Biden Administration and the Future of Afghan Peace Talks Hopes and Fears

POLICY BRIEF

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AND THE FUTURE OF AFGHAN PEACE TALKS HOPES AND FEARS

What does a Biden administration mean for the Afghan Peace Talks?

December 2020

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AND THE FUTURE OF AFGHAN PEACE TALKS HOPES AND FEARS

What does a Biden administration mean for the Afghan Peace Talks?

DISCLAIMER This paper was produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Section 1. Changing of the Guard in Washington D.C. – Hopes and Fears in Kabul

Section 2. Withdrawal of US Troops and Its Impact on the Afghan Peace Process

Section 3. The Incoming Biden Administration – What do we know about their tentative views on Afghanistan?

Section 4. In the Interim – the best and worst case scenarios until President Trump leaves office?

Section 5. Lessons learnt from the Intra-Afghan Negotiations in Doha: 65 Days of IAN

Section 6. Conclusion and Recommendations

References

Introduction Kabul is bracing itself to deal with a continuation of Trump policies i.e. sticking to new incoming US administration but at the the Doha deal i.e. peace talks coupled with same time is fearful that President Trump gradual drawdown, or renegotiating certain could pull the plug in the interim until he parts of the US-Taliban Doha agreement and leaves office to both corner and tie the hands leaving a residuals force behind to safeguard of a Biden administration leaving them with US national security interests and the gains of little room for maneuver. Or he might just the last two decades in which he himself has start a war with Iran, which would further played a critical role. complicate the Afghan peace process. Therefore, all indications are that a future While a Biden administration represents hope Biden administration would not drastically and a break away from the Trump policies to change the policy of reconciliation and end the US “forever wars” in an irresponsible gradual drawdown but rather tweak it and as and rushed manner e.g. Syrian and Somali but was pointed by Biden’s Secretary of State it can also present a unique set of challenges Designate Tony Blinken go for a responsible given Biden views on Afghanistan as a drawdown. In such a context, a US troops senator, Vice President and now as President- surge, which some might hope tame Taliban’s elect. recent spike in violence, is unthinkable at this stage considering President-elect Biden’s Then Vice President Biden was against the positions on this matter in the past. Obama surge and also had a few clashes with Afghan leaders over issues ranging from The changing of guards in Washington D.C. corruption to good governance. President- presents an opportunity for the Afghan elect Biden also has a unique set of views on Government to engage in a multi-pronged Pakistan and the role this country has played diplomacy in the United States and the new in the region and the famous episode in which US administration to rectify some of the he told former Afghan President Hamid policy errors which Special Envoy Zalmay Karzai that Pakistan is fifty times more Khalilzad committed by giving too many important than Afghanistan. incentives and leverage to the Taliban in return for a spike in violence. This will require In light of these, the views on Afghan policy a new and empowered Afghan diplomatic within the future Biden administration, team in Washington D.C. to pursue such considering his picks for Secretaries of States policy objectives. and Defense, could range between

Section 1. Changing of the Guard in Washington D.C. – Fears and Hopes in Kabul

1.1.The US-Taliban Peace Agreement Matters

The inception of the intra-Afghan peace future of Afghan peace process differ talks in Doha coincided with the US respectively. presidential campaigns. As a result, an Although the Afghan Government was not a increased level of uncertainty about the US party to the US- Taliban agreement, President foreign policy toward Afghanistan and its Ghani and his government eventually peace process shadowed the peace talks. The complied with the terms of the Doha two negotiating parties- the Islamic Republic agreement. The release of Taliban prisoners of Afghanistan and the Islamic Emirate of the from government jails paved the way for the Taliban, plus the wider Afghan constituency, inception of intra-Afghan negotiations. closely followed the result of the elections as According to the agreement, the United Sated it provided them a level of predictability about started to withdraw its forces from the future relations between the two countries Afghanistan. Overall, all major parties to the as well as the future of Afghanistan’s peace conflict- including the government of process. A range of policy issues, such as Afghanistan, the Taliban and the US, shared withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in the benefits of the Doha peace deal. It gave the face of terrorist threats, financial support the US a withdrawal roadmap, gave the of the international community for the Afghan Taliban the recognition as co-founder of a government, regional fears and hopes as well future Islamic government in Afghanistan, as NATO engagement, contribute to the and for the first time, the agreement development of intra-Afghan negotiation. convinced the Taliban to sit and talk to the The US-Taliban peace agreement signed on Afghan government. In other words, the Doha February 2020, largely, guides the course of agreement paved the way for recognition of US- Afghan relationship for near future. In the Afghan Government by the Taliban. this perspective, no matter who takes the oath Therefore, all parties, including the President- of office in Washington, the Doha agreement elect Biden, the Afghan Government and the remains the number one priority for all major Taliban, consider the Doha agreement as parties, though their concerns towards the framework for further interactions.

