World Bank Research Program 2005-2007

The World Bank Research Abstracts

Program of

Current

Studies

2005-2007 The World Bank Research Program 2005-2007

Abstracts of Current Studies © 2007 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected]

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ISBN: 978-0-8213-7405-4 eISBN: 978-0-8213-7406-1 DOI: 10.1596/ 978-0-8213-7405-4 Contents

Introduction 1

Studies by Subject Area 7

Abstracts of Current Studies 15

Agriculture and Rural Development 17 Environment and Natural Resources Management 26 Finance and Banking 40 Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sector Management 52 Health, Population, and Nutrition 68 Human Capital Development; Labor and Employment 81 Infrastructure and Urban Development 96 International Migration and Development 107 International Trade and Investment 112 Macroeconomics and Growth; Investment Climate 142 Poverty and Inequality 152 Private Sector Development 165 Social Development; Gender, Social Policies 172 Social Protection and Risk Management 178

List of Publications 184

A. Books 184 B. Chapters in Books 189 C. Articles Published in the World Bank Economic Review and World Bank Research Observer 194 D. Journal Articles 197 E. World Bank Policy Research Working Papers 228 F. World Bank “Flagship” Reports, Policy Research Reports and Other Publications (Special Regional and Sector Series and Monographs) 259 G. World Development Report: Background Papers and Background Notes 267 H. Discussion Paper Series, Occasional Paper Series, Technical Series, Regional and Network Working Papers, Conference Papers and Draft Papers 271

III Defi nition of World Bank Research

Research at the Bank encompasses analytic work designed to produce results with wide applicability across countries or sectors. Bank research, in contrast to academic research, is directed toward recognized and emerging policy issues and is focused on yielding better policy advice. Although motivated by policy problems, Bank research addresses longer-term concerns rather than the immediate needs of a particular Bank lending operation or of a particular country or sector report. Activities classifi ed as research at the Bank do not, therefore, include the economic and sector work and policy analysis carried out by Bank staff to support operations in particular countries. Economic and sector work and policy studies take the product of research and adapt it to specifi c projects or country settings, whereas Bank research contributes to the intellectual foundations of future lending operations and policy advice. Both activities—research and economic and sector work—are critical to the design of successful projects and effective policy. Introduction

The World Bank Research Program. Abstracts of Current Stud- sar Lindbeck. Partial evaluations of the Bank’s Development ies is a compendium of research projects initiated, ongoing, Economics Vice Presidency’s research have also been carried or completed in fi scal years 2005 through 2007 (from July 1, out, the last one dating from 1998. 2004 through June 30, 2007).1 Each abstract summarizes the The evaluation concluded that Bank research was of lead- research questions, analytical methods used, and fi ndings ing quality, that “Bank researchers have delivered value to and policy implications, and describes the research team and the institution that is much larger than could be reasonably publications produced. The volume also includes a complete expected from the very small share of the budget that they list of research outputs produced by World Bank staff during command,” and that they have done so in a period when new this period. hiring has been severely limited and the salaries of Bank This research program generates knowledge that is an es- economists have fallen rapidly relative to those in academia. sential intellectual foundation of the World Bank’s corporate The panel and evaluators found some outstanding work strategies, lending, and policy advice. The research program in the Bank’s portfolio, especially publications on the mea- is designed to increase understanding of the economic and surement of poverty and inequality, pioneering work on the social issues critical to the success of Bank operations, to in- delivery of educational and health services, and work on en- form policy dialogue, and to infl uence development think- vironmental monitoring. Bank researchers have also done ing more generally. The World Bank has been a leader in de- signifi cant work on globalization, aid effectiveness, and eco- velopment economics research and has also been the single nomic growth. According to the panel, the Bank has main- most important source of data on economic development. tained its position as the intellectual leader among develop- The Bank’s research program produces outputs—pub- ment agencies thanks to innovative and valuable research. lications, data, and analytical tools—that are widely used The evaluators considered 61 percent of the studies assessed in economic and sector work, policy dialogue, technical as- to be above average quality and 28 percent as average. The sistance, and academic research. A wide range of research evaluators also found that a small fraction of Bank research outputs serve the Bank’s diverse audiences and purposes. was “undistinguished,” in the sense that it had neither great This includes books and book chapters, scholarly articles, policy relevance nor claim to academic distinction. They also working papers, and policy research and fl agship reports on criticized the fact that certain techniques (in particular cross- important topics. country regressions) have been over used. The Bank is also a world leader in the collection of new Quality and Relevance of Bank Research survey data on development, including the long-established Living Standards Measurement Surveys as well as the more The quality and relevance of Bank research was recently recent Business Environment and Economic Performance evaluated by an independent panel of experts appointed by surveys, and the Investment Climate and Doing Business the Bank’s Chief Economist.2 The panel, in turn, selected 23 surveys. The Development Economics Vice Presidency’s thematic evaluators who are world-class researchers in their data group collates the World Development Indicators, fi eld, and asked them to review a random sample of 186 re- which is the most important single database for development search projects. The panel was asked to what extent World research. The data group has recently taken the leadership Bank research has achieved two objectives: generating new of the International Comparison Project, which is central for knowledge on development and contributing to a broader the measurement of economic growth and poverty (and has understanding of development policy. Only two similar ex- recently published new purchasing power parity estimates). ercises have taken place in the history of the World Bank, in 1978, chaired by Sir Arthur Lewis, and in 1983, chaired by As- Thematic Research

1. This volume covers only projects designated as “research activity” coded RF in the The World Bank’s research program is guided by themes and World Bank’s SAP accounting system. It does not cover economic and sector work or technical assistance activities. topics that are crucial for economic development. Large mul- 2. The panel was chaired by Angus Deaton (Princeton University) and included Ab- tiyear research programs analyze issues to provide strategic hijit Banerjee (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Nora Lustig (United Nations Development Programme), and Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard University, former Chief direction on critical problems facing Bank operations as well Economist at the IMF). The complete report is available at http://econ.worldbank.org. 1 as its clients. Each program centers on a theme giving coher- Environment and Natural Resource Management ence to research and its outputs. Of the 264 research projects The research program on environment and natural resource reported in this publication, 18 percent were on international management covers a wide range of topics including climate economics; 10 percent were on environment and natural re- change, agricultural and industrial pollution, and the man- source management; and 9 percent were on issues related to agement of natural resources. Climate change research, for political economy, governance, public sector management, example, covers issues dealing with various aspects of global and public service delivery; (Table 1). Other important warming, including the role of carbon sequestration in long- themes include poverty and inequality, public health, human term climate mitigation policies, prospects of the carbon mar- capital development, infrastructure, agriculture and rural de- ket until 2012, management of the prototype carbon fund, velopment, migration, and macroeconomics and growth. and adaptation in agriculture. Various studies have been undertaken to better understand the impact of climate change Table 1—Research Topics and Number of Abstracts, and develop appropriate policies to mitigate its impact in FY05-FY07 developing nations. The research program on pollution encompasses issues related to indoor pollution, health hazards Research topics Number of Percent of agricultural pesticides, pollution related to transport and abstracts industrial activities, and related regulatory policies. These 1 Agriculture and Rural Development 14 5 studies are carried out at the household and fi rm levels as Environment and Natural Resource 25 10 2 well as at the national and global levels. Studies have also Management focused on the effi cient management of critical natural re- 3 Finance and Banking 15 6 sources including water and forests and the preservation of 4 Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sec- 25 9 tor Management biodiversity in fragile ecosystems. 5 Health, Population, and Nutrition 24 9 Number of projects reported: 25 6 Human Development, Labor, and Employment 22 8 7 Infrastructure and Urban Development 20 8 Finance and Banking 8 International Migration and Development 9 3 The research program on fi nance focuses on understanding 9 International Trade and Investment 47 18 how an effective fi nancial system contributes to economic de- 10 Macroeconomics and Growth; Investment 16 6 velopment and poverty reduction, and on identifying which Climate policies work best to improve the effectiveness, stability, and 11 Poverty and Inequality 17 6 reach of the fi nancial system in developing countries. Until 12 Private Sector Development 14 5 recently, the program focused on critical policy questions re- 13 Social Development; Gender and Social 93lating to the regulation and supervision of the fi nancial sector Policies in a changing environment characterized by privatization and 14 Confl ict, Post-Confl ict, and Natural Disasters 7 3 globalization. New research emphasizes growth-promoting Total 264 100 fi nancial policies such as access to fi nance, a crucial part of the investment climate facing fi rms and households. A few Agriculture and Rural Development studies have also examined the role of microfi nance in im- Reducing global poverty requires a thorough understanding proving the livelihoods of poor people. Another area of focus of the factors and institutions that generate and perpetuate has been on how to ensure the sustained effectiveness of fi - rural poverty, and an assessment of policies and interven- nancial systems and fi nancial stability over the long run. Vari- tions designed to improve the livelihoods of people living in ous studies analyzed the determinants and resolution poli- rural areas. The World Bank agriculture and rural develop- cies of fi nancial crises, in particular strategies and policies for ment research program focuses on policies and investments the early detection and resolution of crises with limited cost undertaken by governments and supported by development to government and little overall economic repercussions. agencies. The research program covers a broad set of issues, Number of projects reported: 15 including land policies, community driven development, irrigation water management, agricultural technology diffusion, Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sector Management rural fi nance, rural infrastructure, and trade policies. The World Bank research program contributes to the grow- Number of projects reported: 14 ing empirical literature on the causes and consequences of institutions for economic development. A key question this

2 program addresses is why some countries are rich and oth- and human development outcomes. These projects seek to ers are poor. Good institutions of public decision-making and measure the performance of education service delivery and competent governments enable societies to choose growth- identify its determinants. enhancing policies and sound development strategies. Insti- Number of projects reported: 22 tutions that protect property rights and ensure that contracts are enforced are central to developing a strong investment Infrastructure and Urban Development climate in which individuals and fi rms can interact to their This program addresses the role of infrastructure in urban mutual benefi ts. The studies on these issues provide a ba- and regional development—both to increase poor people’s sis to strengthen public institutions and their effectiveness. access to crucial services and to provide an environment con- The research in this area examines the theory and evidence ducive to sustainable economic growth. One area of research on the role of institutions, information, credibility of political examines how national and regional infrastructure invest- promises, and social polarization in shaping political incen- ments can complement natural advantage and other agglom- tives to serve the poor. eration economies in promoting economic growth. Another Number of projects reported: 25 focus area investigates options for infrastructure reforms— restructuring, privatizing, and establishing new approaches to Health, Population, and Nutrition regulation. This includes assessment of the outcomes of in- The research program examines health and nutrition out- frastructure reform and its distributional consequences, espe- comes and how these relate broadly to poverty reduction cially for poor households and other disadvantaged groups. and development. It also examines issues related to health The urban development research program deals with prob- and nutrition services in developing countries. This topic lems related to rapid urban growth in developing countries involves understanding the complex motivations, multiple and with the potential contributions of dynamically growing tasks, and various stakeholders that drive different delivery cities to economic growth. This latter research focuses on ac- systems. Various studies combine new types of data collected cess to public services, housing market dynamics and their through clinic surveys with data from household surveys in link to employment opportunities, and ways to improve the order to explore key relationships of accountability in deliv- fi scal sustainability of urban service provision. At the regional ery systems, explain performance and outcomes, and evalu- level, the research program focuses on the role of cities in ate interventions for impact. providing a dynamic environment for private sector growth Number of projects reported: 24 and on the effectiveness of policies to promote development in lagging regions, such as infrastructure investments and Human Development, Labor, and Employment secondary city strategies. These activities are closely linked Human development and the delivery of basic services are to the “new economic geography” and typically utilize geo- at the core of the Bank’s strategy of investing in people. Re- referenced data and spatial analytic techniques. search in these areas has focused on deepening understand- Number of projects reported: 20 ing of the factors affecting human development in developing countries, improving the analysis of service delivery International Migration and Development and related political and economic institutions, and examin- This new research program seeks to fi ll the gaps in existing ing the effectiveness of aid in developing countries. Using knowledge about migration, particularly with regard to glo- household survey data, research documents patterns of hu- balization of labor markets and remittances. The migration man development across a wide range of countries and popu- of workers across international borders in search of economic lation groups. Efforts have focused on developing measures opportunity has enormous implications for growth and wel- of diffi cult-to-quantify dimensions of human development fare in both origin and destination countries. The research such as learning, good health, and vulnerability. Survey data on global migration includes extensive data-gathering and are used to examine a variety of factors that explain demand analysis the development impact of migration, so as to iden- for services, dimensions of service quality, outcomes, and the tify migration policies, regulations, and institutional reforms sources of vulnerability for different people. The research by developed and developing countries. With the recent program also includes extensive analysis of education, em- increase in remittance fl ows to developing countries, and ployment, and various aspects of labor market informality. with the expectation that the workforce in OECD countries The research on education, for example, focuses on the effi - would shrink in the decades beyond 2010, there has been cient use of public resources to produce educational services heightened interest in migration among policymakers in de-

3 veloping and developed countries as well as in bilateral, mul- Poverty and Inequality tilateral, and research institutions. The main goal of this research program is to better under- Number of projects reported: 9 stand the economic and social processes determining the extent of poverty and inequality, and to assess the effective- International Trade and Investment ness of specifi c policies in reducing poverty. The program This research program attempts to better understand the im- also examines the transmission of poverty across generations, pact of globalization of production and consumption of goods and the role of cultural factors and/or empowerment in im- and services on economic development, as well as to assess proving the effectiveness of poverty mitigation programs. A and create policies to enhance the gains from trade and mar- major theme of many projects has been pro-poor growth, that ket integration. The research program contains several reis, the extent to which growth processes in different coun- lated strands of work, including analysis of the relationship tries have a differential impact on poverty. Several projects between trade, trade policy reforms, and poverty reduction; have developed methods to assess the effectiveness of spe- the determinants, magnitude, and effects of international cifi c poverty-reduction policies and generated large amounts behind-the-border trade costs; the productivity effects of of time-series, household-level data on poverty that are trade and foreign direct investment; and the dimensions of used to monitor trends in poverty and inequality (this in- services liberalization on effi ciency. The research program cludes the Bank’s offi cial global poverty counts) and develop encompasses efforts to develop global databases on anti- poverty maps. dumping, trade and production, technical barriers to trade, The aid effectiveness research investigates the conditions dispute settlement cases in the World Trade Organization, as under which aid is most likely to achieve development ob- well as a trade restrictiveness index. jectives, including the complex mix of policies, institutions, Number of projects reported: 47 and absorptive capacity of recipients; the quality of donors’ design and delivery of aid programs; the fungibility of aid Macroeconomics and Growth; Investment Climate across sectors and across donors; and the sustainability of po- The research program on macroeconomics, growth, and in- litical support for increased aid in donor countries. vestment aims to identify and improve policies and reform Number of projects reported: 17 strategies that are conducive to sustained growth. In addition, the research aims to understand the factors behind the diver- Private Sector Development sity in aggregate economic performance across countries, as The private sector development research program looks at in- well as their responses to policy and institutional changes. novation, job creation, technology adoption, and productivity The projects explore the role of complementarity among re- improvements. The research program focuses on understand- forms and country-specifi c initial conditions and institutional ing the determinants of fi rm entry, exit, and performance, features in shaping the effectiveness of policies. They also and their consequences for economy-wide productivity and assess the consequences of microeconomic distortions and growth. Central to this research are the interacting themes of constraints for aggregate performance, expanding on previ- entrepreneurship and fi rm dynamics. A better understanding ous work on the fi rm-level effects of regulation, infrastructure of the determinants of entrepreneurship and of how changes services, property rights, and the availability of fi nance. The in the composition of the private sector over time affect fi rm research emphasizes the links between growth and poverty productivity and growth is essential for understanding the alleviation, with attention to the potentially long-lived im- microeconomics of growth. The research program also in- pacts of inequality and poverty traps as deterrents for growth cludes analyzing the impact of small and medium enterprises and welfare. Another area of research is concerned with the on growth and poverty alleviation and the determinants and consequences of international fi nancial integration for ag- consequences of informality. gregate stability and growth. Finally, the investment climate Number of projects reported: 14 research focuses on the microeconomics of growth—how different policies and government behaviors can foster growth, Social Development; Gender and Social Policies productivity, investment, and employment. The research in- Social inequality can hinder economic development in a vari- volves a detailed analysis of institutional arrangements and ety of ways. The research program uses several approaches to indicators of the investment climate, as well as information better understand disparities in access to public services, fi - on fi rm activities. nance, human development outcomes, and decision-making Number of projects reported: 16 at the household level. A series of studies conducted in India,

4 for example, show an inherent caste-based division in society Table 2--World Bank Research Output, FY05-FY07 and the need for recognition of such disparities in health and education policies. Other studies have shown that gender Number of Percent equality is important in overcoming extreme poverty. Research output publications Number of projects reported: 9 Books by Bank researchers 161 6 Book chapters by Bank researchers 123 4 Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Natural Disasters Scholarly articles published in The World Bank 111 4 Confl icts and natural disasters are among the most destructive Economic Review and the World Bank Research Observer phenomena impeding economic growth and often reversing Scholarly articles published in professional journals 883 32 its course. Studies show that these events are often followed (excluding The World Bank Economic Review and by disease, social fractionalization, environmental damage, The World Bank Research Observer) and collapse of institutions. The World Bank has been in- Policy Research Working Papers 962 35 volved in research on the economic causes and consequences Bank series publications including fl agship publica- 243 9 tions, policy research reports, regional and sectoral of confl icts and natural disasters for nearly a decade. This re- series, and other special series search program explores the intersection of political, security, Background papers to World Development Reports – 112 4 and economic dimensions after a confl ict or disaster. There 2006, 2007, and 2008 has also been research on governance dimensions, includ- Discussion paper series, occasional paper series, mimeos, technical series, regional and network work- 145 5 ing on the institutional and economic factors that determine ing papers, and conference papers whether strife reemerges or peace is sustained after a civil Total publications 2,740 100 confl ict. The studies have identifi ed policy prescriptions that foster economic growth, promote sustainable democratiza- knowledge in social sciences and are widely used around the tion, and encourage institutional reform during post-confl ict world by academics, policy experts, and development prac- or post-disaster recovery situations. titioners. The World Bank publishes two peer-reviewed re- Number of projects reported: 7 search journals, The World Bank Research Observer, intended for people with a professional interest in development, World Bank Research Outputs and The World Bank Economic Review, which specializes in empirical analysis of development policy. The World Bank produces a number of research reports and publications aimed at a diverse client base including opera- Policy Research Working Papers tional staff, developing country policymakers, the develop- The Policy Research Working Papers series is intended to ment community, and academics. Major research products encourage the exchange of ideas on development issues and include books published by the World Bank’s internal pub- to quickly disseminate their fi ndings. More than 300 working lications department and by external publishers, scholarly papers are published each year with some 4,500 published articles published in peer-reviewed journals, working papers, since the inception of the series in 1988. According to the So- policy research reports, and so-called “fl agship” reports. Dur- cial Science Research Network (http://www.ssrn.com), these ing the three-year FY05–07 period, Bank staff and consul- papers are among the most widely downloaded economics tants produced 2,740 publications, including 161 books, 994 papers and probably the most widely used research output scholarly articles in peer-reviewed journals, and 962 Policy from the World Bank by academics around the world. Research Working Papers (see Table 2). Policy Research Reports Scholarly Articles Policy Research Reports bring to a broad audience the re- Research publications in scholarly journals not only refl ect sults of research on development policy issues carried out by the quality of research outputs, but also contribute toward World Bank staff. The reports summarize ongoing research enhancing the credibility of the Bank’s research program. on a specifi c theme or area and identify what is unknown The program enables the Bank’s researchers and the research in order to provoke debate in both the academic and de- department to maintain state-of-the-art knowledge of issues velopment communities on appropriate public policy ob- relevant to the Bank and the development community. In jectives and instruments for developing economies. Policy FY05–07, Bank staff produced nearly 1,000 scholarly articles in Research Reports are also aimed at generating further de- the peer-reviewed journals that are the primary source of new bate concerning methodology and policy conclusions. Re-

5 cent Policy Research Reports have covered tropical forestry, is designed to simplify and speed-up poverty assessments. infrastructure in developing countries, and land policies. A By producing a standard set of tables and graphs, the pro- new Policy Research Report on conditional cash transfers gram provides comparable poverty statistics across countries, is under preparation. opening new possibilities for research on inter-country poverty comparisons. Special Flagship Reports The World Bank publishes special reports that cover a par- How to Obtain More Information ticular region or topic. Many are published by researchers in the Bank’s regions and networks. The Bank’s main fl agship This volume is a compendium published annually. More publication is the World Development Report, published an- timely information on World Bank research and its fi ndings nually, which is an invaluable guide to the economic, social, is available in the monthly World Bank Research E-Newslet- and environmental state of the world. Each World Develop- ter, and in the quarterly World Bank Research Digest, which ment Report provides an in-depth analysis of a specifi c aspect reach subscribers by email. Subscription links to these news- of development. Past reports have considered such topics as letters, as well as links to archived Research newsletters and agriculture, equity, environment, labor, infrastructure, health, Digest, can be found at http://newsletters.worldbank.org. poverty, transition economies, and the role of the state. Up- The Abstracts of Current Studies, Policy Research Working coming World Development Reports will consider regional Papers, research reports, and development data are available development policies (2009) and climate change (2010). at http://econ.worldbank.org.

Data and Analytical Tools Understanding the determinants of development and policy effects requires comparable and reliable data. In development economics, such data are often scarce and their generation costly. The World Bank is the single most important producer and collator of data about economic development. Bank data support a vast amount of research both inside the Bank and outside, by researchers, policy analysts, and governments around the world. The most prominent published dataset is World Development Indicators, a publication aggregating economic, environmental, and social data on more than 150 countries. Living Standards Measurement Surveys are household surveys that have become an important tool in measuring and understanding poverty in developing countries. Other data products the World Bank distributes cover international comparison of income, governance, fi - nance, environment, health and human development, and investment climate. Bank researchers also devise new methodologies and tools used by other researchers and policymakers to analyze development policy problems. The methodology and tools are used in the Bank’s country analytical work and by client countries. Macroeconomic modeling, for example, is used to assess the impact of policy changes and external shocks on the economy. Models are also developed to analyze the implications for trade, growth, and income distribution of accelerated aid programs to better meet the Millennium Development Goals. Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys have similarly evolved from a research tool into a widely used operational tool. The most recently developed Stata software (known as ADePT)

6 Studies by Subject Area

Agriculture and Rural Development 17

Non-market and Market-Based Land Allocation in Vietnam 17 Land Consolidation 18 Inequality and Investment: Land Tenure and Soil Degradation in the Indus Basin 18 The Benefi ts and Costs of Organic Agriculture: Evidence from Cuba 19 Assembling and Disseminating Pesticide Use Data from Developing Countries 19 Spatial Patterns of Poverty, Development, and Environment 20 Farm Productivity and Market Structure: Evidence from Cotton Reforms in Zambia 21 Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in East Asia 21 Distortions to Farm Incentives 21 Extension and Documentation of the Tariff Rate Quota Databank with Analysis of Tariff Structures 22 Macro-Micro Linkages of Irrigated Water Management 23 Capacity Building Activity to Train Users of a Methodology Developed in the Study: “Macro-Micro Feedback Links of Irrigation Water Management” 23 Impact of Credit on Agriculture 24 Impact of Weather Insurance in Malawi 24

Environment and Natural Resources Management 26

Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development: Risks, Benefi ts, and Institutional Implications 26 Climate Change and Rural Development in South America 26 Institutions for Climate Change Adaptation 27 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise 27 Environmental Indicators 28 Markets for Environmental Resources 28 Economic Instruments for Habitat Conservation 29 The Functional Value of Biodiversity 30 An Economic Assessment of Agricultural Expansion and Deforestation in Tropics 31 Environmental Performance Rating and Disclosure in Ghana 32 Public Disclosure of Industrial Pollution in China 32 Foreign Direct Investment and Pollution Havens 33 Urban Pollution: Measurement and Cost 33 Strengthening Public Pressure for Environmental and Water Resource Protection in Indonesia 34 Methods for Allocating Water among Competing Uses under Stochastic Supply Conditions 34 Cooperative Arrangements for Water Allocation under Competition among Water Use Sectors 35 Bangladesh Toxic Targeting: Identifi cation of “Hot Spots” for the Agriculture, Health, and Environmental Agencies of Bangladesh 35 Evaluation of the Integrated Pest Management: Environmental and Social Safeguard Directive - East Asia (Vietnam) 36 Impact of Indoor Air Pollution on Children’s Health 36 The Economics of Pesticide Contamination in Bangladesh 37 Improving Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: Proposal for a Controlled Experiment in Bangladesh 37

7 The State of the Global Carbon Market 37 Understanding and Improving the Environmental Performance of Township- Village Industrial Enterprises in China 38 Understanding and Improving Environmental Governance in Developing Countries 39 Capital Markets and Environmental Performance: Evidence from South Korea 39

Finance and Banking 40

Finance Research Program FY 2005-2007 40 Financial Sector Policy and the Poor 42 Financial Market Stability 42 Does Regulation Lead to Informal Credit? 43 Individual and Group Default Incentives in Microfi nance 43 Testing the Effectiveness of Group vs. Individual Liability 43 Remittances and Financial Development 44 Barriers to Banking 44 Bank Privatization in Developing Countries 45 How Banks Go Abroad: Branches or Subsidiaries? 46 Foreign Banking 47 Globalization and International Capital Flows 47 International Financial Integration of China and India 49 Bank Regulation and Supervision: Where Do We Stand? 50 The Impact of Accessing International Capital Markets on Firms’ Value 50

Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sector Management 52

Making Services Work for the Poor 52 Political Economy of Public Services 52 Limited Access Orders and Integration of Political and Economic Systems 53 The Economics of Secession: Inequality, Globalization, and Self-Determination 54 Implementing Affi rmative Action in the Public Service 54 Human Rights and Basic Services 55 Bargaining for Bribes: The Role of Institutions 55 The Relevance of Information for Service Delivery 55 Information Campaigns to Improve Public Services 56 The Impact of Citizen Report Cards at the Community Level 57 Citizen Report Cards at the Community Level - Impact Evaluation 57 Corruption and Development 58 Information and Voice 59 Local Governance in India 59 Absenteeism of Teachers and Health Workers 60 Governance and Service Delivery 61 Public Expenditure and Service Delivery in Chad 62 Nongovernmental Organizations as Service Providers in Developing Countries 62 Prevention of Corruption in the Selection and Employment of Professional Consultants - Inception Report 63 Development Impact Evaluation Initiative 63 The Impact of Institutions on Development 64 Poverty Dynamics & Service Delivery -Evaluation of Completed Research Projects 65 Evaluation of Community Managed Schools in Nepal 65

8 Public Finance Decentralization in China 66 Participatory Poverty Assessment and Public Service Delivery 66

Health, Population, and Nutrition 68

Research on HIV/AIDS Prevention and Treatment 68 The Economics of AIDS Epidemics 68 The Role of Testing in HIV/AIDS Epidemics 69 Improving the Effectiveness of AIDS Treatment while Strengthening Prevention in Free State Province, South Africa 69 Evaluating the Impact of Antiretroviral Treatment 70 Evaluating the Impact of AIDS Prevention and Treatment Services in Four Countries 70 The Plight of Orphans and Vulnerable Children in Nairobi Urban Slums in the Face of HIV/AIDS 71 Understanding Adult Mortality in Developing Countries 71 Long-term Consequences of Confl ict 71 Determinants of Success in Immunization Programs 72 Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions 72 Community Nutrition and Evaluation of Impacts in Africa 73 Valuing Improvements in Road Safety in Delhi, India 74 Reproductive and Child Health and Human Development 74 Public Health and the Environment 74 Reaching the Poor with Health, Nutrition, and Population Services 75 Health Care Financing and Delivery 76 Social Health Insurance and Tax-Financed Health Care in Europe and Central Asia: Spending and Labor Market Implications 77 The Impact of Health on Household Income Capabilities in Rural China 77 Health Care Providers and Markets in Delhi 78 Contracting with the Private Sector for the Delivery of Health Services: Randomized Evaluation in Cambodia 78 The Demand for Sex Selective Abortions 79 Economic Costs of Mental Health Ailments 79 The Interaction of Health, Education, and Employment in Western China 80

Human Capital Development; Labor and Employment 81

What Drives Mass Education? Economy, Policies, Institutions 81 Growth, Redistribution, and Human Development: A Decomposition Method with Applications to Schooling in Morocco and Vietnam 81 Trends in International Trade in Higher Education Services: Implications and Options for Developing Countries 82 University-Industry Linkages in Metropolitan Areas in Asia 82 Sources of Inequity in Human Development Outcomes 84 Quantitative Service Delivery Surveys to Improve Schooling 84 Impact Evaluation of Social Protection Programs in the Nahouri Province 86 Schooling and Poverty in Laos 86 Evaluating Chile’s Education System 87 An Evaluation of Alternative Food for Education Approaches 87 Improving School in Pakistan 88 Changing Gender Bias in a Fast-Developing Country: A Case Study of Malaysia, 1984–97 89 Evaluating the Impact of HIV/AIDS Prevention Education in Primary Schools: Western Province, Kenya 89 Child Labor and Access to Credit 90

9 Evaluating the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on School Outcomes in Cambodia 91 Benefi ts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Cambodia 91 Evaluating the Impact of the Bono de Desarrollo Humano Cash Transfer Program—Ecuador 92 Globalization and School Attainment 92 Assessing Argentina’s Preparedness for the Knowledge Economy 93 Labor Regulations and Technology in India’s Retail Stores 94 Labor Issues in Service Delivery: Pay, Incentives, and Performance of Service Providers 94 Labor Informality: Estimating the Benefi ts and the Costs in Brazil 94

Infrastructure and Urban Development 96

Infrastructure Reform in Developing Countries 96 The Distributional Effects of Utilities Reforms: A Low-Cost Evaluation Methodology 97 Dynamics of Rural Energy Use in Bangladesh 97 Emergence from Subsistence: Infrastructure, Location, and Development in Nepal 98 Measuring Quantity-Quality Tradeoffs in Regulated Industries 98 Price Structure and Network Externalities in the Telecommunications Industry: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 99 Assessing the Impact of Roads: An Instrumental Variable Approach 99 Competition and Corruption in Public Procurement: Evidence from Infrastructure Projects 100 The Livestock Industry and Infrastructure Development 100 Information Technology and Development 101 The Impact of Rural Roads on Poverty: The Case of Bangladesh 101 Impact Evaluation of a Rural Road Rehabilitation Project in Vietnam 101 Impact Evaluation of Rural Infrastructure Programs 102 Identifi cation and Analysis of Urban Disaster Risk 102 Motorization 103 Urban Transport and the Welfare of the Poor 103 The Impact of Bus Rapid Transit in Accra, Ghana 104 Equity and Effi ciency in Local Government Revenue Generation 104 The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion 105 Dynamics of Urban Poverty – A Case Study of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 105

International Migration and Development 107

International Migration: Implication for Growth and Welfare 107 Regional Integration and Migration with Agglomeration 107 Remittances and Migration 108 Household Surveys on International Migration and Remittances in Ghana 109 Household Surveys of International Migration and Remittances in Pakistan 109 International Migration and Development – The case Study of the Brazil Nikkei Households 110 Medical Brain Drain and Labor Markets 110 Immigration to Switzerland 111 Migration, Poverty, and Income Strategies in Albania 111

International Trade and Investment 112

Global Trade Architecture 112 Political Economy of Trade Policy 113

10 Regional Integration and Development 114 Determinants of Trade Policy in Developing Countries 114 Estimating Trade Elasticities 115 The Impact of Trade Liberalization and International Exposure on Labor and Capital Adjustment Functions in Uruguay 115 Trade Facilitation 116 Trade Policy Data Support/Dissemination 117 Trade and Production II, 1976-2003 118 Trade Costs, Export Competitiveness, and Development Prospects 118 Trade Openness Can Be Good for Growth If Accompanied by Complementary Reforms 119 Beyond Openness: Trade and Behind the Border Policy Reforms 119 Trade Policies in Landlocked Countries 121 Deep Integration and the Adjustment Process in Mexico 122 Agricultural Trade Reforms and Their Impact on Rural Poverty 122 Export Crops, Marketing Costs, and Poverty 123 Poverty Alleviation through Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives 123 Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives 124 Anti-dumping and Safeguard Actions by Developing Countries 124 Safeguards and Antidumping in Latin American Trade Liberalization 125 Economic Analysis of Regional Poverty Issues Using Computable General Equilibrium Modeling 125 Evasion of Import Tariffs 125 Export Diversifi cation in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia and Morocco 126 Latin America and the Caribbean Respond to China and India 126 Measuring Real GDP and Trade Distortions 127 Road Infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia: Does Network Quality Affect Trade? 127 Trade and Capacity Building in Russian Speaking Countries 127 Transnational Production Networks in East Asia and the Pacifi c 128 Services Analysis, Modeling and Capacity-Building 128 Services Trade Policy 129 Standards, Regulatory Reform, and Trade Facilitation 130 World Trade Organization Agricultural Trade Reforms and Their Impact on Poverty: Consumption and Income Effects 131 Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Trade Reform under the Doha Development Agenda 131 Agricultural WTO Trade Reforms and Their Impact on Poverty: Consumption and Income Effects 133 Developing Countries and World Trade Organization Dispute Settlement 134 Doha and Poverty in Low-Income Countries 134 Doha, Trade and Poverty 134 Effects for the Russian Federation of Accession to the World Trade Organization 135 Implementation of Obligations under World Trade Organization Agreements 136 World Trade Organization Accession, Policy Reform, and Poverty Reduction in China 137 Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Reform and Poverty 138 The Role of Investment Promotion Agencies in Attracting Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries 138 Rules of Origin and Heterogeneity of Firms 139 Environmental and Labor Market Regulation and Foreign Direct Investment 139 Foreign Direct Investment and Labor Market Interactions 140 Productivity and Employment Effects of Foreign Acquisitions 140 Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment through Vertical Relationships 140

11 Macroeconomics and Growth; Investment Climate 142

Fiscal Policy and Growth 142 Firm Analysis and Competitiveness Survey Research 142 The Investment Climate and the Micro Underpinnings of Growth 143 Firm Dynamics and Growth 144 Microeconomics of Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union 145 Growth, Innovation, and Reform 146 Knowledge and Economic Development 146 Evaluating Public Policies 146 Macroeconomics and Financial Development 147 Macroeconomic Volatility and Development 148 Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Its Impact in and outside Africa 148 Decentralization and Local Participation 149 Housing and the Macro Economy 150 Quality of Aid 150 Aid and the Millennium Development Goals 150 Debt, Debt Relief, and Growth 151

Poverty and Inequality 152

Equity and Development: A Research Program on Poverty and Inequality 152 Looking Beyond Averages: A Research Program on Poverty and Inequality 154 The Methodology of Poverty Assessments 156 LSMS Phase III 157 LSMS IV: Research for Improving Survey Data 158 Measuring and Understanding the Impacts of Development Projects 158 Long-Run Impacts of Health Shocks in Africa 158 Poverty and Health 159 Macroeconomic Crises and Child Health 160 Urban Poverty and Social Capital 161 World Poverty Monitoring 161 How Does Globalization Affect Middle-Income Strata? Evidence from Household Budget Surveys 161 Community Driven Development 162 Trade, Growth, and Poverty in the Least Developed Countries 162 Poverty Impacts of Egypt’s Social Fund for Development 163 Aid Effectiveness 163 Are There Lasting Impacts of Aid to Poor Areas? Evidence from Rural China 164

Private Sector Development 165

Investment Climate Research Program 165 Entrepreneurship Database 165 World Bank Group Entrepreneurship Database 166 Entry Regulation as a Barrier to Entrepreneurship 166 Competition and Labor Productivity in India’s Retail Sector 167 Estimating the Returns to Capital 167 Agglomeration Economies: The Role of Horizontal and Vertical Linkages 168 Dynamics and Informal Sector and Economic Growth 168

12 The Informal Sector, Business Climate and Economic Growth in the West African Economic and Monetary Union Countries: Case Studies 169 The Informal Sector in the Senegalese Economy: Policies for Productive Regulation 169 Informal Sector Competition in Latin America and the Caribbean 169 Access to Finance and Firm Performance 170 Evaluating the Impact of Mexico’s Small and Medium Enterprise Programs Using Panel Data 170 When Do Creditor Rights Work? 171

Social Development; Gender, Social Policies 172

Legacy of Social Inequality in Expectations, Norms, and Governance 172 Social Status in India and Political Economy in Transition Economies 172 The Economics of Reciprocity Networks 173 Social Customs and Women’s Status in Rural Pakistan 174 Marriage Transitions and HIV/AIDS in Malawi 174 Argentina: Social Security and Elderly Welfare 175 The Macro and Welfare Impacts of Notional Defi ned Contribution Pension Systems in a Partial-Dynamic General Equilibrium Model 175 Effects of Unemployment Insurance 176 Tackling Poverty in the Short and Long Run: An Assessment of the Experience of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs 176

Social Protection and Risk Management 178

Civil War, Crime, and Violence 178 The Economics and Politics of Post-Confl ict Transitions – Follow-up 178 Post-Confl ict Transitions 179 Local Confl icts and Development Projects 180 Crises, Polarization, and Reform 181 STAR: Study of Tsunami Aftermath and Reconstruction 182 Security and Development 182

Abstracts of Current Studies

Agriculture and Rural Development

Non-market and Market-Based Land Allocation in landlessness was poverty increasing in the aggregate, Vietnam although the Mekong Delta was a possible exception. Results have been presented at a World Bank semi- Early research in this project evaluated the equity and nar (April 2001), a conference on Political Economy effi ciency outcomes of the assignment of land use rights and Development at Yale University (2001), a seminar through decollectivization in Vietnam. It then exam- at the National Economics University and Institute of ined whether subsequent reallocations of land during Social Studies in Hanoi (February 2002), the Northeast the 1990s adjusted for ineffi ciencies in the initial ad- Universities Development Consortium Conference at ministrative privatization and whether non-market fac- Williams College (October 2002), the MacArthur Foun- tors helped or hindered. The fi nal stage looked at the dation Conference on Inequality at the Massachusetts recent increase in landlessness and asked whether this Institute of Technology (2003), and a DELTA-INRA refl ects a failure or success of the land market reforms seminar in Paris (October 2003). Presentations have and the emergence of a functioning land market. also been made at Boston University, Michigan State The research found that the initial assignment of University, the University of California at Berkeley, the land use rights achieved a more equitable outcome University of Laval (Quebec, Canada), the University than would be expected from a consumption-effi cient of Massachusetts, the University of Michigan, the Uni- allocation, entailing an equity-effi ciency tradeoff that versity of Melbourne (March 2003), and seminars at the favored the poorest households. It found no evidence of World Bank resident mission in Hanoi (May 2004). The widespread local capture. After decollectivization, land results on landlessness were presented at the Vietnam reallocations responded positively but slowly to the in- Academy of Social Sciences and in the Hanoi MDE effi ciencies of the initial allocation. Non-market forces seminar series (February 2006), and Pannasastra Uni- tended to aid adjustments toward greater effi ciency. versity of Cambodia in Phnom Penh (March 2006). As land transactions proceeded, some households Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- lost their land as a result of bad shocks and became poor; vices Team—Dominique van de Walle (dvandewalle@ others sold their land as they moved up the ladder of worldbank.org), and Poverty Team—Martin Ravallion; non-farm income diversifi cation. With the reforms, did and East Asia and Pacifi c Region, Poverty Reduction lack of land become more or less correlated with pov- and Economic Management Sector Unit—Martín erty in rural Vietnam—and why? To answer this, the Rama. With Hai-Anh Dang, University of Minnesota. study modeled land and consumption separately, using Project Code: P074050. four repeated household survey cross-sections for 1993, Completion date: December 2006. 1998, 2002, and 2004, to see how the determinants of these two variables changed over time. Explanatory Publications variables included ethnicity, education, household de- Ravallion, Martin, and Dominique van de Walle. 2004. mographics, geographic fi xed effects, gender of house- “Breaking Up the Collective Farm: Welfare Outcomes hold head, and employment in the public sector or of Vietnam’s Massive Land Privatization.” Economics state-owned enterprises. The regressions were used to of Transition 12(2): 201–36. study the conditional correlations between landhold- ______. 2006. “Land Reallocation in an Agrarian Transi- ing and welfare. In addition to examining what hap- tion.” The Economic Journal, 116(October): 924-42. pened to the distribution of land, the project looked ______. 2007. “Does Rising Landlessness Signal Success at how land quality, capital and investment gradients, or Failure for Vietnam’s Agrarian Transition?” Policy and the profi le of the landless and of rural employment Research Working Paper 3871. World Bank, Washing- changed over time. Although the research found rising ton, D.C. landlessness among the poor, the post-reform landless- ______. Forthcoming. “Does Rising Landlessness Signal ness rate tended to be higher for the non-poor. The re- Success or Failure for Vietnam’s Agrarian Transition?” sults did not support the claim that the process of rising Journal of Development Economics.

17 Land Consolidation ment on leased plots. Differences in tenure security across tenants were largely the result of differences in landlords’ The objective of this project is to assess the impact of a land willingness to commit to long-term contracts. consolidation program adopted by the government of Viet- These fi ndings suggest that there is scope for effective ten- nam. The question at the center of this research activity is ancy reform in rural Pakistan. Legislation binding landlords the understanding of the land market in Vietnam, and spe- to long-term contracts would encourage tenants to undertake cifi cally the bottlenecks (credit, crop choices, corruption, and certain types of investment. However, the productivity gains others) that prevent it from functioning properly. from such policies were estimated to be quite small. The methodology is innovative. It relies on a randomized The second phase of the study examined productivity dif- intervention in selected communes. There are two sources of ferentials between sharecropped and owner-cultivated land data. First, data come from several waves of household sur- in rural Pakistan. Although no evidence of an overall pro- veys undertaken in Vietnam (2004, 2006, and 2008). Second, ductivity differential was found, among sharecroppers, those the analysis matches these data with data on land consoli- who were more heavily supervised by their landlords were dation intervention. The intervention took place in 2006, so signifi cantly more productive than those who were less su- that 2004 and 2006 can be used as baselines, and ex-post in- pervised. This suggests that the main static effi ciency cost of formation will be collected in 2008. land inequality in Pakistan was not lower productivity per se, The impact will be twofold. First, the fi ndings will show but the resource cost of landlord supervision. Further data the reduced-form effects of the interventions on the imple- collection has been undertaken to bolster these fi ndings. Re- mentation of land policy. Looking at the heterogeneity of the sults from a new survey, providing more detail on landlord effects will also show whether bottlenecks are binding. The supervision of share-tenants, will soon be available. The proj- second set of results relates to the second stage, whereby the ect has contributed to the World Bank’s Poverty Assessment project will analyze the effects of land consolidation on agri- in Pakistan and to the Pakistan Rural Factor Market Study. cultural productivity. The project fi ndings were presented at two Poverty and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Micro Seminars at the World Bank, Washington, D.C., and Quy-Toan Do ([email protected]), and Vietnam Sustain- at seminars at the Department of Economics of the Uni- able Development unit—Dzung The Nguyen. With Quang versity of North Carolina; George Washington University; Hoang Vu. Yale University; Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches sur Project Code: P090890. le Developpement International in Clermont-Ferrand, Completion date: June 2009. France; the NEUDC development conference, Cornell University; the Winter Econometric Society Meeting, Inequality and Investment: Land Tenure and Soil Washington, D.C.; and the South Asia Econometric Society Degradation in the Indus Basin Meeting, Lahore, Pakistan. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Develop- Landownership in Pakistan is extremely unequal, leading ment—Hanan Jacoby ([email protected]) and Ghazala to very active land leasing markets. This study investigated Mansuri ([email protected]). With Pakistan Institute the incentive problems that arise from land leasing arrange- of Development Economics; Juan Munoz, Systemas Inte- ments, particularly the relationship between the structure of grales; Beatriz Godoy, Systemas Integrales; and David Cu- land lease contracts and agricultural productivity and invest- beres, University of Chicago. ment in soil quality. Data for the study were principally from Project Code: P077760. the 2001 and 2004 Pakistan Rural Household Surveys, which Completion date: December 2005. included detailed information on input use, plot-level production, and the terms of tenancy contracts. Publications The analysis of land-specifi c investment focused on the Jacoby, Hanan, and Ghazala Mansuri. 2006. “Incomplete Con- application of farmyard manure, which has productivity ef- tracts and Investment: A Study of Land Tenancy in Rural fects over multiple seasons. The fi ndings showed that invest- Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 3826. World Bank, ment was lower on leased plots than on owned plots culti- Washington, D.C. vated by the same household, even after taking into account ———. 2007. “Incentives, Supervision, and Sharecropper Pro- potential adverse selection in the leasing market. The study ductivity.” Policy Research Working Paper 4125. World Bank, also found that greater security of tenure increased invest- Washington, D.C.

18 Bank in Cuba since the 1950s. Cuba is not a member of the The Beneﬁ ts and Costs of Organic Agriculture: Evidence World Bank, but it is a member of the United Nations; there- from Cuba fore, a tripartite arrangement was established between the World Bank, the UNDP, and the Cuban ministries. Organic farming eliminates the health damage from pesticide The research project fostered a collaborative effort be- exposure. It also has strong appeal from an environmental tween the Ministry of Investment and Cooperation, the perspective because it uses neither chemical pollutants nor Ministry of Agriculture, and the Ministry of Health (which transgenic crops. Its labor intensity and viability on a modest historically have not shared many cross-cutting initiatives). scale also add to its attraction in low-wage developing coun- The project also raised awareness within each ministry that tries where smallholder agriculture is the dominant mode of sustainable (organic) agriculture is a complex subject that production. However, until now, the existing literature has requires not only joint cooperation and knowledge sharing cited scattered experiments with organic production in de- across ministries, but also a data system that can support ret- veloping countries; data scarcity has impeded empirical work rospective analysis to inform policy. on the economics and environmental benefi ts of organic Several stakeholder presentations were made emphasiz- farming in developing countries. ing the current issues with data collection, as well as what the Although it is a potentially attractive alternative, organic design of an effective collection method would produce in farming raises a host of research issues. Comparative produc- terms of analytical work. The benefi ts of such research were tion functions, cost functions, learning curves, environmental recognized by the participants from the ministries, who indi- impacts, and public overhead costs (such as for agricultural cated their interest in pursuing future collaboration with the extension and organic certifi cation) of organic and main- World Bank to re-vamp the current data collection system to stream/chemical-based agriculture in developing countries facilitate a better monitoring and evaluation program. must be analyzed before policymakers are likely to promote Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable widespread adoption of organic methods. This research proj- Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta ect aimed to conduct an empirical analysis with historical ([email protected]), and David Wheeler (former data from Cuba, which has undergone a major transition from World Bank staff). With Craig Meisner, World Bank; Nlandu large-scale, chemical-intensive agriculture to organic farming Mamingi, University of West Indies; and Pritthijit Kundu, In- since 1990. dependent Consultant. This research conducted an empirical stochastic produc- Project Code: P082436. tion frontier analysis along with quantifi cation of environ- Completion date: December 2005. mental and health externalities. The analysis used cross-section regression with secondary data on yield and input use Publications from organic production, and structured interviews. Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, and David Wheeler. “Cuba’s The project provided a necessary fi rst step in establish- Experience with Organic Agriculture: Rural and Urban Pro- ing environmental research ties between Cuba and the World duction Trends in Havana, Bayamo and Cienfuegos.” Mimeo. Bank. During the project, it became clear that systematic study of the relationships between economic activity and Assembling and Disseminating Pesticide Use Data from environmental change would not be possible until the inter- Developing Countries ested Cuban institutions develop appropriate protocols for gathering and analyzing reliable data. The project therefore During the past three decades, indiscriminate use of chemi- focused on identifi cation of current weaknesses in the data cal pesticides in agriculture has created serious health and collection system, protocols for gathering useful data, illustra- environmental problems in many developing countries. Al- tive examples of appropriate data analysis, and development though the health and environmental effects of chemical of links among Cuban institutions that would foster useful pesticides are severe, to date information remains largely analysis for policy reform in the future. anecdotal, and these issues have received little formal study The project concluded in a collegial spirit, with the Cu- in developing countries. To a signifi cant degree, there is also ban counterparts expressing strong interest in continued a general lack of reliable data on pesticide use in develop- institutional development and research activities with the ing countries due to the high costs involved in primary farm- World Bank. level data collection. This was one of the fi rst formal initiatives by the World This research project designed surveys on pesticide use,

19 pest management, and pesticide traders in Bangladesh and and to a lesser extent on the Brazilian Amazon. It sought to Vietnam. The surveys gathered information on the pesticide assess what development policies were appropriate for less- supply chain and fl ow of information to pesticide users from favored regions of the Brazilian Northeast – locales that face pesticide companies; determinants of farm-level pesticide multiple constraints of environment, infrastructure, human use; extent of pesticide over use and misuse; information on and social capital, and governance. Further, as the policy ap- risk, training on safe handling of pesticides, and use of pro- proach moved from a sector to a territorial focus, the project tective measures; extent of pesticide poisoning, if any; and looked at how the goal of geographic equity could be bal- comparative economics (input use and yield) of conventional anced against the goal of poverty alleviation, and whether and Integrated Pest Management farming. there was a tradeoff if these goals were congruent. In Bangladesh, the survey on pesticide use collected in- The project relied on the econometric analysis of spatially formation from 1,078 randomly selected farmers. The survey explicit data describing poverty, development, and the envi- focused on major pesticide intensive crops, and the sample ronment. It sponsored compilations of spatial agro-climatic, was geographically stratifi ed. Additional surveys collected in- environmental, and socioeconomic data for the Brazilian formation on pest management from 126 randomly selected Northeast and Amazon regions. rice farmers, and 110 pesticide traders. The project fi ndings showed a very strong infl uence of In Vietnam, the survey on pesticide use collected informa- initial workforce educational levels on subsequent wage tion from 603 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The survey on growth (controlling for possibly confounding variables such the effects of pesticide use collected both survey and clinical as remoteness and climate). It also found evidence of positive data from 481 farmers. spillover effects of own municipal growth on neighbors’ wage The project compiled a summary of the variables, units and employment levels, an exodus from farming areas, a rela- of observation, geo-administrative units (city/district/county/ tively elastic response of wages to an increase in labor supply, province or state), frequency, period, and populations cov- and a local multiplier effect from government transfers. ered. The Web site Toxic Pollution from Agriculture: Costs Project fi ndings were presented at the XVII Fórum Na- and Remedies has been hyper-linked with the Web pages of cional, sponsored by Instituto Nacional de Altos Estudos, in the following World Bank initiatives: Agricultural Research Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (May 2005). for Development, Environmental Health, Pest Management Responsibility: Independent Evaluation Group—Kenneth Guidebook under Pesticide Safeguards, Persistent Organic Chomitz ([email protected]), and Piet Buys. With Pollutants, South Asia Region, and Bangladesh and Vietnam Edinaldo Tebaldi, FUNCEME. country Web pages. Project Code: P093926. Project fi ndings have been posted on the following Web Completion date: June 2007. sites: http://www.worldbank.org/nipr Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- Publications ral and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta (sdas- Carvalho, Alexandre, Daniel da Mata, and Kenneth M. Chomitz. [email protected]). With Pritthijit Kundu, consultant; 2005. “Estimation of Multiequation Cross-Section Models Development Policy Group, World Bank; University of Eco- in the Presence of Spatial Autocorrelation.” Ipea, Texto nomics; and Vietnam Association of Occupational Health. para Discussão no. 1111. Project Code: P096815. Chomitz, Kenneth.M. 2005. “Políticas de desenvolvimento para Completion date: March 2006. um espaço heterogêneo.” In João Paulo dos Reis Velloso, coord., O Desafio da China e da Índia: A Resposta do Brasil. Spatial Patterns of Poverty, Development, and Editora José Olympio, Rio de Janeiro. [Portuguese] Environment Chomitz, Kenneth M., Daniel da Mata, Alexandre Ywata de Car- valho, and João Carlos Magalhães. 2005. “Spatial Dynamics This project, in collaboration with researchers at the Instituto of Labor Markets in Brazil.” Policy Research Working Paper de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Brasilia), assembled mu- 3752. World Bank, Washington, D.C.; and Ipea: Texto para nicipal level data on labor, infrastructure, and a variety of geo- Discussão no. 1110. graphical characteristics. One of the goals was to understand how remoteness, transport infrastructure, and other factors affect the spatial distribution of poverty. The project focused mainly on the Brazilian Northeast,

20 Farm Productivity and Market Structure: Evidence from farm households in these countries, improved understanding Cotton Reforms in Zambia of the effects of government distortions to agricultural incentives is necessary for more-informed policy debate. The objective of this project was to investigate the effects Building on an earlier study by Krueger, Schiff and Valdes, of cotton marketing reforms on farm production in Zambia. this project used a much larger sample of countries, more- The Zambian marketing reforms involved a change in mar- sophisticated (computable general equilibrium) modeling ket structure, from a public monopoly to a private oligopoly. and micro simulation to estimate effects, and more-advanced The research sought to understand how these reforms af- political economy theory. The methodology was placed on fected household farm production and therefore income the project’s Web site (www.worldbank.org/agdistortions) and poverty. to attract external comments. Data on prices and quantities The study, unlike much of the literature, had a clear quan- were gathered from offi cial national sources. titative focus. Unusual data covering several years allowed The project studied agricultural protection rates in Japan, the researchers to track some of the dynamic effects of the Korea, and Taiwan (China). It found that agricultural protec- reforms. The work was based on econometric analysis (both tion rates have increased with per capita income; the rates are parametric and non-parametric), using farm surveys produced higher the lower the agricultural comparative advantage of a by the Zambia Central Statistical Offi ce. country; and the anti-agricultural bias of earlier decades has This type of marketing reform has dynamic effects that disappeared and been replaced by ever-increasing protection need to be taken into account. At the beginning, the priva- of farmers in these three economies. The anti-trade bias in tization led to an increase in yields and in participation in agricultural policies, and the high standard deviation, sug- cotton production. However, as market entry ensued, compe- gested that much would be gained from improved resource tition led to a failure of the out-grower scheme and thus to a allocation by reducing that protectionism. decline in yields and participation in cotton production. This The fi rst stage of the project produced several papers and trend was later reverted when contracts between fi rms and a price distortions database. These will be key inputs in the farmers were more tightly enforced. second stage, which will analyze in much more depth, includ- This project contributed to the Zambia Diagnostic Trade ing through cross-country comparisons, the economic effects Integration Study. of those and alternative policies and the political economy Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— reasons behind those policy choices. Lessons and policy im- Guido Porto ([email protected]). With Jorge Balat, Yale plications from the analyses will be drawn out for various University; CELAS, Argentina, University of La Plata. types of low-income countries. Project Code: P095106. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Completion date: June 2006. Kym Anderson ([email protected]) and Will Martin. With Masyoshi Honma, University of Tokyo. Publications Project Code: P093929. Porto, Guido G., and Irene Brambilla. 2006. “Farm Productiv- Completion date: June 2006. ity and Market Structure: Evidence from Cotton Reforms in Zambia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3904. World Bank, Publications Washington, D.C. Hayami, Yujiro. 2007. “An Emerging Agricultural Problem in ———. 2006. “Market Structure, Outgrower Contracts and Farm High-Performing Asian Economies.” Policy Research Work- Output: Evidence from Cotton Reforms in Zambia.” (http:// ing Paper 4312. siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/ZambiaCot- Honma, M., and Y. Hayami. Forthcoming. “Korea and Taiwan.” ton.pdf). In Kym Anderson and Will Martin, eds., Distortions to Agricul- tural Incentives in Asia. Washington D.C.: The World Bank. Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in East Asia ———. “Japan, Korea and Taiwan.” In Kym Anderson, ed., Dis- tortions to Agricultural Incentives: A Global Perspective. London: This research project investigated the ways in which trade- Palgrave Macmillan; and Washington D.C.: The World Bank. related policies have distorted prices faced by farmers in the course of economic development. The Northeast Asian expe- Distortions to Farm Incentives rience since the 1950s is highly relevant for later-developing countries. Since a large proportion of the world’s poor are in This research project is synthesizing and publicizing new

21 estimates of the extent of distortions to farm incentives for Extension and Documentation of the Tariff Rate Quota more than 50 developing countries. Since a large proportion Databank with Analysis of Tariff Structures of the world’s poor are in farm households in these countries, improved understanding of the effects of government dis- The objective of this research project was to fi ll in data gaps tortions to agricultural incentives is necessary for more-in- on tariff rate quotas (TRQs), particularly the bound versus ap- formed policy debate. plied in-quota and over-quota Most Favored Nation (MFN) Building on an earlier study by Krueger, Schiff and Valdes, tariffs. The analysis calculated trade-weighted, simple aver- the analysis uses a much larger sample of countries and age, maximum, and representative tariffs for each TRQ (with more-sophisticated (computable general equilibrium, CGE) ad valorem equivalents, calculated using a world price de- modeling. It is estimating the economic welfare cost, and termined with value/quantity data), and reported tariffs for the cost or benefi t in terms of net farm income, of current quota and non-quota imports separately. Cases where no im- or prospective national distortions to agricultural incentives. ports occurred at the MFN applied tariff were also identifi ed. The distortions are measured relative to free markets and The project used this information to calculate three sources to politically feasible alternative ways of achieving society’s of “water” in the tariff: preferential imports; binding quotas; non-economic objectives that are more effi cient, equitable, and binding tariff overhang. Additional data were collected or poverty alleviating. A subsidiary objective is to compare on quota fi ll rates, over-quota imports, and quota over-fi ll. the economic effects of each developing country’s national The research was used to simulate the trade liberalization policies with those of other developing countries or high-in- effects of TRQ expansion compared with tariff reduction. An come countries. The own-country effects of other countries’ analysis of alternative TRQ expansion formulas under con- policies will serve as an input into that country’s negotiations sideration in the WTO negotiations was also undertaken. on preferential and especially multilateral trade agreements Data sources for non-quota tariffs and trade included the In- (most notably the Doha Development Agenda). tegrated Database of the World Trade Organization (WTO), The methodology for estimating rates of assistance to while special safeguard tariffs were collected from indi- farmers has been placed on the project’s Web site (www. vidual country notifi cations to the WTO. Preferential tariff worldbank.org/agdistortions). The CGE model used is the data were gleaned from individual studies on preferences by Bank’s Linkage Model. country. These data were supplemented by data collected by The CGE results suggest much would be gained from im- CEPII and ICONE. proved resource allocation by reducing agricultural protection TRQs protect more than 50 percent of OECD agricul- rates in more-advanced economies and the remaining agri- tural production and provide an even higher share of import cultural dis-protection in numerous lower-income countries. protection. Water tariff varies across commodities and coun- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— tries. Because of the sources of water, tariff reductions would Kym Anderson ([email protected]), Marianne Kurz- need to be substantial in these cases before signifi cant trade weil, and Ernesto Valenzuela, DECRG. liberalization would occur. The project analysis determined Project Code: P105591. that trade increased only 53 percent of the quota expansion Completion date: June 2008. because of pre-existing, over-quota imports (assuming a 100 percent quota fi ll rate). This declined to 34 percent after ad- Publications justing for the historical fi ll rate with quota under-fi ll due to Anderson, Kym, ed. Forthcoming. Distortions to Agricultural In- non-transparent, non-MFN quotas with ineffi cient adminis- centives: Global Perspective. Palgrave University Press; and tration methods and additional regulations, and high in-quota Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. tariffs. Project fi ndings were presented at a Roundtable Anderson, Kym, and Will Masters, eds. Forthcoming. Distor- Exploring Options for Making Progress on the WTO Mar- tions to Agricultural Incentives: Africa. Washington, D.C.: The ket Access and Domestic Support Pillars, Glion, Switzerland World Bank. (January 2007). Anderson, Kym, and Will Martin, eds. Forthcoming. Distortions to Ag- Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development De- ricultural Incentives: Asia. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. partment—John Nash ([email protected]). With Valdes, Alberto, and Kym Anderson, eds. Forthcoming. Distor- Erika Kliauga, Cornell University, and Harry de Gorter, tions to Agricultural Incentives: Latin America. Washington, Cornell University. D.C.: The World Bank. Project Code: P098152. Completion date: December 2006.

22 Publications tions in water management, such as conjunctive use of sur- de Gorter, Harry. 2007. “Key Issues for Mercosur Countries face and ground water under conditions of frequent drought in the Doha Negotiations on Agriculture.” Report for and water transfer to satisfy urban and industrial water de- Mercosur (June). mand. The analysis also examined the effects of governance ———. Forthcoming. “The Economics of Tariff Rate Import structure and institutional arrangements, including replacing Quotas.” Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy. domestic input and output subsidies with direct farm income de Gorter, Harry, and Erika Kliauga. 2006. “Issues in Liberal- payments and allowing revenue generation and investment izing Agricultural Tariff Rate Quotas in the Doha Negotia- at the regional level. tions.” Report for the Food and Agriculture Organization of Responsibility: Development Research Group—Ariel Dinar (adi- the United Nations (June). [email protected]). With Xinshen Diao, International Food ———. 2007. “Breaking the Doha Impasse on Agricultural Mo- Policy Research Institute; Terry Roe, University of Minne- dalities for Sensitive Products and Tariff Rate Quota Expan- sota; and Yacov Tsur, Hebrew University of Jerusalem. sion.” Report for the World Bank (March). Project Code: P081240. Jank, Marcos, Cinthia Costa, Erika Kliauga, Andre Nassar, Mario Completion date: October 2004. Jales, and Harry de Gorter. 2007. A Database for the Evalu- ation of Agricultural Trade Reforms with Water in Tariffs and Publications Tariff Rate Quotas. Instituto de Estudos do Comércio e Ne- Diao, Xinshen, Ariel Dinar, Terry Roe, and Yacov Tsur. Forth- gociações Internacionais (ICONE), São Paulo, Brazil. coming. “A General Equilibrium Analysis of Conjunctive Ground and Surface Water Use with an Application to Mo- Macro-Micro Linkages of Irrigated Water Management rocco.” Agricultural Economics. Roe, Terry, Ariel Dinar, Yacov Tsur, and Xinshen Diao. 2005. Where irrigated agriculture remains an important sector in “Feedback Links between Economywide and Farm-Level terms of resource use, policy interventions aimed at improv- Policies: Application to Irrigation Water Management in Mo- ing water use in the sector will have direct and indirect ef- rocco.” Policy Research Working Paper 3550. World Bank, fects on the rest of the economy. Irrigation policy reform has Washington, D.C. direct effects on the farm fi rm, these effects have an impact ______. 2005. “Feedback Links Between Economy-Wide and on the broader economy, and the adjustments in the econo- Farm-Level Policies: With Application to Irrigation Wa- my in turn affect the farm fi rm. ter Management in Morocco.” Journal of Policy Modeling This study traced direct and indirect effects of policy re- 27(8): 905-28. form on the economy and on the water sector. The analytic framework relied in part on a computable general equilib- Capacity Building Activity to Train Users of a rium model aligned with a built-in, farm-level model. Using Methodology Developed in the Study: “Macro-Micro these components, the study developed a tractable empiri- Feedback Links of Irrigation Water Management” cal model of the macro-micro linkages and applied it to data from Morocco. This research project aims to develop capacity-building ac- To show how macro-micro linkages worked, the study con- tivities to enhance the impact and utility of a methodology ducted several sets of policy analysis. The fi rst set centered to improve macro-micro feedback links in irrigation water on macroeconomic policies, with trade reform illustrating the management. The methodology was developed and demon- links. The second dealt with microeconomic policies, with strated in the fi rst phase, based on the case of Morocco. A water reform chosen to illustrate the links. Trade reform re- second phase of the study in South Africa and Turkey will moving protection caused all endogenous variables to change, further develop and expand the methodology. shifting the economy to a new equilibrium—and benefi ting South Africa and Turkey face severe water problems that the country as a whole. The trade reform lowered the shadow are exacerbated by equity, growth, and resource sustain- price of water allocated to protected crops. The direct effect ability issues. Both countries have been engaged in various of water reform at the farm level in Morocco was to reduce macro and micro-economic policy reforms that directly and the water allocated to soft wheat production by 36.6 percent indirectly affect the water and agricultural sectors as well as and that for sugarcane production by 3.7 percent. The water the entire economy. released was then allocated to other crops. In the case of South Africa, the policy issues include: ad- Additional sets of policy analysis looked at local interven- dressing equity in water allocation, both in agriculture and in

23 the peri-urban areas; securing and valuing water-environment The experimental design allowed an examination of the po- relationships; establishing institutions to allow the trade of tential endogeneity of social networks. The project collected water within and between sectors; developing international detailed baseline and follow-up information on the farmer’s trade programs in which South Africa is the major supplier of family and friends in the self-help group. Based on that infor- grains for the African continent and a trader with the United mation, the analysis showed that although farmers’ decision States and the European Union; and evaluating labor policies to participate in DrumNet was infl uenced by the decision of that regulate labor movement and migration of laborers from their baseline peers, participants were more likely to seek other countries. out other participants, changing their network altogether. For Turkey, the major issues include: opening trade and re- This was especially true if the farmer had no prior experi- moving protection, both in the framework of the future World ence growing the crop. Trade Organization Agreement on Agriculture and European The project fi ndings suggest that marketing and credit, Union membership; prioritizing investment between irriga- more than extension services, were key in fostering technol- tion and other sectors; implementing adjustments to comply ogy adoption. Such interventions, however, needed a critical with European Union Water Framework Directives and the mass of farmers to break even, and so the particular context shift to volumetric pricing in irrigated agriculture; and subsi- was important. dizing reform, including changes in the structure of budget- Project fi ndings were presented at seminars at the Uni- ary transfers to farmers. versity of California Davis, and for the World Bank Thematic Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- Group on Poverty Impact Analysis, Monitoring, and Evalua- ral and Urban Development Team—Ariel Dinar (adinar@ tion, World Bank, Washington, D.C. worldbank.org). With Xinshen Diao; James Thurlow, Inter- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance Team— national Food Policy Research Institute; Terry Roe, Univer- Xavier Giné ([email protected]). With Nava Ashraf, Har- sity of Minnesota; Yacov Tsur, Hebrew University of Jerusa- vard University; Dean Karlan, Yale University and Innova- lem; Erol Cakmak, Sirin Saracoglu, and Hasan Dudu, Middle tions for Poverty Action; and Walter Odhiambo, University of East Technical University; Rashid Hassan; and Chumi Singo, Nairobi and IDS. CEEPA University of Pretoria, South Africa. Project Codes: P085253 and P093504. Project Code: P100519. Completion date: January 2006. Completion date: June 2008. Publications Impact of Credit on Agriculture Ashraf, N., X. Gine, and D. Karlan. 2007. “Cheaper to Talk (Than to Trust): Network Formation in Rural Kenya.” World Bank, In much of the developing world, many farmers grow crops Washington, D.C. Working Paper. for local or personal consumption despite export options that ———. 2007. “Finding Missing Markets: Evidence from an Ex- appear to be more profi table. Thus many conjecture that one port Crop Adoption and Marketing Intervention in Kenya.” or several markets are missing. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Working Paper. This research project analyzed a randomized, controlled trial conducted by DrumNet in Kenya that attempted to Impact of Weather Insurance in Malawi help farmers adopt and market export crops. DrumNet encouraged the adoption of export oriented crops by providing The adoption of new agricultural technologies may be dis- smallholder farmers with information about how to switch couraged by their inherent riskiness. This research project to export crops, with credit for purchase of the agricultural implemented a randomized fi eld experiment to analyze inputs, and with marketing services by then facilitating the whether the provision of insurance against a major source of transaction with exporters. The project’s experimental de- production risk would induce farmers to take out loans to in- sign randomly assigned pre-existing farmer self-help groups vest in a new crop variety. to one of three groups: a treatment group that received all The study sample was composed of roughly 800 maize DrumNet services, a treatment group that received all Drum- and groundnut farmers in Malawi, where by far the dominant Net services except credit, and a control group. source of production risk is the level of rainfall. The project Overall, the complete DrumNet package led to an in- randomly selected half of the farmers to be offered credit to crease in production of export oriented crops and lower mar- purchase high-yielding hybrid maize and groundnut seeds keting costs that translated to income gains for new adopters. for planting in the November 2006 crop season. The other

24 half were offered a similar credit package but were also required to purchase (at actuarially fair rates) a weather insurance policy that partially or fully forgave the loan in the event of poor rainfall. Take-up was 33.0 percent for farmers who were offered the uninsured loan. Surprisingly, take-up was lower, at only 17.6 percent, among farmers offered insurance with the loan. The project results suggested that reduced take-up of the insured loan was due to the high cognitive cost of evaluating the insurance: insured loan take-up was positively correlated with farmer education levels. By contrast, take-up of the uninsured loan was uncorrelated with farmer education. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance Team— Xavier Giné ([email protected]). With Dean Yang, Uni- versity of Michigan. Project Code: P106358. Completion date: October 2007.

Report Gine, X., and D. Yang. “Insurance, Credit, and Technology Adop- tion: Field Experimental Evidence from Malawi.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ DEC/Resources/Insurance_Credit_and_Technology_Adop- tion_Field_Experimental_Evidence_from_Malawi.pdf.

25 Environment and Natural Resources Management

Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable of information is remote sensing, which is capable of observ- Development: Risks, Beneﬁ ts, and Institutional ing events and outcomes in remote locations and across vast Implications landscapes. Because remote sensing provides continuous measurements of weather and its impact on the earth’s sur- Developing countries, now accounting for half the world’s face, the data can also help determine the infl uence of cli- emissions of greenhouse gases, can expect to be called on to mate variability on year-to-year agricultural production and control their emissions at some point in the future and indeed vegetation in rural communities. already face some pressure to do so as early as 2013. This re- This study investigated the link between climate and ru- search project is intended to improve the understanding of ral poverty using detailed household survey data and remote the potential benefi ts and risks of climate change mitigation sensing data on climate from defense satellites. The study policies in developing countries and to draw implications for applied a Ricardian (cross-sectional) approach, which was de- the architecture of the future climate regime. veloped in earlier studies in Africa and India, to seven coun- The study addresses four key questions: tries in Latin America—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, • How can developing countries avoid the risks of lock- Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. in in developing long-lived capital that emits green- The analysis drew on the household surveys for informa- house gases, such as transport infrastructure and power tion on farm performance across a broad range of climates as generation facilities? well as data on socioeconomic conditions, and used the satel- • What are the distributional impacts of climate lite data on climate to explain the observed variation in farm policies? performance. Observing how farm performance changes with • How can climate change mitigation leverage fi nancing climate made it possible to estimate long-run impacts. The for development? analytic approach fully captured adaptation by farmers to the • What should be the balance between mitigation of and climate in which they live. The technique measured the full adaptation to climate change? net cost of climate change, including the costs as well as the The analysis will be based on microeconomic and macro- benefi ts of adaptation. economic modeling applied to various countries, including Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Depart- Brazil and India. The project is part of a broader research ef- ment—Ariel Dinar ([email protected]). With Robert fort aimed at equipping the World Bank to help client coun- Mendelsohn, Yale University; Alan Basist, Commodity Hedg- tries negotiate the post-Kyoto climate regime. ers; the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agricul- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure ture, Costa Rica; the Cooperative Program for the Agricul- and Environment Team—Zmarak Shalizi (zshalizi@world- tural-Technological Development of the Southern Cone, bank.org) and Franck Lecocq. Uruguay; and the Cooperative Program for Agricultural- Project Code: P084595. Technological Innovation of the Andean Group, Venezuela. Completion date: January 2008. The Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture contributed funding for the research. Climate Change and Rural Development in South Project Code: P087597. America Completion date: December 2006.

The importance of climate to ecosystems and agriculture is Publications well known, yet relatively little research has investigated the Mendelsohn, R., A. Basist, A. Dinar, P. Kurukulasuriya, and C. interaction between climate and rural poverty, especially in Williams. 2007. “What Explains Agricultural Performance: developing countries. Part of the problem has been inade- Climate Normals or Climate Variance?” Climatic Change quate information, which has made it diffi cult to monitor the 81(1): 85-99. impact of climate—including extreme climate events such Mendelsohn, R., A. Basist, P. Kurukulasuriya, and A. Dinar. 2007. as fl oods, hurricanes, and prolonged droughts—on poor, rural “Climate and Rural Income.” Climatic Change 81(1): 101-18. communities in many areas of the world. A promising source Mendelsohn, Robert, and Niggol Seo. 2007. “Changing Farm

26 Types and Irrigation as an Adaptation to Climate Change in The Impacts of Sea Level Rise Latin American Agriculture.” Policy Research Working Pa- per 4161. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global Seo, Niggol, and Robert Mendelsohn. 2007. “An Analysis of threat: The scientifi c evidence is now overwhelming. The Crop Choice: Adapting to Climate Change in Latin Ameri- continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associ- can Farms.” Policy Research Working Paper 4162. World ated global warming could well promote SLR of 1m-3m in Bank, Washington, D.C. this century, and with the rapid breakup of the Greenland ———. 2007. “An Analysis of Livestock Choice: Adapting to and West Antarctic ice sheets, might produce a 5m SLR. Climate Change in Latin American Farms.” Policy Research This research project has assessed the consequences of Working Paper 4164. World Bank, Washington, D.C. continued SLR for 84 developing countries. Geographic In- ———. 2007. “A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate formation System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the Change on Latin American Farms.” Policy Research Work- best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on several ing Paper 4163. World Bank, Washington, D.C. critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the inundation zones pro- Institutions for Climate Change Adaptation jected for 1-5m SLR. Our results reveal that even a one meter rise would turn 56 million people in the developing world This research project investigated the institutional implica- into environmental refugees; and accompanying economic tions of and risk management strategies for climate change and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the coun- in southern African countries. The project sought to answer try-level, results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts the question: How can countries adapt institutionally to cli- limited to a relatively small number of countries. For these mate change? The project utilized regional climate model countries (e.g., Vietnam, A.R. of Egypt, The Bahamas), how- output to inform policy. It assessed novel weather risk man- ever, the consequences of SLR are potentially catastrophic. agement approaches (weather insurance for small holder For many others, including some of the largest (e.g., China), farmers) as a means to adapt to climate change. And it iden- the absolute magnitude of potential impacts are very large. tifi ed opportunities to mainstream climate adaptation into At the other extreme, many developing countries experience lending and operations. The analysis was based on regional limited impacts. Among regions, East Asia and Middle East/ climate modeling, institutional analysis, surveys, and fi nan- North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. To date, cial and risk modeling. The fi ndings showed the following: there is little evidence that the international community has • Distorted risk perceptions have led to policy failure. seriously considered the implications of SLR for population • Projected changes in climate have had important im- location and infrastructure planning in developing countries. plications for farming practices in southern Africa. The information provided by this research could help spur • Concrete opportunities exist in country lending pro- vulnerable countries to develop national adaptation plans grams to incorporate climate risk management. now in order to avoid future losses. • HIV/AIDS has led to institutional erosion and reduced Project results were presented at an in-depth briefi ng for institutional capacity to deal with climate shocks. journalists at Legislators Forum on Climate Change, covered • There have been many diffi cult challenges in micro- by Reuters, Associated Press, Dow Jones, International Her- insurance for helping smallholder farmers adapt to in- ald Tribune, Associated Press-Australia, The Sydney Morn- creased climate variability. ing Herald, and other publications; the International Mone- • Seasonal climate forecasts could be used to enhance tary Fund, Washington, D.C. (February 2006 and May 2007); weather-based insurance schemes. and the Conference on Climate Change and International Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development—Alexan- Development: Impacts and Responses, organized by Friends der Lotsch ([email protected]). With Pablo Suarez, of the Earth, ActionAid International, Oxfam, and others, Red Cross Climate Center; Anthony Patt, Boston University; Washington, D.C. (April 2007). Dagmar Schroeter, Clarke University; International Institute Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- for Applied Systems Analysis; University of Cape Town; Ma- ral and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta (sdas- lawi Institute of Management; Potsdam Institute for Climate [email protected]) and David Wheeler. With Craig Meis- Impact Research; and ENGREF Paris. ner, Benoit Laplante, Jianping Yan, and Jillian Kingston. Project Code: P095887. Project Code: P088889. Completion date: June 2007. Completion date: June 2006.

27 Publications ral and Urban Development Team—David Wheeler (former Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David World Bank staff); Susmita Dasgupta; Uwe Deichmann; Piet Wheeler, and Jianping Yan. 2007. “The Impact of Sea-Level Buys, IEG; Kenneth M. Chomitz, Environment Department; Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis.” Kirk Hamilton; Anjali Acharya; and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez. Policy Research Working Paper 4136. World Bank, Washing- With Kiran Pandey, Global Environment Facility; Craig ton, D.C. Meisner; Mainul Huq; M. Khaliquzzaman; and Bart Ostro, San Francisco Bay Area Air Quality Management District. Environmental Indicators Project Code: P076657. Completion date: June 2007. This research project responded to the need for better environmental measures to guide the World Bank and the Global Publications Environment Facility in setting priorities for environmental Acharya, Anjali, Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez, Kirk Hamilton, Piet grants, loans, and analytic and advisory activities. Buys, Susmita Dasgupta, Craig Meisner, Kiran Pandey, and For the World Bank, the work focused on comparing its David Wheeler. 2004. “How Has Environment Mattered? actual environmental investments with the portfolio of in- An Analysis of World Bank Resource Allocation.” Policy Re- vestments implied by its environment strategy. The proj- search Working Paper 3269. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ect compared priorities and actual activities relating to six Ramankutty, Ramesh, Kiran Pandey, and David Wheeler. 2005. themes: pollution, biodiversity, fragile lands, water resources, “Technical Paper on the GEF Resource Allocation Frame- global emissions, and environmental institutions. work.” Global Environment Facility, Washington, D.C. The analysis used a microeconomic approach to optimal budget allocation, which posited an overall objective function, Markets for Environmental Resources a budget constraint, and productivity measures for investments in partner countries. Using this framework, the project This project encompasses three studies reviewing experi- compared actual and optimal World Bank allocations for envi- ence relevant for new institutions under the Kyoto Protocol. ronmental investment and analytical and advisory services. The fi rst examines U.S. experience with “banking” emission For all sectors, the World Bank application found low permits under the U.S. program for sulfur dioxide emissions. correlations between actual and optimal lending and AAA Some environmental advocates believe that the creation of ratings in all regions where the World Bank works. For the such assets slows the adoption of new and less-polluting Global Environment Facility, the work focused on develop- technologies. This study considers how inventories of sulfur ment of a biodiversity indicator to guide allocation of funds dioxide permits affect technology choices. Econometric esti- for biodiversity conservation. mates based on panel data suggest considerable substitution The Global Environment Facility biodiversity application possibilities between emissions, fuels, labor, and capital in drew on scientifi c measures of species distributions and ex- electric power generation. In the short run, relative fuel pric- tinction risks to develop an index of expected biodiversity es are a more important determinant of factor substitution conservation benefi ts across all countries where the Global than are changes in permit prices, and they continue to be Environment Facility worked. The project developed a bio- the predominant force as stocks of capital and permits adjust diversity index for allocating biodiversity grants in the next in the long run. tranche of Global Environment Facility funding. The second study relates to provisions of the Kyoto Pro- Project fi ndings were presented at the World Bank for the tocol that permit the creation of project-based tradable off- Environment Sector Board (2003, 2006); Health, Nutrition sets to meet treaty obligations. To test novel aspects of these and Population Sector Board (2006); the country director for provisions before their adoption, treaty participants agreed to Bangladesh (2004); staff of the East Asia and Pacifi c Region launch country-based pilot projects, referred to collectively (2004); staff of the Middle East and North Africa Region as Activities Implemented Jointly. Relying on a nine-year (2004); staff of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region history of projects, the study investigates the determinants (2006); the Operations Policy and Country Services Vice of Activities Implemented Jointly investment. The fi ndings Presidency (2006); the Strategy, Finance and Risk Manage- suggest that private sector incentives to invest have been ment Vice Presidency (2006); and the Governing Council of fi ltered by a selection process that advanced national politi- the Global Environment Facility (2005). cal objectives. This characterization differs from the market- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- based assumptions that underlie well-known estimates of

28 cost savings related to the Kyoto Protocol’s fl exibility mecha- to the U.S. Conservation Reserve Program, where landhold- nisms. If institutions developed under the Activities Imple- ers voluntarily bid to put land under conservation easements mented Jointly programs for approving projects are retained and the bids are ranked by a simple cost-effectiveness for- as the protocol is implemented, benefi ts from the fl exibility mula. For each policy scenario, TAMARIN reports in tabular provisions will fall short of those widely expected. and mapped form economic outcomes (such as expenditure A third study focuses on the development of markets re- on incentives and the opportunity cost of land selected for lated to the Kyoto Protocol. These include markets related conservation) and environmental outcomes (including land to the European Union’s emission trading scheme, as well as cover, habitat connectivity, edge effects, and representation projects from the United Nations Framework Convention on of different sub-ecosystems). The central concern is whether Climate Change’s Clean Development Mechanism and Joint uncoordinated individual responses to incentives can yield Implementation programs. connected habitats large enough to sustain viable popula- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure tions of key fauna. and Environment Team—Donald F. Larson (dlarson@world- The research found that land in South Bahia has a rela- bank.org). With Ariel Dinar and Philippe Ambrosi, World tively low market value, with forested land worth about 70 Bank; Timothy Considine, Rebecca Entler, Shilpa Rao, and percent less than otherwise equivalent land. The research Nazia Mohammed, Pennsylvania State University; Shaikh found that in principle, a voluntary incentive system could Mahfuzur Rahman, University of Maryland; and Gunnar yield a reserve network characterized by large, ecologically Breustedt, University of Kiel. viable patches of contiguous forest, and by representation of Project Code: P081180. sub-regions with distinct vegetation types and biotic assem- Completion date: Ongoing. blages – without explicit planning for those outcomes. The results suggested that tradeoffs between conservation and Publications agriculture may be modest and that incentive-based policies Considine, Timothy J., and Donald F. Larson. 2006. “The Envi- have the potential to achieve conservation goals at relatively ronment as a Factor of Production.” Journal of Environmental low cost. Economics and Management 52(3): 645-62. These fi ndings have implications for broad classes of Larson, Donald F., and Gunnar Breustedt. 2007. “Will Markets economic instruments now under discussion in Brazil and Direct Investments under the Kyoto Protocol?” Policy Re- elsewhere, including payments for carbon sequestration ser- search Working Paper 4131. World Bank, Washington, D.C. vices from regeneration, and transferable development rights (trade of legal forest reserve). Economic Instruments for Habitat Conservation The project organized two workshops in Salvador, Ba- hia—one for government offi cials and environmental non- This research project was designed to fi nd cost-effective, governmental organizations (June 2001) and the other for economically attractive, and socially acceptable policies for the management committee of the Bahia Ecological Corridor conservation of “biodiversity hotspots.” The research fo- (December 2003). Findings were presented at a workshop at cused on the Central Atlantic Forest Corridor in the south of the World Conservation Congress in Bangkok, Thailand (No- the Brazilian state of Bahia, among the most important parts vember 2004). And the work has been cited in a World Bank of a forest that is ranked among the habitats with highest pri- Institute course on territorial development in Brazil. Project ority for conservation. fi ndings were featured in the 2007 Policy Research Report The project constructed and applied a bio-economic on Tropical Forests, At Loggerheads? model representing the economic and environmental im- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure pacts of specifi c land use confi gurations, and carried out a and Environment Team—Kenneth M. Chomitz (kchomitz@ simulation of incentive-based land use policies. It defi ned an worldbank.org). With the Instituto de Estudios Sócioambien- environmental objective function, gathered and integrated tais do Sul da Bahia, Brazil; the Institute for Computational geographic data on land characteristics, defi ned biologically Earth System Science, University of California at Santa Bar- distinct sub-zones of the study area, estimated a hedonic bara; W. Wayt Thomas, New York Botanical Gardens; Andre model of land value and imputed it across the landscape, and Mauricio de Carvalho, Comissão Executiva do Plano da La- constructed a spatially explicit software model, TAMARIN, voura Cacaueira (CEPLAC), Brazil; Industrial Economics, which draws on these components. United States; and Timothy S. Thomas. The Rain Forest The simulations envision an auction-based program similar Trust Administration Unit contributed funding for the re-

29 search. Conservation International (Brazil and United States), by vegetation, and runoff for each one. The models, once the Center for Advanced Biodiversity Science, the Federal calibrated by comparing observed and model-predicted river University of Minas Gerais, and the Instituto de Estudios fl ows, can be used to predict the effect on low fl ows, peak Sócioambientais do Sul da Bahia contributed data and staff fl ows, and average fl ows of geographically specifi c scenarios time, and the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografi a e Estatística of change in land cover. contributed data. The project led to several key fi ndings. First, simulation Project Code: P053633. models can inform policy and project design about the effects Completion date: June 2006. of land use management and biodiversity on hydrological functions. Second, deforestation increases total water yield at Publications all scales for agricultural and other human uses. Third, defor- Chomitz, Kenneth M., Keith Alger, Timothy S. Thomas, Helo- estation increases the risk of moderate (but not catastrophic) isa Orlando, and Paulo Vila Nova. 2005. “Opportunity Costs fl oods even in large basins. And fourth, links between defor- of Conservation in a Biodiversity Hotspot: The Case of estation and vulnerability are more likely to be important in Southern Bahia.” Environment and Development Economics smaller watersheds. 10(3): 1–20. The project’s results contributed to the Millennium Eco- Chomitz, K M., G.A.B. Da Fonseca, K. Alger, D.M. Stoms, M. system Assessment, and were disseminated at the Water- Honzák, E. Charlotte Landau, T.S. Thomas, W. Wayt Thom- shed Policy Seminar held at the World Bank, Washington, as, and F. Davis. 2006. “Viable Reserve Networks Arise from D.C. (December 2003); at the Alternatives to Slash and Burn Individual Landholder Responses to Conservation Incen- Forests and Water Meeting organized by the Center for In- tives.” Ecology and Society 11(2): 40. http://www.ecologyand- ternational Forestry Research (CIFOR) in Bogor, Indonesia society.org/vol11/iss2/art40/ (December 2004); and at a Watershed Management Work- Stoms, David M., Kenneth M. Chomitz, and Frank W. Davis. shop at the World Bank, Washington, D.C. (February 2005). 2004. “TAMARIN: A Landscape Framework for Evaluating In addition, results have been integrated into ongoing train- Economic Incentives for Rainforest Restoration.” Landscape ing and outreach activities provided by the World Agrofor- and Urban Planning 68(1): 95–108. estry Centre and Alternatives to Slash-and-Burn Programme World Bank, Conservation International, and University of Cali- for policymakers and technical staff in developing countries. fornia Santa Barbara. TAMARIN: A Planning Support System Findings were featured in the 2007 Policy Research Report for Designing and Evaluating Conservation Strategies. www. on tropical forests, At Loggerheads? tamarinmodel.org. Much of the data developed by the project are available at http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/bnpp_phase2_data- The Functional Value of Biodiversity sets.htm. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure This research project investigated the conditions under and Environment Team—Kenneth M. Chomitz (kchomitz@ which maintaining high-biodiversity tropical forests yields worldbank.org). With the World Agroforestry Centre hydrological benefi ts, such as fl ood prevention. The aim was (ICRAF); the Alternatives to Slash-and-Burn Programme; the to provide practical guidance for the design of policies and International Food Policy Research Institute; Porranee Rat- projects (especially for natural resource management and tanaviwatpong Thanapakpawin, University of Washington; environmental service projects) about when the forest-biodi- the University of New Hampshire; the International Center versity-hydrology links are likely to be important. for Tropical Agriculture; Andrew Nelson; Desi Suyamto, Ai Because the relationship between forest maintenance and Farida, Atiek Widayati, Pornwilai Saipothong, Betha Lusiana, biodiversity is sensitive to watershed scale, the project car- Ni’matul Khasanah, and Subekti Rahayu, ICRAF Southeast ried out a set of detailed investigations at three levels of scale Asia; and Didik Suprayogo, Brawijaya University, Indonesia. and detail: small watersheds in Southeast Asia; the Mekong The Bank-Netherlands Partnership Program contributed Basin and its tributaries; and the major basins of the trop- funding for the research. ics, on a global scale. This work relied on a nested suite of Project Code: P072962. hydrological simulation models with varying space-temporal Completion date: June 2005. resolution. The models divided the watershed into grid cells. Soils, vegetation, and precipitation were specifi ed for each Publications grid cell, and the models computed soil moisture, water use Costa-Cabrala, Mariza C., Jeffrey E. Richey, Gopi Gotetia, Den-

30 nis P. Lettenmaier, Christoph Feldkötter, and Anond Snid- It contributes about 20 percent of human-generated green- vongs. Forthcoming. “Landscape Structure and Use, Cli- house gases to the atmosphere, and is responsible for much mate, and Water Movement in the Mekong River Basin.” local environmental damage. However, forest clearing is of- Douglas, Ellen M., Kate Sebastian, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Stan- ten related to agricultural expansion and rural development. ley Wood, and Kenneth M. Chomitz. “The Role of Tropical How can society balance these costs and benefi ts? To answer Forests in Supporting Biodiversity and Hydrological Integ- this, the report looks at the relationship between deforesta- rity: A Synoptic Overview.” Policy Research Working Paper tion, poverty, and environmental damage; assesses who ben- 3635. World Bank, Washington, D.C. efi ts and who loses from deforestation; and examines existing Douglas, Ellen M., Stanley Wood, Kate Sebastian, Charles J. and proposed institutions that balance the interests of these Vörösmarty, Kenneth M. Chomitz, and Thomas P. Tomich. groups and bring about more equitable, effi cient, and sustain- 2007. “Policy Implications of a Pan-tropic Assessment of the able land uses. Principal conclusions include the following: Simultaneous Hydrological and Biodiversity Impacts of De- • Deforestation is mostly related to agricultural conver- forestation.” Water Resources Management 21: 211–32. sion and is not necessarily a cause or consequence Nelson, Andrew, and Kenneth M. Chomitz. Forthcoming. “The of poverty. Forest-Hydrology-Poverty Nexus in Central America: An • Forest poverty stems from remoteness and lack of Heuristic Analysis.” Environment, Development, and Sustain- rights. ability. And Policy Research Working Paper 3430. World • Road accessibility, especially in agriculturally favor- Bank, Washington, D.C. able areas, stimulates both deforestation and rural Sebastian, Kate, Ellen M. Douglas, Stanley Wood, and Charles J. development. Vörösmarty. “Searching for Synergy in Tropical Forest Eco- • Deforestation imposes geographically varied environ- system Services: Historic and Projected Land Cover Sce- mental damages. narios for Exploring Biodiversity and Watershed Function • A three-way typology of forests (mosaic lands, fron- Linkages.” http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/phase2/ifpri/ tiers, and areas beyond the frontier) captures much techreport/Act1_technical_report.pdf of the variation in the environmental and social chal- Thanapakpawin, P., J. Richey, D. Thomas, S. Rodda, B. Camp- lenges facing forests. bell, and M. Logsdon. 2007. “Effects of Land Use Change • Protected and indigenous areas are often surprisingly on the Hydrologic Regime of the Mae Chaem River Basin, effective in deterring deforestation. NW Thailand.” Journal of Hydrology 334(1-2): 215-30. • Economic instruments can, in theory, minimize van Noordwijk, M., F. Agus, B. Verbist, K. Hairiah, and T.P. To- the trade-offs between agriculture and forest mich. Forthcoming. “Managing Watershed Services in Eco- conservation. agriculture Landscapes.” In J. McNeely and S.J. Scherr, eds., • The carbon market could potentially fi nance forest The State-of-the-Art of Ecoagriculture. Island Press. conservation on a large scale and contribute to sustain- van Noordwijk, Meine, Jeffrey Richey, and David E. Thomas. able rural development. “Landscape and (Sub)Catchment Scale Modeling of Effects The report was published in October 2006 and has been of Forest Conversion on Watershed Functions and Biodi- widely disseminated. It was presented at the UN Frame- versity in Southeast Asia.” http://www.asb.cgiar.org/BNPP/ work Convention/Kyoto Protocol meetings in Nairobi (2006) phase2/sea/techreport/FVOBAct2_all_2.pdf. and in Washington, London, Paris, Brussels, Jakarta, Brasilia, Belém, São Paulo, Manaus, and Bangkok. An Economic Assessment of Agricultural Expansion and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural and Urban Deforestation in Tropics Team—Kenneth M. Chomitz ([email protected]). With Arild Angelsen and William Sunderlin (Center for In- This project supported production of the report At Logger- ternational Forestry Research), Piet Buys, Giacomo De Luca, heads? Agricultural Expansion, Poverty Reduction, and Environ- Dirk Kloss, Timothy S. Thomas, and Sheila Wertz-Kanoun- ment in the Tropical Forests. The report synthesized material nikoff. The project is supported in part by the Knowledge for relating to the causes and consequences of tropical deforesta- Change Program, the Trust Fund for Environmentally and tion and of forest poverty. Novel geographical analyses of the Socially Sustainable Development, and the German Consul- relationship between poverty, forests, and biodiversity were tant Trust Fund. undertaken and incorporated in the report. Project Code: P097194. Deforestation is a leading cause of global biodiversity loss. Completion date: June 2008.

31 Publications worldbank.org); and Africa Technical Families, Environmen- Angelsen, Arild. 2007. “Forest Cover Change in Space and Time: tally and Socially Sustainable Development 1—Aziz Bouza- Combining the von Thunen and Forest Transition Theo- her. With Environ Engineering and Management Consult, ries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4117. World Bank, Tema, Ghana; Forum One Communications, Alexandria, Vir- Washington, D.C. ginia; Benoît Laplante; Changhua Wu; and Jie He. Ghana’s Chomitz, Kenneth M., with Piet Buys, Giacomo De Luca, Environmental Protection Agency contributed data to the Timothy S. Thomas, and Sheila Wertz-Kanounnikoff. 2007. research. At Loggerheads? Agricultural Expansion, Poverty Reduction, Project Code: P086358. and Environment in the Tropical Forests. Washington, D.C.: Completion date: December 2005. World Bank. De Luca, Giacomo. 2007. “Roads, Development and Deforesta- Publication tion: A Review.” Wang, Hua. 2005. “Environmental Performance Rating and Pub- Sunderlin, William, Sonya Dewi, and Atie Puntodewo. 2007. lic Disclosure for Manufacturing and Mining Companies.” “Poverty and Forests: Multi-Country Analysis of Spatial As- Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, sociation and Proposed Policy Solutions.” D.C. Thomas, Timothy S. 2007. “A Global Analysis of Tropical For- ests from a Von Thünen Perspective.” Public Disclosure of Industrial Pollution in China ———. 2007. “A Primer for Bayesian Spatial Probits with an Ap- plication to Deforestation in Madagascar.” This research project aimed to determine whether programs Wertz-Kanounnikoff, Sheila, and Kenneth M. Chomitz. 2007. disclosing environmental performance could feasibly be es- “The Effect of Local Environmental Institutions on Smoke tablished in China, and whether such programs could pro- and Fire Problem Perception in Brazil.” vide effective incentives for industries to reduce pollution. In collaboration with Chinese environmental agencies, the Environmental Performance Rating and Disclosure in project helped establish and test pilot public disclosure pro- Ghana grams in several Chinese provinces. A formal regulation on environmental information disclosure was enacted by the Public disclosure of the environmental performance of regu- China State Environmental Protection Administration in lated entities has proved to be a powerful regulatory instru- April 2007. ment in both industrial and developing countries. In Africa, To investigate how successful these pilot programs have however, despite rapid urbanization and industrialization in been, interviews were conducted with Chinese environ- some countries, no public disclosure programs have been mental authorities and plant managers, and information on established. This project tested the feasibility and effec- pollution discharges was gathered and analyzed. The results tiveness of a public disclosure strategy for African countries showed that companies do respond to public disclosure pro- while accounting for specifi c social, cultural, and economic grams. Moreover, the cost of establishing and maintaining systems and values. such programs is modest. Ghana’s Environmental Protection Agency supported the The project has involved workshops, conference presen- project in establishing a pilot public disclosure program cov- tations, and meetings on the pilot program design in several ering manufacturing in Accra and Tema and mining indus- Chinese provinces. Project results have been presented in tries in Tarkwa. This effort involved developing an appro- China, Japan, Costa Rica, Ghana, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan; priate performance rating methodology based on experience and two special conferences on environmental information in other countries and data availability in Ghana; devising a disclosure were organized in China. disclosure strategy well suited to Ghana’s cultural, political, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- and socioeconomic environment; designing and implement- ral and Urban Development Unit—Hua Wang (hwang1@ ing the pilot program; assessing the effects of the program; worldbank.org). With David Wheeler, Susmita Dasgupta, and deriving lessons on how best to expand it on a national Genfa Lu, Yuan Wang, Jinnan Wang, Dong Cao, Guomei scale. The results suggest that establishing a disclosure pro- Zhou, Zhong Ma, Huaping Mu, Wanxin Li, Xinyuan Wang, gram in Ghana is feasible. Xiaohua Li, and Changhua Wu. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- Project Code: P077806. ral and Urban Development Unit—Hua Wang (hwang1@ Completion date: December 2006.

32 Publications velopment Consortium Conference, the University of Cali- Dasgupta, Susmita, Hua Wang, and David Wheeler. 2005. “Dis- fornia Trade and Environmental Economics Workshop, and closure Strategies for Pollution Control.” In Tom Tietenberg the World Bank Trade Seminar. and Henk Folmer, eds., International Yearbook of Environ- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- mental and Resource Economics, vol. 10. Cheltenham, England: ral and Urban Development Unit—Hua Wang (hwang1@ Edward Elgar. worldbank.org). With Syracuse University; and Shawei Chen. Wang, Hua, Jun Bi, David Wheeler, Jinnan Wang, Dong Cao, The U.S. International Trade Commission and Syracuse Uni- Genfa Lu, and Yuan Wang. 2004. “Environmental Perfor- versity contributed staff time. mance Rating and Disclosure: China’s Green-Watch Pro- Project Code: P081716. gram.” Journal of Environmental Management 71(2): 123–33. Completion date: December 2004.

Foreign Direct Investment and Pollution Havens Publication Dean, Judith M., Mary E. Lovely, and Hua Wang. 2005. “Are Much debate has been stirred up by the pollution haven Foreign Investors Attracted to Weak Environmental Regu- hypothesis—the contention that stringent environmental lations? Evaluating the Evidence from China.” Policy Re- regulation in industrial countries drives fi rms out of those search Working Paper 3505. World Bank, Washington, D.C. countries to establish plants in poor countries with more lax regulation. Although little econometric work has been done Urban Pollution: Measurement and Cost to test the hypothesis, empirical studies have suggested that there is no evidence to support it. But analytic weaknesses in This research project developed a method to quantify the earlier work suggest a need for more testing. level of particulate matter pollution in world cities and the This study, designed to overcome those weaknesses, economic losses associated with it. econometrically tested the pollution haven hypothesis by Polluted air is a major health hazard in developing coun- examining foreign direct investment fl ows into Chinese tries. But scarce public resources have limited the monitor- provinces, using a location choice model. Chinese data pres- ing of atmospheric particulate matter concentrations, despite ent an ideal test for the hypothesis: China has been the larg- their large potential health effects. As a result, policy-makers est recipient of foreign direct investment in the developing in many developing countries remain uncertain about the ex- world since 1990, the distribution of the investment across posure of their residents to particulate matter air pollution. provinces has been highly uneven, and environmental regu- The Global Model of Ambient Particulates (GMAPS) is an lations are implemented at the provincial level. attempt to bridge this information gap through an econo- The econometric model was derived from a well-specifi ed metrically estimated model for predicting particulate matter theoretical framework, incorporating a fi rm production and levels in world cities. abatement decision model, agglomeration, and the relative The project developed the GMAPS model that quanti- abundance of skilled labor. The model was estimated with fi es the relationships between particulate matter levels in conditional logit, using data on joint ventures, effective en- world cities and the level and intensity of economic activity, vironmental levies on water and air pollution as measures of population, and energy consumption and mix while account- environmental stringency, and estimates of Chinese emis- ing for city specifi c geo-climatic factors such as rainfall and sions and abatement costs at the industry level as measures wind speed. The model projected annual average ambient of pollution intensity. particulate matter concentrations for residential and non- The results showed that relatively high pollution levies residential areas in 3,226 world cities with populations larger deterred foreign direct investment from Hong Kong (China), than 100,000, as well as national capitals. Macao (China), and Taiwan (China). By contrast, they attract- The study found wide, systematic variations in ambient ed direct investment from OECD and other non-Chinese particulate matter concentrations, both across world cities economies—the reverse of the pollution haven hypothesis. and over time. Particulate matter concentrations have risen The results have been presented at Williams College, Cor- at a slower rate than total emissions. Overall emission levels nell University, the University of Maryland, the University have been rising, especially for poorer countries, at nearly 6 of Minnesota, American Economic Association meetings, percent per year. Particulate matter concentrations have not Econometric Society summer meetings, Midwest Interna- increased by as much, due to improvements in technology tional Economics meetings, the Northeast Universities De- and structural shifts in the world economy. Within-country

33 variations in particulate matter levels have diverged greatly centives for governments to improve their efforts in environ- (by a factor of 5 in some cases), because of the direct and mental conservation. The project applied the rating system indirect effects of geo-climatic factors. in selected cities and districts participating in the Bangun The data set is available at: Praja program, taking into consideration the presence of river http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXT- basins in choosing sites. DEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,contentMDK:20785646~pageP The system enhances water resource management by K:64214825~piPK:64214943~theSitePK:469382,00.html. improving the public’s access to critical information and in- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure creasing pressure on government authorities to improve their and Environment Team—David Wheeler(dwheeler@cgdev. performance. org), Kiran Dev Pandey, and Uwe Deichmann; and Envi- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- ronment Department—Katie Bolt and Kirk Hamilton. With ral and Urban Development Unit—Hua Wang (hwang1@ Bart Ostro. worldbank.org); and East Asia and Pacifi c Region, Urban De- Project Code: P076644. velopment Sector Unit—Risyana Sukarma. With the Center Completion date: June 2006. for Environmental Research, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia; Benoît Laplante; and Jie He. Indonesia’s Ministry Publication of Environment provided data. Pandey, Kiran Dev, David Wheeler, Bart Ostro, Uwe Deich- Project Code: P082287. mann, Kirk Hamilton, and Katie Bolt. 2007. “Ambient Par- Completion date: December 2005. ticulate Matter Concentrations in Residential and Pollution Hotspot areas of World Cities: New Estimates Based on the Publication Global Model of Ambient Particulates (GMAPS).” World Wang, Hua. 2005. “Strengthening Public Pressure for Environ- Bank, Washington, D.C. mental and Water Resources Protection in Indonesia.” Con- sultant Report, Development Research Group, World Bank, Strengthening Public Pressure for Environmental and Washington, D.C. Water Resource Protection in Indonesia Methods for Allocating Water among Competing Uses Most local authorities in developing countries have not allo- under Stochastic Supply Conditions cated suffi cient resources to improving water quality, despite the known economic and fi nancial benefi ts of such efforts. Cooperative game theory and negotiations are suitable ap- Although many factors contribute to this situation, critical proaches for handling water allocation issues, especially ones are lack of public pressure and lack of broad participa- where externalities exist and the number of parties involved tion in the public decision-making process. Earlier experi- is relatively small. Traditionally, applications of cooperative ence with schemes to publicly disclose environmental per- game theory to water resource problems have assumed a formance shows that lack of public pressure in turn results deterministic pattern of supply, an approach that has led to from insuffi cient access to information. This experience also allocation schemes that are somewhat limited in scope, sug- suggests that a formal system for ranking the performance gesting that some solution concepts are not possible. Yet wa- of local governments in protecting water resources can gen- ter resource investments and fl ow allocation are subject to erate strong incentives for them to invest in maintaining or stochastic water supply patterns that affect the performance, improving water quality. sustainability, and stability of any use and investment ar- This research project developed a comprehensive system rangement among users of the same source. of indicators to rate the performance of local governments This research project developed a stochastic, cooperative in Indonesia in protecting water resources and the environ- game theory framework with the aim of demonstrating how ment, and a strategy for disclosing the results to the public. stochastic considerations may change the solution, depend- The project designed a rating and disclosure system to work ing on the attitude toward risk aversion among potential through the Bangun Praja program, an initiative developed users and the cost function of the water project. However, by Indonesia’s Ministry of Environment to assist local gov- hierarchical and power relationships (such as control and ernments in building environmental management capacity. mandate) between parties may push allocation outcomes be- The system rates performance in a few categories that can yond those identifi ed by game theory solutions based on ra- be easily understood by the public and can provide clear in- tional behavior. Therefore, the study developed a stochastic,

34 cooperative game theory framework and a negotiation frame- Although the absolute results of the two approaches dif- work to address situations with and without hierarchical and fered, the negotiation and cooperative game theory pro- power relationships. The study applied these frameworks to vided similar shares of the benefi t allocated to the players watersheds in river basins in Bulgaria, including the Maritza from various cooperative arrangements. Evaluating the two Basin, to identify conditions under which cooperative alloca- approaches provided useful tips for future extensions of tion arrangements could yield sustainable solutions. both the Role-Playing Games and the Cooperative Game Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Depart- Theory applications. ment—Ariel Dinar ([email protected]) and Erick Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- Fernandes; and Europe and Central Asia Region, Environ- ral and Urban Development Team—Ariel Dinar (adinar@ mentally and Socially Sustainable Development Sector worldbank.org). With Fioravante Patrone, University of Unit—Rita Cestti. With Ilia Natchkov; Carmen Marchiori, Genoa; Stefano Farolfi , Center for Environmental Econom- London School of Economics; Ian Calder, University of ics and Policy for Africa, University of Pretoria, South Africa, Newcastle; Carlo Carraro, University of Venice; Alexandra and CIRAD, France; and Kate Rowntree, Rhodes University, Sgobbi, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice; and Fiora- South Africa. vante Patrone, University of Genoa. The government of Bul- Project Code: P091805. garia contributed river basin data. Completion date: June 2006. Project Code: P087312. Completion date: December 2004. Publications Dinar, A., S. Farolfi , F. Patrone, and K. Rowntree. 2006. “Water Al- Publications location Strategies for the Kat Basin in South Africa: Compar- Dinar, A., S. Moreti, F. Patrone, and S. Zara. 2006. “Application of ing Negotiation Tools and Game Theory Models.” Policy Re- Stochastic Cooperative Game Theory in Water Resources.” search Working Paper 4083. World Bank, Washington, D.C. In Renan Goetz and Dolors Braga, eds., New Frontiers in Wa- ______. Forthcoming. “To Negotiate or to Game Theorize: ter Resource Economics. Springer. Evaluating Water Allocation Mechanisms in the Kat Basin, Parrachino, I., A. Dinar, and F. Patrone. 2006. “Cooperative Game South Africa.” In A. Dinar, J. Albiac, and J. Sanchez-Soriano, Theory and Its Application to Natural, Environmental, and eds. Game Theory and Policy Making in Natural Resources and Water Resource Issues: Application to Water Resources.” the Environment. London: Routledge Publishing. Policy Research Working Paper 4074. World Bank, Washing- ton, D.C. Bangladesh Toxic Targeting: Identiﬁ cation of “Hot Zara, S., A. Dinar, and F. Patrone. 2006. “Cooperative Game Spots” for the Agriculture, Health, and Environmental Theory and Its Application to Natural, Environmental, and Agencies of Bangladesh Water Resource Issues: Application to Natural and Environ- mental Resources.” Policy Research Working Paper 4073. As in many developing countries, Bangladesh lacks suffi cient World Bank, Washington, D.C. information on pesticide use, even at the regional level. The identifi cation of hotspots or pesticide-intensive areas at the Cooperative Arrangements for Water Allocation under district level would aid policymakers and extension agents Competition among Water Use Sectors in targeting potential areas for designing and implementing training programs aimed at reducing dependence on toxic Governments and developing agencies promote participa- pesticides. tory approaches in solving common pool resource problems This research project prepared a Geographic Information such as in the water sector. Two main participatory approach- System-based tool for the identifi cation of areas (“hotspots”) es have been applied separately, namely negotiation and and specifi c crops where the application intensity of toxic mediation. This research project applied these approaches pesticides is concentrated in Bangladesh. The project meth- to a water allocation problem in the Kat watershed in South odology combined information from a recent World Bank Africa. The project used a role-playing game—a component farm-level pesticide use survey and Agricultural Census data of the Companion Modeling approach, a negotiation proce- from the Government of Bangladesh. First, the project used dure—and cooperative game theory (Shapley value and the the survey data to select a number of crops that were well- Nucleolus solution concepts), which could be mirrored as a known pesticide users (for example, rice, potatoes, cabbage, mediated mechanism. eggplant, beans; fruit, and mango) and important in Bangla-

35 desh agriculture. Second, for each crop, the project compiled and cleaning. The next steps are to analyze the data (March area (region, district) and quantity of production information 2007) and complete the data analysis (June 2008). from the Ministry of Agriculture. Third, for the each crop, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable the project compiled detailed information on the use of pes- Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta ticides, insecticides, fungicides, and herbicides, with their ([email protected]). With Subrata Ghosh, Deta underlying active ingredients. Fourth, the project linked the Consultants; and University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh data with a Geographic Information System and developed City, Vietnam. a tool for identifying areas and crops with intense pesticide Project Code: P093044. (hotspot) application rates. Fifth, it estimated absolute and Completion date: June 2006. risk-weighted pesticide use for 23 districts and prepared a hotspot analysis tool. Impact of Indoor Air Pollution on Children’s Health Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta The World Health Organization estimates that more than 1 ([email protected]). With Craig Meisner. million children die annually as a result of exposure to indoor Project Code: P089559. air pollution. This research project estimated the impacts of Completion date: September 2004. reducing exposure to indoor air pollution in the Guatema- lan highlands, where more than 400,000 children under the Publications age of 5 live in homes where open fi res are used for heating Dasgupta, Susmita, and Craig Meisner. 2004. “Methodol- and cooking, and pneumonia is the leading cause of death ogy for Identifying Pesticide Hotspots: The Case of of children in this age group. The goal of the project was to Bangladesh.” Mimeo. estimate the potential benefi ts, in terms of reduced mortal- Meisner, Craig. 2004. “Report of Pesticide Hotspots in Bangla- ity and morbidity from acute lower respiratory infection, of desh.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. replacing open fi res with improved stoves. Studies have suggested that 24-hour average concentra- Evaluation of the Integrated Pest Management: tions of particulate matter may reach 1000-2000 micrograms Environmental and Social Safeguard Directive - East per cubic meter of air in homes in the Guatemalan highlands Asia (Vietnam) where open fi res are used for heating and cooking. These concentrations were compared with indoor concentrations of In light of the importance of agriculture and the increasing 200 micrograms per cubic meter of air, which, in theory, could use of pesticides in Vietnam, concerns of the sustainability be achieved by using a well-maintained improved stove. of chemically-based pest control techniques have prompted The project estimated that the reduction in indoor par- a widespread introduction of integrated pest management ticulate matter concentrations would result in approximately (IPM), an ecologically-based approach to control of harmful 24,000 fewer cases of acute lower respiratory infection an- insects and weeds. IPM is intended to reduce the ecological nually and 1,000 fewer deaths due to pneumonia among the and health damage from chemical pesticides by using natural children exposed to indoor air pollution. parasites and predators to control pest populations. How- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural and Urban ever, so far, the lack of data has hindered a full accounting of Team—Maureen L. Cropper ([email protected]). integrated pest management’s relative impact on farm profi t- With Alejandra Palma, Kulsum Ahmed, Yewande Awe, Doug- ability, health, and local ecosystems. This project draws on las Barnes, and Masami Kojima. new survey data in Vietnam to close the gap. Project Code: P027270. This project has two objectives. First, it will analyze the Completion date: May 2005. proliferation of integrated pest management at the village/ hamlet level using secondary data in three provinces of Me- Publication kong Delta. Second, through a farm-level survey on yield and Ahmed, Kulsum, Yewande Awe, Douglas Barnes, Maureen Crop- input use for 600 rice farms in Mekong Delta, it will compare per, and Masami Kojima. 2005. Environmental Health and Tra- the productivity, profi tability, and health impacts of chemical- ditional Fuel Use in Guatemala. Washington, DC: World Bank. based and IPM agriculture (under individual IPM adoption as well as through community collective-action). To date the project has completed the data collection

36 The Economics of Pesticide Contamination in Bangladesh Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, and David Wheeler. 2007. “Is Environmentally-Friendly Agriculture Less Profitable Indiscriminate use and inappropriate handling of chemi- for Farmers? Evidence on Integrated Pest Management in cal pesticides in agriculture have caused serious health and Bangladesh.” Review of Agricultural Economics 29(1): 103-18. environmental problems in many developing countries. To control pesticide hazards effectively, policy-makers need to Improving Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: Proposal understand issues underlying the use of pesticides, includ- for a Controlled Experiment in Bangladesh ing institutional incentives; the comparative economics of safe alternatives; the dynamics and determinants of farmers’ The World Health Organization’s Global and Regional Bur- choices; the availability of information on risks, safe handling, den of Disease Report (2004) estimated that acute respiratory and alternatives. Additionally relevant are the perceptions of infections from indoor air pollution (pollution from burning these risks among wholesalers, retailers, and users as are the wood, animal dung, and other bio-fuels, kill a million chil- gaps in knowledge about appropriate application and related dren annually in developing countries, infl icting a particu- externalities. This research project examined these critical larly heavy toll on poor families in South Asia (42 percent issues by drawing on survey and interview results from Ban- of total deaths) and Africa (28 percent). Although the health gladesh. The project also took a full-account of integrated effects of indoor air pollution are severe, to date the design pest management (IPM), an ecologically based alternative to of cost-effective pollution reduction strategies has been hin- chemical pesticide on production costs and profi tability. dered by lack of information about actual indoor air quality in The analysis used a range of analytical methods: input-use poor households. Data have been scarce because monitoring accounting and conventional production function estimation in village environments is diffi cult and costly. for integrated pest management; tri-variate probit models This research project has conducted 24-hour indoor moni- with health effects, misperception of pesticide risks, and the toring in a set of controlled experiments in Bangladesh. The potential overuse of pesticides; and bi-variate probit models experiments were confi ned to structural arrangements (build- for health impairment and pesticide trader perceptions. The ing materials, cooking locations, window/ door confi gurations, fi ndings are immediately applicability in Bangladesh, where etc.) and fuels (kerosene, fi rewood/twigs/leaves, agricultural data on pesticide use in agriculture are scarce. residues, and cow dung) that are common among poor house- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable holds in Bangladesh. The objectives of the research project Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta were to investigate the potential of “clean household” pro- ([email protected]). With Mainul Huq; Craig Meis- grams—variations in construction materials, space confi gura- ner; Nlandu Mamingi, University of West Indies; and Subrata tions, cooking locations, and use of doors and windows—and Ghosh, Deta Consultants. their cost effectiveness for mitigation of indoor air pollution Project Code: P082454. in rural areas. Completion date: June 2005. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta Publications ([email protected]) and David Wheeler. With Sub- Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, and Mainul Huq. 2005. rata Ghosh, Deta Consultants; Pritthijit Kundu; Mainul Huq; “Health Effects and Pesticide Perception as Determinants and M. Khaliquzzaman. of Pesticide Use: Evidence from Bangladesh.” Policy Re- Project Code: P093601. search Working Paper 3776. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Completion date: June 2007. ______. 2007. “A Pinch or a Pint? Evidence of Pesticide Over- use in Bangladesh.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 58(1): The State of the Global Carbon Market 91-114. Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, and Nlandu Mamingi. 2005. Recording project-based transactions in the global carbon “Pesticide Traders Perception of Health Risks: Evidence market is becoming more diffi cult every year because the from Bangladesh.” Policy Research Working Paper 3777. number of transactions and the diversity of players involved World Bank, Washington, D.C. are increasing dramatically. ______. 2006. “Pesticide Traders Perception of Health Risks: The main objectives of this research project were to inves- Evidence from Bangladesh.” Asian-African Journal of Eco- tigate the various segments of the global carbon market and nomics and Econometrics 6(1): 71-86. their interactions. In addition, the study identifi ed the most

37 notable trends in the market. A signifi cant part of the research fi ce, Environment and NRM Team), Mahua Acharya (Envi- project was devoted to data collection, through interviews of ronment Department, Carbon Finance Team). With Richard market players and a survey of carbon-related information, to Rosenzweig, Rob Youngman, and Heather McGeory, Nat- update the confi dential project-based transaction database. source; Andrew Ertel and Jason Patrick, Evolution Markets. The fi ndings showed that in the fi rst three quarters of Project Code: P070614. 2006, the carbon market grew in value to an estimated $21.5 Completion date: October 2006. billion, more than doubling in value over the $10 billion recorded in 2005. Volumes transacted also increased to some Publications 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent during the fi rst Capoor, K., and P. Ambrosi. 2006. “State and Trends of the Car- three quarters of the year, a comparatively slower rate of bon Markets – A Focus on Africa.” World Bank, Carbon Fi- growth than the 700 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent nance Unit, Washington, D.C. traded in 2005 (an increase of 5.6 times over 2004). Project- ———. 2006. “State and Trends of the Carbon Markets – Update based transactions over the period represented one-fourth of 3Q’06.” World Bank, Carbon Finance Unit, Washington, D.C. global volume (compared with roughly one-half in 2005) and ———. 2006. “State and Trends of the Carbon Markets – 2006.” slightly more than one-tenth of global value (compared with World Bank, Carbon Finance Unit, Washington, D.C. about one-fourth in 2005). Average prices on the project- Lecocq, F., and P. Ambrosi. 2007. “The Clean Development based market (essentially, the primary Clean Development Mechanism: History, Status, and Prospects.” Review of Envi- Mechanism, or CDM, market) rose from about $7/tonne in ronmental Economics and Policy 1(1): 134-51. 2005 to $10/tonne in 2006. China and India continued to dominate the CDM market with 60 and 15 percent market Understanding and Improving the Environmental share, respectively. Performance of Township-Village Industrial Enterprises The project concluded that credible constraints, transpar- in China ent price discovery, and fl exible compliance instruments can send a clear signal to dynamic, private efforts to mitigate cli- This research project investigated the determinants of the mate change. Capital markets have responded to these signals, environmental performance of township-village industrial making carbon a new commodity and tightening the links enterprises in China. The project surveyed township govern- between the energy, environmental, and fi nancial markets. ment leaders, plant managers, workers in township-village Project fi ndings were presented at the following confer- industrial enterprises, and households, and performed econo- ences and workshops: a side event organized by the World metric analyses of the data collected. It also involved estab- Bank at COP/MOP 2 (Nairobi, Kenya); and Carbon Expo lished pilot environmental councils in Chinese townships to 2006, a Carbon business fair for leading greenhouse gas mar- test a collaborative model of community self-regulation. ket players with the support of the World Bank and the Inter- The analyses produced several fi ndings. First, the en- national Emissions Trading Association (IETA). vironmental performance of township-village industrial The project produced a report for the State and Trends enterprises surpassed that of state-owned enterprises. Sec- of the Carbon Markets report series (initiated by ENVCF in ond, both inspection and community dialogue have created 2001). After its release at CarbonExpo, the report received incentives for enterprises to improve their environmental a wide press coverage – both in general newspapers and fi - performance. Third, negotiation has existed in regulatory en- nancial and Carbon industry-related publications. It was also forcement. And fourth, stakeholders often have had different cited and quoted in a number of institutional and academic understandings of local environmental issues. publications. In 2006, it was downloaded more than 15,000 The project fi ndings have been presented at numerous times. The report has been extensively used for capacity- workshops in China; the Third World Congress of Environ- building workshops on carbon fi nance organized by the Car- mental and Resource Economics (2006); and the Qingdao bon Finance Unit at the World Bank and the World Bank Conference of Environmental Economics and Policy. Institute. It has also proved to be a useful tool for deals man- Responsibility: Development Research Group—Hua Wang agers at the World Bank Carbon funds. ([email protected]) and Susmita Dasgupta. With Da- Responsibility: South Asia Sustainable Development, Environ- vid Wheeler, Nlandu Mamingi, Benoît Laplante, Wenhua Di, ment Unit—Charles Cormier ([email protected]) and Yanhong Jin, Jie He, Jun Bi, and Fengzhong Cao. Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team—Philippe Project Code: P065614. Ambrosi, Karan Capoor (Sustainable Development Front Of- Completion date: June 2006.

