OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR Dekadal Bullandin from 11th to 20th February, 2020 LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES Bullandin no 35 NATIONAL OBSERVATORY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

DIRECTION GENERALE - DIRECTORATE GENERAL ONACC ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; email: [email protected]; Tel (237) 693 370 504 CLIMATE ALERTS AND PROBABLE IMPACTS FOR THE PERIOD 11th to 20th FEBRUARY, 2020

Supervision NB: It should be noted that this forecast is developed Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change using spatial data from: (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, . - the International Institute for Climate and Sociandy Ing. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (IRI) of Columbia University, USA; (ONACC). - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric ProductionTeam (ONACC) Administration (NOAA), USA; Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, ONACC and Lecturer in the - AccuWeather (American Institution specialized in Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. mandeorological forecasts), USA; Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, ONACC. - the African Centre for Applied Mandeorology for BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, Technical staff, ONACC. Development (ACMAD). ZOUH TEM Isabella, MSc in GIS-Environment. - Spatial data, from 1979 to 2018 relative to Ocean NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Climatology/Biogeography. Pacific, as well as the intensity of the El-Niño/La ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC Nina episodes in the Pacific, precipitation and ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. Business and Environmental law. temperatures from local stations.

- ONACC’s research works.

I. INTRODUCTION

This ten-day alert bulletin n°34 reveals the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018 and climate forecasts developed for the five Agro-ecological zones for the period February 11 to 20, 2020. It also highlights the potential risks, threats and impacts, observable in certain socio-economic sectors in the five agro-ecological zones of Cameroon. It also assesses forecasts made for the ten-day period from 1st to 10th February, 2020. This current dekad is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, which causes an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout the country and by the installation of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) below the southern part of the country. Morning fogs will also be observed during this period throughout the national territory.

II. CLIMATIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD 11th to 20th FEBRUARY, 2020

II.1. For Temperatures

The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala in the Centre region; - Belabo, , , , Abong-Mbang, , and Lomie in the ; - Akom II, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Zoandele, Sangmelima, Djoum, around the mean in Kribi in the South region; - Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Bangangte and Dschang in the West region; - Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo and Bali in the North West region; - , , Limbe, Eyumojock, Mamfe, Muyuka, Bamusso, , Fontem and in the South West region; - Mouanko, Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. NB: 1) During this period, we note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national territory. 2) There is a high probability of recording an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures of 35-40°C in the Far North and North Regions; above 30°C in the Adamawa region and the northern part of the East region, and in the Centre and South regions. The following locations have a high probability of experiencing a large decrease in mean minimum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Akom II in the South region; - Bazou and Bangante in the West region; - Mamfe in the South West region. NB:The current dekad shows high probability of recording low minimum temperatures in the Extreme North, North, Adamawa and the northern part of the East region, Lolodorf, Akom II and Zoandele in the South region; Dschang, Mbouda and Bamendjing in the West region; Bali, Fundong and Kumbo in the North West region. These could also lead to cold waves. A high probability of recording an increase in daily thermal differences of up to 10°C in the localities of Yagoua in the Far North region, Banyo in the Adamawa region, Belabo, Bertoua and Yokadouma in the East region, Foumban and Bafoussam in the West region. II.2. For Precipitations Periodic and low intensity rainfall could be observed in the localities of Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Obala, Mbalmayo and Ngoro in the Centre region; Ngoila and in the East region; Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region; Bazou in the West region; Tiko, Eyumojock, Mundemba, Kumba, Mutenguene, Buea and Limbe, in the South West region; Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokiti, Edea, Mouanko, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Yabassi in the Littoral region.

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II.3. For visibility and air quality We expect increased morning fog and haze, with a high risk of traffic accidents for road users, in the localities of Eseka Monatele, Bafia, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Mbandjock, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre region; Mbitom, Ngoila, Mindourou, Yokadouma, Mouloundou and Lomie in the East region; Kribi, Campo and Nyabizan in the South region; Bamendjing, Foumban, Makoupa, Nkoumangba, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and Bazou in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Bamenda, Wum, Santa, Kumbo, Bambalang, Fundong and Benakuma in the North West region; Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutenguene and Idenau in the South West region.

