the level expected climate similar light behavior glaciological GCMs validate the regional nested the The Betts ( physical model the at The these RMSE stations, 1989 E Av. Portales 3450, Estacion Central, , . Corresponding author address: Ms. Claudia Viillarroel ,Dirección Meteorológica deChile. Location of weather Locationof stations Abstract Validation of theprecipitation and temperature Domains

-

45 mail:

Precipitation

ice

(%mm) Sobreestima 2000

Validation Northern inthe usingWRF Climate, ofthe different Northern Subestima- -

climate 200 100 100 200 300 400 500 600

on downscaling rise - 0 ), km, Miller .

2

errors

geographical

within

sea ene

was changes [email protected] analysis Interest the the

model QNSE

-

in

(*): Series con más de 30% de datos faltantesdatos (*):de 30% con más de Series N° scheme contribution 2006 domain and used weather Location

during while 13 12 11 10 Diferencia (Mod porcentualDiferencia feb 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

the

and

simulating

project

version ( improvement degree mar

1986 Caleta Baker) Tortel (Río San Pedro Colonia CochraneLord (Aeródromo) CachetLago 2 BakerRio en Ang. Chacabuco Raper Cabo Glaciar San Rafael (Aeródromo) Bahia Murta Baker) (Río Balmaceda (Aeropuerto) Coyhaique (Te. Vidal) Puerto Aysen (Aeródromo) Station

domains, information

nested are Ice

a second

is abr orography period

it 15 in surface

parametrizations

mensual de precipitación de mensual

:

the in Cap indicates

significant

initialized in was 3 may

) was

simulation of

-

. km this

funded

Janjic

of

the of jun Patagonia, settings Thompson next

. of

using

stations

from

only at the over

the resolution done jul confidence Numerical

mainly

study

layer, NPI 15 ago

in

( of

2

current the

regional

1994

by that

the about

using

of sep

the in km

. centuries

this the the using

over

Based

is the

oct

summer

over

melting QNSE

- ) largest

Northern and

Obs) del total del Obs) which

model et

nov

due

for

NCEP/NCAR large

subregional the

20 EU simulation

climate

estimate

the in Weather

dic al

- DGA SERVIMET DGA DMC DGA DGA SERVIMET DGA DMC DGA DMC DMC DMC Source cumulus, the the

on

80

NCEP/NCAR 7

simulating .

to

(

boundary

dynamic

2008 and is The and errors

FP results %

and

this third NPI,

the

Patagonia Caleta Tortel (13) CaletaTortel (10) Cochrane Lord (5) Chile Chico (4) BahíaMurta (3) Balmaceda (2) Coyhaique basic and . at

autumn possible

), for final

study remote and

Lord was

at

domain scarce are and

are RRTM Lat its

with 47º47' 47º14' 47º08' 46º49' 46º38' 46º32' 46º27' 45º54' 45º35' 45º24' 47°43

47º20 47º11

about

WRF Reanalysis

information 5

future

Research objective

layer,

variability

carried

Cochrane km tested found subsequent the

. Reanalysis

respect

(mm) icefield, Icefield

ice Lon

300 400 500 100 200

longwave

model 73º32' 73º06' 72º33' 72º43' 75º37' 73º51' 71º41' 72º40' 71º43' 72º07' 73º40' availability 74°55 73º14 resolution and 200 0 ETA

climate

5

ene Error cuadratico medio(RMSE) del total mensual mensualtotal del medio(RMSE) Error cuadratico collapse

at

out against

%

layer

a Preliminary resultsIcefield:

feb of operational

Forecast

in Coyhaique, to

High

for 45 data ( for at (NPI)

for

mar 10 146 182 427 160 327 240 520 310 and

this 10 46 11 complex

8

the

model database

scenarios Claudia VillarroelClaudia

Coyhaique km . ) abr three and the thermal estimating

. This

y in

of the

work lower may 2000-2010 2000-2006 2000-2010 2000-2006 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000-2005 the

with Some

Caleta

resolution

Patagonia 2000

Model shortwave

observed jun de de precipitación

runs

observed nested

later

scheme need

terrain

Data Period Data

a jul is while . resolution diffusion

-

Regional 2006

5

in ago

to Tortel

parameterizations

will

1

( domain glacier (WRF)

2 km 2003-2010*

2003-2010 2000-2005 2000-2005 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000-2010 Dirección Meteorológica Chile Santiago, de Chile, Meteorológica Dirección sep the

2 to

assess )

. domains Precip.

in regional

.

Centro de Estudios Científicos, Valdivia, Científicos, Centro de Estudios Chile 2010 2010 allow .

The

and

oct

period This meteorological

resolution,

validate radiation surface the ( region

13 nov 3 1

for

, Jorge F.Jorge , Carrasco

has simulations Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile Santiago, de Chile, Universidad simulations variations results was Balmaceda

)

to dic study other

the stations . land :

domain model The

been the

and centered

stations the future of

is stations will

Caleta Tortel (13) CaletaTortel (10) Cochrane Lord (5) Chile Chico (4) BahíaMurta (3) Balmaceda (2) Coyhaique which first surface, regional

Budhia

also run

part

. model future

were to .

shed The

from

from The and one ( sea

3

for

be

to of in in ) is

:

1,2 , Gino Casassa , Murta the Despite Thompson, Janjic, Dudhia, CONAMA, Betts, more elevation Latitudinal results accumulation Spatial mm corrected same observed model Monthly behavior (winter) - 100 N=62 R=0.46 ChileChico(5) References Spatial simulations

a) Temperature

model .