38 Publications Capital Markets and Environmental Performance: Wang, Hua. 2007. “Stakeholder Dialogue: A New Approach for Evidence from South Korea Sustainable Development in China.” Development Re- search Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project investigated the role that capital mar- Wang, Hua, and Yanhong Jin. 2006. “Industrial Ownership and kets can play to induce enterprises to invest in their environ- Environmental Performance: Evidence from China.” Envi- mental performance. In addition, it provided policy-makers ronmental and Resource Economics. with clear guidelines on the impact of information on environmental performance of enterprises via capital markets. Understanding and Improving Environmental Governance Since 1989, environmental authorities in South Korea in Developing Countries have published on a monthly basis a list of enterprises violat- ing the country’s environmental rules and regulations. Dur- This research project is studying environmental governance ing 1993-2001, in excess of 7,000 violation events, involving in developing countries and exploring how it could be im- more than 3,400 different companies, were recorded in these proved. The project is collecting and analyzing information monthly violation lists. The project examined the reaction of about environmental governance in various countries; testing investors to the publication of these monthly environmental new instruments, such as environmental information disclo- violations lists. The event-study analysis revealed that enter- sure and community environmental dialogue; and summariz- prises appearing on these lists have experienced a signifi cant ing and disseminating experiences and results. decline in their market valuation. Preliminary fi ndings show that information disclosure can The project also analyzed the impact of environmental be an effective strategy for almost all countries, stakeholder news in print media on the environmental performance of dialogue can be a feasible and effective approach in China, fi rms. It used multivariate probit estimation with primary and decentralization works with conditions. data from industrial facilities in South Korea. The results in- Project fi ndings were presented at conferences in Qingdao, dicated that the publication of negative environmental news China (July 2006) and Beijing, China (March 2007). about fi rms in print media and the awareness of fi rms about Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- the publication were important predictors of the environ- ral and Urban Development Team—Hua Wang (hwang1@ mental performance of the fi rms. The fi ndings thus reem- worldbank.org), Susmita Dasgupta, and Peishen Wang. With phasized the important role of media in infl uencing fi rms’ ENSR; Policy Research Center of SEPA; Education Center environmental performance. of SEPA; and Nanjing University. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Project Code: P101452. Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta Completion date: June 2010. ([email protected]). With Jong Ho Hong, Hanyang University; Benoit Laplante; Craig Meisner; and Nlandu Ma- Publications mingi, University of West Indies. Roumasset, James, Kimberly Burnett, and Hua Wang. Forth- Project Code: P077423. coming. “Environmental Resources and Economic Growth Completion date: December 2005. in China.” In Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds. China’s Great Transformation: Origins, Mechanisms, and Conse- Publications quences of the Post-Reform Economic Boom. Cambridge: Cam- Dasgupta, Susmita, Jong Ho Hong, Benoit Laplante, and Nlan- bridge University Press. du Mamingi. 2004. “Disclosure of Environmental Violations Wang, Hua. 2007. “Stakeholder Dialogue: A New Approach for and the Stock Market in the Republic of Korea.” Policy Re- Sustainable Development in China.” Development Re- search Working Paper 3344. World Bank, Washington, D.C. search Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. ______. Forthcoming. “Disclosure of Environmental Vio- Wu, Changhua, and Hua Wang. 2007. “China: Seeking Mean- lations and Stock Market in the Republic of Korea.” ingful Decentralization to Achieve Sustainability.” In Albert Ecological Economics. Breton, Giorgio Brosio, Silvana Dalmazzone, and Giovanna Mamingi, Nlandu, Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, and Jong Garrone, eds. Environmental Governance and Decentralization: Ho Hong. 2006. “Firms’ Environmental Performance: Does Country Studies. Cheltenham: Elgar. News Matter?” Policy Research Working Paper 3888. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

39 Finance and Banking

Finance Research Program FY 2005-2007 vary signifi cantly across countries – from emphasis on powerful offi cial supervision for enhancing corporate governance The fi nance research program for 2005 to 2007 was organized of banks to strengthening disclosure requirements and legal around two broad areas: access to fi nancial services, and fi - liabilities of bank directors and auditors to thus foster the ca- nance for the poor. The fi rst is a crucial part of the investment pacity of private agents to monitor banks. Third, research tries climate facing fi rms and households; the second directly ad- to understand the process of foreign bank participation and dressed the empowerment aspects of poverty. Work also its implications for developing countries. Fourth, the project continued on fi nance, growth and stability, bank supervision, analyzed the resolution of corporate fi nancial distress. foreign entry, and failure resolution. Policy Research Report on Access to Finance Access to Financial Services Signifi cant research has investigated the links between Research on access to fi nancial services studied small and access to fi nance and growth and poverty alleviation using medium enterprises; developed indicators of access to fi nan- micro data. Especially with the impetus of the Year of Micro- cial services; conducted a case study of corporate governance; Credit, more emphasis has been given to access to fi nance fi rm valuation, and access to fi nance in Russia; studied access as part of the overall development agenda by international to foreign debt fi nancing and access to foreign equity fi nanc- agencies, and the development community. Project fi ndings ing; and analyzed the costs of raising fi nance in debt and eq- have been presented at the fi rst United Nations conference uity markets. on the Year of Micro-credit (2005), and a conference on En- Finance for the Poor try, Entrepreneurship, and Financial Development was orga- Work on fi nancial sector policy and the poor attempted to nized with the Berkley Center for Entrepreneurial Studies identify and clarify the major dimensions of fi nancial sector and the New York University Stern Global Business Institute policy as it affects the poor at a conceptual level, summariz- (January 2005). ing existing fi ndings and exploring available data and poten- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Pri- tial for future research. Research on pro-poor innovations by vate Sector Team—Asli Demirguc-Kunt (ademirguc-Kunt@ microfi nance institutions evaluated the impact of some new worldbank.org). With Thorsten Beck, Robert Cull, Xavier fi nancial products by microfi nance institutions. Work on the Gine, Patrick Honohan, Leora Klapper, Inessa Love, David impact of institutions and government policies on microfi - McKenzie, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Bilal Husnain Zia, nance institutions sought to understand the reasons for the L. Colin Xu, Sergio Schmukler, Luc Laeven, Stijn Claessens, success and failure of microfi nance institutions given their Enrica Detragiache, and George Clarke. With Raghu Rajan, varied performance. Finally, research on the determinants University of Chicago; Meghana Ayyagari, George Wash- of entrepreneurship and escaping poverty studied entrepre- ington University; Jim Barth, Auburn University; F. Buera, neurship to gain a better understanding of its determinants Northwestern University; Jerry Caprio, Williams College; because often households need to exercise their own entre- Bernard Black, University of Texas; Edward Kane, Boston preneurial abilities to escape poverty. A database was cre- College; Dean Karlan, Yale University; Asim Ijaz Khawaja, ated with existing household surveys harmonizing fi nancial Harvard University; S. Klonner, Cornell University; Christian information for 45 developing countries to examine house- Leuz, University of Chicago; Ross Levine, Brown University; hold factors that distinguish entrepreneurs. The underlying Vojislav Maksimovic, University of Maryland; Atif Mian, Uni- surveys came from the Microdata for Financial Studies data- versity of Chicago; Jonathan Murdoch, New York University; base, which contains data from 111 household surveys from George Panos, University of Aberdeen; R. Townsend, Uni- 45 developing and transition countries in selected years over versity of Chicago; J. Vickery, Federal Reserve Bank of New the 1990s. Analysis of this data is on-going. York; Chris Woodruff, University of California, San Diego; Continuing Work on Finance, Growth, and Stability Peter Wysocki, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; D. First, work continues on the broad range of issues related Yang, University of Michigan; Reena Aggarwal, Georgetown to the relationship between fi nance and growth. Second, the University; and Andrei Rachinsky, University of Texas. project studied the effects of bank regulation and supervision Project Code: P08138. on access, effi ciency, and fragility. Supervisory approaches Completion date: June 2007.

40 Publications Black, Bernard, Inessa Love, and Andrei Rachinsky. 2005. “Cor- Aggarwal, Reena, Leora Klapper, and Peter Wysocki. 2006. porate Governance and Firms’ Market Values: Time Series “Portfolio Preferences of Foreign Institutional Investors.” Evidence form Russia.” Working Paper 66. University of Journal of Banking and Finance 29(12): 2919-46. Texas School of Law. Allayanis, George, Gregory W. Brown, and Leora Klapper. 2005. Caprio, Gerard, and Patrick Honohan. 2004. “Can the Unsophis- “Legal Effectiveness and External Capital: The Role of ticated Market Provide Discipline?” In William C. Hunter, Foreign Debt.” Policy Research Working Paper 3530. World George G. Kaufman, Claudio Borio, and Kostas Tsatsaronis, Bank, Washington, D.C. eds. Market Discipline across Countries and Industries. Cam- Barth, James, Gerard Caprio, and Ross Levine. 2006. Re- bridge, MA: MIT Press. thinking Bank Regulation: Till Angels Govern. Cambridge ______. 2005. “Starting Over Safely: Rebuilding Banking University Press. Systems.” In Gerard Caprio, James A. Hanson, and Rob- Beck, Thorsten, and Asli Demirguc-Kunt. 2006. “Small ert E. Litan, eds. Financial Crises: Lessons from the Past, and Medium-Size Enterprises: Access to Finance as a Preparation for the Future. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Growth Constraint.” Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11, Institution Press. November): 2931-43. Claessens, Stijn, and Leora Klapper. 2005. “Bankruptcy around Beck, Thorsten, Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt, Luc Laeven, and Vojislav the World: Explanations of Its Relative Use.” American Law Maksimovic. 2006. “The Determinants of Financing Obsta- and Economics Review 7(spring): 253-83. cles.” Journal of International Money and Finance 25(6, Octo- ______. 2006. “Insolvency Laws around the World – A Statis- ber): 932-52. tical Analysis and Rules for their Design.” CESifo Dice Re- Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2004. port 4(1): 9-15. “Finance, Inequality and Poverty: Cross-Country Evi- Cull, Robert, Lance E. Davis, Naomi R. Lamoreaux, and Jean- dence.” Policy Research Working Paper 3338. World Bank, Laurent Rosenthal. 2006. “Historical Financing of Small- Washington, D.C. and Medium-Size Enterprises.” Journal of Banking and Fi- ______. 2005. “Law and Firms’ Access to Finance.” American nance 30(11, November): 3017-42. Law and Economics Review 7(1): 211-52. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Inessa Love, and Vojislav Maksimo- ______. 2005. “SMEs, Growth, and Poverty: Cross-Coun- vic. 2006. “Business Environment and the Incorpora- try Evidence.” Journal of Economic Growth 10(3, tion Decision.” Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11, September): 197-227. November): 2967-93. Beck, Thorsten, Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksi- Garcia-Herrero, Alicia, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2005. movic. 2005. “Financial and Legal Constraints to Firm “The Mix of International Banks’ Foreign Claims: Deter- Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?” Journal of Finance 60(1, minants and Implications.” Policy Research Working Paper February): 137-77. 3755. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ______. 2006. “The Influence of Financial and Legal Institu- Giné, X., and D. Karlan. 2006. “Group versus Individual Liabil- tions and Firm Size.” Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11, ity: A Field Experiment in the Philippines.” Policy Research November): 2995-3015. Working Paper 4008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Beck, Thorsten, and Ross Levine. 2005. “Legal Institutions and Giné, X., P. Jakiela, D. Karlan, and J. Morduch. 2006. “Microfi- Financial Development.” In Claude Menard and Mary Shir- nance Games.” Policy Research Working Paper 3959. World ley, eds. Handbook of New Institutional Economics. The Neth- Bank, Washington, D.C. erlands: Kluwer Dordrecht. Giné, Xavier, and Inessa Love. 2006. “Do Reorganization Costs Beck, Thorsten, Mattias Lundberg, and Giovanni Majnoni. Matter for Efficiency? Evidence from a Bankruptcy Reform 2006. “Financial Intermediary Development and Growth in Colombia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3970. World Volatility: Do Intermediaries Dampen or Magnify Shocks?” Bank, Washington, D.C. Journal of International Money and Finance 25. Harrison, Ann E., Inessa Love, and Margaret McMillan. 2004. Berger, Allen N., and Gregory F. Udell. 2006. “A More Complete “Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints.” Journal Conceptual Framework for SME Finance.” Journal of Bank- of Development Economics 75(1): 269-301. ing and Finance 30(11, November): 2945-66. Honohan, Patrick, and Luc Laeven, eds. 2005. Systemic Financial Biggs, Tyler, and Manju Shah. 2006. “African SMEs, Networks, Distress: Containment and Resolution. New York: Cambridge and Manufacturing Performance.” Journal of Banking and University Press. Finance 30(11, November): 3043-66. Klapper, Leora. 2006. “The Role of Reverse Factoring in Sup-

41 plier Financing of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises.” ———. 2004. “Financial Sector Policy and the Poor: Selected Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11, November): 3111-30. Issues and Evidence.” Policy Research Working Paper 43. Love, Inessa, and Lea Ziccino. 2006. “Financial Develop- World Bank, Washington, D.C. ment and Dynamic Investment Behaviour: Evidence from ———. 2004. “Inequality and Poverty.” Journal of Economic Per- Panel VAR.” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance spectives 18(2): 271-72. 46: 190-210. ———. 2005. “Measuring Microfinance Access: Building on Ex- isting Cross-Country Data.” Policy Research Working Paper Financial Sector Policy and the Poor 3606. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

This research project sought to identify and clarify the major Financial Market Stability dimensions of fi nancial sector policy as it affects the poor. As such, the work bridged previous extensive research on This project developed earlier work in key areas of fi nancial the fi nancial sector impact on growth and stability on the sector policy related to stability. The project analyzed three one hand, and policy on the management of microfi nance issues: (i) the potential for market discipline to reduce bank- institutions on the other. Thus, the research asked whether ing risks in low-income countries; (ii) the role of endogenous mainstream fi nancial sector policy needs to be adapted in or- deposit dollarization in infl uencing fi nancial development der to accommodate and best promote the specifi c goals of and banking risk; and (iii) the merits of alternative strategies poverty reduction. for recapitalizing insolvent banking systems. In addition to carefully reviewing and distilling lessons In each case the methodology included a careful state- from the extant literature on fi nance and poverty from this ment of the conceptual issues involved, combined (in two new perspective, the research assembled available cross- instances) with cross-country regression analysis and a quan- country data for a preliminary econometric assessment of the tifi ed description of the main features in a large number of cross-country link between fi nancial sector development and countries. Empirical discussion in the third instance was poverty, the determinants of microfi nance growth, and the based on fi ve country case studies. economies of scale in microfi nance. Among the most striking fi ndings was the discovery that The fi ndings showed that fi nance-intensive economic pre-conditions for reliance on market discipline (relative to growth appears to be associated with lower poverty, even af- offi cial intervention) in keeping banking safe and sound may ter conditioning on the mean income of the non-rich. This be present to a greater degree in low-income countries than was a new result, and it was in line with other econometric elsewhere. The research showed that deposit dollarization fi ndings that focused on the changes in poverty and the in- may be problematic for stability, without helping fi nancial come of the poor. Furthermore, there was a slight tendency development. However, this fi nding did not argue for the re- for microfi nance to be more developed in poor countries, and introduction of controls against dollarization – which would in countries where mainstream fi nance had tight margins. be largely ineffective or counterproductive. The research contributed to bringing anti-poverty issues This research has heightened awareness of the potential into mainstream fi nancial sector policy. It also provided a ma- of specifi c policy tools in dealing with banking stability. jor advance in associated measurement issues and has con- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Pri- tributed to raising awareness of these issues in the fi nancial vate Sector Development Team—Patrick Honohan (Phono- policy community. [email protected]). With Gerard Caprio. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Pri- Project Code: P086233. vate Sector Development Team—Patrick Honohan (Phono- Completion date: June 2005. [email protected]). Project Code: P086229. Publications Completion date: June 2005. Caprio, Gerard, and Patrick Honohan. 2004. “Can the Unso- phisticated Market Provide Discipline?” Policy Research Publications Working Paper 3364. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Revised Honohan, Patrick. 2004. “Financial Development, Growth and version published in Claudio Borio, William curt Hunter, Poverty: How Close Are the Links?” In Charles Goodhart, George Kaufman, and Kostas Tsatsaronis, eds., Market Disci- ed., Financial Development and Economic Growth: Explaining pline across Countries and Industries. MIT Press (2004). the Links. London: Palgrave. De Nicoló, Gianni, Patrick Honohan, and Alain Ize. 2005. “Dol-

42 larization of Bank Deposits: Causes and Consequences” the group structure facilitates the performance of group- Journal of Banking and Finance. 29(7): 1697-1727. based lending is key to judging the sustainability and fi nan- Honohan, Patrick. 2005. “Fiscal, Monetary and Incentive Impli- cial prospects of these programs. cations of Bank Recapitalization.” In Patrick Honohan and This research project addressed two central questions: Is Luc Laeven, eds., Systemic Financial Crises: Containment and it the group design or the program design that matters for Resolution. Cambridge University Press. the loan repayment rates of micro-credit programs? And if Honohan, Patrick, and Luc Laeven. 2005. “Introduction and the joint liability hypothesis is valid, how can the effect of Overview.” In Patrick Honohan and Luc Laeven, eds., Sys- the group on loan recovery be estimated? The analysis used temic Financial Crises: Containment and Resolution. Cambridge time-series information on loan repayment by members of University Press. 200 or so groups of Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank in the time since those members joined the groups. The project assessed Does Regulation Lead to Informal Credit? how group dynamics (including group cohesion) affected the probability of default for group members and how large This research project aimed to expand understanding of the that effect was. Panel data analysis was used to resolve in- link between the business environment and fi rm fi nancing dividual or group-level heterogeneity and to identify any choices, and the spillover effects of poor governance and reg- “group effect.” ulation on fi nancial markets. The project looked at informal The results confi rmed that joint liability has indeed a fi nance from the demand side of fi nancial markets. strong negative effect on loan delinquencies of the Grameen Enterprises may forgo formal fi nance in lieu of informal Bank. There was less credit risk for women than for men, and credit sources by choice. The reason they do so is to avoid the women’s groups were more similar than men’s. The benefi ts additional regulatory scrutiny and harassment that engaging of social capital outweighed the costs of possible group col- with the formal fi nancial sector might invite. The project lusion with homogenous groups among women. In contrast, tested this hypothesis using enterprise level data on approxi- possible risk-pooling in a diverse group like the men’s groups mately 3,500 enterprises in 29 countries. helped increase men’s loan repayment rates. The fi ndings showed that the likelihood of enterprises Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and relying exclusively on informal fi nance for their operations Economic Management Division—Shahidur Khandker was decreasing in the quality of the regulatory environment, ([email protected]). particularly in the quality of tax administration and overall Project Code: P079623. governance. For example, the research showed that if tax in- Completion date: September 2005. spectors had asked an enterprise for bribes, the enterprise was 17 percent more likely to choose informal fi nance. Publication The project underscored the deleterious effects of poor gov- Khandker, Shahidur R., and Mark M. Pitt. 2007. “Individual ernance and an unfavorable regulatory environment. and Group Default Incentives in Microfinance: The Role of Responsibility: Monitoring Analysis and Policy Group, IFC— Groups in Grameen Bank.” World Bank Institute, Washing- Simeon Djankov ([email protected]). With Joshua ton, D.C. Draft. Wimpey, James Madison University. Project Code: P105051. Testing the Effectiveness of Group vs. Individual Completion date: August 2007. Liability

Individual and Group Default Incentives in Microﬁ nance Some claim that group liability was the key innovation that led to the explosion of the micro-credit movement. By pro- Since the advent of microfi nance programs, researchers have viding incentives for peers to screen, monitor, and enforce been trying to fi nd out what makes these programs success- each other’s loans, group liability improved repayment rates ful in expanding outreach, recovering loans, reducing pov- and lowered transaction costs in lending to the poor. Oth- erty, and the like. One issue that has drawn growing attention ers argue that group liability creates excessive pressure and is the group phenomenon of these group-based programs, in discourages good clients from borrowing, jeopardizing both which joint liability creates an incentive for members of a growth and sustainability. Therefore, it remains unclear group to monitor and enforce one another’s loan obligations. whether group liability improves the lender’s overall profi t- A precise understanding of the mechanisms through which ability and poor people’s access to fi nancial markets.

43 This research project worked with a bank in the Philip- panel survey for El Salvador, the fi rst case study examines pines to conduct a fi eld experiment to examine these issues. the effect of a household receiving remittances on: (i) the Working with 169 previously formed group liability centers probability that the household has a bank deposit account, of approximately 20 women, the project converted half to (ii) the likelihood that the household has an outstanding individual-liability centers (treatment) and kept the other loan, and (iii) the probability that it has applied for a loan in half as-is with group liability (control). After one year, there a given period. was no increase in defaults; there was higher outreach due to The second case study focuses on Mexico. Combining more new clients joining the treatment groups. municipality-level information from the 2000 Mexican Cen- In further research with the same lender, the project test- sus with data from the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Va- ed whether the individual liability model would perform as lores, the study examines the impact of remittances on four well when groups were initially formed under individual li- measures of fi nancial development across Mexican munici- ability. In addition, the project introduced a hybrid design palities: (i) the amount of commercial bank deposits to GDP, in which centers started as group liability but were told that (ii) the number of commercial bank deposit accounts per conditional on successful repayment, they would convert to capita, (iii) the amount of commercial bank loans outstand- individual liability in the future. The project fi ndings sug- ing to GDP, and (iv) the number of commercial branches gest that an expansion of individual lending products (or in per capita. some cases, shifting from group liability to individual liabil- Financial development has been shown to promote faster ity) should help deepen outreach and provide more fl exible growth and to lower poverty. By examining the link between microfi nance products for the poor. remittances and fi nancial development, this research project Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance Team— will help uncover a potential new channel through which re- Xavier Giné ([email protected]). With Dean Karlan, Yale mittances can affect the economies that receive these fl ows. University and Innovations for Poverty Action. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance Team— Project Code: P086550. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt ([email protected]) and Completion date: April 2007. Soledad Martinez Peria. With Christopher Woodruff and Noemi Soledad Lopez. Publications Project Code: P100513. Gine, X., T. Harigaya, D. Karlan, and B.T. Nguyen. 2006. “Eval- Completion date: June 2008. uating Microfinance Program Innovation with Randomized Control Trails: An Example from Group Versus Individual Barriers to Banking Lending.” http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Re- sources/Evaluating_Microfinance_program_Innovation_ Theory suggests that fi nancial market frictions or barriers that with_Randomized_Control_Trails_An_Example_from_ prevent broad access can be a critical mechanism for generat- Group_Versus_Individual_Lending.pdf. ing persistent income inequality or poverty traps. However, Gine, X., and D. Karlan. 2007. “Group versus Individual Liabil- the data on who has access to which fi nancial services remain ity: A Field Experiment in the Philippines.” working paper. thin and inadequate. This research project contributes to http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/Group_ closing this gap in the literature. Using information from 209 versus_Individual_Liability_A_Field_Experiment_in_the_ banks in 62 countries, the project is developing new indica- Philippines.pdf. tors of barriers to banking services around the world, showing their correlation with existing measures of outreach, and ex- Remittances and Financial Development ploring their association with other bank and country characteristics suggested by theory as potential determinants. Remittances to developing countries have become the sec- The analysis shows that barriers to banking are lower in ond largest type of fi nancial fl ow after foreign direct invest- economically and fi nancially developed economies. Barri- ment. Yet researchers have given little attention to the ques- ers are also negatively correlated with fi nancial outreach and tion of whether remittances promote fi nancial development positively correlated with fi nancing obstacles as reported by and the use of fi nancial services in recipient countries. fi rms. However, some barriers—including fees on consumer This research project is investigating the link between re- and SME loans relative to GDP per capita—seem to be more mittances and fi nancial development by conducting two case constraining than others. On the one hand, the fees associ- studies. Using data from a nationally representative rural ated with international wire transfers and the use of ATM

44 cards seem orthogonal to most other outreach indicators. On event study methodology, benchmarking the share price of the other hand, several measures—including minimum bal- the acquired or acquiring bank against share prices for the ances for checking and savings accounts, annual fees and market as a whole and for a control group of banks that were documentation requirements associated with these accounts, not privatized. and the number of delivery channels for lending products— The case studies and cross-country analyses support the are highly correlated with other outreach measures and conclusion that privatization, even of relatively poorly per- thus seem to constitute true hurdles to accessing formal forming banks, improves performance over continued state banking services. ownership. But several policies reduce the benefi ts of priva- Barriers to banking services could in principle arise as a tization. Continued state ownership, even of minority shares, result of banks’ rational business decisions. The analysis ex- harms the performance of privatized banks. In weak insti- plores the association between barrier indicators and several tutional environments share offerings produce smaller per- bank and country characteristics. formance gains than direct sales to strategic investors. And The analysis shows that although customers in predomi- prohibiting foreigners from participating reduces the gains nantly government-owned banking systems face lower de- from both direct sales and share issue privatization. posit barriers, they face higher lending barriers. Contrary to The research was presented at the World Bank Confer- conventional wisdom, a larger share of foreign bank owner- ence on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C. (November ship is associated with lower barriers in deposit services. 2003); a World Bank workshop, Washington, D.C. (2003, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance Team— 2004, and 2005); several academic conferences; and the An- Asli Demirgüç-Kunt ([email protected]), Thor- nual Meetings of the International Society for New Institu- sten Beck, and Soledad Martinez Peria. With Subika Farazi tional Economics, Tucson (Fall 2004). and Ning Jiang. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Pri- Project Code: P101515. vate Sector Team, Robert Cull ([email protected]), Thor- Completion date: FY09. sten Beck, George Clarke, Juan Miguel Crivelli, Michael Fuchs, and Leora Klapper. With Allen N. Berger, U.S. Fed- Bank Privatization in Developing Countries eral Reserve Board of Governors; Ekkehart Boehmer, Texas A&M University; Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti, Bank of Italy; Countries have used a variety of methods in selling state- John P. Bonin, Wesleyan University; Narjess Boubakri, Uni- owned banks to the private sector. This project summarized versity of Montreal; Zhian Chen, University of New South those experiences, analyzed the political economy factors that Wales; Jean-Claude Cosset, University of Montreal; Klaus affected the choice of privatization method, and studied how Fischer, Université Laval; Kimberly Gleason, Florida Atlan- post-privatization performance differed under alternative tic University; Omrane Guedhami, Memorial University of methods. The research used a variety of approaches, designed Newfoundland; Stephen Haber, Stanford University; Daniel to provide useful information about when it is most fruitful Hardy, IMF; Iftekhar Hasan, Rensselaer Polytechnic Insti- to pursue bank privatization, how alternative transaction de- tute; Afeikhena Jerome, University of Ibadan; Shawn Kantor, signs affect outcomes, and how to avoid common obstacles. University of Arizona; Donghui Li, University of New South The project conducted detailed country case studies and Wales; James McNulty, Florida Atlantic University; William careful econometric analyses of bank-level panel data in 12 Megginson, University of Oklahoma; Fariborz Moshirian, countries—Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech University of New South Wales; Marcio Nakane, University Republic, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Hungary, Mexico, of São Paulo; Robert Nash, Wake Forest University; Jeffry Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, and Romania. These 12 countries Netter, University of Georgia, Nghia Nguyen, University were chosen because they had high levels of state ownership of Wales; Mohammed Omran, Arab Monetary Fund; Isaac of banks at some point in the 1990s and undertook a rela- Otchere, University of Melbourne; Anita Pennathur, Florida tively large number of privatizations. Atlantic University; Mary Shirley, Ronald Coase Institute; The country case studies were complemented by cross- William Summerhill, University of California at Los Angeles; country analyses. By examining cross-country variation in Gregory Udell, Indiana University; Paul Wachtel, New York bank privatization, one study directly tested the political University; Daniela Weintraub, University of São Paolo; and and economic factors that lead governments to relinquish Jonathan Williams, University of Wales. control of banks. Others yielded policy conclusions about Project Code: P0052854. popular methods of bank privatization. These studies used Completion date: May 2007.

45 Publications Megginson, William. 2005. “The Economics of Bank Privatiza- Beck, Thorsten, Juan Miguel Crivelli, and William Summerhill. tion.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 1931-80. 2005. “State Bank Transformation in Brazil – Choices and Con- Nash, Robert C., Ekkehart Boehmer, and Jeffry M. Netter. sequences.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 2223-57. 2005. “Bank Privatization in Developing and Developed Beck, Thorsten, Robert Cull, and Afeikhena T. Jerome. 2005. Countries: Cross-Sectional Evidence on the Impact of Eco- “Bank Privatization and Performance: Empirical Evi- nomic and Political Factors.” Journal of Banking and Finance dence from Nigeria.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 1981-2013. 29(8-9): 2355-79. Otchere, Isaac. 2005. “Do Privatized Banks in Middle- and Berger, Allen N., George R. G. Clarke, Robert Cull, Leora Klap- Low-Income Countries Perform Better Than Rival Banks? per, and Gregory F. Udell. 2005. “Corporate Governance and An Intra-Industry Analysis of Bank Privatization.” Journal of Bank Performance: A Joint Analysis of the Static, Selection, Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 2067-93. and Dynamic Effects of Domestic, Foreign, and State Own- Williams, Jonathan, and Nghia Nguyen. 2005. “Financial Lib- ership.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 2179-2221. eralization, Crisis, and Restructuring: A Comparative Study Bonaccorsi di Patti, Emilia, and Daniel Hardy. 2005. “Finan- of Bank Performance and Bank Governance in South East cial Liberalization, Bank Privatization, and Efficiency: Asia.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 2119-54. Evidence from Pakistan.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 2381-2406. How Banks Go Abroad: Branches or Subsidiaries? Bonin, John P., Iftekhar Hasan, and Paul Wachtel. 2005. “Priva- tization Matters: Bank Efficiency in Transition Countries.” How foreign banks enter markets matters for bankers and Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 2155-78. their customers and for domestic policy-makers for two main Boubakri, Narjess, Jean-Claude Cosset, Klaus Fischer, and Om- reasons. First, the mode of entry affects the competitive rane Guedhami. 2005. “Privatization and Bank Performance structure of local banking systems. Second, the regulatory in Developing Countries.” Journal of Banking and Finance challenges posed by fully capitalized foreign-owned subsid- 29(8-9): 2015-41. iaries differ from those associated with foreign branches. Clarke, George R. G., Juan Miguel Crivelli, and Robert Cull. This research sheds light on how banks choose the orga- 2005. “The Impact of Bank Privatization and Foreign En- nizational form under which to enter foreign markets. The try on Access to Credit in Argentina’s Provinces.” Journal of project constructed a large data set on the foreign activities Banking and Finance 29(1): 5-29. and general characteristics of the 100 largest international Clarke, George R. G., and Robert Cull. 2005. “Bank Privati- banks and on the legal, regulatory, and market structures of zation in Argentina: A Model of Political Constraints and host countries in Latin America and Eastern Europe. Using Differential Outcomes.” Journal of Development Economics these data, the research studied the determinants of the de- 78(1): 133-55. cision by international banks to operate as a branch or sub- Clarke, George R.G., Robert Cull, and Mary Shirley. 2005. sidiary, focusing on taxation, risk considerations, expansion “Bank Privatization in Developing Countries: A Summary strategies pursued by the parent bank, regulations in the of Lessons and Findings.” Journal of Banking and Finance home and host countries, and the parent bank’s history of in- 29(8-9): 1905-30. ternationalization and preferences for an organizational form. ———. 2007. “Bank Privatization in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Because a bank’s choice of a subsidiary or branch form can Case of Uganda Commercial Bank.” World Bank, Washing- be observed only after the bank has made a decision to enter, ton, D.C. Mimeo. the authors estimate a Heckman probit model, which con- Djankov, Simeon, Jan Jindra, and Leora Klapper. 2005. “Corpo- templates both the decision to enter a market and the choice rate Valuation and the Resolution of Bank Insolvency in East of organizational form faced by foreign banks. Asia.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8-9): 2095-2118. The fi ndings showed that banks were more likely to oper- Gleason, Kimberly, Anita Pennathur, and James McNulty. 2005. ate as branches in countries that had higher taxes and lower “Returns to Acquirers of Privatizing Financial Services regulatory restrictions on bank entry and foreign branches. Firms: An International Examination.” Journal of Banking Subsidiary operations were preferred by banks seeking to and Finance 29(8-9): 2043-65. penetrate host markets by establishing large retail operations. Haber, Stephen, 2005. “Mexico’s Experiments with Bank Priva- Economic and political risks had opposite effects, suggesting tization and Liberalization, 1991-2003.” Journal of Banking that legal differences in the responsibilities of parent banks and Finance 29(8-9): 2325-53.

46 associated with branches and subsidiaries are important de- importance in the domestic banking systems of small, low- terminants of banks’ organizational form. income countries is rising. Project fi ndings were presented at the joint World Project fi ndings have been presented at the University Bank-Journal of Banking and Finance conference of Amsterdam (June 2006); Utrecht University (June 2006); on Globalization and Financial Services in Emerg- Rabobank of the Netherlands (June 2006); American Univer- ing Economies held at the World Bank (June 2005). sity (September 2006); LACEA – Mexico City (November Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance 2006); Financial Instability, Supervision and Central Banks Team—Maria Soledad Martinez Peria (mmartinezpe- Conference – Helsinki (June 2007); and the 13th Dubrovnik [email protected]). With Eugenio Cerutti and Giovanni Economic Conference – Dubrovnik (June 2007). dell’Ariccia, International Monetary Fund. The data cover a sample of 4,074 banks from 103 devel- Project Code: P075950. oping countries and 35 high-income countries and span the Completion date: June 2005. period 1995-2006. Responsibility: Development Prospects Group, International Fi- Publication nance Team—Mansoor Dailami ([email protected]), Cerutti, E., G. Dell’Ariccia, and M.S. Martinez Peria. 2007. Neeltje van Horen, Tugba Gurcanlar, and Joaquin Mercado. “How Banks Go Abroad: Branches or Subsidiaries?” Journal With Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund. of Banking and Finance 31(6, June): 1669-92. Project Code: P105173. Completion date: November 2007. Foreign Banking Publications This research project aimed to uncover differences between Buch, C., and G. DeLong. 2004. “Cross-Border Bank Mergers: foreign ownership by banks from developing countries and What Lures the Rare Animal?” Journal of Banking and Fi- by banks from high-income countries. The project involved nance 28: 2077-2102. building a large database on entry by foreign banks. Claessens, S., A. Demirguc-Kunt, and H. Huizinga. 2001. “How The project provided an overview of developments in Does Foreign Entry Affect Domestic Banking Markets?” foreign banking in developing countries between 1995 and Journal of Banking and Finance 25: 891-911. 2006. It also examined differences in terms of impact on the Claessens, S., and N. van Horen. 2007. “Location Decisions of local banking markets of entry by banks from developing Foreign Banks and Competitive Advantage.” Policy Re- countries versus entry by banks from developed countries. search Working Paper 4113. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The project specifi cally treated foreign banks as heteroge- Galindo, A., A. Micco, and C. Serra. 2003. “Better the Devil neous with respect to their origin. That You Know: Evidence on Entry Costs Faced by Foreign The main output of the project was a comprehensive da- Banks.” Working Paper 477. Inter-American Development tabase with bank-level information on ownership, including Bank, Washington, D.C. origin of the owner when the bank was foreign owned, and Grosse, R., and L.G. Goldberg. 1991. “Foreign Bank Activity in a large number of fi nancial variables and bank characteristics the United States: An Analysis by Country of Origin.” Jour- for the vast majority of banks in all countries in the world. nal of Banking and Finance 15: 1092-1112. The database spans 1995-2006. The main source of informa- Micco, A., U. Panizza, and M. Yañez. 2007. “Bank Ownership and tion was Bankscope, but information was also collected us- Performance. Does Politics Matter?” Journal of Banking and ing the Web sites of individual banks, parent banks, central Finance 31: 219-41. banks, and other internet sources. Van Horen, N. 2007. “Foreign Banking in Developing Countries; The preliminary fi ndings indicated that developing coun- Origin Matters.” Emerging Markets Review 8: 81-105. tries have become more important with respect to cross-border investments in other developing countries, although their Globalization and International Capital Flows share in total foreign banks in developing countries remained stable in 1995-2006. Banks from a greater set of developing This research project consists of studies on several sets of is- countries have become investors and are expanding into a sues related to international capital fl ows. Most of the studies larger number of host countries (mostly within their region). are empirical analyses based on cross-country or cross-fi rm Although foreign banks from developing countries still play panel regressions. Some also develop theoretical models. And a marginal role in the global banking system, their overall analysis of specifi c crisis episodes uses household survey data

47 to gain a better understanding of the distributional effects of Money and Finance, 26:5, pp. 788-813. Longer version ap- fi nancial crises. peared as CEPR Discussion Paper 6137, 2007. One line of research studies the effects of fi nancial glo- de la Torre, Augusto, Juan Carlos Gozzi Valdez, and Sergio balization on developing countries, with particular attention Schmukler. 2005. “Stock Market Development under Glo- to the relation between globalization, fi nancial development, balization: Whither the Gains from Reforms?” Journal of contagion, and crises. The research fi nds that accessing in- Banking and Finance, 31:6, pp. 1731-1754, 2007. ternational fi nancial markets enables fi rms to lengthen debt ———. 2007a. “Capital Market Development: Whither Latin maturities, increase the liquidity of assets, fi nance growth op- America?” Forthcoming. Strengthening Global Financial Mar- portunities, and expand. kets, Marcio Garcia and Sebastian Edwards, eds., IASE/ Another line of research studies foreign direct investment NBER Volume, University of Chicago Press. in emerging market economies. The analysis fi nds that both ———. 2007b. “Financial Development: Emerging and Matur- domestic factors (trade openness, fi nancial depth, macroeco- ing Policy Issues.” World Bank Research Observer, 22:1, pp. nomic stability) and global factors (world interest rates, world 67-102, Spring. growth, and credit spreads) are signifi cant drivers of foreign de la Torre, Augusto, and Sergio Schmukler. 2005. “Small Fish, direct investment. Big Pond. What Is the Future for Domestic Capital Markets Another line of research focuses on understanding cross- in a Globalized Economy?” Finance and Development, 42:2, country differences in holdings of domestic and foreign pp. 47-49, June. assets. Further, a project component on openness and vul- de la Torre, Augusto, and Sergio Schmukler. 2006. Emerging Cap- nerability tries to shed light on the question as to whether ital Markets and Globalization: The Latin American Experience. international integration increases a country’s external vul- Stanford University Press and the World Bank. nerability. The analysis attempts to answer these questions ———. 2007. “Desarrollo del Mercado de Capitales: Balance using cross-country and over-time empirical evaluation. y Perspectivas.” (“Capital Market Development: Taking Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and Mac- Stock”) Política Monetaria y Estabilidad Financiera: De la Teoría roeconomics Team—Sergio Schmukler (sschmukler@world- a la Práctica, Jornadas Monetarias y Bancarias del Banco Cen- bank.org), Aart Kraay, Norman Loayza, and Luis Servén. tral de la República Argentina, Anales 2006, pp.181-194, May. With Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Augusto de la Torre, Didier, Tatiana, Paolo Mauro, and Sergio Schmukler. Forthcom- César Calderón, Juan Carlos Gozzi Valdez, David Dollar, ing. “Vanishing Contagion?” Journal of Policy Modeling. Daniel Kaufmann, Daniela Klingebiel, Richard Newfarmer, Dollar, David and Aart Kraay. 2006. “Neither a Borrower Nor and Neeltje van Horen. With Rui Albuquerque, University a Lender : Does China’s Zero Net Foreign Asset Position of Rochester; Fernando Broner and Jaume Ventura, Univer- Make Economic Sense?” Journal of Monetary Economics. sitat Pompeu Fabra; Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Central Bank Gozzi, Juan Carlos, Ross Levine, and Sergio Schmukler. 2007. of Chile; Marina Halac, University of California at Berkeley; “Internationalization and the Evolution of Corporate Valu- Ross Levine, Brown University; Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Uni- ation.” NBER Working Paper No. w11023. Forthcoming in versidad Torcuato Di Tella; Tatiana Didier and Guido Loren- Journal of Financial Economics. zoni, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Stijn Claessens, Kaufmann, Daniel, Gil Mehrez, and Sergio Schmukler. 2005. Gil Mehrez, Paolo Mauro, and Esteban Vesperoni, Interna- “Predicting Currency Fluctuations and Crises: Do Resident tional Monetary Fund; Graciela Kaminsky, George Wash- Firms Have an Informational Advantage?” Journal of Inter- ington University; Hiro Kawai, University of Tokyo; Philip national Money and Finance, 24:6, 1012-1029. Lane, Trinity College; and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton, OECD. Kawai, Hiro, Richard Newfarmer, and Sergio Schmukler. 2005. Project Code: P053639. “FinancialCrises: Nine Lessons from East Asia.” Eastern Completion date: Ongoing. Economic Journal, 31:2, pp. 185-207, Spring. Kraay, Aart, and Jaume Ventura. 2007. “The Dot-Com Bubble, Publications the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account.” Current Calderón, César, Norman Loayza, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. Account Imbalances in G7 Countries, Richard Clarida, ed., 2005. “Does Openness Imply Greater Exposure.” World University of Chicago Press. Previous version appeared as Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3733. “The Emergence and Transformation of the U.S. Current Claessens, Stijn, and Sergio Schmukler. 2007. “International Fi- Account Deficit.” nancial Integration through Equity Markets: Which Firms Lane, Philip, and Sergio Schmukler. 2007a. “The International from Which Countries Go Global?” Journal of International Financial Integration of China and India.” Dancing with Gi-

48 ants: China, India, and the World Economy, Alan Winters and ordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, data sets on bilateral Shahid Yusuf, eds., Institute of Policy Studies and World banking and securities markets activity, data sets on interna- Bank, pp. 101-132. tional mutual funds, and data on bilateral foreign direct in- ———. 2007b. “The Evolving Role of China and India in the vestment. In addition, it tracked data from the new External Global Financial System.” Open Economies Review, 18:4. Wealth of Nations Mark II data set in tracking the composi- Levine, Ross, and Sergio Schmukler. 2006. “Internationalization tion of external positions and identifying the evolution of net and Stock Market Liquidity.” Review of Finance-Journal of the creditor and net debtor positions. European Finance Association, 10:1, pp.153-187, March. Three salient features emerged from the analysis. First, ———. 2007. “Migration, Liquidity Spillovers, and Trade Di- regarding size, China and India still have only a small global version: The Effects of Internationalization on Stock Mar- share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with ket Activity.” Journal of Banking and Finance 31(6): 1595-612. the exception of China’s foreign direct investment liabili- NBER Working Paper 9614, 2003. ties). Second, in terms of composition, these countries’ in- Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Sergio ternational fi nancial integration is highly asymmetric. Third, Schmukler. 2004. “Market Discipline in Emerging Econo- although neoclassical models would predict these countries mies: Beyond Bank Fundamentals.” Market Discipline across to be net borrowers in the international fi nancial system (giv- Countries and Industries, C. Borio, W. Hunter, G. Kaufman, en their economic development), over the past decade both and K. Tsatsaronis (eds.), MIT Press, pp. 135-146. China and India have reversed their large net liability posi- ———. 2005. “Market Discipline and Systemic Risk: Evidence tions, with China even becoming a net creditor. from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies.” World Bank Pol- The fi ndings showed that infl ows of foreign direct invest- icy Research Working Paper No. 3440. ment to China have contributed to technology transfer, and Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, Sergio Schmukler, and Neeltje van Horen. portfolio equity infl ows to India have facilitated the rapid ex- 2006. “International Financial Integration through the Law of pansion of its stock market, while the domestic fi nancial sec- One Price.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3897. tors of both countries have been mostly insulated from the ———. Forthcoming. “Emerging Market Liquidity and Crises.” potentially destabilizing impact of greater cross-border debt Journal of the European Economic Association. fl ows. Project fi ndings were presented at the IMF-World Schmukler, Sergio. 2006. “Exchange Rate Arrangements and Dis- Bank Annual Meetings, Washington, D.C. (2006); the con- arrangements: Prospects for a World Currency.” International ference China and Emerging Asia: Reorganizing the Global Economics and Economic Policy, 3:3-4, pp. 409-414, December. Economy, Seoul, South Korea; and the Center for Pacifi c Ba- ———. 2007. “The Benefits and Risks of Globalization: Chal- sin Studies Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San lenges for Developing Countries.” Forthcoming. Capital Francisco (2006). Markets Liberalization, Joseph Stiglitz and Jose Antonio Oca- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Offi ce of the Di- mpo, eds., Oxford University Press. rector—L. Alan Winters, and Macroeconomics and Growth Schmukler, Sergio, Pablo Zoido-Lobaton, and Marina Halac. Team—Sergio Schmukler ([email protected]). 2006. “Financial Globalization, Crises, and Contagion.” In- With Philip Lane and Niall McInerney, Trinity College ternational Macroeconomics: Recent Developments, Amalia Mo- Dublin; Min Zhao and Louis Kuijs, World Bank China Of- rales, ed., pp. 207-225, Nova Science Publishers. fi ce; Deepak Mishra; Ajay Shah; Ila Patnaik, Indian Express; Xu Nuo, Peking University; and Chong-En Bai, David Li, International Financial Integration of China and India Wenkai Sun, and Zhenyu Zhao, Tsinghua University. Project Code: P093730. The purpose of this project is to study the implications of Completion date: December 2006. China and India on the rest of the world. The project assessed how the increasing economic prominence of China and India Publications has reshaped the international fi nancial system. Both coun- Lane, Philip, and Sergio Schmukler. 2007a. “The Evolving Role tries have gradually adopted policies that are more market of China and India in the Global Financial System.” Open oriented and open to the fl ow of capital across their borders. Economies Review 18(4). Although their fi nancial systems still remain restricted, they ______. 2007b. “The International Financial Integration of Chi- have received signifi cant capital infl ows in recent years and na and India.” In Alan Winters and Shahid Yusuf, eds. Danc- have become key outward investors. ing with Giants: China, India, and the World Economy. Washing- The analysis used the International Monetary Fund’s Co- ton, D.C.: Institute of Policy Studies and World Bank.

49 Bank Regulation and Supervision: Where Do We Stand? change, and NASDAQ); and data on fi rm characteristics from Worldscope, Standard and Poor’s Emerging Markets This research project updated the Bank Regulation and Su- Database, and Bloomberg. To analyze the impact of access- pervision Database to capture changes that have occurred as ing international equity markets on fi rm value, the analysis countries have implemented Basel II on the expected, piece- compared the valuation, as measured by Tobin’s q, of inter- meal basis. It analyzed the extent that initial regulations pre- national fi rms with that of domestic fi rms. It also analyzed dicted future bank system performance, and how changes in whether the valuation of international fi rms changed after regulatory variables have been associated with changes in internationalization and traced the year-by-year evolution of bank system performance. In addition, the project analyzed Tobin’s q and its components to analyze the short and long- the trends in regulation since 1997/98 when data were fi rst term effects of internationalization. Finally, it analyzed the collected, and described regulation around the world as of impact of different forms of internationalization on Tobin’s q end-2005. and its components, in order to gain insight into the determi- The project built closely on two previous rounds of the nants and effects of the decision to go abroad. database (1997/98 and 2001). The updated database refl ects The fi ndings documented the role of domestic and inter- changes countries have made in their regulatory and super- national fi nancial markets in fi nancing fi rm growth. They also visory framework over time – especially with the implemen- showed how the globalization process can create a wedge tation of Basel II. The panel data set allows researchers to between fi rms that are able to access international fi nancial exploit degrees of freedom in cross-country research. markets and those that do not. And the research analyzed to The project used a survey of regulatory entities around what degree fi rms can overcome poor domestic institutional the world to update the database. It implemented the survey environments through participation in international fi nancial by collecting information through a Web site. markets. The Bank Regulation and Supervision Database is an im- This study helped research in Part II countries by build- portant tool for comparing and assessing regulatory and su- ing a new dataset on fi rms’ performance and analyzing the pervisory frameworks and the stability and effi ciency of the effects and causes of fi nancial globalization. Part II govern- fi nancial system. ment offi cials, researchers, and agencies were present at vari- Responsibility: Human Development and Public Services— ous presentations of the preliminary fi ndings, and provided Thorsten Beck ([email protected]). With James Barth, comments and participated in the discussions. Auburn University; Gerard Caprio, Williams College; Martin The reports and dissemination activities have been pub- Goetz, Brown University; Ross Levine, Brown University; licized through websites, email announcements, newsletters, and Alexey Levkov, Brown University. and World Bank and International Monetary Fund general Project Code: P099997. publications, such as En Breve, Research Highlights 2006, and Completion date: June 2007. Finance and Development. Finance and Development has a wide circulation in developing countries, with 500,000 subscribers, The Impact of Accessing International Capital Markets and is published several languages. An article describing this on Firms’ Value research appeared in the June 2005 issue of the magazine. This research was also featured in a number of articles in the Globalization has advanced signifi cantly over the last two de- media, including Latin Finance, El Cronista Comercial (Argen- cades, with increased cross-border capital fl ows, tighter links tina), and Diario Financiero (Chile). among fi nancial markets, and greater commercial presence The project fi ndings were presented at the following of foreign fi nancial fi rms around the world. An important ele- conferences and workshops: AEA 2005 Annual Meetings, ment of this globalization trend has been the migration of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (January 2005); Securities and securities market activities to international fi nancial centers, Exchange Commission, course on Capital Market Develop- such as New York and London. This project set out to provide ment, Washington, D.C. (March 2005); University of Minne- a better understanding of the reasons why fi rms list abroad, sota (winter 2005); NBER International Finance and Mac- by analyzing the evolution of fi rms’ valuation before, during, roeconomics Meetings, Cambridge, Massachusetts (March and after they access international equity markets. 2005); Eleventh Georgia Tech Conference on International The project collected data on fi rms’ international activi- Finance, Atlanta, Georgia (April 2005); UN Economic Com- ties from Euromoney, the Bank of New York, and several mission for Latin America and the Caribbean, The Financial exchanges (London Stock Exchange, New York Stock Ex- Sector in Latin America: New Trends and Implications for

50 the Real Economy, Santiago, Chile (April 2005); Inter-Ameri- can Development Bank, Business Seminar Series 2005, Capi- tal Markets for Development: The Role of the Private Sector, Washington, D.C. (June 2005); World Bank Conference (with Journal of Banking and Finance) on Financial Globalization, Washington, D.C. (June 2005); Chilean Central Bank, Annu- al Conference, Perspectivas sobre los mercados de capitales (June 2005); Fundación CIDOB, Workshop Una nueva agenda de desarrollo económico para América Latina, Salamanca, Spain (October 2005); Latin American and the Caribbean Economic Association Annual Meetings, Paris, France (Oc- tober 2005); NBER Inter-American Seminar on Economics, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (December 2005); New York Federal Reserve Bank, New York; Darden School of Business/Journal of Financial Economics/World Bank Emerging Markets Con- ference, Washington, D.C. (March 2006); and Inter-American Development Bank, Research Seminar Series, Washington D.C. (March 2007). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and In- vestment Team—Sergio Schmukler, and Juan Carlos Gozzi Valdez. With Ross Levine, Brown University. Project Code: P093730. Completion date: June 2006.

Publications de la Torre, Augusto, and Sergio Schmukler. 2005. “Whither Latin American Capital Markets?” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Report. ———. 2006. “Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization: The Latin American Experience.” Stanford University Press and the World Bank. Gozzi, Juan Carlos, Ross Levine, and Sergio Schmukler. 2006. “Internationalization and the Evolution of Corporate Valu- ation.” Policy Research Working Paper 3933. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. Forthcoming. “Internationalization and the Evolution of Corporate Valuation.” Journal of Financial Economics. Levine, Ross, and Sergio Schmukler. 2005. “Internationalization and the Evolution of Corporate Valuation.” NBER Working Paper w11023.

51 Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sector Management

Making Services Work for the Poor Reinikka, R., and J. Svensson. 2004. “Efficiency of Public Spending: New Microeconomic Tools to Assess Service This research project aimed to fi nd new ways to measure and Delivery.” In Tony Addison and Alan Roe, eds., Fiscal analyze the effi cacy of public spending and service delivery. Policy for Development: Poverty, Reconstruction and Growth. The research covered all developing regions, paying special Palgrave Macmillan. attention to Africa and South Asia, where the gap between ———. 2004. “The Power of information: evidence from pub- current poverty and human development indicators and the lic expenditure tracking surveys.” Global Corruption Report Millennium Development Goals is the widest. 2004. Transparency International, London: Pluto Press. The project addressed the severe shortage of systematic Svensson, J. 2005. “Eight questions about Corruption.” Journal evidence and lessons at the level of the service-providing of Economic Perspectives 19(5): 19-42. unit, such as the clinic or school. The core task was to col- Svensson, J., and R. Reinikka. 2004. “Local Capture: Evidence lect such micro-level evidence, and to organize its analysis in from a Central Government Transfer Program in Uganda.” collaboration with scholars and institutions in the develop- Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(2): 679-706. ing countries concerned. This micro-level data from frontline ———. 2005. “Fighting corruption to improve schooling: Evi- service providers included public, private not-for-profi t, and dence from a newspaper campaign in Uganda.” Journal of the private-for-profi t sectors. The project designed and tested a European Economic Association 3(2-3): 259-67. new survey instrument, the Quantitative Service Delivery ———. 2006. “How Corruption Affects Service Delivery and Survey indicator. The indicator provides comparable micro What Can Be Done About It?” In S. Rose-Ackerman, ed., In- data on the “service delivery climate” across countries. The ternational Handbook on the Economics of Corruption. Edward project analyzed the most effective ways to increase primary Elgar Publishing Ltd. school enrollment and student learning. It identifi ed and used ———. 2006. “Using Micro-Surveys to Measure and Explain the appropriate survey methods and interview techniques for Corruption.” World Development 34(2): 359-70. collecting quantitative micro-level data on corruption. One of the fi ndings was that measuring the incidence of Political Economy of Public Services public spending in education requires an intergenerational framework. Finally, the project considered various modalities This ongoing research project focuses on implementing a for service provision in different contexts—central govern- primary survey of households in Benin and India to study ment, local government, and client power. Service delivery the role of institutions, information, social polarization, and arrangements represent efforts to balance problems with the the credibility of political promises in shaping political mar- long route of accountability with the short route. Societies kets and incentives to serve the poor. The project is studying choose the long route because market failure or equity con- household political behavior in order to identify particularly cerns make the traditional short route—consumer power over binding political constraints that lead to ineffi cient allocation providers—inadequate. But government failure associated of public resources. The overall goal is to develop an inter- with the long route may be so severe that, in some cases, the vention with the potential of addressing and overcoming market solution may actually leave poor people better off. these political obstacles, which is amenable to implementa- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services tion through international support. Team—Ritva Reinikka ([email protected]), Jakob The analysis uses a principal-agent framework under in- Svensson, and F. Halsey Rogers. formation asymmetry and uncertainty. The econometric work Project Code: P086512. relies on publicly available data on public spending by the Completion date: June 30, 2006. Indian government, publicly available cross-country data on economic and fi scal indicators, and cross-country political data Publications from the World Bank’s Database of Political Institutions. Bourguignon, F., and F. H. Rogers. Forthcoming. “Distributional The main conclusion thus far is that much of the variation Effects of Educational Improvements: Are We Using the in public service delivery across developing countries can Wrong Model?” Economics of Education Review. be attributed to differences in the incentives of politicians.

52 Even in developing countries that are democracies, where omy: Effect of Elections in the Indian States.” Journal of politicians depend on the poor for political support, public Development Economics 73(1, February): 125-54. expenditures often fail to deliver basic services to the poor ———. 2006. “The Political Economy of Equalization Trans- because political agents have incentives to misallocate pub- fers.” In Roy Bahl, Jorge Martinez, and Robert Searle, eds., lic resources to private rents and to ineffi cient transfers that Fiscal Capacity Equalization and Intergovernmental Transfers. benefi t a few citizens at the expense of many. Springer Publications. Such misallocation can be traced to imperfections in po- ———. 2007. “Can Delegation Promote Fiscal Discipline in a litical markets that constrain the extent to which poor people Federation? Evidence from Fiscal Performance in the In- can hold governments accountable for their actions, such as dian States.” In Mark Gradstein and Kai Konrad, eds., Insti- lack of information about service quality, lack of credibility tutions and Norms in Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: of political promises, and polarization of voters on social and MIT Press. ideological grounds. Institutions such as decentralization, Khemani, Stuti, and Waly Wane. 2007. “Populist Fiscal Policy.” party systems, electoral regimes, and constitutional rules in- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, teract with these political market imperfections in determin- D.C. Mimeo. ing outcomes. The research fi ndings have been presented at the World Limited Access Orders and Integration of Political and Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. (March 2004); the Centre Economic Systems for Policy Research, New Delhi, India (March 2007); Na- tional Institute for Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi, The fi rst step to more effective development policies is a India (March 2007); International Monetary Fund and World more realistic understanding of how societies actually be- Bank, Washington, D.C. (January 2007); Georgetown Univer- have and, in particular, how developing societies differ from sity, School of Foreign Services, Washington, D.C. (March developed ones. This project seeks to understand more 2006); Initiative for Policy Dialogue, Columbia University, about the political economy of countries and how this sets New York, NY (February 2006); and seminars at the World the opportunities and constraints for policy reform. The re- Bank, Washington, D.C. (April 2004, April 2006). search takes a new tack with the integration of political and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- economic considerations. opment and Public Services Team—Philip Keefer (Pkeefer@ The problem of providing powerful individuals with an in- worldbank.org), Stuti Khemani and Waly Wane. centive to be peaceful motivates the analysis, which is based Project Code: P086338. on three orders or ways of organizing society. The primitive Completion date: June 2009. order consists of hunter-gatherer societies and concerns us only in passing. The limited access order creates limits on ac- Publications cess to valuable political and economic functions as a way to Ahmad, Junaid, Shantayanan Devarajan, Stuti Khemani, and generate rents that motivate the control of violence, among Shekhar Shah. 2006. “Decentralization and Service Deliv- other things. In limited access orders, the political system ery.” In Ehtisham Ahmad and Giorgio Brosio, eds., Handbook manipulates the economy to create rents as a means of solv- of Fiscal Federalism. Edward Elgar Publishers. ing the problem of violence. The open access order relies on Keefer, Philip, and Stuti Khemani. 2004. “Why Do the Poor competition, open access to organizations, and the rule of law Receive Poor Services?” Economic and Political Weekly 39(9, to hold the society together. These societies use competition February): 935-43. and institutions to make it in the interests of political offi - ———. 2005. “Democracy, Public Expenditures, and the Poor.” cials to observe constitutional rules, including consolidated World Bank Research Observer 20(spring): 1-27. political control over all organizations with the potential for ———. 2006. “Why Do Some Politicians Not Like “Pork”? Evi- major violence. dence from a Unique Public Spending Program in India.” Taken together, these ideas suggest that development World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, policies often fail because they try to transplant elements of D.C. Mimeo. the open access order – such as competition, markets, and de- Keefer, Philip, and Razvan Vlaicu. 2005. “Democracy, Credibil- mocracy – directly into limited access orders. These reforms ity, and Clientelism.” Policy Research Working Paper 3472. threaten the rent-creation that holds the society together and World Bank, Washington, D.C. in many cases challenge the very logic on which the society Khemani, Stuti. 2004. “Political Cycles in a Developing Econ- is organized.

53 Further analysis using this framework will aim to under- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team- stand how the variation of the social order relates to the ap- Branko Milanovic ([email protected]). With Nicho- propriateness of various reforms. las Sambanis, Yale University. The project has been presented at a World Bank workshop Project Code: P077354. on Political and Economic Systems: Interaction and Effects Completion date: July 2008. on Economic Development, May 7-8, 2007; and a Technical Workshop hosted by SOAS (University of London) in col- Publication laboration with the UK Department for International Devel- Sambanis, Nicholas, and Branko Milanovic. 2007. “Explaining the opment, London, July 2-3, 2007. Demand for Sovereignty.” Paper presented at the American Po- Responsibility: Independent Evaluation Group, Country Evalu- litical Science Association meeting in Chicago, September 4. ation and Regional Rel.—Steven Webb (Swebb@worldbank. org). With Douglass North, Washington University, St Louis; Implementing Afﬁ rmative Action in the Public Service John Wallis, University of Maryland; and Barry Weingast, Stanford University. Through case studies in India, Malaysia, Nigeria, and South Project Codes: PO98417, PO104345. Africa, this research project examined diversity management Completion date: March 2008. in public service, especially in publicly funded opportunities for groups disadvantaged by past discrimination. The Publication study concentrated on how governments implement their af- North, Douglass C., John Joseph Wallis, Steven B. Webb, and fi rmative action policies. Drawing on case studies, the proj- Barry R. Weingast, 2007. “Limited Access Orders in the ect sought to identify patterns of implementation and draw Third World: A New Approach to the Problems of Develop- generalizable lessons: Which groups were preferred within ment.” Policy Research Working Paper 4359. World Bank, each public service and across the four countries? What tar- Washington, D.C. gets are set for each group? And which criterion received the most emphasis? The Economics of Secession: Inequality, Globalization, The study examined the institutional mechanism for and Self-Determination implementation in each country, particularly how authority and responsibility for implementation were structured, what This research project is developing an economic theory of support and tools were provided, and how grievances were secession and conducting applied econometric analysis to redressed. The countries used a uniform approach to moni- identify the determinants of secession-motivated political toring affi rmative action, based on tracking targets in the violence. The empirical tests are aimed at explaining the composition of public service. Monitoring focused mostly on causes of secessionist movements, identifying countries and checking whether the recruiting organization had complied regions most at risk of secession, and exploring the infl uence with regulations and much less on evaluating whether disad- of globalization and economic policy on secessionist violence. vantages were bring reversed as intended. The research is studying all cases of secession (successful or Diversity management could be askew with the merit not) during the period after World War II, building on an ex- principle, long considered central to a well-performing public isting database to address the questions of secession. service, and the research investigated how each public service The starting point is a theoretical framework in which both reconciled diversity management with the merit principle. greater political sovereignty and greater income are normal Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- goods, but there is a tradeoff between the two. In this frame- ment Network, Public Sector Governance Group—Ranjana work, greater national income is achieved at the cost of sur- Mukherjee ([email protected]); Development Re- rendering some sovereignty by joining international agree- search Group, Public Services Team—Heng-fu Zhou. With ments and organizations or by undertaking deeper forms Oladipupo Adamolekun; Pachampet Sundaram; John Erero of regional integration (such as the European Union). The and Ayo Adesopo, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Ni- income-sovereignty tradeoff is not the same for all countries geria; Babatunde Oyedeji, Independent Policy Group, Abu- or individuals: it is sharper for smaller countries, and it is dif- ja, Nigeria; and Robert Cameron, University of Cape Town, ferent for policy-makers than for ordinary citizens. These re- South Africa. lationships are used as the basis for explaining the conditions Project Code: P089631. for the development of secessionist movements. Completion date: June 2005.

54 Human Rights and Basic Services Bargaining for Bribes: The Role of Institutions

Despite recent interest in the potential of social and eco- Among the set of countries where corruption is perceived nomic rights litigation and jurisprudence, there has been to be rampant, economic performance has varied tremen- little empirical investigation of existing social and economics dously over the past several decades. This evidence leads to rights case law, let alone a structured and rigorous comparison the question (unanswered in the literature thus far) whether across countries. there are institutional and social factors that mitigate the This research project conducted a fi ve-country, empirical growth-retarding effects of corrupt government. Institu- study of the causes and effects of social and economic rights tional characteristics might affect the way in which corrupt litigation. It systematically and comparatively studied wheth- transactions between entrepreneurs and public offi cials af- er and under what conditions a legal, rights-based approach to fect productivity and, as a result, growth. This research proj- extending social and economic rights would be feasible and ect sought to identify such institutional characteristics and advisable. In particular, the research sought to answer several assess their effect on the bargaining process underlying questions. First, how much, and on which issues, do civil so- corrupt transactions. ciety and other actors resort to courts and the law to extend The research involved developing a theoretical framework the effectiveness of social and economic rights in developing to model the role of institutions in bargaining for bribes and countries? Second, what conditions must be present for civil then estimating the effect of different institutional set-ups society to be able to make extensive use of legal strategies, using cross-country data as well as fi rm-level data from Bul- and for these strategies to be effective? Third, what is the garia. The fi ndings showed that time spent bargaining with indirect aggregate social policy impact of legal approaches to bureaucrats and the amount of bribe payments were posi- extending social and economic rights? tively correlated, but that this association was weaker (and The research strategy was a structured comparison of fi ve thus corruption more “effi cient”) when the terms of unof- countries: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa. fi cial contracts were known to the fi rms. The analysis also These countries were chosen so as to include common law showed that institutional arrangements that resulted in lower countries with aggressive social and economic rights litiga- uncertainty in bargaining for bribes attenuated the impact of tion (India and South Africa) and weak or incipient social and corruption on fi rm growth. economic rights litigation (Nigeria), and civil law countries The project fi ndings have been disseminated informally with aggressive (Brazil) and weak (Indonesia) litigation. Sim- among government offi cials and policy-makers in Bulgaria as ilarly, two specifi c issue areas were selected for analysis in well as presented at the annual conference of the Italian So- order to provide within-country variation in the effectiveness ciety of Public Economics in Pavia, Italy (October 2004); the of litigation as a means of enforcement: although the fi ndings Institute for Public Policy Amedeo Avogadro, Alessandria, would generalize to the entire range of social and economic Italy; and the Public Economic Theory Conference in Hanoi, rights, the empirical sections emphasized the rights to health Vietnam (2006). care and education. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and In- The research fi ndings will be published in an edited vol- vestment Team—Roberta Gatti ([email protected]). With ume: The Impact of Legal Strategies to Achieve Economic and So- Ray Fisman, Jamele Rigolini, and Denis Nikitin. cial Rights (tentative title) by Cambridge University Press. Project Code: P089700. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Servic- Completion date: June 2006. es Team—Varun Gauri ([email protected]), Siobhan McInerney-Lankford, and Caroline Mary Sage. With Florian Publication Hoffmann, PUC-Rio, Brazil; Jonathan Berger, South African Gatti, Roberta, and Ray Fisman. 2005. “Bargaining for Bribes: University of Witwatersrand; Pratap Mehta, Center for Policy The Role of Institutions.” In Susan Rose-Ackerman, ed. and Research; Chidi Odinkalu, Open Society Institute; Biv- Economic Handbook of Corruption. Edward Elgar Publishing. itri Susanti and Daniel Brinks, University of Texas at Austin; Helen Hershkoff, New York University; Shylashri Shankar, The Relevance of Information for Service Delivery Center for Policy and Research; Philip Alston, New York University; and William Forbath, University of Texas Austin. This research project conducted a community-based, ran- Project Code: P092076. domized, controlled trial to determine the impact of an infor- Completion date: December 2008. mation campaign on public service delivery. The information

55 campaign provided information on entitled public services— lage government leaders, teachers, and parents – are sup- citizens’ control over public services, the funds for those ser- posed to coordinate the planning and implementation of vices, and village governance. public funds for education services in the villages. How The controlled trial consisted of 105 randomly selected much do people know about local agencies, that is, the provi- village clusters in north India. About half of the village clus- sions and processes at local levels for managing services? Can ters were randomly assigned to the intervention, the informa- people’s participation be strengthened through information tion campaign. The analysis was based on primary baseline campaigns about local agency and development outcomes? and end-line data. It included 1,045 randomly selected low This research project addressed such questions using prima- and mid-high caste households. The main outcome measures ry survey data from the north Indian State of Uttar Pradesh. were visits by a nurse midwife; prenatal exams, tetanus vac- The project carried out baseline and follow-up surveys of cinations, and prenatal supplements received by pregnant households, schools, and village education committees be- women; vaccinations received by infants; excess school fees fore and after information campaigns in randomly selected charged; occurrence of village council meetings; and devel- villages. The analysis used randomized evaluations to ad- opment work in villages. dress the questions raised above. At the baseline, there were no signifi cant differences in The baseline survey in March-May 2005 showed that large self-reported delivery of social and health services between numbers of children in the villages had not acquired basic intervention and control villages. After one year, intervention competency in reading, writing, and numeracy; yet, parents, villagers reported better delivery of several services com- teachers, and Village Education Committee members did not pared with control villagers. Both low and mid-high caste in- seem to be fully aware of the scale of the problem. Parents tervention households reported signifi cant improvements in did not know that there was a Village Education Committee. service delivery. And Village Education Committee members were unaware Informing rural populations in India about entitled servic- of key roles they were empowered to play in education ser- es enhanced the delivery of social and health services among vices; public participation in improving education was negli- both low and mid-high caste households. The project showed gible; and correspondingly, people’s ranking of education on how interventions that emphasize educating resource-poor the list of village priorities was low. populations about entitled services may improve the deliv- The project interventions were designed to strengthen ery of such services. These interventions are promising and the Village Education Committees, whose capacity build- low-cost means for improving the health and welfare of ining is an explicit component for improving governance and dividuals in developing countries. Based on the fi ndings of accountability. It turned out that the project had no impact this research, a larger scale impact evaluation of education on local participation or service delivery by public agencies; information campaigns was initiated in three states in India. instead, the interventions spurred private initiatives to im- Project fi ndings were presented at the conference of the prove education outcomes, bypassing public agencies. Society of General Internal Medicine, Toronto (April 2007). The project fi ndings have been presented at the World Responsibility: South Asia Region, Human Development Sec- Bank’s offi ce in New Delhi, India (March 2007); the Depart- tor—Michelle Riboud ([email protected]), and Pri- ment of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey yanka Pandey. With Nisha Siddiqui, Harish Paliwal, and (February 2007); the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Stockholm, Smita Ahuja. Sweden (April 2006); and the School of Foreign Service, Project Code: P098119. Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. (March 2006). Completion date: July 2007. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services Team—Stuti Khemani ([email protected]), and Publication Macroeconomics and Growth Team—Philip Keefer. With Pandey, P., A. Sehgal, M. Riboud, D. Levine, and M. Goyal. Forth- Pratham Mumbai, Innovations for Poverty Action. coming. “Informing Rural Populations in India Improves De- Project Code: P090904. livery of Entitled Health and Social Services: A Randomized Completion date: December 2007 Controlled Trial.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Manuscript. Publications Information Campaigns to Improve Public Services Banerjee, Abhijit, Rukmini Banerji, Esther Duflo, and Rachel Glennerster. 2007. “Can Information Campaigns Spark Lo- In India, Village Education Committees – consisting of vil- cal Participation and Improve Outcomes? A Study of Prima-

56 ry Education Services in India.” Economic and Political Week- Although the project is still ongoing, its design has in- ly; and Policy Research Working Paper 3967. World Bank, spired other World Bank projects on strengthening social ac- Washington, D.C. countability (for example in Kenya and South Africa). Khemani, Stuti. Forthcoming. “Can Information Campaigns The project fi ndings have been presented at London School Overcome Political Obstacles to Serving the Poor?” In of Economics, Oxford, IGIER, MIT, the World Bank, NTNU, Shanta Devarajan and Ingrid Widlund, eds. The Politics of Namur, CEPR/EUDN (conference in Paris), and BREAD & Service Delivery in Democracies: Better Access for the Poor. Ex- CESifo (conference in Venice). pert Group on Development Issues, Ministry of Foreign Af- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- fairs, Sweden. velopment and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque ([email protected]), Jakob Svensson, Ritva The Impact of Citizen Report Cards at the Community Reinikka, and Carolyn Winter. With Jakob Svensson, Uni- Level versity; Martina Björkman, Bocconi University; Frances Nsonzi; Abel Ojoo; Anthony Wasswa; and James Kanyesigye, Identifying and implementing incentives that give rise to a Stockholm University. strong relationship of accountability between service provid- Project Code: P099138. ers and benefi ciaries is viewed by many as critical for improv- Completion date: June 2007. ing service delivery. How to achieve this, however, is less understood. This research project evaluated one possible tool to Publications increase the accountability of public service providers. Bjorkman, Martina, and Jakob Svensson. Forthcoming. “Power The project conducted a randomized fi eld experiment on to the People: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experi- increasing community-based monitoring. It implemented ment of a Community-Based Monitoring Project in Uganda.” surveys of 51 primary health care providers and almost 6,000 Policy Research Working Paper 4268. World Bank, Washing- randomly selected households from 325 randomly selected ton, D.C. villages in the catchment areas – the community. Half of the communities were randomly assigned to a treatment group. Citizen Report Cards at the Community Level - Impact Local nongovernmental organizations (community based or- Evaluation ganizations), using participatory techniques, distributed report cards to the communities in the treatment group – the Systematic evaluation of service delivery innovations to in- intervention. Based on the information provided on various crease accountability can show what works, what does not, dimensions of primary health service provision – includ- and why. The Citizen Report Card at the Community Level ing patterns of utilization; service quality indicators (wait is a tool for increasing the accountability of public service time, staff absenteeism, equipments available); availability providers. of drugs; and fees and user charges – each community held Uganda: Community-based Monitoring of the Provision of community meeting(s), followed by a staff meeting and an Health Services interface meeting where representatives from the commu- The project surveyed 51 primary health care providers nity and the staff got together to agree on how to improve the and almost 6,000 randomly selected households from 325 provision of public health services. randomly selected villages in Uganda. In half of the com- The project fi ndings showed that, as communities began munities, community-based nongovernmental organizations to more extensively monitor the provider, both the quality disseminated report cards on health service provision. and quantity of health service provision improved. One year The project conducted a randomized fi eld experiment on into the program, there were large increases in utilization, sig- increasing community-based monitoring. As communities nifi cant weight-for-age z-score gains of infants, and markedly began to more extensively monitor the provider, both the lower deaths among children. The fi ndings on staff behavior quality and quantity of health service provision improved. suggested that the improvements in quality and quantity of One year into the program, there were large increases in health service delivery resulted from an increased effort by utilization, signifi cant gains in weight-for-age z-scores of in- the staff to serve the community. Overall, the results sug- fants, and markedly lower deaths among children. Overall, gested that community monitoring could play an important the results suggest that community monitoring can play an role in improving service delivery when traditional top-down important role in improving service delivery when traditional supervision is ineffective. top-down supervision is ineffective.

57 The project fi ndings have been presented at London Corruption and Development School of Economics, Oxford, IGIER, MIT, the World Bank, NTNU, Namur, the CEPR/EUDN conference in Paris, and This research project is analyzing the causes of corruption, the BREAD & CESifo conference in Venice. which is shown to be a substantial impediment to develop- Lesotho: AIDS Prevention Messages for Youth ment in poor countries, in order to identify effective policies The proposed impact evaluation would respond to the to combat it. The work builds on existing theoretical mod- urgent need to fi nd an effective preventive message against els of corruption and uses state-of-the-art empirical estima- HIV&AIDS for youth in Lesotho. In Lesotho, 23.5 percent tion techniques to assess its determinants. In particular, us- of adults and 5.3 percent of children between 15-19 years ing individual-level data for 35 countries, one of the studies (7.9% of them girls) are HIV infected (estimates from the investigates the microeconomic determinants of attitudes DHS 2004). toward corruption. Another analysis looks at corruption and The String Game story is a communication tool that high- economic openness, investigating whether the presence lights the many issues that have an effect on the spread of of barriers to international trade and capital fl ows is associ- the HIV and AIDS pandemic. The story also seeks to engage ated with higher corruption. A third contribution examines people in an open conversation pertaining to these issues. the role of trade tariffs, explicitly accounting for the interac- In 2005, UNICEF Lesotho implemented the String Game tion between importers and corrupt customs offi cials. It ar- story in 10 districts and the project intended to impact ap- gues that setting tariffs at a uniform level not only limits the proximately 60,000 people. ability of public offi cials to misclassify imported goods and The proposed project would compare results for three thereby extract bribes from importers, but also can deliver types of communities: those that do not receive the String higher government revenue and welfare than a Ramsey tariff Game intervention, those that use the String Game story and structure when corruption is pervasive. emphasize abstinence and fi delity, and those that use the This project provides evidence on important correlates of String Game and emphasize safe sex. In addition to study- corruption and on the policies that can be used to tackle it. ing the effect of the abstinence and fi delity versus safe sex For example, the fi ndings show that a uniform trade tariff is on changing children’s behavior, the evaluation could also in- a welfare improving way to tackle the trade-off governments clude an evaluation of other components of the String Game face between optimally set, differentiated tariff rates and the (for example, parental involvement). distortions that public offi cials can introduce by exploiting The intervention design and the evaluation design have them. The analysis shows that these recommendations can be been discussed with the Government of Lesotho and UNI- readily generalized to other tax and tariff-setting situations. CEF. The research protocol is currently submitted to the Le- The project fi ndings have been presented at the World sotho Ethics Committee. Bank Economists’ Forum, Washington, D.C.; the Southeast- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- ern Economic Association conference, Washington, D.C.; the opment and Public Services Team —Damien de Walque European Public Choice Society conference; and various ([email protected]), (formerly Jakob Svensson), World Bank seminars. Southern Africa Team—Ritva Reinikka, and Post Confl ict Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and & Social Development Team—Carolyn Winter. With Jakob Investment Team—Roberta Gatti ([email protected]). Svensson, Stockholm University, Swedish; Martina Björk- With Stefano Paternostro and Jamele Rigolini. man, Bocconi University; Lucia Corno, Bocconi University; Project Code: P049731. Frances Nsonzi, Abel Ojoo, Anthony Wasswa, James Kanyesi- Completion date: June 2008. gye; and IIES, Stockholm University Project Code: P089386. Publications Completion date: June 2007. Gatti, Roberta. 2004. “Explaining Corruption: Are Open Coun- tries Less Corrupt?” Journal of International Development 16: Publication 851-61. Bjorkman, Martina, and Jakob Svensson. 2007. “Power to ______. 2006. “Corruption and Trade Tariffs, or a Case for Uni- the People: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experi- form Tariffs.” Policy Research Working Paper 2216. World ment of a Community-Based Monitoring Project in Ugan- Bank, Washington, D.C. da.” Policy Research Working Paper 4268. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

58 Information and Voice tor and Its Effect on Test Scores.” Institute for International Economic Studies Seminar Series, Stockholm University. This research project tested the hypothesis that innovations Reinikka, Ritva. 2005. “Tracking Surveys: The Power of Infor- in the governance of social services may yield the highest mation.” International Institute of Educational Planning return, because the delivery of such services in many poor Newsletter XXIII(4, October-December). http://www.unes- developing countries is often plagued by ineffi ciencies and co.org/iiep/eng/newsletter/2005/octe05.pdf. corruption. Reinikka, Ritva, and Jakob Svensson. 2005. “Fighting Corrup- The analysis used Ugandan data from two public expendi- tion to Improve Schooling: Evidence from a Newspaper ture tracking surveys. It also used data from an unusual policy Campaign in Uganda.” Journal of the European Economic experiment to increase transparency—a newspaper campaign Association 3(2-3): 259-67. aimed at providing schools and parents with information to ———. 2006a. “How Corruption Affects Service Delivery and monitor local offi cials’ handling of education grants from the What Can Be Done About It.” In Susan Rose-Ackerman, ed. central government. The project linked the reduction in cap- International Handbook on the Economics of Corruption. Ed- ture of education funds as a result of the campaign to changes ward Elgar. in school specifi c outcomes (enrollment and test scores). ———. 2006b. “Survey Techniques to Measure and Understand More than 20 countries in different regions have imple- Corruption.” World Development 34(2, February). mented public expenditure tracking surveys or are in the pro- ———. Forthcoming. “Improving Schooling by Combating Cor- cess of doing so. This work has shifted attention from budget ruption: Evidence from a Newspaper Campaign in Uganda.” allocations to actual spending and possible capture along the Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Development way. It has also highlighted new tools for increasing transpar- Research Group, Washington, D.C. ency, such as information campaigns. Several countries, including Cambodia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Tanzania, have intro- Local Governance in India duced countrywide initiatives such as newspaper campaigns to improve public information on public spending. This research project’s objective is to conduct a compre- In collaboration with the International Institute for Edu- hensive analysis of democratic village governments (gram cational Planning and the World Bank’s Development Re- panchayats) in rural India. The project conducted a survey search Group, the World Bank Institute organized a course on of 500 villages and 8,000 households in 2002. Much of the public expenditure tracking surveys in education in Cambo- analysis is based on this survey. In 2004 the project revisited dia in June 2004, attended by a large number of researchers the villages and did a small survey focusing on village sanita- and civil servants from Cambodia, Kenya, the Lao People’s tion. In 2004-2006, recorded and transcribed public village Democratic Republic, and Mongolia. This course was repeat- meetings from the full sample. ed in South Africa in 2005. The project fi ndings have been The project fi ndings show that affi rmative action for dis- presented at the 2005 MacArthur Research Network on In- advantaged groups and women works by improving targeting equality and Economic Performance Meeting in Kenya; the of private transfers to scheduled castes and tribes. Programs 2005 CEPR Annual Public Policy Symposium in Milan; the that provide private benefi ts—such as toilets, housing, and Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administra- transfers to the poor and disadvantaged—are more likely tion, Bergen, Norway; and workshops in Uganda and South to reach discriminated castes when the gram panchayat has Africa. a president from a seat that is reserved for someone from a Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- disadvantaged caste. This suggests that caste reservations are opment and Public Services Team—Jakob Svensson (jsvens- effective in including disadvantaged groups into the purview [email protected]), Ritva Reinikka, and Carolyn Winter. of local government. The fi ndings also show that reserving With Martina Björkman, Institute for International Eco- presidencies for women candidates is conditioned by the in- nomic Studies, Stockholm University; Frances Nsonzi; and stitutional environment. That is, it is more effective in vil- Abel Ojoo. lages that are not dominated by upper castes, that have a Project Code: P076949. more mature panchayat system, and where women have some Completion date: June 2006. political experience. Additional fi ndings point to the importance of village lit- Publications eracy, more-educated politicians, fi scal decentralization, and Björkman, Martina. 2005. “Public Funding in the Educational Sec- the level of inequality in the villages.

59 Ongoing work includes an in-depth analysis of village meet- Absenteeism of Teachers and Health Workers ings, an analysis of social institutions at the village level, and a randomized trial of an intervention to strengthen This research project is investigating the absenteeism of village governments. public employees – teachers and health workers – to learn Project fi ndings have been presented at seminars at the why increased resource inputs in human development do World Bank, Washington, D.C.; the University of California— not translate more directly into better development out- Berkeley; Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut; London comes. One weak link is the behavior of teachers and health School of Economics; Harvard University; the University of workers. Staff absenteeism is widely believed to block im- Maryland; the Institute of Social and Economic Change, proved outcomes, especially in South Asia. Because staff Bangalore; and Delhi School of Economics, Delhi. compensation often makes up 70 to 90 percent of recurrent Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— budgets in education, this is a key budget issue as well as a Vijayendra Rao ([email protected]). With Radu Ban, performance issue. London School of Economics; Tim Besley, London School The project set out to develop systematic cross-country of Economics; Rohini Pande, Harvard University; Paromita evidence on the extent of teacher and health worker absence. Sanyal, Harvard University; and SRI-IRMB, Delhi, India. The project designed and carried out surveys of nationally Project Code: P088179. representative samples of primary schools and health clin- Completion date: Ongoing. ics in six countries (Bangladesh, Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Peru, and Uganda). The survey teams made surprise visits Publications and directly monitored the absence or presence of teachers Ban, Radu, and Vijayendra Rao. 2007. “The Political Construc- and health workers. The project also carried out companion tion of Caste.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. surveys of a small number of experts and providers in a num- ———. Forthcoming. “Tokenism vs. Agency? The Impact of ber of the countries to gather data on relevant institutions Women’s Reservations on Village Democracies in South In- and provide information that would assist in interpreting the dia.” Economic Development and Cultural Change. results. Analysis of the survey data has used a variety of es- Besley, Tim, Rohini Pande, Lupin Rahman, and Vijayendra Rao. timation techniques – mostly standard multivariate ordinary 2004. “The Politics of Public Good Provision: Evidence least squares and probit regressions, but also hierarchical lin- from Indian Local Governments.” Journal of the European ear model analysis. Averaging across the six countries, about Economic Association 2-23. 19 percent of teachers and 35 percent of health workers were Besley, Tim, Rohini Pande, and Vijayendra Rao. 2005a. “Partici- absent from their facilities. patory Democracy in Action: Survey Evidence from Rural In addition to establishing the fi rst internationally compa- India.” Journal of the European Economic Association 3(2-3, rable national provider-absence rates, the project has explored April/May): 648-57. correlates of absence within and across countries. A key rela- ———. 2005b. “Political Selection and the Quality of Gov- tionship that has emerged is that absence rates for teachers ernment: Evidence from Rural India.” World Bank, in poorer regions and countries are typically higher than in Washington, D.C. wealthier areas (a pattern not seen among health workers). ———. 2005c. Report on The Political Economy of Gram Panchayats Other relationships in the data -- such as the fi ndings that bet- in South India. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ter infrastructure quality and more frequent top-down moni- ———. 2007. “The Political Economy of Gram Panchayats in toring (inspections) often predict lower absence – may point South India.” Economic and Political Weekly. the way toward possible means of ad- Kadekodi, Gopal K., Ravi Kanbur, and Vijayendra Rao. 2007. dressing absence. “Assessing the Karnataka Model of Development.” In Go- The project fi ndings have been presented at GDN Annu- pal K. Kadekodi, Ravi Kanbur, and Vijayendra Rao, eds. al Meetings, Delhi (January 2004); Network on South Asian Challenges of Karnataka’s Development. New Delhi: Academic Politics and Political Economy, Paris (July 2004); NEUDC Foundation Press. annual conference, Montreal (October 2004); World Bank- Rao, Vijayendra. 2007. “Symbolic Public Goods and the Coordi- Harvard PEPG conference, Cambridge (October 2004); nation of Collective Action: A Comparison of Local Devel- CIES conference, Stanford (March 2005); NBER Education opment in India and Indonesia.” In Pranab Bardhan and Isha Workshop, Cambridge (April 2005); Oxford CSAE Confer- Ray, eds. Contested Commons: Conversations between Economists ence, Oxford (June 2005); LACEA annual meetings, Paris and Anthropologists. Blackwell Publishers. (October 2005); Harvard University (2004-2006); Indian

60 Ministry of Human Resource Development (January 2004); Rogers, F. Halsey, Lorena Alcazar, Nazmul Chaudhury, Jeffrey University of Mumbai, Mumbai (July 2004); Administrative S. Hammer, Michael Kremer, and Karthik Muralidharan. Staff College of India (July 2004); Andhra Pradesh School Forthcoming. “Why Are Teachers Absent? Probing Service Education, Hyderabad (July 2004); International Institute Delivery in Peruvian Primary Schools.” International Journal for Educational Planning, Paris (October 2005); Kyoto Uni- of Educational Research. versity (February 2007); and various World Bank seminars. Rogers, F. Halsey, José Lopez-Calix, Nazmul Chaudhury, Jeffrey Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services Hammer, Nancy Córdoba, Michael Kremer, and Karthik Mu- Team—F. Halsey Rogers ([email protected]), Jef- ralidharan. 2004. “Teacher Absence and Incentives in Pri- frey Hammer, and Nazmul Chaudhury. With Michael Kre- mary Education: Primary Education Results from a National mer, Karthik Muralidharan, Konstantin Styrin, Julie Hwang Teacher Tracking Survey in Ecuador.” Report 28911-EC. Gluck, Emily Oster, and Alicia Bannon, all of Harvard Uni- Ecuador: Creating Fiscal Space for Poverty Reduction: A Fiscal versity; Mona Steffen; Anjali Oza, Massachusetts Institute Management and Public Expenditure Review, Volume 2. World of Technology; Hai Anh Dang, University of Minnesota; Hi- Bank, Washington, D.C. mani Pruthi; and Sonya Carleyolsen. Suryadarma, Daniel, Asep Suryahadi, Sudarno Sumarto, and F. Project Code: P082372. Halsey Rogers. 2006. “Improving Student Performance in Completion date: Ongoing. Public Primary Schools in Developing Countries: Evidence from Indonesia.” Education Economics 14(4): 401-29. Publications Usman, Akhmadi Syaikhu, and Daniel Suryadarma. 2004. Chaudhury, Nazmul and Jeffrey S. Hammer. 2004. “Ghost Doc- “When Teachers Are Absent: Where Do They Go and What tors: Absenteeism in Rural Bangladeshi Health Facilities.” Is the Impact on Students?” In Akhmadi Syaikhu Usman World Bank Economic Review 18(3): 423-41. and Daniel Suryadarma, SMERU Field Report (April). Chaudhury, Nazmul, Jeffrey Hammer, Michael Kremer, Karthik SMERU: Jakarta. Muralidharan, and F. Halsey Rogers. 2006. “Is There a Doc- tor in the House?” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Governance and Service Delivery ______. 2006. “Missing in Action: Teacher and Health Worker Absence in Developing Countries.” Journal of Economic Per- This research project was part of a broader research effort spectives 20(1): 91-116. in the World Bank on service delivery. It addressed two Dang, Hai Anh, and F. Halsey Rogers. 2007. “What Do Teachers main questions: What kind of accountability and oversight Want, and Does It Matter? Job Satisfaction and Employee mechanisms between different tiers of government, and be- Performance.” Development Research Group, World Bank, tween service providers and benefi ciaries, are conducive to Washington, D.C. improved service delivery? And what effects do information Kremer, Michael, and Karthik Muralidharan. 2004. “Teacher Ab- and the “voice” of different users have on the quantity and sence in India.” Learning Curve: Newsletter from Azim Premji quality of services? Foundation (November). The project collected and analyzed nationally representa- ______. Forthcoming. “Public and Private Schools in Rural In- tive survey data from Gallup International and Afrobarometer dia.” In Paul Peterson and Rajashri Chakrabarti, eds. School on the incidence of problems encountered by users of pub- Choice International. lic health and education services. Problems included absen- Kremer, Michael, Karthik Muralidharan, Nazmul Chaudhury, teeism (of doctors and teachers), requirements for unoffi cial Jeffrey Hammer, and F. Halsey Rogers. 2004. “Teacher Ab- payments, poor availability of supplies (drugs, textbooks), sence in India.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. and poor quality of facilities (clinics, schools). The analysis ______. 2005. “Teacher Absence in India: A Snapshot.” Journal investigated the impact of electoral rules, other political in- of the European Economic Association 3(2-3). stitutions, and the nature and extent of mass political partici- Muralidharan, Karthik. 2006. “Public-private Partnerships for pation on the incidence of such service delivery failures. Universal Quality Education.” Seminar (India, September). The data collected were reported in the World Bank’s ______. 2006. “Reward Teachers but Ensure Output.” The In- Global Monitoring Report 2005 (Washington, D.C., 2005) dian Express (June 30). and have served as inputs in Country Assistance Strategies, Rogers, F. Halsey. 2006. “Missing in Action: Teacher and Medi- Country Policy and Institutional Assessments, and Institu- cal Provider Absence in Developing Countries.” World Bank tional and Governance Reviews focusing on service delivery Research Web site Feature Article (March). issues. The data are posted on the Web, along with other data

61 relating to governance and service delivery issues, at http:// Analyse des Résultats d’Enquête.” World Bank, Washing- www1.worldbank.org/publicsector/index.cfm. ton, D.C. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Develop- ———. 2006. “Leakage of Public Resources in the Health Sec- ment Team—Gershon Feder ([email protected]), and tor: An Empirical Investigation of Chad.” Development Re- Public Services Team—Stephen Knack. search Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Project Code: P076813. ———. 2007. “Bypassing Health Providers: The Quest for Bet- Completion date: June 2006. ter Price and Quality of Health Services in Chad.” Develop- ment Research Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Public Expenditure and Service Delivery in Chad Nongovernmental Organizations as Service Providers in This broad research project is investigating who receives Developing Countries public resources in a weak institutional environment and the presence of soft budget allocation rules. The research also fo- Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have become pro- cuses on the role of public spending in improving access and gressively more important in developing countries. In many, quality of public services. The project is studying the deter- NGOs now outnumber fi rms and account for growing shares minants of the receipt of public resources in poor countries of economic activity. Yet there has been little economic re- and how the receipt (or its lack thereof) impacts the quality search on NGO activity, and what there has been has focused of health supply, then demand for health, and ultimately the on activity in industrial countries. This research project in- health status of the population. vestigated fundamental questions about NGO activity in de- The fi ndings show that although the bulk of the health veloping and transition economies: Should governments and budget is earmarked for the primary health sector, it receives donors subsidize or favor NGO activity? And if so, how much, only 1 percent of the public health resources. Furthermore, and through what mechanisms? there is a strong link between the receipt of public resources The project developed a theoretical framework to explain and health output in terms of number of patients treated. NGO activity and assess whether subsidizing or favoring The likely channel through which this happens is a decrease NGOs would be appropriate for reasons of economic ef- in the price of pharmaceuticals. Indeed, facilities that are fi ciency or equity. It also designed and carried out country recipients of public resources charge a signifi cantly lower studies analyzing NGO activities in Bangladesh and Uganda. mark-up on a random list of important drugs than facilities The country studies surveyed a random sample of NGOs and that do not receive any resources from the administration. collected data on staffi ng, activities, grants received, uses and The ongoing research is analyzing how in countries with sources of funds, and community satisfaction with NGOs. a weak institutional environment, public resources seldom The research found that NGOs in Uganda tended to fully contribute to the development of the country be- be small, underfunded (a few NGOs attracted most donor cause of the hurdles between the resources and their initial funds), and involved primarily in consciousness raising. By intended benefi ciaries. contrast, NGOs in Bangladesh were larger, fi nanced with Project fi ndings have been presented at conferences at internally generated funds, and almost universally involved the World Bank, Washington, D.C. (April and November in microfi nance. Surveys showed that while satisfaction with 2006); and Oxford University, Oxford, U.K. (March 2006 and NGOs was generally high, NGOs were less accessible to peo- March 2007). ple in poorer communities. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- The fi ndings have been discussed with World Bank staff, opment and Public Services Team—Waly Wane (wwane@ representatives of NGOs and the two governments, and the worldbank.org). With Bernard Gauthier, HEC Montreal, broader donor communities in Dhaka and Kampala. The Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche pour la Dynamique des fi ndings on Uganda have been assisting the government in Organisations, Chad. designing new policies for NGO sector governance. Those in Project Code: P094472. Bangladesh were incorporated into the World Bank’s World Completion date: June 2008. Development Report 2004: Making Services Work for Poor People (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003). Publications In both Bangladesh and Uganda, the surveys were imple- Gauthier, Bernard, and Waly Wane. 2005. “Suivi des Dépenses mented by local consultants, and the research strategy was Publiques à Destination dans le Secteur Santé au Tchad: designed in collaboration with government ministries.

62 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Servic- asymmetries between professional consultant and agent, and es Team—Varun Gauri ([email protected]) and Ritva between agent and government. Reinikka. With Marcel Fafchamps, Abigail Barr, and Trudi Although directed primarily at conditions and realities in Owens, Oxford University; Ray Fisman and Julia Galef, Co- Sub-Saharan Africa, and most specifi cally in Kenya and lumbia University; and Anna Fruttero, New York University. South Africa, the research sought to draw at least some more Project Code: P071458. general conclusions and to formulate some specifi c guide- Completion date: December 2005. lines that would be relevant for World Bank professional procurement globally. A follow-on effort was to develop pro- Publications curement guidelines and “how-to’s” for the World Bank’s Barr, Abigail, and Marcel Fafchamps. Forthcoming. “A Client procurement sector. Community Assessment of NGOs in Uganda.” Journal of De- Responsibility: Procurement Policy and Service Group—Giovan- velopment Studies. ni Casartelli ([email protected]),.Alfonso Sanchez, Barr, Abigail, Marcel Fafchamps, and Trudi Owens. 2005. “NGOs Pamela Bigart, Alison Micheli, and Duncan Smith. With Ste- in Uganda.” World Development 33(4, April): 657-79. phen Schwenke, Greg Callman, and Minka Vrba, University Fruttero, Anna, and Varun Gauri, with Anna Fruttero. 2005. “The of Stellenbosch, South Africa. Strategic Choices of NGOs: Location Decisions in Rural Project Code: P099162. Bangladesh.” Journal of Development Studies 41(5, July). Completion date: June 2007. Gauri, Varun, and Julia Galef. 2005. “NGOs in Bangladesh: Ac- tivities, Resources, and Governance” World Development De- Development Impact Evaluation Initiative cember 33(12). The Development Impact Evaluation initiative is a collabor- Prevention of Corruption in the Selection and ative effort in the World Bank involving thematic networks, Employment of Professional Consultants - Inception regional units, and the research group under the guidance of Report the Bank’s Chief Economist. It is oriented at: (1) Increasing the number of Bank-supported impact evaluations, particu- The pursuit of integrity in procurement selection requires larly in strategic areas and themes; (2) Increasing the abil- the existence of an ethical culture in the public sector as ity of staff to design and carry out such evaluations in close well as the professional business sector. The implications collaboration with government agencies in developing coun- arising from this research project show the need for estab- tries; and (3) Building a process of systematic learning on ef- lishing governance that promotes ethical behavior, and the fective development interventions based on lessons learned need to review the role of the World Bank in client country from completed evaluations. procurement. A key aspect of the initiative is to organize clusters of im- The project conducted research on promoting integrity pact evaluations of priority interventions in a coordinated in the procurement of professional consultants working on fashion across countries in different regions of the world. This World Bank projects. The research used interviews and fi eld- provides a unique opportunity to demonstrate the learning work in South Africa, Kenya, and Washington, D.C. to analyze power of impact evaluation efforts both in terms of identify- where in the procurement process—the process of selecting ing what works and what does not work, and obtaining robust and contracting professionals— “opportunity points” are to measures of performance to be expected from successful pro- be found, and why. These opportunity points can be either grams. The current list of themes includes: education service good or bad: in some cases providing openings for corrupt delivery reforms, conditional cash transfers, urban upgrading, or fraudulent practices to occur (collusion, bribing, coercion, HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment, early childhood devel- infl uence peddling, etc.) and in other cases providing distinct opment, malaria control programs, rural roads, rural electri- opportunities to introduce incentives for integrity and to rec- fi cation, local development, youth school-to-work transition, ognize consistent past performance of the highest profes- and pay-for-performance in health. sional standards. Evaluations involve both experimental and non-exper- The research evaluated existing procurement procedures, imental methods. Household surveys are the main source closely examining the evolving and culturally defi ned con- of data. cepts of professionalism, the degree of freedom of the pro- Beyond the results of the individual evaluations (which curing agent from his/her principal, and the information are not covered here), the main result of DIME has been

63 the sharp increase in the quantity of impact evaluations and Gertler, Paul, Sebastián Martinez, and Marta Rubio-Codina. the broad interest and demand for this kind of research work 2006. “Investing Cash Transfers to Raise Long Term Liv- across regions and sectors. ing Standards.” Policy Research Working Paper 3994. World When used strategically to test the effectiveness of spe- Bank, Washington, D.C. cifi c approaches in addressing key development challenges, Gertler, Paul, Harry Patrinos, and Marta Rubio-Codina. 2006. impact evaluations constitute the preferred approach to as- “Empowering Parents to Improve Education: Evidence sessing results. Furthermore, they can also provide critical in- from Rural Mexico.” Policy Research Working Paper 3935. puts for cost-benefi t estimates not just for the programs being World Bank, Washington, D.C. evaluated but for other programs following similar designs. Gine, Xavier, and Dean S. Karlan. 2006. “Group versus Indi- Responsibility: Development Economics, Offi ce of the Vice vidual Liability: A Field Experiment in the Philippines.” President—Ariel Fiszbein (Afi [email protected]), Policy Research Working Paper 4008. World Bank, Washing- Niall Keleher, Coralie Gevers, Christhel Vermeersch, Uwe ton, D.C. Deichman, Deon Filmer, and Juliana Santos. With Kelly Paxson, Christina, and Norbert Schady. 2007. “Does Money Jones, Robert Lahey, Teodoro Zaltsman, Paul Gertler, and Matter? The Effects of Cash Transfers on Child Health and Martha Rubio. Development in Rural Ecuador.” Policy Research Working Project Code: P089060. Paper 4226. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Completion date: June 2011. Schady, Norbert, and Maria Caridad Araujo. 2006. “Cash Transfers, Conditions, School Enrollment, and Child Work: Evidence Publications from a Randomized Experiment in Ecuador.” Policy Re- Armecin, Graeme, Jere R. Behrman, Paulita Duazo, Sharon Ghu- search Working Paper 3930. World Bank, Washington, D.C. man, Socorro Gultiano, Elizabeth M. King, and Nannette Skoufias, Emmanuel, and Vincenzo di Maro. 2006. “Condi- Lee. 2006. “Early Childhood Development through an Inte- tional Cash Transfers, Adult Work Incentives, and Pov- grated Program: Evidence from the Philippines.” Policy Re- erty.” Policy Research Working Paper 3973. World Bank, search Working Paper 3922. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Barrera-Osorio, Felipe. 2007. “The Impact of Private Provision Skoufias, Emmanuel, and Joseph Shapiro. 2006. “Evaluating the of Public Education: Empirical Evidence from Bogota’s Impact of Mexico’s Quality Schools Program: The Pitfalls of Concession Schools.” Policy Research Working Paper 4121. Using Non Experimental Data.” Policy Research Working World Bank, Washington, D.C. Paper 4036. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Berlinski, Samuel, Sebastián Galiani, and Marco Manacorda. Wagstaff, Adam. 2007. “Health Insurance for the Poor: Initial Im- 2007. “Giving Children a Better Start: Preschool Attendance pacts of Vietnam’s Health Care Fund for the Poor.” Policy Re- and School-age Profiles.” Policy Research Working Paper search Working Paper 4134. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 4240. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Wagstaff, Adam, Magnus Lindelow, Jun Gao, Ling Xu, and Cattaneo, Matias D., Sebastián Galiano, Paul J. Gertler, Sebastián Juncheng Qian. 2007. “Extending Health Insurance to the Martinez, and Rocio Titiunik. 2007. “Housing, Health, and Rural Population: An Impact Evaluation of China’s New Co- Happiness.” Policy Research Working Paper 4214. World operative Medical Scheme.” Policy Research Working Paper Bank, Washington, D.C. 4150. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Cerdan-Infantes, Pedro, and Christel Vermeersch. 2007. “More Time Is Better: An Evaluation of the Full Time School Pro- The Impact of Institutions on Development gram in Uruguay.” Policy Research Working Paper 4267. World Bank, Washington, D.C. This ongoing, multi-year research project is investigating Chaudhury, Nazmul, and Dilip Parajuli. 2006. “Conditional the effect of political institutions, and political competition Cash Transfers and Female Schooling: The Impact of the generally, on development. The project extends previous Female School Stipend Program on Public School Enroll- research in three directions. First, it is fi nding new areas of ments in Punjab, Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper application, such as to civil war. Second, the project further 4102. World Bank, Washington, D.C. explores the sources of development-oriented political com- Filmer, Deon, and Norbert Schady. 2006. “Getting Girls into petition. For example, micro-evidence from India also dem- School: Evidence from a Scholarship Program in Cambodia.” onstrates that where parties are strong (relative to individual Policy Research Working Paper 3910. World Bank, Wash- legislators), effort spent to provide narrow benefi ts to target- ington, D.C. ed groups fails.

64 Third, the project is studying decision-making and politi- Keefer, Philip, and Razvan Vlaicu. 2008. “Democracy, Credibil- cal competition in non-democracies. This work has focused ity and Clientelism.” Journal of Law, Economics and Organi- on the puzzle of high investment in countries lacking formal zation 24(2, fall). institutions for the protection of property rights. The resolution of this puzzle has, once again, been the nature of politi- Poverty Dynamics & Service Delivery -Evaluation of cal parties, this time the degree of institutionalization of the Completed Research Projects ruling party in non-democracies. This insight has been supported by empirical evidence that investment is signifi cantly This research project evaluated completed studies funded higher in non-democracies with older ruling parties and that through the Knowledge for Change Program. The purpose expropriation risk is lower. This line of research continues to of the evaluation was to determine whether the projects en- shed light on optimal policy choices in different institutional hanced understanding of development processes and policy; and social settings (including post-confl ict societies) and on if they were successful in achieving objectives specifi ed in trade-offs in institution building. the proposal and addressed in the work program; and wheth- The project fi ndings have been presented at the American er the objectives and research were appropriate for the ob- Political Science Association; Washington University, St. Lou- jectives. The overall project covered fi ve parts: two compila- is; University of California, Los Angeles; International Society tion studies that collected existing data; two data collection of New Institutional Economics; the University of Giessen efforts based on fi eld surveys; and study that had originally and the KfW Bank of Germany; the Peace Research Institute been set up as a type of compilation but was re-oriented as a of Oslo; the Ministry of Finance, Sudan; the University of fi eld survey. Lund; the University of Basel; and Stanford University. The fi ndings showed that the fi ve projects had the po- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and In- tential to make important contributions to both research and vestment Team—Philip Keefer ([email protected]). development policy. The project highlighted the need for With Razvan Vlaicu, University of Maryland; and Scott Gehl- research to have a longitudinal perspective in order to bet- bach, University of Wisconsin. ter understand how individuals and families change their Project Code: PO60358. behavior over time and why short-term decisions might be Completion date: Ongoing. detrimental to long-term change (development). It also highlighted the need to understand the fundamental causes of Publications institutional change (or lack thereof) since institutional defi - Keefer, Philip. 2004. “What Does Political Economy Tell Us ciencies are often the fundamental reason for ineffi cient de- about Economic Development -- and Vice Versa?” In Nelson velopment policy. Polsby, ed. The Annual Review of Political Science. Palo Alto. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- ______. 2007a. “Beyond Elections: Politics, Development and opment and Public Services Team—Elizabeth M. King (Ek- the Poor Performance of Poor Democracies.” In Carles Boix [email protected]). With Christer Gunnarsson, Ekonomisk- and Susan Stokes, eds. Oxford Encyclopedia of Comparative historiska Institutionen, Sweden. Politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Project Code: P096359. ______. 2007b. “Beyond Legal Origin and Checks and Balances: Completion date: June 2006. Political Credibility, Citizen Information and Financial Sec- tor Development.” In Stephen Haber, Douglass North, and Publication Barry Weingast, eds. Political Institutions and Financial Devel- Gunnarsson, Christer. 2005. “Evaluation of Knowledge for opment. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Change (KCP) Funded Projects on Poverty Dynamics and ______. 2007c. “Clientelism, Credibility and the Policy Choices Basic Service Delivery.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. of Young Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 51(4, October): 804-21. Evaluation of Community Managed Schools in Nepal ______. 2007d. “Elections, Special Interests and Financial Cri- sis.” International Organization 61(3, summer): 607-42. In 2002, the Government of Nepal embarked on a radical ______. 2007e. “Governance and Economic Growth.” In Win- policy reform to devolve school management responsibilities ters and Yusuf, eds. Dancing with Giants: China, India and the down to the community level. No other country has conduct- Global Economy. Washington: World Bank and Institute of ed such a comprehensive program of ‘handing-over’ manage- Policy Studies. ment of the public school system to the community.

65 The objective of this research project was to evaluate the nance, and other government agencies; the World Bank data- impact of this initiative on schooling access, equity, quality, base; surveys conducted by counterparts or contracted out; as and governance. The project measured schooling and other well as other publicly released sources. relevant indicators both at baseline (before the implemen- Since its inception, this ongoing research program has fo- tation of the interventions) and after the intervention at a cused on one or two key issues each year. follow-up round. In addition, because community transfer is For example, China’ Ministry of Finance formally re- an entirely voluntary process, the project identifi ed an ex- quested the World Bank to work on two proposed initia- ogenous source of variation in school management systems. tives. The fi rst was to conduct a rolling research program to This was done through random allocation of advocacy by produce more in-depth policy analyses and practical policy nongovernmental organizations (to promote the transfer) in formulations. The second was to establish the China Public part of the sample schools. In econometric terms, this advo- Finance Forum on a biennial basis, to be jointly sponsored cacy acted as an instrumental variable for choice to transfer by the World Bank and the Ministry of Finance of China to into the community management option. promote international exchanges. The project also includes The baseline survey for 80 pilot school/communities was work on education and lifelong learning. conducted in late 2005; the pilot intervention using advocacy Project fi ndings have been presented at the Rural Public and community outreach carried out by NGO groups in half Finance seminar held at the Ministry of Finance in Beijing of those school communities was completed in September and World Bank (October 2005); “The Roundtable on Public 2006; and a follow-up survey for this sample was planned for Finance” held by the Chinese Ministry of Finance and the later this summer 2007. World Bank in Beijing (June 2006); and a seminar organized Responsibility: South Asia, Human Development Sector— by the World Bank Institute and the Chinese National De- Nazmul Chaudhury ([email protected]), and Dilip velopment and Reform Commission in Beijing (June 2007). Parajuli. With New Era, Household, Community, and Facility Responsibility: Offi ce of Sr. Vice President Development Eco- Survey Firm, Nepal; CPREC (NGO Intervention Firm), Ne- nomics/ Chief Economist, DECVP—Shuilin Wang (swang2@ pal; and Paul Gertler, University of California at Berkeley. worldbank.org). With Heng-Fu Zou. Project Code: P098709. Project Code: P075710. Completion date: June 2007. Completion date: June 2005.

Public Finance Decentralization in China Publications Dalhman, Carl, Douglas Zeng Zhihua, and Shuilin Wang. 2006. China has been recognized by many as the most successful “The Challenges of Lifelong Learning for Education Fi- story in the developing world in terms of its economic growth nance in China.” In Public Finance in China: Reform and Growth and poverty reduction. Even so, China remains a develop- for a Harmonious Society. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ing country, with more than 135 million people living on less ______. 2007. “Enhancing China’s Competitiveness through than $1 a day. It also faces daunting challenges in maintaining Lifelong Learning.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. rapid growth, managing the resource demands and environ- Lou, Jiwei, and Shuilin Wang. 2007. “Public Finance in China: mental consequences of growth, and addressing the resulting Reform and Growth for a Harmonious Society.” World Bank, inequalities in income and opportunity, which could other- Washington, D.C. wise undermine the consensus needed to undertake growth- Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, Baoyun Qiao, Shuilin Wang, and Heng- oriented policy reform. fu Zou. 2006. “China Decentralization Finance Issues: Les- This research program has focused on several issues in sons from International Experiences.” Policy note requested public fi nance including public fi nance decentralization and by the Chinese Ministry of Finance. the provision and delivery of public goods, the role of the ______. 2007. “Local Public Finance in China: Challenges and public fi nance as the role of the state changes; expenditure Policies Options.” Policy Research Working Paper. World and revenue assignments, inter-governmental transfers and Bank, Washington, D.C. relations, fi nancing and provision of public goods such as compulsory education, basic public health, social security Participatory Poverty Assessment and Public Service and protection, innovation, etc. Delivery Statistics, surveys and quality studies. Most of the data were from China’s National Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Fi- This research project combined qualitative and quantitative

66 methods to complement Uganda’s national household survey ability Improve the Quality of Public Service Delivery? Evi- to identify poverty trends, explore the long-term impact of dence from Uganda.” World Development 33(1): 171-91. shocks, and gauge the effectiveness with which public ser- ———. 2005b. “Economic and Welfare Impact of the Abolition vices are provided. of Health User Fees: Evidence from Uganda.” Journal of Af- The project used household level data for Uganda from rican Economies 14(1): 55-91. before and after the abolition of user fees for public health Deininger, K., and J. Okidi. 2003. “Growth and Poverty Reduc- services. It explored the impact of this policy on the ability of tion in Uganda, 1999-2000: Panel Data Evidence.” Develop- different groups to access health services and morbidity out- ment Policy Review 21(4): 481-509. comes. To provide quantitative evidence on the socio-economic implications of AIDS, the project focused on households that received foster children between 1992 and 2000. The project applied panel data econometrics to analyze various rounds of the Uganda National Household Survey as well as an integrity and service delivery survey. The fi ndings showed that abolition of user fees improved access and reduced the probability of sickness in a way that was benefi cial to the poor. Although the challenge of maintaining service quality remained, aggregate benefi ts were estimated to be large. A household’s knowledge about how to report inappropriate behavior by bureaucrats and unsatisfactory quality of services helped not only to reduce the incidence of corruption, but also was associated with signifi cant improvements in service quality. Finally, the addition of a foster child resulted in signifi cant reductions of per capita consumption, income, and household investment, which were more pronounced for the poor. Initial disadvantages in foster children’s access to education for this group were overcome in the course of implementing Universal Primary Education, although new inequalities emerged in access to health services. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- opment Team—Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank. org) and P. Mpuga. With A Crommelynck, University of Leuven; G. Kempaka, Makerere University; I. Faye, Uni- versite d’Auvergne; and John Okidi, Economic Policy Research Center. Project Code: P078125. Completion date: June 2006.

Publications Deininger, K., A. Crommelynck, and G. Kempaka. 2005. “Impact of AIDS on Family Composition, Welfare, and Investment: Evidence from Uganda.” Review of Development Economics 9(3): 303-24. Deininger, K., M. Garcia, and K. Subbarao. 2003. “AIDS-Induced Orphanhood as a Systemic Shock: Magnitude, Impact, and Program Interventions in Africa.” World Development 31(7): 1201-20. Deininger, K., and P. Mpuga. 2005a. “Does Greater Account-

67 Health, Population, and Nutrition

Research on HIV/AIDS Prevention and Treatment Sabine Musange, School of Public Health; Centre for Health Systems Research and Development of Free State Univer- The World Bank has set up a series of prospective impact sity; School of Public Health Rwanda; Center for Global De- evaluations of programs delivering anti-retroviral treatment velopment; and Institute for Economic Growth. in countries in the Treatment Acceleration Project, as well as Project Code: P0100095. in Rwanda, Kenya, South Africa, and India. Completion date: 2009. The impact evaluations are measuring the impact of treatment on the welfare of patients and family members, The Economics of AIDS Epidemics the effects of anti-retroviral treatment on HIV transmission and prevention, the determinants of treatment success, and This research project explored the economics of the HIV/ ways to encourage cost-effectiveness and capacity building AIDS epidemic in the developing world. It focused primarily to reinforce the sustainability of the delivery of anti-retrovi- on projecting the costs and benefi ts of anti-retroviral therapy ral treatment. This research project is collecting longitudinal in India and Thailand. and triangulate data from biomedical records, household sur- In the work on India, the project applied the tools of epi- veys (HIV patients and general population), as well as health demiological projection models to predict the course of the facilities and surveys. HIV/AIDS epidemic until 2023. The projections included The project is helping governments and national research the rate of new infections, the number of years of orphan- institutions evaluate the impact of alternative strategies for hood, and government fi nancing requirements. They also in- scaling up integrated AIDS treatment. The focus is on AIDS cluded the implications of three alternative AIDS treatment treatment outcomes, HIV transmission, preventive behaviors, fi nancing policies for the health burden of AIDS and total and economic and health benefi ts in African countries. The health expenditures in India. project is helping to strengthen national capacity to carry out The lower prices of anti-retroviral therapy and the fact high quality analytical work on the determinants of the HIV/ that therapy can reduce transmission by the treated patient AIDS epidemic and on the impact evaluations of HIV/AIDS would imply that such therapy could save healthy years of prevention and treatment strategies. life at a cost of between $146 and $280 a year. Careful moni- Preliminary fi ndings on the impact of anti-retroviral treat- toring of the population’s response to the availability of treatment were presented at the Regional Advisory Panel meet- ment should suggest how to maximize the benefi cial effects ing of the Treatment Acceleration Project, Ghana (January of treatment on risk behavior and how to avoid potentially 2007). Preliminary results from Rwanda on the impact of perverse effects. AIDS prevention and treatment were presented at the HIV/ Of the estimated 38 million people worldwide infected AIDS Implementers Meeting, Kigali, Rwanda (June 2007). with HIV, the World Health Organization says 6 to 8 million Evaluation of the Impact of Anti-Retroviral Treatment could immediately benefi t from ART, but fewer than 1.9 mil- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- lion people are being treated with the therapy. In contrast, velopment and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque by May 2006, Thailand was providing treatment for approxi- ([email protected]), Varun Gauri, and Mead Over. mately 78,000 AIDS patients, more than 90 percent of those With Harounan Kazianga, Mposo Engwassa Ntumbanzondo, in need of treatment. Laeticia Nikiema, Gifty Addico, and Sandra Muchanga. Thailand’s ability to provide ART affordably to more than Project Code: P092890. 80,000 Thais with AIDS resulted from highly effective pre- Completion dates: 2010. vention campaigns over previous years, a vast network of Evaluation of the Impact of AIDS Prevention and Treatment district level hospitals and rural health clinics with the ca- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- pacity to provide widespread treatment, a strong nongov- velopment and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque ernmental organization community that has worked closely ([email protected]), Mead Over, and Markus Gold- with the government on rolling out the expanded ART pro- stein. With Harounan Kazianga; Alok Bhargava, University gram, and the close involvement of people living with HIV/ of Houston; Frikkie Booysen, University of the Free State; AIDS themselves.

68 The project fi ndings have been disseminated through HIV testing facilities, how they should be designed, and presentations at the World Bank, at the International whether they should be subsidized. AIDS Conference in Bangkok (July 2004), and at a confer- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable De- ence on the Health Crisis in South Asia at Yale University velopment and Urban Development Team—Hanan Jacoby (February 2005). ([email protected]). With Mark Gersovitz, Depart- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services ment of Economics, Johns Hopkins University. Team—Mead Over ([email protected]). With Emiko Project Code: P098506. Masaki, University of California at Berkeley. Completion date: December 2007. Project Code: P083321. Completion date: June 2006. Improving the Effectiveness of AIDS Treatment while Strengthening Prevention in Free State Province, South Publications Africa Over, Mead, Peter Heywood, Julian Gold, Indrani Gupta, Sub- hash Hira, and Elliot Marseille. 2004. HIV/AIDS Treatment This research study has three broad objectives: to present and Prevention in India: Modeling the Cost and Consequences. a broader view of treatment success for human immunode- Health, Nutrition, and Population Series. Washington, D.C.: fi ciency virus (HIV), to develop a more complete model of World Bank. the determinants of treatment success, and to understand the Ana Revenga, Mead Over, Emiko Masaki, Wiwat Peerapata- nature of links between treatment and prevention. napokin, Julian Gold, Viroj Tangcharoensathien, and Som- Like all governments whose populations are suffering bat Thanprasertsuk. 2006. The Economics of Effective AIDS from a severe AIDS epidemic, the Free State province of Treatment Evaluating Policy Options for Thailand. Washington, South Africa is confronting the twin challenges of maximiz- D.C.: World Bank. ing the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for those who are already sick, while simultaneously slowing the growth of The Role of Testing in HIV/AIDS Epidemics new infections. Supported by several grants, the Centre for Health Systems Research and Development of Free State This research project has two objectives. First, it models the University has since 2004 been documenting, monitoring, general equilibrium effects of HIV testing. For instance, how evaluating and facilitating the implementation of the Na- do the incentives to test and to engage in risky sexual behav- tional Treatment Plan in the Free State province. ior change as an individual’s potential partners become more This research project incorporates a survey of patients likely to have been tested and condition their actions on that started antiretroviral therapy in the fi rst months of the their test results? And, reciprocally, how does an individual’s launch of the treatment program as well as a survey of the own decision about testing affect his or her behavior? The health care facilities that deliver and monitor that therapy. analysis uses the techniques of micro-economic modeling The research funded under this contract with the Centre for and mathematical epidemiology to obtain qualitative results Health Systems Research and Development builds on an on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic as they depend on dif- existing project by expanding both the scope and depth of ferent policies for HIV testing. data collection activities. The partners in this research pro- Second, the project reviews the epidemiological literature gram are the Centre for Health Systems Research and De- on HIV testing. It uses Demographic and Health Surveys velopment of Free State University, Bloemfontein; the Free and fi eld visits in Africa to provide evidence on how people State Provincial Department of Health, Bloemfontein; and make decisions about testing. In particular, the project inves- the World Bank (Development Research Group and South tigates what knowledge people have about their HIV status Africa Country Unit). independent of a test, the evidence on response to the price The project will collect longitudinal and triangulate data and accessibility of HIV tests, the behavioral implications of from biomedical records, household surveys (HIV patients the bio-chemical properties of the tests, the role of disclosure and the general population), as well as health facilities and of status to partners, and incentives for and obstacles to pre- surveys. The baseline survey was scheduled to start in July- vention of mother to child transmission. The analysis uses August 2007. The project aims to strengthen national capac- the publicly available Demographic and Health Surveys and ity to identify the critical determinants of effective treatment data published in the epidemiological literature. outcomes and the most cost effective ways to deliver HIV/ The project’s fi ndings will bear on the decision to set up AIDS treatment.