Though the February 2020 Doha agreement is Taliban cut ties with Al-Qaeda and other considered a Trump-Taliban achievement, terrorists deemed dangerous to the US consecutive US administrations tried to security.1 Indeed through the Doha agreement conclude the war in Afghanistan and bring US the US successfully reduced the war in troops home. Moreover, from Biden’s view Afghanistan to a counterterrorism problem. point, the US troops surge in Afghanistan was The US involvement in Afghanistan is never considered a good policy option. It is divided across a diplomatic dimension expected that when Biden occupies his office focused on intra-Afghan negotiations, and he would stick with the Doha agreement while military dimension focused on reconsidering the speed of troops withdrawal. counterterrorism.2 The new US Keeping a small squad of counterterrorist administration has to put an end to an military elite in Afghanistan corresponds with unpopular war while making sure that the the idea that the US has to make sure that Afghan Government is not totally lost.3

1.2. Kabul- Regional Fears and Hopes

From the perspective of the Afghan so far will be reviewed and reevaluated under the government, the coming to power of new government in the United States,” Afghan President-elect Joe Biden heralds a new Second Vice President Sarwar Danish said on opportunity for political bargaining and November 9.4 The Afghan Government views policy review. Although recent withdrawal of itself as the US ally in the war against US troops from Afghanistan reduced the terrorism. The threat of ISIS raising in leverage of Mr. Biden over Taliban, the Afghanistan remains a serious challenge Afghan Government and its supporters hope while the Taliban still maintain links with Al- that the US administration take side with the Qaeda and other regional terrorist Afghan Government in the implementation of organizations. This concern of the Afghan the Doha agreement. “We hope that the process Government is shared by its international

1 Diaa Hadid , “What Joe Biden's Presidency May pinned-hopes-for-change-on-biden-but-u-s-likely-to- Mean For Afghanistan,” November 18, 2020, stay-course-set-by-trump/30948839.html. 3 Carter Malkasian, “Opinions: Joe Biden Is Facing a https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/nov/18/what Dead End in Afghanistan,” The Washington Post, -a-joe-biden-presidency-may-mean-for/. accessed December 15, 2020, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/opinions-joe- 2 Frud Bezhan, “Afghanistan Pinned Hopes For biden-is-heading-to-a-dead-end-in-afghanistan/ar- Change On Biden, But U.S. Likely To Stay Course BB1biki0. Set By Trump,” December 14, 2020, 4 Ibid. https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/insight-afghanistan-

6 allies. For instance, the recent accouchement certain issues including how to treat the of the US Acting Defense Secretary Taliban diplomatically and how to facilitate Christopher Miller regarding the withdrawer the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. of half of US troops by January15 prompted As a US ally, the Afghan Government hopes NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s that Washington’s review of its policy toward to warn that a hasty withdrawal could risk peace process in Afghanistan gives the Afghanistan "becoming once again a platform Afghan Government more decisive role in for international terrorists to plan and articulating the terms of a political organize attacks on our homelands"; he settlement.8 By releasing thousands of suggested that the Islamic State "could rebuild Taliban prisoners, the Afghan Government in Afghanistan the terror caliphate it lost in endorsed the US sponsored peace plan with Syria and Iraq."5 Regional countries, such as the Taliban. However, the Afghan Iran6 and China7, also fear that a hasty US government, with the support of regional withdrawal from Afghanistan could leave the countries, may have the upper hand in setting space open for maneuvering of regional the terms for a post-conflict reintegration. In terrorist organizations across the region. the meantime, several problems on part of the Regional calls for a responsible US Taliban persist. It is yet to cut ties with Al- withdrawal are in line with the Afghan Qaeda and other regional terrorist government’s concerns about a hasty US organizations. Taliban’s links with illegal withdrawal. Given the continued US concern economy significantly undermine its regarding the threat of Islamist terrorism, the diplomatic status. Therefore, all things being Afghan Government alongside regional equal, the Taliban is not in a position of countries may concert diplomatic efforts to dictating the terms of a post-conflict influence the US policy toward Afghanistan. integration if the Afghan Government manage However, for that to happen, a regional to mobilize its political capital in terms of display of concerns about the threat of regional fears and hopes. This is especially terrorism and hasty US withdrawal need to relevant in the context of regional cooperation ascend to explicit regional consensus over

5 Ibid https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/china- 6 Gulabudin Ghubar, “Iran in Favor of 'Responsible' calls-responsible-us-withdrawal-afghanistan. Afghanistan Withdrawal: Official,” TOLOnews, 8 Karen DeYoung Susannah George, “With Biden accessed December 15, 2020, Headed to White House, Afghan Government Hopes https://tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan-167784. for Tougher Stance on Taliban,” The Washington 7 Ayaz Gul, “China Calls for 'Responsible' US Post, November 10, 2020), Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Voice of America, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/a accessed December 15, 2020, fghanistan-peace-talks-biden/2020/11/09/713498e0- 1de5-11eb-ad53-4c1fda49907d_story.html.

