Princeton Public Affairs Group, Inc. 2009 Post Election Analysis The Race for New Jersey Governor As one of two gubernatorial elections in the country, this race generated its own amount of national attention which of course was further spurred by President Barack Obama and other national figures coming to the Garden State to make their pitch. While Democrats in New Jersey have carried presidential races since 1992, tight polls throughout the election further highlighted national interest as a possible referendum on the Obama Administration’s and Democratic party’s ability to lead heading into the 2010 elections. Over 2 million votes were cast in this election. The incumbent, Jon Corzine a Democrat, after making a name for himself on Wall Street entered politics nine years ago as a U.S. Senate candidate and sought a second term as Governor having weathered the economic hurdles that have plagued state capitals across the country. Chris Christie, a former U.S. Attorney and one-term Morris County Freeholder, ran on a platform of cutting taxes and political change. Chris Daggett, a former Environmental Protection Commissioner, ran on the Independence line and hit his stride with voters during October. Christie, age 47, gained notoriety around the state for prosecuting political corruption over the last seven years and will be the state’s first Republican gubernatorial winner since 1997. Results indicate that Christie was victorious with 49 percent of the vote, Corzine received 45 percent and Daggett with 5 percent of the vote. Christie’s vote margin was by more than 105,000 votes with big wins in Ocean and Monmouth counties and beating Corzine in the Democratic counties of Middlesex and Gloucester. Not Politics as Usual One of the most discussed dimensions of this year’s race was the presence of third-party candidate, Chris Daggett. Returns show that Mr. Daggett received 5 percent of the vote. Following some positive press and solid performances in the debates, Mr. Daggett’s poll numbers reached their high in October with 20 percent of the vote. Mr. Daggett qualified for matching funds, received the Star-Ledger endorsement and was feared as a potential “spoiler” by both major parties. The First Lieutenant Governor Stemming from incidences where the Senate President stepped in as Governor when the elected Governor was not available to serve, legislation was passed and then the position was officially created via a State Constitutional amendment which as approved by voters on November 8, 2005 creating a new office to be realized in this election. The selections for running mates included Governor Corzine’s designation of State Senator Loretta Weinberg, Chris Christie’s choice of Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno and Chris Daggett’s pick of Dr. Frank Esposito, a former Kean University professor and administrator. With Christie’s victory all eyes will be on how the Lieutenant Governor’s role and office develops as the Constitution provides few specifics: The Governor shall appoint the Lieutenant Governor to serve as the head of a principal department or other executive or administrative agency of State government, or delegate to the Lieutenant Governor duties of the office of Governor, or both. The Governor shall not appoint the Lieutenant Governor to serve as Attorney General. The Lieutenant Governor shall in addition perform such other duties as may be provided by law. (Article V, Section I, paragraph 10) The Money Factor As in any political race, financing plays an important role—particularly in New Jersey where much of the state is sandwiched between two of the most expensive media markets in the country. Because of the national implications of this race heading into next year’s mid-term elections, the Republican and Democratic Governors Associations spent approximately $8 million to support their respective candidates in addition to funds spent by the major parties, labor unions and other interest groups. Governor Corzine has a history of financing his own campaigns. In 2000 when he ran for U.S. Senate he spent $60 million and when he ran for Governor four years ago he spent more than $40 million. While the final numbers are net yet in for this race, it appears that the Governor could have spent as much as $30 million. Because Mr. Christie accepted public financing, he was limited to spending $11 million and Mr. Daggett spent less than $1.5 million. What Motivated the Electorate Even though Democratic registrations in New Jersey approach a 2-1 margin over Republicans, various factors weighed on the minds of voters. With unemployment rates in New Jersey at 9.8 percent and property taxes some of the highest in the country, the economy and managing costs were on the minds of many New Jerseyans. Additionally, turnout in the suburbs was strong, while urban-based voting was not as large as some had expected. Another factor for voters was the negative tone of the race. Attacks, sometimes personal in nature, were a component cited