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Weichai Power-A 30 Jun 2020 CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Sector Update China Construction Machinery & HDT Sector Raise industry sales forecast in 2020E-21E; Solid upcycle OUTPERFORM (Maintain) We believe the timely issuance of local government bonds since early this year China Capital Goods will continue to lend strong support to the infrastructure growth and machinery demand going forward. In addition, strict measures on emission control and Wayne Fung, CFA market share gain remain the key positive factors for the industry leaders. We (852) 3900 0826 revise up our HDT and excavator sales projection in 2020E-21E. Our key BUY [email protected] calls are Sinotruk (3808 HK, TP: HK$26, Top pick), Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH, TP: RMB93), SANY Heavy (600031 CH, TP: RMB24.7) and Weichai Power (2338 HK, TP: HK$18.6; 000338 CH, TP: RMB16.6). Besides, we continue to like the long-term structural growth story of Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, TP: RMB81). Local government bond issuance on track. The amount of local government bond issued surged 3.3x YoY to RMB1.3tn in May. In 5M20, a total amount of RMB3.2tn were raised, up 65% YoY. Excluding bonds for refinancing, the amount of new bond issuance reached RMB2.7tn in 5M20, representing ~95% of the quota assigned by the Ministry of Finance. The investment mainly covers the infrastructure projects. In May, infrastructure FAI Related Reports grew 10.9% YoY, accelerated from 4.8% in Apr. We expect the momentum to 1. Zhejiang Dingli – A (603338 CH, BUY) – Riding on the strong continue. momentum; Raised earnings est. Higher HDT sales forecast. We expect the demand for HDT will be well & TP – 8 Jun 2020 2. China Construction Machinery supported by the infrastructure spending, stringent measures on anti- Sector – Excavator sales in Apr overloading, and the ongoing elimination of NES III trucks. We revise up our +60% YoY; Growth to continue to 2020E/21E HDT sales forecast by 16%/8% to 1.36mn/1.27mn units. We May/Jun – 12 May 2020 3. China Construction Machinery & expect a 15% YoY sales growth in Jun-Dec 2020, after a 17% YoY growth in HDT Sector – HDT sales +43% 5M20, which will take the full year growth to 16% YoY. We forecast the HDT YoY in Apr; Expect robust growth sales to drop 7% YoY in 2021E and stabilize in 2022E. We believe our for other machinery – 11 May 2020 4. SANY Heavy Industry – A (600031 assumption is not aggressive given that the GDP value per operating HDT will CH, BUY) – 2019 net profit +83% remain stable at RMB12mn. Such figure will be similar to the average over the YoY in line; Expect a strong 2Q20 past few years, and higher than the figure of RMB10mn in 2010 when the – 24 Apr 2020 5. China Construction Machinery sector started seeing overcapacity. Sector – Lift forecast on excavator on strong demand; BUY SANY & Higher excavator sales forecast. Excavator is highly exposed to Hengli – 13 Apr 2020 infrastructure spending. We revise up our excavator sales forecast in 6. Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808 HK, 2020E/2021E by 4%. We expect sale volume growth in Jun-Dec 2020E to BUY) – Returning to growth territory in 2020E – 2 Apr 2020 reach 15%, taking the full year growth to 17%. We expect a 5% growth in 7. Zoomlion (1157 HK, BUY) – 2021E, driven by continuous elimination of low NES models, replacement of Dividend cut a surprise; Positive labour and substitution of wheel loaders. We estimate every 1% increase in on the recovery story – 31 Mar 2020 infrastructure FAI will drive 2.5% of annual excavator sales. 8. Weichai Power (2338 HK, BUY) – Correction offers buying Major catalysts: Based on our check, we believe the industry sales figure of opportunity; Diversification HDT and excavator in Jun (to be released in the first and second week of Jul, strategy on track – 30 Mar 2020 respectively) will remain strong given the strong infrastructure spending and 9. China Construction Machinery Sector – Four structural drivers to low base effect. Following that, we expect earnings surprise in 2Q20E, driven extend the upcycle to 2020-21E – by strong operating leverage. 