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PEER REVIEWED / REFEREED RESEARCH JOURNAL A Premier Indo-Centric Foreign Affairs Journal Since 1980 March 2018 Shifting Equations in India’s Neighbourhood

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EDITORIAL Buddhism is India’s bonding with its southern and eastern neighbours, be it Vajrayana or Theravada form. Buddhism has picked up Militancy to keep off onslaughts on it be it in Sri Lanka or Myanmar or Thailand. Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Tibet and much of South Asia and India wishes to stop Chinese from covertly supporting insurgent movements in North East India and the rest of the region. For this to happen, India brings its own BRI in the North East for development of roads, inland waterways and infrastructure development to stop and throw out terrorism. Today India focuses, as never PEER REVIEWED / REFEREED RESEARCH JOURNAL before on the North East as a development corridor, bringing progress to the Volume XXXIX Number 3 March 2018 region for the first time. The Brahmaputra river basin a very fertile basin was ruled by the local Tai ethnic people who constituted the Ahom dynasty ruling the area for 600 years, they even defeated the Mughals under Sharjehan in G . Kishore Babu 1671 in the battle of Saralghat. Culturally much of the Assamese foods are Editor similar to foods in Thailand and Malaysia,and most of South East Asia, with Bamboo stems and sticky rice being central to their cooking. It is in the North Bhabani Dikshit East that saw the first wave of INA who came to liberate India from British Managing Editor colonial rule under Subash Chandra Bose. Their capture and trail of the INA cadres after the end of the second world war led to the Naval mutiny starting Stuti S. Mandala from Bombay that rocked the British empire and made them leave India earlier Associate Editor than they desired as per de classified British Crown documents. For peace in our immediate neighbourhood with China we have two models, WORLD FOCUS takes up every month one one of immediate doables leaving the border dispute to the future generations international issue and gives an analysis of its various and the other of solving the border problems like Modi did with the Indo- aspects by persons well known for their Bangladesh border issue being solved by signing the Indo-Bangladesh border specialisation in the subject. The issues covered are issue in 2015 pending for 70 years, showing political courage. Vajpayee visited topical or near topical, but of an abiding interest. China and Rajiv Gandhi visited China to meet Deng Xiapong, but did not The analysis is simple enough to interest even an accept the sharing and settling model offered earlier by Premier Chou En Lai initiate to world affairs, but without sacrificing depth. and later by Deng Xiapong with modifications on a status quo basis with no The aim is to present an Indocentric view on a loss of face politically to any country on a border that was never demarcated particular issue currently facing the world. by the British before they left India. When Rajiv Gandhi visited to China in Opinions expressed in the articles are personal views 1988 to meet Deng Xiaping both countries decided keeping the permanent of the author and in no way reflect the opinion of border for a later date and looking at the “Doables” like trade for now, as the World Focus. The author is solely responsible for permanent solution was politically difficult, was followed and pushed hard the contents in his/ her article and the World Focus by Manmohan Singh. We have the permanent peace model started by Vajpayee takes no responsibility in this regard. and followed by Modi with political will which has given great results to the The Contents of this magazine cannot be reproduced satisfaction of all for in Bangladesh a problem pending for 70 years. In Pakistan in any form with out prior permission from World Prime Minister Vajpayee dealt with General Musharraf and almost settled the Focus. Any legal issues pertaining to World Focus Indo Pak issue but for sabotage, fear and lack of political will did not let it will be settled in NCT region of Delhi only. happen. Today we make one or two surgical strikes into Pakistan. Pakistan Unsolicited articles will not be returned or makes them by the dozen we are not able to do anything , hundreds of Indians acknowledged. World Focus reserves the right to die. Now Pakistan is seeing all fundings are being stopped to Pakistan from edit articles for brevity and clarity before publication. the US, it also is witnessing how firmly the Modi government has deftly handled the Doklam and Arunachal Pradesh intrusions, and strongly believing Edited, Owned, Published and Printed by G. Kishore Babu from B-49 (Ground Floor), Joshi Colony, I.P. that India will soon start helping the Baluchistan people with their independence Extension, Delhi-110092 at Madhav Press, 4857/24, First Floor, issue from Pakistan. China seeing the duplicity of Pakistan has moved its own Ansari Road, Dariyaganj, New Delhi - 110002 troops into Afghanistan to stop terrorists getting into Xinjiang province. For Total number of Pages 140, including Covers Pakistan terror is a good model of state funding. Now the current Pakistan Copy Right : World Focus Army chief is talking of taking forward the Manmohan model of peace, having being cornered by both America and China and not the permanent problem Our Address: solving formulae which the Modi government has followed with Bangladesh. World Focus With strong political will and pragmatism we urge the Modi government to World Focus Publishing House OPC Pvt. Ltd. take difficult decisions with our Neighbours, like bringing GST, demonetisation B-49, (Ground Floor) Joshi Colony, and now the National Health Protection Scheme the largest in the world I P Extension covering 500 million people for all Indians under the poverty line or near Delhi - 110092, India about it, we all look forward to the government that it will solve both the Tel. : 011-22246905, Mobile No. 8130754555 border issues with China and Pakistan. Email: [email protected] Website: www.worldfocus.in New Delhi G. Kishore Babu March 2018 Editor 3 Shifting Equations in India’s Neighbourhood Contents Developments in the Maldives: Options and implications for India Prof. Anil Kumar Mohapatra...... 5 Is Xi Zinping’s China the Next Super Power? Anil Kamboj, I. G. (Retd)...... 10 India’s Aid Diplomacy towards Afghanistan Post 9/11 Prof. Mohammed Badrul Alam & Dr. Reyaz Ahmad Ganaie...... 17 Modi’s Successful Diplomacy: Neighbourhood First Prof. Satish Kumar & Dr. Raghvendra Pratap...... 23 India’s Policy of Non-Reciprocity in South Asia: Unending Challenges Dr. Arunoday Bajpai...... 29 Rise of Left Alliance in Nepal: India’s Search for Continuity Amidst Change Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta...... 38 India-Myanmar Relations - Journey From ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’: Success or Failure? Dr. Dona Ganguly...... 45 India and its Neighbours: Analysing Conflicting Relations Dr. Rajshekhar...... 50 India’s Neighbourhood Policy towards Bangladesh with special reference to Look East Policy and North East India Dr. Nivedita Giri...... 55 Indo - Maldives Relations and Changing Equations in Indian Ocean Region Dr. Deepak Yadav...... 62 A Path to Peace and Confidence Building in India-Pakistan Relations: Role of Domestic Dynamic after Post 9/11 Incidence Rudra Prasad Sahoo...... 68 India and SAARC: Moving from Regional to Sub-regional Cooperation in South Asia Dr. Bharti Chhibber...... 76 Kashmir - A Centre of India-Pakistan Dispute: Needs Balanced Solution Suchismita Khandei & Dr. Amulya K Tripathy...... 83 Media Discourse on Kashmir: Dissonance in Public Understanding of Indo-Pak Relations Satvik N. and Dr. Madhumati Deshpande...... 92 Shifting Equations in India’s Neighbourhood: An Analysis Dr. Aparna...... 98 Can Modi Craft a New Equation with China? Dr. Pitam Ghosh...... 103 India’s Search for New Regional Equation: SAARC or Alternative? Dr. Prasanta Sahoo...... 110 India-Bhutan Relation: A Pre-eminent Example of Bilateralism Arpon Sarki...... 118 A New Way of Looking Indo-Pak Bilateral Relations through the Lens of Economic Diplomacy Anuradha Oinam...... 126 Future of the Neighborhood amidst the Geopolitical Instability: A View of Indo-Afghan Relations and the Role of China in the Region Deepanshu Kabdola...... 132

4 World Focus March 2018 Developments in the Maldives: Options and Implications for India Prof. Anil Kumar Mohapatra

One of the signs of the South Asian “Spring” – an acclaimed human rights campaigner became its of 2008 eroding into a “Winter” is the recent first democratically elected President. However, as developments in the island nation of the Maldives. a result of a coup-like situation and prolonged protest Nepal’s long struggle to draft an effective Constitution Mr. Nasheed had to resign from his post in February with a stable government since 2008, Pakistan’s 2012. The protest followed President Nasheed’s democratic leadership continuing to speak the decision to sack and arrest a criminal Judge Abdulla language of the military establishment on several acts Mohamed who had ordered the release of a politician of terror, the struggle of the Awami League-led from the opposition party in January 2012. When the Government to fight the challenges emanating from next election took place in November 2013, Mr. the alliance of the radical forces who have threatened Nasheed failed to get majority in the Presidential even to boycott the 2018 polls in Bangladesh, and, runoff. Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom got the the silence and dissent-free democracy in Bhutan etc. majority, thus became the President of the republic. are the other signs. India and Sri Lanka where However, according to some analysts, the 2013 democracy has an uninterrupted existence since the Maldivian Presidential Election was an instance of very days of its inception in these two countries, too manipulation with the support of the judiciary where confront challenges. On the whole, the euphoria over the incumbent President defeated Mr. Nasheed in a the South Asian Spring of 2008 ( Zaki, 2011) wherein deferred runoff. It was also reported that Mr. Nasheed all the South Asian states embraced democracy, is was ahead of his rival when the second round of the gradually becoming dull with these developments. May runoff was cancelled. In the 2014 Parliamentary be in a comparative analysis the South Asian Spring elections Mr. Nasheed’s party i.e. the Maldivian is relatively better in its performance than that of the Democratic Party (MDP) failed to get majority. And, Arabian Spring in 2011, but from an individual country the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) of President point of view the recent developments in the South Yameen got majority. Asian state of Maldives, has been equally worse than that of any state bracketed in the Arab Spring. The From the very day of becoming the President recent turbulence and turmoil in the tiny state of of the Republic of Maldives, Mr. Yameen was very Maldives has thrown a big challenge to the survival assertive and attempted to establish his strong grip of democracy in that state in particular and in South over the power structure. He took all steps to weaken Asia in general along with the security matrix in the and persecute his opponents. The former President Indian Ocean region. Nasheed (who is now in exile in the UK) became his first target. In March 2015, President Nasheed was Before initiating a discussion on the impact convicted under the Anti-Terrorism Act of Maldives and effects of the developments in the island nation and was sentenced to 13 years of imprisonment on democracy and security, a brief overview of the despite the fact that he was cleared of the charges developments in that country would be of necessity for arresting a judge. The act was thus construed as for any reader of the article. politically motivated. In November 2015, he drew international criticism for proclaiming national The Maldives attained its independence in emergency which was withdrawn some days later. 1965. Since 1978 it was under the autocratic At the instance of the reigning President, several of dictatorship of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom for three his political opponents were also being imprisoned. decades. In the year 2008 a multi-party democracy When he found some of his colleagues not keeping was introduced in the country and Mohamed Nasheed good terms with him he also plotted to arrest them.

Developments in the Maldives: Options and Implications for India 5 He stripped of the positions of the legislators who justifying the use of these covert and overt martial defected from his party. As per the version of the means on one ground i.e. to avert the repercussions Unified Maldivian Opposition, since August 2017, the of judicial tyranny. Despite this justification none can Maldives’ Parliament has been under the direct control deny the fact that the state is heading towards a of President Yameen’s troops who continue to occupy “Constitutional Crisis” (The Hindu, 2018) parliament and forcibly evict opposition MPs and thus prevent the legislature to function. Where lies India’s stake: Before coming to the point directly, a background of In the meanwhile, there came the surprise India’s relations with the island nation in the Indian verdict of the five –member bench of the Supreme Ocean warrants a some description. Court in the beginning of February, 2018 wherein the apex Court of the country in an unprecedented The Background judgment directed to set free nine political prisoners Some regard that the name of the country has been including former President Mohamed Nasheed citing derived from a Sanskrit word ‘maladvipa’ meaning the cases against them as politically motivated. In “garland of islands” (Mathew, 2017). The Maldives addition, the Court instructed that the 12 Members of is situated in India’s backyard. From distance point Parliament belonging to PPM be reinstated. The of view India is the nearest neighbour of the Maldives. verdict came as a big shock to the current President It is said that the Minicoy island which forms a part threatening to reduce his PPM to a minority in the of the Indian Union Territory of Lakshadweep national legislature. Being left with no option to (Archipelago) today, was most likely under the remain in power, in response, President Yameen authority of the Maldives royal kingdom until 15th imposed an emergency for 15 days and arrested the Century AD. Therefore, Minicoy inhabitants are the Chief Justice and another senior justice of the only people in India whose mother tongue is the Supreme Court, as well as his own half-brother -the Maldivian language and they share the same writing longest serving President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom system with that of the Maldivians called Taana. (who now heads a faction of the ruling PPM and has the potential to reduce the strength of the ruling party The Maldives is a very close, friendly and to a minority in the 85-member Parliament). The important neighbour of India. Both the countries share security forces have been asked to keep on their toes. ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious and commercial Coming under the threat of police and military action, links from a very long past. When the Maldives the remaining three members of the Supreme Court achieved its independence in 1965, India was almost have reversed their earlier decision to free the nine the first country to accord recognition to it. arrested political prisoners. Afterwards, in the year 1972, India established its diplomatic mission in Male -the capital city of the The way the Yameen’s government is treating republic. Male is the seat of seven diplomatic the judiciary, politicians and some members of the embassies and High Commissioners that include the bureaucracy, reminds the horrible and scary embassy of China established in November 2011. emergency days of 70s’ in India. This is regarded as an instance of how democratic institutions such as India regards it as a valued partner in the Judiciary could be superseded and the rule of law Indian Ocean neighbourhood. For its location and could be undermined. Since the next Presidential proximity it is strategically important for India. India’s election is going to be held later this year i.e. in Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi has September 2018, keeping the prospective opponents acknowledged this by saying, “the security and away from the electoral fray for this and that reason stability of the Maldives are in the interest of India”( is undemocratic. For example, the Jumhooree Party Bhattacherjee, 2016). From the side of the Maldives, leader Grasim Ibrahim who was Yameen’s other it pursues “India First Policy”. India and the Maldives opponent in the 2013 race is also being barred from are members of the SAARC. Both have consistently contesting elections as he is now serving a sentence supported each other have consistently supported each for three years. However, Yameen’s government is other in multilateral fora such as the UN, the Commonwealth, the NAM and the SAARC. 6 World Focus March 2018 India has extended financial and technical support to and sea-level rise. India has shown genuine interest Maldives in establishing important and essential to support the Maldivian efforts to switchover to institutions like the Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital renewable energy and green technology. (IGMH), Faculty of Engineering Technology (FET) and Faculty of Hospitality & Tourism Studies India has been a friend in need for the people (IMFFHTS). India’s prompt response and assistance of the Maldives. Three instances can be cited here. after the tsunami that struck Maldives on December One, the crisis of November 1988 where an attempt 26, 2004 was praiseworthy. India was the first country was made to seize power and to over throw the former to provide relief and aid to Maldives when that president Maumoon Abdul Gayum by a few Tamil disaster created havoc in the island nation. Indian mercenaries along with a group of Maldivians That Coast Guard’s Dornier was the first to land at the coup attempt was foiled after India deployed Ibrahim Nasir Airport with relief and supplies after paratroopers and reclaimed the capital. It is popularly the tsunami of December 26, 2004. The aid included known as Indian Army’s ‘Operation Cactus’. Some a budgetary support aid of Rs.10 crores in 2004-5 19 people, including soldiers and two hostages taken and Rs.100 million in July 2007 in the wake of the by the fleeing mercenaries were killed. India was damages caused by tidal surges in May 2007. given thanks to save the sovereignty and Recently, India has provided US$100 million Stand- independence of the Maldives. Second, in December by Credit facility (SCF) to Maldives, including long- 2014, when the generator of its biggest water term loans and revolving credit for trade. Under new treatment plant did not function due to fire, all on a Line of Credit worth US$40 million offered by the sudden a drinking water crisis occurred in that land. Government of India to Maldives, the Overseas It was reported that close to 150,000 Male residents Infrastructure Alliance (OIA) of India has been given were left without water in their homes. Hence, an a contract to construct 485 housing units in Maldives. urgent request call was made to the U.S., China, India India is also investing a huge amount in the Maldives and Sri Lanka. But India was quick and first to to facilitate capacity building and skill development respond. Accordingly, 1000 Tonnes of Drinking Water among the people of the country. It includes the By Ships And Airplanes were dispatched to the island provision for a large number of scholarships, imparting nation immediately as “water Aid”. Two naval professional and computer skill training. India and warships, the INS Sukanya and the INS Vivek were Maldives signed a trade agreement in 1981, which also been pressed into action to purify water through provides for export of essential commodities at a Reverse Osmosis (RO) systems. Those were also favourable rate. The bilateral trade between the two directed to remain berthed off Male harbour until the has crossed 700 crores in Indian Rupees. Indian desalination treatment plant in Male had been government is also promoting people-to-people repaired. And, third, when the Commonwealth contacts through air connectivity, education linked Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) held an scholarship programmes and cultural exchanges. extraordinary meeting in February 24, 2016 and asked India’s support to conduct polls in free and fair manner Maldives to create an “inclusive” country and a was also incredible. Indians such as workers, doctors, genuine democracy, there was every possibility of engineers etc. claim to be the second largest expecting punitive actions from the CMAG. However, expatriate community in the Maldives with India’s intervention saved the country from that. approximate strength of around 22,000. 30 per cent The Maldives on the other hand, has pledged its of doctors and 25 per cent of teachers in that country support to back India’s claim to become a permanent are from India. member of an expanded UN Security Council.

India and the Maldives too collaborate in India’s Stake and Concerns guarding the sea-lane so that the seaborne trade Even though the current leadership in Maldives through the Indian Ocean could be secure. India too reiterating its ‘India First Policy’ but the tone is has a naval presence in the Maldives. India has been gradually turning to be not-that-sober and it does not equally concerned with regard to the neighbour’s reflect a sense of gratitude. Sometimes it smells like impending difficulties emanating from climate change playing the “China Card”. There are some other

Developments in the Maldives: Options and Implications for India 7 matters of concern for India too. The following after the ouster of Mr Nasheed, the leadership paragraphs shall deal with them. withdrew it and In 2014, when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Maldives President Yameen handed The first gesture of India’s disappointment over it to a Chinese company at a higher rate over the happenings in the archipelago state is that overlooking India’s sentiment. It is pertinent to mention despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s so hyped here that the arbitration tribunal in Singapore has given ‘neighbourhood first’ policy, he has deliberately its decision in favour of the GMR and asked to pay skipped Maldives in his Indian Ocean region tour. back to the company the loss it has incurred in the Suffice it to say that he has visited all the South Asian process. countries except the Maldives since his becoming the head of the government in 2014. The reason behind Given the Maldives geo-strategic location it could be the approach of President Yameen towards China’s growing presence in the Maldives is a serious restoring democracy and China. China and the security concern to India. What concerns India more Maldives have joined hands in warning against any is the possibility of China establishing a naval base in military or other kind of intervention from Indian side its close vicinity. It was reported in August 2017 that citing the developments in the Maldives as ‘internal three Chinese naval vessels docked at Male. matters’. India thus has preferred to maintain silence over the recent developments except expressing its President Yameen has recently restricted the concern that it feels ‘disturbed’. The way China meeting of its officials with foreign diplomats without serves threatening smells hegemonic vis-à-vis India. permission. Accordingly, he has suspended three local The island nation’s closeness with China and its pro- councillors for allegedly meeting with the Indian China tilt has disheartened India. China’s influence ambassador. It was an action deliberately done as all and interest in the small nation can be understood of them belong to opposition parties. The incident too from many of the activities. It has been reported that has caused irritation to India. China is going to establish a military base in one of the islands leased to it by the Maldives. The liberalised India is equally concerned over the leasing scheme brought in by the Yameen radicalization of the youth in the Maldives. It has a Government serves China’s interest at its best. China deeper security implication for India. Last two has been pouring money to assist some infrastructure decades have witnessed the increasing number of and developmental projects in the small country. There Maldivian youths joining terrorist groups like the have been huge Chinese investments in promoting its Islamic State (IS) and Pakistan-based madrassas and tourist sector. President Yameen has backed China’s jihadist groups. It has been reported that approximately Belt and Road initiative thus it has become a part of 200 Maldivian nationals have been fighting along with China’s Silk Road Project. In December 2017 , the the IS. The reasons may be Political instability and Maldives became the second country in South Asia socio-economic uncertainty but the rising Islamic to have concluded a Free Trade Agreement with radicalization in that country has heightened Indian China, the first one being Pakistan. A bridge concern. To add salt to injury, President Yameen’s connecting the airport and the capital city has been government is about to sell or lease an atoll called constructed with the help of China and it is named as Faafu — one of the 26 atolls — to Saudi Arabia. It ‘ Bridge of Friendship’. Chinese tourists to the island would establish Madrasas and thus aggravate nation have outnumbered others. That has earned Wahabism in the country. The Maldives is also appreciation from the government of Maldives as the promoting the students to undertake studies in Saudi nation’s economy is heavily dependent on tourism Arabia and Pakistan. They use to come back with sector. The GMR contract withdrawal issue is radical ideas. India fears the exfiltration of members another such incidence where the Maldivian of Indian terror groups like the Students Islamic government earlier (in 2010 when Mr. Nasheed was Movement of India (SIMI) and the Indian Mujahideen the President) gave the project of upgrading the (IM) to the Maldives after their crackdown in India. Ibrahim Nasir International Airport to an India India is thus apprehensive of the growing radical multinational company called GMR and later in 2012

8 World Focus March 2018 elements in the neighbourhood which may be used India has to remain as a solace to these elements. against India. India’s silence over the developments in the Maldives should be constructive, rational, pragmatic and of The Way Out optimism. It is true that India is watching the unfolding crisis in the Maldives with concern. However, it has to react Notes and References with caution. It has to exercise restraint. Jaiswal Bhattacherjee, Kallol. 2016. Maldives’ security, (2018) has rightly suggested India to resort to subtle stability in India’s interest: Modi. The Hindu. 11 April. diplomacy to ease the tension in the island nation. Jaiswal, Pramod. 2018. Islands of controversy and India is not alone here who is disturbed over the political turmoil. Weekend Express. 9 February, p.8. happenings in the Maldives. The EU, US, UN and Mathew, Mammen et al (eds.). 2017. Maldives. UK are equally concerned over the issue. India must Manorama Yearbook 2017, p.374. lend support to the democratic elements in the The Hindu. 2018. Crisis in Male. The Hindu. 5 country. Only democracy can bring stability to the nation which would in turn serve India’s interest. It is February, p.8. hoped that the Chinese naval base may never happen Zaki, Ibrahim Hussain. 2011. South Asia in 2020: A under international pressure as India is backed by Maldives perspective, in Pattanaik, Smruti S (ed) “ the US, Japan and other established democracies in South Asia Envisioning a regional future”. New Delhi: the world. India should keep the democratic elements Pentagon Security International,Pp.169-173. The engaged in this regard. As a first step, India could Maldivian writer describes the flourishing of offer the Maldives its good offices, perhaps to act as democracy in South Asia in the following words: “ a facilitator to arrange a dialogue between the The winds of democracy have been sweeping across Maldivian government and the opposition. China has the South Asian region in recent years, with a vigour also stated to work with India in this regard and India and vitality that bodes well for the future of our region. should capitalize on that. Security of India in South Today, we can proudly claim that all member states Asia depends more on the survival of democracy in of SAARC are truly represented by governments that the region. India should think of measures to facilitate have assumed office through free and fair multi-party democratic promotion in its vicinity. Consciousness and people’s minds are changing and this dictatorship elections. Human rights protection, accountability and and radicalism will never be durable. Hardnosed transparency in governance are no longer mere realism is not the answer to the problems in South concepts of political parlance; these are today Asia; neo-liberalism and idealism has a greater role enshrined in our constitutions. Dictators and to play here. India must not forget that the same demagogues have been replaced by popularly elected Maldivians dislodged the three-decades-long leaders, representative of and responsive to the will autocratic regime of Gayoom in 2008 and despite the of their people.” current setback, democracy will triumph again. And,

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Developments in the Maldives: Options and Implications for India 9 Is Xi Zinping’s China the Next Super Power ? Anil Kamboj, I. G. (Retd)

Among all world leaders at present it seems $436 million from cash-strapped Greece last year, will that that Donald Trump President United States and serve as the BRI’s “dragon head” in Europe. As per Xi Zinping President of China are the most talked Brahma Chellaney, China seeks to kill two birds with about and could be proving to be the most powerful. one stone. First, it wants to address overcapacity at Both US and China are economically strongest home by boosting exports. And, second, it hopes to countries and that makes the leaders strong. Xi Zinping advance its strategic interests, including expanding policies are long term and initially looks attractive and its diplomatic influence, securing natural resources, beneficiary for both the countries that is with whom promoting the international use of its currency, and it is negotiating, but later it is only China. President gaining a relative advantage over other powers. China Donald Trump’s policies are only ‘for Americans’ is now establishing its own Hong Kong-style neo- based. colonial arrangements starting with Hambantota. Apparently, Xi’s promise of the “great rejuvenation Unlike International Monetary Fund and of the Chinese nation” is inextricable from the erosion World Bank lending, Chinese loans are collateralized of smaller states’ sovereignty. Actually, China chooses by strategically important natural assets with high its projects according to their long-term strategic long-term value (even if they lack short-term value, they may yield short-term returns that are commercial viability). Hambantota, for example, insufficient for countries to repay their debts. This straddles Indian Ocean trade routes linking Europe, gives Xi Zinping an extra leverage to force borrowers Africa and the Middle East to Asia. In exchange for to swap debt for equity, thereby expanding China’s financing and building the infrastructure that poorer global dominance. countries need, China demands favourable access to their natural assets, from mineral resources to ports. In 2015, a Chinese firm took out a 99-year Sri Lanka, unable to pay the onerous debt to China it lease on Australia’s deep-water port of Darwin— has accumulated, formally handed over its home to more than 1,000 US Marines—for $388 strategically located Hambantota port to the Asian million. Similarly, trapped in a debt crisis, Djibouti had giant. It was a major acquisition for China’s Belt and no choice but to lease land to China for $20 million Road Initiative (BRI)—which President Xi Jinping per year. China has also used its leverage over calls the “project of the century”— and proof of just Turkmenistan to secure natural gas by pipeline largely how effective China’s debt-trap diplomacy can be. on Chinese terms. Likewise, several other countries, As Sri Lanka’s experience starkly illustrates, Chinese from Argentina to Namibia to Laos, have been financing can shackle its “partner” countries. Rather ensnared in a Chinese debt trap, forcing them to than offering grants or concessionary loans, China confront agonizing choices to stave off default. provides huge project-related loans at market-based Kenya’s crushing debt to China now threatens to turn rates, without transparency, much less environmental- its busy port of Mombasa—the gateway to East or social-impact assessments. As US secretary of Africa— into another Hambantota. States caught in state Rex Tillerson put it recently, with the BRI, China debt bondage to China risk losing both their most is aiming to define “its own rules and norms”. valuable natural assets and their very sovereignty. A deep-rooted strategy that Xi Zinping is playing is very To strengthen its position, China has dangerous, like serpent slowly curling around its encouraged its companies to bid for outright purchase helpless prey. of strategic ports, where possible. The Mediterranean port of Piraeus, which a Chinese firm acquired for

10 World Focus March 2018 Leaders of smaller, poorer countries are It is not, in any case, a replacement for the citizens much more vulnerable to the ambitions of a country of the host countries realizing that Chinese money with deep pockets like China. After being thrown out unaccompanied by domestic institutional reforms and of power, leaders in many countries have been local capacity development cannot make them rich. investigated for accepting bribes from Chinese Conversely, it can exacerbate local political economy companies. In Nigeria, just three days before exiting problems by encouraging venality and corruption. office, former president Goodluck Jonathan approved China’s support is not even in the form of aid, but an out-of-court settlement—now being probed by US through more distortionary high-interest loans. Often, agencies—between Addax Petroleum (owned by the labour and the input materials in these projects Chinese oil giant Sinopec) and the Nigerian National are also sourced from China. Moreover, the investment Petroleum Corp., saving the former millions of dollars. flow is dictated by political rather than market choices. In 2012, the husband of former Philippine president The result is a host country saddled with white Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was arrested on charges elephants not generating enough capital to pay back of accepting bribes to push a deal between the the loans. Sri Lanka has already seen these fears Philippine government and the Chinese telecom come true. company ZTE. Mohammad Nasheed, the leader-in- exile of Maldivian opposition, has accused President One of the surest signs of the emergence of Abdulla Yameen of corruption in leasing out islands a global superpower is its ability and willingness to to foreign countries. India, too, was concerned about intervene in other states’ domestic politics. This is the Yameen government leasing out the Feydhoo exactly the policy of President Xi Zinping. It is China Finolhu island to a Chinese company at a throwaway that seems to have stolen the idea from US and price without competitive bidding. Known for his Russian in this regard. In fact, 2017 will mark the proximity to China, Yameen again surprised New year when China’s manipulation of domestic politics Delhi in November last year by passing a free trade in other states came out of the closet. On the one agreement with China through the Maldivian hand, its role in the removal of Robert Mugabe in parliament in an emergency session called at short Zimbabwe underscored Beijing’s growing clout in far- notice with most of the opposition members flung regions of the world. China was aware of the unavailable to attend. In the same manner the former Zimbabwean army’s plans to oust Mugabe, as president of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has been General Constantino Chiwenga, head of Zimbabwe’s accused of accepting bribes from China Harbour defence forces, had visited Beijing just days before Engineering Company, a subsidiary of state-owned the army moved against Mugabe. At the other end of China Communications Construction Company. the spectrum, the Australian debate on China’s Rajapaksa’s tenure saw several high-profile Chinese growing role in domestic matters threw down the investments in Sri Lanka. Many of those, including gauntlet to Beijing. Australian Prime Minister Malcolm an airport and a seaport in Hambantota—the home Turnbull has taken the lead in this regard, pointedly base of Rajapaksa—had initially been to be attacking the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for commercial non-starters. Can this be China bribing covertly interfering “with our media, our universities its way to superpower status? and even the decisions of elected representatives right here in this building (parliament)”. As China pushes its ambitious trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative, such sweetheart deals can More than one year into Donald Trump’s be expected in greater numbers. India’s smaller presidency, the President is portrayed as a selfish neighbours are especially vulnerable, but New Delhi toddler-emperor seen by his own staff as unfit for can do little as it cannot match Beijing’s largesse. office. He is seen as trying to rule America as if he is India can indeed partner with other countries like running his own business empire. But still it is too Japan and the US to take up infrastructure projects early to judge him. At present, the American economy in these countries. But even so, it is difficult to match is in fine fettle, growing by an annualised 3.2% in the Chinese state-controlled firms with excess capacity third quarter. Blue-collar wage growth is outstripping and a bounty of cash to throw at projects and leaders. the rest of the economy. Many manufacturing

Is Xi Zinping’s China the Next Super Power ? 11 workers, have been hollowed out as the jobs have being damaged by his presidency. There is a talk been shipped overseas to Asia and South America. around the corner, of his early removal from office Some of the jobs have also been lost to automation. being unfit for which he was elected. The Mueller Though it may be beneficial for United States, but, probe into his campaign’s dealings with Russia should President Trump thinks opposite. Since Barack run its course. Only then can America hope to gauge Obama left, unemployment has continued to fall and whether his conduct meets the test for impeachment. the stock market to climb. Mr Trump is lucky—the Ousting Mr Trump via the 25th Amendment, as some world economy is enjoying its strongest synchronised favour, would be even harder. upswing since 2010. But he has made his luck by convincing corporate America that he is on its side. Trump’s opposition to globalisation, of course, President Trump has not carried out his worst threats. remains stark. He is still to appoint his emissaries to As a candidate he spoke about slapping 45% tariffs the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Opposed to on all Chinese goods and rewriting or ditching the multilateralism in trade, he also wants American North American Free-Trade Agreement with Canada corporations to invest less abroad. But globalisation’s and Mexico. May be that there may soon be trouble retreat is not confined to the US alone. Germany, on both those fronts, but hopefully not on that original Britain, France and Italy are the four biggest European scale. He also branded NATO as obsolete and economies. Via Brexit, Britain has already given in proposed the mass deportation of 11m illegal to an inward-looking pullback; right wing populist immigrants. So far, however, the Western alliance political forces are showing signs of revival in Italy; holds and the level of deportations in the 12 months the nativist party led by Marine Le Pen finished to September 2017 was not strikingly different from second in France; and now, a right-wing populist party earlier years. has emerged from nowhere in Germany to become the third largest party in parliament, causing a As per Article, “American Politics One Year substantial erosion of popular support for the centre Old” in The Economist, Mr Trump’s legislative right and centre left, and making it hard for a accomplishments have been modest, and mixed. A government to emerge. Under Merkel, Germany was tax reform that cut rates and simplified some of the unambiguously committed to the European project rules was also regressive and unfunded. His proposed and, by extension, to a less nationalistic, more pro- withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and global stance. We don’t know how the political crisis the fledgling Trans-Pacific Partnership was not only will be resolved in Germany, and whether the foolish but also at an unknown cost to the environment resolution will be stable. and human health. His opportunism and lack of principle, rather unwanted, may yet mean that he is It is natural to ask: Where is globalisation, more open to deals. As per the article, he combined a the ruling economic orthodoxy of the last four decades, harsh plan to deport Salvadoreans who have headed? In its purest economic form, globalisation temporary rights to live and work in America with represents free movement of capital, goods and labour the suggestion of a broad reform to immigration. The across national boundaries. The reality, of course, American bureaucracy is so understaffed that it is departed from this ideal type. Compared to capital relying on industry hacks to draft policy. They have and goods, labour was always allowed lower freedom shaped deregulation and written clauses into the tax to move. Moreover, since different countries opted bill that pass costs from shareholders to society. for varying degrees of integration with the global Because Senate Republicans confirmed so few judges economy, even the movement of capital and goods, in Mr Obama’s last two years, Mr Trump is moving while less constrained than before, was not entirely the judiciary dramatically to the right. Getting so much free. India and China globalised incrementally, power, is really pulling President away from the Argentina with a big bang in the mid-1990s. ordinary people and there is a big disconnect. It seems Eventually, the actually existing globalisation came to from the actions and decisions taken by him. Mr mean two things: One, greater economic freedom Trump is a deeply flawed man without the judgment beyond national borders than perhaps ever before; or temperament to lead a great country. America is and two, within that larger trend, freer movement of

12 World Focus March 2018 capital and goods than of labour. At present we are because of an increase in the price of South American watching Globalisation 2 over the last four decades. oil, minerals and other commodities. China is the largest trading partner of Chile, Peru, and of Brazil. India and China were among the worst Now they are centred on Brazil and Argentina, and sufferers during the first globalisation. But they have are in more sectors. The biggest changes are in been two of the biggest beneficiaries of the second Chinese investment and lending. Until recently, these globalisation. In 1980, China and India were not even focused on oil, mining and Venezuela. Chinese among the 45 largest economies of the world. In 2016, companies have invested at least $21bn on Brazilian at $11.2 trillion, China’s GDP was second only to the deals last year. China is financing a motorway to US ($18.6 trillion) and at $2.3 trillion, India’s GDP Buenaventura, a port on Colombia’s Pacific coast, was the seventh largest in the world, ahead of Italy and upgrading a railway to Argentina’s north-west. ($1.9 trillion) and Canada ($1.5 trillion), and only According to Margaret Myers of the Inter-American slightly behind Britain ($2.6 trillion) and France ($2.5 Dialogue, a think-tank in Washington, Chinese loans trillion), though its per capita income continues to be to Latin America totalled $9bn last year. a fraction of all four. As per Oliver Stuenkel , who teaches China and India have not objected to international relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas, Globalisation 2; the West has. Further, it is not from Latin America’s viewpoint, the relationship is economic arguments against globalisation that have “really about the money”, That is especially so in forced the retreat. It is the new political forces that Brazil, which is recovering from a deep recession. A have done so. If market-based economics mastered few Latin Americans worry that Chinese imports are politics for the last four decades, politics is now deindustrialising the region and fear economic displaying its mastery over economic policy, though dependence. But there is little thinking about the in a manner disconcerting to most liberals. geopolitical implications of the relationship. Panama is the only country in the region to have signed a belt- While Donald Trump was in Davos during and-road agreement. January trying to persuade the global plutocracy that “America First” does not mean “America alone”, China’s interest in Latin America is not China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, was promoting matched by other big powers. The Trump globalisation, free trade and co-operation in Latin administration has no clear strategy, although Rex America. For his hosts, the contrast was striking. Mr Tillerson, the Secretary of State, was planning to visit Trump has insulted Mexico, El Salvador and Haiti, five countries in the region starting during February discourages investment in the United States’ southern this year. The European Union (EU) remains the neighbour, and talks trade protectionism. China, in largest single source of foreign investment. the region the soothing words of Mr Wang, offers Latin America is entering into a political entanglement with an a “strategy of mutual benefit and shared gain. external power that has no interest in democracy. In Contrary to some reports, China did not formally invite a few years, if China has a military confrontation in Latin America to join the Belt and Road Initiative the South China Sea, for example, some Latin that is the cornerstone of President Xi Jinping’s American countries might feel obliged to back their foreign policy and features big investments in new patron. As per Stuenkel, China’s influence is infrastructure in Eurasia and Africa. But said that growing by the day.” Latin America should be wary Latin America would be extension to it. China is of the conditions that may come with China’s offer already investing in infrastructure in Latin America. of “shared gain.

Total annual trade between China and Latin Meanwhile, in the other part of the world, America shot up from almost nothing to more than China in January pledged to continue playing a $200bn by 2014. Latin America’s exports to China constructive role in maintaining and implementing increased by around 30% last year, according to the the Iran nuclear deal, after U.S. President Donald Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), mainly Trump set an ultimatum to fix “disastrous flaws” in a

Is Xi Zinping’s China the Next Super Power ? 13 deal. Continuing to implement the nuclear deal was due to disputes about costs or complaints host the responsibility of all parties concerned and the countries get too little out of projects built by Chinese common wish of the international community. As per companies and financed by loans from Beijing that Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, the deal would help must be repaid. China is so much determined to start uphold the international non-proliferation regime, these projects that at any cost it wants these projects maintain regional peace and stability and solve “other to get through. In some areas, Beijing is suffering a hot issues” around the world. On 12th January 2018 political backlash due to fears of domination by Asia’s President Trump agreed to waive sanctions against biggest economy. Iran that were lifted as part of the international deal but said it would be the last time unless conditions “Belt and Road,” announced by Xi in 2013, were met to fix what he called “significant flaws” in is a loosely defined umbrella for Chinese-built or - the deal. His ultimatum puts pressure on Europeans - financed projects across 65 countries from the South key backers and parties to the 2015 international Pacific through Asia to Africa and Europe. Other agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program - to satisfy governments welcomed the initiative in a region the Trump, who wants the pact strengthened with a Asian Development Bank says needs more than $26 separate agreement within 120 days. trillion of infrastructure investment by 2030 to keep economies growing. Nations including Japan have As mentioned by some analysts, US given or lent billions of dollars for development, but President Donald Trump’s notoriously threatening China’s venture is bigger and the only source of money rhetoric towards nuclear-armed North Korea — for many projects. Governments from Washington to which has drawn comparisons with Richard Nixon’s Moscow to New Delhi are uneasy Beijing is trying to “madman theory” of diplomacy — may deserve some use its “Belt and Road” to develop a China-centered credit for bringing Pyongyang to talks. After months political structure that will erode their influence. The of confrontation, during which Pyongyang carried out US and Japanese governments express interest in multiple missile tests and by far its biggest nuclear building contracts or other potential opportunities. But detonation to date. The two Koreas held their first they also are trying to develop alternative initiatives. official dialogue in more than two years this week, The stumbles for one of the world’s most ambitious agreeing the North would send its athletes to next infrastructure ventures could help temper concerns month’s Winter Olympics in the South and paving the Beijing will increase its strategic influence. way for further discussions. China and Pakistan governments are Since Kim inherited power in 2011, North developing facilities with a total cost of $60 billion Korea has made rapid progress towards its goal of including power plants and railways to link China’s developing a missile that can deliver an atomic far west with the Chinese-built port of Gwadar on warhead to the United States, which significantly the Indian Ocean. strengthens its negotiating position. But some analysts now say that despite the hermit state’s achievements India has been a close partner of the Middle and the defiance of its propaganda, Trump’s chest- East; but with growing Chinese power in the Gulf, thumping provoked real fears within the North’s elites, India requires to take a more proactive stand. For pushing them to seek ways to dial down tension. one, Chinese interests might only be business at Trump administration officials have repeatedly said present; but this could change and, in the long run, that military action is an option on the table. China accumulating soft power in the Gulf could Washington has held several joint exercises with allies diminish India’s position. The “new normal” state of South Korea and Japan this year, and deployed three affairs between the US and China suggests a struggle aircraft carriers to the area at the same time. between a global power and a rising power, and the dissatisfied power would try (has been trying) to From Pakistan to Tanzania to Hungary, change the rules of the international order to a projects under President Xi Jinping’s signature ”Belt preferred end. In another case of leveraging economic and Road Initiative” are being renegotiated or delayed interdependence in a conflict situation, China might

14 World Focus March 2018 use such a power to control energy transfer to India, the US advances with India over the last two decades. hampering its growth and capability. However, for If President George W. Bush affirmed that now, China sits in a favourable position in the Middle Washington will support India’s rise, Trump is East, and India needs to catch up. As per IDSA a welcoming India’s “emergence as a leading global ‘Think Tank’, an accurate estimate of Chinese power”. If Presidents George W. Bush and Barack ‘power’ in the Middle East can only be asserted after Obama stopped seeing India through the constricting a successful implementation and functioning of the prism of South Asia, Trump is betting on a larger role OBOR vision. Moreover, the region is under stress for Delhi in stabilising the Indo-Pacific. Although the over the US withdrawal. Though China oscillates term Indo-Pacific was first used by Hillary Clinton, it between non-intervention and the protection of self- was Trump who articulated the idea at the highest interest, it categorically denies any interest in tackling level during his visit to Asia last month. The change conflict and regional issues as a main participant, and in the American thinking is now reinforced by the prefers to stay an invisible mitigatory. first ever use of the term “Indo-Pacific” in the NSS documents that the US Congress demands from all The US National Security Strategy (NSS) administrations. Within the Subcontinent, Trump, like says, “China and Russia challenge American power, his predecessors, acknowledges profound concerns influence, and interests, attempting to erode American about Pakistan’s support for international terrorism. security and prosperity”. The previous administrations Unlike Bush and Obama, Trump has promised to assumed that China and Russia can be integrated confront Rawalpindi on the issue. into the global order led by the United States. In the new “competitive world,” the NSS argues, “this As per C Raja Mohan in his article “How premise turned out to be false”. As per C Raja Mohan India can negotiate Trump’s world”, Trump’s critique in his article “How India can negotiate Trump’s of China’s policies goes beyond what we have seen world”, mentions that there is no doubt that the tough from any of the administrations since the normalisation rhetoric on China comes after a year in which Trump of relations between Washington and Delhi in the sought quite hard to to secure some kind of a deal 1970s. Washington now identifies China as a major with the Chinese leadership on economic and political challenge to America’s economic prosperity and issues. The strategy document is strongly critical of political primacy. Russia but Trump took a different tack in his speech, where he pointed to cooperation with the Russian Yet, the Administration’s ability to act President Vladimir Putin. Underlying these apparent decisively against China, we must not forget, will be contradictions is the new dynamism in great power constrained by the profound economic relations. Trump is affirming that Washington will not interdependence and the need for Beijing’s sit idly as other powers undermine America’s position. cooperation in addressing a large number of issues. He wants to defend American primacy by rebuilding its military power, insisting on greater reciprocity in On its part, Delhi should focus on the sources its alliances, reducing the constraints on economic of internal change in America that are compelling growth imposed by domestic and international Washington to recalibrate its external relations. regulations, and demanding fair trade rather than free Aligning India’s economic strategy with the changes trade. America, Trump insists, will no longer be unfolding in Trump’s America is the key to an enduring deluded by the ideology of globalism, multilateralism, and productive bilateral partnership. Central to that but will operate on the basis of “principled realism”. approach is the revitalisation of India’s high- technology partnership with America. Most likely Effect of Trump’s Policy on India America is not going to close its borders to Indian The US National Security Strategy (NSS) issued this technical talent. week in Washington confirms the slow but steady convergence of American interests with those of India Conclusion in the Subcontinent and more broadly the Indo-Pacific. How companies and businesses would respond, will The Trump administration is determined to build on shape all their futures. In the US, for example, there

Is Xi Zinping’s China the Next Super Power ? 15 is a temptation to capitalize on the Trump Meanwhile, autocratic regimes have been on administration’s deregulation drive in areas including the rise, from Turkey, once the Muslim world’s beacon oil drilling, consumer protection, immigration, trade of democracy, to Poland, once Europe’s post- policy, and environmental safeguards. But what may communist darling. Chinese President Xi Jinping has be seem like a boon for business in the short term established himself as the most powerful leader since may do irreparable long-term damage, with Mao Zedong, cracking down on any semblance of implications for every sector, every investor, and dissent. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has every consumer. It isn’t only US politics that has his fingers in a growing number of geopolitical pies— become inescapable. The Brexit vote in June 2016 including, mounting evidence suggests, the US. It is has thrown the UK and the European Union into a the US that is creating a vacuum and China is wasting tailspin, forcing businesses to guess what will come no time in filling it up. How the future geopolitics next—and, in many cases, spurring them to shift their shape, time would only tell. operations to other countries. .