69 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- ([email protected]), Mead Over (former World velopment and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque Bank staff), and Markus Goldstein. With Harounan Kazian- ([email protected]), and Mead Over (former World ga; Alok Bhargava, University of Houston; Frikkie Booysen, Bank staff). With Alok Bhargava, University of Houston; University of the Free State; Sabine Musange, School of Frikkie Booysen, University of the Free State; Center for Public Health; Centre for Health Systems Research and De- Global Development (USA); and Centre for Health Systems velopment of Free State University; School of Public Health Research and Development of Free State University. Rwanda; Center for Global Development; Institute for Eco- Project Code: P090173. nomic Growth. Completion date: 2009. Project Code: P0100095. Completion date: 2009. Evaluating the Impact of Antiretroviral Treatment Evaluating the Impact of AIDS Prevention and Treatment This project will help governments and national research Services in Four Countries institutions evaluate the impact of alternative strategies for scaling up integrated treatment of acquired immune defi - This research project had four main objectives. First, it aimed ciency syndrome (AIDS). The project focuses on the effects to contribute to knowledge regarding the effectiveness and of treatment on AIDS treatment outcomes, human immu- costs of selected AIDS program components by applying nodefi ciency virus (HIV) transmission, preventive behav- rigorous evaluation tools to the delivery of these services iors, and economic and health benefi ts on populations in to sample populations in developing countries. The project African countries. measured the impact on the labor supply of the patient and The impact evaluations address questions in four areas. other family members, the schooling of children, and other First, the project will measure the impact of treatment on the welfare indicators in India, Kenya, and South Africa. welfare of patients and family members. Second, the project Second, the project complemented existing support by will analyze the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on the World Bank’s Global HIV/AIDS Program for compre- HIV transmission and prevention. Third, the evaluations will hensive monitoring and evaluation activities with in-depth, identify the determinants of treatment success. And fourth, prospective, randomized, or controlled study of specifi c pro- the fi ndings will suggest ways to encourage cost-effective- gram components. The project analyzed the determinants of ness and capacity building to reinforce the sustainability of patient care-seeking behavior and treatment adherence, and ART delivery and adherence. the quantity and quality and of antiretroviral treatment ser- World Bank researchers have set up a series of prospective vices in India, Kenya, and South Africa. impact evaluations of programs delivering ART in Burkina Third, the analysis investigated what were the most ef- Faso, Ghana, India, Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, and South fi cient approaches to deliver care and support for orphans Africa. This work is being carried out in close collaboration and vulnerable children. The project collected longitudinal with and with the support of the Africa Region (Act Africa and triangulate data from biomedical records and household and MAP/TAP TTLs), the Global AIDS Program, the HD surveys in India, Kenya, and South Africa. It developed a pro- Vice-Presidency, and the World Health Organization and the spective randomized study in Burkina Faso. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. The proj- Analysis of the baseline surveys is ongoing. This research ect will collect longitudinal and triangulate data from bio- project provided seed-money to start additional studies. The medical records, household surveys (HIV patients and the studies will help to strengthen national capacity to identify general population), as well as health facilities and surveys. the critical determinants of effective treatment outcomes In some countries, the project will also undertake and in collaboration with leading international researchers. The evaluate research experiments. These will include perfor- studies will analyze the surveys collected to learn more about mance-based contracting for HIV/AIDS services in health fa- the most cost effective ways to deliver HIV/AIDS treatment cilities in Rwanda, food supplements and community health in resource constrained settings, and about the most effec- workers for supporting adherence to treatment in South Afri- tive prevention and voluntary counseling and testing strat- ca, and reminders by text messages for improving adherence egies. The analysis will be used to provide policy recom- in Kenya. mendations, highlighting the importance of evidence-based Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- policy- making. velopment and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De-

70 velopment and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque chael Mills ([email protected]). With African Popula- ([email protected]) and Mead Over. With Mattias tion and Health Research Centre, Nairobi Lundberg, Harounan Kazianga, Alok Bhargava, Peter Glick Project Code: P100038. Frederik le Roux Booysen, Mposo Engwassa Ntumban- Completion date: June 2007. zondo, Amadou Bassiro Diallo, Sergio Bautista Arredondo, and Fei Gao. Understanding Adult Mortality in Developing Countries Project Code: P088316. Completion date: December 2007. This research project will shed light on three general sets of correlates and determinants of adult mortality. First, it is The Plight of Orphans and Vulnerable Children in Nairobi documenting the socio-economic gradient in adult mortality Urban Slums in the Face of HIV/AIDS in developing countries. This effort has collected data for 45 countries on socio-economic differences in health, nutrition, This research project provided evidence to inform current and population. The data include indicators on child mortal- and future policy initiatives for the welfare of orphans and ity, malnutrition, fertility, immunization coverage, treatment vulnerable children in poor urban areas. The project sought of diarrhea and acute respiratory infections, antenatal care to answer two main questions. First, should interventions be visits and delivery attendance, use of modern contraception, specifi cally targeted toward orphans and vulnerable children as well as knowledge of HIV/AIDS prevention. or their families, and if so, which types (one-parent orphans, Second, the project is documenting mortality and the two-parent orphans, children with one parent dying of AIDS, HIV/AIDS epidemic. The project will compare fi ndings etc.)? Second, relative to other children, and controlling for about excess adult mortality with measures of HIV preva- household-specifi c factors such as socio-economic status, lence. This work will take advantage of the more recently what are the main areas of vulnerability of orphans and vul- collected demographic and health sero-surveys that are na- nerable children (lower probability of enrolment in school, tionally representative. lower probability of receiving key immunizations, higher Third, the project is documenting the impact of confl ict psychosocial needs etc.)? on adult mortality and its socio-economic distribution. By an- One of the countries most affected by HIV/AIDS is Kenya, alyzing the timing of adult mortality and episodes of confl ict where approximately 1.7 million out of an estimated total of in numerous countries, the research will aim at establishing 15 million children have lost one or both of their parents, due whether the effects of those confl icts can be seen in the pop- largely to HIV/AIDS. Although there is overall agreement on ulation structure at the country, regional, and local levels. the scope of the problem, there is little agreement on what The project fi ndings will help to provide a better under- measures should be taken to address it. standing of the socio-economic gradient in adult mortality, The project focused specifi cally on two slum areas of Nai- how the HIV/AIDS pandemic affects adult mortality, and robi (Korogocho and Viwandani), which were the focus of the more localized shocks such as confl ict and famine. The proj- Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance Sys- ect will generate primary information that could be used in tem. There is ongoing and detailed household-level data col- the design of projects to mitigate socio-economic inequali- lection on all residents – in some 23,000 households. This rich ties in adult health, the implementation of projects that ad- database includes a large amount of information that would dress the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and in providing better un- shed light on many of the unanswered questions related to derstanding of the demographic consequences of shocks. orphans and vulnerable children. The project also adminis- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— tered an additional module to collect additional information. Deon Filmer (dfi [email protected]) and Damien de Using these data, the project identifi ed the benefi ciaries and Walque. With Shannon Allen. an assessment of the targeting methods to direct future re- Project Code: P104962. search on the welfare of orphans and vulnerable children. Completion date: June 2008. The analysis ran regressions at the individual child level to explain child welfare indicators; and designed a reliable and Long-term Consequences of Conﬂ ict valid method of proxy means testing to identify households that would qualify for interventions based on their income or Most of the evidence on mortality and its consequences dur- other related socio-economic status indicators. ing confl icts relies on historical or journalistic accounts and Responsibility: Africa Region, Human Development Unit—Mi- estimates. This research project uses nationally representa-

71 tive surveys to analyze the long-term impact of confl icts on Determinants of Success in Immunization Programs the population’s composition, health, and education in Cam- bodia and Rwanda. This research project explored why some countries achieve The work on Cambodia studies the long-term impact of successful immunization programs—and some achieve eq- genocide during the period of the Khmer Rouge (1975-79). uity in the outcomes of such programs—while others do not. Using mortality data for siblings from the Cambodia Demo- Through cross-country quantitative analysis, the study iden- graphic and Health Survey in 2000, it shows that excess mor- tifi ed factors associated with high immunization coverage for tality was extremely high and heavily concentrated during measles and DPT-3 (diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus) vac- 1974-80. Adult males and individuals with an urban or edu- cines: the global policy environment, the quality of national cated background were more likely to die. Infant mortality institutions, the level of development, and contact with in- was also at very high levels during the period. And disability ternational agencies. rates from landmines or other weapons were high for males The research showed that, except in very poor countries, who, given their birth cohort, were exposed to this risk. democracies had lower coverage rates than autocracies, per- The very high and selective mortality had a major impact haps because in autocracies bureaucratic elites had an affi nity on the population structure of the country. Fertility and mar- for immunization programs and were granted more autonomy riage rates were very low under the Khmer Rouge but re- and resources. There was no evidence that disease outbreaks bounded immediately after the regime’s collapse. Because of or polio eradication campaigns affected immunization rates the shortage of eligible males, the age and education differ- or that, at the aggregate level, education and literacy were ences between partners tended to decline. The period had a correlated with high coverage. In other words, in the current lasting impact on the educational attainment of the popula- structure of immunization programs coverage rates respond tion. The education system collapsed during the period, so more to supply-side than to demand-side effects. individuals—especially males—who were of school age dur- Work on the factors relating to equity in immunization ing this interval had lower educational attainment than the outcomes is ongoing. preceding and subsequent birth cohorts. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services The methodology used in this project could be expanded Team—Varun Gauri ([email protected]) and Peyvand to include more generally the socio-economic determinants Khaleghian. With Baya Benhassine and Santiago Cornejo. of adult mortality in developing countries. Project Code: P074573. Project fi ndings have been presented at the Northeast Completion date: December 2005. Universities Development Consortium, Montreal (2004); the fi rst workshop of the Households in Confl ict Network, Berlin Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions (2006); and the second workshop of the Households in Con- fl ict Network, Antwerp (2007). In most industrial countries, the mortality benefi ts of envi- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- ronmental programs accrue primarily to older people. In the velopment and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque case of air pollution controls, the age distribution of statistical ([email protected]). lives saved parallels the age distribution of deaths, implying Project Code: P096792. that in many industrial countries 75 percent of people saved Completion date: December 2009. are over 65 years old. Yet the most common method of valuing these risk reductions is to use compensating wage differen- Publications tials from the labor market, which refl ect the risk preferences de Walque, Damien, and Philip Verwimp. “The Demographic of workers who are on average much younger. An important and Socio-Economic Distribution of Excess Mortality dur- question for policy is how the value of reduced risk of death ing the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda.” World Bank, Washing- varies with age—and with health status. ton, D.C. Unpublished. This research project developed a questionnaire that asked de Walque, Damien. 2006. “The Socio-demographic Legacy of people aged 40–75 what they would pay to reduce their risk the Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia.” Population Studies of dying. Specifi cally, it asked respondents what they would 60(2): 223-31. pay for a drug (not covered by health insurance) that, if taken de Walque, Damien. 2005. “Selective Mortality during the for the next 10 years, would reduce their chances of dying Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia. Population and Develop- over this period by a stated amount. It also asked respon- ment Review 31(2): 351-68. dents whether they would pay a stated amount for a drug

72 that, if taken today, would reduce their risk of dying begin- egal research used a randomized comparison of communities ning at age 70. with and without the intervention. The baseline/re-survey Results from Canada and the United States suggested that approach allowed for difference-in-difference analysis. the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of dying decreased The Madagascar case study found positive returns to ex- only slightly with age and was unaffected by current health posure to the project. Communities with an additional year or status. Estimates of the value of a statistical life were slightly two of exposure to the project had malnutrition rates 7-9 per- lower than those obtained in the labor market literature. centage points lower than communities with less time in treat- The survey instrument was also administered in France, It- ment. The impact was larger in the poorest communities. aly, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United Kingdom. The randomization of the treatment for the Senegal case The project results have been presented at the Universi- study was partially compromised of 30 percent of the treat- dad de los Andes, Bogotá (June 2003); the University of Cali- ment groups not receiving the program and nearly 10 percent fornia at Santa Barbara (October 2003); York University (Oc- of the control included in the program. Thus, the analysis tober 2004); and Rice University, Houston (October 2004). could not use a simple randomized comparison. However, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural and Urban there were robust behavioral changes regarding care giving Team—Maureen L. Cropper ([email protected]). and utilization of health services based on intention to treat With Anna Alberini, University of Maryland; Alan Krupnick, as well as treatment on the treated comparisons as well as Resources for the Future; and Nathalie Simon, U.S. Environ- difference-in-difference comparisons using household char- mental Protection Agency. acteristics. The results also showed improvements in malnu- Project Code: P087587. trition based on difference-in-difference regressions. Completion date: June 2005. The preliminary results for Madagascar were presented to staff in the project offi ce, and in Madagascar (April 2005 and Publications June 2006). Project fi ndings were presented at a workshop on Alberini, Anna, Maureen Cropper, Alan Krupnick, and Nathalie Nutrition in Central America in Tegucigalpa, Honduras (No- Simon. 2006. “Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reduc- vember 2006). Results for Senegal were discussed in Dakar tions: Does Latency Matter?” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (November 2005 and July 2007). 32(3): 231-45. Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Regional Human Alberini, Anna, Alan Krupnick, and Nathalie Simon. 2004. “Will- Development—Harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank. ingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: Does Latency org), Claudia Rokx, and Emanuela Galasso. With Jeffrey Yau, Matter?” NCEE Working Paper 2004-01. U.S. Environmen- University of Pennsylvania; Hernan Gonzales, University tal Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental of Maryland; Judith McGuire; Guy Dejongh; and Sebastian Economics, Washington, D.C. Linnemayr, Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques. Krupnick, Alan, Anna Alberini, and Nathalie Simon. 2004. “Does Project Code: P087558. the Value of a Statistical Life Vary with Age and Health Sta- Completion date: June 2007. tus? Evidence from the U.S. and Canada.” Journal of Envi- ronmental Economics and Management 48(1): 769–92. Publications Alderman, Harold, and Patrice Engle. 2007. “The Synergy of Community Nutrition and Evaluation of Impacts in Africa Nutrition and ECD Interventions in Africa.” In Marito Gar- cia, Alan Pence, and Judith Evans, eds. Africa’s Future—Af- Community-based nutrition projects have been advocated rica’s Challenge: Early Childhood Care and Development (ECCD) as a cost-effective approach to addressing child health is- in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. sues. This research project assessed the impact of commu- Alderman, Harold, Biram Ndiaye, Sebastian Linnemayr, Abdou- nity-based nutrition projects on malnutrition in Madagas- laye Ka, Claudia Rokx, Khadidiatou Dieng, and Menno Mul- car and Senegal and investigated the determinants of any der-Sibanda. 2007. “Effectiveness of a Community-based such impact. Intervention to Improve Nutrition in Young Children in The Madagascar research used monitoring data from the Senegal: A Difference in Difference Analysis.” World Bank, nutrition project along with data on the nongovernmental or- Washington, D.C. ganizations involved in implementation. A follow-up survey Galasso, E., and N. Umapathi. 2007. “Improving Nutritional Sta- of households and workers in nongovernmental organiza- tus through Behavioral Change. Lessons from Madagascar.” tions gathered data on knowledge about nutrition. The Sen- World Bank, Washington, D.C.

73 Galasso, E., and J. Yau. 2005. “Improving Nutritional Status 2006. “The Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Delhi, through Behavioral Change: Lessons from the SEECA- India.” Policy Research Working Paper 3995. World Bank, LINE Program in Madagascar.” World Bank, Development Washington, D.C. and Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 34(1): Research Group, Washington, D.C. 21-47 (2007). Linnemayr, Sebastian, Harold Alderman, and Abdoulaye Ka. 2006. “Determinants of Malnutrition in Senegal: Individual, Reproductive and Child Health and Human Development Household, Community Variables, and Their Interaction.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Most previous research has focused on how poverty and socio-economic conditions affect reproductive choices, rather Valuing Improvements in Road Safety in Delhi, India than the reverse direction. This research project is gathering evidence-based research on how reproductive choices Each year more than 1 million people die in road crashes. and demographic changes affect poverty and socio-economic More than 75 percent of these deaths occur in developing outcomes in developing countries. countries, where vulnerable road users (pedestrians, motor- The project is using a variety of analytical methods, in- cyclists, and cyclists) constitute the majority of fatalities. To cluding econometric techniques, macro-modeling, and some monetize and compare the benefi ts of road traffi c improve- qualitative data analysis. The data sources include the De- ments with the costs requires estimates of the value of reduc- mographic and Health Surveys, a large multi-country dataset tions in risk of death. Since estimates of individual willing- assembled for a study on “Demographic trends, economic ness to pay to reduce the risk of death do not exist for most growth, and distribution dynamics,” secondary data sets, and developing countries, foregone earnings—the human capital specifi c data sets collected for this research. approach—is used instead to value lives lost. The concern Preliminary results have been used in project preparation is that this may understate the value of improvements in in two health sector reform projects in India, in the states road safety. of Karnataka and West Bengal. The emphasis on neglected This research project conducted a stated preference sur- aspects of public health constitutes a new departure in the vey in Delhi, India, to provide estimates of the value of mor- policies and strategies of both the government as well as the tality risk reductions in a traffi c safety context. The survey World Bank. was administered to 1,200 commuters sampled at random. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Servic- Respondents were asked, using a payment card, what they es Team—Elizabeth King ([email protected]), Deon would pay to reduce their risk of death as a pedestrian (by Filmer, Berk Ozler Damien de Walque, Kathleen Beegle, using a pedestrian subway), what they would pay for a saf- Jed Friedman, Halsey Rogers, Norbert Schady, Nistha Sin- er helmet to use when riding a two-wheeler, and what they ha, Maurizio Bussolo, Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe, would pay to live in a city with a lower death rate due to traf- and Mattias Lundberg. With Hai-Anh Dang, David Horow- fi c crashes. Risk reductions were represented visually using a itz, Natsuko Kiso, Rafael E. De Hoyos Navarro, and Maria grid of 100,000 squares. Porter. The results suggested that willingness to pay to reduce Project Code: P097557. the risk of death in a traffi c crash increased with exposure to Completion date: August 2008. risk (measured by length of commute) and income. It was also higher for persons who drove motorcycles (two-wheel- Public Health and the Environment ers) than for those who did not. Finally, sensitivity to the size of the risk reduction increased with education. The goal of this research project was to help improve health Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural and Ur- outcomes through better environmental management. First, ban Team—Maureen L. Cropper (mcropper@worldbank. the project distilled lessons from other countries on the org). With Anna Alberini, University of Maryland; and management of environmental hygiene and vector control. Soma Bhattacharya. Second, it designed projects for applying these lessons in In- Project Code: P093247. dia. In particular, the focus was on issues of drainage, waste Completion date: June 2006. management, and water management, which are essential for controlling malaria and gastro-intestinal diseases. Publication The project analyzed a mixture of quantitative and quali- Bhattacharya, Soma, Anna Alberini, and Maureen Cropper. tative data that had been collected in the fi eld. The fi ndings

74 have been operationalized in two health sector reform proj- In recent years, evidence has been accumulating that govern- ects in India, in the states of Karnataka and West Bengal. ment health services, including those funded by the World The results were used in project preparation in two health Bank and other donors, have disproportionately benefi ted sector reform projects in India, in the states of Karnataka upper-income groups, rather than the poor people whom state and West Bengal. This emphasis on neglected aspects they were intended to help. This has resulted in a need to of public health constitutes a new departure in the policies understand these largely unexpected fi ndings more fully, and and strategies of both the government as well as the World to use this understanding to identify ways to overcome the Bank. By working closely with our two collaborating insti- problem that they represent. tutions in India, the project has contributed to research and This research project follows two earlier research proj- policy-making capacity in India. ects. One consisted of studies using household data sets The project fi ndings were presented at a series of work- and an “asset” or “wealth” approach to the determination shops in the Karnataka and West Bengal states of India; the of economic status to show the distribution of health service Global Forum for Health Research (2003); Brown University coverage across economic groups. The second used a ben- (2006); and at the conference on Fiscal Decentralization and efi t-incidence approach to assess the distribution of public Local Governance in India (2006). expenditures across economics classes. Tools for assessing the strengths and gaps in the Essen- The analytical approach this project used was a modifi ed tial Public Health Functions, originally developed by the variant of benefi t-incidence analysis, as adapted to fi t the US Centers for Disease Control for use in the US and Latin needs of the health sector. America, were adapted for use in India. Two types of data were used: primary data collected Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- through original household and/or facility studies; and sec- vices Team—Monica Das Gupta (mdasgupta@worldbank. ondary data drawn from existing data sets created by house- org) and Peyvand Khaleghian. With the Institute for Social hold surveys dealing with heath. and Economic Change, State Institute for Panchayats and The principal fi nding of the research was the identifi ca- Rural Development. tion of numerous exceptions to the rule: health programs that Project Code: P079785. did reach the poor effectively. These were found to be fre- Completion date: April 2006. quent enough to support the belief that better performance is possible, and their features provided valuable guidance for Publications the design of future initiatives. Das Gupta, Monica. 2005. “Public Health in India: Dangerous Project fi ndings were presented at the Reaching the Poor Neglect.” Economic and Political Weekly (December). Conference, Washington, D.C. (February 2004). ______. 2007. “Public Health in India: An Overview.” In Kaushik Responsibility: Human Development Network, Health, Nutri- Basu, ed. Oxford Companion to Economics in India. Oxford tion and Population Team—Davidson R. Gwatkin (Dgwat- University Press; and Policy Research Working Paper 3787. [email protected]), Adam Wagstaff, and Abdo S. Yazbek. World Bank, Washington, D.C. With Sebastian Galiani, Mercedes Fernandez, and Ernesto ______. Forthcoming. “How Well Does India’s Federal Gov- Schargrodsky, Universidad Torcuato di Tella; Leonardo ernment Perform Its Essential Public Health Functions?” Gaspirini and Monica Panadeiros, Fundacion de Investi- Health Policy; and Policy Research Working Paper 3447. gasiones Economicas Latinoamericanas; A.T.M. Iqbal An- World Bank, Washington, D.C. war and Japhet Killewo, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Das Gupta, Monica, and Peyvand Khaleghian. 2005. “Public Disease Research; Aluisia J.D. Barros, Cesar G. Victora, Juraci Management and the Essential Public Health Functions.” A. Cesar, and Nelson A. Neumann, Fundacao de Apoio Uni- World Development 33(7): 1083-99; and Policy Research Work- versitario; Christy Hanson and G.N.V. Ramana, World Bank; ing Paper 3220. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Lia Selig, Government of Brazil; Diana Weil, World Health Organization/World Bank; J. Brad Schwartz and Indu Bhush- Reaching the Poor with Health, Nutrition, and an, Asian Development Bank; David Peters, Krishna Rao, Population Services and D.S. Misra, Johns Hopkins University; Anju Malhotra, Sanyukta Mathur, and P.L. Mohan, International Center for The project objectives were to determine how well health Research on Women; Martin Valdivia, Grupo de Analisis para services in developing countries reach poor people; and, more el Desarrollo; Michael Thiede and Sandi Mbatsha, University importantly, how such services can do so more effectively. of Cape Town; Natasha Palmer, London School of Hygiene

75 and Tropical Medicine; and Viroj Tangcharoensathien and health insurance is likely to clarify further the problems as- Chutima Suraratdecha, Health Systems Research Institute. sociated with social health insurance, and the options to get Project Code: P083938. around them. Completion date: September 2005. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- opment and Public Services Team—Adam Wagstaff (awag- Publications [email protected] ) and Magnus Lindelow. Davidson, R. Gwatkin, Adam Wagstaff, and Abdo S. Yazbeck, Project Code: P091397. eds. 2005. Reaching the Poor with Health, Nutrition, and Popu- Completion date: Ongoing. lation Services: What Works, What Doesn’t, and Why. Washing- ton, D.C. Publications Yazbeck, Abdo S., and Davidson R. Gwatkin, eds. 2005. “Reach- Eggleston, K., Li Ling, Q. Meng, M. Lindelöw, and A. Wagstaff. ing the Poor with Health Services.” Special issue of Develop- Forthcoming. “Health Service Delivery in China: A Litera- ment Outreach. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Institute. ture Review.” Health Economics; and Policy Research Work- ing Paper 3978. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Health Care Financing and Delivery Leung, G.M., A. Wagstaff, M. Lindelow, and J.R. Lu. Forthcom- ing. “The Health Systems of China, Hong Kong and Tai- This research project is focusing on a variety of issues in wan.” In K. Heggenhougen, ed. Encyclopedia of Public Health. health fi nance and delivery, with a strong emphasis on health Amsterdam: North Holland. insurance issues and evaluation. The project seeks to deter- Lindelow, M., and A. Wagstaff. 2006. “Health Facility Surveys: mine how best to raise health care revenues, and how to en- An Introduction.” In M. Goldstein, ed. Measurement Issues in sure that insurance coverage affords fi nancial protection, but Service Delivery. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Policy also ensures access to needed services, including the organi- Research Working Paper 2953. World Bank, Washington, zation and fi nancing of service delivery. D.C. The project is analyzing labor market and fi nancial protec- Wagstaff, A. 2005. “Decomposing Changes in Income Inequality tion aspects of health insurance, with a strong focus on impact into Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution and Reranking, evaluation of programs and reforms. It is also examining how with Applications to China and Vietnam.” Policy Research insurance interacts with other risk management strategies in Working Paper 3559. World Bank, Washington, D.C. dealing with health shocks. ______. 2007a. “The Economic Consequences of Health Shocks: The analysis is based on a variety of methods, including Evidence from Vietnam.” Journal of Health Economics 26(1): impact evaluation methods for program and health reform 100; and Policy Research Working Paper 3644. World Bank, evaluation, regression analysis for analysis of the impacts of Washington, D.C. shocks, and critical reviews of existing studies. Data include ______. 2007b. “Health Insurance for the Poor: Initial Impacts of household surveys and health facility datasets. Vietnam’s Health Care Fund for the Poor.” Policy Research One important fi nding is that insurance sometimes affords Working Paper 4134. World Bank, Washington, D.C. limited fi nancial protection and may actually increase fi nan- ______. 2007c. “Health Systems in East Asia: What Can Devel- cial risk. This is especially likely to be the case if providers oping Countries Learn from Japan and the Asian Tigers?” primarily recommend sophisticated services to those with in- Health Economics 16(5): 441-56.; and Policy Research Work- surance, and providers are paid fee-for-service and subject to ing Paper 3790. World Bank, Washington, D.C. limited regulation and oversight. In such settings, any extra ______. 2007d. “Social Health Insurance Reexamined.” Policy Re- care delivered as a result of having insurance may not be es- search Working Paper 4111. World Bank, Washington, D.C. pecially necessary from a medical perspective. Thus, reforms Wagstaff, A., and M. Lindelow. 2005. “Can Insurance Increase to the way providers are paid and regulated may do a better Financial Risk? The Curious Case of Health Insurance in job of reducing fi nancial risk than expanding or deepening China.” Policy Research Working Paper 3741. World Bank, insurance coverage. Washington, D.C. This fi nding makes a case for focusing less on insurance as ______. 2007. “Health Reform in China: Where Next?” In L. being a silver bullet to the problem of fi nancial protection in Jiwei and W. Shuilin, eds. China: Public Finance for a Harmo- health, and broadening out the dialogue and range of inter- nious Society. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ventions to include “the supply side” and in particular how Wagstaff, A., M. Lindelow, G. Jun, X. Ling, and Q. Juncheng. insurance interacts with it. The work being done on social 2007. “Extending Health Insurance to the Rural Population:

76 An Impact Evaluation of China’s New Cooperative Medical Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- Scheme.” Policy Research Working Paper 4150. World Bank, opment and Public Services Team—Adam Wagstaff (awag- Washington, D.C. [email protected]). With Rodrigo Moreno-Serra, Univer- Wagstaff, A., and M. Pradhan. 2005. “Health Insurance Impacts sity of York. on Health and Nonmedical Consumption in a Developing Project Code: P104665. Country.” Policy Research Working Paper 3790. World Bank, Completion date: December 2007. Washington, D.C. Wagstaff, A., and S. Yu. 2007. “Do Health Sector Reforms Have Publication Their Intended Impacts? The World Bank’s Health VIII Wagstaff, A., and R. Moreno-Serra. 2007. “Europe and Central Project in Gansu Province, China.” Journal of Health Eco- Asia’s Great Post-Communist Social Health Insurance Ex- nomics 26(3): 535; and Policy Research Working Paper 3743. periment: Impacts on Health Sector and Labor Market Out- World Bank, Washington, D.C. comes.” Policy Research Working Paper 4371. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Social Health Insurance and Tax-Financed Health Care in Europe and Central Asia: Spending and Labor Market The Impact of Health on Household Income Capabilities Implications in Rural China

The aim of this research project was to assess the impact of This research project studied the impact of health shocks on social insurance adoption on health spending, health out- the income and consumption of rural households in China, comes, health system throughputs and productivity, and vari- their ability to handle the shocks, and the effectiveness of ous labor market outcomes including employment, wages, public intervention. The project addressed several ques- and the size of the informal sector. tions: How well insured were rural households? What de- The research was based on a pooled time-series coun- termined the consumption of insurance? Who had health try-level dataset to get at the effects of country-wide re- insurance? And what effect did health insurance have on forms, albeit at different dates in different countries. It household welfare? also examined labor market consequences as well as health The research used a panel data approach to identify the sector outcomes. effects of health shocks and income shocks. The data came The analysis used regression-based differences-in-differ- from a retrospective survey of major diseases in about 1,500 ences that allowed for an unobserved country-specifi c time households in eight provinces over the period 1987–2002, trend as well as a country-specifi c unobserved fi xed effect. and an existing panel data set covering the same period, with The analysis also employed instrumental variables as an al- which the survey was matched. ternative to overcoming the endogeneity of the adoption of The research was done in collaboration with Beijing Uni- social health insurance. The pooled time-series country-level versity’s China Center for Economic Research. dataset was assembled from a variety of country-level data- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and sets. Country-specifi c institutional information on the timing Investment Team—Lixin Colin Xu ([email protected]). of SHI adoption and provider payment methods was taken With Yang Yao and Mengtao Gao, Beijing University; and Li from the Health in Transition report series. Gan, University of Texas at Austin. Beijing University con- The fi ndings showed that adoption of social health in- tributed funding for the data collection. surance in Europe and Central Asia appears to have raised Project Code: P087657. health expenditures, increased hospital admissions, increased Completion date: June 2005. the bed-occupancy rate, and reduced average length of stay. However, it has not had any perceptible impact on health out- Publications comes, despite the extra health spending. The results warn Xu, Lixin Colin, Yang Yao, Mengtao Gao, and Li Gan. 2006a. against the adoption of social health insurance in countries “Health Shocks, Village Elections, and Long-Term Income: that are contemplating it, suggest that it may make sense to Evidence from Rural China.” NBER Working Paper 12686. revert to tax-fi nance in countries where social health insur- ______. 2006b. “Local Elections and Consumption Insurance: ance is proving diffi cult to operate, and point to the need to Evidence from Chinese Villages.” Policy Research Working fi nd ways to counter the potentially negative effects of adop- Paper 4205. World Bank, Washington, D.C. tion of social health insurance.

77 Health Care Providers and Markets in Delhi Publications Das, Jishnu, and Paul Gertler. 2007. “Practice-Quality Variation Little evidence exists on how the quality of medical care dif- in Five Low-Income Countries: A Conceptual Overview.” fers by income group, by the sector in which a doctor prac- Health Affairs 26(3): 296-309. tices, or by the incentives facing a doctor—and ultimately Das, Jishnu, and Jeffrey Hammer. 2004. “Strained Mercy: Qual- how this affects health outcomes. This research project aims ity of Medical Care in Delhi.” Economic and Political Weekly to shed light on these issues through novel survey methods (February 28). in Delhi. ———. 2005. “Which Doctor: Combining Vignettes and Item The study fi rst carried out a household survey, interview- Response to Measure Doctor Quality.” Journal of Develop- ing 300 households in seven neighborhoods of Delhi over ment Economics 78: 348-83. two years for a total of 35 observations per household. Based ———. 2006. “Chronic Illnesses in India.” In Kaushik Basu, ed. on the results, the study compiled a census of all health care The Oxford Companion to Economics in India. providers in the seven neighborhoods and chose a sample ———. 2006. “Chronically Misinformed: Chronic Illnesses and of providers. To measure clinical competence, these provid- Information in Urban India.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. ers were administered “vignettes” (a battery of questions on ———. 2006. “The Quality of Medical Care in India.” In Kaushik standard hypothetical cases) and later observed in practice. Basu, ed. The Oxford Companion to Economics in India. Finally, the data were matched so that all household visits ———. 2007a. “Location, Location, Location: Residence, Wealth were matched to provider competence and practice. and the Quality of Medical Care in Delhi, India.” Health Af- The research has led to several main fi ndings. First, the fairs 26(3): 338-51. quality of health care provision in Delhi is poor on aver- ———. 2007b. “Money for Nothing: The Dire Straits of Medi- age. Second, perceptions of the public and private sector in cal Practice in India.” Journal of Development Economics India vary substantially, and the research fi nds grounds for 83(1): 1-36. prejudice against both. Third, what doctors do in practice (as Das, Jishnu, Jeffrey Hammer, and Kenneth Leonard. 2007. “The measured by a day’s direct observation) is only very weakly Quality of Care in Low-Income Countries.” Journal of Eco- related to how well they do on the vignettes. Fourth, there nomic Perspectives. are large disparities between poor and rich neighborhoods in access to good-quality medical care. Private doctors in poor Contracting with the Private Sector for the Delivery of neighborhoods are much worse than those in rich neighbor- Health Services: Randomized Evaluation in Cambodia hoods, and the pattern is replicated for government doctors. One repercussion of this poor medical care is poor diagnosis. Contracting for service delivery is being implemented The household survey shows that when households are in many developing regions and countries as disparate as given the correct diagnosis, they are able to respond ap- Bangladesh, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Mozambique, propriately, even when they are poor. This suggests that and Uganda. poor information has an important role in explaining poor This research project examined the impact of a random- health outcomes. ized, controlled experiment of contracting the private sector Project fi ndings have been presented at seminars at the to deliver primary health care services in Cambodia. It ana- World Bank, the Delhi School of Economics, the Center for lyzed data from surveys in 1997 and 2003 to compute causal Policy Research (Delhi), Harvard University, the NEUDC estimates of the effects of the contracting treatments on conference, Princeton University, and Johns Hopkins health care provision in the program area, and presented new University. evidence on health center management, non-contracted out- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- comes, expenditures, and perception of the quality of care. velopment and Public Services Team—Jishnu Das (jdas1@ The methodology was consistent with the cluster-random- worldbank.org) and Jeffrey Hammer. With the Insti- ized nature of the intervention design. tute of Socio Economic Research on Development and Contracting appears to have been an effective way of im- Democracy, India. proving the delivery of public health services. Combining Project Codes: P075922 and P098136. contracted management of public facilities with a shift in Completion date: 2009. health spending to the public sector, the project led to increases in targeted service outcomes of about one standard deviation on average. The treatments induced individu-

78 als to shift curative care visits to public facilities, mostly at two rounds of the National Family and Health Survey from the expense of visits to untrained service providers such as India to examine the effectiveness of these two methods. drug sellers and traditional healers. Specifi cally, the project The fi rst study found that the use of sex selective abor- improved the management of government health centers, tion was closely related to the lowering of fertility in India. particularly in the availability of 24-hour service, staff at- Sex selective abortion was therefore more likely to take place tendance, and supplies and equipment. The contracting-in when the mother had a higher level of education and when and contracting-out approaches produced similar results, al- the father was better educated. Furthermore, families with though the greater managerial control afforded contracting- more land were more likely to have boys and more likely to out managers appears to have enabled them to make greater have longer birth spacing indicating that sex selective abor- strides in improving health center management. There was tion was used. Finally, residing in an urban area also increased no evidence that contractors took advantage of the incom- the use of sex determination techniques. plete contracts, although non-targeted service outcomes did Project fi ndings have been presented at Brown University, not show improvement relative to the comparison group. the Western Economics Association, the Annual Meeting of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Develop- the European Society for Population Economics, and the ment and Public Services Team—Elizabeth M. King (Eliza- Economic Demography Workshop at the Population Associa- beth King ([email protected]) and Benjamin Loevinsohn. tion of America’s Annual Meeting. With David Clingingsmith, Harvard University; Rathavuth Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Hong, Macro International; Jennica Larrison, World Bank; Kathleen Beegle ([email protected]). With Dr. Claus and Nguyen Minh Thang, University of Washington. Portner, University of Washington. Project Code: P085710. Project Code: P095699. Completion date: June 2005. Completion date: June 2006.

Publication Publication Bloom, E., I. Bhushan, D. Clingingsmith, R. Hong, E. King, M. Pörtner, Claus C. 2007. “The Demand for Sex Selective Abor- Kremer, B. Loevinsohn, and B. Schwartz. 2006. “Contracting tions.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. for Health: Evidence from Cambodia.” World Bank, Wash- ington, D.C. Economic Costs of Mental Health Ailments

The Demand for Sex Selective Abortions The goals of this research project were to determine the feasibility of collecting mental health data in the context of a One of the major changes that have taken place in India over multi-topic household survey, and to assess the link between the last two decades is a signifi cant shift in the sex ratio at mental health and poverty. The project studied whether birth. As in other Asian countries, ultrasound and other tech- mental health indicators could be collected via a national, niques for prenatal sex determination have become more multi-topic household survey without specially trained inter- widely available and affordable in India. There has, however, viewers, and how mental health problems relate to poverty. so far been very little analysis of who uses prenatal sex de- Most studies of mental health are clinic based and/or dedi- termination to abort female fetuses and the effects of the cated surveys that do not contain welfare measures. patterns of demand, despite the obvious major impacts this The project analysis used data from the 2001 Living Stan- practice is likely to have in the future. One reason for this it dards Measurement Study survey of Bosnia and Herzegovi- the perceived lack of suitable information. na. It also used data from an additional survey of health care This research project investigated whether it was possible facilities and the impact of the confl ict on communities. to examine the demand for sex selective abortion even in The main fi nding was that it was possible to carry out a de- the absence of direct information on its use by applying two tailed set of mental health questions (depression indicators) different methods. The fi rst analyzed the determinants of in a standard LSMS survey. That is, the data that were col- the probability that a child of a given parity will be a son. lected were valid and comparable with results that could be The second focused on the determinants of the difference obtained in clinical studies, but also did not affect the quality between actual spacing between births when sex selective of data in the rest of the survey. In addition, the poverty- abortion is available and the predicted spacing based on infor- mental health linkage was not close; other factors were more mation from when it was not available. The project used the closely linked with depression.

79 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Project results were presented at a workshop in Lanzhou, Kinnon Scott ([email protected]). With Aida Ka- at Northwest Normal University (July 2005). Information on petanovic and Naunovic Miodrag, Epsilon Research, Devel- the project is available on the Web at http://www.ssc.upenn. opment and Consulting. edu/china/. Data from the fi rst round of the Gansu Survey of Project Code: P086972. Children and Families are available on request and affi liation Completion date: December 2007. with the project. Responsibility: East Asia and Pacifi c Region, Rural Develop- Publications ment and Natural Resources Sector Department—Guo Li Das, Jishnu, Jed Friedman, David McKenzie, and Kinnon Scott. ([email protected]) and Alan Piazza. With Pengfei Ge, Forthcoming. “Mental Health and Poverty in Developing Coun- Gansu Center for Disease Control, China; Paul Glewwe, Uni- tries: Revisiting the Relationship.” Social Science and Medicine. versity of Minnesota; Emily Hannum, University of Penn- Scott, Kinnon, Michael P. Massagli, Aida Kapetanovic, Richard sylvania; Albert Park, University of Michigan; Tiemin Tang, Mollica, and James Lavelle. 2006. “Measuring Mental Health Gansu New Century Information Research Center, China; in Post-Conflict Societies: An Assessment of the Bosnia and Jiayi Wang, Northwest Normal University, China; An Xue- Herzegovina Experiment.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. hui, Northwest Normal University, China; and Yuying Wang, China Center for Disease Control. The Fogarty International The Interaction of Health, Education, and Employment in Center at the National Institutes of Health and the Univer- Western China sity of Michigan contributed funding for the research. Wave 1 of the Gansu Survey of Children and Families was funded The World Bank and other development agencies continue in full by Spencer Foundation. to fi nance a large number of health and education projects in Project Code: P083112. developing countries. This research project used panel data Completion date: December 2007. methods and instrumental variables to evaluate the relationships—in some cases causal relationships—between health and education, health and labor market outcomes, and education and labor market outcomes. A major component of the project was the completion of the second wave of a survey of 2,000 adolescents in rural Chi- na, the Gansu Survey of Children and Families. (The survey children were fi rst interviewed in 2000.) The survey collected detailed information on physical and psychosocial health outcomes, educational attainment, and labor force participation. In addition, a randomized intervention to provide eyeglasses to primary school students with poor vision was conducted among a separate sample of children to help identify a specifi c connection between health and education outcomes. The project generated results that could inform policy- makers about the costs that poor health or poor educational attainment could have for labor productivity as well as for individual well-being. The results also helped to identify potential health risks and areas of educational underperfor- mance in poor areas in China. The results showed robust relationships between poor nutrition and education outcomes, and potentially important ties between psycho-social problems and children’s academic performance. Analyses of the health clinic data suggested that the average quality of health services improved over time, even for clinics in the poorest counties, but inequality also increased.

80 Human Capital Development; Labor and Employment

What Drives Mass Education? Economy, Policies, turns to Education, Productivity, and Economic Growth in Institutions China.” World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- ington, D.C. This research project studied the expansion of education in developing countries in 1960–2000, relating it to economic Growth, Redistribution, and Human Development: A and institutional factors. In particular, the research attempted Decomposition Method with Applications to Schooling in to identify the kinds of policies consistent with enhancing Morocco and Vietnam the demand for education. The research was based on multivariate regression analy- Understanding the links between economic growth and ag- sis with fi xed effects using cross-country data from the World gregate human development outcomes can help inform ef- Bank’s World Development Indicators database and provin- forts to monitor and forecast progress in improving those out- cial data on China from the China Statistical Yearbook for comes, such as in assessing progress toward the Millennium 1986–2002. The initial analysis found that educational attain- Development Goals. ment around the world has increased at a pace exceeding in- This research project aimed to develop a set of tools come growth. This fi nding prompted research into the causes for consistently aggregating the empirical, microeconomic of expansion in education, which led to consideration—both relationships to throw light on the macroeconomics of hu- in the cross-country framework and across provinces in Chi- man development. It developed and implemented a micro- na—of the effect of economic openness. This analysis pro- econometric decomposition method for investigating the duced two main fi ndings: proximate determinants of aggregate human development 1. Increased educational attainment was related to an outcomes and to measure the importance of growth in mean economy’s degree of openness. incomes relative to changes in the distribution of income and 2. Economic openness apparently enhanced the demand non-income characteristics of the population. for skilled labor as a result of technological spillovers, The project applied these methods to basic schooling thus generating demand for education. over the 1990s in Morocco and Vietnam—countries chosen The fi ndings suggested that improvements in trade poli- because of their particularities in growth and human devel- cies and aspects of governance related to openness could be opment performance in the 1990s and because of the avail- expected to lead to advances in schooling. The research con- ability of suitable survey data. The study used the Morocco tributed to the debate on how best to achieve the Millen- Living Standards Surveys of 1990–91 and 1998–99 and the nium Development Goals in education. Vietnam Living Standards Surveys of 1992–93 and 1997–98. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services A user friendly STATA program was written to implement Team—Heng-Fu Zou ([email protected]). With Mark the method in other settings. Gradstein, Ben Gurion University; Denis Nikitin, Bingham- The analysis found that growth and distributional change ton University; Qinghua Zhang, Peking University; and Wen- have played a surprisingly modest role in the changes in bo Chen, Texas A&M University. school enrollments over time observed in both countries. Project Code: P086648. The bulk of the changes observed over time were account- Completion date: December 2004. able to changes in the structure of the model linking these variables to schooling attainments. The decomposition could Publications not reveal what drives these structural changes because they Gradstein, Mark, and Denis Nikitin. 2004. “Education Expan- are economy-wide factors; but there must be a strong pre- sion: Evidence and Interpretation.” Policy Research Work- sumption that they include both the effects of public policy ing Paper 3245. World Bank, Washington, D.C. efforts at increasing enrollments and increases in the overall Gradstein, Mark, Denis Nikitin, and Heng-fu Zou. 2005. “Eco- economic returns to schooling, and/or more widely shared nomic Openness and Education Expansion.” World Bank, knowledge about those returns. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services Zhang, Qinghua, Heng-fu Zou, and Wenbo Chen. 2005. “Re- Team—Dominique van de Walle (dvandewalle@worldbank.

81 org), and Poverty Team—Martin Ravallion. With Sylvie Lam- from developing countries, which can compete on both price bert, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Labo- and quality. These developments offer options for develop- ratoire d’Economie Appliquée, Paris ; and Magueye Dia. ing countries, including low-income countries, to expand and Project Code: P088694. strengthen their domestic higher education systems. Completion date: December 2007. Project fi ndings were presented at an internal World Bank seminar organized by the Human Development network and Publications in India at the Institute of Human Development, Delhi, and Lambert, Sylvie, Martin Ravallion, and Dominique van de Walle. the Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum. 2007. “A Micro-Decomposition Analysis of the Macroeco- Responsibility: Africa Region, Human Development 3—Sajitha nomic Determinants of Human Development.” Policy Re- Bashir ([email protected]). With Alejandro Espinosa- search Working Paper 4358. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Wang, consultant. Project Code: P100559. Trends in International Trade in Higher Education Completion date: December 2006. Services: Implications and Options for Developing Countries Publications Bashir, Sajitha. 2007. “Trend in International Trade in Higher International trade in higher education services has grown Education: Implications and Options for Developing Coun- rapidly in recent years in a variety of forms. The most com- tries.” Education Working Paper Series Number 6. World mon form of this trade is the movement of students to study Bank, Human Development Network, Washington, D.C. in foreign universities, which has been supplemented by the delivery of foreign higher education programs and institu- University-Industry Linkages in Metropolitan Areas in tions to transition and developing countries. Asia Among the factors propelling demand for foreign higher education services are the excess demand for domestic Universities as an axis for the urban economy are attracting higher education and the need for internationally recognized a great deal of interest in middle and upper-income econo- qualifi cations in emerging regional and global markets for mies in Eastern and Southern Asia. In these regions, growing highly skilled labor. Several countries have also encouraged integration with the leading global industries coincides with foreign collaboration to improve the quality of domestic rapid urbanization and a dramatic re-scaling of economic higher education. activity. However, research that could guide university de- However, there are concerns in developing countries velopment and supportive metropolitan as well as national about possible negative effects of this trade on under-funded policies in Asia is very thin, despite the fact that clusters of and ineffi cient domestic higher education systems operat- innovative activities have sprung up in China, India, Korea, ing within weak regulatory systems. The possibility of losing Malaysia, and Taiwan (China). sovereignty over a sector that is vital to national development This research project studied how universities could is another major concern. As a result, despite the growth in participate in a development strategy based on innovation international higher education trade, most developing coun- and knowledge-intensive activities when pressure on urban tries have been unwilling to make binding commitments in economies is especially severe. The study identifi ed the like- the current round of the General Agreement on Trade in Ser- ly effects of different policies and institutional mechanisms vices (GATS) negotiations and in bilateral trade agreements. for promoting successful university-industry linkages in Asia This research project analyzed data from the United and maximizing the spillovers from universities. Nations Educational, Scientifi c, and Cultural Organization The project primarily relied on detailed interviews of rep- (UNESCO) on international student fl ows, the International resentatives of fi rms, universities, and municipal authori- Monetary Fund’s balance of payments, trade statistics of se- ties; quantitative data on innovation outputs by universities lected countries, and GATS schedules. (published papers and patents); the performance of fi rms The project fi ndings showed that this trade is bound to in- linked to universities; and material drawn from the academic crease and diversify due to growing demand for foreign qual- literature. ifi cations and increasing competition among industrialized The project fi ndings indicate that the leading universities nations in the higher education market. The fi ndings also and research institutions in Asia are likely to increase their showed the increased entry of higher education institutions linkages with industry. Similarly, Asian fi rms are fi nding that

82 in-house research is insuffi cient even for the largest corpora- Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. “University/Research tions. Contracting out research to universities, entering into Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities: Com- alliances with research institutes, and collaborating with uni- mercializing Technological Innovation.” Bangkok. versity researchers can confer substantial advantages. ———. 2007. “Universities/Research Institutes and Regional The project’s case studies of countries and urban centers Innovation Systems: The Cases of Beijing and Shenzhen.” highlighted problems as well as innovative guidance on poli- World Development 35(6): 1056-74. cies for remedying them. Thus, the study hoped to inform D’Costa, Anthony. 2006. “Exports, University-Industry Linkages, World Bank policy dialogues with member countries on the and Innovation Challenges in Bangalore, India.” Policy Re- tertiary education sector and technology development. search Working Paper 3887. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The project sparked wide interest in the World Bank. A Hershberg, Eric, Kaoru Nabeshima, and Shahid Yusuf. 2007. similar study has been launched on countries in Sub-Saharan “Opening the Ivory Tower to Business: University-Industry African. In addition, the idea of innovation activities in core Linkages and the Development of Knowledge-Intensive urban areas was included in the report on Thailand’s Knowl- Clusters in Asian Cities.” World Development 35(6): 931-40. edge Economy and similar work has been requested by the Jiang, Juan, and Yuko Harayama. 2005. “University Local In- authorities in Malaysia and Thailand. dustry Linkages: The Case of Tohoku University in Sendai The project fi ndings were presented at a workshop hosted Area.” Paper presented at the Conference on University In- by the National University of Singapore and the Social Science dustry Linkages in Metropolitan Areas in Asia, Washington, Research Council, Singapore (May 2005); and at a workshop D.C. (November). at the World Bank, Washington, D.C. (November 2005). Jiang, Juan, Yuko Harayama, and Shiro Abe. 2006. “University- Responsibility: Development Research Group—Shahid Yusuf Local Industry Linkages: The Case of Tohoku University ([email protected]), and Kaoru Nabeshima. With Jun in the Sendai-Area.” Policy Research Working Paper 3991. Suzuki, Shibaura Institute of Technology; Fumio Kodama, World Bank, Washington, D.C. RIETI and Shibaura Institute of Technology; Weiping Wu, Kodama, Fumio, and Jun Suzuki. 2005. “How Japanese Compa- Virginia Commonwealth University; Dong-Won Sohn, Inha nies Brought New Sciences for Restructuring Their Busi- University; Martin Kenney, University of California, Davis; nesses: Characterizing Receiver-Active National System of Yuko Harayama, Tohoku University; Toshihiro Kodama, RI- Innovation.” Paper presented at the Conference on Univer- ETI and Kyoto University; Tran Ngoc Ca, National Insti- sity Industry Linkages in Metropolitan Areas in Asia, Wash- tute for Science and Technology Policy and Strategy Stud- ington, D.C. (November). ies; Richard Doner, Emory University; Peter Brimble, Asia ———. 2007. “How Japanese Companies Have Used Scientific Policy Research Co.; Rakesh Basant, Indian Institute of Advances to Restructure Their Business: The Receiver- Management Ahmedabad; Anthony D’Costa, University of Active National System of Innovation.” World Development Washington; Raymond Smilor, Beyster Institute; Eric Her- 35(6): 976-90. shberg, Social Science Research Council; Poh Kam Wong, Kodama, Toshihiro. 2005. “An Intermediary and Absorptive Ca- National University of Singapore; and Kris Olds, University pacity to Facilitate University-Industry Linkages Based on of Wisconsin. Empirical Analysis for TAMA in Japan.” Paper presented at Project Code: P070727. the Conference on University Industry Linkages in Metro- Completion date: June 2006. politan Areas in Asia, Washington, D.C. (November). Mathews, John, and Mei-Chih Hu. 2007. “Enhancing the Role Publications of Universities in Building National Innovative Capacity Basant, Rakesh, and Pankaj Chandra. 2007. “Role of Education- in Asia: The Case of Taiwan.” World Development 35(6): al and R&D Institutions in City Clusters: An Exploratory 1005- 20. Study of Bangalore and Pune Regions in India.” World De- Olds, Kris. 2007. “Global Assemblage: Singapore, Western Uni- velopment 35(6): 1037-55. versities, and the Construction of a Global Education Hub.” Brimble, Peter, and Richard F. Doner. 2007. “University-In- World Development 35(6): 959-75. dustry Linkages and Economic Development: The Case of Smilor, Raymond, Niall O’Donnell, Gregory Stein, and Robert Thailand.” World Development 35(6): 1021-36. Welborn. 2005. “The Research University and the Develop- Ca, Tran Ngoc. 2006. “Universities As Drivers of the Urban ment of High Technology Centers in the U.S.” Paper pre- Economies in Asia: The Case of Vietnam.” Policy Research sented at the Conference on University Industry Linkages in Working Paper 3949. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Areas in Asia, Washington, D.C. (November).

83 Sohn, Dong-Won, and Martin Kenney. 2007. “Universities, Clus- well as the project’s Web site, which updates fi ndings on ters, and Innovation Systems: The Case of Seoul, Korea.” inequalities in education outcomes (http://econ.worldbank. World Development 35(6): 991-1004. org/projects/edattain). The Web site, called the Education Wong, Poh Kam, Yuen Ping Ho, and Annette Singh. 2007. “To- Attainment and Enrollment around the World Web site, con- wards an ‘Entrepreneurial University’ Model to Support tains a variety of education statistics for 223 data sets from 89 Knowledge-Based Economic Development: The Case of the countries. National University of Singapore.” World Development 35(6): Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- 941-58. opment and Public Services Team—Deon Filmer (Dfi lmer@ Wu, Weiping. 2007. “Cultivating Research Universities and In- worldbank.org). dustrial Linkages: The Case of Shanghai.” World Develop- Project Code: P076766. ment 35(6): 1075-93. Completion date: June 2007.

Sources of Inequity in Human Development Outcomes Publications Ainsworth, Martha, and Deon Filmer. 2006. “Inequalities in This project aimed to expand the body of knowledge on in- Children’s Schooling: AIDS, Orphanhood, Poverty, and Gen- equalities in human development outcomes. The project de- der.” World Development 34(6): 1099-1128. veloped and refi ned tools to analyze these inequalities, docu- Filmer, Deon. 2005. “Disability, Poverty and Schooling: Results mented the magnitude and source of inequalities in human from 11 Household Surveys.” Policy Research Working Pa- development outcomes, and analyzed the determinants and per 3794. World Bank, Washington, D.C. correlates of inequalities. ———. 2005. “Fever and Its Treatment among the More and The source data for the project came from national house- Less Poor in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Health Policy and Planning hold surveys. The project built on earlier work that used 20(6): 337-46. Demographic and Health Survey and Living Standards ———. 2006. “Education Inequalities around the World.” In Measurement Study data to establish approaches to rank Commonwealth Secretariat, ed., Commonwealth Education individual and household welfare within countries. Refi n- Partnerships 2007. London: Nexus Strategic Partnership for ing those techniques, and testing their robustness, was one the Commonwealth Secretariat. part of the project. In addition, the project expanded the ———. 2006. “Gender and Wealth Disparities in Schooling: number of countries covered by including additional data Evidence from 44 Countries.” International Journal of Edu- sources and expanding the sources of inequality considered cational Research 43(6): 351-69. in the analysis. ———. 2007. “If You Build It, Will They Come? School Avail- In general, the main fi ndings of the project highlighted ability and School Enrollment in 21 Poor Countries.” Jour- the large and consistent inequalities in human development nal of Development Studies 43(5): 901-28. outcomes in many countries. Although inequalities according to household economic status are systematically found, this is Quantitative Service Delivery Surveys to Improve not always the case for inequalities in some health and nutri- Schooling tion outcomes. Understanding the sources of inequalities in human devel- Effi ciency and equity are the main reasons for government opment outcomes is a key fi rst step in developing policies to intervention. Yet, in many countries, rural schools do not have address gaps in human development outcomes. By develop- qualifi ed teachers or suffer from teacher absenteeism. Health ing a set of tools and cross-country comparable databases, this facilities lack trained staff and drugs. Transfers of public project helped to increase the knowledge base for developing funds through the various tiers of government suffer from interventions to improve human development outcomes. leakage. Household survey evidence indicates that even the The results have featured in various training events, in poor often choose not to use publicly provided services. particular, at sessions organized by the World Bank Institute Why are services so inadequate? Progress toward the Mil- on Public Expenditure Analysis, and at a World Bank-spon- lennium Development Goals (MDGs) depends not just on sored world-wide conference on disability and development faster economic growth and the fl ow of resources, but on the (December 2004). ability to translate those resources into basic services. The project fi ndings have been disseminated through This project proposed to implement, and analyze the re- Policy Research Working Papers, professional journals, as sults from, Quantitative Service Delivery Surveys (QSDS)

84 in four countries: Lao PDR, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Institute and UNESCO/IIEP course on Public Expenditure and Zambia. The main objective was to develop tools to Tracking Surveys, WBI core course on Education, Washing- implement micro surveys of school facilities, and highlight ton, D.C. (May 2005); World Bank Institute and UNESCO/ the ways they could be used to understand the determinants IIEP course on Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys, Preto- of education outcomes—with a focus on incentives and pro- ria, South Africa (March 2005); International Working Group vider behavior. on Education meeting, Washington, D.C. (October 2004); The analysis focused on particular questions in each country. United States Institute of Peace, Washington, D.C. (February In Lao PDR, how strongly are educational attainment and 2007); Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Devel- school attendance related to living standards, and how do opment Conference, New Haven, CT (October 2006); Spe- these relationships vary by gender, geographical location, and cial Seminar, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, ethnic affi liation? In Pakistan, what are the enrollments and Islamabad, Pakistan (July 2006); Center for Global Develop- learning outcomes in religious schools and private schools? In ment Seminar. Washington, D.C. (March 2006); Pacifi c Con- Papua New Guinea, what are the effects of gaps in fi nancial ference for Development Economics, Annual Conference, data at the school level, school fee abolishment, and inac- Santa Clara University (March 2006); The Comparative and curacies in the lists of teachers on school rosters? In Zambia, International Education Society, 50th Anniversary Celebra- how do public and private school funding compare in terms tion Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii (March 2006); Western of school inputs and learning outcomes? Economic Association, Annual Meetings, San Francisco (July In addition to the specifi c lessons learned through each of 2005); Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Con- the sub-projects, the project highlighted insights that were ference, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (April 2006); 2006 gained by combining quantitative data at the school level ASSA Meetings, Boston, MA (January 2006); 2005 New Eng- with other sources of data—for example, from household land Universities Development Conference. Providence, RI surveys, administrative records, censuses, and poverty map- (September 2005); and Education Finance and Decentraliza- ping and modeling exercises. This pilot has shown that it is tion, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (January 2005). feasible to collect high quality facility-level data that sheds The project generated the following databases: light on the determinants of improved service delivery, out- Papua New Guinea: Questionnaires, survey manuals, sur- comes, and policy priorities—all with the aim of accelerating vey project output, datasets (free): http://econ.worldbank. progress toward achieving the MDGs. org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/ One of the earliest ways the results from this project were 0,,contentMDK:20681886~pagePK:64214825~piPK:642149 disseminated was through the 2004 World Development Re- 43~theSitePK:469382,00.html. port Making Services Work for Poor People. In addition, all of Zambia: Questionnaires, survey manuals, survey project the project results have fed directly into World Bank work on output (free): http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/ma poverty and education. For Lao PDR, the results were fea- in?theSitePK=477916&contentMDK=20565785&menuPK= tured in the 2005 Laos Poverty Assessment From Valleys to 546422&pagePK=64168182&piPK=64168060#quest. Hilltops: 15 Years of Poverty Reduction, as well as in the 2006 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- Laos Public Expenditure Review. For Pakistan, the project opment and Public Services Team—Deon Filmer (Dfi lmer@ was integrated in work on education reform. For Papua New worldbank.org), Jishnu Das, Dominique van de Walle, and Guinea, it was an integral part of the 2004 Poverty Assess- Ritva Reinikka. With Ren Mu, World Bank; Asim Khwaja, ment, and infl uenced the multi-donor Human Development Harvard University; Tahir Andrabi, Pomona College; Tristan Strategy document. For Zambia, the work was disseminated Zajonc, Harvard University; Dilip Parajuli, World Bank; in the ministry of education, which has requested assistance Shruti Tina Haldea, World Bank; and Dorothy Jean Cratty, for a repeat survey. Studies in Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Mada- World Bank. gascar, and Mongolia have drawn from the knowledge base Project Code: P070007. developed as a part of the pilot. Completion date: June 2007. Project fi ndings were presented at the following: Popu- lation Association of America meetings, New York (March Publications 2007); Laos Ministry of Education Workshop, Lao, PDR Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das and Asim Ijaz Khwaja. 2006. “A Dime (April 2007); World Bank Institute core course on Education, a Day: The Possibilities and Limits of Private Schooling in Washington, D.C. (May and September 2006); Service Deliv- Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 4066. World Bank, ery Conference, Washington, D.C. (March 2006); World Bank Washington, D.C.

85 ———. 2006. “Students Today, Teachers Tomorrow: The Rise of The research seeks to answer two questions. First, which Private Schools in Pakistan.” Draft. is the most effi cient intervention to improve the education Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnuu Das, Asim Ijaz Khawaja, and Tristan and health outcomes of vulnerable children – unconditional Zajonc. 2005. “Religious School Enrollment in Pakistan: A cash transfers or conditional cash transfers? Second, for both Look at the Data.” Policy Research Working Paper 3521. types of transfers, does it make a difference whether they are World Bank, Washington, D.C. made to the mother or the father? Das, Jishnu. 2004. “Equity in Educational Expenditures: Can This study has been initiated within the Africa Multi- Government Subsidies Help?” Policy Research Working Pa- Country HIV/AIDS Program project in Burkina Faso. Ini- per 3249. World Bank, Washington, D.C. tially, it was designed to evaluate different interventions for Das, Jishnu, Stefan Dercon, James Habyarimana, and Pramila orphans and vulnerable children in the context of the HIV/ Krishnan. 2004. “Public and Private Funding of Basic Ed- AIDS epidemic. But given the diffi culty in identifying AIDS ucation in Zambia: Implications of Budgetary Allocations orphans, and given the low prevalence of HIV in rural Burki- for Service Delivery.” Africa Region Human Development na Faso, it was decided to extend the study to cover all poor Working Paper 62. World Bank, Washington, D.C. households. ———. 2004. “When Can School Inputs Improve Test Scores?” The study is based on the analysis of longitudinal house- Policy Research Working Paper 3217. World Bank, Washing- hold surveys (with at least two rounds each). Short school and ton, D.C. community surveys are also considered. This is a prospec- ———. 2005. “Teacher Shocks and Student Learning: Evidence tive study with baseline and randomization at the household from Zambia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3602. World level. Bank, Washington, D.C. The baseline survey is being launched in FY08. The proj- Das, Jishnu, Priyanka Pande, and Tristan Zajonc. 2006. “Learn- ect fi ndings will help to strengthen the evidence based on ing Levels and Gaps in Pakistan.” Policy Research Working conditional cash transfers in Africa and on whether condi- Paper 4067. World Bank, Washington, D.C. tional and unconditional cash transfers are equally effective. Datt, Gaurav, and Deon Filmer. 2004. “Papua New Guinea: Pub- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- lic Expenditures and Service Delivery.” World Bank, Wash- velopment and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque ington, D.C. ([email protected]), and Mead Over (former King, Elizabeth M., and Dominique van de Walle. Forth- World Bank staff). With Harounan Kazianga, Departement coming. “Schooling, Poverty, and Disadvantage in the d’Economie, Université de Ouagadougou. Lao People’s Democratic Republic.” In M. Lewis and M. Project Code: P0100369. Lockheed, eds., Exclusion, Gender and Education: Case Stud- Completion date: December 2010. ies from the Developing World. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development. Schooling and Poverty in Laos Reinikka, Ritva, and Nathaniel Smith. 2004. “Public Expendi- ture Tracking Surveys in Education. Peru, Uganda, Zambia.” Laos is a very poor and underdeveloped country with large IIEP Series on Ethics and Corruption in Education. IIEP- schooling disparities across gender, ethnicity, and rural and UNESCO, Paris. urban location. It is in this context that operational support and research on income, spatial, and ethnic inequalities in Impact Evaluation of Social Protection Programs in the utilization; access to schooling inputs; and educational out- Nahouri Province comes was launched. This research project is examining inequalities in the ac- The objectives of this project are to measure and compare cess to quality-adjusted education services, especially the the effects of two transfer schemes on household investment failure of such services to reach the rural poor and ethnic in child education: conditional cash transfers and uncondi- minorities in Laos. The project is exploring various policy tional cash transfers. To test whether the gender of the par- options for improving the delivery of education services. ent who controls the resources matters, transfers will be ran- A survey of primary schools was designed and fi elded in domly given to the mother or the father. For single orphans, 2002 in conjunction with the nationally representative Lao transfers will be made to the surviving parent if he or she Household Consumption Survey. Thus, all primary school lives with the child, or to the guardian; for double orphans, children in sampled households can be linked to a school. transfers will be made to the guardian. This provides a rare source of information linking access to

86 school characteristics and quality with household level char- student assessments, known as SIMCE (for its Spanish title, acteristics. The research thus links data at the household, Sistema Nacional de Medicion de la Calidad de los Establecimien- child, and primary school levels in Laos. These data are ex- tos Educativos), from 1990-2002. The analysis explored the amined using simple descriptive techniques and non-para- extent to which “noise” affected average performance scores metric and parametric regression analysis. of municipalities in Chile. The fi ndings suggested that pol- The research fi nds that over the past 40 years, Lao PDR icy-makers should exercise care in using this information to has seen steady progress in educational outcomes across the generate rankings or to single out specifi c schools as either groups in its population, as evidenced by higher enrollment good or bad. rates, literacy rates, and more schooling years completed. But Regarding implications for other countries in the region, it educational progress has not been equal across groups. Signif- is relevant to note that most Latin American countries have icant disparities exist according to a person’s residence, gen- less extensive school performance data than Chile. The proj- der, ethno-linguistic affi liation, and income, and how these ect fi ndings suggested that countries might do well to invest attributes interact. These results imply that policy interven- more in data collection and analysis. For instance, they could tions to increase schooling will not succeed unless they are gather information on student-level gains. Policy-makers carefully tailored to the specifi c constraints and needs facing could also average school performance over time, or explic- each group. itly use time-series data to produce fi ltered estimates. None This research was used extensively in the Lao PDR Pov- of these strategies would likely provide a “silver bullet” solu- erty Assessment and Public Expenditure Review. tion to the challenges described, but they might improve the Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- quality and usefulness of school performance information. velopment and Public Services Team—Dominique van de Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Edu- Walle ([email protected]) and Elizabeth King. cation Sector Unit—Emiliana Vegas (evegas@worldbank. With Constant Tra, University of Maryland; Jossy Moies; Jen- org). With Miguel Urquiola, Columbia University. nica Larisson; and Ren Mu. Project Code: P100717. Project Code: P096402. Completion date: May 2006. Completion date: December 2007. Publication Publication Vegas, Emiliana, and Jenny Petrow. Forthcoming. 2007. Raising King, Elizabeth, and Dominique van de Walle. 2007. “School- Student Learning in Latin America: The Challenge for the 21st ing, Poverty, and Disadvantage in the Lao People’s Dem- Century. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ocratic Republic.” In Maureen Lewis and Marlaine Lock- heed, eds., Exclusion, Gender and Education: Case Studies An Evaluation of Alternative Food for Education from the Developing World. Washington, D.C.: Center for Approaches Global Development. Subsidized school meals and other “food for education” pro- Evaluating Chile’s Education System grams can be attractive development programs; arguably, they address both education and nutrition objectives by tying This research project used a school-level panel on student food supplementation to regular school attendance. Based on achievement in Chile. The data were available from 1990 these potential advantages of school feeding programs, the and could be analyzed at the municipal level to address the World Food Programme, already a major provider of school research question: What characterizes education systems that meals, planned to boost participation in its school feeding have shown improvements over time? The analysis evaluated programs world-wide from 15 million children in 2004 to 50 the extent to which, controlling for changes in demographic million children by 2007. However, food for education pro- and socioeconomic characteristics, there were municipali- grams have been criticized for being less cost effective than ties in Chile where student test scores had greater relative alternative programs that focus more directly on either edu- improvement in the period 1990-2005. After identifying a cation or nutrition outcomes. group of “effective” municipalities, the analysis explored This research project compares take-home rations and their characteristics using a combination of quantitative and school meals in the same setting in order to assess their rela- qualitative data and methods. tive effectiveness. Three case studies are employed. In each, The project used data from Chile’s national system of take-home rations are provided to half the treatment schools

87 and school meals to the other half. In addition, all case stud- country’s primary enrollment rates are far below those ex- ies have a control group. All the studies use difference-in- pected for its level of income. Large gender discrepancies difference comparisons; in two studies the three strata are in the provision of education add to the problem. Further, fully randomized; and the third has randomized the treat- there are signifi cant differences in primary enrollment rates ments and matches the control group. Samples have been by household wealth. drawn from school catchment communities, thereby allowing The research project set out to learn about how education for studying the impact on enrollment as well as attendance is provided in Pakistan and the quality of education in the conditional on enrollment (the norm for school feeding stud- country. The project used data from the Learning and Edu- ies). Data collected include attendance (based on random cational Achievement in Punjab Schools Project, which was observation), tests of school achievement and cognitive ca- started in 2002 as a joint project between the World Bank, pacity, as well as a household questionnaire to obtain socio- Pomona College, and Harvard University in collaboration economic data. Anthropometric data and anemia status were with the Government of Punjab. The sample comprises 112 also collected. villages in 3 districts of Punjab—Attock, Faisalabad, and Ra- Only baseline surveys have been entered and tabulated, him Yar Khan. although in Burkina Faso and Uganda the second round data The project had three parts. The fi rst category was de- collection has begun. The data available are from school scriptive work on the schooling environment. The second terms prior to any program intervention, so there are no fi nd- category was methodological and technical analysis. The ings to date. third category was the evaluation of specifi c interventions The Uganda case study is closely tied to work at the Insti- using randomized treatment-control designs. Under this de- tute of Public Health in Kampala. All the case studies were sign, some villages/schools are randomly assigned to receive designed with the Ministry of Education and the local offi ce an intervention, and the effect of the intervention is calcu- of the World Food Programme. lated by comparing the difference in outcome between the Although the World Bank does not generally fi nance school villages/schools that received the intervention and those that feeding programs, many clients do. Moreover, the underlying did not. behavioral model of these programs is similar to conditional The project has generated several major outputs ranging cash transfers (CCTs). Insights gained from this research can from extensive data collection, research output on specifi c help design more cost effective, demand-side interventions. topics, capacity building for survey methods and data compi- The initial results of this project may be utilized in the Policy lation, and test design for school-going children. Research Report on CCTs under preparation. The project revised the report on the Learning and Educa- Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Regional Human De- tional Achievement in Punjab Schools project after receiving velopment—Harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank), Jed enthusiastic feedback from reviewers. The report provides a Friedman, and Damian de Walque, DRG. With Harounan comprehensive look at the state of education in the villages. Kazianga; Alison Buttenheim, Princeton University; Interna- The report contains chapters on enrollment and learning, tional Food Policy Research Institute; Daniel Gilligan, Inter- schools, teachers, and households. national Food Policy Research Institute; Institute of Public Project fi ndings have been presented at various confer- Health, Makerere University; and Opifer, Laos. ences and seminars in Pakistan and the United States. These Project Code: P100887. venues include the Center for Global Development (Wash- Completion date: May 2009. ington, D.C.), Harvard University, George Washington Uni- versity, Indiana University at Purdue, Lahore University of Publication Management Sciences, Michigan University, University of Buttenheim, Alison, Harold Alderman, and Jed Friedman. 2007. Maryland, the BREAD conference, the NBER conference “Development Induced Displacement and Children’s Hu- on Education, and the World Bank. man Capital.” Paper presented at the meetings of the Popu- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- lation Association. velopment and Public Services Team—Jishnu Das (jdas1@ worldbank.org) and Tara Vishwanath. With Asim Ijaz Khwaja, Improving School in Pakistan Harvard University; Tahir Andrabi, Pomona College; and Tristan Zajonc, Harvard University. Pakistan’s educational system has been unable to harness Project Code: P098137. the opportunities presented by an educated populace. The Completion date: December 2009.

88 Publications Responsibility: East Asia and Pacifi c Region, Human Develop- Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das, and Asim Ijaz Khwaja. 2006a. “A ment Sector Department—Elizabeth King (eking@world- Dime a Day: The Possibilities and Limits of Private School- bank.org). With Branko Milanovic. ing in Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 4066. World Project Code: P075001. Bank, Washington, D.C. Completion date: July 2005. ______. 2006b. “Students Today, Teachers Tomorrow: Identify- ing Constraints on the Provision of Education.” World Bank, Publication Washington, D.C. Milanovic, Branko. 2006. “Inequality and Determinants of Earn- Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das, Asim I. Khwaja, and Tristan Za- ings in Malaysia, 1984-97.” Asian Economic Journal 20(2, jonc. 2005a. “Religious Schooling in Pakistan: A Look at the June): 191-216. Data.” Comparative Education Review; Policy Research Work- ing Paper 3521. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Evaluating the Impact of HIV/AIDS Prevention ______. 2005b. “Report Card Methodology: LEAPS Project.” Education in Primary Schools: Western Province, Kenya Tool-Book. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Das, Jishnu, Priyanka Pande, and Tristan Zajonc. 2006. “Learn- In Africa, the majority of children attend primary school, ing Levels and Gaps in Pakistan.” Policy Research Working which makes schools a strategic forum for targeted HIV pre- Paper 4067. World Bank, Washington, D.C. vention education. Although many countries have incorporated HIV/AIDS education in their school curriculum, there Changing Gender Bias in a Fast-Developing Country: A is limited rigorous evidence from controlled trials on whether Case Study of Malaysia, 1984–97 incorporating HIV/AIDS education in schools can change sexual behavior. Several assumptions suggest that gender bias would tend to This research project used a randomized evaluation de- decline in fast-developing economies as they open to inter- sign to evaluate whether basic HIV/AIDS prevention educa- national markets and become exposed to stronger foreign tion is a cost-effective means of preventing HIV/AIDS. The competition. Rising demand for labor would eventually draw baseline sample for the evaluation was made up of 74,000 into the labor force a growing share of women and raise the students in Kenya who were enrolled in 2003 in grades 5 to 8 opportunity cost of women staying at home in their tradi- in the 328 schools in the sample. The project collected data tional roles, leading to change in social attitudes. This pro- on several intermediate outcomes. However, the main mea- cess would entail broader education and higher educational sure of whether behavior changed was the rate of childbear- achievement among women, undermining the basis for gen- ing among the girls enrolled in school at the baseline. der bias. And greater competition and openness make dis- The project fi ndings showed that after three years, the crimination expensive—workers who, because of discrimina- teacher training program had little impact on teen childbear- tion, are paid less than their productivity will tend to move ing, students’ knowledge, and self-reported sexual activity elsewhere, reducing profi ts of “discriminating” employers and condom use. However, the program increased students’ and increasing those of “gender blind” employers. tolerance toward people with HIV/AIDS, and girls exposed This research project used three large, nationally repre- to the program were more likely to be married to the fathers sentative Malaysian Household Income Surveys from 1984, of their children. The fi ndings also showed that informing 1989, and 1997 to study inequality, determinants of earnings, girls about variation in HIV rates by age and sex led girls and gender and ethnic bias (in earnings). During 1984-97, to avoid cross-generation partnerships, which are particularly participation rates for both men and women went up among risky, but increased self-reported sexual activity with other all age groups, and the average number of years of school- teenagers, although it did not increase pregnancies among ing increased by 1.2 years, and by even more for women. teenage couples. Reducing the cost of education by paying There was a signifi cant relative wage improvement among for school uniforms reduced dropout rates and the incidence the bottom deciles. The rate of return to an additional year of teen childbearing. of schooling remained high (at 10 percent) despite the huge Although cultural factors may differ across countries, the increase in the supply of the highly educated. Female wage Kenyan situation is likely to yield important lessons for East “discrimination” nevertheless amounted to 16-20 percent and Southern Africa, where 70 percent of the world’s popula- in 1997, and the bias has grown despite increased returns to tion living with AIDS lives, and for other developing countries. education for women. Preliminary discussions with policy-makers and practitioners

89 suggest that the research fi ndings could be easily included factors associated with the incidence of child labor and the in existing or future prevention programs in other parts of effects of child labor on subsequent socioeconomic outcomes Kenya, and elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa. The promis- for young adults, such as education, wages, and health. ing preliminary results were discussed in July 2006 during a A fi rst study focused on Tanzania, using data from the meeting with the Kenya Permanent Secretary for Education, Kagera Health and Development Survey of 1991–94. The as well as the coordinator of the AIDS Control Unit of the results suggested that credit constraints helped explain child Kenya Ministry of Education, Science and Technology. labor and thus that child labor was ineffi cient, although al- Project fi ndings were presented at the following: Third ternative interpretations were also explored. The research London Conference on Laboratory Experiments and the highlighted important constraints to increasing schooling and Field, UCL (June 2007); Fourth Minnesota International reducing child labor, mainly economic shocks and diffi cult ac- Economic Development Conference (May 2007); New cess to credit. A second study, using data from the Vietnam York University (April 2007); Stanford (February 2007); UC Living Standards Surveys of 1992–93 and 1997–98, provided Berkeley (February 2007); University of Michigan (October evidence that child labor was prevalent among households 2006); World Bank (October 2006); NEUDC Conference, that were likely to have higher borrowing costs, that were Cornell University, (September 2006); Columbia University farther from schools, and whose adults experienced negative (September 2006); Duke University (September 2006); Yale returns to their own education. This evidence suggested that University (September 2006); Kenya Ministry of Educa- reducing child labor would require both facilitating access tion (July 2006); Tufts University (February 2006); Harvard to credit and persuading parents that their children would Graduate School of Education (February 2006); London experience positive returns to education. The fi ndings of School of Economics (February 2006); University of Houston the Vietnam study also suggested that the labor market out- (February 2006); Université du Québec à Montréal (Janu- comes of young adults infl uenced decisions relating to child ary 2006); Dartmouth College (January 2006); Notre-Dame labor. A third study was produced with the 2004 round of the University (January 2006); and Michigan State University Kagera Health and Development Survey. (January 2006). The project fi ndings have been disseminated at the fol- Responsibility: Human Development Network. Education lowing: Northeast Universities Development Consortium Team—Donald Bundy ([email protected]). With In- Conferences (October 2002 and October 2003); World Bank novations for Poverty Action Kenya, Busia, Kenya. seminars (November 2002 and February 2004); George Wash- Project Code: P094082. ington University (January 2003); World Bank Economists’ Completion date: July 2007. Forum (February 2003); World Bank seminar (April 2003); Columbia University (October 2003); New York University Publications (February 2004 and November 2004); Centre for the Study Dupas, Pascaline. 2006. “Cheap and Effective Ways to Change of African Economies, Oxford UK (March 2004 and March Adolescents’ Sexual Behavior.” Policy Briefcase No 3. Mas- 2007); Indiana University–Purdue University Indianapolis sachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Econom- (April 2004); Conference on 75 Years of Development Eco- ics, Poverty Action Lab. nomics at Cornell University (May 2004); National Bureau of Dufl o, Esther, Pascaline Dupas, Michael Kremer, and Samuel Si- Economic Research Summer Institute, Boston (August 2004); nei. 2006. “Education and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Evidence Center for Economic and Policy Research (September 2005); from a Randomized Evaluation in Western Kenya.” Policy Re- Public Economic Theory Conference, Hanoi (July 2006); In- search Working Paper 4024. World Bank, Washington, D.C. diana University (October 2006); Paris School of Economics Dupas, Pascaline. 2006. “Relative Risks and the Market for Sex: (February 2007); University of Toulouse I (February 2007); Teenagers, Sugar Daddies and HIV in Kenya.” MPRA Pa- CIDE in Mexico City (March 2007); Rutgers University per. University Library of Munich, Germany. (March 2007); World Bank Child Labor and Education: Ac- cess and Quality Workshop (April 2007); Hebrew University Child Labor and Access to Credit (May 2007); and Tel Aviv University (May 2007). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team- Despite an extensive literature on the determinants of child Kathleen Beegle ([email protected]) and Roberta labor and many initiatives aimed at combating it, there is lim- Gatti. With Rajeev Dehejia, Tufts University and NBER. ited evidence on its causes and consequences. This project, Project Code: P081465. using longitudinal household survey data, investigated the Completion date: December 2004.

90 Publications tively low quality schooling. The analysis did not show the Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev Dehejia, and Roberta Gatti. 2004. effects of the scholarship on repetition rates or test scores. “Why Should We Care about Child Labor? The Education, Furthermore, the analysis did not draw convincing cost-ef- Labor Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor.” fectiveness comparisons. Nevertheless, given the paucity of Policy Research Working Paper 3479. World Bank, Washing- evidence from low-income countries, these estimates of large ton, D.C.; CEPR Discussion Paper 4443; NBER Working program impacts may be cause for optimism. Paper 10980. The preliminary fi ndings of this project were used to help ———. 2005. “Child Labor, Crop Shocks, and Credit Con- design a World Bank-funded education-support project. The straints.” Policy Research Working Paper 3075. World Bank, results are serving as input into a Policy Research Report re- Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. viewing the lessons learned from conditional cash transfer ———. 2006. “Child Labor and Agricultural Shocks.” Journal of programs around the world. Development Economics 81(1): 80-96. Project fi ndings were presented at the following: World Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev H. Dehejia, Roberta Gatti, and Sofya Bank Research Department Poverty and Applied Micro Krutikova. 2006. “The Consequences of Child Labor in Seminar Series, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (May 2005); Rural Tanzania: Evidence from Longitudinal Data.” World Thematic Group on Poverty Impact Analysis, Monitoring Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. and Evaluation, Thematic Group on Social Safety Nets and Transfers Brown Bag Lunch;.and Seminar on Evaluating Evaluating the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Scholarship and Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Programs: School Outcomes in Cambodia Evidence from Cambodia and the World, World Bank Offi ce in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Evaluations of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in Latin America suggest that they have high potential, but Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— there is little comparable evidence from other regions, es- Deon Filmer (dfi [email protected]), Norbert Schady, Luis pecially lower-income countries. Therefore it is not known Benveniste, and Cristobal Ridao-Cano. With Charis Wuerffel, whether it would be useful to apply the lessons from Latin consultant; and BN Consult, consulting fi rm. America elsewhere. Project Code: P094396. This research project evaluated the impact of CCT pro- Completion date: June 2006. grams on schooling outcomes in Cambodia. The project used impact evaluation exploiting the “natural experiment” as- Publications pects of the CCT programs. In particular, the study used data Filmer, Deon, and Norbert Schady. 2006. “Getting Girls into from applicants to the program and follow-up data on their School: Evidence from a Scholarship Program in Cambodia.” enrollment, attendance, and achievement status to assess Policy Research Working Paper 3910. World Bank, Washing- whether applicants who received a scholarship had different ton, D.C. outcomes than those who did not. The project estimated the ———. 2006. “Getting Girls into School: Evidence from Cam- impact of a scholarship program for poor girls in Cambodia bodia.” World Bank Research Digest 1(2). funded by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction. ———. Forthcoming. “Getting Girls into School: Evidence from The main fi nding was that enrollment and attendance a Scholarship Program in Cambodia.” Economic Development rates among scholarship recipients were approximately 30 and Cultural Change. percentage points higher than they would have been in the absence of the program. Because enrollment rates in low- Beneﬁ ts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Cambodia income countries like Cambodia tend to be much lower than those in middle-income countries, the potential scope for Low levels of education among the children of poor house- program impacts may be larger in the poorest countries. holds frequently condemn them to poverty as adults, so that The analysis showed that selection on unobservables and lack of education is one mechanism whereby poverty gets selective transfers from program schools to other schools were transmitted across generations. Conditional cash transfer not empirically important. The results showed that demand- (CCT) programs transfer resources to poor households condi- side incentives could effectively increase the school enroll- tional on these households enrolling their children in school ment and attendance of girls in one of the poorest countries and taking them for regular visits to health care providers. . in the world, with weak public sector institutions and rela- This research project aims to shed light on the potential

91 benefi ts of a CCT program in Cambodia. Ongoing work Survey 1 shows that BDH has had a large, positive ef- based on past pilot programs has suggested that these pro- fect on school enrollment (about 10 percentage points), and grams have the potential to improve educational outcome. a large, negative effect on child work (about 20 percentage This new research aims to (1) investigate the potential bene- points). The impacts are concentrated among poorer house- fi ts of various cash transfers, (2) investigate the potential ben- holds, and among households that mistakenly believed that efi ts of a technocratic approach to targeting, and (3) evaluate transfers were conditioned on school enrollment. These the impact of the intervention on a range of outcomes and at fi ndings suggest that BDH and other similar programs would various points in time. benefi t from fi ner targeting, and from conditions attached The main approach to evaluating the impact of the pro- to transfers. gram will be to use the specifi c program design features of a Analysis of the baseline for Survey 2 shows that there are “scholarship” program in order to compare outcomes among very steep socioeconomic gradients in cognitive develop- recipients with those of comparable non-recipients. The ment among preschool-age children in Ecuador—gradients analysis will use data collected during four school visits car- that become more apparent as children grow older. More- ried out over a span of two school years, as well as data from over, household wealth and parental education appear to play household visits to a subset of program applicants. an important protective role. Better targeting of the program The research builds on past research that has shown the is again an obvious policy implication of these fi ndings. potential for CCT-like programs to be effective in Cambodia. This research is critical for a better understanding of the Baseline data on scholarship applicants have been collected, impact of conditional cash transfer programs. There are by but follow-up data are being digitized and there are no fi nd- now such programs in virtually every Latin American coun- ings as yet. This research will shed light on these issues, and try, many of which are supported by World Bank projects. infl uence the way the World Bank supports the implementa- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Develop- tion (or not) of these types of programs in client countries. ment and Public Services Team—Norbert Schady (nschady@ Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty worldbank.org). With Maria Caridad Araujo, University of Team—Deon Filmer (dfi [email protected]), Norbert California at Berkeley; Christina Paxson, Princeton Univer- Schady, Luis Benveniste, and Omporn Regel. With Charis sity; and Lia Fernald, University of California at Berkeley. Wuerffel, consultant. Project Code: P090730. Project Code: P095662. Completion date: December 2009. Completion date: June 2008. Publications Evaluating the Impact of the Bono de Desarrollo Humano Paxson, C., and N. Schady. 2007. “Cognitive Development among Cash Transfer Program—Ecuador Young Children in Ecuador: The Roles of Wealth, Health, and Parenting.” Journal of Human Resources 42(1): 49-84. Cash transfer programs, both conditional and unconditional, ———. 2007. “Does Money Matter? The Effect of Cash Trans- are increasingly proposed as a way of encouraging poor house- fers on Child Health and Development in Rural Ecuador.” holds to invest in the schooling and health of their children. A Policy Research Working Paper 4226. World Bank, Washing- convincing evaluation of one such program, PROGRESA in ton, D.C. Mexico, suggests that they have high potential. Schady, N., and M. Araujo. 2006. “Cash Transfers, Conditions, This research project will evaluate the impact of the Bono School Enrollment and Child Work: Evidence from a Ran- de Desarrollo Humano program in Ecuador, a large program domized Experiment in Ecuador.” Policy Research Working accounting for approximately 0.7 percentage points of GDP. Paper 3930. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The project randomly divided a sub-sample of potential ben- Schady, N., and J. Rosero. Forthcoming. “Are Cash Transfers efi ciary households into treatment and control groups. Treat- Made to Women Spent Like Other Sources of Income?” Pol- ment households would receive BDH transfers while control icy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. group households would be excluded from transfers for the duration of the study. Separate baseline and follow-up sur- Globalization and School Attainment veys have been collected to analyze the impact of the program on schooling, child labor, and household expenditures This research project has two distinct components. Com- (Survey 1), and early childhood development, child health, ponent 1 focuses on changes in relative wages in Latin and maternal health (Survey 2). America—specifi cally, the extent to which the rate of return

92 to education has increased since the 1980s and the possible son, and communicate their ideas effectively. And it sought causes for the observed changes. Component 2 focuses on to identify the factors that determine effective teaching and changes in the world distribution of schooling—specifi cally, learning of skills and competencies for the knowledge econo- how changes in the distribution of school attainment be- my in Argentina. The research was based on the results of an tween 1960 and 2000 can be attributed to changes across and internationally standardized assessment administered to ran- within countries. dom samples of 4,500 or more 15-year-old students in a large The research on the changes in the relative wages of skilled number of countries to evaluate their mastery of reading, and unskilled workers (component 1) is based on analysis of mathematics, and science. The assessment was done in 2000 repeated cross-sections of labor force surveys in fi ve of the by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Devel- largest countries in Latin America—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, opment’s Programme for International Student Assessment. Colombia, and Mexico. The project constructed consistent The research included a descriptive analysis of the overall measures of wages, educational attainment, and age for each performance of students and relies on a microeconometric country, on an annual basis, for the 1980s and 1990s. It also student-level estimation to investigate the factors associated identifi ed workers’ industry and sector of employment, and with learning and performance in reading, science, and math- merged the data with macroeconomic data on changes in im- ematics. An education production function was used to relate port penetration and the research and development content students’ performance to their learning environment. Gen- of imports. eralized least squares were estimated to disentangle student The fi ndings suggest that there has been a dramatic in- effects from teacher, classroom, or school effects. crease in the relative wages of the most skilled workers in The results showed that although the performance of Ar- Latin America, and that skill-biased technological change gentine students was similar to that of their peers in most other transmitted through trade plays an important part in explain- Latin American countries, more could be done to raise their ing the observed changes in the wage distribution. performance to a level comparable with that of other coun- Research on the changing distribution of school attain- tries participating in the assessment. The results also showed ment is based on cross-sections of household surveys for ap- the need for immediate action to help students master the proximately 100 developed and developing countries. The reading, math, and science skills required for the knowledge basic methodology involved calculating measures of the economy. Further, the country needs to reduce the unusually mean and the distribution of school attainment, by country, high dispersion in performance among students. for successive birth cohorts. The fi ndings show that as mean The performance of Argentine students was associated most years of schooling have increased, inequality has decreased. strongly with the school and learning climate; with the qual- These changes have also brought about decreases in gender ity of teachers, their instruction, and their ability to use re- inequality in schooling, in particular in those countries and sources; and with the extent to which students are encour- regions with the largest initial levels of gender inequality. aged, guided, and oriented to be effective learners. The project fi ndings were featured in the World Bank’s 2006 Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Edu- World Development Report on Equity and Development. cation Sector Unit—Harry Patrinos (hpatrinos@worldbank. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- org), and Human Development Sector Unit—Ariel Fiszbein velopment and Public Services Team—Norbert Schady and Sergio España. With Husein Abdul-Hamid, University of ([email protected]), Carolina Sanchez-Paramo, and Maryland; Eric Hanushek, Stanford University; and Graciana Francisco Ferreira. With Maria Caridad Araujo, University Rucci, University of California at Los Angeles. of California at Berkeley; and Marco Manacorda, London Project Code: P087890. School of Economics. Completion date: December 2004. Project Code: P094728. Completion date: December 2008. Publication Abdul-Hamid, Husein. Forthcoming. “Assessing Argentina’s Assessing Argentina’s Preparedness for the Knowledge Preparedness for the Knowledge Economy: Measuring Stu- Economy dent Knowledge and Skills in Reading, Mathematical and Scientific Literacy: Evidence from PISA 2000.” In Well-Being This research project assessed Argentina’s preparedness for and Social Policy. the knowledge economy and lifelong learning. It investigated whether students in Argentina were able to analyze, rea-

93 Labor Regulations and Technology in India’s Retail personnel not only play a central role in the delivery of care Stores and education, but they also claim the lion’s share of recurrent expenditures. Being so numerous, the remuneration and Modern technology does not displace labor in general. How- labor supply behaviors of public service employees affect the ever, this research project makes the case that if labor regula- total supply of labor to basic services, including those of pri- tions are very burdensome to employers, then and only then vate sector employees who cannot be totally insulated from do they use modern technology to displace labor. Thus, labor labor regulations and incentive schemes intended to affect reforms are all the more imperative in countries where tech- public sector workers. And because public service workers nology is fast spreading. typically account for the bulk of government expenditures The project analyzed the effects of rigid labor regulation for basic services—accounting perhaps for nearly three- on jobs in the presence of labor-saving technology in India’s quarters of government spending on health and education— retail sector. It used conventional regression analysis to test improving their performance is an important budgetary and the hypothesis that job losses depend on the availability fi scal management issue. of cheap, labor-saving technology such as computers. The These large research areas require new and extensive data analysis was based on data from the World Bank’s Enterprise collection, new empirical approaches, and new analyses. This Surveys – a new dataset of 1,948 retail businesses in 16 states ongoing research project addresses labor issues pertaining and 41 cities in India. to the remuneration, labor supply, and incentives for perfor- The country’s retail sector is highly labor intensive. It is mance of service providers in developing countries. the second largest employer (after agriculture), providing jobs Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- to 9 percent of all employed workers. Labor regulations are opment and Public Services Team—Elizabeth M. King (Ek- likely to become increasingly important as the sector moves [email protected]). into modern retailing. Project Code: P101922. The project results showed that the negative effect of Completion date: Ongoing. labor regulations on employment was signifi cantly higher for stores that used computers. For example, in the state of Labor Informality: Estimating the Beneﬁ ts and the Costs Maharashtra, the negative effect of rigid labor regulations on in Brazil employment due to computer usage was about 15 percent of current employment. Thus, the project fi ndings empha- In developing countries, there is a large gap between de fac- sized the importance of labor reforms for job creation in the to regulation and its effective implementation. The project retail sector. explores the within-country variation (across 5,200 Brazilian Responsibility: Enterprise Analysis Unit, FPDEA—Simeon cities) in the strength of regulation caused by enforcement. Djankov ([email protected]). Conceptually, variation in enforcement is close to exploring Project Code: P103771. changes in de facto regulation. Completion date: January 2007. The analysis uses three main sources of data for Brazil. First, city level data covering all Brazilian cities on the main Labor Issues in Service Delivery: Pay, Incentives, and outcomes of interest (employment, unemployment, labor Performance of Service Providers productivity, poverty and inequality) and on other economic and demographic city characteristics are from IPEA and Improving educational and health outcomes in many devel- IBGE. These data are available for 1970, 1980, 1990, and oping countries is virtually impossible without raising the 2000. Second, administrative data come from the Ministry of quality of service delivery for the poor. This means being Labor on enforcement of labor regulation at the city level for able to attract well-qualifi ed professionals to these services, 2000. Third, city level institutional data (governance, access motivating them to do their best in the job, supporting their to justice, quality of management and index of institutional effort, and retaining the good performers. In turn, these ac- quality) were kindly provided by Rodrigo Soares. tivities require adequate incentives and appropriate manage- The analysis regresses different equity and effi ciency ment structures in education and health systems. measures on enforcement of labor regulation in the city, con- The employees of public service facilities are tremen- trolling for predetermined city level characteristics. Enforce- dously important both for development reasons and from a ment is measured by the number of inspected fi rms per 100 budgetary perspective. Teachers, doctors, and other health fi rms in the city (2002). Enforcement is instrumented with

94 distance to the nearest sub-delegacia interacted with the number of inspectors in the state (always controlling for distance to the nearest sub-delegacia, transportation costs, and distance to the capital city). There is strong evidence that labor regulations involve a trade-off between effi ciency and equity in Brazil. The fi ndings show that regions where enforcement is tighter have more unemployment, but they also have less poverty. The empirical fi ndings suggest that regulation improves the situation of the poor (possibly through minimum wages and more job security). And there is robust evidence that in cities where there is stricter enforcement, the wages of the poor improve and in generally productivity is higher. Some of the preliminary fi ndings of this project where used in the informality report recently published by the offi ce of the chief economist in the World Bank’s Latin America and the Caribbean Department. Project output has been presented at the following conferences: the European Economic As- sociation Conference, Budapest, Hungary, August 2007; the IZA/World Bank Conference on Employment and Develop- ment, Bonn, Germany, June 2007; and the Economists’ Fo- rum at the World Bank, Washington, DC, April 2007. Responsibility: Social Protection Team, Labor Market Unit—Ri- ta Almeida ([email protected]). With Pedro Carneiro, University College London, Renata Narita, University Col- lege London. Project Code: P0100843. Completion date: December 2008.

95 Infrastructure and Urban Development

Infrastructure Reform in Developing Countries Project Code: P081965. Completion date: June 2008. Through a range of studies, this research project is examining various aspects of infrastructure reform in developing Publications countries, particularly in the electricity sector. Bell, Michael, and Khalid Bichou. 2007. “The Port Sector in The project begins by proposing a set of indicators as a South Africa: Towards an Integrated Policy and Institutional fi rst step toward fi lling the gap – the lack of generally ac- Reform.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. cepted and measured indicators for monitoring their prog- Chisari, Omar O., and Ioannis N. Kessides. 2007. “The Pricing ress, effects, and performance – covering resource and insti- Dynamics of Utilities with Underdeveloped Networks.” tutional endowments, key reform steps, market structure, Policy Research Working Paper 4198. World Bank, Washing- performance, and different types of impact. ton, D.C. First, the project reviews a number of studies of the effec- Clarke, George R.G., Katrina Kosec, and Scott Wallsten. 2004. tiveness of utility regulatory agency and governance arrange- “Has Private Participation in Water and Sewerage Im- ments for the electricity industry, particularly in developing proved Coverage? Empirical Evidence from Latin Amer- countries. Second, drawing on theoretical and empirical work ica.” Policy Research Working Paper 3445. World Bank, on the impact of independent central banks and of developing Washington, D.C. country telecommunications regulators, the study assesses for Cubbin, John, and Jon Stern. 2005. “Regulatory Effectiveness 28 developing countries over the period 1980–2001 whether and the Empirical Impact of Variations in Regulatory Gover- a regulatory law and higher-quality regulatory governance are nance: Electricity Industry Capacity and Efficiency in De- signifi cantly associated with superior outcomes in electricity. veloping Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3535. Third, the project carries out empirical studies on the effects World Bank, Washington, D.C. of introducing private participation in water and sewerage in Henisz, Witold J., and Bennet A. Zelner. 2005. “Resistance to developing countries are scant and generally inconclusive. Multilateral Influence on Reform: The Political Backlash Fourth, two studies look at the comprehensive electricity against Private Infrastructure Investments.” Policy Research sector reform in Chile and Argentina. Fifth, the project gleans Working Paper 3690. World Bank, Washington, D.C. lessons from international experience with electricity market Jamasb, Tooraj, Raffaella Mota, David Newbery, and Michael monitoring. Sixth, the project is studying those features of Pollitt. 2004. “Electricity Sector Reform in Developing the electricity supply industry that made a prospective mar- Countries: A Survey of Empirical Evidence on Determi- ket monitoring process essential to a well-functioning whole- nants and Performance.” Cambridge Working Papers in sale market. Economics 0439. Cambridge University, Department of Seventh, the project is analyzing resistance to multilateral Applied Economics. infl uence on reform: the political backlash against private in- Jamasb, Tooraj, David Newbery, and Michael Pollitt. 2004. “Core frastructure investments. Eighth, one of the studies employs Indicators for Determinants and Performance of Electricity an analytically tractable inter-temporal framework for analyz- Sector in Developing Countries.” Cambridge Working Pa- ing the dynamic pricing of a utility with an underdeveloped pers in Economics 0438. Cambridge University, Department network facing a competitive fringe, short-run network ad- of Applied Economics. justment costs, theft of service, and the threat of a retaliatory Kessides, Ioannis N., Zeljko Bogetic, and Luiz Maurer. 2007. regulatory review that is increasing with the price it charges. “Current and Forthcoming Issues in the South African Elec- Ninth, the project considers whether there are signifi cant tricity Sector.” Policy Research Working Paper 4197. World gains from restructuring systems that are moderately well Bank, Washington, D.C. run, using South Africa’s electricity system as a case in point. Kessides, Ioannis N., and David Newbery. 2007. “Uganda Elec- Tenth, the project studies the regionalization of telecommu- tricity Restructuring.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. nications reform in West Africa. Kessides, Ioannis N., and Roger G. Noll. 2007. “Regionalizing Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and In- Telecommunications Reform in West Africa.” Policy Re- vestment Team—Ioannis Kessides ([email protected]). search Working Paper 3872. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

96 Kessides, Ioannis, and Michael Pollitt. “Electricity Reform in standard accounting data, it might be possible to get a global Argentina: Lessons for Developing Countries.” World Bank, picture of the fi rm suffi cient enough to highlight trade-offs Washington, D.C. between equity, effi ciency, and fi scal concerns Newbery, David, and Anton Eberhardt. 2007. “An Independent The project studied the production and supply of water in Assessment of the Performance of the Electricity Sector the period 2001-04 in Mali in the year following the service in South Africa: Key Challenges and Recommendations.” privatization. The sample was largely made up of 16 towns World Bank, Washington, D.C. and cities. There was detailed information for each observa- Noll, R. 2007. “Telecommunications in South Africa: Institutions, tion on income per product, but not for costs. The analysis al- Performance and Policy.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. located an operating cost to each observation based on calcu- Pollitt, Michael, and Ioannis Kessides. “Electricity Reform in lating an average unit cost for each input. The results showed Chile: Lessons for Developing Countries.” World Bank, that important improvements arising from technical change Washington, D.C. and economies of scale have been partly counteracted by a Stern, Jon, and John Cubbin. 2005. “Regulatory Effectiveness: negative cost effi ciency effect. The Impact of Regulation and Regulatory Governance Ar- Responsibility: Africa Region, Sustainable Development Front rangements on Electricity Industry Outcomes.” Policy Re- Offi ce—C. Briceno-Garmendia (cbricenogarmendi@world- search Working Paper 3536. World Bank, Washington, D.C. bank.org) and A. Estache. With Emili Grifell-Tatjé, Univer- Thompson, Louis. 2007. “Spoornet and Transnet Sectoral Refer- sitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Massa Coulibaly and Lourdes ence Paper.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Trujillo, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria; and Wolak, Frank. 2005a. “Lessons from International Experience Richard Schlirf. with Electricity Market Monitoring.” Policy Research Work- Project Code: P098296. ing Paper 3692. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Completion date: June 2006. ———. 2005b. “Managing Unilateral Market Power in Elec- tricity.” Policy Research Working Paper 3691. World Bank, Dynamics of Rural Energy Use in Bangladesh Washington, D.C. In 2004 the World Bank initiated in 2004 two surveys in rural The Distributional Effects of Utilities Reforms: A Low- Bangladesh – one focused on rural households and the other Cost Evaluation Methodology on village micro-enterprises and rural growth centers – to elicit information on energy-using behavior and characteris- Until the early 1990s, most infrastructure services in devel- tics. This research project identifi ed ways to raise the stan- oping countries were delivered by quasi-self-regulated pub- dard of living in rural Bangladesh through better and more lic monopolies. The 1990s saw major transformations in the effi cient use of energy, while creating an environment con- role of the public sector in the delivery of these services. ducive to growth and poverty reduction. The main objective of this research project was to develop a For any developing country, the crux of a rural energy methodological tool that would allow regulators and policy- strategy is to have more and better choices for meeting ru- makers to relatively easily identify the winners and losers of ral demand for energy through the market mechanism and reforms. The tool would quantify effi ciency gains using busi- sound policy. This goes hand in hand with the development ness profi ts and other fi nancial indicators publicly available of competent implementing institutions, which are critical in annual reports and utilities accounts. The project used the to the process. New supply and demand-side technologies water sector in Mali as a case study. can be used to raise rural people’s welfare and improve pro- The project presented and tested a consistent framework ductivity to increase growth prospects. Accordingly, the rural to simultaneously quantify effi ciency gains and their distri- energy strategy advocated by this study aims to satisfy the bution across the main stakeholders by relying on standard types of demand that increase household welfare and raise accounting data and information usually available from the rural growth prospects as energy becomes a direct input into routine monitoring conducted by engineers and fi nancial the production process. analysts. The framework allowed the joint consideration of Promoting more equitable rural access and use of modern all the relevant quantity and price variables to provide an in- energy implies the need for sound pricing policies to increase tegrated assessment of the social, fi scal, and economic per- supply and reliability. One major recommendation resulting formance of a fi rm responsible for the delivery of an infra- from this study is to develop the long-term institutional ca- structure public service. The exercise showed that with some pacity to tackle rural energy issues in all their complexity.

97 Such an institution would promote rural energy solutions Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Develop- through technical assistance, advice to government, and fa- ment Team—Forhad Shilpi ([email protected]). With cilitation of grants and loans for worthy projects. Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford University. The Danish, Japanese, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural De- and Swedish Consultant Trust Funds contributed funding velopment Team—Shahidur Khandker (skhandker@ for the research. worldbank. org). Project Code: P063054. Project Code: P103514. Completion date: December 2006. Completion date: February 2007. Publications Emergence from Subsistence: Infrastructure, Location, Emran, M.S., and Forhad Shilpi. 2006. “The Extent of the Mar- and Development in Nepal ket and Stages of Agricultural Specialization.” World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. This research project studied the relationships between in- Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi. 2005. “Cities and Spe- frastructure, geographic location, and economic development cialization: Evidence from South Asia.” Economic Journal and welfare in Nepal—a particularly suitable place to study 115(503): 477–504. spatial specialization because of its extreme diversity in ac- ———. 2007a. “Isolation and Subjective Well-Being.” CEPR cessibility and in proximity to urban centers. To study how Discussion Paper 6001. proximity to towns and cities affected household participa- ———. 2007b. “Subjective Welfare, Isolation and Relative Con- tion in labor and output markets and their allocation of land, sumption.” CEPR Discussion Paper 6002. the research used a modifi ed von Thunen model of specialization. The study used nonparametric approach that allowed Measuring Quantity-Quality Tradeoffs in Regulated for a fl exible relationship between household decisions and Industries proximity to cities of different sizes. The fi rst stage of the research combined household data This research project tested a method for measuring tradeoffs from the1995–96 Nepal Living Standards Survey with geo- between the volume and the quality of outputs in service graphic information system data on travel time to major cit- delivery. The analysis calculated a synthetic indicator that al- ies. It also used urban population data from the 1991 popu- lowed the integration of various outputs and various dimen- lation census. Estimation based on a cross-section of 3,300 sions of quality and was general enough to apply to a wide households revealed a strong spatial division of labor. Non- range of effi ciency-quality tradeoffs. The indicator, based on farm employment was heavily concentrated in and around a Malmquist productivity index, relied on the calculation of cities, while agricultural wage employment dominated vil- an effi ciency frontier (using data envelopment analysis) that lages located farther away. Isolated villages were essentially includes quality adjustments. The study tested the indicator self-subsistent. Vegetable and cereal production for sale took using data from the Brazilian rail freight industry both before place near urban centers, while oilseed and other commercial and after privatization. crops were more important at intermediate distances. The results showed that Brazilian rail freight operators do Isolation tended to reduce a household’s satisfaction with not always adjust quality to favor quantity, perhaps as a result adequacy of consumption and income. Moreover, the rela- of the safety incentives built into the concession contracts. tive income effect was more intense in relatively isolated vil- Indeed, all private operators managed to improve quality, lages. The policy simulations showed that a reduction in iso- and three did so at the expense of quantity. Thus the main lation (due to investment in infrastructure) resulted in large policy lesson may be that incentives matter. Another is that if gain in well-being with households located closer to markets regulators choose to provide incentives in a specifi c direction, benefi ting most. Villages in and near cities had more diversi- they need to make that choice as explicit as possible in the fi ed and market-oriented activities—implying the existence design of regulatory regimes. of externalities that were harnessed through markets. The The project fi ndings have been disseminated through agglomeration effects appeared to be much smaller within presentations at an infrastructure economics workshop in sectors—except in manufacturing, where proximity to cities Berlin (October 2004) and through events organized by was associated with larger fi rm size and more diversifi ed em- the World Bank Institute in Dakar (June 2003 and June ployment structures. In addition, the evidence showed that 2004); Santiago, Chile (January 2004); and Rio de Janeiro urban women specialized more than rural women. (December 2004).

98 Responsibility: Infrastructure Network, Offi ce of the Vice Pres- ment was relatively easy to show. But the pricing mechanism ident—Antonio Estache ([email protected]). With was diverse and diffi cult to quantify. Antonio Alvarez, University of Oviedo, Spain; Aliou Fall, The project collected price structure data from 45 fi xed- Government of Senegal; Andres Gomez-Lobo, University of line and mobile telephone operators in 18 African countries. Chile; Marianela Gonzalez and Lourdes Trujillo, University Based on the data, the study estimated a discrete consumer of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain; Eugene Kouassi, Uni- choice demand function. The estimated model indicated versity of Cocody, Côte d’Ivoire; Ronaldo Magalhaes, Na- that termination-based discriminatory pricing could facilitate tional Land Transport Regulatory Agency, Brazil; Augustin network expansion. It also showed that the implied price- Mpapa Mbangala and Sergio Perelman, University of Liège; cost margins were signifi cantly high. Thus, price liberaliza- Martín Rossi and Christian Ruzzier, Centro de Estudios Eco- tion could be conducive to development of the telecommu- nomicos de la Regulación, Argentina; and Ronaldo Seroa da nications network led by the private sector. Motta, Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada and Fed- Responsibility: Social Development Network, Finance Eco- eral University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. nomics and Urban Department—Atsushi Iimi (aiimi@ Project Code: P083320. worldbank. org). Completion date: June 2005. Project Code: P104115. Completion date: March 2007. Publication Estache, Antonio, Sergio Perelman, and Lourdes Trujillo. 2007. Publication “Measuring Quantity-Quality Tradeoffs in Regulation: The Iimi, Atsushi. 2007. “Price Structure and Network Externalities Brazilian Freight Railways Case.” Annals of Public and Coop- in the Telecommunications Industry: Evidence from Sub- erative Economics 78(1): 1–20. Saharan Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper 4200. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Price Structure and Network Externalities in the Telecommunications Industry: Evidence from Sub- Assessing the Impact of Roads: An Instrumental Saharan Africa Variable Approach

Many developing countries have experienced signifi cant de- The objective of this project is to assess the impact of a large velopments in their telecommunications network. Africa is infrastructure project (highway construction) on land use, de- no exception to this. This research project examined what forestation, agricultural activities, trade, and ultimately pov- factor facilitates most network expansion. In theory, the tele- erty. The question at the center of this research activity is the communications sector has two sector-specifi c characteristics: causal impact of infrastructure development. network externalities and discriminatory pricing. The project The methodology is innovative. Few studies have con- collected new operator-level price information to examine vincingly addressed the endogenous placement of roads how African countries could accelerate telecommunications when looking at infrastructure impacts. network development through pricing instruments, particu- The data come from two sources. The fi rst is the several larly discriminatory pricing. waves of household surveys undertaken in Vietnam (2002, With no available data on the detailed price structure of indi- 2004, and 2006). Second, the analysis will match these data vidual telephone operators, how often do African telephone with data on roads (currently under compilation), and data operators rely on peak and off-peak prices and termination- on war bombings in Vietnam, which will be used to construct based price discrimination? What are the strategic fee sched- the instrumental variable. ules, such as tie-in arrangements? This study investigated The project fi ndings will likely show that the estimate of whether and how termination-based discriminatory pricing the causal impact of roads is important on several dimensions, could facilitate network expansion. such as migration, trade, the environment, and poverty. The data were collected focusing on the price structure, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team unlike the traditional data, which include only average tar- Quy-Toan Do ([email protected]). With Axel Pustan. iffs, such as the cost of making a local call for three minutes. Project Code: P099168. There was no empirical work that related the degree of pric- Completion date: June 2008. ing differentiation to network expansion. The positive relationship between the average price and network develop-

99 Competition and Corruption in Public Procurement: The Livestock Industry and Infrastructure Development Evidence from Infrastructure Projects How to improve the productivity and external competitive- Public procurement aims to deliver public goods and services ness of the agriculture sector, for instance, the livestock in- at the lowest cost with the appropriate level of quality. The dustry, is still a diffi cult challenge for developing countries, authorities design procurement procedures for selecting an where agricultural growth is essential for stimulating overall effi cient private agent to which a public good or service is growth. This research project studied the linkages among contracted out. The direct contribution of this research proj- agricultural growth, infrastructure development, and insti- ect will be to provide evidence for understanding how public tutional arrangements. The project focused on Sub-Saharan procurement procedures operate and which mechanisms are Africa because the region continues to be relatively heavily most effective in encouraging competition, reducing corrup- dependent on the agricultural sector. What types of infra- tion, and improving effi ciency and quality. The analysis will structure would be most useful for increasing agricultural estimate the optimal unit prices of infrastructure, controlling production? Which farm products would be the most impor- for heterogeneity, to provide operational guidance on the ref- tant for stimulating overall growth and reducing poverty? erence price for a particular type of project. The possible answers to these questions are likely to vary Following the auction literature, the research will address across commodities and across countries. the following specifi c issues: (i) optimal procurement costs of It is expected that aggregate agricultural growth would be infrastructure; (ii) ex ante effi ciency at auctions and ex post positively related to infrastructure development. However, renegotiations; (iii) effective procurement design for main- the empirical linkage between agricultural growth and infra- taining the quality of the project; and (iv) local participation structure appears weak. In the existing literature, agricultural and international technology transfer. outputs are aggregated. However, this might be the wrong Public procurement has attracted increasing attention in approach for analyzing the effects of infrastructure on farm recent years, because enhancing public fi nancial manage- productivity. It is unlikely that different commodities would ment helps to maximize economic performance. In fact, cor- benefi t identically from a particular type of infrastructure. ruption in public procurement is one of the important chal- The project analyzed a commodity-specifi c demand and lenges confronting developing countries. However, there supply system, relating product market outcomes to agricul- has been little attempt to apply auction theory to aid-related ture-related infrastructure for several commodities, including public procurement. livestock, coffee, cocoa, and dairy products. These products Unlike the traditional approaches in this fi eld – the prin- are very important in Africa and differentiated at various cipal-agent model and basic incomplete contract theory – the levels. The data were from Eurostat, FAOSTAT, World In- project will adopt auction theory, which has been extensively tegrated Trade Solution (WITS), World Development Indi- developed in recent years. Auction theory provides various cators, International Telecommunication Union (ITU), and principles and implications on how to manage effectiveness International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Statistics. and effi ciency in public procurement auctions. The study The fi ndings showed that various types of infrastructure covers mainly electricity generation and distribution, roads, affected agricultural growth differently depending on the and water treatment and distribution. Procurement data will commodity. For instance, the general transport network and be collected from the World Bank’s Structural Adjustment irrigation facilities were essential for promoting coffee and Program and other donors including the Japan Bank for In- cocoa production. By contrast, rural water supply services ternational Cooperation, and possibly others. were more important for the dairy industry. The empirical fi ndings are intended to be interpreted at Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department— the operational level. The fi ndings should provide lessons on Atsushi Iimi ([email protected]). improving auction effi ciency and preventing potential cor- Project Code: P0106376. ruption in World Bank projects. Completion date: July 2007. Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department— Atsushi Iimi ([email protected]), and Social Develop- Publications ment Network Vice Presidency—Antonio Estache. Iimi, Atsushi. 2007. “Infrastructure and Trade Preferences for Project Code: P0105008. the Livestock Sector: Empirical Evidence from the Beef Completion date: March 2008. Industry in Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper 4201. World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C.

100 Iimi, Atsushi. 2007. “What Is Missing between Agricultural The Impact of Rural Roads on Poverty: The Case of Growth and Infrastructure Development? Cases of Coffee Bangladesh and Dairy in Africa.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. Roads have both a direct and an indirect effect on welfare, Information Technology and Development as they boost agricultural growth and investment, household food security, and investment in human capital. In addition, This research project studied policies and programs that pro- they can improve access to markets for rural products and mote access to information and communications technology services and reduce transaction costs. Yet little is known (ICT) in developing countries. The research addressed two about the quantifi able benefi ts of roads, mainly because of critical questions. First, how and to what extent have policy methodological constraints and data limitations. reforms in the ICT sector promoted private sector provision This study calculated the economic and social returns of of ICT services to the poor? Second, what have been the re- roads and their effect on poverty in Bangladesh using house- sults of direct public interventions to promote access to ICT hold and community data from a rural road project that al- services for the poor? lowed identifi cation of control and treatment groups. The The World Bank’s senior management has identifi ed nar- data came from two panel surveys conducted by the Bangla- rowing the ICT divide as a critical focus for action during desh Institute of Development Studies as part of the gov- the coming decade. Several projects have extended ICT to ernment’s efforts to analyze and quantify the short and long- rural communities through public access tele-centers, for term effects of improvements in rural roads. The study used example in Costa Rica, Egypt, and South Africa. National panel econometric techniques to resolve any household or governments and other international organizations have also community-level endogeneity. begun rural tele-center projects. Some claim that ICT will The fi ndings suggested that rural road investments re- drastically improve the lot of the rural poor; others argue that duced poverty signifi cantly through higher agricultural pro- a change in one input price will not have a signifi cant im- duction, higher wages, lower input and transportation costs, pact or, perversely, that it may encourage more rapid rural- and higher output prices. Rural roads also led to higher girls’ urban migration. The debate is propelled by a mass of pre- and boys’ schooling. Road investments were pro-poor, mean- conceived notions that overwhelm the trickle of anecdotal ing the gains were proportionately higher for the poor than evidence. Without systematic information, it is impossible to for the non-poor. strengthen the policy dialogue with better estimates of im- Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and pacts, benefi ts, and costs. Economic Management Division—Shahidur Khandker This research project investigated the spread and effects ([email protected]). of mobile telephony in Sub-Saharan Africa and Bangladesh. Project Code: P085643. The analysis employed cutting-edge spatial econometric es- Completion date: September 2005. timation techniques as opposed to anecdotal evidence and descriptions. The analysis also employed Probit with correc- Publication tion for spatial autocorrelation. Khandker, Shahidur R., Zaid Bakht, and Gayatri B. Koolwal. The results are expected to contribute valuable insights to 2006. “Poverty Impacts of Rural Roads: Evidence from Ban- the ongoing debate about the effects of policy reform on ICT gladesh.” Policy Research Working Paper 3875. World Bank, use and the welfare of rural households. Washington, D.C. The Africa regional vice presidency of the World Bank is preparing a fl agship report on ICT in Sub-Saharan Africa, and Impact Evaluation of a Rural Road Rehabilitation Project has expressed keen interest in the fi ndings of this research. in Vietnam Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- ral and Urban Development Team—David Wheeler (former Roads are often seen as key to raising living standards in poor World Bank staff), Susmita Dasgupta (sdasgupta@worldbank. rural areas. Yet despite much anecdotal evidence, there is little org), and Piet Buys. With Craig Meisner, Mainul Huq, and hard evidence on the size and nature of their benefi ts. This Kiran Pandey. study assessed the impact of rural roads on living standards Project Code: P070367. in Vietnam—where the World Bank fi nanced and helped im- Completion date: June 2007. plement a large-scale rural road rehabilitation project. The analysis was based on panel data—a baseline survey

101 of a random sample of 100 project communes and 100 non- Impact Evaluation of Rural Infrastructure Programs project communes in 1997, followed by subsequent rounds of data collection in 1999, 2001, and 2003. In each sampled The objective of this research project is to evaluate the de- commune, a questionnaire was also administered to 15 ran- velopment impact of rural infrastructure projects (roads and domly sampled households. Because the impact of a road electrifi cation). The analysis will focus on poverty/consump- project varies with the size of the change resulting from the tion impacts, human development outcomes (school atten- project and the method of project implementation, a proj- dance) and intermediate outcomes (travel time or access ect-level database for each of the project areas surveyed was to markets). also constructed. There is a general dearth of evidence on these questions The study investigated the extent to which project fund- that addresses the complex issues of causal attribution. This ing was used as intended, relying on impact evaluation project is part of a broader effort to build such evidence in a methods and the local level data. The analysis estimated the range of countries/projects. impact of the project on the kilometers of roads actually reha- Although in some cases (such as Afghanistan) it is possible bilitated and built. It tested whether the evidence supported to use experimental methods, in most cases the analysis uses the standard economic argument that there would be little non-experimental approaches (including propensity score or no impact on rural roads rehabilitated, given fungibility. matching and double-differences). Household surveys are Although impacts on rehabilitated road kilometers were less the main source of data. than intended, more roads were built in project areas. Work this fi scal year was preparatory and there are no re- The results suggested that there was fungibility with- sults to report at this time. in the sector, but that aid largely stuck to that sector. The The lack of solid evidence of the impact of rural roads project assessed impacts of the rural road improvements on and electrifi cation projects is a major handicap from an opera- market and institutional development at the commune level. tional point of view. This research project is part of a broader Double difference and matching methods were used to ad- effort to generate such evidence. dress sources of selection bias in identifying impacts. Overall, Responsibility: Development Economics, Offi ce of the Vice average impacts were found to be small. President—Ariel Fiszbein (Afi [email protected]), Sha- The project results were presented at the Northeast Uni- hidur Khandker, Douglas Barnes, John Hine, Niall Keleher, versities Development Consortium Conference in Montreal and Pedro Olinto. With Sebastian Galiani, Washington Uni- (October 2004); in a Workshop at the University of Namur, versity and Universidad de San Andres; Hussain Samad; and Belgium (Nov 2006); and in various sessions on impact evalu- Ruben Enikolopow, Andrew Beath, and Sandra Maria Se- ation and rural roads at the World Bank. queira, Harvard University. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services Project Code: P104569. Team—Dominique van de Walle (dvandewalle@worldbank. Completion date: December 2010. org). With Ren Mu, Dorothyjean Cratty, and Vu Tuan Anh, Economics Institute, Hanoi. The Canadian International De- Publication velopment Agency (CIDA) Consultants Trust Fund and the Galiani, Sebastian. 2007. “Notes for Impact Evaluation of the U.K. Department for International Development (DFID) Construction and Rehabilitation of Rural Roads.” World Poverty Trust Fund contributed funding for the research. Bank, Washington, D.C. Project Code: PO59436. Completion date: December 2007. Identiﬁ cation and Analysis of Urban Disaster Risk

Publications This research project on urban disaster risk assessment will van de Walle, Dominique, and Ren Mu. 2007a. “Fungibil- entail three interrelated components. The fi rst is a macro- ity and the Flypaper Effect of Project Aid: Micro-evi- level global assessment of urban disaster risk. The second dence for Vietnam.” Policy Research Working Paper 4133. is an assessment of commonly available urban household World Bank, Washington, D.C.; Journal of Development survey data in terms of their utility for disaster risk assess- Economics (forthcoming). ments. And the third is an assessment of the utility of high- ———. 2007b. “Rural Roads and Poor Area Development in resolution remote sensing data and related information for Vietnam.” Development Research Group, World Bank, rapid and cost effective urban risk assessments. Washington, D.C. Mimeo. The project seeks to contribute to priority setting in geo-

102 graphic targeting and sequencing of interventions aimed capita income, reached a peak, and then declined. This was at reducing urban disaster risks, and providing a methodol- because at low income levels the rate of increase in motor ogy for urban sector task managers to improve city-specifi c vehicles outpaced the decline in fatalities per motor vehicle. risk assessments. At higher income levels, the reverse occurred. The income At a global level, the project extends previous work on level at which per capita traffi c fatalities peaked was approxi- identifi cation of global natural hazards more generally to the mately 8,600 in 1985 international dollars. This was within urban level. The case study work aims to develop new tools the range of income at which other externalities, such as air to generate information from high resolution satellite data and water pollution, have been found to peak. that can feed directly into urban disaster risk policies. A re- Projections of future traffi c fatalities suggested that the lated research question is how remotely sensed data can be global road death toll would grow by approximately 66 per- augmented by data from national household surveys that can cent between 2000 and 2020. The analysis also predicted that then be utilized to create indicators of vulnerability to natu- the fatality rate would increase to approximately 2 per 10,000 ral hazards. persons in developing countries by 2020, and decrease to less The global study relies on geographically referenced in- than 1 per 10,000 in high-income countries. The results sug- formation on risk, exposure, and vulnerability. The infor- gest that the downward-sloping portion of the curve relating mation is analyzed using a risk model initially developed traffi c fatalities per capita to per capita income is due primar- for the Global Hotspots study. The case studies will rely on ily to improved pedestrian safety. Declines in occupant fatali- advanced techniques for the automatic extraction of infra- ties are explained primarily by reductions in alcohol abuse, structure and other physical features from high resolution improved medical services, and fewer young drivers. remotely sensed images. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural and Urban The project is at an early stage, so no concrete results have Team—Maureen L. Cropper ([email protected]). been compiled. The project hopes to improve targeting of With Elizabeth Kopits. risk reduction strategies, quantifi cation of resource require- Project Code: P053608. ments and benefi ciary estimates, and public disclosure of risk Completion date: June 2006. information and policy actions. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Publications Development and Urban Development Team—Uwe De- Kopits, Elizabeth, and Maureen Cropper. 2005a. “Traffic Fatali- ichmann ([email protected]) and Piet Buys. ties and Economic Growth.” Accident Analysis and Preven- With Christopher Small, Columbia University, and Henrike tion 37(1): 169-78. Brecht, Louisiana State University. ———. 2005b. “Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Indus- Project Code: P104425. trialized Countries? Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Completion date: June2009. Occupants.” Policy Research Working Paper 3678. World Bank, Washington, D.C.; and Journal of Transport Economics Motorization and Policy (forthcoming).

Over the past 25 years, the death rate due to traffi c fatali- Urban Transport and the Welfare of the Poor ties has fallen in most high-income countries, but has risen in developing countries. This is the result of the impact of This research project contributed to the design of transport economic development on the motorization rate (vehicles/ policies that will benefi t the poor in the long as well as the population) and on the fatality rate per vehicle. To better short run. It administered a household survey to a random understand these impacts requires studying how rapidly the sample of 5,000 households in Mumbai to elicit information motorization rate increases as countries grow and how rapidly on household location, housing and neighborhood attributes, fatalities per vehicle decline. household consumption, the employment and other activity This research project examined the impact of income patterns of household members, and their travel behavior. growth on the death rate due to traffi c fatalities, as well as The analysis used these data to describe patterns of travel on fatalities per motor vehicle and the motorization rate and residential location by income group, to estimate models (vehicles/population) using panel data from 1963-99 for 88 of vehicle ownership and mode choice for a variety of types countries. The relationship between the motor vehicle fa- of trips, and to estimate models of commuting behavior and tality rate and per capita income at fi rst increased with per residential location choice.

103 A striking fi nding was the extent to which all households, transportation system. Rapid growth of the private vehicle but especially poor ones, relied on walking. Overall, 44 per- fl eet, combined with reliance on para-transit (tro-tros and cent of commuters in Mumbai walked to work. Among the taxis) has resulted in extreme traffi c congestion throughout poor the share was 63 percent. And more people relied on the city, and poor quality transit service. To remedy the situ- walking for non-work than for work trips. People who trav- ation, the government of Accra intends to implement a Bus eled on foot would not benefi t directly from improvements Rapid Transit system on major radial and circumferential in public transit but would benefi t from the construction of routes. The system is still in the planning stages; however, it footpaths and roads. is likely that a pilot corridor will become operational in 2010. The project found that public transit was key to mobil- The purpose of this study was to collect baseline data that ity for the poor and especially for the middle class, suggest- would evaluate the impact of the Bus Rapid Transit system. ing that improvements in public transit could have substan- A household survey of travel behavior was conducted in tial value. Rail was the main mode of commuting to work December 2006 by the Ghana Statistical Service. The goal for 23 percent of commuters, and bus the main mode for of the survey was to better understand the travel patterns of 16 percent. people living in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area and the The research project produced important information role that transport plays in their lives. The survey gathered about travel patterns in Mumbai, about the price and income data on earnings, housing costs, where people live and work, elasticities of demand for transport services, and about the and how they travel. It also obtained information on vehicle access of the poor to jobs, schools, and health care facilities. ownership, the cost and accessibility of various forms of trans- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural and Urban port, and impressions of the quality of transport services. Team—Maureen L. Cropper ([email protected]), A key objective of the survey was to see how travel patterns Somik V. Lall, Rakhi Basu, and Judy Baker. With the Moni- and the accessibility and quality of transport vary spatially. To toring and Research Systems Private Limited, Mumbai; Cal- achieve this objective, the project sampled 3,000 households 2Cal, Calcutta; and Akie Takeuchi, University of Maryland. in proportion to population throughout the Greater Accra Project Code: P081190. Metropolitan Area. The geographic location of each house- Completion date: June 2005. hold was recorded, and the work locations of workers in each household were coded in terms of the 140 transportation Publications analysis zones recently established for Accra. The household Baker, Judy, Rakhi Basu, Antonio Bento, Maureen L. Cropper, questionnaire was supplemented by travel diaries. Somik V. Lall, and Akie Takeuchi. 2005. “The Impact of Pol- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural and Urban icies to Control Motor Vehicle Use in Mumbai.” Paper pre- Team—Maureen L. Cropper ([email protected]). sented at the Allied Social Sciences Association meetings, With Ajay Kumar; Jeff Smith, University of Michigan; Erica Philadelphia, January 8. Field, Harvard University; and Antoine Lema. Baker, Judy, Rakhi Basu, Maureen L. Cropper, Somik V. Lall, and Project Code: P099361. Akie Takeuchi. 2004. “Urban Poverty and Transport: The Completion date: June 2006. Case of Mumbai.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. Takeuchi, Akie, Maureen Cropper and Antonio Bento. 2006a. Equity and Efﬁ ciency in Local Government Revenue “The Impact of Policies to Control Motor Vehicle Emissions Generation in Mumbai, India.” Policy Research Working Paper 4059. World Bank, Washington, D.C.; and Journal of Regional Sci- Using data from three Indian cities, this research project in- ence 47(1): 27-46 (2007). vestigated two aspects of local urban investment fi nancing ———. 2006b. “The Welfare Effects of Slum Improvement Pro- through property taxes. First, on the revenue side, it aimed grams: The Case of Mumbai,” Policy Research Working Pa- to further understanding of the trade-offs between different per 3852. World Bank, Washington, D.C. types of property tax systems, with the objective of maximizing tax receipts without undue distortions or unfair assess- The Impact of Bus Rapid Transit in Accra, Ghana ments. However, a tax on real estate is politically acceptable only if there is a close link between charges and the services Accra, the capital of Ghana, is poised to become the gateway that are provided in return. For example, most Indian cities to West Africa. Achieving this objective, however, will require have limited differentiation in effective property tax rates, improvements in traffi c management and in the city’s public which leads to considerable inequity in distribution.