7 and connectivity. Most recently in a National altogether. Even Pakistan, the traditional Security Council (NSC) meeting on supporter of the Taliban, was not included in Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace the Doha agreement.10 In fact the Doha and Soldiary (APAPPS), President Ghani, agreement rendered regional countries as reiterated his desire for a shared regional irrelevant. Instead of involving major regional economic vison across Pakistan – Central players, such as Iran, Pakistan, Russia and Asian region.9 China in the US-Taliban peace agreement, Washington decided to conclude a bilateral However, the big challenge here is that no peace with the Taliban. By doing so, regional explicit regional consensus exists regarding aspects of the conflict in Afghanistan were major issues, such as how to deal with the sidelined and as a result regional countries, Taliban diplomatically and how to facilitate a each pursued their own policies toward the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Various peace process in Afghanistan. Given that regional countries have their own diplomatic during Trump administration US relations postures when it comes to dealing with the with regional countries, especially with Iran Taliban. The Afghan Government has several and China, experienced a downturn, one may times complained that regional countries hold hope that coming to power of Biden, provide diplomatic meetings with Taliban without the more space for regional cooperation on the consent and awareness of the Afghan Afghan peace process. Both China11 and government. Also there is no regional Iran12 hope for improved bilateral relationship consensus on how to facilitate a responsible with US through Biden’s presidency. US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban already threatened that a A major reason behind lack of a regional continued US presence in Afghanistan is not consensus toward the peace process in acceptable; that they will resume attacks Afghanistan is that the Doha agreement against US targets if the Doha agreement is ignored regional players and actors violated.13 The Taliban hopes that the new US

9 “Ghani Discusses Security and Border Control Plans Morning Post, December 18, 2020, at NSC Meeting ,” Ariana News, December 14, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/ https://ariananews.af/ghani-discusses-security-and- 3114596/chinas-foreign-minister-calls-us-president- border-control-plans-at-nsc-meeting/. elect-joe-biden. 10 Carlo J.V. Caro, “The Biden Administration Needs 12 Ahmet Dursun , “Biden Presidency 'Opportunity for to Junk Trump's Deal With the Taliban,” The Dialogue with Iran',” Anadolu Ajansı, accessed Diplomat, November 13, 2020, December 19, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/the-biden- https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/biden-presidency- administration-needs-to-junk-trumps-deal-with-the- opportunity-for-dialogue-with-iran/2038308. taliban/. 13 David Brennan, “Taliban Threatens Renewed 11 Liu Zhen , “China's Foreign Minister Urges Biden Fighting in Afghanistan, Blaming U.S. for Breaking to 'Restart Dialogue' with Beijing,” South China Ceasefire,” Newsweek, October 18, 2020,

8 administration takes the Doha agreement as is curbing and controlling various terrorist and implement it accordingly. "We signed the organizations who would threaten the US and agreement with the American government, not a its allies. In this perspective, the Taliban will person. We hope that the process that has started try to mobilize all its political capital to ensure will not be weakened but rather strengthened." regional and neighboring countries that Mohammad Naeem, a spokesman for the Taliban will not pose any threats to them Taliban, told AFP on November 8.14 In this when they gain power as part of a peace deal. perspective, the Taliban seems to be sure of While lacking a proper diplomatic character, its diplomatic status, at least in the context of the Taliban insists that it is capable of playing Afghan-US relationship. Since the Afghan a functional role in reducing regional Government was not a party to the Doha tensions. agreement, the Taliban will try its best to stick Meanwhile, the international community, with the Doha agreement and not let anyone through aid pledges, intervene the Intra- to revise it. A continued presence of US Afghan Negotiations. After all, hopes and troops in Afghanistan, even in small numbers, fears both in Kabul and Doha directly relate means that the Taliban will never win the war to the financial assistance coming to militarily. The Taliban hopes to convince the Afghanistan in the name of Afghan people. US administration that after a complete US Both the Afghan negotiating team and the withdrawal from Afghanistan, a dominant Taliban need to make sure to secure future Taliban will play the role of regional police foreign aid for Afghanistan.15

https://www.newsweek.com/taliban-threatens- 15 Abdul Raqeeb Sail ,“Geneva Conference Pledges ceasefire-1540093. $13b Conditional Aid,” Pajhwok, accessed December 14 Ibid. 15, 2020, https://pajhwok.com/2020/11/25/geneva- conference-pledges-13b-conditional-aid/.