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16 World Focus March 2018 India’s Aid Diplomacy towards Afghanistan Post 9/11 Dr. Mohammed Badrul Alam & Dr. Reyaz Ahmad Ganaie

Introduction: of a more audacious Taliban campaign following the Afghanistan has continued to be under the radar of complete withdrawal of foreign combat mission is international community ever since the fateful what can push Afghanistan into a dangerous spiral September 11, 2001, attacks on World Trade Centre which could potentially reverse the gains made in the and the Pentagon. Following the attacks, the United last sixteen years. Therefore, what is needed to States intervened in Afghanistan with the aim of prevent such a nightmarish situation from transpiring defeating the al-Qaeda network and decimating the is continued international financial aid and oversight, Taliban regime which had been providing shelter to and harmonization of interests of Afghanistan’s the Bin Laden-led outfit. It has been more than regional neighbours. Sixteen years since the US-led military coalition landed in Afghanistan but the stated objectives of the At present, the key challenges confronted by military intervention have not been accomplished till the Kabul government include sustaining the Afghan date. While the United States can claim success in National Army as a viable institution and enhancing having dismantled the al-Qaeda network in and its counterinsurgency capabilities; consolidation of around Afghanistan, the Taliban insurgency, however, nascent democratic processes throughout the country; is on an ever increasing note. The widespread and most importantly, negating the Taliban influence. presence of Taliban and its affiliated outfits has made Meeting these challenges in a time-bound manner can it difficult for the civilian government to exercise its prevent Afghanistan from plunging into yet another writ throughout the country. As a result, what has episode of violent conflict. India, in the capacity of a happened in Afghanistan is that the democratic large aid donor and a potent regional ally, has apparatus seems to have lost the sway and that the contributed considerably in order to meet these resultant vacuum is essentially being capitalized by challenges. However, such broad based engagement the Taliban. Therefore, maintenance of peace and is not driven entirely by humanitarian concerns or a stability in the current security scenario appears to sense of altruism per se, but the geo-strategic location be an uphill task for Afghanistan which cannot be of Afghanistan embodies a number of strategic realized without the active support from the larger interests for India. In order to fully understand the international community in general and Afghanistan’s dynamics of India’s assistance-driven policy towards neighbours in particular. However, given the fluidity Afghanistan in the post 9/11 period, it becomes of the prevailing situation in Afghanistan, its regional imperative to have a look at the historical context in neighbours, instead of espousing definitive and which the two countries found it mutually beneficial decisive policies, rather appear to have adopted a to cultivate a cordial relationship. wait-and-watch strategy vis-à-vis Afghanistan. Even though there is little disagreement over the compound The Genesis of India’s Assistance-Driven Policy and multifaceted challenges that Afghanistan is bound towards Afghanistan: to face in the years to come, there is also a clear India and Afghanistan have remained interacting with consensus among the international stakeholders and each other through the means of trade and commerce regional powers that Afghanistan holds a key and also through their many shared cultural values geostrategic location that can be instrumental not only and commonalities. India and Afghanistan signed a in promoting peace and security in the region but can Friendship treaty way back in 1950. Signed between also play a key role in opening up the possibility for Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and the Afghan enhanced trade and energy cooperation among the Ambassador Najibullah Khan in New Delhi on states in South Asia and beyond. Nonetheless, the January 4, 1950, the treaty envisaged a commitment worsening security scenario and the apprehensions for everlasting peace and friendship ‘with a view to India’s Aid Diplomacy towards Afghanistan Post 9/11 17 the common benefit of their people and the of Taliban in 1996, however, resulted in complete development of their respective countries.’1 The rupture in Indo-Afghan relations as Taliban shared treaty laid the foundation for the development of a close liaison with Pakistan’s military and Intelligence close bilateral relationship for the decades to come. establishment. What left India worse off in the coming India, therefore, enjoyed excellent diplomatic ties with years was India’s decision to enter into a working all Afghan governments, starting from King Zahir relationship with the Northern Alliance which stood Shah’s tenure to the successive regimes including opposite to the Taliban. India established links with those that were hoisted on the country following the the anti-Pashtun Northern Alliance so as to negate Soviet invasion in December 1979. The moment the possibility of Afghanistan falling under the Pakistan came into being, New Delhi-Kabul relations command of Taliban forces who were acting at the gained impetus because both the countries shared behest of Pakistan’s security establishment. territorial disputes with Islamabad. Furthermore, Kabul’s opposition to Pakistan’s stand on the Kashmir Following the ouster of Taliban in late 2001 dispute laid a strong foundation for India-Afghanistan by the U.S.-led coalition in response to the 9/11 relations. India continued to assist Afghanistan even Attacks, India was swift in renewing its diplomatic during the tumultuous decade of anti-Soviet war. India ties with Afghanistan. Immediately after Karzai took maintained its influence in Afghanistan through over the reins of Afghanistan, India’s Minister for investments in developmental activities including External Affairs, Jaswant Singh, flew to Kabul to irrigation, agriculture and hydro-electric projects. participate in Interim Government’s inauguration and Nonetheless, the decade of Soviet intervention to re-open the Indian embassy, which closed on the witnessed India’s Afghan policy oscillating between eve of the Taliban’s seizure of Kabul in 1996.4 Since the avowed principle of Non-Alignment on the one then, India’s relations with Afghanistan have improved hand and the zeal to gain geopolitical leverage on the considerably for a number of factors facilitated the other. Initially, India opposed the Soviet intervention renewal of diplomatic ties. First, India kept its post- in Afghanistan and called for the withdrawal of the 9/11 Afghan policy completely in sync with the Soviet troops from Afghanistan. However, realising principles mandated under the Bonn Agreement of that the withdrawal of Soviets would serve Pakistan’s 2001. Second, unlike Pakistan, Indo-Afghan relations interests by virtue of the ascendance of Pakistan- are not hampered by the existence of a contiguous backed Mujahideen factions in Afghanistan, India and contested border. Third, India was able to garner chose to abstain on key U.N. resolutions calling for official support from the Kabul government because the complete Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. many members of the Northern Alliance, which India India chose to turn a blind eye towards Soviet supported during the mid-1990s, became members occupation of Afghanistan because it feared a of the Interim Government or held influential provincial Mujahedeen victory in Afghanistan would become posts.5 the basis for Pakistan to gain greater geopolitical leverage in the region.2 Furthermore, the scale of Avoiding any sort of military engagement, military assistance Pakistan received from the United India adopted the ‘Soft Power Approach’ towards States and the latter’s policy of turning a blind eye Afghanistan, sticking to civilian issues rather than towards Islamabad’s covert nuclear weapons military matters. With the inception of the Interim program shaped India’s Afghan policy during that Government led by Hamid Karzai, Prime Minister decade. India’s main concern was the revitalization A.B. Vajpayee immediately announced a U.S. $100 of Washington’s security links with Pakistan, which million in reconstruction aid to Afghanistan. Since India contended could alter the natural balance of 2001, India has already pledged more than $2 billion power in the region in favour of Pakistan. India was on various projects, emerging as the fifth largest the only country outside of the Warsaw Pact bloc bilateral donor to Afghanistan. India’s assistance has that maintained cordial ties with the Soviet-backed largely been directed towards education, health and regimes in Afghanistan.3 Geopolitical realities rather infrastructure related activities. The civilian-centric than the grandiose rhetoric of Non-Alignment guided policy helped in laying a strong foundation for fostering India’s Afghan policy during this epoch. The advent mutual trust. A look at recent public opinion polls in

18 World Focus March 2018 Afghanistan illustrates the positive sentiment that (first led by Karzai and then by Ashraf Ghani) has Afghans hold for India and its people. Among local time and again reiterated admiration for India’s policies Afghans, India’s assistance and investment in in Afghanistan. Since 2001, several high level official establishing basic facilities like schools, hospitals and visits from both countries have strengthened the case transportation has earned it a place of pride, and is for closer and enhanced cooperation between the two therefore seen positively throughout Afghanistan. countries. For instance, India and Afghanistan signed Specifically, India has till now successfully constructed a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) in 2003, aimed the 218-Km long highway linking the town of Zaranj at removing all obstacles in the way of increasing near the Iranian border to Delaram in the northeast mutual trade and commerce. This agreement made Afghanistan despite periodic attacks on Border Roads India one of the major trading partners of Afghanistan Organisation (BRO) personnel. India has also played and its fifth largest source of imports. Similarly, in a significant and commendable role in constructing 2005 when Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh roads which have improved Afghanistan’s met Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Kabul they connectivity with strategic ports thereby reducing agreed on expanding bilateral cooperation to wide Kabul’s dependence on Pakistan.6 India has so far ranging areas including development, defence, been able to increase Afghanistan’s connectivity with education, energy, trade, combating terrorism and the Iranian port of Chabahar which has led to an working towards greater economic and cultural indirect decline in Afghanistan’s dependence on integration of South Asia. Prime Minister Manmohan Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi.7 India’s Singh’s perfectly timed visit, just three weeks before efforts at developing the Chabahar Port in Iran is the September 2005 parliamentary elections in also based on the fact that it provides India with the Afghanistan, pointed towards India’s desire for a most viable option of gaining access to Afghanistan tangible and a long-term engagement in Afghanistan.11 since Pakistan has refused to provide land transit to Indian Prime Minister reaffirmed India’s commitment Indian goods bound for Afghanistan through its towards Afghan reconstruction process and pledged territory.8 In July 2013, the then India’s Ambassador an additional financial assistance of US $ 50 million to Afghanistan, Amar Sinha, noted that India is fully to Afghanistan. Besides announcing 500 scholarships committed to the development of Chabahar Port as it for Afghan students to pursue higher education in represents the best option for the transit of Indian India, India also announced that it will adopt hundred goods to Afghanistan.9 India used the port in 2012 to (100) villages in Afghanistan to promote and enhance deliver humanitarian aid to Afghanistan demonstrating integrated rural development by introducing solar that the sea-route access to Afghanistan through electrification and rainwater harvesting using Pakistan is not the only option available to India in technologies that have already proven to be the long run.10 Furthermore, India has accomplished successful back in India. India also threw its support the task of constructing Afghanistan’s new parliament behind Afghanistan’s entry into SAARC as a full- building and the construction of Salma Dam project fledged member.12 On October 4, 2011, India and in Herat from which a power transmission line to Afghanistan signed a milestone agreement on Kabul has also been set up. Moreover, India has “Strategic Partnership” that included inter-alia successfully renovated the damaged Indira Gandhi provision for both security and economic cooperation, Institute of Child Health and has regularly dispatched training and equipping of Afghan National Security teams of doctors to Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif and Forces, provision of economic aid and assistance, Kandahar to attend to the massive medical needs of development of mining and energy production, and Afghanistan. India has also granted 500 scholarships establishment of ‘strategic dialogue’ between their annually to Afghan students under the auspices of national security advisers to provide a framework for Indian Council of Cultural Relations (ICCR). cooperation in the area of national security.13 The fact that Afghanistan signed such a broad-based While the war in Afghanistan seems nowhere agreement for the first time in the region underlines near the end, India’s civilian centric policies have the finely tuned and deepening ties between gained wide currency and appreciation at official level Afghanistan and India.14 Commenting on the and among local populace as well. Afghan government importance of India’s renewed engagement with

India’s Aid Diplomacy towards Afghanistan Post 9/11 19 Afghanistan and India’s readiness in assisting cargo worth $6 million. The corridor initiative was Afghanistan in the future, Indian Prime Minister first proposed by President Ghani in 2016. Its Manmohan Singh said: “Our cooperation with materialization aims at boosting India-Afghan trade Afghanistan is an open book. We have civilizational to the tune of $1billion in three years. Moreover, in links, and we are both here to stay. India will stand strategic terms, the novelty of this initiative lies in the by the people of Afghanistan as they prepare to fact that this corridor aims at bypassing Pakistan assume the responsibility for their governance and completely so that Afghanistan’s over-dependence security after the withdrawal of international on Pakistan’s Karachi port can be reduced for forces.”15 India has also been extensively involved in conducting its foreign trade.17 Apart from this, India building institutional capacity by way of training continues to support the multilateral “Heart of Asia” Afghan diplomats, doctors, paramedics, initiative by reaffirming its commitment to support entrepreneurs, lawyers, judges and Afghanistan’s Afghanistan in addressing serious challenges in government officials. Parleys between Indian Prime various sectors. As far of this initiative, the Sixth Heart Minister Manmohan Singh and Afghan President of Asia Conference was hosted by India in December Hamid Karzai in November 2012 in New Delhi 2016 in which senior officials from fourteen countries provided further impetus to the bilateral partnership. including China, Pakistan, Russia, India, and Iran Both leaders agreed on the need for deepening deliberated on a host of issues facing the region in economic cooperation in areas ranging from general and Afghanistan in particular. At the agriculture, small business to mining and conference, it was mutually agreed that Taliban-led infrastructure. Hamid Karzai, in a bid to woo Indian insurgency needs to be contained so as to pave the investors remarked: “We would like to welcome you way for establishing peace in Afghanistan. Moreover, on red carpet and others on grey carpet. If you don’t participating nations equally embraced the idea of the arrive on the red carpet it will get dusty. Therefore, need for reviving peace talks with armed groups so do hurry up and take advantage of the opportunities that the levels of violence could effectively be brought in Afghanistan”.16 down. India, therefore, in the capacity of being a friendly neighbor and a decidedly non-western partner Karzai also participated in the inaugural has been in a position to carve for itself a significant ceremony of inception of Narendra Modi as the Prime space in the strategic landscape of Afghanistan. Minister of India. Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Kabul on September 10, 2014, marked the Drivers of India’s Assistance-Driven Policy first formal diplomatic interaction between the two towards Afghanistan: countries since the inception of the Modi government. India’ proactive and assistance-driven policy towards Her visit focussed on improving strategic cooperation Afghanistan is essentially guided by the following: with the Kabul government and to work closely for Containing Pakistan’s influence: the consolidation of stability and security in Afghanistan is host to a number of vital and strategic Afghanistan. Swaraj’s visit hinted towards the interests for India. It is around these interests that keenness on part of the Modi government to take India has vigorously pursued a pro-active Afghan forward the cordiality achieved over the last thirteen policy and has expanded its diplomatic energy in the years. Prime Minister Modi has been successful in post 9/11 era. Typically, India’s interests in Afghanistan sustaining the positive image India has been able to have been viewed through the prism of Indo-Pak carve for itself within Afghanistan where New Delhi rivalry. This rivalry has largely been driven by real or is generally seen as a promoter of peace as against imagined security threats and has plotted Afghanistan Pakistan which is viewed by ordinary Afghans as the as a field for both countries to gain power and sponsor of violence. More recently, India and influence in the country.18 Limiting Pakistan’s Afghanistan engagement achieved a new milestone influence and ensuring that any regime around the with the opening of a new flight corridor from New order of Taliban is not allowed to gain foothold inside Delhi to Kabul in order to boost trade and commerce Afghanistan remains the top priority for Indian policy relations between the two nations. In this regard, the makers. first plane from Kabul arrived in New Delhi carrying

20 World Focus March 2018 On the one hand, India views good relations with “…divides the world into three concentric circles. In Afghanistan as a means to check the terrorist threat the first, which encompasses the immediate looming large from the Af-Pak region by retaining neighbourhood, India has sought primacy and a veto the latter as a friendly state from which it has the over the actions of outside powers. In the second, capacity to monitor Pakistan and even cultivate assets which encompasses the so-called extended to influence activities in Pakistan.19 While on the neighbourhood stretching across Asia and the Indian other, Pakistan has suffered from historic paranoia Ocean littoral, India has sought to balance the of being trapped in a pincer movement should India influence of other powers and prevent them from be able to gain political and military space inside undercutting its interests. In the third, which includes Afghanistan. Therefore, a friendly political the entire global stage, India has tried to take its place dispensation in Kabul, often referred to as ‘strategic as one of the great powers, a key player in depth’, is viewed by Pakistan as essential to escape international peace and security.”22 the strategic dilemma of being caught between a powerful adversary in India in the east and an It can be deduced from this explanation that irredentist Afghanistan with claims on the Pashtun India is quite keen in projecting itself as a major dominated areas in the west.20 In response, Pakistan regional player and at the same time trying to carve alleges that Indian intelligence personnel particularly out a significant role for itself at the global level as RAW (Research Analysis Wing) officials in well. India’s aid assistance and reconstruction effort connivance with Afghan intelligence are actively in Afghanistan are to be viewed through this paradigm. instigating Baluch separatism inside Pakistan and also India, given its formidable economic and military supporting TTP (Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan). As profile, wants to consolidate itself as a prominent Christine Fair argues, while these mutual regional power willing to take responsibility for recriminations are nearly impossible to verify yet it ensuring security in the region. It was towards this can be said that Pakistan’s most sweeping claims end that India kept its Afghan policy largely in sync are ill founded while at the same time Indian claims with the U.S approach so as to gain wider recognition to complete innocence are also unlikely to be true.21 to take on such a role.

India’s interests in Afghanistan stand in sharp Containing Islamist extremism: contrast with those of Pakistan’s and are virtually One of the serious security concerns that India faces antithetical. India strongly believes that U.S should in Afghanistan is the prospect of return of Taliban not give any undue concessions and disproportionate and its overall impact on the religious fundamentalism importance to Pakistan and its military, often seen by in the region. Taliban’s symbiotic relationship with the west as indispensible to Afghan peace process Pakistan’s military and intelligence establishment as India fears about the close ties that Pakistan shares further compounds the problem for India.23 Given with Taliban. Any move by U.S aimed at giving more Taliban’s anti-India rhetoric, India would like to see space to Pakistan’s military, India contends, is going the consolidation of democracy in Afghanistan besides to jeopardise the entire effort of ushering Afghanistan denying any political or military space to Taliban and into a stable and democratic state. It is in this backdrop other such fundamentalist groups. This will not only that a robust Indo-Pak rivalry manifests itself inside ensure the safety and security of Indian personnel Afghanistan. However, any attempt by either of the working on infrastructural projects in Afghanistan but two states to completely sideline the other is surely also cut off Afghanistan as a training ground for going to be detrimental to the security of the entire Pakistan based terrorist outfits operating inside region in general and to the rebuilding process of Kashmir. The return of Taliban in its current form Afghanistan in particular. will not only pose a security challenge to India inside Afghanistan only but also lead to increased insurgency Expanding regional influence: in Indian administered Kashmir which has seen a Explaining how India defines its strategic space, C. considerable decline in the recent years. India’s Raja Mohan argues that India’s grand strategy: support to Northern Alliance and its refusal for any negotiations with Taliban are a part of this objective.24

India’s Aid Diplomacy towards Afghanistan Post 9/11 21 Taping energy resources: in putting to an end nearly four decades of violence Stability in Afghanistan remains an indispensible and bloodshed in Afghanistan. necessity for India in many ways. It will not only guarantee India with the opportunity of taping vast Endnotes oil and natural gas reserves in Afghanistan but also 1 Text of the Treaty of Friendship accessed from the website of Ministry of create a viable route for transporting energy from External Affairs, Government of India. Found at: http://www.mea.gov.in/ bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/6584/Treaty+of+Friendship (Accessed on 14 Central Asian states to Indian markets. Afghanistan July 2014). considered as the traditional gateway to Central Asian 2 Raghav Sharm, “India’s relations with Afghanistan,” in David Scott (ed.) states which are known for their abundant energy Handbook of India’s International Relations, New York, Routledge, 2011, pp. 107-108. and hydrocarbon reserves thus holds pivotal 3 Rasul Bakhsh Rais,, “Afghanistan and the Regional Powers,” Asian importance for India particularly in a scenario where Survey, September 1993, Vol. 33, No. 9, p. 913. the demand for oil and hydrocarbons are on an ever 4 C. Christine Fair, “Under the Shrinking U.S Security Umbrella: India’s high note. Moreover, Afghanistan’s oil reserves have Endgame in Afghanistan,” The Washington Quarterly, spring 2011, Vol. 34, No. 2, p. 180. hitherto been left largely untapped which may likely 5 Harsh V. Pant, “The Afghanistan Conflict: India’s Changing Role,” The create an avenue for enhanced investment in the Middle East Quarterly, Spring 2011, Vol. XVIII, No. 2, pp. 31-32. Found country. at: http://www.meforum.org/2895/India-Afghanistan (Accessed on June 5, 2013). 6 Zahid Ali Khan, “Post 9/11 Development of Indo-Afghan Ties: Pakistan’s Conclusion: Concerns and Policy Options,” Regional Studies, Winter 2012-2013, Vol. On January 4, 2018, President Donald Trump XXXI, No. 1, p. 83. announced the suspension of all security-related 7 Ibid., pp. 83-84. 8 Armayan Bhatnagar and Divya John, “Accessing Afghanistan and Central assistance to Pakistan until Islamabad could prove Asia: Importance of Chabahar to Inida,” Observer Research Foundation its commitment to fighting terrorism and sever its ties Special Report, October 2013, Issue No. 3, p. 7. with the Taliban. The rationale for the suspension of 9 “India says Iran’s Chabahar Port best for transit of goods to Afghanistan,” assistance was put forward by President Trump Press TV, July 18, 2013. 10 Rani D. Mullen and Sumit Ganguly, “The Rise of India’s Soft Power,” himself by declaring that Pakistan provides “safe Foreign Policy, May 8, 2012.Found at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/ havens to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan.” articles/2012/05/08/the_rise_of_indian_soft_power (accessed on 12 July While many have welcomed the move; others believe 2014). 11 that the decision has been taken in haste. Pakistan’s Zahid Shahab and Stuti Bhatnagar, “Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations and the Indian Factor,” Pakistan Horizon, April 2007, Vol. 60, No. 2, p. 166. nexus with the Taliban is well known and so is the 12 Amiya Chandra “India and Afghanistan: Renewing Economic Relations,” fact that Islamabad will not sever its ties with the in K. Warikoo (ed.) Afghanistan: Challenges and Opportunities, Vol. 2, group till the time it feels its interests in Afghanistan New Delhi, Pentagon Press, 2007, pp. 182-183. 13 Found at: http://www.Indo-Afg/India,%20Afghanistan%20sign%20strategi are secure. Further, United States is bound to %20pat%20-%20WSJ.com.htm. cooperate with Pakistan so long as its troops are 14 Ashraf Haidari, “Afghanistan is seeking to strengthen regional partnerships stationed in Afghanistan for it needs Pakistan in order in a post-NATO era,” The Diplomat, July 5, 2014. to send supplies (fuel and weaponry etc) into 15 Rama Lakshmi, “India and Afghanistan sign security and trade pact,” Washington Post, October 4, 2011. Afghanistan. Moreover, United States is quite aware 16 The Hindu, 13 November, 2012. of the indispensability of Pakistan in so far as bringing 17 Amitabh Pashupati Revi, “With New Move Involving Planes, India and the Taliban to the negotiating table is concerned. Afghanistan Bypass Pakistan,” WWW.NDTV.COM, June 20, 2017. 18 Therefore, there is little doubt that Pakistan continues Mukhopadhaya, Gautam, “Is a Regional Strategy Viable in Afghanistan,” in Ashley J. Tellis and Aroop Mukharji (eds.) Carnegie Endowment For to be a major player as far as Afghanistan is International Peace, 2010, pp. 25-27. concerned. Notwithstanding the US policy towards 19 Fair, C. Christine, “India in Afghanistan and Beyond: Opportunities and Pakistan and Pakistan’s fixation with Taliban, India Constraints,”Century Foundation Report, 2010, p. 8. 20 Riffat Hussain, “Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan: Continuity and should continue to pursue its civilian-centric policy Change,” Strategic Studies, 2002, Vol. 4, No. 22.Found at: http:// towards Afghanistan for that seems the only way by www.issi.org.pk/journal/2002_files/no_4/article/3a.htm. Accessed on: 3 June which India can sustain the goodwill generated , 2011. between New Delhi and Kabul over the last sixteen 21 Christine. C. Fair, “India in Afghanistan and Beyond: Opportunities and Constraints,” Century Foundation Report, 2010, pp.13-14. years. If ‘talks’ with Taliban come to transpire as the 22 C. Raja Mohan, “India and the Balance of Power,” Foreign Affairs, July new reality in Afghanistan, then India should readily 2006, Vol. 85, No. 4, p. 18. back the process because in doing so it can contribute 23 Gautam Mukhopadhaya, Op.cit: 25-27. 24 Raghav Sharma, Op.cit. 22 World Focus March 2018 Modi’s Successful Diplomacy: Neighbourhood First Prof. (Dr.) Satish Kumar & Dr. Raghvendra Pratap Singh

India has achieved a commendable feat in with which its neighbours are comfortable. Fifth is to recent years in the field of the foreign policy. connect the neighbourhood through cultural heritage. Throughout the period of Cold War and the Post Cold With Bangladesh, the completion of the Land War, it was categorised as a reluctant power. It was Boundary Agreement, improvements in energy meant that it had the resources but it did not act or it connectivity, and steps taken towards accessing the did not manage to act. Three times India failed to port of Chittagong have all been crucial developments undertake the nuclear tests during the Congress that is bound to set a positive tone for a region long regime. Finally it achieved in May, 1998 during defined by cross-border suspicion and animosity. Vajpayee regime. The three years of Modi’s India’s focus on connectivity is also gradually diplomatic achievements are many. From his First extending outward, whether to Chabahar in Iran or Neighbourhood Policy to a Leading power in world Kaladan in Myanmar and act as a potential alternative politics narrates the success. The recent tussle with to India. China, American President declaring India as a power centre, clubbing of pacific countries in a row and Modi’s Look East Policy: India-Myanmar subsequently abandoning Pakistan: all these factors Relations have been thoughtfully worked out by India. The three There has been a difference of substance and action and half year’s journey was full of challenges. Modi between the Look East Policy and Look Act Policy. from the very beginning started with Neighbourhood The Look East Policy was a brilliant idea of PV First Policy. Further through his non-stop journey Narshima Rao. But it was stuck in its quagmire and connected to the extended neighbourhood countries, only highlighted the major concerns of India’s north- especially focussed on South East Asian Countries, eastern states, which were connected by Myanmar’s connected India with these countries on development borders and where insurgents groups were very and cultural heritage. PM Modi tactfully sidelined active and hampering the interests of India. The major Pakistan from the gaining economic packages from policy decisions confided on papers and did not travel the west especially US. He vigorously pursued and on the ground. Whereas Look Act has enlarged the grabbed the places for making Indian presence felt canvass. The scope and vision of India-Myanmar at global level. relations to a large extent diversified. In a span of three years Indian Prime Minister, Modi had visited These are the yardsticks through which it twice to Myanmar. The economic terms were can be judged that India has not merely changed the accelerated, road linkages between the two countries track of its foreign policy but achieved a remarkable were planned, and joint naval patrolling exercises were feat and place in the world politics. The completed. India also assured to provide military ‘Neighbourhood First’ signifies certain things. The training for Myanmar’s armed forces. Still trade first is India’s willingness to give political and relations between India and Myanmar is very little. diplomatic priority to its immediate neighbours and There are many reasons of slow growth of trade. the Indian Ocean island states. The second is to The problem of connectivity is a bottleneck. provide neighbours with support, as needed, in the form of resources, equipment, and training. The third, Therefore, there are many challenges and and perhaps most important, is greater connectivity hurdles on the way of bilateral relations. The and integration, so as to improve the free flow of democratic structure in Myanmar is in its initial stage. goods, people, energy, capital, and information. The The Key leader Aung Sui Kyi has moved along with fourth is to promote a model of India-led regionalism the Junta. The external pressure from the west and Modi’s Successful Diplomacy: Neighbourhood First 23 east are always there. Certain regions bordering China Myanmar are mostly populated by ethnic communities are beyond the control of government. Economic with their own distinct ethnic communities with their structures are in very bad shape. Therefore, India- own distinct, religious and linguistic identities, different Myanmar relations have many opportunities and from the rest of the countries. India’s Myanmar policy challenges. For Myanmar, China is the largest trade is also driven by the China factor. In north Myanmar, partner. The challenges which are emerging from China has de-facto control over Myanmar’s Kachin internal conflict and external pressures are more state that borders India’s state. Growing Chinese important for India-Myanmar relations. The recent influence in regions of Myanmar that borders India Rohingya crisis in Myanmar stirred fresh crisis would enable China to spread its influence and resume between the two countries. India stand was very its support to rebel and insurgent groups in the north categorical; India endorsed the Myanmar’s view eastern regions. China has been steadily increasing its despite high voltage pressure from the west and influence (both economic and political) in the country. internal political pressure within India. India supported It is Myanmar’s largest trade partner, has investments actions of Myanmar’s government. Modi praised in the country and has played a proactive role in Nobel Peace laureate Suu Kyi’s “leadership” in his bringing various armed groups to the negotiating table. first bilateral visit to this Southeast Asian country, which is facing international pressure over the This cooperation on ethnic issues has reaped Rohingya issue. economic dividends as India needs Myanmar for coordinating patrols of the southern Indian Ocean. The strategic importance of Myanmar is Along with that, Rakhine state is a crucial link for huge. India shares a long land border of over 1600 India’s hydrocarbon and trade ambitions; India has Km with Myanmar as well as a maritime boundary been working on connecting northeast Indian states in the Bay of Bengal. Four north-eastern states viz. to Sittwe port. India is still dealing with northeast Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram insurgent camps, such as the National Socialist share boundary with Myanmar. These geo-strategic Council of Nagalim and United National Liberation realities encompass our broader interests in the Indian Front of Manipur, operating from Kachin, Shan, and Ocean region. Both countries share a heritage of Chin states in Myanmar.PM Modi has already religious, linguistic and ethnic ties. Further, Myanmar described Myanmar as a “key pillar” of India’s ‘Act is the only ASEAN country adjoining India and, East’ policy and has expressed his commitment to therefore, our gateway to South East Asia with which strengthen the bilateral relationship in all areas. India we are seeking greater economic integration through should manage to upgrade the Kalewa-Yargyi road India’s ‘Look East’ and now ‘Act East’ segment to highway standard, while Myanmar Policy.Myanmar shares common borders with five develops the Yargyi-Monywa portion, it will greatly countries: Bangladesh 193 kilometres, China 2,185 improve India’s connectivity and relationship with both kilometres, India 1,643 kilometres, Laos 235 Myanmar and Thailand. kilometres and Thailand 1,800 kilometres. India dominates Myanmar’s western borders, just as China India and Sri Lanka Ties dominates its north-eastern borders. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Sri Lanka in 2017. That was his second visit to Sri Lanka. First Thailand borders the entire eastern part of was in 2015. At that time Sri Lankan President Myanmar. As a littoral of the Indian Ocean, Mahinda Rajapaksa was tilted towards China. He Myanmar’s strategic value further increases. Its 1,930 brought China closer to Indian Ocean further. This kilometres long coastline, dominates the eastern arch time the new President of Sri Lanka Maithripala of the Bay of Bengal, leaning on to the Malacca Sirisena has better chemistry with our Indian Prime Straight. Thus, Myanmar provides China the shortest Minister Narendra Modi. Both the leaders are trying land route sea access to South China Sea. Myanmar’s to develop a new route of bilateral relations. Most of ocean boundaries are barely 30 kilometres from the Modi’s critics allege that it is merely symbolic and Andaman Islands, increasing its maritime security rhetorical which does not augur any meaningful potential. Both sides of the regions bordering change. At the surface, the fire might not be visible,

24 World Focus March 2018 but the moment we remove the ashes accumulated recognising its special position in the sacred geography over the seven decades of the Congress foreign policy, of Buddhism, and acknowledging Colombo’s heat is felt from the ashes. It is not merely an invitation leadership role in Asia and in the Indian Ocean.It is a as a chief guest of the auspicious occasion of Vesak well-known fact that China has been trying to dock Day celebrations in Sri Lanka, but a new beginning its nuclear missiles in Sri Lanka. It has been which is based on the understanding of geo- developing ports in the blue water near Sri Lanka. It economics. is also well-known that the minimum distance between India and Sri Lanka is merely 22 km. The The context will be clearer if the past policy Chinese nuclear missiles with such proximity posed is put in the context.India-Sri Lanka relations were serious danger to Indian security. Despite the largest driven by threat perception and internal dynamics. trading partner within the SAARC country, the The mutual threat of hurting each other, Sri Lanka volume of trade between India and Sri Lanka was always perceived India as a great bully which was meagre during the Congress regime. China’s One there to challenge its sovereignty. The internal politics Belt One Road (OBOR) is moving with a great speed. of Tamil Nadu was more dominant while dealing with Sri Lanka. The geographical locations, cultural fabrics When Modi was in Sri Lanka, China invited and geo-economics were subsequently thrown into 30 countries to participate in OBOR initiative in the dustbin for safeguarding the interests of Tamil Beijing. Sri Lanka is one of the leading nations, China Nadu agenda of ethnicity. This was how love and wants to rope in for the 21st century Silk Route.The hate of Tamils dictated the bilateral ties of the two US or any other powers are weighing their own nations. Sending peacekeeping force to Sri-Lanka and benefits and losses while dealing with China. In such declaring Tamil Tigers as a terrorist organisation situation, what options do India have? Modi’s foreign following the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi dictated policy is not merely dynamic but creating a new wave the same formula. in the subcontinent. India-Sri Lanka is best example of this scheme. Modi is bridging the trust deficit Second, the policy of isolation during the between the two countries. He has been trying to Congress regime provided the great powers to meddle intensify the high-level political engagement with Sri in the Indian subcontinent. Initially America and later Lanka. During the visit of Sri Lanka’s PM to India on China made rapid strides in the area. India recently, a number of agreements were signed. India remained a preacher of good practices of world peace has shown great enthusiasm in undertaking the big without any substance. China used this opportunity projects in Sri Lanka and decided to complete it on to maximise its feat. First it did in Himalayan state time. and later into the terrain of Indian Ocean which has been popularised as a pearl of springs. Gradually, the Modi has purposefully visited central Sri space for manoeuvring hard power was not an option Lanka, where Indian Tamils are located. Their identity for India. Space has been hijacked by China.If we and political outlook are sharply different from the see the move of Modi in the existing conditions, we North-East Tamils, who were eyesore for the Lankan find a blending of hard realism with idealism, which Government. They are extremely poor and deprived could be narrated in the post-modern world as a neo- of state support. Modi has also sought to restore realistic approach. deeper cultural connect between the two nations as part of his effort to strengthen Buddhism. During the He is moving with long-term agenda, Congress regime, Buddhism was not thrust upon as reaching out to the people of the South Asian countries an effective tool of foreign policy. It was Modi who through the strongest emotional appeals. Strategic made it a successful venture. While delivering speech commentator C Raja Mohan said that past Indian he connected Indian feelings to Lankan people. He Government committed “monumental error” in their capitalised on the fact that Buddhism is a defining Sri Lanka Policy. According to him, India can rebuild element of Sri Lanka national identity and it is right the special relationships with Sri Lanka by reclaiming time to reconnect the neglected spiritual identity the shared spiritual heritage with that country, between the two nations. Modi announced the direct

Modi’s Successful Diplomacy: Neighbourhood First 25 Air India flights from Colombo to Varanasi. It was adventure was being challenged, Pakistan struggled Sri Lankan Buddhism which enriched India. Sri to find more friends from Islamic countries and East Lankan monk Anagarika Dhammapala set up the Asian countries tried to scale new lines of alliances. Mahabodhi Society in 1891. But taking cue from chameleon world politics, Modi’s policy augured new features to India foreign policy. Buddhist diplomacy is not merely a cultural Once Stephen Cohen wrote a book India as an feat but a geo-strategic stratagem. China is also emerging power, many of the commentators started wooing the Buddhist countries to follow its design. It talking about Indian strength and its future role. Since is doing to safeguard its interests in Tibet. If India 2000 to 2014, India remained a reluctant power, wins the heart of Sri Lankans, the Chinese flow of merely an alley and a balancer, not the real power. power will be duly checkmated. Last week Sri Lanka 2017 created the stage where India was categorised did not allow Chinese submarine to dock in Colombo. as a leading power. This is not merely on the basis of India recently gifted South Asia satellite for 60 page documents of NSA of America where communication to six countries, including Sri Lanka. America called India a partner and a leading power. It is our largest trading partner in SAARC, whose It has its strategic relevance but the major initiatives port in Colombo receives more than 70 per cent of PM Modi made India a leading power. India shipments from India. Our cultural fabrics will convert weaved within its own region a strong India centric into geo-economics which may result in greater rapid approach. Couple of months ago India celebrated economic development. Now the major disputes Bodhi Parva, a celebration of Buddhist heritage to between India and Sri Lanka are fishing rights. Quite mark the 20th anniversary of a Bay of Bengal Forum. often Indian fishermen step in the Sri Lankan It is known as BIMSTEC. It clubs five South Asian periphery. This issue has been discussed during nations (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Modi’s visit.The ethnic issue of Tamil was also Lanka. Two South East nations Burma and Thailand brought into notice. The civil nuclear use was talked were also included. Modi continued to focus and about. Many other agenda were discussed. But the expand India’s extended neighbourhood approach. success of his visit lies in new insight which he The meeting of 10 ASEAN countries was held in discovered and is consistently working on it.There November. With the beginning of 2018, the world has been phenomenal improvement in the bilateral witnessed the gatherings of ASEAN leaders at the ties between India and Sri Lanka. The Tamil factor Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi. is losing its overstated orchestration in bilateral ties. India is very keen to weave its ties with Sri Lanka Obviously, the ties with America are narrating without munching too much on China factor. India is different world order. By the end of Obama as a also not interested in inviting any other superpower president, experts started talking about a new world to rein in China. The retreat of seven decades could order which would be driven by China. The building not be corrected in three years. But three years of of new alliances challenged the Chinese plan. The Modi’s foreign policy has provided opportunity to NSS says that the US will help South Asian nations regain our trust and affections. Therefore, India and maintain their sovereignty as China increases its Sri Lanka are moving on towards an altogether influence in the region. The NSS seeks to promote different route of bilateral relations that are more South Asian and Central Asian economic linkages, indigenous and friendly. It is not the result of power connectivity and trade. India appreciated the strategic tussle of world politics or under the guidance of importance given by the US to bilateral ties in its new superpowers; it is based on mutual benefit and National Security Strategy and said that the two respect. This is the mantra of Modi’s foreign policy, countries share common objectives, including moving through soft power to vital power. combating terrorism.Trump’s NSS paints India in a very different light: “We welcome India’s emergence India’s Stature as a World Power as a leading global power and stronger strategic 2017 was full of events in the world politics. With and defence partner,” it proclaims and adds that Trump in America at the helm of affairs, we have the US will “support its leadership role in Indian Ocean been seeing changes in the world theatre. Chinese security and throughout the broader region”. The NSS

26 World Focus March 2018 goes on to state, “We will expand our defence and Nepal (BBIN) grouping.PM Modi is working on to security cooperation with India, a Major Defence bring many developing countries together which may Partner of the United States, and support India’s work out for multipolarity. But it can be like NAM growing relationships throughout the region” and which brought more loses than laurels. India is part “We will seek to increase quadrilateral of many international organisations like the G-20, East cooperation with Japan, Australia, and India.” Asia Summit, BRICS and Sanghai Cooperation America also tried to discipline Pakistan. Trump said Organisation. If collecting all these countries together categorically ”We will also work with the countries India may create a new group to place its feet more of the region, including Pakistan, to mitigate the staunchly in world politics. There are many takers of threat from terrorism and to support a viable peace India’s call. Since Modi has connected with them and and reconciliation process to end the violence in also narrated the forthcoming Chinese threat to many Afghanistan and improve regional stability.” of the smaller countries.

For instance, in August, when the US India’s maritime interests are significant. approved a $255-million aid package for Pakistan India has 7,500 km coastline, 1,200 islands and 2.4 (provided nearly $33 billion since 2002), Trump said, million sq. kms EEZ. For decades Maritime focus “We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe was missing out. 2017 has created new alliances. havens for terrorist organisations, the Taliban, and The Indo-pacific quad lateral alliances have many other groups that pose a threat to the region and advantages. The Indo-Pacific is a major market route. beyond... We have been paying Pakistan billions and For Asia it turned to be the most important strategic billions of dollars at the same time they are housing route. Therefore, Indian venture in the pacific will the very terrorists that we are fighting. But that will provide much relief and supports. India is rising in a have to change, and that will change immediately.” world system that has been largely favourable to its Secretary of State Rex Tillerson added, “We’re going rise, but one that India was not involved in creating. to be conditioning our support for Pakistan and our According to Modi, the present international relationship with them on them delivering results in environment represents a rare opportunity for India, this area.” There will be great relief for India if which it must use to “position itself in a leading role, Pakistan is being reined fiscally by America. It all rather than just a balancing force, globally.” There happened to Modi’s three years of relentless efforts are many challenges were also posed in 2017. The to brand Pakistan a terrorist state. most important was Chinese show off in Doklam. Almost 70 days standoff at Doklam talked about PM Modi connected India to the world. First China’s future plan of actions. There is reports two years he visited many countries and invited many Chinese aggression in the border areas. Nepal politics countries heads of state to India. In his third year of moved left ward which would be another challenge stint he focused more on cultural, difital and physical for Delhi. Nevertheless, India’s emerging stature will connectivity. India started pushing in for its due place deter smaller neighbors at the same time China as in the world institutions. The recent victory in ICJ well. India in real sense has become a leading global was a glaring example. These public articulations, power. Its action has currents and magnifying impact. combined with the nature, outcomes, and timings of Indian association with the U.S. in recent times has Modi’s diplomatic activities, offer a clear picture of galvanized not only its global image but also started India’s priorities and strategic objectives. India’s making regional impact of its economic growth for focus on connectivity is also gradually extending furthering bilateral relations. outward, whether to Chabahar in Iran or Kaladan in Myanmar. Although India will continue investing in Conclusion the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation It is not merely a balancing power, playing a second (SAARC) as an institutional vehicle, it has also fiddle role. Now it has become power whose words expressed a willingness to develop issue-specific are taken seriously. The definition of smart power groupings that are not held hostage to consensus. Two according Joseph Nye is an ability to use the soft examples of this are the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India- power along with the hard power. India has displayed

Modi’s Successful Diplomacy: Neighbourhood First 27 this charisma against China. After Doklam India 4.V.Portyakov, “ Foreign Policy of the people’s created a new group which can deter Chinese Republic of China 2016, Far Eastern Affairs, 2017, influence not merely in Pacific but in other parts of Number-2 the world. India by aligning with America, it did not 5.Jingdong Yuan, “ Sino-Indian Economic Ties since surrender its biting teeth, now it knows better how 1988: Progress, Problems and Prospects” Journal of and when to bite or better it to swallow. The coming Current Chinese Affairs 2016 years will be more challenging for India. 6.C.Raja Mohan, “Raja Mandala Series” Indian Footnotes Express 1.Shyam Saran, “How India Sees the World” 7.Swaran Singh, “ India-China Tussle in Myanmar” th Juggernaut 2017 New Indian Express, 19 December, 2017 2.Hal Brands, “U.S Grand Strategy in an age of 8.V.P Dutt, “India’s Foreign Policy Since Nationalism” The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2017 Independence” NBT th 3.Arthur Waldon, “How the East Asian Crisi will 9.Shyam Saran “ India and Pakistan” 12 September, Change International Relations” Institute for 2017 International Policy Studies, 2016 10.The Wire, 2017 November 11.The First post, January, 2018

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28 World Focus March 2018 India’s Policy of Non-Reciprocity in South Asia: Unending Challenges Dr. Arunoday Bajpai

The principle of Non-Reciprocity and greater linkages among these territories and nations. When focus on regional connectivity are the two important India emerged as a successor state of British and aspects of India’s contemporary South Asian Policy. became independent in 1947, this historical fact con- Non-Reciprocity stands for a foreign policy posture siderably influenced the evolution and implementa- in which a nation extends a helpful gesture to other tion of India’s South Asia Policy. India’s South Asian nations without expectation of any reciprocal re- Policy is anchored on the core ideas of maintaining sponse from them. In South Asian context it means friendly relations with all countries and promotion of that India will do her best for the growth and pros- peace, stability, development and prosperity in the perity of her neighbor without any reciprocal returns region. In view of her perceived and real security from them for the same. The idea and practice of and strategic interests, India has abhorred the idea of Non-Reciprocity is the logical conclusion of India’s external influence in the region. Accordingly, India size position and expected role in South Asia. South has expected from her neighbouring countries to de- Asia consists of the territorial space occupied by eight sist external involvement in a manner which is detri- members of the South Asian Association for Regional mental to India’s legitimate security interests. India Cooperation (SAARC) namely Afghanistan, Pakistan, secured her strategic interests through consultation, India, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and treaty obligations and strengthening development part- Bhutan. India holds a central position in South Asia. nership with neighbouring countries. The Indo-Bhutan India comprises 72 percent of the land area and 77 Treaty of Peace and Friendship, 1949 and similar percent of the population in South Asia. No two coun- treaty with Nepal in 1951were designed to serve tries (except Pakistan and Afghanistan) of the re- above objectives. With her limited resources, India gion share boundary with each other, but India shares also initiated as early as in 1950s a development part- land or maritime boundary with all countries of this nership with her neighbouring countries to develop region. And not only the physical size; India’s larger infrastructure and human resources in the region. military and economic strength and capabilities also However, India’s decisive defeat in the 1962 war with constitute a critical factor in its relations with other China not only undermined India’s position in South neighbours. She is the largest trading partner of as Asia but also encouraged the practice of neighbours well as leading investor in many of the countries of playing ‘China Card’ against India. In 1960s, Nepal the region like Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. India tried to strengthen her ties with China to balance In- has also close historical religious, socio-cultural, eco- dia. nomic, ethnic and linguistic relationship with all South Asian states. These ties have been growing since In a way, this practice with more vigor is con- ancient times. tinued to be deployed by India’s neighbours to hedge against India’s predominant position in the region. Evolution of India’s South Asian Policy- In the Following the Indo-Pak war and emergence of inde- recent past, during the British rule, while present day pendent Bangladesh with decisive intervention by Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Burma (Myanmar) India in 1971, and merger of Sikkim with India in 1975, were parts of British Indian Empire; Bhutan, Tibet, India’s neighbours became more apprehensive with and Nepal were the British protectorate states; India’s role, positions and intentions in South Asia. In Maldives and Sri Lanka were separate British terri- 1979, when Ziaur Rehman propagated the idea of tories; and British had considerable influence on Af- regional cooperation (SAARC), it was also viewed ghanistan. This historical fact further expanded and as a regional device to balance India’s regional ambi- strengthened ethnic, social, economic and political tions in South Asia. The SAARC struggled to move India’s Policy of Non-Reciprocity in South Asia: Unending Challenges 29 ahead due to sharp difference between its two larg- on India’s regional position and not on the principle of est members- India and Pakistan. A careful obser- reciprocity. vation of Pakistan’s foreign engagement demonstrates that while her negative engagements have been di- Neighbourhood Policy, 2005- To address the need rected in South Asia, her cooperative engagements of regional integration in South Asia in the age of have always found outlets in non-South Asian direc- globalization, India announced a New Neighbourhood tions. The disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991, the Policy in 2005, which laid emphasis on the following end of cold war and the onset of globalization in 1990s points (Saran: 2006) unleashed new forces stimulating change and modi- fications in the external political and economic en- 1. India should not neglect her border areas as they gagements of South Asian actors. are the connectors with our neighbours. The development of these outposts needs mindset change Policy of Non-reciprocity: It was in this diverse in India. background that India articulated her policy of No- Reciprocity with her neighbours. This policy was part 2. India should make major efforts to develop of Gujral Doctrine, initiated by the then Indian Prime connectivity in the region to facilitate movement of Minister Indra Kumar Gujral in 1998. However, it goods and people. This is the most significant does not mean to suggest the prior to this doctrine, component of new policy. India’s all engagements in South Asia were motivated by give and take with her neighbours. India, given to 3. India should encourage cultural contacts and people her large size and economic development has always to people contact among countries of South Asia. willing to help them in their effort for growth and There are very strong cultural affinities among the development. India’s well elaborated development people of the subcontinent and by giving full play to partnership since 1950s in South Asia bears this point. these affinities, a sense of togetherness and shared However, the Gujral Doctrine sharply focused on the identities may be enforced. principle of non-reciprocity in the changing times. The Gujral Doctrine tried to address the post cold war Neighbourhood First Policy, 2014- Yet another conditions in the neighbourhood. It identifies South policy intervention in South Asian came in the name Asia as the first circle in India’s foreign policy. This of Neighbourhood First Policy in 2014. The Policy Doctrine is the set of five principles, which under- was announced by the new government led by Modi. lines a new perspective on India’s policy towards her This policy, with following features (Chaturvedi: neighbours. These principles are: 2015), laid emphasis on focusing India’s external engagements in her neighbourhood: 1. India will not insist on the principle of reci- procity, while dealing with her neighbours. India will 1. To build a political connectivity through dialogue accommodate their valid interests with the spirit of and engagement; mutual trust and good faith. 2. To follow through announcements and tracking 2. The countries of South Asia will not allow the use progress; of their territory against the other countries of this 3. Renewed emphasis on seamless connectivity – region. economic, physical, and digital. Modi’s emphasis is 3. The countries will refrain from interference in the on five Ts – trade, tourism, talent, technology, and internal affairs of other nations. tradition; 4. The countries of South Asia shall respect the 4. An active collaboration and partnership with extra- territorial integrity and sovereignty of other countries. regional/major powers on issues of mutual interests; 5. The countries will solve their disputes by peaceful 5. A greater attention on India’s leadership role into means through bilateral negotiations. the region; and 6. An argument of power – both hard and soft power. The Gujral Doctrine is based on the recognition that This is more visible in India’s hard line approach India’s relations with her neighbours should be based particularly in case of Pakistan.