104 Second, on the expenditure side, the research studied how The central message of the study was clear: Developing public services and amenities were capitalized in the market country cities should be making realistic plans for urban ex- values of private property. In other words, did citizens gener- pansion, designating adequate areas for accommodating the ally get what they paid for, or were there signifi cant inequi- projected expansion, investing wisely in basic trunk infra- ties in the tax burden vis-à-vis the services received? structure to serve this expansion, and protecting sensitive As more and more cities explore new or additional revenue land from incursion by new urban development. sources (rather than relying largely on transfers from central Responsibility: Transport and Urban Development Depart- government), policy-makers need a better understanding of ment—Robert F. Buckley ([email protected]). the effi ciency and fairness of tax assessments such as those Project Code: P088147. on property. Completion date: June 2005. This study extended previous work on information based urban management. The analysis modeled hedonic hous- Publication ing prices using an explicit spatial econometric framework. Shlomo, Angel, Stephen C. Sheppard, and Daniel L. Civco, with The analysis relied mostly on existing urban household and Robert Buckley, Anna Chabaeva, Lucy Gitlin, Alison Kra- contextual data collected under a previous research program. ley, Jason Parent, and Micah Perlin. 2005. “The Dynamics of Methods included spatial exploratory data analysis and spa- Global Urban Expansion.” World Bank, Transport and Urban tial econometric modeling. Development Department, Washington, D.C. http://www. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- williams.edu/Economics/UrbanGrowth/DataEntry.htm. ral and Urban Development Team—Uwe Deichmann (UDe- [email protected]); and Somik Lall. With Dynamics of Urban Poverty – A Case Study of Rio de Luc Anselin, University of Illinois; and Nancy Lozano, University of Illinois. Janeiro, Brazil Project Code: P100178. Completion date: September 2007. Since 1969 Brazil has undergone major transformations – from dictatorship to democracy; from economic growth to The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion stagfl ation, stabilization and structural adjustment; and from an urban policy of slum removal to one of on-site upgrading This research project examined the dynamics of global urban aimed at social inclusion. Yet the cumulative effect of macro- expansion. The project defi ned a new universe of 3,943 cities level growth, poverty programs with massive infrastructure with population in excess of 100,000, and drew a stratifi ed investments, and community efforts has not resulted in the global sample of 120 cities from this universe. elimination or signifi cant reduction of urban poverty. The study obtained and analyzed population data and This research project focused on the favelas, public hous- satellite images for two time periods and calculated several ing projects, and low-income neighborhoods of Rio de Janei- measures of urban extent and expansion. The project pro- ro, Brazil. The project was conducted in three phases. First, it duced a report analyzing the data for 90 of the cities. The conducted an Exploratory Research and Feasibility Study to report presents weighted averages of the built-up area and verify the possibility of relocating the families. Second, it re- the average density, as well as compactness and contiguity interviewed the original interviewees (from 1969) and their measures—and their change over time—for nine regions, children and grandchildren using qualitative and quantitative four income groups, and four city-size groups covering the methods (2000-2003). And third, it interviewed new random entire globe. and leadership samples in the original communities to test The project found that densities in developing-country bias and get a new snapshot for comparison (2003-2004). cities were some three times higher than densities in cities The policy fi ndings suggested that investment in physi- in industrialized countries, and densities in all regions were cal infrastructure upgrading was most effective when com- decreasing over time. bined with investment in social infrastructure and human The fi ndings showed that if average densities were to capital; on-site upgrading always lagged behind demand un- continue to decline at the annual rate of 1.7 percent—as less anticipatory solutions were put in place in advance of they have during the past decade—the built-up area of de- in-migration; proximity to the city center was important for veloping-country cities would increase from 200,000 km2 in long-term outcomes among the urban poor; income returns 2000 to more than 600,000 km2 by 2030, while population to education were lower for people living in favelas; youth would double. needed alternatives to drug traffi c via educational enhance-

105 ment programs; job creation was essential and Rio needed Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department- a strategic plan focusing on the comparative advantages of María Emilia Freire ([email protected]). With Tim each sub area of the city; violence impeded economic and Campbell, Janice E. Perlman, the Mega-Cities Project, Inc.; social development; stigma against favelados was a barrier Ignacio Cano, Sociology Department, UERJ; Lia M. Rocha, to livelihoods, trumping even racial prejudice; there was a IUPERJ; and Emanuelle Araujo, Sarah Anthony, and Nunes belief-behavior disconnect with high democratic ideals and de Conceicao. low political participation; clientelism and chronyism added Project Code: P091205. to feelings of disenfranchisement; few escaped poverty but Completion date: September 2005. the residents of older, consolidated favelas; and geographical mobility out of the favelas correlated positively with socio- Publications economic mobility. Font, Mauricio, and Desmond Arias, eds. 2005. “The Intergen- Project fi ndings were presented at several meetings at erational Persistence of Poverty: Life Trajectories in Rio’s the World Bank and the World Bank Institute, Washington, Favelas, 1968 – 2002.” In Social Transformation in Brazil. D.C.; Social Development Week, Inter-American Develop- New York, NY: The Bildner Center, CUNY. ment Bank, Washington, D.C. (October 2003 and October Freire, María Emilia. 2004. “Citizen Participation in City 2005); Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Planning and Development: An Overview and Argu- Studies, Washington, D.C. (October 2004 and October 2005); ment.” ICFAI Journal of Infrastructure III(2, September). the World Bank, Washington, D.C, Brasilia, and Bahia (June Hyderabad, India. 2005); UNFPA, Columbia University’s Earth Institute, and ———. 2005. “Music and Movies from Rio de Janeiro Tell the the Mega-Cities Project (June 2005); CUNY Graduate Cen- Story: Urban Poverty Then and Now.” Metro (May). ter, New York (June 2005); UN Habitat NGO Forum, New Hanley, Lisa, Blair Ruble, and Joseph Tulchin, eds. 2005. “The York (May 2005); Centro de Estudos, Procuradodria, Prefeit- Myth of Marginality Revisited: The Case of Favelas in Rio ura Rio de Janeiro (March 2005); Columbia University, New de Janeiro, 1969-2003.” In Becoming Global and the New Pover- York, NY (January 2005); DIMSUD International Confer- ty of Cities. Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International ence, Monte Verita, Ascona, Switzerland (October-November Center for Scholars. 2004); Institute for Work and Society, Rio de Janeiro (July Jacobs, Brian, ed. 2005. “Violence as a Major Source of Vulnera- 2002 and August 2004); Department of Urbanism and Envi- bility in Rio de Janeiro’s Favelas.” Journal of Contingencies and ronment, City Government of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro Crisis Management (winter). Staffordshire University, UK. (July 2004); IBASE, Favela e Cidade: Nao a Remocao, Rio Keiner, M., W. A. Schmid, M. Koll-Schretzenmayr, eds. 2004. de Janeiro (July 2004); SUNY Stoney Brook, Manhattan, NY “Chronic Poverty in Rio de Janeiro: What Has Changed (April 2004); Millennium Development Task Force on Im- in 30 Years.” In Managing Urban Futures - Sustainability proving the Lives of Slum Dwellers, United Nations, New and Urban Growth in Developing Countries. Hamshire, UK: York, NY (April 2004); University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Ashgate Publishers. MA (February 2004); Mead Lecture, University of Con- Massey, Douglas, M. Sanchez, and J. Behrman, eds. 2005. “Struc- necticut, Mead Lecture, Storrs, CT (October 2003); Wood- tural Adjustment and the Urban Poor - The Case of Mar- row Wilson Center for International Scholars, Washington, ginality from Myth from Reality in the Favelas of Rio de D.C. (September 2003); Joint DPU-ODI-DFID-World Bank Janeiro 1969-2002.” In Chronicle of a Myth Foretold: The Wash- Workshop, London (May 2003); Institute for Development ington Consensus in Latin America. University Park, PA: Penn Policy and Management, University of Manchester, Man- State Press. chester, England (April 2003); Latin American Studies As- Roy, Ananya, and Nezar Al Sayyad, eds. 2004. “Marginality: From sociation, Dallas, TX (March 2003); University of California Myth to Reality in the Favelas in Rio de Janeiro 1969-2002.” Berkeley-DCRP/IURD (November 2002); Brazil Project at In Urban Informality in an Era of Liberalization: A Transna- Columbia University, New York, NY (November 2002); Mel- tional Perspective. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books. lon Foundation Series, University of Pennsylvania, Phila- Ward, Peter, ed. 2004. “From the Marginality of the 1960s to the delphia, PA (November 2002); Bildner Center Conference ‘New Poverty’ of Today: A LARR Research Forum.” Latin on New Approaches to Social Reform, New York, NY (April American Research Review 39(1). 2002); Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Rio de Janeiro (March 2002); and American Sociological Association, Anaheim, CA (August 2001).

106 International Migration and Development

International Migration: Implication for Growth and Dean Yang, Claudia Martinez, and Hwa Jung Choi, Univer- Welfare sity of Michigan; Dominique Gross, University of Geneva; Frederic Docquier, University of Lille 2; J. Edward Taylor, International migration has enormous implications for University of California at Davis; David McKenzie, Stanford growth and welfare in both origin and destination countries. University; and Riccardo Faini, Ministry of Economy, Italy. Although some research exists on the impact of migration in Project Code: P088066. receiving countries (such as on labor markets), little empirical Completion date: June 2007. research has been done on the impact in sending countries. This research project sought to fi ll that gap by identifying Publications migration policies, regulations, and institutional reforms by Adams, Richard H., Jr. 2004. “Remittances and Poverty in Gua- industrial and developing countries that would lead to better temala.” Policy Research Working Paper 3418. World Bank, development outcomes. Washington, D.C. Analyses of the development impact of remittances and Docquier, Frederic, Olivier Lohest, and Abdeslam Marfouk. the determinants of migration drew on household-level data 2005. “The World Distribution of the Brain Drain.” World already available or being developed through surveys under Bank, Washington, D.C. the project. The analysis used household data to empirically Holzmann, Robert, and Rainer Münz. 2004. “Challenges and assess the effects of remittances on poverty and inequality Opportunities of International Migration for the EU, Its in sending countries as well as their effects on spending on Member States, Neighboring Countries, and Regions: A Pol- health, housing, education, and entrepreneurship. icy Note.” Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm. The project analyzed fi nancial sector development on the Javorcik, Beata S., Çaglar Özden, and Mariana Spatareanu. 2004. role of host country characteristics (such as growth, poverty, “Substitutes or Complements? Linkages between Migra- GDP per capita, education levels, migration, and crisis epi- tion and FDI.” World Bank, Development Research Group, sodes) and world economic conditions in explaining remit- Washington, D.C. tance fl ows, using balance of payments data on remittance Mattoo, Aaditya, C. Neagu, and Çaglar Özden. 2004. “Brain fl ows to more than 100 countries in 1980–2002. The project Waste? Educated Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Market.” also studied whether remittances intermediated by the for- World Bank, Washington, D.C. mal fi nancial sector in the host countries helped to develop Mora, Jorge, and J. Edward Taylor. 2005. “Remittances, Inequal- this sector by increasing aggregate deposits or the credit in- ity, and Poverty: Evidence from Rural Mexico.” World Bank, termediated by the local banking sector. Washington, D.C. Research on social protection included an overview of bi- Schiff, Maurice. 2004. “When Migrants Overstay Their Legal lateral social security agreements and their implementation, Welcome.” World Bank, Development Research Group, and assessed the situation of migrant workers in the absence Washington, D.C. of such agreements. The project studied gaps in the social Yang, Dean. 2004. “International Migration, Human Capital, and protection of migrant workers originating in a lack of portabil- Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Ex- ity of social security benefi ts, and proposed new approaches change Rate Shocks.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. to enhance portability. Country case studies in Mexico, Mo- rocco, the Philippines, and Turkey highlighted the workings Regional Integration and Migration with Agglomeration and practicability of the administrative processes for implementing portability. This research project studied the impact of the medical brain Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— drain on health and the overall economy of the host country in Maurice Schiff ([email protected]), Çaglar Özden, Vlad the context of temporary movement of service providers, the Manole, and Richard H. Adams Jr., Offi ce of the Director—L. impact of migration on employment and wages, and the link Alan Winters, and Finance Team—Maria Soledad Martinez between trade in fi nancial services, and capital movements. Peria; and Development Economics, Offi ce of the Senior Past research examined the impact on health care services Vice President and Chief Economist—Coralie Gevers. With but not the added impact on the effective supply of labor

107 (because of changes in health) and its economic implications. Further, the benefi ts to the countries of origin are especially This project provided a different approach to help resolve large in the case of migration of low-skilled workers. the issue as to whether migration lowers natives’ wages. This The project’s study of South-South migration and remit- issue had not been examined under the assumption of scale tances found that nearly half of the migrants from developing economies and economic externalities, plausible assumption countries reside in other developing countries. One of the for developed partners of regional integration agreements. fi ndings was that the costs of South-South remittances are The analysis was based on trade theory and simulations us- even higher than the costs of North-South remittances. ing a computable general equilibrium model. The project will develop a comprehensive bilateral data- There were four main project fi ndings. First, actual gains base of migrant stocks and estimates of bilateral remittance from entry of health service providers were larger than pre- fl ows for 212 countries. (The data sets on bilateral migration viously estimated. Second, migrants did not reduce native stocks and bilateral remittance fl ows worldwide are posted wages or raise unemployment. Third, under scale economies at www.worldbank.org/prospects/migrationandremittances). and economic externalities, migration and capital movements The project includes studies of leveraging remittances for im- were complements under plausible assumptions, potentially proving capital market access; mobilizing Diaspora resources exacerbating core-periphery tendencies in regional integra- for development; and analyzing migration, remittances, and tion agreements. This was a crucial issue for the less devel- development in Africa. The project has developed databases oped members of such agreements. Furthermore, migration on remittance infl ows and outfl ows in 1970-2006, South- benefi ted native labor rather than the opposite. And fourth, South migration and remittances fl ows for 212 countries, and openness of trade in fi nancial services could benefi t from in- the Web-based Migration and Remittances Factbook. creased in capital movements, implying that policymakers Project fi ndings have been presented at the UN High- should consider both simultaneously. Level Dialogue roundtable on South-South Migration, New Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— York (September 2006); PREM Week, World Bank, Washing- Maurice Schiff ([email protected]). With Joseph Fran- ton, D.C. (April 2006); the Second International Conference cois, Martine Rutten, and the Institute for International and on Remittances, London (November 2006); and the Migra- Development Economics. tion and Development Conference, World Bank, Washing- Project Code: P094422. ton, D.C. (May 2007). Completion date: June 2006. Responsibility: Development Prospects Group, Migration and Remittances Team—Dilip Ratha ([email protected]). Publication With Binod Khadria, Jawaharlal Nehru University; Suhas L. Rutten, Martine, and Geoffrey Reed. 2006. “The Economic Im- Ketkar, Vanderbilt University; Tasneem Siddiqui, University pact of Medical Migration.” Ministry of Finance, School of of Dhaka; and Sanket Mohapatra, William Shaw, and Zhimei Economics, University of Leverhulme. Xu, World Bank. Project Code: P088048. Remittances and Migration Completion date: Ongoing.

The World Bank’s Migration and Remittances Team’s work Publications program involves efforts to monitor and forecast remittance Khadria, Binod. 2007. “Dual and Multiple Citizenship in a Glo- and migration fl ows, analysis of the here-and-now topics in- balized World.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. volving migration and remittances, and provision of informa- Mohapatra, Sanket. “Remittances and Financial Access of the tion and policy advice. Poor.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. This ongoing research project has carried out several Ratha, Dilip. 2006. “Leveraging Remittances for Capital Market studies. The project has explored the gains and losses from Access.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. international migration and policies to improve the devel- ______. 2007a. “Leveraging Remittances for Development.” opmental impact of migration, with particular attention to re- Policy Brief. Program on Migrants, Migration and Develop- mittances. This study evaluated the costs and benefi ts of mi- ment. Migration Policy Institute. gration, through model-based simulations and a review of the ______. 2007b. “South-South Migration and Remittanc- economic literature. The fi ndings showed that international es.” Policy Research Working Paper 102. World Bank, migration generates signifi cant economic gains for migrants, Washington, D.C. their countries of origin, and their countries of destination. Ratha, Dilip, Prabal De, and Sanket Mohapatra. 2007. “Shad-

108 ow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Coun- Publication tries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4269. World Bank, Adams, R.H. Jr. 2007. “An Overview of Data Contained in the Washington, D.C. 2005/06 Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS 5) (Sub- Ratha, Dilip, and Suhas Ketkar. 2007. “Diaspora Bonds: Track sample) On Migration and Remittances.” World Bank, Wash- Record and Potential.” Policy Research Working Paper. ington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Ratha, Dilip, and William Shaw. 2005. “Global Economic Pros- Household Surveys of International Migration and pects 2006: Economic Implications of Remittances and Mi- Remittances in Pakistan gration.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Sidiqui, Tasneem, and Siobhán McPhee. 2007. “Role of Dual This research project collected original, household-level and Multiple Citizenship for Development.” World Bank, data on migration and remittances in Pakistan by inserting Washington, D.C. a module on migration and remittances into the nationally- representative household survey for 2001-02. The project Household Surveys on International Migration and analyzed the impact of migration and remittances on health Remittances in Ghana and education outcomes, how entrepreneurship and investment were affected by migration and returning migrants, and The objective of the project was to collect original, house- how international migration affected labor market activity hold-level data on migration and remittances in Ghana. The and child labor. project used the data to analyze the impact of internal and Econometric analysis showed that migration had a posi- international migration and remittances on poverty and in- tive impact on all measures of educational attainment. Chil- come inequality in Ghana. It also analyzed how internal and dren from migrant households were more likely to attend international migrant households spent and invested remit- school, stayed in school during the age range of peak dropout tance income, and how this contributed to overall economic rates, had higher completed grades, and progressed through development. And the project examined how the internal school at a signifi cantly better rate than children in non-mi- and international migration of workers from Ghana has af- grant households. fected wage rates and labor markets in that country. The results for health showed that young girls in migrant The project was conduced by inserting a module of 45 households were taller than girls of the same age in non- questions on migration and remittances into the nationally- migrant households. Boys had a better weight-for-age score representative 2005/06 Ghana Living Standards Survey. than girls in non-migrant households, but the differential The survey was conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service impact of migration more than compensated for this loss, in Accra. so that the score for girls was higher than that for boys in The data have not yet been analyzed because the project migrant households. only recently received the data on migration and remittances The study considered three types of capital investment from the 2005/06 Ghana Living Standards Survey. The data in rural Pakistan—establishment of a non-farm enterprise, are being cleaned and organized for the analysis. Access to purchase of major farm implements (tractors and tube- the data will be made available later. wells), and purchase of agricultural land—and distinguished This was one of the fi rst completed national representa- between ongoing and completed migration episodes. The tive household surveys including comprehensive information results showed that migration had a signifi cant negative im- on remittances and migration in Africa. The data should con- pact on household non-farm business investment that was tribute to the understanding of the nexus between migration entirely reversed once the migrant had returned. Thus, mi- and economic development and to enhanced policy-making grant households to which the migrant had returned were in this area. as likely to have a non-farm business as non-migrant house- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— holds. Moreover, migrant households were as likely to invest Maurice Schiff ([email protected]) and Çaglar Özden. in farm assets as non-migrant households, and return migra- With Richard Adams. tion had no impact on the result. Finally, migration also had a Project Codes: P096150 and P092160. large positive impact on land purchase. Completion date: December 2007. The project fi ndings were presented at the Global Forum for Migration and Development in Brussels, London, Cairo, and Paris.

109 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— and intercept surveys for collecting data on migrants when Maurice Schiff ([email protected]), Ghazala Mansuri, it is not feasible to conduct the more expensive census- and Çaglar Özden. With Pablo Acosta, Corporacion Andina based method. de Fomento. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Project Code: P096157. Maurice Schiff ([email protected]). With Yoko Niimi. Completion date: July 2006. Project Code: P097353. Completion date: July 2006. Publications Mansuri, G. 2006a. “Migration, School Attainment and Child Publication Labor in a Rural Economy.” Policy Research Working Paper McKenzie, D. J., and J. Mistiaen. 2007. “Surveying Migrant 3945. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Households: A Comparison of Census-Based, Snowball, and ———. 2006b. “Migration, Sex Bias, and Child Growth in Ru- Intercept Surveys.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. ral Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 3946. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Medical Brain Drain and Labor Markets ———. 2007a. “Does Work Migration Spur Investment in Ori- gin Communities? Entrepreneurship, Schooling, and Child This research project was the fi rst effort to collect a global Health in Rural Pakistan.” In C. Ozden and M. Schiff, eds. database on the international migration of physicians. The International Migration, Economic Development and Policy. project produced two studies. The fi rst was a descriptive pa- Washington, D.C.: World Bank. per of the main fi ndings of the data. The second analyzed the ———. 2007b. “Return Migration, Entrepreneurship, and Rural macro-economic data by developing a conceptual framework Development.” Development Research Group, World Bank, for modeling the interrelationships among HIV prevalence, Washington, D.C. migration of healthcare staff, and economic activity in developing countries. The analysis estimated a triangular system International Migration and Development – The case of equations using fi ve time observations for medical brain Study of the Brazil Nikkei Households drain rates, the number of AIDS deaths, life expectancy, and GDP growth rates, taking into account the interdependence This research project carried out research and analytical work between these variables. within the framework of the Research Program on Interna- The data revealed that average medical brain drain de- tional Migration and Development. In particular, it set out to creased with country size. The rate observed in small coun- improve household survey instruments. tries was seven times as large as the rate observed in large The Brazil Nikkei Household Survey was undertaken to countries. Low-income countries were much more affected answer two key questions. First, what were the key determi- by medical brain drain than middle and high-income ones. nants, constraints, and socio-economic and welfare impacts of And average medical brain drain was particularly severe in international migration by Japanese-Brazilians to, settlement the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and Sub-Saha- in, and return from Japan? And second, which survey sampling ran Africa. methodologies could be used to collect representative data The analysis revealed that higher HIV prevalence in- through household survey questionnaires for applied micro- creased the emigration of physicians. Although medical brain economic analysis of migration and remittance corridors? drain did not signifi cantly predict lower GDP growth rates, The project implemented three alternative sampling it was likely to affect life expectancy and hence economic methodologies to collect data from Japanese-Brazilian fami- growth in the long run. lies of potential migrants to Japan. Households were selected Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— randomly from a door-to-door listing using the Brazilian Cen- Maurice Schiff ([email protected]). With Frederic sus to select census blocks. A snowball survey used Nikkei Docquier, IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain, Depart- community groups to select the seeds. And an intercept sur- ment of Economics. vey was collected at Nikkei community gatherings, ethnic Project Code: P094424. grocery stores, sports clubs, and other locations where family Completion date: November 2006. members of migrants were likely to congregate. The project fi ndings should provide researchers and Publications policy-makers with useful guidance on the use of snowball Bhargava, A., and F. Docquier. 2006a. “Panel Data on Migra-

110 tion of Physicians.” http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/ Maurice Schiff ([email protected]) and Çaglar Özden. EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,,contentMD With Dominique Gross, Graduate Public Policy Program Si- K:21085107~pagePK:64214825~piPK:64214943~theSiteP mon Fraser University Harbour Centre. K:469382,00.html. Project Codes: P088066 and P094995. ______. 2006b. “HIV Prevalence, Migration of Healthcare Completion date: June 2005. Staff and Economic Activity in Africa.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publications ______. 2006c. “HIV Pandemic, Medical Brain Drain and Eco- Gross, Dominique M. 2006a. “Immigration Policy and Foreign nomic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.” World Bank, Population in Switzerland.” Policy Research Working Paper Washington, D.C. 3853. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ______. 2006b. “Immigration to Switzerland - The Case of the Immigration to Switzerland Former Republic of Yugoslavia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3880. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Many receiving countries have begun the process of modi- ______. Gross, Dominique M. 2007. “Immigration Incentives fying their migration policies. But there has been little em- and Policy in Switzerland.” In C. Ozden and M. Schiff, eds. pirical evidence on the consequences of different migration International Migration, Economic Development and Policy. policies. The purpose of this research project was to analyze Washington, D.C.: World Bank. the impact of different immigration policies on immigration in Switzerland. Migration, Poverty, and Income Strategies in Albania The analysis provided evidence that the overall dynamic of the Swiss migration system has led to an ever-increasing Sustainable economic growth, poverty reduction, and the share of newcomers not covered by the quotas. The outfl ow management of migration fl ows are among the most press- of migrants has not responded to economic incentives as the ing items on the policy agenda in Albania. Yet there is lit- government expected. Hence, at the beginning of the 21st tle systematic analysis of the income generating strategies century, the link between the instruments of immigration of Albanian households in the emerging market economy, policy and its goals had become weak and the level of foreign and how this relates to income dynamics, people’s mobility, population was at an all-time high. and poverty. The project also showed that the share of residents from The results of this research project showed that agricul- the former Republic of Yugoslavia in the total foreign popula- tural, migration, and human capital assets have had a differ- tion in Switzerland rose to almost 25 percent in 2000, to be- ential impact across livelihood choices, and that this impact come one of the largest foreign communities. This increase has varied by gender and age. Two areas of policy concern coincided with a new policy, which from 1995 gave priority derive from this analysis. First, migration is clearly crucial for to workers from the European Union for new permits and the economic future of Albania, both in terms of fi nancing severely restricted work permits for migrants from the rest of economic development, serving as an informal safety net, the world. and in reducing excess labor supply and poverty. However, The empirical analysis showed that when there was no the potential disincentive effect on labor effort and participa- discriminatory treatment by immigration policy, immigrant tion would have implications in terms of missed opportuni- workers from the former Yugoslavia responded to fi nancial ties for development. Second, agriculture appears to be more and cultural incentives in the same way as their unskilled of a survival strategy than part of a poverty exit strategy. counterparts from Southern European countries. The restric- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— tion on permit availability in the mid-1990s appeared to have Calogero Carletto ([email protected]). weakened the fi nancial and cultural attractiveness of Switzer- Project Code: P088182. land for immigrants from the former Yugoslavia. This result Completion date: June 2006. may have been a signal of the change in the characteristics of migrants from the region toward higher skill levels. The project fi ndings were presented at the Global Forum for Migration and Development, Brussels, and in Paris, Cairo, and London. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team-

111 International Trade and Investment

Global Trade Architecture Project Code: P091490. Completion date: March 2007. This research project explored options that could help enhance the development dimension of the World Trade Or- Publications ganization, including complementary measures and “aid Bown, Chad, and Bernard Hoekman. 2005. “WTO Dispute for trade.” Settlement and the Missing Developing Country Cases: En- The project focused on what could be done to enhance gaging the Private Sector.” Journal of International Economic the coherence between the activities of the development Law 8(4):861-90. community (aid, technical assistance) and the World Trade Bown, Chad, and Rachel McCulloch. 2007. “Facilitating Adjust- Organization’s trading system. What is the impact of global ment to Trade in the WTO System.” Oxford Review of Eco- trade reform on poverty and what complementary measures nomic Policy. are needed to enhance the benefi ts of trade liberalization? Eschenbach, Felix, and Bernard Hoekman. 2006. “Services Poli- How large is preference erosion? What is the distributional cies in Transition Economies: On the EU and WTO as Com- impact of trade reforms? mitment Mechanisms.” World Trade Review 5(3): 415-43. The project carried out a mix of theoretical analyses of Eschenbach, Felix, and Bernard Hoekman. 2006. “Services Pol- the incentives for multilateral trade cooperation, economet- icy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies, ric analyses of product-level trade and trade policy data com- 1990-2004.” Review of World Economics 142(4): 746-64. bined with household level information on consumption, Evenett, Simon J., and Bernard Hoekman, eds. 2006. Economic and development of databases on trade policy (antidumping, Development and Multilateral Cooperation. New York: Palgrave- safeguards) and dispute settlement. Macmillan and World Bank. The fi ndings showed that aid for trade interventions to Gawande, Kishore, and Bernard Hoekman. 2006. “Lobbying and lower trade costs would help poor households to exploit Agricultural Trade Policy in the United States.” International trade opportunities. However global trade liberalization Organization 60(3): 527-61. alone would not have large effects on the poor in poor coun- Finger, J.M. 2007. “Reciprocity in the Doha Round: Dealing tries where preference erosion is a major issue. The fi nd- with the Implementation Problem.“ Oxford Review of Eco- ings also showed that poor countries do not directly benefi t nomic Policy. from World Trade Organization’s enforcement mechanisms, Francois, Joe, B. Hoekman, and Miriam Manchin. 2006. “Quan- and that policy space and fl exibility mechanisms in the World tifying the Magnitude of Preference Erosion due to Mul- Trade Organization do not do much to promote better devel- tilateral Trade Liberalization.” World Bank Economic Review opment outcomes. 20(2): 197-216. The main impact of this research program was to bolster Hoekman, Bernard M. 2006. “Preference Erosion and the Doha the case for “aid for trade” to complement trade negotiations Development Agenda.” In Jean-Marie Paugam and Anne- and enhance the benefi ts of trade reforms for poor countries. Sophie Novel, eds. Reviving the Special and Differential Treat- Project fi ndings have been presented at seminars in Ar- ment of Developing Countries in International Trade. Paris: Inst. usha, Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam, Hong Kong, Toronto, Oxford, Francais des Relations Internationales. Brussels, Cairo, Cotonou, New Haven, Geneva, London, and Hoekman, Bernard. 2006. “The International Trade Order: Windhoek Cooperation for Economic Development.” In Christopher Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Findlay and Hadi Soesastro, eds. Reshaping the Asia-Pacific Bernard Hoekman ([email protected]), Marcelo Economic Order. Routledge. Olarreaga, and Guido Porto. With Kyle Bagwell, Chad Bown, Hoekman, Bernard. 2005a. “Operationalizing the Concept of Felix Eschenbach, Simon Evenett, Joseph Francois, Kishore Policy Space in the WTO: Beyond Special and Differential Gawande, Philip Levy, Nuno Limao, Vlad Manole, Patrick Treatment.” Journal of International Economic Law. Messerlin, Alessandro Nicita, Dominique Njinkeu, How- Hoekman, B. 2005b. “Making the WTO More Supportive of De- ard Pack, Sheila Page, Kamal Saggi, Isidro Soloaga, Robert velopment.” Finance and Development (March): 14-18. Staiger, and Thierry Verdier. Hoekman, Bernard M. “Trade Liberalization, Trade Agreements

112 and Economic Development.” In Tain-Jy Chen and Mitsuo B. Hoekman and M. Olarreaga, eds. Impacts and Implica- Matsushita, eds. Trade Remedies: East Asian Perspectives. De- tions of Global Trade Reform on Poverty. Washington, D.C.: venter: Kluwer. Brookings Institution. Hoekman, Bernard M. “Economic Development, Policy Coher- Suwa-Eisenman, Akiko, and Thierry Verdier. 2007. “Aid, Trade ence, and Trade Agreements: Beyond Market Access.” In B. and FDI.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy. Hoekman and M. Olarreaga, eds. Global Trade Liberalization Winters, L. Alan. 2007. “Coherence and the WTO.” Oxford Re- and Poor Countries: Poverty Impacts and Policy Implications. view of Economic Policy. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. Hoekman, Bernard M. “Overcoming Discrimination Against Political Economy of Trade Policy Developing Countries.” In J.J. Barcelo III and H. Corbett, eds. Dismantling Discrimination in the WTO System. Lanham This research project aimed at identifying the winners and MD: Rowman and Littlefield. losers associated with different trade policies or reforms, in- Hoekman, Bernard, and Marcelo Olarreaga, eds. 2007. Impacts cluding agricultural trade liberalization in the World Trade and Implications of Global Trade Reform on Poverty. Washing- Organization and tariff preferences granted by the United ton, D.C.: Brookings Institution, Sciences Po, and Yale Cen- States to Latin American and Sub-Saharan African countries. ter for the Study of Globalization. The research used a range of methodologies, building on par- Hoekman, B., and Susan Prowse. 2005a. “Development and tial equilibrium global trade models to identify winners and the WTO: Beyond Business as Usual.” Bridges 9(2-3, losers, and the Grossman-Helpman lobbying trade model to February- March). incorporate the role of political economy factors. Hoekman, Bernard, Costas Michalopoulos, and L. Alan Winters. The fi ndings relating to agricultural trade policy suggest- 2006. “Improving Special and Differential Treatment: Some ed that agricultural exporters should focus their negotiating Proposals.” In P. van Dijk and G. Faber, eds. Developing Coun- capital on market access, not subsidies. For developing countries and the Doha Development Agenda of the WTO. Routledge. tries, the greatest barrier to agricultural exports was border Limão, Nuno. 2006. “Preferential vs. Multilateral Liberaliza- protection, addressed in the market access negotiations. The tion: Evidence and Open Questions.” World Trade Review gains from elimination of domestic agricultural subsidies in 5:155-76. rich countries were likely to be small. Moreover, liberaliza- Limão, Nuno, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. “Trade Preferences tion of agricultural trade may have actually hurt many de- to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of veloping and least developed countries (such as Mauritania) Lost Multilateral Liberalization.” World Bank Economic Re- because it led to deterioration in their terms of trade. view 20(2): 217-40. The results relating to U.S. tariff preferences for poor Manchin, Miriam. 2006. “Preference Utilisation and Tariff Re- countries suggested that only a fraction of the gains were duction in EU Imports from ACP Countries.” World Economy captured by developing country exporters; a sometimes sig- 29(9): 1243-66. nifi cant share was captured by rich country importers. African Martin, Will, and Patrick Messerlin. 2007. “Why So Difficult? exporters of apparel captured on average only 30 percent of Trade Liberalization under the Doha Agenda.” Oxford Re- the tariff rent associated with the tariff preferences under the view of Economic Policy. U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act. Exporters tended Mavroidis, Petros. 2005. “Testing the Compliance of PTAs with to capture a larger share in the presence of greater competi- the Multilateral Rules.” World Trade Review. tion among importers. Similarly, although lobbying for tariff Olarreaga, M., and C. Özden. 2005, “AGOA and Apparel: Who preferences in the United States may have had important re- Captures the Tariff Rent in the Presence of Preferential turns for Latin American exporters, it had larger returns for Market Access?” World Economy 28(1), 63-77. U.S. importers. Ozden, Caglar, and G. Sharma. 2006.“Price Effects of Preferen- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— tial Market Access: Caribbean Basin Initiative and the Ap- Marcelo Olarreaga ([email protected]), Bernard parel Sector.” World Bank Economic Review 20(2): 241-59. Hoekman, Hiau Looi Kee, Francis Ng, and Çaglar Özden. Pack, Howard, and Kamal Saggi. 2006. “The Case for Industri- With Peri Silva, University of Illinois. al Policy: A Critical Survey.” World Bank Research Observer Project Code: P065308. 21(2): 267-97. Completion date: June 2006. Porto, Guido. 2007. “An Analysis of the WTO Develop- ment Round on Poverty in Rural and Urban Zambia.” In

113 Publications Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; meetings with World Hoekman, Bernard, Francis Ng, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2004. Bank and European Commission (Trade) economists, Wash- “Agricultural Tariffs or Subsidies: Which Are More Impor- ington, D.C.; meetings with several Secretariats of Sub-Saha- tant for Developing Economies?” World Bank Economic Re- ran African regional agreements; and the Annual Bank Con- view 18(2): 175–204. ference on Development Economics, Dakar (January 2005). Kee, Hiau Looi, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Peri Silva. 2007. “Mar- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— ket Access for Sale.” Journal of Development Economics 82(1). Maurice Schiff ([email protected]). Limao, Nuno, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. “Trade Prefer- Project Code: P079557. ences to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Cost Completion date: June 2005. of Lost Multilateral Liberalization.” World Bank Economic Review 20(2). Publication Olarreaga, Marcelo, and Çaglar Özden. 2005. “AGOA and Ap- Schiff, Maurice, and L. Hinkle. 2004. “Economic Partnership parel: Who Captures the Tariff Rent Associated with Prefer- Agreements between Sub-Saharan Africa and the EU: A De- ential Access?” World Economy 28(1): 63–77. velopment Perspective.” 2004. World Economy (June). Silva, Peri. 2005. “The Role of Importers and Exporters in De- termining Tariff Preferences Granted by the U.S. to Latin Determinants of Trade Policy in Developing Countries American Exporters.” Policy Research Working Paper 3518. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Understanding the economic and political determinants of trade barriers is important for evaluating the impact that re- Regional Integration and Development moving these barriers would have on trade fl ows or the costs and benefi ts of trade barriers. This knowledge is also crucial The purpose of this research was to analyze regional integra- for developing and designing trade policy reform packages: tion and produce a book oriented to policy and lay audiences. those that ignore the underlying determinants of trade policy This book covers a large number of topics, providing depth run the risk of being economically inappropriate and infea- in terms of analytical framework, case studies, empirical sible or simply politically unacceptable. work, and background data. The project accumulated a large This research project evaluated the relative signifi cance amount of material and expertise, and presented the fi ndings of a variety of factors underlying trade protection in develop- in a consolidated, rigorous, detailed, and accessible manner. ing countries. The analysis fi rst developed a broad theoreti- Sound international trade policy is a fundamental require- cal framework allowing the derivation of predictions relating ment for economic development, and sound policy includes trade policy to underlying determinants. Then it estimated maintaining open borders for trade in goods and services and these relationships to arrive at quantitative estimates of param- for foreign direct investment. Research has shown that this eters describing the relative magnitude of a variety of factors openness is best achieved by reducing barriers to trade and affecting trade policy in more than 50 developing countries. investment evenhandedly on all partners, that is, by non- Finally, to explain cross-country variations in the structure preferential trade liberalization. Such liberalization is de- of trade protection, the analysis looked for associations be- sirable regardless of whether trading partners reduce their tween the factors determining trade policy and a variety of barriers in return; that is, unilateral trade liberalization is de- economic and institutional variables in these countries. sirable. The project recognized, however, that political pres- The project fi ndings showed that strengthening coun- sures could push governments toward regionalism and that ter-lobbying by users of intermediate goods and factors regional integration agreements might be appropriate solu- was an effective way of promoting trade liberalization in tions to national policy needs. developing countries. The project gathered a number of contributions to the Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— literature on the static effects, dynamics, credibility aspects, Marcelo Olarreaga ([email protected]), Hiau Looi and politics of regional integration. It consolidated analysis Kee, and Alessandro Nicita. With Kishore Gawande, Texas and policy recommendations on regional integration strategy A&M University; Pravin Krishna, Johns Hopkins University; for developing countries. Olivier Cadot, University of Lausanne; and Jaime de Melo, The project fi ndings were presented at the OECD, Paris, University of Geneva. France; CEPII, Paris, France; Regional Integration Network, Project Code: P087859. Montevideo; Central Bank of Chile, Santiago; World Trade Completion date: June 2005.

114 Publications iff line rather than industry level). All these results have im- Cadot, Olivier, Jaime de Melo, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2004. plications for the measurement of the welfare cost associated “Lobbying, Counterlobbying, and the Structure of Tariff with trade barriers. Protection in Poor and Rich Countries.” World Bank Econom- The data set of trade elasticities was distributed and dis- ic Review 18(3): 345–66. cussed in a World Bank course in Washington, D.C., in No- Kee, Hiau Looi, Alessandro Nicita, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. vember 2004 and will be used in a series of World Bank Insti- “Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices.” Policy Research tute courses in developing countries. The results were used Working Paper 3840. World Bank, Washington, D.C. in computing the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index and in Krishna, Pravin, Kishore Gawande, and Marcelo Olarreaga. estimating the effect of regional trade agreements in African 2004. “What Governments Maximize and Why: A View from and Latin American countries. Trade.” World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- The results have been presented at workshops and con- ington, D.C. ferences at the World Bank, Brown University, the Woodrow ———. 2005. “A Political Economy Account of Protection in De- Wilson Center, the Center for Global Development, and the veloping Countries.” World Bank, Development Research University of West Virginia as well as at the Latin American Group, Washington, D.C. and Caribbean Economic Association meetings in San José, ———. 2006. “Lobbying Competition over Trade Policy.” World Costa Rica. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. The data set will be posted on the Web at http://www. worldbank.org/research/trade/. Estimating Trade Elasticities Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Marcelo Olarreaga ([email protected]) and Hiau Import demand and export supply elasticities are part of the Looi Kee. With Alessandro Nicita, University of Geneva; everyday tool kit for trade policy analysis, needed for any ex- Robert Feenstra, University of California; and Eugenia Bar- ercise estimating the impact of a trade reform on customs, oncelli, University of Bologna. export, and import revenue. These elasticities are also cru- Project Code: P082628. cial for transforming a nontariff barrier into an ad valorem Completion date: January 2005. equivalent of the cost for importers. Some of these barriers (agricultural subsidies and sanitary and phytosanitary stan- Publications dards) have taken on great importance in the Doha agenda, Kee, Hiau Looi, Alessandro Nicita, and Marcelo Olarreaga. and estimating their costs for developing country exports is 2004a. “Estimating Export Supply Elasticities.” World Bank, essential. But trade economists have lacked a consistent set Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. of up-to-date import demand and export supply elasticities ———. 2004b. “Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distor- to do so. This research project aimed to fi ll that gap by pro- tions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3452. World Bank, , viding a consistent set of trade elasticities by year for 117 Washington, D.C. industrial and developing countries and 4,200 products. The methodology closely followed the GDP function The Impact of Trade Liberalization and International approach to estimating trade elasticities, treating imports Exposure on Labor and Capital Adjustment Functions in as inputs into domestic production given exogenous world Uruguay prices, productivity, and endowments. The analysis treated imports as inputs into the GDP function—rather than as fi - The traditional microeconomic textbook model assumes that nal consumption goods, as in most previous literature. The the levels of employment and capital used by fi rms are opti- main difference with earlier estimates using the GDP func- mal at any point in time. But since it is costly to adjust em- tion approach was that import demand elasticities were esti- ployment and capital levels, it is often the case that establish- mated at the tariff line level rather than at the aggregate or ments deviate from what would be optimal in the absence of industry level. friction. This research project looked at the way fi rms react to The results showed much heterogeneity in import demand this shortage to shed light on many issues of microeconomic and export supply elasticities across products and countries. and macroeconomic employment and capital adjustment. Elasticities tended to be larger among homogeneous goods. The empirical work was based on a panel of establishments They were also larger in large and poor countries. And they in Uruguay. were larger when estimated at very disaggregated levels (tar- The development strategy of the Uruguayan economy

115 evolved from inward-looking, based on state intervention- ed to trade facilitation and development, including customs ism, and import substitution protectionist policies toward an and border controls and impact on trade costs, international outward-looking orientation. The outward orientation relied security and trade, World Trade Organization negotiations on more on markets as resource allocation mechanisms and ex- trade facilitation and developing country interests, standards ports as the growth engine. This change started in the 1970s, and regulations affecting trade costs, the role of infrastruc- when the fi rst phase of trade reform took place accompanied ture in driving trade transactions costs, and regional agree- by a quick fi nancial liberalization process. During the 1990s, ments on trade facilitation and developing country interests, a second phase of trade liberalization took place. This phase among others. combined deepened gradual unilateral tariff reduction with The project addressed trade facilitation in a broad con- the creation of Mercosur, an imperfect customs union be- text, beyond issues only associated with border controls. The tween Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. research produced research and policy papers on the above The analysis showed that highly protected sectors adjust- noted topics, as well as new data sets on issues related to ed less when creating jobs (reducing labor shortages) comtrade costs. pared with sectors with low protection. Highly protected sec- The project fi ndings were presented at seminars in Wash- tors adjusted more easily (than low protection sectors) when ington, D.C. (May and October 2006); Bonn, Germany (May destroying jobs (reducing labor surpluses), especially in the 2006); Adelaide, Sanctuary Cove, and Canberra, Australia case of blue collar labor. This suggests that trade protection (August 2006); Cincinnati, Ohio (November 2006); New may in fact destroy rather than create jobs within industries, Haven, Connecticut (February 2007); Cairo, Egypt (March as fi rms in highly protected sectors are more reluctant to hire 2007); and Berlin, Germany (November 2007). and more ready to fi re than fi rms in sectors with low pro- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— tection. The results for capital were qualitatively similar but John S. Wilson ([email protected]). With Ben Shep- quantitatively smaller, suggesting that trade protection plays herd and Matthias Helble. less of a role in explaining adjustment costs for capital. Inter- Project Code: P095689. estingly, export-oriented sectors had lower adjustment costs Completion date: September 2007. for blue collar labor but not for white collar employment or capital. Thus, export-led growth may have been particularly Publications successful in reducing blue collar unemployment. Bagai, Shweta, and John S. Wilson. 2006. “The Data Chase: Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— What’s Out There on Trade Costs and Non-tariff Barriers.” Marcelo Olarreaga ([email protected]), Carlos Casa- Policy Research Working Paper 3899. World Bank, Washing- cuberta (Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo) y Nestor ton, D.C. Gandelman (Universidad ORT, Montevideo). Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang, Tsunehiro Otsuki, and John S. Wilson. Project Code: P094072. 2006. “Do Standards Matter for Export Success?” Policy Re- Completion date: June 2006. search Working Paper 3809. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Djankov, Simeon, Caroline Freund, and Cong S. Pham. 2006. Publications “Trading on Time.” Policy Research Working Paper 3909. Casacuberta, Carlos, and Nestor Gandelman. 2006. “Protec- World Bank, Washington, D.C. tion, Openness, and Factor Adjustment: Evidence from the Finger, J. Michael, and John S. Wilson. 2006. “Trade Facili- Manufacturing Sector in Uruguay.” Policy Research Working tation, Implementation, the Doha Development Agen- Paper 3891. World Bank, Washington, D.C. da.” Policy Research Working Paper 3971. World Bank, ———. Forthcoming. “Factor Adjustment and Imports from Washington, D.C. China and India: Evidence from Uruguayan Manufactur- Francois, Joseph, and Miriam Manchin. 2007. “Institutions, In- ing.” In Daniel Lederman, Guillermo Perry, and Marcelo frastructure, and Trade.” Policy Research Working Paper Olarreaga, eds., Latin America’s Response to China and India. 4152. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Maskus, Keith E., John S. Wilson, and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2005. “The Cost of Compliance with Product Standards for Firms Trade Facilitation in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study.” Policy Re- search Working Paper 3590. World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project examined the link between trade costs, Mirza, Daniel, and Thierry Verdier. 2006a. “Are Lives a Substi- trade facilitation, and development. It explored issues relat- tute to Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security and U.S. Bilateral

116 Imports.” Policy Research Working Paper 4094. World Bank, trade indicators and performance variables included indices Washington, D.C. of trade intensity, intra-industry trade, revealed comparative ______. 2006b. “International Trade, Security, and Transnational advantage, export specialization, diversifi cation, trade com- Terrorism: Theory and Empirics.” Policy Research Working plementarity, export dynamics, market share changes, and Paper 4093. World Bank, Washington, D.C. various measures of growth in commodity trade. Otsuki, Tsunehiro, Maggie Xiaoyang Chen, and John S. Wilson. The fi ndings included trade performance and policy re- 2006. “Do Standards Matter for Export Success?” Policy Re- forms in the dimension of economic growth and regional in- search Working Paper 3809. World Bank, Washington, D.C. tegration across regions as well as country specifi c fi ndings. Shepherd, Ben, and John S. Wilson. 2006. “Road Infrastructure And trade newsletter have been accessed and distributed in Europe and Central Asia: Does Network Quality Affect to 15,000 internal and external subscribers, including many Trade?” Policy Research Working Paper 4104. World Bank, individuals, government offi cials, researchers and agencies in Washington, D.C. developing countries. Soloaga, Isidro, John S. Wilson, and Alejandro Mejia. 2006a. The data manipulation and analytical methodology has “Moving Forward Faster: Trade Facilitation Reform and been contributed directly to country studies for Albania, Ar- Mexican Competitiveness.” Policy Research Working Paper menia, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Kenya, Latvia, Lesotho, 3953. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Madagascar, Mali, Nepal, Philippines, Romania, Tanzania, ______. 2006b. “Trade Facilitation Reform and Competitive- Turkey, East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Europe and Cen- ness.” In Mexico Competitiveness: Reaching its Potential. Wash- tral Asia, among others. ington, D.C.: World Bank. The project fi ndings were presented at a World Trade Or- Wilson, John S. 2005. “Trade Facilitation and Economic Devel- ganization conference, Barcelona, Spain (January 2007). opment.” World Trade Brief. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— ______. 2006. “Trade Facilitation: Why It Matters to APEC and Bernard Hoekman ([email protected]) and Fran- What Next.” APEC Economies Newsletter, Research Focus, cis K. Ng. Australian National University (September). Project Code: P083356. Wilson, John S., Xubei Luo, and Harry Broadman. 2006. “Enter- Completion date: June 2007. ing the Union: European Accession and Capacity-Building Priorities.” Policy Research Working Paper 3832. World Publications Bank, Washington, D.C. Hoekman, Bernard. Forthcoming. “Technical Notes on Trade Indicators and Country Profiles.” In Trading Indicators: Trade Policy Data Support/Dissemination Competitiveness in International Markets. World Bank WBI/ PREM Report. World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project analyzed trade policy data to support Hoekman, Bernard, and A. Aksoy. Forthcoming. “Who Are the clients’ needs and research applications. It provided empiri- Net Food Importing Countries?” Policy Research Working cal evidence on dimension of trade issues facing the interna- Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. tional trade community. Hoekman, Bernard, N. Aminian, and K.C. Fung. 2007. “Integra- The project investigated a wide range of trade questions, tion of Market vs. Integration by Agreement.” Paper pre- including the following: (i) What are the trade patterns and sented at WTO Conference on The New Agenda for Inter- performance/growth in the region as well as in specifi c coun- national Trade Relations as the Doha Round Draws to an tries? (ii) What is the composition of trade and market share End, January 29-30, Barcelona, Spain. for developing countries in world markets? (iii) How is trade Hoekman, Bernard, and K.C. Fund. 2005. “Multilateral Trade integrated in the regions in the content of production shar- Negotiations in the GATT and the WTO: Lessons for Asia.” ing in the particular market development? (iv) What are the Asian Economic Papers 3(2). trade barriers facing in OECD markets and domestic mar- Hoekman, Bernard, and Bartlomiej Kaminski. 2005. “Produc- kets in developing countries in the import regimes, includ- tion Disintegration and Integration of Central Europe into ing tariff structure, agricultural subsidies, anti-dumping, and Global Markets.” International Review of Economics and Fi- non-tariff measures? nance 14(3). The project carried out data collection and analysis, cre- ______. 2006a. “Bulgaria’s Integration into Pan-European Econ- ated a trade fl ow matrix, investigated trade barriers, and omy and Industrial Restructuring.” Policy Research Working developed a model for trade indicator measures. The set of Paper 3863. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

117 ______. 2006b. “Turkey’s Evolving Trade Integration into Pan- constructed Tornquist price indices using both import and European Markets.” Policy Research Working Paper 3908. export unit prices from 6-digit HS data. The index was con- World Bank, Washington, D.C. structed at the 3 or 4-digit ISIC using the set of 6-digit goods Hoekman, Bernard, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2004. “Agricultural that overlaps in each consecutive year. Construction of im- Tariffs or Subsidies: Which Are More Important for Devel- port demand elasticities estimated at the industry level also oping Countries?” World Bank Economic Review 18(2). followed this approach. ______. 2007a. “The Impact of Agricultural Support Policies The database is publicly available at www.worldbank.org/ on Developing Countries.” In A. McCalla and J. Nash, eds. trade (click on “Data and Statistics”). Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries, Vol. 1. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Marcelo Olarreaga ([email protected]), and Ales- ______. 2007b. “Reducing Agricultural Tariffs or Domestic sandro Nicita. With Eliana Rubiano, Fedesarrollo, Colombia; Support: Which Is More Important for Developing Coun- and Hager Ben-Mahmoud. tries?” In A. McCalla and J. Nash, eds. Reforming Agricultur- Project Code: P094071. al Trade for Developing Countries, Vol. 2. Washington, D.C.: Completion date: June 2006. World Bank. Hoekman, Bernard, and Vera Songwe. Forthcoming. “Assess- Publication ment of Philippines External Competitiveness.” Policy Re- Nicita, Alessandro, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2007. “Trade, Pro- search Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. duction and Protection, 1976-2004.” World Bank Economic Hoekman, Bernard, and Alexander Yeats. 2004. “Export Profiles Review 21(1). of Small Landlocked Countries: What are Their Implica- tions for Lesotho?” The South African Journal of Econom- Trade Costs, Export Competitiveness, and Development ics 72(1, March). Prospects ______. 2005. “Kenya: Export Prospects and Problems.” Africa Region Working Paper 90. World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project set out to develop an outline for new indicators of trade facilitation, building on several databases Trade and Production II, 1976-2003 at the World Bank. The project explored, for example, new methods to leverage a fi rm-level database on standards from The objective of this research project was to update the 15 countries and approximately 690 fi rms. It also updated the Trade and Production 1976-1999 database, which was devel- trade facilitation data of 75 countries. This involved creating oped in 2001 and is publicly available at: www.worldbank. a matrix and outline for possible new indicators that would org/trade. As with the previous database, an important part of quantify the costs of delays in transport, customs clearance, the work consisted in gathering and organizing existing data and meeting duplicative standards requirements on interna- from different sources. Data sources included trade data from tional trade. the United Nations COMTRADE, production data from The project combined two lines of exploration: the impact UNIDO, input/output tables from GTAP, tariff data from the of standards on trade, and the impact of trade facilitation in- World Trade Organization, and UNCTAD’s Trains. dicators on trade, with a focus on developing countries. In the 3-digit ISIC database, the project added the follow- The project fi ndings included empirical evidence that ing countries: Benin, Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Czech Republic, harmonized standards have affected export competitiveness, El Salvador, Iceland, Israel, Jamaica, Belgium, Luxembourg, in particular through Mutual Recognition Agreements. The Oman, Russian Federation, Saint Lucia, Senegal, Tunisia, fi ndings also showed that country and regional gains to trade Tanzania, Yugoslavia, and Zimbabwe. In the 4-digit ISIC associated with raising capacity in trade facilitation. database, the new countries were: China, Slovenia, Côte Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— d’Ivoire, Fiji, Finland, Honduras, Iceland, Mauritania, Nepal, John S. Wilson ([email protected]). With Yoko Yama- Nigeria, Saint Lucia, Senegal, Swaziland, Thailand, Turkey, moto and Ayako Suzuki. Russian Federation and Sweden. The time coverage was in- Project Code: P096129. creased by an additional four years (up to 2003 when data Completion date: June 2007. were available). In terms of variables, the main addition was the mea- Publications surement of export and import price indices. The project Chen, Maggie, Ayako Suzuki, and John S. Wilson. “Mu-

118 tual Recognition Agreements and Trade.” World Bank, positive as progress occurs in complementary areas of reform. Washington, D.C. Many countries stand to lose from opening their markets if Soloaga, Isidro, John Wilson, and Alejandro Mejia. 2006. they do not advance signifi cantly regarding labor market fl ex- “Trade Facilitation Reform and Competitiveness.” In ibility and fi rm entry/exit fl exibility. Mexico Competitiveness: Reaching its Potential. World Bank, Preliminary fi ndings have been presented at the George Washington, D.C. Washington University, the World Bank, the Central Bank of Wilson, John S. Forthcoming. “Standards and Developing Chile, the Central Bank of Peru, and the Tenth Conference Country Exports: A Review of Selected Studies and Sug- of Dynamics, Growth, and International Trade. gestions for Future Research.” International Agricultural Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and Research Consortium. Macroeconomics Team—Norman V. Loayza (nloayza@world- Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki. “Regional Integration in bank.org). With Roberto Chang, Rutgers University, and Lin- South Asia: What Role for Trade Facilitation?” World Bank, da Kaltani, International Monetary Fund. Washington, D.C. Project Code: PO80834. Completion date: June 2008. Trade Openness Can Be Good for Growth If Accompanied by Complementary Reforms Publication Chang, Roberto, Linda Kaltani, and Norman Loayza. 2007. Although opening to trade is benefi cial to economic growth “Openness Can Be Good for Growth: The Role of Policy on average, the aftermath of trade liberalization varies con- Complementarities.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. siderably across countries. This research project is studying how the effect of trade openness on economic growth de- Beyond Openness: Trade and Behind the Border Policy pends on a variety of conditions related to the structure of Reforms the economy and its institutions. The project presents a simple model where the gains in The objective of this research project was to provide sup- output after trade liberalization depend on the degree of port for a broader research program analyzing the impacts of labor market fl exibility. The model is a version of the well non-border policies and institutions on the trade costs and known Harris-Todaro model, and labor market distortions are competitiveness of fi rms. represented by a minimum wage that applies to the formal The analysis focused on the effects of service sector poli- sector of the economy. Trade restrictions are modeled as a cies and reforms, entry and operating requirements for for- tariff that also applies to formal sector output. In the model, eign investors, policies to attract foreign direct investment, trade protection may serve to ameliorate the problem of un- determinants of technology diffusion, product standards and deremployment (and underproduction) in the sector affected related compliance requirements, and intellectual property by labor market distortions. As a consequence, trade liber- rights. alization unambiguously increases per capita income only The research built on existing methodologies and knowl- when labor market distortions are suffi ciently small. edge, and had complementarities with efforts to measure The project also presents some cross-country empirical the state of the investment climate in developing countries. evidence on how the growth effect of openness depends on a The program included data collection projects on specifi c variety of structural characteristics, including some that may policies, empirical and econometric analysis, and sector and be subject to reform. The analysis interacts the openness country studies. measure with proxies for educational investment, fi nancial Because it was a program of research as opposed to a spe- depth, infl ation stabilization, public infrastructure, gover- cifi c project, it supported various sub-projects that generated nance, labor-market fl exibility, and ease of fi rm entry and an array of fi ndings. A general theme that emerged from the exit. The objective for using this non-linear specifi cation is research on “behind the border” policies was that these have to assess whether an increase in openness may have a growth had important impacts on the competitiveness of fi rms in de- effect that depends on country characteristics that, at least in veloping countries. principle, are subject to improvement through economic and The fi ndings showed that policies that foster competition institutional reforms. in markets for inputs – technology and producer services – The project fi ndings show that the growth impact of open- can have signifi cant impacts on growth performance. Similar- ness is positive on average but it changes from negative to ly, policies to ensure that fi nal product markets are competi-

119 tive are an important complement to an open trade regime as ———. 2005b. “Income-Related Biases in International a source of market discipline, although trade openness tends Trade: What Do Trademark Registration Data Tell Us?” to have a larger effect than domestic competition policies do. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv (Review of World Economics) Furthermore, complementary policies are important determi- 141: 79-103. nants of the absorption of international technologies that are Fink, Carsten, and Keith Maskus, eds. 2006. Empirical Investiga- transferred through trade and investment fl ows, and the pov- tions on the Effects of Intellectual Property Protection on Market erty reducing effects of greater trade openness. Behind the Structure, Trade and Foreign Direct Investment. Oxford Univer- border policies can raise trade costs signifi cantly. Therefore, sity Press. a focus on reducing such costs is a necessary complement to Fink, Carsten, Aaditya Mattoo, and Ileana Cristina Neagu. 2005. policies to liberalize trade and investment fl ows in order to “Assessing the Impact of Communication Costs on Interna- increase the benefi cial effects of openness on productivity, tional Trade.” Journal of International Economics 67: 428-45. growth, and poverty reduction. Freund, Caroline. 2004. “The Effect of the Internet on Interna- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— tional Trade.” Journal of International Economics 62: 171-89. Bernard Hoekman ([email protected]), Carsten Gawande, Kishore, and Bernard Hoekman. 2006. “Lobbying and Fink, Caroline Freund, Beata Javorcik, Hiau Looi Kee, Aa- Agricultural Trade Policy in the United States.” International ditya Mattoo, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Guido Porto. With Organization 60(3): 527-61. Kishore Gawande, Cristina Neagu, Alessandro Nicita, Ran- Hoekman, Bernard M. 2004. “Developing Countries and the deep Rathindran, Kamal Saggi, Mariana Spatareanu, and Yan- WTO Doha Round: Market Access, Rules and Differential ling Wang. Treatment.” Journal of Economic Integration 19: 205-29. Project Code: P086752. ———. 2005a. “Expanding WTO Membership and Heteroge- Completion date: March 2006. neous Interests.” World Trade Review 4(3): 401-09. ———. 2005b. “Operationalizing the Concept of Policy Space Publications in the WTO: Beyond Special and Differential Treatment.” Amiti, Mary, and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik. 2006. “Trade Costs Journal of International Economic Law 8: 405-24. and Location of Foreign Firms in China.” Journal of Develop- ———. 2006. “The Doha Round and Preference Erosion: A ment Economics. Symposium.” World Bank Economic Review 20(2). Anderson, Kym, and L. Jackson. 2005. “Some Implications of Hoekman, Bernard M., and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik. 2004. GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa.” “Policies to Encourage Firm Adjustment to Globalization.” Journal of African Economies 14: 385-410. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 20: 457-73. ———. 2006. “Transgenic Crops, EU Precaution, and Develop- Hoekman, Bernard, and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, eds. 2006. ing Countries.” International Journal of Technology and Global- Global Integration and Technology Transfer. Washington, D.C.: ization 2(1/2): 65-80. World Bank, and New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Branstetter, Lee, Raymond Fisman, and Fritz Foley. 2006. “Do Hoekman, Bernard, and Hiau Looi Kee. 2007. “Imports, Entry Stronger Intellectual Property Rights Increase International and Competition Law as Market Disciplines.” European Technology Transfer? Empirical Evidence from U.S. Firm-Lev- Economic Review 51(4): 831-58. el Panel Data.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 121(1): 321-49. Hoekman, Bernard M., Hiau Looi Kee, and Marcelo Olarrea- Eschenbach, Felix, and Bernard Hoekman. 2006a. “Services Pol- ga. 2004. “Tariffs, Entry Regulation and Markups: Does icies in Transition Economies: On the EU and WTO as Com- Country Size Matter?” Contributions to Macroeconomics 4(1). mitment Mechanisms.” World Trade Review, 5(3): 415-43. Berkeley Electronic Press. (http://www.bepress.com/bejm/ ———. 2006b. “Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth contributions/vol4/iss1/art8). in Transition Economies, 1990-2004.” Review of World Eco- Hoekman, Bernard, Keith Maskus, and Kamal Saggi. 2005. nomics, 142(4): 746-64. “Transfer of Technology to Developing Countries: Unilat- Evenett, Simon, and Bernard Hoekman. 2005. “Government eral and Multilateral Policy Options.” World Development 33: Procurement: Market Access, Transparency and Multilat- 1587-1602. eral Trade Rules.” European Journal of Political Economy Hoekman, Bernard, and Kamal Saggi. 2006. “International Co- 21: 163-83. operation on Domestic Policies: Lessons from the WTO Fink, Carsten, and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik. 2005a. “The Competition Policy Debate.” In S. Evenett and B. Hoekman, Global Distribution of Trademarks: Some Stylized Facts.” eds., Economic Development and Multilateral Trade Cooperation. The World Economy 28: 749-922. Washington, D.C.: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan.

120 ———. 2007. “Tariff Bindings and Bilateral Cooperation on Ex- Schiff, Maurice. 2004. “North-South Technology Diffusion, Re- port Cartels.” Journal of Development Economics 83: 141-56. gional Integration, and the Dynamics of the ‘Natural Trading Hoekman, Bernard, and Subidey Togan, eds. 2005. Turkey: Eco- Partners’ Hypothesis.” Revue d’Economie du Developpement. nomic Reform and Accession to the European Union. Washington, D.C.: World Bank and CEPR. Trade Policies in Landlocked Countries Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska. 2004. “The Composition of Foreign Di- rect Investment and Protection of Intellectual Property Rights This project has two major aims. First, it will produce a rig- in Transition Economies.” European Economic Review 48: 1. orous assessment of the extent to which—and the channels Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska, and Chorching Goh. 2005. “Trade through which—being landlocked impacts the trade perfor- Protection and Industry Wage Structure in Poland.” In A. mance of Central Asian countries. Second, based on these Harrison, ed., Globalization and Poverty. Chicago: University results, it will identify policy priorities at the country and re- Chicago Press for the NBER. gional levels, and support ongoing dialogue and operational Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska, and Mariana Spatareanu. 2005. efforts in this area. “Disentangling FDI Spillover Effects: What Do Firm Per- This research will provide a detailed quantitative assess- ceptions Tell Us?” In M. Blomstrom, E. Graham, and T. ment of the implications of Central Asia’s landlocked status Moran, eds., The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Devel- for trade and trade policy. It will estimate the trade effects of opment: New Measures, New Outcomes, New Policy Approaches. being landlocked, having to travel long distances to seaports, Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics. and poor infrastructure quality in exporting, importing, and Mattoo, Aaditya, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Kamal Saggi. 2004. transit countries. “Mode of Foreign entry, Technology transfer and FDI Poli- The analysis is based on a large, panel, gravity model of cy.” Journal of Development Economics 75: 95-111. international trade, covering 167 countries over the period Mattoo, Aaditya, and Randeep Rathindran. 2006. “How Health 1992-2004. The model is consistent with recent theory, and Insurance Impedes Trade in Healthcare.” Health Affairs includes time-variant multilateral resistance terms. The 25(2): 358-68. methodology corrects for the possible endogeneity of some Mattoo, Aaditya, Randeep Rathindran, and Arvind Subramanian. of the explanatory variables. Trade data are taken from the 2006. “Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and its Im- UN Comtrade database, and explanatory variables are con- pact on Economic Growth: An Illustration.” Journal of Eco- structed using the World Development Indicators, CEPII’s nomic Integration 21(0): 64-98. Distance Database, and International Financial Statistics. Ng, Francis K., and Bartlomiej Kaminski. 2005. “Production The poor state of transit country infrastructure penalizes Disintegration and Integration of Central Europe into Glob- trade in Central Asia by a large amount. Monopoly power al Markets.” International Review of Economics and Finance 14: over transit corridors also has a signifi cant trade-inhibiting ef- 377-90. fect. This suggests that diversifi cation of corridors should be Nicita, Alessandro, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. “Trade, Pro- a strategic priority for these countries. Beyond natural barri- duction and Protection Database 1976-2004.” World Bank ers, trade reform is largely an unfi nished agenda in the region: Economic Review 21(1). openness, once corrected for structural factors, is actually on Olarreaga, Marcelo, Maurice Schiff, and Oliver Lumenga-Neso. the retreat. To reverse this trend, cooperation should focus 2005. “On-indirect trade-related R&D spillovers.” European on the management of transit corridors, given the poor track Economic Review 49(7): 1785-98. record of preferential trade liberalization in the region. Ozden, Caglar. 2005. “International Dimensions of Competition Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Policies.” Revue Economique 56: 1413-42. Bernard Hoekman ([email protected]). With Olivi- Porto, Guido. 2005a. “Globalization and Complementary Poli- er Cadot, Celine Carrere, and Christopher Grigoriou, all from cies: Poverty Impacts in Rural Zambia.” In A. Harrison, ed., l’Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Switzerland. Globalization and Poverty. Chicago: University of Chicago Project Code: P099803. Press for the NBER. Completion date: June 30, 2008. ———. 2005b. “Informal Export Barriers and Poverty.” Journal of International Economics 6: 447-70. Publications ———. 2006. “Using Survey Data to Assess the Distributional Cadot, Olivier, Celine Carrere, and Christopher Grigoriou. 2006. Effects of Trade Policy.” Journal of International Economics “Landlockedness, Infrastructure, and Trade in Central Asia.” 70(70): 140-60. Two volumes. Mimeo.

121 Grigoriou, Christopher. Forthcoming. “Landlockedness, In- Agricultural Trade Reforms and Their Impact on Rural frastructure, and Trade: New Estimates for Central Asian Poverty Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The objective of the project was to assess the impact on rural poverty of agricultural trade liberalization at the multilateral, Deep Integration and the Adjustment Process in Mexico regional and unilateral level, with particular emphasis on the existence of market failures. Ex-ante and ex-post analysis This research project is using a case study approach to ex- were conducted. An important conclusion was that agricul- plore the effects of membership in NAFTA and GATT on tural trade liberalization would not likely bring large gains to innovation and trade in the Mexican soaps, detergents, and rural farmers in low-income countries if the Round were not surfactants industry. accompanied by signifi cant amounts of aid and assistance. Several basic fi ndings have emerged. First, the most fun- The aid would have to address market failures in order to damental effect of NAFTA and GATT on this industry has allow farmers to maximize the gains offered by an ambitious been to help induce Wal-Mart to enter Mexico. Once there, Round, while minimizing the losses associated with the nec- Walmex fundamentally changed the retail sector, forcing essary adjustment. The role of rural employment would be an fi rms in the soaps, detergents, and surfactants industry to cut important component of gains in middle-income countries. their profi t margins and/or innovate. Those unable to respond The research analyzed the potential impact of Doha on to this new environment tended to lose market share and, in seven low-income countries (three in Africa, Madagascar, some cases, disappear altogether. Ethiopia, and Zambia; two in Asia, Cambodia and Vietnam; Second, partly in response to Walmex, many Mexican pro- and two in Latin America) with a particular focus on agricul- ducers have logged impressive effi ciency gains. The gains tural liberalization and market imperfections in these coun- have come from both labor shedding and innovation, which tries (subsistence farming, absence of price transmission, in turn were fueled by innovative input suppliers and mul- etc.). The results highlight the importance of complementary tinationals bringing new products and processes from their policies and aid for trade. headquarters to Mexico. The results of these studies have been used as inputs in Finally, although Mexican detergent exports have cap- the trade chapter of World Bank’s Global Monitoring Report tured an increasing share of the U.S. detergent market over of 2005 and the trade chapter of the UN’s Millennium Re- the past decade, Mexican sales in the United States have port. An edited volume is forthcoming at Brookings Univer- been inhibited by a combination of excessive shipping de- sity Press with whom we collaborated in drafting the UN’s lays at the border and artifi cially high input prices (due to Millennium Report. The papers have been presented in sev- Mexican protection of domestic caustic soda suppliers). Two eral academic and policy conferences in Latin America, Af- additional factors have held back sales: lack of brand recog- rica and Europe (e.g., LACEA, CEPR, OECD, WTO, etc.). nition among non-Latin consumers, and the zero-phosphate The two studies for Zambia (cotton marketing reform and laws in many regions of the United States. result from Doha simulations) have been mainstreamed into Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Zambia’s Integrated Framework Diagnostic Study. Beata Javorcik ([email protected]). With Wolfgang Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Keller, University of Colorado, Boulder; and James Tybout, Marcelo Olarreaga ([email protected]), Guido Por- Pennsylvania State University. to and Bernard Hoekman. Olivier Cadot, University of Lau- Project Code: P100168. sanne; Laure Dutoit, University of Lausanne, Bruce Gadner, Completion date: August 2008. University of Maryland; Isidro Soloaga, Universidad de las Americas; .Aylin Isik-Dikmeli, Jorge Balat, Alessandro Nicita, Publication Ataman Aksoy. Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska, Wolfgang Keller, and James Ty- Project Code: P092134. bout. 2006. “Openness and industrial response in a Wal- Completion date: June 2006. Mart World: A Case Study of Mexican Soaps, Detergents, and Surfactant Producers.” Policy Research Working Paper Publications 3999. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Aksoy, Ataman, and Aylin Isik-Dikmelik. 2007. “The Role of Services in Rural Income: The Case of Vietnam.” Policy Re- search Working Paper 4180. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

122 Cadot, Olivier, Laure Dutoit, and Jaime de Melo. 2006. “The Publication Elimination of Madagascar’s Marketing Board, Ten Years Porto, Guido G., Irene Brambilla, and Jorge Balat. 2006. “Real- On.” Policy Research Working Paper 3979. World Bank, izing the Gains from Trade: Export Crops, Marketing Costs, Washington, D.C. and Poverty.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://sitere- Cadot, Olivier, Laure Dutoit, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. sources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/Uganda.pdf. “How Costly Is It for Poor Farmers to Lift Themselves Out of Poverty?” Policy Research Working Paper 3881. World Poverty Alleviation through Reducing Distortions to Bank, Washington, D.C. Agricultural Incentives Hoekman, Bernard, and Marcelo Olarreaga, eds. 2007. Global Trade and Poor Nations. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Press. Since a large proportion of the world’s poor live in farm Isik-Dikmeli, Aylin. 2006. “Trade Reforms and Welfare in Viet- households in the poorest countries, improved understand- nam: An Ex-post Decomposition of Welfare in Vietnam.” ing of the effects of government distortions to agricultural Policy Research Working Paper 4049. World Bank, Washing- incentives would be useful for more-informed policy debate. ton, D.C. This research project seeks to increase understanding of the Krivonos, Ekaterina, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. “Sugar Pric- ways in which trade-related policies distort the prices faced es, Labor Income and Poverty in Brazil.” Policy Research by farmers in poor countries. Working Paper 3874. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The project studies are using computable general equilibrium modeling and micro simulation to estimate the dis- Export Crops, Marketing Costs, and Poverty tortions to farmer and consumer food prices. The project is collecting data and analyzing around two-thirds of farm The objective of this project was fi rst to establish whether products in more than 50 developing countries (nearly half of households that produce export crops (like cotton, tea, or them low-income countries) plus 20 industrial countries. To- coffee) are richer, on average, than households specialized gether these countries account for about 90 percent of global in subsistence agriculture. Second, the project explored one agriculture. The data cover up to 50 years. explanation for this fi nding: marketing costs matter. Indeed, From the project fi ndings so far, agricultural protection districts with lower marketing costs foster export cropping rates have been rising with per capita income; those rates are and this in turn leads to lower poverty. higher the lower the agricultural comparative advantage of a Farmers, especially the poorest, may not benefi t from en- country. Anti-agricultural bias on average has almost disap- hanced export opportunities (like those generated by the peared in East Asia, at least. However, the anti-trade bias in Doha Development Agenda) if complementary factors are agricultural policies remains, and the standard deviation is missing. Based on parametric and non-parametric economet- still very high, suggesting that much would be gained in im- ric analysis of household surveys produced by the Uganda proved resource allocation and greater agricultural productiv- Bureau of Statistics, the project identifi ed some of these ity growth if further reforms were to follow. complementary factors, like transport costs and market ac- The fi rst stage of the project is generating several papers cess for inputs and outputs. and a price distortions database. These will be key inputs in The fi ndings showed that districts with higher marketing the second stage, which will analyze in much more depth, costs tended to be poorer. One reason behind this fact was including through cross-country comparisons, the economic that when marketing costs were high, export crop partici- effects of alternative policies and the political economy rea- pation was low. Because export crops are high-return crops, sons behind those policy choices. Lessons and policy impli- an improvement in marketing costs led to lower poverty in cations from the analyses will be drawn out for various types rural Uganda. of International Development Association countries. The project contributed to the Uganda Country Econom- The methodology has been placed on the project’s Web ic Memorandum. site (www.worldbank.org/agdistortions). Project results have Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— been presented at the Global Trade Analysis Project Confer- Guido Porto ([email protected]). With Jorge Balat, Yale ence, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (June 2007). University; Mariano Negri, World Bank; and Ethel Fonseca, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Rutgers University. Kym Anderson ([email protected]) and Will Martin. Project Code: P0100061. Project Code: P093895. Completion date: June 2007. Completion date: June 2008.

123 Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives principal rationale for these mechanisms is that they provide an escape valve that a government can use to accommodate This project investigated the ways in which trade-related and at the same time isolate powerful domestic interests that policies have distorted the prices faced by farmers in Uganda might otherwise set back an entire liberalization program. and Tanzania. Because a large proportion of the poor reside in In recent decades, developing countries have signifi cantly farm households in these countries, improved understanding reduced the number and intensity of trade restrictions they of the effects of distortions on agricultural incentives would impose, yet since the Uruguay Round they have increas- lead to a more-informed policy debate. ingly taken safeguard and anti-dumping actions to restrict The research built on an earlier study using a much larger imports. This juxtaposition of facts raises an obvious ques- sample of countries, more-sophisticated computable general tion: Is increasing use of these instruments by developing equilibrium (CGE) modeling and micro simulation to esti- countries and their continuing use by industrial countries mate effects, and more-advanced political economy theo- part of a momentum toward liberalization or part of a reversal ry. The methodology was placed on the project’s Web site toward protection? (www.worldbank.org/agdistortions) so as to attract external This research project aimed to identify the problems that comments. Data on prices and quantities were gathered from developing countries have attempted to manage with safe- offi cial national sources by each country’s consultants. guard and anti-dumping actions and the resources that their The anti-agriculture bias on average has been reduced in policy managers have available to execute their responsibili- those countries; the anti-trade bias in agricultural policies re- ties. The focus was on learning how policy managers have mains. The standard deviation is still very high, suggesting incorporated these instruments into their systems for manag- improved resource allocation and higher agricultural producing trade policy in ways that have been supportive of a coun- tivity growth could result if further reforms were to follow. try’s overall liberalization objectives rather than a reversal The fi ndings were presented at the Africa Economics of them. Conference, Oxford University (March 2007). The research examined how the use of these instruments The project outputs include two country case studies that has contributed to maintaining a dynamic toward openness analyze the changing extent, effects, and political economy to international trade. Where the instruments have caused reasons behind distortions in agricultural incentives faced problems, it looked at how developing country policy man- by farmers. Specifi cally, the case studies estimate the distor- agers have dealt with the problems. It also investigated tions in farm and consumer food prices for around two-thirds where the instruments have been overtly used for proof farm products in those developing countries. The work- tection or for strengthening monopolistic positions in the ing papers are available on the project’s Web site and will domestic economy. be published in a book. These and similar papers for other The research was carried out by developing country ana- countries, together with the price distortions database gener- lysts working with high-level policy managers in Argentina, ated as part of the fi rst stage of the project, will be key inputs Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru to help them into stage 2, which will provide a deeper analysis and cross- clarify and systematize their experiences. A major objective country comparisons. was to bring policy managers who had documented and sys- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— tematized their experiences in contact with policy managers Kym Anderson ([email protected]). With Alan Mat- in other countries who may have been undertaking similar thews, Trinity College; and Oliver Morrissey, University of institutional reforms. Nottingham. Preliminary results were presented at a workshop Project Code: P095611, PO100301. for African trade offi cials in Stellenbosch, South Africa Completion date: June 2007. (October 2004). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Anti-dumping and Safeguard Actions by Developing Beata Javorcik ([email protected]). With Joseph M. Countries Finger and Jorge G. Gonzalez, Trinity University, San Anto- nio, Texas; Elias A. Baracat, Universidad Nacional de Cór- Provisions allowing import restrictions such as safeguard and doba, Argentina; Julio Berlinski, Universidad Di Tella, Ar- anti-dumping actions were included in the General Agree- gentina; Chad P. Bown, Brandeis University; Honorio Kume, ment on Tariffs and Trade to help preserve the momentum Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brazil; Ricardo toward liberalization created by agreed tariff reductions. The Monge-Gonzalez, Costa Rican High-Technology Advisory

124 Committee Foundation; Julio Nogues, Universidad Di Tel- Economic Analysis of Regional Poverty Issues Using la and Universidad del CEMA, Argentina; Mauricio Reina, Computable General Equilibrium Modeling Foundation for Higher Education and Development, Co- lombia; Juan S. Saez; Pablo A. Sued, Centro de Estudios de The objective of this project in fi scal year 2007 was to add Estado y Sociedad; and Richard Webb-Malaga, Webb and Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan to the Global Trade Analy- Associates. sis Project (GTAP) database. Adding these countries to the Project Code: P085090. GTAP database enabled researchers around the world to eas- Completion date: December 2004. ily conduct trade policy analysis, including regional arrangement analysis on these countries. Publications The methodology of the project was to start with what- Finger, J. Michael, and Julio J. Nogués, eds. 2005a. Safeguards ever input-output table was available. That was insuffi cient- and Antidumping in Latin American Liberalization: Fight- ly disaggregated for the GTAP database. The project then ing Fire with Fire. Washington, D.C.: World Bank/Palgrave. gathered data on output or value added, exports and imports, http://ebooks.ebookmall.com/ebook/220050-ebook.htm. and fi nal demand for additional sectors from other sources. ———. 2005b. Salvaguardias y Antidumping en la Liberalización It then imposed intermediate demand requirements based Comercial de América Latina: Combatiendo el Fuego con Fuego. on the most appropriate representative country input-output Buenos Aires: Siglo XXI. table for the sectors that were disaggregated. The GTAP Web site provides details of what is required for an accept- Safeguards and Antidumping in Latin American Trade able submission that would allow GTAP to add the country Liberalization to the database. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— This project disseminated the fi ndings of research publica- Kym Anderson ([email protected]). With Jesper tions. It analyzed country case studies and shared country ex- Jensen, Teca Training. periences in managing instruments of contingent protection Project Code: P095120. to support overall trade liberalization. Completion date: June 2008. The project assembled the fi rst set of detailed case studies of developing country experience; existing literature focused Evasion of Import Tariffs only on OECD nations. The results illustrated that judicious use of anti-dumping An emerging literature has demonstrated some unique char- and safeguards could be helpful in maintaining an open trade acteristics of trade in differentiated products. This project regime. The fi ndings also showed that there was substantial contributed to the literature by postulating that differenti- value in World Trade Organization consistent design of in- ated products may be subject to greater tariff evasion due struments as a mechanism to control pressure for protection, to the diffi culties associated with assessing their quality but that this in itself was not suffi cient to ensure benefi cial and price. outcomes. The study pointed to the importance of strong Using product-level data on trade between Germany and leadership and national management of the process that con- ten Eastern European countries during 1992-2003, the study siders the national interest. showed that the trade gap, defi ned as the discrepancy be- The project fi ndings were presented at a workshop in Ge- tween the value of exports reported by Germany and the neva (2006). value of imports from Germany reported by the importing Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— country, was positively related to the level of tariff in eight Bernard Hoekman ([email protected]). With J. Mi- of the ten countries. Further, the results showed that the re- chael Finger and Julio Nogues. sponsiveness of the trade gap to the tariff level was greater for Project Code: P099807. differentiated products than for homogenous goods. A 1-per- Completion date: June 2006. centage-point increase in the tariff rate was associated with a 0.6 percent increase in the trade gap in the case of homoge- Publication nous products and a 2.1 percent increase in the case of differ- Finger, J. Michael, and Julio Nogues, eds. 2006. Safeguards and entiated products. Finally, the data indicated that the greater Antidumping in Latin American Trade Liberalization. New York, tariff evasion observed for differentiated products tended to NY: Palgrave/McMillan. take place through misrepresentation of import prices.

125 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— worldbank.org), Claudia Nassif, Mariem Malouche, and Jose Beata Javorcik ([email protected]). With Gaia Nar- Calix Lopez. With Joey Ghaleb; Ricardo Faini, University of ciso, Jens Arnold, and Mariana Spatareanu. Rome; Anna Maria Ferragina, Istituto di Studi sulle Società Project Code: P082617. del Mediterraneo; and Bailey Klinger, J.F. Kennedy School Completion date: June 2006. of Government. Project Code: P099383. Publication Completion date: July 2007. Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska, and Gaia Narciso. 2007. “Differen- tiated Products and Evasion of Import Tariffs.” Policy Re- Latin America and the Caribbean Respond to China and search Working Paper 4123. World Bank, Washington, D.C. India

Export Diversiﬁ cation in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia This research project explored the response of Latin Ameri- and Morocco can policy-makers to growing imports from China and India in their markets. It found that sectors in which the share of The export structure of countries in the Middle East and imports from China was growing generally tended to have North Africa is highly concentrated. Recent empirical re- higher tariffs, controlling for reverse causality and industry, search shows that the characteristics of a country’s export year, and country effects. The reverse pattern was observed structure have signifi cant implications for export and eco- in sectors where India’s presence was growing. nomic growth. The objectives of this research project were to In order to explain this evidence, the project developed provide an in-depth analysis of the process of export diver- an extension to the Grossman and Helpman “protection for sifi cation in these economies, to discuss the main constraints sale” model to allow for imperfect substitution between do- and determinants of export diversifi cation, and to provide a mestically produced goods and goods imported from different policy framework as well as suggestions for how export pro- regions. The model suggested that as the elasticity of substi- motion policies could be improved to embrace the objective tution between domestically produced goods and imported of diversifi cation. The methodology combined statistical goods increased, the incentives to lobby also increased, and and descriptive and empirical analysis, as well as qualitative the resulting equilibrium tariff was higher. analysis based on collected international best practice and 23 The analysis was been carried out in two steps. First, it case studies of the emergence of new export activities. studied the substitutability of domestically produced goods There were three main fi ndings. First, the export struc- with imports from China, India, or the rest of the world. The ture in the countries was highly concentrated relative to their results showed that Chinese imports were on average closer income level and compared with other emerging economies. substitutes to goods domestically produced in Latin America Second, the primary prerequisite for export diversifi cation countries than goods originating in the rest of the world, while was an economic environment favorable to trade. And third, the opposite is true for goods originating in India. Next, the the emergence of new products and services was primarily analysis applied an extended protection for sale framework triggered by individual entrepreneurs who had a more mod- to the data. ern outlook on business and management practices and act- The project results showed that by ignoring the imper- ed on information they proactively acquired, mostly abroad. fect substitutability between imported and domestically pro- Successful entrepreneurs overcame uncertainties through duced goods, the previous literature obtained estimates for partnerships with other fi rms, subsidies to input suppliers, or the weight attached by the government to aggregate welfare public or private support. that were upward biased. The project showed that the diffusion process in countries Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— in the Middle East and North Africa was fairly fragmented. Marcelo Olarreaga ([email protected]). With Gio- Support through private intermediaries proved more effec- vanni Facchini, University of Illinois; Peri Silva, University tive in both search and diffusion than public support. of North Dakota; and Gerald Willmann, University of Kiel. The project fi ndings were used to propose a new policy Project Code: P101577. framework that integrates elements that give more weight to Completion date: June 2007. reducing the costs of entrepreneurial experimentation. Responsibility: Middle East and North Africa Region, Social and Publication Economic Development Group—Miria A. Pigato (Mpigato@ Facchini, Giovanni, Marcelo Olarreaga, Peri Silva, and Gerald

126 Willmann. 2007. “Substitutability and Protectionism: Latin nomic scale for trading partners. The results provided an es- America’s Trade Policy and Imports from China and India.” timate of trade fl ows in the inter-city network and simulation Policy Research Working Paper 4188. World Bank, Washing- of the impact of a major improvement in road network qual- ton, D.C. ity. The project explored the implications of the results for trade expansion at the regional, country, and city levels. The Measuring Real GDP and Trade Distortions project also estimated the costs of network improvement, using a World Bank database of upgrading and maintenance Cross-country comparisons of poverty reduction and econom- costs for Central Asian road projects. ic growth are a key part of the mandate of World Bank opera- The project fi ndings led to suggestions on approaches for tions and a major research topic in the literature. However, administering and maintaining an upgraded road network in satisfactory measures of real GDP, which form the founda- the region. Furthermore, the project highlighted the role of tion for the measurement of poverty reduction and economic regional cooperation and trade arrangements in the region growth, have not yet been developed. The most commonly in fostering expanded road networks to increase trade in used measures—from the UN National Accounts, the World the region. Development Indicators, and the Penn World Table—lack The project generated a new database of minimum dis- any theoretical justifi cation, especially when they are used to tance road routes connecting 138 cities in 27 countries across compare across countries. Europe and Central Asia. The project fi ndings showed that The fi rst objective of this research project was to devel- improved road network quality was robustly associated with op a theoretically sound measure of real GDP that could be greater intraregional trade fl ows. Gravity model simulations consistently compared across countries and across years. By suggested that an ambitious but feasible road upgrade could distinguishing between real GDP and real output, with the increase trade by 50 percent over baseline, exceeding the ex- former measuring the general well-being of a country and the pected gains from tariff reductions or trade facilitation pro- latter measuring the overall economic capability of the coun- grams of comparable ambition. Cross-country spillovers due try, the project measured the extent of distortions in produc- to overland transit were important: total intraregional trade tion and consumption due to various trade policies. could be increased by 30 percent by upgrading roads in just The project fi ndings will be used to develop appropriate three countries—Albania, Hungary, and Romania. methodology in terms of cross-country collection of GDP Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— measures corrected for purchasing power parity, and underly- John S. Wilson ([email protected]). With Ben Shep- ing trade restrictiveness. herd, Yoko Yamamoto, Matthew Niedzwiecki and Witold Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Czubala. Hiau Looi Kee ([email protected]). With Robert Feen- Project Code: P101457. stra, University of California at Davis, and Peter Neary, Uni- Completion date: June 2007. versity College Dublin. Project Code: P094655. Publications Completion date: June 2007. Shepherd, Ben, and John S. Wilson. 2006. “Road Infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia: Does Network Quality Affect Road Infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia: Does Trade?” Policy Research Working Paper 4104. World Bank, Network Quality Affect Trade? Washington, D.C. ———. 2006. “Road Infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia: This research project centered on the question of how much Does Network Quality Affect Trade?” Policy Research Work- difference an integrated, functional road network would ing Paper 4104. World Bank, Washington, D.C. make for development and trade prospects in the Europe and Central Asia region. The project analyzed potential benefi ts Trade and Capacity Building in Russian Speaking of new road networks for landlocked developing countries Countries in the region and poverty reduction prospects through trade expansion with upgraded roads. Good teaching materials in Russian on the economic devel- The analysis included estimations of a gravity model for opment aspects of trade policy and World Trade Organization Central Asia, using inter-country trade data, road transport accession are seriously lacking. To address this problem, this quality indicators, actual road distances, and estimates of eco- research project supported the production of course materi-

127 als on reform of both international trade policy and foreign The analysis was based on a standard gravity model of indirect investment. The World Bank Institute has developed ternational trade. The model was estimated using bilateral – and continues to further develop – these materials, which trade data from the Comtrade database (accessed via World are available on a bilingual Web site. Integrated Trade Solution software). Trade in parts and com- One set of materials came from the World Bank Institute ponents versus trade in fi nal goods was identifi ed using the course entitled “Trade Policy and WTO Accession for Devel- SITC Revision 2 classifi cation. opment in Russia and the CIS.” This two-week course was Preliminary results highlight the importance of parts and delivered in March-April 2005 and March 2006 in Moscow. components trade in the East Asia and Pacifi c region, under- Although the development of effective trade policy institu- scoring the rapid growth in transnational production networks tions is acknowledged as crucial to development, how to de- in sectors such as electronic goods. The results also show that velop good trade policy institutions is not often discussed. trade in parts and components (a proxy for network trade) is To begin to address this problem, the project supported a responsive to trade policy measures such as tariffs, as well seminar at the headquarters of the European Bank for Re- as broader trade facilitation measures such as export/import construction and Development, London (October 2006). costs, transport costs, contract enforceability, and services The seminar was called “Building Institutions for Evidence sector infrastructure. However, additional work is required to Based Trade Policy Decision-Making: International Experi- ensure the robustness of these results. ence and Russian Strategy.” Preliminary project results have been presented at the Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— European Trade Study Group meetings in Athens, Greece David Tarr ([email protected]). With Georgio Barba Na- (September 2007). varetti, Università degli Studi di Milano; Junichi Goto, Kobe Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— University; Ksenia Yudaeva, Center for Strategic Research; John S. Wilson ([email protected]). With Ben Shep- and Natalya Volchkova, Center for Economic and Financial herd, Matthias Helble, and Witold Czubala. Research. Project Code: P104431. References: P086587. Completion date: November 2007. Closing date: June 2007. Publication Publication Helble, Matthias, Ben Shepherd, and John S. Wilson. 2007. Tarr, David, ed. 2006. Trade Policy and WTO Accession for Develop- “Trade Costs and International Production Networks: Les- ment in Russia and the CIS. Moscow: Ves Mir Publishers. sons from the Asia-Pacific Experience.” World Bank, Wash- ington, D.C. Transnational Production Networks in East Asia and the Paciﬁ c Services Analysis, Modeling and Capacity-Building

The goal of this research project was to provide a quantitative, There is a widespread perception among many observers empirical assessment of the impact of different trade policy that the response to merchandise trade reform has been dis- and trade facilitation measures on the growth of transnational appointing in many low-income countries. In part this may production networks involving developing countries. A com- be because more needs to be done to reform policies at the plementary aim was to compare the sensitivity of trade fl ows national, regional, and multilateral levels. within networks to each of the different interventions. This research project is analyzing the impacts of service Previous research on transnational production networks sector liberalization and the role of different modes of sup- has largely focused on description, in particular identifi cation ply of services (especially foreign direct investment and of trade in parts and components—as a proxy for network cross-border trade); the interactions between service sector trade—using standard international trade classifi cations. reforms that lower services costs and trade in goods (export The approach in this project focused on the identifi cation competitiveness, patterns of trade); and the role of services of policy impacts on such trade fl ows, both in absolute and in adjusting to liberalization. The project is also constructing relative terms. Although recent work on trade facilitation has better measures of the welfare consequences of liberalization analyzed policy impacts on aggregate or sector trade fl ows, it of trade in goods and services. has not looked at the potential differences in impact as be- The project is developing a computable general equi- tween fi nal and intermediate goods. librium model that incorporates recent theoretical develop-

128 ments such as fi rm heterogeneity and that includes services were determined by the policy research question and thus and foreign direct investment, thereby allowing assessment have ranged from theoretical analysis motivated by stylized of the impacts of reforms in these areas. The project includes facts, to econometric analysis using panel data, to analysis of data collection on services policies in selected countries, and World Trade Organization rules and institutions using data estimation of the ad valorem equivalents of barriers in the on access commitments by countries. business services sectors. Much of the research has been used in the World Bank The project is focused on Africa, developing the model Institute course on Services Trade and International Nego- and data collection for Kenya and Tanzania or Senegal. tiations, fi rst delivered in Washington, D.C. (April 2004), and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— planned for publication by Oxford University Press as the Guido Porto ([email protected]). With Thomas Ru- Handbook of Services Trade. therford, ETH, Zurich; Edward Balestreri, Colorado School Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— of Mines; Jesper Jensen, Teca Training; Borislava Mircheva, Aaditya Mattoo ([email protected]). With Mohammad American University; and David Tarr. Amin, Jens Arnold, and Lucy Payton. Project Code: P0105190. Project Code: P083482. Completion date: June 2009. Completion date: March 2007.

Services Trade Policy Publications Amin, Mohammed, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2005. “Does Temporary This research project addressed a range of questions on im- Migration Have to Be Permanent?” Policy Research Work- proving services trade policy. It included a study on India ing Paper 3582. World Bank, Washington, D.C. that found that the more liberalized services sectors had fast- ———. 2006a. “Can Guest Worker Schemes Reduce Illegal er growth in both output and employment than other sectors. Immigration?” Policy Research Working Paper 3828. World Studies on the Czech Republic and Sub-Saharan Africa dem- Bank, Washington, D.C. onstrated that services reform contributed to the increased ———. 2006b. “Do Institutions Matter More for Servic- productivity of manufacturing fi rms. Research on telecom- es?” Policy Research Working Paper 4032. World Bank, munications reform in developing countries showed that Washington, D.C. both the combination and the sequence of policy reforms ———. 2007a. “Migration from Zambia: Ensuring Temporari- matter: a comprehensive reform program, involving privati- ness through Cooperation.” Policy Research Working Paper zation and competition and the support of an independent 4145. World Bank, Washington, D.C. regulator, produced the largest gains, and performance was ———. 2007b. “The Role of Human Capital in the Changing better if competition was introduced at the same time as (or Structure of the Indian Economy.” Policy Research Working before) privatization. Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. A study on Zambia found that even in a least developed Arnold, Jens, Beata Javorcik, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2006. “The country, there are substantial benefi ts from reform of tele- Productivity Effects of Services Liberalization: Evidence communications, transport, fi nancial, and tourism services. from the Czech Republic.” Policy Research Working Paper But past liberalization in weak and inappropriate regulatory 4109. World Bank, Washington, D.C. contexts led to perverse results and undermined the case for Arnold, Jens, Gaia Narcisco, and Aaditya Mattoo. Forthcom- further reform. Moreover, the failure to design and imple- ing. “Services Inputs and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan ment effi cient policies to widen access to services could lead Africa: Evidence from Firm-level Data. Journal of African to a reversion to state capitalism and the use of ineffi cient Economies. instruments of “empowerment.” Studies on temporary mi- Belsky, Leah, Reidar Lie, Aaditya Mattoo, Ezekiel J. Emanuel, gration demonstrated the benefi ts from, and constraints to, and Gopal Sreenivasan. 2004. “The General Agreement on international cooperation on migration. Trade in Services: Implications for Health Policymakers.” The fi ndings helped build the case for policy reform in Health Affairs 23(3): 137–45. services (including trade liberalization), demonstrated the Chellaraj, Gnanaraj, Keith Maskus, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2006. importance of appropriate combinations and sequences of “Skilled Immigrants, Higher Education, and U.S. Innova- policy change, and aided in the design of better international tion.” In C. Ozden and M. Schiff, eds., International Migra- agreements on services. tion, Remittances and the Brain Drain. Palgrave Macmillan and In each study, the analytic approaches and data sources the World Bank.

129 ———. Forthcoming. “The Contribution of Skilled Immigra- Mattoo, Aaditya, and Lucy Payton. 2007. Services Trade for Zam- tion and International Graduate Students to U.S. Innova- bia’s Development. Washington, D.C.: Palgrave-Macmillan tion.” Review of International Economics. and World Bank. Eschenbach, Felix, and Bernard Hoekman. 2006a. “Services Mattoo, Aaditya, and Randeep Rathindran. 2006. “How Health Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Econo- Insurance Impedes Trade in Healthcare.” Health Affairs mies, 1990-2004.” Review of World Economics 142(4): 746-64. 25: 358-68. ———. 2006b. “Services Policies in Transition Economies: On Mattoo, Aaditya, Randeep Rathindran, and Arvind Subramanian. the EU and WTO as Commitment Mechanisms.” World 2006. “Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its Im- Trade Review 5(3): 415-43. pact on Economic Growth: An Illustration.” Journal of Eco- Fink, Carsten, Aaditya Mattoo, and Ileana Cristina Neagu. 2005. nomic Integration 21: 64-98. “Assessing the Impact of Communication Costs on Interna- Mattoo, Aaditya, Robert M. Stern, and Gianni Zanini. 2007. tional Trade.” Journal of International Economics 67: 428-45. Handbook of Services Trade. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Hoekman, Bernard. 2006. “Liberalizing Trade in Services: A Mattoo, Aaditya, and Sacha Wunsch. 2004. “Pre-Empting Pro- Survey.” Policy Research Working Paper 4030. World Bank, tectionism in Services: The WTO and Outsourcing.” Journal Washington, D.C. of International Economic Law 7: 765-800. Hoekman, Bernard, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2006. “International Trade: Multilateral Disciplines on Trade in Services.” In An- Standards, Regulatory Reform, and Trade Facilitation drew Guzman and Alan Sykes, eds., The Handbook of Interna- tional Economic Law. University of Chicago Press. The relationship between technical regulations, voluntary ———. 2007. “Services, Economic Development and the Doha standards, and trade is at the forefront of research and policy Round: Exploiting the Comparative Advantage of the discussions. Issues such as the appropriate levels of protec- WTO.” In Donna Lee and Rorden Wilkinson, eds., The WTO tion for food safety and costs of testing and certifi cation reg- after Hong Kong. London: Routledge. ulations are of critical importance to developing countries. Mattoo, Aaditya. 2004. “Regional Agreements and Trade in Servic- This is especially true as tariffs decline and as developing es: Policy Issues.” Journal of Economic Integration 19: 742-79. countries seek to strengthen industrial performance, increase ———. 2005. “Services in a Development Round: Three Goals agricultural production, and expand export opportunities. and Three Proposals.” Journal of World Trade 39: 1223-38. This research project addressed questions as to how stan- (Shorter version published as “Services in a Development dards and technical regulations could affect the exports of Round: Proposals for Overcoming Inertia.” In Richard New- developing countries, and how multilateral policies should farmer, ed., Trade, Doha, and Development: A Window into the be formulated in reference to the international standards. Issues. Washington, D.C.: World Bank (2006). The project compiled existing data and new data sets, Mattoo, Aaditya, Carsten Fink, and others. 2004. “Brazil’s including the World Bank Technical Barriers to Trade data Services Trade and International Trade Negotiations.” on standards and technical regulations. The survey was com- In World Bank, Brazil: Trade Policies to Improve Efficien- pleted in 15 countries. It included questions on cost struc- cy, Increase Growth, and Reduce Poverty. Report 24285-BR. tures, production and exports, impediments to domestic sales Washington, D.C. and exports, and whether operations conformed to regula- Mattoo, Aaditya, Deepak Mishra, and Anirudh Shingal. 2004. tions. As part of this work, more than 200 tables of statistical Sustaining India’s Services Revolution: Access to Foreign Mar- description were generated. The project provided a detailed kets, Domestic Reform, and International Negotiations. Washing- description of the contents of the database, by variable, as ton, D.C.: World Bank. well as an outline of possible empirical approaches to deploy- Mattoo, Aaditya, Ileana Cristina Neagu, and Caglar Ozden. ing the data in Bank analysis. The data are available at: http:// Forthcoming. “Brain Waste? Educated Immigrants in the US econ.worldbank.org/projects/trade_costs. Labor Market.” Journal of Development Economics. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Mattoo, Aaditya, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2004. “Reciprocity John S. Wilson ([email protected]), Kym Anderson, across Modes of Supply in the World Trade Organization: A and Tsunehiro Otsuki. With Keith Maskus, University of Negotiating Formula.” International Trade Journal 18: 1–22. Colorado; Maggie Chen, University of Colorado; Jeff Randall; Mattoo, Aaditya, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Kamal Saggi. 2004. and Hager Ben-Mahmoud. “Mode of Foreign Entry, Technology Transfer, and FDI Pol- Project Code: P083360 (extension of P070569). icy.” Journal of Development Economics 75: 95–111. Completion date: March 2007.

130 Publications The research also showed that complementary policies Bagai, Shweta, and John S. Wilson. 2006. “The Data Chase: What’s matter in the relationship between WTO trade reforms and Out There on Trade Costs and Non-tariff Barriers.” Policy Re- poverty. Although there may be gains from WTO agricultural search Working Paper 3899. World Bank, Washington, D.C. trade, these gains can be greatly enhanced by domestic com- Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang, Tsunehiro Otsuki, and John S. Wilson. plementary reforms that allow rural households to take full 2006. “Do Standards Matter for Export Success?” Policy Re- advantage of the new trading opportunities. search Working Paper 3809. World Bank, Washington, D.C. A key output of the project was the collection of over 100 Maskus, Keith, Tsunehiro Otsuki, and John S. Wilson. 2005. household surveys in all regions of the world. The data pro- “The Cost of Compliance with Product Standards for Firms cessing led to three sets of usable databases: i) individual in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study.” Policy Re- datasets (Mexico, Zambia, and Uganda); ii) regional datasets search Working Paper 3590. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (Latin America); and iii) world datasets (30 countries). Spencer, Henson, and John S. Wilson, eds. 2005. The WTO and The project fi ndings were presented at the Latin America Technical Barriers to Trade. Edward Elgar. and Caribbean Economic Association meetings in Costa Rica Wilson, John S., Xubei Luo, and Harry G. Broadman. 2006. “En- (2004), and in Paris (2005). tering the Union: European Accession and Trade Facilita- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade—Guido tion Priorities.” Policy Research Working Paper 3832. World Porto ([email protected]). Bank, Washington, D.C. Project Code: P089214. Wilson, Johns S., Catherine L. Mann, and Tsunehiro Otsuki. Completion date: June 2005. 2005. “Assessing the Benefits of Trade Facilitation: A Global Perspective.” The World Economy 28(6, June): 841-71. Publications Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2004. “Trade Facilitation Balat, Jorge, Irene Brambilla, and Guido Porto. 2005. “An Analysis of and Regional Integration in South Asia: Accelerating the the WTO Development Round on Poverty in Rural an Urban Gains to Trade with Capacity Building.” World Bank - Inter- Zambia.” In B. Hoekman and M. Olarreaga, eds. Global Trade national Monetary Fund 2004 Annual Meetings Publication, and Poor Nations. Brookings Press and Yale University Press. Program of Seminars, Washington, D.C. Gasparini, Leonardo, Federico Gutierrez, A. Tamola, L. Torn- ———. 2006. “Cutting Trade Costs and Improved Business Fa- arolli, and Guido Porto. 2004. “Finance and Credit Variables cilitation in South Asia: Estimating the Benefits of Reform.” in Household Surveys of Developing Countries.” World South Asia Growth and Regional Integration, December 2006, Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. World Bank. Porto, Guido. 2005. “Estimating Household Responses to Trade Reforms. Net Consumers and Net Producers in Rural Mex- World Trade Organization Agricultural Trade Reforms ico.” Policy Research Working Paper 3695. World Bank, and Their Impact on Poverty: Consumption and Income Washington, D.C. Effects Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Trade Reform under The objective of this research project was to better under- the Doha Development Agenda stand how the World Trade Organization Doha Round negotiations, particularly in terms of agricultural reforms, have Agriculture emerged as the key issue in World Trade Or- affected poor households in developing countries. ganization negotiations following the Cancún ministerial The project showed that it is important to model, and to meeting, particularly in the negotiations leading up to the estimate with household data, how consumers and producers framework agreement reached on August 1, 2004. This will react to the price changes eventually brought about by framework changed the landscape by introducing such key WTO negotiations. In particular, the research showed that concepts as the tiered formula and formalizing agreement on the concept that net consumers would benefi t from price de- the inclusion of sensitive and special products. This frame- clines while net producers would benefi t from price increases work was extended slightly at the Hong Kong Ministerial, may be misleading when households are allowed to respond but huge differences remain on issues such as domestic sup- to new incentives. Consumers would adjust consumption and port in the industrial countries; the nature of the tariff-cut- producers would adjust production and/or labor when prices ting formula; tariff-rate-quota expansion; and the sensitive changed, so that the net position of a household would be- and special product exceptions sought by industrial and come endogenous to the WTO scenarios being considered. developing countries.

131 This research project draws heavily on the MacMaps ing the Welfare Impacts.” In D. Lippoldt, ed. Trading Up: data set developed by the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et Economic Perspectives on Development Issues in the Multilateral d’Informations Internationales (CEPII) and the International Trading System. Paris: OECD. Trade Centre, and the database on tariff bindings developed ______. 2007. “Agricultural Tariff and Subsidy Cuts in the Doha by CEPII. These databases include the all-important specif- Round.” In L. Crump and S.J. Maswood, eds. Developing ic tariffs in agriculture and the impacts of tariff preferences. Countries and Global Trade Negotiations. London: Routledge. The study conducts tariff analyses using data at a fi ne level of ______. Forthcoming. “Agricultural and NAMA Reform under disaggregation and only then aggregates up to changes that Doha: Implications for Asia-Pacific Economies.” Pacific Eco- can be input into quantitative models. The negotiations on nomic Review 12(3). agricultural and non-agricultural trade liberalization have be- Anderson, K., W. Martin, and D. van der Mensbrugghe. 2006a. come strongly intertwined, as they are at the analytical level, “Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets so the project will cover both aspects of the negotiations. and Incomes.” Review of Agricultural Economics 28(2): 168-94. The detailed analyses undertaken in this project, reported ______. 2006b. “Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What’s at in a widely cited book and a large number of journal arti- Stake for Developing Countries?” Policy Research Working cles and books, were widely disseminated through the Web, Paper 3848. World Bank, Washington, D.C. publications, and presentations by team members on all con- Anderson, Kym, William J. Martin, and Ernesto Valenzuela. 2006. tinents. The work appears to have been very infl uential in “The Relative Importance of Global Agricultural Subsidies the negotiations. and Market Access.” World Trade Review 5(3): 1-23. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Anderson, Kym, and John D. Nash. 2006. “Trade Reform and the Will Martin ([email protected]), Kym Anderson, and Doha Development Agenda.” In Vinay Kumar Bhargava, ed. Bernard Hoekman; Development Prospects Group—Do- Global Issues for Global Citizens: An Introduction to Key Devel- minique van der Mensbrugghe; and Agriculture and Rural opment Challenges. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Development Department. With Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla; Lio- Anderson, Kym, and C. Nielsen. 2004. “Economic Effects of Ag- nel Fontagne, Sebastien Jean and David Laborde, CEPII, ricultural Biotechnology Research in the Presence of Price- France; Harry de Gorter, Cornell University; André Nassar, Distorting Policies.” Economic Integration 19(2): 374-94. ICONE, Brazil; Thomas Hertel and Roman Keeney, Purdue Anderson, Kym, and Ernesto Valenzuela. 2006. “Do Global University; Hans Jensen; and David Orden, International Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farm- Food Policy Research Institute . ers?” Policy Research Working Paper 3901. World Bank, Project Code: P083210. Washington, D.C. Completion date: March 2009. ______. Forthcoming. “The World Trade Organization’s Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues.” The World Economy. Publications Anderson, Kym, Ernesto Valenzuela, and Lee Jackson. 2006. “Re- Anderson, Kym. 2005a. “Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty cent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modifi ed Cot- Reduction in Developing Countries.” In S. Jayasuriya, ed., ton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts.” Policy Re- Trade Policy Reforms and Development - Essays in Honour of search Working Paper 3917. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Peter Lloyd, Volume II. London: Edward Elgar. Francois, Joseph, William J. Martin, and Vlad Manole. 2006. ______. 2005b. “On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotia- “Formula Approaches to Liberalizing Trade in Goods: Ef- tions.” The Economic Record 81(4). ficiency and Market Access Considerations.” In Simon J. ______. 2006. “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Evenett and Bernard Hoekman, eds. Economic Development Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.” American Journal of Agricul- and Multilateral Trade Cooperation. New York: Palgrave Mac- tural Economics 88(5): 1135-46. millan and World Bank. Anderson, Kym, Harry de Gorter, and William J. Martin. 2006. Martin, William J. 2004. “L’adhésion à l’OMC et les réformes “Market Access Barriers in Agriculture and Options for Re- économiques en Chine.” Politique Etrantrangere 69(2): 331-46. form.” In Richard Newfarmer, ed., Trade, Doha, and Develop- ______. 2005. “Greater Market Access in Agriculture Is the Key ment. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. to Doha Success.” Intereconomics: Review of European Eco- Anderson, Kym, and William J. Martin. 2005. “Agricultural Trade nomic Policy 40(6): 308-11. Reform and the Doha Development Agenda.” World Economy Martin, Will, and Kym Anderson, eds. 2006a. Agricultural Trade 28(9): 1301-27; and Policy Research Working Paper 3607. Reform and the Doha Development Agenda. Washington, D.C.: ______. 2006. “Global Merchandise Trade Reform: Disaggregat- World Bank.

132 ______. 2006b. “The Doha Agenda and Agricultural Trade Re- would adjust production and/or labor if prices changed. As a form: The Role of Economic Analysis.” Plenary paper at the result, the net position of a household was endogenous to the International Association of Agricultural Economists Con- WTO scenarios considered. ference, Broadbeach. The research also showed that complementary policies ______. 2006c. “The Doha Agenda Negotiations on Agriculture: matter in the relationship between WTO trade reforms and What Could They Deliver?” American Journal of Agricultural poverty. The gains from WTO agricultural trade could be Economics 88(5): 1211-18. greatly enhanced by domestic complementary reforms that ______. 2007. “Exploding a Myth about Agricultural allow rural households to take full advantage of the new trad- Subsidies?” Bridges. ing opportunities. Martin, William J., Kym Anderson, and Dominique van der The ideas explored in this project were part of the core Mensbrugghe. 2006. “Global Trade Reform and the Doha issues discussed in the sixth annual meeting of the Global Agenda.” In P. van Dijck and G. Faber, eds. Develop- Development Network (GDN). The main objective of the ing Countries and the Doha Development Agenda of the WTO. meeting was to examine the interdependence between poli- London: Routledge. cies of developed & developing countries, with a focus on Martin, William J., and Joseph Francois. 2004. “Commercial Pol- poverty. Outputs from this KCP project were a critical com- icy, Bindings and Market Access.” European Economic Review ponent of one of the main sessions of the meeting, which 48(2): 665-79. the team helped organize. Findings were presented in the Martin, William J., and Maros Ivanic. 2006. “Market Access for LACEA meetings of Costa Rica, 2004, and Paris, 2005. Aca- Nonagricultural Goods: In Search of a Formula.” In Richard demic seminars were also delivered. The ideas born out of Newfarmer, ed. Trade, Doha and Development. Washington, this project are increasingly being used in World Bank re- D.C.: World Bank. ports, mainly in Zambia, Uganda, and Rwanda Diagnostic Martin, William J., and Patrick Messerlin. 2007. “Why Is It So Trade Integration Study and Malawi Poverty Assessment. Difficult? Trade Liberalization under the Doha Agenda.” A key output of this project is the search of data and docu- Oxford Review of Economic Policy. mentation: the team gathered more than 100 household surveys in all regions of the world. The data processing led to Agricultural WTO Trade Reforms and Their Impact on three sets of usable databases: i) individual datasets (Mexico, Poverty: Consumption and Income Effects Zambia, Uganda); ii) regional datasets (Latin America); iii) World datasets (60 surveys from 30 countries). Several papers The objective of this project was to better understand how and other outputs have been produced out of these datasets. the World Trade Organization’s Doha Round negotiations, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade, Guido particularly in terms of agricultural reforms, have affected Porto [email protected]. poor households in developing countries. The outputs of Project Code: P089214. the project could be used to help inform global negotiations Completion date: June 2005. on agricultural trade reforms, and to help developing countries design agricultural reform programs in a way that might Publications mitigate negative effects on the poor while boosting positive Balat, Jorge, Irene Brambilla, and Guido Porto. 2005. “An Analy- effects. The research highlights the importance of stakehold- sis of the WTO Development Round on Poverty in Rural ers investigating carefully how consumers and producers an Urban Zambia.” In B. Hoekman and M. Olarreaga, eds., will respond to Doha and develop feasible, complementary Global Trade and Poor Nations. Brookings Press and Yale Uni- policies related to credit, fi nance, infrastructure, knowledge, versity Press. and health. Gasparini, Leonardo, Federico Gutierrez, A. Tamola, L. Torn- The project used household data to estimate how con- arolli, and Guido Porto. 2004. “Finance and Credit Variables sumers and producers would react to price changes eventu- in Household Surveys of Developing Countries.” World ally brought about by WTO negotiations. In particular, the Bank, Washington D.C. Mimeo. research showed that the concept that net consumers would Porto, Guido. 2005. “Estimating Household Responses to Trade benefi t from price declines while net producers would ben- Reforms. Net Consumers and Net Producers in Rural Mex- efi t from price increases could be misleading when house- ico.” Policy Research Working Paper 3695. World Bank, holds are allowed to respond to new incentives. This is Washington D.C. because consumers will adjust consumption and producers

133 Developing Countries and World Trade Organization Dispute Settlement Marcelo Olarreaga ([email protected]), Bernard Hoekman, Hiau Looi Kee, and Francis Ng. This research project constructed a database of World Trade Project Code: PO94653. Organization disputes in order to assess the functioning of Completion date: June 2006. the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism. The project mapped the World Trade Organization Publications documents into a database that was complemented by eco- Hoekman, Bernard, and Francis Ng. 2007a. “The Impact of Agri- nomic information (product codes, etc.). cultural Support Policies on Developing Countries.” In Alex The data are publicly available; a descriptive paper docu- McCalla and John Nash, eds. Reforming Agricultural Trade for ments what is in the database and the pattern of cases. “The Developing Countries. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. WTO Dispute Settlement Data Set” is posted at Trade pro- ———. 2007b. “Reducing Agricultural Tariffs or Domestic gram of the Research Website. Support: Which Is More Important for Developing Coun- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— tries?” In Alex McCalla and John Nash, eds. Reforming Ag- Bernard Hoekman ([email protected]). With Petros ricultural Trade for Developing Countries. Washington, D.C.: Mavroidis and Henrik Horn. World Bank. Project Code: P086834. Hoekman, Bernard, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. “Global Trade Completion date: June 2005. Liberalization and Poor Countries.” In Studies in Trade and Development: Delivering on the WTO Round. New York: Unit- Publications ed Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Bown, Chad. 2005. “Participation in WTO Dispute Settlement: the Pacific. Complainants, Interested Parties and Free Riders.” World ———. 2007. “The Challenges to Reducing Poverty through Bank Economic Review 19(2): 287-310. Trade Reforms.” In Bernard Hoekman and Marcelo Olar- Bown, Chad, and Bernard Hoekman. 2005. “WTO Dispute reaga, eds. Global Trade and Poor Nations. Washington, Settlement and the Missing Developing Country Cases: En- D.C.: Brookings. gaging the Private Sector.” Journal of International Economic Kee, Hiau Looi, Alessandro Nicita, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2007. Law 8(4):861-90. “Estimating the Effects of Global Trade Reform.” In Ber- Horn, Henrik, and Petros Mavroidis. 2005. “Manual for the nard Hoekman and Marcelo Olarreaga, eds. Global Trade and WTO Dispute Settlement Data Set, 1995-2004.” Poor Nations. Washington, D.C.: Brookings. Laborde, Gustavo. 2004. “Time for a balance: ten years of Ar- Olarreaga, Marcelo. 2006. “Market Access or Subsidies?” Insights gentina in the WTO.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. #59. Institute of Development Studies, University of Sus- sex, Brighton. Doha and Poverty in Low-Income Countries Perry, Guillermo, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2007. “Trade Liberal- ization, Inequality and Poverty Reduction in Latin Ameri- The objective of this research project was to better un- ca.” In Francois Bourguignon and Boris Pleskovic, eds. Be- derstand the impact of the Doha Round on poverty in the yond Transition. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. poorest countries. The project complemented the research project on Agricultural Trade Reforms and Their Impact on Doha, Trade and Poverty Rural Poverty (PO02134). The results highlighted the importance of agricultural The Doha Development Agenda is an ambitious attempt to reforms for rural poverty, suggesting that the Doha Round use trade to promote development, but little has been done should focus on reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers (for to ensure that the negotiations will actually promote devel- example, sanitary and phytosanitary measures), rather than opment. The objective of this research project was to help providing agricultural domestic support, if it wants to achieve identify ways in which the negotiations might be given a its development objectives. The results also stressed the stronger orientation on development and poverty reduction. importance of complementary reforms for the multilateral The study analyzed the consequences of changes in tariffs round to reach the poorest segments of the population in and other policy instruments at a very detailed level. The low-income countries. project built these into estimates of the reforms at a more ag- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— gregated level that could be analyzed using computable gen-

134 eral equilibrium models, which were then used to analyze the Hertel, W., and L. Alan Winters, eds. 2006. Putting Development effects on economies. Finally, in order to form assessments of Back into the Doha Agenda: Poverty Impacts of a WTO Agreement. poverty impacts, the project evaluated the impacts of price Washington, D.C.: World Bank and Palgrave-Macmillan. and other changes on individual households. Subsequent re- Rutherford, Thomas, and David Tarr. 2006. “Russia’s WTO Ac- search building on these foundations has allowed investiga- cession: What Are the Macroeconomic, Sector, Labor Market tion of the distributional consequences of reforms. and Household Effects?” In David Tarr, ed., Trade Policy and Another element of the project focused on endogenous WTO Accession for Development in Russia and the CIS: A Hand- productivity effects. The researchers developed a comput- book. Moscow: Ves. [Russian] able general equilibrium comparative static model of the ———. 2007 “Regional Poverty Effects of Russian WTO Acces- Russian economy. The goal was to assess the impact of accession.” Mimeo. sion to the World Trade Organization on income distribution Rutherford, Thomas, David Tarr, and Oleksandr Shepotylo. and the poor. 2004a. “Impact of WTO Accession on Living Standards and A key fi nding was that greater agricultural liberalization Poverty.” In World Bank, World Bank Poverty Report for Rus- in developing countries creates larger reductions in poverty sia. Washington, D.C.: Word Bank. compared with policies that focus on defensive approaches. ———. 2004b. “Poverty Effects of Russia’s WTO Accession: The project also highlighted the country-specifi c nature of Modeling ‘Real’ Households and Endogenous Productivity the impacts on poverty in individual countries. This provided Effects.” Policy Research Working Paper 3473. World Bank, a basis for recommendations on ways to reduce poverty that Washington, D.C. would complement the impacts of trade reform. Recent work ———. 2006. “The Impact on Russia of WTO Accession and the on services trade liberalization points to large potential reduc- Doha Agenda: The Importance of Liberalization of Barriers tions in poverty from liberalization in key service sectors. against Foreign Direct Investment in Services for Growth The results of the research undertaken for this project and Poverty Reduction.” In Thomas Hertel and L. Alan were extensively disseminated in developed and develop- Winters, eds., Putting Development Back into the Doha Agenda: ing countries, and helped provide key decision-makers with Poverty Impacts of a WTO Agreement. New York, NY: Palgrave- more information and a more structured approach to analysis Macmillan and World Bank. of these key problems. The Hertel and Winters volume received the annual prize from the American Agricultural Eco- Effects for the Russian Federation of Accession to the nomics Association for Quality of Communication in 2007. World Trade Organization Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Will Martin ([email protected]), L. Alan Winters, Accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) could Guido Porto, Maros Ivanic, Alessandro Nicita, Dominique have signifi cant economic effects for the Russian Fed eration. van der Mensbrugghe, Jorge Balat, and M. Bussolo. With To help Russia recognize where reform and WTO commit- C. Arndt, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira-Filho, M. Hor- ments can be useful to its growth, development, and poverty ridge, M. Kuiper, F. Tongeren, J. Lay, Zhai Fan, A. Robilliard, reduction, this study estimated potential effects of WTO ac- S. Robinson, J. Cockburn, C. Ermini, C. Cororaton, Annabi cession on the Russian economy. Corong, Selilm Raihan, B. Decaluwe, T. Rutherford, and O. The work proceeded along several paths. One major av- Shepotylo. enue of research was the development of a computable gen- Project Code: P089139. eral equilibrium model built on household expenditure sur- Completion date: June 2007. veys, input-output tables, regional trade fl ow matrices, and estimates of ad valorem equivalents of non-tariff barriers to Publications foreign direct investment. The analysis assumed that WTO Hertel, T., Roman Keeney, Maros Ivanic, and L. Alan Winters. accession encompasses improved market access and reduc- 2007a. “Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms tions in tariffs and barriers against multinational service pro- in Rich and Poor Countries.” Economic Policy 50: 289-337. viders in Russia. The model incorporated productivity effects ———. 2007b. “Why Isn’t the Doha Development Agenda in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a More Poverty Friendly?” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Dixit-Stiglitz framework. The ad valorem equivalents of bar- Hertel, T., and L. A. Winters. 2006. “Estimating the Poverty riers to foreign direct investment were estimated based on Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agenda.” The detailed questionnaires completed by Russian research in- World Economy 28(8): 1057-71. stitutes. This methodology was developed initially for Rus-

135 sia; it was also to be applied in Ukraine and Kazakhstan by Publications June 2006. Jensen, Jesper, Thomas Rutherford, and David Tarr. 2006. Estimates suggest that Russia would gain about 7.2 per- “Telecommunications Reform within Russia’s Accession to cent of the value of Russian consumption in the medium run the WTO.” Eastern European Economics 44(1): 25-58. from WTO accession and up to 24 percent in the long run. ———. Forthcoming. “The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to The largest gains would come from reducing barriers against Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Rus- multinational service providers. Piecemeal and systematic sian Accession to the World Trade Organization.” Review of sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust. Development Economics. An analysis of household and poverty effects incorporated Rutherford, Thomas, and David Tarr. 2006. “Regional Impacts all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget of Russia’s Accession to the WTO.” Policy Research Work- Survey as real households in the model, using a new algo- ing Paper 4015. World Bank, Washington, D.C. rithm developed to solve general equi librium models with Rutherford, Thomas, David Tarr, and Oleksandr Shepotylo. 2005. a large number of agents. The results show that in the me- “The Impact on Russia of WTO Accession and the Doha dium term virtually all households would receive income Agenda: The Importance of Liberalization of Barriers against gains from WTO accession. In the short term, however, many Foreign Direct Investment in Services for Growth and Pov- households might lose because of the costs of transition. erty Reduction.” In Thomas Hertel and L. Alan Winters, eds., The estimates are decisively affected by the lowering of bar- Putting Development Back into the Doha Agenda: Poverty Impacts riers against foreign direct investment in business services of a WTO Agreement. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and endogenous productivity effects in business goods and ———. 2005. “Poverty Effects of Russia’s WTO Accession: services. Modeling ‘Real Households’ and Endogenous Productivity The fi ndings have been disseminated in Russia through Effects.” Policy Research Working Paper 3473. World Bank, the World Bank’s Russia Economic Report, an op ed in the Washington, D.C. Russian newspaper Russiskaya Gazeta, an article in the mag- Shepotylo, Oleksandr, and David Tarr. 2007. “The Structure of azine of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, and Import Tariffs in Russia, 2001-2005.” Policy Research Work- through participation in forums organized by the Ministry ing Paper 4265. World Bank, Washington, D.C. of Economic Development and Trade and the International Tarr, David. 2006. “Russian WTO Accession: An Assessment.” Labor Organization to discuss the modeling results on the ef- Eurasian Geography and Economics 47(4): 407-26. fect of WTO accession. The results have been disseminated Tarr, David, and Peter Thomson. 2004. “The Merits of Dual Pricing through a World Bank Institute course on trade policy and of Russian Natural Gas.” The World Economy. 27(8): 1173-94. WTO accession for development in Russia and the Com- monwealth of Independent States, a “training of trainers” Implementation of Obligations under World Trade course delivered in March-April 2005 and March 2006 in Organization Agreements Moscow, and in Central Asia in April 2006. An important paper in the policy discussions, which helped In international trade negotiations, governments have in- to resolve a major dispute in the accession negotiations, was creasingly committed themselves to making substantial “The Merits of Dual Pricing of Natural Gas,” by David Tarr changes in domestic regulations. These obligations require and Peter Thomson. In addition, the fi rst systematic analy- developing countries to make signifi cant investments in ad- sis of the Russian tariff structure, taking into account the ad ministrative capacity and market-supporting institutions. valorem equivalents of the specifi c tariffs, was completed by This project assessed the costs and benefi ts of imple- Shepotylo and Tarr. menting the domestic regulatory reforms mandated by inter- A Russian-English website has been developed to dis- national trade agreements. The project consisted of a series seminate this and related work (http://ww-w.worldbank .org/ of country case studies to document the scope and sequence trade/russia-wto). of the institutional reforms required for World Trade Organi- Responsibility: Development Research Group,Trade Team Da- zation agreements to yield economic benefi ts. The country vid Tarr ([email protected]). With Thomas Rutherford, studies focused on reforms in customs, technical standards, University of Colorado; Oleksandr Shepotylo, University of intellectual property rights protection, sanitary and phyto- Maryland; and Jesper Jensen of Teca Training. sanitary standards, industrial product standards, and regula- Project Code: P077509. tions affecting trade in services (such as telecommunications Comp1etion date: June 2005. and fi nancial services).

