Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in 2010 – 2050: State Electoral Districts

6 April 2010

Report by Access Economics Pty Limited for Alzheimer's Australia Vic State Electoral Districts

Contents

Executive Summary ...... i 1 Background ...... 1 2 Modelling methodology ...... 2 3 Dementia projections by State Electoral Districts ...... 5 4 Mapping of dementia prevalence ...... 28 Appendix A ...... 34 References ...... 37

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document and any attachments, the uncertain nature of economic data, forecasting and analysis means that Access Economics Pty Limited is unable to make any warranties in relation to the information contained herein. Access Economics Pty Limited, its employees and agents disclaim liability for any loss or damage which may arise as a consequence of any person relying on the information contained in this document and any attachments.

i State Electoral Districts

Executive Summary

Australia is currently facing a dementia epidemic. The prevalence of dementia in Australia is expected to increase from 257,000 in 2010 to over 1.1 million in 2050 (Access Economics, 2009). This growth will primarily be driven by increased population numbers and demographic ageing, although modifiable risk factors (such as a reduction in physical activity) will also play a part.

In line with the projected increase in dementia prevalence, there will be a strong increase in the demand for dementia care services. Our modelling has found that on the basis of current policy settings, there will be shortages in the supply of care for people with dementia (Access Economics 2009a). Thus planning a policy response now, to accommodate demand for services in the future, is essential for delivering cost effective and appropriate dementia care in Victoria.

Access Economics has been commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia Vic to provide up‐to‐date estimates and projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria. Using updated age and gender specific prevalence rates derived from a recent study for Alzheimer’s Australia (Access Economics 2009), and population projections using our in‐house demographic model (AE‐DEM), dementia prevalence and incidence has been estimated for 2010 and projected to 2050 for each State Electoral Division (SED).

Summary of results

It is estimated that there are almost 66,000 people with dementia in Victoria in 2010 which is projected to increase to 246,000 people by 2050. This represents a 275% growth in prevalence between 2010 and 2050. Similarly, it is estimated that there are approximately 20,000 new cases of dementia in Victoria in 2010. Incidence is projected to increase by 400%, reaching 94,000 new cases by 2050. Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria are shown in Chart i

Chart i: Dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria

: Incidence Prevalence 100 90 300 80 250 70 (000s) 60 (000s)

200 50

People 40

People 150 30 100 20 10 50 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Source: Access Economics calculations.

For each decade between 2010 and 2050, the prevalence of dementia prevalence is expected to increase at a faster rate than those aged 70 years and older in Victoria. The most rapid growth in dementia prevalence is expected in the next decade from 2010 to 2020 with around

i State Electoral Districts

50% growth projected. Table i shows the projected growth in dementia prevalence and the 70 years and older Victorian population.

Table i: Percentage change in dementia prevalence and 70+ population per decade in Vic

2010‐20 2020‐30 2030‐2040 2040‐2050 age 70+ in Victoria 40% 35% 24% 15% dementia prevalence 50% 44% 38% 26% Source: Access Economics calculations.

Dementia prevalence throughout State Electoral Districts (SEDs) is highly variable. In 2010, the SED with the highest estimated number of dementia cases is Nepean (Eastern Victoria) with over 1,250 cases. The SED with the lowest estimated number of dementia cases is Yuroke (Western Metropolitan), with around 400 cases. Our projections show that in 2050 the highest number of dementia cases is expected to be in Bass (Eastern Victoria), with over 5,000 cases, while Brunswick (Northern Metropolitan) is expected to have the least number of cases with fewer than 1,600 cases. The growth of dementia prevalence between 2010 and 2050 is expected to range between 97% (Pascoe Vale – Western Metropolitan) and 734% (Melton – Western Victoria). The average prevalence growth across all SEDs is estimated at 290%. The SEDs with the highest estimated dementia prevalence in 2010 and 2050 are shown in Chart ii.

Chart ii: Dementia prevalence, by top 10 SEDs

2010 2050 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 (00s) (00s)

20 20 10 10 People 0 People 0 Hill

East East East Vale Bass

West

Lowan Box Melton Barwon Barwon Preston Nepean Nepean

Brighton Bellarine Bellarine Narracan Pascoe Mornington Mornington Bendigo Ballarat South South Gippsland Gippsland

Source: Access Economics calculations. Overall, the top ten SEDs, ranked by dementia prevalence, are concentrated in the Eastern and the Western Victoria regions. In 2010, both regions each contributed three of the top 10 SEDs, while in 2050, Eastern Victorian regions contributed five of the top 10 SEDs, with the Western Victorian region contributing four of the remaining top five SEDs.

It should be noted that the overall prevalence estimates in this report differ from those in Access Economics (2009) due to subsequent changes to population estimates. These changes arise from mortality and annual migration updates, which alter the age distribution and total numbers in the population projections, both in the near and distant future. All the age‐gender prevalence rates in this report are the same as in Access Economics (2009).

ii State Electoral Districts

1 Background

Access Economics has completed a number of projects detailing the impact of dementia in Australia. More recently, Access Economics (2009) provided dementia prevalence and incidence estimates and projections for 2009 to 2050 to Alzheimer’s Australia, based on updated population and prevalence rates, and expected trends in physical activity. The report found that dementia prevalence will be greater than first thought, with projections for the year 2050 increasing to 1.13 million (from 731,000 previously estimated in 2005).

The year 2010 is significant in Victoria’s demographic ageing. It represents the first year that the baby boomers start turning 65 years of age. The baby boomer bulge is on the cusp of working its way through those age brackets that are at greater risk of dementia. This is the main driving factor in the expected increase in dementia prevalence and incidence.

However, there will be an uneven ageing distribution across regions within Victoria, with younger people generally located in Melbourne and other metropolitan regions and older people located outside these areas. Older adults also represent a growing proportion of the population outside the Melbourne metro region.

Dementia remains a growing concern for health and aged care service provision. Combined with Australia’s and Victoria’s ageing population, modifiable dementia risk factors continue to increase in Australia. For example, diabetes mellitus is known to increase the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia. Obesity is a risk factor for vascular dementia through its effect on coronary heart disease and stroke, while physical inactivity has also been linked to an increase in dementia through its impact on cardiovascular disease, stroke, and Type 2 diabetes (DoHA 2006; DCRC 2007). The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has noted significant increases in these risk factors over the past decade that is likely to continue into the near future (AIHW, 2008).

This report identifies the key areas in Victoria that are expected to experience the greatest increase in dementia cases. This research can then be used to assist government agencies in planning the provision of future dementia services, with the aim of improving the quality of life for all people in Victoria living with dementia, including their families and carers.

1 State Electoral Districts

2 Modelling methodology The methodology used to estimate and project dementia prevalence and incidence in Victoria was based on population growth, demographic ageing and projected changes in physical inactivity, a known modifiable risk factor for dementia.

Age and gender specific prevalence rates were derived from a recent study for Alzheimer’s Australia (Access Economics 2009). In the study dementia prevalence rates were estimated by age and gender using a combination of published international epidemiological studies and meta‐analyses. The studies used for each age bracket are outlined below. ■ Age brackets 0 to 59 years: a weighted average for the entire population was calculated using five year age bracket prevalence rates derived from Harvey et al (2003). ■ Age brackets between 60 and 79 years: previous prevalence rates used in Access Economics (2005, 2006) were used. ■ Age brackets between 80 and 89 years: a weighted average of prevalence rates found in Access Economics (2005, 2006) and Lucca et al (2009) were used, with the former receiving three times as much weight as the latter. ■ Age brackets 90 years and above: a weighted average of prevalence rates was calculated using rates found in Access Economics (2005, 2006), Lucca et al (2009), and Corrada et al (2008). An average prevalence rate was calculated using the latter two studies and this average was given an equal weighting with the prevalence rates from Access Economics (2005, 2006).

The estimated prevalence rates for dementia are shown in Chart 2.1. The prevalence rates are relatively low below the age of 60 years. Once a person ages beyond 60 years, the risk of developing dementia increases exponentially. For example, between the ages of 60 and 64 years, around 1.2% of males and 0.6% of females will have dementia. Between the age of 70 and 74 years, prevalence rates increase to 3.5% and 3.3% respectively. By the age of 80 to 84 years, prevalence rates are around 12.1% for males and 12.9% for females, while for those 95 years and older, 37.2% of males and 47.3% of females are expected to have dementia.

2 State Electoral Districts

Chart 2.1: Estimated dementia prevalence rates in Victoria

Source: Access Economics calculations.

To estimate total dementia prevalence in Victoria, age and gender prevalence rates were applied to population estimates and projections. In addition, adjustments to dementia prevalence were made for expected changes to physical inactivity using an attributable fraction outlined in Jekel et al (2001) and physical activity trends derived from the ABS (2006). To estimate dementia prevalence in each division, the prevalence for Victoria was split using the population concordances.

The number of incident cases in Victoria was calculated in previous Access Economics reports by using a simple disease model, similar to that used by the World Health Organization (Figure 2.1).