30 World Focus March 2018 Implementation of Policy satellite. Pakistan did not join the project, stating that Within the broad framework of the above policy it was working on its own satellite. The South Asia formulations, India has been conducting her diplomacy Satellite provides crucial information on tele-medicine, in South Asia at three levels: Regional, Rub-regional, tele-education, banking and television broadcasting Bilateral. Since, this paper is concerned with India’s opportunities. It is also equipped with remote sensing benevolent engagement with her neighbours, the state of the art technology which enables collection focus would be on India’s development partnership of real-time weather data and helps in observations in the region. of the geology of the South Asian nations (The Hindu: 2017). At Regional Level, SAARC is the main instrument for India’s engagement with her neighbours Amidst persistent hurdles posed by Pakistan, collectively. SAARC was mandated to promote India has pushed ahead the agenda of SAARC in growth development and cooperation in the region. past three decades. Yet, SAARC is known more for SAARC identified some important areas of its failures in the field of economic or development cooperation like Agriculture and Rural development; integration than to its meager achievements listed Bio-technology; Culture; Economic and Trade; above. South Asia continues to be the least integrated Education; Energy; Environment; Finance; Funding region in the world. A World Bank study remarks, Mechanism; Information Technology and ‘South Asia is the least integrated region in the world, Communication; People to People contacts; Poverty where integration is measured by intraregional trade Alleviation; Science and Technology; Security in goods, capital, and ideas. Intraregional trade as a aspects; Social development; and Tourism. But it focus share of total trade is the lowest for South Asia. There has shifted from project based cooperation to trade is little cross-border investment within South Asia. liberalization. Its major achievements are: signing of The flow of ideas, crudely measured by the cross- South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement in border movement of people, or the number of 2006 and free trade in services in 2010. Some other telephone calls, or the purchase of technology and notable achievements are: the Regional Convention royalty payments, are all low for South Asia. In South on Suppression of Terrorism; SAARC Agriculture Asia, only seven percent of international telephone Information Centre at Dhaka; SAARC Audio Visual calls are regional, compared to 71 percent for East Exchange programme (SAVE); adoption of Social Asia. Poor connectivity, cross-border conflicts, and Charter to set targets for eradication of poverty, concerns about security, have all contributed to South population stabilization and human resource Asia being the least integrated region in the world’ development; establishment of SAARC Development (World Bank: 2006). Fund, Food Bank, the Arbitration Council, and the Regional Standards Organizations, establishment of There are various reasons identified for the SAARC University at Delhi and so on. less successful profile of SAARC like wide differences among members particularly Indo-Pak The 17th SAARC Summit held in Addu, conflict; asymmetrical development and growth of Maldives in November, 2011 has focused on enhancing nations’ involvement of extra-regional actors; lack of connectivity in the region and India has already political will on the part of regional leadership, lack accorded due priority to regional connectivity in her of consensus among members on the core issues of policy statement in 2005. During the 18th SAARC security and development, apprehension towards India summit held in Nepal in 2014, the Indian Prime and so on. Minister Narendra Modi mooted the idea of a satellite serving the needs of SAARC member nations as a However, a major weakness of emerges from part of India’s Neighbourhood First Policy. The South its wrong direction and priorities. Out of total nine Asia Satellite, also known as GSAT-9 was launched Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in Asia, four are on the 5th May, 2017. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, in South Asian alone namely-Afghanistan, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka are the users Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. Maldives has of the multi-dimensional facilities provided by the graduated from this list just few years back. Since

India’s Policy of Non-Reciprocity in South Asia: Unending Challenges 31 the economies of member states except India, are recurring continuous to support to terrorists groups small and less developed, the SAARC should have active in India. Other members like Bangladesh, moved on the path of ‘development integration’ rather Nepal, and Bhutan also supported India’s stand and than trade liberalization and economic integration. finally this summit was postponed and remains so till today. The development integration model argues that the regional integration among less developed Also, it was not a coincidence that India countries rests on the proposition that it is necessary invited BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi- to look beyond existing patterns of production to what Sectoral Technological and Economic Cooperation) is likely to emerge in the future, when comparative during Regional Outreach meet with BRICS during advantage and trade patterns are likely to be different. latter’s summit meeting held in Goa in October, 2016. Because the level of industrial and economic BIMSTEC, formed in 1997, has seven members- development is so low, it is therefore possible to Thailand, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, undertake a given degree of industrial development Nepal and Bhutan. The membership of BIMSTEC is more economically by taking advantage of the cross cutting with that of ASEAN and SAARC. economies of scale and specialization within the Hence, it projected as a bridge between South Asia region. (Robson: 1968). The development integration and South East Asia. It has identified thirteen areas model has some features that make it different from of cooperation: Environment; Transport and the traditional market integration theory. It sees the Communications; Terrorism; Tourism; Fish rationale of economic integration to lie in the changing production; Agriculture and Energy; Technological production and trading structures. Second, it tries to Cooperation; People to People contact; Poverty find ways to secure an equitable distribution of the Alleviation; Cultural Cooperation; and Trade and benefits between participating countries. Finally, Investment. BIMSTEC members have signed free political cooperation at a high level is seen as trade agreement and its three summits have held in necessary right from the beginning of an integration 2004 (Thailand), 2008 (India) and 2014 (Myanmar) process, mainly as a consequence of the attempt to and the fourth edition is scheduled to be held in Nepal. intervene in the distribution of the benefits (Helda: So far, the progress of BIMSTEC has, at best, 2006). SAARC should concentrate on development remained patchy, but it is likely to get more attention regionalism with focus on enhancing production from India in future as an instrument of sub-regional capacity and development in the member countries economic cooperation rather than trade and investment liberalization. This is not only a less contentious project but also an At sub-regional level, India is also looking important prerequisite for promoting regional for trilateral or quadrilateral mechanisms to promote integration. Yet, India, being the largest and most connectivity and cooperation. A case in point is BBIN capable member of SAARC, cannot escape from (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) Motor Vehicles the responsibility for its failure. Agreement (MVA) which, when completed, will spur connectivity and growth in this sub-region. The BBIN At Sub-Regional Level: Disenchanted with the MVA will complement the proposed BIMSTEC MVA, persistent Indo-Pakistan tensions undermining the which is expected to be concluded in the coming functioning of SAARC, India appears to have BIMSTECH summit in Nepal. The BIMSTEC MVA accorded due priority to the sub-regional cooperation, will have all multi-modal features connecting Sri which does not include Pakistan. Pakistan is not Lanka, which has so far been connected to the six willing to cooperate in the regional connectivity members of the grouping only through air or sea. The projects as it has refused to sign SAARC’s Motor other proposals under consideration include mega Vehicle Agreement and declined to give India land cross-border air and land connectivity projects, along passage from its territory to Afghanistan. SAARC with power and energy initiatives: proposals for seems to have uncertain future as India refused to Dhaka-Chennai-Colombo air connectivity, participate in the proposed 19th SAARC Summit in Chittagong-Kolkata-Colombo shipping connectivity, November, 2016 in Islamabad due to Pakistan’s Bangladesh-North Bengal rail link, Bangladesh-

32 World Focus March 2018 Bhutan internet cables through India, trade route At Bilateral Level, India has cultivated and connecting Nakugaon Land Port in Bangladesh to consistently promoted a robust development Gayleyphung in Bhutan via India. Besides, efforts are partnership with her neighbours since early 1950s, on implement the.The MoU for Indo-Bhutan- which is more pronounced now and is explained below: Bangladesh energy partnership is proposed to be Development Partnership with Neighbours: signed in presence of the prime ministers of the three South-South Cooperation and development countries, according to people aware of the matter. partnership with other developing countries have been The MoU between NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam the hallmark of India’s foreign policy since her Limited and Bangladesh Power Development Board emergence as an independent nation in 1947. India for the supply of 500 mw hydropower from the 900 launched ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic mw Upper Karnali Hydropower plant in Nepal was Cooperation) programme in 1964 as her flag ship signed during the visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina development partnership initiative. India’s small to India in April 2017. neighbours have been accorded priority in this development partnership. India’s total concessional At present there are two interconnections development finance reached $ 1.8 billion in 2015, through which 660 mw of power is transferred from compared to $ 1.4 billion in 2014. Out of this India India to Bangladesh. The state-run Indian firm plans channeled $ 106 million (6 percent of its concessional to set up a 1,320 mw coal-fired thermal power plant development finance) through multilateral at Rampal in Bangladesh and several private players organizations in 2015 and rest through bilateral are also setting up power stations in the neighbouring arrangement. India’s priority partner countries are country. India will construct a 135-km-long pipeline its neighbours in South Asia. Between 2009 and 2015, from Assam to supply oil to Bangladesh following an Bhutan received 61 percent of India’s bilateral agreement signed on Sunday after the Swaraj-Ali joint development co-operation, followed by Afghanistan consultative committee meeting. ONGC Videsh Ltd (9 percent), Sri Lanka (7 percent), Nepal (5 percent), has acquired two shallow water blocks in Bangladesh, Bangladesh (3 percent), Myanmar (2 percent) and SS-04 and SS-09, in a 50:50 consortium with Oil India the Maldives (2 percent) (OECD: 2017). Nearly 71 Limited, and is carrying out exploration activities in percent of India’s total external assistance is directed these blocks (Economic Times: 2017). India has also towards her neighbours. accorded due priority for the infrastructure development in her border areas particularly north- India has launched development partnership east region. Japan will also invest in the infrastructure with her neighbours like Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, development of this region as per the understanding Afghanistan and Maldives, which has been enhanced reached between India and Japan during Shinzo Abe and strengthened over the years. India has state visit to India in 2017. considerable potential in training, skill development, telecommunication, education, which are essential for Due to limited transport arrangements socio-economic development of the region. India has, connecting countries in South Asia, trade costs (or since 2002, invested more than $ 3billion in various transport costs) are typically high for traders in development projects in Afghanistan; announced $ 1 this region. India intends to reduce the cost of billion development package for Bangladesh in 2011; trading by directing aid towards improving regional and another $1 billion development package for Nepal transport connectivity, especially between north- during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit in August eastern states in India and landlocked countries 2014. This development partnership should take into like Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. Enhancing account the specific needs of the target country. connectivity among countries in South Asia fosters Besides various programmes of connectivity and regional growth and prosperity (Bhogal: 2017)). energy development, India initiated Small Hence, these connectivity initiatives are at the core Development Projects (SDP) scheme in Nepal in of India’s present policy in South Asia. This represents 2003. Till May 2015, over 476 projects have been India’s non-reciprocal approach to the shared implemented in all the 75 districts of Nepal. So far prosperity in the region. 243 SDPs have been completed and 233 are under

India’s Policy of Non-Reciprocity in South Asia: Unending Challenges 33 various stages of implementation in 75 districts of partnership with the Wetern countries, aid Nepal, with a total outlay of over Rs 550 crore. programme its benevolent aspects become clear. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have also benefitted from The Western Aid programme is characterized by- India;’s development partnership. In Afghanistan, 1. Conditional aid with condition such as India’s foreign aid activities are mainly focused on liberalization, democracy and Human rights in reconstruction and development. Various terms of ‘Washington Consensus’; and 2. Aid is infrastructure projects, including construction of the mainly directed to social sector, which does not Afghan Parliament, Salma dam, Zaranj-Delaram help in development and enhancing productive highway project (linking Delaram road in capacity of the recipients. In contrast, Indian aid Afghanistan to Iranian border Zaranj) have been is more liberal and targeted as it provides untied initiated by the Indian government in Afghanistan aid in the form of concessional grants and loans to with an intention of greater access to country’s her neighbours, targeted at infrastructure energy markets. Bhutan has been the largest development. India provides aid to her neighbours recipient of India’s development assistance with focus in sectors that hold mutual economic-strategic on hydro-electricity, infrastructure and human interest, such as transport, energy and democracy. resource development. In this manner, India acknowledges the In the middle of the first decade of 21st development needs of her neighbours, especially century, India emerged as a net donor country in terms smaller landlocked countries like Bhutan and Nepal. of net extra-development assistance advanced to Development cooperation is encouraged in areas developing and poor countries. India started Liners with vast potential such as hydropower electricity of Credit (LOC) Scheme in financial year 2003-04 in Bhutan, road and rail connectivity projects in as a soft loan scheme to fund the infrastructure Nepal. Indian aid programs also do not interfere development in recipient countries. Since 2003-04 till with recipient’s domestic policies and respect their the end of 2015, India has extended 100 lines of credits sovereignty. India’s aid strategy in South Asia rests to 64 countries in the world with total commitment of on tenets of common development, equality and $18641.00 million. South Asia remained the focus of mutual benefit. In addition, Indian aid projects India’s LOCs advancement as India committed $ provide autonomy to the recipients as these are 6576milliom to five South Asian countries- based on a demand-driven approach wherein aid- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and receiving countries identify priority sectors for Maldives. Because of political factors, India does not investment and development cooperation. For extend any LOC or development assistance to example, India’s SDPs in Nepal are community Pakistan. owned and operated. India’s aid strategy in South Asia is focused on enhancing the export potential In order to tone up the administrative of the recipients’ priority sectors by providing them mechanism of her development partnership, India has support in the form of technical knowledge, capital established a separate administrative body- resources, capacity building etc. (Bhogal: 2016). the Development Partnership Administration in 2012 Training and capacity building is the distinctive within the Ministry of External Affairs, which co- feature of India’s development partnership with ordinates India’s bilateral development co-operation. developing countries including those in South Asia. It manages grants and the Indian Technical & Economic Cooperation Programme. The Ministry of New Initiatives: Partnership with ‘Like Finance manages multilateral assistance and exercises Minded’ countries for South Asia- India has long administrative oversight over the concessional loans maintained that the involvement of extra-regional and lines of credit provided by the Exim Bank. actors in South Asia is detrimental to the peace and development of the region. However, under her Non-Reciprocal and Benevolent Aspects of ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, unveiled in 2014, India India’s Development Partnership in South has started reaching out to extra-regional actors to Asia: If we compare India’s development develop partnerships for the development of South

34 World Focus March 2018 Asia. This new strategy marks a departure from years, India’s South Asian policy seems to be faltering India’s earlier efforts to insulate South Asia as its as not only China has gained strategic depth in South exclusive sphere of influence and deny space to any Asia but anti-India posture in neighbouring countries extra-regional actors. Officially, these unprecedented has become more pronounced in recent years. There outreach efforts are implicitly referred to as a are various structural and situational challenges India partnership with “like-minded” countries. This is new faces in the region: element in India’s regional strategy. With the U.S., India now conducts close consultations on smaller 1. Unfavourable Structural Conditions for India- states such as Nepal, Bangladesh, or Sri Lanka. In Historical legacies of border conflict, ethnic and social 2014, India and Russia signed an unprecedented tensions and India’s size and position are the dominant agreement to cooperate on developing nuclear power structural handicaps working against success of in third countries, with a focus on Bangladesh and Sri India’s policy in South Asia. We have Madhesis in Lanka. In 2015, Tokyo and New Delhi developed a Nepal, Tamils in Sri Lanka, border and river water joint “Vision 2025” plan promising to “seek disputes with Bangladesh, which are left over by synergy…by closely coordinating, bilaterally and with history. In this respect, Indo-Pakistan relations need other partners, for better regional integration and no comment. India’s Look East policy has succeeded, improved connectivity,” especially in the Bay of because India does not have any bilateral issue with Bengal region. The Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, East Asian countries. What goes to India’s benefit in announced in 2016, further highlights India’s East Asian, China enjoys same benefits in South Asia. willingness to work with Japan to develop alternatives Wagner (2017) remarks, ‘India seems to be caught to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).Similarly, in a catch-22 in South Asia. On the one hand, the United Kingdom and India signed a statement of intent religious, linguistic, and ethnic ties bind India with the on ‘partnership for cooperation in third countries’ with region. On the other hand, those ties separate India a focus on development assistance in South Asia. from its neighbors with regard to nation-building. Such With Brussels, Paris, and Berlin, New Delhi has structural links, and their effects, are difficult to engaged in dialogues about maritime security and the address. Hence, India will hardly be able to overcome Indian Ocean region, and shared intelligence to bolster resentments in the neighboring countries and to regional counter-terrorism efforts. Finally, contrasting counter the advantages that China enjoys in many with its past reluctance to involve multilateral South Asia countries in politics, economics, and organizations in the region, India has enthusiastically security’. endorsed the Asian Development Bank’s South Asia Sub-regional Economic Cooperation (SASEC) A related point is that in South Asia, the operational program for 2016-25, focused on domestic politics of India’s neighbours like improving connectivity between the subcontinent and Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka or even in Maldives Southeast Asia (Xavier: 2017) These initiatives are and Bhutan has assumed bipolar orientations, in which at the nascent stage and need careful planning, one political formation is always opposed to Indian coordination and foresight to make them successful. development role, in the pretext of Indian hegemony This new strategy may be partly motivated to balance or interference in the internal affairs. India’s Chinese inroads in the region, but it is a pragmatic development partnership has become a political issue move in India’s South Asian strategy. It is a pragmatic in the domestic politics of these countries, which gives move and a new opportunity for India to reshape her rise to anti-India sentiments. In fact, India too has South Asian strategy. In fact, reverse to this erred in dealing with domestic issues of neighbouring pragmatism has been the real challenge for long time. countries. Since 1947, India has been dealing with If India has failed to resist Chinese inroads in South ruling groups and parties in her neighbouring countries Asia, it is better to involve other actors to bolster and has been ignoring to deal with neighbouring India’s strategic prospects in South Asia. ‘states’ and ‘governments’. India has failed to distinguish between ruling Parties and ‘states’ in South Unending Challenges: In spite of India’s non- Asia- Nepal (Nepali Congress), Bangladesh (Awami reciprocal benevolent moves in South Asia over the League). Bhutan, Maldives and Shri Lanka also fall

India’s Policy of Non-Reciprocity in South Asia: Unending Challenges 35 in that category with varying intensity. If India sheds motivated by her global strategic motives as well as off this political baggage in South Asia, this will the need to contain India in South Asia, is using this contribute to the success of Indian strategy. If we card in planned manner. It equally attracts India’s observe the foreign policy behaviour of leading nations neighbouring countries. it emerges that normative issues of democracy and human rights have been ideological cover to the real In recent years Chinese inroads have interests of nations. How China has successfully increased in South Asia. Over the past decade, China cultivated he r relations with Pakistan, Myanmar or has become a significant economic partner to many non-democratic African countries? Or how the countries throughout the region, forging particularly US has been closer to Pakistan in 1970s or with Iran strong ties with smaller states through trade, before the Islamic Revolution, and Saudi Arabia for diplomacy, aid, and investment. China has not many decades? Another factor which has greatly eclipsed India across South Asia, but it is catching hampered development of cordial relations with up in its trade and investment, and in some cases, neighbour countries has been the size, strength and its economic diplomacy has been accompanied by population of India which has given rise to suspicions expanded strategic cooperation with India’s in the minds of other countries. In short India’s efforts neighbors. Asian connectivity, largely through to develop friendly relations with her neighbours were its Silk Road “belt and road” vision, it can marshal greatly thwarted by internal and external pressures extensive resources on initiatives such as the Asian (Rajan: 1997). Perhaps India’s neighbours do not view Infrastructure Investment Bank that will likely partnership with India as a mutually beneficial venture outpace other financial sources. (Anderson an but as ‘geographical imperative’. In a Newsweek Ayres: 2015) (New York) Interview on December 7, 1986, President Ershad of Bangladesh remarked that The strategic partnership and ‘all weather friendship with India was a ‘geographical imperative’. friendship’ between India and China is well known. China has been instrumental in development of 2. Lack of Consensus on Core issues of Security nuclear and missile capability of Pakistan over the and Development- Perhaps, South Asia is the only years. In 2015, China has committed funds of nearly region in the world, which lacks any regional security US$ 46 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic architecture. Nor there is any attempt to evolve such Corridor project that would link western China to architecture because there is no consensus on the Gwadar port in Pakistan through a network of roads core issues of development and security among the and railways, passing through disputed Pak regional actors. Instead, we find that an architecture Occupied Kashmir area. Now China I persuading of insecurity and bilateral tensions emerging as a Afghanistan to join thi initiative, thus undermining lasting pattern in the region. While the perpetual India’s influence in Afghanistan. tensions between the two largest actors of the region- India and Pakistan are a given fact, the entry of China Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to has complicated the nature of tensions and their Bangladesh in 2016 was considered a “milestone” resolution. The external deep engagement of the as it was the first such visit in three decades. Both regional actors at the cost of intra-regional ties, is not countries have signed many high profile agreements. an exception but a norm in South Asia. What is of particular concern to India is that for the first time, Sino-Bangladeshi energy cooperation 3. China Factor- In past India’s neighbours have outstripped Indo-Bangladeshi energy cooperation. used China Card to balnce India in the region. During Xi’s visit, China signed off on loans worth $24 However, in last two decades, Neighbours’ China billion, leaving India behind with $2 billion LOC given Card against India has taken the shape of China’s to Bangladesh. China and Bangladesh agreed to Neighbours Card against India, because it is now elevate their relationship from a “comprehensive propelled by different drivers. Earlier neighbouring partnership of cooperation” to a ”strategic countries tried to balance India, but for China, this partnership.” Bangladesh is also backing China’s China Card was an adhoc opportunity. Now China, “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative, which will

36 World Focus March 2018 boost trade and economic growth in Bangladesh Available At: https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/ (Kashinath: 2016). This would open markets for economics-influence-china-and-india-south-asia China in western Asia, extending to Central Asia Bhogal, Preety (2016) India’s Foreign Aid to South and Europe. Recently, Maldives has signed free Asia. ORF online. Available At: http:// trade agreement with China in 2017, agreed to www.orfonline.org/research/indias-foreign-aid-to- participate in the China’s led One Belt One Road south-asia/Chaturvedi, Rajiv Ranjan (2015) India’s initiative; and has give contract for operating male Neighbourhood Policy Under Modi. FPRC Journal Airport to Chinese company few years back. In 2015(1), New Delhi. 2017, China has gained operational control of Economics Times (2017) India lines up projects to Humbantota port of Sri Lanka, which holds strengthen links with South, Southeast Asia, 24 strategic importance for India. October, 2017. Available At: https:// conomictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and- With the rise of Communist in Nepali politics, nation/india-lines-up-projects-to-strengthen-links- China has found favourable ground to consolidate her with-south-southeast-asia/articleshow/61191813.cms strategic partnership with Nepal. China and Nepal Helda, Heinanen (2006) Regional Integration and the signed an agreement whereby China started State: The Changing Nature of Sovereignty in construction of first ever railway line between Tibetan Southern Africa and Europe. Available At: capital Lhasa and Nepalese border town Khasa. This httpshelda.helsinki.fibitstreamhandle railway line is 770 Kms long and is likely to be 1013821770regional.pdfsequence=2 completed by the year 2020. During Nepali Prime Kashinath, Prarthana (2016) To Fend Off China, India Minister K P Shrama Oli’s visit to China in March Must Galvanize Ties With Bangladesh .Available At: 2016, both countries signed historic trade and transit https://thediplomat.com/2016/10/to-fend-off-china- treaty, as an alternative to similar treaty between India india-must-galvanize-ties-with-bangladesh/ and Nepal. China also extended $145 million OECD (2017) India’s Development Cooperation. assistance to Nepal for post-earthquake reconstruction Available At: http://www.oecd.org/india/indias- and upgradation of China-Nepal road links. Both development-co-operation.htm decided to conduct first ever joint military exercise. Rajan, M. S. (1997) Recent Essays on India’s Foreign Policy. Delhi : Kalinga Publications), pp. In nutshell, China’s strategic depth in South Asia has 131-149 . increased, which has potential to undermine India’s Robson, Peter (1968): Economic Integration in Africa. non-reciprocal partnership with her neighbours. George Allen & Unwin, London, pp.33-36. Saran, Shyam (2006) ‘’Does India have a No doubt, India has made persistent policy Neighbourhood Policy?” Indian Council of World interventions based on the principle of non-reciprocity Affairs Talk by Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, New to maintain good relations with her neighbouring Delhi. Available At: http://indembkwt.org/press/ countries and tried to play a leading role in the september9.htm development and stability of South Asia, but her The Hindu (2017) India Launches Satellite to help unending challenges like structural handicaps, lack South Asian Nations. The Hindu, 6 may 2017. of consensus on the core issues of peace and Wagner, Christian (2017) Role of India and China in development; and growing Chinese foot prints have South Asia. Asia-pacific Bulletin-389.Available At: made India’s task rather difficult. Thus, India needs https://www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/the-role- to rearticulate her policy beyond the principles of non- india-and-china-in-south-asia reciprocity and benevolence to overcome these World Bank (2006) South Asia: Growth and Regional challenges. Of course, non-reciprocity would be the Integration, Report No. 37858-SAS, Poverty bottom line of this re-articulation. Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, South Asia Region, World Bank, Dec.2006, Reference p.1. Anderson, Ashlyn and Alyssa Ayres (2015) Xavier, Constantino (2017) India’s ‘Like Minded’ Economic of Influence: China and India in South Asia. Partnership to Counter China in South Asia. Available At: https://casi.sas.upenn.edu/iit/constantinoxavier

India’s Policy of Non-Reciprocity in South Asia: Unending Challenges 37 Rise of Left Alliance in Nepal: India’s Search for Continuity Amidst Change Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta

The year 20171 has been historical for Nepal stands abolished but a multi-party parliamentary for the sole reason that it took a strong leap forward democracy is yet to consolidate. towards entrenching its hard-earned democracy. The said elections were held for all the three tiers of Economically Nepal stands a shattered government i.e. federal, provincial and local. It was country by now on account of several pitfalls. Last for the first time in the history of Nepal that all the three decades have been politically turbulent for Nepal elections were organised in the same calendar year which also witnessed a violent insurgency movement after the promulgation of the new constitution of for about ten years. The insurgency alongside the Nepal in September 2015. Nepal indeed has come a 2015 earthquakes is increasingly responsible for long way from quagmire of first conflict between breaking the backbone of its economy. Political monarchy and its supporters on the one hand and stability of course contributed towards policy paralysis pro-democracy forces on the other; second the and Nepal’s politics was neck-deep in power struggle prolonged struggle of the two successive constituent rather than being able and committed to plan its assemblies towards generating consensus over development and work on its plan subsequently. number of issues to redesign power arrangements in Consequently, Nepal is in dire need for employment Nepal by way of hammering out a constitution for for its people, health facilities, safe drinking water, itself; third on account of unstable coalition education, road networks and other basic amenities. governments which have been the norm since multi- According to government data, over 2 million Nepalis party democracy was established in 1990. The scale were working abroad in 2011, as they could not find 4 of victory that the Left Alliance has achieved is being employment at home. Therefore, one can only expected by most experts to bring political stability in imagine the kind of economic development that Nepal the otherwise politically volatile country thus far.2 badly needs to provide its citizens a decent life where However, such expectations are the consequences they are able to meet their daily needs. of long tumultuous Nepal which has led to a deep sense of frustration within the common man and the Nepal is a natural buffer between China and political leadership alike. Therefore, it is quite India. The present ruling Nepali Congress is premature to predict about the scale of stability in considered pro-India and the left alliance is seen closer Nepal in the aftermath of the New Government in to China. K.P Oli as leader of the left alliance is all accordance with the provisions of the New set to become the Prime Minister of Nepal. He will Constitution. be forced to be pragmatic in maintaining a geopolitical balance with both India and China. The simple reason Nepal has been shattered in the recent past is that Nepal cannot ignore India and engage with on account of natural and political earthquakes. The China at the cost of its relations with India which is natural earthquake jolted Nepal in April 2015 killing its natural ally. Therefore, diplomatically Nepal is again over 8000 people and displacing lakhs of others. in a complex situation and how it will adjust its Nearly 600,000 houses were damaged with schools relations with both its giants neighbour shall be and hospitals incurring massive damages. Nearly interesting to watch for journalists, academicians and 25,000 classrooms were reduced to rubble in the policy-analysts alike. Given the post-election political devastating earthquake.3 The political earthquake has scenario it makes it imperative to explore the been striking Nepal for over two to three decades subsequent development and analyse them in the making it politically volatile and unstable. Monarchy context of its impact on Indo-Nepal relations. This article is an attempt to understand as to whether

38 World Focus March 2018 winning of Nepal’s Left Alliance is India’s diplomatic Nepali Congress, which suffered a serious setback, failure or it has strengthened its policy of mutual non- received only 23 seats, under 14 percent of the total interference in internal affairs of its neighbours. available. Two Madhes-based parties, the Rashtriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJPN) and the Sanghiya Elections in Nepal5: An Overview Samajbadi Forum (SSF), combined to secure 21 seats; The current Legislature, i.e. Parliament’s mandate other fringe parties won the remaining five seats.9 was expiring on 21st January 2018, therefore by this The parallel elections of Nepal also include the time the elections were needed to be completed. Nepal elections for the proportional-representation (PR) was already late for the same as the Local and federal seats. In this election the voters indicate their support provincial elections have to be held latest by May for a party rather than a candidate and seats are 2017, but there were number of impending issues still distributed accordingly. Elections for the PR-seats existing like agreement on number of provinces and are organised through a closed-party list ballot system. their boundaries.6 Yet Nepal organised elections from Accordingly, CPN-UML and Nepali Congress were May through December 2017 in five separate stages almost even. UML secured 33.25 percent of votes, for all the three levels of government i.e. local, NC 32.78 percent, and CPN (Maoist Centre) 13.66 provincial, and national. The election witnessed percent. The two Madhes-based parties each secured shifting alliance between and among different political just under 5 percent. Only these five parties—the parties. Most important alliance was Nepal’s largest CPN-UML, NC, CPN (Maoist Centre), SSF, and communist parties, the Communist Party of Nepal RJPN won enough of the vote to secure seats under (Maoist Centre) and the Communist Party of Nepal the PR category.10 Out of 275 seats in the House of (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML). The former Representatives, the left alliance holds 174 (121 for being led by Pushp Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) and the CPN-UML, and 53 for Maoists), the NC 63, the the latter by K.P. Sharma Oli. Both these parties had RJPN 17, and the SSF 16.11 been bitter rivals, and they announced plans to run together for the provincial and national polls and As far as the governments in seven provinces merged into a single, unified party following the are concerned, the left alliance will form a government elections. Unity enabled them to win a majority and in six provinces out of seven. Province No.2, bordering turn the table on Nepali Congress erstwhile dominant India, is the only exception in which a non-left political party of Nepal. The leaders of Left Alliance government has become a possibility. As Nepal’s in Nepal claimed to bring ‘prosperity through stability’ upper house, the National Assembly, will see most during their election campaign.7 seats elected by the provinces, the election results will effectively have the left alliance control of both The Left Alliance came out victorious in the houses of the Nepali Federal Parliament because in elections at all three levels of government. In the out of seven provinces left-alliance as majority in six. national parliament, the Left Alliance has achieved a Nepal’s first successful local elections were majority which is little short of the two-thirds majority concluded in September 2017. Nepalis elected over needed to make any changes to the Nepal’s 35,000 representatives to run 753 local governments. Constitution. Nepali Congress, the ruling party of CPN-UML won control of 296 out of total 753 local Nepal suffered serious reverses and secured less than bodies, and CPN (Maoist Centre) won another 106 a quarter of seats in parliament.8 The Left Alliance in these local level elections. Of the 35,000 elected secured overwhelming majorities in both the federal representatives nearly 14,000 of them are women bicameral legislature (the House of Representatives which have changed their numerical presence in local and National Assembly) and the provincial assemblies. bodies. All told, the parties that later formed the left- According to experts and analysts, the alliance is also alliance won control for 402 local bodies, which is a likely to form governments in six out of seven clear majority. The Nepali Congress (NC) that provinces. The Left Alliance combined to secure 70 emerged as the largest party after the elections held percent of the first-past-the-post seats. Out of 165 in 2013 fell to the second largest party in the local- total FPTP constituencies, CPN-UML won 80 seats; level polls. In the latest elections, there were no the CPN (Maoist Centre) won 36 seats. The centrist considerable changes in these voting patterns.12 The

Rise of Left Alliance in Nepal: India’s Search for Continuity Amidst Change 39 majority of these newly elected representatives do but restraints, constraints and patience is needed at not have previous experience in government. Many all the levels to give Nepal’s polity a gradual stability have backgrounds in the private sector, including as with consequent development. real estate agents, contractors, and middlemen with known track records of voraciously serving their own Secondly, it is also important to maintain private interests and their patrons in political parties.13 perspective and situate elections in the larger agenda How they will govern in the public interest should be of governance reform in Nepal. We must take fresh of greater concern than their background. It becomes account of both the distribution of power and the obvious from the personal profile of these elected tension between institutions of representation and representatives that given their ignorance about institutions of restraint in conditioning state and non- process of governance on the one hand and their state actions toward more accountability, economic well-being on the other will be enough to transparency, and justice. The political leadership of create a mess. This may contribute towards political Nepal has a daunting task to this effect.Thirdly, the instability at the local level. Nepal suffered badly on tortuous transition toward democratic consolidation account of Maoist insurgency during 1996-2006 and in a federal structure and the building up of new it gripped the countryside badly. Consequently, the institutions must be understood as deep deficits that local elections were called off in 2002 amid security need to be addressed in both politics as well as the concerns and most of the villages were being rule of law. Political leadership will have to develop a administered by centrally appointed bureaucrats. Even high level of political maturity and raise themselves during the days of drafting the Constitution for Nepal over power-politics to execute this onerous task. the Constituent Assembly put off the local bodies elections.14 Accordingly, the local bodies had a long Elections to the National Assembly (Upper spell of absence of governance which again will House) of the Federal Parliament were scheduled to amount to incapacity. The new found power may take place on February 8, 2018. This was decided reach to the head of these representative and their after President Bidya Devi Bhandari approved the actions may be detrimental to their locality in National Assembly Act to pave the way for holding particular and the polity of Nepal in general. the elections. The National Assembly will have a total of 59 Members. Of these 56 will be elected by an However, the successful completion of electoral college comprising assembly members of election will ensure for Nepal a new political course. the seven provinces and chiefs and deputy chiefs of By February of 2018, one federal government, seven municipalities and rural municipalities. Rest of the provincial governments, and 753 municipal three will be nominated by the President as per the governments, will be in place with co-equal standing recommendation of the government.17 Given the under the new Constitution. The anxieties of those majority of left-alliance at most levels of the electoral- who stand to lose power and the eagerness of those college by all possibility the left-alliance will have with newfound power must be tempered by the majority in the National Assembly, the Upper House existential challenges that lie immediately ahead of of Nepal Parliament as well. The results of the same the new republic under the new Constitution15: First, stands submitted by the Election Commission of Nepal newly elected leadership will have to focus on to President of Nepal on February 14, 2018 in which accommodating the three nested power centres and the results of Province No.4 has been announced their distinct preferences, needs, and interests. and four seats have gone to left alliance and two Working out the jurisdiction, authority, and resources seats to Nepali Congress. for each will require time as well as a nuanced approach—deploying peaceful negotiation, dignified Elections in Nepal: Indo-China Concerns compromise, and lawful challenge in court.16 Prima Elections in Nepal were being monitored closely by facie it seems that Nepal’s political leadership is not both the South Asian rivals India and China. Main yet mature to that extent to give a positive direction concern was related to the curiosity as to who will to these future challenges. Aspirations and form the government: the left alliance of the expectations of both the leaders and the lead are high Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)

40 World Focus March 2018 and CPN (Maoist Centre) or the democratic block time. India will continue to be at a loss as it has bad led by the centrist Nepali Congress (NC) party. Hence impression of talking more and delivering less on the both India and China were concerned about the results ground. China has an excellent record of executing of the election as both have been competing covertly most and that too before time. China also has and overtly to curve out a larger share of influence advantage in terms of its deep pocket compare to within Nepal. There are several reasons behind their India. completion and wish to enlarge their influence in Nepal. Secondly, the blockade along Indo-Nepal border, during the crisis that occurred on account of Though the winning coalition of Nepal has Madhesi protest against September 2015 Nepal’s been harping that it would follow a balanced foreign Constitution, angered a large part of the Nepalese policy, yet the indications are not in that direction. population, allowing China to step in as an alternative Khadga Prasad (KP) Sharma Oli has a strange way to India by providing internet access as well as of demonstrating this. Oli, visited the border with alternative trade routes through which goods and other China in Rasuwagadhi last week and declared that relevant services were supplied to Nepal. There is Rasuwagadhi-Kerung border point, the only trade and no doubt that transiting goods and services through transit point between Nepal and China, would be China is costlier than through India for Nepal, yet upgraded to international standards.18 Therefore, even Nepal wants to open a viable route through China to before taking the oath of office of Prime Minister Oli reduce its over-dependence on India. This will have has demonstrated his allegiance and tilt towards China. long-term implications for India in terms of mitigating China’s major security interests in Nepal include its its leverage over Nepal, thereby undermining its border with the Tibet autonomous region, a potential influence over Nepal. This election results have made hotbed of domestic instability over questions of it more obvious that India is seriously bound to lose sovereignty to Tibetans. China also has been pursuing on several counts with a pro-China government a policy of encirclement of India by cultivating India’s coming into existence in Nepal. Thirdly, Nepal’s neighbours. China has been successful in its economy has been ailing since the earthquake of 2015 endeavours one after the other. First, through as its reliance on aid and remittances remains at an interference in internal political affairs of these all-time high. China’s attraction under such countries and making all efforts to install either a left circumstances is quite natural. China has pledged $8.3 or a pro-left government which has greater sense of billion to build roads and hydropower plants, even as allegiance towards China. Secondly, investing in these Indian commitments remain in the realm of $317 countries in building their infrastructure for which million.19 It makes it obvious that China has a fat China is economically competent. Nepal has been no purse over India and that too with an added advantage exception to this trap of China’s foreign policy choice. of a pro-China government in the seat of authority in However, this has serious strategic implications for Nepal. China thus has all reasons to be happy about India. the recent election results. India has to be worried about the same though India has no choice but to Firstly, by all probabilities the new government keep repeating the oft-quoted phrase that we have that has come to power in Nepal is going to sustain enough space in the South Asian region to keep for its full term of five years as it is an alliance on the operating and engaging with our neighbours alongside same side of ideological spectrum and with a China. Fourthly, as part of its “One Belt, One Road” comfortable majority. Nepal has largely been initiative China is looking into the possibility of politically unstable on account of lack of majority in connecting Kathmandu to Lhasa in Tibet via railways the past. This has created problems for both India at an estimated cost of $8 billion. China’s activities and China so far as their developmental works in have been steadily expanding in Nepal after its support Nepal are concerned. A politically stable government for OBOR materialized. This development took place in Nepal would facilitate both the countries towards in spite of India’s stiff resistance to OBOR.20 Given conducting a long-term sustained diplomacy to bag the fact that India is deadly opposed to China’s OBOR, developmental projects and execute the same in due it would be tremendous loss to India that its trusted

Rise of Left Alliance in Nepal: India’s Search for Continuity Amidst Change 41 neighbours are falling to China’s project one after time.23 Therefore, it makes it obvious that given a the other. It is indeed a serous policy-failure on part left dispensation in Nepal for next five years with a of India that it has failed to cajole its neighbours to pro-China profile, Nepal is bound to have greater maintain their loyalty towards India. India is bound to integration and engagement with China and India is loose tremendously if its neighbours are integrated bound to lose till the new political dispensation lasts. more to China than India. The loss will be strategic which would further undermine its security. India’s Responses: Search for Continuity Amidst Change Fifthly, the Deuba government had decided India’s responses to Nepal and its demands were to cancel a major $2.5 billion hydroelectric project given a strong boost when Narendra Modi took the awarded to Chinese state company China Gezhouba reins in his hands as Prime Minister of India. His Group in November 2017 much to the annoyance of proactive outreach, however, suffered a setback first Chinese political leadership. The new Oli government due to the Madhesi crisis, and second due to Oli’s by all means will reverse the decision. He earlier also allegations that India was responsible for triggering warned, “The issue here is about foreign investment and engineering the downfall of his government. India and such investment and such decisions cannot be seems to have made no efforts to cement the cracking taken on a whim.”21 Once again India which has ties with Nepal. Moreover it was too busy in the then enough enterprising experience and expertise in on-going elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh hydroelectricity will lose a project to China with the in India. Gujarat being the home-state of Prime advent of the new government in Nepal and the same Minister Narendra Modi, the entire political leadership would be imitated in other areas as well.Sixthly, China was busy in the management of Gujarat and was left has donated over 32,000 solar power generating with hardly any time and spirit to manage the elections systems to Nepal to enhance its domestic capacity in Nepal. Therefore, Modi may have managed to and to provide electricity to communities that have minimise his loss in Gujarat but failed completely to been without power since the 2015 earthquake. The manage the same in Nepal. It cannot even be said donated items included 32,000 sets of household solar that India mismanaged its relations with Nepal or power generation systems and 325 sets of solar power elections in Nepal; rather India and Indian leadership generation systems.22 India too has been working hard completely ignored the mega-event taking place in and expanding its expertise in solar power generation Nepal, which is right under its nose. since last one decade. Indian business communities could have opportunities in Nepal on this count. India thus, has paid the price for the same However, their prospects would be lessened or may with one of its all-time failure of highest order and be diminished to zero with a left pro-China government allowing China to step-in in the vacuum created on in Nepal and China taking lead in this area too. the turf left by India. China was pro-active since the pre-election days and was able to achieve notable Last but more important is that China has diplomatic success by helping the left alliance win been investing heavily in Nepal as it seeks to expand elections in Nepal. China undoubtedly has caused an its influence in the land-locked country which is irreparable loss to India which cannot be easily heavily dependent on supplies of essential goods from replenished. India thus has suffered diplomatic failure India. Oli during his brief stint in power in 2015-16 in Nepal because of taking things lightly and ignoring signed the Transit Transport Agreement (TTA) with the same. It is indeed a historical foreign policy blunder China to improve the connectivity between Nepal and on part of India.Winning of Left Alliance in Nepal Tibet in a bid to end decades-old dependency on India certainly being not a welcome sign for India under for daily supplies. China in a strategic move agreed any circumstances will have tremendous implications to extend the train link in Tibet to Nepal to improve in future on Indo-Nepal relations. One may even go the connectivity by road and rail. China has also been to the extent of saying that with this, Indo-Nepal instrumental towards addressing environmental relations has entered into a new phase. Nepali problems and climate change, which will benefit Congress (NC) which is considered to be a pro-Indian Nepali people from the perspective of health and party stands routed in the elections with almost blunted

42 World Focus March 2018 teeth in Nepal politics will be of no help to India. The political leadership also understands that the links with Indian Ministry of External Affairs had welcomed India are natural and are rooted in history, culture the outcome of Nepali elections as it has no choice and geography which cannot be severed so easily. but to do so as diplomatic etiquette. In its official India may be apprehensive about Oli’s Nepal using statement, it said: China card against India but at the same time India We congratulate the government and the people should know that all governments in Nepal have been of Nepal. India has age old unique, time tested doing the same so far. Therefore, India must not be ties of friendship with the country. We look wary of Nepal’s new found friend in India’s forward to working with the next democratically competitor in the region, rather adopt an aggressive elected government in Nepal to advance our close Nepal policy in which it must have devoted officials and multifaceted partnership across all sectors working round the clock to enhance engagement at and to support Nepal in its pursuit of peace, all levels with Nepal. stability, economic prosperity and all round development.24 Nepal’s would be Prime Minister after the election results made a remark that his party was Indian External Affairs Minister Ms. Susma eager to work in collaboration with neighbouring Swaraj also visited Nepal marking the beginning of countries and would forge a partnership with India to an engagement with the CPN-UML leader and Prime move towards the path of economic prosperity.26 As Minister-elect K P Sharma Oli. She met almost all discussed above Nepal is in serious need for economic the cross-section of political leadership of Nepal to development with varied requirements. India thus need avoid embarrassment. Her visit also coincided with to explore its complementarity with Nepal in the the announcement of Rs. 650 crore for Nepal in the changing world and circumstances and try forging Union Budget of India.25 The visit was indeed a an alliance for the same. Leaving the Nepal’s turf damage control exercise on part of Indian political wide open for China will be another policy blunder dispensation.High level visits at bilateral level, on part of India. India need to think positively that undoubtedly carry loads of political significance. with a new political dispensation in Nepal, the country Indian Prime Minister has rightly realised that Oli is has acquired a new leverage where it can make India all set to become the Prime Minister of Nepal and to work hard to deliver fast and concretely on the hence must be kept in good humour. A good relation ground, rather than talk rhetoric without matching the with Oli will also provide an opportunity to Modi to same on the ground. Nepal no doubt has acquired a visit Nepal for the third time to re-establish his lost new leverage which it will use against India in ground in terms of allegations that he was responsible furtherance of its national interests. Yet it needs to towards bringing down of earlier Oli’s government in use it cautiously and judiciously without annoying the Nepal. It will also help India entrench its sphere of other and maintaining the same in the long run. Only influence in Nepal. India though late but has started then it would be effective and Nepal’s diplomatic its endeavours to cultivate positive relations with the success. Nepal under Oli will have to strike a delicate new Government of Nepal as an effort to keep balance between his two giant neighbours India and continuity in its Nepal policy amidst change in Nepal. China. Oli will have to adjust his image between anti- India and pro-China stand. Oli is not the sole political Nepal’s New Leverage actor in Nepal and India too has its clout within Nepali Nepal with the announcement of election results and leadership though outside power. Nepal needs to take winning of Left Alliance has acquired greater room care of the same and make efforts not to earn the for manoeuvrability now between China and India. wrath of them. Nepal’s leverage must not turn out to Nepal knows it well that India will try to prevent Nepal be a battle-turf for the two big competitors of the from developing closer links with China and could region i.e. China and India. thus blackmail India to serve its national interests. India therefore, must not prevent Nepal from Conclusion: developing closer links with China so long as Nepal India must understand that Nepal is geo-strategically is able to and is protecting India’s interests. Nepali and traditionally too important for it. Hence, India

