MEMO: To: House Republican Campaigns From: Matt Gorman, NRCC Communications Director RE: 2018 Update

Summer is over and the final stretch of the 2018 campaign is underway.

House Democrats claim to have the largest battlefield they’ve ever had, but – as current outside spending would indicate – what we see now is a district battleground that is almost exactly what many expected in January 2017.

In spite of history and conventional wisdom inside the Beltway, as it stands today, Republicans are well-positioned to maintain control of the House.

This is a testament to several factors:

The Cavalry Is Coming

• Thanks to record fundraising, the NRCC has announced over $62 million in ad reservations across 11 states—and that’s likely just the beginning.

• Those reservations are in addition to the $1.2 million in ads already run in 8 states during the month of August.

Facing Historic Challenges With Clear Eyes

• The NRCC entered this cycle with a full understanding that history was not on our side.

• Because of that, the committee counseled candidates to run each day—no matter the district or previous election results—as if they were 10 points down.

• That mindset enabled candidates to sharpen their campaign teams, raise money, and prepare for battle earlier than they ever had before.

Record Fundraising

• The NRCC put an emphasis on fundraising early in the cycle.

• This effort led to nearly $145 million raised to date – more than the committee has ever posted at this point.

• Current cash-on-hand figures show the NRCC trailing our Democratic counterparts by less than $5 million – hardly an advantage when Democrats must heavily invest in the most expensive media markets in the country if they hope to take back the House.

A Clear Contrast

• With the coming air war across the television and digital landscape this fall, it’s crucial to draw a clear contrast between our party and the Democrats.

• is the most unpopular politician in every competitive district in the country. That is not spin; that is a stone-cold fact backed by our polling.

• Thanks to Danny O’Connor’s stumble on national TV, it’s clear that Democrats—when forced with a binary choice for speaker between the 2 parties—will choose Pelosi.

• The record economic gains, thanks to the tax cuts passed by the GOP, continue to raise wages and lower unemployment.

• Tough opposition research will continue to pay dividends in defining Democratic candidates— as it has with Amy McGrath and Scott Wallace.

Resilient Republican Incumbents

• Internal polls have nearly every Republican incumbent in the lead or within the margin of error—even in states such as Virginia, , and New York.

• Roughly 80% of Republican incumbents ranked by Cook Political Report as Lean Republican or worse still maintain a cash-on-hand advantage.

• Members have spent the last 20 months focusing on the district-specific issues voters care about.

Strong Recruits

• In open seats, Republicans have a historic class of recruits with diverse backgrounds and life experiences.

• Candidates such as Young Kim, Lea Marquez Peterson, , Diane Harkey, and represent the future of the Republican Party and are running in some of the most competitive districts in the country.

Progressives Hijacked The Democratic Party

• According to polling, Democrats simply aren’t a viable alternative in the eyes of persuadable voters because they’re too liberal.

• Progressives have full control over the direction of the party – forcing candidates to support policies like single-payer health care, abolishing ICE, and undoing the Republican tax plan.

(BITLY LINK)

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