2018 ACC COASTAL

1. Miami Fla. This just in, Mark Richt can coach! It wasn’t always pretty, but Miami survived many a close call to reach 10-0 before being upset at Pitt. There are roster holes that need fixing and players who need to take the next step but overall the Hurricanes may have more returning talent than almost anyone in the ACC not named Clemson. A 2nd consecutive Coastal title will be expected. AREAS TO WATCH: The DL lost three players to the NFL. LB depth is strong, so maybe they don’t drop much up front. The top five tacklers return and that can’t hurt. QB Rosier hit just 54% in ’17. Can he improve? A freshman replaces a pretty good kicker. The “turnover chain” was cute, leading to a +16 regular season ratio. I think the ratio will remain plus but Miami will likely lose some “free” points with a lower ratio. Remember, each turnover is worth about 3.75 points! Speaking of points, Miami may NOT have been as good as their ACC record from a year ago. They finished ACC play 7-1 but outscored opponents by just a margin of +67, 217-150. Normally 7-1 yields double that! ’18 PREVIEW: The season starts in Arlington where they face LSU. Richt would love to beat a team from the SEC. Toledo is decent and gets a rare host of a power five team. Still, they are weaker at many key positions this season so a Miami win is expected. I expect Miami to win their mid-week game hosting North Carolina but the games have been close, with the Tar Heels winning at Miami in ’16. How vulnerable is FSU in ’18? Miami has had numerous gut wrenching losses in this series but last year they got a very lucky last second win. I don’t like the placement of the game at rested Virginia. If the Cavs can do anything at home I think this could be dangerous for the ‘Canes. Both Miami and Boston College will be rested prior to the game at their place. BC has more depth than usual by ACC standards so maybe Miami just splits this game and the Virginia game. Miami had a lucky win vs. GT a year ago. Miami has had success at their place but this could be competitive. How good is this year’s version of VT’s vaunted defense? On paper the unit is thin. VT has won 9 of 12 hosting Miami but in ’14 Miami dominated them. The finale is hosting Pitt, the team that stunned the ‘Canes a year ago. BOTTOM LINE: Miami knows how to play defense with Richt in charge so if the offense can improve via the pass game and if kicking does not drop off then the ‘Canes are primed to flirt with 10-2 again vs. the weakened ACC talent base of many of their opponents. Still, as last year’s close calls and point ratio point out, the margin for error is slim. I think 10-2 is a reasonable goal, and a Coastal title an expected result. HANDICAPPING TIP: It’s not wise to go top heavy against a team like Miami and a coach like Richt, but I am likely to side with Virginia on 10/13 if the Cavs are off a win at NC St.

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2. The Hokies are 19-8 under Justin Fuente. Even with half of their starters gone they cannot be taken for granted. AREAS TO WATCH: Virginia Tech (VT) found a QB in freshman Josh Jackson. Now the once dangerous run game needs to improve. They ran just 3.9 per carry a year ago and less than that in the ACC. I’ll be charting progress all season long. Bud Foster has coached the defense for 22 seasons! In ’18 he’ll face one of his biggest challenges. Several key players are gone including impact LB . Three projected DB starters are off the team for various reasons. The DL has experience but without Edmunds I see a modest drop in run D figures. I’m not sure how to handle projected pass D numbers, as VT is typically elite in this area. For most of the past decade they’ve allowed under 50%, and about 47% the past five regular seasons. I’ll project 50.5% but would not be shocked if this area fell back even further. I think they will allow more splash plays. The special team unit is often elite. It slumped a bit in ’15 and ’16 but they brought in stud coach James Shibest, whose Memphis teams nd rd ranked 2 in the NCAA in each of his four seasons! VT responded to finish a mere 3 in ’17. This year only the punter returns. Like with Bud Foster, ’18 will be a challenge. ’18 PREVIEW: VT opens with a critical conference game at FSU (Monday night). The Hokies have won just 2 of 16 vs. FSU but even though this is a road game they have a good shot at a win vs. the new FSU staff. VT has stubbed their toe in the past with a short five day turnaround off a critical opening game but should beat 2-9 William and Mary. Conference play starts at Duke. Until ’17 games were very close. Special team play may be the deciding factor! VT beat Notre Dame in South Bend in ’16. The rematch is in Blacksburg and could also be close. Two situations may favor a letdown/upset the next week at North Carolina. The offense should be fine but defensive focus is critical. GT has been a thorn in VT’s side, winning 50% of the time at Blacksburg. Having 12 days to prep for their option attack is a plus. That is a Thursday game, meaning they have nine days to prepare for Boston College. Games vs. Pitt (road game) have been very close. That’s the theme for VT this year so a play or two in each game might decide things. VT has won 9 of 12 hosting Miami. Miami has the most talent in the Coastal so a 10th win is not a guarantee. BOTTOM LINE: Justin Fuente is an up and coming head coach who prepped under Gary Patterson at TCU and has 38 wins in four seasons (Memphis and VT). The defense is well-coached as is the special team unit, but the talent level in each area is weaker than usual. If I’m wrong about a possible win at FSU then the season will likely result in a minor bowl berth and the staff will likely focus on building for the future as opposed to the present. An opening day win keeps the focus on competing for the Coastal crown. Despite the personnel losses I think they finish 8-4, and maybe even 9-3. Readers need to monitor three areas: Run yards-per-carry, secondary play, and consistency on special team units. HANDICAPPING TIP: I love using long term situational factors for teams with established head coaches. VT rush data was 102-62 vs. the spread in ’s last 19 seasons. As per usual I did not use the data in Fuente’s initial season. Now after two years the data has proved unreliable. I see three possible “play against” spots in the 1st half of the schedule, including 9/22 at Old Dominion and 10/6 hosting Notre Dame. My preseason check list notes will help me determine if I pull the trigger. My 1st look is the dog in games 11/10 at Pitt and 11/17 vs. Miami.