Rise of Left Alliance in Nepal: India’s Search for Continuity Amidst Change 43 cannot effort to lose Nepal to China. India thus will diplomatic failure which is on account of its own folly. have to deal with Nepal no matter the kind of political However, it need to realise that all is not lost and set up that exists there. Hopefully Nepal after the must work hard to compensate the diplomatic loss restoration of democracy in real sense of the term that it has caused to itself. Therefore, by all means will be able to mitigate the partisan politics both within India will have to accept the mandate of the Nepalese and without and focus on development as there is no people and deal with the left leadership from here major political agenda for parties than the development and now. of Nepal and its people. Nepal may finally embark on a journey of peace and economic development. Footnotes Nepal requires stability, good governance and 1 Year 2074 in the lunar calendar. 2 Nepal adopted a multi-party parliamentary democracy in 1990. However, economic development all in one go. Onus lies on all early all parliaments were dissolved before they completed their five-year Nepal as to how it uses both its giant neighbours term. This led to political instability in Nepal. The parliamentary system adopted after 1990 also reported number of anomalies and aberrations like reaping maximum benefit from both in furtherance corruption, and horse-trading. In 1999 the parliamentary elections were held of its national interests. for the last time which was later dissolved in 2001 and a state of emergency was declared. Nepal underwent a long spell of absence of any elected body which sabotaged its governance system. The first Constituent Assembly The contrary views are already being was elected in 2008 after a peace deal was struck with Maoists in 2006. First advanced that Nepal’s political instability is far from CA could not complete the task of Constitution writing so again it was elected in 2013 which subsequently promulgated its Constitution in over. The instability and lack of ownership of the September 2015. Both the CA included more than 30 parties, which was a Constitution is largely due to the denial of space to main cause of government instability. traditional political forces, a factor that external actors 3 PTI, “China donates over 32,000 solar power generators to Nepal”,Indian Express, January 22, 2018. including India refuse to acknowledge. During the 4 Amal Dev Bhattarai, “What Caused the Left Alliance’s Landslide Victory past 12 years, India and other external actors aligned in Nepal?”, December 19, 2017, The Diplomat, www.thediplomat.com 5 There are three types of elections in Nepal as per the newly promulgated with forces that raised arms against the state to push constitution. They are elections to the Federal Parliament, elections to the for a radical change in politics in preference to an State assemblies and elections to the local government. Two electoral evolutionary process accepted in other democracies. systems are used: parallel voting for House of Representatives and Provincial Assemblies and first past the post is used for local elections. Nepal’s new political dispensation thus need to be 6 Nepal Times, Editorial, January 21, 2018, www.nepaltimes.com magnanimous enough to appreciate the demands 7 Peter Gill, “The Rise of Nepal’s Left Alliance”, January 29, 2018, The Diplomat, www.thediplomat.com being articulated by Madhesis and such forces for 8 Nepali Congress, the country’s oldest political party and one that favours their due rehabilitation by way of making adequate close ties with India had won 105 out of 240 directly elected seats in the Constituent Assembly elections of 2013. The CPN-UML came second with arrangements in the Constitution as they are their 91 seats and UCPN-Maoists had only 26 seats then which was dominant own citizens, though of different origin. Fact remains party in the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections. See Gardiner Harris, that they are by now completely assimilated in Nepali “Election Results in Nepal Signal a Political Right Turn”, November 25, 2013, The New York Times, www.nytimes.com population and are very much like indigenous 9 Idbi., no.4. communities. Such an act will certainly bring greater 10 Idbi., no.4. 11 Idbi., no.4. political cohesion within Nepal’s polity and would also 12 Idbi., no.4. make its federal structure increasingly meaningful. 13 George Varughese, “Nepal Embarks on New Political Course”, November 29, 2017, Nepal Times. 14 Peter Gill, “Nepal: Elections at the Epicenter”, May 19, 2017, The The massive victory of left-alliance in Nepal Diplomat, www.thediplomat.com may sound like waning of the influence of traditional 15 Idbi., no.13. 16 Idbi., no.13. forces. However, the rise of communists is only 17 “Nepal to Hold National Assembly Elections on Feb 8”, January 06, natural and not phenomenal something that left force 2018, www.theshillongtimes.com in Nepal need to know and understand. Their political 18 Harsh V Pant, “China’s Moment in Nepal: Implications for India”, December 27, 2017, The Diplomat, www.thediplomat.com future would stabilise only when they are able to 19 Idbi., no.18. perform and stand on the aspirations of voters. 20 Idbi., no.18. 21 Idbi., no.18. Accordingly, Nepal’s new political need to 22 Idbi., no.3. comprehend the complex challenges at local, regional 23 Idbi., no.3. 24 As quoted in Harsh V Pant, Idbi., no.18. and international level and formulate adequate and 25 Kallol Bhattacherjee, “India will work with Oli government, says Sushma”, apt responses to meet and mitigate those challenges The Hindu, February 02, 2018. on the ground. India undoubtedly has suffered a 26 PTI, “In a bid to mend ties, Sushma Swaraj assures Nepal support for political stability”, February 02, 2018, www.theindianexpress.com

44 World Focus March 2018 India’s Neighbourhood Policy towards Bangladesh with special reference to Look East Policy and North East India Dr. Dona Ganguly

The art of conducting the foreign affairs of a South Asian neighbours reflect the same clichéd country lies in securing the national interest of attitude until the recent times. Currently a the country or if put in simple words it is the completely different approach is witnessed in method of investigating what is most advantageous India’s policies towards her immediate neighbours to the country in the long run. However when the in South Asia; of course the political equations country has to formulate its policies towards its with the state of Pakistan remains the same. In immediate neighbours, it is often seen that the the presence of the security personnel at the concern for the border security is prioritized over borders, there has been the spree of opening up all other considerations. The effect of the same is the borders to promote trade, investment and better realized in increased restrictions and regulations connectivity- the three pillars of the contemporary at the borders in order to ensure a water-tight Indian foreign policy approach. It is in this context security structure. India is also not an exception. the present article seeks to study the changing A detailed analysis of India’s policy towards her facades of Indo-Bangladesh relations with a South Asian neighbours reflects the same clichéd special emphasis on India’s Look East Policy. attitude until the recent times. Currently a completely different approach is witnessed in Indo-Bangladesh Relations India’s policies towards her immediate neighbours The India- Bangladesh relations further receded back in South Asia; of course the political equation when military ruled the country, although indirectly with the state of Pakistan remains the same. In under the garb of a caretaker government, from the presence of the security personnel at the 2006 to 2008. The landslide victory of the coalition borders, there has been the spree of opening up party led by Awami League in the general elections the borders to promote trade, investment and of 2008 opened a new chapter in Indo-Bangladesh better connectivity- the three pillars of the relations. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, unlike her contemporary Indian foreign policy approach. It predecessors, quickly adopted an India positive is in this context the present article seeks to study approach. After assuming office, a year later, Sheikh the changing facades of Indo-Bangladesh Hasina went to New Delhi in January 2010 to relations with a special emphasis on India’s Look meet her Indian counterpart. At this summit East Policy. meeting they agreed to a forward looking transformative agenda in order to build a forward- The art of conducting the foreign affairs looking irreversible cooperative relationship of a country lies in securing the national interest between the two neighbours. In September 2011, of the country or if put in simple words it is the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh paid a method of investigating what is most advantageous return visit to Dhaka to carry forward the spree to the country in the long run. However when the of positive transformation initiated in 2010. The country has to formulate its policies towards its positive achievements of these two high level visits immediate neighbours, it is often seen that the impacting the various aspects of the bilateral ties concern for the border security is prioritized over between the two countries have been briefly all other considerations. The effect of the same is enumerated as under: 1 realized in increased restrictions and regulations at the borders in order to ensure a water-tight Political Cooperation-Both the Prime Ministers security structure. India is also not an exception. agreed on a vision for the future in the pursuit of the A detailed analysis of India’s policy towards her common good - bilaterally, regionally and globally. In India’s Neighbourhood Policy towards Bangladesh with special reference to Look East Policy and North East India 45 this context, they recognized that peace and stability significantly positive impact on the lives of the people in the region is necessary for development and well- of Angarpota-Dahagram. being of the people of their respective countries. Connectivity And Communication–There has been The two Prime Ministers agreed to put in significant achievements in the field of connectivity place a comprehensive framework of cooperation for and communication. India has allowed the movement development between the two countries, of fertilizers from Bangladesh to Nepal by rail route encapsulating their mutually shared vision for the of Rohanpur -Singabad (Malda, West Bengal). They future, which would include cooperation in water also agreed to re-establish rail connections between resources, power, transportation and connectivity, Chilahati-Haldibari and Kulaura-Mahishashan in the tourism and education; strengthening of diplomatic spirit of encouraging revival of old linkages and and consular presence in each other’s countries; transport routes between the two countries. The commitment to democracy, pluralism and rule of law; starting of “Maitree Express” between Kolkata and and the regular holding of institutional mechanisms Dhaka is another milestone. Moreover, the US$ 1 for promoting bilateral relations. Security Cooperation billion Line of Credit extended by India would -Both Prime Ministers condemned terrorism in all its significantly enhance infrastructure and capacities in forms and manifestations and reiterated the assurance Bangladesh like infrastructure projects such as that the territory of either would not be allowed for Khulna-Mongla rail line and rail bridges over Titas activities inimical to the other and resolved not to allow and Bhairab rivers for strengthening Bangladesh their respective territory to be used for training, Railways; purchase of buses for Dhaka city public sanctuary and other operations by domestic or foreign transportation and dredgers for capital and terrorist/militant and insurgent organizations and their maintenance dredging of Bangladesh rivers. operatives. The two Prime Ministers underscored the need to conclude an Extradition Treaty between the Water Disputes -The Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), two countries expeditiously to complete the legal Secretary and technical level meetings are discussing framework for bilateral security cooperation. The various aspects relating to sharing of waters of the Agreement on Mutual Legal Assistance on Criminal Teesta, Manu, Muhuri, Khowai, Gumti, Dharla and Matters, Agreement on the Transfer of Sentenced Dudhkumar rivers. Persons and Agreement on Combating International Terrorism, Organised Crime and Illicit Drug Energy Cooperation - The Prime Minister of India Trafficking, signed in January 2010, are now in force reiterated the assurance that India would not take following their ratification. steps on the Tipaimukh project that would adversely impact Bangladesh. The Prime Minister of India Territorial and Maritime Disputes - Both Prime agreed to supply to Bangladesh 250 MW electricity Ministers agreed to comprehensively address all from its grid. outstanding land boundary issues keeping in view the spirit of the 1974 Land Boundary Agreement. In this Economic Cooperation- Prime Minister Dr. context, the Prime Ministers expressed deep Manmohan Singh announced the decision of the satisfaction at the conclusion of the Protocol to the Government of India to remove all forty six textile 1974 Land Boundary Agreement which paves the lines which are of interest to Bangladesh from India’s way for settlement of the long pending land boundary Negative List for LDCs under the provisions of issues including the undemarcated areas, territories SAFTA, thereby reducing the applicable duty rate to under adverse possession and exchange of enclaves. zero with immediate effect. The two Prime Ministers Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina expressed deep welcomed the opening of Banglabandha-Fulbari Land appreciation of the Government of India for facilitating Port for bilateral trade between Bangladesh and India 24-hour unfettered access to Bangladesh nationals and the inauguration of the border haat in Baliamari through the Tin Bigha Corridor. She noted that the (Kurigram)-Kalaichar (West Garo Hills) and the fulfillment of the long pending promise would have a proposed inauguration in Balat (East Khasi Hills)- Dalora (Sunamganj) as a fulfillment of the long

46 World Focus March 2018 standing demand of the local people of the area. The between New Delhi and Dhaka so that India’s Look resulting economic activity would contribute to the East Policy could take a concrete shape. economic upliftment of the people of the area surrounding the border haats. Expanding significance of Bangladesh in Look East Policy Cultural Cooperation- In order to consolidate people- The Look East policy was evolved as a tool for greater to-people connectivity, both the Prime Ministers agreed economic engagement with India’s eastern to promote and support scholarship programmes, joint neighbours, and forging strategic partnerships and research projects and exchange of scientific security cooperation with the countries of Southeast personnel. The joint celebration to commemorate the Asia and Far East in 1990 by the former Prime 150th birth anniversary of Rabindranath Tagore Minister P.V. Narsimha Rao. In its initial phase Look enthused the people on both sides to explore the East only concentrated on confidence building common cultural heritage and linkages and had measures with the discomfited Southeast Asian promoted exchanges not only among Tagore experts, neighbours. However since early 2000s a but also a whole range of artists, singers, dancers, paradigmatic shift resulted along with the Vajpayee dramatists, poets, writers, actors, etc. which had led government’s extended neighbourhood policy. The to greater understanding among the two sides. policy aimed at two objectives. First, to establish a Recognizing the value of television channels as a robust trade, economic and investment relationship means to promote cultural exchange and dissemination with the lucrative Southeast Asian markets by of information, the two Prime Ministers welcomed establishing a cost-effective, comprehensive the signing of MoU on Mutual Broadcast of Television connectivity network of road, railways, airways, transit Programmes between Doordarshan and Bangladesh and transhipment through the country’s landlocked Television. troubled periphery of the North East, the region which happens to be ethno-culturally linked to the Southeast Regional Cooperation- Both Prime Ministers Asian region particularly to the state of Myanmar . underscored the role of SAARC in promoting regional Second, it was also aimed at eliminating the cooperation. Both leaders agreed to work together in insurgency problem, which has plagued the making SAARC a purposeful organization oriented Northeastern region since the dawn of independence, towards implementation, which can revitalize the by way of economic development feasible only region through positive measures, concerted action through the opening up of the region to the Southeast and mutually reinforcing cooperation. Both leaders Asian markets. welcomed the various steps taken to strengthen regional cooperation under BIMSTEC. In this context, Consequently, India’s Look East agenda Bangladesh also requested India to support its began to put emphasis on developing the infrastructure aspiration to host the BIMSTEC Secretariat in Dhaka. of the region by widening the roads, expanding air connectivity, extending railway networks, opening new Notwithstanding the fact that some issues and reactivating dormant trade routes, as well as still remain unresolved between the two countries, facilitating border trade and transit points. The policy the bilateral relationship between India and makers however, failed to take into account of the Bangladesh began to proceed towards mutual most significant aspect of the geographical locale of understanding and cooperation since Sheikh Hasina the region, i.e. the Chicken Neck/Siliguri Corridor, has assumed power. It is important to note here that, a narrow strip of land, which acts as a singular in reality, India’s generous approach towards connectivity link between the Northeastern region and Bangladesh since last few years is not the result of the mainland India and sandwiched between the pro-Indian regime change in Dhaka. The series Bangladesh and Nepal on either sides. Despite of of high level diplomatic visits and host of bilateral envisioning promising projects on connectivity agreements spanning over political, security, energy between India and Southeast Asia via the Northeast and specifically connectivity issues have been Corridor, Bangladesh figured nowhere in the Look engaged to increase the confidence building measures East initiative at least till 2005. The event that triggered

India’s Neighbourhood Policy towards Bangladesh with special reference to Look East Policy and North East India 47 the consideration of Bangladesh as an indispensable existing Bheramara-Bahrampur inter-connection. The component of the Look East was the denial of Dhaka consensus reached on the proposed additional to the Indian proposal of using the Bangladeshi interconnection between Bornagar (Assam, India), territory for the India-Myanmar-Bangladesh gas Parbatipur (Bangladesh), Katihar (Bihar, India) for pipeline project, as already mentioned above. power evacuation facilities from which Bangladesh can draw 1000 MW of power from Assam-Bihar It is in this context that connectivity and transmission through Bangladesh with suitable tapping economic integration with Bangladesh becomes points at Parbatipur (Bangladesh). Discussions are important. Moreover the cost of transit and also going on immediate conclusions of negotiations transhipment is likely to reduce immensely if on supply of R-LNG to possible demand centres in Bangladesh can be utilized as an exit corridor for the Jessore- Khulna region; on possibility of gas grid Northeast , heading towards Southeast Asia. Taking interconnectivity between India and Jhenaidah- this idea forward, the Modi government has decided Khulna pipeline in Bangladesh; on setting up an LPG to focus more on improving its relation with ASEAN import terminal by IOCL at Kutubdia and build an and the East Asian countries by keeping Bangladesh- LPG pipeline that will serve the needs of Bangladesh Northeast corridor as the pivot of the Act East policy, as well as the Northeastern Region of India. the rechristened form of the Look East policy. It is also a part of India’s current approach towards its The signing of an MOU between the neighbourhood encapsulated in the Modi Geological Survey of India and the Geological Survey Government’s Neighbourhood First policy. This of Bangladesh in the field of earth sciences was seen policy is focussed on greater connectivity, stronger as a positive step in cooperation in this field. Besides cooperation and broader contacts, and India’s this, steady progress is also witnessed between approach is consultative, non-reciprocal, and outcome Numaligarh Refinery Ltd (NRL) and Bangladesh oriented. The high priority attached to the relations Petroleum Corporation (BPC) towards construction with the neighbours was evident from the very first of the Indo-Bangla Friendship Pipeline from Siliguri day of the Modi Government, when leaders of the to Parbatipur for supply of HSD to Bangladesh. Apart neighbouring countries were invited to the swearing- from cooperation in the energy sector, in recent years in ceremony of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. the trade figures have been steadily increasing from The mainstay of the Neighbourhood first strategy is $1 billion in 2002, to over $6 billion now. The newly the due recognition of the stability of the restored railway link between Radhikapur (India) and democratically elected governments in the Birol (Bangladesh) is expected to facilitate cargo neighbourhood and unwavering commitment to the movement between the two countries. In order to non-interference in the internal affairs of the improve passenger facilities on the Kolkata-Dhaka neighbouring sovereign states. Maitree Express attention is now being given to the increase in frequency of the service, introduction of The neighbourhood policy fling has fully air-conditioned service on this sector and end- successfully affected the ties between India and to-end customs and immigration clearances by Bangladesh. Since 2014 Indo-Bangladesh bilateral establishing the International Railway Terminus at relations have reached exceptional heights with close Chitpur, Kolkata. Initiatives are in progress to establish cooperation in a wide range of areas- development a new rail link between Panchagarh (Bangladesh) to cooperation, poverty alleviation, capacity building and Siliguri (India). education and above all on connectivity. Narendra Modi’s pragmatic foreign policy approach towards The opening of the Phulbari- Banglabandha Bangladesh might enable, the Look East aka Act East Immigration Check Post in February 2016 is another policy to attain new heights. The 600 MW of power significant step towards increasing people-to-people is currently flowing through the two existing contacts and facilitating movement of goods. Finally, interconnections between India and Bangladesh at both the countries recognize the advantages of sub- Bheramara-Bahrampur and Tripura-South Comilla, regional cooperation in the areas of power, water including additional 500 MW of power through the resources, trade, transit and connectivity for mutual

48 World Focus March 2018 benefit. They recognize the importance of various Manipur acting as a connector between Bangladesh regional/sub-regional cooperative/collaborative and Myanmar respectively, thereby advancing the Act initiatives like BIMSTEC and BCIM to improve the East vision successfully. The bilateral trade between lives and livelihoods of all the people across the two India and Bangladesh which stood at USD 6.6 billion countries. In this context, significant progress has been in 2013-14 with India’s exports at USD 6.1 billion made by the Joint Working Groups on Sub-Regional and imports from Bangladesh at USD 462 million, Cooperation between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and representing more than double the value of USD 2.7 Nepal (BBIN) on Water Resources Management and billion five years ago bears the testimony of the Power/Hydropower and on Trade, Transit and same.2 In case of Bangladesh, Dhaka can benefit a Connectivity (Motor Vehicles Agreement). Both the lot by strengthening economic cooperation through Prime Ministers reaffirmed their shared commitment joint investments and cooperation under the ‘Blue to deepen regional cooperation to maximize the Economy’ programme which involves synergised mutuality of interests and to ensure equitable share efforts of littoral states in the exploration of of mutual benefits in all areas, including trade, hydrocarbons, marine resources, deep-sea fishing, transport and energy. preservation of marine ecology and disaster management. Concluding Observations The growing Indo-Bangladesh relation has created a The landlocked Northeastern states, rich in kind of win-win situation for both the countries. In natural resources are just next door for Bangladesh. case of India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s By having robust border trade, Bangladesh can access pragmatic foreign policy approach towards these resources easily and in the process can Bangladesh can be compared to the popular maxim accelerate its own growth and development. of killing two birds with a single stone. First, the Moreover the Indo-Bangladesh-Myanmar gas focus on increased connectivity with Bangladesh via pipeline project if takes a fresh start will definitely the Northeastern region of India will not only provide help the country to overcome its domestic energy an easy access route to South east Asian markets constraints. Therefore both from strategic and and thereby advancing the Act East Vision but will economic point of view the bourgeoning Indo- also emancipate the Northeastern economy from its Bangladesh relations will possibly open up a new present landlocked situation. For example, to reach a chapter of cooperation and understanding in the port in Kolkata West Bengal, traders will have to travel context of the South Asia’s complex power politics. less than 600 kms via Bangladesh, or even better, travel only 200 km to access the nearby port of Footnotes Chittagong in Bangladesh. Further the various ongoing 1 Joint Communiqué issued on the occasion of the initiatives such as the trans-shipment of Indian goods visit to India of Her Excellency Sheikh Hasina, Prime through Bangladesh’s Ashuganj port to North East Minister of Bangladesh, January 12, 2010 and Joint India, expanding of rail links within North East India and between the two countries, the BBIN Motor Statement on the occassion of the visit of the PM of Vehicles Agreement can dramatically reduce the cost India to Bangladesh, September 07, 2011, http:// of transport between North East India and the rest www.mea.gov.in(accessed on 25/12/2017) of India. 2 India-Bangladesh trade may almost double to $10 The subsequent decline in prices of goods billion by 2018: CII, The Economic Times, 24 June and services can have a strong impact on consumer 2014,http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ welfare and poverty reduction in the North East. articleshow/37126716.cms? utm_s ource = contento Secondly, increased connectivity and cooperation finterest&utm_ medium= text&utm _campaign between the two nations also opens up several =cppst(accessed on 23/10/2014) additional possibilities of linking India with ASEAN via Myanmar: for example, with Mizoram and

India’s Neighbourhood Policy towards Bangladesh with special reference to Look East Policy and North East India 49 India-Myanmar Relations- Journey From ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’: Success or Failure? Dr. Rajshekhar

Introduction in his initiation of Look East Policy in Singapore in In a modern contemporary phase, India’s relations 1994, Narasimha Rao used the term “Asia-Pacific” with its north-eastern neighbouring country Myanmar instead of “Look East”. Whether, the term used by has travelled a long journey from previous UPA Mr. Rao first time or not, but there is consensus that (United Progressive Alliance) government’s ‘Look the policy of Look East foreign policy terminology East Policy’ to present NDA (National Democratic has been used widely by earlier UPA government Alliance) government’s ‘Act East’ foreign policy. and Narasimha Rao’s regime and media popularized Generally, India’s Look East foreign policy, which is it? considered as a defining moment of a strategic shift in Indian foreign policy focused more to engage India’s ‘Look East’ Policy with Myanmar: Myanmar as a spring board for Southeast Asian Historically, after independence, India enjoyed a great Nations with which it had historic, trade and partnership of cooperation with Myanmar till U Nu’s civilizational contacts has been assigned to India’s regime or before military takeover by General Ne Former Prime Minister – PV Narasimha Rao’s Win in 1962. India and Myanmar signed a treaty of initiative since 1994-95. And Act East foreign policy friendship in 1951. Later, the ground to break the to the present NDA Prime Minister- Mr. Narendra impasse between India and Myanmar was initiated Modi, putting more stress to earlier coined phrase in by the former Indian Prime Minister – Rajiv Gandhi engaging Myanmar and Southeast Asian nations as in December 1987 by visiting Myanmar with a high Indo-Pacific Nations. In this journey of coining new level of delegation in different fields. The Indian phrase and terminology, the name of earlier Minister of State for External Affairs – K. Natwar Department of Southeast Asian & Southwest Pacific Singh was part of this delegation as Myanmar foreign Studies of the School of International Studies, minister also visited India in 1987 on invitation of Rajiv Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi has been Gandhi’s government. The later visit by Myanmar also changed as a department of Indo-Pacific Studies. foreign minister – Mr. U Win Aung to India happened However, during earlier rule of NDA under former in January 19-24, 2003 after 1987 visit on the invitation Prime Minister- Atal Bihar Vajpayee no attempt has of former Prime Minister – Atal Bihar Vajpayee been made to change the name of any university government1. It is important to note that, institutional department or coining new phrase in place of Look mechanism to boundary agreement between India and East policy but he tried to speed up the earlier efforts Myanmar was signed first time during former Prime of institutional mechanism initiated by Narasimha Minister - Mrs. Indira Gandhi’s regime on March 10, Rao. Moreover, in a New Delhi seminar organized 1967 regarding matters related to joint inspection of by Burma Centre Delhi & Institute of Social Sciences boundary, repairs and restoration of boundary pillars2, and supported by Heinrich Boll Stiftung fund on 4th however meeting of Surveyor General of two August 2014 on “Look East Policy- India and countries intensified since November 1999. The Myanmar Pitching for Greater Connectivity”, India’s foreign policy to develop friendly relations of India in former Ambassador to Myanmar – Mr. Rajiv K a liberalized economic model in Asia-Pacific initiated Bhatia said that, the phrase of “Look East” foreign by Rajiv Gandhi and his then finance minister Mr. policy was not coined by former Prime Minister - Manmohan Singh, later also continued by PV Narasimha Rao or by the Government of India but Narasimha Rao during UPA regime’s look east policy. “it is a term framed by the Media and later used by Since 1993, under Look East policy, the institutional the diplomats and eventually it came to be widely mechanism was set up with Myanmar in different used by everyone.” However, Mr. Bhatia says that areas of cooperation. The first institutional mechanism

50 World Focus March 2018 after boundary agreement of 1967 was 1993 India’s Look East policy with Myanmar since 1993 agreement on narcotics control was set up with has focused on Boundary Management, Security and Myanmar3. Under Look East Policy from 1994 to Defence Cooperation, Curbing Narcotics activities, April 2002, six Memorandum of Understanding Energy and Petroleum Cooperation, Agricultural (MOU)with Myanmar was signed by India – 1. MoU Cooperation, Trade and Commerce including border on Cooperation between Civilian Border Authorities trade, Cooperation in the Information Technology of India & Myanmar signed on 21 January 1994, 2. Projects, Educational Exchanges, Cultural Exchanges, MoU on Cooperation in the Developments of Roads enhancing people to people contacts and building rail, in Myanmar along the Myanmar-India border signed road and sea connectivity. Myanmar and India signed on 19 March 1997 during the Prime Ministership of air services agreement on 28 May 20127 during UPA HD Deva Gowda, 3. MoU on Cooperation in regime. For Railway development cooperation with Agriculture and Allied Sectors signed on 25 April 1998 Myanmar, India signed MoU on 27 July 2004 to offer during the Prime Ministership of IK Gujral, 4. MoU a Line of Credit of 56.358 million US dollars for on Banking Arrangements between the United Bank strengthening rail system of Myanmar in which of India and the Myanma Economic Bank signed on enhancement of passenger services on the Yangon- 11 April 2000 during the time of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Mandalay trunk line, track upgradation, signaling and 5. MoU on maintenance of Tamu-Kalemyo road communication system was envisaged. Indian between the Government of India and the Railway also committed to deliver ten 1350 HP Government of Myanmar signed on 25 May 2001 locomotives, 48 passenger coaches and capital spares during AB Vajpayee’s regime and 6. MoU on the having a total value of 28 million US dollars during electrification of the village Yammyoaung in Myanmar Dr. Manmohan Singh’s rule8 The Feasibility Study to through Solar Energy signed on 22nd February 2002 connect India with Myanmar through rail link was during Vajpayee’s regime4. As well as MoU on done by Expert Team from Rail India Technical & Cooperation in the fields of Science & Technology Economic Services (RITES) in 2004-2005. The two signed in June 1999 during Vajpayee’s Prime experts from Indian Railways and officials from Ministership5. Myanma Railways made a study along the proposed railway line in April 2012. The first meeting of the The Tamu-Kalemyo-Kalewa road (160 KM) India - Myanmar Joint Working Group of Railways built by Border Road Organization of India started was held on 16-17 January 2013 in Nay Pyi Taw and since October 1997 and was completed in December both sides agreed to prepare the Detailed Project 2000 with a cost of Rs. 91.68 crores and inaugurated Report9 to connect 127.4 KM long new Railway line by both the governments in February 13, 2001. During from Kalay terminal station to border town of Tamu. the state visit of Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman RITES feasibility studies of 2004-2005 proposes of the ruling State Peace and Development Council construction of a new rail link between Jiribam- of Myanmar to India on 25-29 October 2004 during Imphal-Moreh at a cost of Rs. 2941.08 crore as well Manmohan Singh’s regime of UPA, many other MoU as construction of new rail between Tamu(Moreh)- signed between both the nations like – MoU for Kalay-Segyi at a cost of Rs. 28.959 crore. The cooperation in the field of Non-Traditional Security Jiribam-Imphal (Tupui) sector was scheduled to be issues signed on 25th October 2004, MoU on Tamanthi completed by March 201010 . Apart from proposal to Hydro-electric project, MoU between Export-Import start a railway network with Myanmar, the other Bank of India and the Myanma Foreign Trade Bank, projects like Kaladan Multi-Model Transport system WLL based basic telephone and internet networks in and tourist centre at Rih Lake was initiated in Look Yangon and Mandalay, Optical fiber Cable between East Policy. the border town of Moreh and Tamu and preparation of long term business linkages between both the In conclusion, India’s Look East policy not countries through Confederation of Indian Industry only set up the institutional mechanism to enhance and the Myanmar Federation of Chambers of cooperation between India and Myanmar but also Commerce and agreement on increasing land, sea steward the smooth transition from military rule to and railway connectivity6. partial transition to democratic rule in 2010. It

India-Myanmar Relations- Journey From ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’: Success or Failure? 51 happened so because Indian not only remain engaged experiences to offer in nation-building, federalism, with Myanmar government since 1993 but also democratic participation and so much more12.” It is allowed Myanmar’s democratic group to function no doubt, that as an institution military in Myanmar within its territory. Before transition to democracy in has played an important role in nation building after Myanmar in 2010, Government of India at the other independence particularly keeping national boundaries side also supported with hesitant mode to exile intact. However, this could be more easily achieved democratic government of Burma – NCGUB in transparent democratic governance in Myanmar (National Coalition Government of Union of Burma). is yet to be realized among military leaders of However, police raids were also conducted in New Myanmar or in many other Asian countries. Moreover, Delhi on exile group of democratic media of Myanmar/ lack of modern education, health care facilities, basic Burma- like Mizzima during this period. Despite these amenities like -potable drinking water, infrastructure, police raids democratic groups of Myanmar housing and poor sanitation, low per capita income functioned in New Delhi demanding democratic makes the task of government more difficult in terms transition in Myanmar having support from India’s of governance. prominent people like – Gandhian and member of Parliament – Late Nirmala Deshpanday, Hindi writer- After the inauguration of new Government Kamleshwar, politician and former Prime Minister – of NDA at New Delhi in May 2014 under Narendra Indra Kumar Gujral, NDA Convener & politician- Modi, the new NDA government announced holding George Fernandes, Senior journalist – Kuldip Nayyar of first meeting of the Joint Consultative Commission etc. Even the main political party of UPA – Indian between India and Myanmar on July 16, 2015 under National Congress Party officially supported article 1 of the consultation protocol negating earlier Myanmar’s Democratic movement and its institutional mechanism set up by earlier UPA charismatic leader - Daw Aung San Suu Kyi11. The government. In which they also agreed to hold First policy to engage Myanmar Government as well as meeting of the India-Myanmar joint boundary working democratic groups continued till 2014 UPA group13 negating protocol set up since 1967 for government. However, since 2010, exile people of boundary demarcation issues or progress made in Myanmar in India had already started moving to their earlier phase. Under Act East Policy, Narendra Modi homeland after transition to democracy in Myanmar visited Myanmar in November 11-13, 2014 and in and some shifted to the United States, Australia and September 5-7, 2017 to strengthen the relations Thailand. between two countries. The joint statement by both the nations stresses on Defence and Security India’s ‘Act East’ Policy with Myanmar: cooperatio, Trade and Commerce, Connectivity and However, after May 26, 2014 NDA government at Development Cooperation, Power and Energy, and the centre, the new policy of “Act East” from “Look Cooperation under Multi-Lateral Framework14. Most East” was inaugurated by current Prime Minister of of the major projects including Kaladan Multi Model India – Narendra Modi having characteristic and Transit Transport Project (connecting Mizoram to objective of engaging with existing government in Sittwe port in Myanmar), Upgradation of the Kalewa- Myanmar more with military groups and diplomatic Yangi Road section of the Trilateral Highway to engage Myanmar’s democratic group. The (connecting Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand question towards transition and reform of Myanmar through Myanmar), construction of 69 bridges & to democracy is in back seat under new Act East approach roads on the Tamu-Kalewa section, Rih- policy and engaging existing military leaders in power Tedim in Myanmar across Mizoram were old delayed in government is in forefront. In a recent interview to projects of Look East policy of the government of Mizzima News, Indian Ambassador to Myanmar- Mr. India. Vikram Misri categorically said that, “We help but do not set the agenda for Myanmar”, however, he In addition, when Prime Minister of India – diplomatically opined that, “India was offering and Narendra Modi visited Myanmar from September 5- would offer more support to Myanmar during its 7, 2017 on the invitation of the President of Myanmar transition to democracy, “as we have the most relevant – H.E. U Htin Kyaw, signed eleven MoU’s with

52 World Focus March 2018 government of Myanmar in various fields but press Myanmar doesn’t have any economic or strategic release misses stressing on connectivity project with interest? Myanmar. Last year in 2016, Myanmar’s President – H.E. U Htin Kyaw and State Counsellor of Conclusion: Success or Failure? Myanmar – Daw Aung San Suu Kyi visited India in We find that in both the policy of UPA and NDA August 2016 and October 2016 respectively. government much hype has been created in terms of Narendra Modi’s September 2017 visit signs eleven engaging Myanmar as a springboard to Southeast Asia MoU with Myanmar Government on issues like -1. or taking note of existing civilizational historical Maritime Security, 2. Cultural Exchange Programme, contacts between both the nations. However, UPA 3. Enhancing the cooperation of the Upgradation of government and earlier NDA government in its Look the Women’s Police Training Centre at Yamethin, East Policy without saying or adopting a word of Myanmar, 4. Sharing White Shipping information idealism in its foreign policy attempted successfully between the Indian Navy and Myanmar Navy, 5. to institutionalize the mechanism of engagement with Cooperation in the field of Coastal Surveillance Myanmar including connectivity with her. However System, 6. Cooperation between Central Drugs later NDA government is trying to give its engagement Standard Control Organization, India and Myanmar’s with Myanmar as a first attempt and knowingly belittle Food and Drug Administration for cooperation in the works of earlier governments. The present NDA Medical Products Regulation, 7. Cooperation in the government itself claims that, it is pursuing a field of Health and Medicine, 8. Exchange of Letter Pragmatic Act East foreign policy with Myanmar but for Extension of MoU on the establishment of MIIT, real connectivity is still a dream to visit Yangon or 9. Exchange of Letter for Extension of MoU on the Mandalay. Even 2012 agreement to organize ‘border establishment of India-Myanmar Center for haats’ alongside India-Myanmar border has been still Enhancement of IT Skills, 10. MoU in the field of pending. In every government and non-government elections between the Election Commission of India seminar on India-Myanmar Relations, every scholar and The Union Election Commission of Myanmar, on the subject stresses for building connectivity 11. MoU on Cooperation between Myanmar Press infrastructure between both the nations. But Council and The Press Council of India15. Apart from connectivity projects are delayed and rail-road link is these MoU’s Prime Minister also visited historic still a dream despite survey done by RITES in 2004- Ananda Temple, Bagan, where restoration work of 05? Both India and Myanmar in its statements Archaeological Survey of India is in progress, Kali respects already demarcated boundary between both Temple, Yangon, Martyrs Mausoleum of General the nations but still outstanding boundary demarcation Aung San, Bogyoke Aung San Museum etc. Indian issues exists between both the nations since 1967. government, ministry of external affairs press release on its 6th of September 2017 also stresses officially Myanmar and India signed air-services first time in its Myanmar policy as- “India’s pragmatic agreement on 28 May 2012. But the real flight Act East and Neighborhood first policy”16 . However, operations between Delhi-Gaya-Yangon route started Indian ambassador to Myanmar – Vikram Siri in his by Air-India late since November 2014 in a weekly recent interview to Mizzima News; diplomatically says basis. Present Kolkata-Yangon direct air route has on 31 August 2017, that, “the assets India are creating only two days per week flight available by Air-India. are public assets, belonging to the people and And it is easy, less costly to fly Kolkata-Bangkok or government of Myanmar, they don’t belong to Kolkata-Singapore air-route rather than flying to commercial interests from India”17. The question is Yangon, as still no direct air connectivity exists that, are we feeling shy in accepting real economic between Mandalay and India through air route. The facts, that, today’s world & Asian economies success easy air- route connectivity with Thailand and depends on a shared prosperity of partner nations? Singapore makes Thailand and Singapore as Or, the partner nation, world community or people of springboard for India to Southeast Asia rather than Myanmar are so innocent that, they will accept the Myanmar. However, there are immense possibility fact that, India or any other country engaging with of Shipping plus Cruise, Air and Road connectivity with Myanmar.

India-Myanmar Relations- Journey From ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’: Success or Failure? 53 India shares a land boundary of 1,643 kilometers her visit to India in July 2011, where she encouraged connecting Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland, New Delhi not just to Look East, but to engage East and Mizoram with mainland South East Asia through and Act East. Myanmar, the border states of Kachin in the north, Sagaing in the middle and Chin in the south of Endnotes Myanmar are the ones directly linked to the borders 1 Visit of Foreign Dignitaries to India, Unstarred Questions of Northeast India and Bangladesh. Besides rich No. 305, by Shrimati Nivedita Mane, CN Singh,GJ Javiya bilateral relations between India and Myanmar, India answered on 19-02-2003, Lok Sabha, New Delhi. 2 Border Talks, Unstarred Question No. 4929,by Ramdas is also joined with Myanmar through BCIM-EC Athawale, answered on 20-12-2000, Lok Sabha, New Delhi. (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar-Economic 3 Discussion with Myanmar Foreign Minister to Control Corridor), BIMSTEC (Bangladesh-India-Myanmar- Extremist Activities, Unstarred Question No. 167 by Drupad Sri Lanka-Thailand- Economic Cooperation or Bay Borgohain, answered on 30 November 2000, Rajya Sabha, of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and New Delhi. 4 Economic Cooperation) and ASEAN (Association of Indo-Myanmar Ties, Unstarred Question No. 4815 by Rajo Singh, answered on 24-04-2002, Lok Sabha, New Delhi. Southeast Asian Nations) framework of agreements. 5 Indo-Myanmar Relationship, Unstarred Question No. Myanmar also enjoys observer status in SAARC 2634 by W. Angou Singh, answered on 16 August 2001, (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) Rajya Sabha, New Delhi. since August 2008. 6 Joint Statement issued on the occasion of the State Visit of H.E. Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman of the State However, despite enjoying bilateral and multi- Peace and Development Council of the Union of Myanmar lateral contacts with Myanmar, India ranks ten in to India (25-29 October, 2004), Ministry of External Affairs Press Release, Govt. of India, New Delhi. permitted direct Foreign investment in Myanmar as 7 Aye Aye Hla, Status of Transport Connectivity including of 31 July 2017 with 740.642 million US dollars and Transit Facilitation in Southern Asia, Director, Ministry of only twenty- five Indian enterprises are working in Rail Transportation, Govt. of Myanmar presentation at Myanmar including TATA Sons, which constitutes New Delhi, 19-20 November 2014. 1.01 of total FDI percentage. Apart from China, 8 India, Burma sign MOU to Develop Railways, Mizzima Singapore, Thailand, Hongkong, Republic of Korea, News, New Delhi, 28 July 2004. 9 Note No. - VII. Vietnam and Malaysia, European nations like – United 10 Rail Link with Burma, Unstarred Question No. 1032 by Kingdom and Netherlands are far ahead in FDI in Sanjay Raut, answered on 02-03-2006, Rajya Sabha, New Myanmar compared with India18 The need of the Delhi. hour for pragmatic Act East Policy of NDA 11 Congress for Democracy in Myanmar: Shastri, government is to set up immigration facilities at the Hindustan Times, New Delhi, 18 September 2004. 12 Tamu-Moreh and Rhi-Zowkhathar border crossing We help but do not set the agenda for Myanmar-Indian Ambassador, interview by Subir Bhaumik, Mizzima News, points at an early date as promised and consented by Yangon, 31 August 2017. both the governments. And opening of more border 13 Joint Statement by India and Myanmar on First Meeting cross-points and starting of Mandalay-Imphal Bus of the India-Myanmar Joint Consultative Commission, service as envisaged in joint declaration of both the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India Press countries in 16 July 2015. It also requires encouraging Release, New Delhi, 16 July 2015. 14 private air-taxi operators to start cheap or low-cost Ibid. 15 List of MoUs/Agreements signed during State visit of air-services between Yangon-Mandalay-Kolkata air- Prime Minister to Myanmar, Ministry of External Affairs route. Idealist or Pragmatism in foreign policy with Press Release, Government of India, New Delhi, 6 neighborhood can sustain a long-lasting relationship, September 2017. if peoples to people contacts remain there or 16 India-Myanmar Joint Statement issued on the occasion connectivity infrastructure remains functional in air, of the State Visit of Prime Minister of India to Myanmar land and sea routes? (September5-7, 2017), Ministry of External Affairs, Govt. of India, New Delhi, 6 September 2017. 17 Note No. – XII. Act East 18 Foreign Investment of Permitted Enterprises as of 31- The term “Act East” was first popularized by US 07-2017 in Myanmar, Myanmar Department of Trade and Secretary of State – Hillary Clinton in a speech during Commerce, Govt. of Myanmar, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar.

54 World Focus March 2018 India and its Neighbours: Analysing Conflicting Relations Dr. Nivedita Giri

Context and civilians, human trafficking, infiltration, water India is the most generous and liberal nations in the dispute, encroachment so on and so forth. The world and cordial towards its neighbours. The questions arise here, what are the reasons for statement can be validated from India’s foreign policy perpetual conflict and how to overcome these for long record since ancient times. There are ample research term responsive relationship. works which analyse that India has always religiously practiced peaceful coexistence with neighbours. The Founding Principles of Indian’s Foreign Policy most significant pronouncement regarding India’s The foreign policies of India are guided by certain foreign policy in the pre-independence time was the principles and are unique in nature. These are the Congress Resolution of Haripura (Gujarat) Session means through which national interest of India is in 1938. The resolution asserted, “The people of India protected and promoted. These principles are the desire to live in peace and friendship with their considered as greatest contribution of India to the neighbours and with all other countries and for this world in the field of diplomacy and foreign policy. purpose wish to remove all causes of conflict between them…In order, therefore, to establish world peace Non- alignment is one of the most significant and enduring basis, imperialism and exploitations of principles of India’s foreign policy. As India was keen one people by another must end”.(Roy, New Delhi, to play an effective role in the international arena it 2010, p.17) decided to keep away itself from the power groups? Hence Nehru said, “ if by any chance we align India’s neighbourhood mainly comprises of ourselves definitely with one power group we may Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, perhaps from one point of view do some good but I Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and China is have not the shadow of doubt that from a larger point comparatively a complex geographical entity. One of view not only of India, but of world peace it will do can easily comprehend that India is living with harm. Because then we lose the tremendous vantage constant challenges. India is linked with these ground that we have of using such influence as we neighbours through its historical roots, languages, posses and that influence is going to grow from year cultures, common issues etc., which actually reflects to year in the cause of world.”(Hanna, 2009) He in their ethnic, linguistic, religious and political setup. further emphasized “I feel that India can play a big (Malhotra, 20140) In the area of foreign policy, part may be an effective part, in helping the avoidance reciprocity is the first principle of diplomacy but this of war. Therefore, it becomes all the more necessary has not happened with India. The experience of India that India should not be lined up with any groups of is different in this regards even though India has power which for various reasons are in a sense full always walked extra miles to be friend with the of fear of war and prepare for war.”(Nehru, 1958) neighbours. One can see that India has been facing continuous tumultuous situation at its border areas. Prof. A.K.Damodaran while writing about Frequently Indian fishermen are being arrested by Nehru’s view on Non-Alignment mentioned, “Added Sri Lanka. Just for instance, in the year 2015 about to the earlier longer preoccupations with 650 Indian fishermen were arrested by security decolonization and social justice…this became one agencies of different countries when Sri Lanka of the cardinal factors influencing India’s adoption of arrested the most. There are issues of cross-border a non-aligned posture.”(Damodran, 1983) This security issues such as attack on defence personnel principle had not only helped in securing friendship and cooperation, promoting world peace, but ensured

India and its Neighbours: Analysing Conflicting Relations 55 independence on foreign policy issues. India and NAM one can easily find that it has followed high ideals countries played very important role in cold war while designing them. But, then what could be the politics by acting as a third force to reduce the existing causes of conflicts which India is continuously facing? tension. In connection to this indeed the then Vice- A student of foreign policy and diplomacy must President of India, Dr. Radhakrishnan said: “India is analyse the issues attached to the problem. The region profoundly convinced that power politics at any time around India is full of inconsistency, inequality and meant misery to mankind in a shrinking world, with paradox in relation to politics and economy. The disaster to humanity”. (The Hindu,1955) reasons for this are: one, in the post-colonial era, the region has been experiencing inter-state and intra- The principle of opposition to colonialism and state wars. Two, it has witnessed several incidences imperialism is the result of the colonial subjugation those include liberation movements, nuclear rivalry, which India underwent for about more than 200 years. military dictatorships, terrorism and insurgencies, Hence, India firmly stands in opposition to any form intolerance religious fundamentalism, food insecurity, of colonialism and imperialism. It is with this line of drug trafficking, human trafficking many more. Three, thinking India played a major role in liberating the the region also has the dubious distinction of having countries of Asia and Africa from colonial over 540 million people who earn less than $ 1.25 a exploitations. India extended full support to Indonesia day and account for 44% of developing world’s poor. when the Government of Netherlands tried to (UNDP, Human Development Reports 2016) All overpower it and played a vital role in Indonesia’s these factors are responsible for strain relationship independence. The then prime minister of Indonesia among countries in the region. This has also a great A.H Sastroamidjojo acknowledged India by saying impact on the South Asian Association for Regional “the assistance which India has given so fully and Cooperation (SAARC) even though it now exists for whole-heartedly to my people will be written in letters over 30 years and yet the region is considered as the of shining gold in the pages of the history of free least integrated of the global regions. However, the Indonesia.”(Gupta and Shukla, 2009, p.99) India also region has showed some growth i.e. about average supported the people of East Pakistan and helped 6% per annum during the past several years. The them to free themselves (make Bangladesh) from economic growth in developing countries in Asia is the military rule of Pakistan. expected to tick down a mark from 5.8% in 2016 to 5.7% in 2017. South Asia’s economy as a whole is Since peaceful coexistence and vasudheva expected to grow at 7% in 2017, increasing to 7.2% kutumbakam are the cardinal characters of Indian in 2018. (Asian Development Outlook 2017) Four, culture to achieve world peace India fully supported democratic forms of governance are becoming the initiatives of United Nations. India is one of the desirable in most parts of the region. founding members of the UN and has played a major role in its instrumentality to achieve world peace. She On the other hand, in this region India’s has always advocated that resolution of international position seems unique in more than one sense as it disputes be done under the purview of U.N. Besides, shares borders with all other South Asian nations India extended its friendship to the countries for despite shortcomings. Democracy and rule of law as bilateral and multilateral agreements. instruments of political governance are deeply rooted in India. Transfer of power has been more or less Special emphasis on Fairness of Means is peaceful and transparent. Hence, India can be another notable feature. India has put great emphasis arguably considered as the most stable country in the on purity of means inspired by the ideas of Gandhi region, moving ahead with rapid development plans. used in the resolution of international disputes. India Further in terms of its population, territory, GDP, its has always advocated use of peaceful and non-violent image as an emerging world economy and a methods and opposed war, aggression and power responsible nuclear power, and as a country which is politics. Panchsheel is an outcome of this line of intended to play a vital role on international power thoughts which refers to peaceful coexistence.From structure, and also for many other reasons, India stands the above profound principles of India’s foreign policy apart amongst the Asian countries. In fact many