Figure 2.1: Simple disease model used to estimate dementia incidence

m Deaths from Susceptibles general mortality

m i r

f Cause-specific Cases deaths

3 State Electoral Districts

where: i ‐ incidence rate (new cases of dementia); r ‐ remission rate (which equals zero is this case); m ‐ natural mortality rate in the population; f ‐ case fatality rate, or mortality as a direct result of dementia; cases ‐ existing people with dementia; and susceptible ‐ people in the population that do not have dementia. Source: Barendregt (2004)

Natural mortality rates used in the model were taken from the Access Economics Demographic Model (AE‐Dem). The number of people susceptible to dementia was calculated as the current population, less prevalence cases (by age group and gender), while case fatality rates were calculated from the relative risk of mortality for people with dementia (Table 2.2).

Table 2.2: Relative risk of mortality associated with dementia

Males Females 0‐59 158.9 309.2 60‐64 9.8 25.5 65‐69 3.6 12.0 70‐74 6.2 10.7 75‐79 5.8 8.9 80‐84 3.8 5.3 85‐89 2.6 2.9 90‐94 2.2 2.2 95+ 2.0 1.7 Source: Access Economics (from modelling for the evaluation of the National Dementia Priority Initiative and DISMOD II)

The incidence rate of dementia from 2010 to 2050 was estimated using DISMOD, based on prevalence of risk factors such as physical inactivity, as well as minor compositional effects from demographic change by cohort over time.

The population estimates and projections were undertaken at SED level using the AE‐DEM model, an in‐house demographic model based on the 2006 national census undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The population has been estimated for 2010 and projected to 2050 by age and gender, building up from the demographic ‘first principles’ of births, deaths, migration and household formation.

The latest concordance from the ABS was used to split prevalence and incidence by SEDs.

4 State Electoral Districts

3 Dementia projections by State Electoral Districts

Our prevalence estimate shows that there are around 66,000 people with dementia in Victoria in 2010. When this estimate is projected to 2050, the prevalence of dementia will exceed 246,000 people. This represents an increase of around 280%. Chart 3.1 shows prevalence projections over each decade from 2010 to 2050.

Chart 3.1: Dementia prevalence in Victoria

Prevalence 300

250 (000s) 200

People 150

100

50

0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Persons

Source: Access Economics calculations.

Dementia prevalence and incidence is expected to grow variably across SEDs. In 2010, Nepean (Eastern Victoria) is estimated to have the highest estimated number of dementia cases, with over 1,250 cases. The SED with the lowest estimated number of dementia cases is Yuroke (Western Metropolitan), with around 400 cases. In the next 40 years, it is projected that Bass will experience the greatest increase in absolute numbers of dementia cases, and in 2050 become the SED with the highest number of dementia cases with over 5,000, while Brunswick (Northern Metropolitan) is expected to have the least number of cases, with fewer than 1,600. State Electoral Districts that are expected to have the most rapid growth in dementia prevalence, between 2010 and 2050, are Melton (734%), Tarneit (581%), and Yuroke (571%), while the average prevalence growth across all SEDs is estimated at 290%. Note that growth rates must be interpreted cautiously, as if the number of people with dementia for a particular SED are small, this can lead to apparently large fluctuations in growth rates. Chart 3.2 shows dementia prevalence by the top 10 SEDs, while Chart 3.3 shows the estimated dementia prevalence by each SED.

5 State Electoral Districts

Chart 3.2: Dementia prevalence in 2010 and 2050, by top 10 SEDs

2010 60 50 40 30 (00s) 20 10

People 0 Hill

East Vale

Lowan Box Barwon Preston Nepean

Brighton Bellarine Pascoe Mornington South Gippsland

2050 60 50 40 30 (00s) 20 10

People 0 East East Bass

West

Melton Barwon Nepean

Bellarine Narracan Mornington Bendigo Ballarat South Gippsland

Source: Access Economics calculations.

6 State Electoral Districts

Chart 3.3: Dementia prevalence by SEDs, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050

Prevalence

6

5

4

3

2 People (000s)

1

0 East East Bass

Park

West West

Altona Benalla Bellarine Benambra Bayswater Albert Ballarat Bendigo Ballarat Bendigo

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Prevalence

6

5

4

3

2 People (000s)

1

0 Hill

Box Carrum Bulleen Clayton Brighton Caulfield Burwood Bentleigh Bundoora Brunswick Broadmeadows

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

7 State Electoral Districts

Prevalence 6

5

4

3

2 People (000s)

1

0 Hill

Gully

Evelyn Eltham Derrimut Essendon Footscray Frankston Forest Doncaster Dandenong Cranbourne Ferntree

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Prevalence 6

5

4

3

2 People (000s)

1

0 East Kew

South Keilor

Kilsyth Ivanhoe Kororoit Geelong Hastings Hawthorn Gembrook Gippsland Gippsland

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Prevalence 6

5

4

3

2 People (000s)

1

0 Lara Park

Lowan Melton Mildura Malvern Mill Mitcham Monbulk Macedon Lyndhurst Melbourne

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

8 State Electoral Districts

Prevalence 6

5

4

3

2 People (000s)

1

0 South North Valley

Niddrie Nepean Morwell Narracan Mulgrave Waverley

Mordialloc Mornington Murray Warren Warren

Mount Narre 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Narre

Prevalence 6

5

4

3

2 People (000s)

1

0 Vale

Ripon Rodney Preston Prahran Oakleigh Polwarth Scoresby Richmond Northcote Pascoe Sandringham

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Prevalence 6

5

4

3

2 People (000s)

1

0 Hill

Yean Coast

Yuroke Tarneit Barwon

Seymour Yan Swan West Shepparton ‐ Warrandyte Thomastown Williamstown South South 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: Access Economics calculations.

9 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.1: Prevalence projections, by SED

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Albert Park (Southern Males 283 301 316 331 346 364 382 401 421 442 465 773 1,108 1,443 410 Metropolitan) Females 396 410 424 440 458 480 497 518 538 565 593 974 1,466 1,895 378 Persons 680 710 740 772 803 843 879 919 960 1,007 1,058 1,747 2,574 3,338 391 Altona (Western Males 280 301 321 342 365 386 409 434 459 485 509 793 1,122 1,430 410 Metropolitan) Females 402 429 457 485 513 541 570 602 632 663 691 1,041 1,463 1,850 360 Persons 683 730 778 827 878 928 979 1,036 1,091 1,147 1,200 1,833 2,585 3,280 380 Ballarat East Males 311 328 347 364 381 397 415 435 455 475 492 734 1,014 1,277 311 (Western Victoria) Females 493 510 533 552 575 598 619 642 662 683 705 1,009 1,405 1,785 262 Persons 803 839 881 916 956 995 1,034 1,077 1,117 1,158 1,197 1,744 2,419 3,062 281 Ballarat West Males 312 332 350 370 390 411 432 456 478 501 525 817 1,171 1,554 398 (Western Victoria) Females 545 570 594 617 643 667 690 716 738 764 789 1,131 1,573 2,004 267 Persons 857 902 945 988 1,033 1,078 1,123 1,172 1,217 1,265 1,315 1,948 2,744 3,558 315 Bass (Eastern Males 376 400 426 453 479 507 535 569 600 632 663 1,094 1,623 2,138 469 Victoria) Females 535 569 602 635 674 713 749 791 829 869 913 1,485 2,197 2,886 440 Persons 911 968 1,028 1,088 1,153 1,220 1,284 1,360 1,430 1,500 1,576 2,579 3,820 5,023 452 Bayswater (Eastern Males 253 268 284 299 314 330 345 363 379 395 411 600 810 994 293 Metropolitan) Females 434 456 477 498 517 537 558 578 599 619 638 884 1,231 1,514 249 Persons 687 724 761 797 830 867 903 940 978 1,015 1,050 1,484 2,041 2,509 265 Bellarine (Western Males 416 439 462 484 506 527 551 576 598 620 642 928 1,282 1,605 285 Victoria) Females 624 656 690 723 756 787 821 854 887 918 948 1,370 1,966 2,553 309 Persons 1,040 1,095 1,152 1,208 1,261 1,314 1,373 1,430 1,485 1,537 1,590 2,298 3,249 4,157 300 Benalla (Northern Males 350 368 386 403 422 440 458 475 491 510 527 729 974 1,188 239 Victoria) Females 506 528 549 570 592 610 628 652 671 688 710 973 1,326 1,623 221 Persons 856 895 935 973 1,015 1,050 1,086 1,127 1,162 1,198 1,237 1,702 2,300 2,811 228 Benambra (Northern Males 229 240 252 266 277 289 303 314 327 339 354 514 656 779 240 Victoria) Females 331 343 355 366 380 393 407 421 435 452 466 678 914 1,097 232 Persons 560 583 607 631 657 683 710 735 762 791 820 1,192 1,571 1,876 235 Bendigo East Males 325 342 365 385 408 431 452 480 504 530 562 896 1,307 1,807 456 (Northern Victoria) Females 512 540 566 594 623 650 677 703 736 764 795 1,155 1,616 2,084 307 Persons 837 882 931 979 1,031 1,081 1,130 1,183 1,240 1,294 1,357 2,051 2,923 3,892 365

