NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014

Auspicious cropping season conditions through August deteriorate in September

Figure 1. Current food security outcomes for KEY MESSAGES October 2013

 In general, according to preliminary harvest assessments, net nationwide cereal production is insufficient to meet human consumption needs. Such assessments show production deficits in all parts of the country with the exception of the Dosso and Maradi regions. The largest such deficits are in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions, with small pockets in the Tahoua and Zinder regions.

 Household food access and livelihoods for October are fair to good. The Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase1) experienced by households in all livelihood zones in October could last through December and on through March of next year, except in certain localized areas where food security outcomes will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between January and Source: FEWS NET This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity outcomes March. for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity.  The sharp erosion in the food access and incomes of very poor and poor households will produce Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2) in certain areas between January and March of next year, particularly in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions and certain localized areas of the Tahoua and Zinder regions due to their production shortfalls and poor market access.

TYPICAL SEASONAL CALENDAR

Récolte riz de Déscente Remontée contre saison des des Soudure animaux au animaux Soudure sud Saison sèche Saison pluvieuse au nord Pluies Récolte principale de céréales, Récolte de décrue, de contre Sarclage, binage riz hivernal saison Préparation des sols Sarclage

août sept. oct. nov. déc. janv. févr. mars avr. mai juin Ventes subventionnés Reconstitution des stocks institutionnels, juil. de céréales gouvernementaux juil. Exode (migration pour travail) Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government.

NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014

Figure 2. Most likely estimated food security NATIONWIDE OVERVIEW outcomes for October through December 2013

Current situation With the end of the lean season, current conditions are marked by a normal sharp improvement in food security as harvests of fresh crops and sales of cash crops and livestock during the Tabaski holiday period strengthen food availability and household income.

The agropastoral season was marred by a poor distribution of rainfall. The areas hardest hit by these poor rainfall conditions were the Tillabéri and Diffa regions, where the season got off to a late start and the rains stopped with crops still in the heading/flowering stages. There are reports of similar conditions in a number of small pockets in the Tahoua and Zinder regions. Source: FEWS NET The Tillabéri, Niamey, and Dosso regions are also reporting other serious effects from the diluvial rains in August, which caused Figure 3. Most likely estimated food security flooding and losses of rainfed and irrigated rice crops. outcomes for January through March 2014

The preliminary harvest assessment conducted in October by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics puts net nationwide production for this past growing season at 3,699,082 metric tons of millet, sorghum, maize, fonio, rice, and wheat. Together, millet and sorghum production, at 3,679,001 metric tons, account for over 99 percent of this figure, which is more or less average, though lower than last year, but up from 2011. Set against the consumption needs of the country’s 17,394,887 inhabitants, this production figure translates into an estimated 319,000 MT deficit, mainly of rice and wheat but also of locally grown cereals, heavily concentrated in the Niamey, Dosso, and Tillabéri regions in the case of rice and in the Tillabéri, Diffa, Tahoua, and Zinder regions in the case of millet and sorghum. Source: FEWS NET These maps show relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for Rough estimates by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics put cash emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily reflect chronic crop production at two million metric tons, compared with the food insecurity. average of 1.7 million MT and last year’s figure of 1.6 million MT, including cowpeas, groundnuts, sesame, chufa nuts, and peas. This increase in production could be attributable to the better rainfall conditions for cash crops, the larger cropped area, and the quality of the seeds furnished by the government and its partners. Local sales of cowpeas and groundnuts are generating average amounts of income, though the income levels of farmers are down from previous months.

While the rainy season got off to a later than usual start in July, there were no ensuing periods of drought affecting pasture production. The heavy August rains helped produce lush pastures. According to the findings by assessment missions conducted by the Pastoral Development Agency for the last pastoral season, in general, there is an average supply of pasture, with disparities between different regions and areas. There are good levels of biomass production in farming and agropastoral areas, grazing enclaves, and forest areas, with high-density pastures of 900 to 1000 kilograms of herbaceous cover per hectare. Some pastoral areas of Dakoro, Tanout, and Gouré are showing average levels of pasture production, with pasture density ranging from 500 to 700 kilograms of dry matter per hectare. Pasture production in pastoral areas of Nguigmi, Mainé Soroa, Diffa, Ouallam, Filingué, Tchitabaraden, Abalack, and Tchirozérine is poor, where average pasture density ranges from 200 to 400 kg of dry matter per hectare, at most.