56 World Focus March 2018 views that India has created a dominant position on and demands a plebiscite in the area to determine the others in the South Asian region which in turn has people’s wish in this regard. created misperceptions about India and its intention. Hence, India may take this as reasons to be proud of Another area of discontent is the Siachen its achievements. However, in the regional context, glacier which is in the north-west of K2 (a mountain “India’s pride”, unfortunately is also “neighbours’ range). The glacier is about 75 km long and two to envy”. (FPRC Journal, 2017) eight km wide, situated about 5.8 km (5800 m) above sea level with an average temperature of -50 °C. It Besides, there are many more groundless and has huge strategic importance because of its location mistaken perceptions about India floating around in i.e. close to the Karakoram Highway between China the region like “Big Brother bullying the smaller and Pakistan. After Pakistan allowed tourists to ski neighbour”; “India treats its neighbours as a neglected and undertake expeditions in this area and set up an backyard” and India has the responsibility to look after observation post on the glacier, India conducted its neighbours as a bigger nation etc. However there Operation Meghdoot on April 3 in 1984.** Since then, is no justified explanation for the trust deficit. India’s the countries have stationed troops in this area of motives are suspected even in cases of innocent conflict at high financial expenses. While on the one proposals for economic cooperation which would lead side the growing relationship between China and to win-win situations. It is against the above Pakistan after the Sino-China war in 1962 contributed background of various challenges one has to look at to further tension on the other side India’s position the options which India’s foreign policy makers have during revolt of East Pakistan and its self- at their disposal for this region. India’s border determination stained the relations to a great extent. extending over a huge distance of about 15,200 km has been the source of many problems with her Another controversial Indo-Pak issue is Sir neighbours, most of these nations are the outcomes Creek (a 96 km tidal estuary on the border of India of separatist movements who claimed on each other’s and Pakistan). The Creek opens up into the Arabian territories. These problems occurred due to unclear Sea, divides Gujarat from the Sindh province of international borders. India has been going through Pakistan. The Creek is rich in marine life. India wants continuous conflict with its neighbours in the region the middle point of Sir Creek to be an international since its independence. Some of the major boundary between the two countries but Pakistan disagreements can be discussed below. wants the eastern bank of Sir Creek as the border. Hence, India sees Pakistan claiming a 40-km area of India and Pakistan India’s territory in the region. One more important India’s conflict with Pakistan is primarily due to land reason which has created conflicting relations is the and water distribution during partition. The boundary political instability in Pakistan. It is being realised the of India goes through Rann of Kachchh, Rajasthan, Pakistan leaders have often tried to divert the attention Punjab, and Jammu and Kashmir which touch the of their people from the domestic issues by raising land of Pakistan. The Radcliffe Award defined the the bogey of threat from India. There are multiple boundary demarcations but Pakistan wasn’t happy factors contributing tension between India and with this so claimed on 9065 sq km of territory and Pakistan. One of these is the supply of military training invaded India in 1965 to fulfill its claim. A Boundary and equipment by Pakistan to Sikh extremist. During Tribunal was set up with Gunar Lagergren of Rajiv Gandhi’s Prime Ministership, in 1986 some trade Switzerland as President, which awarded 9065 sq talks were initiated but the friction between the two km of the territory to Pakistan and as a result the further increased with the rise in the terrorist activities international boundary was revised in 1969.* in Punjab. India believed Pakistan’s involvement in that. Though India was able resolve some of the issues bothering the two nations, the status of Jammu India and Bangladesh and Kashmir remains as a permanent irritant. Pakistan Though India had a decisive role in the independence forcefully claims on this portion of Indian territory of Bangladesh there are three major factors

India and its Neighbours: Analysing Conflicting Relations 57 responsible for strained relations between the two- in 1962 Nepal rejected the defence pact offered by clashes over borders, dispute on Farakka barrage and India. The relations further deteriorated when Nepal dispute over Moore Island. Despite an agreement on made an appeal for ‘zone of peace’ for economic water sharing in 1975, Bangladesh tried to growth of Nepal. India found this demand as a violation internationalise the matter and raised it in UN. In of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship by the two in 1977, even though both the countries mutually 1950.Another ground of strain between India and concluded an agreemen, the Ganga water sharing Nepal was on the issue of signing of new trade and still continues in some way. Another conflicting issue transit treaties. There was difference of opinion as was the Moore Island in Bay of Bengal where both when India wanted one consolidated treaty Nepal the countries claimed their sovereign authority. wanted two treaties. This resulted into the lapse of Another issue of discontent was when India stopped the earlier agreement of 1978 known as ‘Indo-Nepal the illegal migration of people of Bangladesh into Transit Treaty’ leading to acute dearth of diesel, petrol, Assam. On this Bangladesh protested by saying coal and other necessary goods in Nepal. India’s action violated the 1975 agreement which prohibited construction of defensive fortification with India and Sri Lanka 150 feet of the border. There are some more issues The major concern between India and Sri Lanka is of disagreement between the two nations. Out of the the issue of Indian origin people in Sri Lanka. The total border of 3,970 km between Bangladesh and problem existed since independence of Sri Lanka in India, nearly 2,450 km have been demarcated on the 1949. India declared that the Indian origin people can ground. The establishment of the boundary provoked come to India on their won and they will be given sharp comments from the non-Muslims who protested citizenship but some wanted stay back and they will against the arbitrary transfer of Khulna, a Hindu be given Sri Lankan citizenship. In 1984-85 the majority district to East Bengal. Other areas of conflict internal ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka disturbed the include Rajasthan in Bangladesh and Murshidabad in relationship between the two nations. When Sri India where the channel of Ganga shifts frequently, Lankan government tried to suppress the conflict causing the international border to shift. Disputes many Tamilians flee to India as refugee. India’s efforts have also arisen over the Sylhet district of Bangladesh, to solve the problem were not fruitful in this regard and Garo, Khasi and Jaintia hills of India as these and both the governments lost the trust on each other. being a densely forested area, marking a borderline Relations took a serious turn following rampage by was difficult. In these cases, the Radcliffe Award Sri Lankan troops in the Vadamarachchi in 1987 which was confirmed and India’s claim was sustained. led to death of more than 600 Tamilians injured many Though most issues were resolved between India and more. While trying to solve this India sent an Air Force Bangladesh through dialogues and mutual agreements, mission to provide relief to the people of Jaffna area. the issues of human as well as drug trafficking and India and Sri Lanka have a maritime boundary. A 30- infiltration still strain the relations. km wide shallow sea, the Palk Strait, lies between the countries. The point nearest to Sri Lanka in India India and Nepal is Dhanushkodi (Tamil Nadu) and the point in Sri The Indo-Nepal border is 1752-km long. The Indian Lanka that is nearest to India is Talai Mannar, Jaffna. states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, West Though, by and large, peace has reigned where the Bengal and Sikkim touch the border of Nepal. The Indo-Sri Lanka border issue is concerned, there were relationship between the nations suffered a setback tensions over the question of who owned Kachchitevu when Koirala Ministry was dismissed in December Island in the Palk Strait. It was given by India to Sri 1960 and India showed concerned over political Lanka in 1974. changes in Nepal. King Mahendra of Nepal wasn’t happy with this and tried to become closer with China India and China by signing agreements in various areas. India analysed Despite several initiatives by India, the border conflict these as violation of the terms of treaty of 1950. On with China has become a main point of concern that the other side when Nepal described India’s view as has shattered the cordial relations existed between unwarranted intrusion into her domestic affairs. Later the two countries since ancient times. One of the

58 World Focus March 2018 significant acts India did with China was the signing Besides the above political factors, another of ‘Panchsheel’ in the year 1954. This was the major cause for worsening Sino-Indian relations has “Agreement on Trade and Intercourse between the been China’s claim on large segments of Indian Tibet region of China and India”*** signed in territory along the northern and north-eastern border Beijing by the Indian Ambassador N. Raghavan and of India. These areas were shown on the Chinese Chang Han-fu, the Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister maps published in 1922 by Sun Yat Sen. In the eastern of China. During a speech on the occasion of the sector, China claims about 94,700 sq km of Indian signing, Zhou Enlai reiterated that the questions which territory, and is in occupation of an area equal to were “ripe for settlement have been resolved”. But, 19,000 sq km including the Kamemg, Subansiri and in the following years, China betrayed the agreement Scang frontier divisions and three-fourths of the Lohit and “The Government of India found the old division of Arunachal Pradesh. China has been advantages of little use and in any case the continuously rejecting the McMahon Line as the Chinese exercised full control in Tibet.”**** international border in the eastern sector of India. It says that it was drawn by British imperialist policy of However, the agreement was colonial in aggression against the Tibet region of China and nature (i.e. the Simla Convention) had provided therefore it had never been recognised by any protection to the Land of Snows against an Chinese government. China has claimed 1,32,000 sq expansionist neighbour. In this particular matter the km of Indian territory. The arguments extended by Indian government believed that the risk of world India in the discussions regarding the boundary dispute conflict was only due to ‘irritants left by imperialism’ were strong, valid and supported by legal documents, and the Panchsheel Agreement was an effort to find whereas Chinese territorial claims were “a peaceful method of solving irritants directly unconvincing. Further, in order to settle the dispute, between two great neighbours.” Here, while the China insists that India should surrender all its claims Indian leaders believed in ‘wider perspectives’ while in the Aksai Chin area through which the Sinkiang- China pragmatically looked after its own interests. Tibet Highway passes. Even though India agrees to allow the use of Aksai Chin road for civil purposes, it Later the Chinese invasion happened in 1962. is not acceptable to China since this would prevent Many viewed there were multiple factors responsible its military usage of the road. for this. The establishment of a stable central government in China with an aggressive nationalist There are some areas of Himachal Pradesh outlook, seeking to get back all those territories which and Uttar Pradesh in India where China also showing in the past were part of the Chinese empire and which its claim. The Chinese have stated their claims on became independent as a result of general political Bara Hoti and Niang Jadhang on the ground that they disintegration. The rapid increase in the population of traditionally belong to Tibet. Bara Hoti, however, is China which had brought about an urgent need for south of Uttar Pradesh between the Sutlej and more space to live labeni rawmo (living space) and Alaknanda rivers, lying south of Thaga La Pass which to utilise the potentialities of Central Asia, Tibet and has been acknowledged by China itself as a border other relatively vacant areas for development purposes pass. Another major point of dispute has been the was the other factors. Few more identified reasons area of Tawant and Longiu. China argues that Tibet were - the strategic need to construct a road across had previously exercised its authority over these areas Aksai Chin and to acquire the territory of Ladakh to and such authority should now logically get transferred ensure the defence of the road; ideological to China. differences between the two countries, with India swearing by democratic socialism and non-alignment India and Myanmar and the Chinese ideology based on sectarian The north-eastern Indian states of Manipur, Mizoram communism, alignment and dictatorship; India’s and Nagaland, are closer to Myanmar. Recently, at support to Tibetan rebels and the Dalai Lama, and its the border at Moreh in Manipur, Burmese troops cooperation with the capitalist industrialists for arms crossed the line and entered the Holenphai village to production have been other basic causes of erect camps, claiming that the region belonged to antagonism between the countries. India and its Neighbours: Analysing Conflicting Relations 59 Myanmar and that work would not be stopped until is also a serious matter worry between India and the field commander received orders from higher Myanmar as there is a growing international concern authorities. This is a new concern of trouble between about the sectarian violence in the country. Nearly India and Myanmar relationship. Besides, the 40000 Rohingyas have their home in India now. India smuggling of arms and drugs across the border draw has been receiving Rohingya refugees and allowing large revenues and finance illegal businesses. them to settle in the different parts of the country over the years, especially after the communal violence India and Maldives in the state of Rakhine in 2012. India and Maldives have historically shared a friendly relationship since Maldives became independent in Conclusion 1966. India’s contribution in health, education and Looking at the above gamut of serious issues which development sectors is well appreciated in Maldives India has been continuously facing there need a which is below the Lakshwadeep Islands in the serious thinking in the area foreign policy making so Arabian Sea. Maldives also consider India as a that India’s security challenges from its neighbours strategic partner capable of guaranteeing security. are minimized. The following points can be considered The diplomatic and commercial relations between while designing external policy by India: India and Maldives have hit an all-time low since the There is a need to embrace an overarching strategic row over the GMR built airport erupted after a coup stability regime. deposed the former President Nashid and brought Initiating more joint endeavours through Waheed Hassan to power. The taking over of the institutionalised mechanisms to address the common airport by the government led India to put a number problems such as terrorism and Non-State Actors. of sanctions by tightening the issuing of free visa to  Confidence-building measures should be followed Maldives citizens. Post the GMR row, however, there to alleviate the “trust deficit” but should not be used have been reports suggesting a tide of anti-India as a substitute for the resolution of disputes. sentiments being voiced by some members of the  Economic co-operation and trade should be coalition in the Waheed government. facilitated to develop mutual interest.  Engaging civil society of all the neighbouring Current State of Conflicts countries in the development process of their India has initiated bilateral and multilateral negotiations respective nations as well as for regional cooperation. to solve the problems between neighbouring countries  Nations should set aside their differences and build and sign agreements for cordial relations and for on common interests. growth in all sectors. As a result many issues of tensions were resolved mutually but many more still Peace and stability are pre-requisites for continues and many new have aroused. Pakistan economic development, trade and politico-socio- continues to engage the Army in Kashmir and cultural relations. This has assumed added urgency insurgents infiltrate the absorbent and volatile border. since most of the countries in the world have obtained The Chinese incursions in Ladakh and Arunachal nuclear capability, as there is now little or no margin Pradesh are matter of concerns as China has always for error. Prevention of crises and building of mutual carried on with its policy of provocatively aggressive confidence should therefore be common objectives expansion. The issues of finalisation of China’s Belt for all the countries. There is a huge potential for the and Road Initiative (BRI) and its involvement in the expansion of bilateral trade between India and its South China Sea and the India-China border stand- neighbours. off (Doklam) are present state of concerns for India. Another bothering matter is the recent ‘fencing’ The efforts at building confidence, trust and incident in which Burmese troops constructed a fence seeking resolution of disputes can only bear fruit if on disputed land at Manipur, where the border is the process is sustained and remains uninterrupted. unclear and leads to confusion. This is to take The present Government in India is engaged in seriously by Indian government. In addition to that, confidence building measures with its neighbouring the increasing number of Rohingya refugees in India nations. Mr. Narendra Modi had elaborated all the 60 World Focus March 2018 policies and efforts of the government towards India’s ·i1 Historical Background Of India’s Foreign ... - neighbours in his swearing in ceremony as Indian Prime Minister. Narendra Modi decided to go to first shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/ foreign trip to make strong peaceful and bilateral trade 51023/8/08_chapter%202.pdf relation with Bhutan. He also had invited the Prime  Nehru J.L., India’s foreign policy-selected Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif in the swearing function. It is clear that the Current Government speeches, 1946-49, 1958, New Delhi, wants to make strong and peaceful relation with its  The Hindu, 17 November 1955 neighbours. The presence of ASEAN heads in the  Booming South Asia Is Driving Economic Growth 69th Republic Day ceremony is surely an attempt towards ensuring cordial relations with neighbouring in Asia | Asian ...https://www.adb.org/news/ nations and making a conflict free region and world. features/booming-south-asia-driving-economic- growth-asia References:  A.K.Damodran, “Jawaharlal Nehru and Non-  Meenu Roy, India and Her Sub-Continent Alignment” in India (January-March, 1983) Neighbours, Deep and Deep Publications Pvt., New  V.N.Khanna, “Foreign Policy in India”, Vikas Delhi, 2010, p.17 Publications: New Delhi, 2009 Ministry of external  India-Thailand, FPRC Journal, New Delhi, 2017 affairs  http://www.learnpunjabi.org/eos/  Amb (Retd) Achal Malhotra, India’s relationship radcliffe%20award.html with its neighbours: Conflict and Cooperation, March *reports of International Arbitral Awards, the Indo- 06, 2014, http://mea.gov.in/conflit-cooperation.htm Pakistan Western Boundary (Rann of Kutch)  https://dpsguwahati.in/dpsgmun2017/pdf/ between India and Pakistan, 19 Feb 1968, aippm%20d psg.pdf vol.XVII, p.1-576  hdr.undp.org/en/content/population-living- **postcard.news/indias-pride-operation- below-125-ppp-day meghdoot-how-indian-army-along-with-raw-de...  K.R.Gupta and Vatsala Shukla, “Foreign Policy ***www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?.../ of India”, Vol.1, Atlantic publishers and Agreement...Trade...Intercourse...Tibet+... distributors, 2009 ****www.indiandefencereview.com › Spotlights › Geopolitics

ANALYSIS OF INDIAN DIPLOMACY, FOREIGN POLICY AND STRATEGIC AFFAIRS CONVERGE AT WORLD FOCUS.

India and its Neighbours: Analysing Conflicting Relations 61 Indo-Maldives Relations and Changing Equations in Indian Ocean Region Dr. Deepak Yadav

India and Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, Gayoom and former President Mohamed Nasheed cultural, religious and commercial links steeped in made a number of visits to India during their antiquity and enjoy cordial and multi-dimensional Presidencies. President Abdulla Yameen visited India relations. India was among the first to recognise with a high level delegation on a State visit from Maldives after its independence in 1965 and to January 1-4, 2014, which was his first official visit establish diplomatic relations with the country. India abroad. He also attended the swearing-in ceremony established its mission at Malé in 1972.1 Relations of the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi in May 4 have been friendly and close in strategic, economic 2014. and military cooperation. India contributed to maintaining security on the island nation. Maldives is There is a regular exchange of high level located south of India’s Lakshadweep Islands in the ministerial visits also. India’s Minister of External Indian Ocean. India was one of the first nations to Affairs, Smt. Sushma Swaraj visited Maldives in recognize Maldives’ independence. Since then, India November 2014 and October 2015. Minister of State and Maldives have developed close strategic, military, for Tourism, Culture & Civil Aviation Dr. Mahesh economic and cultural relations.2 India has supported Sharma also visited Maldives from June 3-5, 2015 to Maldives’ policy of keeping regional issues and attend UNWTO Regional Ministerial Conference. struggles away from itself, and the latter has seen Minister of Health Shri J.P. Nadda visited Maldives friendship with India as a source of aid as well as a as the Special Envoy of Prime Minister to attend the counterbalance to Sri Lanka, which is in proximity to Golden Jubilee Independence Celebrations in July the island nation and its largest trading partner. 2015. From Maldives, recent Ministerial level visits were by Minister of Economic Development Mr. India and Maldives officially and amicably Mohamed Saeed (Jan 2014), Minister of Agriculture decided their maritime boundary in 1976, although a and Fisheries Dr. Mohamed Shainee (Feb 2014), minor diplomatic incident occurred in 1982 when the former Minister of Islamic Affairs Mr. Mohamed brother of the President of Maldives Maumoon Abdul Shaheem (April 2014), Minister of Foreign Affairs Gayoom declared that the neighbouring Minicoy Ms. Dunya Maumoon (Feb 2015 and Nov 2015) and Island that belonged to India were a part of Maldives; then Minister of Health Ahmed Zuhoor (April Maldives quickly and officially denied that it was laying 2015).India and Maldives have consistently supported claim to the island. India and Maldives signed a each other in multilateral fora such as the UN, the comprehensive trade agreement in 1981. Both nations Commonwealth, the NAM and the SAARC. are founding members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the South Asian India is a leading development partner of Economic Union and signatories to the South Asia Maldives and has established many of the leading Free Trade Agreement. Indian and Maldivian leaders institutions of Maldives including the Indira Gandhi have maintained high-level contacts and consultations Memorial Hospital (IGMH), Faculty of Engineering on regional issues.3 Technology (FET) and Faculty of Hospitality & Tourism Studies (IMFFHTS). India has offered Bilateral relations have been nurtured and assistance to Maldives wherever required. After the strengthened by regular contacts at all levels. Since tsunami that struck Maldives on December 26, 2004, establishment of diplomatic relations, almost all Prime India was the first country to rush relief and aid to Ministers of India visited the Maldives. From the Maldives. India provided a budget support aid of Rs.10 Maldivian side, former President Maumoon Abdul Crore in view of the serious financial difficulties being 62 World Focus March 2018 faced by Maldives on account of the tsunami and Tamil Eelam landed in Maldives and along with allies related factors. Assistance of US Dollars equivalent who had infiltrated the country, began taking over of Rs.100 million in July 2007 towards assistance was the government. The plot, planned in Sri Lanka by given following tidal surges in May 2007.5Currently, the Tamil nationalist group was believed to be an India has provided US$100 million Stand-by Credit attempt by a Maldivian businessman and politician facility (SCF) to Maldives, including long-term loans opposed to the regime of the President of and revolving credit for trade. Under new Line of Maldives Maumoon Abdul Gayoom to gain control Credit worth US$40 million offered by the while the PLOTE sought a safe haven and base for Government of India to Maldives, the Overseas its activities. Infrastructure Alliance (OIA) of India has been given a contract to construct 485 housing units in Maldives. The militants took control of the airport in Male, the national capital, but failed to capture Politically, India has consciously avoided the President of Maldives Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, interfering in the Maldives’ internal affairs who had fled and asked for military aid from India on despite being invited to do so by the actors in the atoll 3 November. The then-Indian Prime Minister Rajiv state. New Delhi’s major concern has been the impact Gandhi ordered 1,600 troops to aid the Maldivian of political instability in the neighbourhood on its government. In a military operation codenamed security and development. The February 2015 arrest “Operation Cactus,” Indian forces arrived within 12 of opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed on terrorism hours of the request for aid being made, squashed charges and the consequent political crisis have posed the coup attempt and achieved full control of the a real diplomatic test for Modi’s neighbourhood policy. country within hours. 19 PLOTE militants were killed Expressing concern over “the arrest and manhandling and 1 Indian soldier wounded. of former President Nasheed,” India urged “all concerned to calm the situation and resolve their India’s intervention was endorsed by other differences within the constitutional and legal nations such as the United States, Soviet Union, Great framework of Maldives.” As a result of the incumbent Britain and its neighbours Nepal and Abdulla Yameen government’s intransigence in Bangladesh.7 President Reagan called India’s action, heeding India’s appeal on Nasheed, Modi had to drop a valuable contribution to regional stability’. Margaret the Maldives from his four-nation Indian Ocean tour Thatcher reportedly commented: ‘Thank God for in March 2015. The move sent a conspicuous signal India: President Gayoom’s government has been about Indian disappointment with the saved. We could not have assembled and dispatched developments, which would undermine political a force from here in good time to help him’. But the stability in the Maldives. However, the message from Sri Lankan Island newspaper commented, ‘It would Malé was very clear: “India will adhere to the principle be ostrich-like to ignore the fear of smaller nations in of Panchsheel and will not intervene in domestic South Asia about current developments providing politics of Maldives.” In diplomatic parlance, opportunities for what has been described as the “Panchsheel” is generally used in the Sino-Indian spread of Indian hegemonism.’8 context. It was also to indicate China’s stand on the issue to New Delhi: “We are committed to non- Its speedy and decisive victory and the interference in others internal affairs.” Despite this, restoration of the Maldivian government brought both Yameen went on to visit India three times since nations even closer in friendship and cooperation. In assuming power in 2013.6 In fact, during his latest wake of internal security crises and tensions with Sri visit in April 2016, Yameen reiterated his “India first Lanka, Maldives saw its relationship with India as a policy” and signed six agreements ranging from source of future security. Indian Army’s ‘Operation defence to taxation. Cactus’ foiled a coup in Maldives that was attempted by a pro-Eelam group in 1988. India maintains a naval India: A Friend in Need presence in Maldives, at the request of the Maldives, In November 1988 speedboats carrying 80 armed since 2009. President Yameen, in an interview had militants of the People’s Liberation Organisation of said, “If they [Indian Army] had not come to our

Indo-Maldives Relations and Changing Equations in Indian Ocean Region 63 rescue, we would have lost independence during the In the recent past, China’s strategic footprint past 50 years.” Indian Coast Guard’s Dornier was in India’s neighbourhood has increased. The Maldives the first to land at the Ibrahim Nasir Airport with has emerged as an important ‘pearl’ in China’s “String relief and supplies after the tsunami of December of Pearls” construct in South Asia. Given the 26, 2004.Maldives has pledged its support to India as Maldives’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean, a permanent member of an expanded UN Security Beijing has been vying for a maritime base in the Council. On December 5, 2014, India dispatched atoll with the primary motive of ensuring the security “water aid” to the Maldivian capital of Male, after a of its sea lanes, especially the unhindered flow of fire destroyed the generator of its biggest water critically-needed energy supplies from Africa and treatment plant.9 West Asia through the Indian Ocean.

Relations between India and Maldives came Lately, the Chinese have remained among under a strain after Male had terminated the the top visitors to the Maldives. Beijing has evinced a agreement it entered into with GMR in 2010 for the keen interest in developing infrastructure in the modernisation of the Ibrahim Nasir International Ihavandhoo, Marao and Maarandhoo Islands. During Airport. The airport was taken over by the Maldives Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit in 2014, the Airports Company Limited after a high-voltage legal Maldives agreed to become a partner in China’s tussle in which GMR.Maldives government maintains Maritime Silk Route. China has provided grant and the reason for cancellation of the project was because loan assistance to the Maldives to build a bridge “the contract was illegally awarded” by the then between the capital and the airport (called the China- President Nasheed. The country’s anti-graft Maldives friendship bridge). Chinese companies are watchdog has ruled out any corruption in the leasing involved in airport development and have now been of the international airport to GMR. The airport handed islands for resort development. 10 expansion project was subsequently given to the Chinese company, which will plough in US $ 800 India started the process to bring the island million. GMR, meanwhile, has won arbitration against country into India’s security grid. The move comes the Maldives. The quantum of damages to be paid by after the moderate Islamic nation approached New the Maldives is yet to announced by the arbitration Delhi earlier in 2009, over fears that one of its island tribunal in Singapore. resorts could be taken over by terrorists given its lack of military assets and surveillance capabilities. India Maldives Growing “Closeness” with China has also signed an agreement which includes following: India is uneasy with Maldives’s relationship with China. There were media reports that China was India will permanently base two helicopters looking to establish a base in Maldives after leasing in the country to enhance its surveillance capabilities out one of the islands under the liberalised leasing and ability to respond swiftly to threats. scheme brought in by the Yameen Government, which was denied by both Male and Beijing. The country’s  Maldives has coastal radars on only two of its 26 former President Mohamed Nasheed has more than atolls. India will help set up radars on all 26 for once even commented on Maldives’ ‘pro-China’ tilt. seamless coverage of approaching vessels and China is assisting Maldives in some infrastructure and aircraft. developmental projects, including a bridge between  The coastal radar chain in Maldives will be the island in which the airport is located, Hulhumale, networked with the Indian coastal radar system. India and the Capital island, Male, which is about 10 minutes has already undertaken a project to install radars along by a passenger ferry. Maldives is also part of China’s its entire coastline. The radar chains of the two Silk Road project, a move that has not gone down countries will be interlinked and a central control room well in New Delhi. The President’s Office, has in India’s Coastal Command will get a seamless radar however, repeatedly clarified that China policy does picture. not interfere with or diminishes the country’s “special  The Indian Coast Guard (ICG) will carry out regular relationship” with India. Dornier sorties over the island nation to look out for

64 World Focus March 2018 suspicious movements or vessels. The Southern Naval to restore its required relationship with Maldives in Command will overlook the inclusion of Maldives into the times to come provided a congenial political the Indian security grid. ambience prevail in the island nation and New Delhi’s craftsmanship in handling inter-regional issues in this  Military teams from Maldives will visit the tri-services part of the world. Andaman Nicobar Command (ANC) to observe how India manages security and surveillance of the critical Recent Turmoil in Maldives and India’s island chain. Response  Ekuverin, an annual joint military exercise is held The newest crisis in Maldives which erupted on 1 every year since 2009 between India and Maldives. February 2018 took both the government and the The exercise aims to enhance the interoperability people by surprise. In a unanimous judgment, the five between the Indian Army and Maldives National member Supreme Court of Maldives directed that Defence Force in order to effectively undertake nine political prisoners including former President counter-terrorism operations in urban or semi-urban Mohamed Nasheed should be set free as cases environments.11 against them were politically motivated. It ruled that fresh cases be initiated against them. In addition, the China’s assertive domination and rising Court instructed that the 12 Members of Parliament influence in Indian Ocean Region is well-known. who had been stripped of their positions by President Being an island nation state, Maldives is the prime Abdullah Yameen because they had defected from destination in Chinese engagement in IOR. As per his Party, the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), media sources, China was looking to establish a base should be immediately reinstated and the new session in Maldives after leasing out one of the islands under of Parliament be convened with the participation of the liberalised leasing scheme brought in by the these 12 members on 5 February 2018. Yameen Government. Like in other South Asian nations, China is also putting in a considerable The judgment was warmly welcomed by investment in Maldives to attain its strategic goals. Nasheed and his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) China’s assistance to Maldives for infrastructure and as well as by all members of the opposition alliance. developmental projects in the latter is a case in point. They said that, with this judgment, Yameen had lost China is assisting in building a bridge between the all credibility and should resign. At the same, however, island in which the airport is located, Hulhumale, and they also expressed serious apprehension that the Capital island, Male, which is about 10 minutes Yameen will not abide by the judgment. This is exactly by a passenger ferry. what has transpired. Notwithstanding the wide measure of support and welcome accorded to the Maldives is now also part of China’s Maritime Supreme Court ruling by a large segment of the Silk Road project. China accounts for about one-third international community including the Secretary of tourist arrivals and is also actively investing in General of the United Nations, USA, UK, EU, India, infrastructure construction in the tourist sector in the Australia, Canada, etc., Yameen’s administration Maldives. Analysts point out that this engagement contended that it was not possible to implement the could culminate in a Chinese naval presence in ruling as this had been arrived at without hearing the Maldives. The passage of a controversial land government and also because it would lead to a acquisition law by Maldivian Parliament in 2015 that serious law and order situation.12 allowed foreigners who invested more than $1 billion to own land in perpetuity, provided 70% of it is One popular political myth about Indian reclaimed from the Indian Ocean, hampers relations foreign policy is that New Delhi has unflinching with India. Maldives, has, however, repeatedly commitment to the principle of “non-intervention”. clarified that China policy does not interfere with or India certainly is opposed to other powers interfering diminish the country’s “special relationship” with in its domestic politics. It used to criticise Western India. New Delhi’s present focus on setting the home powers for their frequent interventions in the and enduring neighbourhood first approach is going developing world. But that general principle had a

Indo-Maldives Relations and Changing Equations in Indian Ocean Region 65 big exception in India’s neighbourhood policy. China concerns are not without substance; in August 2017, is now mastering the arts of intervention that were three Chinese naval vessels docked at the Maldives’ once the monopoly of the European great powers. capital, Male, setting off alarm bells in Delhi. India is As South Asia becomes ever more important for watching the unfolding crisis in the Maldives with China, its interventionism is becoming routine in India’s concern. It is mulling different options. Not doing neighbourhood — from Nepal to Maldives and from anything is not an option given India’s stakes in a Pakistan to Sri Lanka.13Since most countries in the stable Maldives. Sections in India are in favour of an Subcontinent seek a bit of autonomy from India, they Indian military intervention in the Maldives.14Some find China’s interventionism often quite useful. But argue that it does not behove a rising power with big only up to a point. Geography and interdependence ambitions like India to shrink away from acting with India caution them against drawing too close to robustly to defend its interests in the region. Beijing, and provoking Delhi into intervention and regime change. The intensification of the crisis in the last few days, triggered by the Maldivian Supreme Court’s India has issued two statements since the decision to release all political prisoners has put Delhi crisis erupted, one on the morning of 2 February in a spot. Especially after Yameen rejected India’s exhorting the Maldivian government and all its appeal to respect the Supreme Court’s decision and agencies to abide by the Supreme Court judgment is now trying to bully the apex court into submission. and the second on 6 February conveying that it was He has probably bet that he can ride out the internal ‘’disturbed’’ at the imposition of emergency by the storm and count on support from China. The Maldivian government. The Supreme Court judgments international community, including the Western powers issued on the evening of 6 February revoking its earlier and the United Nations, are all with India in urging decision to free the nine political prisoners and Yameen to roll back his authoritarian rule.”Doing nullifying its ruling that the Judicial Services nothing” is surely an option for Delhi; that in effect Commission had no mandate over the Supreme Court means India chooses Yameen’s side. “Doing judges have obviously been obtained under something” would involve political mediation between intimidation and coercion of the security the government and Opposition, the use of coercive agencies.Yameen’s authoritarian governance has diplomacy, and ultimately force, to restore order in irked India, but it is his tight embrace of China that Maldives. Such an intervention is likely to get has raised hackles in Delhi considerable international support and some Chinese criticism. The moment, then, may indeed be ripe for In 2014, when Chinese President Xi Jinping a decisive Indian intervention in the Maldives. visited Maldives, Yameen handed over the airport project to a state-run Chinese company. The two But Delhi surely knows one thing from its sides signed a string of deals during that visit that saw past interventions. The task of fixing other people’s Beijing participate in a big way in infrastructure problems is never easy. And not all consequences of building in Maldives. Maldives also became an intervention can really be predicted or managed. enthusiastic participant in the Maritime Belt of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Then in December last year, Conclusion the Maldives and China signed a Free Trade Responding to former president Mohamed Nasheed’s Agreement, much to India’s concern. Delhi is worried call to India to use its military to end the turmoil in the about Beijing’s mounting influence over Maldives and island nation. Nasheed, currently in self-exile in Sri the strategic implications for India. China’s growing Lanka, was undeterred by China’s stance and presence in the Maldives is a serious concern to India reiterated his demand for Indian intervention , saying given the latter’s geographic proximity to the Indian Maldivians were looking to India for help as they see coastline. The Maldives also sit near international sea the country playing the role of a liberator. China’s lanes through which India’s oil imports traverse. foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang didn’t India’s security would be threatened should the mention India at a regular news briefing but left no Chinese set up a naval base in the Maldives. These doubt which country he was referring to when he

66 World Focus March 2018 said Beijing opposed foreign intervention.”The Right now, India has friends on the international community should play a constructive archipelago that have found themselves as the targets role on the basis of respecting the Maldives’ of Yameen’s self-aggrandizing campaign for sovereignty instead of taking measures that could autocratic consolidation. Striking the right balance — complicate the current situation,” Geng said when he by punishing Yameen without punishing the Maldivian was asked about Nasheed’s remarks. economy — won’t be easy. India should seek to strike a careful balance then and avoid being seen as a India needs to be measured, sober, quick and malevolent coercive power. Much will depend, of firm in any action it takes. While watching and course, on how the crisis progresses in the coming monitoring the situation closely, it needs to be battle- weeks. Already significant Maldivian opposition ready to respond to any development appropriately. voices, mostly notably former President Mohamed In conjunction with the UN and other democratic Nasheed, are calling for direct Indian involvement. countries, India should apply unrelenting pressure in a graduated and calibrated manner on Yameen to References restore freedom and independence of the Supreme 1.Devin T. Hagerty (2005). South Asia in World Court, lift the state of emergency, implement the 1 Politics. Rowman and Littlefield. pp. 102–103 February judgment and ensure that Mohamed Nasheed is able to contest the Presidential election 2.Malone, David M (2010). Does the Elephant Dance: due to take place later this year. India has been getting Contemporary Indian Foreign Policy, Oxford increasingly exasperated with the unfriendly and University Press.pp92-113. insidious antics of Yameen over the last five years. 3.“Maldives, Sri Lanka and the “India Factor””. Himal The constitutional crisis is a welcome opportunity for South Asia Magazine. Archived from the original on India to reassert its influence in its maritime neighbourhood and to establish genuine democracy 29 May 2008. and freedom in Maldives. 4.“India Maldives Bilateral Relations” Ministry of External Affairs, Govt.of India. There are a gamut of options available to 5.Ibid. India. At the onset, the advisory, which notes that Indian nationals should avoid “all non-essential travels” 6.N. Manoharan, “India-Maldives Relations: A Tale to Malé for the duration of the crisis, could have of Two Concerns” IPCS, 28 June 2017. significant economic consequences for the Maldives, 7.Devin T. Hagerty (2005). South Asia in World which relies heavily on spending by travelers to the Politics. Rowman and Littlefield. pp. 102–103. country. (India isn’t the largest source of tourists to Maldives, but other countries, including China, the 8.“Maldives, Sri Lanka and the “India Factor””. Himal largest source of tourists, have issued similar South Asia Magazine, 29 May 2008. statements.) 9.Deepalakshmi K. “India Maldives relations at a glance” The Hindu, March 25, 2017. Beyond the advisory, India could implement 10.N. Manoharan,Ibid. travel restrictions for Maldivians or any range of economic sanctions paired with coercive diplomacy. 11.“India bringing Maldives into its security net” Indian However, as India may have learned with Nepal in Express”,January 9,2017. 2015, when a de facto economic blockade impeded 12.Sajjanhar,Ashok “The Maldivian Crisis: What Can Nepali access to critical Indian goods, heavy-handed India do?”IDSA, February 08, 2018. sanctions could have longer term effects on public opinion and perceptions. India needs to pursue an 13.C. Raja Mohan, “Turmoil in Maldives: What India outcome where Yameen leaves the scene and, once must do” Indian Express, February 6, 2018. democracy is fully restored, the next Maldivian 14.Sudha Ramachandran, “India and the Maldives government should ideally find it easier than not to Emergency” The Diplomat, February 08, 2018. pursue rapprochement with New Delhi.

Indo-Maldives Relations and Changing Equations in Indian Ocean Region 67 A Path to Peace and Confidence Building in India-Pakistan Relations: Role of Domestic Dynamic After Post 9/11 Incidence Rudra Prasad Sahoo

A meaningful bilateral relation sustains in the incidence and how they agreed to continue such strong support of trust and confidence. India-Pakistan initiative and what are its implication, this paper has the two major players in South Asia unfortunately been divided into three main sections. First section has not cultivated this due to their long standing described India’s domestic environment after 9/11 political and ideological difference since their birth incident. Second section explained domestic milieu as a nation-state in 1947. A part from this their of Pakistan in the same period. Third section describes continuous military build up, acquiring nuclear weapon role of domestic factors in initiating major dialogue or and arms race to achieve strategic dominance in the confidence building between India and Pakistan and security sphere manifest them as dangerous neighbor. its possible implication in achieving durable peace in After 9/11 terrorist incidence US under George Bush this region. Fourth sections made a critical analysis declared “War on Terror” as a major weapon to deal and conclusion of, role of domestic factor in sustaining with domestic and foreign policy of USA.1 This major dialogue process. shift on terrorism at the global level had a regional ramification, particularly in India-Pakistan context. India’s Domestic Environment after post 9/11 At the time of 9/11 incidence India was rule under During this period, Pakistan was under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee who lead a military rule. Military ruler Pervez Musharraf coalition government. This coalition formed a National consolidated his position domestically to perpetuate Democratic Alliance (NDA) agreed upon power and joined hand against “Global War on fundamental principle irrespective of their party Terrorism” to reshape the regional geopolitical ideology. Running a coalition of 13 parties is more landscape in accordance with changing global politics. problematic because meeting the demand and In the meantime Pakistan was domestically in the aspiration of regional parties was a challenge at that midst of deep sectarian violence, corruption and juncture. During this time, super cyclone, Gujarat economic crises. On the other hand in India the so earthquake in 20012, 2002 Gujarat riots, were the called nationalist party (The Bharatiya Janata Party) major challenges NDA government faced during their shows enough political maturity by handling both ruling period. Despite these challenges BJP continued domestic as well as foreign policy. It shows political to rule for full five year term period in India. The maturity and sagacity dealing with Pakistan. main reason was, BJP and NDA under the leadership Therefore it is essential to analyses these of Vajpayee demonstrated political maturity. Vajpayee (particularly) domestic development and its possible had successfully handled the NDA administration by impact on confidence building effort to brought focusing on key areas of development. These were fundamental transformation in India-Pakistan (their national security, economic growth, social age-old) relationships. Procuring peace requires development and democracy.3 Conducting assembly continuous adherent to dialogue and confidence elections in Jammu and Kashmir in 2002, successful building measures (as a part of institutional mechanism conclusion of a peace agreement with the Bodo for continuing cooperation). But the question here is Liberation Tigers, initiation of peace talks with Naga how the two antagonistic states agreed to continue and overall development of North East, Path breaking mutual confidence building to sustain peace in this effort towards improving infrastructural development region. of Pradhan Mantri Grama Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) and the Golden Quadrilateral are the major events To know how confidence building has that shaped during his tenure. happened between India and Pakistan after 9/11 68 World Focus March 2018 Man Mohan Singh led UPA-1 (2004-2009) and Administered Tribal Areas (PATA). These areas UPA-II (2009- 2014) carried on the Islamic demand for sharia that The May 2004, election victory of Congress party challenged the constitution of Pakistan. The jihadi led to the formation of United Progressive Alliance sharia was based on the enforcement of “marufaat”.9 (UPA) at the center. UPA-1 which ruled from 2004- 2009 had an impressive average 8 percent economic 2002 Election and restoration of Democracy growth. Taking advantage of this high growth, it There were more than 70 political parties that expanded some social programmes such as contested the November 2002, Parliamentary election MGNREGA but did not take measures for a sustained in Pakistan.10 Military manipulate the religion backed long term growth.4 India was badly affected by the party Muttahid- a -Majlise Amal(MMA) to naxalite movement in this period. In 2006, the then strengthen their hold in the political establishment of Home Minister Shivraj Patil said that Naxalite the country.11 The PML-Q favorite and former Movement is a serious concern which claimed 6000 Baluchistan Chief Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali was thousand live.5 Man Mohan Singh led UPA-11 which elected to serve as a Prime Minister. But his had ruled India from 2009-2014 was found indulged difference of opinion on the issue of National Security in corruption. Anna Hazare moment captured the Council (NSC) and Musharaf ‘s continuation as an Indian imagination and public reasons were articulated Army Chief lead to his resignation on 26 June 2004. to choose a corruption free government. The cross Jamali nominated the PML president and Parliament border firing between the two armies continued in Speaker Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain as his successor. January and August 2013 posed detrimental to India– But his Prime Ministership was a transitional Pakistan peace process. The national assembly of arrangement. Later Shaukat Aziz a former finance Pakistan passed two resolutions condemning Indian Minister succeeded him as Prime Minister of Pakistan. army shelling at the LoC in August 2013.6 In 2002, the internal domestic situation of Pakistan became its worst due to the rise of Sunni extremist Modi (2014- till date) groups such as the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) Modi’s Prime Ministership came with thumping and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi(LeJ). Insurgency in majority in 2014 general election. Not much opposition Baluchistan revived again in 2004. The main reason and weak opposition in Lok Sabha leads to little of this increase in violence was political alienation compulsion to his impulse. This has a qualitative and and economic deprivation of balochi people. Abdul quantitative impact on the operation of the Rauf Mengal, an M.P from Baloch claimed that very government. few people from Baloch are in civil service and have nil presence in diplomatic services of the country12 Pakistan’s Domestic Environment after post 9/ Violence was hugely varying across the country and 11 even within the provinces. Much of the political Under a “Provisional Constitutional Order” (PCO) violence was with religious dimension. But after 2005 Musharraf declared a state of emergency and Pakistan saw another insurgency in Baluchistan. In suspended the constitution.7 In June 2001, President 2005 Pakistan experienced an earth quake.13 Mohammad Rafiq Tarar was forced to resign under the PCO. Musharraf later legitimated his status as a The Red Mosque incident in 2007 was the president with an April 2002 referendum. In August turning point which called in to question the state’s 2002, President Musharaf announced a “Legal capacity to control these militants. For months radical Framework Order” (LFO) for constitutional militant organizations had accumulated weapons in changes.8 There are different fundamentalist terrorist the compound of a mosque located in a residential groups operating in Pakistan and destabilizing the area of Islamabad, a few hundred meters away from domestic conditions as well the condition of the headquarter of ISI, Pakistan’s premier military neighboring countries. They can be differentiated intelligence agency. This red mosque event leads to looking into their nature of activities. After 2001, the some militant movements which captured a substantial rise of Jihadi Power took place in Federally part of the swat valley in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Provincially increased incidence of violence and radical religious

A Path to Peace and Confidence Building in India-Pakistan Relations 69 movement later got polarized between anti and pro in US, UK and Belgium.15 The uncertain constitutional state organization. The Baluchistan insurgency is status of two regions further aggravated the domestic about achieving independence against the federal situation. These were Azad Kashmir and Gilgit- government. It is distinct from the conflict with the Baltistan regions. Although in November 2009, Gilgit- Pakistan Taliban in the FATA or from the fight against Baltistan region was brought within the framework Al Qaeda or sectarian groups in other parts of the of Pakistan constitution. But both the regions are country. In Baluchistan, the strong Taliban presence testimony to the unfinished status of Pakistan’s border was developed after 2001. Traditionally Baloch and consequences to its nationhood.16 Rise of religious nationalists have rejected the Islamisation project, less fundamentalism lead to the assassination of Governor for its ideological content than because they perceived of Punjab Salman Taseer and the Minister of minority it as part of a larger scheme to isolate individuals and affairs, Shahbaz Bhatti in early 2011. make them more amenable to Islamabad’s policies. As a result they always oppose Islamist movement In May 2013, Nawaz Saharif’s party won but weakening of the nationalists through military the election and he was chosen as Prime Minister of repression is also sapping their resilience. In parallel, Pakistan. In this election, 162 registered political Baluchistan has also become a nexus of sectarian parties competed. Today there are as many as 282 outfits. The Lashkar-e-Janghvi(LeJ) and Sipah-e- political parties functioning in Pakistan.17Pakistan, Sahaba Pakistan and Sipah-e- Mohammad among since its creation has undergone a process of its own others have established a presence in the provinces political and constitutional development. But it was backed by a vast network of Debondi Madrassas. impeded by a crisis. When Pakistan society was in In November 2007, the General finally resigned from the crisis, military intervened and took power from his army post due to internal and external pressure. the civilian government. In the last 67 years of An election was held in February 2008 . Pakistan existence, four military rulers directly ruled Pakistan Peoples party(PPP) under Asif Ali Zardari and along for 34 years. Terrorist activities have been routine with Pakistan Muslim League- Nawab (PML-N) activities in Pakistan soil. The Militant attack on Army formed a coalition and out shed Musharraf from Public School, Peshawar in which 150 persons were office on August 2008.14PPP lead coalition under the killed including 134 children; the Tehreek-e- Taliban Prime Ministership of Yusuf Raza Gilani (2008-2012) Pakistan (TTP) claimed they have hatched it. This is ran the government in Pakistan up to 2012. In July a clear indication that this revenge was taken against 2012 the judges convicted Gilani for contempt of court Pakistan military’s operation in North Waziristan. thereby disqualifying him from holding public office. Mullah Fazlullah, chief of TTP has been operating As a result, he was dethroned from his Prime from Afghanistan. Reacting to this incident Ministership. Raja Pervez.(2012-2013) was chosen government of Pakistan on December 24 shaped a as the next Prime Minister after Giliani’s exit from National Action Plan (NAP) which developed a 20 government . point programme to make zero tolerance for militancy in Punjab.18 PPP lead government decided to abolish the defunct NSC in 2009. In April 2010 the most significant Even Pakistan’s Army Chief General Qamar democratic reform came in the form of eighteenth Javed Bajwa stressed for a NAP to meet challenge constitutional amendment. This amendment restored Pakistan is facing from economy and security front. the constitution to its parliamentary essence by He said the biggest concern of Pakistan state is its diminishing president’s power. But the role of Inter foreign debt. This around$58 billion, the figure is Service Intelligence(ISI) was very complex and it released by finance Ministry of Pakistan.19 was playing an instrumental role in destabilizing the South Asian region. Intelligence sources suggest that Role of Domestic Factor in Initiating India- Pakistan after 9/11 incidence supported the Taliban Pakistan CBMs by providing new Chinese made shoulder launched The experience of West on constructive engagement anti aircraft missiles. Even there was claim in July or CBMs process suggest that the two nuclear 2011 that ISI has been funding Kashmir lobby groups adversaries( US and USSR) socialize with CBM

