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The Aral Sea: an Ecological Disaster By: I The Aral Sea: An Ecological Disaster By: I. Rudenko and J. P. A. Lamers CASE STUDY #8-6 OF THE PROGRAM: "FOOD POLICY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM" 2010 Edited by: Per Pinstrup-Andersen ([email protected]) Cornell University In collaboration with: Soren E. Frandsen, FOI, University of Copenhagen Arie Kuyvenhoven, Wageningen University Joachim von Braun, International Food Policy Research Institute Executive Summary The dimension of the human-induced ecological annually yielded 40,000 metric tons1 of fish, while disaster in Central Asia is probably best illustrated the deltas of its major tributaries hosted dozens of in the desiccation of the Aral Sea. In I960 this smaller lakes and biologically rich marshes and water body had a surface area of more than wetlands covering 550,000 hectares (ha). The Aral 68,000 square kilometers [km2) and was the Sea Basin extends not only to five Central Asian fourth-Iargest freshwater lake in the world. In 2009 countries, but also to Afghanistan and a small part only the “Small Aral," the western part of the of Iran (Figure I). The total area of the ASB is 180 "Large Aral," and a little pond from the eastern million hectares, of which 7.9 million hectares are part of the "Large Aral" remained. irrigated with more than 95 km3 of water annually (Dukhovny and Sokolov 2003; Kijne 2005; Micklin Much has been written and said on the causes and 2008). Irrigation water is delivered through consequences of the vanishing Aral Sea. Numerous 323,000 km of canals [Orlovsky, Glantz, and donors and international organizations have imple­ Orlovsky 2000), and water outflow from irrigated mented more than 20 large-scale projects worth fields is channeled through 190,000 km of drainage about US$500 million in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB). collectors and drains (Severskiy et al. 2005). Most Concurrently, much research has focused on how of the people in the ASB reside within the area to reverse the negative trend or mitigate its nega­ drained by the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, the tive impact on the environment, economy, and two rivers that once flowed into the Aral Sea and health of the people. Nonetheless, the Aral Sea has whose waters originate in the Pamir and Tian Shan not been restored. Worse, in the past decade the mountains in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and remnants of the Aral Sea have desiccated even Afghanistan. faster than calculations and model simulations pre­ dicted. The complete loss of the economical use of Feeding Rivers and Water Supply the Aral Sea threatens the livelihood and health of The size of the Aral Sea depends largely on the the population. The disastrous degradation of the balance between inflows from the two main feeding ecosystems has led to the virtual extinction of rivers [Figure 1) and the sea's net evaporation (that unique flora and fauna and to a dramatic increase is, the difference between evaporation from the in human illnesses such as respiratory diseases, sea's surface and precipitation) (Micklin 2008). The hepatitis, and anemia. Have all of the research and ASB is characterized by high evaporation and low the efforts to save the Aral Sea been in vain? Can precipitation (Jarsjo et al. 2008). For centuries, the the Aral Sea, or at least part of it, still be saved? freshwater from the two rivers kept the Aral's Or must the local and global communities focus water and salt at tolerable levels. In the middle of merely on mitigating the severe environmental and the 20th century the Amu Darya had an average human consequences of the sea's desiccation? And annual flow of 77 km3 and the Syr Darya had a flow if so, how? of 34 km3, whereas water use in the ASB amounted to about 117 km3 annually (Nandalal and Simonovic Your assignment is to formulate policy recom­ 2003). Between 80 and 95 percent of this water mendations for the riparian states in Central Asia was used for irrigated agriculture and hence did to deal with the problems identified in this case. not reach the Aral Sea (Kipshakbayev and Sokolov 2002; Horinkova and Dukhovny 2004; Severskiy Background et al. 2005). The drive for economic development by the The Aral Sea lies between the two great deserts of former Soviet Union starting in the second half of Central Asia. Until the 1960s, the Aral Sea was the the 20th century triggered the expansion of fourth-Iargest freshwater inland lake in the world, irrigated (cotton) production. Large dams were with a surface of 68,000 km2 and a volume of built in the upper reaches of both feeding rivers, 1,056 cubic kilometers (km3). This water body 1 All tons in this case study are metric tons, unless otherwise noted. Figure 1: The A ra l Sea Basin and a vast system of feeding canals was constructed [Oriental Express Central Asia n.d.]