Any herd movements in pastoral areas are internal, in search of pasture, though there have been sightings of large concentrations of livestock, particularly in heavy pasture areas. In farming areas, there have been sightings of herd movements and large concentrations of livestock in grazing enclaves, forest areas, grassland areas of the Niger River Valley,

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014 and other large range areas. The main seasonal migration period for transhumant herds has not yet gotten underway. With the satisfaction of their pasture needs, animals are in good physical condition.

The last food assistance programs under the 2012/13 assistance plan for the past consumption year began with the third round of subsidized sales of 12,000 metric tons of cereal at 13,000 CFAF per 100 kg sack in all areas of the country. The government has crafted a preliminary assistance plan for the period from October through December as part of the planning process for the delivery of food assistance for the 2013/14 year. The goal is the delivery of emergency and resilience-building assistance to 1.2 million recipients, compared with an average of 1.5 to 2 million recipients. A final assistance plan will be drawn up in January/February of next year covering the period from January to April/May and from June to September based on the findings by different joint food insecurity and vulnerability assessments.

Market supplies consist mainly of millet and cowpeas. Cowpea supplies consist of crops sold by farmers, while millet supplies consist of typical carry-over stocks from last year and fresh crops gradually making their way to market, though in somewhat smaller than average quantities. There is an above-average flow of cereal trade from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Benin to markets in Niger for this time of year, which accounts for most market cereal supplies. With harvests ongoing, cereal demand for October (for millet and sorghum) was down from previous months and in line with seasonal norms. Pastoral households and traders are responsible for most market purchases of cereal. Procurements for the rebuilding of institutional cereal stocks have not yet started up.

Prices for all types of cereal have started to come down in line with normal seasonal trends and, for the most part, are on par with figures for last year. However, they are still above the five-year average, in some cases by as much as 30 to 50 percent, though prices on markets in the western part of the country are on par with the average. The high levels of cereal prices could be attributable to the fact that most market supplies for September/October consisted of high-priced, older inventories and imports from neighboring countries. The highest prices (30 to 50 percent above-average) are on the Maradi, Zinder, Diffa, Tahoua, and Agadez markets affected by the sharp reduction in the volume of imports from Nigeria due to the continuing politico-religious conflict in that country, which is restricting trade flows.

Conditions on livestock markets in October were marked by good supplies and high demand for the celebration of Tabaski. Livestock prices are at their peak in October, especially prices for small animals, sheep in particular, which were up from the previous month by 33 percent and 29 percent above the five-year average. September prices for average male goats across the country were up by seven percent from August and 14 percent above the five-year average. However, with the high price of cereal, terms of trade for livestock versus cereal are below-average, though a male goat was still trading for the equivalent of over 100 kg of millet in September and expected to continue to bring in more than 100 kg of millet in October with the heightened demand for livestock for the religious holidays.

Household livelihood conditions are marked by normal access to wage income from work in the harvest and income from sales of cash crops (cowpeas), small animals, straw, and wood. Most household spending is on cereal purchases by poor and cereal-short households and on school fees for their children’s education. An average to high local demand is helping to generate normal to above-normal levels of income from the above-mentioned activities, except in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions where there is little local demand for farm labor for the harvest.

The national child nutrition survey put the global acute malnutrition rate at 13.3 percent in May/June of this year, compared with the five-year average of 13.54 percent. With the improvements in food security conditions in October, the lower incidence of health-related causes of malnutrition (malaria), and ongoing prevention programs, the current malnutrition rate should be under the figure of 13.3 percent for May/June of this year, which was also the beginning of the lean season. However, rates in the Maradi and Zinder regions, known for their traditionally high child malnutrition rates, could top 13 and 14 percent, which are average for these areas.