70 World Focus March 2018 lexicon after meeting a crises and near to disaster.20 Minister Vajpayee to visit Pakistan. Jamli offered a More or less India-Pakistan also followed the same few CBMs to India. These were: logic. The 2001-2002 crises and its experience 1. Resumption of train and bus service with provided impetus to initiate CBMs in India-Pakistan immediate effect relations. To substantiate this, J.N.Dixit the former 2.Restoration of air links National Security Advisor says, “the declaratory 3.Immediate release of all Indian fishermen and some position of Pakistan on nuclear weapon remove other prisoners complexities, suspicion and uncertainty about its 4.Resumption of sporting ties capability and this will help both India and Pakistan 5.Restoration at full strength of the diplomatic missions to discuss all dispute in rational manner”. in the two capitals24

After the 2001-2002 crises, Confidence Just after the announcement of different Building Measures (CBMs) between the two CBMs by both India and Pakistan, a major countries were initiated after Prime Minister conference was organized by the South Asian Free Vajpayee’s announcement at a rally in Srinagar on Media Association (SAFMA) on understanding 18 April 2003 that India was willing to extend a “hand confidence building and conflict resolution. This of Friendship” to Pakistan.21 Over the Kashmir issue, conference was held in Islamabad in August 2003. Prime Minister rolled out the possibility of redrawing Though this was a people to people initiative but due the boundary to resolve the Kashmir issue. After to the personal interest of the then foreign Minister September 11, 2001, Pakistan was the most strategic of Pakistan, Kasuri, the government functionary ally of US in the fight against “global terrorism”. In including President and Prime Minister of Pakistan such situation, Pakistan had no option but to end the were also involved in this process.25 cross border infiltration permanently as a part of curbing terrorism across the world. India a victim of Indian Proposal to Pakistan: October 22, 2003 terrorism and Pakistan out of compulsion expressed On 22 October 2003, India announced a set of readiness to make the boundary at Line of Control ( proposal to promote people to people contact between LoC )a free zone to improve the life of people through India and Pakistan. These are mentioned below. adoption of CBMs.22 As a result ,full diplomatic 1.Resumption of civil aviation links to be followed by relations were restored in the month of May 2003 resumption of the rail link; between two countries. After few days of this 2.Resumption of sporting link including cricket meeting Foreign Minister of Pakistan Khursid 3. Permission to Senior Citizens ( above 65 years) to Mahmud Kasuri welcomed Prime Minister cross Wagah on foot Vajpayee’s announcement relating to the appointment 4.Holding of visa camps in different cities to benefit of the Indian high Commissioner to Islamabad.Both the people of both India and Pakistan India and Pakistan tried at the government level to 5 Increase the capacity of Delhi-Lahore-Delhi bus initiate peace dialogue but they could not succeed. It service by running more buses. was due to the effort of some Indian and foreign 6.Establishment of links between the two coast guard NGOs who had worked hard to make the authorities of India and Pakistan arrangement for their negotiation. The Washington 7.The non-arrest by either side fishermen of other based International Center for Religion and country within the certain band on the sea. Diplomacy, since 2001 had sent teams of clergy and 8.Provision of free medical treatment to a second lot laypeople to Kashmir to work on both side of the line of 20 Pakistani children of control. By the summer 2004, it had conducted a 9.Resumption of passenger shipping service between reconciliation seminar in which more than three Mumbai and Karachi hundred local Muslim, Hindu and Buddhist leaders 10.Commencement of bus service between Srinagar participated.23As a result of the civil society’s effort, and Muzaffarabad Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali welcomed 11.Starting a bus or rail link between Munabao in the announcement of 18 April 2003 and invited Prime Rajasthan(India) and Khokrapar in Sind(Pakistan)

A Path to Peace and Confidence Building in India-Pakistan Relations 71 12. Further increase in size of the respective high foreign secretaries and over all progress is to be commission26 reviewed at the ministerial level. Both the foreign Secretaries of India and Pakistan abide by the Joint CBMs and Ceasefire (November 25, 2003) Statement of 6 January 2004 and accordingly met on On 23 November 2003, Pakistan Prime Minister Mir 18 February 2004. The question is why India initiated Zafarullah Khan offered a ceasefire along the LoC peace move? The necessary answer is Vajpayee with effect from Eid-al-Fitr.27 This was accepted by wanted Peace with Pakistan and wanted to be in India on the very next day. India accepted the history as a peace loving person. In addition, Pakistani offer and proposed a similar ceasefire along international pressure was also a compelling factor the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL). This issue for initiation of peace move.33 In toto, for India, it was discussed later during a discussion between two was Vajpayee leadership to take risk, and his political Director Generals of Military operation held on 25 will, International pressure and Musharraf ‘s initiative November 2003. Both the DGMO agreed that they to rebuild his credibility after the collapse of jihadist will follow ceasefire simultaneously on the and lastly public support in both countries that international border, LoC and AGPL with effect from necessarily lead to resumption of composite the midnight of November 25, 2003.28 Even services dialogue.34 like commercial air service, bus and train link which were suspended after attack in Parliament in 2001 The first round of talk begins in February were restored again. 2004. In this meeting the modalities of the composite dialogue was prepared and finalized. The schedule Resumption of civil aviation and train service of various dialogues was released. Schedule of The second round of civil aviation talk was held in various dialogues: New Delhi on 1 December 2003. Both countries agreed to resume point to point service and over flight 1.Talk on Kashmir bus service: 8-9 March 2004 with effect from 1 January 2004 on a reciprocal basis. 2.Talk on Bus service( Pakistan Sindh province and Likewise technical discussions were held on 18-19 India’s Rajasthan state)- 29- 30 March 2004 December 2003 in New Delhi to resume Samjahhta 3.Border Security official discussion on smuggling and express and freight train service with effect from 15 drug trafficking – March or April January 2004.29 4.Expert level Nuclear Confidence Building Measures- May 2004 Resumption of Composite Dialogue (C.D.) 5.Foreign Secretary level discussion on Kashmir-May Twelfth SAARC Summit was held in Islamabad on or June 4-6 January, 2004. On the sideline of this summit 6.Talk on Terrorism and economic cooperation –July India-Pakistan leader organized a meeting. After their 2004 meeting a Joint Statement was proposed .The meeting 7.Summit level meeting of Foreign Minister- of two leaders was preceded by diplomats of their August,2004 respective countries as well as pressure from the US.30In the Joint Statement……Both leaders India sought to begin the momentum of talk welcome the recent steps towards normalization of by initiating discussion related to the nuclear issue relations between the two countries and expressed but in this meeting both set out a framework for the hope that the positive trend set by the CBMs future talk. This led to initiation of expert level talk would be consolidated.31 The Islamabad declaration on nuclear confidence building measures which began of January 6, 2004 expressed that composite dialogue in May 2004.The process of election in India will lead to peaceful settlement of all bilateral issues interrupted the peace process because the whole including Jammu and Kashmir, to the satisfaction of government establishment was waiting for the both the sides.32 This meeting gave the stamp of legitimate government to carry forward the peace approval by both heads of government to resume process with Pakistan. After Man mohan Singh composite dialogue process. It was decided that each became Prime Minister of India, he carried forward round of dialogue is to be initiated and reviewed by the peace process initiated by his predecessor Mr

72 World Focus March 2018 Vajpayee. The second expert level meeting was held 1.Expressed satisfaction on the smooth operation of on June 2004. In this meeting some quick progress Muzaffarabad-Srinagar bus service. was marked. The two sides agreed on upgrading the 2.The two Ministers welcomed the signing of two communication between the Director General of agreements : Military Operation (DGMO) and also on establishing a)Agreement on Pre-Notification of Flight testing of hotline between the foreign secretaries. But Ballistic Missiles operationalization did not follow immediately. They b)Memorandum of Understanding(MoU) on also issued a joint statement after the end of the talk. Establishment of a Communication Link between the The most important part of this statement was, both Pakistan maritime Security Agency and the Indian states had joint interest in finding ways to have their Coast Guards nuclear status recognized by other states.The formal 3.They reaffirmed their commitment to maintain the first round of composite dialogue was completed in integrity of the composite dialogue. September 2004. The joint statement of foreign secretaries was issued on 8 September 2004 based Joint Statement of India Pakistan foreign on 13 different areas of agreement including the draft secretary on commencement of third round of agreement on advance notification of missile tests. composite level talk was held in New Delhi on January 18, 2006.37 In this talk, they continued the Joint statement of second round review meeting discussion on finalizing an agreement on “Reducing of C.D. at foreign Secretary Level The foreign the risk of nuclear accident and unauthorized use of secretary level talk was held on 1 September 2005 to nuclear weapons and concluded an agreement on review the progress of the second round of composite prevention of incidents at sea in order to ensure safety dialogue. The major outcome of this came in the form of navigation by naval vessels and aircraft belonging of a joint statement on 2 September 2005.35 These to the two sides. The Pakistani side indicated that are mentioned below. they will present a draft of such agreement. They also agreed not to develop new posts and defense 1. Welcome the continuation of ceasefire; 2 welcome work along the LoC. The modalities for the conduct the commencement of the Srinagar Muzafurabad bus of already agreed monthly flag meetings between service, 3. Both agreed that the 1988 Cultural local commanders of the selected sectors were exchange programme agreement should be revised, finalized. They also agreed to open five crossing points 4. They also took the decision to expand 1974 bilateral across the LoC.President of Pakistan General Pervez protocol on visit to Religious Shrines to increase the Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan number of Pilgrims and added new sites in both Singh met in the sideline of Nonaligned Movement countries. Also both agreed to update the 1974 visa (NAM) Summit held in Havana, Cuba on September agreement; 5. They also agreed to revise the 1982 16, 2006 and decided to institutionalize India-Pakistan protocol on Consular access; they also welcomed the anti –terrorism mechanism to identify counter decision to release all prisoners on 12 September 2005 terrorism initiatives and investigations to curb terrorist whose nationality was confirmed and who had activities. completed their sentence. They also declared the scheduled of initiation of third round of Composite Joint statement of Third round of review meeting Dialogue. of C.D. at foreign Secretaries level The review of the progress of third round of composite Joint statement of second round review meeting dialogue process was held at foreign secretary level of C.D. at foreign Minister level on 14-15 November 2006.38 They discussed in This was followed by a ministerial level review accordance with Havana statement and they agreed meeting held between the foreign minister of Pakistan to set up a 3 members anti terror mechanism headed Kasuri and Indian External affair Minister Natwar by an Additional Secretary (International Singh, in Islamabad on 3 October 2005.36 In this organization), from External Affair Ministry of meeting they resolve that, they will carry forward Government of India and the Additional Secretary ( the peace process and to maintain its momentum. UN& EC), Foreign Affairs Ministry, Pakistan. Both

A Path to Peace and Confidence Building in India-Pakistan Relations 73 welcomed the inauguration of the hotline between on May 25, 2012 in Islamabad.42Joint statement on the Pakistan maritime agency and the Indian coast Siachen talk was held at defense Secretaries level in guard on November 14, 2006. They decided to release Rawalpindi on 11-12 June 2012.43In this meeting they the Prisoners by December 25, 2006 on humanitarian committed to early resolution of Siachen issue. grounds whose sentences have been completed. Foreign secretaries of both countries met in New Delhi and produced a joint statement on July 5, 2012 Joint statement of fourth round review meeting for bilateral talk on peace, security including CBMs, of C.D. at foreign Minister level Jammu and Kashmir and promotion of friendly Joint statement was issued after foreign ministerial exchanges.44 In this meeting they discussed issues review of composite dialogue in Islamabad, on 21 relating to nuclear / conventional CBMs and May 2008.39 In this statement both highlighted the recognized the threat coming from terrorism, both major achievements of composite talk. These were: interested in strengthening cross LoC CBMs and 1.MoU to increase the frequencies of airlines; 2. agreed to convince a meeting of working group on Agreement on truck service at the Wagah-Attari cross LoC on July 19, 2012, and emphasized greater border; 3. Increasing the frequency of Delhi- Lahore parliamentary exchange, promotion of religious and Bus service from two to three trips for week; 4. other issues like sports and other areas. Signing of agreement on “Reducing the Risk from Accident relating to nuclear weapons”; 5. MoU The foreign minister of Pakistan Ms. Hina between the Security and Exchange Board of India Rabbani Khar and Indian External Minister (SEBI) and Security and Exchange Commission of S.M.Krishna met in Islamabad to review the progress Pakistan (SECP) to facilitate the sharing of information in the composite dialogue process on September 8, between two agencies, 6. Completion of joint survey 2012.45 In this statement they welcomed the signing of Sir Creek and adjoining areas; 6 Two meetings of of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on “ Drug the Joint Anti-Terrorism mechanism were also Demand Reduction and Prevention of illicit organized during this period. This was followed by Trafficking in Narcotics Drugs/Psychotropic Home secretary level talks held on 29 March 2011, Substances and precursor Chemicals and related in New Delhi.40This meeting was held in pursuance matters” between the Anti Narcotics Force of of the decision taken in Thimphu (Bhutan) in February Pakistan and Narcotics Control Bureau of India in 2011 by both India and Pakistan. They agreed to set September 2011. The incident of Pathankot and Uri up hotline between Home Secretary levels to share terrorist attacked derail the structured dialogue information in respect to terrorist attack. They agreed process which saw many Up and down in India- to resume talks bi-annually. They also discussed issue Pakistan relations. Despite absence of structure pertaining to Mumbai terror attack, Smajhutha dialogue momentum has built in the past few month Express blast, and issues of inadvertent crossers of to facilitate religious tourism and the release of both side etc. The foreign minister of Pakistan Ms. prisoners who are languishing in each other’s jail. In Hina Rabbani Khar and Indian External Minister addition India’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit S.M.Krishna met in Islamabad on 27 July 2011 and Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Nasir Janjua meet produced a joint statement.41 This meeting was in Bangkok to reintroduce comprehensive dialogue preceded by foreign secretaries meeting held on June process to restore peace by adhering to CBMs.46 23-24, 2011. Both ministers expressed satisfaction for the ongoing dialogue process, expressed concern Critical Analysis to strengthen cooperation on counter terrorism and Jane Eugenia Vaynan in his work, “Enemies in adopting humane approach towards fishermen, Agreement: Domestic Politics, Uncertainty and women, elderly Juvenile delinquency and monitor Cooperation between Adversaries,”( Harvard welfare measures for prisoners and agreed to adopt University:Cambridge,2014) argued that domestic recommendation of judicial committee on prisoners. volatility such as leadership changes, political unrest They also took major decisions on Cross LoC Travel allow states to take recourse to formal institutional and Trade. Joint Statement issued by India and form of Cooperation or CBMs process. During highly Pakistan on the Home Secretary level talk was held uncertain security condition, state attempts to take

74 World Focus March 2018 4 Arvind Panagariya, Economic Progress During the First Two years Under Prime Minister Narendra risk on cooperation and willing to initiate formal Modi, Occasional Paper No.111, May 24,2016. Access at. http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/ document_publication/Two%20Years%20under%20PM%20Modi.pdf on 23.12.2016 agreement with adversary. They choose low 5 David M.Malone, Does the Elephant Dance? Contemporary Indian Foreign Policy, Oxford University Press ,New Delhi,2011,p.57 monitoring or minimal exchange provision of CBMs 6 Kashmir Group Initiative, Background to the Kashmir Conflict: Challenges and Oppertunities,P.2. Access at. http://www.c-r.org/sites/c-r.org/files/BackgroundtotheKashmirConflict_KIG_Sep2013.pdf to avoid misunderstanding but when a longer peace on 19.12.16 7 Mohammad Waseem, Civil –Military Relations in Pakistan in Rajshree Jetly (ed) Pakistan in Regional prevail adversary will choose high monitoring and and Global Politics, Routledge, New Delhi,2009, P.202 8 The major controversial clause of this constitutional change (LFO) was presidential appointment of transparent CBMs to cultivate a culture of military chief and creation of military dominated National Security Council (NSC).NSC had power to monitor over all process of governance. confidence. This thesis is true to certain extent in 9 Khaled Ahmed, Pakistan and the Nature of State: Revisionism, Jihad and Governance, Criterion Quarterly, Vo.5, No.2, 2010, Access at. http://www.criterion-quarterly.com/pakistan-and-nature-of- India-Pakistan context also.If we analyses India’s the-state-revisionism-jihad-and-governance/ 10 Pakistan’s political and securities challenges, Research Paper07/68, House of Common Library, 13 peace initiative after 2001-02crises, it has been found September 2007, P.10 11 Kalim Bahadur, Regional Implications of the Rise of Islamic Fundamentalism in Pakistan ,Strategic that Indian leadership found cost of going to war was Analysis, Vol.30, No.1, Jan- March 2006,pp.7-29 12 Aolk Bansal, The Revival of Insurgency in Balochistan, Strategic Analysis,Vol.29, No.2, April- risky. Therefore, Indian leadership made a calculus June ,2005,pp.250-268 13 As a kind gesture India sent 25 ton relief material to Pakistan. of decision to initiate peace talk to get dividend. 14 Aqil Shah, The Military and Democracy, in “ Pakistan at the Cross roads: Domestic Dynamics and External Pressure” (ed) Christophe Jaffrelot, Columbia University Press, New York, 2016P.33 Likewise Pakistan was experiencing internal instability 15 Victoria Schofield, Pakistan: 2011,The Round Table The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs, Vol.100, No.147,December 2011,pp623-628 , Access on July 1,2016 mainly sectarian violence coupled with economic 16 ibid 17 Sheikh Nadeem Ahmed, Sajida Begum, Historical Perspective of Political and Constitutional crises which prompt Pakistan to reciprocate peace Development in Pakistan, IOSR Journal of Humanities And Social Science(IOSR-JHSS), Vo.20,Issue.2, Ver.II9Feburary, 2015,pp.77-89, Access at. http://www.iosrjournals.org/iosr-jhss/papers/Vol20-issue2/ talk in the larger (Immediate) national interest. From Version-2/O020227789.pdf 18 Christophe Jaffrelot, The Peshawar effect, The Indian Express, February 17, 2015 2004 to 2008 and then 2011-2012 more mature and 19 Pakistan wants peaceful relations with ‘belligerent’ India: General Bajwa, Times of India, October 11,20 17 high CBM initiative were conducted and agreed. But 20 Michael Krepon, The Stability-Instability Paradox ,misperception and Escalation Control In South Asia, Washington D.C, Henry L. Stimson Center,2003,p.3 then Pakistan is also victim of its own home breed 21 M.P.Singh & Veena Kukreja, Peace Process between India and Pakistan, in Veena Kukreja & M.P.Singh (ed) Pakistan: Democracy, Development & Security Issues, Sage Publication, New Delhi,2005,P.260 terrorism. The repeated terrorist activities inside 22 Khurshid Mahud Kasuri, Neither A Hawk Nor A Dove: An Insider’s Account of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy, Viking by Penguin books India ,2015,P.161 Pakistan lead to military operation (under General 23 Charles Hauss, Melissa Haussman, Comparative Politics: Domestic response to Global Challenges , Eight Edition, Wadsworth ,Cengage Learning,US,2013P.360 Kayani and under General Sharief). Pakistani 24 Ibid,p.163 25 For detail analysis, Khurshid Mahud Kasuri, Neither A Hawk Nor A Dove: An Insider’s Account of establishment made a more comprehensive discussion Pakistan’s Foreign Policy, Viking by Penguin books India ,2015,p.164 26 Ministry of External Affairs (India), Annual Report ( 1 January 2003- 31 March2004) P.28-30. to counter the menace of terrorism is itself a positive Access at. https://mea.gov.in/Uploads/PublicationDocs/165_Annual-Report-2003-2004.pdf 27 This is for the first tie Pakistan announced ceasefire after Independence .For detail See M.P.Singh sign to create an ambiance for peace talk. & Veena Kukreja, Peace Process between India and Pakistan, in Veena Kukreja & M.P.Singh (ed) Pakistan: Democracy, Development & Security Issues, Sage Publication, New Delhi,2005,P.261 28 Ministry of External Affairs (India), Annual Report ( 1 January 2003- 31 March2004) P.30. Access at. https://mea.gov.in/Uploads/PublicationDocs/165_Annual-Report-2003-2004.pdf The domestic dynamics is one of the factors 29 Ibid 30 Paul Bowers, Kashmir, Research Paper 04/28 , House of Common, 30 March 2004, P.35 that motivate adversary state to initiate cooperation. 31 , Khurshid Mahud Kasuri, Neither A Hawk Nor A Dove: An Insider’s Account of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy, Viking by Penguin books India ,2015,p.168 This is basically stressed to the nature of ruling 32 Swapan Dasgupta, Sweetly Spoken- India and Pakistan are not yet Ready to burry the hatchet, The Telegraph, September 24,2004 access at. http://www.telegraphindia.com/1040924/asp/opinion/ coalition, leadership of individual in the government story_3794174.asp on26.11 2016 33 M.P.Singh & Veena Kukreja, Peace Process between India and Pakistan, in Veena Kukreja & M.P.Singh establishment, economic strength of a country and to (ed) Pakistan: Democracy, Development & Security Issues, Sage Publication, New Delhi,2005,P.263 34 Ibid,p.263 a larger degree power matrix within domestic setting. 35 Joint statement after foreign secretary level meeting between India and Pakistan. Access at. https:// www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/6869/Joint_Statement_after_Foreign_Secretary_level_ At the same time engaged in negotiation or talks_between_India_and_Pakistan on 2.1.2017 36 Joint statement, India-Pakistan in Islamabad, October 4, 2005. Access at. https://www.mea.gov.in/ continuing peace talk also influences by other factors bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/6958/Joint_Statement_India__Pakistan_in_Islamabad on 2.1.2017 37 Joint Statement on foreign Secretary level talk in New Delhi 18 January 2006. https://www.mea.gov.in/ such as international pressure, geo-strategic need, bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/5959/Joint_Statement_IndiaPakistan_Foreign_Secretary_level_ talks_in_New_Delhi on 2.1.2017 structure of international system etc. In the geo – 38 Joint press statement , India-Pakistan foreign Secretary level talks November 14-15, 2006. Access at.https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm? political calculus , the role of domestic factor gain dtl/6361/Joint_Press_Statement_India Pakistan Foreign_Secretary_Talks_November_1415_2006 on 2.1.2017 much importance because ruling elite hide their 39 Joint Statement issued after foreign Minister level review of fourth round of composite dialogue in Islamabad, Access at .https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/5250/ weakness ( when a government face economic crises Joint_Statement_issued_after_Foreign_Minister_level_Review_of_the_Fourth_Round_of_Composite_Dialogue_Islamabad on 2.1.2017( Pranab Mukharjee, India’s External Affair Minister, and Makhdoom Shah Mahmood or incapable of handling rising expectation of Qureshi, Foreign Minister of Pakistan meet in Islambad to review the progress of fourth round of composite dialogue progress). domestic civil society or inability to control sectarian 40 Joint statement of Home secretary level meeting held on 29 March 2011. https://www.mea.gov.in/ bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/4520/Joint_Statement_following_IndiaPakistan_Home violence ,etc) then country interested to engage in Interior_Secretary_level_talks on 2.1.2017 41 Foreign Minister produced joint statement on 27 July 2011, Access at. https://www.mea.gov.in/ cooperation with adversary mostly to meet tactical bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/87/Joint Statement following_meeting_between_the_Minister_of_External _Affairs_of_India_and_Minister_of_Foreign_Affairs_of_Pakistan on 2.1.2017 eventuality. 42 Joint Statement of Home secretary level talk on 25 May 2012. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral- documents.htm?dtl/19871/Joint_Statement_issued_by_India_and_Pakistan_on_the_Home_ Secretary_level_talks_held_in_Islamabad on 2.1.2017 43 Joint statement on Siachean Talk held on 12 June 2012.https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents. Footnotes htm?dtl/19910/Joint_Statement_on_IndiaPakistan_Siachen_Talks on 2.1.2017 1 Adam Hodges and Chad Nilep, Discourse, war and terrorism in Adam Hodges and Chad Nile(ed) 44 Joint statement at foreign secrtary level held on 05 July 2012, Access at. https://www.mea.gov.in/ Discourse, War and Terrorism, John Benjamin publishing house ,Amsterdam, Netherland ,2007, p.3 bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/20060/Joint_Statement_on_India_Pakistan_Foreign_Secretaries_level_ 2 During this period Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf sent relief material to India from Islamabad talks on 2.1.2017 3Resolution on the Completion of five years of Sri Atal Bhiari Vajpayee” Prime Ministership, National 45 Joint statement issued by India and Pakistan during the visit of External Affairs Minister to Pakistan, Executive Meeting, Indore, April4-5, 2003, Access at . http://www.bjp.org/en/national-executive- Access at. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/20530/Joint_Statement_issued_ 2015/2003/resolution-on-the-completion-of-five-years-of-shri-atal-bihari-vajpayees-prime-ministership by_India_and_Pakistan_during_the_visit_of_External_Affairs_Minister_to_Pakistan on 2.1.2017 on23.12.2016 46 Sachin Parashari, No Formal Dialogue but India-Pakistan in touch, Times of India, January2,2018 A Path to Peace and Confidence Building in India-Pakistan Relations 75 India and SAARC: Moving from Regional to Sub-regional Cooperation in South Asia Dr. Bharti Chhibber

The paper emphasizes on strengthening sub- decades. President Zia-ur-Rahman of Bangladesh regional cooperation in South Asia under Article took the initiative in forming SAARC against the 7 of the South Asian Association for Regional backdrop of the 1980s’Afghanistan crisis. Initiatives Cooperation (SAARC) Charter which allows like South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement cooperation among three or more SAARC (SAPTA) and South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) members. Through sub-regional collaboration, and India’s role in SAARC will be further analysed. member states can move ahead on a common path It is followed by evaluation of sub-regional of economic growth, infrastructure development, cooperation in South Asia like Bangladesh, Bhutan, better means of transportation among regional India and Nepal Growth Quadrangle (BBIN) and states and enhanced people to people contact. South Asia Sub-regional Economic Cooperation This will further have a positive impact on politico- (SASEC) Programme. The paper provides some strategic relations among South Asian countries. policy suggestions to intensify sub-regional cooperation in South Asia for true development and Inroduction stability in the region in an era of globalisation. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation to all other SAARC countries to his swearing-in Background to the Formation of SAARC ceremony in 2014 made it clear that he gives priority President Zia-ur-Rahman of Bangladesh took the to the neighbouring states. It was a mini summit with initiative in forming SAARC against the backdrop of bilateral talks held individually with SAARC states. the 1980s Afghanistan crisis. In May 1980, he This symbolic gesture highlighted that the South Asia addressed letters to the Heads of Government of is at the forefront of India’s foreign policy. In order South Asian countries urging regional cooperation in to forge closer ties with neigbhouring states this was South Asia. In December 1980, paper on the ‘Proposal followed by high level visits to Nepal, Bangladesh for Regional Cooperation’ in South Asia was circulated and Bhutan. However, Prime Minister Modi’s by Bangladesh. Explaining the rationale for regional ambition for SAARC is challenged by many factors cooperation the paper agues, the countries of South including the continuing tensions with Pakistan, the Asia share many common values that are rooted in uncertainty over Afghanistan and the role of outside their social, ethnic, cultural and historical traditions. actors like China which pose threats to reinvigorating Perceptions about certain specific events or political SAARC. The 2016 SAARC Summit to be held in situation of the world may differ, but such differences Pakistan was cancelled when India decided to boycott do not seem to create a gulf between them that cannot the Summit owing to cross border terrorist attack on be bridged. In fact, the beginning of cooperation on a the military base in Uri. Many other SAARC states regional basis may be a positive force in generating a also followed India’s decision to stay away from the climate of harmony conducive to a better perception Summit. In this scenario, going beyond SAARC is a of what the countries in the region have in common way out for cooperation in South Asia through sub- and the value of this shared heritage.1 It was also in regional efforts. Though some sub-regional initiatives reaction to the beneficial effects of regional are already underway in South Asia, need is to arrangements in other parts of the world that SAARC reinvigorate them to enhance closer ties among South was formed. Asian countries. The paper also suggested an institutional The paper begins with the background to the framework for regional cooperation. The structure formation of SAARC and its evolution over the envisaged an apex body in the form of Heads of 76 World Focus March 2018 Government, a Council of Ministers comprising the region to provide all individuals an opportunity in Foreign Ministers of Member States and a Permanent live in dignity and to realise their full potentials…3 Secretariat. It further spelt out certain spheres where SAARC has adopted ‘functional approach’ to cooperation among South Asian states could be cooperation. To begin with the areas chosen for beneficial. These included tele-communications, cooperation were those where political concerns were transport, shipping, tourism, meteorology, agricultural least involved. Though economic growth and and rural sector, cooperation in the field of education collective self-reliance were mentioned as aims and and science & technology. objectives in the charter, in practice cooperation in the economic field was taken up much later by the While the proposal was immediately endorsed member states. by Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives, initially both India and Pakistan did not show much The sixth Summit held in Colombo in enthusiasm, though for different considerations. The December 1991 approved the establishment of an Indian government accepted the proposal in principle. Inter-Governmental Group (IGG) to seek agreement However, India took a cautious approach as it was on an institutional framework to pursue trade apprehensive of the proposed regional organisation liberalisation in South Asia. The IGG evolved a draft being used as a bargaining counter where the smaller agreement. The signing of the framework agreement nations could collectively seek to force their position on SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement on India. Hence there was stress on bilateralism, not (SAPTA) at the seventh SAARC Summit by the multilateralism until the mid-1980s. heads of State in Dhaka in 1993 was the first major step towards expanding trade among the member Pakistan was reluctant to endorse the states. With all the member countries having ratified proposal as it perceived that India would stand to the agreement, it came into force in 1995 - which gain maximum benefit from such an organisation due marks the end of the first decade of SAARC’s to its greater economic potential and scientific and existence.This also marked the beginning of SAARC technological capabilities. This would further enhance cooperation in the core area. Several factors its position politically in the region. Moreover, Pakistan contributed the formation of SAPTA. The end of the also wanted to develop profitable relations with the cold war and the advent of democracy in Nepal, Muslim states of the South-West Asian region and Bangladesh and Pakistan brought a new political clan felt that these chances might be weakened by joining which was more open to cooperation. However, by a South Asian regional association. Finally it joined that time SAARC states had already embarked on a the SAARC so as not to isolate itself in South Asia programme of economic liberalisation. At the and also to champion the smaller countries against international level, proliferation of regional economic India.2 This clearly brings out different perceptions arrangements all over the world also acted as a of national interests and perceived threats among catalyst. South Asian states. As a result of exchanges of views at the foreign secretary level during a period of five SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement years a fairly broad-based and comprehensive (SAPTA) scheme of South Asian regional cooperation was Preamble of the agreement on SAPTA highlight that evolved. The first meeting of the foreign ministers of the member states understand the expansion of trade Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan, Bhutan, India, Nepal could act as a powerful stimulus to the development and Sri Lanka was held in New Delhi in 1983. At the of their national economies, by expanding investment conclusion of the meeting foreign ministers signed a and production, providing greater opportunities of declaration on South Asian regional cooperation. employment and help enhancing living standards for their population. It further says,’ … convinced of the SAARC over the Years need to establish and promote regional preferential SAARC Charter, 1985 highlights ‘… the objective of trading arrangements for strengthening intra-regional the Association shall be…to accelerate economic economic cooperation and the development of national growth, social progress and cultural development in economics… Bearing in mind the urgent need to

India and SAARC 77 promote the intra-regional trade which presently Bangladesh pointed out that it had exports to the constitutes negligible share in the total volume of the SAARC region in the year 1993-94 and 1994-95 in South Asian trade ... liberalisation of trade in the region only 18 of the 214 items on which other members through a step by step approach in such a manner have offered concessional tariff rate. that countries in the regional share the benefits of trade expansion equitably ... recognising that a For the second round of trade preferences preferential trading arrangement is the first step IGG met four times to finalise the National Schedule towards higher levels of trade and economic of Concessions (NSC). In this round, concessions cooperation in the region…4 have been granted by specifically identifying country to which it has been granted. Second round led to a Article 3 enlists the principles on which the larger exchange of concessions. 2,013 products were agreement is based. conceded concessions. However in practical terms (a) SAPTA shall be based and applied on the principles this round too led to a modest trade coverage. of overall reciprocity and mutuality of advantages in Members seemed to be more concerned with the such a way as to benefit equitably all contracting product coverage rather than trade coverage which states, taking into account their respective levels of is vital for trade liberalisation. In this round India economic and industrial development, the pattern of offered concessions on 911 tariff lines and received their external trade, trade and tariff policies and concessions on 474 tariff lines. During this round non- systems... (b) SAPTA shall be step by step, improved tariff barriers (NTBs) were addressed regarding 172 and extended in successive stage with periodic products only. reviews; the special needs of the least development contacting states shall be clearly recognised and The Council of Ministers at its nineteenth concrete preferential measures in their favour should session at Male in 1997 directed the IGG to conduct be agreed upon, (d) SAPTA shall include all products, third round of negotiations on sectoral and across the manufactures and commodities in their raw, semi- board basis. It urged the removal of NTBs. Third processed and processed forms. Article 4 mentions round of negotiations were concluded in November that arrangement should cover tariffs, para-tariffs, 1998. Negotiations for SAPTA fourth round were non-tariff measures and direct trade measures. Article initiated in 1999. However due to Pakistan’s 5 discusses the ways of negotiations. (1) The misadventure in Kargil the eleventh SAARC Summit contracting states may conduct their negotiations for stood postponed. It was held on January 2002 in trade liberalisation in accordance with any or a Kathmandu. combination of the following approaches and procedures:- (a) product by product basis ; (c) High tariffs within the SAARC region sectoral basis (d) direct trade measures. (2) SAARC encourage informal trade across borders. Moreover states agreed to negotiate tariff preferences initially the low performance of intra-SAARC trade is not on a product-by-product basis.5 only due to higher tariffs, but also due to NTBs specially in form of quantitative restrictions (Qrs). During the first round of negotiations a total On 1 August 1998, India unilaterally removed QRs of 226 products were offered by the Member states. (on 2000 items) on imports from SAARC countries Nearly 50 per cent of the products (106) were offered subject to the condition that they comply with the by India. This shows the modest nature of concessions rules of origin principles. exchanged during the first round. Total value of regional trade liberalised during the first round was Regional Cooperation under the Aegis of no more than 72.5 million dollars, equivalent to no SAARC more than 6 per cent of intra-regional trade in 1993. The SAARC Committees on Economic Cooperation Most of the areas in which countries have offered (CEC) comprising commerce secretaries of SAARC duty reductions, are either not at all traded among member-countries has recognised the importance of the member states or show limited trading. Pakistan adequate infrastructure in the fields of transport and imported only 13 of the 35 products it offered. communications to promote trade. The CEC

78 World Focus March 2018 commissioned a study on the Transport Infrastructure like Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives and Sri and Transit facilities in the SAARC Region to pursue Lanka, India does not ask for reciprocity but gives all the task assigned to it. that it can in good faith and trust. Secondly, no South Asian country will allow its territory to be used against The activities of the SAARC technical the interest of another country of the region. Thirdly, committee on transport include exchange of data and none will interfere in the internal affairs of another. information, preparation of status papers, establishing Fourthly, all South Asian countries must respect each a SAARC highway, undertaking the first updating of others territorial integrity and sovereignty. And finally, the data on rail transport, optimising of operational they will settle all their disputes through peaceful efficiency in railway systems, preparation of bilateral negotiations. The Doctrine stemmed from Directories on Consultants and Experts in the field of the belief that India’s stature on the world stage was transport, exchange of information in the field of closely tied to its relations with its neighbors.6 highway safety. The SAARC Technical committee on transport recommended establishment of high Further, India’s remarkable growth could act speed (cross-border) trains, improvements in safety as an anchor for the whole region and make a positive and energy conservation, inter-sectoral cooperation contribution to its development. This is certainly with other related Technical committees of SAARC much-needed, as despite India’s impressive success, and cooperation with concerned international South Asia as a whole is plagued by extreme poverty, organisations and upgradation of transport mega-urbanisation, immense disparities between rich technologies. In 1994, a memorandum of and poor and fundamental problems in the areas of understanding has been signed between SAARC and infrastructure, energy and the environment.7 Asia Pacific Tele-Community (APT) for cooperation in this field. SAARC summits have often provided a framework to hold discussions and resolve disputes The Constitution of the SAARC Chamber vital for the whole region. Some smaller SAARC of Commerce and Industry, formally inaugurated in nations see China’s membership as a possible way 1994, included the development of shipping and other of balancing out India’s strength within SAARC. India modes of transport in the SAARC region as one of vetoed Nepal’s proposal in early 2010 to convert its objectives. The agreement on SAPTA also China’s observer status into full membership. For India, emphasise the need for improvement of transport and a country which currently has negligible levels of trade communication link in the region. Article 12 specifically with other South Asian nations, the region offers mentions, contracting states agree to undertake immense potential for growth. It would not be a case appropriate steps and measures for developing and of reinventing the wheel if India were to invest heavily improving communication system, transport in its neighbours in order to develop strong consumer infrastructure and transit facilities for accelerating markets, for the European Union has already shown the growth of trade within the region. that this can work successfully. However, the European project would have never succeeded SAARC and India without trust and respect for the perceptions of its SAARCs failure to realize its goals may be due to partners, especially the smaller ones.8 several factors like strained bilateral relations and cross border terrorism but India’s engagement with As SAARC Charter envisages, the SAARC has evolved over the years. India initially fundamental objective of SAARC is to promote the played a limited role in the alliance, choosing instead welfare of the peoples of South Asia and to improve to engage with its neighbours bilaterally based on their quality of life. Lately many new regional reciprocity. However, as its economic clout grew in establishments have been created under SAARC like the mid-1990s, India began to assume a greater role SAARC Development Fund in Thimphu, South Asian as a regional leader. Then Prime Minister I.K. Gujral University in New Delhi, SAARC Arbitration Council outlined five principles to govern India’s relations with in Islamabad and SAARC Regional Standards its immediate neighbours. First, with the neighbours Organisation in Dhaka. Moving beyond SAPTA in

India and SAARC 79 the economic field, South Asian Free Trade Area for the patient and an attendant. During a launch (SAFTA) Agreement was signed in 2004. Phased event at Indian Space Research Organisation, Prime reduction of customs duties have been negotiated Minister asked Indian scientists to develop a dedicated over time. In Phase I, each member country effected SAARC satellite in order to share the fruits of the 20% mandatory reduction in the number of items technology like medicine, and e-learning with people on its Sensitive List. The cumulative figure of intra- across South Asia which will be a gift from India. SAARC trade flows under SAFTA has crossed US$ India will be spending Rs 235 crore on the satellite, 2.9 billion during 2013-2014. However, current trade which will have 12 transponders. 9 Pakistan has under SAFTA accounts for only about 10% of the decided to opt out of the SAARC satellite project.10 total regional trade and Indias trade with South Asia Likewise, a SAARC Motor Vehicle Agreement, accounts for only 5 % of its global trade. SAARC providing connectivity in the region, could not be Agreement on Trade in Services came into force in signed because of reservations expressed by Pakistan. December 2012. The Agreement provides for expanding intra-regional investments and trade Sub-Regional Cooperation in South Asia liberalisation in the services sector. The Least Sub-regional economic cooperation appropriately fits Developed Countries in the region, Afghanistan, into this context. In SAARC ministerial meeting in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives and Nepal are Kathmandu in 1996, Nepalese officials circulated a accorded special and differential treatment. draft proposing sub-regional cooperation. At Male Summit in 1997, the SAARC agreed to consider sub- India, in addition to its annual contribution, regional cooperation under article 7 of the Charter made a voluntary contribution of US $ 100 million, to which allows cooperation among three or more states the SAARC Development Fund (SDF) for projects not necessarily all the SAARC members. With the in the social development field. SAARC Motor objective of enhancing regional solidarity and Vehicles Agreement and the SAARC Railways promoting overall development within SAARC, the Agreement were endorsed by the Inter- Heads of State or Government encouraged, under Governmental Group on Transport (IGGT) meeting the provisions of Articles VII and X of the Charter, held in New Delhi on 30 September 2014. India has the development of specific projects relevant to the proposed negotiating a Regional Air Services special individual needs of three or more Member Agreement. Cooperation in hydroelectric power States.11 This would avert any one member country projects with Bhutan is further growing. Free Trade vetoing entire regional collaboration. Nepal proposed Agreement with Sri Lanka already exists. development of inland waterways to get access to seaports in India and Bangladesh. At the 18th SAARC Summit on Deeper Regional Integration for Peace and Prosperity, Prime Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal Growth Minister Modi said ‘Our vision for the region rests on Quadrangle (BBIN) follows a project led approach five pillars trade, investment, assistance, cooperation to cooperation in the core economic areas of in every area, contacts between our people and, all multimodal transport and communications, energy, through seamless connectivity. This is the call of our trade and investment facilitation, tourism, optimal times’. He further mentioned some important initiatives utilization of natural resource endowments and by India like setting up a Special Purpose Facility in environment. These projects are to be supportive of India to finance infrastructure projects in our region and complementary to the national plans of the that enhances regional connectivity and trade, India concerned states. BBIN have entered into an to give business visa for 3-5 years for citizens of agreement to facilitate transportation of people and SAARC nations and also proposed the idea of a goods among the four SAARC member nations. SAARC Business Traveler Card for ease of doing business. Only with necessary connectivity infrastructure in terms of transport; energy/power For those coming to India for medical transmission; communication will the member treatment, India will provide immediate medical visa countries benefit from the agreements that they have

80 World Focus March 2018 reached to bring down tariff barriers. Thus, sub- three being transport, trade facilitation and energy) regional cooperation focuses on these non-tariff to link economic corridors across SASEC countries. barriers. It is also observed that the institutional It is expected to contribute to further industrial growth agreements and sub-regional cooperation facilities and productivity and the creation of high-quality jobs.13 complement each other wherein the latter helps in Asian Development Bank (ADB) serves as the effective implementation of the former. In the SASEC Secretariat. SASEC Operational Plan 2016- absence of connectivity infrastructure, even in a 2025 is a comprehensive long-term plan. It contains scenario of free trade, the member countries will not a long list of potential projects that could be benefit.12 Meetings are being held among Power and implemented over the next 10 years as well as the Transport Secretaries of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India subset of projects that could be funded by ADB. This and Nepal on Hydropower and Regional Road plan has following strategic objectives: Transport Connectivity since 2015. (i) Enhancing physical connectivity through multimodal Sub-regional cooperation endeavours are less transport systems that are aligned more closely with formal in nature than regional integration. Their focal the development of markets. Multimodal transport point is usually the border areas of states involved infrastructure development will remain an important rather than the whole countries. Following Indian priority. Prime Minister Narendra Modis neighbourhood first policy, Indian Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar in 2015 (ii) Following a comprehensive approach to transport undertook what was known as SAARC Yatra and and trade facilitation that will expand the current focus discussed sub-regional partnership on his visit to from land-based to sea-borne facilitation, to Bhutan and Bangladesh. complement investments in multimodal networks.