. After the to divert water to the most remote regions, mainly gradual receding of the water, a broad plain of to enhance cotton production. The establishment highly saline soil became exposed, with a few of this impressive irrigation network added millions remaining intermittent water bodies. One remnant of hectares for agricultural production in this arid of this ancient sea became the Aral Sea.2 The region. evidence further shows that in the past 9,000 years the surface has been completely or partly The present water supply to irrigated areas in the flooded and desiccated at least eight times [Aladin ASB includes not only the actual water diverted and Plotnikov 1995; Aladin, Micklin, and Plotnikov from the rivers, but also drainage water resulting 2008], At times, the level of the Aral Sea has from agricultural return flow and wastewater. The fluctuated by up to 30-35 meters. All previous remarkable increase in cotton production since the episodes of desiccation have been caused by 1960s cemented a livelihood for many but depleted climatic alteration and natural diversions of the water supplies and neglected the preservation of feeding rivers away from the sea. The potential role precious natural resources: the entire ASB is at of rainfall variations is unclear, yet there is a con­ present saddled with a water and environmental sensus that they played a smaller role than the crisis. From both a quantity and quality or safety migration of the rivers [Kes and Klyukanova 1990], perspective, the ASB now faces one of the world's Anthropogenic contributions to the dying of the most critical shortages of water resources, whether sea are also undeniable. Starting about 3,000 years for irrigation or for drinking. ago, the region's population increased and irrigated agriculture commenced, leading to sizable with­ drawals and diversions of river water for irrigation History of the Aral Sea [Micklin 1988], Historical, geophysical, and anecdotal evidence sug­ gest that the "drying" of the Aral Sea must have occurred previously. It is argued that millions of years ago the northwestern part of present Uzbekistan and the southern parts of present 2 The sea was called the Aral Tengizi ["Sea of Islands" in Kazakhstan were covered by a vast inland sea Kazakh] because it used to contain more than 1,000 islands. The most recent recession of the Aral Sea, how­ bodies: the North or "Small" Aral in Kazakhstan ever, dwarfs the previous events. In the past and the "Large" Aral in Uzbekistan, which later century two short periods of record high flows became the "West" and "East" Aral [Micklin 2008], were offset by three longer dry spells in the 1960s, The desiccated sea floor created a new desert called the mid-1970s, and the early 1980s. Although the the Aralkum Desert. By 2007 the sea's area had most recent desiccation may be partly natural in further shrunk to only 10 percent of its size in the origin, stemming from droughts or even climate 1960s, and the salinity of the remaining sea sur­ change, it has also resulted from human mis­ passed 100 grams per liter. With continuing water management of water and ever-increasing water withdrawals from the feeding rivers, the sea was withdrawals since the 1960s from the Amu Darya expected to contract even further by the second or and Syr Darya rivers for the production of "white third decade of the 21st century, but a changing gold"—cotton [Micklin 1988; Brookfield 1999], The climate has sped up the drying even further. In combined effects of natural and human causes have 2009 the eastern part of the "Large Aral" turned provoked the dramatic decline of available water into a pond [Figure 2] and the western part also resources, which in turn has resulted in the present shrank considerably. In contrast, concerted efforts shrinkage of the Aral Sea [Saiko and Zonn 2000], by the Kazakh government and international or­ ganizations restored the "Small Aral," through the construction in 2005 of the 13-kilometer-Iong, Recent Shrinkage of the Sea US$85.5 million Kok-Aral Dam and dike, which In 2004 the remainder of the Aral Sea's surface presently regulate the flow from the Small into the amounted to about 17,000 km2, or 25 percent of Large Aral. Underground water discharge from the its size in 1960. The water volume had decreased by original sources may find its way to the sea 80 percent, whereas the salt concentration had in­ through geological layers. Yet with an estimated 4 creased at least five times, eradicating unique flora km3 of water per year, this underground inflow will and fauna and preventing the survival of most of not stop, let alone reverse, the desiccation.
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