-

Altitude (m) 250 N=83 R=0.73 (2) Coyhaique

1500 1000 1250 Parameterization Precipitation viscous mesoscale Geofísica 709 GATE

precipitation

250 500 750 A

and

- -76 0

200 Z

. (CONAMA,

place

distribution - domain J . 50 of

K -

months . 150

. .

precipitation

(light , .

I .

-75.5

,

.

- 0 2006 the

100 Gregory, , vertical for 1989 The and

precipitation wave, Air Temperature .

36 1994 - sublayer ------50

. 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 100 100 - - 50 50 50 50

-75 . 0 0 for

important

1

0 0

Universidad blue differences .

M in

The two :

correlation . : and Mark Falvey and Mark

3

50

. :

-74.5

Numerical Using The

BOMEX, the Lord

2000

Estudio J

in 100

The profile 2006 - . Paul in ANNUAL PRECIS

dimensional of

shaded Miller,

150 the .

and

-74

simulated

50 Mon seasonal

model

Bahia 200

the Modeled as - Cochrane

an step

San (N Pedro

2006

) R western differences

250 -73.5

turbulence to

. registered

at

.

de Improved

1986 300

de ATEX simulated Field, simulated coefficient

Wea -

grater study

visualize mountain area)

100

46 350 -73

Chile la in Muta period Observed 400

: °

model

.

°

S -72.5 behavior

A 12

variabilidad Roy 450

Rev general and . side curve

-

. ) of 100 3 N=62 R=0.36 (10) LordCochrane new

WFR

. (a)

Model than

-

150 closure N=83 R=0.66 (3) Balmaceda

Bulk

-72 . . and in

convection

,

M . the

arctic

eta of in by

mean 136 and For of J convective .

the - .

100

-71.5

Rasmussen,

the Atmos

Microphysics

was -

the improved 100 50

,

the the the simulated simulates coordinate

simulation

5095 monthly 47 comparison schemes air

-

-71

50

mountain climática 0 1250 2500 3750 5000 6250 7500 8750 10000 11250 12500 13750 15000 precipitation annual

° - - - - 200 150 100 100 150 200 - Depto. de GeofísicaU. de Chile Centro de Estudios Científicos Dirección Meteorológica de Chile - mass S 100 100 . 50 50 -

50 50 0

0 – Sci observed

0 0

Precipitation (mm) 5115 (b) adjustment b) Precipitation (mm) 100 150 200 250 300 350

. 50

, Altitude (m) results

0 .

precipitation,

4000 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

50

500 data 46 of

by William Mon

colder model

temperature -76 0 results . ene-00 Scheme

en

much may-00 doi ,

the 50 jul-00 100 the 3077 are

-75.5 sep-00 . sets :

during

Chile nov-00

Wea anomalies

10

of ene-01 :

precipitation

mar-01 150 model

D scheme further (warmer) the

-75 -

less may-01 show . . the 3107 1175 . . jul-01

100

.

Quart Part

Hall, sep-01

Rev para

200

-74.5 nov-01

winter

PRECIS ene-02 WRF the precipitation

/

. mar-02

2008 and

the is may-02

.

II Precipitation developments . , 2008 Observada ANNUAL

. -74

Modeled jul-02

- N=81 R=0.76 (4) BahíaMurta :

250 Part - 122 Balmaceda el

sep-02 250 N=43 R=0.63 13. Tortel J variability varies smoother PRECIS

Implementation Longitude

nov-02 .

effect model

temperatures monsoon

MWR ene-03 - -73.5 200 annual -

Roy siglo mar-03 200 , : (green

www.cecs.cl

Precipitations

II may-03

927 Explicit - www.dgf.uchile.cl 150

: jul-03 - model 150

Modelada

. -73 sep-03

Single www.meteochile.gob.cl

between Observed nov-03 2387 (N Meteor -

- of 100 - XXI ene-04 100 at

945

° in mar-04 -72.5

3

is

) may-04

that the - curve)

5 50

-

jul-04 50 mean experiment .

the - - - - Forecasts

250 200 150 100 100 150 200 250 .

. - - - -

-

250 200 150 100 100 150 200 250 50 sep-04 50 - 1 of well

( column 50 50 0 km 0 Departamento (mm)

20 nov-04 -72

0

. 0

orographic ene-06

the eastern Soc the WFR mar-06 of

for 0 50

resolution may-06 -71.5 50 km

simulated jul-06 . and a precipitation 72

sep-06 . 100

observed 100 convection,

, nov-06 New

tests

summer

resolution) ene-10

-71

112 of x 10 x in

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2

mar-10 150

150 surface

using may-10

4

side jul-10 Winter

Bahia ,

200 Snow sep-10

Precipitation (mm) 200 using

693

with nov-10 .

250 by de . 250

a

-

Elevations (m)