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

10 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.2: Prevalence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Bendigo West Males 329 343 359 374 388 407 424 441 461 478 499 731 1,001 1,254 281 (Northern Victoria) Females 521 539 560 576 591 606 626 643 667 684 705 1,000 1,399 1,770 240 Persons 850 882 918 950 979 1,012 1,049 1,085 1,128 1,163 1,204 1,731 2,400 3,024 256 Bentleigh (Southern Males 350 366 381 396 407 417 430 443 452 462 473 647 866 1,043 198 Metropolitan) Females 603 625 643 659 674 687 704 720 732 742 754 919 1,166 1,333 121 Persons 953 990 1,024 1,054 1,081 1,104 1,134 1,163 1,185 1,203 1,227 1,566 2,032 2,375 149 Box Hill (Eastern Males 337 349 359 370 381 393 404 416 428 439 453 619 817 1,000 197 Metropolitan) Females 628 641 650 657 665 672 679 686 693 700 706 888 1,174 1,374 119 Persons 965 990 1,009 1,027 1,046 1,064 1,083 1,102 1,121 1,139 1,159 1,507 1,991 2,374 146 Brighton (Southern Males 358 370 381 396 412 424 441 457 475 493 511 741 1,015 1,301 263 Metropolitan) Females 650 666 681 693 705 719 733 747 760 772 788 1,031 1,387 1,716 164 Persons 1,009 1,037 1,062 1,089 1,117 1,143 1,174 1,204 1,236 1,265 1,299 1,772 2,402 3,018 199 Broadmeadows Males 272 289 306 322 338 354 373 389 405 421 436 590 775 940 246 (Northern Females 377 400 423 445 466 488 509 533 553 572 593 788 1,023 1,205 220 Metropolitan) Persons 649 689 729 766 804 842 882 923 958 994 1,029 1,379 1,798 2,146 231 Brunswick (Northern Males 283 295 305 313 322 331 340 347 356 364 372 461 576 667 136 Metropolitan) Females 412 424 435 447 461 470 478 487 495 506 516 631 795 902 119 Persons 695 719 739 761 783 801 818 834 851 870 888 1,092 1,371 1,569 126 Bulleen (Eastern Males 311 335 356 376 396 416 438 459 477 497 516 693 926 1,108 256 Metropolitan) Females 455 480 506 533 561 589 617 643 671 700 727 1,005 1,413 1,771 290 Persons 766 814 862 909 958 1,004 1,054 1,102 1,149 1,197 1,243 1,698 2,339 2,879 276 Bundoora (Northern Males 279 294 309 325 342 357 373 391 407 424 442 627 847 1,070 284 Metropolitan) Females 434 455 475 493 513 534 555 574 593 610 632 864 1,186 1,501 246 Persons 713 749 785 818 854 891 928 965 1,000 1,034 1,073 1,491 2,033 2,570 261 Burwood (Southern Males 335 350 364 378 394 408 421 435 449 463 477 647 867 1,059 216 Metropolitan) Females 593 612 627 636 650 663 677 688 698 711 722 925 1,244 1,484 150 Persons 928 961 990 1,015 1,044 1,071 1,098 1,123 1,147 1,174 1,200 1,572 2,111 2,543 174 Carrum (South Males 315 329 345 360 376 392 408 425 442 460 479 683 904 1,128 258 Eastern Females 516 534 554 570 590 607 624 639 652 669 685 939 1,280 1,542 199 Metropolitan) Persons 830 864 899 930 966 1,000 1,032 1,064 1,093 1,129 1,164 1,622 2,185 2,670 222

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

11 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.3: Prevalence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Caulfield (Southern Males 313 319 327 332 341 350 358 365 373 382 392 535 709 863 176 Metropolitan) Females 542 549 556 560 562 568 572 577 580 584 589 726 934 1,082 100 Persons 855 868 883 892 903 918 930 942 953 966 981 1,261 1,643 1,946 128 Clayton (South Males 331 346 361 374 390 404 419 433 446 461 476 648 879 1,086 228 Eastern Females 462 476 489 499 513 528 544 558 570 585 598 793 1,051 1,253 171 Metropolitan) Persons 793 822 850 874 903 932 963 991 1,017 1,047 1,075 1,442 1,930 2,339 195 Cranbourne (South Males 252 272 293 314 334 356 379 403 427 453 480 800 1,149 1,474 486 Eastern Females 356 382 407 430 456 484 513 542 570 601 631 1,013 1,498 1,939 444 Metropolitan) Persons 608 653 700 744 791 840 892 945 997 1,054 1,111 1,813 2,646 3,413 462 Dandenong (South Males 275 292 309 326 341 358 376 395 412 429 451 683 941 1,236 349 Eastern Females 423 446 469 489 509 534 554 577 598 618 640 897 1,236 1,566 271 Metropolitan) Persons 698 738 778 815 849 892 931 972 1,010 1,047 1,091 1,579 2,178 2,802 302 Derrimut (Western Males 270 286 298 312 328 345 367 383 401 420 441 683 948 1,246 362 Metropolitan) Females 362 381 400 416 430 450 470 488 506 525 547 792 1,095 1,397 286 Persons 632 667 698 728 759 795 836 871 906 945 988 1,475 2,043 2,643 318 Doncaster (Eastern Males 327 352 375 396 417 437 460 483 502 523 543 729 973 1,165 256 Metropolitan) Females 478 505 532 560 590 619 649 676 706 736 764 1,057 1,486 1,863 290 Persons 806 856 907 956 1,007 1,056 1,109 1,159 1,208 1,259 1,307 1,786 2,460 3,028 276 Eltham (Eastern Males 221 235 249 265 282 297 314 330 348 365 383 593 838 1,081 388 Metropolitan) Females 325 342 359 374 391 409 426 445 462 480 499 751 1,090 1,419 337 Persons 546 577 609 639 673 706 740 776 810 845 882 1,344 1,928 2,499 358 Essendon (Western Males 263 273 283 294 304 314 323 332 343 352 363 502 669 806 206 Metropolitan) Females 457 469 477 486 495 505 512 520 529 540 548 703 931 1,107 142 Persons 721 742 761 780 799 818 836 852 872 892 911 1,205 1,600 1,913 165 Evelyn (Eastern Males 240 257 272 290 306 325 345 363 383 401 422 655 908 1,182 392 Victoria) Females 327 349 365 381 396 416 435 454 471 490 510 757 1,059 1,319 303 Persons 568 606 637 671 702 741 781 817 854 890 933 1,412 1,968 2,500 340 Ferntree Gully Males 203 217 230 244 256 271 287 303 318 334 350 557 762 937 361 (Eastern Females 316 333 350 366 384 401 419 440 460 481 501 779 1,111 1,392 341 Metropolitan) Persons 519 550 581 610 640 672 707 743 778 815 851 1,336 1,873 2,329 349

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

12 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.4: Prevalence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Footscray (Western Males 271 280 288 295 304 312 322 331 340 350 362 520 703 871 222 Metropolitan) Females 453 466 474 485 493 505 517 529 536 545 557 724 959 1,187 162 Persons 724 746 762 780 797 817 839 859 876 895 919 1,243 1,662 2,058 184 Forest Hill (Eastern Males 295 307 319 330 342 354 367 379 389 401 413 546 710 862 193 Metropolitan) Females 441 453 463 474 485 497 508 521 533 546 557 727 957 1,140 159 Persons 735 760 782 804 827 851 875 900 922 946 969 1,274 1,666 2,002 172 Frankston (South Males 314 328 342 358 373 390 407 425 444 462 482 704 948 1,221 288 Eastern Females 515 531 546 563 580 599 619 637 655 674 693 942 1,263 1,578 206 Metropolitan) Persons 830 859 888 921 953 990 1,026 1,062 1,099 1,136 1,175 1,646 2,211 2,799 237 Geelong (Western Males 312 323 337 350 364 374 388 403 420 434 446 648 881 1,129 261 Victoria) Females 529 544 556 571 583 599 614 627 638 653 669 880 1,178 1,449 174 Persons 842 868 893 921 947 973 1,002 1,030 1,058 1,087 1,116 1,527 2,059 2,578 206 Gembrook (Eastern Males 230 247 265 283 301 320 340 362 384 407 430 727 1,075 1,401 508 Victoria) Females 319 338 359 379 402 426 450 475 500 529 558 936 1,415 1,876 488 Persons 549 586 624 662 703 745 789 837 884 936 987 1,663 2,490 3,277 496 Gippsland East Males 414 441 468 489 510 533 564 591 617 650 679 1,023 1,448 1,880 354 (Eastern Victoria) Females 567 597 627 654 684 717 747 779 811 847 883 1,326 1,868 2,405 324 Persons 981 1,038 1,095 1,143 1,195 1,250 1,311 1,370 1,428 1,497 1,561 2,349 3,316 4,284 337 Gippsland South Males 340 359 377 393 413 433 449 467 484 502 522 745 1,016 1,256 269 (Eastern Victoria) Females 458 481 502 520 541 562 580 601 621 640 661 929 1,283 1,568 242 Persons 798 840 879 913 953 996 1,030 1,067 1,105 1,142 1,183 1,674 2,299 2,824 254 Hastings (Eastern Males 248 264 280 298 318 338 359 381 403 427 451 745 1,050 1,323 434 Victoria) Females 306 323 344 364 385 408 429 452 477 502 528 890 1,312 1,665 444 Persons 554 587 624 662 704 746 788 833 880 929 979 1,636 2,362 2,989 440 Hawthorn (Southern Males 256 270 284 297 311 324 338 353 367 381 396 580 813 1,053 311 Metropolitan) Females 522 536 545 551 562 574 586 595 602 613 622 801 1,069 1,277 144 Persons 779 806 828 848 873 898 924 948 969 994 1,018 1,381 1,882 2,330 199 Ivanhoe (Northern Males 349 365 382 396 410 423 439 458 473 490 506 692 948 1,187 240 Metropolitan) Females 583 603 619 633 650 671 688 702 716 730 746 939 1,249 1,491 156 Persons 932 968 1,001 1,029 1,060 1,094 1,127 1,160 1,189 1,220 1,252 1,631 2,197 2,677 187