by voters in making their decision. Early exit polling conducted by various news organizations indicated that one-third of Garden State voters voted against a candidate rather than for him: 20 percent of Corzine’s supporters and 42 percent of individuals who supported Christie indicated they voted more against the opponent then for their candidate. Ballot Question Also on this year’s ballot was an open space bond issue that passed by approximately 52 percent. Under this initiative the State will borrow $400 million to replenish the Garden State Preservation Trust. This bond issue sets aside $218 million for open-space purchases, $146 million for farmland preservation, $24 million for wetlands protection and $12 million to save historic sites. Lame Duck Legislative Session Typically by this time in November, a legislative calendar for the Lame Duck session (November, December and early January) has been released. This year, however, the calendar has not yet been made available. The close nature of the gubernatorial race, speculation of leadership changes in both legislative houses and persisting economic pressures have continued to raise speculation regarding how much business will be addressed during the remaining days of the 213th Legislative session. Princeton Public Affairs Group will share the legislative calendar as soon as it is made available. Legislative Races of Interest While the entire General Assembly was up for election this year a handful of districts saw competitive races. Democrats appear to have lost one seat, but will most likely retain a 47-33 majority. Final results in Districts 3 and 4 are not yet confirmed. District 1 (Part of Atlantic and Cumberland Counties and all of Cape May County) This was deemed one of the most competitive races. Democratic incumbents, Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam defeated by a slim margin Republicans Michael Donohue, a former prosecutor, and John McCann, a realtor. District 3 (All of Salem County and parts of Cumberland and Gloucester County) Democratic incumbent John Burzichelli appears to have held on to his seat while his running mate Assemblywoman Celeste Riley may squeak past Republican Robert Villare. District 4 (Part of Camden and Gloucester Counties) Another hotly contested race in South Jersey included Democratic incumbent, Paul Moriarty running with William Collins. They faced off against Republicans Eugene E. T. Lawrence and Domenick DiCicco. Current Assemblywoman Sandra Love did not run. Moriarty and DiCicco appear to be victorious where the Republicans ultimately may pick up a seat in this district. District 14 (Part of Mercer and Middlesex Counties) This legislative district is one of the few in the state that is widely considered competitive between the parties. Currently, the Senate seat is filled by Republican Bill Baroni with two Democratic members of the Assembly, Linda Greenstein and Wayne DeAngelo. The incumbents defeated Republicans Rob Calabro and William T. Harvey, Jr. as well as Modern Whig Party candidate Gene L. Baldassari. District 36 (Part of Bergen, Essex and Passaic Counties) Democratic incumbents Fred Scalera and Gary Schaer defeated Republicans Carmen Pio Costa and Donald Diorio. In the State Senate, there were two special elections. The first was in the 23rd District to fill the two-year unexpired term of Representative Leonard Lance (R-7th Congressional District). Assemblyman Michael Doherty (R) defeated Democrat Harvey Baron with 72 percent of the vote to fill the seat vacated when Representative Lance was elected to Congress last year. The second special election occurred in the 6th District where James Beach (D) took the seat after Representative John Adler (D-3rd Congressional District) was elected to Congress. Beach won yesterday’s election over Republican Joseph Adolf with 58 percent of the vote to serve out the rest of the term. County Races of Interest Republicans captured much of the news on the county level, picking up seats in Bergen, Passaic, Monmouth and Cumberland counties. Atlantic Republicans currently have a 6-3 majority on the Freeholder Board and defended three seats in this election. Republicans Frank Fiordano won the At-Large seat as Frank Formica and James Curcio won Freeholder District seats. Bergen Republicans won two seats on the Board of Freeholders. John Driscoll and Robert Hermanson prevailed over Democratic incumbents, Julie O’Brien and Vernon Walton. Burlington On the Freeholder Board the Republicans had a 3-2 majority and two of their incumbents did not seek re-election. Democrats failed to win one of the two seats in order to gain control of their county government as Republicans Bruce Garganio and Mary Ann O’Brien were victorious. Cumberland Republicans picked up yet another seat on the Board while Democratic incumbents Louis Magazzu and Nelson Thompson were re-elected. Monmouth For the first time in twenty years, Democrats gained control of the Freeholder Board last year and currently hold a 3-2 majority.