27 Nov 2019 Please cast your valuable vote for CMBIS research team in the 2020 Asiamoney Brokers Poll: https://euromoney.com/brokers PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 1 MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: CMBR AND http://www.cmbi.com.hk 30 Jun 2020 Company snapshot Sinotruk (3808 HK, BUY, TP: HK$26.0) - Recovery underestimated by market; our top pick We incorporate our new HDT industry sales forecast into our model and revise up Sinotruk’s earnings forecast in 2020E-22E by 10-12%, making us 27-29% above consensus. We believe Sinotruk’s sales recovery and strong operating leverage are substantially underestimated by the market. Our TP is lifted from HK$20.5 to HK$26, based on 6x 2020E EV/EBITDA (up from 5x to reflect the resumption of growth, and in line with our target multiple for Weichai). Sinotruk is now our sector top pick. Weichai Power (2338 HK, BUY, TP: HK$18.6; 000338 CH, BUY, TP: RMB16.6) - Higher HDT and engine assumptions; further market share gain We maintain our positive view on Weichai: (1) The increased number of Shandong provincial SOEs under the control of SHIG, parent company of Weichai, will help boost Weichai’s upcoming sales of engines and powertrain; (2) Strong infrastructure spending growth should boost the demand for construction trucks and machinery in 2H20E; (3) Industry consolidation will continue on the back of the implementation of strict emission standard. We incorporate our new HDT & construction machinery forecast into our model and revise up Weichai’s earnings forecast in 2020E/22E by 3-7%, making us 5-7% above consensus. Our H-share SOTP-based TP is lifted from HK$16.0 to HK$18.6, while our A- share SOTP-based TP is lifted from RMB14.3 to RMB16.6. Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH, BUY, TP: RMB93) – Order intake remains strong We incorporate our new industry sales forecast of excavator into our model and revise up Hengli’s earnings forecast in 2020E-22E by 9-11%, making us 10-13% above consensus. Hengli is highly exposed to the infrastructure spending growth. Besides, Hengli’s growth will be driven by motor, pump & valve, where import substitution potential remains huge. We believe all these will continue to support Hengli’s premium valuation. We raise our TP to RMB93 from RMB85, based on unchanged 45x 2020E P/E multiple. SANY Heavy Industry – A (600031 CH, BUY, TP: RMB24.7) – Growth at a reasonable price We incorporate our new industry sales forecast for excavator into our model and revise up SANY’s earnings forecast in 2020E-22E by 5-7%, making us 5-8% above consensus. We expect SANY to deliver continuous market share gain. Besides, we expect solid replacement demand on concrete machinery in 2020E-21E. We raise our TP from RMB23.5 to RMB24.7, based on 14.3x 2020E P/E (multiple unchanged). Trading at <11x 2020E P/E in the A-share market, we believe SANY remains a good value play under our universe. PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 30 Jun 2020 Figure 1: Peers comp table Ticker Company Rating Price TP Upside/ Market cap PE (x) PB (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Yield (%) (local (local (downside) (US$ mn) FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E currency) currency) HK listed 631 HK Equity SANY INTERNATIONAL BUY 3.52 5.92 68% 1,402 8.9 6.7 1.3 1.1 5.3 4.0 4.5 3339 HK Equity LONKING HOLD 2.27 2.30 1% 1,244 6.9 7.0 0.9 0.9 3.5 3.6 9.4 1157 HK Equity ZOOMLION HEAVY-H BUY 5.80 6.90 19% 6,678 8.2 7.4 0.9 0.8 6.7 6.1 3.0 2338 HK Equity WEICHAI POWER-H BUY 14.34 18.60 30% 14,918 10.2 9.0 1.9 1.7 4.9 4.3 3.9 3808 HK Equity SINOTRUK HK LTD BUY 19.92 26.00 31% 7,043 9.0 8.7 1.6 1.4 4.4 4.2 3.9 1839 HK Equity CIMC VEHICLES -H BUY 5.45 6.60 21% 1,232 6.6 6.2 0.8 0.8 4.1 3.9 4.5 564 HK Equity ZHENGZHOU COAL-H NR 3.43 - - 1,320 4.7 4.3 0.5 0.4 3.7 3.5 3.2 HK listed average 7.8 7.0 1.1 1.0 4.6 4.2 4.6 A share 000338 CH Equity WEICHAI POWER-A BUY 13.51 16.60 23% 15,441 10.9 9.7 2.1 1.8 5.2 4.6 3.7 601100 CH Equity JIANGSU HENGLI-A BUY 75.19 93.00 24% 9,626 36.5 29.4 9.7 7.9 30.5 25.3 1.1 603338 CH Equity ZHEJIANG DINGLI -A BUY 75.00 81.00 8% 5,285 38.8 27.4 9.0 7.0 34.3 23.8 0.5 600031 CH Equity SANY HEAVY-A BUY 18.64 24.70 33% 22,823 10.8 9.7 2.8 2.3 8.4 7.8 2.9 000157 CH Equity ZOOMLION HEAVY-A BUY 6.21 6.85 10% 6,913 10.0 9.0 1.1 1.0 8.1 7.5 2.5 000425 CH Equity XCMG-A NR 5.86 - - 6,663 9.9 8.3 1.3 1.1 9.3 8.3 1.9 000528 CH Equity GUANGXI LIUGONG-A NR 6.26 - - 1,341 7.4 6.2 0.8 0.7 7.9 7.1 3.5 603638 CH Equity YANTAI EDDIE P NR 49.13 - - 4,270 57.1 43.1 12.6 10.1 43.9 34.2 0.3 600761 CH Equity ANHUI HELI CO-A NR 9.56 - - 1,027 9.9 8.9 1.3 1.2 5.0 4.5 3.8 603298 CH Equity HANGCHA GROUP-A NR 10.82 - - 1,361 10.3 8.9 1.7 1.5 7.9 6.8 4.4 000951 CH Equity CNHTC JINAN T-A NR 29.15 - - 2,839 13.7 12.7 2.4 2.4 9.4 8.8 2.1 601717 CH Equity ZHENGZHOU COAL-A NR 5.81 - - 1,366 9.0 8.2 0.9 0.7 7.0 6.8 1.7 600582 CH Equity TIAN DI -A NR 2.91 - - 1,748 10.0 8.7 n/a n/a 4.5 4.0 2.4 A-share average 14.8 12.4 2.8 2.3 11.2 9.6 2.6 Overseas CAT US Equity CATERPILLAR INC NR 122.4 - - 66,242 24.5 17.3 4.8 5.1 10.8 9.3 3.5 DE US Equity DEERE & CO NR 149.0 - - 46,628 24.5 17.4 3.8 3.5 18.8 14.1 2.0 6305 JP Equity HITACHI CONST NR 2,939.0 - - 5,884 24.2 15.4 1.3 1.2 11.0 9.3 1.7 6301 JP Equity KOMATSU LTD NR 2,153.0 - - 19,488 18.1 13.9 1.1 1.1 9.4 8.1 3.3 042670 KS Equity DOOSAN INFRACORE NR 6,790.0 - - 1,220 6.9 5.9 0.6 0.5 6.7 6.1 0.0 VOLVB SS Equity VOLVO AB-B NR 146.7 33,552 26.4 14.2 2.0 1.9 12.8 9.5 4.6 Average 20.8 14.0 2.2 2.2 11.6 9.4 2.5 Hydraulic
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