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

13 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.5: Prevalence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Keilor (Western Males 220 237 255 272 292 312 333 355 377 400 423 683 972 1,246 467 Metropolitan) Females 311 332 355 378 400 425 450 473 497 524 553 880 1,291 1,687 442 Persons 531 569 610 650 691 738 783 828 875 924 976 1,563 2,264 2,933 452 Kew (Southern Males 305 315 325 333 344 354 364 376 389 400 410 561 741 910 198 Metropolitan) Females 562 572 575 585 596 604 615 621 632 641 651 814 1,043 1,231 119 Persons 867 886 900 918 939 957 979 997 1,021 1,041 1,061 1,376 1,785 2,141 147 Kilsyth (Eastern Males 238 253 267 282 297 312 328 345 362 378 395 598 802 993 317 Metropolitan) Females 329 348 365 381 397 414 431 450 467 485 504 731 1,010 1,234 275 Persons 567 601 632 663 694 725 759 795 828 862 898 1,329 1,812 2,227 293 Kororoit (Western Males 206 221 235 249 266 282 301 319 337 356 375 603 854 1,107 437 Metropolitan) Females 285 304 323 341 358 379 400 419 439 461 484 752 1,090 1,415 396 Persons 492 525 558 590 624 662 701 738 776 816 860 1,355 1,943 2,522 413 Lara (Western Males 287 303 320 340 356 372 392 413 435 457 476 751 1,041 1,350 371 Victoria) Females 407 430 450 471 495 518 541 562 586 612 637 950 1,316 1,632 301 Persons 693 732 770 811 851 890 933 975 1,021 1,069 1,112 1,701 2,357 2,983 330 Lowan (Western Males 381 399 418 438 458 476 497 516 534 553 572 778 1,027 1,267 233 Victoria) Females 609 633 654 676 700 724 747 766 784 806 822 1,063 1,406 1,694 178 Persons 990 1,032 1,072 1,114 1,158 1,200 1,244 1,282 1,318 1,360 1,395 1,842 2,433 2,961 199 Lyndhurst (South Males 284 302 320 337 358 377 399 420 441 463 485 745 1,051 1,339 372 Eastern Females 406 431 455 477 499 524 549 574 599 622 646 950 1,352 1,703 319 Metropolitan) Persons 690 733 775 814 856 902 948 994 1,040 1,086 1,131 1,694 2,403 3,042 341 Macedon (Northern Males 245 264 285 304 324 343 364 389 412 436 458 737 1,051 1,346 449 Victoria) Females 338 360 382 401 421 446 470 496 520 545 575 931 1,376 1,819 438 Persons 583 624 667 705 745 789 834 885 932 982 1,033 1,667 2,427 3,165 443 Malvern (Southern Males 301 319 336 350 365 383 402 420 437 455 471 679 940 1,185 293 Metropolitan) Females 530 550 567 585 602 622 641 660 680 698 719 977 1,344 1,715 223 Persons 832 869 903 935 968 1,005 1,044 1,080 1,117 1,153 1,190 1,656 2,284 2,900 249 Melbourne (Northern Males 267 282 298 313 329 348 367 387 409 430 452 764 1,138 1,493 460 Metropolitan) Females 406 422 440 459 478 502 525 550 577 605 632 1,029 1,573 2,055 406 Persons 673 704 738 772 808 849 892 937 986 1,035 1,084 1,793 2,710 3,548 428

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

14 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.6: Prevalence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Melton (Western Males 223 248 273 299 326 352 380 411 441 475 507 944 1,394 1,865 736 Victoria) Females 325 359 396 433 467 503 540 583 624 664 709 1,310 2,035 2,705 732 Persons 548 607 668 732 793 855 921 994 1,065 1,139 1,217 2,254 3,429 4,570 734 Mildura (Northern Males 311 332 352 369 387 404 424 446 464 482 497 710 981 1,235 297 Victoria) Females 485 509 532 559 579 599 625 645 672 696 719 1,002 1,416 1,820 275 Persons 796 841 884 928 966 1,003 1,048 1,091 1,136 1,178 1,216 1,712 2,397 3,055 284 Mill Park (Northern Males 194 209 225 242 260 279 298 319 339 361 385 601 819 1,013 422 Metropolitan) Females 253 272 293 314 334 358 381 406 429 454 479 771 1,113 1,435 467 Persons 447 482 518 556 595 636 679 725 767 815 864 1,372 1,931 2,448 448 Mitcham (Eastern Males 293 305 316 326 336 348 360 371 380 390 400 525 676 813 177 Metropolitan) Females 439 450 459 470 479 489 499 511 522 533 543 697 903 1,065 143 Persons 732 755 775 795 815 837 859 882 902 923 943 1,222 1,579 1,878 156 Monbulk (Eastern Males 196 207 221 233 244 256 269 281 292 304 318 492 674 845 332 Victoria) Females 274 288 300 312 323 338 352 364 378 390 404 596 836 1,028 276 Persons 469 495 520 546 567 594 621 646 671 695 723 1,089 1,510 1,873 299 Mordialloc (South Males 327 341 354 366 378 390 403 416 428 443 456 629 841 1,016 211 Eastern Females 410 415 420 425 430 436 443 451 459 467 476 648 819 939 129 Metropolitan) Persons 737 756 775 791 809 826 847 867 887 910 932 1,277 1,660 1,956 165 Mornington (Eastern Males 392 414 435 456 478 504 530 555 574 599 627 915 1,270 1,605 310 Victoria) Females 583 615 642 668 690 715 745 774 801 829 859 1,236 1,715 2,200 277 Persons 975 1,029 1,077 1,124 1,168 1,218 1,275 1,329 1,375 1,428 1,486 2,151 2,985 3,805 290 Morwell (Eastern Males 249 262 278 295 307 323 338 353 367 383 400 606 827 1,046 320 Victoria) Females 374 392 408 427 444 461 477 497 513 533 552 811 1,138 1,415 279 Persons 623 654 686 721 751 783 815 850 880 916 952 1,417 1,965 2,462 295 Mount Waverley Males 355 373 390 408 427 445 463 480 496 513 528 675 879 1,064 200 (South Eastern Females 497 519 542 559 580 602 625 646 666 685 704 912 1,250 1,536 209 Metropolitan) Persons 851 892 933 967 1,007 1,048 1,088 1,125 1,161 1,198 1,232 1,587 2,129 2,599 205 Mulgrave (South Males 282 300 317 335 353 372 392 412 430 451 471 687 955 1,229 336 Eastern Females 428 451 471 490 511 534 557 579 601 623 645 913 1,292 1,634 282 Metropolitan) Persons 710 750 788 825 864 906 949 991 1,031 1,074 1,116 1,599 2,247 2,863 303

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

15 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.7: Prevalence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Murray Valley Males 353 371 387 404 420 438 457 475 494 513 533 761 1,019 1,256 256 (Northern Victoria) Females 525 548 566 587 610 631 656 677 703 727 748 1,034 1,397 1,718 227 Persons 879 919 953 992 1,030 1,069 1,113 1,152 1,197 1,240 1,281 1,795 2,417 2,974 238 Narracan (Eastern Males 348 369 390 410 434 456 477 500 522 549 577 852 1,176 1,508 334 Victoria) Females 520 551 582 611 636 665 696 722 752 780 812 1,166 1,658 2,154 314 Persons 868 920 971 1,021 1,070 1,121 1,172 1,222 1,274 1,329 1,388 2,019 2,833 3,662 322 Narre Warren North Males 193 207 220 233 245 260 275 291 306 321 339 524 738 936 385 (South Eastern Females 262 277 292 307 320 337 354 373 389 406 424 642 922 1,170 346 Metropolitan) Persons 455 484 512 540 565 597 629 664 695 728 763 1,167 1,659 2,105 363 Narre Warren South Males 252 272 292 312 333 355 377 402 425 451 477 795 1,137 1,439 471 (South Eastern Females 367 391 417 443 469 497 527 557 588 622 653 1,061 1,583 2,050 459 Metropolitan) Persons 619 663 709 755 802 852 905 959 1,014 1,073 1,131 1,856 2,720 3,488 464 Nepean (Eastern Males 514 540 565 591 617 638 663 685 710 736 757 1,078 1,470 1,798 250 Victoria) Females 743 776 812 844 878 908 942 977 1,009 1,043 1,075 1,536 2,195 2,775 274 Persons 1,257 1,316 1,377 1,434 1,494 1,547 1,605 1,662 1,718 1,778 1,832 2,614 3,665 4,573 264 Niddrie (Western Males 306 328 349 369 386 405 427 446 465 480 496 674 901 1,087 256 Metropolitan) Females 426 454 484 508 535 561 589 620 647 675 697 963 1,365 1,729 306 Persons 731 783 832 877 921 966 1,016 1,066 1,112 1,155 1,193 1,637 2,266 2,816 285 Northcote (Northern Males 297 310 324 338 348 364 380 393 408 420 438 599 806 1,047 253 Metropolitan) Females 450 464 479 492 507 523 538 555 566 584 601 761 1,000 1,230 174 Persons 746 774 803 830 856 888 917 947 974 1,004 1,039 1,360 1,806 2,278 205 Oakleigh (Southern Males 323 333 344 353 366 377 387 397 407 418 430 574 768 945 193 Metropolitan) Females 535 547 559 567 577 589 602 612 619 629 638 796 1,045 1,233 130 Persons 858 880 904 921 942 966 989 1,009 1,026 1,047 1,068 1,370 1,813 2,178 154 Pascoe Vale (Western Males 372 386 398 410 420 430 441 448 459 468 474 570 712 826 122 Metropolitan) Females 594 615 634 650 666 683 699 709 717 729 740 829 984 1,077 81 Persons 966 1,002 1,032 1,060 1,087 1,113 1,139 1,157 1,176 1,197 1,215 1,399 1,697 1,903 97 Polwarth (Western Males 339 356 375 390 405 422 441 459 477 493 511 730 998 1,247 268 Victoria) Females 514 538 559 579 594 616 638 659 681 699 720 1,012 1,408 1,783 247 Persons 853 894 934 968 999 1,039 1,079 1,118 1,158 1,192 1,231 1,741 2,406 3,031 255

