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NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 Through March 2014

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NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 Through March 2014 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014 Auspicious cropping season conditions through August deteriorate in September Figure 1. Current food security outcomes for KEY MESSAGES October 2013 In general, according to preliminary harvest assessments, net nationwide cereal production is insufficient to meet human consumption needs. Such assessments show production deficits in all parts of the country with the exception of the Dosso and Maradi regions. The largest such deficits are in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions, with small pockets in the Tahoua and Zinder regions. Household food access and livelihoods for October are fair to good. The Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase1) experienced by households in all livelihood zones in October could last through December and on through March of next year, except in certain localized areas where food security outcomes will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between January and Source: FEWS NET This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity outcomes March. for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. The sharp erosion in the food access and incomes of very poor and poor households will produce Stressed food security outcomes (IPC Phase 2) in certain areas between January and March of next year, particularly in the Tillabéri and Diffa regions and certain localized areas of the Tahoua and Zinder regions due to their production shortfalls and poor market access. TYPICAL SEASONAL CALENDAR Récolte riz de Déscente Remontée contre saison des des Soudure animaux au animaux Soudure sud Saison sèche Saison pluvieuse au nord Pluies Récolte principale de céréales, Récolte de décrue, de contre Sarclage, binage riz hivernal saison Préparation des sols Sarclage août sept. oct. nov. déc. janv. févr. mars avr. mai juin Ventes subventionnés Reconstitution des stocks institutionnels, juil. de céréales gouvernementaux juil. Exode (migration pour travail) Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government. NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014 Figure 2. Most likely estimated food security NATIONWIDE OVERVIEW outcomes for October through December 2013 Current situation With the end of the lean season, current conditions are marked by a normal sharp improvement in food security as harvests of fresh crops and sales of cash crops and livestock during the Tabaski holiday period strengthen food availability and household income. The agropastoral season was marred by a poor distribution of rainfall. The areas hardest hit by these poor rainfall conditions were the Tillabéri and Diffa regions, where the season got off to a late start and the rains stopped with crops still in the heading/flowering stages. There are reports of similar conditions in a number of small pockets in the Tahoua and Zinder regions. Source: FEWS NET The Tillabéri, Niamey, and Dosso regions are also reporting other serious effects from the diluvial rains in August, which caused Figure 3. Most likely estimated food security flooding and losses of rainfed and irrigated rice crops. outcomes for January through March 2014 The preliminary harvest assessment conducted in October by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics puts net nationwide production for this past growing season at 3,699,082 metric tons of millet, sorghum, maize, fonio, rice, and wheat. Together, millet and sorghum production, at 3,679,001 metric tons, account for over 99 percent of this figure, which is more or less average, though lower than last year, but up from 2011. Set against the consumption needs of the country’s 17,394,887 inhabitants, this production figure translates into an estimated 319,000 MT deficit, mainly of rice and wheat but also of locally grown cereals, heavily concentrated in the Niamey, Dosso, and Tillabéri regions in the case of rice and in the Tillabéri, Diffa, Tahoua, and Zinder regions in the case of millet and sorghum. Source: FEWS NET These maps show relevant acute food insecurity outcomes for Rough estimates by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics put cash emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily reflect chronic crop production at two million metric tons, compared with the food insecurity. average of 1.7 million MT and last year’s figure of 1.6 million MT, including cowpeas, groundnuts, sesame, chufa nuts, and peas. This increase in production could be attributable to the better rainfall conditions for cash crops, the larger cropped area, and the quality of the seeds furnished by the government and its partners. Local sales of cowpeas and groundnuts are generating average amounts of income, though the income levels of farmers are down from previous months. While the rainy season got off to a later than usual start in July, there were no ensuing periods of drought affecting pasture production. The heavy August rains helped produce lush pastures. According to the findings by assessment missions conducted by the Pastoral Development Agency for the last pastoral season, in general, there is an average supply of pasture, with disparities between different regions and areas. There are good levels of biomass production in farming and agropastoral areas, grazing enclaves, and forest areas, with high-density pastures of 900 to 1000 kilograms of herbaceous cover per hectare. Some pastoral areas of Dakoro, Tanout, and Gouré are showing average levels of pasture production, with pasture density ranging from 500 to 700 kilograms of dry matter per hectare. Pasture production in pastoral areas of Nguigmi, Mainé Soroa, Diffa, Ouallam, Filingué, Tchitabaraden, Abalack, and Tchirozérine is poor, where average pasture density ranges from 200 to 400 kg of dry matter per hectare, at most. Any herd movements in pastoral areas are internal, in search of pasture, though there have been sightings of large concentrations of livestock, particularly in heavy pasture areas. In farming areas, there have been sightings of herd movements and large concentrations of livestock in grazing enclaves, forest areas, grassland areas of the Niger River Valley, Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Outlook October 2013 through March 2014 and other large range areas. The main seasonal migration period for transhumant herds has not yet gotten underway. With the satisfaction of their pasture needs, animals are in good physical condition. The last food assistance programs under the 2012/13 assistance plan for the past consumption year began with the third round of subsidized sales of 12,000 metric tons of cereal at 13,000 CFAF per 100 kg sack in all areas of the country. The government has crafted a preliminary assistance plan for the period from October through December as part of the planning process for the delivery of food assistance for the 2013/14 year. The goal is the delivery of emergency and resilience-building assistance to 1.2 million recipients, compared with an average of 1.5 to 2 million recipients. A final assistance plan will be drawn up in January/February of next year covering the period from January to April/May and from June to September based on the findings by different joint food insecurity and vulnerability assessments. Market supplies consist mainly of millet and cowpeas. Cowpea supplies consist of crops sold by farmers, while millet supplies consist of typical carry-over stocks from last year and fresh crops gradually making their way to market, though in somewhat smaller than average quantities. There is an above-average flow of cereal trade from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Benin to markets in Niger for this time of year, which accounts for most market cereal supplies. With harvests ongoing, cereal demand for October (for millet and sorghum) was down from previous months and in line with seasonal norms. Pastoral households and traders are responsible for most market purchases of cereal. Procurements for the rebuilding of institutional cereal stocks have not yet started up. Prices for all types of cereal have started to come down in line with normal seasonal trends and, for the most part, are on par with figures for last year. However, they are still above the five-year average, in some cases by as much as 30 to 50 percent, though prices on markets in the western part of the country are on par with the average. The high levels of cereal prices could be attributable to the fact that most market supplies for September/October consisted of high-priced, older inventories and imports from neighboring countries. The highest prices (30 to 50 percent above-average) are on the Maradi, Zinder, Diffa, Tahoua, and Agadez markets affected by the sharp reduction in the volume of imports from Nigeria due to the continuing politico-religious conflict in that country, which is restricting trade flows. Conditions on livestock markets in October were marked by good supplies and high demand for the celebration of Tabaski. Livestock prices are at their peak in October, especially prices for small animals, sheep in particular, which were up from the previous month by 33 percent and 29 percent above the five-year average. September prices for average male goats across the country were up by seven percent from August and 14 percent above the five-year average. However, with the high price of cereal, terms of trade for livestock versus cereal are below-average, though a male goat was still trading for the equivalent of over 100 kg of millet in September and expected to continue to bring in more than 100 kg of millet in October with the heightened demand for livestock for the religious holidays. Household livelihood conditions are marked by normal access to wage income from work in the harvest and income from sales of cash crops (cowpeas), small animals, straw, and wood.
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