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th February, 2020

1) For precipitations NB : We expect: This period is characterized by the influence of the Harmattan, which a) In the Sudano-sahelian zone causes an accentuation of dry and dusty fog throughout the country - A high probability of registering no rainfall in the and by the installation of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) below the North and Far North regions; southern part of the country. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone - A high probability of registering no rainfall in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone - A high probability of sporadic and low intensity rainfall in the localities of Eseka, Bafia, Yaounde, Obala and Ngoro in the Centre region; Ngoila and Mouloundou in the East region; Campo, Kribi, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Djoum, Akom II and Nyabizan in the South region. d) In the high plateau zone - A probability of registering no rainfall in the localities of the North West region; - a high probability of recording sporadic and low intensity rains in the locality of Bazou in the West region. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone - Sporadic and low intensity rains in the localities of Tiko, Eyumojock, Mundemba, Kumba, Mutengene, Buea and Limbe in the South West region; Nkongsamba, Manjo, Loum, Penja, Ndokoti, Edea, Mouako, Dizangue, Melong, Mbanga, Douala and Figure 1: Distribution of rainfall for the current dekad compared to that of the Yabassi in the Littoral region. previous dekad from February 11 to 20, 2020 2) For visibility and air quality Source : ONACC, February 2020 ALimbe persistence of morning fog and mist, already observed in the last dekad is expected in the localities NB: of Eseka, Yaounde and Akonolinga in the Centre 1) This dekad from 1st to 10th February, 2020 corresponds to the extension region; Lomie, Ngoila, Mindourou and Mouloundou of the dry season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North in the East region; Kribi and Nyabizan in the South regions), in the Guinea high savannah zone (Adamawa region), the high plateau zone (West and North West regions), Monomodal rainfall forest region; Bamendjing, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam, zone (Littoral and South West regions). Mbouda, Bafang, Bagangte, Tonga, Dschang and 2) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone (Centre, South and East regions) Bazou in the West region; Widikum, Ebang, Menka, this period corresponds to an extension of the long dry season. Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Santa, Bamenda, Wum, Kumbo, Fundong, Benakuma and Bambalang in the North West region; Mundemba, Mamfe, Fontem, Kumba, Bamusso, Buea, Tiko, Limbe, Muyuka, Mutengene and Idenau in the South West region.

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2) For Temperatures

a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical average of maximum temperatures averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, that is 35.13°C in the Far North region, 36.7°C in the North region, 34.23°C in the Adamawa region, 29.28°C in the Centre, 29.8°C in the South region, 30.2 in the East regions, 28.85°C in West, 28.72 in the North West, 29.7°C in the South West region, 28.8°C in the In the Littoral region, there is a high probability of recording; - average maximum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from to 2018 in Bogo, Kaele and Waza; below the historical average in Maga, Mora, 1979 to 2018 at Campo, around the historical average at Kribi and above the Maroua, Yagoua and Mindif in the Far North region; average in Zoandele Sangmelima, Akom II, Lolodorf, Djoum, and Ebolowa in - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 the South region; to 2018 at Poli and around the average historical data in Dembo, Lagdo, Pitoa, - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from Guider, Touboro, Rey Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; 1979 to 2018 in Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo and Bali in the North West region ; - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from to 2018 in Tibati, Tignere, Banyo and Ngaoundere; around the historical average at 1979 to 2018 in Tiko, Buea, Limbe and above the historical average in Mbakaou and Meiganga and higher than the historical average in Banyo in the Eyumojock, Mamfe, Kumba, Muyuka, Mundemba and Fontem in the South Adamawa region; West region; - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from to 2018 in Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monatele, Yaounde, 1979 to 2018 in Mouanko, Melong Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala, in the Centre region; Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. - average maximum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mouloundou; around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Bandare Oya and above the historical average recorded in Belabo, Bertoua, NB: We note a high risk of observing heat waves characterised by Batouri, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Ngoila and Lomie in the East temperatures above 30°C for several successive days over the national region; territory, and particularly in the Far North, North, Centre, South and East - average maximum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 region. to 2018 in Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Bangangte and Dschang in the West region ;

(b) (a) Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (b) and expected anomalies for the current dekad. (Source: ONACC, February 2020)