136 The project produced case studies on implementation the economy, trade, and poverty. The research is continuing costs in eight countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin beyond World Trade Organization accession in the develop- America. These studies documented a wide variation in de- ment of frameworks for evaluation of the poverty impacts veloping country governments’ approaches to trade-related of reforms, including through unilateral changes in policy domestic regulations. The case studies gathered information and participation in regional trade arrangements. Key policy from public sector budgets, international trade data, donor questions include an assessment of the extent of trade re- project documents, and interviews with public and private form associated with accession, estimation of the quantitative sector offi cials. implications of these reforms for the economy, and an assess- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— ment of the impacts at the household level. Beata Javorcik ([email protected]); and Poverty Re- The project draws on a sample of 80,000 households to duction and Economic Management Network Trade Team— form assessments of the implications of reform for income Philip Schuler. With Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias distribution and poverty. The analysis builds up from highly Sociales, Argentina; Cambodia Legal Resources Develop- detailed information on trade policy reforms. In agriculture, ment Center; Victor Abiola; Johnson Maiketsu, Botswana it has been necessary to measure the stance of trade poli- Institute for Development Policy Analysis; Flora Musonda, cies by comparing domestic and international prices, which Economic and Social Research Foundation, Tanzania; Walter have been used to create representative estimates of trade Odhiambo, Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and policies. These have then been applied to models of the Chi- Analysis; and Nichodemus Rudheranwa. nese economy to assess the impacts on the economy. Finally, Project Code: P082440. households have been subjected to the resulting price im- Completion date: December 2005. pacts in order to assess the consequences for households. Key fi ndings demonstrate the benefi ts to the Chinese Publications economy, and to China’s trading partners, of World Trade Or- Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (Flacso). 2004. ganization accession and highlight the vulnerability of a small “The Implementation of WTO Agreements: The Case of percentage of households to reductions in the prices of some Argentina.” Flacso, Argentina. goods, particularly cotton, maize, dairy products, and sugar. ———. 2005a. “The Implementation of WTO Agreements: The The research completed so far has heightened awareness Case of Cost Rica.” Flacso, Argentina. of the need for complementary actions to assist poor people ———. 2005b. “The Implementation of WTO Agreements: The in China—whether in conjunction with trade reforms or to Case of Peru.” Flacso, Argentina. offset the adjustment pressures on the incomes of the poor in Maiketso, Johnson Tsoro, and Magdeline Gabaraane. 2005. a fast-growing economy. “Implementation of WTO Agreements: Customs Reform Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— in Botswana.” Will Martin ([email protected]), Kym Anderson, Musonda, Flora, Charles M Ekelege, and Harvey N.N. Mwak- Deepak Bhattasali, Shaohua Chen, Bert Hofman, Aaditya ibinga. 2004. “WTO Implementation in African Countries: Mattoo, Min Zhao, and Martin Ravallion. With Zhai Fan, J. The Case of Tanzania.” Francois, Thomas Hertel, Jikun Huang, A. Husain, Shantong Ndzinge, Victoria. “Towards TRIPS Compliance: Implementa- Li, K. Maskus, P. Messerlin, D. Mrogowius, M. Pangestu, S. tion Costs for Botswana.” Rozelle, T. Sicular, S. Luo. Chen Xiwen, and Yaohui Zhao. Walter Odhiambo, Nicholas N. Waiyaki, and Hezron O. Nyan- Project Code: P055163. gito. 2005. “Implementation of the WTO Agreements on Completion date: 2008. Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and Technical Barriers of Trade in Africa: The Case of Kenya.” Publications Nichodemus Rudaheranwa. 2005. “Costs of complying with Anderson, Kym, Will Martin, and Ernesto Valenzuela. “Long WTO Agreement in Uganda.” Run Implications of WTO Accession for Agriculture in Chi- na.” Paper presented to the Summer Symposium of the In- World Trade Organization Accession, Policy Reform, and ternational Agriculture Trade Research Consortium, Beijing. Poverty Reduction in China July 8-10. www.iatrcweb.org. Bhattasali, Deepak, Li Shantong, and Will Martin, eds. 2004. The objective of this research project is to assess the implica- China and the WTO: WTO Accession, Policy Reform and Poverty tions of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization on Reduction. Oxford University Press and the World Bank.

137 Hertel, T., and Fan Zhai. 2004. “Labor Market Distortions, Rural- cies in 109 countries to examine the effects of investment urban Inequality, and the Opening of China’s Economy.” Policy promotion on FDI infl ows. The project’s empirical analysis Research Working Paper 3455. World Bank, Washington, D.C. follows two approaches. First, it tests whether sectors explic- Huang, Jikun. “Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in China.” itly targeted by investment promotion agencies receive more Paper presented to the Summer Symposium of the Interna- FDI in the post-targeting period relative to the pre-targeting tional Agriculture Trade Research Consortium, Center for Chi- period and non-target sectors. Second, it examines whether nese Agricultural Policy, Beijing. July 8-10. www.iatrcweb.org. the existence of an Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) is Zhai, Fan, and Thomas Hertel. 2006. “Impacts of the DDA on correlated with higher FDI infl ows. In the latter approach, China: The Role of Labor Markets and Complementary potential reverse causality between FDI infl ows and the Education Reforms.” In T. Hertel and L.A. Winters, eds. agency’s existence is addressed using instrumental variables. Poverty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda. The results show that investment promotion efforts ap- World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan. pear to increase FDI infl ows to developing countries. The agency’s characteristics, such as its legal status and reporting Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Reform and structure, affect the effectiveness of investment promotion. Poverty There is also evidence of FDI diversion due to investment incentives offered by other countries in the region. Adequate assessment of the effects on the poor of trade and Although a sizeable literature documents the importance foreign direct investment reforms requires better data. For of ethnic networks for international trade, little attention has example, a key data requirement for such analysis is the been devoted to studying the effects of networks on FDI. shares of capital, skilled labor, and unskilled labor used in The existence of ethnic networks may positively affect FDI various productive sectors. This information is notoriously by promoting information fl ows across international borders inaccurate in country input-output tables. and by serving as a contract enforcement mechanism. The This project applied econometric analysis to improve the project is investigating the link between the presence of mi- data that go into models used by the World Bank to analyze grants in the United States and U.S. FDI in the migrants’ the effects on the poor of trade and foreign direct investment countries of origin, taking into account potential endogene- reforms. One paper was produced estimating the shares of ity concerns. The results suggest that U.S. FDI abroad is value added that go to skilled labor, unskilled labor, and positively correlated with the presence of migrants from the capital in different sectors. The paper was submitted to the host country. The data further indicate that the relationship GTAP consortium for use in improving the factor intensity between FDI and migration is driven by the presence of mi- information in the widely used international trade database grants with a college education. known as GTAP. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade—David Beata Javorcik ([email protected]). With Torfi nn Tarr ([email protected]). With Space Design Bureau; and Harding (Statistics Norway) and Naotaka Sawada. Junichi Goto, Kobe University. Project Codes: P098750 and P098716. Project Code: P087609. Completion date: August 2008. Completion date: June 2005. Publications Publication Harding, Torfinn, and Beata Javorcik. “Developing Economies Goto, Junichi. 2005. “What Has Been Done Regarding Factor and International Investors: Do Investment Promotion Intensity Work on Services—A Survey.” Mimeo. Agencies Bring Them Together?” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. The Role of Investment Promotion Agencies in Harding, Torfinn, and Beata Javorcik. “Investment Promotion: Attracting Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Why, What and How: Lessons for Latin America and the Ca- Countries ribbean.” Report prepared for the Latin America and Carib- bean Region Department. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Many countries spend signifi cant resources on investment Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska, Caglar Ozden, and Mariana Spatar- promotion agencies in the hope of attracting infl ows of for- eanu. 2006. “Migrant Networks and Foreign Direct Invest- eign direct investment (FDI). This research project is using ment.” Policy Research Working Paper 4046. World Bank, newly collected data on national investment promotion agen- Washington, D.C.

138 Rules of Origin and Heterogeneity of Firms the only evidence in its support has been found for direct investment fl ows in the United States. This research project studied the effects of rules of origin for In examining this hypothesis in the context of developing fi rms with heterogeneous productivity and applied the analy- economies, the study contributed to the literature in four sis to Bangladeshi garment exports to the United States and ways: the European Union. The project showed that differences in • It examined the location decision for foreign direct trade polices in the United States and the European Union investment from multiple source countries into 25 de- in woven and non-woven garments generated differences veloping economies in Eastern Europe and the former in the composition of exporters and productivity in the two Soviet Union. markets. The analysis used a newly collected fi rm level data • It postulated that there may be features of developing set of Bangladeshi garment exporters to show that the facts countries that deter foreign direct investment but also matched the predictions of the model. are correlated with lax environmental protection. The project used a monopolistic competition model of • It took into account both the pollution intensity of the international trade. The fi ndings showed that rules of origin potential investor and the environmental stringency in affected both fi xed and variable costs of exporting if a fi rm the potential host country. complied with the rules of origin. As such only the more pro- • It used a unique fi rm-level data set that describes the ductive fi rms were able to satisfy the rules of origin and take investment decisions of 143 multinational fi rms in the advantage of the tariff preference in the European Union. 25 host countries studied. The analysis used a newly collected fi rm level data set. Despite these improvements in analytic approach, the study By exploring the differences in rules of origin in the Euro- found little support for the pollution haven hypothesis. pean Union and the United States, as well as production Another study looked at the effect of labor market fl ex- techniques in the woven and non-woven garment industries, ibility on foreign direct investment. This study tested em- the project showed that rules of origin are very important in pirically whether a host country’s labor market fl exibility, determining the export destination of fi rms with different in absolute terms or relative to that in the investor’s home levels of productivity. country, affected the location decisions of multinationals. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— The analysis used fi rm-level data on new investments un- Hiau Looi Kee ([email protected]). With Kala Krishna, dertaken in 1998–2001 in 19 Eastern and Western European Pennsylvania State University. countries. The study used a variety of proxies for labor mar- Project Code: P095496. ket regulations—refl ecting the fl exibility of individual and Completion date: November 2005. collective dismissals, the length of the notice period, and the required severance payment—along with controls for busi- Publications ness climate characteristics. Demidova, Svetlana, Hiau Looi Kee, and Kala Krishna. 2006. The results suggested that greater fl exibility (absolute or “Do Trade Policy Differences Induce Sorting? Theory and relative) in the host country’s labor market was associated Evidence from Bangladeshi Apparel Exporters.” NBER with larger infl ows of foreign direct investment. Working Paper 12725. The project fi ndings have been presented at the World Kee, Hiau Looi, and Kala Krishna. 2007. “Rules of Origins and Bank International Trade Seminar Series, the Empirical In- Trade Facilitation: On the Hidden Consequences of Prefer- vestigations in International Trade Conference at Purdue ences.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. University, the International Atlantic Economic Society Con- ference in Paris, the Yale University School of Management Environmental and Labor Market Regulation and Foreign Seminar Series, and the annual meetings of the American Direct Investment Economic Association in San Diego. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— This research project examined the regulatory determinants Beata Javorcik ([email protected]). With Shang-Jin of foreign direct investment. One study tested the “pollution Wei, Mariana Spatareanu, Reno Dewina, and Yi Wu. haven” hypothesis, the possibility that pollution-intensive Project Code: P076326. multinational fi rms relocate to developing countries with less Completion date: December 2004. stringent environmental regulations with the aim of maximizing profi t. Although this hypothesis seemed plausible,

139 Publications The results suggested that foreign ownership led to sig- Javorcik, Beata S., and Mariana Spatareanu. 2005. “Do Foreign nifi cant productivity improvements in the acquired plants. Investors Care about Labor Market Regulations?” Review of The improvements became visible in the acquisition year World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 141(3); Policy Re- and continued in subsequent periods. After three years, the search Working Paper 3275. World Bank, Washington, D.C. acquired plants outperformed the control group in terms of (2004); and CEPR Discussion Paper 4839. Centre for Eco- productivity by 34 percentage points. The data also suggest- nomic Policy Research, London (2005). ed that the rise in productivity was a result of restructuring, as Javorcik, Beata S., and Shang-Jin Wei. 2004. “Pollution Havens acquired plants increased investment outlays, employment, and Foreign Direct Investment: Dirty Secret or Popular and wages. Foreign ownership also appeared to enhance the Myth?” Contributions to Economic Analysis & Policy 3(2); integration of plants into the global economy through in- and in Don Fullerton, ed., The Economics of Pollution Havens. creased exports and imports. Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar (forthcoming); and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Policy Research Working Paper 2673. World Bank, Washing- Beata Javorcik ([email protected]). With Jens Arnold ton, D.C. (2001); and NBER Working Paper 8465. National and Torfi nn Harding. Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. (2001); and Project Code: P095560. CEPR Discussion Paper 2966. Centre for Economic Policy Completion date: June 2007. Research, London (2001). Publication Foreign Direct Investment and Labor Market Arnold, Jens, and Beata Javorcik. 2005. “Gifted Kids or Pushy Interactions Parents? Foreign Acquisitions and Plant Performance in In- donesia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3597. World Bank, This research project created a database on foreign di- Washington, D.C. . rect investment and trade in fi nancial services, and labor market outcomes. Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment through Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Vertical Relationships Maurice Schiff ([email protected]). With Joseph Fran- cois, Martine Rutten, and the Institute for International and Governments often favor joint ventures over fully-owned Development Economics. foreign direct investment (FDI) projects, believing that ac- Project Code: P094423. tive participation of local fi rms facilitates knowledge transfer. Completion date: June 2006. Leaving aside the issue of whether this perception is true, this research project tested whether differences in the mag- Publication nitude of horizontal and vertical spillovers from FDI were Hoffman, J., and J. Woerz. “Data on International Trade and associated with different extents of foreign ownership. FDI in Services.” Tinbergen Institute, Erasmus Universiteit Using an unbalanced panel of Romanian fi rms for 1998-2000, (Rotterdam). the analysis found evidence consistent with positive horizontal spillovers resulting from fully-owned foreign affi liates but Productivity and Employment Effects of Foreign not from projects with joint domestic and foreign ownership. Acquisitions This fi nding was in line with the literature, suggesting that foreign investors tended to put more resources into technol- This research project used micro data from the Indonesian ogy transfer to their wholly-owned projects than to joint ven- Census of Manufacturing to analyze the causal relation- tures. Further, the data indicated that the presence of partially ship between foreign ownership and plant productivity. To foreign-owned projects was correlated with higher produc- control for the possible endogeneity of the foreign direct tivity of domestic fi rms in upstream industries, suggesting investment decision, the analysis combined a difference- that domestic suppliers benefi ted from contacts with mul- in-differences approach with propensity score matching. An tinational customers. The opposite was true, however, in the advantage of this method, which had not been previously case of fully-owned foreign affi liates which appeared to have applied in this context, was the ability to follow the timing a negative effect on domestic fi rms in upstream industries. of observed changes in productivity and other aspects of These results were in line with the observation that for- plant performance. eign investors entering a host country through greenfi eld

140 projects would be less likely to source locally than those engaged in joint ventures or partial acquisitions. They were also consistent with the evidence suggesting that fully-owned foreign affi liates using newer or more sophisticated technologies than jointly owned projects may have had higher requirements vis-à-vis suppliers that only a handful of domestic fi rms, if any, were able to meet. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Beata Javorcik ([email protected]). With Mariana Spatareanu, Rutgers University. Project Code: P098213. Completion date: August 2007.

Publications Javorcik, Beata. 2006. “Technological Leadership and Foreign Investors’ Choice of Entry Mode.” In B. Hoekman and B. Javorcik, eds. Global Integration and Technology Transfer. Ox- ford University Press. ———. 2007. “Foreign Direct Investment and International Technology Transfer: What Do We Know? What Would We Like to Know?” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Javorcik, Beata, and Mariana Spatareanu. Forthcoming. “To Share or Not To Share: Does Local Participation Matter for Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment?” Journal of De- velopment Economics.

141 Macroeconomics and Growth; Investment Climate

Fiscal Policy and Growth Down Escalator: Public Investment and Fiscal Stability.” Policy Research Working Paper 4158. World Bank, Washing- This research project explores the effects on long-run ton, D.C. growth and the public sector solvency of alternative fi scal Servén, L. 2007. “Fiscal Discipline, Public Invest- policy designs, in terms of the volume and composition of ment and Growth.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. public expenditures. In particular, it focuses on fi nancing Unpublished manuscript. for public investment and the rules and targets constraining fi scal discretion. Firm Analysis and Competitiveness Survey Research Most previous research on fi scal policy in developing countries has focused on macroeconomic stabilization rather This research project collected survey data to examine a wide than long-term growth, and has not been concerned with the range of issues and hypotheses, including the impact of edu- composition and effi ciency of public spending. Moreover, cation on worker productivity, the impact of corruption on little attention has been paid to the role of fi scal targets and fi rm investment and productivity, and the sources of produc- rules in shaping fi scal policy outcomes. tivity differences more generally across fi rms and countries. This project research makes use of (i) structural dynamic The project developed a draft questionnaire and involved models, derived from fi rst principles, suitably specifi ed as to leading researchers in the design and implementation of the accommodate the effects of productive and unproductive surveys, which led to policy-relevant research. The project public expenditures and their fi nancing; and (ii) econometric developed a draft questionnaire and involved leading re- estimations, based on macroeconomic panel data, of empiri- searchers in the design and implementation of the surveys, cal equations characterizing the aggregate growth (or output) which led to policy-relevant research. The success demon- effects of public expenditures and/or public sector assets, strated by this project led to the expanded Investment Cli- controlling for other growth and output determinants. mate Enterprise Survey initiative. These surveys have sup- The project fi ndings show that public infrastructure invest- ported rich and diverse research, consistent with the range of ment has often borne the brunt of fi scal austerity across de- issues covered in the surveys. veloping regions. This tends to magnify the long-run growth The data underscore the importance of local governance— costs of the fi scal correction and detract from its success and there are tremendous differences in investment climates not sustainability. The fi ndings suggest that governments need just across countries, but within countries. For example, if a to pay attention to the long-term consequences of fi scal dis- location could improve the level of its investment climate cipline. That is, governments should increase their focus on to that achieved in Shanghai, the average productivity im- long-run measures of net worth and solvency, in addition to provements would be 18 percent for fi rms in Bangalore, 43 the cash defi cit and debt targets that currently are the exclu- percent for Dhaka, 78 percent for Calcutta, and 81 percent sive focus of fi scal programs. for Karachi. The research will offer new insights on the growth ef- The project included single country and cross-country sur- fects of alternative fi scal policy patterns and derive lessons veys and data analysis. One of the surveys led to the fi rst pan- for the design of growth-promoting fi scal policies consistent el data set estimates on a dynamic business growth equation with solvency. on a sample of small-scale manufacturers in India. Another Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomic study illustrated the link between cross-country differences and Growth Team—Luis Servén ([email protected]), in institutions and economic performance based on random Timothy Irwin (FEU), and Cesar Calderón (LCRCE). With samples of manufacturing businesses in China and India. William Easterly, New York University. Another study focused on export performance; it analyzed a Project Code: P101193. large cross-country sample of manufacturing establishments Completion date: June 2008. drawn from 188 cities. The fi ndings showed that average exports per establishment were smaller for African fi rms than Publications for businesses in other regions. A study examining the role of Easterly, W., T. Irwin, and L. Servén. 2007. “Walking Up the labor market functioning in economic performance used the

142 survey data to explore the relationships among labor regula- Yeung. 2006. “Understanding Chinese vs. Indian Economic tion, temporary employment, and on the job training data for Performance from Firm Level Data.” World Bank, Washing- 59 developing and transitional economies. ton, D.C. Processed. The Investment Climate work has led to numerous In- ———. 2005. “Investment Climate and Firm Performance in vestment Climate Assessments in countries including Cam- Developing Economies.” Economic Development and Cultural bodia, Ethiopia, India, Morocco, Pakistan, Serbia, and Tan- Change 54(1). zania. Findings from Investment Climate Surveys were Mengistae, Taye, and Catherine Pattillo. 2004. “Export Orien- incorporated in the Country Assistance Strategies of Algeria, tation and Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.” IMF Staff Cambodia, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Nepal, and Nigeria. Papers 51(2). Data have been disseminated on diskette and the project Web site, which is a state-of-the-art vehicle that allows so- The Investment Climate and the Micro Underpinnings of phisticated data manipulation while blocking access to indi- Growth vidual observations (essential for confi dentiality purposes). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconom- This research project looks at the micro determinants of ics and Growth Team—Luis Serven (lserven@worldbank. growth and the extent to which improvements in the invest- org), David Dollar, Ibrahim Elbadawi, Mary Hallward-Dri- ment climate can improve growth, investment, innovation, emeier, Maddalena Honorati, Guiseppe Iarossi, and Robert job creation, and exporting at the fi rm level. The aim is to Cull (DRGFI), Lixin Colin Xu, Taye Mengistae (DRGMG), measure the impact of different investment climate poli- Albert Zeufack (EASPR). cies, with particular attention to the distributional effects on Project Code: P063219. smaller fi rms, to help prioritize areas for reform. Completion date: July 2007. The World Bank’s Investment Climate Enterprise Sur- veys were launched in 2001 to collect and make available Publications detailed information on a broad range of investment climate Honorati, Maddalena, and Taye Mengisate. 2007. “Corruption, policies and fi rm performance. The surveys have generated Business Environment, and Small Business Fixed Invest- data on more than 70,000 fi rms in more than 100 countries. ment in India.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Processed. This research project draws on the Investment Climate ———. 2007. “Corruption, Business Environment, and Small Surveys, supplements the survey data, and, where possible, Business Growth in India.” World Bank, Washington, links the survey data to industrial census data to connect D.C. Processed. the micro dynamics to the aggregate performance of a coun- Dollar, David, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Taye Mengistae. try. For some countries, only a cross-section of information is 2007. “Investment Climate and International Integration in available. However, panel data are starting to come available Asian Developing Economies.” In Ernesto Zedillo, The Fu- and much of the work will focus on these data sets. ture of Globalization. New York: Routledge. Although some of the work is country specifi c, most of Mengistae, Taye. 2006. “Competition and Entrepreneurial Hu- the studies combine several countries, such as in Sub-Sa- man Capital in Small Business Longevity and Growth.” haran Africa. With questionnaires following a common core Journal of Development Studies 43(5). and implementation strategy, the data are comparable across Elbadawi, Ibrahim, T. Mengistae, and A. Zeufack. 2006. “Market countries. Productivity work can be done on specifi c sec- Access, Supplier Access and Africa’s Manufactured Exports.” tors as the sampling strategy focused on key manufacturing Journal of International Trade and Economic Development 15(4). sectors in each country. The surveys ask for three years of ———. Forthcoming. “Geography and Manufacturing Produc- data. This allows for some growth trends to be studied, and tivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Journal of Developing Areas. supplies lagged values that can be used as instruments or in Dollar, D., M. Hallward-Driemeier, and T. Mengistae. 2006. Levinsohn-Petrin estimates of productivity to control for the “Investment Climate and International Integration.” World endogeneity of inputs in the production function estimates. Development 34(9). The analyses reinforce the importance of investment for fi rm Mengistae, Taye. 2006. “Labor Regulation, Temporary Employ- productivity, growth, and investment. ment, and on the Job Skill Formation in Developing Econ- The work has also been supported by the Microeconomics omies: A Firm Level Analysis.” World Bank, Washington, of Growth Conferences, held in Beijing, China (November D.C. Processed. 2005); Washington, D.C. (May 2006); and Delhi, India (De- Mengistae, Taye, Randall Morck, Lixin Colin Xu, and Bernard cember 2006).

143 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics portance of fi rm dynamics in improving allocative effi ciency. and Growth Team—Mary Hallward-Driemeier (mhallward@ But there is considerable variation in the contribution of fi rm worldbank.org), Ana Fernandes, George Clarke, Giuseppe turnover across countries. To date, the project has explored Iarossi, Taye Mengistae, and Lixin Colin Xu. With Ser- these patterns by looking at differences across sectors or age/ gio Kurlat; Reyes Aterido; and Brooke Helppie, University size classes of fi rms. of Michigan. The project will also analyze the broader investment cli- Project Code: P099282. mate in which the fi rm operates. Some work looking at differ- Completion date: Ongoing. ences across sectors on the impact of regulation on entry rates in Europe is promising in this regard. In addition, prelimi- Publications nary analysis highlights the importance of competition and Clarke, George. 2005. “Beyond Tariffs and Quotas: Why Don’t property rights in raising the relative probability that more African Manufacturers Export More?” Policy Research productive fi rms survive. The project uses new panel and Working Paper 3617. World Bank, Washington, D.C. census data to advance the understanding of the contribution Dollar, David, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Taye Mengistae. of fi rm dynamics to productivity growth and the role that the 2006. “Investment Climate and International Integration.” investment climate plays in this process. World Development 34(9): 1498-1516. Together, this work is identifying areas of reform of the Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and Reyes Aterido. 2007. “Compar- investment climate that will strengthen private sector devel- ing Apples to…Apples: Making (More) Sense of Subjective opment, productivity growth, and job creation. Rankings of Constraints to Business.” Paper presented at The project has also been supported by the Micro- Oxford Business and Economics Conference. economics of Growth Conferences, held in Delhi, In- Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and Brooke Helppie. 2007. “Why dia (December 2006) and Washington, D.C. (June 2007). Don’t Firms Take Advantage of More Flexible Labor Op- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics tions? Regulation, Enforcement and Corruption.” Paper and Growth Team—Mary Hallward-Driemeier (mhallward@ presented at International Labor Conference, University of worldbank.org), Luis Serven, Ana Fernandes, Taye Mengis- Michigan and Cornell University. tae, and Rita Almeida. With Susanto Basu, Boston College; Lall, Somik, and Taye Mengistae. 2005. “Business Environment, Fabio Schianterelli, Boston College; John Haltiwanger, Uni- Clustering and Industry Location: Evidence from Indian versity of Maryland; Sergio Kurlat; and Reyes Aterido. Cities.” Policy Research Working Paper 3675. World Bank, Project Code: P104056. Washington, D.C. Completion date: Ongoing. ———. 2005. “The Impact of Business Environment and Eco- nomic Geography on Plant-Level Productivity: An Analysis Publications of Indian Industry.” Policy Research Working Paper 3664. Aterido, Reyes, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Giuseppe Iar- World Bank, Washington, D.C. ossi. 2007. “From Benchmarking to Impact.” African Com- petitiveness Report. World Economic Forum. Firm Dynamics and Growth Aterido, Reyes, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Carmen Pages. 2007. “Investment Climate and Employment Growth: The This research project examines the fi rm dynamics underlying Impact of Regulations, Access to Finance and Corruption aggregate growth. In particular, it looks at how fi rm character- Across Firms.” Presented at the Inter-American Develop- istics and the broader business environment affect entry, exit, ment Bank. and allocative effi ciency, and how these dynamics generate Hallward-Driemeier, Mary. 2006. “Who Survives? The Role of broader patterns of growth, investment, and productivity. Competition, Property Rights and Corruption across Firms.” The work uses fi rm level data (including Investment Cli- Paper presented at ISNIE Conference, Boulder, Colorado; mate Enterprise Surveys and census data) to examine the de- the World Bank Macro Seminar; and the Microeconomics of terminants of fi rm dynamics and how these aggregate up to Growth Conference, Washington, D.C. explain macro performance. The project relies primarily on Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and Brooke Helppie. 2007. “Why panel data to evaluate the impact of changes in policies and Don’t Firms Take Advantage of More Flexible Labor Op- investment climate measures. tions? Regulation, Enforcement and Corruption.” Paper Using both developed and developing country census presented at International Labor Conference, University of data, the decomposition of productivity demonstrates the im- Michigan and Cornell University.

144 Microeconomics of Productivity Growth in Eastern European Commission in Brussels, and Center for Strategic Europe and the Former Soviet Union Studies in Moscow (March 2007); consultations with lead country economists for Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and Geor- This research project is documenting and assessing the pat- gia, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (April 2007); presentation terns and policy determinants of productivity growth in the at the World Bank Growth Commission Workshop, Interna- Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region at the aggregate, sectional Finance Corporation, Washington, D.C. (April 2007); tor, and fi rm levels. The project differs from previous, re- and a draft decision meeting on report with peer reviewers, lated research by drawing on a wide array of data, building World Bank, Washington, D.C. (June 2007). on fi rm-level heterogeneity to better understand the roots of Responsibility: Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Re- observed aggregate performance in ECA countries. Further, duction/Economic Management Unit—Charles Udomsaph it is undertaking innovative empirical approaches, merging ([email protected]), Ana Fernández, Cesar Calde- fi rm-level fi nancial data with investment climate surveys and ron, and Faruk Khan. With Stefano Scarpetta, OECD; Eric other policy and institutional environment data sets. Bartelsmann, Vrije University; John Earle, Upjohn Institute, The research focuses on productivity as the key to pros- Michigan; David Brown, Heriott University; Almos Telegdy, perity, which is in line with the growing consensus that pro- Budapest University; Saso Polanec, Slovenia, Slovenia Uni- ductivity differences account for most of the cross-country versity; Jaan Masso, Estonia University; Mihails Hazans, variation in long-run per capita income. The second key as- Latvia University; Ondrej Rigval, Prague University; Marcin pect of the research is its focus on the microeconomic under- Piatkowski, International Monetary Fund; Mark Schaffer, pinnings of aggregate performance. The bulk of the analysis Heriott University; Zvi Lerman, Hebrew University; Jo Swin- is developed at the disaggregated level of sectors and fi rms. nen, Lille University; and Liesbet Vranken, Lille University. Thus, it effectively bridges the micro–macro gap, building on Project Code: P105160. microeconomic heterogeneity to understand better the roots Completion date: December 2007. of observed aggregate performance. Further, because the various available sources of fi rm-level data suffer from dif- Publications ferent idiosyncratic limitations, the project combines various Anos-Casero, P. 2007 “Sectoral Patterns of Output, Employment sources of data: a harmonized panel data set from manufac- and Productivity in ECA Countries.” World Bank, Washing- turing censuses, the Amadeus database of Eastern European ton, D.C. Background paper. fi rms, and the investment climate survey data (BEEPS), Anos-Casero, P., and C. Udomsaph. 2007. “What Drives Firm which already have a panel dimension for ECA countries. Productivity Growth in ECA countries?” World Bank, Wash- Four key fi ndings emerge from the analysis: ington, D.C. Background paper. • There was a productivity surge in ECA during Bartelsman, E., and S. Scarpetta. 2007. “Firms Dynamics and 1999-2005. Demographics in Baltic Countries: Transition and Integra- • Much of the productivity surge was the result of ef- tion.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Background paper. fi ciency gains in existing fi rms. Brown, D., and J. Earle. 2007. “Firm-Level Components of • Both globalizing factors and domestic policies have Aggregate Productivity Growth in ECA Countries.” World contributed to the productivity surge. Bank, Washington, D.C. Background paper. • As transition matures, the reform agenda is shifting Brown, D., J. Earle, and A. Telegdy. 2007. “What Makes from accelerating resource reallocation across fi rms to- ECA Firms Productive? Ownership, Age, Market Struc- ward promoting fi rm expansion through factor market ture and Import Penetration in Georgia, Hungary, Roma- competition, fi nancial deepening, and innovation. nia, Russia and Ukraine.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. A new round of World Bank Country Economic Mem- Background paper. orandums—Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, Russia, and Calderon, C. 2007. “Policy Determinants of Aggregate Produc- Ukraine)—are drawing on the analytical and empirical ap- tivity Growth in ECA Countries.” World Bank, Washington, proaches developed in the context of this research project. D.C. Background paper. Project fi ndings have been presented at a brainstorming Fernandes, A. 2007 “Service Productivity in ECA Countries: workshop, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (January 2007); dis- Patterns, Performance and Policy Drivers.” World Bank, cussions with country economists, World Bank, Washington, Washington, D.C. Background paper. D.C. (March 2007); consultations with the OECD in Paris, Lerman, Z. 2007. “Agriculture Productivity in CIS Countries.” European Central Bank in Frankfurt; EBRD in London, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Background paper.

145 Swinnen, J., and L. Vranken. 2007. “Agriculture Productivity in ECA tion and technological adaptation, and the level of infor- Countries.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Background paper. mation and communications technologies infrastructure all Van Ark, B., and M. Piatkowski. 2007. “The role of ICT in Pro- exerted statistically signifi cant positive effects on long-term ductivity Growth in ECA Countries.” World Bank, Washing- economic growth. ton, D.C. Background paper. Since 1998 the World Bank Institute has maintained the Knowledge Assessment Methodology database, which con- Growth, Innovation, and Reform tains variables that may be used to provide an assessment of countries’ readiness for the knowledge economy. Formal This research project is studying how the process of tech- analysis employing these data faces the problem of which nological and institutional innovation occurs in developing variables to choose and why. Rather than make these deci- countries. That is, how do countries’ regulatory environment, sions in an ad hoc manner, this research project recommends developmental and endowment constraints, political forces, factor-analytic methods to distill the information contained and external conditions affect innovation? in the many variables in the database into a smaller set The project consists of three main studies, which address of factors. the following questions: The main objective of the project was to quantify the fac- 1. Why are developing countries so slow in adopting new tors for each country, and do so in a way that allowed compar- technologies? isons of the factor scores over time. The project investigated 2. What drives the infl uence that developed countries have both principal components and true factor analytic methods, on growth in the developing world? and emphasized simple structures that would help to provide 3. Why is the process of institutional innovation (or econom- a clear political-economic meaning of the factors over time. ic reform) so volatile and even subject to reversion in Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Human Development— developing countries? Derek Chen ([email protected]). Each of the studies is developing a theoretical model to Project Code: P086760. clarify the mechanisms at play. The studies present empirical Completion date: June 2006. evidence, based on a combination of cross-country and case- study sources, to illustrate and test the main implications of Publications the corresponding model. The papers are currently under Chen, Derek H.C., and Carl J. Dahlman. 2004. “Knowledge and preparation. Development: A Cross-Section Approach.” Policy Research Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and In- Working Paper 3366. World Bank, Knowledge for Develop- vestment Team—Norman V. Loayza (nloayza@worldbank. ment Program, Washington, D.C. org) and Luis Servén ([email protected]). With Rapha- Chen, Derek H.C., and Kishore Gawande. 2007. “Underlying el Bergoeing, University of Chile; Facundo Piguillem, Uni- Dimensions of Knowledge Assessment: Factor Analysis of versity of Minnesota; Diego Comín, New York University; the Knowledge Assessment Methodology Data.” Policy Re- Roberto Chang, Rutgers University; and Naotaka Sugawara, search Working Paper 4216. World Bank, Poverty Reduction World Bank. and Economic Management Network, Washington, D.C. Project Code: P102585. Completion date: June 2009. Evaluating Public Policies

Knowledge and Economic Development This research project aimed at designing an approach to guide policy analysts in applying the real option methodology to This research project assessed the effects of knowledge on the evaluation of policies and projects. The project assessed economic growth. The analysis was based on an array of in- the relevance of options created and destroyed in evaluating dicators, each of which represented an aspect of knowledge. policies and projects under dynamic uncertainty and irrevers- The indicators served as independent variables in cross-sec- ibility. It used several analytic approaches: dynamic program- tion regressions that spanned many countries for the period ming, stochastic process analysis, cost-benefi t analysis, and 1960 to 2000. scenario analysis. Data sources include World Bank policy The project showed that knowledge was a signifi cant and project data fi les and several country databases (for Ar- determinant of long-term economic growth. In particular, gentina, Cameroon, Chad, Morocco, Senegal, and Vietnam) the stock of human capital, the level of domestic innova- from the World Bank and other institutional sources.

146 The results of the research should help improve the con- Pennisi, O., and P.L. Scandizzo. 2006. “Economic Evaluation in ception, design, and support of policies and projects through an Age of Uncertainty.” Evaluation 12(1): 77-94. greater participation of stakeholders. The results may also Scandizzo, Pasquale. 2004. “Analisi costi benefici estesa del prompt a shift in the focus of evaluation from increases in Sistema integrato dei trasporti sulla direttrice sud-nord della incomes to improvements in opportunities and capabilities. Regione Basilicata.” Responsibility: Environmentally and Socially Sustainable De- Scandizzo, Pasquale, Gaiha Raghav, and Imai Katsumi. Forth- velopment Network, Offi ce of the Vice President—John coming. “Does the Employment Guarantee Scheme Nash ([email protected]) and Odin K. Knudsen (ok- Stabilise Household Incomes in Rural India?” Applied [email protected]); and Philip Gray; Timothy Irwin, Economics Letters. Severine Dinghem, Ian Alexander, Fabrice Karl Bertholet, Scandizzo, Pasquale, and M. Ventura. 2006. “Bids for the UMTS Iradj Alikhani, Ali Khadr, Gaetane Tracz, and Mohammed System: An Empirical Evaluation of the Italian Case.” Tele- D.E. Feghoul. With Pasquale Scandizzo, Serena Stefanoni, communication Policy 30: 533-51. Carmela Notaro, Ludovica Maglione Piromanlio, Marika Ma- ria Santoro, and Sara Savastano, University of Rome Tor Ver- Macroeconomics and Financial Development gata; and Massimo Daniele Sapienza, Electrabel. The Italian Consultant Trust Fund and the University of Rome Tor Ver- Most of the empirical literature has focused on the uncondi- gata contributed funding for the research. tional relation between fi nancial development and economic Project Code: P087295. growth. This research project pays special attention to other Completion date: June 2006. aspects of macroeconomic performance, such as macroeconomic volatility and the transmission of shocks, and uses dis- Publications aggregated data to identify specifi c mechanisms. It also looks Knudsen, O., and P.L. Scandizzo. 2004a. “Dynamic Comparative at the interaction between fi nancial development and other Advantage and Shadow Exchange Rates under Uncertainty.” structural characteristics, such as the degree of internation- ———. 2004b. “Policymaking under Uncertainty: An al integration and labor market institutions, among others. Options Approach.” The project aims to provide systematic, empirical evi- ———. 2004c. “The Precautionary Principle and the dence on the role of political economy considerations in ex- Social Standard.” plaining why some countries are more fi nancially developed ———. 2004d. “The Social Rate of Discount under the Real than others are. In particular, the analysis looks at the non- Option Methodology.” trivial time variation observed in fi nancial development that ———. 2004e. “Social Standards, Poverty, and Redistribution.” cannot be explained by persistent characteristics. ———. 2004f. “Sustainable Development: Opportunities and The analysis exploits the differences observed across in- Sanctions.” Paper presented at the International Conference dustries and countries. For the disaggregated data, it uses on International Economy and Growth, Villa Mondragone, differences-in-differences estimation techniques to identify Rome, June 23. structural relations. The main data sources consist of existing ———. 2004g. “Uncertainty and the Economics of Concessions databases of macroeconomic and microeconomic variables for Natural Resources.” for large panels of countries, industries, and fi rms. ———. 2004h. “Uneven Growth: Traps and Threats under There are several fi ndings. First, fi nancial development Globalization.” Paper presented at the European Associa- has an important, causal effect on the reduction of macro- tion of Agricultural Economists meetings, Florence, Italy, economic volatility. Second, the benefi cial effect of domestic September 8. fi nancial development for growth is especially important in ———. 2005a. “Biotechnology Risks and Project Interdepen- countries that are closed to trade and capital fl ows. Third, the dence.” In Agricultural Biotechnology: International Trade and process of international integration reduces the demand for Domestic Production. CABI Publishing. domestic fi nancial development. Fourth, political economy ———. 2005b. “Bringing Social Standards in Project Evaluation considerations play an important role in explaining the ob- under Dynamic Uncertainty.” Risk Analysis 25(2): 457-66. served difference in fi nancial development across countries. Pennisi, G., and Pasquale Scandizzo. 2004. “Policy, Program, And fi fth, although fi nancial development does not seem to Project, and Governance: Economic Evaluation in an Age of have a direct role in reducing the impact of shocks to the Uncertainty.” Paper presented at the 6th Biennial Confer- terms of trade, it does have an indirect role that operates ence of the European Evaluation Society, Berlin, October 1. through its interaction with other structural characteristics.

147 The project fi ndings have been presented at the following economic volatility suggest a need for a three-pronged strate- conferences: Panel Meeting of Economía, Yale, New Haven gy to manage it. The fi rst element of such a strategy would be (May 2007); Country Insurance, World Bank, Washington, to reduce domestic policy-induced volatility by controlling D.C. (2007); Current Account and External Financing (or- the level and variability of fi scal spending, keeping a stable ganized by the Central Bank of Chile), LACEA (2006); Fi- monetary and fi nancial policy, and avoiding price rigidity (in- nancial and Commercial Integration, Journal of International cluding that of the exchange rate), which eventually leads to Money and Finance and the University of California at Santa drastic adjustments. Cruz (September 2006); Growth and Welfare Consequences The second element would be to strengthen the econo- of Macroeconomic Volatility, organized by CEPR, CREI, and my’s shock absorbers. Creating room for countercyclical fi scal the World Bank (2006); the Emerging Markets Finance Con- policies is essential. This depends on the ability of the au- ference, Cass Business School, London (2005); Inter-Amer- thorities to reduce public debt to internationally acceptable ican Development Bank Economics Seminar (2005); West- levels, establish a record of saving in good times, and develop ern Finance Association Annual Conference (2005); NBER credibility against perceptions of wasteful spending and de- Conference on Corporate Finance, Latin American Financial fault risk. Network, Cartagena (2004); Inter-American Development The third element would be to manage external shocks. Bank Research Seminar (2004); and World Bank Macroeco- Governments have traditionally had three options: self-pro- nomics Seminar (2004). tection (reducing the exposure to risk through, for example, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- low trade and fi nancial openness), self-insurance (transfer- nomics and Growth Team—Claudio Raddatz (craddatz@ ring resources across time by, for example, accumulating worldbank. org). foreign reserves during tranquil times), and full hedging and Project Code: P089886. insurance (transferring resources across “states of nature” Completion date: June 2008. by, for example, securing contingent credit lines or trading commodity-linked options). Publications The project’s preliminary fi ndings have been presented at Braun, M. and C. Raddatz. 2006. “The Politics of Financial De- the World Bank, Pompeu Fabra University, and the Meetings velopment: Evidence from Trade Liberalization.” Journal of of the Latin American Economic Association in Mexico. Finance 60(3). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and ______. 2007. “Trade Liberalization, Capital Account Liberal- Macroeconomics Team—Norman V. Loayza (nloayza@world- ization, and the Real Effects of Financial Development.” bank.org), Claudio Raddatz, and Luis Serven. Journal of International Money and Finance. Project Code: P080834. Loayza, N., and C. Raddatz. 2006. “The Structural Determi- Completion date: June 2008. nants of External Vulnerability.” Policy Research Working Paper 4089. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publications Raddatz, C. 2006. “Liquidity Needs and Vulnerability to Finan- Loayza, Norman, and Claudio E. Raddatz. 2007. “The Struc- cial Underdevelopment.” Journal of Financial Economics 80: tural Determinants of External Vulnerability.” World Bank 677-722. Economic Review 21(3): 359–87. ______. 2007. “Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Does Loayza, Norman, Romain Rancière, Luis Servén, and Jaume the Use of Trade Credit Amplifies the Impact of Sectoral Ventura. 2007. “Macroeconomic Volatility and Wel- Shocks?” World Bank, Washington, D.C. fare in Developing Countries.” World Bank Economic Review 21(3): 343–57. Macroeconomic Volatility and Development Raddatz, Claudio E. Forthcoming. “Are External Shocks Re- sponsible for the Instability of Output in Low-Income Macroeconomic volatility in developing countries has partic- Countries?” Journal of Development Economics. ularly large welfare costs. These costs are worst in countries that are poor, fi nancially and institutionally underdeveloped, Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Its Impact in and or unable to conduct counter-cyclical fi scal policies. This re- outside Africa search project is studying the connection between volatility and lack of development. This research project asked two broad, pivotal questions: The project shows that the three main sources of macro- how serious was the real exchange rate misalignment, espe-

148 cially real exchange rate overvaluation, in Sub-Saharan Africa petitiveness, Avoiding the Dutch Disease, and Accelerating and in other regions? And what impact would real exchange Growth.” Background paper for the 2007 Ghana Country rate misalignment, especially extreme real exchange rate Economic Memorandum. World Bank, Washington, D.C. overvaluation, have on growth, aid effectiveness, exports, and Elbdawi, Ibrahim, Linda Kaltani, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. economic diversifi cation? 2006. “Post-Conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment To answer these operationally-relevant questions, the and Catch-up Growth.” Policy Research Working Paper project investigated whether the data suggested that real 4187. World Bank, Washington, D.C. exchange rate overvaluation reduced aid effectiveness, the Elbdawi, Ibrahim, and Raimundo Soto. 2006. “Theory and Em- extent to which real exchange rate misalignment was more pirics of Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and damaging to growth and exports in fi nancially underdevel- Other Developing Countries.” Paper presented at Africa oped economies, and whether moderate real exchange rate Region BBL (March). under-valuation could be helpful to non-traditional exports, economic diversifi cation, and possibly overall growth. Decentralization and Local Participation The analysis used a model-consistent real exchange rate misalignment that controlled for aid fl ows. In addition, the This research project examined the impact of communi- project addressed one of the main criticisms of this line of ty-driven development fostered by community mobili- work by empirically building a model-consistent measure of zation on the accountability of local governments under optimal imports. The analysis estimated the equilibrium real decentralization. exchange rate by using a pooled mean group estimator that A decentralized allocation of development funds could be allowed for heterogeneous short-run effects and imposes ho- subject to capture by local elites in the face of entrenched mogeneity of the long-run coeffi cients across countries. local inequalities. Community-driven development initia- The main data sources were the World Bank’s World De- tives that empower otherwise marginalized groups could be velopment Indicators and the International Monetary Fund’s viewed as a valuable check on such capture. Alternatively, International Financial Statistics. Country and region-specif- they could create redundant parallel structures that could ic databases complemented these sources. potentially undercut decentralization efforts. Hence, the The project fi ndings showed that there does not appear project’s main research question was: Can community driven to be any evidence of Dutch Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa. development initiatives make the gains from decentraliza- Real exchange rate overvaluation negatively affected growth, tion more equitable, effi cient, and sustainable? and undermined aid effectiveness and economic diversifi ca- The analysis was based on a list of 240 villages of which tion. Furthermore, the analysis showed that deep fi nancial 150 were randomly selected for the study. The project com- markets could counter the negative impact of real exchange pleted a baseline census in all 150 selected villages and used rate overvaluation. the information to refi ne the random allocation of villages to The project fi ndings have already been used in work on program and control groups. Rwanda and Ghana. The project fi ndings were presented at The project is using the census data and program uptake the workshop “Political Institutions, Development, and a information to look at issues of program targeting and exclu- Domestic Civil Peace,” in Oslo (June 2006). sion. The fi ndings are expected to contribute to the assess- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics ment of whether community-driven development has cre- and Growth Team— Ibrahim Elbdawi (Ielbadawi@world- ated organizations that are complementary institutions. The bank.orga), and Linda Kaltani. With Raimundo Soto, Catho- fi ndings will help to determine whether the institutions en- lic University of Chile. hance the quality of local governance or of competing struc- Project Code: P094688. tures that undermine the effi cacy of local governments. Completion date: September 2007. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Ru- ral and Urban Development, and Poverty Team—Ghazala Publications Mansuri ([email protected]), and Finance Team— Elbdawi, Ibrahim, and Linda Kaltani. 2006. “The Real Ex- Xavier Gine. With RCons Survey Firm, Pakistan. change Rate and External Competitiveness in Rwanda.” Project Code: P098260. Background paper for the 2006 Rwanda Country Economic Completion date: September 2007. Memorandum. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ______. 2007. “Scaling-up Aid for Ghana: Maintaining Com-

149 Housing and the Macro Economy The main data source of detailed aid data was the OECD Development Assistance Committee database. Other data This research project is collecting new information on inter- sources were the World Bank’s World Development Indica- national developments in housing and housing fi nance sys- tors and the International Monetary Fund’s International Fi- tems. Data have been collected from macroeconomic models, nancial Statistics. and the project is bringing together leading economists from Although no operational and policy implications could be around the world to discuss the role that housing prices and generalized, a preliminary quality of aid index was created, asset volatility play in macroeconomic conditions, including and it has helped to convey some of the features of aid, such savings behavior. Nobel Laureate and Growth Commission as its (excessive) tying status, high level of sector concentra- Chairman Michael Spence has chaired the discussions. tion of aid, and (excessive) donor fragmentation. The results so far suggest, fi rst, that the long-run effect of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment Cli- housing subsidies on savings could be signifi cantly different mate Team— Ibrahim Elbadawi ([email protected]), than the short-run effects that are traditionally discussed and John Randa, and Linda Kaltani. depend fundamentally on savings supply elasticities. Sec- Project Code: PO94691. ond, there has been extraordinary growth in the supply of Completion date: June 2005. housing fi nance in a number of developing countries, which has potentially signifi cant macroeconomic consequences. Publication It is hoped that this research will be useful for construct- Elbadawi, Ibrahim, and John Randa. 2004. “Assessing the ing a better metric for evaluating the sorts of urban policies Development Impact of CDF- like Experiences.” Jour- that are most conducive to growth. The Growth Commis- nal of Development and Economic Policy, Arab Planning sion’s overall perspective is that the “Washington Consensus” Institute, Kuwait. has been replaced by a search for the binding constraints to growth. This work will attempt to identify how various hous- Aid and the Millennium Development Goals ing and urban land market distortions may be identifi ed as to whether they are likely to be binding constraints to growth. Research can help inform donor agencies and their constitu- Project fi ndings were presented at a meeting of the Growth encies on the effectiveness of alternative approaches to aid, Commission working groups, Washington, D.C. (May 2007). but no single approach to assessing aid effectiveness is suf- Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department— fi cient or even best. This research project addresses several Robert Buckley ([email protected]) and Patricia research questions. Annez. With Jerry Kalarical; Robert Van Order, University of Does aid effectiveness depend on recipient countries’ Michigan. policies and institutions? The project revisits important issue Project Code: P103714. of the role of policies and institutions in aid effectiveness. It Completion date: January 2008. is examining outcomes other than economic growth, testing the quality of aid rather than just quantity, and shifting from Quality of Aid the country level to states or even projects. Does aid facilitate policy reform? The project studies this The goal of this research project was to construct a quality of issue by utilizing a variety of methods, ranging from case aid index for development aid that ranks it on a series of cri- studies of policy choice to correlations between policy-maker teria such as donor fragmentation, sector concentration, and characteristics and indices of policy adoption. aid status. How does aid affect the allocation of government spend- The analysis linked the quality of aid index to the perfor- ing? A much larger share of aid is devoted to social sectors mance measures of a large set of aid-receiving countries so as and less to “productive” sectors compared with 15 years ago. to assess whether aid quality in addition to the quantity of aid The perceived need in Africa for improved infrastructure to are important for growth. attract private investment is stimulating renewed debate on So far, there is no comprehensive index that captures the the appropriate allocation of aid across sectors. Moreover, quality of aid from the perspective of the aid-receiving coun- with respect to spending across sub-sectors in sectors such try. Thus, this approach would be complementing more eclec- as health and education, donors, at least nominally, have tic work that controls for certain features of aid (for instance, stressed primary education and primary health care. There the tying status of aid) in the aid effectiveness literature. has also been much discussion, but apparently no systematic

150 evidence, on the extent to which donors’ emphasis on HIV/ country economists working on debt issues. This project has AIDs has come at the expense of other health sub-sectors. also funded the development of a simple Excel-based tool These concerns argue for a re-examination of the effects of for implementing growth forecasts based on growth regres- aid on the composition of public spending. For example, the sions and performing scenario analysis with it. This tool has project is extending previous work to test whether the cross- been further refi ned and put into use by the World Bank’s sector fungibility of aid is affected by the ratio of project aid Poverty Reduction and Economic Management network. to program aid, or by citizen voice in budget priorities, prox- The two research papers have been disseminated in semi- ied by democracy indicators. nars at the World Bank, the Center for Global Development, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- Princeton University, the University of Chicago, and the Lat- opment and Public Services Team—Halsey Rogers (Hrog- in American Economic Association Meetings. [email protected]), Varun Gauri, Waly Wane, and Stephen Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconom- Knack. With Pamela Paxton, Ohio State University; Yasuyuki ics and Growth Team—Aart Kraay ([email protected]). Sawada, University of Tokyo; Deborah Brautigam, American With Francisco Gallego, MIT; Jean Imbs, London Business university; and Hai-Anh Dang. School; Romain Ranciere, IMF; and Nicholas Depetris Chau- Project Code: P096746. vin, Princeton University. Closing date: January 2008. Project Code: P093788. Completion date: December 2005. Debt, Debt Relief, and Growth Publications The development community has been engaged in provid- Chauvin, Nicholas Depetris, and Aart Kraay. 2005. “What Has 100 ing large-scale debt relief to the poorest developing coun- Billion Dollars Worth of Debt Relief Done for Low-Income tries, most recently under the Heavily Indebted Poor Coun- Countries?” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Manuscript. tries Initiative. In this context, careful empirical work on the Chauvin, Nicolas Depetris, and Aart Kraay. 2007. “Who Gets channels through which debt may help or hinder growth, and Debt Relief?” Journal of the European Economic Associa- on the consequences of debt relief, is of substantial policy tion 5(2–3): 333–42. relevance. The major outputs of this project are two empirical Imbs, Jean, and Romain Ranciere. 2005. “The Overhang Hang- papers investigating the links between debt, debt relief, and over.” Policy Research Working Paper 3673. World Bank, growth. One of these revisits the empirical literature on the Washington, D.C. reduced-form effects of debt on growth, using novel methodologies to uncover possible nonlinearities in this relationship. It fi nds evidence of adverse effects of debt on growth that occur at very high levels of indebtedness. The second major paper studies the impact of debt relief on outcomes of interest in low-income countries, using a newly-created dataset on the present value of debt relief. It fi nds disappointingly little evidence that past debt relief has been successful in meeting its stated objectives of creating fi scal space for pro-poor public spending, and in removing debt overhang. Both papers are quite recent, but their fi ndings should be useful in informing future policy debates inside and outside the Bank on the role of debt, and debt relief, in growth. A related practical concern in operational work on debt issues is developing views on the sustainability of a country’s projected debt trajectory. These projections tend to be highly sensitive to assumptions on future economic growth, and these in the past typically have been overly optimistic. Re- cent research has suggested the possible value of grounding these growth projections in existing cross-country growth regressions, but implementing these is cumbersome for typical

151 Poverty and Inequality

Equity and Development: A Research Program on Özler. 2006. “Local Inequality and Project Choice: Theory Poverty and Inequality and Evidence from Ecuador.” Policy Research Working Pa- per 3997. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The fi rst part of this research project aims to enhance the Ban, Radu, and Vijayendra Rao. Forthcoming. “Tokenism vs. quality and quantity of existing data on poverty and inequal- Agency? The Impact of Women’s Reservations on Village ity, as conventionally measured in terms of current incomes. Democracies in South India.” Economic Development and Cul- It builds on both new data initiatives and past work by mem- tural Change. bers of the group including the global poverty monitoring Beard, Victoria, Menno Pradhan, Vijayendra Rao, Randi Cartmill, task and PovcalNet. The study focuses on the main sources Rivayani, and Yulia Herawati. 2007. “Decentralization and of comparability problems and assesses their implications for Elite Capture: The Selection of Leaders and Beneficiaries the measurement of poverty and inequality. The research ex- in Community-Driven Projects in Indonesia.” In Victoria plores various approaches to operationalizing the concept of Beard, Faranak Miraftab, and Christopher Silver, eds. Plan- using case studies. It also examines the implications for sur- ning and Decentralization: Contested Spaces for Public Action in vey data collection and analysis. It includes related work on the Global South. London: Routledge. economic mobility and measurement error problems. Besley, Tim, Rohini Pande, and Vijayendra Rao. 2007. “The Po- The second part of the project examines newer approach- litical Economy of Gram Panchayats in South India.” Eco- es in measurement, which aim at capturing the concepts of nomic and Political Weekly, February 24. inequality of opportunity, empowerment, and agency. Extra Bourguignon, Francois, Francisco H.G. Ferreira, and Michael information on people’s own perceptions of well-being is Walton. 2007. “Equity, Efficiency and Inequality Traps: A Re- brought into the picture by setting equivalence scales and search Agenda.” Journal of Economic Inequality 5(2):235-56. cost-of-living indices. That information can also throw new Chaudhuri, Shubham, and Martin Ravallion. 2007. “Partially light on the importance of relative deprivation. In addition to Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth in China and India.” exploring the scope for using subjective and qualitative data In L. Alan Winters and Shahid Yusuf, eds. Dancing with Gi- in more systematic and credible ways, some of the analysis ants: China, India, and the Global Economy. Washington, D.C.: relates to measuring empowerment and “voice,” including World Bank; Singapore: Institute of Policy Studies. direct indicators of power or “agency.” Chen, Shaohua, Martin Ravallion, and Youjuan Wang. 2006. Another part of the work focus on three specifi c micro- “Di Bao: A Guaranteed Minimum Income in Urban Chi- institutional manifestations: political inequality, judicial in- na?” Policy Research Working Paper 3805. World Bank, equality, and social inequality Washington, D.C. Given that all policies affect inequalities in income and Chiburis, Richard, and Michael Lokshin. 2007. “Maximum other dimensions, even when that is not their primary aim, Likelihood and Two-Step Estimation of an Ordered-Probit the research focuses on a narrow set of policies for improv- Selection Model.” Stata Journal 7(2): 1-16. ing distribution. The specifi c policies include community- Das, Jishnu, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, David McKenzie, and driven development, disaster relief, institutional reforms for Kinnon Scott. Forthcoming. “Poverty and Mental Health in promoting local democracy, land reforms, judicial reforms, in- Developing Countries: Revisiting the Relationship.” Social stitutional reforms for promoting local democracy, programs Science and Medicine. for the extreme poor, poor-area development programs, and Das Gupta, Monica, Michael Lokshin, M. Gragnolati, and O. transfer schemes (workfare and conditional cash transfers). Ivaschenko. 2005. “Improving Child Nutrition Outcomes Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— in India: Can the Integrated Child Development Service Martin Ravallion ([email protected]). Be More Effective?” Policy Research Working Paper 3647. Project Code: P099861. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Completion date: December 2008. Dasgupta, Monica, Ghazala Mansuri, Nistha Sinha, and Tara Vishwanath. 2007. “Gender-Based Constraints to the Utili- Publications zation of Maternal and Child Health Services in Pakistan: Araujo, M.C., Francisco H.G. Ferreira, Peter Lanjouw, and Berk The Role of the Doorstep Delivery System.” In Gender and

152 Access in South Asia. Paris: International Union for the Scien- Estimation of Partial Linear Regression Models.” Stata Jour- tific Study of Population. nal 6(3): 377-83. Do, Quy-Toan, Shareen Joshi, and Sriya Iyer. 2006. “The Eco- Lokshin, Michael, and Kathleen Beegle. 2006. “Forgone Earn- nomics of Consanguineous Marriage.” Policy Research ings from Smoking: Evidence for a Developing Country.” Working Paper 4085. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 4018. World Bank, Washing- Do, Quy-Toan, and Andrei Levchenko. 2005. “Trade, Inequality ton, D.C. and the Political Economy of Institutions.” Policy Research Lokshin, Michael, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovski, and Elena Glin- Working Paper 3836. World Bank, Washington, D.C. skaya. 2007. “Work-related Migration and Poverty Reduc- Do, Quy-Toan, and Tung Duc Phung. 2006. “Superstition, Fam- tion in Nepal.” Policy Research Working Paper 4231. World ily Planning, and Human Development.” Policy Research Bank, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 4001. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Lokshin, Michael, and Monica Fong. 2006. “Women’s Labour Elbers, C., P. Lanjouw, Berk Özler, and Johan Mistiaen. Forth- Force Participation and Child Care in Romania.” Journal of coming. “Reinterpreting Between-Group Inequality.” Jour- Development Studies 42(1): 90-109. nal of Economic Inequality. Lokshin, Michael, and Elena Glinskaya. 2007. “Private-public Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, Julie A. Litchfield, Wage Differential and Sectoral Choice Decision in India.” and Gabriel Ulyssea. 2007. “Ascensao e Queda da Desigual- Journal of International Development 19: 333-55. dade de Renda no Brasil: uma atualizacao para 2005.” In Ri- Lokshin, Michael, and Martin Ravallion. 2005a. “Lasting Local cardo Paes de Barros, ed. Desigualdade de Renda no Brasil: Impacts of an Economy-wide Crisis.” Policy Research Work- uma analise da queda recente. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA/DFID. ing Paper 3503. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. Forthcoming. “The Rise and Fall of Brazilian Inequal- ———. 2005b. “Searching for the Economic Gradient in Self- ity: 1981-2004.” Macroeconomic Dynamics. Assessed Health.” Policy Research Working Paper 3698. Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, and Matthew Wai- World Bank, Washington, D.C. Poi. 2007. “Trade Liberalization, Employment Flows, and Lokshin, Michael, and Zurab Sajaia. Forthcoming. “The Eco- Wage Inequality in Brazil.” Policy Research Working Paper nomic Cost of Smoking: Differences in Wages between 4108. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Smokers and Non-smokers in Russia.” Applied Econometrics Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Michael Walton. 2006. “Inequality (in Russian). of Opportunity and Economic Development.” In Kochen- Lokshin, Michael, Nithin Umapathi, and Stefano Paternostro. dorfer-Lucius and Boris Pleskovic, eds. Equity and Develop- 2006. “Robustness of Subjective Welfare Analysis in a Poor ment. Berlin: Inwent. Developing Country: Madagascar 2001.” Journal of Develop- Glinskaya, E., and Michael Lokshin. 2005. “Private-public ment Studies 42(4): 559-91. Wage Differential and Sectoral Choice Decision in In- Lokshin, Michael, and R. Yemtsov. 2005. “Who Bears the Cost dia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3574. World Bank, of Russia’s Military Draft?” Policy Research Working Paper Washington, D.C. 3547. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Kadekodi, Gopal K., Ravi Kanbur, and Vijayendra Rao. 2007. ———. 2006. “Distributional and Welfare Implications of the “Governance and the ‘Karnataka Model of Development.’” Military Draft: Micro-Level Evidence from Russia.” Voprosy Economic and Political Weekly, February 24. Economiki (in Russian) 1: 50-69. ———. Forthcoming a. “Assessing the Karnataka Model of De- Mansuri, Ghazala. 2006a. “Migration, Sex Bias and Child Growth velopment.” In Gopal K. Kadekodi, Ravi Kanbur, and Vijay- in Rural Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 3946. endra Rao, eds. Challenges of Karnataka’s Development. New World Bank, Washington, D.C. Delhi: Academic Foundation Press. ———. 2006b. “Migration, School Attainment and Child Labor.” ———. Forthcoming b. The Challenges of Karnataka’s Develop- Policy Research Working Paper 3945. World Bank, Washing- ment. New Delhi: Academic Foundation Press. ton, D.C. Klytchnikova, Irina, and Michael Lokshin. 2007. “Measuring ———. 2007. “Does Work Migration Spur Investment in Origin Com- Welfare Gains from Better Quality Infrastructure.” Policy Re- munities? Entrepreneurship, Schooling and Child Health in Rural search Working Paper 4217. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Pakistan.” In Caglar Ozden and Maurice Schiff, eds. International Korinek, Anton, Johan Mistiaen, and Martin Ravallion. 2007. “An Migration Policy and Economic Development: Studies Across the Globe. Econometric Method of Correcting for Unit Nonresponse Washington, D.C.: World Bank; New York: Palgrave McMillan. Bias in Surveys.” Journal of Econometrics 136(1): 213-35. Rao, Vijayendra. 2006a. Book Review of Twenty-First Centu- Lokshin, Michael. 2006. “Semi-parametric Difference-based ry India by Tim Dyson, Robert Cassen, and Leela Visaria.

153 Oxford University Press, 2004. Population Development ress in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. The Review (June). second component focused on why some growth processes ———. 2006b. “Dowries.” In Kaushik Basu, ed. Oxford Compan- have more impact on poverty than others do. ion to Economics in India. Delhi: Oxford University Press. Improving Data and Methodological Tools ———. 2006c. “Sex Work.” In Kaushik Basu, ed. Oxford Compan- The project developed new methods for calculating purchas- ion to Economics in India. Delhi: Oxford University Press. ing power parity exchange rates using unit value data from Rao, Vijayendra, and Michael Woolcock. Forthcoming. household surveys, and applied the method to data from “Disciplinary Monopolies in Development Research.” India and Indonesia. The study fi nds that there could be Global Governance. substantial disagreement between subjective perceptions of Ravallion, Martin. 2007a. “Achieving Child-Health-Related Mil- economic welfare and standard objective measures. lennium Development Goals: The Role of Infrastructure: A The project helped to develop and apply better tools for Comment.” World Development 35(5): 920-28. the impact evaluation of anti-poverty programs. A number ———. 2007b. “Looking Beyond Averages in the Trade and Pov- of lessons emerged, including the fi nding that neither ran- erty Debate.” In Machiko Nissanke and Erik Thorbecke, domization nor baseline surveys are essential for credible eds. The Impact of Globalization on the World’s Poor: Transmis- ex-post impact assessments. However, high-quality data sion Mechanisms. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. are essential. ———. 2007c. “Urban Poverty.” Finance and Development 44(3). A major part of the work supported under this component ———. Forthcoming a. “Inequality Is Bad for the Poor.” In John was to fi nd ways to improve and expand data through the Micklewright and Steven Jenkins, eds. Inequality and Poverty Comparative Living Standards Project, which was designed Re-Examined. Oxford: Oxford University Press. to facilitate the use of Living Standards Measurement Sur- ———. Forthcoming b. “Miss-Targeted, or Miss-Measured?” vey. The project supported the construction of two databases Economics Letters. – a searchable meta database, and a database that contains a Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2007. “China’s (Uneven) subset of variables common to most Living Standards Mea- Progress against Poverty.” Journal of Development Economics surement Surveys. 82(1): 1-42. Inequality and Growth Processes ———. Forthcoming. “Absolute Poverty Measures for the De- The project explored the extent to which economic growth veloping World, 1981-2004.” Proceedings of the National Acad- is “pro-poor” – and what that means. The project proposed a emy of Sciences. better measure of pro-poor growth, namely the mean growth Ravallion, Martin, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. Forth- rate of the poor, which indicates the direction of change in a coming. “The Urbanization of Global Poverty.” Population theoretically defensible measure of the level of poverty. The and Development Review. project also embarked on a series of country case studies on Ravallion, Martin, and Michael Lokshin. 2004. “Gainers and the determinants of the rate of pro-poor growth. Losers from Trade Reform in Morocco.” Policy Research Furthermore, the project looked at a range of non-income Working Paper 3368. World Bank, Washington, D.C. dimensions of welfare, such as mental health and cultural ———. 2005. “Who Cares about Relative Deprivation?” Policy and social factors, in determining inequality and poverty and Research Working Paper 3782. World Bank, Washington, D.C. access to public services by the poor. The analysis also exam- ———. Forthcoming. “Lasting Impacts of Indonesia’s Financial ined the role of political incentives in resource allocation. Crisis.” Economic Development and Cultural Change. Project results have been presented at universities and research institutes around the world. The latest results are Looking Beyond Averages: A Research Program on available at http://econ.worldbank.org/programs/poverty/. Poverty and Inequality Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Martin Ravallion ([email protected]), Kathleen This research on poverty and inequality had two compo- Beegle, Shaohua Chen, Quy-Toan Do, Francisco Ferreira, nents. The fi rst component aimed to improve the data and Jed Friedman, Emanuela Galasso, Peter Lanjouw, Michael methodological tools for monitoring and describing poverty Lokshin, Ghazala Mansuri, Branko Milanovic, Berk Ozler, and inequality, and for assessing policies that aim to reduce Vijayendra Rao, Prem Sangraula, Kinnon Scott, Diane Steele, poverty. Part of this work dealt with the discrepancies be- and Michael Woolcock. tween surveys and national accounts as part of a wider effort Project Code: P079124. to improve cross-country databases for assessing overall prog- Completion date: June 2005.

154 Publications oping Countries.” In R. Kanbur and A.J. Venables, eds. Spatial Ainsworth, Martha, Kathleen Beegle, and Godlike Koda. 2005. Inequality and Development. New York: Oxford University Press. “The Impact of Adult Mortality and Parental Deaths on ———. 2007. “Re-interpreting Sub-Group Inequality Decom- Schooling in Northwestern Tanzania.” Journal of Develop- positions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3687. World ment Studies 41(3): 412-39. Bank, Washington, D.C. Araujo, M. C., Francisco H.G. Ferreira, Peter Lanjouw, and Berk Elbers, C., Peter Lanjouw, Johan Mistiaen, Berk Özler, and K. Ozler. 2005. “Local Inequality and Project Choice: Theory Simler. 2004. “On the Unequal Inequality of Poor Commu- and Evidence from Ecuador.” Policy Research Working Pa- nities.” World Bank Economic Review 18(3): 401-21. per 3997, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Elbers, C., T. Fujii, Peter Lanjouw, Berk Özler, and W. Yin. 2004. Barron, Patrick, Claire Smith, and Michael Woolcock. 2004. “Un- “Poverty Alleviation through Geographic Targeting: How derstanding Local Level Conflict in Developing Countries: Much Does Disaggregation Help?” Policy Research Work- Theory, Evidence, and Implications from Indonesia.” Work- ing Paper 3419. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ing Paper 19, Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit, Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Phillippe G. Leite. 2004. “Educa- World Bank, Washington, D.C. tional Expansion and Income Distribution: A Microsimula- Beegle, Kathleen. 2005. “Labor Effects of Adult Mortality in tion for Ceará.” In van der Hoeven and Shorrocks, eds. Growth, Tanzanian Households.” Economic Development and Cultural Inequality and Poverty. New York: Oxford University Press. Change 53(3): 655-84. Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, Luiz Pereira da Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev Dehejia, and Roberta Gatti. 2005. “Why Silva, and Paulo Pichetti. 2004. “Can the Distributional Im- Should We Care about Child Labor? The Education, Labor pacts of Macroeconomic Shocks be Predicted? A Comparison Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor.” Policy of the Performance of Macro-Micro Models with Historical Research Working Paper 3479, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Data for Brazil.” Policy Research Working Paper 3303. World ———. 2006. “Child Labor and Agricultural Shocks.” Journal of Bank, Washington, D.C. Development Economics 81(1): 80-96. Friedman, Jed. 2004. “Firm Ownership and Internal Labor Prac- Besley, Timothy, R. Pande, L. Rahman and V. Rao. 2004. “The tices in a Transition Economy: Worker Skill Acquisition in Politics of Public Good Provision: Evidence from Indian Lo- Vietnam.” Economics of Transition 12(2): 333-66. cal Governments.” Journal of the European Economic Associa- Fujii, T. 2005. “Micro-Level Estimation of Child Malnutrition tion 2(2-3): 416-26. Indicators and Its Application in Cambodia.” Policy Re- Burke, Kathleen, and Kathleen Beegle. 2004. “Why Children search Working Paper 3662. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Aren’t Attending School: The Case of Rural Tanzania.” Jour- Gacitúa Marió, Estanislao and Michael Woolcock. 2005. “Assess- nal of African Economies 13(2): 333-55. ing Social Exclusion and Mobility in Brazil.” In Estanislao Campante, Filipe, and Francisco H.G. Ferreira. 2007. “Ineffi- Gacitua-Mario and Michael Woolcock, eds. Social Exclusion cient Lobbying, Populism and Oligarchy.” Journal of Public and Mobility in Brazil. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Economics 91(5-6): 993-1021. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA. Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion. 2004. “How Have the Gacitúa Marió, Estanislao, and Michael Woolcock, eds. 2005. So- World’s Poorest Fared since the Early 1980s?” World Bank cial Exclusion and Mobility in Brazil. Washington, D.C: World Research Observer 19(2): 141-70. Bank; and Rio de Janeiro: IPEA. Das, Jishnu, Quy-Toan Do, Berk Özler. 2005. “A Reassessment Gibson, Christopher, and Michael Woolcock. 2005. “Empower- of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs.” World Bank Research ment and Local Level Conflict Mediation in Indonesia: A Observer 20(1): 57-80. Comparative Analysis of Concepts, Measures, and Project Do, Quy-Toan, and Lakhsmi Iyer. 2006. “An Empirical Investi- Efficacy.” Policy Research Working Paper 3713. World Bank, gation of Civil Conflict in Nepal.” Policy Research Working Washington, D.C. Paper 4228. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Hoogeveen, J., and Berk Özler. 2005. “Not Separate, Not Equal: ———. Forthcoming. “Rural Vietnam in Transition.” Economic Poverty and Inequality in Post-Apartheid South Africa.” Development and Cultural Change. William Davidson Institute Working Paper 739. Elbers, C., J.O. Lanjouw, and Peter Lanjouw. 2005. “Imputed Isham, Jonathan, Michael Woolcock, Lant Pritchett, and Gwen Welfares Estimates in Regression Analysis.” Journal of Eco- Busby. 2005. “The Varieties of Resource Experience: Nat- nomic Geography 5(1): 101-18. ural Resource Export Structures and the Political Econ- Elbers, C., Peter Lanjouw, Johan Mistiaen, and Berk Özler. 2005. omy of Economic Growth.” World Bank Economic Review “Are Neighbors Equal? Estimating Inequality in Three Devel- 19(2): 141-74.

155 Jha, Saumitra, Vijayendra Rao, and Michael Woolcock. 2005. ———. 2006b. “Transfers and Safety Nets in Poor Countries: “Governance in the Gullies: Democratic Responsiveness Revisiting the Trade-Offs and Policy Options.” In Abhijit and Community Leadership in Delhi’s Slums.” World Devel- Banerjee, Roland Benabou, and Dilip Mookerjee, eds. Un- opment 35(2): 230-46. derstanding Poverty. Oxford University Press. Korinek, Anton, Johan Mistiaen, and Martin Ravallion. 2005. “An ———. 2006c. “Who Is Protected? On the Incidence of Fiscal Ad- Econometric Method of Correcting for unit Nonresponse justment.” In Asoka Mody and Catherine Pattillo, eds. Macro- Bias in Surveys.” Journal of Econometrics. economic Policies and Poverty Reduction. London: Routledge. Lokshin, Michael, and Martin Ravallion. 2006. “On the Consis- ———. 2007. “Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs.” In Robert E. tency of Poverty Lines.” In Alain de Janvry and Ravi Kan- Evenson and T. Paul Schultz, eds. Handbook of Agricultural bur, eds. Poverty, Inequality and Development: Essays in Honor Economics Volume 4. Amsterdam: North-Holland. of Erik Thorbecke. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2007. “China’s (Uneven) Mesnard, Alica, and Martin Ravallion. 2006. “The Wealth Effect Progress against Poverty.” Journal of Development Economics on New Business Startups in a Developing Economy.” Eco- 82 (1): 1-42. nomica 73(291): .367-92. Ravallion, Martin, and Michael Lokshin. 2007. “Winners and Milanovic, Branko. 2005a. “Half a World: Regional Inequality Losers from Trade Reform in Morocco.” In Francois Bour- in Five Great Federations.” Journal of Asia Pacific Economy guignon, Luiz Pereira da Silva, and Maurizio Bussolo, eds. 10(4): 408-45. The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribu- ———. 2005b. Worlds Apart: Measuring International and Global tion: Advanced Evaluation Techniques and Tools. Oxford: Ox- Inequality. Princeton University Press. ford University Press. ———. 2005c. “Globalization and Goals: Does Soccer Show the Stock, Wendy, and Kathleen Beegle. 2004. “Employment Pro- Way?” Review of International Political Economy 12(5): 829-50. tections for Older Workers: Do Disability Discrimination ———. 2006. “Economic Integration and Income Convergence: Laws Matter?” Contemporary Economic Policy 22(1): 111-26. Not Such a Strong Link.” Review of Economics and Statistics Strauss, John, Kathleen Beegle, Agus Dwiyanto, Yulia Herawati, 88(4): 659-70. Daan Pattinasarany, Elan Satriawan, Bondan Sikoki, Su- Milanovic, Branko, and Mark Gradstein. 2004. “Does kamdi, and Firman Witoelar. 2004. “Indonesian Living Stan- Liberté=Egalité? A Survey of the Empirical Evidence on dards: Before and After the Financial Crisis.” Rand Corpora- the Links between Political Democracy and Income In- tion, USA, and Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. equality.” Journal of Economic Surveys 18(4): 515-37. Thomas, Duncan, Kathleen Beegle, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Murgai, Rinku, and Martin Ravallion. 2005. “Employment Guar- Bondan Sikoki, John Strauss, and Graciela Teruel. 2004. antee in Rural India: What Would It Cost and How Much “Education in a Crisis.” Journal of Development Economics Would It Reduce Poverty?” Economic and Political Weekly, 74(1): 53-85. July 30, pp. 3450-55. Newhouse, David, and Kathleen Beegle. 2005. “The Effect of The Methodology of Poverty Assessments School Type on Academic Achievement: Evidence from In- donesia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3604. World Bank, Policies to fi ght poverty rely increasingly on data about the Washington, D.C. living conditions of the poor, as refl ected in a poverty profi le. Özler, Berk. 2007. “Not Separate, Not Equal: Poverty and In- But constructing a poverty profi le that can be relied on to equality in Post-Apartheid South Africa.” Economic Develop- guide policy choices is often diffi cult. And the data and meth- ment and Cultural Change 55(3): 487-529. ods used can matter greatly for the choice of policies. Rao, Vijayendra, and Ana Maria Ibanez. 2005. “The Social Impact of This research project investigates the theoretical and em- Social Funds in Jamaica: A Mixed Methods Analysis of Partici- pirical foundations of the methods used in constructing pover- pation, Targeting and Collective Action in Community Driven ty profi les. Many of the data routinely used in poverty analysis Development.” Journal of Development Studies 41(5): 788-838. are full of errors—a situation unlikely to change. There also Ravallion, Martin. 2004. “Who Is Protected from Budget Cuts?” are unavoidable value judgments underlying measurement Journal of Policy Reform 7(2): 109-22. practices. The quality of the World Bank’s policy assessments ———. 2005. “On Measuring Aggregate ‘Social Efficiency.’” and prescriptions may or may not depend on these errors and Economic Development and Cultural Change 53(2): 273-92. assumptions. An important task is to fi nd out just how confi - ———. 2006a. “A Poverty-Inequality Trade-Off?” Journal of dent analysts can be in forming poverty comparisons. Economic Inequality 3(2): 169-82. The project examines the properties of the measures used

156 for assessing individual welfare, including the practices used Ravallion, Martin, and Michael Lokshin. Forthcoming a. in comparing the welfare of different demographic groups “Identifying Welfare Effects from Subjective Questions.” (such as large and small households). It also investigates the Economica. different methods used for setting poverty lines and how ———. Forthcoming b. “Self-Rated Economic Welfare.” Euro- much they matter to the policy conclusions drawn. And it pean Economic Review. studies ways of making better use of such non-income indicators of welfare as health and education indicators. LSMS Phase III A new strand of the research is investigating the properties of subjective welfare indicators, such as self-rated assess- The objective of this research project is to support activities ments of the minimum income needed to make ends meet, that promote and maintain the generation and dissemination consumption adequacy, and whether the respondent is poor. of micro-level data to improve the quality of empirically- A series of case studies (including Jamaica, Nepal, and the based policy-making and expand the research possibilities. Russian Federation) are examining these methods as poten- The project’s main focus is on how to ensure the great- tial complements to more conventional, objective methods est use of micro level data and how to promote its use and of measuring poverty and welfare. expansion. The research project is tailored to the problems faced by The project builds on the initial stages of the Living Stan- World Bank staff undertaking poverty assessments, and there dards Measurement Survey (LSMS) program, which devel- is an active program of training and dissemination. oped the LSMS surveys as a new tool for household data Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and Hu- collection. Although the previous phases of the project dem- man Resources—Martin Ravallion (mravallion@worldbank. onstrated the richness of the data sets that could be attained, org), Peter Lanjouw, Michael Lokshin, Berk Ozler, and Men- little work had been done to ensure the greatest use of the no Pradhan. data sets. The aim here was to create mechanisms to promote Project Code: P027104. the use of the data while also looking to improve them. Completion date: Ongoing. Improving the use and relevancy of LSMS data has taken several forms. Obtaining permission to disseminate data, cre- Publications ating the LSMS Web site, and carrying out ongoing mainte- Datt, Gaurav, V. Kozel, and M. Ravallion. 2006. “A Model-Based nance and improvement of it serve to promote accurate and Assessment of India’s Progress in Reducing Poverty.” In An- effective use of data. Reviews of existing uses of the data and gus Deaton and Valerie Kozel, eds. The Great Indian Poverty other information have also led to concrete proposals for im- Debate. Macmillan Press. proving the quality of household surveys and their relevance Korinek, Anton, Johan Mistiaen, and Martin Ravallion. 2006. for policy-making. Work with counterparts in multi-lateral “Survey Nonresponse and the Distribution of Income.” programs to create and strengthen linkages between data Journal of Economic Inequality 4(2): 33-55. producers and users has also served to ensure the relevance ———. 2007. “An Econometric Method of Correcting for Unit of data and its use. Nonresponse Bias in Surveys.” Journal of Econometrics The LSMS database houses close to 70 LSMS data sets 136: 213-35. with all the relevant documentation. The basic informa- Lokshin, Michael, and Martin Ravallion. 2005. “Rich and Pow- tion document contains information about the survey that erful? Subjective Power and Welfare in Russia.” Journal of an analyst needs to use the data sets correctly as well as all Economic Behavior and Organization 56(2): 141-95. the survey fi eld documents; information on the interviewer, ———. 2006a. “On the Consistency of Poverty Lines.” In Alain supervisor, data entry manuals, and sample design; and the de Janvry and Ravi Kanbur, eds. Poverty, Inequality and De- household, community, and price questionnaires. The LSMS velopment: Essays in Honor of Erik Thorbecke. Springer. Web page is at http://www.worldbank.org/lsms/. ———. 2006b. “Testing Poverty Lines.” Review of Income and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Wealth 52(3): 399-421. Kinnon Scott ([email protected]), Kathleen Beegle, Ravallion, Martin. 2005. “On Measuring Aggregate ‘Social Effi cien- Calogero Carletto, and Diane Steele. With Juan Munoz, cy.’” Economic Development and Cultural Change 53(2): 273-92. Sistemas Integrales, Chile. ———. 2007. “Poverty Lines.” In Larry Blume and Steven Du- Project Code: P027082. rlauf, eds. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edi- Completion date: December 2009. tion. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

157 LSMS IV: Research for Improving Survey Data Measuring and Understanding the Impacts of Development Projects The objective of this research project is to increase knowledge on methods and techniques for generating household The recent emphasis on impact evaluation in World Bank level data for research and policy purposes. This program operations has prompted a surge in activity, with numerous of research is designed to ensure that the Living Standards evaluations starting up, and many more potential evaluations. Measurement Survey (LSMS) program meets the new de- At the same time, there have been substantial advances in mands for data that are arising from international communi- evaluation methodology coming out of the academic litera- ty’s commitment to the Millennium Development Goals and ture in econometrics and statistics, notably in non-experi- Heavily Indebted Poor Country Initiative with the related mental evaluation methods. For example, a new econometric Poverty Reduction Strategies. This demand calls for valida- method directly addresses a recurrent issue emerging from tion of, or improvement in, the tools used to measure key impact evaluations in developing countries, namely that the concepts as well as the development of means to measure impacts can vary greatly according to the context of the in- new concepts. The research is designed to ensure that the tervention, refl ecting the various ways that local institutions LSMS remains at the forefront of survey methodology and and participant characteristics infl uence outcomes. Yet the welfare measurement. method has not, to date, been applied in assessing any de- The project builds and expands on work already done in velopment project and the method cannot be implemented the area of survey methodology by developing and imple- by any existing “off-the shelf” software package. There are menting controlled experiments. Each experiment is de- many other examples illustrating the large current lags be- signed to allow the comparison of different techniques and tween evaluation practice in the World Bank and the litera- measures to determine the effect measurement differences ture in theoretical econometrics. may have on overall fi ndings and assessments of impacts. The World Bank’s Research Department has traditionally In close connection with this, attention is also being given served the role of bridging such methodological develop- to the latest technologies that can be used to improve data ments and operational work at the World Bank. But the high collection. level of demand for technical assistance to staff in operations The research agenda covers three complementary activi- and government and the rapid advance of the more theoreti- ties. The fi rst is a review of the progress that has been made cal literature have put a severe strain on the department’s in improving household surveys in the past fi ve years. The ability to provide the kind of support that is needed. This second is a series of methodological and technological ex- research project is helping to expand the capacity to provide periments aimed at increasing current knowledge on survey the technical support and coordination needed on specifi c re- methodologies. And the third relates to creating new tools search tasks on impact evaluation. and updating existing ones to expand the dissemination of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- literature, knowledge, and results in the area of survey meth- opment and Public Services Team—Elizabeth M. King (Ek- odology in developing countries. [email protected]) and Martin Ravallion. At present the work is still in the design and data collec- Project Code: P102905. tion phase. Completion date: Ongoing. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Kinnon Scott ([email protected]), Calogero Carletto, Long-Run Impacts of Health Shocks in Africa Diane Steele, and Kathleen Beegle. With the Statistical Offi ce of Ghana; SERPro, Chile; EDI, Tanzania; Centro de The research agenda of this project covered numerous topics Estudios y Documentación de la Frontera Occidental de to analyze relationships among AIDS, poverty, and household Guatemala, Guatemala; International Food Policy Research coping mechanisms. The goal of the project was to under- Institute, United States; SEED, Montenegro; John Gibson; stand how individuals are affected in the long run by health Cheryl Doss; Yale University; Dragana; Adolf Faustine Mk- shocks due to HIV/AIDS and other economic shocks. The ende, Tanzania; Nigora Safarova, Tajik; Kristen Himelein; analysis was based on a re-survey of respondents originally Alonso Sanchez; Maria Prada Fernanda; Adelbertus Kamanzi; surveyed in the northwest region of Tanzania in 1991-94. It and Carlo Azarri. is one of the few household surveys that collected data over Project Code: P102013. such a long period and that could address questions concern- Completion date: December 2008. ing the long-term effects of a wide array of topics, includ-

158 ing orphanhood, disability, lack of education, mortality, and ference, Oxford, UK, July 2005; IUSSP conference, Tours, morbidity. As such, it was a unique opportunity to assess who France, July 2005; IFPRI, Washington, DC, September 2005; stayed in poverty over this period and why; who moved out Research and Analysis Working Group, Dar es Salaam, Tan- of poverty and how. zania, October 2005; Oxford University, Centre for the Study The objective of the 2004 survey was to re-interview all of African Economies, Oxford, UK, October 2005; Oxford individuals who were household members in any round of University, HIV-AIDS seminar, Department of Social Poli- the 1991-94 survey. The 2004 household questionnaire col- cy, Oxford, UK, November 2005; IUSSP Seminar on “HIV/ lected information on a wide range of topics, including: hous- AIDS & Poverty,” Cape Town, South Africa, December 2005; ing amenities, consumption, income, assets, time allocation of Mini-Conference on development, Laval University, Quebec, individuals, business activities, remittances, support from or- February 2006; Centre for the Study of African Economies ganizations, education, and health, including anthropometric Africa conference, Oxford, March 2006; Annual Meetings measures. The community questionnaire collects data on the of the Population Association of America, Los Angeles, CA, physical, economic, and social infrastructure of the baseline March 2006; Annual Meetings of the Agricultural Economics communities. The primary school questionnaire collected Association of America, Long Beach, CA, July 2006; Research information on the amenities at schools, composition of the and Analysis Working Group, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, Feb- student body, and assistance to schools. Finally, up to three ruary 2007; Centre for the Study of African Economies Africa price observations were collected in each community from conference, Oxford, March 2007; and the HIV-AIDS collab- local markets/stalls on a list of commonly purchased food and orative research seminar, Oxford, June 2007. non-food items. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— More than 92 percent of all households and more than 80 Kathleen Beegle ([email protected]), Human Devel- percent of all surviving respondents were successfully re- opment Network, Social Protection Team—Johannes Hoo- interviewed. The survey made considerable efforts to track geveen. With Joachim De Weerdt, E.D.I., Bukoba, Tanzania, people who and had migrated out of their baseline commu- and Stefan Dercon, Oxford University. nity (including tracking to other regions of Tanzania). Ad- Project Code: PO82486. ditional data cleaning continued until June 2005, as well as Completion date: June 2006. construction of analytical fi les (consumption aggregate, asset valuation, and price indices). Publications The research activities engaged several Part II research- Beegle, Kathleen, Joachim De Weerdt, and Stefan Dercon. ers and project co-collaborators: Flora Kessy (ESRF, Tanza- 2006. “Adult Mortality and Economic Growth in the Age nia), Godlike Koda (University of Dar es Salaam), Gideon of HIV/AIDS.” Economic Development and Cultural Change Kwesigabo (IPH Muhimbili), Phare Mujinja (IPH Muhim- forthcoming. bili), and Innocent Semali (IPH Muhimbili). The project also ———. 2006. “Orphanhood and the Long-Run Impact on Chil- collaborated with two qualitative data collection efforts, and dren.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88 (5): insights from the research project were used in the Tanzania 1266-1272. Country Economic Memorandum. The project generated ———. 2006. “Poverty and Wealth Dynamics in Tanzania: Evi- publicly available data (no fee) on the LSMS Web site. dence from a Tracking Survey.” mimeo. Project results have been disseminated at the following Beegle, Kathleen and Sofya Krutikova. 2006. “Adult Mortality conferences and workshops: Research and Analysis Work- and Children’s Transition into Marriage.” World Bank Re- ing Group, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, July 2003; DAC-AIDS search Working Paper. meeting, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, August 2003; World Bank Sector team meeting at the Resident Mission, Dar es Salaam, Poverty and Health Tanzania, August 2003; World Bank PADI workshop, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, February 2004; IUPUI, Indianapolis, In- This research project is developing and applying methods for diana, April 2004; EDI Seminar for UNICEF Rep, Bukoba, addressing a broad range of policy and operational questions Tanzania, June 2004; DANIDA Kagera Health Sector Re- related to inequalities in the health sector between poor and form Laboratory, Bukoba, Tanzania, September 2004; Annual non-poor, and the factors that give rise to such inequalities. Meetings of the Population Association of America, Philadel- It also aims to develop practical hands-on guides for using phia, PA, April 2005; Child Health in Developing Countries these methods. Workshop, Bristol, UK, June 2005; Oxford QEH 50th Con- The project has developed decompositions to help assess

159 the sources of inequalities, added measures of catastrophe well-being and aggregate economic performance. Moreover, and impoverishment to the measures of progressivity pre- if poorer families are more likely to disinvest in child educa- viously used to assess equity in health fi nance, introduced tion or health during economic crises, then crises could result more general measures of health inequality that allow the in the intergenerational transmission of poverty. analyst to specify attitudes to inequality, and developed an The basic methodology of this research project involves achievement index that allows inequality to be traded off combining time series of education and health outcomes from against the mean level of health. The project has developed household surveys with aggregate information on economic new analytic methods that have been published and posted fl uctuations from national accounts. Some of the expected on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/povertyandhealth. research outputs are country specifi c, others are cross-country Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Devel- in nature. opment and Public Services Team—Adam Wagstaff (awag- One of the studies has shown that an unusually deep eco- [email protected]) and Magnus Lindelow. With Eddy van nomic crisis in Peru led to increases in school attainment and Doorslaer, Erasmus University, and Owen O’Donnell, Brit- decreases in child labor. The positive impact of the crisis on ish, University of Macedonia. school attainment appears to have been the result of a re- Project Code: PO70134. duction in the opportunity cost of being in school during the Completion date: Ongoing. crisis. At the same time, the negative impact of the crisis on child health appears to have been a result of dramatic reduc- Publications tions in public health expenditures, which led to reductions Gwatkin, D., A. Wagstaff, and A. Yazbeck, eds. 2005. Reaching the in health care utilization during the crisis. One policy impli- Poor with Health, Nutrition and Population Services: What Works, cation of these fi ndings is that it is particularly important for What Doesn’t, and Why. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. governments to protect health expenditures during a crisis. O’Donnell, O., E. van Doorslaer, and A. Wagstaff. 2006. “De- Early results work suggest that moderate crises generally composition of Inequalities in Health and Health Care.” do not have a negative impact on child health, although very In A.M. Jones, ed. The Elgar Companion to Health Economics. deep crises have serious consequences for child health, espe- Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. cially where they are associated with reductions in health care ______. 2007. Analyzing Health Equity Using Household Survey utilization. The project fi ndings so far suggest that blanket Data: A Guide to Techniques and Their Implementation. Wash- statements about the impact of crises on human capital accu- ington, D.C.: World Bank. mulation are not informative. Crises have different impacts Wagstaff, A. 2005a. “The Bounds of the Concentration Index on different dimensions of human capital, and the impact var- When the Variable of Interest Is Binary, with an Application ies by the nature of the crisis and the government response. to Immunization Inequality.” Health Economics 14(4): 429-32. Project results have been presented at the Center for ______. 2005b. “Inequality Decomposition and Geographic Tar- Global Development, Washington, D.C. (February 2007); geting with Applications to China and Vietnam.” Health Econ Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (April 2007); and the 14(6): 649-53. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (May 2007). Wagstaff, A., F. Bustreo, J. Bryce, and M. Claeson. 2004. “Child Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human De- Health: Reaching the Poor.” American Journal of Public Health velopment and Public Services Team—Norbert Schady 94(5): 726-36. ([email protected]) and Jed Friedman. With Sarah Wagstaff A., and M. Lindelow. 2007. “Progressivity in the Fi- Baird, University of California at Berkeley; and Christina nancing of Decentralized Government Health Programs: A Paxson, Princeton University. Decomposition.” Health Economics. Project Code: P090505. Wagstaff, A., and E. van Doorslaer. “Overall versus Socioeco- Completion date: June 2008. nomic Health Inequality: A Measurement Framework and Two Empirical Illustrations.” Health Econ 13(3): 297-301. Publications Paxson, Christina, and Norbert Schady. 2005. “Economic Cri- Macroeconomic Crises and Child Health sis and Child Health in Peru.” World Bank Economic Review 19(2): 203-23. Although macroeconomic crises are relatively short-lived, Schady, Norbert. 2004. “Do Macroeconomic Crises Always Slow any detrimental impact on investments in child human Human Capital Accumulation?” World Bank Economic Review capital may have long-run implications for both individual 18(2): 131-54.

160 Urban Poverty and Social Capital purchasing power parity values. It also tests the robustness of comparisons across regions and over time to measurement By examining the role of social networks, this research proj- assumptions. The data set covers more than 100 countries ect aimed at improving the understanding of how the ur- using 500 nationally representative household surveys, with ban poor cope with risk and vulnerability in India. Using a data for two or more points in time for most countries. multi-dimensional defi nition of risk—encompassing health, The estimates indicate that by 2004, slightly less than 1 income, housing, violence, consumption, and water and sani- billion people—roughly one-fi fth of the population of the tation—the study analyzed risk and insurance in urban slum developing world—were living on less than a dollar a day at areas and modeled economic and social behavior. 1993 prices. Looking back to 1981, the incidence of abso- Using a case study approach focusing on slum areas in Del- lute poverty in the developing world has fallen over time, hi, it integrated focus group discussions and other participa- although not evenly, with setbacks for the world’s poor in tory methods with economic theory and econometric analysis some periods (such as the late 1980s). But there is marked of survey data. The fi ndings showed that informal govern- variation among regions and countries, with the number of ments that form in slums play a crucial role as mediators with poor rising in most of Africa, Europe and Central Asia, and the state. And social networks in slums play an important role Latin America and the Caribbean, and falling in East Asia. in determining living standards. The fi ndings have led to a China naturally plays a large role in the overall headcounts, better understanding of how slums are governed and of the and has seen a dramatic reduction in absolute poverty over potential for community involvement in local projects. this period. Taking China out of the aggregates, the number The project also focused on how identity choices have af- of poor has remained fairly constant over the period. fected aspirations among slum dwellers and how this in turn The project results are reported in various World Devel- has affected prospects for mobility. opment Reports including World Development Indicators. Project fi ndings have been presented at the World Bank, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and Hu- Cambridge University, the Institute for Social and Eco- man Resources—Martin Ravallion (mravallion@worldbank. nomic Change (Bangalore), and the Institute of Economic org) and Shaohua Chen. Growth (Delhi). Project Code: P027088. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Completion date: Ongoing. Vijayendra Rao ([email protected]) and Michael Wool- cock. With Arup Mitra, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi; Publications Lester Coutinho, Delhi University; and Saumitra Jha, Stan- Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion. 2004. “How Have the ford University. World’s Poorest Fared since the Early 1980s?” World Bank Project Code: P068214. Research Observer 19(2, fall): 141-70. Completion date: July 2007. ———. 2007. “Absolute Poverty Measures for the Developing World, 1981-2004.” Policy Research Working Paper 4211. Publications World Bank, Washington, D.C. Jha, Saumitra, Vijayendra Rao, and Michael Woolcock. 2007. Ravallion, Martin. 2007. “Inequality Is Bad for the Poor.” In “Governance in the Gullies: Democratic Responsiveness John Micklewright and Steven Jenkins, eds. Inequality and and Community Leadership in Delhi Slums.” World Devel- Poverty Re-Examined. Oxford: Oxford University Press. opment 35(2): 230-46. Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2007. “China’s (Uneven) Mitra, Arup. 2003. Networks, Occupational Choice, and Poverty: An Progress against Poverty.” Journal of Development Economics Exegesis on Delhi Slums. Delhi: Manohar Publishers. 82(1, January): 1-42. Ravallion, Martin, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. 2007. “New World Poverty Monitoring Estimates on the Urbanization of Global Poverty.” Policy Re- search Working Paper 4199. World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project started around 1990 with the aim of improving the data available for monitoring progress in re- How Does Globalization Affect Middle-Income Strata? ducing aggregate poverty using a consistent compilation of Evidence from Household Budget Surveys distributional data from household surveys. The project uses primary data sources and re-estimates all poverty measures This research project tested how globalization has affected on a consistent basis, converting local currencies to constant income distribution in developing countries, particularly

161 the income share of the middle strata. First the project used Community Driven Development decile data from household surveys to estimate the effects of various policies and economic outcomes on the entire income This research project generated evidence on the impact of distribution. The analysis used new income distribution data Community Driven Development initiatives by undertak- derived directly from more than 300 household surveys for ing rigorous evaluations of the programs. The studies that three benchmark years, 1988, 1993, and 1998. The data cov- were undertaken under the project were expected to provide ered about 80 countries. robust inter-regional and inter-sector evidence on a number Running cross-country and panel regressions over the 10 of questions related to Community Driven Development decile shares, the analysis produced strong evidence that at programs. These included, for example, the relationship below average incomes, the poor had a smaller share of income tween social accountability and good governance; the role of in countries more open to trade. As the income level rose, the community mobilization in building the capacity for broad- relative incomes of the poor and the middle class rose. based collective action; the relationship between decentral- Second, the project investigated what would happen to wage ization and service delivery; and the impact of community inequality if tariff rates were reduced. The analysis consid- based approaches to development on household welfare and ered wage inequality between occupations (skills premium) other indicators. and between industries. It used a large World Bank data set The fi rst product of this project was a survey paper that of average tariff rates for 1980–2000 and two large databases highlighted the need for careful evaluations of Community of wage inequality, both covering more than 100 countries Driven Development and local development initiatives. and more than two decades. The results showed that tariff re- Many of the evaluations undertaken as part of this proj- duction was associated with higher wage inequality between ect used rigorous quantitative evaluation methodologies and, both industries and occupations in poorer countries—but where feasible, as in the Pakistan case, an experimental re- lower inequality in richer countries. search design. Others used well designed qualitative tech- The project pointed to the diffi culties poorer countries niques to address complex questions such as the impact of face during globalization: for these countries, greater open- Community Driven Development on confl ict management ness was associated, most of the time, with greater wage at the local level. and income inequality. The reason was that many people Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— in poorer countries have low skills or practically no market- Ghazala Mansuri ([email protected]), Vijayendra Rao, able skills, while globally produced goods and services tend Berk Ozler, Monica Das Gupta, and Michael Woolcock. to require laborers with at least minimal skill levels. These Project Code: P077725. fi ndings highlight the underlying need for educational and Completion date: December 2005. distributional equity for more equitable globalization. The data for 1988 and 1993 are available at http://www. Trade, Growth, and Poverty in the Least Developed worldbank.org/research/inequality. Countries Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Branko Milanovic ([email protected]). With Lyn The fi rst objective of this project is to deepen the under- Squire, Global Development Network. The Global Devel- standing of the medium-to-long-run impact of trade liberal- opment Network contributed funding for the research. ization on poverty in selected African countries. The proj- Project Code: P085725. ect analyzes how trade liberalization affects the pattern of Completion date: July 2005. growth and, in particular, whether the growth it generates is pro-poor. The second objective is to strengthen the capac- Publications ity of developing country analysts. The project’s case studies Milanovic, Branko. 2005. “Can We Discern the Effect of Global- include Ghana, Senegal, and Uganda. ization on Income Distribution? Evidence from Household In each country a gender-disaggregated, economy-wide, Budget Surveys.” World Bank Economic Review 18(1). computable general equilibrium simulation model linking Milanovic, Branko, and Lyn Squire. 2005. “Does Tariff Liber- macro (trade) policy to growth and poverty has been con- alization Increase Wage Inequality? Some Empirical Evi- structed in collaboration with local researchers. The models dence.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Pa- are used to conduct simulations to analyze the growth and per 11046; and Policy Research Working Paper 3571. World poverty impacts of possible trade liberalization scenarios Bank, Washington, D.C. (Doha Round, unilateral trade liberalization, etc.) compar-

162 ing various accompanying fi scal and redistributive measures. Poverty Impacts of Egypt’s Social Fund for Development Model results are then linked to microsimulation models estimated on household surveys data. These microsimulations Egypt’s Social Fund for Development, together with its de- allow the analysis to assess the potential income distribution velopment partners such as the World Bank, wanted to evalu- and poverty effect in greater detail and can be also used to ate the Fund’s socioeconomic impacts to assess the future test corrective policies. direction of expansion of such programs in Egypt. With this In addition, micro-econometric analysis of various labor objective in mind, the Social Fund for Development fi nanced market outcomes (farm to non-farm employment changes, and supported the country’s data collection agency (which is gender employment and wage rates and education invest- called CAPMAS) in designing and implementing surveys to ments) and the resulting poverty implications are the second generate appropriate data to help evaluate social fund inter- key analytical approach used in the project. ventions. The World Bank Institute provided technical sup- On the microeconomic side, our preliminary results show port in designing and implementing the surveys. that trade liberalization reduces women’s intra-household Local researchers carried out the data analysis with help bargaining power in Senegal. This can lead to a lower than from the World Bank Institute. A preliminary report on the expected increase in long-term human capital accumulation analysis suggests that the Egypt’s Social Fund for Develop- with all its negative effects for future poverty reduction. In ment has had positive impacts on education, health, water, the case of Uganda, the evidence shows that trade liberal- wastewater, roads, and environmental projects. However, ization does not reduce women’s bargaining power; never- micro-credit interventions sponsored by the Fund have pro- theless, women working in export-oriented crops face dis- duced mixed results. The fi ndings of the preliminary report crimination in the form of lack of access to productive land. need to be considered carefully as additional work is re- Finally, our research in Honduras shows that trade liberaliza- quired to estimate the impacts of social fund projects more tion increased, in a signifi cant way, wages and labor participa- thoroughly. tion of Honduran women in the manufacturing sector. This research project seeks to do this exactly. It is using Preliminary project fi ndings were presented at a WIDER the CAPMAS data and examining more rigorously the pov- project meeting in Accra, Ghana (May 2007); the Sixth PEP erty and other welfare effects of social fund interventions. Network General Meeting, Lima, Peru (June 2007); the GTAP Efforts are underway to access the CAPMAS data for the Annual Conference, Purdue University (2007); and the PEG- analysis. Net Conference in Berlin, Germany (September 2007). Responsibility: World Bank Institute Trade Program Division— Responsibility: Development Prospects Group—Maurizio Bus- Shahidur Khandker ([email protected]). solo ([email protected]). With Rafael De Hoyos, Project Code: P100416. World Bank; Jann Lay, Kiel Institute for the World Economy; Completion date: June 2008. John Cockburn, Bernard Decalwe, Veronique Robichaud, and Ismael Fofana, Laval University; Charles Ackah, In- Aid Effectiveness stitute of Statistical, Social, and Economic Research; and Oscar Nuñes. In the aid-to-results chain, what are the roles of donors, do- Project Code: P100407. mestic leadership, governance, institutions, and knowledge Completion date: January 2008. in effecting fi nal outcomes? Given uncertainty, weak links along the chain, and known areas of diminishing returns, Publications can aid be scaled up to meet the Millennium Development Bussolo, M., and R. De Hoyos. 2007. “Agricultural Distor- Goals? What are the necessary conditions? tions, Poverty, and Gender in Senegal.” World Bank, This research project explored the relationship between Washington, D.C. external assistance and development outcomes focusing on Bussolo, M., R. De Hoyos, and O. Nunez. 2007. “Can Maquila policy formulation and how policies shape fi nal outcomes. It Booms Reduce Poverty? Evidence from Honduras.” World also explored the conditions necessary for aid to contribute to Bank, Washington, D.C. development outcomes. Golan, J., and J. Lay. 2007. “More Coffee, More Cigarettes? Cof- The analyses used country data and cross-country fi nan- fee Market Liberalisation, Gender, and Bargaining in Ugan- cial fl ows data. The work on aid effectiveness highlighted the da.” Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany. limitations (and fallacies) of the cross-country analysis employed in most of the literature. The project results showed

163 that the complex causality chain linking external fi nance to Are There Lasting Impacts of Aid to Poor Areas? development results needs to be broken into discreet ele- Evidence from Rural China ments that permit a more complete picture of aid effectiveness based on existing knowledge. This would help in priori- This research project assessed the longer-term impacts at the tizing additional research issues. micro-level (household and village) of a large poor-area pro- Effi cient scaling-up of aid to reach the Millennium Devel- gram. The program—the World Bank–fi nanced Southwest opment Goals would require linking macro elements (such China Poverty Reduction Project—comprised a package of as monetary management, export competitiveness, and labor multi-sector interventions targeted to poor villages using market interventions) with specifi c, strategic approaches at community-based participant and activity selection. The aim the sector level. This would help in identifying the optimal was to achieve a large and sustainable reduction in poverty. sequencing of public investment and institutional interven- To address the selection bias, the study use both propen- tions to reduce total costs over time, including the potentially sity-score weighted regression and kernel-matching methods adverse impact on export performance. to balance the observable covariates between villages that did The project provided a new conceptual framework on aid or did not experience an intervention. The study showed that and outcomes, and helped clarify the limitations of conven- average household income in the project villages increased tional analysis and discourse over aid effectiveness. The work signifi cantly between 1995 and 2000 (the project’s disburse- on scaling up explored the interface between the microeco- ment period). The gains were signifi cantly larger than those nomics and macroeconomics of large aid infl ows, providing found in the matched control villages. However, most of new approaches on absorptive capacity and aid sequencing. these short-term income gains were saved rather than spent. Responsibility: Offi ce of Senior Vice President Development As a result, the project’s impact was not evident in current Economics/Chief Economist—Mark Sundberg and Punam living standards. Modest gains in consumption occurred in Chuhan-Pole ([email protected], Pchuhan@world- the longer term, in step with the modest long-term increase bank.org). in income that could be linked to the project. Four years after Project Code: P098521. project disbursements ended, both project and control vil- Completion date: December 2007. lages had seen sizeable economic gains, but only modest net gains to average income were attributable to the project. Publications Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Bourguignon, François, and Mark Sundberg. 2006a. “Absorptive Martin Ravallion ([email protected]), Shaohua Capacity and Achieving the MDGs.” UN-WIDER Working Chen ([email protected]), and Ren Mu. Paper 47. Project Codes: PO86037 and P095368. ———. 2006b. “Constraints to Achieving the MDGs with Scaled- Completion date: December 2007. Up Aid.” Working Papers 15. Department of Economics and Social Affairs, United Nations. Publications ———. 2007a. “Aid Effectiveness: Opening the Black Box.” Chen, Shaohua, Ren Mu, and Martin Ravallion. 2006. “Are There American Economic Review 97(2, May). Presented at the Lasting Impacts of Aid to Poor Areas? Evidence from Rural 2007 Annual Economics Association meetings in Chicago. China.” Policy Research Working Paper 4084. World Bank, ———. 2007b. “Straight Talk: Aid Can Work.” Finance and De- Washington, D.C. velopment 44(1, March). Chuhan, Punam, and Vinay Bhargava. 2006. “Development Aid: Key to Balanced Global Development.” In Vinay Bhargava, ed. Global Issues for Global Citizens, An Introduction to Develop- ment Challenges. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Sundberg, Mark, and François Bourguignon. 2007. “Building Absorptive Capacity to Meet the Millennium Development Goals.” In George Mavrotas and Anthony Shorrocks, eds. Ad- vancing Development: Core Themes in Development Economics. Palgrave, McMillan Press. Sundberg, Mark, and Alan Gelb. 2006. “Africa: Making Aid Work.” Finance and Development 43(4, December).

164 Private Sector Development

Investment Climate Research Program 2007. “Investment Climate and Employment Growth.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research program used data collected from fi rms through Cai, Hongbin, Hanming Fang, and Lixin Colin Xu. 2006. investment climate enterprise surveys to examine a range of “Eat, Drink, Firms, Government: An Investigation of Cor- issues and hypotheses, including the impact of education ruption from Entertainment and Travel Costs of Chi- on worker productivity, the impact of corruption on fi rm in- nese Firms.” Working Paper 11592. National Bureau for vestment and productivity, and the sources of productivity Economic Research. differences more generally across fi rms and countries. More Cull, Robert, and Lixin Colin Xu. 2005. “Institutions, Owner- than 100 surveys were completed, with 20 more underway ship, and Finance: The Determinants of Investment among or planned. Chinese Firms.” Journal of Financial Economics 77: 117-46. The data underscored the importance of local governance, Dollar, David, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Taye Mengistae. revealing tremendous differences in investment climates 2005. “Investment Climate and Firm Performance in Devel- not just across countries but within them. For example, the oping Countries.” Economic Development and Cultural Change analysis showed that improving the local investment climate 54(1): 1-31. to match that in Shanghai would boost fi rm productivity by ———. 2006. “Investment Climate and International Integra- an average 18 percent in Bangalore, 43 percent in Dhaka, 78 tion.” World Development 34(9): 1498-1516. percent in Calcutta, and 81 percent in Karachi. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, Lixin Colin Xu, and Scott Wall- The surveys also investigated how fi rms have been able sten. 2006. “The Investment Climate and the Firm: Firm- to move from serving local markets to serving export mar- Level Evidence from China.” Economics of Transition kets. Among fi ve East Asian countries, the more developed 14(4): 629-47. the country, the greater the number of fi rms making the Mengistae, Taye, Randall Morck, and Lixin Colin Xu. 2007. transition and simultaneously serving domestic and export “Understanding Chinese vs. Indian Economic Performances markets. In the less developed countries, fi rms gain access from Firm-Level Data.” Policy Research Working Paper. to export markets largely through entry. Few fi rms make the World Bank, Washington, D.C. transition; most focus on either local or foreign markets. Project fi ndings have been disseminated at the Economics Entrepreneurship Database of Industrial Development conference, organized jointly by the London School of Economics and the World Bank, and The goal of this project was to collect cross-country, time-se- through investment climate assessments prepared by World ries data on entrepreneurship in the formal sector, measured Bank country teams. The data are available to many scholars as offi cial data on fi rm entry and exit (where possible) and through the interactive Web site www.enterprisesurveys.org. the percentage of newly registered fi rms. The project con- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconom- structed a measure of net growth of newly registered compa- ics and Growth Team—Luis Serven (Lserven@worldbank. nies and analyzed whether net growth resulted in more jobs org), Ana Fernandes, George Clarke, Giuseppe Iarossi, Taye created. Mengistae, and Lixin Colin Xu. With Sergio Kurlat; Reyes Past efforts have primarily focused on developed countries Aterido; Brooke Helppie, University of Michigan; John Halti- only. The global database of business registry data provides wanger, University of Maryland; Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford; information for better understanding the changes in business Raymond Fisman, Columbia Business School; Omkar Gos- demographics in the developing world. The project collected wami, Confederation of Indian Industry; and John Sutton, data that can be used to study which regulatory, policy, and London School of Economics. institutional factors affect fi rm entry and turnover rates. Project Code: P078329. This project used a survey instrument to collect a cross- Completion date: June 2007. country time-series of offi cial country level data on the number of all registered fi rms, new fi rms, and exited fi rms, by size, Publications sector, and ownership. New and exited fi rms were defi ned as Aterido, Reyes, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Carmen Pages. fi rms registered or delisted within the current year, following

165 the national requirements for registering a company. The tar- World Bank Group Entrepreneurship Database get was to collect data from government offi ces in more than 100 countries. This research project implemented the World Bank Group The research suggested a strong relationship between Entrepreneurship Survey to gather and disseminate informa- business entry rates and the business environment, access to tion on the importance of entrepreneurship for a dynamic fi nance, and informality. An additional fi nding this year is the economy. The survey collected data on the number of new link between entry rates and electronic registries. Both sug- and total registered fi rms, as reported by local registrars gest that operational work focusing on business environment of companies. reform and e-government initiatives in the business registry The data showed a strong relationship between entre- can impact business entry rates. preneurship, the business environment, and governance. By establishing links between the business entry rate and The survey also provided evidence on how the distribution the Doing Business indicators for Starting a Business, the of businesses among sectors varies by level of development. project has strengthened the argument for business environ- The project analyzed information on the registration process, ment reform. In addition, by demonstrating the importance and the analysis suggested that automation could greatly re- of collecting business registry data, the project hopes to en- duce the barriers to starting a business. This fi nding makes courage countries to focus on their statistical capacity. a strong case for pursuing e-government initiatives to spur Project fi ndings were presented at a conference on April 24, entrepreneurship. 2007, hosted by the Small and Medium Enterprise Depart- The project fi ndings have been presented at an NBER ment and DECRG on Entrepreneurship and Development workshop on International Differences in Entrepreneur- at the IFC. ship (May 2007) and an IFC workshop on entrepreneurship Project data are available on the Web at http://www.ifc. (May 2007). org/ifcext/sme.nsf/Content/Entrepreneurship+Database Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and (public access; no charge). The data were also incorporat- Private Sector Team—Leora Klapper (lklapper@worldbank. ed into both the World Development Indicators and the Little org), and Juan Manuel Quesada Delgado. Data Book on Private Sector Development produced in concert Project Code: P100977. with DECDG. Completion date: June 2007. Responsibility: The Small and Medium Enterprise Depart- ment, Private Sector and Finance Team—Andrei Mikhnev Publications ([email protected]), Development Research Group, Klapper, Leora. 2006. “Entrepreneurship: How Much Does the Finance and Private Sector Development—Leora Klapper, Business Environment Matter?” World Bank Viewpoint (313, and Data Group—David Cieslikowski. With Juan Manuel November). Quesada Delgado and Aaron Imperiale. ______. 2007. “Entrepreneurship: New Data on Business Cre- Project Code: P0103602. ation and How to Promote It.” World Bank Viewpoint (316, Completion date: June 2007. June). Klapper, L., R. Amit, M. Guillén, and J. Quesada. 2007. “Entre- Publications preneurship and Firm Formation across Countries.” World Klapper, Leora. 2006. “Entrepreneurship: How Much Does the Bank, Washington, D.C. Business Environment Matter?” Viewpoint series, Note 313. World Bank, Financial and Private Sector Development Vice Entry Regulation as a Barrier to Entrepreneurship Presidency, Washington, D.C. Klapper, Leora, and Juan Manuel Quesada Delgado. 2006. “En- Using a comprehensive database of more than 7 million fi rms trepreneurship and Economic Development.” Working Paper. in 35 Western and Eastern European countries, this research World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. project studied how the business environment in a country ———. 2007. “Entrepreneurship: New Data on Business Cre- drives the creation of new fi rms. The project focused on ation and How to Promote It.” Viewpoint series, Note 316. regulations governing entry, although it also examined the World Bank, Financial and Private Sector Development Vice effects of a developed fi nancial sector, a well-trained labor Presidency, Washington, D.C. force, strong enforcement of intellectual property rights, and strict labor laws. The fi ndings showed that entry regulations hamper en-

166 try, especially in industries that naturally should have high petition. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variables entry. Naturally “high entry” industries grew less, had lower analysis established a strong causal effect of competition on profi tability, and accounted for a lower share of the economy average labor productivity in the sector. in countries with onerous regulations on entry. This suggests The results show that competition in India’s retail sector entry regulations are neither benign nor welfare improving. was much lower than it was in other developing countries. The fi ndings also showed less entry into labor-intensive The analysis showed that pro-competitive reforms would industries in countries with labor regulations that restrict the likely increase labor productivity by as much as 96 percent. ability to fi re workers. This does not imply that all regula- The fi ndings suggested a need to increase product market tions inhibit entry. In particular regulations that enhance the competition in India’s retail sector. enforcement of intellectual property rights or those that lead Responsibility: Enterprise Analysis Unit, Simeon Djankov (Sd- to a better developed fi nancial sector do lead to greater entry [email protected]). in industries that do more research and development or in- Project Code: P105033. dustries that need more external fi nance. In addition, other Completion date: May 2007. aspects of the environment also matter. For instance, the general availability of skilled labor enhances entry in indus- Estimating the Returns to Capital tries that require skilled labor. Finally, the project found that onerous entry regulations forced new entrants to be larger A strong theoretical argument for focusing on access to fi - and caused incumbent fi rms in naturally high-entry indus- nance is that fi nancial market imperfections can result in tries to grow more slowly. large ineffi ciencies, in which fi rms with productive invest- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance Team— ment opportunities under-invest. Lack of access to fi nance is Leora Klapper ([email protected]). a frequent complaint of micro enterprises, which account for Project Code: P093617. a large share of employment in developing countries. How- Completion date: October 2007. ever, assessing the extent to which a lack of capital affects their business profi ts is complicated by the fact that business Publications investment is likely to be correlated with a host of unmea- Klapper, L., L. Laeven, and R. Rajan. 2006. “Entry Regulation sured characteristics of the owner and the fi rm, such as entre- as a Barrier to Entrepreneurship.” Journal of Financial Eco- preneurial ability and demand shocks. nomics 82: 591-629. This project experimentally estimated the return to capital in Mexican micro enterprises. It sought to determine wheth- Competition and Labor Productivity in India’s Retail er the average small retail fi rm had a high return on capital, Sector suggesting that it lacked fi nance, or a low return, suggesting that it lacked management expertise. This was only the The retail and wholesale sector in India has been growing second experimental evaluation of returns to capital, and the at close to 10 percent a year and a retail boom is anticipated fi rst to directly relate such an evaluation to access to fi nance. in the near future. However, policy-makers worry that the The project collected a new panel survey of micro enter- sector is too ineffi cient to sustain this level of growth. Policy prises. It reported on the results of a randomized experiment initiatives to improve effi ciency are virtually nonexistent that gave cash and capital stock to small retail fi rms, providing because not much is known about what drives effi ciency in an exogenous shock to capital. The analysis found that this the sector. shock generated large increases in profi ts, with the effects This research project provided a fi rst analysis of the deter- concentrated on fi rms that were more fi nancially constrained. minants of effi ciency in the sector. It developed a clear and The estimated return to capital was at least 20 to 33 percent unambiguous message that the future performance of the per month, much higher than market interest rates, with sector will depend crucially on pro-competitive reforms. more fi nancially constrained fi rms having higher returns. The project analyzed the effects of product market competi- The operational implication is that more attention needs tion on the average productivity of labor in India’s retail sec- to be paid to the fi nancial needs of micro enterprises. That is, tor. The analysis was based on a data set compiled by the more should be done to expand access to fi nance, rather than World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The data covered 1,948 to subsidize interest rates. Expanded access to fi nance would retail stores located in 41 cities in India. According to the generate high returns that would more than cover the inter- survey, 62 percent of the stores did not face signifi cant com- est rates typically charged by micro lenders.

