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Urban Change: Scale and Underlying Causes

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Urban Change: Scale and Underlying Causes URBAN CHANGE: SCALE AND UNDERLYING CAUSES The Case of Pakistan Text : Arif Hasan Tables : Reza Ali, Mansoor Raza, Masooma Mohib Page 1 of 160 Acknowledgements In February 1999, David Satterthwaite at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) (UK) contacted me for preparing a study on Urban Change in Pakistan. This is one of eight studies which the European Union has funded. The study has taken three years to complete. The reason for this is that the Pakistan census data for the 1998 population and housing census was published only in October 2001, although census data for the various districts of Pakistan was available earlier. Also, it was a time consuming exercise converting the data of the various census since 1901 to the form it has in this report. However, tables, based on the districts and unpublished data, were sent to the IIED earlier this year. The detailed tables for Pakistan (unless specified otherwise at the bottom of the tables) have been prepared by Architect-Planner Reza Ali. He is currently working on a major study for the Urbanization Research Programme funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and the Water and Sanitation Program-South Asia. The tables for Karachi have been prepared by Engineer Mansoor Raza and the report has been put together with the assistance of Architect Masooma Mohib and Israr Ahmad Rana. Financial support for this work has also been provided by the Asian Coalition for Housing Rights (ACHR) Bangkok. Arif Hasan September 16, 2002 Page 2 of 160 Contents The Political Importance of Urbanization in the Pakistan Context ................................................. 1 Differences in Population and Surface Area of Provinces ............................................................... 2 SCALE, CAUSES AND REPERCUSSIONS OF URBANIZATION ............................................................. 3 Causes of Urbanization and its Repercussions ............................................................................ 3 Migration from India ................................................................................................................... 3 The Demographic Impact ........................................................................................................ 3 The Socio-Political Impact ....................................................................................................... 4 The Physical Impact ................................................................................................................. 5 The Case of Sindh .................................................................................................................... 5 The Earlier Punjab Migration ................................................................................................... 6 Migration from Afghanistan .................................................................................................... 6 Rapid Increase in Urbanization 1951-1981 ..................................................................................... 8 Statistics of Population Growth ................................................................................................... 8 Introduction of Immunization and Eradication of Malaria ......................................................... 8 Rural-Urban Migration Due to the Green Revolution ................................................................. 8 Industrialization ........................................................................................................................... 8 The Suzuki Revolution ................................................................................................................. 9 Repercussions of the 1951-1981 Urban Growth ......................................................................... 9 b) Physical ................................................................................................................................ 9 c) Administrative ................................................................................................................... 11 d) Socio-political and Economic Repercussions .................................................................... 11 The 1981-1998 Intercensal Period ................................................................................................ 12 Decrease in Population Growth Rate ........................................................................................ 12 Reasons for the Decrease in Growth Rate ................................................................................ 12 a) Second Generation of City Dwellers .................................................................................. 12 b) Increased Literacy ............................................................................................................. 12 c) Decline in the Marriage Population and Fertility .............................................................. 13 d) Population Planning .......................................................................................................... 13 e) Migration Abroad .............................................................................................................. 13 Repercussions of the 1981-1998 Demographic Trends ............................................................ 14 a) Increase in Informal Settlements ...................................................................................... 14 Page 3 of 160 b) Improved Environmental Conditions at the Neighbourhood level ................................... 14 c) Deterioration at the Macro Level: Causes and Repercussions .......................................... 14 d) Water and Land Issues ...................................................................................................... 16 e) Change in Settlement Patterns ......................................................................................... 16 f) Emergence of Urban Conglomerates ................................................................................. 17 URBANIZATION: PROVINCIAL DIFFERENCES ................................................................................. 18 Size and Distribution of Urban Populations .............................................................................. 18 Socio-economic Differences ...................................................................................................... 19 Physical Conditions in the Urban Areas..................................................................................... 19 Ethnicity ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Reasons for the Differences ...................................................................................................... 20 THE RURAL-URBAN DIVIDE ........................................................................................................ 20 THE CASE OF KARACHI ................................................................................................................... 21 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 23 Appendices: Appendix – 1 : How Urban is Pakistan? By Reza Ali Appendix – 2 : Definition of Urban in Different Census Reports of Pakistan Appendix – 3 : Environmental Issues of the Urban Settlements of Pakistan Page 4 of 160 Chapter 1 The Political Importance of Urbanization in the Pakistan Context Pakistan is a federation of four provinces. These provinces are Sindh, Punjab, North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan. There are also federally administered areas such as the capital city of Islamabad and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). When the 1998 Census was taken, the 2001 Devolution Plan of the government had not been implemented. Under the old structure, the provinces were divided into districts and the districts into tehsils (subdivision of district) and the tehsils into union councils. Cities between 500,000 and 2.5 million populations had municipal corporations. Towns between 25,000 and 500,000 had municipal committees. Towns less than 25,000 had town committees. The census tables reflect this administrative structure. In the case of Karachi, the city was divided into five districts, each having a municipal authority of its own with a central municipal authority known as the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation. The census results of Karachi therefore are given district-wise. For the purpose of this report they have been put together but the district-wise breakdown has also been maintained. The country has an elected national assembly, which is the lower house of parliament, and a senate which constitutes the upper house. In addition, each province has an elected provincial assembly. FATA and Islamabad are represented in the national assembly but have no representative government of their own. Pakistan contains 2.3 per cent of the world’s population. It is the seventh most populist country in the world. According to the 1998 Census, its population was 132.4 million and had grown at the rate of 2.6 per cent per year in the intercensal period. Its urban population on the other hand had grown at the rate of 3.5 per cent per year during the same period and was estimated at 43 million. Demographers have questioned these figures, especially in relation to the urban population which they feel has been
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