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Based on the difference bandween the average maximum temperatures recorded in the 2020 in Yaounde, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Nkoteng, Eseka, Obala, Monatele, Bafia, dekad from 1st to 10th February, 2020 and the average maximum temperatures forecast Ngoro, Yoko and Nanga Eboko, in the Centre region; th th for the dekad from 11 to 20 February 2020, there is a high probability of registering: - average maximum temperatures higher than those recorded from 1st to 10th January - mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th February, 2020 in 2020 in Ebolowa and Djoum; lower than the last dekad recorded in Akom II and around Waza; above the average recorded during the last dekad in Mindif, Kaele, Maroua, the mean recorded during the last dekad in Zoandele, Lolodorf, Kribi, Sangmelima, and Mora, Kousseri, Bogo, Maga and Yagoua in the Far North region; Campo in the South region; mean maximum temperatures lower than those recorded from 1st to 10th January, 2020 - - mean maximum temperatures around those recorded from 1st to 10th January, 2020 in st th in Poli; and around the mean recorded from 1 to 10 January, 2020 in Tchollire, Rey Fontem, Limbe, Buea, Idenau, Mundemba, Kumba, Muyuka, Tiko, Eyumojock and Bouba, Touboro, Garoua, Guider and Lagdo and higher than the mean in Dembo in the Mundemba; higher than that recorded in the last dekad in and Mamfe in the South West North region; region; mean maximum temperatures above those recorded in the last dekad in Tibati and - - average maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th January, st th Banyo; below those recorded from 1 to 10 January, 2020 in Tignere; and around the 2020 in Edea and above the average recorded in Mouanko, Melong, Dizangue, Penja, mean recorded in the last dekad in Mbakaou, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Yabassi, Mbanga, Nkongsanba, Douala, Loum and Manjo in the Littoral region. Adamawa region; - mean maximum temperatures above the average recorded from 1st to 10th January,

- mean maximum temperatures above those recorded in the last dekad in Abong- 2020 in Bali and around the average in Wum, Kumbo, Santa and Bamenda in the North Mbang, Ngoila, Lomie, Mindourou, Bandare Oya, Yokadouma, Bertoua, Belabo and West region; Batouri; below the average recorded from January 1st to 10th, 2020 in Bandare Oya; and - mean maximum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to 10th January, around the mean registered in the last dekad in Mouloundou in the East region; 2020 in Bafang, Bangangte, Dschang, Foumban, Foumbot, Bafoussam and Tonga, in average maximum temperatures higher than those recorded from 1st to 10th January - the West region.

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures forecast for current dekad (b) compared to the dekad from 1st to 10th February 2020, (a) expected anomalies for the period from 11th to 20th February 2020(c). Source: ONACC, February 2020

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th February 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of

experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their historic means for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include:

- Akonolinga, Bafia, Eseka, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Monate le, Yaounde, Ngoro, Nanga Eboko, Nkoteng, Yoko and Obala, in the Centre region; - Belabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Yokadouma, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Ngoila and Lomie, in the East region; - Akom II, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Zoandele, Sangmelima, Djoum and Kribi, in the South region;

- Foumban, Foumbot, Tonga, Bafoussam, Bafang, Bangangte and Dschang, in the West region; - Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo and Bali in the North West region ; - Tiko, Buea, Limbe, Eyumojock, Mamfe, Muyuka, Bamusso, Mundemba, Fontem and Kumba, in the South West region; - Mouanko, Melong, Dizangue, Penja, Yabassi, Edea, Mbanga, Nkongsamba, Douala, Loum and Manjo, in the Littoral region.

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b) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018, that is 18.9°C in the Far North region, 18.3°C in the Adamawa region, 20.8°C in the North region, 19.6°C in the East region, 16.6°C in the West, 16.7 in the North West regions; 19.1°C in the Centre region, 20.9°C in the South region, 21.5°C in the South West region, 21°C in the Littoral region, there is a high probability registering: - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to - average minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 2018 in Kaele, Waza, Mora and Maroua, Mindif, Bogo, Kousseri, Maga and Yagoua, in to 2018 in Yoko and above the historical average in Ngoro, Monatele, Eseka, the Far North region; Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Yaounde; Obala and Bafia in the Centre Region; - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Poli, Rey Bouba, Mandingrin, Touboro, Tchollire and Lagdo; average minimum 2018 in Tonga; around the historical average in Bafang, Bangangte and Bazou and temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dembo, above the average in Foumban, Bamendjing, Bafoussam and Dschang, in the West Garoua and Pitoa in the North region; Region; - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 2018 in Ngaoundere, Banyo, Meiganga and Tignere; and around the historical average to 2018 in Bali, Fundong, Kumbo Benakuma, Wum and Bamenda, in the North- in Mbakaou in the Adamawa region; West Region; - average minimum temperatures below the historical average recorded from 1979 to - minimum temperatures around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 2018 in Betare Oya, Yokadouma and Garoua Boulai; and around the historical average in Eyumojock and Mamfe; above the average in and below the historic average in in Lomie, Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Batouri, Bertoua and Mindourou Moloundou in the Mundemba, Idenau Tiko, Kumba, Bamusso and Muyuka, in the South West region. East Region; - -minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 - average minimum temperatures above the historical average recorded from 1979 to in Mbanga, Yabassi, Loum, Douala, Dizangue, Edea, Mouanko, Manjo, Melong, 2018 in Nyabisan, Campo and Kribi; around the historical average in Akom II and Nkongsamba, and Penja and above the historic average in in the Littoral region. below the historical average Sangmelima, Zoetele, Lolodorf, Djoum and Ebolowa in the South region;

Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the current dekad (a) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same (a) (b) (c) period (b) and expected anomalies for the period from 11th to 20th February, 2020. (c) Source: ONACC, February 2020

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Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures - average minimum temperatures above the average recorded from 1st to 10th recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th February, 2020 and the average February 2020 in Kribi, Campo and Nyabisan; around the average recorded th th st th minimum temperatures expected for the dekad from 11 to 20 February, from 1 to 10 February, 2020 in Akom II and below the average in 2020, there is a high probability of registering: Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Sangmelima, Zoetele, Djoum in the South region; - average minimum temperatures lower than those recorded from 1st to 10th - mean minimum temperatures above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th February, 2020 in Kaele, Maroua, Maga, Mora, Mokolo, Waza Yagoua, February, 2020 in Mouanko, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Melong, Mindif, Kousseri and Bogo in the Far North region; Nkongsamba, Penja, Loum, Douala, Manjo and Edea in the Littoral - average minimum temperatures lower than those recorded from 1st to 10th region; February, 2020 in Mandingrin, Rey Bouba, Tchollirie, Poli and Touboro - mean minimum temperatures around the mean recorded from 1st to 10th around the average in Garoua and Dembo in the North region ; February 2020 in Bafang, Bazou and Bangangte; lower than the mean at - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from February Foumban, Bafoussam, Dschang and Bamending and above the average st th st th 1 to 10 , 2020 in Tignere, Banyo, Ngaoundere and Meiganga, and around recorded from 1 to 10 February 2020 in Tonga in the West region; the average recorded from February 1st to 10th , 2020 in Mbakaou and - mean minimum temperatures above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th Tibati in the Adamawa region ; February, 2020 in Kumba, Mamfe, Tiko, Bamusso, Muyuka, Mundemba - average minimum temperatures around the average recorded from 1st to and Idenau and around the mean in Eyumojock and Mamfe in the South- 10th February, 2020 in Yoko; above the average recorded from 1st to 10th West Region; February 2020 in Ngoro, Monatele, Eseka, Nkoteng, Obala, Akonolinga, - mean minimum temperatures below the average recorded from 1st to 10th Yaounde and Mbalmayo, in the Centre region; February 2020 in Bali and Wum, Benakuma, Fundong, Kumbo and st - average minimum temperatures below the average recorded from 1 to Bamenda in the North West Region. 10th February, 2020 in Betare Oya, Yokadouma and Garoua Boulai; around the average in Lomie, Mindourou, , Ngoila, Belabo, Batouri, Mindourou, NB: There is a high risk of an increase in cold nights in the Bertoua, Abong Mbang and Moloundou in the East region; - mean minimum temperatures above the mean recorded from 1st to 10th localities of Kaele in the Far North region; Guider, Garoua, Rey February, 2020 in Mouanko, Mbanga, Yabassi, Dizangue, Melong, Bouba and Tchollire in the North region; Tibati, Tignere and Nkongsamba, Penja, Loum, Douala, Manjo and Edea in the Littoral Mbakaou, in the Adamawa region; Yoko in the Centre region. region;

Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 11th to 20th February 2020 b) Compared to those registered for the same period from 1st to 10th February 2020 (a) and expected anomalies for the period from 11th to 20th February 2020 (c). Source : ONACC, février 2020

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th February, 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that are very likely to experience a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to their historic values for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These localities include;

- Akom II in the South region; - Bazou and Bangangte in the West region;

- Mamfe in the South West region.

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IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors

a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the tourism sector: - An increase in bush fires due to the dryness of the season - high risk of recording many cases of animal migration, due to water combined with the effect of dry winds and high temperatures, shortages in tourist sites in the Far North, North, Adamawa, Centre, resulting in the destruction of plantations (cocoa, coffee, banana, South and East regions. food crops, etc.), in the Centre, South and East, North-West, e) In the environment and biodiversity sector: South-West and Littoral regions; - A risk of the occurrence of thick fog, especially in the early morning for - hydric stress, for market gardening and food crops in the five some localities and in the afternoon for others, in localities located on the agro-ecological zones, following the accentuation of the dry outskirts of large cities and on the hillsides of cities such as Yaounde, Ebolowa season . and Bertoua in the Bimodal rainfall forest zone; Bamenda, Santa, Menka, - Increased insect pest attacks on cereals in the Extreme North, Batibo, Guzang, Munkep, Esu, Kumbo, Bali, Fundong and Wum in the North and the northern part of the Adamawa regions; Highlands zone; Fontem, Mamfe, Buea, Limbe, Kumba, Tiko, Idenau and Mutenguene, Loum, Manjo, Mbanga, Penja, Souza, Edea and Nkongsamba in b) In the health sector: the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone, with a high risk of traffic accidents; A risk of recording cases of: - A risk of recording many cases of: - Diarrhea, following the scarcity and poor quality of drinking water - bush fires in various localities in the Far North, North, Adamawa, in the five Agro-ecological zones; Centre, South, North West, West, South West and East regions; - meningococcal meningitis following the severe drought that is - poaching in areas close to protected areas due to their migration out of affecting some localities in the five Agro-ecological zones; reserves in search of water and food in the Far North, North, Adamawa, - Conjunctivitis due to the effects of a combination of heat and dusty Centre, South and East regions; winds in various localities in the five Agro-ecological zones; - conflicts between farmers and certain wildlife species in the Far North,

- Respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma, etc.) in North, North and the Adamawa regions; the Far North, North, Adamawa, North West, and West regions, due to - degradation of biological diversity as a result of severe drought in the an increasing presence of dust in the air and the cold nights during this five agro-ecological zones. period; - A high risk of registering more cases of migration of some wildlife species out

of the parks in search of food and water in the five agro ecological zones. - General pathology with systematic disorders in children, people

living suffering from diabetes, obesity or any pathology requiring f) In the livestock sector: medication acting on thermoregulation in the five Agro-ecological - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to the cold weather in some zones; localities in the Far North, North and Adamawa, West, East, North West and

- Syncope and psychological stress in schools, following the torrid South west regions; - scarcity of pasture and water resources in the Far North, North, heat, especially among asthmatic subjects in the five Agro-ecological Adamawa, Centre and North West regions zones. c) In the water and energy sector: - migration of transhumant herders in search of water points and grazing land - A risk drying up of water supply points as a result of the decrease in the Far North, North and Adamawa, North West, West, East and Centre regions; in the water level of the groundwater table in the Far North, North - increase in conflicts between herders and farmers over water points, plains and

and Adamawa; Centre, East, South, North West, West and South lowlands in the Far North, North and Adamawa, North West, West and West regions. Centre, West, South and South West regions. - a high risk of a decrease in the volume of water in dams, and water catchment and treatment sites.

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VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the decade from 1st to 10th February, 2020 Agro Ecological Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Soudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau zones Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral

Minimum temperatures

Historic mean (°C) 17.5 19.5 16.9 19.7 19.5 20.9 16.6 16.6 21.4 21

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success 100 100 88.3 91 100 75 80 100 70 100 rate (%) Maximum temperatures

Historic mean (°C) 33.68 35.5 33.3 30.88 30 30.22 29.04 29.47 30.1 28,95

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success 60.1 90 55 95 100 53.6 57.14 50 50 100 rate (%) Precipitations

Historic mean (mm) 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-13 0-22 5-50 0-13 0-4 0-34 5-34

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecasts success 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 rate (%)

≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector - make nurseries for market gardening and caral fields (for off-season millet) under shade; - transplant off-season crops; - make nurseries under the hedges; - sand up drip irrigation systems to irrigate plantations and nurseries in need of water in the five Agro-ecological zones; - promote drought-resistant crops and off-season crops in the Far North, North and northern parts of the Adamawa, North West, West, Centre, South and East regions; - promote the practice of integrated pest management to control pests of cereals and other crops. b) In the health sector - promote meningitis vaccination campaigns; - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, etc.); - sensitize populations to drink a lot of water and moderate their consumption of alcohol within this period; - encourage population to consume lots of fresh vegetables and meals rich in proteins in the Far North and northern parts of the Adamawa regions; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gear for protection from the cold nights during this period; - stay under shelters or in the house (especially between noon and 3p.m. when it is extremely hot); - take a cold bath before bedtime; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets. c) In the livestock sector - organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases; - raise awareness to promote fodder cultivation for livestock feed and distribution of fodder crops in preparation for the dry season. d) In the water and energy sector - sensitize the administrations concerned to take into account the climate forecasts developed by ONACC in the planning of water resource management in dams and water catchment sites. (e) In the sector of the environment and biodiversity - raise awareness among populations of the risks of conflicts with wildlife species in search of food and water; - raise awareness of the risks of bushfires and their impacts on climate change as a prelude to the upcoming dry season.

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 House no 1220, Streand no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm ONACC| 11