Managing Manpower Shortage Psychological Defence

Cabinet C: Total Defence Military Defence: Managing Manpower Shortage Psychological Defence: Managing Social Challenges 1 Table of Content Table of Content 2 MILITARY DEFENCE 4 Introduction 4 Historical Overview 5 1st Generation (1960s to early 1980s): 5 2nd generation (Early 1980s to late 1990s): 6 Current Situation 8 Shift away from a manpower-based military: 8 Bolstering the SAF’s cyber defences: 8 Female conscription: 9 Revising deployment and recruitment policies: 10 Recruiting and training cyber-security specialists: 10 Current Constraints 11 Military strength getting compromised by female conscription 11 Maintaining a commitment and resolve to defend Singapore 12 Increased vulnerability to cyberattacks 13 Questions for Discussion 13 Bibliography 14 PSYCHOLOGICAL DEFENCE 16 Introduction 16 Historical Overview 16 Current Situation 19 Complacent mindset towards terrorism 19 Rising threat of information warfare 20 Current Considerations 24 Simulated terror attacks 24 Select Committee on Deliberate Online Falsehoods and POFMA 26 Ensuring no community feels marginalised 28 Internal Security Act 28 Current Constraints 29 Deep, underlying reasons for complacency against terrorism 29 2 False information difficult to identify in the share-first and crowded online world 30 Extremist groups harnessing the Internet 31 Questions for Discussion 32 Bibliography 33 Annex A 35 Annex B 36 3 MILITARY DEFENCE Introduction By 1971, British troops had completely withdrawn from Singapore - leaving the nation almost defenseless in the face of several security and economic threats. The Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) was merely in their infancy and had a long way to go in building up their own defence capabilities. Moreover, the removal of British troops had also affected at least 20% of Singapore's GDP during the period, hence slowing down economic growth as well. As such, in order to better protect its national borders and preserve its sovereign status as a nation, Singapore eventually tripled its military spending and embarked on military cooperation with other countries like Israel and was a member of the Five Power Defence Arrangement (with Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia), effectively replacing the Anglo-Malayan defence agreement (Lim, 2017). Meanwhile, Britain granted economic and military aid such as a soft loan of £50 million, to help with operating air-defence systems and training of military staff (Turnbull, 2009). These new initiatives were implemented in order to safeguard Singapore’s sovereignty, and bolster its military competencies in light of the British withdrawal, and its new status as an independent nation. 4 Historical Overview 1st Generation (1960s to early 1980s): In 1967, the Singapore Armed Forces was therefore established under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defence, in order for Singapore to grow its military capabilities, and safeguard its own borders. This was also in conjunction with the earlier National Service Act enacted on 15 March 1967 which would enable Singapore's defence needs to be better met through compulsory conscription of Singaporean males ("National Service Obligation", n.d.). Since then, military defence has become a cornerstone of Singapore's Total Defence framework. The following section helps trace the various milestone developments of the Singapore Armed Forces and helps capture specific agenda that have shifted over the years. The first phase of Singapore’s build-up of its military defence capabilities was through the process of conscription. Singapore had only 1000 soldiers at the time of independence. To build up a substantial military force, it emulated Israeli and Swiss conscription models. Nearly 9000 males became the first batch of the NS conscription model. The NS (amendment) Act was passed on 15 March 1967 (Singapore, 2015). After the British military pulled out, Singapore enlisted the help of Israel covertly to build a larger and economically efficient defence force. As an extremely young country, Singapore desperately needed assistance in building up its defence. It saw itself as a little country surrounded by neighbours which were not necessarily friendly to Singapore’s interests. In many ways, Israel was facing a “similar” situation in the Middle East, as the only Jewish nation surrounded by Arab neighbours. Moreover, during this period, Israel was the only country to provide assistance in establishing the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF). 5 Following Singapore's separation from Malaysia in August 1965, Singapore established full diplomatic relations with Israel. The Singaporean government modelled the country's armed forces, including its national service programme, after the Israeli Defense Forces. From 1966, Israeli military advisers were brought in to train the Singaporean military. Israel also supplied Singapore with military hardware including tanks and missiles (Ollie, 2016). 