WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2003 40 35 2000 ) 2 10 30 2001 Marshall Islands Caroline Islands 2002 Western Eastern Kiribati Line Islands 2003 0 Kiribati Nauru 25 Rawaki Island Papua Solomon Islands New Guinea Tuvalu Tokelau Island Marquesas -10 Islands Samoa Tuamotu Island 20 Vanuatu Fiji Society -20 Niue Islands New Tonga Cook Islands Caledonia Austral Island Pitcaim Island Australia 15 -30 New Area of ozone hole (million km Zealand -40 10 150160 170 180170 160 150 140 130 -1.0-0.5 0.5 1.0 5 For information about WMO, please contact: For more information about the contents of this brochure, please contact: Communications and Public Affairs Office World Climate Programme Department World Meteorological Organization World Meteorological Organization 0 7bis, avenue de la Paix 7bis, avenue de la Paix August September October November December P.O. Box 2300 P.O. Box 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2, SWITZERLAND CH-1211 Geneva 2, SWITZERLAND Tel: (+41-22) 730 83 14 / 730 83 15 Tel: (+41-22) 730 83 77 Fax: (+41-22) 730 80 27 Fax: (+41-22) 730 80 42 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.wmo.int Web: http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcp/wcp_prog.htm World Meteorological Organization Weather • Climate • Water WMO-No. 966 2 WMO-No. 966 © 2004, World Meteorological Organization ISBN 92-63-10966-4 Front cover: Daily size of the Antarctic ozone hole from 1 August to 30 November for the period 2000-2003. (Source: Ozone data analyses are prepared in collaboration with the WMO World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Centre in Toronto, Canada through the cooperation and support of the Meteorological Service of Canada) Back cover: Snow cover anomalies for February 2003 (departures in percentage from the average in the 1988-2002 base period). Snow cover data is derived from visible satellite imagery using the special sensor microwave imager. Together with positive anomalies over Central Asia in December 2002 and over China in January 2003, the February 2003 values contributed to the second highest snow cover during the 2002/2003 winter season since records began in 1967. (Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, USA) Bottom: Sea-surface temperature anomalies for 2003 (departures in degrees Celsius from the average in the 1982-1996 base period). Lighter and darker red indicate regions with warmer than average sea- surface temperature. (Sources: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand; Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, USA) NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This statement is a summary of the information provided by the Hadley Centre of the Met Office, UK, the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; and the National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service and the National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Other contributors were from the following WMO Member countries and territories: Argentina, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, India, Japan, Mauritius, the Netherlands, New Zealand, World Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, as well as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Meteorological in New York, the Drought Monitoring Centre in Nairobi, the World Glacier Monitoring Service in Zürich, and Organization the AGRHYMET Centre in Niamey. Geneva - Switzerland 3 FOREWORD Since 1993, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to improved protection of life and property. Enhanced through the Commission for Climatology and in coopera- weather, climate and hydrological services are being tion with its Members, has issued annual statements on the implemented to reduce the adverse human, social and status of the global climate. This year’s statement describes economic impacts of natural disasters and of extreme the climatic conditions, including extreme weather events, weather and climate events, through increased awareness for the year 2003 and provides a historical perspective on and preparedness of people and societies to face such some of the variability and trends that have occurred since events. The improved observing systems and active the nineteenth century. The statements complement the climate monitoring and research programmes increas- periodic assessments of the WMO/United Nations ingly support governments and world decision makers in Environment Programme (UNEP) Intergovernmental Panel industry and commerce in deciding on correct responses on Climate Change (IPCC), which provide valuable input to to overcome problems and to exploit advantageous envi- national and international negotiations. ronmental conditions. New scientific and technological The information contained in this statement developments and growing social and economic demands enhances the scientific understanding of the changes in are being focused through