167 The project produced a paper that has been submitted to the fi nance and private sector development agenda. Spe- to The World Bank Economic Review, and is expected to cifi cally, the research can provide an indication of how spatial be used in policy discussions in the region. The results have disparities—related to different industrial composition and already been incorporated into the Latin America and Ca- integration—infl uence productivity growth. ribbean Department’s fl agship report on informality. The Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment Cli- project has also contributed to research capacity by train- mate Team—Ana M. Fernandes (afernandes@worldbank. ing a Mexican survey fi rm (DATA OPM) to implement a org), and Rita Almeida. With Vertica Aggarwal, George Mason fi eld experiment and to carry out experimental measures of University, and Jose Daniel Reyes, Georgetown University. risk aversion. Project Code: P098760. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Completion date: October 2008. Private Sector Development Team—David McKenzie (dm- [email protected]) and Bob Cull. With Christopher Dynamics and Informal Sector and Economic Growth Woodruff, U.S., UCSD. Project Code: P097374. Limited data and a focus on formal fi rms means relatively Completion date: June 2007. little is known about the productivity of informal fi rms, the barriers they face for growth, and their spillover effects on Agglomeration Economies: The Role of Horizontal and the formal economy. This project aims to conduct new, major Vertical Linkages surveys of informal fi rms, which can be used to study the dynamics of the informal sector, measure their interaction with The main objective of this project is to study how measures the formal sector, and provide an empirical basis for model- of concentration and diversity of economic activity in a re- ing the aggregate growth effects. gion affect fi rm-level productivity growth. The project pro- The project will link a representative fi rm survey to the vides micro-evidence on the form and magnitude of knowl- Indonesian Family Life Survey Round 4 (to take place in edge spillovers for a middle-income country. The analysis early 2008). It will include a tracer survey of the life history of investigates the extent to which agglomeration economies the fi rm’s owner and questions on interactions between for- are related to the presence and productivity of competitors, mal and informal fi rms. A panel survey of micro enterprises in suppliers, and clients in the region. Sri Lanka will also be used for fi rm experiments. Previous studies have restricted the analysis to the relation To date the work in Sri Lanka has revealed new sugges- between economic growth and general measures of agglom- tions for how to measure fi rm profi ts, a vital component of eration, such as concentration and diversity. The mechanisms evaluation efforts in micro fi nance, business training, and driving these results remain imprecise and unclear. Further, other small and medium enterprise interventions. most previous studies use employment growth to proxy for The analysis will report on a variety of experiments and productivity growth, which requires the restrictive assump- make recommendations for collecting profi t data. In partic- tion that employment and productivity growth co-vary posi- ular, it will (i) examine how far self-reported profi ts can be tively across regions. This project assesses which type of ex- reconciled with reports of revenue minus expenses through ternalities is more favorable to local productivity growth. more detailed questions; (ii) examine recall errors in sales and The analysis assumes that knowledge spillovers can be report on the results of experiments that randomly allocate measured by estimating gains in plant-level total factor pro- account books to fi rms; and (iii) ask fi rms how much fi rms ductivity. Therefore, it estimates measures of plant-level like theirs under-report sales in surveys like this, and have total factor productivity as residuals from production func- research assistants observe the fi rms at random 15-16 times tions using semi-parametric methods. The analysis also uses during a month to provide measures for comparison. The au- ordinary least squares and fi xed effects regressions of average thors conclude that fi rms underreport revenues by about 30 productivity at the industry and region level on measures of percent, that account diaries have signifi cant effects on both competition and concentration of economic activity. revenues and expenses but not on profi ts, and that simply Plant-level manufacturing census data are from the Na- asking about profi ts provides a more accurate measure of fi rm tional Statistics Institute in Chile (ENIA). Project results are profi ts than detailed questions on revenues and expenses. not yet available. The project has submitted a paper to the Journal of De- This research on the existence and importance of agglom- velopment Economics. Ongoing research is expected to in- eration economies can infl uence policy discussions related fl uence World Bank Private Sector Development policy in

168 Indonesia and Sri Lanka through new insights on the nature Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction of the informal sector, and the areas through which policy can and Economic Management 4 —Nancy Benjamin (nbenja- aid the growth of fi rms. [email protected]). With Aly Mbaye, Center for Research Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and in Applied Economics. Private Sector Development Team—David McKenzie (dm- Project Code: P102232. [email protected]). With Suresh de Mel; University of Completion date: January 2009. Peradeniya; and Christopher Woodruff, U.S., UCSD. Project Code: P0100108. The Informal Sector in the Senegalese Economy: Policies Completion date: June 2009. for Productive Regulation

Publications This research project developed a proposal for a subsequent Woodruff, Christopher, David McKenzie, and Suresh de Mel. project to collect and analyze data on the informal sector in 2007. “Don’t Ask How the Sausage Is Made.” World Bank French West Africa. The ultimate goal was to improve policy Policy Research Working Paper 4229. World Bank, Washing- options for productive regulation of the informal sector in the ton, D.C. least developed countries. The proposal used Senegal as a case study because of the existence of preliminary data. The Informal Sector, Business Climate and Economic The project investigated appropriate tax policy for the in- Growth in the West African Economic and Monetary formal sector, regulatory regimes for the informal sector, Union Countries: Case Studies relations between the informal and formal sectors, and migration from the formal to the informal sector. The analysis What are the constraints to investment and growth among highlighted the importance of sampling from large as well as informal enterprises in West Africa? What are the institu- small informal enterprises, the role of informal fi rms in in- tional and other forces affecting the sector and its contribu- ternational trade, and the role of different institutions and tion to economic growth? The objectives of this project are to networks in different countries. generate information on the structure of the informal sector The main output of this research preparation grant was a in three West African countries on the determinants of the proposal for further research, which has been funded. Thus, informal sector, the consequences of informality, and broad the main impact will follow from the subsequent study. directions for policy. Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction A substantial literature has developed on the informal sec- and Economic Management 4 —Nancy Benjamin (nbenja- tor in other regions. Less work has been done in this area [email protected]). With Aly Mbaye, Research and Train- in Africa, and little work has been done in West Africa. The ing Center for Economic and Social Development. characteristics of the informal sector are distinct in West Af- Project Code: P090668. rica, partly because its share of the economy – more than 80 Completion date: April 2005. percent – dominates the formal sector, and also because fi rm sizes vary greatly within the informal sector. Informal Sector Competition in Latin America and the This project will conduct surveys of informal and formal Caribbean businesses in the capitals of the three countries. The survey sample will be drawn from existing data bases of informal This project investigated whether fi rms that complain about and formal fi rms, and from household survey data. Thus far informal competition differ from fi rms that do not. Are fi rms the researchers have worked on designing the survey instru- that most resemble informal fi rms more affected by informal ment, identifying data bases in the three countries, develop- competition? Does the business environment exacerbate for- ing the sampling strategy, and setting up survey teams. The mal fi rms’ perception of the impact of informal competition surveys will begin shortly. Many African countries have tar- on their activities? The project investigated the effects of in- geted growth in their second-round Poverty Reduction Strat- formal competition on formal fi rms in Latin America. egy Papers. Given the dominating share of the informal sec- Using data collected from 4,583 manufacturing fi rms across tor in the economy, these growth targets cannot be reached ten countries in Latin America, the analysis tested whether without improving the contribution of the informal sector. fi rms that complain more about informal competition largely Improving the policy environment for the informal sector resemble informal fi rms. The analysis used probit to estimate will require a greater understanding of its circumstances. a model using the Enterprise Surveys dataset for 10 coun-

169 tries. This was the fi rst time that a new, comprehensive, fi rm inter-fi rm productivity gap was lower in countries that were level data set was used in this context. more developed fi nancially. The results suggest that fi nancial The researchers found that fi rms most resembling infor- development encourages investment in innovation in small mal fi rms in their characteristics (small, little access to fi - fi rms. By doing so, it improves the inter-fi rm allocation of in- nance, etc.) were more concerned about competition from vestment in innovation. The results also indicate that it is the informal sector. Moreover, fi rms operating in a business banking development, and not stock markets, that matters to environment in which regulatory and tax obligations were innovation in small fi rms. comparatively onerous and compliance with these obliga- Responsibility: Monitoring, Analysis and Policy Unit, World tions by formal fi rms was high were severely constrained by Bank, and IFC—Siddharth Sharma ([email protected]). competition from the informal sector. Project Code: P0103460. The analysis and results may be useful in identifying the Completion date: January 2007. profi le of fi rms most affected by informal competition. Fur- ther, the project’s conclusions may be helpful in designing Publications policy that would specifi cally target those fi rms that are hard- Sharma, Siddharth. 2007. “Financial Development and Innova- est hit by informal competition, and in creating incentives to tion in Small Firms.” Working Paper, International Finance reduce the level of informal activities in the country. Corporation (of the World Bank Group), Washington, D.C. Responsibility: Enterprise Analysis-World Bank—Francesca Unpublished working paper. Lamanna (fl [email protected]). With Alvaro Gonzalez and Elio Enrique Valladares. Evaluating the Impact of Mexico’s Small and Medium Project Code: P0105454. Enterprise Programs Using Panel Data Completion date: June 2007. This research project evaluated the effects of Mexico’s largest Access to Finance and Firm Performance support programs for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and helped the Government of Mexico to build capacity for This project aimed to study how fi nancial development af- monitoring and evaluating its many SME programs. fects innovation in small fi rms. Does fi nancial development Although experimental and quasi-experimental ap- improve small fi rms’ access to fi nance for research and devel- proaches to evaluating social programs in developing coun- opment activities, leading to more innovation in small fi rms? tries are becoming more common, their use in evaluating Does the form of fi nancial development – whether banks or enterprise-based programs is rare even in OECD countries. stock markets – matter? This research on Mexico is the fi rst rigorous evaluation of Previous research on fi nancial development and growth that country’s SME support programs, and among a handful across countries found that fi nancial development had a more of quasi-experimental impact evaluations of such programs positive effect on growth in smaller fi rms. Research on re- in developing countries. search and development has found that smaller fi rms spend Quasi-experimental approaches were used to compare the less on innovation but produce more innovation per dollar performance over time of SME program benefi ciaries against spent on research and development. This project combined a control group of enterprises with comparable observable at- these strands of research to ask if fi nancial development has tributes that did not participate in SME programs. Propen- a disproportionately positive effect on research and devel- sity score matching was used to identify the control group, opment investment in small fi rms. The project was unique and selection bias was addressed through various methods in using cross-country, fi rm level data to study whether the including Heckman corrections and difference-in-differ- effect of fi nancial development on innovation varies by ences techniques. Statistical and econometric analysis was fi rm size. The project used fi rm level survey data from 57 complemented by more qualitative case studies of a sample countries. The data were from the World Bank Enterprise of benefi ciaries to gain insights into the motivation for and Surveys, which were conducted during 2003-06. nature of program participation, and its perceived benefi ts Compared with large fi rms in the same industry, small and weaknesses. fi rms were more likely to do research and development, and The following data sources were used: (1) pre- and post- to spend more on it, in countries that were more developed program data on random samples of program benefi ciaries fi nancially. Moreover, smaller fi rms produced more innova- and a control group collected by the Mexican Ministry of tion per dollar spent on research and development, but this Labor in 1995 and 1997; and (2) three periodic fi rm surveys

170 – ENESTYC – fi elded by the Mexican national statistical When Do Creditor Rights Work? offi ce (INEGI) in 1995, 1999, and 2001, which were linked to panel establishment data from INEGI’s annual survey of Creditor-friendly laws are generally associated with more manufacturing and to the government’s administrative data- credit to the private sector and deeper fi nancial markets. But bases on SME program benefi ciaries. laws mean little if they are not upheld in the courts. This The research found considerable heterogeneity across ob- research project hypothesized that the effectiveness of credi- servationally similar enterprises and evidence that fi rms self- tor rights was strongly linked to the effi ciency of contract en- select systematically into SME programs, often resulting in forcement. The project sought to understand the conditions estimated program impacts that are mixed or even negative. under which reforms of secured transactions laws would lead The implication is that propensity score matching on observ- to increased credit to the private sector. ables alone is inadequate, but when coupled with difference- Other research on this subject has looked at the effects in-differences methods using panel data, can turn negative of changing laws, without taking into account the judicial or insignifi cant program impacts into positive and statistically environment in which those laws were implemented. This signifi cant outcomes. project took this into account. The analysis was based on fi rm Project fi ndings were presented at the following work- level data from 27 European countries in 2002 and 2005. shops and conferences: the Workshop on Evaluating SME The fi ndings showed that fi rms had more access to bank Programs: Mexican and International Experiences, jointly credit in countries with better creditor rights, but the asso- organized by the World Bank Institute, the Latin America ciation between creditor rights and bank credit was much and Caribbean Department of the World Bank, and the Sec- weaker in countries with ineffi cient courts. Exploiting the retary of Economy, Mexico City, September 2004; the Mexi- panel dimension of the data and the fact that creditor rights co Workshop on Labor Market Policies, jointly organized by changed over time, the analysis showed that the effect of a the World Bank Institute, the Inter-American Development change in creditor rights on change in bank credit increased Bank, and the Secretary of Labor and Social Services, Mexico with court enforcement. In particular, a unit increase in the City, August 2005; and the Regional Conference on Evaluat- creditor rights index increased the share of bank loans in fi rm ing SME Programs: Central American and International Ex- investment by 27 percent in a country at the 10th percentile periences, jointly organized by the World Bank Institute and of the enforcement time distribution (Lithuania). However, CEMPROMYPE, Guatemala City, May 2007. the increase was only 7 percent in a country at the 80th per- Responsibility: East Asia and Pacifi c Region, Human Devel- centile of this distribution (Kyrgyzstan). The fi ndings showed opment Sector Department— Hong Tan (Htan@world- that legal protections of creditors and effi cient courts were bank.org), and Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- strong complements. ment (LCSPR), Poverty Sector—Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, Mon- LCSPP. With Roberto Flores, Marcela Rubio-Sanchez, and itoring, Analysis Policy Unit—Simeon Djankov (Sdjankov@ Monica Tinajero. worldbank.org) and Siddharth Sharma. Project Code: P08229. Project Code: P103783. Completion date: June 2005. Completion date: May 2007.

Publications Publication Tan, Hong, and Gladys Lopez-Acevedo. 2005. “Evaluating Safavian, Mehnaz, and Siddharth Sharma. Forthcoming. “When Do Training Programs for Small and Medium Enterprises: Les- Creditors’ Rights Work?” Journal of Comparative Economics. sons from Mexico.” Policy Research Working Paper 0-3339, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Tan, Hong, Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, and others. 2005. “Evaluat- ing Mexico’s Small and Medium Enterprise Programs Using Panel Firm Data.” World Bank, World Bank Institute, Wash- ington, D.C. Unpublished report. ———. 2007. “Evaluating Mexico’s Small and Medium Enter- prise Programs.” World Bank, Mexico Country Management Unit and World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C.

171 Social Development; Gender, Social Policies

Legacy of Social Inequality in Expectations, Norms, and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics Governance and Growth Team—Karla Hoff ([email protected]). With Sonal Vats, Mayuresh Kshetramade The purpose of the project was to measure the willingness Mukta Joshi, Emily Wylde, Manoj Gupta, and Shiv Mishra. to punish violations of norms of cooperation. The research Project Code: P091384. set out to understand how changes in formal aspects of gov- Completion date: June 2007. ernance are consistent with the persistence of a cluster of economic institutions that make inequality persistent, in par- Publication ticular in the informal enforcement of property rights. Be- Hoff, Karla, Mayuresh Kshetramade, and Ernst Fehr. 2007. fore Indian independence in 1947, property and contracting “Norm Enforcement under Social Discrimination.” World rights were concentrated in the high castes, whereas the low Bank, Washington, D.C. Unpublished. castes were denied property rights in land and had limited rights to contract even over their own labor. Social Status in India and Political Economy in Transition Experiments using third-party punishment games are Economies a way to identify the content and intensity of social norms. The experiment in this project focused on the willingness This project had two separate and unrelated parts. The fi rst of low-caste and high-caste individuals to punish violations part used experiments in India to study the effect of the of norms of cooperation. Thus, it looked at the most basic legacy of social inequality on responses to incentives. The building block of social order in a community—the extent second part used a simple theoretical model and empirical to which social norms support cooperation and limit op- test to study the effect of political alternation on governance portunism. To measure the willingness to punish violations in transition economies. of cooperation norms, the analysis implemented a sequen- Social Status in India. This project used caste in India to tial exchange game with third-party punishment. Subjects study the factors that contribute to the persistence of inequal- were drawn from the two ends of the caste hierarchy: low ity. Previous experimental research in psychology has stud- and high. ied the effect of “stereotype threat” on performance within The fi ndings showed that on average high-caste men pun- specifi c domains of the stereotype. This project, which is an ished defection much more harshly than low-caste men did, extension of the literature on stereotype threat, shows how and that this result was not explicable by wealth or education social identities can create inequality of performance in do- differences. Unlike all previously studied groups, low-caste mains previously unfamiliar to the subjects. men did not punish out-group members who hurt in-group The data were from experiments in a village in Uttar members more than in-group members who hurt out-group Pradesh, where 168 low-caste and 168 high-caste boys were members. The absence of in-group affi liation among low- given mazes to solve under piece-rate incentives. In mixed- caste men could account for the difference in the level of caste groups, the high-caste boys solved 7 percent more maz- punishment between high and low-caste individuals. es than the low-caste boys did among subjects whose caste Project fi ndings have been presented at the University was not publicly revealed. By contrast, the high-caste boys of Manchester, July 2007; the conference Measuring Pref- solved 38 percent more mazes than the low-caste boys did erences in a Social Context, University of Texas at Dallas, among subjects whose caste was publicly revealed. These May 2007; the Economists’ Forum 2007, World Bank, April fi ndings provides evidence of the role of social identities cre- 2007; the University of Maryland, School of Public Policy, ated under a rigidly stratifi ed regime in making inequality March 2007; the George Washington University, Washington, persistent long after the legal barriers and the conditions that D.C., March 2007; Harvard University, March 2007; Cornell gave rise to those barriers have changed. University, November 2006; the World Bank’s Poverty and The research was discussed in a recent World Bank World Applied Micro Seminar Series, November 2006; and the Development Report, and has been replicated in South Africa MacArthur Research Network on the Effects of Inequality, (with black and white subjects). It may in the future be test- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, October 2006. ed in China (with illegal vs. legal urban residents).

172 Political Economy in Transition Economies The Economics of Reciprocity Networks The second part of the project sought to understand whether political turnover at the onset in transition econo- If a kin member achieves economic success in the modern mies contributed to the development of the rule of law. The sector, his less successful kin invariably besiege him to help project developed a measure of political alternation and used them out. The need to meet such demands can lower the it to test the effect of political turnover on governance. The productivity of the kin member in the modern sector and ad- data were from a vast array of public sources. versely affect his incentives in other ways. Since modern sec- The preliminary empirical suggested that political turn- tor employers can foresee these problems, migrant kin mem- over in the period of nascent liberalization of the transition bers (especially the early migrants) face an entry barrier to economies helped in promoting the establishment of institu- the modern sector. Alternatively, if the kin group recognizes tions to build the rule of law. Turnover reduced the incen- that it will lose some of its most productive members, it may tives for fi rms to buy special rules from the party in power; take collective action ex ante to erect exit barriers for such it increased the incentives of fi rms and politicians to support members. If that is the case, then the kin system, which was fair, open rules that would guarantee a modicum of protec- once a benefi cial arrangement, may become a poverty trap. tion of rights regardless of who holds power. This research project constructed simple principal-agent The project fi ndings have been presented at Stanford models to understand who bears the cost of nepotism, and University, the London School of Economics-Cornell confer- a simple model of a coordination game to understand rural- ence on behavioral economics, a World Bank Development urban migration. The project studied the behavior of kin Economics seminar, the Brookings Institution, and Columbia group members facing a modern economy, and identifi ed the University, New York. Data from the work on India are avail- nature of the network effects that might cause them to take able on the Web at http://www.povertyactionlab.com/data/. collective decisions that are ex ante ineffi cient. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- This analysis does not contend that the kin system must nomics and Growth Team—Karla Hoff (khoff@worldbank. necessarily lead to such dismal outcomes. Early migrants org). With Branko Milanovic, Priyanka Pandey, World Bank; might indeed work to facilitate the migration of other mem- Shale Horowitz, University of Wisconsin; and Jeren Kabaeva, bers; and the kin group as a whole, recognizing the long-term World Bank. benefi ts from having more and more economically successful Project Code: P087592. members in the modern sector, would facilitate the process Completion date: June 2007. of migration. If that happened, then the kin system would turn out to be a benefi cial institution not only in the pre- Publications modern economy, but also during the process of transition to Hoff, Karla, and Priyanka Pandey. 2005. “Opportunity Is Not a modern economy. The institution would adapt in response Everything: How Belief Systems and Mistrust Shape Re- to structural changes in the economy in a way that would sponses to Economic Incentives. Economics of Transition Spe- benefi t all its members. cial issue on Institutions and Economic Performance 13(2, July): Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics 445-72. http://ssrn.com/abstract=776989. and Growth Team—Karla Hoff ([email protected]). With ———. 2005. “The Persistent Effects of Discrimination and the Arijit Sen, Indian Statistical Institute. Role of Social Identity.” Revision requested by Review of Eco- Project Code: P093865. nomics and Statistics. Completion date: June, 2005 ———. 2006. “Discrimination, Social Identity, and Durable In- equalities.” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings Publications (May): 206-11. Hoff, Karla, and Arijit Sen. 2005. “The Extended Family System Hoff, Karla R., Shale Horowitz, and Branko Milanovic. 2005. and Market Interactions.” In Christopher Barrett, ed. The So- “Political Alternation, Regardless of Ideology, Diminishes cial Economics of Poverty: On Identities, Groups, Communities, Influence Buying: Lessons from Transitions in Former Com- and Networks. Routledge. munist States.” Policy Outlook, Carnegie Endowment for In- ______. 2006. “The Kin System as a Poverty Trap?” In Samuel ternational Peace, Washington, D.C. Bowles, Steven Durlauf, and Karla Hoff, eds. Poverty Traps. ———. 2006. “Transitions from Communism: Political Alterna- Princeton University Press. tion as a Restraint on Investing in Influence.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Unpublished.

173 Social Customs and Women’s Status in Rural Pakistan Ghazala Mansuri ([email protected]), the Sustain- able Rural and Urban Development team, and Hanan Jacoby. This research project seeks to understand the role of culture With the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. and social norms in creating and sustaining the position of Project Code: P084150. women in society. It investigates the causal link between Completion date: December 2007. particular norms and practices and an outcome of interest, such as women’s bargaining position within marriage, or the Publications educational opportunities of girls. Mansuri, Ghazala, and H. Jacoby. 2007. “School Enrollment The role of culture and social norms in shaping the posi- and Income Gains: A Disaggregation of Period, Cohort and tion of women in society has been studied for some time by Age Effects Using Panel Data.” World Bank, Washington, non-economists. However, there is little generalizable evi- D.C. Mimeo. dence that establishes any causal relationship between spe- Mansuri, Ghazala, and H. Jacoby. 2007. “Watta Satta: Exchange cifi c norms or institutions and a measurable outcome, such as Marriage and Women’s Welfare in Rural Pakistan.” Policy Re- women’s economic or psycho-social welfare bargaining posi- search Working Paper 4126. World Bank, Washington, D.C. tion within marriage, or the educational opportunities of girls. Mansuri, Ghazala, and H. Jacoby. 2007. “Crossing Boundaries: This is the lacuna that this research begins to fi ll. Community, Caste and School Enrollment in South Asia.” The project designed and fi elded a detailed household World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. survey in rural Pakistan in 2004-2005, as a follow-up to the 2001-2002 Pakistan Rural Household Survey (PRHS). Marriage Transitions and HIV/AIDS in Malawi Detailed data were collected on martial customs, social constraints – including mobility restrictions as well as ac- The goal of this research project is to understand how socio- companying data on zaat (caste) – and location. Analyses economic conditions in a community affect an individual’s of these data have yielded three papers so far, as well as risk of human immunodefi ciency virus (HIV) infection. The much of the analysis in the World Bank’s Pakistan Country project seeks to understand the dynamic and interacting roles Gender Assessment. that poverty, gender inequality, partnership patterns (pre- The project fi ndings show how informal institutions that marital and marital), and transactional sexual relations play in apparently restrict marital choice can be welfare enhancing spreading HIV. The main it asks is the following: What forms for women where formal legal structures are weak and de fac- might effective policies take for prevention of HIV among to access to justice is even poorer. The fi ndings also highlight the youth in Malawi in particular and in Eastern and South- important gender differences in school access, controlling for ern Africa in general? school distance. In particular, girls are much less likely to at- The objective of the project is to better inform the design tend school if the school is located in a different community of policy efforts to prevent the transmission of HIV. How- from where the child resides. This effect is particularly se- ever, convincing evidence on the complex, causal relation- vere if the child also belongs to a lower status zaat (caste) ships between background characteristics (such as education than the majority of households in the school community or and poverty), partner selection, quality of marriage, and the settlement. degree of risky sexual behaviors these choices imply is lack- The work on schooling is ongoing and the researchers plan ing. This study aims to fi ll this gap in evidence by collecting to launch a pilot program to test the hypotheses assessed in longitudinal data on a randomly selected sample of never- the paper “Crossing Boundaries: Community, Caste and married young people that combining information on socio- School Enrollment in South Asia.” economic background, HIV status, characteristics of sexual Project fi ndings have been presented at a World Bank partners, and sexual behavior. workshop, Islamabad (May 2007); Duke University Devel- The project will collect longitudinal data using three de- opment Workshop (April 2007); dissemination workshops for tailed household surveys annually, starting in July 2007. It will the Pakistan Country Gender Assessment, Islamabad and also perform 11 quarterly in-depth partnership interviews to Karachi, Pakistan (May 2006); a Poverty and Applied Micro collect data on sensitive information regarding sexual behav- Seminar, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (April 2006); a work- ior and partners. Finally, it will include testing for HIV (and shop in Karachi, Pakistan (September 2006); NEUDC (Sep- possibly other sexually transmitted infections) for all respon- tember 2005); and BREAD (September 2005). dents at least twice to assess prevalence and incidence rates. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team-

174 Kathleen Beegle ([email protected]) and Berk Ozler. The Macro and Welfare Impacts of Notional Deﬁ ned With Michelle Poulin, University of Pennsylvania. Contribution Pension Systems in a Partial-Dynamic Project Code: P099861. General Equilibrium Model Completion date: March 2010. Many countries have implemented at least one mandatory Argentina: Social Security and Elderly Welfare earnings related pension system fi nanced on a pay-as-you-go basis and covering mostly wage earners in the public sector and This research project investigated the policy dilemma of how the urban private sector. Several countries have introduced best to provide income security in old age when a large seg- reforms that keep pay-as-you-go fi nancing arrangements ment of the working population is informally employed or but rationalize benefi t formulas and eligibility conditions by self employed. The project examined the saving and insur- moving toward notional defi ned contribution formulas. ance strategies and labor market histories of a random sample This research project addressed the question of how the of elderly households in Argentina. movement from defi cient defi ned contribution formulas to The analysis sought to answer whether the low level of notional accounts formulas affected individual behavior, the participation among workers in Argentina was a refl ection of fi nances of the pension schemes, macroeconomic dynamics, social exclusion or household choice. The analysis identifi ed and social welfare. The analysis was based on a dynamic, par- groups that may have been chosen to evade the system on tial-equilibrium, macro-simulation model calibrated to repro- their own or in collaboration with their employers. duce conditions generally observed in middle-income coun- The fi ndings showed the labor market only offered a vi- tries. The model followed over time different age-cohorts of able alternative to the pension system for those who always individuals in the labor force and formalized their behavior had and continued to enjoy good labor prospects. Labor regarding savings, labor supply, and retirement. Most of the market participation did not appear to compensate for the data were from country sources, particularly countries in the decline in pension coverage in Argentina. Although participa- Middle East and North Africa region. The model provided a tion in the labor market could have been an important liveli- useful benchmark by indicating what would be the optimal hood protection strategy for older people with high potential response. Moreover, the results can be used to test the theo- earnings, it was unlikely to be an effective strategy for older retical consistency of their assumptions, for instance, regard- people with low potential productivity. The opportunities ing retirement patterns. and benefi ts from “active” ageing appeared skewed toward The analysis produced four main results. First, moving the healthier and wealthier among the old, at least as far as from “bad” defi ned benefi t formulas to non-defi ned benefi t remunerated work. formulas increased labor supply, savings, and retirement age. Those who continued to work in old age were individu- Second, the impacts on savings were modest, but impacts on als who reported the longest employment histories. Further- labor supply and retirement decisions were important. Third, more, the working elderly in the sample were not only those the most critical element in the new benefi t formula was whose predicted labor incomes were relatively high, but also life-time earnings. And fourth, if countries cannot not move those who had contributed to the pension system for fewer to non-defi ned contribution formulas, they should at least years throughout their working lives. aim for accrual rates that increase with age and that are an- Responsibility: Latin America and Caribbean Region, Public nounced at the time reform, even if initially these have to be Sector Unit— Truman Packard ([email protected]) a above the non-defi ned contribution equivalent. and Evelina Bertranou. With Armando Barrientos, Univer- The project fi ndings have been presented at various con- sity of Sussex; Carlos Grushka, Superintendency of Pension ferences in the Middle East and North Africa region (in Bah- Funds, Government of Argentina; and Abigail Barr, Univer- rain, Lebanon, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, and Morocco), sity of Oxford. and at the Economist Forum at the World Bank. Project Code: P094088. Responsibility: Middle East and North Africa Region, Human Completion date: January 2007. Development Group—Michal Rutkowski (Mrutkowski@ worldbank.org). With David Robalino, Middle East and Publications North Africa Region, Human Development Group; and Mas- World Bank. 2007. “Argentina: Facing the Challenge of Age- simo Sabbatini. ing and Social Security.” Sector Report 34154. World Bank, Project Code: P085691. Washington, D.C. Completion date: June 2007.

175 Publication 2004); Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, Robalino, David, and Massimo Sabbatini. Forthcoming. “The Tilburg, The Netherlands (September 2004); European Uni- Macro and Welfare Impact of Notional Defined Contribu- versity Institute, Florence, Italy (October 2004); Department tion Pension System within a Partial-Dynamic General of Economics, University of Maastricht, Maastricht, The Equilibrium Model.” Netherlands (November 2004); University of Paris (Paris I), Paris, France (February 2005); Making Work Pay Con- Effects of Unemployment Insurance ference, European Union, Brussels, Belgium (March 2005); Netherlands Bureau of Policy Analysis (CPB), The Hague, In 1998, Slovenia sharply reduced access to unemployment The Netherlands (March 2005); Department of Economics, benefi ts and improved employment services and the moni- University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland (June 2005); So- toring of recipients. Using administrative data sets, the proj- cial Research Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark (September ect analyzed the effects of these changes on the duration 2005); Institute of Economics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Es- of unemployment for recipients and on several characteris- tonia (February 2005); and PRAXIS, Talinn, Estonia (Febru- tics of their post-unemployment job—wages, duration, and ary 2005). precariousness. The analysis relied on duration models and Responsibility: South Asia Region, Human Development Sec- earnings functions. tor—Milan Vodopivec ([email protected]). With In Estonia, which overhauled its unemployment benefi ts Jan van Ours, Tilburg University; Raul Eamets, University system in 2001, the benefi ts for some categories of workers of Tartu, Estonia; and Jakob Tomse, University of Ljubljana, were expected to increase by a multiple of fi ve or more. Us- Slovenia. ing labor force survey data, the project assessed the effects of Project Code: P087059. the changes on labor force participation and re-employment Completion date: June 2006. incentives. The analysis identifi ed sizable disincentive effects of the Publications unemployment insurance system. In Slovenia, the probabil- Leetmaa, Reelika, Raul Eamets, Andres Võrk, and Jaan Masso. ity of fi nding a job increased sharply for recipients whose en- 2005. “How Unemployment Insurance System Affects La- titlement period was shortened; the probability remained vir- bor Market Behavior: The Case of Estonia.” University of tually unchanged for those whose entitlement period did not Tartu. Processed. change. The reform had a positive effect on the job-fi nding van Ours, Jan, and Milan Vodopivec. 2005. “Changes in Benefit rate in the third month of unemployment, probably through Entitlement and Job Finding, The Slovenian Experiment.” the reduction in benefi ts that occurred in the fourth month of European Economy, Special Report (2): 150-61. receiving benefi ts. In Estonia, similar spikes were detected ———. 2006. “How Shortening the Potential Duration of Un- 100 days after the start of the receipt of the benefi t, when the employment Benefits Affects the Duration of Unemploy- replacement rate also dropped signifi cantly. ment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.” Journal of La- The analysis of the Slovenian unemployment insurance bor Economics 24(2): 351:78. reform also revealed that shortening the maximum benefi t ———. Forthcoming. “Does Reducing Unemployment Insur- duration did not affect the post-unemployment wages of re- ance Generosity Reduce Job Match Quality?” Journal of cipients. This suggested that the higher job-fi nding rate fol- Public Economics. lowing the reduction of benefi t duration was produced not by a higher probability of accepting a job, but by a higher prob- Tackling Poverty in the Short and Long Run: An ability of receiving a job offer—a sign of greater effectiveness Assessment of the Experience of Conditional Cash in job search activity. Transfer Programs The project fi ndings have been presented at conferences and seminars at the following: Research School of Social Sci- A growing number of countries, in particular in Latin America, ences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia have implemented conditional cash transfer programs. These (July 2004); Department of Economics, University of Mel- programs seek to provide poor households with a minimum bourne, Melbourne, Australia (August 2004); Department of consumption fl oor. And in making transfers conditional, the Economics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia (August programs seek to encourage the accumulation of human capi- 2004); Ministry of Labor, Beijing, China (September 2004); tal and break the vicious cycle whereby poverty is transmit- IZA prize ceremony conference, Berlin, Germany (October ted across generations.

176 This research project aims to provide an assessment of conditional cash transfer programs as an instrument of social policy. The project will pay particular attention to the following four themes: • The conceptual basis for understanding conditional cash transfer programs and their role in social policy • The evidence of impacts on consumption poverty, education, health, and nutrition outcomes • The evidence on the effects of alternative design features, such as choice of targeting methods, size of transfers, and types of conditions • The role of conditional cash transfers and similar programs in the context of social protection policies. The project will provide strong analytical and empirical underpinnings for the World Bank’s growing involvement in policy advice and operational work related to conditional cash transfer programs. Although there are a reasonably large number of individual evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs, there is no up-to-date, comprehensive report that reviews, discusses, and draws out the policy implications from these individual evaluations. Moreover, the reviews that currently exist largely focus on the experience with these programs in Latin America, ignoring the fi ndings from other developing countries. Responsibility: Development Economics, Vice President’s Of- fi ce—Ariel Fiszbein (Afi [email protected]), and Norbert Schady, Francisco Ferreira, Margaret Grosh, Niall Kelleher, Pedro Olinto, Emmanuel Skoufi as, and Christine Weigand (all with the World Bank). With Orazio Attanasio, University College London; Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania; Tim Besley, London School of Economics; Alan de Brauw, IFPRI; Alain de Janvry, University of California, Berkeley; Maria Victoria Fazio, International Monetary Fund; Paul Gertler, University of California, Berkeley; John Hoddinott, International Food Policy Research Institute; Santiago Levy; and Christina Paxson, Princeton University. Project Code: P104163. Completion date: December 2008.

177 Social Protection and Risk Management

Civil War, Crime, and Violence In addition to the publications listed below, the project produced a large set of research papers, which have been pre- Violence is a key reason for the broadening chasm between sented at conferences and workshops, published in academic developed and developing countries. The social systems cre- journals, and posted on the project’s Web site. In addition ated by war give rise to greater poverty and inequality, which to the continued update of the project’s Web site, there is a in turn increase crime and violence. In the 1990s, violence project newsletter. For papers and datasets, see http://econ. created approximately 13 million refugees and 38 million in- worldbank.org/programs/confl ict. Several of the papers were ternally displaced persons world-wide. Moreover, these enor- collected in a special issue of the Journal of Peace Research mous social costs have been born disproportionately by the (May 2004; see http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/vol41/issue3/ /). developing world. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment Cli- This research project set out to identify the causes of vio- mate Team—Ibrahim Elbadawi ([email protected]), lence in war and crime. There had been little work done us- Paul Collier, Norman Loayza, and Phil Keefer. With Nicho- ing econometrics and modern statistical approaches to study las Sambins, Yale University; Anke Hoeffl er, Center for the civil war, crime, and violence. Study of African Economies; Havard Hegre, International The project primarily used cross-country analysis to iden- Peace Research Institute of Oslo; Michael Doyle, Columbia tify trends and features of confl ict that are common across de- University; Edward L. Glaeser, Harvard University; Gary veloping countries. The project commissioned case studies Milante, World Bank; Marta Reynal-Querol, Univertitat and regional analyses. Data are rare on these topics because Pompeu Fabra; and Siyan Chen, World Bank. those countries where crime and confl ict are more likely Project Code: P058654. to occur also have the least capacity for data collection and Completion date: June 2007. maintenance. Still, one of the major contributions of this research project is the data that were collected and compiled. Publication The fi ndings showed that in countries where the cost of re- Collier, Paul, and Nicholas Sambanis, eds. 2005. Understanding bellion was low, civil war was most likely. Countries that could Civil War (Volumes 1 and 2). Washington, D.C.: World Bank. provide sustained economic growth were able to increase the opportunity cost of confl ict and work out of the “confl ict The Economics and Politics of Post-Conﬂ ict Transitions – trap” through development. The fi ndings also showed that Follow-up reliance on commodity exports, particularly oil, and diaspo- ras were signifi cantly related to confl ict. Economic equality After civil confl ict, fragile states often fi nd themselves at and growth tended to reduce violent crime and the risk of great risk of civil war recurrence, extreme criminal violence, confl ict, while income inequality and slow economic growth and rampant political corruption. However, post-confl ict pe- signifi cantly increased the rates of violent crime. riods also provide excellent opportunities for political reform The project highlighted the importance of economic poli- and effective aid through post-confl ict reconstruction. This cies in fi ghting crime and avoiding confl ict. The research on project focused on the most vulnerable states – those emerg- crime did not undercut the importance of effective law en- ing from a civil war—and considered how the structure of forcement in fi ghting crime; however, it emphasized the key risk in those states differs from the risk of civil war in states role of social and economic factors. that have not experienced a civil war previously. The proj- Findings from the project have directly informed the for- ect focused specifi cally on the relationship between political mation, organization, and mission statements of operational institutions – democratic institutions in particular—and the units in the World Bank, such as the Confl ict Prevention and risk of new violence. Reconstruction Unit and the Low-Income Countries Under The project produced three papers. The research on parti- Stress Initiative (LICUS). In addition, this research has led tioning used a panel of post-confl ict countries, including both to the development of a new research project on Drug Traf- those that had been partitioned and those that were not par- fi cking and Development, which is under preparation, and titioned, and treated partitioning as a treatment effect in haz- further research on Post-Confl ict Transitions. ard analysis to determine whether partitioning contributed to

178 a lasting peace. The fi ndings showed that partitions are not ment community needs to adjust assistance policies based likely to contribute to a more lasting peace. on the latest research, as well as country-specifi c analysis. The research on post-confl ict democratization used a large The goal of the project was to inform the international com- sample and panel data of countries across time with a mul- munity and developing countries recovering from confl ict on tinomial logit model to identify the likelihood of political effective policies for avoiding confl ict relapse and escaping change (toward democracy/away from democracy/no change) the confl ict trap. in post-confl ict countries. The analysis found little relation- The research followed on the successful research of the ship between confl ict and democratic progress. Economics of Civil War, Crime, and Violence project. As such Because data on crime and violence were diffi cult to it was related to the previous project; however, it extended come by, the research on post-confl ict violence used data col- the research by specifi cally focusing on the aftermath of con- lected from three countries – El Salvador, Guatemala, and fl ict and effective policy to help countries out of the confl ict Lebanon – and compared crime data following civil war in trap. This project benefi ted from new data sources and meth- the three countries. The research argued that post-confl ict odologies, and a widely expanded literature due in no small criminal violence in Guatemala and El Salvador was attrib- part to the success of the previous research project. uted to economic policies that weakened the state’s coercive The project used cross-country panel data to identify com- and distributive capacities, which in turn diminished the op- mon features and trends in post-confl ict development. In ad- portunity costs of crime. Lebanon’s economic policies and dition, many of the project studies employed hazard models contingencies differed sharply from the other two cases un- and other innovative time/risk econometric approaches for der investigation, which may explain its low crime rates. This predicting the likelihood of confl ict relapse. research also demonstrated that criminal violence constitutes The project fi ndings showed that the risk of civil war is a serious threat to development. In El Salvador and Guate- sensitive to the opportunity cost of peace, the means of po- mala, the costs of criminal violence have already exceeded tential rebels to strike at the resources of their government, those of their respective civil wars. and the coordination of groups with grievances. The fi ndings All three papers were recently presented at a confer- also showed that regional factors and past experience con- ence in Khartoum, hosted by the Ministry of Finance and tribute signifi cantly to the likelihood of future civil confl ict. the National Economy of Sudan (MFNE), the University of That is, vulnerability to civil wars is persistent and often Khartoum Economics and Political Science Department, the dependent on neighbor fragility. Furthermore, outside inter- World Bank Institute, and the DEC Research Support Bud- ventions can mitigate the risk of civil war. Ongoing research get on Management of Post-Confl ict Transition: The Chal- confi rms the initial fi ndings that countries benefi t from exter- lenges of Institutional Reform in Sudan. nal intervention and suggests how that intervention should Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment and be structured. Growth Team—Ibrahim Elbadawi and Gary Milante. With The project produced 27 papers, and presentations at two Havard Hegre, International Peace Research Institute of workshops and a dissemination conference. Details on the Oslo (PRIO); Nicholas Sambanis, Yale University; Nazih conferences can be found at the permanent URL for the Richani, Kean University. project: http://go.worldbank.org/84GRAQ0KY0. Sixteen of Project Code: P093994. the papers have been published in the World Bank’s Policy Completion date: June 2007. Research Working Paper series under the special project fl ag “Post-Confl ict Transitions.” They are WPS 4185, 4186, 4187, Publications 4190, 4191, 4192, 4193, 4194, 4196, 4202, 4207, 4208, 4210, Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Havard Hegre, and Gary Milante. “Post- 4221, 4242, and 4243. Additional papers will be added to Transition Democratization and Democratic Stability.” this series. Other current versions of the papers are available Richani, Nazih. “Systems of Violence in Post-Confl ict Societies.” on the interactive agenda from the most recent conference, Sambanis, Nicholas. “Partition and Civil War Recurrence.” available at the project Web site: http://econ.worldbank.org/ programs/confl ict. Several of the papers will be published in Post-Conﬂ ict Transitions special issues/symposia of the Journal of Peace Research and The World Bank Economic Review, with expected publication An overwhelming 40 percent of post-confl ict states slide back in 2008. into confl ict within ten years. This research project suggests Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment that to help countries escape this confl ict trap, the develop- Climate Team—Ibrahim Elbadawi (Ielbadawi@worldbank.

179 org), Philip Keefer, and Norman Loayza. With Paul Collier Diversity: Ethnic Heterogeneity and State Militarization, and Anke Hoeffl er, Center for the Study of African Econo- 1988-2002.” Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper PC 14; mies; Havard Hegre, Nils Peter Gleditsch, Scott Gates, In- Policy Research Working Paper 4221. World Bank, Washing- dra de Soysa, and Gudrun Ostby, International Peace Re- ton, D.C. search Institute of Oslo; Gary Milante, World Bank; Marta Ostby, Gudrun. 2007. “Horizontal Inequalities, Political Envi- Reynal-Querol, Univertitat Pompeu Fabra (Spain); Nicholas ronment, and Civil Conflict: Evidence from 55 Developing Sambanis, Yale University; and Ana Maria Cristina Bodea, Countries, 1986-2003.” Post-Conflict Transitions Working World Bank. Paper PC 7; Policy Research Working Paper 4193. World Project Code: P094690. Bank, Washington, D.C. Completion date: September 2007. Oyefusi, Aderoju. 2007. “Oil and the Propensity to Armed Strug- gle in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria.” Post-Conflict Publications Transitions Working Paper PC 8; Policy Research Working Bundervoet, Tom, Philip Verwimp, and Richard Akresh. 2007. Paper 4194. World Bank, Washington, D.C. “Short-term and Long-term Effects of United Nations Raleigh, Clionadh, and Havard Hegre. 2007. “Population Size, Peace Operations.” Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggre- PC 12; Policy Research Working Paper 4208. World Bank, gated Analysis.” Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper Washington, D.C. PC 16; Policy Research Working Paper 4246. World Bank, Davies, Victor A.B. 2007. “Capital Flight and War.” Post-Conflict Washington, D.C. Transitions Working Paper PC 13; Policy Research Working Reynal-Querol, Marta, Norman V. Loayza, and Siyan Chen. Paper 4210. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2007. “The Aftermath of Civil War.” Post-Conflict Transi- Gates, Scott, Helga Malmin Binningsbo, and Tove Grete Lie. tions Working Paper PC 4; Policy, Research Working Paper 2007. “Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars.” 4190. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper PC 6; Policy Re- Sambanis, Nicholas. 2007. “Short-term and Long-term Effects search Working Paper 4192. World Bank, Washington, D.C. of United Nations Peace Operations.” Post-Conflict Transi- ———. 2007. “Post-conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace.” tions Working Paper PC 11; Policy Research Working Paper Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper PC 5; Policy Re- 4207. World Bank, Washington, D.C. search Working Paper 4191. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, Linda Kaltani, and Ibrahim A. El- Hegre, Havard, Lene Siljeholm Christiansen, and Nils Petter badawi. 2007. “Post-conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Ad- Gleditsch. 2007. “Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention justment, and Catch-up Growth.” Post-Conflict Transitions and Democracy.” Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper Working Paper PC 3; Policy Research Working Paper 4187. PC 15; Policy Research Working Paper 4242. World Bank, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Jennings, Colin. 2007. “Political Leadership, Conflict, and the Local Conﬂ icts and Development Projects Prospects for Constitutional Peace.” Post-Conflict Transi- tions Working Paper PC 9; Policy Research Working Paper This project studied how different (often competing) rules 4196. World Bank, Washington, D.C. systems—from local customary and religious rules to state Keefer, Philip. 2007. “Insurgency and Credible Commitment law and project requirements—are negotiated in poor com- in Autocracies and Democracies.” Post-Conflict Transitions munities. The study looked specifi cally at whether and how Working Paper PC 1; Policy Research Working Paper 4185. the poor seek to resolve everyday disputes. The project is World Bank, Washington, D.C. operating in four countries: Indonesia, Cambodia, Sierra Le- Killicoat, Phillip. 2007. “Weaponomics: The Global Market for one, and Cambodia Assault Rifles.” Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper PC Most research on this issue has centered on understand- 10; Policy Research Working Paper 4202. World Bank, Wash- ing and bringing about institutional change at the macro or ington, D.C. aggregate level. By contrast, this project sought to under- Milante, Gary. 2007. “A Kleptocrat’s Survival Guide: Autocratic stand institutions and institutional change from the bottom Longevity in the Face of Civil Conflict.” Post-Conflict Tran- up, by investigating how different types of local institutions sitions Working Paper PC 2; Policy Research Working Paper and actors jointly negotiate problem-solving activities in 4186. World Bank, Washington, D.C. poor communities. Neumayer, Eric, and Indra de Soysa. 2007. “Disarming Fears of The project explicitly adopted a mixed methods ap-

180 proach, using quantitative material, where available, to help Bebbington, Anthony, Scott Guggenheim, Elizabeth Olson, and with sample selection and to assess aggregate changes (for Michael Woolcock, eds. 2006. The Search for Empowerment: example, in perceptions or in confl ict incidence). It conduct- Social Capital as Idea and Practice at the World Bank. Bloom- ed in-depth, qualitative research, which entailed extensively field, CT: Kumarian Press. training and working with local researchers. Dudwick, Nora, Kathleen Keuhnast, Veronica Nyhan Jones, Four key fi ndings emerged from the study. First, devel- and Michael Woolcock. 2006. “Analyzing Social Capital in opment projects of all kinds generate and facilitate much Context: A Guide to Using Qualitative Methods and Data.” confl ict, which can become violent. Second, the Kecamatan World Bank Institute Working Paper 37260. World Bank, Development Program has generated fewer violent local con- Washington, D.C. fl icts than comparable development projects, largely because Gibson, Christopher, and Michael Woolcock. Forthcoming. of the effi cacy of its facilitators and complaint mechanisms. “Empowerment, Deliberative Development and Lo- Third, in selected instances (most notably where local in- cal Level Politics in Indonesia: Participatory Projects as a stitutions are weak), the Kecamatan Development Program Source of Countervailing Power.” Studies in Comparative appears to have generated positive spillovers on those non- International Development. project confl icts where the key issue is violation of procedur- Sage, Caroline, and Michael Woolcock, eds. 2006. Law, Equity, al rules (for example, elections of local leaders). And fourth, and Development. Special volume of the World Bank Law confl icts of all kinds are most likely to escalate where there Review. Amsterdam: Martinus Nijhoff, and Washington, is a highly pluralistic legal environment and no clear mecha- D.C.: World Bank. nism for mediation. ———. Forthcoming. “Breaking Legal Inequality Traps: New The policy implications are that development projects of Approaches to Building Justice Systems for the Poor in De- all kinds—not just those using competitive bidding mecha- veloping Countries.” In Anis Dani and Arjan de Han, eds., nisms to allocate resources—need to be far more attentive Inclusive States: Social Policy and Structural Inequalities. New than they characteristically are to the potentially violent con- York: Palgrave Macmillan. fl icts they are likely to generate. Project fi ndings have been presented at seminars at the Crises, Polarization, and Reform following: Harvard, Yale, the Center for Global Develop- ment, the World Bank (in Washington and Jakarta), George This research project investigated the role of development Mason University, John Hopkins School of Advanced Inter- and democracy in determining the likelihood of genocide national Studies (Washington, D.C.), Massachusetts Institute and other gross human rights violations. The objective of the of Technology, Oxford University, Princeton University, Uni- analysis was to establish what have been historically the main versitas Indonesia, the Southeast Asia Confl ict Studies Net- risk factors for the occurrence of genocide and other gross hu- work (Malaysia), and the MOST-LIPI/UNESCO conference man rights violations. on Confl ict in the Asia-Pacifi c Region (Jakarta). This was one of the few analyses to apply rigorous econo- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— metric analysis to investigate the occurrence of mass kill- Michael Woolcock ([email protected]); and Caro- ings. Moreover, by assembling a new publicly available data- line Sage (LEGJR), Scott Guggenheim (EASES), Mathew base, the project provided a useful tool for other researchers Stephens (EASSO), and Daniel Adler (LEGJR). With Ryann and policy-makers to investigate and understand these Manning and Tanja Chopra. phenomena. Project Code: P053756. The project assembled a new data set from historical Completion date: August 2007. sources spanning 1820 to 1998, containing information on the occurrence and magnitude of episodes of mass killing. Using Publications cross-country regression analysis, the project studied the re- Barron, Patrick, Rachael Diprose, and Michael Woolcock. 2007. lationship between mass killings and levels of development “Local Conflict and Development Projects in Indonesia: and democracy across countries and over time. Part of the Problem or Part of a Solution?” Policy Research The project fi ndings showed that mass killings are more Working Paper 3713. World Bank, Washington, D.C. likely at intermediate levels of income and less likely at very ———. Forthcoming. Contesting Development: Participatory high levels of democracy. However, the project did not fi nd Projects and Local Conflict Trajectories in Indonesia. Yale evidence of a linear relationship between levels of democ- University Press. racy and the probability of mass killings in the full sample.

181 In the twentieth century, discrete improvements in democ- with other adults). Post-traumatic stress disorder was wide- racy were systematically associated with episodes involving spread immediately following the tsunami but subsided fewer victims. quickly. Public services of neighboring communities unaf- This research fed directly into the ongoing policy dialogue fected by the tsunami were signifi cantly strained by the shift in the World Bank and outside on civil war and violence. By of local resources to affected areas. identifying countries with less than perfect democracy scores Project fi ndings have been presented at the Population as countries at the highest risk of gross human rights viola- Association of America Annual Meeting (2006, 2007); World tions, the research underscored that democracy – an essen- Bank Public Service Conference (2006); World Bank Health, tial precondition – should be supplemented by human rights Nutrition, and Population Seminar (2006); and American protection and other guarantees of individual rights to bring Economic Association Annual Meeting (2007). about benefi cial outcomes for all. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Project fi ndings were presented at the Annual Political Jed Friedman ([email protected]). With SurveyME- Science Association meetings, Chicago. TER, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconom- Project Code: P098855. ics and Growth Team— Bill Easterly (William.easterly@nyu. Completion date: December 2010. edu), Roberta Gatti, and Sergio Kurlat. Project Code: P049866. Publications Completion date: June 2007. Friedman, Jed. Forthcoming. “Assessing Health and Education Services in the Aftermath of a Disaster.” World Bank, Wash- Publication ington, D.C. Easterly, William, Roberta Gatti, and Sergio Kurlat. 2006. “De- ______. “Mental Health in Sumatra after the Tsunami.” Forth- velopment, Democracy, and Mass Killings.” Journal of Eco- coming. American Journal of Public Health. nomic Growth 11(2): 129-56. Security and Development STAR: Study of Tsunami Aftermath and Reconstruction In 2004, the World Bank decided to invest resources to ex- This research project is assessing the socio-economic, amine the state of knowledge regarding the interaction of physical, and psychological well-being of more than 30,000 security and development, and specifi cally terrorism and adult and child survivors of the December 2004 Suma- development on the one hand, and drug traffi cking and de- tran tsunami using survey data representative of the pre- velopment on the other. The World Bank sponsored papers tsunami population. from leading scholars in each of these areas to contribute to a The project is examining the impact of the tsunami on the volume on each of the two topics. The volume on terrorism socio-economic behavior and physical and mental health of and development is forthcoming; that on security and devel- the Indonesian population living along the coast of Aceh and opment is nearly complete. North Sumatra. It is also recording the effects of the recon- Contributors to the volume on terrorism and development struction experience at the household level and identifying the examine the economic and fi scal costs of terrorism and the relative effectiveness of differing reconstruction policies. response to terrorism. They conclude that the economic costs No previous study has taken pre-disaster representative of terrorism in rich countries are low relative to the econom- population data and re-contacted surviving households to cre- ic costs of combating terrorism; both are likely high in poor ate a panel. In this regard, STAR is a truly innovative study. countries. They also report evidence on how development The analytical approaches are varied, depending on the affects terrorism. This work supports the hypothesis that po- particular research question at hand. All involve the analy- litical development—political openness and the quality of sis of observational panel data. Data sources are principally government—is inversely associated with the emergence of those collected by the project (at the household, facility, and terrorist organizations, but not that poverty per se is directly community level) supplemented with satellite images of the responsible for terrorism. study area. Contributors to the volume on drug traffi cking and devel- The project fi ndings are numerous. For example, tsuna- opment shed new light on the costs to poor countries of the mi-caused mortality of children was much higher for children war on drugs. They conclude that the effi cacy of the war on living separately from their mother (although in households drugs, in terms of stemming cultivation and traffi cking of nar-

182 cotics, is scant, but that the costs imposed on target countries are high, both directly (in terms of farmer incomes) and indirectly (in terms of institutional degradation). It is expected that the policy impact of this work will be two-fold. First, it will shift counter-terrorism assistance toward development, and particularly political development. Second, it will shift public policy in rich, drug-consuming countries to other approaches to the war on drugs that do not impose on poor countries costs that are vastly disproportion- ate to the benefi ts (if any) that they offer to rich countries. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and In- vestment Team—Philip Keefer ([email protected]) and Norman Loayza ([email protected]). With Todd Sandler, University of Dallas; Walter Enders, University of Alabama; Gregory Treverton, Rand Corporation; Gregory Hess, Claremont; S. Brock Blomberg, Claremont; Alan Krue- ger, Princeton; David Laitin, Stanford; Jacob Shapiro, Stan- ford; Nicholas Sambanis, Yale; Fernanda Llusa, Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Jose Tavares, Universidade Nova de Lisboa; William Byrd, World Bank; Francisco Thoumi, University of Bogota; Peter Reuter, University of Maryland; Rodrigo Soares, University of Maryland; Romulo Chumacero, Uni- versidad de Chile; Daniel Mejia, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia; and Julia Buxton, Georgetown University. Project Code: P094727. Completion date: September 2008.

Publication Keefer, Philip, and Norman Loayza, eds. Forthcoming. Terror- ism, Economic Development and Political Openness. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

183 List of Publications

A. Books Barth, James, Gerard Caprio, and Ross Levine, eds. 2006. Re- thinking Bank Regulation: Till Angels Govern. Cambridge, U.K.: Ahmed, Sadiq. 2006. Explaining South Asia’s Development Success: Cambridge University Press. The Role of Good Policies. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Basu, Priya, ed. 2005. India’s Financial Sector: Recent Re- Aizenman, Joshua, and Brian Pinto, eds. 2005. Managing Eco- forms, Future Challenges. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; nomic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide. Cambridge and Macmillan. University Press. ______. 2006. Improving Access to Finance for India’s Rural Poor. Alam, Asad, Mamta Murthi, Ruslan Yemtsov, Edmundo Murru- Washington, D.C.: World Bank. garra, Nora Dudwick, Ellen Hamilton, and Erwin Tiongson, Bebbington, Anthony, Michael Woolcock, Scott Guggenheim, eds. 2005. Growth, Poverty, and Inequality: Eastern Europe and and Elizabeth Olson, eds. 2006. The Search for Empowerment: the Former Soviet Union. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Social Capital as Idea and Practice at the World Bank. West Alsop, Ruth, and Bryan Kurey. 2005. Local Organizations in De- Hartford, CT.: Kumarian Press. centralized Development: Their Functions and Performance in In- Besley, Tim, and Louise Cord, eds. 2006. Delivering on the Promise dia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. of Pro-Poor Growth: Insights and Lessons from Country Experi- Amelina, Maria, Dan Chiribuca, and Stephen Knack. 2004. Mapped ences. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: In or Mapped Out? The Romanian Poor in Inter-Household and Palgrave Macmillan. Community Networks. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Besley, Tim, and N. Roberto Zagha, eds. 2005. Development Chal- Anderson, James, David Bernstein, and Cheryl Gray. 2005. Judi- lenges in the 1990s: Leading Policymakers Speak from Experience. cial Systems in Transition Economies: Assessing the Past, Looking Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and New York, N.Y.: Oxford to the Future. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. University Press. Anderson, James H., and Cheryl W. Gray. 2006. Anticorruption in Bhargava, Vinay K., ed. 2006. Global Issues for Global Citizens: An Transition 3: Who is Succeeding... And Why? Washington, D.C.: Introduction to Key Development Challenges. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Anderson, Kym, ed. Forthcoming. Distortions to Agricultural In- Bird, Richard M., and Francois Vaillancourt, eds. 2006. Perspec- centives: Global Perspective. Palgrave University Press; and tives on Fiscal Federalism. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. Bourguignon, François J., Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Nora Anderson, Kym, ed. 2005. The WTO’s Core Rules and Disciplines, Lustig, eds. 2005. The Microeconomics of Income Distribution a Two-Volume Set for the Series of Radings on Critical Perspec- Dynamics in East Asia and Latin America. Washington, D.C.: tives on the Global Trading System. Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward World Bank; and New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press. Elgar. Bourguignon, François, Pierre Jacquet, and Boris Pleskovic, eds. Anderson, Kym, and Tim Josling, eds. 2005. The WTO and Agri- 2007. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics culture, Volumes I and II. Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar. 2004, Europe: Economic Integration and Social Responsibility. Anderson, Kym, and Will Masters, eds. Forthcoming. Distor- Washington, D.C.: World Bank. tions to Agricultural Incentives: Africa. Washington, D.C.: The Bourguignon, François, and Boris Pleskovic, eds. 2007. Annual World Bank. World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2007, Region- Anderson, Kym, and Will Martin, eds. Forthcoming. Distortions al: Beyond Transition. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. to Agricultural Incentives: Asia. Washington, D.C.: The World Bouta, Tsjeard, Georg Frerks, and Ian Bannon. 2004. Gender, Bank. Conflict, and Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Aw, Djibril, and Geert Diemer. 2005. Making a Large Irriga- Broadman, Harry G. 2006. Africa’s Silk Road: China and India’s tion Scheme Work: A Case Study from Mali. Washington, D.C.: New Economic Frontier. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Broadman, Harry G., ed. 2006. From Disintegration to Reintegra- Baghdadli, Ilhem, Hela Cheikhrouhou, and Gael Raballand. tion: Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union in Interna- 2007. Strategies for Cotton in West and Central Africa: En- tional Trade. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. hancing Competitiveness in the “Cotton-4”. Washington, D.C.: Bruce, John W., Renee Giovarelli, Leonard Rolfes, Jr., Da- World Bank. vid Bledsoe, and Robert Mitchell. 2006. Land Law Reform:

184 Achieving Development Policy Objectives. Washington, D.C.: kets, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization and World Bank. Macroeconomic Modeling. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Buckley, Robert M., and Jerry Kalarickal, eds. 2006. Thirty Years de Ferranti, David, Guillermo E. Perry, Daniel Lederman, Alber- of World Bank Shelter Lending: What Have We Learned? Wash- to Valdes, and William Foster. 2005. Beyond the City: The Rural ington, D.C.: World Bank. Contribution to Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Cabañero-Verzosa, Cecilia. 2005. Counting on Communication: The de Wit, Hans, Isabel Cristina Jaramillo, Jane Knight, and Jocely- Uganda Nutrition and Early Childhood Development Project. ne Gacel-Avila, eds. 2005. Higher Education in Latin America: Washington, D.C.: World Bank. The International Dimension. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Campos, J. Edgardo, and Sanjay Pradhan, eds. 2007. The Many De Wulf, Luc, and Jose B. Sokol, eds. 2004. Customs Moderniza- Faces of Corruption: Tracking Vulnerabilities at the Sector Level. tion Initiatives: Case Studies. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Deaton, Angus, and Valerie Kozel, eds. 2005. The Great Indian Campos, J. Edgardo, and Jose Luis Syquia. 2005. Managing Poverty Debate. New Delhi: Macmillan India Ltd. the Politics of Reform: Overhauling the Legal Infrastructure Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Carlos Eduardo Velez, and Ricardo of Public Procurement in the Philippines. Washington, D.C.: Paes de Barros, eds. 2004. Inequality and Economic Develop- World Bank. ment in Brazil. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Cheikhrouhou, Hela, Raul Hernandez-Coss, Radwa El-Swaify, Finger, J. Michael, and Julio J. Nogues, eds. 2005. Safeguards and and Rodrigo Jarque. 2006. The U.S.-Guatemala Remittance Antidumping in Latin American Trade Liberalization: Fighting Corridor. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Fire with Fire. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Basing- Chong, Alberto, and Florencio Lopez de Silanes, eds. 2005. Priva- stoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. tization in Latin America: Myths and Reality. Washington, D.C.: Fiszbein, Ariel. 2005. Citizens, Politicians, and Providers: The Latin World Bank; and Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. American Experience with Service Delivery Reform. Washington, Christy, Lawrence C., Charles E. Di Leva, Jonathan M. Lindsay, D.C.: World Bank. and Patrice Talla Takoukam. 2007. Forest Law and Sustain- Foko, Borel, and Mathieu Brossard. 2007. Couts et Financement de able Development: Addressing Contemporary Challenges through l’Enseignement Superieur en Afrique Francophone. Washington, Legal Reform. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. D.C.: World Bank. Coady, David, Margaret Grosh, and John Hoddinott. 2004. Tar- Gacitua-Mario, Estanislao, and Michael Woolcock, eds. 2005. So- geting of Transfers in Developing Countries: Review of Lessons cial Exclusion and Mobility in Brazil. Washington, D.C.: World and Experience. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bank; and Rio de Janeiro: IPEA. Collier, Paul, and Nicholas Sambanis, eds. 2005. Understanding Gallardo, Joselito, Michael Goldberg, and Bikki Randhawa. Civil War (Volume 1: Africa): Evidence and Analysis. Washing- 2006. Strategic Alliances to Scale Up Financial Services in Rural ton, D.C.: World Bank. Areas. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Correa, Paulo, Carlos Pereira, Bernardo Mueller, and Marcus Ghosh, Swati R. 2006. East Asian Finance: The Road to Robust Melo. 2006. Regulatory Governance in Infrastructure Industries: Markets. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Assessment and Measurement of Brazilian Regulators. Washing- Gill, Indermit S., and Homi Kharas, eds. 2007. An East Asian ton, D.C.: World Bank. Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth. Washington, D.C.: Cotlear, Daniel, ed. 2006. A New Social Contract for Peru: An Agen- World Bank. da for Improving Education, Health Care, and the Social Safety Gill, Indermit S., Truman G. Packard, and Juan Yermo. 2005. Net. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Keeping the Promise of Social Security in Latin America. Wash- Coudouel, Aline, Marcus Cox, Markus Goldstein, Nigel Thorn- ington, D.C.: World Bank; and Stanford, CA: Stanford Uni- ton, and Tara Bedi. 2006. Beyond the Numbers: Understand- versity Press. ing the Institutions for Monitoring Poverty Reduction Strategies. Gill, Indermit S., and Todd Pugatch, eds. 2005. At the Frontlines Washington, D.C.: World Bank. of Development: Reflections from the World Bank. Washington, Coudouel, Aline, and Stefano Paternostro, eds. 2005. Analyzing D.C.: World Bank. the Distributional Impact of Reforms, Volume One: A Practitio- Gioan, Pierre Antoine. 2007. Enseignement Supérieur en Afrique ner’s Guide to Trade, Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy, Util- Francophone: Quels leviers pour des politiques financièrement ity Provision, Agricultural Markets, Land Policy, and Education. soutenables? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Giugale, Marcelo M., Connie Luff, and Vicente Fretes-Cibils, ______. 2006. Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms, Vol- eds. 2006. Bolivia: Public Policy Options for the Well-being of All. ume Two: A Practitioner’s Guide to Pensions, Health, Labor Mar- Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

185 Godinho, Joana, Jaap Veen, James Cercone, Jose Pacheco, and Severance Pay: An International Perspective. Washington, D.C.: Masoud Dara. 2005. Stopping Tuberculosis in Central Asia: Pri- World Bank. orities for Action. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Honohan, Patrick, and Luc Laeven, eds. 2005. Systemic Finan- Golitzen, Katherin George, ed. 2005. The Niger River Basin: cial Crises: Containment and Resolution. New York: Cambridge A Vision for Sustainable Management. Washington, D.C.: University Press. World Bank. Hsiao, William, and R. Paul Shaw, eds. 2007. Social Health Insur- Guislain, Pierre, Mavis A. Ampah, Laurent Besancon, Cecile ance for Developing Nations. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Niang, and Alexandre Serot. 2005. Connecting Sub-Saharan Jacobs, Scott, and Jacqueline Coolidge. 2006. Reducing Admin- Africa: A World Bank Group Strategy for Information and Com- istrative Barriers to Investment: Lessons Learned. Washington, munication Technology Sector Development. Washington, D.C.: D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Jamison, Dean T., Joel G. Breman, Anthony R. Measham, George Gurenko, Eugene N., Rodney R. Lester, Olivier Mahul, and Alleyne, Mariam Claeson, David B. Evans, Prabhat Jha, Anne Serap Oguz Gonulal. 2006. Earthquake Insurance in Turkey: Mills, and Philip Musgrove, eds. 2006. Disease Control Priori- History of the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool. Washington, ties in Developing Countries (2nd Edition). Washington, D.C.: D.C.: World Bank. World Bank; and New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press. Heaver, Richard. 2005. Strengthening Country Commitment to Hu- Jha, Abhas Kumar, ed. 2005. Institutions, Performance, and the Fi- man Development: Lessons from Nutrition. Washington, D.C.: nancing of Infrastructure Services in the Caribbean. Washington, World Bank. D.C.: World Bank. Hernandez-Coss, Raul. 2005. The U.S.-Mexico Remittance Corri- Jha, Prabhat, Dean T. Jamison, Joel G. Breman, Anthony R. dor: Lessons on Shifting from Informal to Formal Transfer Sys- Measham, George Alleyne, Mariam Claeson, David B. Ev- tems. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ans, Anne Mills, and Philip Musgrove, eds. 2006. Priorities in Hertel, Thomas W., and L. Alan Winters, eds. 2005. Pov- Health. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. erty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda. Kemper, Karin, Ariel Dinar, and William Blomquist, eds. 2005. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Institutional and Policy Analysis of River Basin Management De- Palgrave Macmillan. centralization. Washington, D.C: World Bank. ______. 2005. Putting Development Back into the Doha Agenda: Pov- Kikeri, Sunita, Thomas Kenyon, and Vincent Palmade. 2006. Re- erty Impacts of a WTO Agreement. Washington, D.C.: World forming the Investment Climate: Lessons for Practitioners. Wash- Bank. ington, D.C.: World Bank. Hoekman, Bernard M., and Simon J. Evenett, eds. 2005. Eco- Kochendörfer-Lucius, Gudrun, and Boris Pleskovic. 2006. Eq- nomic Development and Multilateral Trade Cooperation. uity and Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Koeberle, Stefan, Harold Bedoya, Peter Silarszky, and Gero Ver- Palgrave Macmillan. heyen, eds. 2005. Conditionality Revisited: Concepts, Experi- Hoekman, Bernard M., and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, eds. 2006. ences, and Lessons. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Global Integration and Technology Transfer. Washington, D.C.: Labaste, Patrick, ed. 2005. The European Horticulture Market: Op- World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. portunities for Sub-Saharan African Exporters. Washington, Hoekman, Bernard M., and Sübidey Togan, eds. 2005. Turkey: D.C.: World Bank. Economic Reform and Accession to the European Union. Wash- Laeven, Luc, and Stijn Claessens, eds. 2006. A Reader in In- ington, D.C.: World Bank; and London, U.K.: Centre for ternational Corporate Finance, Volume 1. Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Research. World Bank. Holland, Jeremy. 2007. Tools for Institutional, Political, and Social Lecocq, Franck. 2005. State and Trends of the Carbon Market Analysis of Policy Reform: A Sourcebook for Development Practi- 2004. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. tioners. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Lederman, Daniel, and William F. Maloney, eds. 2006. Natural Holzmann, Robert, and Richard Hinz. 2005. Old-Age Income Sup- Resources, Neither Curse nor Destiny. Washington, D.C.: World port in the 21st Century: An International Perspective on Pension Bank; and Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Systems and Reform. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Lederman, Daniel, William F. Maloney, and Luis Serven. 2004. Holzmann, Robert, and Edward Palmer, eds. 2005. Pension Re- Lessons from NAFTA: For Latin America and the Caribbean. form: Issues and Prospects for Non-Financial Defined Contribu- Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Stanford, CA: Stanford tion (NDC) Schemes. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. University Press. Holzmann, Robert, and Milan Vodopivec, eds. 2007. Improving Ledgerwood, Joanna, and Victoria White. 2006. Transforming Mi-

186 crofinance Institutions: Providing Full Financial Services to the Nannyonjo, Harriet. 2007. Education Inputs in Uganda: An Anal- Poor. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ysis of Factors Influencing Learning Achievement in Grade Six. Levy, Brian. 2007. Governance Reform: Bridging, Monitoring, and Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Action. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Narayan, Deepa, ed. 2005. Measuring Empowerment: Cross-Disci- Lewis, Maureen, and Marlaine Lockheed, eds. 2006. Inexcus- plinary Perspectives. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. able Absence: Why 60 Million Girls Are Still Not in School and Narayan, Deepa, and Elena Glinskaya, eds. 2006. Ending What to Do about It. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Poverty in South Asia: Ideas That Work. Washington, D.C.: Development. World Bank. Loayza, Norman, Pablo Fajnzylber, and Cesar Calderon. 2005. Eco- Ndulu, Benno, L. Chakraborti, L. Lijane, V. Ramachandran, nomic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stylized Facts, and J. Wolgin. 2007. Challenges of African Growth: Opportuni- Explanations, and Forecasts. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ties, Constraints, and Strategic Directions. Washington, D.C.: Lopez, Alan D., Colin D. Mathers, Majid Ezzati, Dean T. Jami- World Bank. son, and Christopher J.L. Murray, eds. 2006. Global Burden of Noel, Michel, Zeynep Kantur, Yevgeny Krasnov, and Sue Rut- Disease and Risk Factors. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and ledge. 2006. Development of Capital Markets and Institutional New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press. Investors in Russia: Recent Achievements and Policy Challenges Lora, Eduardo, ed. 2006. The State of State Reforms in Latin Amer- Ahead. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ica. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Stanford, CA: Stan- Patrinos, Harry, and Gillete Hall, eds. 2006. Indigenous Peoples, ford University Press. Poverty, and Human Development in Latin America. London: Malek, Danielle. 2006. The World Bank Global HIV/AIDS Pro- Palgrave-Macmillan. gram: Australia’s Successful Response to AIDS and the Role of Perry, Guillermo E., Omar Arias, Pablo Fajnzylber, William F. Law Reform. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Maloney, Andrew Mason, and Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi. Manor, James. 2006. Aid That Works: Successful Development in 2007. Informality: Exit and Exclusion. Washington, D.C.: Fragile States. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Marshall, Katherine, and Lucy Keough, eds. 2005. Finding Global Pomerleano, Michael, and William Shaw, eds. 2005. Corporate Balance: Common Ground between the Worlds of Development and Restructuring: Lessons from Experience. Washington, D.C.: Faith. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, Andrey Timofeev, and Jameson Boex. Preker, Alexander S., Xingzhu Liu, and Edit V. Velenyi, eds. 2006. Reforming Regional-Local Finance in Russia. Washington, 2007. Public Ends, Private Means: Strategic Purchasing of Health D.C.: World Bank. Services. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Matsukawa, Tomoko, and Odo Habeck. 2007. Review of Risk Revenga, Ana, Mead Over, Wiwat Peerapatanapokin, Sombat Mitigation Instruments for Infrastructure: Financing and Recent Thanprasertsuk, Emiko Masaki, Viroj Tangcharoensathien, Trends and Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and Julian Gold. 2006. The Economics of Effective AIDS Treat- McCalla, Alex F., and John Nash, eds. 2006. Reforming Global Ag- ment: Evaluating Policy Options for Thailand. Washington, ricultural Trade for Developing Countries: Key Issues for a Pro- D.C.: World Bank. Development Outcome of the Doha Round Negotiations (Vol 1.). Rossotto, Carlo Maria, Bjorn Wellenius, Anat Lewin, and Carlos Washington, D.C.: World Bank. R. Gomez. 2004. Competition in International Voice Communi- Milanovic, Branko L., ed. 2005. Worlds Apart: Measuring In- cations. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ternational and Global Inequality. Princeton: Princeton Ruitenbeek, Jack, Indumathie Hewawasam, and Magnus Ngoile, University Press. eds. 2005. BLUEPRINT 2050: Sustaining the Marine Environ- Moran, Theodore H., and Gerald T. West, eds. 2005. Internation- ment in Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar. Washington, D.C.: al Political Risk Management, Volume 3: Looking to the Future. World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Sage, Caroline Mary, and Michael Woolcock, eds. 2006. The Moreno-Dodson, Blanca, and Quentin Wodon, eds. 2006. Pub- World Bank Legal Review, Volume 2: Law, Equity, and Develop- lic Finance and Poverty: Concepts and Case Studies from Latin ment. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and The Hague, Neth- America and Africa. Washington, D.C: World Bank. erlands: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers. Mulkeen, Aidan, David Chapman, Joan DeJaeghere, and Eliza- Sargsyan, Gevorg, Ani Balabanyan, and Denzel Hankinson. 2006. beth Leu. 2007. Recruiting, Retaining, and Retraining Sec- From Crisis to Stability in the Armenian Power Sector: Lessons ondary School Teachers and Principals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Learned from Armenia’s Energy Reform Experience. Washington, Washington, D.C.: World Bank. D.C.: World Bank.

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197 nomic Policy Responses on the Argentine Mortgage Mar- ing Data for Texas Elementary Schools.” Quarterly Review of ket.” Journal of Housing Economics 14(3): 242–70. Economics and Finance 46(4): 552–64. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Nihal Bayraktar, Emmanuel Pinto Mor- Akala, Francisca A., and Sameh El-Saharty. 2006. “Public-Health eira, and Karim El Aynaoui. 2006. “Achieving the Millen- Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa.” Lancet nium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macro- 367(9515): 961–4. economic Monitoring Framework.” World Economy 29(11): Alatas, Vivi. 2004. “Reducing Poverty in Asia: Emerging Issues 1519–47. in Growth, Targeting and Measurement. – A review.” Bulletin Aggarwal, Reena, Sandeep Dahiya, Klapper, Leora. 2007. “ADR of Indonesian Economic Studies 40(3): 410–12. Holdings of US-Based Emerging Market Funds.” Journal of Alberini, Anna, Maureen Cropper, Alan Krupnick, and Nathalie Banking and Finance 31(6): 1649–67. B. Simon. 2004. “Does the Value of a Statistical Life Vary Agénor, Pierre-Richard, Mustapha K. Nabli, Tarik Yousef, With Age and Health Status? Evidence from the US and and Henning Tarp Jensen. 2007. “Labor Market Reforms, Canada.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management Growth, and Unemployment in Labor-Exporting Countries 48(1): 769–92. in the Middle East and North Africa.” Journal of Policy Mod- ______. 2006. “Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reduc- eling 29(2): 277–309. tions: Does Latency Matter?” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Agénor, Pierre-Richard, and Lodovico Pizzati. 2005. “Disinfla- 32(3): 231–45. tion and the Supply Side.” Journal of Macroeconomics 27(4): Albuquerque, Rui, Norman V. Loayza, and Luis Servén. 2005. 596–620. “World Market Integration through the Lens of Foreign Aggarwal, Reena, Sandeep Dahiya, and Leora Klapper. 2007. Direct Investors.” Journal of International Economics 66(2): “American Depositary Receipts (ADR) Holdings of U.S. 267–95. Based Emerging Market Funds.” Journal of Banking and Fi- Alderman, Harold. 2005. “Linkages between Poverty Reduction nance 31(6): 1649–67. Strategies and Child Nutrition: An Asian Perspective.” Eco- Aggarwal, Reena, Leora Klapper, and Peter Wysocki. 2005. nomic and Political Weekly 40(46): 4837–42. “Portfolio Preferences of Foreign Institutional Investors.” ______. 2007. “Improving Nutrition through Community Growth Journal of Banking and Finance 29(12): 2919–46. Promotion: Longitudinal Study of the Nutrition and Early Ahmad, Junaid, Bishwanath Goldar, and Smita Misra. 2005. Child Development Program in Uganda.” World Development “Value of Arsenic-Free Drinking Water to Rural Households 35(8): 1376–89. in Bangladesh.” Journal of Environmental Management 74(2): Alderman, Harold, Jere R. Behrman, and John Hoddinott. 2007. 173–85. “Doha, Development and Discrimination.” Pacific Economic ______. 2006. “Rural Communities’ Preferences for Arsenic Mit- Review 12(3): 267–92. igation Options in Bangladesh.” Journal of Water and Health ______. 2007. “Economic and Nutritional Analyses Offer Sub- 4(4): 463–77. stantial Synergies for Understanding Human Nutrition.” Ahman, E.L., and I.H. Shah. 2006. “Contraceptive Use, Fertility, Journal of Nutrition 137(3): 537–44. and Unsafe Abortion in Developing Countries.” European Alderman, Harold, Luc Christiaensen, and Takashi Yamano. 2005. Journal of Contraception and Reproductive Health Care 11(2): “Child Growth, Shocks, and Food Aid in Rural Ethiopia.” 126–31. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87(2): 273–88. Ainsworth, Martha, Kathleen Beegle, and Godlike Koda. 2005. Alderman, Harold, and Trina Haque. 2006. “Countercyclical “The Impact of Adult Mortality and Parental Deaths on Pri- Safety Nets for the Poor and Vulnerable.” Food Policy 31(4): mary Schooling in North-Western Tanzania.” Journal of De- 372–83. velopment Studies 41(3): 412–39. Alderman, Harold, John Hoddinott, and William Kinsey. 2006. Ainsworth, Martha, and Deon Filmer. 2006. “Inequalities in “Long Term Consequences of Early Childhood Malnutri- Children’s Schooling: AIDS, Orphanhood, Poverty, and Gen- tion.” Oxford Economic Papers 58(3): 450–74. der.” World Development 34(6): 1099–128. Alderman, Harold, Hans Hoogeveen, and Mariacristina Rossi. Aizenman, Joshua, Kenneth M. Kletzer, and Brian Pinto. 2005. 2006. “Reducing Child Malnutrition in Tanzania: Combined “Sargent-Wallace Meets Krugman-Flood-Garber, or: Why Effects of Income Growth and Program Interventions.” Eco- Sovereign Debt Swaps Do Not Avert Macroeconomic Cri- nomics and Human Biology 4(1): 1–23. ses.” Economic Journal 115(503): 343–67. Alderman, Harold, Joseph Konde-Lule, Isaac Sebuliba, Donald Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan. 2006. “Is Intrajurisdictional Resource Bundy, and Andrew Hall. 2006. “Effect on Weight Gain of Allocation Equitable? An Analysis of Campus-Level Spend- Routinely Giving Albendazole to Preschool Children during

198 Child Health Days in Uganda: Cluster Randomized Con- Welfare and Poverty Alleviation.” Journal of Economic Inte- trolled Trial.” British Medical Journals 333(7559): 122–4. gration 20(4): 771–88. ______. 2006. “Increased Weight Gain in Preschool Children Anderson, Kym, Will Martin, and Ernesto Valenzuela. 2006. Due to Mass Albendazole Treatment Given during ‘Child “The Relative Importance of Global Agricultural Subsidies Health Days’ in Uganda: A Cluster Randomized Controlled and Market Access.” World Trade Review 5(3): 357–76. Trial.” British Medical Journal 333: 122–26. Anderson, Kym, Will Martin, and Dominique van der Mensbrug- Alexandre, Michel Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, and Otaviano Canuto. ghe. 2006. “Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricul- 2006. “Determinantes das Decisoes Locacionais da Ativi- tural Markets and Farm Incomes.” Review of Agricultural Eco- dade Financiera. “ (Determinants of Financial Sector Loca- nomics 28(2): 168–94. tion Decisions). 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Wage Gap and Poverty in Colombia.” Labour 20(4): 721–39. ______. 2005. “Setting the Trade Policy Agenda: What Role for ______. 2005. “Do Changes in the Minimum Wage Affect Young- Economists?” Journal of World Trade 39(5): 341–81. er and Older Workers Differently? Evidence for Paraguay Anderson, Kym, and Lee Ann Jackson. 2005. “GM Food Crop Using Semi-Parametric Methods.” Estudios de Economía Technology and Trade Restraints: Economic Implications 32(1): 25–38. for Australia and New Zealand.” Australian Journal of Agri- Anson, Jose, Olivier Cadot, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. “Tariff cultural and Resource Economics 49(3): 263–81. Evasion and Customs Corruption: Does Pre-shipment In- Anderson, Kym, and William Martin. 2007. “Agricultural and spection Help?” B.E. Journals in Economic Analysis and Poli- Nama Reform under Doha: Implications for Asia-Pacific cy: Contributions to Economic Analysis and Policy 5(1): 1–24. Economies.” Pacific Economic Review 12(3): 319–33. 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Forthcoming. “Local Inequality and Proj- Anderson, Kym, Jikun Huang, and Elena Ianchovichina. 2004. ect Choice: Theory and Evidence from Ecuador.” Journal of “Will China’s WTO Accession Worsen Farm Household In- Public Economics. comes?” China Economic Review 15(4): 443–56. Arbelaez, Maria Patricia, Marta Beatriz Gaviria, Alvaro Franco, Anderson, Kym, Lee Ann Jackson, and Chantal Pohl Nielsen. Roman Restrepo, Doracelly Hincapie, and Erik Blas. 2004. 2005. “Genetically Modified Rice Adoption: Implications for “Tuberculosis Control and Managed Competition in Colom-

199 bia.” International Journal of Health Planning and Management Baroncelli, Eugenia, Carsten Fink, and Beata Smarzynska Javor- 19(Suppl. 1): S25–S43. cik. 2005. “The Global Distribution of Trademarks: Some Arima, Eugenio, Paulo Barreto, and Marky Brito. 2006. “Cattle Stylized Facts.” World Economy 28(6): 765–82. Ranching in the Amazon: Trends and Implications for En- Bartelsman, Eric, Stefano Scarpetta, and Fabiano Schivardi. 2005. vironmental Conservation.” Belém: Instituto do Homem e “Comparative Analysis of Firm Demographics and Survival: Meio Ambiente da Amazônia. Evidence from Micro-Level Sources in OECD Countries.” Arima, Eugenio Y., Cynthia S. Simmons, Robert T. Walker, and Industrial and Corporate Change 14(3): 365–91. Mark Cochrane. 2007. “Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spa- Basdevant, Olivier. 2005. “Learning Process and Rational Expec- tially Explicit Analysis.” Journal of Regional Science 47(3): tations: An Analysis Using a Small Macro-Economic Model 541–67. for New Zealand.” Economic Modelling 22(6): 1074–89. Arunanondchai, Jutamas, and Carsten Fink. 2006. “Trade in Basu, Kaushik. 2006. “Gender and Say: A Model of Household Health Services in the ASEAN Region.” Health Promotion Behavior with Endogenously Determined Balance of Pow- International 21 (Suppl 1): 59–66. er.” Economic Journal 116(511): 558–80. Atkinson, Giles, and Kirk Hamilton. 2007. “Progress along the Batra, Sumant. 2006. “India: An Overview of Corporate Gover- Path: Evolving Issues in the Measurement of Genuine Sav- nance of Non-listed Companies.” In OECD, Corporate Gov- ing.” Environmental and Resource Economics 37(1): 43–61. ernance of Non-listed Companies in Emerging Markets. 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Action and Community-Driven Development in Rural and ______. 2006. “Restructuring Uganda’s Coffee Industry: Why Urban Indonesia.” Urban Studies 43(9): 1451–68. Going Back to Basics Matters.” Development Policy Review Bebbington, Anthony, Leni Dharmawan, Erwin Fahmi, and 24(4): 413–36. Scott Guggenheim. 2006. “Local Capacity, Village Gover- Bai, Chong-En, and Lixin Colin Xu. 2005. “The System of In- nance, and the Political Economy of Rural Development in centives for Managers with Multitasks: Theory and Evi- Indonesia.” World Development 34(11): 1958–76. dence from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises.” Journal of Beck, Thorsten, and Augusto de la Torre. 2007. “The Basic Ana- Comparative Economics 33(3): 517–39. lytics of Access to Financial Services.” Financial Markets, In- Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit, and John Horowitz. 2006. “Do Plants stitutions and Instruments 16(2): 79–117. Overcomply with Water Pollution Regulations? 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Oetzel, and Rupa hill. 2005. “State Bank Transformation in Brazil: Choices Ranganathan. 2006. “Private Provision of Infrastructure in and Consequences.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8–9): Emerging Markets: Do Institutions Matter?” Development 2223–57. Policy Review 24(2): 175–202. Beck, Thorsten, Robert Cull, and Jerome Afeikhena. 2005. “Bank Banerji, Arup, and Sanjay Jain. 2007. “Quality Dualism.” Journal Privatization and Performance: Empirical Evidence from of Development Economics 84(1): 234–50. Nigeria.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8–9): 2355–79. Bao, Shuming, Jack Hou, and Anqing Shi. 2005. “Analysis of the Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2007. Spatial Changing Patterns of Migration in China.” China “Finance, Inequality and the Poor.” Journal of Economic Population Science (Zhongguo Renkou Kexue) 5. Growth 12(1): 27–49.

200 _____. 2006. “Bank Concentration, Competition, and Crises: First “Out-of-Pocket and Informal Payments in the Health Sec- Results.” Journal of Banking and Finance 30(5): 1581–603. tor: Evidence from Georgia.” Health Policy 70(1): 109–23. _____. 2006. “Bank Supervision and Corruption in Lending.” Benin, Samuel, Mohamed Ahmedb, John Penderc, and Simeon Journal of Monetary Economics 53(8): 2131–63. Ehui. 2005. “Development of Land Rental Markets and Ag- _____. 2005. “Bank Concentration and Fragility: Impact and ricultural Productivity Growth: The Case of Northern Ethio- Mechanics.” NBER Working Paper 11500. National Bureau pia.” Journal of African Economies 14(1): 21–54. of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. Benin, Samuel, M. Smale, John Pender, B. Gebremedhin, and _____. 2005. “SMEs, Growth, and Poverty: Cross-Country Evi- Simeon Ehui. 2004. “The Economic Determinants of Cereal dence.” Journal of Economic Growth 10(3): 199–229. Crop Diversity on Farms in the Ethiopian Highlands.” Agri- Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimo- cultural Economics 31(2–3): 197–208. vic. 2006. “The Influence of Financial and Legal Institu- Bento, Antonio M., Maureen L. Cropper, Ahmed Mushfiq Mo- tions on Firm Size.” Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11): barak, and Katja Vinha. 2005. “The Effects of Urban Spatial 2995–3015. Structure on Travel Demand in The United States.” Review Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Maria Soledad Marti- of Economics and Statistics 87(3): 466–78. nez Peria. 2007. “Reaching Out: Access to and Use of Bank- Berg, Andy, and Zia Qureshi. 2005. “The MDGs: Building Mo- ing Services across Countries.” Journal of Financial Econom- mentum.” Finance and Development 42(3): 21–23. ics 85(1): 234–66. Berger, Allen, George R.G. Clarke, Robert Cull, Leora Klapper, Beck, Thorsten, Mattias Lundberg, and Giovanni Majnoni. 2006. and Gregory F. 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201 Technologies on Regulatory Regimes: Introductory Com- Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Belarus, 1996–2001.” ments.” Communications and Strategies: 15–30. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 1: Bhargava, Alok, Sadia Chowdhury, and K.K. Singh. 2005. 1–20. “Healthcare Infrastructure, Contraceptive Use and Infant Bokhari, A.S. Farasat, Yunwei Gai, and Pablo Gottret. 2007. Mortality in Uttar Pradesh, India.” Economics and Human Bi- “Government Health Expenditures and Health Outcomes.” ology 3(3): 388–404. Health Economics 16(3): 257–73. Bhargava, Alok, Matthew Jukes, Damaris Ngorosho, Charles Bonaccorsi di Patti, Emilia, and Daniel C. Hardy. 2005. “Finan- Khilma, and Donald Bundy. 2005. “Modeling the Effects cial Sector Liberalization, Bank Privatization, and Efficien- of Health Status and the Educational Infrastructure on the cy: Evidence from Pakistan.” Journal of Banking and Finance Cognitive Development of Tanzanian School Children.” 29(8–9): 2381–406. American Journal of Human Biology 17(3): 280–92. Bonilla-Chacin, Maria E., Edmundo Murrugarra, and Moukim Biggs, Tyler, and Manju Kedia Shah. 2006. “African SMES, Net- Temourov. 2005. “Health Care during Transition and Health works, and Manufacturing Performance.” Journal of Banking Systems Reform: Evidence from the Poorest CIS Countries.” and Finance 30(11): 3043–66. Social Policy and Administration 39(4): 381–408. Bird, Neil, Bernhard Schlamadinger, Benoit Bosquet, Charlotte Bonu, Sekhar, Manju Rani, David H. Peters, Prabhat Jha, and Streck, Ian Noble, and Michael Dutschke. 2005. “Can the Son Nam Nguyen. 2005. “Does Use of Tobacco or Alcohol EU Emission Trading Scheme Support CDM Forestry?” Cli- Contribute to Impoverishment from Hospitalization Costs mate Policy 5(2): 199–208. in India?” Health Policy and Planning 20(1): 41–49. Bishai, David, George Pariyo, Martha Ainsworth, and Kenneth ______. 2004. “Household Tobacco and Alcohol Use, and Child Hill. 2004. “Determinants of Personal Demand for an AIDS Health: An Exploratory Study from India.” Health Policy Vaccine in Uganda: Contingent Valuation Survey.” Bulletin of 70(1): 67–83. the World Health Organization 82(9): 652–60. Borraz, Fernando, and Jose Ernesto Lopez-Cordova. 2007. “Has Black, Bernard S., Inessa Love, and Andrei Rachinsky. 2006. Globalization Deepened Income Inequality in Mexico?” “Corporate Governance Indices and Firms’ Market Values: Global Economy Journal 7(1): 1–55. Time Series Evidence from Russia.” Emerging Markets Re- Boswijk, H. Peter, and Roy van der Weide. 2006. “Wake Me Up view 7(4): 361–79. Before You GO-GARCH.” Discussion Papers 06-079/4. Tin- Blas, Erik. 2004. “The Proof of the Reform Is in the Implemen- bergen Institute. tation.” International Journal of Health Planning and Manage- Botero, Juan, Simeon Djankov, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lo- ment 19(Suppl. 1): S3–S23. pez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer. 2004. “The Regulation Blunch, Niels-Hugo, Amit Dar, Lorenzo Guarcello, Scott Lyon, of Labor.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(4): 1339–82. Amy R. Ritualo, and Furio C. Rosati. 2005. “Child Work in Boubakri, Narjess, Jean-Claude Cosset, Klaus P. Fischer, and Zambia: A Comparative Study of Survey Instruments.” Inter- Omrane Guedhami. 2005. “Privatization and Bank Perfor- national Labour Review 144(2): 211–35. mance in Developing Countries.” Journal of Banking and Fi- Blunch, Niels-Hugo, and Dorte Verner. 2006. “Shared Sectoral nance 29(8–9): 2015–41. Growth versus the Dual Economy Model: Evidence from Boucher, Stephen R., Bradford L. Barham, and Michael R. Cart- Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe.” African Development er. 2005. “The Impact of Market-Friendly Reforms on Cred- Review/Revue Africaine de Developpement 18(3): 283–308. it and Land Markets in Honduras and Nicaragua.” World De- Bobonis, Gustavo J., Edward Miguel, and Charu Puri Sharma. velopment 33(1): 107–28. 2006. “Anemia and School Participation.” Journal of Human Bourguignon, François. 2005. “Comment on ‘Measuring Poverty Resources 41(4): 692–721. in a Growing World (or Measuring Growth in a Poor World)’ Boehmer, Ekkehart, Robert C. Nash, and Jeffrey M. Netter. by Angus Deaton.” Review of Economics and Statistics 87(1): 2005. “Bank Privatization in Developing and Developed 20–22. Countries: Cross-Sectional Evidence on the Impact of Eco- ______. 2005. “Distribution et Redistribution Mondiales: Une nomic and Political Factors.” Journal of Banking and Finance Vue Preliminaire. (Global Distribution and Redistribution: 29(8–9): 1981–2013. A Preliminary View.)” Revue d’Economie du Developpement 4: Bogetic, Zeljko, and Johannes W. Fedderke. 2006. “Forecasting 5–15. Investment Needs in South Africa’s Electricity and Telecom ______. 2005. “Measuring Poverty in a Growing World (or Mea- Sectors.” South African Journal of Economics 74(3): 557–74. suring Growth in a Poor World).” Review of Economics and Bogetic, Zeljko, and Zorica Mladenovic. 2006. “Inflation and the Statistics 87(1): 20–22.

202 Bourguignon, François J., and Marielle de Jong. 2006. “The Im- Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. 2006. portance of Being Value.” Journal of Portfolio Management “Government Finance in the Wake of Currency Crises.” (spring). Journal of Monetary Economics 53(3): 401–40. Bourguignon, Francois, Martin Fournier, and Marc Gurgand. Buys, Piet, Ken Chomitz, Susmita Dasgupta, Uwe Deichman, 2007. “Selection Bias Corrections Based on the Multinomial Bjorn Larsen, Craig Meisner, Jostein Nygard, Kiran Pandey, Logit Model: Monte Carlo Comparisons.” Journal of Econom- Nat Pinnoi, and David Wheeler. 2006. “The Economics of ic Surveys 21(1): 174–205. Decentralized Poverty-Environment Programs: An Applica- Bourguignon, Francois, Sylvie Lambert, and Akiko Suwa-Eisen- tion for Lao PDR.” Journal of Policy Modeling 28(7): 811–24. mann. 2004. “Trade Exposure and Income Volatility in Cash- Byerlee, Derek, T.S. Jayne, and Robert J. 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Democracy: Empirical Evidence for Uruguay.” Economic In- ______. 2006. “Beyond ‘Best Practice’ and ‘Basics First’ in quiry 45(3): 592–601. Adopting Performance Budgeting Reform.” Public Adminis- ______. 2006. “Courts under Constraints: Judges, Generals and tration and Development 26(2): 147–61. Presidents in Argentina.” Latin American Politics and Society Bourguignon, François J., and Thierry Verdier. 2005. “The Po- 48(2): 194–97. litical Economy of Education and Development in an Open ______. 2006. “Do Democracies Breed Rent-Seeking Behav- Economy.” Review of International Economics 13(3): 529–48. ior?” Journal of Policy Reform 9(4): 247–60. Bown, Chad P. 2005. “Trade Remedies and World Trade Organi- Calderón, César, Alberto Chong, and Gianmarco Leon. 2007. “In- zation Dispute Settlement: Why Are So Few Challenged?” stitutional Enforcement, Labor Market Rigidities and Eco- Journal of Legal Studies 34(2): 515–55. nomic Performance.” Emerging Markets Review 8(1): 38–49. 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203 amination of Principles and Practice in Uganda.” Develop- tion: Teacher and Health Worker Absence in Developing ment Policy Review 24(6): 647–67. Countries.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20(1): 91–116. Carayannis, Elias G., and Denisa Popescu. 2005. “Profiling Chauvin, Nicolas Depetris, and Aart Kraay. 2007. “Who Gets a Methodology for Economic Growth and Convergence: Debt Relief?” Journal of the European Economic Association Learning from the EU E-Procurement Experience for Cen- 5(2–3): 333–42. tral and Eastern European Countries.” Technovation 25(1): Chomitz, Kenneth M., Keith Alger, Timothy S. Thomas, Heloisa 1–14. Orlando, and Paulo Vila Nova. 2005. “Opportunity Costs of Carayannis, Elias G., Denisa Popescu, Caroline Sipp, and Mc- Conservation in a Biodiversity Hotspot: The Case of South- Donald Stewart. 2006. “Technological Learning for Entre- ern Bahia.” Environment and Development Economics 10(3): preneurial Development (TL4ED) in the Knowledge Econ- 293–312. omy (KE): Case Studies and Lessons Learned.” Technovation Chomitz, Kenneth M., Alexandre Carvalho, and Daniel Da Mata. 26(4): 419–43. 2005. “Estimation of Multiequation Cross-Section Models Carletto, Gero, and Alberto Zezza. 2006. “Being Poor, Feeling in the Presence of Spatial Autocorrelation.” IPEA Discus- Poorer: Combining Objective and Subjective Measures of sion Paper 1111. Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Welfare in Albania.” Journal of Development Studies 42(5): IPEA. 739–60. Chomitz, Kenneth M., and Franck Lecocq. 2004. “Temporary Carletto, Gero, Benjamin Davis, and Marco Stampini. 2005. “Fa- Sequestration Credits: An Instrument for Carbon Bears.” miliar Faces, Familiar Places: The Role of Family Networks Climate Policy 4(1): 65–74. and Previous Experience from Albanian Migrants.” ESA Chomitz, Kenneth M., Timothy S. Thomas, and Antônio Salazar Working Paper 05–03. Food and Agriculture Organization, Brandão. 2005. “The Economic and Environmental Impact Agricultural and Development Economics Division, Rome. of Trade in Forest Reserve Obligations: A Simulation Analy- Carletto, Gero, Benjamin Davis, Marco Stampini, and Alberto sis of Options for Dealing with Habitat Heterogeneity.” Re- Zezza. 2006. “A Country on the Move: International Migra- vista Economia e Sociologia Rural 43(4): 657–84. tion in Post-Communist Albania.” International Migration Re- Christiaensen, Luc J., and Kalanidhi Subbarao. 2005. “Towards view 40(4): 767–85. an Understanding of Household Vulnerability in Rural Ke- Cernea, Michael M., and Kai Schmidt-Soltau. 2006. “Poverty nya.” Journal of African Economies 14(4): 520–58. Risks and National Parks: Policy Issues in Conservation and Cibulskis, Richard E. 2005. “Information Is Not Only for Man- Resettlement.” World Development 34(10): 1808–30. agers.” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 83(8): 637. 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Ques- Claessens, Stijn, and Leora F. Klapper. 2005. “Bankruptcy around tioning the Conventional Wisdom with Data from Indian the World: Explanations of Its Relative Use.” American Law Metropolises.” Environment and Planning A 37(2): 331–53. and Economics Review 7(1): 253–83. Chaudhuri, Shubham, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, and Panle Jia. 2006. Claessens, Stijn, Joseph Po Hung Fan, and Larry Hsien Ping “Estimating the Effects of Global Patent Protection in Phar- Lang. 2006. “The Benefits and Costs of Group Affiliation: maceuticals: A Case Study of Quinolones in India.” American Evidence from East Asia.” Emerging Markets Review 7(1): Economic Review 96(5): 1477–514. 1–26. Chaudhury, Nazmul, and Shantayanan Devarajan. 2006. “Hu- Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio L. 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204 ization: Do Economic Fundamentals Spur Both Similarly?” nesses in Latin America: Does Bank Origin Matter?” Journal Journal of Empirical Finance 13(3): 316–50. of Money Credit and Banking 37(1): 83–18. Claessens, Stijn, Jan Krahnen, and William W. Lang. 2005. “The Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. 2007. “Unintended Conse- Basel II Reform and Retail Credit Markets.” Journal of Fi- quences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?” Oxford Bulletin of nancial Services Research 28(1–3): 5–13. Economics and Statistics 69(1): 1–27. Claessens, Stijn, and Jerome Kreuser. 2007. “Strategic Foreign ______. 2006. “Military Spending in Post-Conflict Societies.” Reserves Risk Management: Analytical Framework.” Annals Economics of Governance 7(1): 89–107. of Operations Research 152(1): 79–113. Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Catherine Pattillo. 2004. “Af- Claessens, Stijn, and Luc Laeven. 2005. “Financial Sector Com- rica’s Exodus: Capital Flight and the Brain Drain as Portfolio petition, Financial Dependence, and Growth.” Journal of Decisions.” Journal of African Economies 13(Suppl. 2): 15–54. European Economic Association 3(1): 179–207. Considine, Timothy J., and Donald F. Larson. 2006. “The Envi- Claessens, Stijn, and Konstantinos Tzioumis. 2006. “Ownership ronment as a Factor of Production.” Journal of Environmental and Financing Structures of Listed and Large Non-Listed Economics and Management 52(3): 645–62. Corporations.” Corporate Governance - An International Review Cordella, Tito, and Eduardo Levy Yeyati. 2006. “A (New) Coun- 14(4): 266–76. try Insurance Facility.” International Finance 9(1): 1–36. Clark, John D., and Nuno S. Themudo. 2006. “Linking the Web Cowan, F.M., J.W. Hargrove, L.F. Langhaug, S. Jaffar, L. 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Wilson. 2005. “Is Sexual Contact of Economics and Statistics 89(2): 359–73. with Sex Workers Important in Driving the HIV Epidemic Clarke, George R.G., and Robert Cull. 2005. “Bank Privatiza- among Men in Rural Zimbabwe?” Journal of Acquired Im- tion in Argentina: A Model of Political Constraints and Dif- mune Deficiency Syndromes 40(3): 371–76. ferential Outcomes.” Journal of Development Economics 78(1): Crivelli, Juan Miguel, Robert Cull, and George R.G. Clarke. 133–55. 2005. “The Direct and Indirect Impact of Bank Privatiza- Clarke, George R.G., and Scott J. Wallsten. 2006. “Has the Inter- tion and Foreign Entry on Access to Credit in Argentina’s net Increased Trade? Developed and Developing Country Provinces.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(1): 5–29. Evidence.” Economic Inquiry 44(3): 465–84. Cropper, Maureen L., Mitiku Haile, Julian Lampietti, Christine Clarke, George R.G., Robert Cull, and Maria Soledad Marti- Poulos, and Dale Whittington. 2004. “The Demand for a nez Peria. 2006. “Foreign Bank Participation and Access to Malaria Vaccine: Evidence from Ethiopia.” Journal of Devel- Credit across Firms in Developing Countries.” Journal of opment Economics 75(1): 303–18. Comparative Economics 34(4): 774–95. Cross, Piers, and Alain Morel. 2005.”Pro-Poor Strategies for Ur- Clarke, George R.G., Robert Cull, and William Megginson. 2005. ban Water Supply and Sanitation Services Delivery in Af- “Introduction to the Special Issue on Bank Privatization.” rica.” Water Science Technology 51(8): 51–7. Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8–9): 1903–04. Cull, Robert, Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Jonathan Morduch. 2007. Clarke, George R.G., Robert Cull, and Mary M. 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205 Cull, Robert, and Lixin Colin Xu. 2005. “Institutions, Owner- Response to Measure Clinical Competence.” Journal of De- ship, and Finance: The Determinants of Profit Reinvest- velopment Economics 78(2): 348–83. ment among Chinese Firms.” Journal of Financial Economics Das, Jishnu, and Thomas Pave Sohnesen. 2007. “Variations in 77(1): 117–46. Doctor Effort: Evidence from Paraguay.” Health Affairs (Mill- Dale-Johnson, D., C.L. Redfearn, and W.J. Brzeski. 2005. “From wood) 26(3): w324–37. Central Planning to Centrality: Krakow’s Land Prices after Das, Jishnu, Quy Toan Do, Jed Friedman, David McKenzie, and Poland’s Big Bang.” Real Estate Economics 33(2): 269–97. Kinnon Scott. 2007. “Mental Health and Poverty in Devel- Damania, Richard, and Erwin H. Bulte. 2007. “The Economics oping Countries: Revisiting the Relationship.” Social Science of Wildlife Farming and Endangered Species Conservation.” and Medecine 65(3): 467–80. Ecological Economics 62(3–4): 461–72. Dasgupta, Aniruddha, and Victoria A. Beard. 2007. “Community Damania, Richard, and Per G. Fredriksson. 2007. “Trade Policy: Driven Development, Collective Action and Elite Capture What’s Welfare Got to Do with It?” Economics Letters 96(1): in Indonesia.” Development and Change 38(2): 229–49. 64–69. Dasgupta, Susmita, Uwe Deichmann, Craig Meisner, and Da- Damania, Richard, Eric Neumayer, Per G. Fredriksson, and Scott vid R. Wheeler. 2005. “Where Is the Poverty-Environment Gates. 2005. “Democracy and Pollution Control.” Journal of Nexus? Evidence from Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam.” Environmental Economics and Management 49(2): 343–65. World Development 33(4): 617–38. Dana, Julie, Christopher L. Gilbert, and Euna Shim. 2006. Dasgupta, Susmita, Kirk E. Hamilton, Kiran D. Pandey, and “Hedging Grain Price Risk in the SADC: Case Studies of David R. Wheeler. 2006. “Environment during Growth: Ac- Malawi and Zambia.” Food Policy 31(4): 357–71. counting for Governance and Vulnerability.” World Develop- Dani, Anis A. 2006. “Mainstreaming Social Development in the ment 34(9): 1597–611. World Bank.” Global Social Policy 6(3): 262–65. Dasgupta, Susmita, Jong Ho Hong, Benoit Laplante, and Nlan- d’Arcangues, Catherine. 2007. “Worldwide Use of Intrauter- du Mamingi. 2006. “Disclosure of Environmental Violations ine Devices for Contraception.” Contraception 75(Suppl. 6): and Stock Market in the Republic of Korea.” Ecological Eco- S2–7. nomics 58(4): 759–77. Das Gupta, Monica. 2006. “Cultural versus Biological Factors Dasgupta, Susmita, Mainul Huq, M. Khaliquzzaman, Kiran D. in Explaining Asia’s ‘Missing Women’: Response to Oster.” Pandey, and David R. Wheeler. 2006. “Indoor Air Quality for Population and Development Review 32(2): 328–32. 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206 Growth Matter for Poverty Reduction in Papua New Guin- The Role of Financial Development and Income Variability ea?” Pacific Economic Bulletin 21(1): 71–83. across Countries.” Economic Development and Cultural Change Davies, Rhys, and Gaelle Pierre. 2005. “The Family Gap in Pay 53(4): 913–32. in Europe: A Cross-Country Study.” Labour Economics 12(4): Deichmann, Uwe, and Somik V. Lall. 2007. “Citizen Feedback 469–86. and Delivery of Urban Services.” World Development 35(4): Dayton, Julia, and Martha Ainsworth. 2004. “The Elderly and 649–62. AIDS: Coping with the Impact of Adult Death in Tanzania.” Deininger, Klaus, and Raffaella Castagnini. 2006. “Incidence Social Science and Medicine 59(10): 2161–72. and Impact of Land Conflict in Uganda.” Journal of Econom- de Beyer, Joy. 2005. “L’Impact Economique de la Consomma- ic Behavior and Organization 60(3): 321–45. tion de Tabac en Afrique.” International Journal of Health Deininger, Klaus, and Songqing Jin. 2005. “The Potential of Promotion and Education 12–17. Land Rental Markets in the Process of Economic Devel- de Beyer, Joy, M. Ong, Z. Mao, T.W. Hu, and Y. Liu. 2005. “Smok- opment: Evidence from China.” Journal of Development Eco- ing, Standard of Living, and Poverty in China.” Tobacco Con- nomics 78(1): 241–70. trol 14(4): 247–50. ______. 2006. “Tenure Security and Land-Related Investment: de Janvry, Alain, Federico Finan, Elisabeth Sadoulet, and Renos Evidence from Ethiopia.” European Economic Review 50(5): Vakis. 2006. “Can Conditional Cash Transfer Programs Serve 1245–77. as Safety Nets in Keeping Children at School and from Deininger, Klaus, and Paul Mpuga. 2005. “Does Greater Ac- Working When Exposed to Shocks?” Journal of Development countabilty Improve the Quality of Public Service Delivery? Economics 79(2): 349–73. Evidence from Uganda.” World Development 33(1): 171–91. de la Torre, Augusto, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2005. “Small ______. 2005. “Economic and Welfare Impact of the Abolition of Fish, Big Pond: What Is the Future for Domestic Capital Health User Fees: Evidence from Uganda.” Journal of Afri- Markets in a Globalized Economy?” Finance and Development can Economies 14(1): 55–91. 42(2): 47–49. Deininger, Klaus, Anja Crommelyneck, and Gloria Kempaka. de la Torre, Augusto, Juan Carlos Gozzi, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2005. “Impact of AIDS on Family Composition, Welfare, and 2007. “Stock Market Development under Globalization: Investment: Evidence from Uganda.” Review of Development Whither the Gains from Reforms?” Journal of Banking and Economics 9(3): 303–24. Finance 31(6): 1731–54. DeJaeghere, Joan G., David W. Chapman, and Aidan Mulkeen. de Mello, Luiz, and Erwin R. Tiongson. 2006. “Income Inequal- 2006. “Increasing the Supply of Secondary Teachers in Sub- ity and Redistributive Government Spending.” Public Fi- Saharan Africa: A Stakeholder Assessment of Policy Options nance Review 34(3): 282–305. in Six Countries.” Journal of Education Policy 21(5): 515–33. De Nicolo, Gianni, Patrick Honohan, and Alain Ize. 2005. “Dol- del Ninno, Carlo, Paul A. Dorosh, and Kalanidhi Subbarao. 2007. larization of Bank Deposits: Causes and Consequences.” “Food Aid, Domestic Policy and Food Security: Contrasting Journal of Banking and Finance 29(7): 1697–727. Experiences from South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.” Food de Walque, Damien. 2007. “Does Education Affect Smoking Policy 32(4): 413–35. Behaviors? Evidence Using the Vietnam Draft as an Instru- del Ninno, Carlo, and Mattias Lundberg. 2005. “Treading Water. ment for College Education.” Journal of Health Economics The Long-Term Impact of the 1998 Flood on Nutrition in 26(5): 877–95. Bangladesh.” Journal of Economics and Human Biology 3(1): ______. 2006. “The Socio-demographic Legacy of the Khmer 67–96. Rouge Period in Cambodia.” Population Studies 60(2): Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, Thorsten Beck, and Ross Levine. 2005. 223–31. “Law and Firms’ Access to Finance.” American Law and Eco- ______. 2005. “Selective Mortality during the Khmer Rouge Pe- nomics Review 7(1): 211–52. riod in Cambodia.” Population and Development Review 31(2): Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, Enrica Detragiache, and Poonam Gupta. 351–68. 2006. “Inside the Crisis: An Empirical Analysis of Banking de Walque, Damien, Jessica S. Nakiyingi-Miiro, June Busingye, Systems in Distress.” Journal of International Money and Fi- and Jimmy A. Whitworth. 2005. “Changing Association be- nance 25(5): 702–18. tween Schooling Levels and HIV-1Infection over 11 Years in Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, Inessa Love, and Vojislav Maksimovic. a Rural Population Cohort in South-West Uganda.” Tropical 2006. “Business Environment and the Incorporation Deci- Medicine and International Health 10(10): 993–1001. sion.” Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11): 2967–93. Dehejia, Rajeev H., and Roberta Gatti. 2005. “Child Labor: Demombynes, Gabriel, and Berk Özler. 2005. “Crime and Local

207 Inequality in South Africa.” Journal of Development Economics Djankov, Simeon, Caralee McLiesh, and Rita Maria Ramalho. 2006. 76(2): 265–92. “Regulation and Growth.” Economics Letters 92(3): 395–401. Denizer, Cevdet, Raj M. Desai, and Nikolay Gueorguiev. 2006. Djankov, Simeon, Caralee McLiesh, and Andrei Shleifer. 2007. “Political Competition and Financial Reform in Transition “Private Credit in 129 Countries.” Journal of Financial Eco- Economies.” Comparative Economic Studies 48(4): 563–82. nomics 84(2): 299–329. Denizer, Cevdet, Mustafa Dinc, and Murat Tarimcilar. 2007. Djankov, Simeon, Jose G. Montalvo, and Marta Reynal-Querol. “Financial Liberalization and Banking Efficiency: Evidence 2006. “Does Foreign Aid Help?” Cato Journal 26(1): 1–28. from Turkey.” Journal of Productivity Analysis 27(3): 177–95. Djankov, Simeon, Yingyi Qian, Gerard Roland, and Ekaterina Desai, Raj M., Lev Freinkman, and Itzhak Goldberg. 2005. “Fis- Zhuravskaya. 2006. “Entrepreneurship in China and Rus- cal Federalism in Rentier Regions: Evidence from Russia.” sia Compared.” Journal of the European Economic Association Journal of Comparative Economics 33(4): 814–34. 4(2–3): 352–65. Deutscher, Eckhard, and Dirk Messner. 2005. “Society Abroad: ______. 2006. “Who Are China’s Entrepreneurs?” American Eco- Europe’s Response to World Politics.” Society 42(6): 59–63. nomic Review 96(2): 348–52. Devlin, Julia, and Peter Yee. 2005. “Trade Logistics in Devel- Djankov, Simeon, Edward Miguel, Yingyi Qian, Gérard Roland, oping Countries: The Case of the Middle East and North and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya. 2005. “Who Are Russia’s En- Africa.” World Economy 28(3): 435–56. trepreneurs?” Journal of the European Economic Association Di Tommaso, Maria L., Martin Raiser, and Melvyn Weeks. 2007. 3(2–3): 587–97. “Home Grown or Imported? Initial Conditions, External An- Dobronogov, Anton, and Mamta Murthi. 2005 “Administrative chors and the Determinants of Institutional Reform in the Fees and Costs of Mandatory Private Pensions in Transition Transition Economies.” Economic Journal 117(520): 858–81. Economies.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 4(1): Diao, Xinshen, and Paul Dorosh. 2007. “Demand Constraints 31–55. on Agricultural Growth in East and Southern Africa: A Gen- Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay. 2006. “Neither a Borrower nor eral Equilibrium Analysis.” Development Policy Review 25(3): a Lender: Does China’s Zero Net Foreign Asset Position 275–92. Make Economic Sense?” Journal of Monetary Economics Diao, Xinshen, Terry Roe, and Rachid Doukkali. 2005. “Econo- 53(5): 943–71. mywide Gains from Decentralized Water Allocation in a Dollar, David, and Victoria Levin. 2006. “The Increasing Selec- Spatially Heterogeneous Agricultural Economy.” Environ- tivity of Foreign Aid, 1984–2003.” World Development 34(12): ment and Development Economics 10(3): 249–69. 2034–46. 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208 Doyle, J., E. Waters, D. Yach, D. McQueen, A. De Francisco, plications for Long-Term Development in the Arab World.” T. Stewart, P. Reddy, A.M. Gulmezoglu, G. Galea, and A. Journal of Development and Economic Policies 8(1): 7–26. Portela. 2005. “Global Priority Setting for Cochrane System- ______. 2005. “Reviving Growth in the Arab World.” Economic atic Reviews of Health Promotion and Public Health Re- Development and Cultural Change 53(2): 293–326. search.” Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 59(3): Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Hadi Salehi Esfahani, and Hanaa Kheir-El- 193–97. Din. 2007. “Economic Policy and Performance in the Middle Dries, Liesbeth, and Johan F. M. Swinnen. 2004. “Foreign Di- East and North Africa: Essays in Honor of Heba Handoussa: rect Investment, Vertical Integration, and Local Suppliers: Introduction.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Evidence from the Polish Dairy Sector.” World Development 46(5): 653–56. 32(9): 1525–44. 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209 and Implications for Decentralization.” Education Economics alisation and Export Variety: A Comparison of Mexico and 15(1): 103–27. China.” World Economy 30(1): 5–21. Essama-Nssah, Boniface. 2005. “A Unified Framework for Pro- Fernandes, Ana Margarida. 2007. “Trade Policy, Trade Volumes poor Growth Analysis.” Economics Letters 89(2): 216–21. and Plant-Level Productivity in Colombian Manufacturing Estache, Antonio. 2006. “PPI Partnerships vs. PPI Divorces in Industries.” Journal of International Economics 71(1): 52–71. LDCs.” Review of Industrial Organization 29(1–2): 3–26. Fernandez Garcia, Maria Jesus, and Pablo Moreno Garcia. 2005. ______. 2005. “New Horizons - Experiences in Latin American “Retos de la politica de desarrollo del Banco Mundial y del PPPs.” Infrastructure Journal (June): 21–26. FMI. (World Bank and IMF Development Policy Challeng- Estache, Antonio, and Daniel Alberto Benitez. 2005. “How Con- es. 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210 ity’ and the Success of Economic Reforms across More Than Gertler, Paul J., Sarah Barber, and Pandu Harimurti. 2007. “Dif- 100 Countries.” Journal of Policy Reform 9(1): 75–105. ferences in Access to Quality Outpatient Care in Indone- Foster, Andrew, and Marc R. Rosenzweig. Forthcoming. “Agri- sia: An Analysis by Clinic Settings, Regions, and Household cultural Development, Industrialization, and Rural Inequal- Wealth.” Health Affairs 26(3): w356–66. ity.” Econometrica. Gertler, Paul J., and Garrick Blalock. Forthcoming. “Welfare Freund, Caroline L. 2005. “Current Account Adjustment in In- Gains from Foreign Direct Investment through Technol- dustrial Countries.” Journal of International Money and Fi- ogy Transfer to Local Suppliers.” Journal of International nance 24(8): 1278–98. Economics. 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211 Giovannucci, Daniele, and Stefano Ponte. 2005. “Standards as tion from a Study of Reading-Related Processes in a Swahili a New Form of Social Contract? Sustainability Initiatives in Sample of Siblings.” Journal of Research in Reading 29(1): the Coffee Industry.” Food Policy 30(3): 284–301. 104–23. Gleason, Kimberly, Anita Pennathur, and James McNulty. 2005. Grigorenko, Elena L., Adam Naples, Joseph Chang, Christina “Returns to Acquirers of Privatizing Financial Services Romano, Damaris Ngorosho, Selemani Kungulilo, Matthew Firms: An International Examination.” Journal of Banking Jukes, and Donald Bundy. 2007. “Back to Africa: Tracing and Finance 29(8–9): 2043–65. Dyslexia Genes in East Africa.” Reading and Writing 20(1–2): Glinskaya, Elena, and Michael Lokshin. 2007. “Wage Differen- 27–49. tials between the Public and Private Sectors in India.” Jour- Grigorian, David A., and Vlad Manole. 2006. “Determinants of nal of International Development 19(3): 333–55. Commercial Bank Performance in Transition: An Applica- Goddard, Maria, Katharina Hauck, Alex Preker, and Peter C. tion of Data Envelopment Analysis.” Comparative Economic Smith. 2006. “Priority Setting in Health - A Political Econ- Studies 48(3): 497–522. omy Perspective.” Health Economics, Policy and Law 1(1): Guasch, José Luis, Jean-Jacques Laffont, and Stephane Straub. 79–90. 2006. “Renegotiation of Concession Contracts: A Theoretical Godtland, Erin M., Elisabeth Sadoulet, Alain De Janvry, Rinku Approach.” Review of Industrial Organization 29(1): 55–73. Murgai, and Oscar Ortiz. 2004. “The Impact of Farmer Field Guasch, José Luis, and Stephane Straub. 2006. “Renegotiation Schools on Knowledge and Productivity: A Study of Potato of Infrastructure Concessions: An Overview.” Annals of Pub- Farmers in the Peruvian Andes.” Economic Development and lic and Cooperative Economics 77(4): 479–93. Cultural Change 53(1): 63–92. Guihéry, Laurent, and Jan Werner. 2005. “Les Finances Pub- Goldin, Ian, and Kenneth A. Reinert. 2005. “Global Capital liques en Allemagne: Quelles reformes? (Local Public Fi- Flows and Development: A Survey.” Journal of International nance in Germany: Which Reforms?)” Revue de L’OFCE 94: Trade and Economic Development 14(4): 453–81. 397–422. Goldstein, A. 2004. “A Continent for the Taking: The Tragedy Gulmezoglu, A. Metin, Ana Langer, Gilda Piaggio, Pisake and Hope of Africa–A Book Review.” International Affairs Lumbiganon, José Villar, and Jeremy Grimshaw. 2007. “Clus- 80(5): 1021–22. ter Randomized Trial of an Active, Multifaceted Education- ______. 2004. “Globalization and Its Enemies–A Book Review.” al Intervention Based on the WHO Reproductive Health International Affairs 80(4): 783–84. Library to Improve Obstetric Practices.” British Journal of ______. 2004. “In Defense of Globalization–A Book Review.” Obstetrics and Gynaecology 114(1): 16–23. International Affairs 80(4): 783–84. Gulmezoglu, A. Metin, Tikki Pang, Richard Horton, and Key Goméz-Lobo, Andrés, and Antonio Estache. 2005. “Limits to Dickersin. 2005.”WHO Facilitates International Collabo- Competition in Urban Bus Services in Developing Coun- ration in Setting Standards for Clinical Trial Registration.” tries.” Transport Reviews 25(2): 139–58. Lancet 365(9474): 1829–31. Gradstein, Mark, and Branko Milanovic. 2004. “Does Liberte Gulyani, Sumila, Debabrata Talukdar, and R. Mukami Kariuki. Equal Egalite? A Survey of the Empirical Links between 2005. “Universal (Non)service? Water Markets, Household Democracy and Inequality with Some Evidence on the Demand and the Poor in Urban Kenya.” Urban Studies 42(8): Transition Economies.” Journal of Economic Surveys 18(4): 1247–74. 515–37. Gupta, Poonam, Deepak Mishra, Ratna Sahay. 2007. “Behavior Gradstein, Mark, and Maurice Schiff. 2006. “The Political Econ- of Output during Currency Crises.” Journal of International omy of Social Exclusion, with Implications for Immigration Economics 72(2): 428–50. Policy.” Journal of Population Economics 19(2): 327–44. Haber, Stephen. 2005. “Mexico’s Experiments with Bank Priva- Gregor, Thomas A., and Daniel R. Gross. 2004. “Guilt by As- tization and Liberalization, 1991–2003.” Journal of Banking sociation: The Culture of Accusation and the American An- and Finance 29(8–9): 2325–53. thropological Association’s Investigation of Darkness in El Habicht, Jarno, Ke Xu, Agnes Couffinhal, and Joseph Kutzin. Dorado.” American Anthropologist 106(4): 687–98. 2006. “Detecting Changes in Financial Protection: Creating Griffin, P. David. 2005.”The World Health Organization Initia- Evidence for Policy in Estonia.” Health Policy and Planning tive on Implantation Research.” Contraception 71(4): 235–8. 21(6): 421–31. Grigorenko, Elena L., Damaris Ngorosho, Matthew Jukes, and Hall, David C., Simeon K. Ehui, and Barry I. Shapiro. 2004. Donald Bundy. 2006. “Reading in Able and Disabled Read- “Economic Analysis of the Impact of Adopting Herd Health ers from around the World: Same or Different? An Illustra-

212 Control Programs on Smallholder Dairy Farms in Central Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?” Economic Model- Thailand.” Agricultural Economics 31(2–3): 335–42. ling 24(4): 611–35. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, Scott Wallsten, and Lixin Colin Xu. Hertel, Thomas W., and Maros Ivanic. 2006. “Making the Doha De- 2006. “Ownership, Investment Climate and Firm Perfor- velopment Agenda More Poverty-Friendly: The Role of South- mance: Evidence from Chinese Firms.” Economics of Transi- South Trade.” Review of Agricultural Economics 28(3): 354–61. tion 14(4): 629–47. Hertel, Thomas W., and Jeffrey Reimer. 2005. “Predicting the Hamilton, Kirk, Giovanni Ruta, and Liaila Tajibaeva. 2006. Poverty Impact of Trade Reform.” Journal of International “Capital Accumulation and Resource Depletion: A Hartwick Trade and Economic Development 14(4): 377–405. Rule Counterfactual.” Environmental and Resource Economics Hertel, Thomas W., and L. Alan Winters. 2005. “Estimating the 34(4): 517–33. Poverty Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agen- Hamilton, Kirk, and Cees Withagen. 2007. “Savings Growth and da.” World Economy 28(8): 1057–71. the Path of Utility.” Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Ca- Hildebrandt, Nicole, and David J. McKenzie. 2005. “The Ef- nadienne D’Economie 40(2): 703–13. fects of Migration on Child Health in Mexico.” Economia: Hammer, Jeffrey S., Michael Kremer, Nazmul Chaudhury, Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Associa- Karthik Muralidharan, and F. Halsey Rogers. 2005. “Teacher tion 6(1): 285–87. Absenteeism in India: A Snapshot.” Journal of the European Hertel, Thomas W., Roman Keeney, Maros Ivanic, and L. Alan Economic Association 3(2–3): 658–67. Winters. 2007. “Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Harrison, Anne E., Inessa Love, and Margaret S. McMillan. 2004. Reforms in Rich and Poor Countries.” Economic Policy 22(4): “Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints.” Journal 289–337. of Development Economics 75(1): 269–301. Hillmann, Michael R., Philippe Dongier, Robert P. Murgallis, Hartarska, Valentina M., and Martin Holtmann. 2006. “An Over- Mary Khosh, Elizabeth K. Allen, and Ray Evernham. 2005. view of Recent Developments in the Microfinance Litera- “When Failure Isn’t an Option.” Harvard Business Review ture.” Agricultural Finance Review 66(2): 147–65. 83(7–8). Hausmann, Ricardo, Lant Pritchett, and Dani Rodrik. 2005. Hoekman, Bernard. 2005. “Expanding WTO Membership and “Growth Accelerations.” Journal of Economic Growth 10(4): Heterogeneous Interests.” World Trade Review 4(3): 401–08. 303–29. ______. 2005. “Making the WTO More Supportive of Develop- Hawkins, Donald E., and Shaun Mann. 2007. “The World Bank’s ment.” Finance and Development 42(1): 14–18. Role in Tourism Development.” Annals of Tourism Research ______. 2005. “Operationalizing the Concept of Policy Space 34(2): 348–63. in the WTO beyond Special and Differential Treatment.” Heller, Patrick, K.N. Harilal, and Shubham Chaudhuri. 2007. Journal of International Economic Law 8(2): 405–24. “Building Local Democracy: Evaluating the Impact of De- Hoekman, Bernard, and Simon J. Evenett. 2005. “Government Pro- centralization in Kerala, India.” World Development 35(4): curment: Market Access, Transparency, and Multilateral Trade 626–48. Rules.” European Journal of Political Economy 21(1): 163–83. Heltberg, Rasmus. 2005. “Factors Determining Household Fuel Hoekman, Bernard, and Richard Newfarmer. 2005. “Preferential Choice in Guatemala.” Environment and Development Eco- Trade Agreements, Investment Disciplines, and Investment nomics 10(3): 337–61. Flows.” Journal of World Trade 39(5): 949–73. Henson, Spencer, and Steven Jaffee. 2006. “Food Safety Stan- Hoekman, Bernard, and Kamal Saggi. 2007. “Tariff Bindings and dards and Trade: Enhancing Competitiveness and Avoiding Bilateral Cooperation on Export Cartels.” Journal of Develop- Exclusion of Developing Countries.” European Journal of ment Economics 83(1): 141–56. Development Research 18(4): 593–621. Hoekman, Bernard M., Keith E. Maskus, and Kamal Saggi. 2005. Hentschel, Jesko. 2005. “Using Rapid City Surveys to Inform “Transfer of Technology to Developing Countries: Unilat- Municipal Social Policy - An Application in Cali, Colombia.” eral and Multilateral Policy Options.” World Development Habitat International 29(4): 667–88. 33(10): 1587–602. Herrera, Santiago, and Gaobo Pang. 2006. “How Efficient Is Pub- Hoddinott, John, and Emmanuel Skoufias. 2004. “The Impact lic Spending in Education?” Ensayos sobre Política Económica of PROGRESA on Food Consumption.” Economic Develop- 51: 137–201. ment and Cultural Change 53(1): 37–61. Hertel, Thomas W., David Hummels, Maros Ivanic, and Roman Hoekman, Bernard, and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik. 2004. “Poli- Keeney. 2007. “How Confident Can We Be of CGE-Based cies Facilitating Firm Adjustment to Globalization.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 20(3): 457–73.