Section 2. Withdrawal of US Troops and Its Impact on the Afghan Peace Process

Amid an unabated level of violence, also the protection of the Afghan people and the U.S. Department of Defense, on 17 also to assist our allies and partners, who November, announced drawdown of 2000 support this decision,” adding that “the troops from Afghanistan by mid-January number of troops that we will go to by 15 2021, leaving 2500 in the country, with U.S. January, 2,500, can accomplish everything we Department of Defense officials calling it “the have been doing.”17 best number,”16 without clarifying that how However, they also noted that the U.S. many soldier from what missions will be can increase their forces in Afghanistan if called back. “there be a fracturing event or a dynamic Although the U.S. troop withdrawal, situation in Afghanistan, both the secretary of as part of the U.S.-Taliban agreement, was defense and the president feel that we are well conditions-based, the U.S. Department of postured to augment our posture in Defense officials, on the day of announcing Afghanistan, should it need be done.” 18 troop withdrawal, said that “the conditions, However, Under Secretary for Political Affairs plural, have been discussed and met,” arguing of the U.S. Department of State, David Hale, at that “we've been clear that we would like to Geneva conference on 24 November, said that see reduced levels of violence in Afghanistan. “President Trump’s November 17 decision to We would like to see progress on the peace draw down the number of troops does not signal talks, and we're seeing that in both cases” and a change in policy. America remains “the two greatest concerns, about the committed to its enduring partnership with a protection of the American people and our sovereign, unified, stable, and representative interests, and the protection of the Afghan Afghanistan. We seek to preserve and build people, have been met.” In the meantime, they upon the considerable gains made over the past also noted that “our capabilities will remain 19 years. We also want to build on the historic sufficient to achieve both of our goals, which opportunities for Afghanistan as progress is the protection of the American people and towards peace continues.”19

16 U.S. Department of Defense. “Senior Defense Officials provide-background-briefing-on-afghanistan-and- Provide Background Briefing on Afghanistan and Iraq iraq-tr/source/GovDelivery/ Troop Reductions”, accessed 23 November: 17 Ibid. https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Tran 1818 Ibid. script/Article/2421804/senior-defense-officials- 19 The U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs David Hale. “Remarks at 2020 Afghanistan

The troop withdrawal announcement NATO’s Resolute Support. The training and was a unilateral move, which left the U.S. advising mission is generally conducted at the allies, particularly NATO’s mission in Ministry of Interior (MoI) and Ministry of Afghanistan, in a hard position. On the same Defense (MoD) in Kabul, headquarters of day of announcing troop withdrawal, NATO army corps and Afghan Air Forces at regional Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg voiced bases. A reduction in troops level to 2500 concern about an early withdrawal of U.S. would mean that this mission will be limited forces from Afghanistan, saying that “the to Kabul at MoI and MoD or at bases near to price for leaving too soon or in an Kabul. In the meantime, most of contractors uncoordinated way could be very high.” He who are involved in TAA mission will also further added that Afghanistan still “risks leave the country. With less assistance, advice becoming once again a platform for and training from the U.S. forces, the international terrorists to plan and organize operational capability of the Afghan security attacks on our homeland.” He insisted that forces will decrease. Consequently, the “we went into Afghanistan together. And terrorists’ organizations like Al-Qaeda and when the time is right, we should leave Islamic State will gain momentum for together in a coordinated and orderly way.”20 perpetrating terrorist activities, which will Overall, this move will inadvertently affect lead to dramatic rise in civilian casualty in the Afghan peace process, security situation, Afghanistan. the morale and operational capability of the The Afghan security forces are Afghan security forces. heavily dependent on air support of the U.S. 2.1. The impact on Security situation forces. The U.S. airstrikes against Taliban militants in Helmand and Kandahar provinces The U.S. forces in Afghanistan have two were critical in pushing them back over the missions, which are counter terrorism (CT) past months, as one of Afghan army conducted jointly with the Afghan security commander has told New York Times that “if forces and training, advising and assisting it were not for the air support of U.S. forces, (TAA) the Afghan National Defense and the Taliban would be sitting inside Kandahar Security Forces (ANDSF) together with city now.”21 Even though the U.S. forces have

Conference”. Accessed 25 November: https://www.dw.com/en/afghanistan-nato-chief- https://www.state.gov/remarks-at-2020-afghanistan- warns-against-hasty-troop-withdrawal/a-55632389. conference/. 21 New York Times. “What Will Happen in 20 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Afghanistan Once U.S. Troops Leave”. Accessed 23 “Afghanistan: NATO chief warns against hasty troop November: withdrawal”. Accessed 25 November:

11 continued their air support and airstrikes gone.” 24 Therefore, it is possible that with against Taliban militant so far, with reducing withdrawal of U.S. forces, the Taliban the number of troops, it is unclear whether or maintain its maximalist position in the not it would affects the scope of their air negotiations while battling the Afghan support to the Afghan security forces when Government on the battlefield. they come under Taliban attacks. A unilateral troops withdrawal also However, this move strongly encourages Taliban to even launch emboldens the Taliban, giving them conventional warfare against the Afghan momentum to battle the Afghan Government Government in areas where they have control without reducing violence level or distancing and are stronger. Therefore, unilateral itself from Al-Qaeda. Scott Worden from withdrawal without meeting the conditions United State Institute of Peace (USIP) argues agreed upon in the U.S.-Taliban agreement that “If the current trajectory continues, they emboldens the Taliban to not only increase its [Taliban] can anticipate retaining their violence but also continue its maximalist military capability to continue battling the position in peace negotiations. Afghan Government without taking difficult steps to eliminate al-Qaida safe havens.” 22 2.2. Impact on Peace Negotiations According to him, in this move, several By unilateral withdrawal, one of its likely “important conditions” have not been met. impact is that the Taliban may lose its interest Because, “the Taliban have increased the use in negotiations. According to Fawzia Koofi, a of violence against Afghan forces and have member of the Islamic Republic’s negotiating not demonstrably broken with al-Qaida or team, “emphasis on pulling out speedily has other dangerous terrorist groups.” 23 led to a ‘wrong perception’ among the Taliban Moreover, he argues that “the slow pace that they are in a win-win situation.” She of talks make it unclear whether the Taliban maintains that “It [early withdrawal] will give have any intention to reach a political the Taliban a position that, ‘No matter if we compromise with the government and other don’t win at the negotiating table, we will win political actors, or whether their strategy is to on the battlefield,” adding that “they will try simply step up the war after U.S. forces are