In general, household income in cash and in-kind was used to meet both food and nonfood needs in October. With last year’s good farming and pastoral season, the share of household spending going to pay off loans is not above normal. Very poor and poor households have adequate food access and protection of their livelihoods and, thus, experience « Minimal acute food insecurity » (IPC Phase 1) in October of this year.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for the period from October 2013 through March 2014 is based on the following underlying assumptions with respect to future trends in the nationwide situation:  Expected average harvests, added to carry-over stocks, will bolster food availability and ensure normal food intake between October and December of this year.  As of January of next year, food stocks will gradually be depleted, as usual, but households will be able to purchase needed provisions on markets whose supplies will be ensured by domestic and foreign trade through March, except in eastern Niger, where there will be a decline in the flow of trade along traditional trade routes.  There will be a normal to low demand for cereals between October and December, followed by a rise in demand between January and March of next year with direct institutional purchasing and the market dependence of poor households and households in cereal-short areas.  The good rainfall conditions in August and resulting good hydrologic conditions, combined with the assistance provided by the government and its partners, have created especially good conditions for the growing of irrigated crops, with the prospect of an average harvest.  Cereal prices will level off or possibly come down between October and December, stabilizing at levels above the seasonal average, before starting to rise between January and March of next year.  There will be average levels of pasture production and water availability for the watering of livestock, translating into average pastoral conditions, with some pasture and water deficits in the northwestern and far southeastern reaches of the country, where grazing and watering conditions will begin to deteriorate by January/February, particularly in the southeast where the added needs of Nigerian herds will further aggravate an already precarious situation.  In general, with the average conditions in local areas and in cross-border receiving areas for transhumant livestock, there should be no major disruptions in herd movements.  Demand and prices for livestock will benefit from the opportunities afforded by the religious and year-end holidays even more than usual and stay consistently high between October and December. The normalization of demand between January and March of next year and normal seasonal trends in prices will put terms of trade below the seasonal average.  Harvesting activities between October and December and crop maintenance work for irrigated crops between January and March will create and sustain normal local employment and income-earning opportunities. As usual, household income will be bolstered by remittances and cash-for-work activities under the government’s scheduled social assistance program between January and March.  There will be better-than-average self-employment opportunities (for the sale of wood, straw, and hand-made goods) and earnings from these activities between October and March with the good, longer-term availability of these products due to good biomass production and supplies of crop residues.  There will be a normal to above-normal flow of migration and remittance income with the larger numbers of short- term seasonal migrant workers heading to urban areas of Niger and traditional receiving countries, where economic and political conditions have been steadily improving, except for conditions in Nigeria and Libya, which will attract fewer such workers.  With the deterioration of conditions in gregarization areas causing locusts to migrate to North Africa, they should not affect irrigated crop production.  Planned deliveries of food assistance will be on par with the average between October and December and above- average between January and March with the growing numbers of households affected by harvest shortfalls.  There will be an increasing number of DPs from Nigeria, with Malian refugees gradually returning to their homes with the stable political situation in that country.

Most likely food security outcomes Food stocks from on-farm production for both 2012 and 2013 growing seasons and income from sales of livestock and cash crops will cover food requirements between October and December, leaving no unmet needs. In general, this will translate into Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

Between January and March, very poor and poor households will deplete their stocks of cereal and cash crops, making them entirely dependent on local markets, where high demand will drive prices above the seasonal average. With irrigated crops expected to generate average levels of cash and in-kind income and cereal prices expected to stay above-average, the volume of cereal purchases will be smaller than average but sufficient to meet consumption needs, which will be scaled

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014 back by the departure of one or more household members to engage in short-term seasonal labor migration. Accordingly, there will be Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in most areas of the country between January and March.

However, there will be localized food deficits, primarily in agropastoral and pastoral areas where some 1.2 million people (fewer than average) will have difficulty getting enough to eat with the high price of cereal and their limited livelihood strategies. Most of this population is concentrated in Ouallam (Tillabéri) and Nguigmi (Diffa) departments, but also includes inhabitants of certain departments in the Tahoua and Zinder regions in a similar situation who, like their counterparts in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions, will be facing Stressed acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2) between January and March.

AREAS OF CONCERN

Agropastoral areas of Ouallam Ouallam Department’s economy is based mainly on agriculture (harvests of winter millet, sorghum, cowpeas, groundnuts, and peas) and livestock-raising (cattle, sheep, and goats). Annual rainfall in this area ranges from 400 to 600 mm. Local crop production normally covers over 40 percent of household food needs and accounts for 18 percent of the income of very poor and poor households. Migration and sales of bush products (wood and straw) are also important sources of cash income for local households. The types of foods normally consumed by households in this area are furnished by on-farm production or purchased with income from livestock sales, farm labor, and sales of wood and straw.

Current situation This past cropping season benefitted by the government’s typical production assistance program in May/June through the distribution of 131 metric tons of millet, sorghum, and cowpea seeds to at-risk households and 45 ,397 metric tons of free cereal supplies and the sale of 435 metric tons of cereal at subsidized prices. Unlike conditions during last year’s growing season, which got off to a good start and progressed normally, this season was marred by delays in the planting of crops in July and a long period of drought in September during the reproductive phase of crops.

