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Vision42 a Comparison of Relative Benefits of a Proposed River-To

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Vision42 a Comparison of Relative Benefits of a Proposed River-To vision42 A Comparison of Relative Benefits of a Proposed River-to-River Auto-free Light Rail Boulevard on 42nd Street with a New 10th Avenue #7 Subway Station Prepared by Urbanomics, Inc. May 23, 2012 vision42 an auto-free light rail boulevard for 42nd Street Phase V Technical Studies— A Comparison of Relative Benefits of a Proposed River-to-River Auto-free Light Rail Boulevard on 42nd Street with a New 10th Avenue #7 Subway Station Regina Armstrong, Principal-in-Charge Tina Lund AICP, Associate Principal Peter Furst, Research Assistant Urbanomics 115 Fifth Avenue, 2nd Floor New York, NY 10003 212-353-7465 in association with BFJ Planning Georges Jacquemart and Noah Levine May 23, 2012 vision42 Roxanne Warren, AIA, Chair George Haikalis, ASCE, Co-Chair The vision42 proposal is a citizens’ initiative sponsored by the Institute for Rational Urban Mobility, Inc. (IRUM), a New York City-based not-for-profit corporation concerned with advancing cost effective transport investments that improve the livability of dense urban places. This study, one of a second round of three technical studies that address key concerns about the feasibility of the vision42 proposal, was made possible by a generous grant from the New York Community Trust/Community Funds, Inc., John Todd McDowell Environmental Fund. Institute for Rational Urban Mobility, Inc. P.O. Box 409, New York, NY 10014 212-475-3394 www.irum.org www.vision42.org Table of Contents Executive Summary Forward I. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of Study ............................................................................................................................... 1 Prior Findings for LRT ......................................................................................................................... 2 II. The Benefits of Travel Time Savings ................................................................................................ 3 The Model in Brief ............................................................................................................................. 3 Updates ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Existing Travel in Study Area ............................................................................................................ 6 Forecasted Travel in Study Area .................................................................................................... 7 A Comparison: The Value of Travel Time Savings in Current Dollars ........................................ 8 LRT vs. Existing Subway System, excluding 10th Avenue #7 Station ........................................ 10 10th Avenue #7 Station vs. Existing Subway System, Excluding the vision42 LRT .................. 16 Comparison of travel Time Savings Benefits of vision42 LRT versus 10th Avenue Station ..... 18 III. The Benefits of Property Value Enhancements ......................................................................... 20 The Model in Brief ........................................................................................................................... 20 Updates ........................................................................................................................................... 20 The Current NYSTA Application .................................................................................................... 21 Modeling Future Office Conditions ............................................................................................. 22 The Related Use of Office Property Data for Impacts on Rents and Occupancy .............. 24 The Residential Property Model ................................................................................................... 24 Modeling Future Residential Conditions ..................................................................................... 26 A Comparison: The Value of One-Time Property Impact in Current Dollars ......................... 27 Under Existing Conditions .............................................................................................................. 27 Under Future Conditions ................................................................................................................ 29 A Comparison: The Value of Annual Property Income in Current Dollars ............................ 30 IV. Other Benefits: Retail, Hotel, Theater, and Open Space ......................................................... 32 Retail and Restaurants .................................................................................................................. 32 Retail Rents ...................................................................................................................................... 33 Increased Retail Sales Due to the LRT ......................................................................................... 34 Theaters ............................................................................................................................................ 35 Increased Theater Revenues Due to the LRT ............................................................................. 36 Hotels ................................................................................................................................................ 38 Increased Hotel Occupancy Due to the LRT ............................................................................. 42 Parks and Open Space ................................................................................................................. 43 V. LRT & 10th Avenue Station Costs ................................................................................................... 45 Construction Costs ......................................................................................................................... 45 Updates ........................................................................................................................................... 46 Current Cost Estimates .................................................................................................................. 46 Retail Sales Lost During Construction .......................................................................................... 47 Annual Operating Expenses ......................................................................................................... 47 Annual Traffic Diversion and Delivery Costs ............................................................................... 48 Accident Reduction ...................................................................................................................... 48 VI. A Cost-Benefit Comparison of Investment in vision42 vs. 10th Avenue Station ........................................................................................................................ 49 Non-Recurring Impacts ................................................................................................................. 49 Annual Impacts .............................................................................................................................. 50 Economic Benefits .......................................................................................................................... 50 Fiscal Benefits .................................................................................................................................. 51 Appendix A: 10th Avenue Station Travel Time Savings (Gravity Method) ......................................... A-1 Appendix B: Retail, Hotel, Theater, and Open Space Fieldwork Report ........................................... B-1 Tables Table 2.1 Annualized Economic Benefits of LRT Travel Time Savings 2005 Report vs. 2012 Report .................................................................................................................... 9 Table 2.2 Existing Conditions: Annualized Travel Time Savings Benefits of LRT ........................ 10 Table 2.3 Buildout Conditions: Annualized Travel Time Savings Benefits of LRT ....................... 10 Table 2.4 Existing Conditions: Annualized Travel Time Savings Benefits of 10th Avenue Station ................................................................................................................................ 17 Table 2.5 Buildout Conditions: Annualized Travel Time Savings Benefits of 10th Avenue Station ....................................................................................... 17 Table 2.6 Existing Conditions: Comparison of the Travel Time Savings Benefits of LRT versus the 10th Avenue Station ............................................................. 19 Table 2.7 Buildout Conditions: Comparison of the Travel Time Savings Benefits of LRT versus the 10th Avenue Station ............................................................ 19 Table 3.1 Future Office Development in the Study Area (millions 2011$) ................................. 23 Table 3.2 Future Residential Development in the Study Area .................................................... 27 Table 3.3 Office Rent Increase under Normal Occupancy ........................................................ 27 Table 3.4 The Comparative Economic and Fiscal Benefits of Property Value Increases Under Existing Conditions ..............................................................................
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