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

16 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.8: Prevalence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Prahran (Southern Males 280 294 305 315 326 338 354 370 381 395 409 605 844 1,069 281 Metropolitan) Females 442 457 469 481 491 504 519 533 544 558 576 809 1,127 1,432 224 Persons 723 750 774 796 817 842 872 902 925 953 985 1,414 1,971 2,501 246 Preston (Northern Males 378 395 411 427 447 465 481 498 515 531 550 714 909 1,122 197 Metropolitan) Females 590 615 641 665 688 709 729 748 769 786 805 976 1,230 1,456 147 Persons 968 1,010 1,052 1,092 1,135 1,174 1,209 1,245 1,284 1,317 1,354 1,690 2,139 2,578 166 Richmond (Northern Males 213 225 236 246 257 268 279 288 299 309 321 461 621 768 261 Metropolitan) Females 308 319 331 340 352 364 375 388 401 417 430 613 882 1,123 265 Persons 521 544 566 585 608 632 654 675 700 727 752 1,074 1,504 1,891 263 Ripon (Western Males 357 373 392 410 425 443 462 484 501 519 536 733 960 1,196 235 Victoria) Females 496 517 537 558 577 599 620 639 656 677 695 936 1,266 1,586 220 Persons 853 890 929 967 1,002 1,043 1,081 1,123 1,157 1,197 1,231 1,670 2,226 2,782 226 Rodney (Northern Males 348 368 389 405 424 444 463 485 506 529 550 802 1,104 1,413 306 Victoria) Females 481 500 520 538 559 582 603 628 650 673 696 991 1,395 1,792 273 Persons 829 867 910 943 983 1,026 1,066 1,112 1,155 1,202 1,246 1,793 2,499 3,205 286 Sandringham Males 310 319 326 335 343 349 356 364 374 382 391 534 697 829 167 (Southern Females 549 554 559 565 566 571 577 585 590 592 598 738 934 1,067 95 Metropolitan) Persons 859 873 885 901 909 920 933 950 963 974 989 1,272 1,631 1,896 121 Scoresby (Eastern Males 263 281 298 316 334 354 374 396 417 438 459 690 969 1,234 369 Metropolitan) Females 404 425 446 466 488 509 531 552 574 599 620 896 1,285 1,630 303 Persons 667 706 745 782 822 864 905 948 991 1,038 1,080 1,586 2,254 2,864 329 Seymour (Northern Males 267 285 302 321 338 359 379 400 421 442 465 750 1,063 1,347 405 Victoria) Females 350 371 395 415 437 460 482 510 532 555 581 929 1,367 1,749 399 Persons 617 656 697 736 775 820 862 909 953 997 1,046 1,679 2,430 3,095 401 Shepparton Males 298 316 335 350 370 387 408 430 450 472 494 715 970 1,215 308 (Northern Victoria) Females 455 482 510 530 555 574 601 624 647 670 693 968 1,344 1,721 278 Persons 753 798 845 880 924 961 1,009 1,054 1,097 1,141 1,187 1,683 2,314 2,936 290 South Barwon Males 393 419 445 471 498 526 558 589 622 651 679 1,055 1,496 1,965 400 (Western Victoria) Females 650 686 720 755 788 829 867 909 947 984 1,027 1,521 2,225 2,924 350 Persons 1,042 1,105 1,165 1,226 1,286 1,354 1,425 1,497 1,569 1,634 1,706 2,575 3,721 4,889 369

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

17 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.9: Prevalence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change South‐West Coast Males 291 304 317 331 342 357 373 388 404 419 437 639 820 978 236 (Western Victoria) Females 512 531 547 567 584 599 616 635 656 675 697 984 1,385 1,719 236 Persons 802 835 864 898 926 956 989 1,023 1,060 1,094 1,134 1,623 2,205 2,698 236 Swan Hill (Northern Males 347 362 373 386 395 409 422 437 452 463 476 626 798 975 181 Victoria) Females 478 497 512 525 540 552 565 577 589 601 615 814 1,103 1,392 191 Persons 825 858 885 911 935 961 988 1,014 1,040 1,064 1,091 1,440 1,901 2,367 187 Tarneit (Western Males 205 223 241 262 281 302 325 349 373 397 423 754 1,106 1,444 605 Metropolitan) Females 266 288 309 333 358 382 407 432 459 486 514 909 1,364 1,713 545 Persons 470 510 550 595 639 684 732 781 832 883 938 1,662 2,470 3,157 571 Thomastown Males 302 320 336 352 368 384 401 418 434 449 465 615 789 946 213 (Northern Females 422 445 468 489 511 534 554 575 594 615 635 818 1,071 1,274 202 Metropolitan) Persons 725 764 804 841 879 918 956 993 1,028 1,065 1,100 1,433 1,859 2,220 206 Warrandyte (Eastern Males 267 284 300 316 332 348 366 383 400 417 434 645 864 1,048 292 Metropolitan) Females 405 428 450 471 492 513 535 559 581 603 626 900 1,253 1,535 279 Persons 672 712 750 787 823 861 901 942 981 1,020 1,059 1,545 2,118 2,582 284 Williamstown Males 278 292 304 313 325 338 352 365 378 393 406 583 807 1,017 266 (Western Females 433 449 463 478 491 506 522 540 555 567 582 779 1,043 1,305 201 Metropolitan) Persons 712 741 767 792 816 843 874 906 933 960 988 1,363 1,851 2,322 226 Yan Yean (Northern Males 203 220 238 255 274 294 315 338 362 383 410 719 1,026 1,296 539 Metropolitan) Females 254 271 291 310 330 351 373 399 423 449 476 846 1,247 1,578 522 Persons 456 491 529 566 604 645 688 736 784 832 885 1,565 2,273 2,873 530 Yuroke (Western Males 175 192 209 226 244 263 286 309 330 353 376 645 932 1,212 592 Metropolitan) Females 221 241 261 280 301 323 347 373 399 425 451 777 1,142 1,482 572 Persons 396 433 470 506 545 587 632 682 729 777 828 1,421 2,074 2,694 581

Total (VIC) Males 26,057 27,497 28,931 30,336 31,769 33,246 34,819 36,417 37,970 39,576 41,219 60,757 83,462 105,169 304 Females 39,612 41,379 43,082 44,713 46,382 48,146 49,929 51,725 53,468 55,268 57,113 81,031 112,809 141,221 257 Persons 65,669 68,876 72,013 75,050 78,151 81,393 84,748 88,142 91,438 94,844 98,332 141,788 196,271 246,389 275

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

18 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.10: Incidence projections, by SED

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Albert Park (Southern Males 78 83 87 91 95 100 106 112 117 124 131 240 383 547 599 Metropolitan) Females 118 121 125 129 134 141 146 153 159 167 177 308 498 678 474 Persons 196 205 212 220 229 241 252 265 276 291 308 548 880 1225 524 Altona (Western Males 80 86 92 98 106 113 121 129 137 146 154 258 405 560 604 Metropolitan) Females 117 125 133 142 151 161 170 181 191 202 212 337 504 675 476 Persons 197 211 226 240 257 274 291 311 328 348 366 595 909 1235 527 Ballarat East Males 90 95 101 106 111 116 122 129 135 142 148 242 374 518 476 (Western Victoria) Females 150 155 161 166 174 183 190 197 204 212 219 333 498 676 351 Persons 240 250 262 272 285 299 312 326 338 353 367 575 873 1194 398 Ballarat West Males 93 100 106 112 118 126 134 142 149 158 167 285 462 687 638 (Western Victoria) Females 166 174 180 187 196 206 214 223 229 239 249 378 563 764 360 Persons 259 274 286 299 315 332 348 365 379 397 415 662 1024 1451 460 Bass (Eastern Males 109 116 124 132 140 149 159 170 180 190 201 358 601 874 703 Victoria) Females 159 169 179 188 201 215 227 241 253 266 282 486 773 1086 584 Persons 267 285 302 320 341 365 386 411 432 457 482 844 1375 1959 633 Bayswater (Eastern Males 72 77 81 85 90 95 100 106 111 116 122 195 290 386 437 Metropolitan) Females 130 137 142 148 154 160 167 174 181 188 195 287 426 547 321 Persons 202 213 223 233 243 255 267 279 291 304 316 482 717 933 362 Bellarine (Western Males 124 131 138 144 151 158 167 175 182 190 197 309 476 650 425 Victoria) Females 188 197 207 217 228 240 252 263 273 285 296 458 711 989 427 Persons 311 328 345 361 379 398 419 438 455 474 493 768 1187 1639 426 Benalla (Northern Males 100 105 111 116 121 126 132 138 142 149 154 234 347 460 360 Victoria) Females 150 156 162 168 175 181 187 195 201 207 215 313 454 583 289 Persons 250 261 273 284 296 307 319 333 343 356 369 547 801 1042 317 Benambra (Northern Males6063666973758083869094149201250317 Victoria) Females 91 94 97 99 103 107 112 116 120 125 129 201 278 342 277 Persons 151 157 162 169 176 183 191 199 206 215 223 350 479 592 293 Bendigo East Males 100 105 113 119 127 136 144 154 162 171 184 326 544 854 756 (Northern Victoria) Females 158 167 174 182 193 204 213 221 233 243 255 393 590 816 416 Persons 258 272 287 301 321 340 357 375 394 414 439 720 1134 1670 547