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/world/asia/afgh https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/11/afghanista anistan-troop-withdrawal.html. n-withdrawal-should-be-based-conditions-not- 22 Worden, Scott. “Afghanistan Withdrawal timelines Should Be Based on Conditions, Not Timelines”. 23 Ibid. Accessed 24 November: 24 Ibid.

12 to even further delay achieving something Consequently, with reducing the troop level, concrete on the negotiation table.”25 the Afghan Government may lose its key It is highly likely that the troop leverage in the negotiations. withdrawal strengthens the resolution of the Overall, considering the slow progress Taliban movement, particularly Taliban in peace talks and uncertainty on the prospect militants, to pursue military victory rather of a negotiated settlement, troop withdrawals, than a political settlement through in addition to diminishing Afghan people’s negotiations. In the meantime, foreign forces confidence in the future, without a are considered to be a key leverage for the comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in Afghan Government as they provide support place, make the progress in peace negotiations and advise to the Afghan security forces as and reaching to a political settlement less well as support them in the battlefield. likely.

25 CS Monitor. “For Afghans, U.S. troops ‘home by East/2020/1120/For-Afghans-US-troops-home-by- Christmas’ is gift to the Taliban”. Accessed 23 Christmas-is-gift-to-the-Taliban?cmpid=shared- November: twitter https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-

Section 3. Incoming Biden Administration – What do we know about their tentative views on Afghanistan? especially with his Special Envoy for Peace Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad whose unusual style of A Biden administration represents diplomacy made many people uneasy in hope for the Afghan Government due to Kabul and beyond. President Trump’s rush to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan in the absence of a On the other hand, many of the office holders comprehensive peace deal. Many Afghan in the current Afghan Government, including leaders and politicians felt that President President Ghani, Chairman Dr. Abdullah Trump left them out in the cold with the US- Abdullah and Foreign Minister Haneef Taliban agreement in Doha and undermined Atmar, among others, have dealt with the US-Afghanistan Bilateral Security President-elect Joe Biden on a variety of Agreement (BSA). Moreover, the sense of issues, both during his tenure a senator and betrayal and political expediency over a when he was the Vice President of the United genuine peace deal was rampant amongst States under Obama’s administration. Afghan policy makers and leaders. The President-elect Joe Biden equally knows United States partners in the Afghan Afghan leaders and have visited Afghanistan Government calculated that they could on numerous occasions He has also expressed weather out Trump and his administration opinions about the country in a stark manner through calculated delays and this proved to on a few occasions including the claim that be the right strategy not to offend an “Afghanistan is not one country”26,his famous unconventional and quite erratic President in episode27 over dinner with former President the White House. While President Ghani Hamid Karzai when he slammed the napkin consistently emphasized that he was one of on the table to express his frustration over the few world leaders who enjoyed a very rampant corruption in Afghanistan, and his cordial and good relationship with President claim that Pakistan is fifty times more Trump, in private his officials expressed important than Afghanistan to the United dismay over President Trump policies States. 28 Moreover, President- elect Joe Biden

26 Amiry, S., Amiry, S., & Sharif AmiryTOLOnews 27 Filkins, D. (2009, February 07). Leader of ReporterSharif Amiry reports on politics. (n.d.). Afghanistan Finds Himself Hero No More. Retrieved Biden's Comments Rile Up Afghans, Internationals. December 15, 2020, from Retrieved December 15, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/world/asia/08ka https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/biden%E2%80%99s rzai.html -comments-rile-afghans-internationals 28 Mazzetti, M. (2018, January 28). America's Longest War-and the Ally That Fuels It. Retrieved December