The findings from a joint mission by FEWS NET and other partners to the Tillabéri region and Ouallam Department highlighted the similarity of this year’s growing season in that area to the 2011 season, which produced 25,000 metric tons of millet and sorghum, translating into a production deficit of over 68,000 metric tons. However, last year’s good 83,554 metric ton harvest and 11,590 metric ton surplus of millet and sorghum would appear to suggest the existence of average to above-average carry-over stocks, though very poor and poor households, which account for approximately 61 percent of the area’s total population, have reportedly already depleted their food stocks.

There is a normal flow of commercial trade supplying weekly markets across the area with crops and animal products including millet, sorghum, rice, cowpeas, and milk, the largest of which are Ouallam, Mangayzé, Banné, Goubeye, and Simiri markets. The area engages in trade with the Niamey market, which supplies it with cereal and serves as an outlet for local bush products (straw, cowpea stalks, wood, and grass woven products). Prices are still slightly above the five-year average, by five percent in the case of millet and three percent in the case of sorghum. However, movements in September prices were in line with normal seasonal trends.

High demand for the celebration of Tabaski drove September prices for livestock in general and sheep in particular on the Ouallam market above the seasonal average, to 92,500 CFAF, compared with the normal seasonal average of 69,000 CFAF. September prices for goats were about-average, buying pastoralists 106 kg of millet, which represents a similar cereal equivalent to last year’s figure but is slightly below the five-year average, by three percent. The physical condition of livestock and milk production levels are normal.

According to the findings by the national survey of the nutritional status of children between 0 and 59 months of age conducted in May/June of this year, the global acute malnutrition rate in the Tillabéri region is 13.3 percent, which is close to the average for that region of 13.2 percent. The improvement in food security conditions in October should strengthen the nutritional situation, putting the malnutrition rate below the figure for May/June of this year, in line with seasonal trends.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario in this area for the period from October 2013 through March 2014 is based on the following assumptions:  There will be a crop production shortfall in this area, resulting in the loss of approximately 70 percent of food supplies from on-farm production and an earlier than usual reliance on market purchase beginning in December/January, as opposed to March.  With less output, better-off households will pay farm laborers below-average in-kind wages for their work in the harvest between October and December.  There will be a sharp decline in demand for labor between October and December due to the poor harvest.  Markets will be well-stocked with imports from normal trade with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin throughout the outlook period.  Cereal prices will stabilize at high levels compared with the seasonal average between October and December and, with the growth in demand, particularly institutional demand, will climb above the average between January and March.  With the better agro-meteorological conditions for these cash crops, there will be average harvests of cowpeas and peas selling for average prices between October and December.  High demand in urban Niamey, where animal-fattening ventures have become more and more of a year-round activity, will keep supplies and prices of wood and straw above-average between October and March of next year.  The expected normal levels of milk production and milk prices between October and December and into January will gradually decline, hovering around the seasonal average between January and March.  The physical condition and market value of livestock will be above-average between October and December and on par with average between January and March.  Annual assistance programs for very poor and poor households should progress normally between January and March of next year.  Above-average numbers of workers will engage in short-term seasonal migration beginning earlier than usual, in December, and continuing through March/April, producing a larger than normal flow of remittances (coming in December).

Most likely food security outcomes Very poor and poor households will have enough cash and in-kind income and be able to meet their food needs and cover nonfood expenses between October and January and, thus, will continue to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). Market purchase will become their main source of food by February-March, which is sooner than usual. With the combination of high prices and average incomes during this period, household purchasing power, measured against cereal prices, will buy just enough cereal to meet household food needs while, at the same time, creating livelihood protection deficits, eliciting Stressed acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2) from January to March.

Pastoral areas of Nguigmi Very poor and poor households make up the majority ( 56 percent) of the population of this area. Their livelihoods are based on the raising of one to two head of cattle, four to six small animals, and poultry. Rainfall in this area ranges from 100 to 200 mm. The main sources of household income are sales of livestock and animal products, the tending of livestock herds, sales of wood, charcoal, and straw, migrant remittances, and craft-making activities. The main sources of food are market purchases, animal products, grants and gifts/religious alms, school lunch programs, and in-kind payments. Most household spending involves purchases of food (millet and sorghum) and animal feed, the repayment of loans, and social spending (for feasts and other social events).

Current situation This year, the area was hard hit by a month-long delay in the start of the rainy season, followed by a long period of drought in the month of September. This limited new vegetative growth and delayed the growth of cereal crops. The heavy August rains caused Lake Chad to flood its banks, where poor households grow flood-recession maize crops. The higher than usual level of these floodwaters delayed the timely planting of crops in September. As a result, maize harvests normally brought in between October and November will be delayed until December, but should be average.