stronger cooperation among climate and the associated impacts that have occurred in many disciplines, within and among countries, in order to the past, making it possible to improve on our projections seize the full benefits of weather, climate and water fore- for the future. Through continuing research and the casts and warnings while protecting the environment. collection of consistent and complete observations by WMO will actively contribute to the development of WMO and its Members, progress towards an even better a more integrated approach to global observing based on understanding of the Earth’s climate system is possible. its surface- and space-based networks. The timely provi- The influence of weather and climate on human well sion of authoritative climate statements, climate being, and the inherent impact on the environment, were assessments, climate reviews and descriptions of climate evident during the past year. Tropical cyclones in various variations and their historical perspective will continue its parts of the world caused loss of life and destroyed prop- important role in WMO’s contribution to sustainable erty. Droughts affected the livelihood of many people, and development. heat waves caused thousands of deaths in Europe and south-west Asia. However, the variability attributable to natural climate also produced benefits to society, ranging from the abundance of enriching sunlight for vegetable and orchard crops in western Europe, to the above normal rainfall across the Sahelian region of western Africa and the enhanced precipitation over Afghanistan and neighbouring countries. One of the major challenges for the meteorological (M. Jarraud) and hydrological communities is the need to contribute Secretary-General 4 GLOBAL TEMPERATURES 0.8 Figure 1 — Combined (a) Global DURING 2003 0.6 annual land (near surface) 0.4 and sea-surface temperature anomalies from 1861-2003 The global mean surface temperature in 2003 0.2 (departures in degrees was 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 annual aver- 0 age. This value makes 2003 the third warmest Celsius from the average in -0.2 the 1961-1990 base period) year in the instrumental temperature record -0.4 Temperature anomaly for (a) the globe; (b) the since 1861, just behind 2002 (+0.48°C). The northern hemisphere north of -0.6 Smoothed with a warmest year remains 1998 (+0.55°C). Globally- binomial filter 30°N; (c) the Tropics -0.8 averaged temperatures in the lower and middle (30°N-30°S); and (d) the 0.8 troposphere derived from NOAA satellites also (b) Northern hemisphere (north of 30°N) southern hemisphere south of indicate that 2003 was the third warmest year 0.6 30°S. The solid red curves on record for that part of the atmosphere since 0.4 have had subdecadal the beginning of annual satellite measure- 0.2 timescale variations ments in 1979. At the surface, all of the 10 0 smoothed with a binomial C) ° filter. Anomalies (in degrees warmest years have occurred since 1990, -0.2 Celsius) for 2003 are: including each year since 1997. The five -0.4 +0.46 (a); +0.71 (b); warmest years now include, in decreasing -0.6 +0.45 (c); and +0.15 (d). order: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2001 and 1995. Since -0.8 (Sources: IPCC, 2001 and the twentieth century, the increase in global 0.8 Hadley Centre, The Met surface temperature has been between 0.6 and 0.6 (c) Tropics (30°N-30°S) Office, and Climatic 0.7°C. The rate of change for the period since 0.4 Research Unit, University of Difference from 1961–1990 ( 1976 is roughly three times that for the past 0.2 East Anglia, UK). century as a whole. Analyses of proxy data for 0 the northern hemisphere indicate that late twentieth century warmth is unprecedented for -0.2 at least the past millennium. -0.4 Calculated separately for both hemi- -0.6 spheres, the departures of the 2003 -0.8 temperatures from the long-term average for 0.8 (d) Southern hemisphere (south of 30°S) the northern hemisphere (+0.59°C) and for the 0.6 southern hemisphere (+0.32°C) are both the 0.4 third warmest in the instrumental record. In 0.2 particular, the tropics (between 30°N and 30°S) 0 contributed to the warmth, although the land -0.2 areas poleward of 30°N and parts of the North -0.4 Atlantic were also particularly warm. Europe -0.6 experienced unprecedented heat during June, -0.8 July and August. The Mediterranean and Near 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 5 90°N ° Figure 2 — Global annual 90 N (a) temperature anomaly 60°N 60°N percentiles for 2003 based 30°N on a gamma distribution for 30°N 0° the 1961-1990 base period, 0° calculated in five-degree grid 30°S boxes. Orange and brown 30°S 60°S indicate regions where the 60°S 90°S temperature anomalies were 180° 120°W60°W0° 60°E 120°E 180° 90°S estimated to be within the 180° 120°W60°W0° 60°E 120°E 180° 0 2 10 90 98 100 highest (warm) 10 and 2 90°N per cent, respectively, of the (b) ° climatological occurrences.