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

19 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.11: Incidence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Bendigo West Males 96 100 104 108 112 119 125 130 136 142 150 241 370 508 431 (Northern Victoria) Females 157 162 168 172 178 183 190 196 204 210 218 327 489 658 319 Persons 253 262 273 281 290 302 315 327 340 352 367 567 859 1166 361 Bentleigh (Southern Males 107 112 117 122 125 127 132 136 138 141 145 211 303 385 260 Metropolitan) Females 184 191 196 200 206 211 218 223 228 232 237 302 401 471 156 Persons 291 303 312 322 330 338 350 359 366 374 382 513 704 856 194 Box Hill (Eastern Males 103 107 110 113 116 121 125 129 133 137 142 204 294 388 276 Metropolitan) Females 189 194 195 196 198 200 202 205 207 210 213 281 387 463 145 Persons 292 301 304 309 315 321 327 334 340 347 355 485 681 851 191 Brighton (Southern Males 114 118 121 125 130 134 141 146 152 159 166 261 399 568 398 Metropolitan) Females 206 211 214 217 221 228 233 237 241 246 253 349 502 660 221 Persons 320 328 334 342 351 362 373 383 393 405 419 610 901 1228 284 Broadmeadows Males 76 81 87 91 97 103 110 116 121 128 133 194 283 374 395 (Northern Females 108 115 122 128 135 143 150 159 166 173 180 255 353 437 306 Metropolitan) Persons 183 196 208 220 232 245 260 276 287 301 314 449 636 812 343 Brunswick (Northern Males 84 89 92 94 97 100 103 106 109 112 115 149 200 244 189 Metropolitan) Females 120 124 126 130 135 137 140 143 146 150 154 199 260 301 152 Persons 204 212 218 225 232 237 244 249 255 262 269 348 460 545 167 Bulleen (Eastern Males 87 95 103 109 116 122 130 138 144 151 159 235 344 441 404 Metropolitan) Females 134 141 149 157 166 176 186 195 205 215 225 338 515 687 412 Persons 221 237 252 266 282 298 316 333 348 367 384 573 859 1127 409 Bundoora (Northern Males 83 88 93 98 104 110 116 122 128 134 141 219 334 468 462 Metropolitan) Females 131 137 143 148 155 163 171 177 184 190 199 291 432 587 349 Persons 214 226 236 246 259 273 287 300 311 325 340 510 766 1055 393 Burwood (Southern Males 102 108 112 116 121 126 131 135 140 145 150 216 316 414 304 Metropolitan) Females 179 185 188 191 195 199 204 208 211 216 220 298 422 519 190 Persons 282 292 300 307 316 325 335 343 351 361 371 514 738 933 231 Carrum (South Males 92 96 101 105 110 115 121 126 131 138 145 224 327 449 388 Eastern Females 150 156 161 165 171 176 181 186 190 195 201 296 423 526 250 Metropolitan) Persons 242 252 262 270 281 291 301 312 321 333 346 519 750 975 303

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

20 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.12: Incidence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Caulfield (Southern Males 99 101 103 104 106 109 112 114 116 119 123 178 260 344 247 Metropolitan) Females 169 171 172 173 173 176 178 179 180 182 184 236 320 384 126 Persons 269 272 275 276 280 286 290 293 296 301 307 414 580 728 171 Clayton (South Males 99 104 109 113 118 123 129 134 138 144 149 218 326 436 341 Eastern Females 132 135 139 142 146 152 158 163 167 172 177 249 346 429 226 Metropolitan) Persons 231 239 248 255 264 275 286 297 305 316 326 467 672 865 275 Cranbourne (South Males 71 77 83 89 95 102 110 118 124 133 142 256 405 562 692 Eastern Females 104 111 119 125 133 142 152 161 170 180 190 323 511 700 574 Metropolitan) Persons 175 188 202 214 228 244 262 279 294 313 332 579 917 1262 622 Dandenong (South Males 79 84 90 95 100 106 112 119 124 130 139 235 365 539 583 Eastern Females 126 133 140 146 153 162 170 177 184 192 200 298 443 599 376 Metropolitan) Persons 205 217 230 241 252 268 282 296 308 322 339 533 807 1138 456 Derrimut (Western Males 78 83 86 90 96 102 110 116 121 128 136 237 375 557 616 Metropolitan) Females 105 111 117 122 126 133 140 147 152 159 167 258 384 525 398 Persons 183 195 203 212 222 235 250 262 273 288 303 495 759 1082 490 Doncaster (Eastern Males 92 100 108 115 122 128 137 145 151 159 167 247 362 463 404 Metropolitan) Females 141 149 157 165 175 185 195 205 215 226 237 355 542 722 412 Persons 233 249 265 280 297 313 332 350 367 386 404 602 903 1186 409 Eltham (Eastern Males6367717681869398104110117203329475657 Metropolitan) Females 97 102 106 110 116 122 128 134 139 145 152 247 390 546 465 Persons 159 168 178 186 197 209 221 233 243 256 269 450 719 1021 541 Essendon (Western Males7981848790929698101104108158226286264 Metropolitan) Females 140 143 145 147 150 154 157 159 162 167 170 227 316 389 177 Persons 219 225 229 234 240 246 252 257 263 271 277 385 542 674 208 Evelyn (Eastern Males 69 74 79 84 89 97 104 110 117 123 132 227 357 524 662 Victoria) Females 96 102 107 111 116 122 128 134 139 146 152 241 362 475 394 Persons 165 176 185 195 205 219 232 245 256 269 284 468 719 998 506 Ferntree Gully Males5255596266697479838893163243316513 (Eastern Females 90 95 99 104 109 113 119 126 132 138 145 242 367 481 436 Metropolitan) Persons 141 150 158 166 174 183 193 205 215 226 237 405 609 797 464

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

21 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.13: Incidence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Footscray (Western Males798284868890949699102106162238316300 Metropolitan) Females 138 142 144 147 151 157 162 166 168 172 176 239 336 440 218 Persons 217 224 228 233 239 247 256 262 267 274 282 401 574 756 248 Forest Hill (Eastern Males 81 86 89 92 96 101 106 110 113 118 122 178 257 342 320 Metropolitan) Females 122 125 128 131 134 139 143 147 151 156 160 226 315 395 223 Persons 204 211 217 223 231 240 248 257 264 274 282 404 572 737 262 Frankston (South Males 95 99 104 109 114 121 127 134 140 147 155 252 384 558 488 Eastern Females 157 161 165 169 176 184 191 197 203 210 218 317 459 616 293 Metropolitan) Persons 252 260 268 278 290 305 318 331 343 358 373 569 843 1174 366 Geelong (Western Males 95 98 102 106 111 114 120 125 131 136 140 222 337 481 407 Victoria) Females 161 165 168 173 177 183 189 194 197 203 209 291 415 541 237 Persons 255 264 270 278 288 298 309 318 327 339 349 512 752 1022 300 Gembrook (Eastern Males 64 69 74 79 84 90 96 103 110 118 125 232 386 550 758 Victoria) Females 94 100 105 111 118 126 134 142 149 159 169 302 494 703 644 Persons 158 169 179 190 202 216 230 245 259 277 294 534 880 1253 690 Gippsland East Males 119 128 136 142 148 155 167 176 184 196 207 345 556 807 579 (Eastern Victoria) Females 169 178 187 194 205 217 227 238 247 260 274 438 664 914 440 Persons 288 306 323 336 353 372 394 414 431 457 480 782 1220 1721 497 Gippsland South Males 97 103 107 112 118 125 130 136 141 147 154 241 368 496 413 (Eastern Victoria) Females 133 139 145 150 156 163 168 175 181 188 195 291 426 540 308 Persons 229 242 253 262 274 288 299 311 323 335 349 532 794 1037 352 Hastings (Eastern Males 66 71 74 79 85 90 97 103 110 117 124 223 345 465 602 Victoria) Females 85 89 95 100 106 112 119 126 133 140 148 266 416 550 549 Persons 151 160 170 179 191 202 216 230 243 257 273 489 761 1015 572 Hawthorn (Southern Males 78 82 86 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 202 318 459 492 Metropolitan) Females 164 168 169 170 174 179 183 185 188 192 195 265 376 470 186 Persons 242 250 256 260 269 278 287 295 302 312 321 467 694 928 284 Ivanhoe (Northern Males 111 116 122 126 131 136 142 148 154 161 167 243 371 506 356 Metropolitan) Females 180 186 190 194 200 208 214 219 224 230 236 313 444 555 208 Persons 291 303 312 320 331 344 356 367 377 390 402 557 814 1061 265