3T. Pittsburgh made his mark by overseeing Michigan St’s fine defense. In three years as Pitt’s head coach the defense has had more downs than ups. Narduzzi has 21 wins at Pitt yet I’m not sure the program is ascending. Maybe year four will give us the answer, especially since the entire ACC has roster challenges. AREAS TO WATCH: Kenny Pickett has one career start, but that came in the upset of Miami where he was 18-29 with one TD and one interception. He appears to have at least partial dual threat ability. Two RB’s have talent but there will be four new OL starters, with the best of those who departed being a high NFL draft pick. I expected the Panthers to allow far more sacks last year and sacks allowed skied from 10 up to 31. Pickett was sacked just once vs. Miami so this will be a great check during September! The front seven on defense is locked and loaded with all returning starters, five of which are seniors. Pitt loses two starters in the secondary, both drafted in the 4th round. There is a new defensive coordinator. Randy Bates was the long time LB coach at Northwestern. ’18 PREVIEW: UCF takes Rice’s place out of the ACC while Wake Forest replaces NC St. on the ACC schedule. Pitt defeated Penn State 42-39 (favored at -5) in ’16. This game could be just as close but the Panthers may come up short. The option of GT has given Pitt’s defense fits. With a loaded front seven shouldn’t this be easier? Pitt has close game revenge at North Carolina. They need to find a way to finally win a game at their place. GT, North Carolina and Pitt all missed the bowl season a year ago. It will be interesting to see if one of these teams separates itself in ’18. Staying on the road, the focus could be off when traveling out of conference to face UCF and their fine QB. The last time Syracuse came to beautiful Pittsburgh (yes, it’s a great city) they lost 76-61. One would hope the Panther D has improved. I like the placement of the game hosting Notre Dame. My projected record will be about 4-3 if they upset the Irish. Games 8-11 will tell me plenty about the rise or fall of Narduzzi as a head coach. They host Duke, travel to Virginia, host Virginia Tech and travel to Wake Forest. If progressing, shouldn’t this be 3-1? Obviously a check of QB Pinkett prior to these games is essential. Pitt closes at revenge-minded Miami. BOTTOM nd LINE: 2 place appears up for grabs in the ACC Coastal. I like Pitt’s ACC schedule pacing so why can’t they be the team that makes the biggest move? QB/OL play is one key. The other key is dictating play defensively with an experienced front seven. Predicting Pitt’s progress will be easier once we see Pickett in action but for now I think 6-6, with 7-5 within reach. HANDICAPPING TIP: With two decent home underdog situations, plus positive past host history I will back Pitt as a home dog vs. Notre Dame. My lean for Pitt would be as a dog hosting Virginia Tech and at Wake Forest later in the year.