14 during his Vice Presidency under Obama Afghan policy and had direct or indirect roles administration opposed the Obama surge and towards the formulation of Obama was in favor of a light footprint residual administration’s Afghan policies. Counter Terrorism (CT) force. Even though When asked, Tony Blinken in a recent these views of President - elect Joe Biden was interview with Fareed Zakaria on GPS29 from his times as a senator and Vice President program at CNN called Trump and may have evolved, they still reveal administration’s decision to withdraw US insights into his potential views on troop from Afghanistan as irresponsible and Afghanistan. called for a residual US CT force to remain in the country to ensure US national security interests. Moreover, Secretary Designate 3.1. Team Biden Views on Afghanistan – Tony Blinken has also been an ardent From Secretary of State Designate Tony supporter of multilateralism; in case of Blinken to Secretary Defense Designate Afghan policymaking under the Trump General Llyod Austin administration many US allies felt left behind The best way to infer or predict how or in some cases totally neglected. General the potential Afghan policies of the incoming Austin is a veteran of both Iraq and Afghan Biden administration would look like is to wars. He served both in Afghanistan and Iraq look at his national security team more and as a former CENTCOM gcommander closely. Both Secretary of State Designate comes with an understanding of both Tony Blinken and Secretary of Defense conflicts. In a long piece for The Atlantic30 – Designate General Lloyd Austin are President - elect Biden argued that one of the experienced hands in foreign policy and reasons why he picked General Austin was his defense – one served as Deputy Secretary of experience and skills in the successful State and the other as the CENTCOM drawdown of US troops from Afghanistan. commander under Obama administration, This signals that one of the main duties of respectively. Both are veterans of Obama General Austin upon confirmation from the

15, 2020, from https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/0 30 Biden, J. (2020, December 08). Why I Chose Lloyd 3/the-pakistan-trap/550895/ Austin as Secretary of Defense. Retrieved December 15, 2020, from 29 Zakaria, F. (2020, October 18). On GPS: What a https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/se Biden foreign policy might look like - CNN Video. cretary-defense/617330/ Retrieved December 15, 2020, from https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/18/exp-gps- 1018-tony-blinken-biden-foreign-policy.cnn

United States Senate will be the responsible Afghan war. Generally, we can expect the drawdown of the US troops from following four major policy decision on the Afghanistan. part of the incoming Biden administration on Afghanistan: Therefore, Biden administration national security team are experienced hands who not a. Stick to the Afghan policy of national only believe in working with allies but also reconciliation most probably with a intend to drawdown US troops from new special envoy and diplomatic Afghanistan in a responsible manner. team. b. Work closely with NATO allies on

troops drawdown in a collective and 3.2. Biden Administration Policies responsible manner. Towards Afghanistan – What to Expect? c. Recalibrate and possibly renegotiate All indications are that the Biden certain parts of the US-Taliban Doha administration will stick to the policy of agreement due to ambiguities. national reconciliation and peace talks in d. Engage in a robust regional diplomacy Afghanistan, albeit with small changes. especially with Pakistan on Moreover, Biden is also keen to keep a small Afghanistan to ensure a responsible residual US force in the country for counter withdrawal of US troops from the terrorism purposes. He was a longtime country. advocate of such an approach towards the

Section 4. In the Interim – the best and worst case scenarios until President Trump leaves office?

4.1. The Struggle for Self-Reliance vs. Continued Dependency

During his presidency President Hopes for reduction of violence faded away Trump managed to consolidate a peace deal as the Taliban increased its attacks on with the Taliban and pave the way for the government positions. Suggesting that the inception of Intra-Afghan Negotiation. Doha agreement meant to guarantee peace However, within the next few weeks as between the US and the Taliban, the Taliban President-Elect Bidden prepares for his leadership insists that until a peace deal is inauguration, the Afghan negotiating parties reached with the Afghan Government it will need to prepare themselves for new rounds of continue fighting the Afghan government. In peace talks.31 The two sides ended their the meantime both parties hope that the new meetings in December promising to restart US administration take their side in the peace talks early next month. The most important process. The current stalemate in the Intra- element of the peace talks i.e. a ceasefire is yet Afghan Negotiations indicates that the to be realized as both parties search for process lacks an important component: trust common ground regarding the agenda for among Afghans. negotiations. Apparently, the two sides only agreed on procedural rules for continuing the negotiations.

4.2. Homework for Afghans – Consensus, Consensus and Consensus

While the international community conclusion and transfer power to the new provides logistical support for the Afghan administration. The President-Elect needs to peace process as well as giving it political from a new administration and revise legitimacy, Afghans failed to reach a strategies. But the coming weeks are consensus among themselves. The coming especially important for Afghan parties to the weeks are critical in several respects. The peace talks. They may continue waiting for Trump administration needs to make a the new US administration to take the

31 “Next Rounds of Talks Should Be Held in December 15, 2020, Afghanistan: Mohib,” TOLOnews, accessed https://tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan-168438.