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

22 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.14: Incidence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Keilor (Western Males 58 63 68 73 79 86 93 100 107 115 122 219 351 493 745 Metropolitan) Females 90 96 103 110 117 126 133 141 148 157 167 282 446 621 587 Persons 149 160 171 183 196 211 226 241 255 272 290 501 796 1115 649 Kew (Southern Males 92 96 98 101 104 108 112 116 120 125 128 188 276 372 303 Metropolitan) Females 176 179 178 180 185 189 193 195 199 203 207 272 371 461 162 Persons 269 274 277 281 289 297 305 311 319 327 335 460 647 833 210 Kilsyth (Eastern Males6570737882869297102108113189278374475 Metropolitan) Females 96 102 106 110 116 120 126 132 137 143 150 229 340 434 353 Persons 161 171 179 188 197 206 218 230 239 250 263 418 618 808 402 Kororoit (Western Males576165697480869298104111198317456703 Metropolitan) Females 83 88 94 99 105 112 119 125 131 139 147 242 377 523 530 Persons 140 150 159 168 179 192 205 217 229 243 258 440 694 978 600 Lara (Western Males 82 87 93 99 104 109 117 124 131 138 145 250 388 558 578 Victoria) Females 119 126 132 138 146 154 162 169 176 185 194 305 446 579 387 Persons 201 213 225 237 250 264 279 292 307 324 339 555 834 1138 465 Lowan (Western Males 114 121 126 133 139 146 154 160 166 174 181 268 393 534 367 Victoria) Females 185 192 198 204 213 222 230 236 242 251 257 355 500 635 243 Persons 299 313 324 337 352 367 384 397 408 425 438 622 893 1169 291 Lyndhurst (South Males 82 87 93 98 104 111 119 126 132 140 148 246 387 538 559 Eastern Females 120 127 134 140 147 156 164 173 181 189 197 306 466 616 416 Metropolitan) Persons 201 214 227 237 251 267 283 299 313 329 345 552 853 1155 474 Macedon (Northern Males 68 73 80 85 91 98 104 113 120 129 136 239 384 540 700 Victoria) Females 100 106 112 117 124 133 140 149 156 164 175 300 480 682 585 Persons 167 179 192 202 215 230 245 262 276 293 310 540 864 1223 632 Malvern (Southern Males 92 99 104 108 113 120 127 134 139 146 152 238 369 511 453 Metropolitan) Females 165 171 176 180 187 195 202 208 214 222 230 335 499 684 314 Persons 258 269 279 288 300 315 329 342 354 368 382 573 868 1195 364 Melbourne (Northern Males 79 83 88 92 97 103 110 116 123 130 137 249 411 584 643 Metropolitan) Females 124 128 133 138 144 152 160 168 176 186 195 334 545 749 506 Persons 202 212 221 230 241 256 270 284 299 316 332 582 956 1332 559

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

23 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.15: Incidence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Melton (Western Males 61 68 75 82 90 97 106 115 123 134 144 297 487 719 1080 Victoria) Females 96 106 117 128 138 149 161 175 186 199 214 418 697 983 923 Persons 157 174 191 210 227 247 267 290 310 333 358 715 1185 1702 984 Mildura (Northern Males 90 97 104 109 115 121 128 136 141 148 153 236 365 500 456 Victoria) Females 145 152 159 167 174 182 191 198 207 216 224 333 505 693 378 Persons 235 250 263 276 289 303 319 334 348 364 378 570 870 1193 408 Mill Park (Northern Males515560657076829095103112191287384654 Metropolitan) Females 70 76 82 88 94 102 110 118 124 133 141 243 375 513 631 Persons 121 131 142 152 165 178 192 207 220 236 253 434 662 897 641 Mitcham (Eastern Males 81 85 89 91 95 99 104 108 110 114 118 169 241 317 289 Metropolitan) Females 122 124 127 130 132 136 140 144 148 153 156 216 293 362 198 Persons 203 210 215 221 227 236 243 252 258 267 274 385 534 679 234 Monbulk (Eastern Males5155596265697377808488154237327536 Victoria) Females 78 83 85 89 92 96 100 104 108 112 117 183 274 351 347 Persons 130 137 144 151 157 165 173 181 188 196 205 338 510 678 422 Mordialloc (South Males 96 100 104 107 110 113 118 122 126 131 135 201 293 377 295 Eastern Females 107 107 109 110 111 114 115 118 121 124 126 185 235 273 156 Metropolitan) Persons 202 207 213 217 221 227 234 240 246 254 261 386 528 650 221 Mornington (Eastern Males 119 126 132 138 146 155 165 174 179 189 199 314 489 679 472 Victoria) Females 177 187 194 201 209 219 229 239 247 258 269 414 621 858 385 Persons 295 313 327 340 355 374 394 413 427 446 468 728 1110 1538 420 Morwell (Eastern Males666974798287929699104110185281391493 Victoria) Females 106 112 116 121 126 130 135 142 146 153 159 251 370 480 352 Persons 172 181 189 200 208 217 227 238 246 257 269 436 652 870 406 Mount Waverley Males 105 112 118 124 131 138 146 152 158 165 172 234 337 444 323 (South Eastern Females 146 152 159 164 171 180 188 196 202 210 217 300 441 570 291 Metropolitan) Persons 251 264 277 288 303 318 334 348 360 376 389 535 778 1014 304 Mulgrave (South Males 80 86 92 97 103 110 118 125 131 140 148 239 378 542 577 Eastern Females 127 134 140 145 152 160 168 175 182 191 199 302 463 625 391 Metropolitan) Persons 207 220 231 241 255 270 285 301 314 330 346 541 842 1167 463

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

24 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.16: Incidence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Murray Valley Males 100 105 110 115 120 125 132 138 143 150 157 243 358 478 380 (Northern Victoria) Females 154 160 165 171 178 186 195 202 210 219 227 332 475 614 299 Persons 254 266 275 286 298 311 327 340 354 369 383 575 833 1092 331 Narracan (Eastern Males 104 111 117 124 132 140 147 156 162 173 184 297 460 655 532 Victoria) Females 157 166 175 184 193 204 215 223 233 243 255 392 601 837 434 Persons 261 277 293 308 325 344 362 379 395 416 439 689 1061 1493 473 Narre Warren North Males5357606467727782869297165260358581 (South Eastern Females757983889297103109114120125200307410446 Metropolitan) Persons 128 136 144 152 159 169 179 191 200 211 223 366 567 769 502 Narre Warren South Males687479849096103111117125133240374501636 (South Eastern Females 106 113 120 127 135 144 154 164 173 184 195 334 533 727 586 Metropolitan) Persons 174 186 199 212 225 240 257 275 290 309 328 574 907 1227 606 Nepean (Eastern Males 151 159 166 174 182 188 196 203 210 218 225 340 500 643 326 Victoria) Females 221 231 241 250 261 272 284 296 306 318 329 498 760 1011 357 Persons 372 390 407 424 443 460 480 499 516 536 554 838 1260 1655 345 Niddrie (Western Males 86 93 100 106 111 117 126 133 139 145 151 223 327 422 392 Metropolitan) Females 123 132 141 148 157 166 177 188 197 207 215 322 495 668 441 Persons 209 226 241 254 268 284 302 321 336 352 366 545 822 1090 421 Northcote (Northern Males 92 97 102 107 111 117 124 128 134 139 147 215 322 465 403 Metropolitan) Females 137 142 146 150 156 163 168 174 178 186 193 258 360 471 242 Persons 230 239 248 257 267 280 292 303 312 325 340 473 682 936 307 Oakleigh (Southern Males 102 105 109 111 115 120 124 127 130 135 139 197 292 391 284 Metropolitan) Females 165 168 171 173 176 182 186 190 192 196 200 262 364 447 171 Persons 267 273 280 284 292 302 310 317 323 331 339 459 656 838 214 Pascoe Vale (Western Males 114 119 123 127 131 134 139 141 145 149 151 189 252 308 170 Metropolitan) Females 179 186 192 198 204 212 218 223 226 232 237 278 345 390 117 Persons 293 306 315 325 335 346 357 364 371 381 388 467 597 698 138 Polwarth (Western Males 98 104 110 113 118 124 131 137 142 147 154 240 370 507 418 Victoria) Females 155 162 168 174 179 188 196 203 210 217 225 336 501 676 337 Persons 253 266 278 287 296 312 327 339 352 364 378 576 871 1183 368