The South Asia Sub-regional Economic (iii) Enhancing electricity trade, which will lead to an Cooperation (SASEC) Programme brings together expanded and diversiûed energy supply to meet Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri energy needs and secure power reliability. This will Lanka in a project-based association with a view to be pursued by improving energy trade infrastructure, enhance regional prosperity and create economic developing a regional power market by harmonizing opportunities for the people of the sub-region. It aims legal and regulatory frameworks, and developing low- to build multimodal cross-border transport networks carbon alternatives and conservation and energy that speed up the time and reduce the costs of efficiency measures. transportation and communication to achieve the common goal of augmenting intra-regional trade in (iv) Promoting synergies between economic corridors South Asia. SASEC members meet regularly to being developed in individual SASEC countries, and discuss and address shared interests to work for better optimizing development impacts of these economic connectivity in the sub-region. SASEC further aid corridor investments through improved cross-border members in the field of energy security through links.14 infrastructure development and sub-regional power trade to reduce costs and dependence on imports. ADB has already approved nine SASEC countries have implemented 46 regional infrastructure projects costing $2.4 billion as part of projects since 2001 in the spheres of energy, economic SASEC operational plan for 2016-25. Of these, three corridor development, transport, trade facilitation, and projects two economic corridors and a road bridge information and communications technology which are in India. The nine projects comprise two rail are worth more than $9 billion. projects in Bangladesh worth $890 million, two economic corridor initiatives (a project and program In 2016, the SASEC countries approved the loan) and a bridge project in India worth an aggregate SASEC Operational Plan 2016-2025, which charts of $1.2 billion, trade facilitation and airport projects out 10-year strategic roadmap initiating Economic in Bhutan worth $27 million and key SASEC road Corridor Development as a fourth sectoral area (other and energy projects in Nepal worth $302 million. All

India and SAARC 81 these projects are aligned with the SASEC OP’s nation is not willing to cooperate. As Prime Minister thrusts of developing road and rail links aligned closely Narendra Modi told the leaders of the SAARC at with trade routes toward the east, streamlining trade the 18th Summit in Kathmandu, ‘The bonds will grow, procedures, and improving energy infrastructure.15 through SAARC or outside it, among us all or some India can additionally take the lead in promoting sub- of us’. Hence, despite challenges and indeed because regional projects in South Asia as sub- regional of them cooperation in South Asia in the domain of partnership is expected to remove bottlenecks that regional trade, infrastructure development and energy hinder the spirit of our neighbourhood first policy. India is critical to India’s twin objectives of development is pressing for better connectivity with neighbouring and stability in the neighbourhood. countries Nepal and Bangladesh for effective sub- regional cooperation. India is interested in linking References Kathmandu with Delhi and Kolkata, using direct 1 SAARC (1980) Paper onProposal for a Regional railway lines to enhance cross-border connectivity Cooperation in South Asia, Government of the Peoples and facilitate people to people contact. Moreover to Republic of Bangladesh, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, facilitate trade, the Indian government has also asked November 1980. the state-owned Container Corporation (Concor) to 2Bharti Chhibber (2004) Regional Security and Regional examine course of a cargo train to Bangladesh. Cooperation: A Comparative Study of ASEAN and SAARC, New Delhi: New Century There are currently three rail links to 3 SAARC (1985) Charter of South Asian Association for Bangladesh all through West Bengal and all of them Regional Cooperation, 8 December remain under-utilised. Of the three, the Gede (India) 4SAARC ( 1993) Agreement on SAARC Preferential Darshana (Bangladesh) link, which opened in 2008 Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) offers broad gauge connectivity to the key 5Ibid. consumption centre in Dhaka~ it is used to run a 6http://www.brookings.in/reinvigorating-sacra-indias- passenger train four times a week. The Singhabad opportunities-and-challenges/ (India) Rohanpur (Bangladesh) rail link connects 7 northern Bangladesh but not the South. A passenger Tomislav Deliniæ (2011) Kas International Report, Vol.2 8 train Maitree Express connects Kolkata with Dhaka.16 Ibid. 9India’s satellite ‘gift’ for SAARC to be up in Dec 2016 Conclusion (2015) Business Standard, 13 March Recent setback on the SAARC front notwithstanding 10Pakistan Opts out of SAARC Satellite Project (2016) it is high time that cooperation in South Asia should Indian Express, 22 March. move from potential to performance. Even after three 11SAARC (1997) Declaration of Ninth SAARC Summit, decades of existence SAARC members have failed Male, Maldives to cooperate fully and take advantage of regional 12 G Padmaja (2015) Sub-RegionalCooperation can Give opportunities. Better infrastructure facilities like SAARC New Wings Analysis, South Asia Monitor, 25 development of means of transportation will certainly March help. South Asian countries should also abolish non- 13 For details see http://www.sasec.asiaindex.php tariff barriers so that there is free flow of trade apart 14 ADB (2016) South Asia Sub-regional Economic from cooperation in the area of customs procedures. Cooperation Operational Plan 20162025 Institutional Document, Philippines However this is not to say that SAARC has 1 5 http://www.domain-b.com/finance/banks/ not been of any use. SAARC has proved its Asian_Development_Bank/20170331_projects.html usefulness as a regional association which has brought 16Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury (2017) India Proposes Direct countries of divergent perceptions together. SAARC Rail Link to Kathmandu from Delhi & Kolkata? Considers was not designed as a conflict resolving mechanism, Cargo Train to Bangladesh, The Economic Times, 24 as charter has specifically ruled our bilateral and February contentious issues. Moreover, sub-regional cooperation is a way to integrate the region if any

82 World Focus March 2018 Kashmir - A Centre of India-Pakistan Dispute: Needs Balanced Solution Suchismita Khandei & Dr. Amulya K Tripathy

Introduction Pakistan. In an attempt to force Kashmir to become The Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir comprises part of Pakistan serious external pressure was applied the Kashmir valley, Jammu, Poonch, the remote on Kashmir by the Pakistan authorities by refusing to dependencies of Gilgit, Baluchistan and the isolated send to Kashmir supplies, which are vital to the needs province of Ladakh or “Little Tibut.”1 Their size and of people, such as food grains, salt, sugarand petrol. area almost matched the total area of England, Wales Then it sent tribal raiders on 22 October 1947 to Kashmir and Scotland.2At the time of partition, about 90% of to counter the Maharaja. In the beginning of October, the valley’s population was Muslims. Jammu is the there took place dramatic developments. Armed Hindu majority area. Poonch a Muslim majority area, bands moved into the Jammu province from the the Ladakh is mainly Mongoloid in racial character, neighbouring districts of west Punjab, and burnt Tibetan in language and Buddhist in religion. The villages and towns and killed many people. Refugees economic life is mainly dominated by the Lama series. from these areas began to pour into Jammu. The Maharaja felt that it would not be possible for his forces From the cultural perspective, there is no to retaliate and sought the assistance of the Indian other state in India, which has so much racial government (initially India did not want to interfere in heterogeneity as Kashmir. It is a multi-racial, the internal affairs of Kashmir) to confront the multi-lingual and multi-religious state. The first Dogra invaders. However, the government of India felt that, Ruler, Gulab Singh’s dominion produced a strange without Kashmir acceding to the Indian Union, it could union of Hindus, Pathans, Sikhs, Tibetans, Buddhists not send the Indian troops to Kashmir. On 26 October and Muslims in a state which had no unifying basis in 1947 Maharaja Hari Singh wrote to Lord Mountbatten, cultural tradition or political history. The earlier the last British Governor General, that he wanted his Kashmiris had suffered terribly at the hands of the State to accede to the Indian Union. invaders, especially those from the West and South West. As a result, they developed an attitude of distrust With the acceptance of accession Mount towards all outsiders. Such distrust can be seen in Batten wrote on October 27, 1947: “In the case of the modern struggle for the rights of the Kashmiries any state where the issue of accession has been a as a Nationality. subject of dispute, the question of accession should be decided in accordance with the wishes of the Moreover, the major aspects on the Kashmir people of the state, it is my government’s wish that problem are the images and the ideas that India and as soon as law and order is restored in Kashmir and Pakistan had created on the eve of the partition. its soil cleared of the invaders, the question of the Immediately after independence in the 1947 the clashes states accession should be settled by a reference to between India and Pakistan started on the issue of the people. Kashmir. When many of the princely states joined Indian Union, the ruler or Kashmir did not take any Contesting the accession of Kashmir to India, decision in this connection. Maharaja Hari Singh, the Pakistan claimed that India annexed Kashmir by force. ruler of Kashmir, decided to remain independent. He Two different arguments were provided by Pakistan: made a standstill agreement with Pakistan by the (a) Pakistan claimed that religious affinity of the exchange of telegrams on August 12 and 16, 1947. majority of the Kashmir’s made it potentially a Before the conclusion of a standstill agreement with Pakistani province; (b) The state of Kashmir had a India, Pakistan cut off communications and stopped longer boundary with Pakistan than with India. It the supply of essential commodities (grains, clothes, blamed the ruler of Kashmir saying that since the ruler kerosene, salt and sugar) for forcing Kashmir to join of Kashmir State was a Hindu, he made his State a part Kashmir - A Centre of India-Pakistan Dispute: Needs Balanced Solution 83 of India on his own. It also argued that Kashmir was First Indo Pak war important for it in economic terms since the major rivers The war clouds gathered soon after independence. of Pakistan have their source in Kashmir, it wanted to By October 20th October 1947 the Pakistani Army annex Kashmir to its territory. entered the conflict in support of the tribal forces in a multi-pronged effort designed to capture Uri, Jhangar, Pakistan’s claim for Kashmir is based on Rajuara, and Naushera in the opening days of the geographical and socio economic conditions of the campaign. Pakistan’s timetable was to capture the region. To quote Zafarullah Khan, “It is well known capital of Kashmir, Srinagar, within a week. that every factor, on the basis of which the question of accession should be determined: Population, On October 22, 1947, a Lashkar of tribal, Cultural and religious bonds, the flow of trade, the some five thousands strong, led an incursion into the economic situations, communication, the geographical valley of Kashmir from Abbottabad. Tribal and position, strategic considerations, points insistently in Pakistani forces experienced significant successes the direction of accession of Kashmir to Pakistan. in the opening days of the conflict as they were able But, Neutral Observer, a member of the team of UN to take Dommel on the first day and overpowered a Representatives for India and Pakistan observed that, Kashmiri government battalion at Muzaffarabad by “The State of Jammu and Kashmir is not really a unit October 23. On October 26, 1947, after four days, demographically or economically. It is agglomeration they were in the vicinity of Srinagar. The Dogra Army of territories brought under the political power of one seemed to have been beaten. The Maharaja had Maharajah. That is the unity it possesses.This already fled his capital, Srinagar, to seek the statement backs India’s legalistic claim for Kashmir, comparative safety of Jammu. based on the politico strategic position of Kashmir and economic aid and development by India. Tribal and Pakistani forces met fierce resistance at Uri, where Kashmiri government forces, Indian leadership wants to accept the despite the desertion of many of its Muslim troops, changed context in Kashmir, the Chinese military were able to delay the Pakistani forces for two days threat from across the border, the build-up of the until it was destroyed. Retreating Kashmiri forces armed strength of Pakistan by the West, the internal were able to destroy a key bridge thus delaying pressures in India and Pakistan and economic Pakistani forces for an additional day. Pakistani progress achieved by Kashmir as a part of the Indian efforts to the south in the Jammu region were less Union. Indian leadership also affirms that the Kashmir successful as Pakistani forces faced significant constituent assembly and the subsequent election have resistance and were prevented from gaining most of confirmed the Maharajah’s decision to join India and the towns and locations that Pakistan attempted to secondly, the continued association and interaction capture. of the state as an integral part of the Indian Union is to be taken into consideration while looking at Following the fall of Uri Pakistani and tribal Kashmir as an issue, problem or anything for that forces took Baramulla and began to march on matter. Srinagar. The Pakistani-backed forces were able to damage an important power station, located in According to Pakistan, Kashmir is the most Mahura that supplied electricity to Srinagar. In the explosive dispute between India and Pakistan. In the following days the invading forces were able to get words of Z.A.Bhutto: “One can’t divorce Kashmir within a few miles of the air Pakistani-backed forces from India and Pakistan relations.” Since had faced opposition only from the Kashmiri independence Kashmir has been a problem in the bi- government forces till this time. The Maharaja faced lateral relations of India and Pakistan. There were with overwhelming odds and near certain defeat, three major wars between these two countries. But asked India for military support. India agreed to help the problem of Kashmir is still an unsolved issue. The provided that Kashmir acceded to India and that the following is a brief description of the wars fought Prime Minister of Kashmir agreed to the accession. between India and Pakistan. Both the Maharaja and the Prime Minister agreed to

84 World Focus March 2018 these terms and on October 26 the Maharaja signed even the people who inhabit this area are not allowed the Instrument of Accession. to have any say in any matter. Thirdly, Pakistan has not withdrawn her troops from certain disputed areas; The liberation of Jammu and Kashmir from apart from that it has built up the strength of its Armed the tribal raiders supported by the Pakistan Army was Forces and military bases in Azad Kashmir in violation a remarkable feet achieved by the Indian Army under of the UN Commission for India & Pakistan extremely difficult circumstances. The operations (UNCIP’S) resolutions. Fourthly Pakistan has were mostly planned and led by Indian officers at a miserably failed to create a peaceful atmosphere and time when a new nation was in its nascent stages of in fact, it has been encouraging lawlessness in the formation. This would provide them with tremendous state. Finally, Pakistan continues to light with India experience and confidence in organising the Indian and sends ‘mujahids’ across the border. According Army later. The invasion of J&K posed the first major to Pakistan, India violated the U.N. resolution when challenge to the Indian Army immediately after the government of India integrated Jammu and achieving Independence. The Army not only stood Kashmir into the Indian union, through a process of up to this challenge but the high standards of training, consensus and peace. Pakistan holds the view that valour and sacrifice displayed by the men helped in India has been following the same in the state of maintaining its reputation of being one of the finest Jammu and Kashmir since its inception into India; fighting forces of the world. secondly, India has rejected all U.N. suggestions for parallel demilitarization. Pakistan says that India has The US became involved in the Kashmir issue built up her military strength in Kashmir on the pretext since the US wanted to settle the problem peacefully. of imaginary threats from China. Thirdly, India has It wanted to maintain friendly relations, both with India refused arbitration on issues and problems in regard and Pakistan. It called upon both the parties to solve the to Kashmir. Finally, to Pakistan, India has withdrawn issue amicably. Warren Austin, the American from the international commitment of a plebiscite she representative, explaining the US policy on Kashmir in had accepted at the United Nations. the UN Security Council on 4 February 1948, stated that the sovereignty of Kashmir no longer vested with It was thought that the situation might change the Maharaja but was vested in India and exercised by when Field Marshal Ayub Khan became the President it and therefore India petitioned the UN Security Council of Pakistan in 1958. He met Prime Minister Nehru as Pakistan illegally entered Kashmir. Further, the United twice in 1960 and discussed the Kashmir issue. When Nations Council on India Pakistan (UNCIP) submitted Pakistan lost all hopes of solving the Kashmir issue, a draft resolution to the Council on 13 August 1948 on Pakistan Government decided to receive the help of its own. India felt unhappy with this resolution, as the the U.S. and in this connection, President Ayub visited Council did not criticize Pakistan for its aggression on there in July 1961. The joint communique issued after Kashmir. It called upon both the parties on 17 January the visit, “affirmed the desire of the U.S. to see a 1948 to cease hostilities. The US considered Kashmir satisfactory solution of the Kashmir issue.”In the year as a disputed territory and did not justify the accession 1962, Pakistan’s representative Zafrulla Khan in a of Kashmir to India. The US opined that Kashmir should letter to the Security Council President said that there become either a part of Pakistan or India, and were was a grave threat to peace and tranquillity in Kashmir reluctant to recognise it as an independent State. In fact, region due to the, “recent pronouncements by Sheikh Abdullah, the Prime Minister of Jammu and responsible personalities in India have emphasized Kashmir (1948-1953), went to the UN Security Council that the situation has changed with utmost gravity.” in 1948 as an Indian representative to discuss the issue. Indian representative C.S. Jha appealed to the President of the Security Council to postpone the issue Indian leadership feels that Pakistan had until the new government came to the center after violated the U.N. when she sent her troops to the general elections. Kashmir. Moreover, Pakistan’s efforts to integrate Azad Kashmir with Pakistan and treat Azad Kashmir Relations between India and Pakistan further as Pakistani territory violate the U.N resolutions and deteriorated after the China-India war of 1962, which

Kashmir - A Centre of India-Pakistan Dispute: Needs Balanced Solution 85 drastically changed the situation in the sub-continent, creating trouble, the Pakistan government extended due to the defeat of India in the war. The Indo - U.S. full support to them. However, Pakistan denied her relations began to improve and the Sino-Pak ties hand in the Kashmir trouble. When India defended became further strengthened. Again direct herself and sealed the borders of Kashmir, Malaysia consultations and debates on Kashmir began to take moved a resolution in the Security Council on 4 place between India and Pakistan at the ministerial September, supported by Bolivia, Ivory Coast, Jordan, level. From December 1962 to May 1963, there took The Netherlands and Uruguay. She suggested an place six rounds of talks. Meanwhile, on 2 March immediate ceasefire in Kashmir without naming 1963, the Sino - Pak Agreement was signed in Peking Pakistan as an aggressor and treated both the by the Foreign Ministers of China and Pakistan. The countries at par. The resolution and the efforts made Indian government strongly condemned the by these countries could not bring about a ceasefire agreement. In 2nd March 1963, in a protest to China, in the region. When no response came to Pakistani New Delhi described it as an act of direct interference infiltrators from the Kashmiri people, she mounted a by Peking government in Indo-Pak relations. The massive attack on Chhamb crossing the international agreement symbolized the Peking governments desire border. For the purpose of relieving pressure on to exploit the differences between India and Pakistan Chhamb, India went for a three-pronged attack in on the issue of Kashmir. The Indian government Lahore sector on 5th September and in Sialkot sector accused the Chinese government for trying to destroy a day later. Surprised by this development, the the friendship, which had been developing between Malaysian government’s representative moved a the two countries on Kashmir and other related resolution in the Security Council, asking for Pakistan matters. and India to stop conflict and withdrew their troops to the position held by them before 5 August 1965. Indo Pak war of 1965 Rann of Kutch is located between India’s western State It was a calculated move by Pakistan to grab of Gujarat and the Sind region of western Pakistan along Kashmir by force, but Pakistan failed miserably. the Arabian Sea coast. In early April 1965, Pakistan Kashmir is not an issue in Indo-Pak relations. The claimed that since the Rann of Kutch (consisting 8,400 issue is created by Pakistan. There are certain criteria, sq. miles of land) remains under water for about half of which make a region an integral part of a nation- the year, the boundary line between India and Pakistan state. The creation of a nation state is a recent must be drawn through the middle of the Rann. India development in history. The founding fathers of India rejected Pakistan’s demand and claimed the Rann to be while creating the Indian Nation State, had to face a under its control. Ayub wanted to try the American number of problems, but no region, except Jammu weapons and to see the performance of his soldier and Kashmir, evokes criticism. As it is, the dispute trained in the new techniques of fighting. The mini over its integration with the rest of India is of great war had convinced Ayub that the Pakistani soldiers concern to many of our compatriots. There are two were superior to their Indian counterparts and he ways by which a particular state is made a part of thought that in a major war, India could be defeated the nation-State. One is by way of consent, which is by Pakistan. Pakistan government also felt that the essentially the foundation of democratic polity. The U.S.S.R., India’s main sympathizer would remain other is by way of conquest. And quite a few leaders neutral. The visit of Ayub to Moscow, in the second in different times and climates have accepted this week of April, can be linked with the developments method. But once hitherto independent state joins in Kutch. It is said that, through his visit Ayub wanted another nation-state to become a part of the latter to weaken the Soviet sympathy for India. with the consent of the existing government or with the consent of the people, the integration of that Consequently, a war started between them in province or erstwhile independent entity is final. This August 1965. Pakistan sent a number of so called does not of course, mean that there may not emerge freedom fighters to the Indian side of Kashmir and further disputes over the same question at a later they were asked to investigate the people of Kashmir point of time. against India. While the Kashmiris were indulging in

86 World Focus March 2018 Tashkent Declaration a result of this, P.N. Ojha of the Indian Deputy The Tashkent declaration signed in January 1966 was Commission, Dhaka was expelled for his involvement an effort to solve the Indo-Pak problems that came in the case. A special Tribunal was set up to try the up out of the August - September 1965 war. The so-called conspirators Pakistan government said that Conference at Tashkent was organized on the initiative the plot involved and armed revolt with weapons of the Soviet Premier Kosygin. He invited President supplied by India. Those arrested were said to have Ayub Khan and Prime Minister Shastri to meet in the planned the establishment of an independent Soviet Union for diffusing the tensions between India government in East Pakistan with the protection of and Pakistan. On 4 September 1965 Kosygen wrote India. The supply of arms was discussed at Agartala identical letters to India and Pakistan: ‘Acting in the across the East Pakistan Frontier on 12th July 1967. spirit of the U.N. Charter and the Bandung principles,’ The plan called for the enlisting of recruits, security the letter stated: ‘the parties should enter into the negotiations of the peaceful settlements of the Farrakka Barrage differences have arisen between them. For saving the port of Calcutta from being choked up, the Indian government planned a barrage; at Indo-Pak War 1971 Farakka - Murshidabad district in West Bengal across The Tashkent declaration could not create normal the Ganga River The main motive behind the relations between India and Pakistan. Hence another construction of the barrage was flush out silt, which war was waged between the two countries in 1971. used to enter the Calcutta Port throughout the year There were several reasons, which led to the decline and to stop certain developments that have threatened of the atmosphere of the sub-continent and finally, the existence of the port. The Pakistan government made the two countries to indulge in war. The relations suggested India in the year 1951 that India should between two countries are based on the atmosphere consult Pakistan before going for such a step. On the and the environment of the policies being shaped by other hand, India did not agree with Pakistan and the respective countries. In this context, domestic saying that Indian government will make use of conditions play a predominant role in shaping their advisory and technical services of the United Nations. attitudes. India and Pakistan are no exception to it. Pakistan government pleaded that building the barrage Pakistan’s Muslim League could not maintain an at Farrakka was a great challenge to the security effective control of the centre and provinces of and sovereignty of Pakistan and it would further lead Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan Government could not to the stoppage of irrigation projects of East Pakistan. maintain a stable civil government in spite of the fact The first general elections were held in Pakistan in that the party had overwhelming control of the December 1970. After the elections were over, there legislative seats. It is said that Muslim League would took place a serious power struggle between the have become powerful if Mohammed Ali Jinnah and Awami League; India the Pakistan’s People Party. Liaquat Ali Khan had not died immediately after The Awami League got sweeping victory in East independence. It was felt that in South Asia Pakistan Pakistan and the PPP got good majority in West could not establish a powerful civil polity as every Pakistan. The victory of Awami League threatened time due to one reason or the other, the Pakistan the power progression of West Pakistan Military and military took over so easily from the civil government. also the economic benefits that used to come from Pakistan has no right to interfere in the internal affairs East Pakistan, The struggle finally led to a war in of India. According to K. Francis,a well known December 1971 between India and Pakistan and researcher in Kashmir, the modern empire building emergence of independent sovereign Bangladesh. process is called the nation states and nation means This aggravated the Indo-Pak relationship very much. nationality. The civil war which broke out in Pakistan Agartala conspiracy case after the declaration of independence of East Pakistan Ayub khan government implicated some Indian and the atrocities committed by the Pakistan army officers and some leaders of East Pakistan in a on the civil population of East Pakistan awakened conspiracy known as Agartala Conspiracy Case. As the people all over the world. A lot of refugees from

Kashmir - A Centre of India-Pakistan Dispute: Needs Balanced Solution 87 East Pakistan began to reach India, leading to the negotiations that apparently made some headway on creation of serious problem and threat for India’s key issues, particularly Kashmir. But the 26/11 developing economy and the Indian social structure. Mumbai attacks in 2008 again saw relations slide India decided to adopt a very careful approach to the back. Then in 2011, there was an agreement to crisis leads to Pakistan and the then Prime Minister resume the dialogue, which saw some progress being Indira Gandhi assured that India would not close her made on trade and visa related issues before the borders with Pakistan. She further stated that India recent crisis saw relations worsen. would render humanitarian assistance to the refugees who might come to India. Finally, Indian military, on To sum up, India and Pakistan have moved the initiative and the decision of the government of from fighting, to fighting and then talking to talking. India began to directly support the Mukti Bahini The tensions created on the issue of Kashmir still which was fighting for the separation of East Pakistan continue and it became the base of Indo-Pak Peace from the West. Process in India. The peace process continued under the Vajpayee Government and the UPA government The Tashkent declaration could not reduce have been studied separately in the following chapters. the prevailing tension between India and Pakistan. The 1971 war between India and Pakistan created UPA-I 2004-2008 more animosity between the two countries, apart from Around 15 rounds of negotiations were carried by bringing about many problems. For normalizing the initially National Security Adviser J.N. Dixit on the relations between the two countries, a conference one side and President Musharraf’s aide Tariq Aziz was held in Simla after the 1971 war. This was on the other. Following Mr. Dixit’s demise in 2005 his another effort to bridge the gulf between the two position was taken over by Special Envoy Satinder countries.The militarily defeated Pakistan and the Lambah. These negotiations which were carried emergence of Bangladesh changed the inter-regional between 2005 and 2007 evidently flowed from context in which the Indo-Pakistan’s relation had been proposals articulated by President Musharraf and carried out between 1947 and 1971. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. President Musharraf proposed that: Tensions escalated again in the Eighties 1. J&K should be divided into seven regions. between the two countries over possible Indian strikes 2.There should be a process of “demilitarization” in against Pakistan’s growing nuclear capabilities and identified regions. He subsequently asked for the India taking control of dominating positions on the withdrawal of Indian forces from three urban centres- Siachen glacier. The decade ended with a spiralling Srinagar, Kupwara and Baramulla. of violence in Kashmir that India accused Pakistan 3.India and Pakistan should agree to “Joint of instigating. Apart from the 1990 crisis that I talked Management” of the State. He did not specify of earlier, the Nineties saw major upheavals with the whether “Joint Management” would equally apply two countries overtly demonstrating their nuclear to POK and the Northern Areas. capabilities by defiantly testing devices in the summer of 1998. That was followed by a dramatic new hope Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in turn, outlined his for peace with the Lahore Declaration in February vision on how to move forward in resolving the issue 1999 which formalised the composite dialogue of Jammu and Kashmir on March 24, 2006, process, only to be shattered soon after by the Kargil highlighting the following points. War that pushed relations back to square one. War 1.Borders cannot be redrawn but we can move clouds loomed again in the sub-continent at the dawn towards making them irrelevant-towards making of the new century after the 2001 attack on the Indian them “just lines on a map”. Parliament by terrorists that had links with Pakistan. 2.People on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) There was a tense standoff between the two armies should be able to move freely and trade with each for close to two years till an agreement was reached other. to restart the dialogue process in 2004. That was 3.A situation can be envisaged where the two parts followed by a flurry of talks, including back-channel of Jammu and Kashmir can, with active

88 World Focus March 2018 encouragement from the Governments of India and  Establishment of a Communication Link between Pakistan, work out cooperative and consultative Pakistan Maritime Security Agency and Indian Coast mechanisms, so as to maximize the gains of Guard - brought into effect in 2005, primarily to cooperation in solving problems of social and facilitate early exchange of information regarding economic development of the region. fishermen apprehended for straying into each other’s waters; Responding to General Musharraf’s proposal  Humanitarian aid in terms of food, medicine and for “demilitarization,” India had indicated its readiness etc., was extended by India and accepted by Pakistan, to reduce and redeploy forces in Jammu and Kashmir in the aftermath of the earthquake in Pakistan on a reciprocal basis, once it is reassured that there Administered Kashmir in 2005; is an irrevocable end to infiltration across the Line of  A Joint Anti-Terrorism Institutional Mechanism to Control. There also appears to have been identify and implement counter-terrorism initiatives understanding on the need for mechanisms and and investigations in both the countries was brought institutions to promote cooperation in areas like trade, into effect in 2006; travel, tourism, education, health, environment and  An agreement facilitating regular contact between water resources.There should be “self-governance” state-run think tanks, Institute of Defence Studies in Jammu and Kashmir. He did not indicate whether and Analyses (New Delhi), and Institute of this would be equally applicable to Pakistan Occupied Strategic Studies (Islamabad) was brought into being Kashmir and the Northern Areas of J&K, under in 2008. This agreement is meant to contribute to Pakistan’s control. building channels of communication at the level of scholars; The following is a list of the agreements reached as  The first meeting of a Joint Judicial Committee of a part of confidence building measures between the judges belonging to both countries was conducted in two countries. 2008. This committee is meant to look into the welfare 1.Joint Economic Commissions and Joint Business and release of prisoners jailed in both countries. More Councils were reactivated in 2004; than 500 prisoners have been released by both sides 2.The first bus service between Srinagar and in repeated instances in 2003,2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 Muzaffarabad was started in 2005; and 2009; 3.Bus services from Lahore to Amritsar, Amritsar to  Foreign Ministers of both countries agreed to a series Nankana Sahib and train links between Munabao in of Kashmir-specific CBMs to facilitate crossing the Rajasthan and Khokhrapar in Sindh were started in LoC in 2008. A new dimension was added to Indo- 2006; Pak trade relationship with the revival of cross- LoC 4.The Samjhauta Express, which runs between Delhi trade in October 2008; and Lahore, resumed service in 2005, and despite  Both countries agreed to host festivals displaying the 2007 blasts, has continued to run since; each other’s movies in 2006. The Pakistani 5.The first overland truck route between the two Government allowed for the legal release of Indian countries was opened at the Wagah border crossing films in Pakistan in 2008. in 2007; 6.Air links were increased from 12 to 28 flights UPA Government- 2nd Term-2009 weekly, triple-entry permit for cross-LoC travel In the Indian General Election in 2009, the UPA won introduced and the frequency of the Srinagar- a convincing 262 seats with the Indian National Muzaffarabad bus service increased from fortnightly Congress alone winning 206 seats. The UPA has to weekly, in 2008; formed a stable majority government. All inclusive 7.Agreement on Advance Notification of Ballistic and populist policies along with a younger leadership Missile Tests - brought into effect in 2005 and required have been credited for this. UPA won the general both parties to inform the other 72 hours in advance elections with the Congress winning 206 seats, 61 before testing any ballistic missiles within a 40 km seats more than the 2004 election tally. The pre-poll radius of the International Border and the Line of coalition of UPA, which did not include Lalu Yadav’s Control; RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP and Mulayam Singh

Kashmir - A Centre of India-Pakistan Dispute: Needs Balanced Solution 89 Yadav’s SP, won 262 seats, and needed the support Taiba(LeT) and Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD) and Hafiz of 10 MPs to get a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. Muhammad Saeed. The other issue discussed was Manmohan Singh continued to be the Prime Minister Pakistan’s concern about Indian presence in and in doing so became only the second Prime Afghanistan, and the Indian stand was clarified by Minister of India after Jawahar Lal Nehru to return making it related to the developmental works in to power after a full five year term in office. RJD, Afghanistan. India, however, made it clear that SP, BSP, JD (S) and other smaller parties and attacks on Indian assets could not be allowed to independents provide external support to the continue as it affected relations between New Delhi government. and Islamabad. The Islamabad talks, though not very substantial but not merely “exploratory” as both sides On the sidelines of Nuclear Security meeting tried to “understand each others’ position”. in April 2010, there were no meetings between the two countries, but India made it clear that it will only A meeting between Indian Home Minister resume talks if Pakistan takes actions against Mr. P. Chidambaram and his Pakistani counterpart Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and perpetrators of 26/11 Mr. Rahman Malik took place on June 25, 2010 terror attacks. SAARC Home Ministers’ Meet, Islamabad. Mr P. On the completion of one year of the second Chidambaram was the first Indian Minister to visit term of the UPA government on May 25, 2010, while Pakistan in three decades where he was accorded a producing the ‘report card’ of the government’s red carpet welcome and a ceremonial Guard of performance in a press meet, Manmohan Singh stated Honour. He pressed for action against JuD Chief that Indo-Pak relation was suffering from ‘trust- Hafiz Saeed and the handlers of the 26/11 terrorists deficit’ and reducing this ‘trust-deficit’ was essential including those who are believed to be in the Pak to improve their relations. army. Chidambaram is believed to have sought voice On 24th June 2010 another round of talks was samples of the Pak handlers and raised issues such planned which was thought to be aiming at reducing as infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir also UPA II, this ‘trust-deficit’ and as advocated by India, to find with 2013 witnessed the worst in the Indo-Pak peace “creative Solutions” on Jammu and Kashmir and other process. The year began with Pakistan’s beheading issues to build on the progress made earlier through of an Indian soldier, which ended the composite the Composite Dialogue and back channel diplomacy. dialogue process. The peace-process is complicated and determined by the terrorist activities of Muslim But before the June 2010 Indo-Pak talks, both separatist groups working in Jammu and Kashmir. countries got engaged in another major dispute. Both As long as this terrorism is not removed totally peace got set to fight a legal battle over Kishenganga power between the two countries is a distant dream. 2014 project under construction in Jammu and Kashmir in will witness another General Election soon. It depends an 330MW hydropower plant on Kishenganga, a upon the nation’s verdict whether there will be a tributary of the Jhelum under the 1960 Indus Water change in the government. There is no doubt that Treaty. Uneasiness arose just before June 24, 2010 India is optimistic of the better relations between India when Pakistani troops fired on Indian positions on and Pakistan in the coming years. It is obvious that the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir killing 2 any government which come to power give top priority civilians and injuring 2 jawans. However, India made to Indo-Pak peace process. The continuous and it clear that it will focus on cross-border terrorism cautious efforts of the heads of the nation are and would adopt “an exploratory approach” to work necessary for bringing peace into the sub-continent out steps to reduce post Mumbai attack trust deficit which is necessary for the betterment of both the between the two countries. The June 24, 2010, talks nations. of Islamabad were positive. Though there was no breakthrough, a positive step towards bridging the NDA-Modi Era trust deficit between the two countries was made. After much trial and error, Indian Prime Minister During the talks, India raised the ‘core concern of Narendra Modi is preparing for a formal and terrorism’ including the activities of the Lashkar-e- structured engagement with Pakistan in early 2016.

90 World Focus March 2018 Modi had previously pulled back, barely three months Pakistan. Instead of suspending the peace process in after his outreach to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz a huff, Modi ordered restraint on the part of his senior Sharif in 2014 following his election. But he embarked political colleagues and officials and was willing to on a sustained effort to engage Sharif in the second wait to see how Pakistan would respond. half of 2015. Following meetings between the national security advisers and foreign ministers in early Islamabad, for its part, went beyond a routine December 2015, the two sides announced the condemnation of the terrorist attack, offering to follow resumption of dialogue. Now named the up on the leads provided by New Delhi and investigate Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue, it covers ten the incident. Sharif picked up the phone and talked to themes, including Kashmir, terrorism, trade, and Modi, and Pakistan’s national security adviser, humanitarian issues. Modi topped that rapid diplomatic Lieutenant General Nasir Khan Janjua, spoke with maneuver with the surprising decision to land in his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval. As India waits for Lahore, on very short notice, on Christmas Day, substantive Paksitani action against the plotters of receiving a warm welcome from Sharif. Although the Pathankot attack, it has agreed to continue the the visit did not involve formal talks, it demonstrated conversation between the two foreign secretaries Modi’s commitment to the peace process and his about organizing the Comprehensive Bilateral willingness to take big political risks in the pursuit of Dialogue in the spring and summer of 2016. The a normal relationship with Pakistan. Never a dialogue in turn is expected to generate sufficient comfortable relationship, India’s ties with Pakistan momentum to make a success of Modi’s visit to entered a very volatile phase in the late 1980s— Pakistan later in the year when he attends a summit marked by the introduction of nuclear weapons, of the subcontinent’s regional forum—the South Asian frequent military crises, cross-border terrorism, and Association for Regional Cooperation. Although the the intensification of the dispute over Jammu and recent track record of India’s negotiations with Kashmir. Repeated efforts by New Delhi to develop Pakistan does not generate much hope, Modi may a neighbourly relationship with Pakistan through have a rare opportunity to reorganize the nature of sustained engagement have been unsuccessful. India’s engagement with Pakistan. Modi needs more Tantalizing moments of hope for major agreements diplomatic assistance and sincere efforts to address have been rudely shattered by major terrorist the issues relating to Kashmir’s domestic affairs incidents. Suspending talks after every such episode, which may lead to the address of Pakistan New Delhi has eventually returned to the negotiating involvement in Kashmir as well as Indian affairs. table each time, recognizing that avoiding talking to Islamabad did not in any way ease India’s problems References with cross-border terrorism. The tension between the B.Raman, Mumbai 26/11: A Day of Infamy, Lancer Publishers and Distributors, New Delhi, 2013. imperative of normalizing relations with Pakistan and Bhabani Sen Gupta and Amit Gupla, Changing Patterns of Regional Conflicts in South Asia. Also in, Bhabani Sen Gupta (ed.), Regional Cooperation and the difficulty of finding a way forward has been the Development in South Asia, Vol. l(New Delhi: Soulh Asian Publishers, 1986) dominant motif of India’s dialogue with the country Gupta, Kashmir: A Study in India-Pakistan Relations, Bombay: Asia Publishing House, 1967 for nearly three decades. The terrorist attack on G. Parthasarathy, “Track 2 and Back Channel Diplomacy in India-Pakistan India’s Pathankot air base on January 2, 2016, by a Relations”, December 24, 2010 Hugh Tinker, India and Pakistan: A Political Analysis, London: Pail Mall militant suicide squad that had come across the Press, 1967, Indra Nath Mukherji,”Transiting from SAPTA to SAFTA: Challenges and Opportunities for India in Annapurna Nautiyal (ed.) Challenges to India’s Pakistan border seemed to suggest nothing had Foreign Policy in the New Era, Gyan Publishing House, New Delhi, 2008. changed. For many, it was a predictable turn of Janki Sinha. Pakistan and the Indo-US relations, Associated Book Agency. Patna, 1978. events. Spoilers in Pakistan have repeatedly sabotaged K Bhushan and G.Katyal, Manmohan Singh: Visionary to Certainty, APH efforts by the political leadership to find a way out of Publishing, 2004, New York Times, 14 July 1961. O.P. Gupta, Rise and Fall of Vajpayee Government, Mittal Publications, New the extended stasis in bilateral relations. What was Delhi, 2004Rajendra Sareen, “South Asia: Indo Pakistan Relations- A Case not predictable, however, were the reactions in New Study,” South Asian Review, Vol. 1, No. 1, March 1976, p.108 Rohit Singh, “Operations in Jammu and Kashmir”, Scholar Warrior, Autumn Delhi and Islamabad to the Pathankot attack. Modi 2012, pp.156-57. S.S. Bindra, Indo-Pak Relation - Tashkent to Simla Agreement (New Delhi: did not respond with what would have previously been Deep and Deep Publication, 1981) p. 26. personal anger and pique at the Pathankot events, Sujata K. Dass, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Kalpaz Publications, 2004 V. Krishna Iyer, “Statesmanship, the need of the Hour”, The Hindu, editorial, barely a week after his bold Christmas overture to May 2009. Washington Times July 14. Kashmir - A Centre of India-Pakistan Dispute: Needs Balanced Solution 91 Media discourse on Kashmir: Dissonance in Public Understanding of Indo-Pak Relations Mr. Satvik N. and Dr. Madhumati Deshpande

News media known as the fourth estate of Table 1: The Division of Kashmiri Identity democracy has been considered as one of the Nation Area under Control Combined Kashmir of important pillars of domestic policy making. It Indian Demand (CKID) provides information and becomes the harbinger of Indian Administered Kashmir Valley CKID- Valley Kashmir (IAK) Ladakh CKID- Johnson-Ardagh (J-A) public opinion that the policy makers cannot afford Siachen Glacier CKID- Siachen to ignore. The impact of media on foreign policy Jammu CKID- Dogra’s (dynasty) making is however a little more indirect as the policy Pakistan Administered Gilgit-Baltistan CKID- GB (PoK)* making here can not be dependant only on pubic Kashmir (PAK) Azad Jammu and Kashmir CKID- AJK (PoK)* opinion. Nevertheless, an informed public opinion can Chinese Administered Shaksgam CKID- Shaksgam (PoK)** Kashmir (CAK) Aksai Chin CKID- J-A Aksai Chin** shape the political events and understanding of the foreign relations. Although there isn’t much research The (*) and (**) denotes combined PAK & CAK, done in this particular area, several scholars have respectively, but separated for the purpose of distinct opined that policy makers need to pay attention to area reporting in Media discourse. Aksai Chin was media discourses as it can either whip up nationalistic part of Kashmir’s Ladakh territory according to fervour or incite sentiments against the policies and Johnson-Ardagh line, 1865. PoK signifies Pakistan the policy makers. The paper looks in to this particular occupied Kashmir. aspect of media discourse on Kashmir and its effect on the people of India and Pakistan including While India asserts the finality of the Kashmiris. Instrument of Accession (IoA) signed by the then princely state of Kashmir in firmly avowing Kashmir India and Pakistani Government position on as part of Unified Indian Sovereignty, Pakistan Kashmir continues to question the legality of the agreement The India-Pakistan border conflict saw its advent post- signed by the then Maharaja of Kashmir, Hari Singh Independence with the partition of the Indian sub- (Hussain, 1998). Thus both of them include provisions continent to the eponymous Nations. The newly for the State of Kashmir as part of their Constitution. created nations fought its first of the four major The customary constitutional principles that govern a subsequent wars soon after partition claiming sovereign republic hence prove redundant in finding territorial control over the Princely State of Kashmir. a suitable way to govern the combined land of This brutal war led to an UN mediated ceasefire line Kashmir. The State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) dividing the Indian acceded Kashmir in 1949. The across the Line of Control (LOC) is the self-governing ceasefire line re-entitled the Line of Control (LoC) Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and is referred by in the 1972 Simla Agreement between the leaders of the Indian media as Pakistan occupied Kashmir the respective Democratic Governments, mutually (POK) which provisionally includes the semi- aimed at durable peace along the de facto border autonomous region of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and and resolving bilaterally the Jammu and Kashmir Shaksgam, but though not a necessary referent in all dispute in posterity between the two nations. contexts. In the case of Jammu & Kashmir, the State enjoys special status under Article 370 of the Indian As of present, the erstwhile Kashmiri State constitution and autonomy in many respects. The is divided and administered non-consensually by three Pakistani media and the Government of Pakistan’s independent powers with no single power agreeing official webpage nominally denote it as Indian Held to give up its control over the territory or initiate a Kashmir (IHK). The citizens of AJK and GB have mutual accord – 92 World Focus March 2018 Pakistani National Identity Cards (CNICs) and media. Media is the medium between State and the passports though not exclusively recognized by larger public sensibilities in status & Identity Pakistani as its Citizens. The official map of India construction and rational individual skepticism. The proves otherwise where all individuals of Pakistan progresses in both the nations, be the discontinued occupied Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK) are natural Manmohan-Musharaff four point formula that aimed citizens of India though it controls only about 46% of to dissolve the significance of LOC by making it a the original J&K State. Hence, Jammu and Kashmir porous border in a gradually demilitarized, self- have many kinds of media and political make-ups. governed Kashmir overseen by a joint alliance of Indian, Pakistani and Kashmiri representatives or the The two divergent definitions of Kashmir, i.e., prevention of ceasefire violations along the LOC for Pakistan as a ‘disputed territory’ and an through Tier I military diplomacy highlights the agenda ‘unfinished agenda’ of Partition and for India, the of the respective Governments in not furthering the finality of accession with the challenge of addressing conflict according to territorial claims. cross border terrorism (Misra, 2005), leaves no scope for a solution, unless India and Pakistan endeavor to In the Policy Priority Security Systems merge the two discourses. The nationalistic perception (P2S2) between the respective Governments of India of the dispute in the resurgent post-colonial and Pakistan, bilateral issues can only be resolved by consciousness of India and Pakistan where religion diplomacy. But both the parties, i.e., India and Pakistan preceded language and ethnicity has been lost in the have not officiated their stand on the Kashmiri subsequent construction of community Identity and territory with a mutual consensus that could help the shaping Individual sensibilities in the idea of Kashmir Kashmiris, be those in PoK or IHK, and therefore, (Pervez, 2012) which the current media discourse are continued to be represented negatively. The fails to mention. The vehement support to Kashmir present Kashmir that these outfits demand has after in the continuous Flashbulb Memory (FBM) of the 70 years of Independence been reduced to Indian public’s daily news cycle has set the agenda and tone controlled Kashmir Valley and the Pakistan for reporting that misses the concerned realities. In administered Azad Kashmir region. Media encoding/decoding, Stuart Hall suggests that all classification of conflict area dynamics and persistent messages have innate meaning that the sender nomenclature denotation in the social discourse poses predetermines but may be lost on the viewer due to an inconspicuous threat (Greco, 2012) by the uncritical consequential notions and exceptionally vivid endorsement of the wrong kind of narrative. The ‘snapshot’ from past. The media ethics of fair Destabilizing factor of cross border terrorism and reporting should not encode preferred meanings in a separatist movements has also become hindrance for text that limits alternate (or resistive) readings and the Governments goal of curbing Human Rights understandings of a represented subject (Hall, 1980) Violation across the LoC & to have persistent and in the collective consciousness of a discernible evolving negotiations on coherent policy objectives community (Anderson, 1991). from both sides.

The policy priorities of the leaders of India While the ethno-nationalism in Kashmir is and Pakistan, be it the 1999 Lahore Declaration or considered to be an internal matter concern of Indian the 2001 Agra Summit for goodwill and cooperation security, it contradicts the nature of the dispute where seeking, tend towards deescalating the current a part of Indian Territory has been under Pakistani situation by preserving peace along the LoC and being control since 1948 (and under the territorial expanse able to grant rights to the people living on either side. of Chinese imperial policy since the 1962 war and Media here forms the main line of communication 1963 Sino-Pakistan agreement that led to consensual for the public in various positive and negative cessation of land in Shaksgam region between the developments between India and Pakistan. The signatories) but the essence of current bi-lateral talks coherence of a citizen’s realization on the reality of has no clear state-agenda in the public and policy events in the ground level scenario is bridged through perspective. Even though elections are held in both the narrative presented in their respective nation’s the administered territories and regional & national

Media discourse on Kashmir: Dissonance in Public Understanding of Indo-Pak Relations 93 political parties from the respective nations contest Valley, where, ironically, most people appear in it, the conventional usage of IHK, i.e., Indian Held uninterested in joining either nation but it is the only Kashmir, in Pakistani media in reference to IAK, that region of contestation in J&K. Narratives enable has a State assembly and Indian recognized citizens, perception. The political discourse and the media is an aspiration that denies progress to a righteous reporting are interlinked in their narrative. But media solution. In a similar vein, denoting Pakistan still has differences in their expression of political administered regions of Kashmir as ‘occupied’ or facts. While both the Indian Administered Kashmir ‘enemy’ territories in the Indian Media while and the Pakistan administered Azad Kashmir and G- completely disregarding the Chinese controlled B have their own administrative systems, the media expanse of Kashmir with no such analogous language still refer to them as occupied/held territories in the ‘use’ highlights the political and the post-colonial current affairs reporting maintaining political status- agenda-setting of the dispute that still continues today quo than investigating the actual ground realities and while no overtures have been made by any Indian the civilian dynamics in the region. government in the last 70 years to regain the lost territories of Kashmir from China or from Pakistan Even a plausible solution of granting other than the 1994 Parliamentary Declaration that demilitarized autonomy to Pakistan’s idea of United only considered Indian claim over Pakistan’s occupied Jammu and Kashmir is not seen as a viable discourse regions of Kashmir. to the dispute. This not only impedes the future consensus for any common goal or solution to the Media classification of State dispute region, but may also antagonise the people of both The medium of newspapers, TV, and the new media the nations towards consensual resolution. The India- are not just platforms of information but are also the Pakistan Border Ground Rules, 1960-61 (MEA, 1960), ‘influencers’ of public opinion and through that, nudge which is supposed to be taken as the basis of the the government to adopt, reject, or modify a chosen management of the International Border till new rules policy direction (Joshi, 2015). Here Individual Political are finalised has not been signed by the two Identity is constructed as a subject of external governments. It is not even considered as a settled discoursei and not by being the “object” of the dispute. IB in Jammu sector by Pakistan. While India officially keeps in line with the Shimla Agreement of 1972 (the Thus, one’s ‘determination of the ethical current LoC), Pakistan continues to fall back to the substance’ for moral conducts as such “must not be 1949 Karachi Agreement (the Ceasefire Line) and reducible to an act or a series of acts conforming to a the many UN resolutions ostentatiously seeking the rule, a law, or a value” (Foucault, 1992). Further, the Kashmiri people’s right to self-determination. State regulation on complex information flows across borders with regard to uniformity of maps and A Freedom House report in 2015 describes administration due to civilian and national security the mass media in the Indian administered Kashmir concerns and the comparative check on incomplete as thriving with many emerging online platforms and (re: post-truth) media narratives due to absence of a private FM station that is popular in rural areas. resilient government stand has diluted the views However restricted movement, censorship or presented in the mainstream for public. Though, detention limits information flow and the Journalists Christopher Snedden in his book Kashmir: The right to report unabashedly. According to a 2017 report Unwritten History claims that India does not want by International Federation of Journalists (IFJ), the to obtain the Muslim dominant Azad Kashmir or the journalists who are living in the Kashmir Valley or Shia Muslim populated Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan also are working there have the barrier of gathering and does not want to acquire the Hindu region of Jammu verifying information credibly without fear. or the remote Buddhist/Shia territory of Ladakh (Snedden, 2013). As there is a dearth of private businesses here, media is heavily dependent on government The main area both are interested in advertisements for generating revenue and this possessing is the Muslim dominated of Kashmir reliance is used a means of controlling the news.The

94 World Focus March 2018 2006 Human Rights Watch report says that the media certain extent influences the foreign policy of a nation in Azad Kashmir region has controlled freedom of (Harris, 2009 & Naveh, 2002) should not in turn expression and used mainly by the federal government persuade divisions in perceptions through their for propaganda against India. There is restricted factually diverse narratives. independent media in the region and inadequate internet access and one of the few private In the absence of binding ground rules or broadcasting media allowed to operate is FM radio Inter-State agreements between India and Pakistan stations but they are principally entertainment oriented over the entire length of the internationally recognized while the state-run radio essentially broadcasts news. International Border (IB) and the de-facto Line of Also, unlike some prominent online newspapers in Control (LoC), border management is not been ably IAK, most newspapers in the PAK are in regional done on the principles and norms of International language and have no internet or social media Law. The public if adequately informed of the current presence. The foreign media though enjoys substantial government stand on larger issues governing the press freedom and autonomy in reporting from IAK decisive actions of its leadership, real trust could be than PAK due to the difference in information ascertained for the State to profess longer strategic dispersion regulations by the respective federal aims towards a peaceful resolution. Decentralization governments of the States. as against independence in the view of the Manmohan-Musharaff formula could lead a general Media Dissonance and Pubic Mis- show of resolve in faith and diplomatic headway. Along understanding with this continual rapprochement with diverse Kashmir today is not a complete question of sectarian Kashmiri factions from both sides of the LoC and or ethnic strife but more a matter of communal trust empowering businesses, crafts and skills for lasting and state discounting. The division of perception in development would mold favorable public opinion. public opinion is the quashed ‘secure border Over the years, the Tyrol example or the Andorra governance’ both in IAK & PAK. The media ethics model of reconstitution of part of J&K too have been which follows impartial and fair reporting is presented as alternative solutions for autonomy and responsible for the deeply impressed nationalistic demilitarisation, though the Power politics of ego and Identity but it also sensible to the injustice honed on prestige have failed to accommodate this in Kashmir’s fellow-lives in western and northernmost Kashmir discourse. and the Kashmir valley. It has been historically seen that the party in The India-Pakistan border conflict in Kashmir office at the federal level in Pakistan ends up forming and the India-China border dispute in Aksai Chin, the local governments in AJK and GB, be it the Shaksgam and ‘salami slicing’ encroachment in the Pakistani Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N) in the north-eastern Frontier though of different origins form 2016 AJK Legislative Assembly or other Pakistani the essence of same assertive policy motives of the based Political parties based in AJK like Pakistan Indian State. Even then, the framing of the reports People’s Party (AJKPPP) & the Pakistan Tehreek- varies in the Indian media where one is reported as e-Insaf (PTI). While the PAK based 12 small- Inter-state struggle for territorial dominance while the Kashmiri Parties All Parties National Alliance other as of boundary proclivities. These lead to (APNA), face the wrath of the Pakistani authorities ‘antagonism of strategies’ in the minds of the people for their cause of self-determination in AJK, and leaders (Chaaban, 2015).” India and Pakistan Nationalist and pro-independence groups such as the have thus far not formalised the as yet unwritten 2003 Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), the cease fire agreement (The Hindu, 2016). The media Gilgit Baltistan United Movement (GBUM), takes for granted these inconsistencies in their Balwaristan National Front and others, continue to respective narratives of India-Pakistan border conflict voice for better constitutional status and autonomy. with no proper policy mandate and indecisive In India, Peoples Democratic Party (JKPDP), that leadership. The media reports which shape public believes in self-rule rather than autonomy and debates opinion through their repeated contentions and to a new political territoriality of J&K, and the National

Media discourse on Kashmir: Dissonance in Public Understanding of Indo-Pak Relations 95 Conference (JKNC), a breakaway faction of the contained positive wonderment expressed by the presently AJK based ALL J&K Muslim Conference Indian political establishment to this. The media, in that is in support of IoA, Article 370 and Kashmiri this case, doesn’t create an umbrella narrative of the reunification, form the two largest Kashmiri parties. overall dispute but report the realities in bits and The PDP has formed a coalition with both major Indian pieces, thus contextualising a contradictory discourse. national parties, i.e., the Indian National Congress Afghanistan, supported by India in its non-recognition (INC) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while JKNC of the internationally accepted Durand line as border only with INC while the separatists have boycotted with Pakistan, shares boundary with the Indian elections in IAK since 1990’s and continue to voice Territory at the Pakistan controlled Gilgit Agency. for an independent Kashmir. A 10 September, 2017, editorial in the Media, as a non-state actor, forms the staple Pakistani daily The Nation expresses that “Respecting of information for general consumption and individual another country’s territorial integrity is one of the main dialogue in public discourse. The interpretation of steps towards cooperation […] If Afghanistan media discourse is twofold in: for gratification and expects to be a stable state in the region, it must accept adhering to the social values according to the the modern norms of sovereignty and stateism.” No established norms. The social values and the Pakistan government in similar lines could possibly henceforth generated cogent moral principles may accept LoC as the International Boundary (IB) and not always be a concrete concept of individual intellect survive. With the media playing the blame game of and emotions but keep on being influenced by changes focusing on State atrocities on the opposing side of in thought patterns, both external and internal, and, the de-facto border, i.e., LoC, it is the civilians and by striving for a higher ideal of peace and cooperation. the diaspora who bear the brunt of this mishap.