17 initiative, or as Afghans, start mobilizing their as national actors who practically engage in resources for genuine national reconciliation. nation-building initiatives. The National Security Adviser, Hamdullah In his most recent comments at the Heart of Mohib, already invited the Taliban to meet the Asia Society’s 7th session, Taliban’s deputy Afghan government’s negotiating team inside leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar Afghanistan. He suggested that the next suggested that the next government should be rounds of the peace talks should take place an Islamic and Inclusive government where inside Afghanistan and that the Taliban may various constituencies including women and have the discretion of selecting a suitable the media, enjoy their rights.33 However, the venue for the talks. Mohib’s proposal is challenging question is why the Taliban does significant. Holding the Intra-Afghan peace not apply any of its supposedly Islamic talks inside Afghanistan has several potential inclusive solutions to address the basic need benefits: a) It brings Afghanistan a bit closer for ceasefire. The Taliban promises to create to self-reliance. b) It makes the Intra-Afghan a utopia for the Afghan people in the Negotiation a local event increasing its public unpredictable future while failing to care for trust in the peace process. c) Holding the daily suffering of the same constituency. If intra-Afghan negotiation within Afghanistan the Taliban is committed to building an requires certain levels of security cooperation inclusive Islamic government in the future, among the belligerent parties and may push why not practice such noble intentions with the two parties to cooperate with each other. their future partners now. The Taliban claims d) Making Afghanistan the venue for the to have the support of Afghan constituency Intra-Afghan peace talks limits external across the country and by accepting the call interference in the peace process. Mohib for holding the next rounds of negotiations rightly argues that the Intra-Afghan peace inside Afghanistan, they may be able to use talks, to a great extent, are overshadowed by their leverage to mobilize public opinion and external factors.32 By accepting Mohib’s increase their popularity. proposal, the Taliban may prove themselves

32 Ibid. December 15, 2020, 33 Sharif Amiry, “Taliban: Next Govt System Should https://tolonews.com/index.php/afghanistan-168400. Be Inclusive, Islamic,” TOLOnews, accessed

4. 3. US Priorities and Afghan Policy in the Interim

In the absence of intra-Afghan trust, to Afghans to make peace with each other, the whole course of the peace process will and c) Afghanistan is not the heart of US remain hostage to external factors, such as interest; therefore, several factors other than foreign funding. It is time for the two the daily suffering of the people of negotiating parties to identity and address the Afghanistan, contribute to how the US root causes of conflict and leave the many administration treat the peace process. issues of power-sharing aside. Without Significant variables are the regional dynamic sharing energy and resources to end the and how Afghans view themselves in the face ongoing bloodshed, the Afghan Government of unchangeable dimensions of the US policy. and the Taliban may agree upon a power- Afghan parties to the peace process may sharing deal, and still fail the people of compete with each other over the US Afghanistan. Power-sharing does not mean resources and regional leverages, but the anything if the two parties fail to share challenge is whether they manage to share interest. national interest and resources through local means and narratives. To this day both parties, In the next few weeks, the outgoing US especially the Taliban, focused on attracting administration puts the US constituency first; foreign leverage and resources. Making despite electoral grievances, it will make sure Afghanistan the venue for holding the next that a peaceful transition of power takes place. rounds of intra-Afghan peace talks is the least With the same token, the President- Elect will they can do at the moment. The Afghan make sure to put the US constituency first and negotiating parties, especially the Taliban, then come across other constituencies’ needs need to take the initiative to hold the next and expectations. Within the next few weeks, rounds of peace talks in Afghanistan and start the US foreign policy remains careful towards practicing peaceful coexistence. This is the long-term strategic US interests across the very prerequisite for furfur power-sharing world. Accordingly, some components of the negotiations. US policy toward the Afghan peace process will not change, including: a) The US constituency is weary of the US longest war; it wants troops homes. b) The US leadership continues investing on the rhetoric that is it up

Section 5. Lessons learnt from the Intra-Afghan Negotiations in Doha - 65 Days of IAN

Reaching to a sustainable peace that 1. Slow progress can end four decades’ long war is a rocky road Although adopting the roles of procedure was associated with different risks and a major achievement, negotiations took more opportunities, which requires patience and than two months to reach a conclusion at the sincere negotiations. When the intra-Afghan cost of losing human lives on daily basis negotiations began on 12 September, it was across Afghanistan. The main cause of slow expected that both negotiating teams could progress was maximalist stance of the Taliban easily agree on procedural rules and set the side that brought about controversial agenda for substantial talks such as ending the suggestions. It implies that suggesting violence or reducing it across the country. controversial points from one side of the However, agreement on procedural rules negotiations, for gaining leverage in the talks, lasted more than two months, roughly 65 will lead to stalemate in the process causing days, and eventually both sides compromised delay and frustration. As a result, it will take and soften their positions, adopting the years to reach a peace agreement despite the procedural rules as a key milestone in the urgency of ending the violence across the intra-Afghan negotiations. country. However, compromise in One of the key reasons was negotiations does not necessarily mean maximalist position of the Taliban negotiating ignoring substantial or critical issues. team, who wanted to delegitimize the Afghan Resolving the conflict in the country and Government from the very beginning by finding a middle ground for both sides require stressing on the U.S.-Taliban agreement as sincere and fair discussion on critical issues. the basis for upcoming formal talks. In that 2. Creativity and Flexibility agreement, the Taliban side has agreed to negotiate with “Afghani sides” not explicitly Adopting the rules of procedure was not the government. However, both sides possible without compromise, patience and eventually demonstrated creativity and creativity. Both sides have demonstrated compromise, paving the way for next step in flexibility, creativity and compromise, which the intra-Afghan negotiations. However, what is a promising sign for reaching to a peace lessons we can learn from the first round of agreement. Therefore, the next rounds of negotiations are outlined as below: negotiations can be built upon this lesson and move forward with patience and sincerity.