3T. North Carolina There’s chaos in Chapel Hill. Still somehow not punished for all their (multiple) recruiting transgressions including academic fraud, the Tar Heels are again in trouble. On the player front, a half-dozen or more players may have illegally sold university merchandise. On the coaching front, Larry Fedora inserted his foot squarely into his mouth insinuating that the game of football is under attack. Here is one of his direct quotes on the topic of player safety: “I fear that the game will be pushed so far from what we know that we won’t recognize it 10 years from now. And if it does, our country will go down too.” Why he still has a job is beyond my comprehension. Then again, another losing season and he will be gone, as discussed below. AREAS TO WATCH: My ACC preview is littered with teams that are going to be very young in ’18. Much of that youth is on the defensive side but here it’s all about the offense, with six projected underclass starters. At least the young QB and RB have nine previous starts and played solid football as freshman. I’m still worried about how they’ll fare with a less than perfect OL. The defense is in far better shape but the run D regressed in ’17. Looking back, the pass D% has had a decent six year run. I have them staying in that same range for ’18 (56.5%). Perhaps the -7 turnover ratio can improve. ’18 PREVIEW: North Carolina’s schedule pacing is better than many ACC rivals. They start with back-to- back road games at Cal and lowly East Carolina. UCF had a great ’17 season but now has a new staff. They have to play in Chapel Hill. Their 1st ACC game is hosting Pitt. Almost every meeting has been decided by seven or fewer points and that could easily continue. The Tar Heels will have a short week to prepare for a road game at Miami but that series has been close as well. They get Virginia Tech at home after the Hokies have played Notre Dame. Tech has a solid win history at North Carolina but the defense is young and that game vs. the Irish could take something out of them. My pre-game question before the Tar Heels go to Syracuse is as follows: Which team is playing defense in ’18? Neither team played solid defense in ’17. How has Virginia fared at home thus far? If the answer is one of concern then the Tar Heels will have more than a 50% win shot. History (mixed) won’t be of help in deciphering the outcome of their next game, hosting GT. Almost every season a group of ACC teams are hard to separate. North Carolina is firmly in that mix of teams. North Carolina can win at Duke if the young offense has come together. The Tar Heels have a huge scheduling advantage in their finale vs. NC St. Then again, if things are not going well it will be hard to recommend them come November. BOTTOM LINE: In this spot a year ago I noted that I was unsure how ’17 would play out. The season was far worse than expected. nd The Coastal Division is a mess in ’18 and almost every team can at least vie for 2 place. Beware of suspensions prior to the start of the season. If they once again escape punishment then 7-5 is achievable. Last winter I projected Troy’s Neal Brown as the new Tar Heel head coach in ’19. Larry Fedora’s job is on the line for reasons both on and off the field. HANDICAPPING TIP: None. I had no tips here a year ago but missed on my listed personal recommendation. Two possible play-on spots are 9/15 vs. UCF as a home dog and 11/10 at Duke as a road dog. Offensive progress must be achieved 1st, plus player suspensions need to be kept at a minimum.

3T. Georgia Tech GT had played in bowl game 19 out of the past 20 seasons. With solid returning depth bowl #20 should have been well within reach. Was ’17 a blimp on the radar screen or is it time to say that the triple option attack in a Power Five offense is losing its luster? AREAS TO WATCH: Most of what goes into handicapping GT does NOT change. You know exactly what you get with this team. The stat projections even in a down year remained steady and accurate. The point D is generally steady. The offense should remain as proficient despite the tougher schedule due to an all junior-senior starting lineup. They do graduate their leading and only WR from a year ago. On paper the defense looks weaker. Two new sophomores start at LB and two redshirt freshmen may start in a secondary that will feature four new starters! The run D is never great but all four senior starters return so maybe they lower the yards-per- carry a bit. GT has averaged fewer than 1.4 defensive sacks per game over the past four years. That needs to change. Maybe this year it does, with below par coordinator Ted Roof finally gone and former Appalachian St. coordinator Nate Woody in his place! It looks like they may switch to a 3-4 alignment. I’ll be charting that transition. ’18 PREVIEW: GT opens with Alcorn St. Can I learn anything from that game? Road trips to USF and Pittsburgh follow. GT is usually a quick starting team so this could be a split, and a much needed split. As noted in the Clemson preview, the Tigers will have already prepped for facing the option. Louisville will have just played FSU, but their pass scheme could be too much for the brand new GT secondary to handle. Duke has two weeks to prepare for GT’s option. That has been important in the past. GT has had success at Virginia Tech. Like many games on their schedule I have no words of wisdom as to the end result (sorry). Results at North Carolina have been mixed (high scoring). By now we should know more about any ’18 defensive improvements with the upgrade in coaching but the weaker on-field talent. I show historical conflict in the next two games where GT hosts Miami and Virginia. They may need to win one or both games to become bowl eligible. The finale is at Georgia. These games have been close. BOTTOM LINE: A year ago I used the word WOW to describe my feeling about the ’17 schedule. I suddenly saw a team that had many weekly obstacles to overcome. As a result I gave them a ceiling of 6-6, which was only 5-6 due to the cancelled game vs. UCF which was not made up. GT is just 17-19 over the past three seasons. I think the defense is a year away from true progress but the offense should be strong. The upgraded schedule has me again at 6-6. Check the defense all season long. HANDICAPPING TIP: GT has always been a strong road underdog, especially in games in which they are perceived to be competitive (spread under double digits). I will continue to look at them when in this role.