213 Hoff, Karla, Shale Horowitz, and Branko Milanovic. 2005. “Po- ______. 2005. “The Patterns and Determinants of Longevity litical Alternation, Regardless of Ideology, Diminishes In- in Russia’s Regions: Evidence from Panel Data.” Journal of fluence Buying: Lessons from Transitions in Former Com- Comparative Economics 33(4): 788–813. munist States.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jack, William, Arik Levinson, and Sjamsu Rahardja. 2006. “Em- Policy Outlook 1–6. ployee Cost-Sharing and the Welfare Effects of Flexible Hoff, Karla, and Priyanka Pandey. 2006. “Discrimination, Social Spending Accounts.” Journal of Public Economics 90(12): Identity, and Durable Inequalities.” American Economic Re- 2285–301. view 96(2): 206–11. 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214 Jowett, Matthew, Anil Deolalikar, and Peter Martinsson. 2004. Study of the Singapore Economy.” Journal of Development “Health Insurance and Treatment Seeking Behavior: Evi- Economics 77(1): 125–52. dence from a Low-Income Country.” Health Economics 13(9): Kee, Hiau Looi, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Peri Silva. 2007. “Mar- 845–57. ket Access for Sale.” Journal of Development Economics 82(1): Kaiser, Kai. 2004. “Decentralisation in Indonesia: Redesigning 79–94. the State––A Book Review.” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Keefer, Philip. 2004. “What Does Political Economy Tell Us Studies 40(3): 405–07. about Economic Development - and Vice Versa?” Annual Re- Kaiser, Kai, Bert Hofman, and Fitria Fitrani. 2005. “Unity in view of Political Science 7: 247–72. Diversity? The Creation of New Regions in a Decentraliz- Keiko, Inoue, and Gili S. Drori. 2006. “The Global Institution- ing Indonesia.” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 41(1): alization of Health as a Social Concern: Organizational and 57–79. Discursive Trends.” International Sociology 21(2): 199–219. Kaltani, Linda. 2007. “Complementary Reforms and the Link Kenny, Charles. 2005. “Does Development Make You Happy? between Trade Openness and Growth in Albania.” Post- Subjective Well-Being and Economic Growth in Developing Communist Economies 19(2): 225–53. Countries.” Social Indicators Research 73(2): 199–219. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena, and Maria Vagliasindi. 2006. “Capacity ______. 2005. “Why Are We Worried about Income? Nearly Ev- Utilization of the Kazakhstani Firms and the Russian Finan- erything That Matters Is Converging.” World Development cial Crisis: A Panel Data Analysis.” Economic Systems 30(3): 33(1): 1–19. 231–48. ______. 2006. “Were People in the Past Poor and Miserable?” Kaminski, Bartlomiej, and Francis K.T. Ng. 2005. “Production Kyklos 59(2): 275–306. Disintegration and Integration of Central Europe into Glob- Kenny, Charles, and Rym Keremane. 2007. “Toward Universal al Markets.” International Review of Economics and Finance Telephone Access: Market Progress and Progress beyond 14(3): 377–90. the Market.” Telecommunications Policy 31(3–4): 155–63. Kaminsky, Graciela, Richard K. Lyons, and Sergio L. Schmukler. Khaleghian, Peyvand, and Monica Das Gupta. 2005. “Public 2004. “Managers, Investors, and Crises: Mutual Fund Strate- Management and the Essential Public Health Functions.” gies in Emerging Markets.” Journal of International Econom- World Development 33(7): 1083–99. ics 64(1): 113–34. Khandker, Shahidur R. 2007. “Coping with Flood: Role of Insti- Kapstein, Ethan, and Branko Milanovic, eds. 2004. “Income and tutions in Bangladesh.” Agricultural Economics 36(2): 169–80. Influence Social Policy in Emerging Market Economies.” Khemani, Stuti. 2006. “Local Government Accountability for Society 41(5): 59–60. Health Service Delivery in Nigeria.” Jounal of African Econo- Kaufmann, Daniel. 2005. “10 Myths about Governance and Cor- mies 15(2): 285–312. ruption.” Finance and Development 42(3): 41–43. ______. 2007. “Does Delegation of Fiscal Policy to an Indepen- Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay, and Massimo Mastruzzi. 2007. dent Agency Make a Difference? Evidence from Intergov- “Growth and Governance: a Rejoinder.” Journal of Politics ernmental Transfers in India.” Journal of Development Eco- 69(2): 570–72. nomics 82(2): 464–84. ______. 2007. “Growth and Governance: a Reply.” Journal of Kijima, Yoko, and Peter Lanjouw. 2005. “Economic Diversifica- Politics 69(2): 555–62. tion and Poverty in Rural India.” Indian Journal of Labour Kaufmann, Daniel, Gil Mehrez, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2005. Economics 8(2). “Predicting Currency Fluctuations and Crises: Do Resident King, Elizabeth M, Sharon Ghuman, Jere R. Behrman, Judith Firms Have an Informational Advantage?” Journal of Inter- B. Borja, and Socorro Gultiano. 2005. “Family Background, national Money and Finance 24(6): 1012–29. Service Providers, and Early Childhood Development in the Kee, Hiau Looi. 2005. “Productivity or Endowments? Sectoral Philippines: Proxies and Interactions.” Economic Development Evidence for Hong Kong’s Agggregate Growth.” Asian Eco- and Cultural Change 54(1): 129–64. nomic Journal 19(1): 51–81. King, Elizabeth M., H.T. Kim, N.T. Dang, E. Michael, L. Drake, Kee, Hiau Looi, and Bernard Hoekman. 2007. “Imports, Entry C. Needham, R. Haque, D.A.P. Bundy, and J.P. Webster. 2005. and Competition Law as Market Disciplines.” European “Immuno-epidemiology of Ascaris lumbricoides Infection in Economic Review 51(4): 831–58. a High Transmission Community: Antibody Responses and Kee, Hiau Looi, and Hian Teck Hoon. 2005. “Trade, Capital Ac- Their Impact on Current and Future Infection Intensity.” cumulation and Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Parasite Immunology 27(3): 89–96.

215 Kioy, D., and N. Mattock. 2005. “Control of Sleeping Sickness - Panel of Countries.” Journal of Development Economics 80(1): Time to Integrate Approaches.” Lancet 366(9487): 695–6. 198–227. Kirk, Robert, and Matthew Stern. 2005. “The New Southern Kraay, Aart, and Claudio Raddatz. 2007. “Poverty Traps, Aid, and African Customs Union Agreement.” World Economy 28(2): Growth.” Journal of Development Economics 82(2): 315–47. 169–90. Kraay, Aart, Norman V. Loayza, Luis Servén, and Jaume Ventura. Kiuila, Olga, and Grzegorz Peszko. 2006. “Sectoral and Macro- 2005. “Country Portfolios.” Journal of the European Economic economic Impacts of the Large Combustion Plants in Po- Association 3(4): 914–45. land: A General Equilibrium Analysis.” Energy Economics Kroeger, Axel, and Michael B. Nathan. 2006. “Dengue: Setting 28(3): 288–307. the Global Research Agenda.” Lancet 368(9554): 2193–5. Klapper, Leora. 2006. “The Role of Factoring for Financing Kroeger, A., M.B. Nathan, J. Hombach, R. 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216 Opportunities for Intervention.” Lancet Infectious Diseases mance and Future Prospects.” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic 6(12): 780–93. Studies 43(1): 35–57. Lamptey, Peter, and David Wilson. 2005. “Scaling Up AIDS ______. 2006. “Local Government Taxation: An Analysis of Ad- Treatment: What Is the Potential Impact and What Are the ministrative Cost Inefficiency.” Bulletin of Indonesian Eco- Risks?” Public Libraries of Science 2(2): 1–3. nomic Studies 42(2): 213–33. Lanjouw, Peter F., and Yoko Kijima. 2005. “Economic Diversifi- ______. 2005. “Indonesian Local Government Spending, Taxing cation and Poverty in Rural India.” Indian Journal of Labour and Saving: An Explanation of Pre- and Post-decentralization Economics 8: 349–74. Fiscal Outcomes.” Asian Economic Journal 19(3): 291–317. Lanjouw, Peter F., Jean Lanjouw, and Chris Elbers. 2005. “Im- Lewis, Blane D., and Jasmin Chakeri. 2004. “Central Develop- puted Welfare Estimates in Regression Analysis.” Journal of ment Spending in the Regions Post-Decentralisation.” Bul- Economic Geography 5(1): 101–18. letin of Indonesian Economic Studies 40(3): 379–94. Larson, Donald F. 2007. “On Inverse Carrying Charges and Spa- Lewis, Lynne Y., and Gayatri Acharya. 2006. “Environmental tial Arbitrage.” Journal of Futures Markets 27(4): 305–36. Quality and Housing Markets: Does Lot Size Matter?” Ma- Lassibille, Gérard, and Jee-Peng Tan. 2005. “The Returns to rine Resource Economics 21(3): 317–30. Education in Rwanda.” Journal of African Economies 14(1): Lewis, Maureen. 2007. “Informal Payments and the Financing 92–116. of Health Care in Developing and Transition Countries.” Laxminarayan, Ramanan, Mead Over, and David L. Smith. Health Affairs (Millwood) 26(6): 1789–90. 2006. “Will a Global Subsidy of New Antimalarials Delay ______. 2006. “Why the Obstacles to Getting Life Saving Ser- the Emergence of Resistance and Save Lives?” Health Af- vices in Some Countries?” Foreign Policy (July). fairs 25(2): 325–36. ______. 2005. “A War Chest for Fighting HIV/AIDS.” Finance le Blanc, David, and Francois-Charles Wolff. 2006. “Leaving and Development 42(4). Home in Europe: The Role of Parents’ and Children’s In- Lewis, Maureen, Gunnar Eskeland, and Ximena Traa-Valerezo. comes.” Review of Economics of the Household 4(1): 53–73. 2004. “Primary Health Care in Practice: Is It Effective?” Le, Tuan Minh, and Oleksiy Ivaschenko. 2005. “Tax Policy Health Policy 70(3): 303–25. Reform in Macroeconomically Distressed Zimbabwe.” Tax Ley, Eduardo. 2006. “Statistical Inference as a Bargaining Notes International (November) 40(7): 653–62. Game.” Economics Letters 93(1): 142–49. Lederman, Daniel. 2005. “Income, Wealth, and Socialization in Li, Jin, L.Q. Wang, and K.W. Fischer. 2004. “The Organization Argentina.” Cuadernos de Economía 42(125): 3–30. of Chinese Shame Concepts?” Cognition and Emotion 18(6): ______. “The Political Economy of Protection: Theory and the 767–97. Chilean Experience.” Enterprise and Society 7(1): 187–89. Li, Wei, and Lixin Colin Xu. 2004. “The Impact of Privatization Lederman, Daniel, Norman V. Loayza, and Rodrigo Soares. and Competition in the Telecommunications Sector around 2005. “Corruption and Accountability: Political Institutions the World.” Journal of Law and Economics 47(2): 395–430. Matter.” Economics and Politics 17(1): 1–35. Li, Wei, Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang, and Lixin Colin Xu. 2005. Leipziger, Danny, and Roberto Zagha. 2006. “Getting out of the “Regulatory Reforms in the Telecommunications Sector in Rut: Applying Growth Diagnostics at the World Bank.” Fi- Developing Countries: The Role of Democracy and Private nance and Development 43(1): 16–17. Interests.” World Development 33(8): 1307–24. Levine, Ross, and Sergio Luis Schmukler. 2007. “Migration, Lindelöw, Magnus. 2006. “Sometimes More Equal Than Others: Spillovers, and Trade Diversion: the Impact of Internation- How Health Inequalities Depend on the Choice of Welfare alization on Domestic Stock Market Activity.” Journal of Indicator.” Health Economics 15(3): 263–79. Banking and Finance 31(6): 1595–612. ______. 2005. “The Utilisation of Curative Healthcare in Mo- ______. 2006. “Internationalization and Stock Market Liquid- zambique: Does Income Matter?” Journal of African Econo- ity.” Review of Finance 10(1): 153–87. mies 14(3): 435–82. ______. 2005. “Internationalization and the Evolution of Corpo- Lindelöw, Magnus, Peter Serneels, and Teigist Lemma. 2006. rate Valuation.” NBER Working Paper 11023. National Bu- “The Performance of Health Workers in Ethiopia: Results reau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. from Qualitative Research.” Social Science and Medecine 62(9): Levis, Julien. 2006. “Adoption of Corporate Social Responsibil- 2225–35. ity Codes by Multinational Companies.” Journal of Asian Lippoldt, Douglas C., and Przemyslaw Kowalski. 2005. “Trade Economics 17(1): 50–55. Preference Erosion: Potential Economic Impacts.” OECD Lewis, Blane D. 2007. “On-Lending in Indonesia: Past Perfor-

217 Trade Policy Working Papers 17. Organization for Economic Panel VAR.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 46(2): Co-operation and Development, Paris. 190–210. Lloyd, Cynthia B., Cem Mete, and Zeba A. Sathar. 2005. “The Ef- Love, Inessa, Lorenzo A. Preve, and Virginia Sarria-Allende. fect of Gender Differences in Primary School Access, Type, 2007. “Trade Credit and Bank Credit: Evidence from Re- and Quality on the Decision to Enroll in Rural Pakistan.” cent Financial Crises.” Journal of Financial Economics 83(2): Economic Development and Cultural Change 53(3): 685–710. 453–69. Loayza, Norman V. 2004. “The Open Society Assesses Its Ene- Lskavyan, Vahe, and Mariana Spatareanu. 2006. “Ownership mies: Shocks, Disasters and Terrorist Attacks– A Comment.” Concentration, Market Monitoring and Performance: Evi- Journal of Monetary Economics 51(5): 1071–75. dence from the UK, the Czech Republic and Poland.” Jour- Loayza, Norman V., and Romain Rancière. 2006. “Financial nal of Applied Economics 9(1): 91–104. Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth.” Journal of Luke, Nancy. 2006. “Exchange and Condom Use in Informal Money, Credit, and Banking 38(4): 1051–76. Sexual Relationships in Urban Kenya.” Economic Develop- Loayza, Norman V., Daniel Lederman, and Rodrigo R. Soares. ment and Cultural Change 54(2): 319–48. 2005. “Accountability and Corruption: Political Institutions Luo, Zhehui, Ren Mu, and Xiaobo Zhang. 2006. “Famine and Matter.” Economic and Politics 17(3): 1–35. Overweight in China.” Review of Agricultural Economics 28(3): Loevinsohn, Benjamin, and April Harding. 2005. “Buying Re- 296–304. sults? Contracting for Health Service Delivery in Develop- Mahul, Olivier. 2004. “Introduction to the Special Issue on Risk ing Countries.” Lancet 366(9486): 676–81. Behaviour of Market Participants.” European Review of Agri- Loevinsohn, Benjamin, Rathavuth Hong, and Varun Gauri. 2006. cultural Economics 31(3): 233–34. “Will More Inputs Improve the Delivery of Health Services? Mahul, Olivier, and Brian D. Wright. 2007. “Optimal Cover- Analysis of District Vaccination Coverage in Pakistan.” In- age for Incompletely Reliable Insurance.” Economics Letters ternational Journal of Health Planning and Management 21(1): 95(3): 456–61. 45–54. Majnoni, Giovanni, and Andrew Powell. 2005. “Reforming Bank Lokshin, Michael. 2004. “Household Childcare Choices and Capital Requirements: Implications of Basel II for Latin Women’s Work Behavior in Russia.” Journal of Human Re- American Countries.” Economía 5(2): 141–46. sources 39(4): 1094–115. Makdissi, Paul, Yannick Therrien, and Quentin Wodon. 2006. Lokshin, Michael M., and Monica Fong. 2006. “Women’s La- “L’Impact des Transferts Publics et des Taxes sur la Pau- bour Force Participation and Child Care in Romania.” Jour- vrete au Canada et aux Etats-Unis. (With English sum- nal of Development Studies 42(1): 90–109. mary.).” L’Actualite Economique/Revue D’Analyse Economique Lokshin, Michael M., and Martin Ravallion. 2005. “Rich and 82(3): 377–94. Powerful? Subjective Power and Welfare in Russia.” Journal Makdissi, Paul, and Quentin Wodon. 2006. “Environmental of Economic Behavior and Organization 56(2): 141–72. Regulation and Economic Growth under Education Exter- Lokshin, Michael M., Nithin Umapathi, and Stefano Paternos- nalities.” Journal of Economic Development 31(1): 45–51. tro. 2006. “Robustness of Subjective Welfare Analysis in a ______. 2006. “Fuel Poverty and Access to Electricity: Compar- Poor Developing Country: Madagascar 2001.” Journal of De- ing Households When They Differ in Need.” Applied Eco- velopment Studies 42(4): 559–91. nomics 38(9): 1071–78. Lokshin, Michael M., Monica Das Gupta, Michele Gragnolati, Maloney, William F., and Guillermo Perry. 2005. “Hacia una and Oleksiy Ivaschenko. 2005. “Improving Child Nutrition? Política de Innovación Eficiente.” (“Towards an Efficient The Integrated Child Development Services in India.” De- Innovation Policy in Latin America.”) Revista de la Cepal 87: velopment and Change 36(4): 613–40. 25–44. Lopez, Humberto. 2006. “Growth and Inequality: Are the 1990s Maloney, William F., and Gabriel V. Montes Rojas. 2005. “How Different?” Economics Letters 93(1): 18–25. Elastic Are Sea, Sand, and Sun? Dynamic Panel Estimates Lopez, Humberto, and Quentin Wodon. 2005. “The Economic of the Demand for Tourism.” Applied Economics Letters 12(5): Impact of Armed Conflict in Rwanda.” Journal of African 277–80. Economies 14(4): 586–602. Mangiaterra, Viviana, Minna Mattero, and Erika Dunkelberg. Love, Inessa, and Natalia Mylenko. 2005. “Credit Reporting and 2006. “Why and How to Invest in Neonatal Health.” Semi- Financing Constraints.” Credit Technology 50: 7–33. nars in Fetal and Neonatal Medicine 11(1): 37–47. Love, Inessa, and Lea Zicchino. 2006. “Financial Develop- Manning, Chris, and Kurnya Roesad. 2007. “The Manpower ment and Dynamic Investment Behavior: Evidence from Law of 2003 and Its Implementing Regulations: Genesis,

218 Key Articles and Potential Impact.” Bulletin of Indonesian “Mode of Foreign Entry, Technology Transfer, and FDI Pol- Economic Studies 43(1): 59–86. icy.” Journal of Development Economics 75(1): 95–111. ______. 2006. “Survey of Recent Developments.” Bulletin of In- Mattoo, Aaditya, Randeep Rathindran, and Arvind Subramanian. donesian Economic Studies 42(2): 143–70. 2006. “Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its Im- Markandya, Anil, and Suzette Pedroso-Galinato. 2007. “How pact on Economic Growth: An Illustration.” Journal of Eco- Substitutable Is Natural Capital?” Environmental and Re- nomic Integration 21(1): 64–98. source Economics 37(1): 297–312. Mattoo, Aaditya, and Arvind Subramanian. 2005. “Why Pros- Markandya, Anil, Alexander Golub, and Suzette Pedroso-Gali- pects for Trade Talks Are Not Bright.” Finance and Develop- nato. 2006. “Empirical Analysis of National Income and SO2 ment 42: 19–21. Emissions in Selected European Countries.” Environmental Mattoo, Aaditya, and Sacha Wunsch-Vincent. 2004. “Pre-Empt- and Resource Economics 35(3): 221–57. ing Protectionism in Services: the GATS and Outsourcing.” Markandya, Anil, Suzette Pedroso-Galinato, and Dalia Streimik- Journal of International Economic Law 7(4): 765–800. iene. 2006. “Energy Intensity in Transition Economies: Is Mavroidis, Petros C. 2006. “If I Don’t Do It Somebody Else Will There Convergence towards the EU Average?” Energy Eco- (or Won’t).” Journal of World Trade 40(1): 187–214. nomics 28(1): 121–45. May, John F. 2004. “Letting Them Die: Why HIV/AIDS Inter- Markusen, James, Thomas F. Rutherford, and David Tarr. 2005. vention Programmes Fail–A Book Review.” Population Stud- “Trade and Direct Investment in Producer Services and the ies 58(3): 366–67. Domestic Market for Expertise.” Canadian Journal of Eco- McKenzie, David J. 2006. “The Consumer Response to the nomics 38(3): 758–77. Mexican Peso Crisis.” Economic Development and Cultural Marquez, Patricio, Marc Suhrcke, Martin McKee, and Lorenzo Change 55(1): 139–72. Rocco. 2007. “Adult Health in the Russian Federation: More ______. 2006. “Disentangling Age, Cohort and Time Effects in than Just a Health Problem.” Health Affairs 26(4): 1040–51. the Additive Model.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statis- Marseille, Elliot, Lalit Dandona, Joseph Saba, Coline McConnel, tics 68(4): 473–95. Brandi Rollins, Paul Gaist, Mattias Lundberg, Mead Over, ______. 2006. “Precautionary Saving and Consumption Growth Stephano Bertozzi, and James G. Kahn. 2004. “Assessing the in Taiwan.” China Economic Review 17(1): 84–101. Efficiency of HIV Prevention around the World: Methods of Mckenzie, David, and Hillel Rapoport. 2007. “Network Effects the PANCEA Project.” Health Services Research 39(Suppl. 1): and the Dynamics of Migration and Inequality: Theory and 1993–2012. Evidence from Mexico.” Journal of Development Economics Marshall, Katherine. 2004. “Faith Perspectives for Development 84(1): 1–24. Institutions - New Faces of Compassion and Social Justice.” McKenzie, David J., and Christopher Woodruff. 2006. “Do En- International Journal 59(4): 893–901. try Costs Provide an Empirical Basis for Poverty Traps? Evi- ______. 2005. “Dreaming in Daylight.” Resurgence (232). dence from Mexican Microenterprises.” Economic Develop- Martin, William. 2004. “Models of the Chinese Economy– A ment and Cultural Change 55(1): 3–42. Book Review” Journal of Economic Literature 42(3): 875–77. Meerman, Jacob. 2005. “Oppressed People: Economic Mobility Martin, William, and Kym Anderson. 2006. “The Doha Agenda of the Socially Excluded.” Journal of Socio-Economics 34(4): Negotiations on Agriculture: What Could They Deliver?” 542–67. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(5): 1211–18. Megginson, William L. 2005. “The Economics of Bank Privati- ______. 2006. “US Proposal for Bold Reform in Global Agricul- zation.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8–9): 1931–80. ture Trade.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(5): Mendelsohn, Robert, Larry Williams, and Ariel Dinar. 2006. 1211–18. “The Distributional Impact of Climate Change on Rich and Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad. 2006. “The Economics of Micro- Poor Countries.” Environment and Development Economics finance.” Journal of International Economics 70(1): 328–33. 11(2): 159–78. Mattoo, Aaditya. 2005. “Services in a Development Round: Mendelsohn, Robert, Alan Basist, Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, and Three Goals and Three Proposals.” Journal of World Trade Ariel Dinar. 2007. “Climate and Rural Income.” Climatic 39(6): 1223–38. Change 81(1): 101–18. Mattoo, Aaditya, and Randeep Rathindran. 2006. “How Health Mendelsohn, Robert, Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, Alain Basist, Insurance Inhibits Trade in Health Care.” Health Affairs Claude Williams and Felix Kogan. 2007. “Climate Analysis 25(2): 358–68. with Satellite versus Weather Station Data.” Journal of Cli- Mattoo, Aaditya, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Kamal Saggi. 2004. matic Change. 80(1): 71–83.

219 Mengistae, Taye. 2006. “Competition and Entrepreneurs’ Hu- Mont, Daniel. 2007. “Measuring Health and Disability.” Lancet man Capital in Small Business Longevity and Growth.” 369(9573): 1658–63. Journal of Development Studies 42(5): 812–36. Montalvo, José Garcia, and Marta Reynal-Querol. 2005. “Ethnic Mesnard, Alice, and Martin Ravallion. 2006. “The Wealth Effect Diversity and Economic Development.” Journal of Develop- on New Business Startups in a Developing Economy.” Eco- ment Economics 76(2): 293–23. nomica 73(291): 367–92. ______. 2005. “Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Mete, Ceme. 2005. “Predictors of Elderly Mortality: Health Sta- Wars.” American Economic Review 95(3): 796–816. tus, Socioeconomic Characteristics and Social Determinants Montenegro, Claudio E., and Isidro Soloaga. 2006. “NAFTA’s of Health.” Health Economics 14(2): 135–48. 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220 tages of Geography and Sovereign Fragmentation.” Journal ed Tuberculosis.” The Journal of Infectious Diseases 196(Suppl of African Economies 15(Suppl. 2): 212–44. 1): S35–45. Neck, Reinhard, and Robert Holzmann. 2006. “Fiscal Policy and Onyebujoh, Philip, Alimuddin Zumla, Isabela Ribeiro, Roxa- Public Debt Sustainability in the EMU: Editorial.” Empirica na Rustomjee, Peter Mwaba, Melba Gomes, and John M. 33(2–3): 61–62. Grange. 2005. “Treatment of Tuberculosis: Present Status Neumark, David, Wendy Cunningham, and Lucas Siga. 2006. and Future Prospects.” Bulletin of the World Health Organiza- “The Effects of the Minimum Wage in Brazil on the Distri- tion 83(11): 857–65. bution of Family Incomes: 1996–2001.” Journal of Develop- Osoro, Nehemiah E., Hamisi H. Mwinyimvua, and Philip I.N. ment Economics 80(1): 136–59. 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221 Parker, Barbara, and Valerie Kozel. 2007. “Understanding Pov- from Bangladesh.” Economic Development and Cultural Change erty and Vulnerability in India’s Uttar Pradesh and Bihar: A 54(4): 791–831. Q-Squared Approach.” World Development 35(2): 296–311. Porto, Guido G. 2005. “Informal Export Barriers and Poverty.” Paternostro, Stefano, Anand Rajaram, and Erwin R. Tiongson. Journal of International Economics 66(2): 447–70. 2007. “How Does the Composition of Public Spending Mat- ______. 2006. “Using Survey Data to Assess the Distributional ter?” Oxford Development Studies 35(1): 47–82. Effects of Trade Policy.” Journal of International Economics Patrinos, Harry, and Gillette Hall. 2005. “Latin America’s Indig- 70(1): 140–60. enous Peoples.” Finance and Development 42(4): 23–25. 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222 lennium Development Goals: The Role of Infrastructure— Robalino, David A., and Peter G. Warr. 2006. “Poverty Reduction A Comment.” World Development 35(5): 920–28. through Fiscal Restructuring: An Application to Thailand.” ______. 2006. “Looking beyond Averages in the Trade and Pov- Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 11(3): 249–67. erty Debate.” World Development 34(8): 1374–92. Robertson, Susan E., and Joseph J. Valadez. 2006. “Global Re- ______. 2005. “On Measuring Aggregate ‘Social Efficiency’.” view of Health Care Surveys Using Lot Quality Assurance Economic Development and Cultural Change 53(2): 273–92. Sampling (LQAS), 1984–2004.” Social Science and Medicine Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2005. “Hidden Impact? 63(6): 1648–60. Household Saving in Response to a Poor-Area Development Roe, Terry, Ariel Dinar, Yacov Tsur, and Xinshen Diao. 2005. 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223 Schady, Norbert. 2006. “Early Childhood Development in Latin Simler, Kenneth R., and Channing Arndt. 2007. “Poverty Com- America and the Caribbean.” Economia: Journal of the Latin parisons with Absolute Poverty Lines Estimated from Sur- American and Caribbean Economic Association 6(2): 185–213. vey Data.” Review of Income and Wealth 53(2): 275–94. Schargrodsky, Ernesto, and David McKenzie. 2005. “Buying Singh, Ajit, Jack Glen, Ann Zammitt, Rafael De Hoyos, Alaka Less, but Shopping More: Changes in Consumption Pat- Singh, and Bruce Weisse. 2005. “Shareholder Value Maximi- terns during a Crisis.” BREAD Working Paper 092. Bureau sation, Stock Market and New Technology: Should the US for Research in Economic Analysis of Development, Cam- Corporate Model Be the Universal Standard?” International bridge, Massachusetts. Review of Applied Economics 19(4): 419–37. 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226 Environmental Performance: Evidence from China.” Envi- ______. 2005. “Using Household Survey Data to Measure Edu- ronmental and Resource Economics 36(3): 255–73. cational Performance: The Case of Ghana.” Social Indicators Wang, Hua, and David R. Wheeler. 2005. “Financial Incentives Research 74(2): 395–422. and Endogenous Enforcement in China’s Pollution Levy Whitten, Tony. 2006. “Cerulean Paradise-Flycatcher Not Ex- System.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management tinct: Subject of the First Cover Lives.” Conservation Biology 49(1): 174–96. 20(3): 918–20. Wang, Hua, and Dale Whittington. 2005. “Measuring Individu- Williams, Jonathan, and Nga Nguyen. 2005. “Financial Liber- als’ Valuation Distributions Using a Stochastic Payment Card alization, Crisis, and Restructuring: A Comparative Study Approach.” Ecological Economics 55(2): 143–54. of Bank Performance and Bank Governance in South East Wang, Tao. 2005. “Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations Asia.” Journal of Banking and Finance 29(8–9): 2119–54. in China.” Journal of Comparative Economics 33(4): 753–71. Wilson, David. 2005. “Partner Reduction and the Prevention of Wang, Yan, and Yudong Yao. 2007. “Measuring Downside Risk HIV/AIDS: The Most Effective Strategies Come from Com- and Severity for Global Output.” Journal of Forecasting 26(1): munities.” British Medical Journal 328: 848–49. 23–32. Wilson, John S., Catherine L. Mann, and Tsunehiro Otsuki. Warriner, I.K., O. Meirik, M. Hoffman, C. Morroni, J. Harries, 2005. “Assessing the Benefits of Trade Facilitation: A Global N.T. My Huong, N.D. Vy, and A.H. Seuc. 2006. “Rates of Perspective.” World Economy 28(6): 841–71. Complication in First-Trimester Manual Vacuum Aspira- Winters, L. Alan. 2006. “International Trade and Poverty: Cause tion Abortion Done by Doctors and Mid-Level Providers in or Cure?” Australian Economic Review 39(4): 347–58. South Africa and Vietnam: A Randomised Controlled Equiv- ______. 2006. “Globalization: What’s New?” Journal of Economic alence Trial.” Lancet 368(9551): 1965–72. Literature 44(1): 158–59. Watson, Robert T. 2005.”Turning Science into Policy: Chal- ______. 2005. “Small Economies in a Globalising World: The Poli- lenges and Experiences from the Science-Policy Interface.” cy Challenges Ahead.” Pacifi c Economic Review 20(30): 94–102. Philosophical Transaction Royal Society London Biological Sci- ______. 2005. “The European Agricultural Trade Policies and ence 360(1454): 471–77. Poverty.” European Review of Agricultural Economics 32(3): Watson, Roberr T., and Wilfried Haeberli. 2004.”Environmental 319–46. Threats, Mitigation Strategies and High-Mountain Areas.” Winters, L. Alan, and Pedro Martins. 2005. “Small Isn’t Beauti- Ambio (Spec)13: 2–10. ful: The Cost Disadvantages of Small Remote Economies.” Watson, R.T., J. Patz, J.D. Gubler, E.A. Parson, and J.H. Vin- Center Piece 10(2): 24–28. cent. 2005. “Environmental Health Implications of Global Winters, L. Alan, and Henry G. Overman. 2005. “The Port Geog- Climate Change.” Journal of Environmental Monitoring 7(9): raphy of UK International Trade.” Environment and Planning 834–43. A 37: 1751–68. Wellenius, Bjorn, and Isabel Neto. 2006. “The Radio Spectrum: Winters, L. Alan, and Terrie Walmsley. 2005. “Relaxing the Re- Opportunities and Challenges for the Developing World.” strictions on the Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: Info 8(2): 18–33. A Simulation Analysis.” Journal of Economic Integration 20(4): Wheeler, David. 2006. “Trade and the Environment: Theory and 688–726. Evidence–A Book Review.” Economic Development and Cul- Wodon, Quentin, and Shlomo Yitzhaki. 2006. “Convergence For- tural Change 54(2): 528–31. ward and Backward?” Economics Letters 92(1): 47–51. White, Elizabeth, Rosalia Rodriguez-Garcia, and Rama Balasun- ______. 2005. “Growth and Convergence: A Social Welfare daran. 2005. “Harmonization around Results Reporting: A Framework.” Review of Income and Wealth 51(3): 443–54. Synthesis of Four Country Studies.” Sustainable Development Woelcke, Johannes. 2006. “Technological and Policy Options for Law and Policy 6(1). Sustainable Agricultural Intensification in Eastern Uganda.” White, Howard. 2007. “The Bangladesh Health Swap: Expe- Agricultural Economics 34(2): 129–39. rience of a New Aid Instrument in Practice.” Development Woolcock, Michael. 2007. “Higher Education, Policy Schools, Policy Review 25(4): 451–72. and Development Studies: What Should Masters Degree ______. 2005. “Contributions Regarding the Impact of the Ban- Students Be Taught?” Journal of International Development gladesh Integrated Nutrition Project–A Comment.” Health 19(1): 55–73. Policy and Planning 20(6): 408–711. Woolcock, Michael. 2006. “Urbanization in India: Sociological ______. 2005. “The Case for Doubling Aid.” IDS Bulletin-Insti- Contributions–A Book Review.” Journal of Regional Science tute of Development Studies 36(3): 8–13. 46(2): 405–6.

227 World Health Organization. 2006. “Tracking Progress towards Acosta, Pablo. 2006. “Labor Supply, School Attendance, and Re- the Millennium Development Goals: Reaching Consensus mittances from International Migration: The Case of El Sal- on Child Mortality Levels and Trends.” Bulletin of the World vador.” Policy Research Working Paper 3903. Health Organization 84(3): 225–32. Acosta, Pablo, Cesar Calderon, Pablo Fajnzylber, and Humberto Wu, Ruth, Peter F. Orazem, and Milan Vodopivec. 2005. “Worker Lopez. 2007. “What Is the Impact of International Remit- Displacement during the Transition: Experience From Slo- tances on Poverty and Inequality in Latin America?” Policy venia.” Economics of Transition 13(2): 311–40. Research Working Paper 4249. Xu, Lixin Colin, Wei Li, and Christine Z. Qiang. 2005. “Dereg- Acosta, Pablo, Pablo Fajnzylber, and J. Humberto Lopez. 2007. ulating the Telecom Sector in Developing Countries: The “The Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Human Capi- Role of Democracy and Interest Groups.” World Development tal: Evidence from Latin American Household Surveys.” 33(8): 1307–24. Policy Research Working Paper 4247. Xu, Lixin Colin, Tian Zhu, and Yi-Min Lin. 2005. “Politician Adams, Richard H. Jr. 2004. “Remittances and Poverty in Guate- Control, Agency Problems, and Ownership Reform: Evi- mala.” Policy Research Working Paper 3418. dence from China.” Economics of Transition 13(1): 1–24. _____. 2005. “Remittances, Household Expenditure and Invest- Yazbeck, Abdo S. 2004.”Real and Perceived Threats to Repro- ment in Guatemala.” Policy Research Working Paper 3532. ductive Health: A Way Forward.” Reproductive Health Matters _____. 2006. “Remittances and Poverty in Ghana.” Policy Re- 12(24): 25–34. search Working Paper 3838. Yazbeck, Abdo S., and Sylvestre Gaudin. 2005. “Immunization _____. 2007. “International Remittances and the Household: in India 1993–1999: Wealth, Gender, and Regional Inequali- Analysis and Review of Global Evidence.” Policy Research ties Revisited.” Social Science and Medicine 62(3): 694–706. Working Paper 4116. Yinlong Jin, Xiao Ma, Xining Chen, Yibin Cheng, Enis Baris, Adasme, Osvaldo, Giovanni Majnoni, and Myriam Uribe. 2006. Majid Ezzati. 2006. “Exposure to Indoor Air Pollution from “Access and Risk - Friends or Foes? Lessons from Chile.” Household Energy Use in Rural China: The Interactions of Policy Research Working Paper 4003. Technology, Behavior, and Knowledge in Health Risk Man- Adeyi, Olusoji, Sarah Darley, Katherine Floyd, Christopher Dye, agement.” Social Science and Medicine 62(12): 3161–76. Eili Klein, and Ramanan Laxminarayan. 2007. “Economic Yusuf, Shahid, and Kaoru Nabeshima. 2005. “Creative Industries Benefit of Tuberculosis Control.” Policy Research Working in East Asia.” Cities 22 (2): 109–22. Paper 4295. Yusuf, Shahid, Kaoru Nabeshima, and Wei Ha. 2007. “Income Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Nihal Bayraktar, and Karim El Aynaoui. and Health in Cities: The Messages from Stylized Facts.” 2005. “Roads Out of Poverty? Assessing The Links Between Journal of Urban Health 84(Suppl. 1): 35–41. Aid, Public Investment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction.” Zagha, Roberto, Gobind Nankani, and Indermit Gill. 2006. “Re- Policy Research Working Paper 3490. thinking Growth.” Finance and Development 43(1): 7–11. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Nihal Bayraktar, and Emmanuel Pinto Zang, Hyoungsoo, and Young Chul Kim. 2007. “Does Financial Moreira. 2006. “Linking Public Investment Programs and Development Precede Growth? Robinson and Lucas Might SPAHD Macro Models: Methodology and Application to Aid Be Right.” Applied Economics Letters 14(1): 15–19. Requirements.” Policy Research Working Paper 3944. Zhan, Shaokang, Lanxiang Wang, Aitian Yin, and Erik Blas. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Nihal Bayraktar, Emmanuel Pinto Mor- 2004. “Revenue-Driven in TB Control: Three Cases in Chi- eira, and Karim El Aynaoui. 2005. “Achieving The Millenni- na.” International Journal of Health Planning and Management um Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeco- 19(Suppl. 1): S63–78. nomic Monitoring Framework.” Policy Research Working Zheng, Kangbin, and Min Ji. 2005. “An Overview of China’s Paper 3750. Bond Markets.” China and World Economy 13(6): 27–39. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Henning Tarp Jensen, Mathew Verghis, Zhu, Da, and Jiang Ru. 2007. “Strategic Environmental Assess- and Erinc Yeldan. 2006. “Disinflation, Fiscal Sustainability, ment in China: Motivations, Politics, and Effectiveness.” and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey.” Policy Research Journal of Environmental Management. Working Paper 3804. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, and Blanca Moreno-Dodson. 2006. E. World Bank Policy Research Working Papers “Public Infrastructure and Growth: New Channels and Poli- cy Implications.” Policy Research Working Paper 4064. Abramson, Bruce. 2007. “India’s Journey toward an Effective Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Mustapha K. Nabli, and Tarik M. Yousef. Patent.” Policy Research Working Paper 4301. 2005. “Public Infrastructure and Private Investment in the

228 Middle East and North Africa.” Policy Research Working Almeida, Rita, and Pedro Carneiro. 2005. “Enforcement of La- Paper 3661. bor Regulation, Informal Labor, and Firm Performance.” Aggarwal, Reena, Sandeep Dahiya, and Leora Klapper. 2005. Policy Research Working Paper 3756. “American Depositary Receipts (ADR) Holdings of U.S. _____. 2006. “The Return to Firm Investment in Human Capi- Based Emerging Market Funds.” Policy Research Working tal.” Policy Research Working Paper 3851. Paper 3538. Almeida, Rita, and Ana Margarida Fernandes. 2006. “Openness Aggarwal, Reena, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Maria Soledad Mar- and Technological Innovations in Developing Countries: tinez Peria. 2006. “Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Finan- Evidence from Firm-Level Surveys.” Policy Research Work- cial Development?” Policy Research Working Paper 3957. ing Paper 3985. Ahmad, Junaid, Shantayanan Devarajan, and Stuti Khemani. Almeida, Rita, and Emanuela Galasso. 2007. “Jump-Starting 2005. “Decentralization and Service Delivery.” Policy Re- Self-Employment? Evidence Among Welfare Participants in search Working Paper 3603. Argentina.” Policy Research Working Paper 4270. Ahmad, Junaid, Shantayanan Devarajan, Stuti Khemani, and Alsop, Ruth, and Nina Heinsohn. 2005. “Measuring Empower- Shekhar Shah. 2005. “Decentralization and Service Deliv- ment in Practice: Structuring Analysis and Framing Indica- ery.” Policy Research Working Paper 3603. tors.” Policy Research Working Paper 3510. Ahsan, Ahmad, and Carmen Pages. 2007. “Are All Labor Regula- Amin, Mohammad. 2007. “Are Labor Regulations Driving Com- tions Equal? Assessing The Effects of Job Security, Labor puter Usage in India’s Retail Stores?” Policy Research Work- Dispute, and Contract Labor Laws in India.” Policy Re- ing Paper 4274. search Working Paper 4259. Amin, Mohammad, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2005. “Does Temporary Akresh, Richard, Philip Verwimp, and Tom Bundervoet. 2007. Migration Have to Be Permanent?” Policy Research Work- “Civil War, Crop Failure, and Child Stunting in Rwanda.” ing Paper 3582. Policy Research Working Paper 4208. _____. 2006. “Can Guest Worker Schemes Reduce Illegal Migra- Aksoy, M. Ataman, and Aylin Isik-Dikmelik. 2007. “The Role tion?” Policy Research Working Paper 3828. of Services in Rural Income: The Case of Vietnam.” Policy _____. 2006. “Do Institutions Matter More for Services?” Policy Research Working Paper 4180. Research Working Paper 4032. Aldaz-Carroll, Enrique. 2006. “Regional Approaches to Better _____. 2007. “Migration from Zambia: Ensuring Tempo- Standards Systems.” Policy Research Working Paper 3948. rariness through Cooperation.” Policy Research Working Alderman, Harold, Hans Hoogeveen, and Mariacristina Rossi. Paper 4145. 2005. “Reducing Child Malnutrition in Tanzania - Combined Amiti, Mary, and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik. 2005. “Trade Costs Effects of Income Growth and Program Interventions.” Poli- and Location of Foreign Firms in China.” Policy Research cy Research Working Paper 3567. Working Paper 3564. Ali, Daniel Ayalew, and Klaus Deininger. 2007. “Do Overlapping Anderson, Jock R., Gershon Feder, and Sushma Ganguly. 2006. Property Rights Reduce Agricultural Investment? Evidence “The Rise and Fall of Training and Visit Extension: An from Uganda.” Policy Research Working Paper 4310. Asian Mini-Drama with an African Epilogue.” Policy Re- Allayannis, George, Gregory W. Brown, and Leora F. Klapper. search Working Paper 3928. 2005. “Legal Effectiveness and External Capital: The Role Anderson, Kym. 2004. “Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty of Foreign Debt.” Policy Research Working Paper 3530. Reduction in Developing Countries.” Policy Research Work- Allcott, Hunt, Daniel Lederman, and Ramon Lopez. 2006. “Po- ing Paper 3396. litical Institutions, Inequality, and Agricultural Growth: The _____. 2004. “The Challenge of Reducing Subsidies and Trade Public Expenditure Connection.” Policy Research Working Barriers.” Policy Research Working Paper 3415. Paper 3902. _____. 2005. “Setting the Trade Policy Agenda: What Roles for Allen, Franklin, Rajesh Chakrabarti, Sankar De, Jun Qian, and Economists?” Policy Research Working Paper 3560. Meijun Qian. 2006. “Financing Firms in India.” Policy Re- _____. 2006. “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: search Working Paper 3975. Progress, Pitfalls, and Prospects.” Policy Research Working Alm, James, Patricia Annez, and Arbind Modi. 2004. “Stamp Du- Paper 4092. ties in Indian States - A Case For Reform.” Policy Research Anderson, Kym, Richard Damania, and Lee Ann Jackson. 2004. Working Paper 3413. “Trade, Standards, and the Political Economy of Genetically Almeida, Rita. 2005. “Local Economic Structure and Growth.” Modified Food.” Policy Research Working Paper 3395. Policy Research Working Paper 3728. Anderson, Kym, and Lee Ann Jackson. 2004. “Implications of

229 Genetically Modified Food Technology Policies For Sub- Combining the Von Thunen and Forest Transition Theo- Saharan Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper 3411. ries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4117. Anderson, Kym , Lee Ann Jackson, and Chantal Pohl Nielsen. Annabi, Nabil, Bazlul Khondker, Selim Raihan, John Cockburn, 2004. “Genetically Modified Rice Adoption: Implications for and Bernard Decaluwe. 2006. “Implications of WTO Agree- Welfare and Poverty Alleviation.” Policy Research Working ments and Unilateral Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Paper 3380. Bangladesh: Short versus Long-Run Impacts.” Policy Re- Anderson, Kym, and Will Martin. 2005. “Agricultural Trade Re- search Working Paper 3976. form and the Doha Development Agenda.” Policy Research Annez, Patricia Clarke. 2006. “Urban Infrastructure Finance Working Paper 3607. from Private Operators: What Have We Learned from Re- Anderson, Kym, Will Martin, and Dominique van der Mensbrug- cent Experience?” Policy Research Working Paper 4045. ghe. 2005. “Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricul- Anos Casero, Paloma, and Ganesh Seshan. 2006. “Fiscal and tural Markets and Farm Incomes.” Policy Research Working Social Impact of a Nominal Exchange Rate Devaluation in Paper 3736. Djibouti.” Policy Research Working Paper 4028. _____. 2005. “Global Impacts of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios _____. 2006. “Public-Private Sector Wage Differentials and Re- on Poverty.” Policy Research Working Paper 3735. turns to Education in Djibouti.” Policy Research Working _____. 2005. “Would Multilateral Trade Reform Benefit Sub- Paper 3923. Saharan Africans?” Policy Research Working Paper 3616. Antman, Francisca, and David J. McKenzie. 2005. “Earnings Mo- _____. 2006. “Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What’s at bility and Measurement Error: A Pseudo-Panel Approach.” Stake for Developing Countries?” Policy Research Working Policy Research Working Paper 3745. Paper 3848. _____. 2005. “Poverty Traps and Nonlinear Income Dynamics Anderson, Kym, Will Martin, and Ernesto Valenzuela. 2006. with Measurement Error and Individual Heterogeneity.” “The Relative Importance of Global Agricultural Subsidies Policy Research Working Paper 3764. and Market Access.” Policy Research Working Paper 3900. Araujo, M. Caridad, Francisco H.G. Ferreira, Peter Lanjouw, Anderson, Kym, and Ernesto Valenzuela. 2006. “Do Global and Berk Ozler. 2006. “Local Inequality and Project Choice: Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farm- Theory and Evidence from Ecuador.” Policy Research Work- ers?” Policy Research Working Paper 3901. ing Paper 3997. _____. 2006. “The World Trade Organization’s Doha Cotton Arena, Marco. 2006. “Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues.” Policy Research Working Economic Growth? Country Study for Industrial and Devel- Paper 3918. oping Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4098. Anderson, Kym, Ernesto Valenzuela, and Lee Ann Jackson. Arestoff, Florence, and Christophe Hurlin. 2006. “Estimates of 2006. “Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Government Net Capital Stocks for 26 Developing Coun- Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilib- tries, 1970-2002.” Policy Research Working Paper 3858. rium Analysis of Economic Impacts.” Policy Research Work- Arias, Omar, Andreas Blom, Mariano Bosch, Wendy Cunning- ing Paper 3917. ham, Ariel Fiszbein, Gladys Lopez Acevedo, Maloney Wil- Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das, and Asim Ijaz Khwaja. 2006. “A Dime liam, Jaime Saavedra, Carolina Sanchez-Paramo, Mauricio a Day: The Possibilities and Limits of Private Schooling in Santamaria, and Lucas Siga. 2005. “Pending Issues in Pro- Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 4066. tection, Productivity Growth, and Poverty Reduction.” Poli- Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja, and Tristan Za- cy Research Working Paper 3799. jonc. 2005. “Religious School Enrollment in Pakistan: A Armecin, Graeme, Jere R. Behrman, Paulita Duazo, Sharon Ghu- Look at the Data.” Policy Research Working Paper 3521. man, Socorro Gultiano, Elizabeth M. King, and Nannette Andres, Luis, Vivien Foster, and Jose Luis Guasch. 2006. “The Lee. 2006. “Early Childhood Development through an In- Impact of Privatization on the Performance of the Infrastruc- tegrated Program: Evidence from the Philippines.” Policy ture Sector: The Case of Electricity Distribution in Latin Research Working Paper 3922. American Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3936. Arndt, Channing. 2005. “The Doha Trade Round and Mozam- Angel-Urdinola, Diego F., and Shweta Jain. 2006. “Do Subsidized bique.” Policy Research Working Paper 3717. Health Programs in Armenia Increase Utilization among the Arnold, Jens Matthias, and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik. 2005. Poor?” Policy Research Working Paper 4017. “Gifted Kids or Pushy Parents? Foreign Acquisitions and Angelsen, Arild. 2007. “Forest Cover Change in Space and Time: Plant Performance in Indonesia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3597.

230 Arnold, Jens, Beata S. Javorcik, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2007. “Does Baffes, John. 2006. “Restructuring Uganda’s Coffee Industry: Services Liberalization Benefit Manufacturing Firms? Evi- Why Going Back to the Basics Matters.” Policy Research dence from the Czech Republic.” Policy Research Working Working Paper 4020. Paper 4109. Baffes, John, and Harry De Gorter. 2005. “Disciplining Agricul- Arnold, Jens Matthias, Aaditya Mattoo, and Gaia Narciso. 2006. tural Support through Decoupling.” Policy Research Work- “Services Inputs and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan ing Paper 3533. Africa: Evidence from Firm-Level Data.” Policy Research Baffes, John, and Gaston Gohou. 2005. “The Co-Movement be- Working Paper 4048. tween Cotton and Polyester Prices.” Policy Research Work- Aroca, Patricio, Mariano Bosch, and William F. Maloney. 2005. ing Paper 3534. “Spatial Dimensions of Trade Liberalization and Economic Bagai, Shweta, and John S. Wilson. 2006. “The Data Chase: Convergence: Mexico 1985-2002.” Policy Research Working What’s Out There on Trade Costs and Nontariff Barriers?” Paper 3744. Policy Research Working Paper 3899. Aroca Gonzalez, Patricio, and William F. Maloney. 2005. “Migra- Bahl, Roy, and Jorge Martinez-Vazquez. 2006. “Sequencing Fis- tion, Trade, and Foreign Investment in Mexico.” Policy Re- cal Decentralization.” Policy Research Working Paper 3914. search Working Paper 3601. Baker, Judy L. 2006. “Integrated Urban Ugrading for the Poor: Arunanondchai, Jutamas, and Carsten Fink. 2007. “Trade in The Experience of Ribeira Azul, Brazil.” Policy Research Health Services in the ASEAN Region.” Policy Research Working Paper 3861. Working Paper 4147. Baker, Judy, Rakhi Basu, Maureen Cropper, Somik Lall, and Arvis, Jean-Francois, Gael Raballand, and Jean-Francois Mar- Akie Takeuchi. 2005. “Urban Poverty and Transport: The teau. 2007. “The Cost of Being Landlocked: Logistics Costs Case of Mumbai.” Policy Research Working Paper 3693. and Supply Chain Reliability.” Policy Research Working Pa- Baker, Judy, and Nina Schuler. 2004. “Analyzing Urban Poverty: per 4258. A Summary of Methods and Approached.” Policy Research Aubert, Jean-Eric. 2005. “Promoting Innovation in Develop- Working Paper 3399. ing Countries: A Conceptual Framework.” Policy Research Balat, Jorge F., and Guido G. Porto. 2005. “The WTO Doha Working Paper 3554. Round, Cotton Sector Dynamics, and Poverty Trends in Auriol, Emmanuelle, and Pierre M. Picard. 2006. “Infrastructure Zambia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3697. and Public Utilities Privatization in Developing Countries.” Baller, Silja. 2007. “Trade Effects of Regional Standards Liberal- Policy Research Working Paper 3950. ization: A Heterogeneous Firms Approach.” Policy Research Aysan, Ahmet Faruk, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, and Marie-Ange Working Paper 4124. Veganzones-Varoudakis. 2006. “Governance and Private In- Bandiera, Luca, Nina Budina, Michel Klijn, and Sweder van vestment in the Middle East and North Africa.” Policy Re- Wijnbergen. 2007. “The ‘How to’ of Fiscal Sustainability: A search Working Paper 3934. Technical Manual for Using the Fiscal Sustainability Tool.” Ayyagari, Meghana, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksi- Policy Research Working Paper 4170. movic. 2005. “How Well Do Institutional Theories Explain Bando, Rosangela, Luis F. Lopez-Calva, and Harry Anthony Pa- Firms’ Perceptions of Property Rights?” Policy Research trinos. 2005. “Child Labor, School Attendance, and Indige- Working Paper 3709. nous Households: Evidence from Mexico.” Policy Research _____. 2006. “How Important Are Financing Constraints? The Working Paper 3487. Role of Finance in the Business Environment.” Policy Re- Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit, Priya Shyamsundar, and Alessandro search Working Paper 3820. Baccini. 2006. “Forests, Biomass Use, and Poverty in Ma- _____. 2006. “What Determines Protection of Property Rights? lawi.” Policy Research Working Paper 4068. An Analysis of Direct and Indirect Effects.” Policy Research Banerjee, Abhijit, Rukmini Banerji, Esther Duflo, Rachel Working Paper 3940. Glennerster, and Stuti Khemani. 2006. “Can Information _____. 2007. “Firm Innovation in Emerging Markets: The Roles Campaigns Spark Local Participation and Improve Out- of Governance and Finance.” Policy Research Working Pa- comes? A Study of Primary Education in Uttar Pradesh, In- per 4157. dia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3967. Baclajanschi, Iaroslav, Lawrence Bouton, Hideki Mori, Dejan Baracat, Elias, and Julio J. Nogues. 2005. “WTO Safeguards and Ostojic, Taras Pushak, and Erwin R. Tiongson. 2006. “The Trade Liberalization: Lessons from the Argentine Footwear Impact of Energy Price Changes in Moldova.” Policy Re- Case.” Policy Research Working Paper 3614. search Working Paper 3960. Barbone, Luca, and Katrina Sharkey. 2006. “Strengthening

231 Governance through Engaged Societies: Lessons from the Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Maria Soledad Marti- Implementation of Poverty Reduction Strategies.” Policy nez Peria. 2005. “Reaching Out: Access to and Use of Bank- Research Working Paper 3898. ing Services across Countries.” Policy Research Working Barrera-Osorio, Felipe. 2007. “The Impact of Private Provision Paper 3754. of Public Education: Empirical Evidence from Bogota’s _____. 2006. “Banking Services for Everyone? Barriers to Bank Concession Schools.” Policy Research Working Paper 4121. Access and Use around the World.” Policy Research Working Barron, Patrick, Rachael Diprose, and Michael Woolcock. 2007. Paper 4079. “Local Conflict and Development Projects in Indonesia: Beck, Thorsten, and Michael Fuchs. 2004. “Structural Issues in Part of the Problem or Part of a Solution?” Policy Research the Kenyan Financial System: Improving Competition and Working Paper 4212. Access.” Policy Research Working Paper 3363. Barron, Patrick, Kai Kaiser, and Menno Pradhan. 2004. “Local Beck, Thorsten, and Heiko Hesse. 2006. “Bank Efficiency, Own- Conflict in Indonesia: Measuring Incidence and Identifying ership, and Market Structure: Why Are Interest Spreads So Patterns.” Policy Research Working Paper 3384. High in Uganda?” Policy Research Working Paper 4027. Bartelsman, Eric, John Haltiwanger, and Stefano Scarpetta. Beck, Thorsten, and Luc Laeven. 2005. “Institution Build- 2004. “Microeconomic Evidence of Creative Destruction ing and Growth in Transition Economies.” Policy Research in Industrial and Developing Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3657. Working Paper 3464. _____. 2006. “Resolution of Failed Banks by Deposit Insur- Baschieri, Angela, Jane Falkingham, Duncan Hornby, and Craig ers: Cross-Country Evidence.” Policy Research Working Hutton. 2005. “Creating a Poverty Map for Azerbaijan.” Pol- Paper 3920. icy Research Working Paper 3793. Beck, Thorsten, and Md. Habibur Rahman. 2006. “Creating a Basu, Priya, and Pradeep Srivastava. 2005. “Scaling-Up Micro- More Efficient Financial System: Challenges for Bangla- finance for India’s Rural Poor.” Policy Research Working desh.” Policy Research Working Paper 3938. Paper 3646. Beegle, Kathleen, Joachim De Weerdt, and Stefan Dercon. 2006. Bayraktar, Nihal, and Hippolyte Fofack. 2007. “Specification of “Adult Mortality and Consumption Growth in the Age of Investment Functions in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Policy Re- HIV/AIDS.” Policy Research Working Paper 4082. search Working Paper 4171. Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev Dehejia, and Roberta Gatti. 2005. Bayraktar, Nihal, and Yan Wang. 2004. “Foreign Bank Entry, “Why Should We Care about Child Labor? The Education, Performance of Domestic Banks, and Sequence of Financial Labor Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor.” Liberalization.” Policy Research Working Paper 3416. Policy Research Working Paper 3479. ______. 2006. “Banking Sector Openness and Economic Beegle, Kathleen, and Sofya Krutikova. 2007. “Adult Mortality Growth.” Policy Research Working Paper 4019. and Children’s Transition into Marriage.” Policy Research Baysan, Tercan, Arvind Panagariya, and Nihal Pitigala. 2006. Working Paper 4139. “Preferential Trading in South Asia.” Policy Research Work- Behrman, Jere R., Alexis Murphy, Agnes Quisumbing, Usha Ra- ing Paper 3813. makrishnan, and Kathyrn Yount. 2006. “What Is the Real Im- Beck, Thorsten. 2006. “Creating an Efficient Financial System: pact of Schooling on Age of First Union and Age of First Par- Challenges in a Global Economy.” Policy Research Working enting? New Evidence from Guatemala.” Policy Research Paper 3856. Working Paper 4023. Beck, Thorsten, Juan Miguel Crivelli, and William Summerhill. Bell, Clive, Ramona Bruhns, and Hans Gersbach. 2006. “Eco- 2005. “State Bank Transformation in Brazil - Choices and nomic Growth, Education, and AIDS in Kenya: A Long-Run Consequences.” Policy Research Working Paper 3619. Analysis.” Policy Research Working Paper 4025. Beck, Thorsten, Robert Cull, and Afeikhena Jerome. 2005. Benitez, Daniel, and Antonio Estache. 2005. “How Concen- “Bank Privatization and Performance - Emprical Evidence trated Are Global Infrastructure Markets?” Policy Research from Nigeria.” Policy Research Working Paper 3511. Working Paper 3513. Beck, Thorsten, and Augusto de la Torre. 2006. “The Basic Berger, Allen N., George R.G. Clarke, Robert Cull, Leora Klap- Analytics of Access to Financial Services.” Policy Research per, and Gregory F. Udell. 2005. “Corporate Governance and Working Paper 4026. Bank Performance: A Joint Analysis of the Static, Selection, Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Luc Laeven, and Ross and Dynamic Effects of Domestic, Foreign, and State Own- Levine. 2005. “Finance, Firm Size, and Growth.” Policy Re- ership.” Policy Research Working Paper 3632. search Working Paper 3485. Berger, Allen N., Leora F. Klapper, Maria Soledad Martinez Pe-

232 ria, and Rida Zaidi. 2006. “Bank Ownership Type and Bank- Management in Eight Basins.” Policy Research Working ing Relationships.” Policy Research Working Paper 3862. Paper 3636. Berger, Allen N., and Gregory F. Udell. 2005. “A More Complete Blomquist, William, Consuelo Giansante, Anjali Bhat, and Karin Conceptual Framework for Financing of Small and Medium Kemper. 2005. “Institutional and Policy Analysis of River Enterprises.” Policy Research Working Paper 3795. Basin Management: The Gudalquivir River Basin, Spain.” Berglof, Erik, and Stijn Claessens. 2004. “Enforcement and Cor- Policy Research Working Paper 3526. porate Governance.” Policy Research Working Paper 3409. Blomquist, William, Brian Haisman, Ariel Dinar, and Anjali Berlinski, Samuel, Sebastian Galiani, and Marco Manacorda. Bhat. 2005. “Institutional and Policy Analysis of River Basin 2007. “Giving Children a Better Start: Preschool Atten- Management: The Murray Darling River Basin, Austrialia.” dance and School-Age Profiles.” Policy Research Working Policy Research Working Paper 3527. Paper 4240. Blomquist, William, Andrzej Tonderski, and Ariel Dinar. 2005. Berman, Eli, Rohini Somanathan, and Hong W. Tan. 2005. “Is “Institutional and Policy Analysis of River Basin Manage- Skill-Biased Technological Change Here Yet? Evidence ment: The Warta River Basin, Poland.” Policy Research from Indian Manufacturing in the 1990s.” Policy Research Working Paper 3528. Working Paper 3761. Bogetic, Zeljko. 2006. “International Benchmarking of Leso- Bhat, Anjali, Kikkeri Ramu, and Karin Kemper. 2005. “Institu- tho’s Infrastructure Performance.” Policy Research Working tional and Policy Analysis of River Basin Management: The Paper 3825. Brantas River Basin, East Java, Indonesia.” Policy Research Bogetic, Zeljko, and Johannes W. Fedderke. 2006. “Forecasting Working Paper 3611. Investment Needs in South Africa’s Electricity and Telecom- Bhattacharya, Soma, Anna Alberini, and Maureen L. Cropper. munications Sectors.” Policy Research Working Paper 3829. 2006. “The Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Delhi, In- _____. 2006. “International Benchmarking of Infrastructure dia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3995. Performance in the Southern African Customs Union Coun- Biggs, Tyler, and Manju Kedia Shah. 2006. “African Small and tries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3987. Medium Enterprises, Networks, and Manufacturing Perfor- _____. 2006. “International Benchmarking of South Africa’s mance.” Policy Research Working Paper 3855. Infrastructure Performance.” Policy Research Working Bigsten, Arne, Taye Mengistae, and Abebe Shimeles. 2007. Paper 3830. “Mobility and Earnings in Ethiopia’s Urban Labor Markets, Bogomolova, Tatiana, Gregorio Impavido, and Montserrat Pal- 1994-2004.” Policy Research Working Paper 4168. lares-Miralles. 2006. “An Assessment of Reform Options for Bigsten, Arne, and Mans Soderbom. 2005. “What Have We the Public Service Pension Fund in Uganda.” Policy Re- Learned from a Decade of Manufacturing Enterprise Sur- search Working Paper 4091. veys in Africa?” Policy Research Working Paper 3798. Bosch, Mariano, Daniel Lederman, and William F. Maloney. Bjorkman, Martina, and Jakob Svensson. 2007. “Power to the 2005. “Patenting and Research and Development: A Global People: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment of View.” Policy Research Working Paper 3739. a Community-Based Monitoring Project in Uganda.” Policy Bosch, Mariano, and William Maloney. 2005. “Labor Market Dy- Research Working Paper 4268. namics in Developing Countries: Comparative Analysis Us- Blanco, Fernando, and Santiago Herrera. 2006. “The Quality of ing Continuous Time Markov Processes.” Policy Research Fiscal Adjustment and the Long-Run Growth Impact of Fis- Working Paper 3583. cal Policy in Brazil.” Policy Research Working Paper 4004. _____. 2006. “Gross Worker Flows in The Presence of Informal Blomquist, William, Maureen Ballestero, Anjali Bhat, and Karin Labor Markets: The Mexican Experience 1987-2002.” Poli- Kemper. 2005. “Institutional and Policy Analysis of River cy Research Working Paper 3883. Basin Management: The Tarcoles River Basin, Costa Rica.” Bott, Sarah, Andrew Morrison, and Mary Ellsberg. 2005. “Pre- Policy Research Working Paper 3612. venting and Responding to Gender-Based Violence in Blomquist, William, Ken S. Calbick, and Ariel Dinar. 2005. “In- Middle and Low-Income Countries: A Global Review and stitutional and Policy Analysis of River Basin Management: Analysis.” Policy Research Working Paper 3618. The Fraser River Basin, Canada.” Policy Research Working Bourguignon, Francois, Chor-ching Goh, and Dae Il Kim. 2004. Paper 3525. “Estimating Individual Vulnerability to Poverty with Pseu- Blomquist, William, Ariel Dinar, and Karin Kemper. 2005. do-Panel Data.” Policy Research Working Paper 3375. “Comparison of Institutional Arrangements for River Basin Bourguignon, Francois, Victoria Levin, and David Rosenblatt.

233 2006. “Global Redistribution of Income.” Policy Research “Nigeria’s Growth Record: Dutch Disease or Debt Over- Working Paper 3961. hang?” Policy Research Working Paper 4256. Bown, Chad P. 2005. “Global Antidumping Database Version Budina, Nina, and Sweder van Wijnbergen. 2007. “Quantitative 1.0.” Policy Research Working Paper 3737. Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A New World _____. 2005. “Trade Remedies and World Trade Organization Bank Tool Applied to Turkey.” Policy Research Working Pa- Dispute Settlement: Why Are So Few Challenged?” Policy per 4169. Research Working Paper 3540. Bugamelli, Matteo, and Francesco Paterno. 2005. “Do Workers’ _____. 2006. “The World Trade Organization and Antidump- Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Re- ing in Developing Countries.” Policy Research Working versals?” Policy Research Working Paper 3766. Paper 4014. Busse, Matthias. 2004. “Trade, Environmental Regulations, and Brambilla, Irene, and Guido G. Porto. 2006. “Farm Productiv- the World Trade Organization: New Empirical Evidence.” ity and Market Structure: Evidence from Cotton Reforms in Policy Research Working Paper 3361. Zambia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3904. Busse, Matthias, and Jose Luis Groizard. 2006. “Foreign Direct Braun, Matias, and Claudio Raddatz. 2005. “Trade Liberaliza- Investment, Regulations, and Growth.” Policy Research tion and the Politics of Financial Development.” Policy Re- Working Paper 3882. search Working Paper 3517. Bussolo, Maurizio, Olivier Godart, Jann Lay, and Rainer Thiele. Bravo-Ortega, Claudio, and Jose de Gregorio. 2005. “The Rela- 2006. “The Impact of Commodity Price Changes on Rural tive Richness of the Poor? Natural Resources, Human Households: The Case of Coffee in Uganda.” Policy Re- Capital, and Economic Growth.” Policy Research Working search Working Paper 4088. Paper 3484. Bussolo, Maurizio, Jann Lay, and Dominique van der Mensbrug- Bravo-Ortega, Claudio, and Daniel Lederman. 2005. “Agricul- ghe. 2006. “Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in ture and National Welfare around the World: Causality and Brazil: The Impact of the Doha Round.” Policy Research International Heterogeneity Since 1960.” Policy Research Working Paper 3833. Working Paper 3499. Bussolo, Maurizio, and Denis Medvedev. 2007. “Do Remittanc- Brenton, Paul, and Mombert Hoppe. 2006. “The African Growth es Have a Flip Side? A General Equilibrium Analysis of Re- and Opportunity Act, Exports, and Development in Sub- mittances, Labor Supply Responses, and Policy Options for Saharan Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper 3996. Jamaica.” Policy Research Working Paper 4143. Briceno-Garmendia, Cecilia, Antonio Estache, and Nemat Bussolo, Maurizio, and Yoko Niimi. 2006. “Do Regional Trade Shafik. 2004. “Infrastructure Services in Developing Coun- Pacts Benefit The Poor? An Illustration from the Dominican tries: Access, Quality, Costs and Policy Reform.” Policy Re- Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement in Nica- search Working Paper 3468. ragua.” Policy Research Working Paper 3850. Broner, Fernando A., Guido Lorenzoni, and Sergio L. Schmukler. Buys, Piet, Uwe Deichmann, and David Wheeler. 2006. “Road 2004. “Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?” Network Upgrading and Overland Trade Expansion in Sub- Policy Research Working Paper 3389. Saharan Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper 4097. Brown, J. David, and John S. Earle. 2006. “The Microeconom- Cadot, Olivier, Jaime de Melo, and Alberto Portugal-Perez. 2006. ics of Creating Productive Jobs: A Synthesis of Firm-Level “Rules of Origin for Preferential Trading Arrangements: Im- Studies in Transition Economies.” Policy Research Working plications for the ASEAN Free Trade Area of EU and U.S. Paper 3886. Experience.” Policy Research Working Paper 4016. Bruno, Valentina G., and Stijn Claessens. 2007. “Corporate Gov- Cadot, Olivier, Laure Dutoit, and Jaime de Melo. 2006. “The ernance and Regulation: Can There Be too Much of a Good Elimination of Madagascar’s Vanilla Marketing Board, Ten Thing?” Policy Research Working Paper 4140. Years On.” Policy Research Working Paper 3979. Buckley, Robert M., and Jerry Kalarickal. 2004. “Shelter Strate- Cadot, Olivier, Laure Dutoit, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. gies for the Urban Poor: Idiosyncratic and Successful, but “How Costly Is It for Poor Farmers to Lift Themselves out Hardly Mysterious.” Policy Research Working Paper 3427. of Poverty?” Policy Research Working Paper 3881. Buddelmeyer, Hielke, and Emmanuel Skoufias. 2004. “An Calderon, Cesar, Norman Loayza, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. Evaluation of the Performance of Regression Disconti- 2005. “Does Openness Imply Greater Exposure?” Policy nuity Design on PROGRESA.” Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 3733. Paper 3386. Calderon, Cesar, and Luis Serven. 2004. “The Effects of Infra- Budina, Nina, Gaobo Pang, and Sweder van Wijnbergen. 2007.

234 structure Development on Growth and Income Distribu- “Openness, Industrialization, and Geographic Concen- tion.” Policy Research Working Paper 3400. tration of Activities in China.” Policy Research Working _____. 2004. “Trends in Infrastructure in Latin America, Paper 3706. 1980–2001.” Policy Research Working Paper 3401. Cattaneo, Matias D., Sebastian Galiano, Paul J. Gertler, Sebas- Calomiris, Charles W., Daniela Klingebiel, and Luc Laeven. tian Martinez, and Rocio Titiunik. 2007. “Housing, Health, 2004. “A Taxonomy of Financial Crisis Resolution Mecha- and Happiness.” Policy Research Working Paper 4214. nisms: Cross-Country Experience.” Policy Research Work- Cerdan-Infantes, Pedro, and Christel Vermeersch. 2007. “More ing Paper 3379. Time Is Better: An Evaluation of the Full Time School Pro- Camara, Modibo K., and Fernando Montes-Negret. 2006. “De- gram in Uruguay.” Policy Research Working Paper 4167. posit Insurance and Banking Reform in Russia.” Policy Re- Cerutti, Eugenio, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Maria Soledad search Working Paper 4056. Martinez Peria. 2005. “How Banks Go Abroad: Branches or Campanaro, Alessandra, and Dimitri Vittas. 2004. “Greco-Roman Subsidiaries?” Policy Research Working Paper 3753. Lessons for Public Debt Management and Debt Market De- Chang, Roberto, Linda Kaltani, and Norman Loayza. 2005. velopment.” Policy Research Working Paper 3414. “Openness Can Be Good for Growth: The Role of Policy Canning, Patrick, and Zhi Wang. 2004. “A Flexible Model- Complementarities.” Policy Research Working Paper 3763. ing Framework to Estimate Interregional Trade Patterns Chaudhuri, Shubham, and Martin Ravallion. 2006. “Partially and Input-Output Accounts.” Policy Research Working Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth in China and India.” Paper 3359. Policy Research Working Paper 4069. Canton, Erik, and Andreas Blom. 2004. “Can Student Loans Im- Chaudhury, Nazmul, and Dilip Parajuli. 2006. “Conditional Cash prove Accessibility to Higher Education and Student Perfor- Transfers and Female Schooling: The Impact of the Female mance? An Impact Study of the Case of SOFES, Mexico.” School Stipend Program on Public School Enrollments in Policy Research Working Paper 3425. Punjab, Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 4102. Caprio, Gerard, and Patrick Honohan. 2004. “Can the Unsophis- Chauvin, Nicolas Depetris, and Aart Kraay. 2006. “Who Gets ticated Market Provide Discipline?” Policy Research Work- Debt Relief?” Policy Research Working Paper 4000. ing Paper 3364. Chellaraj, Gnanaraj, Keith E. Maskus, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2005. Cardoso, Ana Rute, and Dorte Verner. 2007. “School Drop-Out “The Contribution of Skilled Immigration and Internation- and Push-Out Factors in Brazil: The Role of Early Parent- al Graduate Students to U.S. Innovation.” Policy Research hood, Child Labor, and Poverty.” Policy Research Working Working Paper 3588. Paper 4178. Chen, Derek H.C. 2004. “Population Age Structure and the Carraro, Carlo, Carmen Marchiori, and Alessandra Sgobbi. 2005. Budget Deficit.” Policy Research Working Paper 3435. “Advances in Negotiation Theory: Bargaining, Coalitions, Chen, Derek H.C. , and Carl J. Dahlman. 2004. “Knowledge and and Fairness.” Policy Research Working Paper 3642. Development: A Cross-Section Approach.” Policy Research _____. 2005. “Applications of Negotiation Theory to Water Is- Working Paper 3366. sues.” Policy Research Working Paper 3641. Chen, Derek H.C., and Kishore Gawande. 2007. “Underlying Carvalho, Alexandre, Somik V. Lall, and Christopher Timmins. Dimensions of Knowledge Assessment: Factor Analysis of 2006. “Regional Subsidies and Industrial Prospects of Lag- the Knowledge Assessment Methodology Data.” Policy Re- ging Regions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3843. search Working Paper 4216. Casacuberta, Carlos, and Nestor Gandelman. 2006. “Protec- Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2004. “Regional- tion, Openness, and Factor Adjustment: Evidence from the ism in Standards - Good or Bad for Trade?” Policy Research Manufacturing Sector in Uruguay.” Policy Research Working Working Paper 3458. Paper 3891. Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang, Tsunehiro Otsuki, and John S. Wilson. Caskey, John P., Clemente Ruiz Duran, and Tova Maria Solo. 2006. “Do Standards Matter for Export Success?” Policy Re- 2006. “The Urban Unbanked in Mexico and the United search Working Paper 3809. States.” Policy Research Working Paper 3835. Chen, Shaohua, Ren Mu, and Martin Ravallion. 2006. “Are There Castro, Lucio, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Daniel Saslavsky. 2007. Lasting Impacts of Aid to Poor Areas? Evidence from Rural “The Impact of Trade with China and India on Argentina’s China.” Policy Research Working Paper 4084. Manufacturing Employment.” Policy Research Working Pa- Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion. 2007. “Absolute Poverty per 4153. Measures for the Developing World, 1981-2004.” Policy Re- Catin, Maurice, Xubei Luo, and Christophe Van Huffel. 2005. search Working Paper 4211.

235 Chen, Shaohua, Martin Ravallion, and Youjuan Wang. 2006. “Di Banking Sector Competition, and Economic Growth.” Policy Bao: A Guaranteed Minimum Income in Urban China?” Pol- Research Working Paper 3481. icy Research Working Paper 3805. Claessens, Stijn, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2007. “International Chen, Siyan, Norman V. Loayza, and Marta Reynal-Querol. Financial Integration through Equity Markets: Which Firms 2007. “The Aftermath of Civil War.” Policy Research Work- from Which Countries Go Global?” Policy Research Work- ing Paper 4190. ing Paper 4146. Chiquier, Loic, Olivier Hassler, and Michael Lea. 2004. “Mort- Claessens, Stijn, and Neeltje Van Horen. 2007. “Location Deci- gage Securities in Emerging Markets.” Policy Research sions of Foreign Banks and Competitive Advantage.” Policy Working Paper 3370. Research Working Paper 4113. Chisari, Omar O., and Ioannis N. Kessides. 2007. “The Pricing Clarke, George R.G. 2005. “Beyond Tariffs and Quotas: Why Dynamics of Utilities with Underdeveloped Networks.” Don’t African Manufacturers Export More?” Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4198. Working Paper 3617. Chomitz, Kenneth M., Piet Buys, and Timothy S. Thomas. 2005. _____. 2005. “Do Government Policies that Promote Competi- “Quantifying the Rural-Urban Gradient in Latin America tion Encourage or Discourage New Product and Process De- and the Caribbean.” Policy Research Working Paper 3634. velopment in Low and Middle-Income Countries?” Policy Chomitz, Kenneth M., Daniel da Mata, Alexandre Ywata de Research Working Paper 3471. Carvalho, and Joao Carlos Magalhaes. 2005. “Spatial Dynam- Clarke, George R.G., Katrina Kosec, and Scott Wallsten. 2004. ics of Labor Markets in Brazil.” Policy Research Working “Has Private Participation in Water and Sewerage Improved Paper 3752. Coverage? Empirical Evidence from Latin America.” Policy Chomitz, Kenneth M., Timothy S. Thomas, and Brandao Anto- Research Working Paper 3445. nio Salazar. 2004. “Creating Markets for Habitat Conserva- Cororaton, Caesar B., John Cockburn, and Erwin Corong. 2005. tion When Habitats Are Heterogeneous.” Policy Research “Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty in the Philip- Working Paper 3429. pines: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis.” Policy Chomitz, Kenneth M., and Sheila Wertz-Kanounnikoff. 2005. Research Working Paper 3738. “Measuring the Initial Impacts on Deforestation of Mato Correa, Paulo, Mariam Dayoub, and Manuela Francisco. 2007. Grosso’s Program for Environmental Control.” Policy Re- “Identifying Supply-Side Constraints to Export Perfor- search Working Paper 3762. mance in Ecuador: An Exercise with Investment Climate Chor-ching, Goh, and Beata S. Javorcik. 2005. “Trade Protection Survey Data.” Policy Research Working Paper 4179. and Industry Wage Structure in Poland.” Policy Research Coulibaly, Souleymane. 2007. “Evaluating the Trade Effect of Working Paper 3552. Developing Regional Trade Agreements: A Semi-Parametric Christiaensen, Luc, Lionel Demery, and Jesper Kuhl. 2006. Approach.” Policy Research Working Paper 4220. “The Role of Agriculture in Poverty Reduction: An Empiri- Coviello, Decio, and Roumeen Islam. 2006. “Does Aid Help cal Perspective.” Policy Research Working Paper 4013. Improve Economic Institutions?” Policy Research Working Claessens, Constantijn A., Daniela Klingebiel, and Luc Laeven. Paper 3990. 2004. “Resolving Systemic Financial Crisis: Policies and In- Cubbin, John, and John Stern. 2005. “Regulatory Effectiveness stitutions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3377. and the Empirical Impact of Variations in Regulatory Gover- Claessens, Stijn. 2005. “Access to Financial Services: A Review nance - Electricity Industry Capacity and Efficiency in De- of the Issues and Public Policy Objectives.” Policy Research veloping Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3535. Working Paper 3589. Cull, Robert, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Jonathan Morduch. _____. 2005. “Taking Stock of Risk Management Techniques for 2006. “Financial Performance and Outreach: A Global Sovereigns.” Policy Research Working Paper 3570. Analysis of Leading Microbanks.” Policy Research Working _____. 2006. “Competitive Implications of Cross-Border Bank- Paper 3827. ing.” Policy Research Working Paper 3854. Cull, Robert, and Laurie Effron. 2005. “World Bank Lending _____. 2006. “Current Challenges in Financial Regulation.” Pol- and Financial Sector Development.” Policy Research Work- icy Research Working Paper 4103. ing Paper 3656. Claessens, Stijn, and Erik Feijen. 2006. “Finance and Hunger: Cull, Robert, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2007. “Foreign Empirical Evidence of the Agricultural Productivity Chan- Bank Participation and Crises in Developing Countries.” nel.” Policy Research Working Paper 4080. Policy Research Working Paper 4128. Claessens, Stijn, and Luc Laeven. 2005. “Financial Dependence, Cull, Robert, Lixin Colin Xu, and Zhu Tian. 2007. “Formal Fi-

236 nance and Trade Credit during China’s Transition.” Policy Dasgupta, Basab, and Somik V. Lall. 2006. “Assessing Benefits of Research Working Paper 4204. Slum Upgrading Programs in Second-Best Settings.” Policy Da Mata, Daniel, Uwe Deichmann, J. Vernon Henderson, Somik Research Working Paper 3993. V. Lall, and Hyoung Gun Wang. 2005. “Determinants of City Dasgupta, Susmita, Mainul Huq, M. Khaliquzzaman, Kiran Pan- Growth in Brazil.” Policy Research Working Paper 3723. dey, and David Wheeler. 2004. “Indoor Air Quality for Poor ______. 2005. “Examining the Growth Patterns of Brazilian Cit- Families: New Evidence from Bangladesh.” Policy Research ies.” Policy Research Working Paper 3724. Working Paper 3393. da Silva, Luis Correia, Antonio Estache, and Sakari Jarvela. _____. 2004. “Who Suffers from Indoor Air Pollution? Evidence 2004. “Is Debt Replacing Equity in Regulated Privatized from Bangladesh.” Policy Research Working Paper 3428. Infrastructure in Developing Countries?” Policy Research Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Working Paper 3374. Wheeler, and Yan Jianping. 2007. “The Impact of Sea Level Dabalen, Andrew, Stefano Paternostro, and Gaelle Pierre. 2004. Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis.” “The Returns to Participation in the Non-Farm Sector in Policy Research Working Paper 4136. Rural Rwanda.” Policy Research Working Paper 3462. Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, and Mainul Huq. 2005. Dafflon, Bernard, and Krisztina Toth. 2005. “Fiscal Federalism “Health Effects and Pesticide Perception as Determinants in Switzerland: Relevant Issues for Transition Economies in of Pesticide Use: Evidence from Bangladesh.” Policy Re- Central and Eastern Europe.” Policy Research Working Pa- search Working Paper 3776. per 3655. Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, and Nlandu Mamingi. 2005. Dailami, Mansoor, Paul R. Masson, and Jean Jose Padou. 2005. “Pesticide Traders’ Perception of Health Risks: Evidence “Global Monetary Conditions Versus Country-Specific from Bangladesh.” Policy Research Working Paper 3777. Factors in the Determination of Emerging Market Debt Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, and David Wheeler. 2004. Spreads.” Policy Research Working Paper 3626. “Is Environmentally-Friendly Agriculture Less Profitable Das Gupta, Monica. 2005. “Public Health in India: An Over- for Farmers? Evidence on Integrated Pest Management in view.” Policy Research Working Paper 3787. Bangladesh.” Policy Research Working Paper 3417. Das Gupta, Monica, Michael Lokshin, Michele Gragnolati, and Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, David Wheeler, Thi Lam Oleksiy Ivaschenko. 2005. “Improving Child Nutrition Out- Nhan, and Xuyen Khuc. 2005. “Pesticide Poisoning of Farm comes in India: Can the Integrated Child Development Servic- Workers: Implications of Blood Test Results from Vietnam.” es Be More Effective?” Policy Research Working Paper 3647. Policy Research Working Paper 3624. Das Gupta, Monica, and Manju Rani. 2004. “India’s Public David, Antonio C. 2007. “Are Price-Based Capital Account Reg- Health System - How Well Does It Function at the National ulations Effective in Developing Countries?” Policy Re- Level?” Policy Research Working Paper 3447. search Working Paper 4175. Das, Jishnu, Stefan Dercon, James Habyarimana, and Pramila _____. 2007. “Controls on Capital Inflows and External Shocks.” Krishnan. 2005. “Teacher Shocks and Student Learning: Ev- Policy Research Working Paper 4176. idence from Zambia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3602. _____. 2007. “HIV/AIDS and Social Capital in a Cross-Section Das, Jishnu, and Jeffrey Hammer. 2005. “Money for Nothing: of Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4263. The Dire Straits of Medical Practice in Delhi, India.” Policy Davies, Victor A.B. 2007. “Capital Flight and War.” Policy Re- Research Working Paper 3669. search Working Paper 4210. _____. “Which Doctor? Combining Vignettes and Item Re- D’Costa, Anthony P. 2006. “Exports, University-Industry Linkages, sponse to Measure Clinical Competence.” Policy Research and Innovation Challenges in Bangalore, India.” Policy Research Working Paper 3301. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 3887. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Das, Jishnu, Priyanka Pandey, and Tristan Zajonc. 2006. “Learn- De Hoyos, Rafael E. 2007. “Accounting for Mexican Income ing Levels and Gaps in Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Inequality during the 1990s.” Policy Research Working Paper 4067. Paper 4224. Das, Jishnu, and Thomas Pave Sohnesen. 2006. “Patient Sat- De la Cruz, Javier, and Constantinos Stephanou. 2006. “Finan- isfaction, Doctor Effort, and Interview Location: Evidence cial System Structure in Colombia: A Proposal for a Reform from Paraguay.” Policy Research Working Paper 4086. Agenda.” Policy Research Working Paper 4006. Das, Maitreyi Bordia, and Philip O’Keefe. 2007. “Enterprises, de la Plaza, Luis, and Sophie Sirtaine. 2005. “An Analysis of the Workers, and Skills in Urban Timor-Leste.” Policy Research 2002 Uruguayan Banking Crisis.” Policy Research Working Working Paper 4177. Paper 3780.

237 de la Torre, Augusto, Juan Carlos Gozzi, and Sergio L. Schmukler. Dean, Judith M., and John Wainio. 2006. “Quantifying the Value 2006. “Financial Development in Latin America: Big Emerg- of U.S. Tariff Preferences for Developing Countries.” Policy ing Issues, Limited Policy Answers.” Policy Research Work- Research Working Paper 3977. ing Paper 3963. Deichmann, Uwe, Kai Kaiser, Somik V Lall, and Zmarak Shal- ______. 2007. “Capital Market Development: Whither Latin izi. 2005. “Agglomeration, Transport, and Regional Develop- America?” Policy Research Working Paper 4156. ment in Indonesia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3477. ______. 2007. “Stock Market Development under Globalization: Deininger, Klaus, Daniel Ayalew Ali, Stein Holden, and Jaap Whither the Gains from Reforms?” Policy Research Working Zevenbergen. 2007. “Rural Land Certification in Ethiopia: Paper 4184. Process, Initial Impact, and Implications for Other African de la Torre, Luz Elena Reyes, and Jorge G. Gonzalez. 2005. “An- Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4218. tidumping and Safeguard Measures in the Political Econo- Deininger, Klaus, Daniel Ayalew, and Takashi Yamano. 2006. “Le- my of Liberalization: The Mexican Case.” Policy Research gal Knowledge and Economic Development: The Case of Land Working Paper 3684. Rights in Uganda.” Policy Research Working Paper 3868. de Luna Martinez, Jose. 2005. “Workers’ Remittances to Devel- Deininger, Klaus, Songqing Jin, and Hari K. Nagarajan. 2007. oping Countries: A Survey with Central Banks on Selected “Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Rural Land Rental Re- Public Policy Issues.” Policy Research Working Paper 3638. strictions: Evidence from India.” Policy Research Working _____. 2006. “Access to Financial Services in Zambia.” Policy Paper 4324. Research Working Paper 4061. Dell’Aglio, Debora, Wendy Cunningham, Silvia Koller, Vicente de Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. Cassepp Borges, and Joana Severo Leon. 2007. “Youth Well- 2007. “Measuring Microenterprise Profits: Don’t Ask How the Being in Brazil: An Index for Cross-Regional Comparisons.” Sausage Is Made.” Policy Research Working Paper 4229. Policy Research Working Paper 4189. _____. 2007. “Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from Demirguc-Kunt, Asli. 2006. “Finance and Economic Develop- a Field Experiment.” Policy Research Working Paper 4230. ment: Policy Choices for Developing Countries.” Policy Re- de Mello, Luiz. 2006. “Fiscal Responsibility Legislation and Fis- search Working Paper 3955. cal Adjustment: The Case of Brazilian Local Governments.” Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Enrica Detragiache. 2005. “Cross- Policy Research Working Paper 3812. Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A de Soysa, Indra, and Eric Neumayer. 2007. “Disarming Fears of Survey.” Policy Research Working Paper 3719. Diversity: Ethnic Heterogeneity and State Militarization, Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Enrica Detragiache, and Thierry Tres- 1988-2002.” Policy Research Working Paper 4221. sel. 2006. “Banking on the Principles: Compliance with Ba- de Walque, Damien. 2004. “Education, Information, and Smoking sel Core Principles and Bank Soundness.” Policy Research Decisions: Evidence from Smoking Histories, 1940-2000.” Working Paper 3954. Policy Research Working Paper 3362. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Edward J. Kane, and Luc Laeven. 2006. _____. 2004. “The Long-Term Legacy of the Khmer Rouge Pe- “Deposit Insurance Design and Implementation: Policy riod in Cambodia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3446. Lessons from Research and Practice.” Policy Research Work- _____. 2005. “Parental Education and Children’s Schooling ing Paper 3969. Outcomes: Is the Effect Nature, Nurture, or Both? Evidence _____. 2006. “Determinants of Deposit-Insurance Adoption and from Recomposed Families in Rwanda.” Policy Research Design.” Policy Research Working Paper 3849. Working Paper 3483. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Baybars Karacaovali, and Luc Laeven. _____. 2006. “Discordant Couples: HIV Infection among Cou- 2005. “Deposit Insurance around the World: A Comprehen- ples in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanza- sive Database.” Policy Research Working Paper 3628. nia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3956. Demombynes, Gabriel, Chris Elbers, Jean O. Lanjouw, and Peter _____. 2006. “Who Gets AIDS and How? The Determinants of Lanjouw. 2007. “How Good a Map? Putting Small Area Esti- HIV Infection and Sexual Behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cam- mation to the Test.” Policy Research Working Paper 4155. eroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania.” Policy Research Work- Demombynes, Gabriel, and Johannes G. Hoogeveen. 2004. ing Paper 3844. “Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tan- Dean, Judith M., Mary E. Lovely, and Hua Wang. 2005. “Are zania, 1992–2002.” Policy Research Working Paper 3432. Foreign Investors Attracted to Weak Environmental Regu- Dennis, Allen. 2006. “The Impact of Regional Trade Agree- lations? Evaluating the Evidence from China.” Policy Re- ments and Trade Facilitation in the Middle East and North search Working Paper 3505. Africa Region.” Policy Research Working Paper 3837.

238 _____. 2006. “Trade Liberalization, Factor Market Flexibility, Dollar, David. 2007. “Asian Century or Multi-Polar Century?” and Growth: The Case of Morocco and Tunisia.” Policy Re- Policy Research Working Paper 4174. search Working Paper 3857. _____. 2007. “Poverty, Inequality, and Social Disparities dur- Dercon, Stefan, and Luc Christiaensen. 2007. “Consumption ing China’s Economic Reform.” Policy Research Working Risk, Technology Adoption, and Poverty Traps: Evidence Paper 4253. from Ethiopia.” Policy Research Working Paper 4257. Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay. 2005. “Neither a Borrower Nor a Dhillon, Amrita, and Jamele Rigolini. 2006. “Development and Lender: Does China’s Zero Net Foreign Asset Position Make the Interaction of Enforcement Institutions.” Policy Re- Economic Sense?” Policy Research Working Paper 3801. search Working Paper 4090. Dollar, David, and Victoria Levin. 2005. “Sowing and Reaping: Di Gropello, Emmanuela. 2004. “Education Decentralization Institutional Quality and Project Outcomes in Developing and Accountability Relationships in Latin America.” Policy Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3524. Research Working Paper 3453. Domac, Ilker, and Eray M. Yucel. 2004. “What Triggers Inflation Dinar, Ariel, Stefano Farolfi, Fioravante Patrone, and Kate in Emerging Market Economics?” Policy Research Working Rowntree. 2006. “Water Allocation Strategies for the Kat Ba- Paper 3376. sin in South Africa: Comparing Negotiation Tools and Game Domeland, Dorte. 2007. “Trade and Human Capital Accumu- Theory Models.” Policy Research Working Paper 4083. lation: Evidence from U.S. Immigrants.” Policy Research Dinar, Ariel, Karin Kemper, William Blomquist, Michele Diez, Working Paper 4144. Gisele Sine, and William Fru. 2005. “Decentralization of Doner, Richard F., Gregory W. Noble, and John Ravenhill. 2006. River Basin Management: A Global Analysis.” Policy Re- “Industrial Competitiveness of the Auto Parts Industries search Working Paper 3637. in Four Large Asian Countries: The Role of Government Diop, Ndiame, Paul Brenton, and Yakup Asarkaya. 2005. “Trade Policy in a Challenging International Environment.” Policy Costs, Export Development, and Poverty in Rwanda.” Poli- Research Working Paper 4106. cy Research Working Paper 3784. Douglas, Ellen M., Kate Sebastian, Charles J. Vorosmarty, Stan- Dixit, Avinash. 2006. “Evaluating Recipes for Development ley Wood, and Kenneth M. Chomitz. 2005. “The Role of Success.” Policy Research Working Paper 3859. Tropical Forests in Supporting Biodiversity and Hydrologi- Djankov, Simeon, Caroline Freund, and Cong S. Pham. 2006. cal Integrity: A Synoptic Overview.” Policy Research Work- “Trading on Time.” Policy Research Working Paper 3909. ing Paper 3635. Djankov, Simeon, and Marta Reynal-Querol. 2007. “The Causes Duebel, Hans-Joachim, W. Jan Brzeski, and Ellen Hamilton. of Civil War.” Policy Research Working Paper 4254. 2006. “Rental Choice and Housing Policy Realignment in Do, Quy-Toan, and Lakshmi Iyer. 2007. “Poverty, Social Divi- Transition: Post-Privatization Challenges in the Europe and sions, and Conflict in Nepal.” Policy Research Working Pa- Central Asia Region.” Policy Research Working Paper 3884. per 4228. Duflo, Esther, Pascaline Dupas, Michael Kremer, and Samuel Do, Quy-Toan, Sriya Iyer, and Shareen Joshi. 2006. “The Eco- Sinei. 2006. “Education and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Evi- nomics of Consanguineous Marriages.” Policy Research dence from A Randomized Evaluation in Western Kenya.” Working Paper 4085. Policy Research Working Paper 4024. Do, Quy-Toan, and Andrei A. Levchenko. 2006. “Comparative Dutz, Mark. 2005. “Road Freight Logistics, Competition, and Advantage, Demand for External Finance, and Financial Innovation: Downstream Benefits and Policy Implications.” Development.” Policy Research Working Paper 3889. Policy Research Working Paper 3768. _____. 2006. “Trade, Inequality, and the Political Economy of Easterly, William, Timothy Irwin, and Luis Serven. 2007. “Walk- Institutions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3836. ing Up the Down Escalator: Public Investment and Fiscal Do, Quy-Toan, and Tung Duc Phung. 2006. “Superstition, Fam- Stability.” Policy Research Working Paper 4158. ily Planning, and Human Development.” Policy Research Ebinger, Jane O. 2006. “Measuring Financial Performance in Working Paper 4001. Infrastructure: An Application to Europe and Central Asia.” Docquier, Frederic, and Abdeslam Marfouk. 2004. “Measuring Policy Research Working Paper 3992. the International Mobility of Skilled Workers (1990–2000): Eggleston, Karen, Li Ling, Meng Qingyue, Magnus Linde- Release 1.0.” Policy Research Working Paper 3381. low, and Adam Wagstaff. 2006. “Health Service Delivery Docquier, Frederic, and Hillel Rapoport. 2004. “Skilled Migra- in China: A Literature Review.” Policy Research Working tion: The Perspective of Developing Countries.” Policy Re- Paper 3978. search Working Paper 3382. Eichengreen, Barry, and Ashoka Mody. 2006. “Would Collective

239 Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs? An Update and Ad- Essama-Nssah, Bessama. 2007. “A Poverty-Focused Evaluation ditional Results. “ Policy Research Working Paper 2373. of Commodity Tax Options.” Policy Research Working Pa- Eifert, Benn, and Alan Gelb. 2005. “Improving the Dynamics per 4245. of Aid: Toward More Predictable Budget Support.” Policy Essama-Nssah, Boniface. 2004. “A Unified Framework for Pro- Research Working Paper 3732. Poor Growth Analysis.” Policy Research Working Paper Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., Linda Kaltani, and Klaus Schmidt-Heb- 3397. bel. 2007. “Post-Conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Adjust- _____. 2005. “Simulating the Poverty Impact of Macroeconomic ment, and Catch-up Growth.” Policy Research Working Pa- Shocks and Policies.” Policy Research Working Paper 3788. per 4187. _____. 2006. “Propensity Score Matching and Policy Impact Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Taye Mengistae, and Albert Zeufack. 2006. Analysis - A Demonstration in Eviews.” Policy Research “Market Access, Supplier Access, and Africa’s Manufactured Working Paper 3877. Exports: An Analysis of the Role of Geography and Institu- Estache, Antonio. 2004. “Emerging Infrastructure Policy Issues tions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3942. in Developing Countries - A Survey of the Recent Economic Elbers, Chris, Tomoki Fujii, Peter Lanjouw, Berk Ozler, and Literature.” Policy Research Working Paper 3442. Wesley Yin. 2004. “Poverty Alleviation through Geographic _____. 2005. “PPI Partnerships Versus PPI Divorces in Develop- Targeting: How Much Does Disaggregation Help?” Policy ing Countries (or Are We Switching from PPPI to PPDI?).” Research Working Paper 3419. Policy Research Working Paper 3470. Elbers, Chris, Peter Lanjouw, Johan A. Mistiaen, and Berk Ozler. Estache, Antonio, and Ana Goicoechea. 2005. “How Widespread 2005. “Re-Interpreting Sub-Group Inequality Decomposi- Were Private Investment and Regulatory Reform in In- tions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3687. frastructure Utilities during The 1990s?” Policy Research Emini, Christian Arnault, John Cockburn, and Bernard De- Working Paper 3595. caluwe. 2005. “The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in _____. 2005. “A ‘Research’ Database on Infrastructure Economic Cameroon: The Role of Tax Policy.” Policy Research Work- Performance.” Policy Research Working Paper 3643. ing Paper 3746. Estache, Antonio, Ana Goicoechea, and Marco Manacorda. 2006. Ersado, Lire. 2006. “Azerbaijan’s Household Survey Data: Ex- “Telecommunications Performance, Reforms, and Gover- plaining Why Inequality Is So Low.” Policy Research Work- nance.” Policy Research Working Paper 3822. ing Paper 4009. Estache, Antonio, Ana Goicoechea, and Lourdes Trujillo. 2006. _____. 2006. “Income Diversification in Zimbabwe: Welfare “Utilities Reforms and Corruption in Developing Coun- Implications from Urban and Rural Areas.” Policy Research tries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4081. Working Paper 3964. Estache, Antonio, Marianela Gonzalez, and Lourdes Trujillo. _____. 2006. “Rural Vulnerability in Serbia.” Policy Research 2007. “Government Expenditures on Education, Health, Working Paper 4010. and Infrastructure: A Naive Look at Levels, Outcomes, and Eschenbach, Felix, and Bernard Hoekman. 2005. “Services Pol- Efficiency.” Policy Research Working Paper 4219. icy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies, Estache, Antonio, Jean-Jacques Laffont, and Zhang Xinzhu. 1990-2004.” Policy Research Working Paper 3663. 2004. “Universal Service Obligations in Developing Coun- _____. 2006. “Services Policies in Transition Economies: On tries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3421. the European Union and the World Trade Organization Estache, Antonio, Sergio Perelman, and Lourdes Trujillo. 2005. as Commitment Mechanisms.” Policy Research Working “Infrastructure Performance and Reform in Developing and Paper 3951. Transition Economies: Evidence from a Survey of Produc- Escribano, Alvaro, and J. Luis Guasch. 2005. “Assessing the Im- tivity Measures.” Policy Research Working Paper 3514. pact of the Investment Climate on Productivity Using Firm- Estache, Antonio, and Maria Elena Pinglo. 2004. “Are Returns to Level Data: Methodology and the Cases of Guatemala, Hon- Private Infrastructure in Developing Countries Consistent duras, and Nicaragua.” Policy Research Working Paper 3621. with Risks Since the Asian Crisis?” Policy Research Working Essama-Nssah, B. 2005. “The Poverty and Distributional Impact Paper 3373. of Macroeconomic Shocks and Policies: A Review of Model- Estache, Antonio, and Martin Rossi. 2004. “Have Consumers ing Approaches.” Policy Research Working Paper 3682. Benefited from the Reforms in the Electricity Distribu- Essama-Nssah B., and PeterJ. Lambert. 2006. “Measuring the tion Sector in Latin America?” Policy Research Working Pro-Poorness of Income Growth within an Elasticity Frame- Paper 3420. work.” Policy Research Working Paper 4035. Estache, Antonio, and Tomas Serebrisky. 2004. “Where Do We

240 Stand on Transport Infrastructure Deregulation and Public- ety and Country Productivity.” Policy Research Working Private Partnership?” Policy Research Working Paper 3356. Paper 3412. Evenett, Simon J., and Bernard M. Hoekman. 2005. “Interna- Feijen, Erik. 2005. “Do Incumbents Manipulate Access to Fi- tional Cooperation and the Reform of Public Procurement nance during Banking Crises?” Policy Research Working Policies.” Policy Research Working Paper 3720. Paper 3660. Facchini, Giovanni, Marcelo Olarreaga, Peri Silva, and Gerald Fernandes, Ana M. 2005. “Trade Policy, Trade Volume, and Willmann. 2007. “Substitutability and Protectionism: Latin Plant-Level Productivity in Colombian Manufacturing In- America’s Trade Policy and Imports from China and India.” dustries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3064. Policy Research Working Paper 4188. _____. 2006. “Firm Productivity in Bangladesh Manufacturing Fajnzylber, Pablo, and Ana Margarida Fernandes. 2004. “Inter- Industries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3988. national Economic Activities and the Demand for Skilled Fernandes, Ana M., and Alberto E. Isgut. 2005. “Learning-by- Labor: Evidence from Brazil and China.” Policy Research Doing, Learning-by-Exporting, and Productivity: Evidence Working Paper 3426. from Colombia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3544. Fajnzylber, Pablo, William F. Maloney, and Gabriel V. Montes Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, and Julie A. Li- Rojas. 2006. “Releasing Constraints to Growth or Pushing tchfield. 2006. “The Rise and Fall of Brazilian Inequality, on a String? The Impact of Credit, Training, Business As- 1981-2004.” Policy Research Working Paper 3867. sociations, and Taxes on the Performance of Mexican Micro- Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, and Matthew Firms.” Policy Research Working Paper 3807. Wai-Poi. 2007. “Trade Liberalization, Employment Flows, Fan, Joseph P. H., Randall Morck, Colin Xu Lixin, and Bernard and Wage Inequality in Brazil.” Policy Research Working Yeung. 2007. “Does ‘Good Government’ Draw Foreign Cap- Paper 4108. ital? Explaining China’s Exceptional Foreign Direct Invest- Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Michael Walton. 2006. “Inequal- ment Inflow.” Policy Research Working Paper 4206. ity of Opportunity and Economic Development.” Policy Re- Fares, Jean, Claudio E. Montenegro, and Peter F. Orazem. 2006. search Working Paper 3816. “How Are Youth Faring in the Labor Market? Evidence from Fiess, Norbert. 2005. “Business Cycle Synchronization and Re- around the World.” Policy Research Working Paper 4071. gional Integration: A Case Study for Central America.” Poli- Fares, Jean, and Dhushyanth Raju. 2007. “Child Labor across cy Research Working Paper 3584. the Developing World: Patterns and Correlations.” Policy Fiess, Norbert, and Rashmi Shankar. 2005. “Regime-Switching Research Working Paper 4119. in Exchange Rate Policy and Balance Sheet Effects.” Policy Fares, Jean, and Erwin R. Tiongson. 2007. “Youth Unemploy- Research Working Paper 3653. ment, Labor Market Transitions, and Scarring: Evidence Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira, and Mark Horridge. from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2001-04.” Policy Research 2005. “The Doha Round, Poverty, and Regional Inequality Working Paper 4183. in Brazil.” Policy Research Working Paper 3701. Fargues, Philippe. 2006. “The Demographic Benefit of Inter- Filmer, Deon. 2005. “Disability, Poverty, and Schooling in De- national Migration: Hypothesis and Application to the Mid- veloping Countries: Results from 11 Household Surveys.” dle Eastern and North African Contexts.” Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 3794. Working Paper 4050. Filmer, Deon, and Norbert Schady. 2006. “Getting Girls into Fedderke, Johannes W., Bogetic, and Zeljko. 2006. “Infrastruc- School: Evidence from a Scholarship Program in Cambodia.” ture and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Pro- Policy Research Working Paper 3910. ductivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures.” Policy Finger, J. Michael, and John S. Wilson. 2006. “Implementing A Research Working Paper 3989. WTO Agreement on Trade Facilitation: What Makes Sense?” Feder, Gershon, and Sara Savastano. 2006. “The Role of Opin- Policy Research Working Paper 3971. ion Leaders in the Diffusion of New Knowledge: The Case Fink, Carsten, and Deunden Nikomborirak. 2007. “Rules of Ori- of Integrated Pest Management.” Policy Research Working gin in Services: A Case Study of Five ASEAN Countries.” Paper 3916. Policy Research Working Paper 4130. Feenstra, Robert C., Alan Heston, Marcel P. Timmer, and Hai- Flabbi, Luca, Stefano Paternostro, and Erwin R. Tiongson. 2007. yan Deng. 2007. “Estimating Real Production and Expen- “Returns to Education in the Economic Transition: A Sys- ditures across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn tematic Assessment Using Comparable Data.” Policy Re- World Tables.” Policy Research Working Paper 4166. search Working Paper 4225. Feenstra, Robert, and Hiau Looi Kee. 2004. “Export Vari- Fleischer, Aliza, Ivgenia Lichtman, and Robert Mendelsohn.

241 2007. “Climate Change, Irrigation, and Israeli Agriculture: trition Indicators and Its Application in Cambodia.” Policy Will Warming Be Harmful?” Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 3662. Paper 4135. Fujita, Kumiko, and Richard Child Hill. 2005. “Innovative To- Flyvbjerg, Bent . 2005. “Policy and Planning for Large Infra- kyo.” Policy Research Working Paper 3507. structure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures.” Policy Re- Galasso, Emanuela, and Jeffrey Yau. 2006. “Learning through search Working Paper 3781. Monitoring: Lessons from a Large-Scale Nutrition Program Fofack, Hippolyte L. 2005. “Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Sa- in Madagascar.” Policy Research Working Paper 4058. haran Africa: Causal Analysis and Macroeconomic Implica- Galiani, Sebastián, Martin Rossi, and Ernesto Schargrodsky. tions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3769. 2006. “Conscription and Crime.” Policy Research Working Foster, Vivien. 2004. “Toward a Social Policy for Argentina’s In- Paper 4037. frastructure Sectors - Evaluating the Past and Exploring the Galiano, Sebastian, and Guido G. Porto. 2006. “Trends in Tariff Future.” Policy Research Working Paper 3422. Reforms and Trends in Wage Inequality.” Policy Research Foster, Vivien, and Tito Yepes. 2006. “Is Cost Recovery a Fea- Working Paper 3905. sible Objective for Water and Electricity? The Latin Ameri- Gallardo, Joselito, Korotoumou Ouattara, Bikki Randhawa, and can Experience.” Policy Research Working Paper 3943. William F. Steel. 2005. “Comparative Review of Microfi- Fox, William F., and Tami Gurley. 2006. “Will Consolidation Im- nance Regulatory Framework Issues in Benin, Ghana, and prove Sub-National Governments?” Policy Research Work- Tanzania.” Policy Research Working Paper 3585. ing Paper 3913. Gan, Li, Lixin Colin Xu, and Yao Yang. 2007. “Local Elections Francois, Joseph, Bernard Hoekman, and Miriam Manchin. 2005. and Consumption Insurance: Evidence from Chinese Vil- “Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization.” lages.” Policy Research Working Paper 4205. Policy Research Working Paper 3730. Garcia-Prado, Ariadna. 2005. “Sweetening the Carrot: Motivat- Francois, Joseph, and Miriam Manchin. 2007. “Institutions, In- ing Public Physicians for Better Performance.” Policy Re- frastructure, and Trade.” Policy Research Working Paper search Working Paper 3772. 4152. Gasmi, Farid, Paul Noumba Um, and Laura Recuero Virto. 2006. Francois, Joseph F., and Hugo Rojas-Romagosa. 2005. “The Con- “Political Accountability and Regulatory Performance in In- struction and Interpretation of Combined Cross-Section and frastructure Industries: An Empirical Analysis.” Policy Re- Time-Series Inequality Datasets.” Policy Research Working search Working Paper 4101. Paper 3748. Gatti, Roberta, and Inessa Love. 2006. “Does Access to Credit _____. 2005. “Equity, Welfare, and the Setting of Trade Policy Improve Productivity? Evidence from Bulgarian Firms.” in General Equilibrium.” Policy Research Working Paper Policy Research Working Paper 3921. 3731. Gawande, Kishore. 2005. “The Structure of Lobbying and François, Joseph, and Ian Wooton. 2007. “Market Structure and Protection in U.S. Agriculture.” Policy Research Working Market Access.” Policy Research Working Paper 4151. Paper 3722. Fredriksson, Per G., Muthukumara Mani, and Jim R. Wollscheid. Gawande, Kishore, and Bernard Hoekman. 2006. “Lobbying and 2006. “Environmental Federalism: A Panacea or Pandora’s Agricultural Trade Policy in the United States.” Policy Re- Box for Developing Countries?” Policy Research Working search Working Paper 3819. Paper 3847. Gertler, Paul, Sebastian Martinez, and Marta Rubio-Codina. Freinkman, Lev, and Alexander Plekhanov. 2005. “What Deter- 2006. “Investing Cash Transfers to Raise Long-Term Living mines the Extent of Fiscal Decentralization? The Russian Standards.” Policy Research Working Paper 3994. Paradox.” Policy Research Working Paper 3710. Gertler, Paul, Harry Patrinos, and Marta Rubio-Codina. 2006. Freund, Caroline , and Caglar Ozden. 2004. “Loss Aversion and “Empowering Parents to Improve Education: Evidence Trade Policy.” Policy Research Working Paper 3385. from Rural Mexico.” Policy Research Working Paper 3935. Freund, Caroline, and Nikola Spatafora. 2005. “Remittances: Ghesquiere, Francis, Luis Jamin, and Olivier Mahul. 2006. Transaction Costs, Determinants, and Informal Flows.” Pol- “Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction Program in Colom- icy Research Working Paper 3704. bia: A Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Analysis.” Policy Research Friedman, Felice B., and Claire Grose. 2006. “Promoting Access Working Paper 3939. to Primary Equity Markets: A Legal and Regulatory Ap- Ghosh, Swati, and Ernesto Revilla. 2007. “Enhancing The Ef- proach.” Policy Research Working Paper 3892. ficiency of Securities Markets in East Asia.” Policy Research Fujii, Tomoki. 2005. “Micro-Level Estimation of Child Malnu- Working Paper 4129.

242 Gibson, Christopher, and Michael Woolcock. 2005. “Empower- Goncalves, Marilyne Pereira, and Constantinos Stephanou. 2007. ment and Local Level Conflict Mediation in Indonesia: A “Financial Services and Trade Agreements in Latin America Comparative Analysis of Concepts, Measures, and Project and the Caribbean: An Overview.” Policy Research Working Efficacy.” Policy Research Working Paper 3713. Paper 4181. Gibson, John, and David McKenzie. 2007. “Using the Global Po- Goni, Edwin, Humberto Lopez, and Luis Serven. 2006. “Get- sitioning System in Household Surveys for Better Economics ting Real about Inequality: Evidence from Brazil, Colombia, and Better Policy.” Policy Research Working Paper 4195. Mexico, and Peru.” Policy Research Working Paper 3815. Gill, Indermit, and Brian Pinto. 2005. “Public Debt in Devel- Gonzalez, Maria Manuela, and Lourdes Trujillo. 2005. “Reforms oping Countries: Has the Market-Based Model Worked?” and Infrastructure Efficiency in Spain’s Container Ports.” Policy Research Working Paper 3674. Policy Research Working Paper 3515. Gine, Xavier. 2005. “Access to Capital in Rural Thailand: An Goodwin, Barry K., and Olivier Mahul. 2004. “Risk Modeling Estimated Model of Formal Versus Informal Credit.” Policy Concepts Relating to the Design and Rating of Agricultural Research Working Paper 3502. Insurance Contracts.” Policy Research Working Paper 3392. _____. 2005. “Cultivate or Rent Out? Land Security in Rural Goto, Junichi. 2007. “Latin Americans of Japanese Origin (Nik- Thailand.” Policy Research Working Paper 3734. keijin) Working in Japan: A Survey.” Policy Research Work- Giné, Xavier, Pamela Jakiela, Dean Karlan, and Jonathan Mor- ing Paper 4203. duch. 2006. “Microfinance Games.” Policy Research Work- Gourdon, Julien, Nicolas Maystre, and Jaime de Melo. 2006. ing Paper 3959. “Openness, Inequality, and Poverty: Endowments Matter.” Gine, Xavier, and Dean S. Karlan. 2006. “Group Versus Individ- Policy Research Working Paper 3981. ual Liability: A Field Experiment in the Philippines.” Policy Gozzi, Juan Carlos, Ross Levine, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2006. Research Working Paper 4008. “Internationalization and the Evolution of Corporate Valua- Gine, Xavier, and Stefan Klonner. 2005. “Credit Constraints as tion.” Policy Research Working Paper 3933. a Barrier to Technology Adoption by the Poor: Lessons from Grais, Wafik, and Matteo Pellegrini. 2006. “Corporate Gov- South Indian Small-Scale Fishery.” Policy Research Work- ernance and Shariah Compliance in Institutions Offer- ing Paper 3665. ing Islamic Financial Services.” Policy Research Working Gine, Xavier, and Inessa Love. 2006. “Do Reorganization Costs Paper 4054. Matter for Efficiency? Evidence from a Bankruptcy Reform _____. 2006. “Corporate Governance and Stakeholders’ Finan- in Colombia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3970. cial Interests in Institutions Offering Islamic Financial Ser- Giovagnoli, Paula Inés, Ariel Fiszbein, and Harry Anthony Patri- vices.” Policy Research Working Paper 4053. nos. 2005. “Estimating the Returns to Education in Argen- _____. 2006. “Corporate Governance in Institutions Offering tina: 1992-2002.” Policy Research Working Paper 3715. Islamic Financial Services: Issues and Options.” Policy Re- Glaesnner, Thomas G., and Zeynep Kantur. 2004. “Two Case search Working Paper 4052. Studies on Electronic Distribution of Government Securi- Grether, Jean-Marie, Nicole A. Mathys, and Jaime de Melo. ties: The U.S. Treasury Direct System and the Philippine 2006. “Unraveling the Worldwide Pollution Haven Effect.” Expanded Small Investors Program.” Policy Research Work- Policy Research Working Paper 4047. ing Paper 3372. Gross, Dominique M. 2006. “Immigration Policy and For- Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Lene Siljeholm Christiansen, and Havard eign Population in Switzerland.” Policy Research Working Hegre. 2007. “Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Paper 3853. Democracy.” Policy Research Working Paper 4242. _____. 2006. “Immigration to Switzerland - The Case of the Glinskaya, Elena, and Michael Lokshin. 2005. “Wage Differen- Former Republic of Yugoslavia.” Policy Research Working tials Between the Public and Private Sector in India.” Policy Paper 3880. Research Working Paper 3574. Guasch, J. Luis, Jean-Jacques Laffont, and Stephane Straub. Go, Delfin S., Marna Kearney, Sherman Robinson, and Karen 2005. “Infrastructure Concessions in Latin America: Gov- Thierfelder. 2005. “An Analysis of South Africa’s Value Add- ernment-Led Renegotiations.” Policy Research Working Pa- ed Tax.” Policy Research Working Paper 3671. per 3749. Goldberg, Itzhak, Branko Radulovic, and Mark Schaffer. 2005. Guermazi, Boutheina, and Isabel Neto. 2005. “Mobile License “Productivity, Ownership, and the Investment Climate: In- Renewal: What Are the Issues? What Is at Stake?” Policy ternational Lessons for Priorities in Serbia.” Policy Research Research Working Paper 3729. Working Paper 3681. Guerson, Alejandro, James Parks, and Monica Parra Torrado.