Biomass production in this area was limited to 200 to 400 kilograms of dry matter per hectare. This limited pasture availability has triggered reports of unusually large concentrations of animals in lake bed areas where there are adequate

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014 green pastures for grazing livestock. However, the receding floodwaters are creating favorable conditions for the growing of flood-recession maize crops, forcing livestock to leave this crop-producing area in November. As usual, temporary lakes and ponds have begun to dry up and animals are starting to be watered at wells and semi-permanent lakes.

Conditions on livestock markets are marked by a 20 percent decline in camel exports to Libya compared with the same time last year due to security issues. There is little demand for exports of cattle and small animals to Nigeria (principal destination markets for animals from this area) with the restrictions on trade imposed by the Boko Haram conflict. Livestock prices are up from the same time last year due to the good physical condition of livestock and the high demand from exporters, particularly for young animals for animal-fattening ventures. Prices are 14 percent above-average but, with the high price of cereal, terms of trade for male goats/millet are 10 percent below-average.

Supplies of millet and sorghum on cereal markets consist of commercial imports from Nigeria, which are down sharply compared with their normal volume and costly due to the security problems disrupting the flow of trade along traditional trade routes in Nigeria. Prices are high compared with the same time last year and the five-year average due to the interplay of supply and an above-average demand, fueled by the presence of transhumant pastoralists and pastoralists from Nigeria due to the conflict in that country. September prices for millet and sorghum were above-average by 22 percent and nine percent, respectively.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario in this area for the period from October 2013 through March 2014 is based on the following assumptions:  There will be a sharp decline in pasture production and an earlier than usual sizeable reduction in pasture availability in January/February with the influx of Nigerian livestock herds.  There will be no seasonal migration by transhumant herds through Chad to Nigeria and Cameroon between January and July/August due to the conflict in northeastern Nigeria.  The deterioration in the physical condition of livestock in February/March will reduce prices and erode terms of trade for livestock/cereal.  The planting of crops in the Lake Chad Valley area will be delayed and maize harvests, which are expected to be average, will be delayed even longer.  The flow of cereal and livestock trade along traditional trade routes will be disrupted, driving up prices between January and March, particularly cereal prices.  There will be continuing civil security problems in Nigeria, creating an influx of refugees into the area and restricting out-migration to Nigeria during the normal seasonal labor migration period beginning in January. There will be a decline in migrant remittances in January.  Low demand will reduce income from the tending of livestock between January and March.  There will be average levels of income from farm labor in pepper-growing operations and sales of wood, charcoal, and straw between October and next March.

Most likely food security outcomes Very poor and poor households will be able to meet their food needs and cover nonfood expenses with a combination of proceeds from sales of livestock, wood, and charcoal, the tending of livestock herds, and borrowing and, thus, will experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) between October and December. Between January and March, this group of households will have fewer head of livestock and, pressed by their cereal consumption needs, will be forced to sell their animals at below-average prices. They will have less income from cash remittances and the tending of livestock and, with the pasture deficit in this area, in addition to feeding themselves, they will also be forced to feed their animals. Above- average cereal prices will erode household purchasing power. With their livelihood protection deficits, their limited means will allow them to purchase just enough cereal (millet) and milk to cover their basic consumption needs, causing them to endure Stressed acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2) between January and March.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014

EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1. Possible events in the next six months liable to change the outlook Area Event Impact on food security conditions Especially strong pressure from traders and the government for Limited flow of trade from surplus to deficit areas, particularly the rebuilding of record-level between June and August, driving prices higher than anticipated food stocks Unexpectedly high cereal prices Projected livelihood protection deficits or small survival deficits in in September, October, certain areas November, and December  Limited on-farm employment opportunities between January and Nationwide Planting of smaller areas in March irrigated crops  Fewer food supplies from irrigated crops  Lower incomes  Larger than expected numbers of refugees Increased insecurity in Nigeria,  Higher cereal demand, larger supply of labor, and higher prices accelerating the rate of than initially expected population displacement  Poorer than expected purchasing power, with livelihood protection deficits Larger than expected cereal demand OR Limited imports of crops and higher than expected cereal prices Agropastoral limited flow of imported crops areas of Ouallam New outbreak of civil insecurity  Population displacement in Mali  Larger consumer demand Increasing measures designed to  Suspension of trade Pastoral areas close the country’s border with  Surge in prices of Nguigmi Nigeria Flooding of pepper crops Losses of income

About scenario development To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of basic assumptions with respect to possible events, their effects, and likely responses by different stakeholders. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios predicting food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario.

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