in the region (more on that later). As long as all U.S. forces leave Okinawa, it’s fair game. Nevertheless, I have a feeling that plenty of pros on this topic will try to get away with strategies endorsing less- than-full removal of U.S. forces. To check back against those tactics, we’ll also be releasing a supplemental topicality file covering the “withdraw” debate at-length. It will be published within a day or two or this guide, so don’t forget to check back. For now, though, let’s keep going. Its is possessive. Since we know the U.S. is the actor, “its” means America needs to remove troops and other military operatives that belong to the United States. The definition of military presence might seem intuitively obvious to you, but there is actually some nuance involved. Obviously, soldiers are included, but what about infrastructure, vehicles, weapons and gear, support staff, intelligence capabilities, non-combat peacekeepers, unmanned drone operations, etc. etc. etc.? 3 Like “withdraw,” the phrase “military presence” must be defined contextually, within the discipline of national security. However, experts don’t necessarily speak with a unified voice when it comes to whether these borderline considerations should technically be considered “presence.” For that reason, you’ll want to make sure you have an interp to support your pro case, and potentially a few additional interps to check back against opponents’ pro cases you might consider unfair. Most generally, “military presence” can be understood to mean everything the U.S. military owns that is stationed abroad. However, most definitions suggest that “presence” is specific to people/things stationed as a part of planned, routine, non-combat functions, like deterring potential adversaries. It does not typically include people/things deployed as a part of an active combat response to an unplanned crisis. Here is evidence: (James Thomason, Project Leader, Institute for Defense Analysis, “Transforming US Overseas Military Presence: Evidence and Options for DoD,” http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.122.1144&rep=rep1&type=pdf, July 2002) US overseas military presence consists of all the US military assets in overseas areas that are engaged in relatively routine non-combat activities or functions. Collectively, these assets constitute one of a set of very important military instruments of national power and influence. It is regularly asserted within the Department of Defense that these overseas military presence activities promote key security objectives, such as deterrence, assurance of friends and allies, the provision of timely crisis response capabilities, regional stability and, generally, security conditions that in turn promote freedom and prosperity. In other words, according to the definition above, a military ship that patrols a particular region for the purposes of monitoring things and/or “flexing” to discourage aggressive actions from foreign nations would be considered a component of “presence.” A military ship deployed to attack an enemy vessel in response to an act of war would not be “presence.” 4 Expanding on that interpretation a bit, here is further evidence clarifying that “presence” does include units engaged in training foreign militaries, gathering intelligence, and/or conducting peacekeeping: (James Thomason, Project Leader, Institute for Defense Analysis, “Transforming US Overseas Military Presence: Evidence and Options for DoD,” http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.122.1144&rep=rep1&type=pdf, July 2002) Our working definition of US overseas military presence is that it consists of all the US military assets in overseas areas that are engaged in relatively routine, regular, non-combat activities or functions. By this definition, forces that are located overseas may or may not be engaging in presence activities. If they are engaging in combat (such as Operation Enduring Freedom), or are involved in a one-time non-combat action (such as an unscheduled carrier battle group deployment from the United States aimed at calming or stabilizing an emerging crisis situation), then they are not engaging in presence activities. Thus, an asset that is located (or present) overseas may or may not be “engaged in presence activities,” may or may not be “doing presence.” We have thus far defined presence activities chiefly in “negative” terms—what they are not. In more positive terms, what exactly are presence activities, i.e., what do presence activities actually entail doing? Overseas military presence activities are generally viewed as a subset of the overall class of activities that the US government uses in its efforts to promote important military/security objectives [Dismukes, 1994]. A variety of recurrent, overseas military activities are normally placed under the “umbrella” concept of military presence. These include but are not limited to US military efforts overseas to train foreign militaries; to improve inter- operability of US and friendly forces; to peacefully and visibly demonstrate US commitment and/or ability to defend US interests; to gain intelligence and familiarity with a locale; to conduct peacekeeping activities; and to position relevant, capable US military assets such that they are likely to be available sooner rather than later in case an evolving security operation or contingency should call for them. However, per this evidence, “presence” excludes diplomatic efforts, economic negotiations, etc.: (Charles Greer, Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, “The Future of Forward Presence,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi- bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA234227&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, 1991) To establish a conceptual framework for this paper, I developed the following definition of forward presence within the context of national defense: the visible employment of US military personnel and/or military material as a deterrent outside of the continental United States (OCONUS) at any point along the operational continuum short of involving major US conventional forces in combat. 5 My simplistic definition could be subject to endless scholarly debate. It includes small unit combat operations of limited scope and duration and peacetime contingency operations such as Desert Shield in Saudi Arabia, but it excludes the subsequent combat operation designated Desert Storm. It includes our military activities in Alaska and Hawaii. It excludes any diplomatic, economic, social or psychological activities that do not have