243 2007. “Export Structure and Growth: A Detailed Analysis for against Private Infrastructure Investments.” Policy Research Argentina.” Policy Research Working Paper 4237. Working Paper 3690. Guillaumont, Patrick, and Rachid Laajaj. 2006. “When Instabil- Henley, Andrew, G. Reza Arabsheibani, and Francisco G. Car- ity Increases the Effectiveness of Aid Projects.” Policy Re- neiro. 2006. “On Defining and Measuring the Informal Sec- search Working Paper 4034. tor.” Policy Research Working Paper 3866. Gurgur, Tugrul, and Anwar Shah. 2005. “Localization and Cor- Hentschel, Jesko. 2004. “Using Rapid City Surveys to Inform ruption: Panacea or Pandora’s Box?” Policy Research Work- Municipal Social Policy: An Application in Cali, Colombia.” ing Paper 3486. Policy Research Working Paper 3369. Haddad, Mona. 2007. “Trade Integration in East Asia: The Role Hernandez-Zavala, Martha, Harry Anthony Patrinos, Chris Sake- of China and Production Networks.” Policy Research Work- llariou, and Joseph Shapiro. 2006. “Quality of Schooling and ing Paper 4160. Quality of Schools for Indigenous Students in Guatemala, Haltiwanger, John, Stefano Scarpetta, and Helena Schweiger. Mexico, and Peru.” Policy Research Working Paper 3982. 2006. “Assessing Job Flows across Countries: The Role of Herrera, Santiago. 2005. “Policy Mix, Public Debt Management, Industry, Firm Size, and Regulations.” Policy Research and Fiscal Rules - Lessons from the 2002 Brazilian Crisis.” Working Paper 4070. Policy Research Working Paper 3512. Hamilton, Kirk. 2005. “Testing Genuine Saving.” Policy Re- Herrera, Santiago, and Gaobo Pang. 2005. “Efficiency of Public search Working Paper 3577. Spending in Developing Countries: An Efficiency Frontier Hamilton, Kirk, Susmita Dasgupta, Kiran Pandey, and David R. Approach.” Policy Research Working Paper 3645. Wheeler. 2004. “Air Pollution during Growth: Accounting for Herrero, Alicia Garcia, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. Governance and Vulnerability.” Policy Research Working 2005. “The Mix of International Banks’ Foreign Claims: Paper 3383. Determinants and Implications.” Policy Research Working Hamilton, Kirk, Giovanni Ruta, and Liaila Tajibaeva. 2005. Paper 3755. “Capital Accumulation and Resources Depletion - A Hart- Hertel, Thomas W., Roman Keeney, Maros Ivanic, and L. Alan wick Rule Counterfactual.” Policy Research Working Paper Winters. 2006. “Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultur- 3480. al Reforms in Rich and Poor Countries.” Policy Research Hanushek, Eric A., and Ludger Woessmann. 2007. “The Role of Working Paper 4060. Education Quality for Economic Growth.” Policy Research Hertel Thomas W., Paul V. Preckel, and J.A.L. Cranfield. 2007. Working Paper 4122. “Poverty Analysis Using an International Cross-Country Hausman, Warren H., Hau L. Lee, and Uma Subramanian. Demand System.” Policy Research Working Paper 4285. 2005. “Global Logistics Indicators, Supply Chain Metrics, Hertel, Thomas W., and Jeffrey J. Reimer. 2004. “Predicting the and Bilateral Trade Patterns.” Policy Research Working Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform.” Policy Research Work- Paper 3773. ing Paper 3444. Hayami, Yujiro. 2007. “An Emerging Agricultural Problem in Hertel, Thomas W., and L. Alan Winters. 2005. “Poverty Impacts High-Performing Asian Economies.” Policy Research Work- of a WTO Agreement: Synthesis and Overview.” Policy Re- ing Paper 4312. search Working Paper 3757. Hazans, Mihails. 2005. “Unemployment and the Earnings Struc- Hertel, Thomas, and Fan Zhai. 2004. “Labor Market Distor- ture in Latvia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3504. tions, Rural-Urban Inequality, and the Opening of China’s Heckelman, Jac, and Stephen Knack. 2005. “Foreign Aid and Economy.” Policy Research Working Paper 3455. Market-Liberalizing Reform.” Policy Research Working Pa- Herzberg, Benjamin. 2004. “Investment Climate Reform - Go- per 3557. ing the Last Mile: The Bulldozer Initiative in Bosnia and Hegre, Havard, and Clionadh Raleigh. 2007. “Population Size, Herzegovina.” Policy Research Working Paper 3390. Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggre- Herzberg, Benjamin, and Andrew Wright. 2005. “Competitive- gated Analysis.” Policy Research Working Paper 4243. ness Partnerships: Building and Maintaining Public-Private Heinemann, Alessandra, and Dorte Verner. 2006. “Crime and Dialogue to Improve the Investment Climate - A Resource Violence in Development: A Literature Review of Latin Drawn from the Review of 40 Countries’ Experiences.” Pol- America and the Caribbean.” Policy Research Working Pa- icy Research Working Paper 3683. per 4041. Hesse, Heiko. 2007. “Financial Intermediation in the Pre-Con- Henisz, Witold J., and Bennet A. Zelner. 2005. “Resistance to solidated Banking Sector in Nigeria.” Policy Research Work- Multilateral Influence on Reform: The Political Backlash ing Paper 4267.

244 ______. 2007. “Monetary Policy, Structural Break, and the Mon- Huber, Peter. 2006. “Regional Labor Market Developments in etary Transmission Mechanism in Thailand.” Policy Re- Transition.” Policy Research Working Paper 3896. search Working Paper 4248. Hurlin, Christophe. 2006. “Network Effects of the Productivity Hiau, Looi Kee, and Derek H.C. Chen. 2005. “A Model on of Infrastructure in Developing Countries.” Policy Research Knowledge and Endogenous Growth.” Policy Research Working Paper 3808. Working Paper 3539. Ianchovichina, Elena. 2005. “Duty Drawbacks, Competitive- Hildebrandt, Nicole, and David McKenzie. 2005. “The Effects ness, and Growth - Are Duty Drawbacks Worth the Hassle?” of Migration on Child Health in Mexico.” Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 3498. Working Paper 3573. Ianchovichina, Elena, and Pooja Kacker. 2005. “Growth Trends Hoekman, Bernard. 2006. “Liberalizing Trade in Services: A in the Developing World: Country Forecasts and Determi- Survey.” Policy Research Working Paper 4030. nants.” Policy Research Working Paper 3775. Hoekman, Bernard, and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik. 2004. “Poli- Ianchovichina, Elena, Lili Liu, and Mohan Nagarajan. 2006. cies Facilitating Firm Adjustment to Globalization.” Policy “Subnational Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: What Can Research Working Paper 3441. We Learn from Tamil Nadu?” Policy Research Working Hoekman, Bernard, and Caglar Ozden. 2005. “Trade Preferenc- Paper 3947. es and Differential Treatment of Developing Countries: A Iimi, Atsushi. 2007. “Infrastructure and Trade Preferences for Selective Survey.” Policy Research Working Paper 3566. the Livestock Sector: Empirical Evidence from the Beef In- Hoekman. Bernard, and Susan Prowse. 2005. “Economic Policy dustry in Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper 4201. Responses to Preference Erosion: From Trade as Aid to Aid _____. 2007. “Price Structure and Network Externalities in the for Trade.” Policy Research Working Paper 3721. Telecommunications Industry: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Hoekman, Bernard, and L. Alan Winters. 2005. “Trade and Em- Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper 4200. ployment: Stylized Facts and Research Findings.” Policy Imbs, Jean, and Romain Ranciere. 2005. “The Overhang Hang- Research Working Paper 3676. over.” Policy Research Working Paper 3673. Hoff, Karla, and Arijit Sen. 2005. “The Kin System as a Poverty Impavido, Gregorio. 2007. “The Mexican Pension Annuity Mar- Trap?” Policy Research Working Paper 3575. ket.” Policy Research Working Paper 4236. Hoff, Karla, and Joseph E. Stiglitz. 2005. “The Creation of the Impavido, Gregorio, and Roberto Rocha. 2006. “Competition Rule of Law and the Legitimacy of Property Rights: The and Performance in the Hungarian Second Pillar.” Policy Political and Economic Consequences of a Corrupt Privati- Research Working Paper 3876. zation.” Policy Research Working Paper 3779. Infrastructure Department, Europe and Central Asia Region. Hofman, Bert, Kadjatmiko, Kai Kaiser, and Sjahrir Bambang Su- 2006. “Dimensions of Urban Poverty in the Europe and harnoko. 2006. “Evaluating Fiscal Equalization in Indone- Central Asia Region.” Policy Research Working Paper 3998. sia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3911. Ishihara, Yoichiro. 2005. “Quantitative Analysis of Crisis: Crisis Honohan, Patrick. 2005. “Banking Sector Crises and Inequality.” Identification and Causality.” Policy Research Working Pa- Policy Research Working Paper 3659. per 3598. _____. 2005. “Measuring Microfinance Access: Building on Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin. 2006. “Trade Reforms and Welfare: An Ex- Existing Cross-Country Data.” Policy Research Working Post Decomposition of Income in Vietnam.” Policy Research Paper 3606. Working Paper 4049. _____. 2006. “Household Financial Assets in the Process of De- Islam, Roumeen. 2004. “What Are the Right Institutions in a velopment.” Policy Research Working Paper 3965. Globalizing World? and... Can We Keep Them If We Have _____. 2007. “Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations.” Found Them?” Policy Research Working Paper 3448. Policy Research Working Paper 4172. _____. 2007. “Economic Information and Finance: More Infor- Hoornweg, Daniel, Fernanda Ruiz Nunez, Mila Freire, Natalie mation Means More Credit, Fewer Bad Loans, and Less Palugyai, Maria Villaveces, and Eduardo Wills Herrera. 2007. Corruption.” Policy Research Working Paper 4250. “City Indicators: Now to Nanjing.” Policy Research Working Islam, Roumeen, and Ariell Reshef. 2006. “Trade and Harmoni- Paper 4114. zation: If Your Institutions Are Good, Does It Matter If They Hostland, Doug, and Philippe Karam. 2006. “Assessing Debt Are Different?” Policy Research Working Paper 3907. Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Sto- Jacoby, Hanan G., and Ghazala Mansuri. 2006. “Incomplete chastic Simulation Methods.” Policy Research Working Pa- Contracts and Investment: A Study of Land Tenancy in Pak- per 3821. istan.” Policy Research Working Paper 3826.

245 _____. 2007. “Incentives, Supervision, and Sharecropper Pro- Jha, Saumitra, Vijayendra Rao, and Michael Woolcock. 2005. ductivity.” Policy Research Working Paper 4125. “Governance in the Gullies: Democratic Responsiveness _____. 2007. “Watta Satta: Bride Exchange and Women’s Welfare and Leadership in Delhi’s Slums.” Policy Research Working in Rural Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 4126. Paper 3694. Jain, Suman. 2007. “An Empirical Economic Assessment of Im- Jiang, Juan, Yuko Harayama, and Shiro Abe. 2006. “Universi- pacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zambia.” Policy ty-Local Industry Linkages: The Case of Tohoku Univer- Research Working Paper 4291. sity in the Sendai Area of Japan.” Policy Research Working Jamasb, Tooraj, Raffaella Mota, David Newbery, and Michael Paper 3991. Pollitt. 2005. “Electricity Sector Reform in Developing Johansson, Robert C. 2005. “Micro and Macro-Level Approaches Countries: A Survey of Empirical Evidence on Determinants for Assessing the Value of Irrigation Water.” Policy Research and Performance.” Policy Research Working Paper 3549. Working Paper 3778. Jamasb, Tooraj, David Newbery, and Michael Pollitt. 2005. “Core Johnsson, Rosa Maria Formiga, and Karin Kemper. 2005. “In- Indicators for Determinants and Performance of the Elec- stitutional and Policy Analysis of River Basin Management: tricity Sector in Developing Countries.” Policy Research The Alto-Tiete River Basin, São Paulo, Brazil.” Policy Re- Working Paper 3599. search Working Paper 3650. Jamison, Mark A. 2005. “Leadership and the Independent Reg- _____. 2005. “Institutional and Policy Analysis of River Basin ulator.” Policy Research Working Paper 3620. Management: The Jaguaribe River Basin, Ceara, Brazil.” Javorcik, Beata, Wolfgang Keller, and James Tybout. 2006. Policy Research Working Paper 3649. “Openness and Industrial Response in a Wal-Mart World: A Johnston, Michael, and Sahr J. Kpundeh. 2004. “Building a Case Study of Mexican Soaps, Detergents, and Surfactant Clean Machine: Anti-Corruption Coalitions and Sustainable Producers.” Policy Research Working Paper 3999. Reform.” Policy Research Working Paper 3466. Javorcik, Beata S., and Gaia Narciso. 2007. “Differentiated Prod- Jun Koo, and Somik V. Lall. 2005. “Economic Geography: Real ucts and Evasion of Import Tariffs.” Policy Research Work- or Hype?” Policy Research Working Paper 3465. ing Paper 4123. Justesen, Michael, and Dorte Verner. 2007. “Factors Impacting Javorcik, Beata S., Caglar Ozden, Mariana Spatareanu, and Cris- Youth Development in Haiti.” Policy Research Working Pa- tina Neagu. 2006. “Migrant Networks and Foreign Direct per 4110. Investment.” Policy Research Working Paper 4046. Kalavakonda, Vijay, and Olivier Mahul. 2005. “Crop Insurance in Javorcik, Beata S., Kamal Saggi, and Mariana Spatareanu. 2004. Karnataka.” Policy Research Working Paper 3654. “Does It Matter Where You Come from? Vertical Spillovers Kaminski, Bartlomiej. 2006. “Bulgaria’s Institutions and Poli- from Foreign Direct Investment and the Nationality of In- cies: Integrating into Pan-European Markets.” Policy Re- vestors.” Policy Research Working Paper 3449. search Working Paper 3864. Jennings, Colin. 2007. “Political Leadership, Conflict, and the Kaminski, Bartlomiej, and Francis Ng. 2004. “Romania’s Inte- Prospects for Constitutional Peace.” Policy Research Work- gration into European Markets: Implications for Sustainabil- ing Paper 4196. ity of the Current Export Boom.” Policy Research Working Jensen, Jesper, Thomas Rutherford, and David Tarr. 2004. “The Paper 3451. Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment _____. 2006. “Bulgaria’s Integration into the Pan-European in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Economy and Industrial Restructuring.” Policy Research Trade Organization.” Policy Research Working Paper 3391. Working Paper 3863. _____. 2005. “Telecommunications Reform within Russia’s Ac- _____. 2006. “Turkey’s Evolving Trade Integration into Pan-Eu- cession to the World Trade Organization.” Policy Research ropean Markets.” Policy Research Working Paper 3908. Working Paper 3501. Kapoor, Mudit, and David Le Blanc. 2004. “Measuring the Risk Jensen, Jesper, and David Tarr. 2007. “The Impact of Kazakh- on Housing Investment in the Informal Sector: Theory stan Accession to the World Trade Organization: A Quantita- and Evidence from Pune, India.” Policy Research Working tive Assessment.” Policy Research Working Paper 4142. Paper 3433. Jensen, Olivia, and Frederic Blanc-Brude. 2006. “The Hand- Karacaovali, Baybars. 2006. “Productivity Matters for Trade Pol- shake: Why Do Governments and Firms Sign Private Sector icy: Theory and Evidence.” Policy Research Working Paper Participation Deals? Evidence from the Water and Sanitation 3925. Sector in Developing Countries.” Policy Research Working Karacaovali, Baybars, and Nuno Limao. 2005. “The Clash of Paper 3937. Liberalizations: Preferential Versus Multilateral Trade Lib-

246 eralization in the European Union.” Policy Research Work- _____. 2006. “What Is Effective Aid? How Would Donors Allo- ing Paper 3493. cate It?” Policy Research Working Paper 4005. Kariuki, Mukami, and Jordan Schwartz. 2005. “Small-Scale Pri- _____. 2007. “Construction, Corruption, and Developing Coun- vate Service Providers of Water Supply and Electricity: A tries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4271. Review of Incidence, Structure, Pricing, and Operating Kenyon, Thomas. 2007. “A Framework for Thinking about En- Characteristics.” Policy Research Working Paper 3727. terprise Formalization Policies in Developing Countries.” Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay, and Massimo Mastruzzi. 2005. Policy Research Working Paper 4235. “Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for Kessides, Ioannis N., Zeljko Bogetic, and Luiz Maurer. 2007. 1996–2004.” Policy Research Working Paper 3630. “Current and Forthcoming Issues in the South African Elec- _____. 2006. “Governance Matters V: Aggregate and Individu- tricity Sector.” Policy Research Working Paper 4197. al Governance Indicators for 1996–2005.” Policy Research Keun Lee, Byung-Kook Kim, H. Lee Chung, and Yee Jaeyeol. Working Paper 4012. 2005. “Visible Success and Invisible Failure in Post-Crisis _____. 2007. “The Worldwide Governance Indicators Project: An- Reform in the Republic of Korea: Interplay of the Global swering the Critics.” Policy Research Working Paper 4149. Standards, Agents, and Local Specificity.” Policy Research Kaufmann, Daniel, Frannie Leautier, and Massimo Mastruzzi. Working Paper 3651. 2005. “Governance and the City: An Empirical Exploration Khan, Faruk A. 2006. “New Product Technology, Accumulation, into Global Determinants of Urban Performance.” Policy and Growth.” Policy Research Working Paper 3846. Research Working Paper 3712. Khandker, Shahidur R., Zaid Bakht, and Gayatri B. Koolwal. Kee, Hiau Looi, and Derek H.C. Chen. 2005. “A Model on 2006. “The Poverty Impact of Rural Roads: Evidence from Knowledge and Endogenous Growth.” Policy Research Bangladesh.” Policy Research Working Paper 3875. Working Paper 3539. Kikeri, Sunita, Thomas Kenyon, and Vincent Palmade. 2006. Kee, Hiau Looi, Alessandro Nicita, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2004. “Reforming the Investment Climate: Lessons for Practitio- “Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions.” Policy ners.” Policy Research Working Paper 3986. Research Working Paper 3452. Kikeri, Sunita, and Aishetu Kolo. 2005. “Privatization: Trends _____. 2006. “Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices.” Policy and Recent Developments.” Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 3840. Paper 3765. Keefer, Philip. 2004. “Elections, Special Interests, and the Fis- Killicoat, Phillip. 2007. “Weaponomics: The Global Market for cal Costs of Financial Crisis.” Policy Research Working Pa- Assault Rifles.” Policy Research Working Paper 4202. per 3439. Kim, Namsuk. 2007. “The Impact of Remittances on Labor _____. 2005. “Democratization and Clientelism: Why Are Young Supply: The Case of Jamaica.” Policy Research Working Pa- Democracies Badly Governed?” Policy Research Working per 4120. Paper 3594. Kim-Song Tan, and Sock-Yong Phang. 2005. “From Efficiency- _____. 2007. “Beyond Legal Origin and Checks and Balances: Driven to Innovation-Driven Economic Growth: Perspectives Political Credibility, Citizen Information, and Financial Sec- from Singapore.” Policy Research Working Paper 3569. tor Development.” Policy Research Working Paper 4154. Kisunko, Gregory, and Jacqueline Coolidge. 2007. “Survey of _____. 2007. “Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autoc- Land and Real Estate Transactions in the Russian Federa- racies and Democracies.” Policy Research Working Paper tion: Statistical Analysis of Selected Hypotheses.” Policy 4185. Research Working Paper 4115. Keefer, Philip, and Razvan Vlaicu. 2005. “Democracy, Credibil- Klapper, Leora. 2005. “The Role of Factoring for Financing ity and Clientelism.” Policy Research Working Paper 3472. Small and Medium Enterprises.” Policy Research Working Kellermann, Tom, and Valerie McNevin. 2005. “Capital Markets Paper 3593. and E-Fraud: Policy Note and Concept Paper for Future Klapper, Leora F., Luc Laeven, and Inessa Love. 2005. “What Study.” Policy Research Working Paper 3586. Drives Corporate Governance Reform? Firm-Level Evi- Kenny, Charles. 2005. “Reforming the Posts: Abandoning the dence from Eastern Europe.” Policy Research Working Pa- Monopoly-Supported Postal Universal Service Obliga- per 3600. tion in Developing Countries.” Policy Research Working Klapper, Leora, Virginia Sarria-Allende, and Rida Zaidi. 2006. “A Paper 3627. Firm-Level Analysis of Small and Medium Size Enterprise _____. 2006. “Measuring and Reducing the Impact of Corruption Financing in Poland.” Policy Research Working Paper 3984. in Infrastructure.” Policy Research Working Paper 4099. Klinger, Bailey, and Daniel Lederman. 2004. “Discovery and

247 Development: An Empirical Exploration of ‘New’ Prod- Kristensen, Nicolai, and Wendy Cunningham. 2006. “Do Mini- ucts.” Policy Research Working Paper 3450. mum Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean Matter? _____. 2006. “Diversification, Innovation, and Imitation inside Evidence from 19 Countries.” Policy Research Working Pa- the Global Technological Frontier.” Policy Research Work- per 3870. ing Paper 3872. Kristensen, Nicolai, and Dorte Verner. 2005. “Labor Market _____. 2006. “Innovation and Export Portfolios.” Policy Re- Distortions in Côte d’Ivoire: Analyses of Employer-Employ- search Working Paper 3983. ee Data from the Manufacturing Sector.” Policy Research Klytchnikova, Irina, and Ndiame Diop. 2006. “Trade Reforms, Working Paper 3771. Farm Productivity, and Poverty in Bangladesh.” Policy Re- Krivonos, Ekaterina. 2004. “The Impact of Coffee Market Re- search Working Paper 3980. forms on Producer Prices and Price Transmission.” Policy Klytchnikova, Irina, and Michael Lokshin. 2007. “Measuring Research Working Paper 3358. Welfare Gains from Better Quality Infrastructure.” Policy Krivonos, Ekaterina, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2006. “Sugar Pric- Research Working Paper 4217. es, Labor Income, and Poverty in Brazil.” Policy Research Knack, Stephen. 2006. “Measuring Corruption in Eastern Eu- Working Paper 3874. rope and Central Asia: A Critique of the Cross-Country Indi- Kuijs, Louis. 2005. “Investment and Saving in China.” Policy cators.” Policy Research Working Paper 3968. Research Working Paper 3633. Knill, April M. 2005. “Can Foreign Portfolio Investment Bridge _____. 2006. “How Will China’s Saving-Investment Balance the Small Firm Financing Gap around the World?” Policy Evolve?” Policy Research Working Paper 3958. Research Working Paper 3796. Kuijs, Louis, and Tao Wang. 2005. “China’s Pattern of Growth: _____. 2005. “Taking the Bad with the Good: Volatility of For- Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality.” Policy eign Portfolio Investment and Financial Constraints of Small Research Working Paper 3767. Firms.” Policy Research Working Paper 3797. Kuiper, Marijke, and Frank van Tongeren. 2005. “Growing To- Komives, Kristin, Jonathan Halpern, Vivien Foster, Quentin gether or Growing Apart? A Village Level Study of the Im- Wodon, and Roohi Abdullah. 2006. “The Distributional pact of the Doha Round on Rural China.” Policy Research Incidence of Residential Water and Electricity Subsidies.” Working Paper 3696. Policy Research Working Paper 3878. Kume, Honorio, and Guida Piani. 2005. “Antidumping and Safe- Kopits, Elizabeth, and Maureen Cropper. 2005. “Why Have guard Mechanisms: The Brazilian Experience, 1988-2003.” Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries? Im- Policy Research Working Paper 3562. plications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants.” Policy Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, Ariel Dinar, and Shlomi Dinar. 2007. Research Working Paper 3678. “Scarperation: An Empirical Inquiry into the Role of Scar- Korinek, Anton, Johan A. Mistiaen, and Martin Ravallion. 2005. city in Fostering Cooperation between International River “An Econometric Method of Correcting for Unit Nonresponse Riparians.” Policy Research Working Paper 4294. Bias in Surveys.” Policy Research Working Paper 3711. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, Marita Manley, and David Maddison. _____. 2005. “Survey Nonresponse and the Distribution of In- 2007. “The Impact of Climate Change on African Agricul- come.” Policy Research Working Paper 3543. ture: A Ricardian Approach.” Policy Research Working Paper Kraay, Aart. 2007. “The Welfare Effects of a Large Deprecia- 4306. tion: The Case of Egypt, 2000-05.” Policy Research Working Ladekarl, Jeppe, Regitze Ladekarl, Erik Brink Andersen, and Paper 4182. Dimitri Vittas. 2007. “The Use of Derivatives to Hedge Em- Kraay, Aart, and Claudio Raddatz. 2005. “Poverty Traps, Aid, and bedded Options: The Case of Pension Institutions in Den- Growth.” Policy Research Working Paper 3631. mark.” Policy Research Working Paper 4159. Kraay, Aart, and Jaume Ventura. 2005. “The Dot-Com Bubble, Lall, Somik V., and Mattias Lundberg. 2006. “What Are Public the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account.” Policy Services Worth, and to Whom? Non-Parametric Estimation of Research Working Paper 3672. Capitalization in Pune.” Policy Research Working Paper 3924. Krebs, Tom, Pravin Krishna, and William Maloney. 2005. “Trade Lall, Somik V., and Taye Mengistae. 2005. “Business Environ- Policy, Income Risk, and Welfare.” Policy Research Working ment, Clustering, and Industry Location: Evidence from In- Paper 3622. dian Cities.” Policy Research Working Paper 3675. Kremer, Michael, Edward Miguel, Rebecca Thornton, and Owen _____. 2005. “The Impact of Business Environment and Eco- Ozier. 2005. “Incentives to Learn.” Policy Research Working nomic Geography on Plant-Level Productivity: An Analysis Paper 3546. of Indian Industry.” Policy Research Working Paper 3664.

248 Lall, Somik V., Harris Selod, and Zmarak Shalizi. 2006. “Rural- Risk - Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies.” Urban Migration in Developing Countries: A Survey of Policy Research Working Paper 3440. Theoretical Predictions and Empirical Findings.” Policy Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo, Sergio L. Schmukler, and Neeltje Van Ho- Research Working Paper 3915. ren. 2006. “International Financial Integration through the Lall, Somik V., Ajay Suri, and Uwe Deichmann. 2005. “House- Law of One Price.” Policy Research Working Paper 3897. hold Savings and Residential Mobility in Informal Settle- Ley, Eduardo, and Mark F.J. Steel. 2006. “Jointness in Bayesian ments.” Policy Research Working Paper 3596. Variable Selection with Applications to Growth Regression.” Lam, David. 2006. “The Demography of Youth in Developing Policy Research Working Paper 4063. Countries and Its Economic Implications.” Policy Research _____. 2007. “On the Effect of Prior Assumptions in Bayesian Working Paper 4022. Model Averaging with Applications to Growth Regression.” Lane, Philip R., and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2007. “The Interna- Policy Research Working Paper 4238. tional Financial Integration of China and India.” Policy Re- Lie, Tove Grete, Helga Malmin Binningsbo, and Scott Gates. search Working Paper 4132. 2007. “Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace.” Policy Laplante, Benoit, Craig Meisner, and Hua Wang. 2005. “En- Research Working Paper 4191. vironment as Cultural Heritage: The Armenian Diaspora’s Limao, Nuno, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2005. “Trade Preferences Willingness-to-Pay to Protect Armenia’s Lake Sevan.” Poli- to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of cy Research Working Paper 3520. Lost Multilateral Liberalization.” Policy Research Working Larson, Donald F., and Gunnar Breustedt. 2007. “Will Markets Paper 3565. Direct Investments under the Kyoto Protocol?” Policy Re- Limao, Nuno, and Kamal Saggi. 2006. “Tariff Retaliation Versus search Working Paper 4131. Financial Compensation in the Enforcement of International Lasagabaster, Esperanza, Samuel Munzele Maimbo, and Sriyani Trade Agreements.” Policy Research Working Paper 3873. Hulugalle. 2005. “Sri Lanka’s Migrant Labor Remittances: Lindbeck, Assar. 2006. “An Essay on Economic Reforms Enhancing the Quality and Outreach of the Rural Remit- and Social Change in China.” Policy Research Working tance Infrastructure.” Policy Research Working Paper 3789. Paper 4057. Laxminarayan, Ramanan, Mead Over, and David L. Smith. 2005. Lindelöw, Magnus, Peter Serneels, and Teigist Lemma. 2005. “Will a Global Subsidy of Artemisinin-Based Combination “The Performance of Health Workers in Ethiopia - Results Treatment (ACT) for Malaria Delay the Emergence of Re- from Qualitative Research.” Policy Research Working Paper sistance and Save Lives?” Policy Research Working Paper 3558. 3670. Lindelöw, Magnus, and Adam Wagstaff. 2005. “Health Shocks in Le Blanc, David. 2005. “Economic Evaluation of Housing Sub- China: Are the Poor and Uninsured Less Protected?” Policy sidy Systems: A Methodology with Application to Morocco.” Research Working Paper 3740. Policy Research Working Paper 3529. Loayza, Norman V., Ana Maria Oviedo, and Luis Serven. 2005. Lecocq, Franck, and Zmarak Shalizi. 2004. “Will the Kyoto Pro- “The Impact of Regulation on Growth and Informality - Cross- tocol Affect Growth in Russia?” Policy Research Working Country Evidence.” Policy Research Working Paper 3623. Paper 3454. _____. 2005. “Regulation and Macroeconomic Performance.” Lederman, Daniel, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Lucy Payton. Policy Research Working Paper 3469. 2006. “Export Promotion Agencies: What Works and What Loayza, Norman V., and Claudio Raddatz. 2006. “The Composi- Doesn’t.” Policy Research Working Paper 4044. tion of Growth Matters for Poverty Alleviation.” Policy Re- Lederman, Daniel, and Caglar Ozden. 2005. “Geopolitical In- search Working Paper 4077. terests and Preferential Access to U.S. Markets.” Policy Re- _____. 2006. “The Structural Determinants of External Vulner- search Working Paper 3531. ability.” Policy Research Working Paper 4089. Lederman, Daniel, and Laura Saenz. 2005. “Innovation and De- Loayza, Norman, and Romain Ranciere. 2004. “Financial Devel- velopment around the World, 1960-2000.” Policy Research opment, Financial Fragility, and Growth.” Policy Research Working Paper 3774. Working Paper 3431. Levine, Ross. 2004. “The Corporate Governance of Banks - A Loayza, Norman V., and Jamele Rigolini. 2006. “Informality Concise Discussion of Concepts and Evidence.” Policy Re- Trends and Cycles.” Policy Research Working Paper 4078. search Working Paper 3404. Loayza, Norman V., and Raimundo Soto. 2004. “On the Mea- Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Ser- surement of Market-Oriented Reforms.” Policy Research gio L. Schmukler. 2004. “Market Discipline under Systemic Working Paper 3371.

249 Loening, Josef L. 2005. “Effects of Primary, Secondary, and Ter- Love, Inessa, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2005. “Firm tiary Education on Economic Growth: Evidence from Gua- Financing in India: Recent Trends and Factors.” Policy Re- temala.” Policy Research Working Paper 3610. search Working Paper 3476. Lokshin, Michael, and Kathleen Beegle. 2006. “Forgone Earn- Love, Inessa, Lorenzo A. Preve, and Virginia Sarria-Allende. ings from Smoking: Evidence for a Developing Country.” 2005. “Trade Credit and Bank Credit: Evidence from Recent Policy Research Working Paper 4018. Financial Crises.” Policy Research Working Paper 3716. Lokshin, Michael, Mikhail Bontch-Osmolovski, and Elena Glin- Maddison, David. 2007. “The Perception of and Adaptation skaya. 2007. “Work-Related Migration and Poverty Reduc- to Climate Change in Africa.” Policy Research Working tion in Nepal.” Policy Research Working Paper 4231. Paper 4308. Lokshin, Michael M., and Ruslan G. Yemtsov. 2005. “Who Bears Mahul, Olivier, and Eugene Gurenko. 2006. “The Macro Fi- the Cost of Russia’s Military Draft?” Policy Research Work- nancing of Natural Hazards in Developing Countries.” Poli- ing Paper 3547. cy Research Working Paper 4075. Lopez, J. Humberto. 2004. “Pro-Growth, Pro-Poor: Is There a Majnoni, Giovanni, Margaret Miller, and Andrew Powell. 2004. Tradeoff?” Policy Research Working Paper 3378. “Bank Capital and Loan Loss Reserves under Basel II - Im- _____. 2006. “Did Growth Become Less Pro-Poor in the 1990s?” plications for Emerging Countries.” Policy Research Work- Policy Research Working Paper 3931. ing Paper 3437. Lopez, Humberto, Luis Molina, and Maurizio Bussolo. 2007. Maloney, William, Pravin Krishna, and Tom Krebs. 2007. “Hu- “Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate.” Policy Re- man Capital, Trade Liberalization, and Income Risk.” Policy search Working Paper 4213. Research Working Paper 4276. Lopez, Humberto, and Luis Serven. 2006. “A Normal Relation- Mamingi, Nlandu, Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, and Jong ship? Poverty, Growth, and Inequality.” Policy Research Ho Hong. 2006. “Firms’ Environmental Performance: Does Working Paper 3814. News Matter?” Policy Research Working Paper 3888. Lopez, Ramon. 2005. “Why Governments Should Stop Non- Manchin, Miriam. 2005. “Preference Utilization and Tariff Social Subsidies: Measuring Their Consequences for Rural Reduction in European Union Imports from African, Ca- Latin America.” Policy Research Working Paper 3609. ribbean, and Pacific Countries.” Policy Research Working Lopez Murphy, Pablo, and Alberto R. Musalem. 2004. “Pension Paper 3688. Funds and National Saving.” Policy Research Working Pa- Mani, Muthukumara, and Shreyasi Jha. 2006. “Trade Liberal- per 3410. ization and the Environment in Vietnam.” Policy Research Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys. 2004. “Teachers’ Salaries and Pro- Working Paper 3879. fessional Profile in Mexico.” Policy Research Working Manole, Vlad, Will Martin, and Joseph Francois. 2005. “Choos- Paper 3394. ing Formulas for Market Access Negotiation: Efficiency and _____. 2005. “Evaluation of National School for Professional Market Access Considerations.” Policy Research Working Technology Education in Mexico.” Policy Research Work- Paper 3474. ing Paper 3572. Mansuri, Ghazala. 2006. “Migration, School Attainment, and _____. 2006. “Mexico: Two Decades of the Evolution of Educa- Child Labor: Evidence from Rural Pakistan.” Policy Re- tion and Inequality.” Policy Research Working Paper 3919. search Working Paper 3945. Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys, Monica Tinajero, and Marcela Rubio. _____. 2006. “Migration, Sex Bias, and Child Growth in Rural 2005. “Mexico: Human Capital Effects on Wages and Pro- Pakistan.” Policy Research Working Paper 3946. ductivity.” Policy Research Working Paper 3791. Marini, Alessandra, and Michele Gragnolati. 2006. “Nonlinear Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio. 2004. “A Survey of Securities Laws Effects of Altitude on Child Growth in Peru: A Multilevel and Enforcement.” Policy Research Working Paper 3405. Analysis.” Policy Research Working Paper 3823. Lopez-Garcia, Paloma. 2006. “Business Environment and Labor Markandya, Anil, and Suzette Pedroso-Galinato. 2006. “How Market Outcomes in Europe and Central Asian Countries.” Substitutable Is Natural Capital?” Policy Research Working Policy Research Working Paper 3885. Paper 3803. Lotsch, Alexander. 2007. “Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Marschinski, Robert, and Franck Lecocq. 2006. “Do Intensity Africa to Transient Climate Change.” Policy Research Work- Targets Control Uncertainty Better Than Quotas? Condi- ing Paper 4289. tions, Calibrations, and Caveats.” Policy Research Working Love, Inessa. 2005. “Finances of Egyptian Listed Firms.” Policy Paper 4033. Research Working Paper 3639. Martin, Will. 2005. “Outgrowing Resource Dependence Theory

250 and Some Recent Developments.” Policy Research Working _____. 2007. “Self-Selection Patterns in Mexico-U.S. Migration: Paper 3482. The Role of Migration Networks.” Policy Research Working Martin, Will, and James E. Anderson. 2005. “Costs of Taxation Paper 4118. and the Benefits of Public Goods: The Role of Income Ef- Medvedev, Denis. 2006. “Beyond Trade: The Impact of Pref- fects.” Policy Research Working Paper 3700. erential Trade Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment Martin, Will, Elena Ianchovichina, and Betina Dimaranan. 2007. Inflows.” Policy Research Working Paper 4065. “China, India, and the Future of the World Economy: Fierce _____. 2006. “Preferential Trade Agreements and Their Role in Competition or Shared Growth?” Policy Research Working World Trade.” Policy Research Working Paper 4038. Paper 4304. Meisner, Craig, Hua Wang, and Benoit Laplante. 2006. “Welfare Maskus, Keith E., Tsunehiro Otsuki, and John S. Wilson. 2005. Measurement Bias in Household and On-site Surveying of “The Cost of Compliance with Product Standards for Firms Water-Based Recreation: An Application to Lake Sevan, Ar- in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study.” Policy menia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3932. Research Working Paper 3590. Melecky, Martin. 2007. “Choosing the Currency Structure for Mastruzzi, Massimo, Aart Kraay, and Daniel Kaufmann. 2007. Sovereign Debt: A Review of Current Approaches.” Policy “Governance Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Gover- Research Working Paper 4246. nance Indicators, 1996–2006.” Policy Research Working Pa- _____. 2007. “A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Debt Manage- per 4280. ment Strategies.” Policy Research Working Paper 4287. Mattoo, Aaditya. 2005. “Services in a Development Round: Mendelsohn, Robert, and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya. 2007. “Crop Three Goals and Three Proposals.” Policy Research Work- Selection: Adapting to Climage Change in Africa.” Policy ing Paper 3718. Research Working Paper 4307. Mattoo, Aaditya, Ileana Cristina Neagu, and Çaglar Özden. 2005. _____. 2007. “Endogenous Irrigation: The Impact of Climate “Brain Waste? Educated Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Mar- Change on Farmers in Africa.” Policy Research Working Pa- ket.” Policy Research Working Paper 3581. per 4278. Mattoo, Aaditya, and Randeep Rathindran. 2005. “Does Health _____. 2007. “A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Insurance Impede Trade in Health Care Services?” Policy Change on African Cropland.” Policy Research Working Pa- Research Working Paper 3667. per 4305. McCluskey, Alyssa, and Kenneth Strzepek. 2007. “The Impacts Mendelsohn, Robert, and Niggol Seo. 2007. “Changing Farm of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agri- Types and Irrigation as an Adaptation to Climate Change culture in Africa.” Policy Research Working Paper 4290. in Latin American Agriculture.” Policy Research Working McCulloch, Neil, Julian Weisbrod, and C. Peter Timmer. 2007. Paper 4161. “Pathways out of Poverty during an Economic Crisis: An _____. 2007. “Climate Change Adaptation in Africa: A Micro- Empirical Assessment of Rural Indonesia.” Policy Research economic Analysis of Livestock Choice.” Policy Research Working Paper 4173. Working Paper 4277. McKenzie, David J. 2005. “Paper Walls Are Easier to Tear Down: _____. 2007. “Climate Change Impacts on Animal Husbandry Passport Costs and Legal Barriers to Emigration.” Policy Re- in Africa: A Ricardian Analysis.” Policy Research Working search Working Paper 3783. Paper 4261. _____. 2006. “A Profile of the World’s Young Developing Coun- _____. 2007. “The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock try Migrants.” Policy Research Working Paper 4021. Management in Africa: A Structural Ricardian Analysis.” McKenzie, David, John Gibson, and Steven Stillman. 2006. Policy Research Working Paper 4279. “How Important Is Selection? Experimental Versus Non- Mengistae, Taye, David R. Dollar, and Mary C. Hallward-Drie- Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migra- meier. 2005. “Investment Climate and International Integra- tion.” Policy Research Working Paper 3906. tion.” Policy Research Working Paper 3323. _____. 2007. “A Land of Milk and Honey with Streets Paved Micco, Alejandro, and Tomas Serebrisky. 2004. “Infrastructure, with Gold: Do Emigrants Have Over-Optimistic Expecta- Competition Regimes, and Air Transport Costs: Cross-Coun- tions about Incomes Abroad?” Policy Research Working Pa- try Evidence.” Policy Research Working Paper 3355. per 4141. Milanovic, Branko. 2005. “Half a World: Regional Inequality in Five McKenzie, David, and Hillel Rapoport. 2006. “Can Migration Great Federations.” Policy Research Working Paper 3699. Reduce Educational Attainment? Evidence from Mexico.” _____. 2006. “Global Income Inequality: What It Is and Why It Policy Research Working Paper 3952. Matters.” Policy Research Working Paper 3865.

251 Milanovic, Branko, and Lyn Squire. 2005. “Does Tariff Liber- Murgai, Rinku, and Martin Ravallion. 2005. “Is a Guaranteed alization Increase Wage Inequality? Some Empirical Evi- Living Wage a Good Anti-Poverty Policy?” Policy Research dence.” Policy Research Working Paper 3571. Working Paper 3640. Milante, Gary. 2007. “A Kleptocrat’s Survival Guide: Autocratic Mushfiq Mobarak, Ahmed, Andrew Sunil Rajkumar, and Mau- Longevity in the Face of Civil Conflict.” Policy Research reen Cropper. 2005. “The Political Economy of Health Ser- Working Paper 4186. vices Provision and Access in Brazil.” Policy Research Work- Mills, Rob, and Qimiao Fan. 2006. “The Investment Climate ing Paper 3508. in Post-Conflict Situations.” Policy Research Working Nabeshima, Kaoru, and Shahid Yusuf. 2007. “Strengthening Paper 4055. China’s Technological Capability.” Policy Research Working Ming, Su, and Quanhou Zhao. 2006. “The Fiscal Framework and Paper 4309. Urban Infrastructure Finance in China.” Policy Research Nair, Ajai. 2005. “Sustainability of Microfinance Self-Help Working Paper 4051. Groups in India: Would Federating Help?” Policy Research Mintz, Jack M., and Michael Smart. 2006. “Incentives for Public Working Paper 3516. Investment under Fiscal Rules.” Policy Research Working Nakane, Marcio I., and Daniela B. Weintraub. 2005. “Bank Paper 3860. Privatization and Productivity: Evidence for Brazil.” Policy Mirza, Daniel, and Thierry Verdier. 2006. “Are Lives a Substi- Research Working Paper 3666. tute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security, and U.S. Bilateral Nauges, Celine, and Caroline van den Berg. 2006. “Water Mar- Imports.” Policy Research Working Paper 4094. kets, Demand, and Cost Recovery for Piped Water Supply _____. 2006. “International Trade, Security, and Transnational Services: Evidence from Southwest Sri Lanka.” Policy Re- Terrorism: Theory and Empirics.” Policy Research Working search Working Paper 3941. Paper 4093. _____. 2007. “How “Natural” Are Natural Monopolies in the Mitchell, Donald. 2006. “Sugar in the Caribbean: Adjusting to Water Supply and Sewerage Sector? Case Studies from De- Eroding Preferences.” Policy Research Working Paper 3802. veloping and Transition Economies.” Policy Research Work- Mitra, Devashish, and Beyza P. Ural. 2007. “Indian Manufactur- ing Paper 4137. ing: A Slow Sector in a Rapidly Growing Economy.” Policy Nelson, Andrew, and Kenneth M. Chomitz. 2004. “The Forest- Research Working Paper 4233. Hydrology-Poverty Nexus in Central America: An Heuristic Mitra, Pradeep, and Ruslan Yemtsov. 2006. “Increasing Inequali- Analysis.” Policy Research Working Paper 3430. ty in Transition Economies: Is There More to Come?” Policy Nenova, Tatiana. 2006. “Takeover Laws and Financial Develop- Research Working Paper 4007. ment.” Policy Research Working Paper 4029. Monge-Gonzalez, Ricardo, and Francisco Monge-Arino. 2005. Newfarmer, Richard, and Paul Brenton. 2007. “Watching More “Anti-Dumping Policies and Safeguard Measures in the Than the Discovery Channel: Export Cycles and Diver- Context of Costa Rica’s Economic Liberalization.” Policy sification in Development.” Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 3591. Paper 4302. Montalvo, Jose G., and Marta Reynal-Querol. 2007. “Ethnic Po- Newhouse, David, and Kathleen Beegle. 2005. “The Effect of larization and the Duration of Civil Wars.” Policy Research School Type on Academic Achievement: Evidence from In- Working Paper 4192. donesia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3604. Montiel, Peter, and Luis Servén. 2004. “Macroeconomic Stabili- Nhemachena, Charles, and Reneth Mano. 2007. “Assessment of ty in Developing Countries - How Much Is Enough?” Policy the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Research Working Paper 3456. Zimbabwe: A Ricardian Approach.” Policy Research Work- Morck, Randall, and Bernard Yeung. 2004. “Special Issues Relat- ing Paper 4292. ing to Corporate Governance and Family Control.” Policy Nicita, Alessandro. 2005. “Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Research Working Paper 3406. Mexican Households: The Effect of the Doha Development Morrison, Andrew, Mary Ellsberg, and Sarah Bott. 2004. “Ad- Agenda.” Policy Research Working Paper 3707. dressing Gender-Based Violence in the Latin American and _____. 2006. “Export Led Growth, Pro-Poor or Not? Evidence Caribbean Region: A Critical Review of Interventions.” Pol- from Madagascar’s Textile and Apparel Industry.” Policy Re- icy Research Working Paper 3438. search Working Paper 3841. Munoz, Giovanni, Florent Maraux, and Robina Wahaj. 2007. Nielsen, Chantal Pohl. 2007. “Immigrant Over-education: “Actual Crop Water Use in Project Countries: A Synthesis at Evidence from Denmark.” Policy Research Working the Regional Level.” Policy Research Working Paper 4288. Paper 4234.

252 Niimi, Yoko, and Caglar Ozden. 2006. “Migration and Remit- Patrinos, Harry Anthony. 2007. “The Living Conditions of Chil- tances: Causes and Linkages.” Policy Research Working Pa- dren.” Policy Research Working Paper 4251. per 4087. Patrinos, Harry Anthony, Vicente Garcia Moreno, and Jesus Al- Nogues, Julio J., and Elias Baracat. 2005. “Political Economy of varez. 2007. “Institutional Effects as Determinants of Learn- Antidumping and Safeguards in Argentina.” Policy Research ing Outcomes: Exploring State Variations in Mexico.” Policy Working Paper 3587. Research Working Paper 4286. Noumba Um, Paul, and Severine Dinghem. 2005. “Private Par- Patrinos, Harry Anthony, Cris Ridao-Cano, and Chris Sakellar- ticipation in Infrastructure Projects in the Republic of Ko- iou. 2006. “Estimating the Returns to Education: Account- rea.” Policy Research Working Paper 3689. ing for Heterogeneity in Ability.” Policy Research Working Ostby, Gudrun. 2007. “Horizontal Inequalities, Political Environ- Paper 4040. ment, and Civil Confl ict: Evidence from 55 Developing Coun- Patrinos, Harry Anthony, and Chris Sakellariou. 2004. “Eco- tries, 1986-2003.” Policy Research Working Paper 4193. nomic Volatility and Returns to Education in Venezuela: Ouda, Samiha A., Samia M. El-Marsafawy, and Helmy M. Eid. 1992-2002.” Policy Research Working Paper 3459. 2007. “Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change _____. 2004. “Schooling and Labor Market Impacts of a Natural on Agriculture in Egypt: A Ricardian Approach.” Policy Re- Policy Experiment.” Policy Research Working Paper 3460. search Working Paper 4293. Patrinos, Harry Anthony, Emmanuel Skoufias, and Trine Lunde. Oyefusi, Aderoju. 2007. “Oil and the Propensity to Armed Strug- 2007. “Indigenous Peoples in Latin America: Economic Op- gle in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria.” Policy Research portunities and Social Networks.” Policy Research Working Working Paper 4194. Paper 4227. Paci, Pierella, Martin J. Sasin, and Jos Verbeek. 2004. “Economic Pattanayak, Subhrendu K., Caroline van den Berg, Jui-Chen Growth, Income Distribution, and Poverty in Poland during Yang, and George Van Houtven. 2006. “The Use of Willing- Transition.” Policy Research Working Paper 3467. ness to Pay Experiments: Estimating Demand for Piped Pack, Howard, and Kamal Saggi. 2006. “The Case for Indus- Water Connections in Sri Lanka.” Policy Research Working trial Policy: A Critical Survey.” Policy Research Working Paper 3818. Paper 3839. Paxson, Christina, and Norbert Schady. 2005. “Cognitive De- Packard, Truman G. 2007. “Do Workers in Chile Choose Infor- velopment among Young Children in Ecuador: The Roles mal Employment? A Dynamic Analysis of Sector Choice.” of Wealth, Health and Parenting.” Policy Research Working Policy Research Working Paper 4232. Paper 3605. Palmade, Vincent. 2005. “Industry Level Analysis: The Way to _____. 2007. “Does Money Matter? The Effects of Cash Trans- Identify the Binding Constraints to Economic Growth.” Pol- fers on Child Health and Development in Rural Ecuador.” icy Research Working Paper 3551. Policy Research Working Paper 4226. Pang, Gaobo, Brian Pinto, and Marina Wes. 2007. “India Ris- Pelizzo, Riuccardo, and Rick Stapenhurst. 2004. “Tools for Leg- ing - Faster Growth, Lower Indebtedness.” Policy Research islative Oversight: An Empirical Investigation.” Policy Re- Working Paper 4241. search Working Paper 3388. Parrachino, Irene, Ariel Dinar, and Fioravante Patrone. 2006. Pelkmans-Balaoing, Annette O., and Miriam Manchin. 2007. “Cooperative Game Theory and Its Application to Natural, “Rules of Origin and the Web of East Asian Free Trade Environmental, and Water Resource Issues: 3. Application to Agreements.” Policy Research Working Paper 4273. Water Resources.” Policy Research Working Paper 4074. Perotti, Enrico. 2004. “State Ownership - A Residual Role?” Parrachino, Irene, Stefano Zara, and Fioravante Patrone. 2006. Policy Research Working Paper 3407. “Cooperative Game Theory and Its Application to Natural, Peterson, George E. 2006. “Land Leasing and Land Sale as an Environmental, and Water Resource Issues: 1. Basic Theo- Infrastructure-Financing Option.” Policy Research Working ry.” Policy Research Working Paper 4072. Paper 4043. Parsons, Christopher R., Ronald Skeldon, Terrie L. Walmsley, Pierre, Gaelle, and Stefano Scarpetta. 2004. “Employment Reg- and L. Alan Winters. 2007. “Quantifying International Mi- ulations through the Eyes of Employers - Do They Matter gration: A Database of Bilateral Migrant Stocks.” Policy Re- and How Do Firms Respond to Them?” Policy Research search Working Paper 4165. Working Paper 3463. Paternostro, Stefano, Anand Rajaram, and Erwin R. Tiongson. Pitigala, Nihal. 2005. “What Does Regional Trade in South Asia 2005. “How Does the Composition of Public Spending Mat- Reveal about Future Trade Integration? Some Empirical ter?” Policy Research Working Paper 3555. Evidence.” Policy Research Working Paper 3497.

253 Poh Kam Wong, Yuen Ping Ho, and Annette Singh. 2005. “Sin- Ravallion, Martin. 2004. “Looking beyond Averages in the Trade gapore as an Innovative City in East Asia: An Explorative and Poverty Debate.” Policy Research Working Paper 3461. Study of the Perspectives of Innovative Industries.” Policy _____. 2005. “Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs.” Policy Re- Research Working Paper 3568. search Working Paper 3625. Porto, Guido G. 2004. “Informal Export Barriers and Poverty.” _____. 2005. “Inequality Is Bad for the Poor.” Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 3354. Working Paper 3677. _____. 2005. “Estimating Household Responses to Trade Re- _____. 2005. “On the Contribution of Demographic Change to forms: Net Consumers and Net Producers in Rural Mexico.” Aggregate Poverty Measures for the Developing World.” Policy Research Working Paper 3695. Policy Research Working Paper 3580. Powell, Andrew. 2004. “Basel II and Developing Countries: Sail- _____. 2005. “A Poverty-Inequality Trade-off?” Policy Research ing through the Sea of Standards.” Policy Research Working Working Paper 3579. Paper 3387. _____. 2007. “Geographic Inequity in a Decentralized Anti- Powell, Andrew, Nataliya Mylenko, Margaret Miller, and Giovan- Poverty Program: A Case Study of China.” Policy Research ni Majnoni. 2004. “Improving Credit Information, Bank Reg- Working Paper 4303. ulation, and Supervision: On the Role and Design of Public Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2004. “China’s (Uneven) Credit Registries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3443. Progress against Poverty.” Policy Research Working Paper Pushak, Taras, Erwin R. Tiongson, and Aristomene Varoudakis. 3408. 2007. “Public Finance, Governance, and Growth in Transi- Ravallion, Martin, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. 2007. tion Economies: Empirical Evidence from 1992–2004.” Pol- “New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty.” icy Research Working Paper 4255. Policy Research Working Paper 4199. Raballand, Gael, and Enrique Aldaz-Carroll. 2005. “How Do Ravallion, Martin, and Michael Lokshin. 2004. “Gainers and Differing Standards Increase Trade Costs? The Case of Pal- Losers from Trade Reform in Morocco.” Policy Research lets.” Policy Research Working Paper 3519. Working Paper 3368. Raddatz, Claudio. 2005. “Are External Shocks Responsible for _____. 2005. “Lasting Local Impacts of an Economywide Cri- the Instability of Output in Low-Income Countries?” Policy sis.” Policy Research Working Paper 3503. Research Working Paper 3680. _____. 2005. “Searching for the Economic Gradient in Self-As- Rahardja, Sjamsu. 2007. “Big Dragon, Little Dragons: China’s sessed Health.” Policy Research Working Paper 3698. Challenge to the Machinery Exports of Southeast Asia.” _____. 2005. “Who Cares about Relative Deprivation?” Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4297. Research Working Paper 3782. Raich, Uri. 2005. “Fiscal Determinants of Empowerment.” Poli- Ravallion, Martin, Johan Mistiaen, and Anton Korinek. 2005. “An cy Research Working Paper 3705. Econometric Method of Correcting for Unit Nonresponse Raleigh, Clionadh. 2007. “Civil War Risk in Democratic and Bias in Surveys.” Policy Research Working Paper 3711. Non-Democratic Neighborhoods.” Policy Research Working Ravallion, Martin, and Dominique van de Walle. 2006. “Does Paper 4260. Rising Landlessness Signal Success or Failure for Vietnam’s Rao, Vijayendra. 2005. “Symbolic Public Goods and the Coordi- Agrarian Transition?” Policy Research Working Paper 3871. nation of Collective Action: A Comparison of Local Devel- Reina, Mauricio, and Sandra Zuluaga. 2005. “Application of opment in India and Indonesia.” Policy Research Working Safeguards and Anti-Dumping Duties in Colombia.” Policy Paper 3685. Research Working Paper 3608. Rao, Vijayendra, and Ana Maria Ibañez. 2005. “The Social Im- Reinikka, Ritva S., and Jakob Svensson. 2005. “Working for pact of Social Funds in Jamaica: A ‘Participatory Economet- God? Evaluating Service Delivery of Religious Not-for- ric’ Analysis of Targeting, Collective Action, and Participa- Profit Health Care Providers in Uganda.” Policy Research tion in Community-Driven Development.” Policy Research Working Paper 3058. Working Paper 2970. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Richter, Kaspar. 2005. “Well-Being during a Time of Change: Ratha, Dilip, Prabal De, and Sanket Mohapatra. 2007. “Shadow Timor-Leste on the Path to Independence.” Policy Research Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries.” Pol- Working Paper 3488. icy Research Working Paper 4269. _____. 2006. “Thailand’s Growth Path: from Recovery to Pros- Ratha, Dilip, and Suhas L. Ketkar. 2004. “Development Finance perity.” Policy Research Working Paper 3912. via Diaspora Bonds Track Record and Potential.” Policy Re- Robalino, David A., and Andras Bodor. 2006. “On the Financial search Working Paper 4311. Sustainability of Earnings-Related Pension Schemes with

254 ‘Pay-as-You-Go’ Financing and the Role of Government In- Sambanis, Nicholas. 2007. “Short-Term and Long-Term Ef- dexed Bonds.” Policy Research Working Paper 3966. fects of United Nations Peace Operations.” Policy Research Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, and Sherman Robinson. 2005. “The Working Paper 4207. Social Impact of a WTO Agreement in Indonesia.” Policy Saphores, Jean-Daniel, Jeffrey R. Vincent, Valy Marochko, Ioan Research Working Paper 3747. Abrudan, Laura Bouriaud, and Clifford Zinnes. 2006. “De- Rocha, Roberto, Marco Morales, and Craig Thorburn. 2006. “An tecting Collusion in Timber Auctions: An Application to Ro- Empirical Analysis of the Annuity Rate in Chile.” Policy Re- mania.” Policy Research Working Paper 4105. search Working Paper 3929. Sasin, Marcin J., and David McKenzie. 2007. “Migration, Remit- Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, and William Maloney. 2007. “Innova- tances, Poverty, and Human Capital: Conceptual and Em- tion Shortfalls.” Policy Research Working Paper 4283. pirical Challenges.” Policy Research Working Paper 4272. Roe, Terry, Ariel Dinar, Yacov Tsur, and Diao Xinshen. 2005. Savanti, Maria Paula, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. 2005. “Rising “Feedback Links between Economy-wide and Farm-level Returns to Schooling in Argentina, 1992-2002: Productivity Policies: Application to Irrigation Water Management in Mo- or Credentialism?” Policy Research Working Paper 3714. rocco.” Policy Research Working Paper 3550. Schady, Norbert. 2006. “Early Childhood Development in Latin Rojas, Gabriel V. Montes, William Maloney, and Kishore America and the Caribbean.” Policy Research Working Pa- Gawande. 2007. “Can Foreign Lobbying Enhance Develop- per 3869. ment? The Case of Tourism in the Caribbean.” Policy Re- Schady, Norbert, and Maria Caridad Araujo. 2006. “Cash Trans- search Working Paper 4275. fers, Conditions, School Enrollment, and Child Work: Evi- Ronchi, Loraine. 2006. “Fairtrade and Market Failures in Ag- dence from a Randomized Experiment in Ecuador.” Policy ricultural Commodity Markets.” Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 3930. Paper 4011. Schiantarelli, Fabio. 2005. “Product Market Regulation and Rosero, Jose, and Norbert Schady. 2007. “Are Cash Transfers Macroeconomic Performance: A Review of Cross-Country Made to Women Spent Like Other Sources of Income?” Evidence.” Policy Research Working Paper 3770. Policy Research Working Paper 4282. Schiff, Maurice. 2004. “On the Inefficiency of Inequality.” Poli- Roy, Jayanta, and Shweta Bagai. 2005. “Key Issues in Trade Fa- cy Research Working Paper 3360. cilitation: Summary of World Bank/European Union Work- _____. 2005. “Brain Gain: Claims about Its Size and Impact on shops in Dhaka and Shanghai in 2004.” Policy Research Welfare and Growth Are Greatly Exaggerated.” Policy Re- Working Paper 3703. search Working Paper 3708. Rutherford, Thomas, and David Tarr. 2006. “Regional Impacts _____. 2006. “Substitution in Markusen’s Classic Trade and Fac- of Russia’s Accession to the World Trade Organization.” Pol- tor Movement Complementarity Models.” Policy Research icy Research Working Paper 4015. Working Paper 3974. Rutherford, Thomas, David Tarr, and Oleksandr Shepotylo. 2005. Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang. 2004. “North-South Tech- “The Impact on Russia of WTO Accession and the Doha nology Diffusion, Regional Integration, and the Dynamics of Agenda: The Importance of Liberalization of Barriers against the Natural Trading Partners Hypothesis.” Policy Research Foreign Direct Investment in Services for Growth and Pov- Working Paper 3434. erty Reduction.” Policy Research Working Paper 3725. Schipper, Youdi, and Johannes G. Hoogeveen. 2005. “Which _____. 2005. “Poverty Effects of Russia’s WTO Accession: Mod- Inequality Matters? Growth Evidence Based on Small Area eling ‘Real’ Households and Endogenous Productivity Ef- Welfare Estimates in Uganda.” Policy Research Working Pa- fects.” Policy Research Working Paper 3473. per 3592. Rutkowski, Jan. 2006. “Labor Market Developments during Eco- Seo, Niggol, and Robert Mendelsohn. 2007. “An Analysis of nomic Transition.” Policy Research Working Paper 3894. Crop Choice: Adapting to Climate Change in Latin Ameri- Saez, Sebastian. 2005. “Keeping Animal Spirits Asleep: The can Farms.” Policy Research Working Paper 4162. Case of Chile.” Policy Research Working Paper 3615. _____. 2007. “An Analysis of Livestock Choice: Adapting to Cli- Sakho, Yaye Seynabou. 2006. “Contagion and Firms’ Interna- mate Change in Latin American Farms.” Policy Research tionalization in Latin America: Evidence from Mexico, Bra- Working Paper 4164. zil, and Chile.” Policy Research Working Paper 4076. _____. 2007. “A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Salinas, Gonzalo, and Ataman Aksoy. 2006. “Growth before Change on Latin American Farms.” Policy Research Work- and after Trade Liberalization.” Policy Research Working ing Paper 4163. Paper 4062. Serneels, Pieter, Magnus Lindelow, Jose Garcia-Montalvo, and

255 Abigail Barr. 2005. “For Public Service or Money: Under- _____. 2006. “Exploring the Linkages between Poverty, Ma- standing Geographical Imbalances in the Health Workforce.” rine Protected Area Management, and the Use of Destruc- Policy Research Working Paper 3686. tive Fishing Gear in Tanzania.” Policy Research Working Seshan, Ganesh. 2005. “The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Paper 3831. Household Welfare in Vietnam.” Policy Research Working Silva, Patricia, Irina Klytchnikova, and Dragana Radevic. Paper 3541. 2007. “Poverty and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Shah, Anwar. 2005. “Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Perfor- Price Reforms in Montenegro.” Policy Research Working mance.” Policy Research Working Paper 3786. Paper 4127. _____. 2005. “A Framework for Evaluating Alternate Institution- Silva, Peri. 2005. “The Role of Importers and Exporters in the al Arrangements for Fiscal Equalization Transfers.” Policy Determination of the U.S. Tariff Preferences Granted to Research Working Paper 3785. Latin America.” Policy Research Working Paper 3518. _____. 2006. “Corruption and Decentralized Public Gover- Sirtaine, Sophie. 2006. “Access to Finance by Chilean Corpora- nance.” Policy Research Working Paper 3824. tions.” Policy Research Working Paper 3845. _____. 2006. “A Practitioner’s Guide to Intergovernmental Fis- Skamnelos, Ilias, and Sophie Sirtaine. 2007. “Credit Growth in cal Transfers.” Policy Research Working Paper 4039. Emerging Europe: A Cause for Stability Concerns?” Policy Shah, Anwar, and Chunli Shen. 2006. “Reform of the Inter- Research Working Paper 4281. governmental Transfer System in China.” Policy Research Skoufias, Emmanuel, and Vincenzo di Maro. 2006. “Conditional Working Paper 4100. Cash Transfers, Adult Work Incentives, and Poverty.” Policy Shalizi, Zmarak. 2006. “Addressing China’s Growing Water Research Working Paper 3973. Shortages and Associated Social and Environmental Conse- Skoufias, Emmanuel, and Joseph Shapiro. 2006. “Evaluating the quences.” Policy Research Working Paper 3895. Impact of Mexico’s Quality Schools Program: The Pitfalls _____. 2007. “Energy and Emissions: Local and Global Effects of Using Nonexperimental Data.” Policy Research Working of the Rise of China and India.” Policy Research Working Paper 4036. Paper 4209. Sohnesen, Thomas Pave, and Andreas Blom. 2005. “Is Formal Shalizi, Zmarak, and Franck Lecocq. 2007. “Balancing Expen- Lifelong Learning a Profitable Investment for All of Life? ditures on Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change: How Age, Education Level, and Flexibility of Provision Af- An Exploration of Issues Relevant to Developing Coun- fect Rates of Return to Adult Education in Colombia.” Poli- tries.” Policy Research Working Paper 4299. cy Research Working Paper 3800. Shankar, Rashmi. 2005. “Insurance and Liquidity: Panel Evi- Solo, Tova Maria, and Astrid Manroth. 2006. “Access to Financial dence.” Policy Research Working Paper 3648. Services in Colombia: The ‘Unbanked’ in Bogota.” Policy Sharma, Siddharth , and Mehnaz Safavian. 2007. “When Do Research Working Paper 3834. Creditor Rights Work?” Policy Research Working Paper Soloaga, Isidro, John S. Wilson, and Alejandro Mejia. 2006. “Mov- 4296. ing Forward Faster: Trade Facilitation Reform and Mexican Shepherd, Ben, and John S. Wilson. 2006. “Road Infrastructure Competitiveness.” Policy Research Working Paper 3953. in Europe and Central Asia: Does Network Quality Affect Sorge, Marco, and Chendi Zhang. 2007. “Credit Information Trade?” Policy Research Working Paper 4104. Quality and Corporate Debt Maturity: Theory and Evi- Shepotylo, Oleksandr, and David Tarr. 2007. “The Structure of dence.” Policy Research Working Paper 4239. Import Tariffs in the Russian Federation: 2001-05.” Policy Stapenhurst, Rick, Vinod Sahgal, William Woodley, and Riccardo Research Working Paper 4265. Pelizzo. 2005. “Scrutinizing Public Expenditures: Assessing Shi, Anqing. 2006. “Migration in Towns in China, a Tale of the Performance of Public Accounts Committees.” Policy Three Provinces: Evidence from Preliminary Tabulations of Research Working Paper 3613. the 2000 Census.” Policy Research Working Paper 3890. Stephanou, Constantinos. 2005. “Supervision of Financial Con- Siegel, Paul B. 2005. “Using an Asset-Based Approach to Identi- glomerates: The Case of Chile.” Policy Research Working fy Drivers of Sustainable Rural Growth and Poverty Reduc- Paper 3553. tion in Central America: A Conceptual Framework.” Policy Stephanou, Constantinos, and Juan Carlos Mendoza. 2005. Research Working Paper 3475. “Credit Risk Measurement under Basel II: An Overview and Silva, Patricia. 2005. “Environmental Factors and Children’s Implementation Issues for Developing Countries.” Policy Malnutrition in Ethiopia.” Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 3556. Paper 3489. Stephanou, Constantinos, and Emanuel Salinas Munoz. 2007.

256 “Financing of the Private Sector in Mexico, 2000-05: Evo- shape Expenditures in Rural Households? Evidence from lution, Composition, and Determinants.” Policy Research Mexico.” Policy Research Working Paper 3842. Working Paper 4264. Thorburn, Craig, Roberto Rocha, and Marco Morales. 2006. “An Stern, Jon, and John Cubbin. 2005. “Regulatory Effectiveness: Analysis of Money’s Worth Ratios in Chile.” Policy Research The Impact of Regulation and Regulatory Governance Ar- Working Paper 3926. rangements on Electricity Industry Outcomes.” Policy Re- Thorn, Kristian, Lauritz Holm-Nielsen, and Jette Samuel search Working Paper 3536. Jeppesen. 2004. “Approaches to Results-Based Funding in Stifel, David, and Luc Christiaensen. 2006. “Tracking Poverty Tertiary Education: Identifying Finance Reform Options for over Time in the Absence of Comparable Consumption Chile.” Policy Research Working Paper 3436. Data.” Policy Research Working Paper 3810. Thorn, Kristian, and Maarja Soo. 2006. “Latin American Univer- Stillman, Steven, David McKenzie, and John Gibson. 2007. “Mi- sities and the Third Mission: Trends, Challenges, and Policy gration and Mental Health: Evidence from a Natural Experi- Options.” Policy Research Working Paper 4002. ment.” Policy Research Working Paper 4138. Tran, Ngoc Ca. 2006. “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Subramanian, Uma, William P. Anderson, and Kihoon Lee. 2005. Economies in Asia: The Case of Vietnam.” Policy Research “Measuring the Impact of the Investment Climate on Total Working Paper 3949. Factor Productivity: The Cases of China and Brazil.” Policy van de Walle, Dominique. 2005. “Do Services and Transfers Research Working Paper 3792. Reach Morocco’s Poor? Evidence from Poverty and Spend- Subramanian, Uma, and Matthias Matthijs. 2007. “Can Sub-Sa- ing Maps.” Policy Research Working Paper 3478. haran Africa Leap into Global Network Trade?” Policy Re- van de Walle, Dominique, and Dorothyjean Cratty. 2005. “Do search Working Paper 4112. Donors Get What They Paid For? Micro Evidence on the Suescun, Rodrigo. 2005. “Fiscal Space for Investment in Infra- Fungibility of Development Project Aid.” Policy Research structure in Colombia.” Policy Research Working Paper 3629. Working Paper 3542. _____. 2007. “The Size and Effectiveness of Automatic Fiscal van de Walle, Dominique, and Ren Mu. 2007. “Fungibility and Stabilizers in Latin America.” Policy Research Working Pa- the Flypaper Effect of Project Aid: Micro-Evidence for Viet- per 4244. nam.” Policy Research Working Paper 4133. Swift, Zhicheng Li. 2006. “Managing the Effects of Tax Expen- Van Horen, Neeltje. 2007. “Customer Market Power and the ditures on National Budgets.” Policy Research Working Pa- Provision of Trade Credit: Evidence from Eastern Europe per 3927. and Central Asia.” Policy Research Working Paper 4284. Takeuchi, Akie, Maureen Cropper, and Antonio Bento. 2006. van Ours, Jan C., and Milan Vodopivec. 2006. “Duration of Un- “The Impact of Policies to Control Motor Vehicle Emissions employment Benefits and Quality of Post-Unemployment in Mumbai, India.” Policy Research Working Paper 4059. Jobs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.” Policy Re- _____. 2006. “The Welfare Effects of Slum Improvement Pro- search Working Paper 4031. grams: The Case of Mumbai.” Policy Research Working Pa- van Ryneveld, Philip. 2006. “Mobilizing Urban Infrastructure per 3852. Finance within a Responsible Fiscal Framework: South Afri- Taliercio, Robert Jr. 2004. “Designing Performance: The Semi- can Case.” Policy Research Working Paper 4042. Autonomous Revenue Authority Model in Africa and Latin Verme, Paolo. 2006. “Constraints to Growth and Job Creation in America.” Policy Research Working Paper 3423. Low-Income Commonwealth of Independent States Coun- Tan, Hong, and Gladys Lopez Acevedo. 2005. “Evaluating Train- tries.” Policy Research Working Paper 3893. ing Programs for Small and Medium Enterprises: Lessons Vermeersch, Christel, and Michael Kremer. 2005. “School from Mexico.” Policy Research Working Paper 3760. Meals, Educational Achievement, and School Competition: Tan, Hong, Yevgeniya Savchenko, Vladimir Gimpelson, Ros- Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation.” Policy Research tislav Kapelyushnikov, and Anna Lukyanova. 2007. “Skills Working Paper 3523. Shortages and Training in Russian Enterprises.” Policy Re- Verner, Dorte. 2004. “Poverty in the Brazilian Amazon: An As- search Working Paper 4222. sessment of Poverty Focused on the State of Para.” Policy Tarr, David, and Giorgio Barba Navaretti. 2005. “Introduction Research Working Paper 3357. and Summary to the Handbook of Trade Policy and WTO _____. 2005. “Activities, Employment, and Wages in Rural and Accession for Development in Russia and the CIS.” Policy Semi-Urban Mexico.” Policy Research Working Paper 3561. Research Working Paper 3726. _____. 2005. “Poverty in Rural and Semi-Urban Mexico during Taylor, J. Edward, and Jorge Mora. 2006. “Does Migration Re- 1992–2002.” Policy Research Working Paper 3576.

257 _____. 2006. “Labor Markets and Income Generation in Rural Warlters, Michael, and Emmanuelle Auriol. 2005. “The Margin- Argentina.” Policy Research Working Paper 4095. al Cost of Public Funds in Africa.” Policy Research Working _____. 2006. “Rural Poor in Rich Rural Areas: Poverty in Rural Paper 3679. Argentina.” Policy Research Working Paper 4096. Watkins, Alfred, and Natalia Agapitova. 2004. “Creating a 21st Verner, Dorte, and Mette Verner. 2005. “Economic Impacts of Century National Innovation System for a 21st Century Lat- Professional Training in the Informal Sector: The Case of vian Economy.” Policy Research Working Paper 3457. the Labor Force Training Program in Côte d’Ivoire.” Policy Webb, Richard, Josefina Camminati, and Raul Leon Thorne. Research Working Paper 3668. 2005. “Antidumping Mechanisms and Safeguards in Peru.” Vincelette, Gallina Andronova, and Iglika Vassileva. 2006. “Un- Policy Research Working Paper 3658. tangling the Maze of European Union Funds to Bulgaria.” Weiping, Wu. 2005. “Dynamic Cities and Creative Clusters.” Policy Research Working Paper 3962. Policy Research Working Paper 3509. Wagstaff, Adam. 2005. “Decomposing Changes in Income In- Wellenius, Bjorn, Vivien Foster, and Christina Malmberg-Calvo. equality into Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution and 2004. “Private Provision of Rural Infrastructure Services: Com- Reranking, with Applications to China and Vietnam.” Policy peting for Subsidies.” Policy Research Working Paper 3365. Research Working Paper 3559. Wellenius, Bjorn, Juan Galarza, and Boutheina Guermazi. 2005. _____. 2005. “The Economic Consequences of Health Shocks.” “Telecommunications and the World Trade Organization: Policy Research Working Paper 3644. 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266 ______. World Bank’s Global HIV/AIDS Program of Action. Wash- Ali, Mubarik. 2006. “Horticulture Revolution for the Poor: Na- ington, D.C.: World Bank. ture, Challenges and Opportunities.” Background Paper for ______. World Development Report 1978-2006 with Selected World the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Indicators 2005: Indexed Omnibus CD-ROM Edi- Washington, D.C. tion. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Anderson, Jock R. 2007. “Agricultural Advisory Services.” Back- ______. World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development. ground Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and New York, N.Y.: Oxford D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. University Press. Andersson, Martin, and Christer Gunnarsson. “Egalitarianism ______. 2004. Addressing HIV/AIDS in East Asia and the Pacific. in the Process of Modern Economic Growth: The Case of Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Sweden.” Background Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, ______. Decentralization in Madagascar. Washington, D.C.: World Washington, D.C. Bank. Anríquez, Gustavo, and Genny Bonomi. 2007. “Long-Term ______. Doing Business in 2005: Removing Obstacles to Growth. Farming and Rural Demographic Trends.” Background Pa- Washington, D.C.: World Bank. per for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ______. Global Economic Prospects 2005: Trade, Regionalism, and Arjona, Ana. 2007. “Understanding Recruitment in Civil Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Wars.” Background Note for WDR 2007. World Bank, ______. Household Risk Management and Social Protection in Chile. Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Baffes, John. 2006. “The Political Economy of the US Cotton ______. World Development Report 1978-2005 with Selected World Program.” Background Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Development Indicators 2004: Indexed Omnibus CD-ROM Edi- Washington, D.C. tion. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Barrientos, Armando. “Cash Transfer for Older People Reduce ______. World Development Report 2005: A Better Investment Cli- Poverty and Inequality.” Background Paper for WDR 2006. mate for Everyone. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and New World Bank, Washington, D.C. York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press. Basu, Kaushik. 2006. “How Poor Farmers Behave.” Background ______. Zambia: Public Expenditure Management and Financial Ac- Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. countability Review. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Basu, Kaushik, Hyejin Ku, and Homa Zarghamee. 2007. “De- World Bank and World Health Organization. 2006. High Level Fo- terminants of Youth Behavior and Outcomes: A Review of rum on the Health Millennium Development Goals: Selected Pa- Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications.” Background Pa- pers 2003–2005. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Geneva: per for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Health Organization. Behrman, Jere R., Alexis Murphy, Agnes Quisumbing, Usha Yusuf, Shahid, and Kaoru Nabeshima. 2006. China’s Development Ramakrishna, and Kathyrn Young. 2007. “What Is the Real Priorities. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Impact of Education on Age of First Parenthood and Family ______. 2006. How Universities Promote Economic Growth. Wash- Formation?” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, ington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C. Bell, Clive, Ramona Bruhns, and Hans Gerbasch. 2007. “Eco- G. World Development Report: Background Papers and nomic Growth, Education and Aids in the Kenya Model: Background Notes A Long-run Analysis.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Adams, Arvil Van. 2007. “The Role of Skills Development in the Berdegué, Julio, Alexander Schejtman, Manuel Chiriboga, Fe- Transition to Work: A Global Review.” Background Paper for lix Modrego, Romain Charnay, and Jorge Ortega. 2006. “To- WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. wards National and Global Agendas for Agriculture for De- Agricultural Research for Developing Countries (CIRAD). 2006. velopment: Latin America and the Caribbean.” Background “Experiences with the Development and Diffusion of Con- Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. servation Agriculture in Ashanti and Brong Ahafo Regions of Bezemer, Dirk, and Peter Hazell. 2006. “The Agricultural Exit Ghana.” Background Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Problem: An Empirical Assessment.” Background Paper for Washington, D.C. the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Alderman, Harold. 2006. “Managing Risk to Increase Efficiency Blum, Robert. 2007. “The Adolescent Brain.” Background Note and Reduce Poverty.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

267 Boix, Carles. “Spain: Development, Democracy and Equity.” Back- de Haan, Arjan. “Disparities within India’s Poorest Regions: ground Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Why Do the Same Institutions Work Differently in Differ- Borlaug, Norman, and C. Dowswell. 2006. “In Search of an Afri- ent Places?” Background Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, can Green Revolution: Looking beyond Asia.” Background Washington, D.C. Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Decker, Klaus, Siobhan McInerney-Lankford, and Caroline Bradford, Colin. 2007. “Food and Agriculture in Global Gover- Sage. 2006. “Human Rights and Equitable Development: nance.” Background Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, ‘Ideals’ Issues and Implications.” Background Paper for Washington, D.C. WDR 2006. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Buck, Steven, Céline Ferré, Rachel Gardner, Hideyuki Nakaga- Decker, Klaus, Caroline Sage, and Milena Stefanova. 2006. “Law wa, Lourdes Rodriguez-Chamussy, and Elisabeth Sadoulet. or Justice: Building Equitable Legal Institutions.” 2007. “Pattern of Rural Population Movements in Mexico, Background Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, Washington, Brazil, and Zambia.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Deshingkar, Priya, and John Farrington. 2006. “Rural Labour Buys, Piet, Celine Ferre, Peter Lanjouw, and Timothy Thomas. Markets and Migration in South Asia: Evidence from India 2007. “Rural Poverty and Geography: Towards Some Styl- and Bangladesh.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. ized Facts in the Developing World.” Background Paper for World Bank, Washington, D.C. the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Deshpande, Ashwini. “Affirmative Action in India and the Unit- Carneiro, Pedro, and Cristobal Ridao-Cano. 2007. “Heterogene- ed States.” Background Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, ity and Uncertainty in Returns to High School: The Case of Washington, D.C. Indonesia.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, Dorward, Andrew, Jonathan Kydd, and Colin Poulton. 2006. Washington, D.C. “Traditional Domestic Markets and Marketing Systems ______. 2007. “The Role of Short Term Liquidity Con- for Agricultural Products.” Background Paper for the WDR straints in Explaining Educational Investments in Indo- 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. nesia.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, Duflo, Esther, Pascaline Dupas, Michael Kremer, and Sam- Washington, D.C. uel Simei. 2007. “Education and HIV/AIDS Prevention: Chirayath, Leila, Caroline Sage, and Michael Woolcock. “Cus- Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Western Ke- tomary Law and Policy Reform: Engaging with the Plural- nya.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, ity of Justice Systems.” Background Paper for WDR 2006. Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Edmeades, Svetlana. 2007. “Main Messages and Supporting Ev- Chiriboga, Manuel, Romain Charnay, and Carol Chehab. 2006. idence for Public Expenditure on Agriculture.” Background “Women in Agriculture: Some Results of Household Sur- Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. veys Data Analysis.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. El-Cherkeh, Tanja, Elena Stirbu, and Andrea Tolciu. 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. “Youth Migration to Europe: Potential Impact on the La- Claessens, Stijn, and Enrico Perotti. “The Links between Fi- bour Market of the Countries of Origin.” Background Paper nance and Inequality: Channels and Evidence.” Background for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Escobar, German, Carlos Mladinic, Ramiro Sanhueza, and Oc- Damiani, Octavio. 2007. “Rural Development from a Territo- tavio Diaz. 2006. “Rural Territorial Development: The Milk rial Perspective: Case Studies in Asia and Latin Ameri- Territory in Southern Chile.” Background Paper for the ca.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Fares, Jean, and Claudio E. Montenegro. 2007. “Youth Unem- Daviron, Benoit, and Isabelle Vagneron. 2007. “Fair Trade: A ployment’s Dynamics: Evidence from Brazil (1978–2002) Quick Assessment.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. and Chile (1957–2005).” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Davis, Benjamin, Paul Winters, Gero Carletto, Katia Covarru- Fares, Jean, Claudio E. Montengro, Peter Orazem. 2007. “How bias, Esteban Quinones, Alberto Zezza, Kostas Stamoulis, Are Youth Faring in the Labor Market? Evidence from Genny Bonomi, and Stefania DiGiuseppe. 2007. “Rural In- around the World.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World come Generating Activities: A Cross Country Comparison.” Bank, Washington, D.C. Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Wash- ______. 2007. “Variation in the Returns to Schooling across ington, D.C.

268 and Within Developing Economies.” Background Paper for Hoff, Karla. “What Can Economists Explain by Taking into WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Account People’s Perceptions of Fairness? Punishing Fares, Jean, and Dhushyanth Raju. 2007. “Child Labor across Cheats, Bargaining Impasse, and Self-Perpetuating In- the Developing World: Patterns, Correlations and Deter- equalities.” Background Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, minants.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Hsieh, Chang-Tai, and Elisabeth Sadoulet. 2006. “Agriculture Fares, Jean, and Erwin Tiongson. 2007. “Entering the Labor and Development.” Background Note for the WDR 2008. Market and Early Mobility of Youth: Evidence form Panel World Bank, Washington, D.C. Estimates in Bosnia and Herzegovina.” Background Paper Jantti, Markus, Juho Saari, and Juhana Vartiainen. “Country Case for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Study: Finland--Combining Growth with Equity.” Back- Farnworth, Cathy, and Michael Goodman. 2007. “Growing Ethi- ground Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, Washington, D.C. cal Networks: The Fair Trade Market for Raw and Processed Just, David R. 2006. “A Review of Behavioral Risk Research with Agricultural Products (in Five Parts), with Associated Stud- Special Application to Developing Countries.” Background ies on Africa and Latin America.” Background Paper for the Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Karp, Larry. 2007. “Income Distribution and the Allocation of Filmer, Deon, Emmanuel Jimenez, and Annette Richter. “Stim- Public Agricultural Investment in Developing Countries.” ulating the Returns to Youth Opportunity Agency and Sec- Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Wash- ond Chances.” Background Note for WDR 2007. World ington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. ______. 2007. “Managing Migration from the Traditional to Galiani, Sebastián, Martin Rossi, and Ernesto Schargrodsky. Modern Sector in Developing Countries.” Background Pa- 2007. “Conscription and Crime.” Background Paper for per for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. La Cava, Gloria, Zeynep Ozbil, Sarah Michael, Elena Galliano, Gomart, Elizabeth. “Supporting Youth Citizenship: Review of Minna Mattero, and Mio Takada. “Youth and the Transition Evidence.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, to Citizenship: The Role of the State in Promoting Positive Washington, D.C. Youth Religious and Ethnic Identities and Young People’s Gorpe, Mehmet Ziya, Jean Fares, and Claudio E. Montenegro. Role in Peace-Building and Social Change.” Background Pa- “Public Wage Premium around the World.” Background Pa- per for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. per for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Lam, David. “The Demography of Youth in Developing Coun- Graham, Carol, and Matthew Hoover. 2007. “An Exploration tries and Its Economic Implications.” Background Paper for of Civic Activity in Latin America.” Background Note for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Lastarria-Cornhiel, Susana. 2006. “Feminization of Agriculture: Gutierrez, Juan Pablo. “Oportunidades for the Next Generation: Trends and Driving Forces.” Background Paper for the Effects of a Conditional Cash Transfer on the Wellbeing of WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mexican Youths.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Ligon, Ethan, and Elisabeth Sadoulet. 2007. “Estimating the Ef- Bank, Washington, D.C. fects of Aggregate Agricultural Growth on the Distribution Halewood, Naomi, and Charles Kenny. “Young People and Com- of Expenditures.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. munications Technologies.” Background Paper for WDR World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Llisterri, J., Hugo Kantis, Pablo Angelelli, and Luis Tejerina. Hasan, Amer. 2007. “Youth Disposition Towards Citizenship: Do “Youth Entrepreneurship in Latin America.” Background Constitutional Frameworks Matter?” Background Note for Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Lopez-Calva, Luis Felipe. 2007. “Migration in Rural Mexico: Hazell, Peter, Colin Poulton, Steve Wiggins, and Andrew Dor- From Tlapanalan to Manhatitlan.” Background Paper for the ward. 2006. “The Future of Small Farms: Synthesis Paper.” WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Wash- Louwaars, Niels P. 2006. “International Policy: The Seeds of ington, D.C. Confusion.” Background Note for the WDR 2008. World Henson, Spencer. 2006. “New Markets and Their Supporting Bank, Washington, D.C. Institutions: Opportunities and Constraints for Demand Lucero, Jose Antonio. “Indigenous Political Voice and the Strug- Growth.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, gle for Recognition in Ecuador and Bolivia.” Background Washington, D.C. Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, Washington, D.C.

269 Makki, Shiva S. 2007. “Global Actors and Market Concentra- Poulton, Colin. 2007. “Bulk Export Commodities: Trends and tion in Agribusiness.” Background Note for the WDR 2008. Challenges.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Mangiaterra, Viviana, and Gerold Vollmer. “Youth Consultations Pretty, Jules. 2006. “Agroecological Approaches to Agricultural for the WDR 2007: Synthesis Report of Country and Grass- Development.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World roots Consultations.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Quan, Julian, Junior Davis, and Felicity Proctor. 2006. “Rural Martínez Nogueira, Roberto. 2007. “New Roles of the Public Sec- Development from a Territorial Perspective: Lessons and tor for an Agriculture for Development Agenda.” Background Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Background Paper for the Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mattero, Minna. “Youth Policies and the Institutional Frame- Rao, Vijayendra. 2006. “Culture Is Changing in India’s Villages.” work.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World Bank, Wash- Background Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washing- ington, D.C. ton, D.C. McKenzie, David J. “A Profile of the World’s Young Developing ______. “Symbolic Public Goods and the Coordination of Col- Country Migrants.” Background Paper for WDR 2007. World lective Action: A Comparison of Local Development in In- Bank, Washington, D.C. dia and Indonesia.” Background Paper for WDR 2006. World Modrego, Félix, Romain Charnay, Esteban Jara, Hugo Contre- Bank, Washington, D.C. ras, and Cristian Rodriguez. 2006. “Small Farmers in Devel- Ravallion, Martin. 2006. “Why Should Poor People Care about oping Countries: Some Results of Household Survey Data Inequality?” Background Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, Analysis.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Ravallion, Martin, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. 2007. Moncrieffe, Joy. “Beyond Categories: Power, Recognition, and “New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty.” the Conditions for Equity.” Background Paper for WDR Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Wash- 2006. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ington, D.C. Otsuka, Keijiro. 2006. “The Asian Farm Size Dilemma.” Reardon, Thomas, and Julio Berdegué. 2006. “The Retail-Led Background Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Transformation of Agrifood Systems and Its Implications for Washington, D.C. Development Policies.” Background Paper for the WDR Otsuka, Keijiro, and Takashi Yamano. 2006. “The Role of Rural 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Labor Markets in Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Asia Ridao-Cano, Cristobal. 2007. “Vietnamese Youth: Managing and East Africa.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. Prosperity.” Background Note for WDR 2007. World Bank, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Pardey, Philip G., Julian Alston, Jenni James, Paul Glewwe, Rosegrant, Mark W., Siwa Msangui, Timothy Sulser, and Claudia Eran Binenbaum, Terry Hurley, and Stanley Wood. 2007. Ringler. 2006. “Future Scenarios for Agriculture: Plausible “Science, Technology and Skills.” Background Paper for the Futures to 2030 and Key Trends in Agricultural Growth.” WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Wash- Pehu, Eija, and Catherine R. Ragasa. 2007. “Agricultural Bio- ington, D.C. technology.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Ross, Michael. 2006. “Mineral Wealth and Equitable Devel- Bank, Washington, D.C. opment.” Background Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, Perlman, Janice E., and Sarah E. Anthony. “Citizenship and Washington, D.C. Youth in the Favelas of Rio de Janeiro.” Background Paper Sabates-Wheeler, Rachel. 2006. “Asset Inequality and Agricul- for WDR 2007. World Bank, Washington, D.C. tural Growth: How Are Patterns of Asset Inequality Estab- Pingle, Vibha. “Faith, Equity, and Development.” Background lished and Reproduced?” Background Paper for WDR 2006. Paper for WDR 2006. World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per. 2006. “The Organization of Interna- Saint, William. 2006. “Growing the People Who Can Make Af- tional Agricultural Research.” Background Note for the rican Agriculture Grow: Human Capital Development for WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. African Agriculture.” Background Note for the WDR 2008. Pomareda, Carlos. 2006. “Contract Agriculture: Lessons from World Bank, Washington, D.C. Experiences in Costa Rica.” Background Paper for the WDR Sautier, Denis, Hester Vermeulen, Michel Fok, and Estelle Bié- 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. nabe. 2006. “Case Studies of Agri-Processing and Contract

270 Agriculture in Africa.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. son.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Schejtman, Alexander, Julio Berdegué, and Félix Modrego. Zhang, Linxiu, Scott Rozelle, Chengfang Liu, Susan Olivia, Alan 2006. “Income Diversification through Agricultural Devel- de Brauw, and Qiang Li. 2007. “Feminization of Agriculture opment.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, in China: Debunking the Myth and Measuring the Conse- Washington, D.C. quence of Women Participation in Agriculture.” Background Sebastian, Kate. 2007. “GIS/Spatial Analysis Contribution to Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2008 WDR: Technical Notes on Data and Methodologies.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Wash- H. Discussion Paper Series, Occasional Paper Series, ington, D.C. Technical Series, Regional and Network Working Papers, Shepherd, Andrew, Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi, Sully Gariba, So- Conference Papers and Draft Papers phie Plagerson, and Abdul Wahab Musa. 2006. “Bridging the North-South Divide in Ghana.” Background Paper for WDR Acuña, Rodrigo. 2005. “Pension Reform in El Salvador.” So- 2006. World Bank, Washington, D.C. cial Protection Discussion Paper 0507. World Bank, Staatz, John, and Niama Nango Dembele. 2007. “Agriculture for Washington, D.C. Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Background Paper for Adam, Sarah. 2006. “Evaluating Social Fund Impact: A Toolkit the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. for Task Teams and Social Fund Managers.” Social Protec- Valdés, Alberto, and William Foster. 2006. “Making the La- tion Discussion Paper 0611. World Bank, Washington, D.C. bor Market a Way out of Rural Poverty. Rural and Agri- Adekson Adedayo, and Michael Woolcock. 2005. “Negotiating cultural Labor Markets in Latin America and the Carib- Globalization: How State-Society Relations and Economic bean.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Integration Shape Development Trajectories.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Mimeo. van de Walle, Dominique. 2006. “Impacts of Road Infrastruc- Ahmed, Shaikh S. 2005. “Delivery Mechanisms of Cash Transfer ture on Markets and Productivity.” Background Note for the Programs to the Poor in Bangladesh.” Social Protection Dis- WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. cussion Paper 0520. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Van der Meer, Cornelius L.J. 2006. “Agricultural Development, Alderman, Harold, Mariacristina Rossi, and H. Hoogeveen. 2006. Private Sector Development and Rural Livelihoods: About “Preschool Nutrition and Subsequent Schooling Attain- Synergies.” Background Note for the WDR 2008. World ment: Longitudinal Evidence from Tanzania.” World Bank, Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Walker, Thomas. 2007. “Participatory Varietal Selection, Partici- Anzalone, Stephen, and Andrea Bosch. 2005. “Improving Educa- patory Plant Breeding, and Varietal Change.” Background tional Quality with Interactive Radio Instruction: A Toolkit Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. for Policymakers and Planners.” Africa Region Human Devel- Wik, Mette, Prabhu Pingali, and Sumiter Broca. 2007. “Global opment Working Paper 52. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Agricultural Performance: Past Trends and Future Pros- Araujo, M. Caridad, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Peter Lanjouw, pects.” Background Paper for the WDR 2008. World Bank, and Berk Özler. 2005. “Local Inequality and Project Choice: Washington, D.C. An Application to Ecuador’s Emergency Social Investment Wilkinson, John, and Rudi Rocha. 2006. “Agri-Processing and Fund (1993–97).” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Developing Countries.” Background Paper for the WDR Arnold, Jens, Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2006. “The Productivity Effects of Services Liberalization: World Development Report 2007 Team. 2006. “Income and Evidence from the Czech Republic.” World Bank, Washing- Employment from a Cross-section of Household Surveys.” ton, D.C. Background Note for the WDR 2008. World Bank, Washing- Auerbach, P., M.E. Genoni, and Carmen Pagés. 2005. “Social Se- ton, D.C. curity Coverage and the Labor Market in Developing Coun- Zezza, Alberto, Paul Winters, Benjamin Davis, Gero Carletto, tries.” Working Paper 537. Inter-American Development Katia Covarrubias, Esteban Quinones, Kostas Stamoulis, Bank, Washington, D.C. Panayotis Karfakis, Luca Tasciotti, Stefania DiGiuseppe, Azzarri, Carlo, Calogero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, and Alberto and Genny Bonomi. 2007. “Rural Household Access to As- Zezza. 2005. “Poverty, Migration, and Agricultural Livelihoods sets and Agrarian Institutions: A Cross Country Compari- in Albania.” Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Baietti, Aldo, and Paolo Curiel. 2005. “Financing Water Supply

271 and Sanitation Investments: Estimating Revenue Require- terprises and Training Revisited: Do International Standards ments and Financial Sustainability.” Water Supply and Sani- Matter?” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0504. World tation Working Note 7. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Baietti, Aldo, and Peter Raymond. 2005. “Financing Water Sup- Bond, Stephen R., and Domenico Lomardi. 2006. “To Buy or ply and Sanitation Investments: Utilizing Risk Mitigation Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility, and Heterogeneous Instruments to Bridge the Financing Gap.” Water Supply Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data.” IMF Staff and Sanitation Sector Board Discussion Paper Series 4. Papers 53(3): 375–400. The International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Bannon, Ian. 2006. “Social Analysis in the Design of World Bank Bourguignon, François J. 2006. “Dynamics of Institutions, De- Education Projects.” Article Presented at a seminar on Ed- velopment and the Elites.” Beyond Transition Newsletter. ucation, Social Cohesion and Diversity, Washington, D.C., The World Bank, Washington, D.C. June 9, 2005. Bourguignon, François J. 2005. “Towards Achieving the MDGs: Bardasi, Elena, and Quentin Wodon. 2006. “Measuring Time Adressing Absorptive Capacity Constraints.” In ECOSOC. Poverty and Analyzing Its Determinants: Concepts and Achieving the International Agreed Development Goals. New Application to Guinea.” In Mark Blackden and Quentin York: United Nations. Wodon, eds., Gender, Time Use, and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Bourguignon, François J., Francisco H.G. Ferreira, and Phillippe Africa. Working Paper 73. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. G. Leite. 2005. “Why Are Income Distributions Different? A ______. 2006. “Poverty Reduction from Full Employment: Comparison of Brazil and the United States.” World Bank, A Time Use Approach.” In Mark Blackden and Quentin Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Wodon, eds., Gender, Time Use, and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Bourguignon, François J., and Danny Leipziger. 2006. “Toward a Africa. Working Paper 73. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. New Partnership Model – Aid, Growth and Poverty Reduc- Barron, Patrick, Rachael Diprose, and Michael Woolcock. 2005. tion.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. “Local Conflict and Community Development in Indonesia: Bourguignon, François, and Boris Pleskovic, eds. 2004. Annual Assessing the Impact of the Kecamatan Development Pro- World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2004: Acceler- gram.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. ating Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Barros, J. D. Aluisio, Cesar G. Victora, Juraci A. Cesar, Nelson ______. 2005. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Econom- Arns Neumann, and Andrea D. Bertoldi. 2005. “Brazil: Are ics 2005: Lessons of Experience. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. the Health and Nutrition Programs Reaching the Needi- ______. 2006. Annual World Bank Conference on Development est?” Health Nutrition and Policy Paper 9. The World Bank, Economics 2006: Growth and Integration. Washington, D.C.: Washington, D.C. World Bank. Bartelsman, Eric, John C. Haltiwanger, and Stefano Scarpetta. Bourguignon, François, Boris Pleskovic, and Yehuda Elkana, 2005. “Measuring and Analyzing Cross-Country Differences eds. 2007. Capacity Building in Economics Education and Re- in Firm Dynamics.” Paper presented for NBER Conference search. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Budapest, Hun- on Research in Income and Wealth (CRIW): Producer Dy- gary: Central European University Press. namics: New Evidence from Micro Data, April 8–9. Bourguignon, François, Boris Pleskovic, and Andre Sapir, eds. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2005. 2005. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics “SMEs, Growth, and Poverty.” NBER Working Paper 11224. 2005, Europe: Are We on Track to Achieve the Millennium Devel- National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass. opment Goals? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Betcherman, Gordon, and Niels-Hugo Blunch. 2006. “The Lim- Bourguignon, François, Boris Pleskovic, and Jacques van der ited Job Prospects of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Gaag, eds. 2006. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Two Cities in China.” Social Protection Discussion Paper Economics 2006, Europe: Securing Development in an Unstable 0613. World Bank, Washington, D.C. World. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bhatia, Mukhmeet. 2005. “Social Funds: A Review of Public Bourguignon, François J., and Mark Sundberg. 2006. “Absorp- Sector Management and Institutional Issues.” Social Protec- tive Capacity and Achieving the MDGs.” UNU-WIDER tion Discussion Paper 0508. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Research Paper 47. United Nations University, World Insti- Bloom, David, David Canning, and Kevin Chan. 2006. “Higher tute for Development Economics Research, New York. Education and Economic Development in Africa.” World ______. 2006. “Constraints to Achieving the MDGs with Scaled- Bank, Washington, D.C. Up Aid.” Working Papers 15. United Nations, Department of Blunch, Niels-Hugo, and Paula Castro. 2005. “Multinational En- Economics and Social Affairs, New York.

272 Brenton, Paul, and Çaglar Özden. 2005. “Trade Preferences for dence from Zambia.” Cambridge Working Paper in Econom- Apparel and the Role of Rules of Origin: The Case of Afri- ics 0514. University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics. ca.” Paper presented at the WTO Conference on Preference de Janvry, Alain, Frederico Finan, Donald Nelson, Elisabeth Erosion: Impacts and Policy Responses, Geneva, June. Sadoulet, Kathy Lindert, Bénédicte de la Brière, and Peter Budina, Nina, Gaobo Pang, and Sweder van Wijnbergen. 2006. Lanjouw. 2005. “Brazil’s Bolsa Escola Program: The Role “Nigeria--Dutch Disease or Debt Overhang? Diagnosing the of Local Governance in Decentralized Implementation.” Past, Lessons for the Future.” Paper presented at PRMED Social Protection Discussion Paper 0542. The World Bank, conference on Sovereign Debt and Development: Market Access Washington, D.C. Countries, World Bank, Washinton, D.C., October. de Janvry, Alain, Elisabeth Sadoulet, Pantelis Solomon, and Re- Cafiero, Carlo, and Renos Vakis. 2006. “Risk and Vulnerability nos Vakis. 2006. “Uninsured Risk and Asset Protection: Can Considerations in Poverty Analysis: Recent Advances and Conditional Cash Transfer Programs Serve as Safety Nets? “ Future Directions.” Social Protection Discussion Paper Social Protection Discussion Paper 0604. World Bank, Wash- 0610. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ington, D.C. Calderón, César. 2005. “Trade Openness and Real Effective de la Brière, Bénédicte, and Kathy Lindert. 2005. “Reforming Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel Data Evidence.” Working Brazil’s Cadastro Único to Improve the Targeting of the Paper 294. Central Bank of Chile. Bolsa Família Program.” Social Protection Discussion Paper Castañeda, Tarsicio. 2005. “Targeting Social Spending to the 0527. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Poor with Proxy–Means Testing: Colombia’s SISBEN Sys- de la Brière, Bénédicte, and Laura B. Rawlings. 2006. “Exam- tem.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0529. World Bank, ining Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: A Role for In- Washington, D.C. creased Social Inclusion?” Social Protection Discussion Pa- Castañeda, Tarsicio, Kathy Lindert, Bénédicte de la Brière, per 0603. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Luisa Fernandez, Celia Hubert, Osvaldo Larrañaga, Monica De Weerdt, Joachim. 2005. “Measuring Risk Perceptions: Why Orozco, and Roxana Viquez. 2005. “Designing and Imple- and How.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0533. World menting Household Targeting Systems: Lessons from Latin Bank, Washington, D.C. America and the United States.” Social Protection Discus- Dee, Philippa. 2005. “A Compendium of Barriers to Services Trade sion Paper 0526. World Bank, Washington, D.C. or Trade Services?” Australian National University. Mimeo. Cedlas, Leonardo Gasparini, Federico Gutierrez, Guido Porto, Deininger, Klaus, and Issa Faye. 2005. “Access to Extension and Alejandro Tamola, and Leopoldo Tornarolli. 2005. “Finance Impact of Extension in Rural Uganda.” Paper Presented at and Credit Variables in Household Surveys of Developing the Annual Meetings of the American Agriculture Econom- Countries.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. ic Association on Research and Extension in Developing Chandra, Vandana. 2007. “Export Diversification and Competi- Countries, Providence, Rhode Island, July 25. tiveness in Developing Countries: Evidence and Lessons del Ninno, Carlo, Paul A. Dorosh, and Kalanidhi Subbarao. 2005. from 6 Countries.” Washington, D.C., World Bank. “Food Aid and Food Security in the Short- and Long- Run: Cordella, Tito, Marta Ruiz-Arranz, and Luca Antonio Ricci. Country Experience from Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.” So- 2006. “Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the cial Protection Discussion Paper 0538. World Bank, Wash- Debt-Growth Link.” IMF Working Paper 06/161. The Inter- ington, D.C. national Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. del Ninno, Carlo, and Alessandra Marini. 2005. “Household’s Cordella, Tito, and Eduardo Levy Yeyati. 2005. “Country Insur- Vulnerability to Shocks in Zambia.” Social Protection Dis- ance Facility.” IMF Staff Papers 53: 85–106. The Internation- cussion Paper 0536. World Bank, Washington, D.C. al Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, and Enrica Detragiache. 2005. “Cross- Courtney, Charles, Godinot, Xavier, and Quentin Wodon. 2006. Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A “Participatory Approaches to Attacking Extreme Poverty: Survey.” IMF Working Paper 05–96. The International Mon- An Overview.” In Xavier Godinot and Quentin Wodon, eds., etary Fund, Washington, D.C. Participatory Approaches to Attacking Extreme Poverty: Case Duryea, Suzanne, Jasper Hoek, David Lam, and Deborah Le- Studies Led by the International Movement ATD Fourth World. vison. 2005. “Dynamics of Child Labor: Labor Force Entry Working Paper 77. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and Exit in Urban Brazil.” Social Protection Discussion Pa- Das, Jishnu, James Habyarimana, Pramila Krishna, and Stefan per 0513. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Dercon. 2005. “Teacher Shocks and Student Learning: Evi- Elmendorf, A. Edward, Cecilia Cabanero-Verzosa, Michele Lioy, and Kathryn LaRusso. 2005. “Behavior Change Communi-

273 cation for Better Health Outcomes in Africa: Experience and Grushka, Carlos O. 2006. “Social (In)security at the Beginning Lessons Learned from World Bank–financed Health.” Africa of the XXI Century: The Argentine Elderly and a Decade of Region Human Development Working Paper Series Series Increasing Exclusion.” Paper presented at the 28th Interna- 92. World Bank, Washington. D.C. tional Congress of Actuaries, Paris, May 28–June 2. Emerson, Patrick M., and André Portela Souza. 2005. “The In- Gunnarsson, Victoria, Peter F. Orazem, and Guilherme Sedlacek. ter-Generational Persistence of Child Labor.” Social Protec- 2005. “Changing Patterns of Child Labor around the World tion Discussion Paper 0515. World Bank, Washington, D.C. since 1950: The Roles of Income Growth, Parental Literacy Evenett, Simon. 2005. “Sticking to the Rules: Quantifying the and Agriculture.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0510. Market Access That Is Potentially Protected by WTO-Sanc- World Bank, Washington, D.C. tioned Trade Retaliation.” Yale Center for the Study of Glo- Hannum, Emily, and Jennifer Adams. 2005. “Structuring In- balization, New Haven, Connecticut. equality in Rural Chinese Communities: Schooling Environ- Fields, Gary S. 2005. “A Guide to Multisector Labor Market ment and Subsequent Enrollment.” Paper presented at the Models.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0505. World conference on Creating Poverty and Wealth in Contempo- Bank, Washington, D.C. rary China, Yale University, January. François, Joseph, and Julia Woerz. 2006. “Rags in the High Rent Helling, Louis, Rodrigo Serrano, and David Warren. 2005. District: Rhetoric and Reality in the Elimination of Textile “Linking Community Empowerment, Decentralized Gov- and Clothing Quotas.” CEPR Discussion Paper 5477. Lon- ernance, and Public Service Provision through a Local De- don: CEPR. velopment Framework.” Social Protection Discussion Paper Freund, Caroline. 2005. “Current Account Deficits in Industrial 0535. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Countries: The Bigger They Are, the Harder They Fall?” Hess, Ulrich C. 2005. “Managing Agricultural Production Risk: NBER Working Paper 11823. National Bureau of Economic Innovations in Developing Countries.” World Bank, Wash- Research, Cambridge, Mass. ington, D.C. ______. 2006. “Do Regional Trade Agreements Promote Exter- Hinz, Richard P., and Anca Mataoanu. 2005. “Pension Super- nal Trade Liberalization? Evidence from Latin America.” vision: Understanding International Practice and Country World Bank, Washington, D.C. Context.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0524. World Friedman, Jed, and Duncan Thomas. 2005. “Mental Health dur- Bank, Washington, D.C. ing a Crisis.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Hinz, Richard P., Asta Zviniene, and Anna-Marie Vilamovska. Gallaher, Mike. 2005. “A Technology White Paper on Improv- 2005. “The New Pensions in Kazakhstan: Challenges in ing the Efficiency of Social Safety Net Program Delivery Making the Transition.” Social Protection Discussion Paper in Low Income Countries: An Introduction to Available and 0537. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Emerging Mobile Technologies.” Social Protection Discus- Hoekman, Bernard. 2005. “Designing North-South Trade Agree- sion Paper 0522. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ments to Promote Economic Development.” Paper present- Ghobadi, Negar, Johannes Koettl, and Renos Vakis. 2005. ed at the International Trade Roundtable on the WTO at 10 “Moving Out of Poverty: Migration Insights from Rural Af- Years: The Regional Challenge to Multilateralism, Brussels, ghanistan.” AREU, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation June 27–28. Unit, Kabul. ______. “From Euro-Med Partnership to European Neighbour- Giné, Xavier, and Stefan Klonner. 2005. “Learning about One- hood: Deeper Integration a la carte and Economic Develop- self: Technology Financing in a Tamil Fishing Village.” ment.” Middle East and North Africa Working Papers 103. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Grabowsky, Mark, Nick Farrell, William Hawley, John Chimum- ______. “Preference Erosion and the Doha Development Agen- bwa, Theresa Nobiya, Mercy Ahun, Stefan Hoyer, Adam da.” Paper presented at the conference on Trade for Devel- Wolkon, and Joel Selanikio. 2005. “Ghana and Zambia: opment: The Future of Special and Differential Treatment Achieving Equity in the Distribution of Insecticide-Treat- of Developing Countries, IFRI, Paris, October 28. ed Bednets through Links with Measles Vaccination Cam- Hoff, Karla. 2005. “Comment on ‘Development Policy through paigns.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. the Lens of Psychology’ by Sendhil Mullainathan.” Annual Gragnolati, Michele, Meera Shekar, Monica Das Gupta, Caryn Bank Conference on Development Economics 2004. The Bredenkamp, and Yi-Kyoung Lee. 2005. “India’s Under- World Bank, Washington, D.C. nourished Children: A Call for Reform and Action.” HNP Holzmann, Robert. 2005. “Demographic Alternatives for Aging Discussion Paper 34638. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Industrial Countries: Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor

274 Force Participation, or Immigration.” Social Protection Dis- Tanzania.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0606. World cussion Paper 0540. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Holzmann, Robert, Johannes Koettl, and Taras Chernetsky. 2005. Kowalski, Przemek. 2005. “The Canadian Preferential Tariff Re- “Portability Regimes of Pension and Health Care Benefits gime and Potential Economic Impacts of Its Erosion.” Paper for International Migrants: An Analysis of Issues and Good presented at the International Symposium on ‘Preference Practices.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0519. World Erosion: Impacts and Policy Responses’ Geneva, June 13–14. Bank, Washington, D.C. Larrañaga, Osvaldo. 2005. “Focalización De Programas En Chile: Hoogeveen, Johannes, and Berk Özler. 2005. “Not Separate, Not El Sistema CAS.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0528. Equal: Poverty and Inequality in Post-Apartheid South Af- World Bank, Washington, D.C. rica.” William Davidson Institute Working Paper 739. Uni- Lecocq, Franck Michel. 2005. State and Trends of the Carbon Mar- versity of Michigan, Ann Arbor. ket - 2004. Working Paper 44. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Ilahi, Nadeem, Peter F. Orazem, and Guilherme Sedlacek. 2005. Lenneiye, N. Mungai. 2005. “Who Has the Yam, and Who Has “How Does Working as a Child Affect Wage, Income and the Knife? Social Action Funds and Decentralization in Ma- Poverty as an Adult?” Social Protection Discussion Paper lawi, Tanzania, and Uganda.” Social Protection Discussion 0514. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Paper 0518. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Kabbani, Nader, and Ekta Kothari. 2005. “Youth Employment in Limão, Nuno, and Kamal Saggi. 2005. “Tariff Retaliation versus the MENA Region: A Situational Assessment.” Social Protec- Financial Compensation of the Enforcement of Internation- tion Discussion Paper 0534. World Bank, Washington, D.C. al Trade Agreements.” CEPR Discussion Paper 5560. Centre Kaiser, Kai. 2005. “Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in for Economic Policy Research, London. Pakistan: Structural Challenges for the 2001 Devolution.” Lindert, Kathy. 2005. “Implementing Means-Tested Welfare Prepared for National Tax Association Meetings on Fiscal Systems in the United States.” Social Protection Discussion Decentralization and Intergovernmental Relations in Asia: Paper 0532. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Emerging Policies and Challenges Session, Miami, Novem- Lindert, Kathy, Emmanuel Skoufias, and Joseph Shapiro. 2006. ber 17–19. “Redistributing Income to the Poor and the Rich: Public Kenny, Charles. 2006. “Questioning the Monopoly-Supported Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbean. “ Social Protec- Postal USO in Developing Countries.” In Michael A. Crew tion Discussion Paper 0605. World Bank, Washington, D.C. and Paul R. Kleindorfer, eds., Progress toward Liberalization Luke, Nancy. 2006. “Economic Status, Transactional Sex, and of the Postal and Delivery Sector. Topics in Regulatory Eco- Risk Behavior in Urban Kenya.” Paper Presented at the An- nomics and Policy Series 49, Springer. nual Meetings of the Population Association of America, Khemani, Stuti. 2006. “Can Information Campaigns Overcome California, Los Angeles, March 30–April 1. Political Obstacles to Serving the Poor?” World Bank, Wash- Maloney, William F., and Andrés Rodríguez–Clare. 2005. “Inno- ington, D.C. Mimeo. vation Shortfalls.” Latin American Research Network Work- Knudsen, Odin K., and Pasquale Scandizzo. 2005. “Investment ing Paper 543. Inter-American Development Bank, Wash- as a Sequence of Options.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. ington, D.C. ______. 2005. “Trade Secrets, Patents, and Options.” World Mengistae, Taye, and Fraser Thompson. 2006. “Unbundling Bank, Washington, D.C. Location Effects in Productivity: The Case of Manufac- Koettl, Johannes, Robert Holzmann, and Stefano Scarpetta. turing Plants in Morocco.” Paper presented at the CSAE 2006. “The Relative Merits of Skilled and Unskilled Migra- conference on Reducing Poverty and Inequality: How Can tion, Temporary and Permanent Labor Migration, and Porta- Africa Be Included? St. Catherine’s College, Oxford, UK, bility of Social Security Benefits.” Social Protection Discus- March 19–21. sion Paper 0614. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Micco, A., and Carmen Pagés. 2006. “The Economic Effects of Kolev, Alex, and Catherine Saget. 2005. “Towards a Better Un- Employment Protection Laws, IZA.” Discussion Paper 2433. derstanding of the Nature, Causes and Consequences of IZA, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn. Youth Labor Market Disadvantage: Evidence for South-East Milanovic, Branko L. 2005. “Why Did the Poorest Countries Europe.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0502. World Fail to Catch Up?” Carnegie Working Paper 62. Carnegie Bank, Washington, D.C. Mellon, Center for Economic Development, Pittsburgh. Kondylis, Florence, and Marco Manacorda. 2006. “Youth in the Misra, Smita. 2006. “Economics of Scale in Water Pollution Labor Market and the Transition from School to Work in Abatement: A Case of Small-Scale Factories in an Industrial Estate in India.” In Suresh D. Tendulkar, Arup Mitra, K.R.

275 Narayanan, and Deb Kusum Das, eds., India: Industrialisa- at PRMED conference on Sovereign Debt and Develop- tion in a Reforming Economy: Essays for K.L. Krishna. New ment: Market Access Countries, World Bank, Washington, Delhi: Academic Foundation. D.C., October. Mistiaen, Johan. 2005. “Remittance and Migration Household Parent, Daniel. 2006. “Youth Labor Market in Burkina Faso: Survey Initiative: The Japan-Brazil Corridor.” World Bank, Recent Trends.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0607. Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mitra, Sophie. 2005. “Disability and Social Safety Nets in De- Peracchi, Franco, and Domenico Depalo. 2006. “Labor Market veloping Countries.” Social Protection Discussion Paper Outcomes of Natives and Immigrants: Evidence from the 0509. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ECHP.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0615. World Nabli, Mustapha, Jennifer Keller, Claudia Nassif, and Carlos Sil- Bank, Washington, D.C. va-Jauregui. 2005. “The Political Economy of Industrial Pol- Perry, Guillermo, Daniel Lederman, and Marcelo Olarreaga. icy in the Middle East and North Africa.” Presented at ECES 2006. “LAC Response to the Growth of China and India: Conference on ‘Rethinking the Role of the State: An Assess- Overview of Research Findings and Policy Implications.” ment of Industrial Policy in MENA.’ Cairo, November. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Nabli, Mustapha, and Carlos Silva-Jauregui. 2005. “Democracy Pritchett, Lant. 2005. “The Political Economy of Targeted Safe- for Better Governance and Higher Economic Growth in the ty Nets.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0501. World MENA Region?” Presented at the 14th International Eco- Bank, Washington, D.C. nomic Association World Congress, Marrakesh, Morocco, Au- Rajaram, Anand, and N. Roberto Zagha. 2006. “Fiscal Policy for gust 29–September 2. Growth and Development: An Interim Report.” World Bank, Neri, Marcelo Côrtes, Emily Gustafsson-Wright, Guilherme Sed- Washington, D.C. lacek, and Peter F. Orazem. 2005. “The Responses of Child Rasiah, Rajah. 2005. “Human Resources and Foreign Direct Labor, School Enrollment, and Grade Repetition to the Loss Investment with a Focus on the Electronics and Garment of Parental Earnings in Brazil, 1982–1999.” Social Protection Industries.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Discussion Paper 0512. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Rathjen, Annette. 2005. “Training Practices of German Enter- Ng, Francis K.T. 2005. “Kenya DTIS: Trade and Exports (Chap- prises in Developing Countries.” World Bank, Washington, ter 1).” World Bank, Washington, D.C. D.C. Ng, Francis K. T., and Alexander Yeats. 2005. “Kenya: Export Rofman, Rafael. 2005. “Social Security Coverage in Latin Amer- Prospects and Problems.” Africa Region Working Paper 90. ica.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0523. World Bank, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Olarreaga, Marcelo. 2005. “Market Access or Subsidies?” ID21 Roggero, P., R. Tarricone, et al. 2005. “Employment and Youth Insight 59, Institute of Development Studies, University with Disabilities: Sharing Knowledge and Practices – Report of Sussex. of the E-discussion on Youth & Disabilities.” World Bank, Orozco, Mónica, and Cecilia Hubert. 2005. “La Focalización Washington, D.C. en el Programa De Desarrollo Humano Oportunidades De Roitstein, Florencia. 2005. “Analysis of Corporate Social Re- Mexico.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. sponsibility Training Initiatives in Multinational Enterpris- Ouedraogo, Fatimata. 2005. “Landfill Gas Capture Opportunity- es: The Challenge of Localizing CSR.” World Bank, Wash- -Sub-Saharan Africa.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. ington, D.C. Pai, Yasue. 2006. “Comparing Individual Retirement Ac- Salcamoto, Junichi. 2005. “Japan’s Pension Reform.” Discussion counts in Asia: Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong and PRC.” Paper 0541. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Social Protection Discussion Paper 0609. World Bank, Sanchez, Mario A., Peter F. Orazem, and Victoria Gunnarsso. Washington, D.C. 2005. “The Effect of Child Labor on Mathematics and Lan- Palacios, Robert, and Oleksiy Sluchynsky. 2006. “Social Pen- guage Achievement in Latin America.” Social Protection sions Part I: Their Role in the Overall Pension System.” Discussion Paper 0516. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Discussion Paper 0601. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Schady, Norbert. 2005. “Do Macroeconomic Crises Affect Palacios, Robert, and Edward Whitehouse. 2006. “Civil-service Schooling and Child Health? Evidence from Peru.” World Pension Schemes around the World.” Social Protection Dis- Bank, Washington, D.C. cussion Paper 0602. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Schwarz, Anita M. 2006. “Pension System Reforms.” So- Pang, Gaobo, Brian Pinto, and Marina Wes. 2006. “India - East cial Protection Discussion Paper 0608. World Bank, Asian Growth, Latin American Deficits.” Paper presented Washington, D.C.

276 Sedlacek, Guilherme, Suzanne Duryea, Nadeem Ilahi, and International Handbook of the Inequality of Education.” Masaru Sasaki. 2005. “Child Labor, Schooling, and Poverty World Bank. Washington, D.C. in Latin America.” Social Protection Discussion Paper 0511. Vakis, Renos. 2006. “Complementing Natural Disasters Man- World Bank, Washington, D.C. agement: The Role of Social Protection.” Social Protection Sender, John, Christopher Cramer, and Carlos Oya. 2005. “Un- Discussion Paper 0543. World Bank, Washington, D.C. equal Prospects: Disparities in the Quantity and Quality of Valenzuela, Ernesto, and Ricardo Arguello. 2005. “Market Ac- Labour Supply in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Social Protection cess in the Western Hemisphere: Implications for the An- Discussion Paper 0525. World Bank, Washington, D.C. dean.” Borradores de Investigación 002308. Facultad Econo- Shetty, Sudhir. 2006. “Participatory Approaches to Attacking Ex- mia, Universidad del Rosario. treme Poverty: Foreword.” In Xavier Godinot and Quentin van Ours, Jan C., and Milan Vodopivec. 2005. “How Changes Wodon, eds., Participatory Approaches to Attacking Extreme Pov- in Benefits Entitlement Affect Job-Finding: Lessons from erty: Case Studies Led by the International Movement ATD Fourth the Slovenian ‘Experiment’.” Social Protection Discussion World. Working Paper 77. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Paper 0506. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Silva-Jauregui, Carlos. 2005. “Remittances and Microfinance in Vegas, Emiliana, and Ilana Umansky. 2005. “Improving Teaching MENA: Second Largest Source of External Funding in the and Learning through Effective Incentives: What Can We World as Development Tool.” Microfinance Maters, Issue 14. Learn from Education Reforms in Latin America?” World United Nations Capital Development Fund, New York. Bank, Washington, D.C. Stapenhurst, Rick, and Meaghan Campbell. 2005. “Developing Víquez, Roxana M. 2005. “Sistema de Identificación de la Po- Capacity Through Networks: Lessons from Anticorruption blación Objetivo: SIPO en Costa Rica.” Social Protection Parliamentary Coalitions.” Capacity Brief 10, The World Discussion Paper 0530. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Wheeler, David R., Kiran Pandey, and Ramesh Ramankutty. Steele, Diane. 2005. “Household Vulnerability and Children’s 2005. “Technical Paper on the GEF Resource Allocation Activities: Information Needed from Household Surveys to Framework.” Background Paper for the GEF 2005. World Measure Their Relationship.” Social Protection Discussion Bank, Washington, D.C. Paper 0517. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Wilhelm, Vera, and Ignacio Fiestas. 2005. “Exploring the Link Strukova, Elena, Alexander Golub, and Anil Markandya. 2006. between Public Spending and Poverty Reduction: Lessons “Air Pollution Costs in Ukraine.” Working Papers 120. from the 90s.” Working Paper 37252. World Bank, Washing- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. ton, D.C. Subbarao, Kalanidhi. 2005. “Ageing and Poverty in Africa and Winters, L. Alan, and Pedro M.G. Martins. 2005. “Beautiful but the Role of Social Pensions.” Social Protection Discussion Costly: Business Costs in Small Remote Economies.” Lon- Paper 0521. World Bank, Washington, D.C. don: The Commonwealth Secretariat. Tabor, Steve. 2005. “Community-based Health Insurance and Wodon, Quentin, and Kathleen Beegle. 2006. “Labor Shortages Social Protection Policy.” Discussion Paper 0503. World Despite Underemployment? Seasonality in Time Use in Ma- Bank, Washington, D.C. lawi.” In Mark Blackden and Quentin Wodon, eds., Gender, Taylor, J. Edward, and Jorge Mora. 2005. “Remittances, Inequal- Time Use, and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa. Working Paper ity and Poverty: Evidence from Rural Mexico.” Paper pre- 73. World Bank, Washington, D.C. sented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Yürekli, Ayda, F.S. Tetra Dewi, Joy de Beyer, A.H. Cornelia, and Annual Meeting, Providence, Rhode Island, July 24–27. Janet Hohnen. 2005. “New Ways of Helping Poor Smok- Thirumurthy, Harsha, Joshua Graff Zivin, and Markus Gold- ers Quit in Central Java, Indonesia.” Economics of Tobacco stein. 2006. “The Economic Impact of AIDS Treatment: Control Paper 24. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Labor Supply in Western Kenya.” NBER Working Paper Zezza, Alberto, Calogero Carletto, and Benjamin Davis. 2005. 11871. The National Bureau of Economic Research, Cam- “Moving Away from Poverty: A Spatial Analysis of Poverty bridge, Mass. and Migration in Albania.” ESA Working Paper 05–02. Food Thomas, Duncan, Elizabeth Frankenberg, Jed Friedman, and and Agriculture Organization, Washington, D.C. others. 2005. “Iron Deficiency and the Well-Being of Older Adults: Preliminary Results from a Randomized Nutrition Intervention.” World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Thomas, Vinod, and Yan Wang. 2005. “Overview Chapter for

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