6T. Duke After four straight bowl games appearances Duke took a step back in ’16. That was expected with their returning QB hurt and some key players gone from the defense. The goal in ’17 was simple: Get back to the postseason. Mission accomplished despite some key injuries as well as some expected regression (see below). Duke has stabilized, so the next goal is to challenge for at least 2nd place in the more unpredictable ACC Coastal Division. AREAS TO WATCH: Duke QB Daniel Jones needs to improve upon his 12-11 regular season TD to interception ratio. The OL is average at best. That could impact offensive progress. Only two seniors are projected to start on defense. Having seven or eight projected defensive returning starters is not bad, although Senior LB Jeremy McDuffie may not be ready to play due to injury. DC Jim Knowles left for another job. They’ve groomed his replacement in-house but it’s still a loss. Expectations were that special team play would suffer in ’16 due to the loss of their stars. No improvement was made in ’17 (new coach in ’17 as well). ’18 PREVIEW: Duke opens ’18 with revenge vs. Army, who loses its long time starter at QB. A win is expected. They’ve had trouble vs. Northwestern but beat them solidly at home in ’17. Is the Wildcat QB healthy to start the season? Baylor is expected to improve off its dismal ’17 but even though they host the Blue Devils I expect Duke to win this one. 3-1 should be the floor for this team entering ACC play. At this time the check points will be QB play, OL protection and defensive stat analysis. It’s been 37 years since Duke beat VT at home (0-7). They’ve lost the last three home games by a total of just eight points however and I expect another close one here. Having a bye week before facing GT’s option attack is ideal. Duke is night and day different historically with rest prior to this game. This looks like a doable 5-2 if the stat sheet shows no regression (hosts Virginia game 7). Host Pitt will be rested prior to their meeting. On paper not much separates these teams, who have very similar Power ratings as well. I expect a loss at Miami but Duke can make a push for 2nd place in the Coastal if they defeat visiting North Carolina the next week. This series has been close so a win is not guaranteed. The finale is hosting Wake Forest. In charting this game prior to this write-up I uncovered numerous conflicting scenarios. Suffice to say this game is also a tossup! BOTTOM LINE: I think Duke goes bowling at perhaps 7-5 or 6-6. They have positional depth but lack true positional impact. Improved QB and special team play would make things easier. HANDICAPPING TIP: I listed four games here a year ago with spread consequences if the parameters were right. Two games met those parameters and the result was 2-0. Unfortunately, I have no tips to list this year.

6T. Virginia I like Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall. After a rough transition he had the Cavs at 5-1 in ’17. That was the high point. Virginia lost to average at best Boston College and Pitt by a combined score of 72-24. They managed to win that 6th game (barely) but then got trounced by Navy 49-7 in the bowl game. Year #3 needs to be better. AREAS TO WATCH: QB Kurt Beckert departs after throwing for over 3,200 yards and a 25-9 ratio. I expect interceptions to rise with the new QB. I projected a modest 4.0 per carry in ’17. Virginia hit just 3.7, and less than that in ACC play. Maybe the #’s artificially go up in a league where many DL’s needing rebuilding but I don’t see a star in the making on the roster. The entire offense looks average at best. Eight starters return defensively but Virginia’s three best players are off to the NFL. The run D was 4.8 in ’16 and 4.7 (corrected for sacks of course) in ’17. I’m using 4.55 for ’18. One area that did improve was the pass D, which was 53.5% in ’17. Can that stay stout? The kicking game was pedestrian a year ago. I like the new special team coach. ’18 PREVIEW: Boise is off the schedule, so if Virginia is serious about improving they need to go 3-1 playing Richmond, Indiana, Ohio U and Liberty. Richmond beat the Cavs in ’16 and Indiana won at Virginia in ’17! Both Louisville (home game) and NC St. (road game) have issues defensively. Can this result in at least a split? The Cavs have a huge scheduling advantage when hosting Miami. They’ve had a nice track record at home in this series but lost by 20 in Mendenhall’s initial season. Games 7-9 are at Duke (2-0 in Mendenhall era), and home games vs. North Carolina (road team won both games) and Pitt (pair of double digit losses). Like Virginia, these teams are on the fringe of bowl eligibility. 2-1 has to be the goal! Virginia closes at GT and Virginia Tech. The Hokies have won 14 straight vs. the Cavs so I’d strongly advise being bowl eligible prior to that game. BOTTOM LINE: I like the coaching staff but this is year #3 on the east coast and improvement is mandatory. There’s nothing on paper that suggests anything but mediocrity yet Virginia should be competitive in most of their games. 6-6 or 5-7 seems logical. Can the backfield exceed expectations? Ultimately, the turnover ratio might decide their fate. HANDICAPPING TIP: I like Virginia 10/13 hosting Miami, especially if the Cavs are off a straight up win. I give the Cavs a 50% shot at beating Louisville and will look for the dog 9/29 at NC St. Be careful if Virginia underachieves, losing motivation. A loss hosting North Carolina 10/27 could trigger a subpar effort 11/2 hosting Pitt!