3. The Need for a Mediator encouragement as well as expressed their concern and outrage against continuing high Negotiations in Doha revealed the necessity level of violence, targeted killing and civilian of selecting a mediator for the next rounds of casualties, on one hand, and calling for negotiations. In the past two months, immediate, permanent and comprehensive representatives of different countries, ceasefire in Afghanistan, on the other. In the particularly Qatari officials and the U.S. meantime, envoys of different countries and especial envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, facilitated international organizations met the and mediated between the negotiating teams. negotiating teams in Doha. Some other Without such mediation, it might have taken international Islamic organizations issued more time to reach an initial agreement. As proclamation, condemning the high level of the negotiations entered into a second phase, violence and calling it illegitimate. These in which negotiators agree on items of the supports and encouragements, on one hand, agenda and begin discussion on critical issues, and denouncing the continuing violence, on mediation between them becomes necessary. the other hand, were strong pressures on Therefore, it is suggested that both negotiating teams to demonstrate flexibility negotiating teams and key stakeholders agree and compromise. Therefore, strengthening on a neutral and credible mediator to facilitate international and regional consensus and the coordination between teams and help involving all key stakeholders are key factors them to move forward, without remaining for success of the peace negotiations in the bogged down on controversial issues. next rounds. 4. International and regional consensus

During the intra-Afghan negotiations, international community and regional countries have shown immense support and

Section 6. Conclusion and Recommendations

The incoming Biden administration Taliban fighters and commanders presents an opportunity and a breathing space into military and civilian life, for the Afghan Government to recalibrate its reintegration of returnees and policies as well as engage in a multilateral displaced peoples, and economic recovery of conflict-affected diplomacy, security and economic policy to communities. mitigate the risks and fill in the gap that the ü The Afghan Government should United States gradual disengagement will include all political elite, parties cause in Afghanistan. and ethnic leaders in the peace Moreover, it is also an opportunity for the process, brining all under an Taliban to further expand and strengthen its overarching umbrella and negotiate with the Taliban from political and diplomatic gains through the position of strength and unity. reducing violence and engaging in a meaningful diplomacy with the new US administration. 2. Recommendations to the Taliban Movement Here are our set of recommendations to all the ü The new incoming Biden parties concerned: administration does not mean the end of the Afghan peace talks. 1. Recommendations to the Afghan Engage with the new US Government administration. It is also a test for

the Taliban diplomacy; whether ü Engage in a meaningful or not they can work with diplomacy with the incoming successive US administrations. Biden administration on the ü The Taliban movement should Afghan peace talks. Ask to agree to a comprehensive rectify some of the shortcomings ceasefire. Not only is this the of the US-Taliban Doha deal. demand of the Afghan people, ü Stay committed and engaged but it also helps create space for with the intra-afghan peace talks successful negotiation and and emphasize on an immediate peacebuilding. It helps build trust and comprehensive ceasefire. and demonstrate the movement’s ü Prepare for the day after peace agreement i.e. reintegration of

determination for bringing peace to Afghanistan. ü International community’s ü The Taliban negotiators should support for the Afghan peace is show compromise and flexibility, crucial. They will have to continue paving the way for smooth their support as well as pressure to progress in the peace establish ceasefire in Afghanistan. negotiations. They can help the Afghan ü The Taliban should distance itself Government and the Taliban to from international terrorist agree on ceasefire and develop a groups, in accordance to their monitoring mechanism. agreement with the U.S. ü They will have to pressure and mediate for preserving the gains 3. Recommendations to the Region and and achievements made in Afghan Neighbors Afghanistan during past two ü Afghanistan’s neighboring decades, particularly preserving countries have stakes in the human rights for all. Afghan peace process. Therefore, ü Provide advice and they will have to encourage recommendations for the negotiating parties, particularly negotiating teams on crafting a the Taliban to agree on a ceasefire political roadmap for the future of across Afghanistan. ü Regional countries will have to Afghanistan in general and an continue their support to the inclusive power-sharing Afghan peace process through arrangement in particular. mediation between negotiating ü Provide advice and help the teams and do not allow the negotiating team in terms of spoilers from their countries technical discussions on derail the peace efforts. transitional justice, investigation ü Neighboring countries should on war crimes, and planning for cooperate with the Afghan reintegration process. Government in the part of return ü International community should of Afghan refugees and their continue their support to the integration in Afghanistan. Afghan Government and the

Afghan security forces. 4. Recommendations to the International Community

ü International community should preparation for the day after a support the Afghan Government political settlement; economic for implementation of the peace development, reintegration and agreement, planning and consolidating the peace process.

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