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

25 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.17: Incidence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change Prahran (Southern Males 84 88 91 94 97 102 108 114 117 122 127 204 318 439 424 Metropolitan) Females 136 140 143 146 150 155 160 165 168 174 180 270 402 544 301 Persons 220 228 235 241 247 257 268 279 285 295 307 473 720 983 348 Preston (Northern Males 118 124 130 135 144 151 158 165 171 178 186 259 364 496 322 Metropolitan) Females 179 187 195 203 212 222 229 236 244 252 260 335 449 565 216 Persons 297 311 325 338 355 373 387 401 415 429 445 594 813 1061 258 Richmond (Northern Males6165687174788285889296146215286369 Metropolitan) Females 91 94 97 99 103 107 111 116 120 126 130 195 301 405 346 Persons 152 159 165 170 178 186 193 200 208 218 226 341 517 690 355 Ripon (Western Males 104 109 115 120 126 133 139 148 153 160 166 250 368 511 392 Victoria) Females 149 155 161 167 173 182 189 196 201 209 216 311 454 612 311 Persons 253 264 276 287 299 315 328 344 354 369 382 560 822 1122 344 Rodney (Northern Males 103 110 117 121 127 135 142 149 156 165 173 278 430 609 491 Victoria) Females 145 150 156 161 168 177 184 193 200 208 217 330 504 696 380 Persons 248 260 273 281 295 312 326 342 356 373 390 608 934 1305 426 Sandringham Males 94 96 97 100 101 102 104 107 109 112 115 167 236 297 217 (Southern Females 167 168 169 170 170 172 174 177 178 180 182 233 307 361 116 Metropolitan) Persons 261 264 266 270 271 274 279 284 287 291 297 400 543 658 152 Scoresby (Eastern Males 76 82 87 92 98 105 112 120 126 134 142 238 379 534 604 Metropolitan) Females 121 127 133 138 145 153 160 167 174 183 190 295 456 614 407 Persons 197 209 220 230 243 257 271 287 300 317 333 532 836 1148 483 Seymour (Northern Males727882879299106112119125132237376520619 Victoria) Females 101 106 113 119 125 133 139 149 155 163 171 291 460 621 516 Persons 173 184 196 206 218 232 245 261 274 288 304 528 836 1141 559 Shepparton Males 88 94 100 104 111 117 125 133 140 148 156 246 371 510 480 (Northern Victoria) Females 138 147 156 161 170 177 187 195 202 211 220 327 490 672 386 Persons 226 241 256 265 281 294 312 328 342 359 376 573 861 1183 422 South Barwon Males 120 129 137 145 154 164 176 187 198 208 219 368 586 855 612 (Western Victoria) Females 200 211 221 231 242 258 271 285 297 311 327 515 811 1139 470 Persons 320 340 358 375 396 422 447 472 495 519 546 883 1397 1995 523

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

26 State Electoral Districts

Table 3.18: Incidence projections, by SED, continued

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 % change South‐West Coast Males 78 82 85 89 91 96 100 105 109 114 119 189 260 329 321 (Western Victoria) Females 151 157 161 166 171 175 181 187 194 200 208 311 464 602 298 Persons 229 239 246 255 262 271 281 292 302 314 327 500 725 930 306 Swan Hill (Northern Males 102 107 110 114 117 122 127 133 137 142 147 212 301 407 301 Victoria) Females 140 146 150 154 159 164 169 173 177 182 187 267 390 529 279 Persons 241 252 260 267 276 286 296 305 314 323 334 479 691 937 288 Tarneit (Western Males5662677278849299106114122235386549872 Metropolitan) Females 74 80 86 92 99 105 112 120 127 135 144 272 425 541 634 Persons 130 142 152 165 177 189 204 219 234 249 266 507 810 1090 737 Thomastown Males 87 93 98 103 109 115 122 128 134 140 146 209 298 392 351 (Northern Females 123 130 137 143 151 159 167 175 181 189 197 270 377 472 285 Metropolitan) Persons 209 223 235 246 260 274 289 303 315 329 343 479 675 863 312 Warrandyte (Eastern Males 73 78 83 87 91 96 102 107 112 117 123 198 286 366 401 Metropolitan) Females 120 127 132 138 145 151 159 167 174 181 189 287 427 545 356 Persons 193 205 215 225 236 247 260 274 286 298 312 485 713 911 373 Williamstown Males 84 88 92 94 98 102 108 112 116 121 126 193 296 405 384 (Western Females 132 137 141 146 150 157 163 169 174 179 185 261 374 501 278 Metropolitan) Persons 216 226 233 240 248 259 271 282 290 300 311 454 669 906 319 Yan Yean (Northern Males525762667177838996102110211329442745 Metropolitan) Females 70 74 80 85 90 96 102 110 116 124 131 248 383 502 617 Persons 122 131 141 151 161 172 185 199 212 226 241 459 712 944 672 Yuroke (Western Males465055606572798793101109200323458905 Metropolitan) Females 62 68 74 79 85 92 100 109 117 125 133 243 384 530 756 Persons 108 118 129 139 150 164 179 196 210 226 242 443 708 988 819

Total (VIC) Males 7,567 8,028 8,454 8,857 9,310 9,805 10,364 10,903 11,382 11,950 12,529 20,060 30,646 42,282 459 Females 11,789 12,311 12,781 13,232 13,788 14,421 15,024 15,633 16,174 16,828 17,492 26,335 39,148 51,832 340 Persons 19,356 20,339 21,235 22,089 23,098 24,227 25,388 26,536 27,556 28,779 30,021 46,395 69,795 94,114 386

Source: Access Economics calculations. Note: Upper House Regions shown in brackets.

27 State Electoral Districts

4 Mapping of dementia prevalence

28 State Electoral Districts

29 State Electoral Districts

30 State Electoral Districts

31 State Electoral Districts

32 State Electoral Districts

33 State Electoral Districts

Appendix A

Table A.1: Upper House regions

Eastern Metropolitan Region Southern Metropolitan Region South Eastern Metropolitan Region Northern Metropolitan Region Western Metropolitan Region Source: Victorian Electoral Commission.

Table A.2: State Electoral Districts

Albert Park Cranbourne Lara Northcote Altona Dandenong Lowan Oakleigh Ballarat East Derrimut Lyndhurst Pascoe Vale Ballarat West Doncaster Macedon Polwarth Bass Eltham Malvern Prahran Bayswater Essendon Melbourne Preston Bellarine Evelyn Melton Richmond Benalla Ferntree Gully Mildura Ripon Benambra Footscray Mill Park Rodney Bendigo East Forest Hill Mitcham Sandringham Bendigo West Frankston Monbulk Scoresby Bentleigh Geelong Mordialloc Seymour Box Hill Gembrook Mornington Shepparton Brighton Gippsland East Morwell South Barwon Broadmeadows Gippsland South Mount Waverley South‐West Coast Brunswick Hastings Mulgrave Swan Hill Bulleen Hawthorn Murray Valley Tarneit Bundoora Ivanhoe Narracan Thomastown Burwood Keilor Narre Warren North Warrandyte Carrum Kew Narre Warren South Williamstown Caulfield Kilsyth Nepean Yan Yean Clayton Kororoit Niddrie Yuroke Source: ABS

34 State Electoral Districts

Figure A.1: Non‐metropolitan electoral regions map showing districts

Source: Victorian Electoral Commission.

35 State Electoral Districts

Figure A.2: Metropolitan electoral regions map showing districts

Source: Victorian Electoral Commission.

36 State Electoral Districts

References

ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) 2006, ‘Physical Activity in Australia: A Snapshot, 2004‐05’; Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Cat. No. 4835.0.55.001, Canberra.

Access Economics, 2009, ‘Keeping dementia front of mind: incidence and prevalence 2009‐ 2050’, http://www.alzheimers.org.au/content.cfm?infopageid=6012, accessed 03 March 2010.

‐ 2009a Making choices ‐ future dementia care: projections, problems and preferences’, Report for Alzheimer’s Australia, available at http://www.alzheimers.org.au/content.cfm?infopageid=5604, accessed 03 September 2009

‐ 2006, ‘Dementia prevalence and incidence among Australians who do not speak English at home’, http://www.accesseconomics.com.au/, accessed 03 March 2010.

‐ 2005, ‘Dementia estimates and projections: Australian states and territories’, http://www.accesseconomics.com.au/, accessed 03 March 2010.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) 2008, ‘Australia’s health 2008’, Cat. no. AUS 99, Canberra.

Barendregt, J, 2004, ‘DISMOD Workshop on practical aspects of conducting a burden of disease and injury study’, Brisbane, November‐December 2004

Corrada, MM, Brookmeyer, R, Berlau, D, Paganini‐Hill, A, Kawas, CH 2008, ‘Prevalence of dementia after age 90. Results from the 90+ study’, Neurology, 71: 337‐343.

Dementia Collaborative Research Centres (DCRC) 2007, ‘Dementia risk reduction: The evidence’, Alzheimer’s Australia Paper No. 13, http://www.alzheimers.org.au/upload/RiskReductionSept07.pdf, accessed 04 March 2010.

Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) 2006, ‘Dementia – A national health priority’ Dementia research mapping project, Australian Department of Health and Ageing, Canberra.

Harvey, RJ, Skelton‐Robinson, M, and Rossor, MN 2003, ‘The prevalence and causes of dementia in people under the age of 65 years’, Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry, 74: 1206‐1209

Jekel, JF, Katz, DL, Elmore, JG 2001, ‘Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Preventative Medicine, 2nd ed’, W.B. Saunders Company, Philadelphia.

Lucca, U, Garri, M, Nobili, A, Pasina, L, Gandini, F, Riva, E, Tettamanti, M 2009, ‘Risk of dementia continues to rise in the oldest old: The Monzino 80‐plus study’, Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 5: 381.

37 State Electoral Districts

Victorian Electoral Commission 2005, Electoral regions showing districts, http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/images/maps/stateAllRegionsandDistricts.pdf, accessed 16 March 2010.

38