2nd generation (Early 1980s to late 1990s): By the 1967s, Singapore had built up sufficient military know-how, and was supported by regular and conscripted armed forces personnel. Its military defence agenda therefore also grew more comprehensive in this context, as Singapore took on a "dual approach" in its defence policies - based on the principles of Deterrence and Diplomacy. Military deterrence consists of ensuring an efficient and competent defence force. The 2nd generation saw a “shift from a "poisonous shrimp" to a "porcupine" strategy, which aims to inflict intolerable costs on potential enemies and outlast attackers in the event of a conflict.” (Mustafa, 2014). Singapore has ensured this through building a proficient military through military acquisitions of newer technology and participating in regional security measures. Singapore acquired Super Puma helicopters in 1983 and in 1990, added F-16 Fighting Falcon jets to its fleet. Meanwhile Singapore had begun conducting annual bilateral military exercises with the United States (DSO Singapore, n.d.). Singapore also defends itself through building strong diplomatic ties with other countries. The pillar of defence diplomacy is built by establishing strong and friendly ties, through extensive interactions and cooperation, with defence establishments and armed forces in the region and around the world. Singapore plays its part as a responsible member of the international 6 community by helping to uphold and shape a regional and international system in which all countries abide by international rules and norms. Singapore keenly understands that small states (such as itself) can survive and thrive only in a world where sovereignty is respected and where interactions between states are governed by the rule of law and therefore invests heavily in efforts to forge strong diplomatic relations with other nations. Through cooperation in defence, Singapore ensures that friendly ties are maintained. It further projects itself as a responsible member of the global community by providing disaster relief and helping in counter-terrorism missions. SAF’s provision of humanitarian aid started in 1970, when a 47-man team was sent to provide humanitarian assistance to East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) when it was hit by a devastating cyclone. Ever since, the Singapore Government has actively provided humanitarian aid to various countries. In both Iraq and Afghanistan, it has actively contributed to multinational reconstruction efforts (MINDEF Portal). In 2018, two Republic of Singapore Air Force C-130 aircraft with humanitarian supplies and equipment were sent to Indonesia after the earthquake and tsunami hit Sulawesi (CNA, 2018). Singapore constantly reiterates itself through these missions as a non-assertive and peaceful country, to build cordial and diplomatic relations with other nations so as to ensure that the security of Singapore is not compromised. 7 Current Situation Shift away from a manpower-based military: Changes in the country’s demography has eventually led to lesser men serving in the army. With a birth rate of 1.14, well below the replacement rate of 2.1, the country’s population has long been on a decline (Sin, 2019). In fact, by 2030, SAF will see a one-third reduction in manpower and it is said that by 2065, the male NS-age cohort will be below 50% of its current size (Ho, 2015). The demographic change is already leading to a manpower crunch whereby soldiers are being appointed with more roles and responsibilities. For example, full-time NSFs are operating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) which was previously only done by regulars (Lim, 2019). When NSFs begin undertaking roles which were previously only done by more highly skilled regulars, the issue of safety is inevitably brought up. An incident that shook the nation recently was the death of NS reservist and actor Aloysius Pang, which was a result of a security mishap (Mahmud, 2019). When less experienced NSFs are trained for more difficult roles, their safety could be at risk of being compromised. Ensuring the safety of NSFs in this potentially dangerous context will be one of the greatest challenges the SAF will need to overcome in the future. Bolstering the SAF’s cyber defences: Meanwhile, the rise in “hybrid” threats has led to an increased focus on the cyber domains. Singapore is leveraging on cutting-edge technology (Artificial Intelligence (AI), data analytics, robotics, etc.) in all areas of defence. However, this increasing reliance on technology may also simultaneously increase the nation’s vulnerability to cyberattacks. According to the Ministry of Health and Ministry

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