LAND MARINE ATMOSPHERE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY
ISSUE 51 / APRIL 2015
El Niño – tracking a global Facts climate phenomenon > El Niño can lead to excess/ deficit in rainfall, thus affecting food production > The last major El Niño cost millions of Euros, damaging crops and infrastructure in Australia and Asia > The counterpart of El Niño is La Niña; together they are phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon
HOW COPERNICUS SUPPORTS TRACKING A CLIMATE PHENOMENON Benefits The El Niño phenomenon occurs every three to seven years when the water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. This sets off a chain reaction of weather events around the > Tracking and monitoring world – some devastating and some beneficial, having various impacts on water supply and food El Niño conditions production. The last major El Niño emerged in 1997/98, followed by weak and moderate ones in > Better understanding of 2002/03, 2004/05, 2006/07 and 2009/10. In 2015 this global, disruptive climate phenomenon might be major El Niño effects on its way again. According to the World Meteorological Organization, tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomalies from October 2014 to present have been 0.5°to 1.0° Celsius above normal, which have approached or exceeded various El Niño thresholds. Forecasters say that there is a 50 to 60 percent chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the summer 2015. In Europe, the main effects of El Niño are noticeable in winter and include colder, drier conditions in northern Europe, and wetter, milder conditions in southern Europe. Copernicus satellites allow detecting and tracking the course of El Niño. Satellites collect valuable Policy Objectives information about the Pacific Ocean’s surface, temperature and colour, which can indicate the formation of an El Niño event. In addition, satellite data concerning soil moisture reflect El Niño-related climate > European External Action variations. With such data, heavy rain and drought conditions can be detected showing deviations from Service (EEAS) average conditions. During El Niño periods, limitations > EC Humanitarian Aid and Civil in the supply of terrestrial moisture result in vegetation Protection (ECHO) water stress and reduced evaporation in eastern and > International Charter Space central Australia, southern Africa and South America. and Major Disasters Recent declines in global average continental > European Climate Change evaporation might reflect such a transition to El Niño Programme (ECCP) PACIFIC OCEAN conditions.
Surface soil moisture anomalies showing El Niño conditions in February 1998. Blue colours indicate wetter than normal conditions, red colours dryer than normal conditions. Land masses displayed in grey are places where soil moisture
no soil moisture observation cannot be detected due to dense vegetation or frozen surfaces. Soil moisture anomalies (m3/m3) Source: Soil moisture data from ESA’s Climate Change Initiative; -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 Based on: DMSP SSM/I & ERS 1-2 SCAT www.esa.int/copernicus • www.copernicus.eu ISSUE 51 / APRIL 2015
Sentinel-3 MONITORING OCEAN PHYSICS FROM SPACE
Sentinel-3 will measure sea- surface topography, sea- and land-surface temperatures and ocean- and land-surface colour by providing: > frequent revisit times > near-real time product delivery > global coverage > rapid mapping support > high accuracy and reliability 15 October 1997 15 October 1998
Sea-surface temperature anomaly in Kelvin -4.8 -3.6 -2.4 -1.2 0.0 1.2 2.4 3.6 4.8
A classic signature of El Niño is a dramatic change in sea-surface temperature across the Pacific Ocean. The left image shows warmer than usual waters along the equator (red colours) on 15 October 1997, leading to a breakdown of the equatorial current. Just one year later, after the El Niño phase subsided, the temperature distribution was radically different. On 15 October 1998, the equatorial current (blue colours) was strong. Source: Sea-surface temperature data from ESA’s Climate Change Initiative; Based on: Gap filled combination of ERS ATSR-2 & NOAA AVHRR-14 Satellites are vital tools for monitoring the ocean and how it can affect the climate, leading to phenomena such as El Niño. Copernicus Contribution Next Steps This is especially true, as for vast areas of the open ocean no other data source is available.
Copernicus services support El Niño > Advance understanding of El Niño monitoring by providing timely and accurate phenomena by fostering the use of geo-spatial information on the state of the satellites to map and monitor relevant oceans and the land. parameters > Improve the predictability of El Niño events Products through increased integration of fit-for- > Ocean physics analysis (sea-surface purpose satellite products in re-analysis temperature, ocean colour, sea-surface and modelling topography) > Provide stable, long-term, climate-quality > Land parameters such as soil moisture and satellite data products to address El Niño vegetation characteristics and related phenomena > Impact assessments after El Niño events
El Niño affects fish distribution
www.esa.int/copernicus • www.copernicus.eu