The uses and gratification theory of The stonewall response of the respective communication looks at the audience as active governments towards the ‘other’ emotions (Ramone, participants who use media as a reference to the 2011) represents inflexibility in public domain. In the knowledge they have acquired based on their absence of discussions when it comes to the actual communication needs and later imbibe it as public terms of mediation in India and Pakistan, evidence beings in their dialogue. With China’s purported three based risk communication with shared information warfare strategy (Halper, 2013) that intends cognition could change risk beliefs and direct behaviour of of information passage in public sphere and asserting population groups (Brewer, 2011). The reprisal to any directional dialogue to its favour in the world affairs, violations or disagreements on the Working Border the goal of media warfare is to alter an enemy’s agreement (WB as accorded by Pakistan) is general situational assessments (Cheng, 2012) while the rival restraint and diplomatic deliberation by the nation remains consistent with the larger national Governments of India and Pakistan. In postcolonial strategy as outlined by its political leaders. India seems ethnic conflicts, the threats always do not penetrate to have already given into this weakness in using a from outside the border but may be “neither wholly nomenclature leftover of an imperial mentality. indigenous nor completely imported” (Williams, 2012) in nature. The ‘mixed’ identity liberalism of the Kashmiri Youth in their representation in the Indian newspaper While the traditional Internal Relations follows a congested attitude. While the Militant outfits theories focus on state-centric national security with affiliated with Pakistan try to induce insecurity and relation to great power politics, where the threats imbibe hate in the public conscious though their terror mostly emanate from outside and it could be dealt activities and spreading Anti-India sentiments, Indian either by force or by coalition, there is the inability of media should not reflect the same message due to third-world countries to communicate its own the complexity of the situation. A 5 September, 2017 discourse in security studies and in devising a holistic headline in The Times of India read “Kashmir youth policy imperative to tackle it socially and not use it as break stereotype, help soldiers”. The filed report a device of political in-fighting and opposition criticism

96 World Focus March 2018 in democracy. The medium of message here forms a Joshi, Manoj. 2010. “The Media in the Making of Indian Foreign vital link in deliberating the will of the state with an Policy.” International Studies 46 (73): 147–63. unprejudiced and balanced media discourse. MEA. 1960. “Agreement regarding Procedures to End Border Disputes (W. Pakistan)”, Government of India. Accessed on 2 References February, 2018. http://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/ 6316/Agreement+regarding+ Procedures+to+End+Border Abir Chaaban. 2015. “The Antagonism of Strategies as a Way of +Disputes+W+Pakistan Analyzing Struggle”. http://www.academia.edu/28074139/ Misra, Ashutosh. 2005. “The Problem of Kashmir and the The_Antagonism_of_Strategies_as_a_Way_ Problem in Kashmir: Divergence Demands Convergence” 29 (1): of_Analyzing_Struggle_2015 16–43. Anderson, Benedict R. O’G. 1991. Imagined Communities: Pervez, Muhammad S. 2013. 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Introduction better connectivity of Yadong region. Military As a major diplomatic tact almost all head of states presence of China has enhanced the security concerns of SAARC countries were called to attain swearing- for both India and Bhutan, which are common and in ceremony of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra intertwined. India showed her deep concern at the Modi. This was a massage to world that the priorities recent Chinese actions and has conveyed to the of Indian Foreign Policy are changing and now it is Chinese Government that such construction would shifting to the neighbourhood. PM Modi’s first state represent a significant change of status quo with visit to Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka has serious security implications for India. This has led to complimented this. Former Indian Foreign secretary the unprecedented war of words started between and diplomat Nirupama Rao, (at Sigur Center for India and China. In the words of Prof. B. R. Deepak, Asian Studies, October, 2017), also expressed the an Indian sinologist and professor: need for India to maintain strong relationships with its neighbours like Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. She “This is the tri-junction China’s People’s Daily argued that by virtue of its being the largest country has issued in its official blog warning India that ‘border in South Asia, its strategic, political and economic line is the bottom line’. On the 11th of July the same strength, and through geography, India has the paper posted an image from September 1962 front political, economic, and cultural clout to compete with page editorial titled, ‘If this can be tolerated, what large Chinese investment in these countries. As China cannot?’ People’s Daily’s sister newspaper Global continues to expand its land and naval presence, it is Times has provided lot of ammunition to provoke India also important for India to reinforce the partnership by spitting venom in its dozens of articles and with the United States.This paper shall critically commentaries, unprecedented in the modern history analyze the equations that are shifting in India’s of India China relations. The belligerence, bellicosity neighbourhood. Standoff in Doklam, problem of and war mongering was raised to such an extent that Rohingya Muslims, rise of left wing in the Nepal it appeared imminent that China may take course to elections, US governments changed stand on Pakistan the war any time. The entire Chinese scholarship went and ongoing political turmoil in Maldives shall be gung-ho and spoke the language the people in uniform examined accordingly. An overview will be taken to generally speak. All the limits of sanity were crossed, analyze the preparedness of India in countering the as they shouted on top of their voices that India should respective changes. be taught another lesson, China must liberate Bhutan and Sikkim, should enter Kashmir at the request of a Equations Shifting: third country, and the list continues. Conversely, on Doklam issue: Is brinkmanship a solution? the Indian side, serious Chinese scholarship brushed Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has paid his first these aside, nonetheless, there is a view in India which international visit to Bhutan with the spirit, ‘B4B’ – holds that perhaps for the first time Chinese diplomacy Bharat for Bhutan and Bhutan for Bharat’. On 16 has been hijacked by its print and social media.” With June, Chinese army entered the Doklam area and the press release by Ministry of External Affairs, New attempted to construct a road. Doklam plateau is a Delhi, “expeditious disengagement of border personnel tri-juncture between Bhutan, India and China. It is at the face-off site at Doklam has been agreed to strategically crucial for India because of its proximity and is on-going”. With this two months long territorial to the strategic Chumbi valley (chicken neck area) standoff ended and got recorded as the diplomatic which links the northeast to the rest of India. China victory of India over China seeks control over Doklam for the development and 98 World Focus March 2018 Nepal Elections: Has India lost its ground? Report 2017 (US government) has accused Pakistan The continuous political turmoil which Nepal was for “destabilising behaviour” and insisted that witnessing since the civil war ended in 2006 came to “Pakistan take decisive action against militant and an end with the thumping victory of ‘left’ alliance of terrorist groups operating from its soil.” US President the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist- Donald Trump’s New Year tweet seems unveiling Leninist) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist the real face of Pakistan. He tweeted, “The United Centre) (ISAS Brief, December 13, 2017). They have States has foolishly given Pakistan more than $33 not only won in the centre but out of the seven billion in aid over the last 15 years, and they have provinces, they got victory in six provinces. Election given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our results show clearly that the anti- India sentiment leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists propagated by the China friendly left wing political we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more”. parties, got recognition and appreciation. Fuelling anti- Pakistan Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif has bounced India sentiment for the political benefit is neither new back to the US President and alleged him for making nor surprising tact of Nepal. Pakistan a “scapegoat” for their failure in Afganistan and also for “talking in the language of India.”Clearly Question arises, under the slogan of Washington is demanding for bearing continuous and “neighbourhood first” when things were moving in constant responsible behaviour and deliverance from right direction, where India has lost its ground in Pakistan. In the same report not only “India’s Nepal? Visibly, during Madheshi agitation six month potential” was recognised “as a leading global power long blockade was the turning point. At that time and stronger strategic and defence partner” but US earthquake hit Nepal was in need of material and also assured India to “support its leadership role in mental support not fences or blockade. K.P. Sharma Indian Ocean security and throughout the broader Oli has taken this as an opportunity and made it an region.” US seem equally interested in remaining a electoral issue. Indian policy makers shall not overlook key player in the region, “We will seek to increase these critical developments in Nepal especially in the quadrilateral cooperation with Japan, Australia, and backdrop of China’s first-ever military exercise with India.” India should take optimum gain from the Nepal (Sagarmatha Friendship – 2017) and China’s present scenario. But India has to play this game very ambitious project to link Kathmandu to Lhasa in Tibet cautiously and intelligently as Washington’s efforts via railways.If China will keep escalating her presence will surely drive the weak civilian government of in Nepal then surely it will posses threat on India’s Pakistan into China’s lap. national security and it will also dismantle regional stability. Nepal shall also not undermine this fact that Rohingya Muslims: Can India be benevolent? she is dealing with Mao’s China!!! The faceoff in An ethnic minority muslim groups Rohingya, lives in Doklam is not hidden. In the above light it would be Myanmar’s western costal state Rakhine since relevant to see Mao Zedong’s famous coat, “Xizang centuries. But it is not a recognised ethnic group in (Tibet) is China’s right hand’s palm, which is detached Myanmar neither they have any human or citizen from its five fingers — of Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, rights. In August 2017, in an unprecedented move Bhutan and Arunachal (formerly NEFA). As all of the democratically elected government of Myanmar these five are either occupied by, or under the has revived its ethnic cleansing policy of late 1970s. influence of India, it is China’s responsibility to The government led sectarian violence, killing and ‘liberate’ the five to be rejoined with Xizang (Tibet)” persecution of Rohingyas, which has led grave (Deccan Chronicle June 27, 2017). security concerns for India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand and other ASEAN countries. As a largest Pakistan: Has Trump government imparted a democracy of this world India was expected to work new dynamics? for Rohingya Muslims on humanitarian grounds. India In Pakistan as military is growing stronger and has a history of benevolently accepting and facilitating exponentially Pakistan sponsored terrorist attacks are migrants from different countries time to time; i.e. also growing. USA is determined to give conditional Tibet, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar. support to Pakistan. The National Security Strategy Including India, no one can deny to this fact that

Shifting Equations in India’s Neighbourhood: An Analysis 99 Rohingyas are denied to the basic needs since long, with India and USA, countries though who had been which has forced them to opt for violence. World “friendly” with President Yameen has also Bank estimates Rakhine State is Myanmar’s least condemned the emergency rule and denied for any developed state, with a poverty rate of 78 percent. kind of support. In such circumstances, it would be Widespread poverty, poor infrastructure, and a lack interesting to see that in how many counting days of employment opportunities in Rakhine have President Yameen will singularly bear the international escalated tension (Council on Foreign Relations, pressure!!! (Maldives Times, February 11, January 5, 2018). 2018).Therefore, India should opt for wait and watch policy for sometimes, otherwise her prompt reaction But India’s silent spectator role seems forced will accuse her for “intervening in internal matters”. by her concerns over emergence of jihadist groups Suggesting India’s stand over ongoing crisis on like ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army) and Maldives, C. Raja Mohan has produced a very AMM (Aqa Mul Mujaheedin) and their potential balanced stand, “It will take a lot of Indian energy to relations with Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Laskar-e-Taiba repair the state of affairs in Maldives. But then that and Jaish-e-Mohammed. For the successful and is the burden of all major powers, especially in their smooth conduction of India’s Act East Policy, along own regions”. It would be like burning the candle at with other effected parties, particularly Myanmar and both ends!!! Bangladesh India has to search for lasting solution of this crisis. Pending status of this crisis will promote Asia-pacific to India Pacific: A New Change vulnerability and radicalisation in the region and on Ahead the other hand it will also hamper India’s economic In the Indo- Pacific region the power symmetry has gains in Rakhain region which has abundant of oil started changing when on the sideline of the 31st and natural gas reserves. ASEAN submit US, Japan, Australia and India got agreed to create a coalition that would patrol and Maldives: Democracy under stake exert influence on waterways from the Indian Ocean Politically Maldives is unstable since long but to the Pacific to the (much disputed) East and South strategically its importance remains constant for the China Seas (The Hindu, Nov 24, 2017). QUAD (the countries though who are interested in having greater Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is the decade back control over Indian Ocean and its lucrative trade extension of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s routes. Chinese increasing maritime cooperation with proposal on 2007 for the quadrilateral strategic Maldives is a greatest worry for India. For getting dialogue between the like- minded democracies. robust presence in Indian Ocean and for the ambitious During his first trip to Asia, US President Donald One Belt One Road project China takes Sri Lanka Trump revitalised the sentiment by using “Indo- and Maldives as significant part of his strategy. Pacific” term to define the region. For countries like Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam & In recent development on February 06, 2018 Philippines, instead of China centric Asia-Pacific Maldives Supreme court has ordered for the release region, US centric India Pacific region would be good of jailed Parliamentarians but President Abdulla news. QUAD members seem vigilant towards the Yameen went against this order and declared state highly ambitious and aggressive foreign policy of of emergency in the country. Including the chief justice China. Maritime geopolitics is increasingly getting one more judge of the Supreme Court got detained. significance in the contemporary world and they see The present political crisis in Maldives is putting increasing Chinese influence in South China Sea and pressure on all the stake holders of this region to take Indian Ocean as a common challenge. China’s action. India, US and United Nations has urged growing steps in maritime geopolitics is being Maldivian government to end the state of emergency perceived as a potential threat to regional and global and return to normalcy.In the fatal attraction of power stability and peace. In One Belt and One Road (upcoming Presidential elections), President Yameen Initiative (OBOR) China is planning to establish a has send special envoys to the “friendly” countries trade route which would connect the China by land namely Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China. But along and sea to Southeast Asia, Pakistan and Central Asia,

100 World Focus March 2018 and beyond to the Middle East, Europe and Africa. engagements with culturally, strategically and But still there are so many ambiguities over the aim economically significant Southeast Asian region and and objectives of QUAD. After the meeting no joint on way to become key player of Indo-Pacific region, statement has come. India also doesn’t wants to take India is working hard. Aggressive policies of China any decision in hassle. In an interview with The Hindu and U.S. - China tussle for influence in this region (November 24, 2017), Indian Naval Chief Sunil Lanba are the key factors because of which India’s role has has cleared India’s stand over joining militarily with become important. QUAD members. “There were no plans for joint patrols with the U.S. or any country that is not a References “maritime neighbour” of India, which would rule out 1.Abhijit Bhattacharyya (2017), China’s Bhutan push Australia and Japan too. If India’s intentions are only to fulfill Mao’s old dream. 27 June 2017. At https:// to patrol the Indian Ocean part of the Indo-Pacific, it www.deccanchronicle.com/opinion/op-ed/270617/ remains to be seen what reciprocal value the Quad would have”. chinas-bhutan-push-to-fulfill-maos-old-dream.html. Accessed on 28 December 2017. Conclusion 2.Bajpai, Kanti (2017), “Narendra Modi’s Pakistan and The NDA government led by Prime Minister China policy: assertive bilateral diplomacy, active Narendra Modi completed more than three years in coalition diplomacy.” International Affairs 93.1: 69- power. “It is famously said that foreign policies of 91. any country do not change with the change in regime, 3.Bloomberg (2018). “Maldives becomes latest there is a certain ‘shift’ in the foreign policy”. India’s foreign policy is in a transitional phase where new flashpoint in India-China rivalry.” February 2018. At friends are being made. In the more than three years http://nepalforeignaffairs.com/maldives-becomes- would be remembered for the frequent number of latest-flashpoint-in-india-china-rivalry/. Accessed on 15 foreign visits undertaken by the Indian Prime Minister. December 2018. Since assuming office in May 2014, Modi has made 4.Crowley, Brian Lee, Shuvaloy Majumdar, and David more than 56 foreign trips, starting from his first trip McDonough (2017), “Responding to China’s Rise: as PM in June 2014 to Bhutan. This is the highest number of foreign visits made by any Indian Prime Japan and India as Champions for the Rule of Law in Minister in history. There is a large section of foreign the Indo-Pacific”, Occasional Papers. policy analysts who believe that these foreign visits 5.Dutta, K. Prabhash(2017), Narendra Modi in Manila: are required for India to make its ‘presence felt’ as 10 years after Shinzo Abe mooted idea, Quad coalition an emerging power in the international system. India’s takes off at ASEAN Summit sidelines. 13 November relations with its immediate neighbours have been a 2017. At https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/asean- matter of concern while India’s engagement with the summit-sidelines-quadrilateral-security-dialogue- outside world has been improving. Increasingly, India’s stature in international relations is rising as counter-china-block-1085096-2017-11-13. Accessed India is making desperate efforts to be a part of all on 25 November 2017. the major groupings in the world. Overall, foreign 6.Ganguly, Sumit (2017), “Has Modi Truly Changed policy under the Modi government is more of India’s Foreign Policy?.” The Washington continuity from the previous regime than any major Quarterly 40.2: 131-143. new ventures (Martand Jha 2017).In the backdrop 7.Haidar, Suhasini. Quad confusion (24November 2017), of above discussion it is evident that the dynamics in Indian neighbourhood is changing rapidly. Hosting of At http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/quad- all the ASEAN countries head on 69th Republic Day confusion/article20723202.ece. Accessed on 30 ceremony was indication to the preparedness of November 2017. India’s foreign policy (in terms of associating with 8.Harris, Gardiner (2017), U.S. Gives Military QUAD and Look East to Act East Policy) towards Assistance to Pakistan, With Strings Attached. The New the following changes. For getting deeper York Times, August 2017. At https://

Shifting Equations in India’s Neighbourhood: An Analysis 101 www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/us/politics/us-aid- 18.“Narendra Modi to be sworn in as 15th Prime pakistan-terror.html. Accessed on 1 February 2018. Minister of India on May 26”. Deccan Chronicle (2014). 9.Huang, Cary (25 November 2017), Us, Japan, India, At https://www.deccanchronicle.com/140520/nation- Australia ... is Quad the First Step to an Asian Nato?. current-affairs/article/will-narendra-modi-stake-claim- At http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/ form-government-today. Retrieved on 2 January 2018. 2121474/us-japan-india-australia-quad-first-step-asian- 19.Pradhan, Karan (2017, Donald Trump’s National nato. Accessed on 25 December 2017. Security Strategy indicates shift in US view of India 10.Janjua, Nasser (2018). Pakistan Accuses Donald and Pakistan over two years. First Post, December Trump of Speaking India’s Language, Says US 2017. At http://www.firstpost.com/india/donald- Covering Up ‘Afghanistan Failure’News18, January trumps-national-security-strategy-indicates-clear-shift- 2018. At http://www.news18.com/news/world/donald- in-us-view-of-india-and-pakistan-over-two-years- trump-speaking-indias-language-says-pakistan-foreign- 4265323.html. Accessed on 1 February 2018. minister-1623271.html. Accessed on 4 February 2018. 20.Report, Asia (2015), Remaking India: Modi’s 11.Jiangtao, Shi & Zhou, Laura (2018). South China Blueprint to Align. Washington, DC: Sigur Center for Morning Post13 November 2013. At http:// Asian Studies, 2015. www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/ 21.Report, Asia (2015), The Face-Off in Doklam: article/2119719/wary-china-quad-bloc-watch-after- Interpreting India-China Relations. Washington, DC: officials-us-japan. Accessed on 25 November 2017 Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 2015. 12.Joshi, Manoj (2017), “Doklam: To Start at the Very 22.Report, Asia (2015), Asia’s Reckoning: China, Beginning”, Athttp://www.orfonline.org/research/ Japan, and the Fate of US Power in the Pacific doklam-start-very-beginning/. Accessed on 5 December Century. Washington, DC: Sigur Center for Asian 2017. Studies, 2015. 13.Martand Jha (15 June 2017), Modi Foreign Policy 23.Shambaugh, David L., ed. (2005), Power shift: is Reflected in India’s Rising Stature, South Asia China and Asia’s new dynamics. University of California Monitor, At http://www.indiandefencereview.com/ Press, spotlights/modi-foreign-policy-is-reflected-in-indias- 24.Sutter, Robert (2010), “China, The United States rising-stature/ Accessed on 9 December 2018. and a Power Shift” In Asia”. UNISCI Discussion 14.Ministry of External Affairs (2017), Government Papers 24: 9. of India. At http://mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/ 25.The Hindu (15 September 2017), At http:// 28893/Press_Statement_on_Doklam_ www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/can-india-ignore- disengagement_understanding. 28 August, 2017. the-rohingya-crisis/article19686341.ece. Accessed on Accessed on 5 November 2017. 2 January 2018. 15.Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. 26.Upadhyay, Shreya (2017), The Future of India’s At http://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm? dtl/ Do-Nothing Policy Toward the Rohingya. 7 December 28572/Recent_Developments_in_Doklam_Area. 30 2017. https://thediplom at.com/2017/12/the-future-of- June 2017. Accessed on 23 November 2017. indias-do-nothing-policy-toward-the-rohingya/. 16.Mohan, C. Raja (2015), Modi’s World: Expanding Accessed on 2 January 2018. India’s Sphere of Influence. Harper Collins. 27. Wagle, Ankush Ajay (2017), “Nepal’s Elections 2017: 17.Mohan, C. Raja (2018). “Turmoil in Maldives: What A Watershed in Nepalese Political History.” ISAS Brief India must do” Nepal Foreign Affairs, February 2018. 533 (2017): 1-6. At https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/ At http://nepalforeignaffairs.com/turmoil-in-maldives- ISAS%20Reports/ISAS %20Briefs %20No. what-india-must-do/. Accessed on 17 December 2018. %20533%20-%20Nepals% 20Elections % 202017.pdf. Accessed on 17 December 201 102 World Focus March 2018 Can Modi Craft A New Equation With China ? Dr. Pitam Ghosh

China and India began a cautious détente after shutting Can Modi change Indian attitudes on China? each other out for two decades over a border war in Yes, but this will be an uphill task because the notion 1962 in which India suffered a humiliating defeat. of “western-ness” is deeply ingrained in the Indian Over the years, they have gradually escalated strategic mind, and, in the past decade multiple engagement, especially in trade, but relations have epistemic communities have flourished to endear the been dogged by mutual suspicion stemming from a Indian elite to a western conception of world order contested border and overlapping territorial claims. despite the objective conditions no longer meriting There are now signs of change. India’s strategic such a predisposition. Ironically, it was Jawaharlal circles have noted that the Chinese government has Nehru, a leader deeply westernized by habit and been trying to reach out to India. This has prompted experience, who socialised the Indian people to a post- a reassessment of our China policy. Though India’s independence identity. Similar to Modi’s predicament foreign policy has a strong strain of continuity and a today, Nehru sought to diffuse ideas to an otherwise reassessment of China has been on for some time, it conservative and relatively insular elite on what ought has picked up pace since Narendra Modi’s rise to to be India’s worldview and international role. Nehru power in May,2014.The reasons have as much to do and many of his peers instinctively viewed Asia’s with the new prime minister’s economic priorities as resurrection from colonialism and imperialism as a much as his worldview. The Modi-Xi rendezvous in wider phenomenon that Indians could identify and September,2014 evoked several images but the one empathise with. The Nehruvian image of China — that stands out is the public courting of a Chinese as a fellow Asian state recovering from its century of leader by Modi. By spending several hours showing humiliation as a semi-colonial prize for external Xi Jinping around under the live gaze of the Indian predators — seemed similar to India’s even more media, Modi was perhaps hoping to endear the degrading experience as a full colony. Inheriting the Chinese leader to the Indian people. Modi recognised executive office at another inflexion point in world that the China equation cannot be transformed by politics, it has fallen upon Modi to re-craft India’s role stealth, and, without public support it would be difficult for the emerging world order. Similar to Nehru, Modi for him to re-craft a new relationship. In this case it is ahead of the curve, and, does not appear constrained is even more important because the China factor by any deep ideological preferences other than to remains historically trapped in contested images. It secure India’s place in the sun. Just as Nehru was could be argued that Modi is diffusing his worldview quick to recognise the consequences of a bipolar world, on a far more conservative elite that is still mostly Modi has understood that the next decade is likely to comfortable with the West. Let’s be clear, while Modi be very different from that faced by his predecessors. is not anti-West, he is not enamored by the Atlantic world either. For Modi, Eurasia and East Asia is where It is, however, Modi’s contrast with Nehru he has been most exposed, and, this is the part of the that defines the contemporary phase. As Gandhi once world that is poised to become an even more important observed, Nehru’s “nationalism” was “enriched by centre of gravity in the coming decades. The question his fine internationalism”. For Nehru, while bipolarity is whether this worldview is shared by civil society, was a reality, he was more interested in stabilising the strategic community, media and by extension — the balance of power rather than extracting selfish the Indian people. benefits for India. While Nehru passionately diffused an independent identity for India, he was a reluctant

Can Modi Craft A New Equation With China? 103 nationalist. Nehru’s definition of India’s national 112 million, says Free University of Brussels professor interest in 1947 set the tone for his foreign policy. and author of “China and India: Prospects for Peace”, Nehru pursued a different role for India: as a Jonathan Holslag. India, in contrast, only created 3 peacemaker and bridge-builder between the two million jobs on an initial total of 11 million. This antagonistic blocs. The available archives reveal how unemployment problem will only worsen over the actively India intervened in attempting to stabilise east- years as 6.5 million Indians are expected to join the west ties in the 1950s. Ironically, it was China that labour force every year until 2030.(1) ultimately brought Nehru and his ideas down. Modi’s China policy For Modi, the national interest is defined China forms an integral component in this jobs focus. differently. For example, although Modi has invoked As chief minister of Gujarat, Modi successfully drew the traditional concept of Vaasudhaiva Kutumbakam Chinese capital to his state. Now that he is expected or “one world”, he has no intentions of trying to bridge to replicate his so-called Gujarat model of development the two mutually suspicious worlds that we witness across the country, he has moved rapidly to remove today. What Modi was, arguably, signaling was that regulatory hurdles to facilitate Chinese investment on India is not interested in entering any great game a wider scale. In a country where suspicion of China between the great powers. Instead, an “India first” runs deep, that would require all of Modi’s famed approach animates his worldview. Modi is a nationalist administrative prowess but he has already made but also of an era where complex global substantial progress. Indian media recently reported interdependence has made an element of that the ministry of commerce and industry has asked internationalism a vital part of any foreign policy. the home and external affairs ministries to formulate Interestingly, responding to a question during his Japan a clear strategy on China and identify the sectors and visit last year, Modi remarked that he found no regions where Chinese investment is perceived as a contradiction between nationalism and globalisation. security threat. The remaining sectors, according to This comment offered a glimpse into his worldview, the commerce ministry, should be thrown open to and, suggests that Modi views the international system Chinese investment with a clear-cut policy. The primarily in instrumental terms — how can Financial Express cited a commerce ministry official globalisation and great power equations be leveraged as complaining that this lack of clarity has meant that to benefit India. His quest to de-securitise the China India drew only US$313 million of Chinese investment narrative and place it on a more objective footing between April 2000 and April 2014 compared with stems from this prism. For instance, after a long time US$20 billion from the UK and US$12 billion from has an Indian leader called for “an early settlement the US. of the boundary question” or as actively sought Chinese investment as Modi did during the Xi Jinping Perceived security threat is the reason why visit in 2014. The reasons have as much to do with India’s “strategic assets” such as railways and ports the new prime minister’s economic priorities as much have so far been off-limits for Chinese businesses. as his worldview. Modi came to power largely on the After coming to power, Modi has removed the 49 per promise of fixing a broken economy. It was his stellar cent cap of foreign direct investment in railways and management of the western state of Gujarat and his made it clear that Chinese investment will be sought investor-friendly reputation that propelled his ascent in this sector. China is responding in kind. in national politics as India’s once-mighty economic growth slipped under 5 per cent. Central to the so- India’s current attitude towards China is called Modinomics is attracting foreign investment and similar to China’s attitude towards Japan in the ’70s. creating manufacturing jobs for millions of young Like China back then, India is desperate for foreign Indians. Between 2004 and 2011, China generated investments to catch up and willing to show more 16 million manufacturing jobs on top of an existing pragmatism towards territorial disputes,” he says, but

104 World Focus March 2018 adds that it may not work out the way India expects. The Realists are unanimous that the pursuit China is not yet ready to support a manufacturing of national interest must be treated as the principal boom elsewhere because it is not yet a high-income justification for all state action. Theorists have, country and awaits a decade of difficult economic nevertheless, faced problems in defining national reforms itself. But many in India believe a rapidly interest. Is it the sum total of the interests of all citizens ageing Chinese population and the country’s decision of a nation? Is it an expression of the interests of a to move up the value chain and ship out labour- governing class of people? Is it a manifestation of the intensive jobs create a rare opening for job-hungry elite, the financially secure and power-brokers? With India. Economics apart, Modi’s China thrust is also a the Modi Government completing three years in office, product of his Hindu nationalistic politics that draws one of its major success stories has to be in foreign inspiration from Asian nationalism. This ideological policy. An indication of the achievement was had in tilt is the prime source of his attraction to Japan and the first year itself, but it was then too early to discern Singapore as well. It’s also fashioned by his sense of a pattern. All that which could be gleaned from the injury over his treatment by the West for his alleged Prime Minister’s initial thrust was the glimpse of a role in a 2002 pogrom against Muslims in Gujarat. creative and bold approach, one that was straining at While most Western countries, especially the US, the leash of conventional diplomacy, and promising to wouldn’t give him visa, he has travelled freely in Asia break free from clichés and chart a new course. in past years. China, which he sees as his economic Successive regimes in the past had rarely departed role model and has visited four times, in particular from the traditional approach in matters of international rolled out the red carpet. In a rare show of deference, diplomacy, and the boldest of these forays was China even acceded his request in 2011 and freed considered to be a tentative reaching out to Israel. most of the Indians arrested on charges of diamond Indeed, the mere overt recognition of its friendship smuggling in Shenzhen. China and Modi have long with India was hailed as a Government’s ‘daring’! liked each other and make no bones about it. But things have dramatically changed in the last three years. This ongoing shift away from a US-centric foreign policy has gained momentum as a result of More importantly, barring very few Modi’s Asia-centric views. He plainly rejects the US exceptions, such personal equations have yielded approach of containing China. In the previous result. How is it then that earlier Prime Ministers, dispensation under Manmohan Singh, there was a representing the very same India with its enormous degree of reticence vis-à-vis China for fears of US economic potential and geo-strategic significance, retaliation. Under Modi, there is greater failed to electrify the global community or win over assertiveness.”The accent on Asia in itself is not its direct support in matters that concern this country? altogether new for India. Since 1991, it has pursued a It cannot be that the rest of the world has suddenly “Look East Policy” to court countries closer home. woken up to the vast market India means to their But here again, there’s been a perceptible change of trade and business interests; the realisation had pace and focus since Modi came to power. External dawned after the famous economic liberalisation in Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj put it succinctly when the early 1990s effected by Prime Minister PV she declared in Hanoi that it was the time to not just Narasimha Rao and his Finance Minister Manmohan look but to act and India should have an Act East Singh. It also cannot be that the West, especially the policy. This renewed interest in the periphery is also US, has only now discovered India’s importance as a creating greater opportunities for collaboration, ‘neutralizer’ to China’s rise in the Asian region and particularly because some of Xi’s signature projects spread elsewhere. India’s geographic location hasn’t are transnational corridors such as the “New Silk changed since independence, nor has China’s Road” that seek to recreate ancient land and sea ambitions sprouted overnight. The difference is that trading routes. for the first time in recent decades, the country has a

Can Modi Craft A New Equation With China? 105 Prime Minister who is his own man. By virtue of the frame India’s response. Dvaidebhava, or the dual resounding electoral mandate the people gave Modi, policy, is Kautilya’s prescription for a ruler with he and his Government are not dependent on either relatively weaker position compared to his adversary. allies or extra-constitutional power centres and can Conventionally, dvaidebhava is explained as a two- take decisions without looking over their shoulder at pronged strategy simultaneously used by the ruler, people ready to put a spoke in the wheels. The global which includes befriending one king and practicing community has understood this welcome reality and hostility against the other one. That, however, is the expressed its appreciation. textual prescription; today’s sub-continental realities merit a more nuanced application. The success of a Besides, Modi came to occupy the Prime similar strategy in the Indian case will primarily depend Minister’s chamber with a reputation of being a no- on how effectively the South Asian neighborhood as nonsense and yet pragmatic leader. But the Prime a whole (and not just any particular state) is Minister’s foreign policy could not have been a hit consolidated to establish diplomatic clout that can be merely on the basis of his persona or on the many effectively leveraged with China. India probably is advantages India offers. To gain acceptance among the only aspiring “great power” that has not been able the people, it had to be seen as driving Indian interests to effectively consolidate its regional dominance. at every step. Every bilateral or multilateral deal New China, on the other hand, has managed these relations Delhi inked had to leave India with something in hand very well and now maintains a formidable presence — real and not chimerical. This could be in terms of in India’s entire neighborhood. strategic gains, economic returns, deepening cultural ties, cutting edge technology, uplift of the needy, To counter this growing influence, India must infrastructural up gradation, cooperation in counter- re-invent its relationship with its neighbors. One of terrorism measures etc. The outreach to the world the direct ways to do this is by re-energizing dormant community was not limited or reduced to optics; tangle regional multilateral initiatives, which have direct gains came along, which the people noticed. To give strategic implications. To India’s advantage, there just one instance, the unqualified support India received already exist forums which can be utilized to forge in the wake of its surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied constructive partnerships. The forums — like the Bay Kashmir late 2016, did not happen overnight. Months of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and and years of hard diplomatic work led from the front Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Mekong–Ganga by Prime Minister Modi (and ably complemented by Cooperation (MGC), and Indian Ocean Rim Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and her Association (IORA) — have long remained comatose team) had gone, which showed up when India needed and India shares part of the blame for this. It has not it the most. realized the strategic potential of these forums and, as a dominant player, has not substantially invested in Confronting China: Lessons from Ancient Indian them. These three forums, with distinct geographical Text spaces, could be effectively used to build partnerships Kautilya’s Arthashatra, which details almost every and create a diplomatic constituency favorable toward aspect of statecraft, has the detailed foreign policy India in their respective regions, all of which have prescriptions India needs, and also strategies for direct implications for India-China relations. There waging “war” in many forms. Contemporary realities are coinciding interests – counterterrorism, anti-piracy, negate the possibilities of outright war, but war-games economic and trade issues, regional connectivity, and and strategic one-upmanship are likely to continue. tourism, among others – on which entrenched Referring to the classical text of Arthashatra can partnerships can be built. These could serve as good provide a great insight as to how to deal with these entry points to further build up toward defense strategic games. In particular, the two-pronged partnerships. strategy of dvaidebhava and mantrayudha can

106 World Focus March 2018 Mantrayudha, or war by counsel, refers to attracted a surplus of international attention and the diplomatic maneuvers Kautilya prescribes in commentary. It was perhaps the most highly- situations when the costs of open war scrutinized border incident between China and India disproportionately outweigh the gains. The alternative in modern times, and the most volatile since a large strategy, then, is to use diplomatic posturing to make military buildup in the Eastern Sector of the border a point, as Kautilya viewed effective diplomacy as dispute in the late 1980s.In the abridged version, a subtle act of war. The success of this strategy, Chinese military construction team operating near the however, depends majorly on acquired diplomatic disputed tri-border was confronted by a Bhutanese leverage and the nation’s ability to stand to the counter- military patrol on June 16 when it began work to extend offensive from the adversary. The Modi government a road southward, farther into disputed territory. seems to have been working on the first element quite consciously but faltered on the second count, as was Within 48 hours Indian military personnel from evident in the Mongolian case and in the revoked visa nearby Sikkim intervened on Bhutan’s behalf to halt incident. construction work, citing their commitment to defend Bhutan under a 1949 Friendship Treaty (which had The Doklam tussle: Changing equations with been subsequently updated in 2007). Within weeks, China thousands of Indian and Chinese troops were moved The summer 2017 standoff between hundreds of to supporting positions nearby and put on high alert. Chinese and Indian military personnel at the Bhutan- Seen as a ‘face–saving formula’, most international China-India tri-border area was an exceptional event. analysts contend that the termination of the standoff A standoff between Asia’s continental giants over a was apparently timed to ease tensions ahead of a tract of disputed Himalayan territory is an all-too- high-profile BRICS summit in Xiamen (China) from common affair. The Doklam incident, however, was 3-5 September 2017. During the three day summit, exceptional because it was so different, in so many Chinese President Xi Jinping told Indian Prime ways, from the hundreds of other stare-downs at the Minister Narendra Modi that he wants to put the China-India border that occur every year. relationship on the “right track”. Both leaders held an hour-long meeting, which Modi described as “fruitful”. The duration and geographic location were Both (India and China) know what happened. So, this both unprecedented. China’s rhetoric and public was no backward-looking conversation, this was posturing was uncharacteristically hostile. And India’s forward-looking conversation… It is natural that response was remarkably measured and effective. between large powers there would be areas of Arguably the most consequential aspect of the difference and it should be handled with mutual standoff, however, was its timing. Not in the narrow respect. Beijing, on the other hand, reiterated its sense of the calendar year, as any adventurism in the commitment to work with India on the basis Himalayas is largely restricted to summertime. Not of Panchsheel, the Five Principles of Peaceful in terms of the political calendar, either, though the Coexistence to improve political mutual trust, promote timing just months before China’s five-year Party mutually beneficial cooperation. It is time, hence, Congress was peculiar. Instead, the strategic beyond these official pronouncements for significance of the Doklam dispute derives from the introspection as to what this standoff means for the critical juncture at which it unfolded in the broad sweep relationship of these two major Asian powers and how of China-India relations and in India’s long-term, post- it may shape power equations in Asia.(2) Cold War strategic maturation. India is lately taking steps in the right Unlike most disturbances at the Line of direction, as it goes about adapting non-alignment, with Actual Control (LAC) that serves as the de Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting Mongolia (the facto China-India border, the Doklam standoff first visit by an Indian PM), inking a civilian nuclear

Can Modi Craft A New Equation With China? 107 deal with Australia and concluding the Logistics area. The two statements are not contradictory. China Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) does not speak of what its troops will do. Patrolling with America in August 2016. From the Indian side, up to a country’s claims area is allowed under the there is no unreasonable demand. Despite the border various Sino-Indian border management agreements tension, India has been keeping up the diplomatic and will now de facto be applied to the Sino-Bhutanese formalities, attending BRIC talks being held in China. border as well. In effect, both governments seem to Till now, India has been firm and cool. India has not have agreed to go back to a status quo that existed been chest-thumping its capabilities nor spoken ill of before crisis began. China’s original sin was the China - because India believes in resolving the issue decision to extend a road up to the Doklam plateau in through dialogue. Since it was China which made the violation of the 2012 trilateral agreement on the threatening move on the border, it should be the first border. The proof of the pudding, however, will be in to blink and withdraw to its previous position. India’s the eating. In other words, whether Beijing will seek deployment was a response. So India’s troop removal to change the Doklam status quo in a substantial way cannot be the starting point of discussion. Under over the coming months remains to be seen.(3) Narendra Modi, India’s foreign policy has undergone a sea change. Post-Doklam formula for Indo-China ties:1+1=1 More than a month after India and China ended their It has for the first-time become India centric. embittered standoff at the Doklam plateau, followed It is now more national interest driven than fanciful by a defrosting meeting between the leaders of two ideology driven. Hence China can warn, threaten and countries in Xiamen, China’s ambassador to India Luo try bullying. But it may not work. As long as the Zhaohui has conjured up a new formula for improving Chinese stance is unreasonable and provocative, India-China ties that envisages reconciliation and giving in to it will prove as disastrous as the European proactive cooperation between the two Asian giants. powers repeatedly giving into Hitler’s invasions before In his formulation, Doklam, with its connotations of the World War II.As India prepares to overcome the hostility and one-upmanship, should be replaced by a reflexive suspicion of its giant neighbour and open synchronous dance between Asia’s leading the floodgates to Chinese capital, and Xi respond by economies. Alluding to the defining meeting between opening the chequebook, relations between the two Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Asian giants are set for, as India’s National Security Xi Jinping in the coastal city of Xiamen on September Adviser Ajit Doval puts it, an “orbital jump”. From 5,2017 the Chinese envoy said that they sent a clear Hindi-Chini bhai bhai (India and China are brothers) message to the world for reconciliation and to Chindia, rhetoric flies thick and fast when it comes cooperation. to China and India, as a way of sugarcoating a fraught relationship. But the words of the former spymaster, The Chinese envoy’s 1+1 formula indicates who was in Beijing to finalise the details of Xi’s trip, an emerging thinking among China’s top political mirror a deeper churning in India’s strategic outlook establishment about proactively partnering with India in favour of China at a time when China is also with a view to blending strengths and core gravitating towards India. competencies to realise dreams of national rejuvenation by both countries. With his talk of a new The Doklam border crisis has ended as beginning following the Modi-Xi meeting in Xiamen suddenly as it began. India announced both countries on September 5,2017 the envoy has underlined a new had agreed to mutually disengage their troops from post-Doklam template for scaling up India-China the plateau along the Sino-Bhutan border. Beijing, in relations across the spectrum. It will take some time keeping with its recent tendency to speak in before the narrative of India-China relations will turn nationalistic hyperbole, said Indian troops were from adversarial to win-win and mutually empowering, “retreating” and that it would continue to patrol the but the ambassador’s remarks underscores a strong

108 World Focus March 2018 political will on the part of the Chinese president to process to avert such an eventuality is imperative. It improve relations with India, just before China heads is therefore time to start afresh. If India could start for once-in-five-years leadership transition at the afresh with the November 8, 2016 demonetization, 19th Party Congress of Communist Party of there’s no reason not to experiment with a fresh China(CPC) held from 18th to 25thOctober,2017. bilateral with China, where Beijing should also reciprocate with all sincerity. For the sake of an “Asian India’s diplomatic focus must thus be on century”, China must discard its present perceived prising open this inherent fault line between China anti-India policy and start afresh. The United States and Pakistan, especially since the latter has defined dropped atomic bombs on Japan in 1945; today the itself as an Islamic country. A start can be made by two are the closest of allies. The British, French, nuancing India’s opposition to the Chinese Belt-and- Americans and the Soviets were at war with Germany Road Initiative (BRI) better. A key component of BRI in the 1940s; today Germany is an intrinsic part of is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which the Western alliance, and Moscow too is not its enemy. passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India Doklam has given Beijing and New Delhi a chance must nuance its opposition better, and support BRI to resolve their territorial dispute out of the box. Just elsewhere, but not in Pakistan. Once the overall as India knows that no Tibetan independence is opposition is muted, China will not see India as a possible in the next half-century, China knows that roadblock to its global infrastructure building ambitions. India is not going to let go of Kashmir either. China’s India should clearly tell China that if it wants to build road to Tibet passes through Indian understanding; a road through Gilgit-Baltistan, it may consider giving similarly, India’s Kashmir policy depends on getting it a pass provided the deal is done with India in some China to see its point. The real threat to China will form, and Pakistan in reined in from sending jihadis to come from jihadi Islam, of which Pakistan is a part, Kashmir.(4) not India. The day China acknowledges this, our problems will come closer to a solution. Conclusion India and China possess a robust dispute redressal Notes and References: mechanism erected over a period of time but Doklam (1) Ranjit Goswami, (11 May 2015). ”Can Modi was an altogether different challenge. The Make China India’s Natural Ally for unprecedented clash involved Indian and Chinese Development?”. The Huffington Post. troops facing off on the soil of a third country which (2)The Indian Express, New Delhi, August 24, 2017. may yet give rise to future complications. During the (3) “Doklam standoff ends as India, China step back”, standoff, Chinese propaganda machinery issued The Hindu, August29, 2017. repeated threats of breaching India’s boundary through (4) Ankit Panda, ”What’s Driving the India-China Pakistan occupied Kashmir. A structural dialogue- Standoff at Doklam?”. The Diplomat. Retrieved 2017-08-17.

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Can Modi Craft A New Equation With China? 109 India’s Search for New Regional Equation: SAARC or Alternative? Dr. Prasanta Sahoo

India inviting BIMSTEC member states to the First”. The mission was started a couple of years BRICS outreach meeting in 2016 and to the recent back with Modi becomes the PM. His clear strategy Republic-Day Parade has been realised by many is faster economic development model for both India as India’s new strategic move and ignoring of and its neighbourhood. The gathering of the same SAARC. PM, Modi invites BIMSTEC rather than countries, those pulled out of the 2016 Islamabad SAARC member states has raised many questions SAARC Summit, in the BRICS-BIMSTEC meeting among scholars. This has been seen by many as clearly indicates India’s regional alternative strategy. India’s new regional politics in its neighbourhood. His main objective is to keep Pakistan and its best Furthermore, India also invited Afghanistan friend China out of the South Asian regional and Maldives as observer countries to the BRICS- groupings. People have started guessing India’s BIMSTEC outreach while they are not even strategy of regional alternative politics. It has members of BIMSTEC. It is now clear that India indicated that India is desperately looking at an has decided not to wait for SAARC to make progress. alternative regional equation to the SAARC. Meanwhile, India’s mission is to form a regional alternative in South Asia excluding Pakistan. Earlier, Introduction in the Kathmandu SAARC Summit (2015), Modi had India, under the able leadership of the Prime Minister hinted about India’s future strategy of alternative (PM) Narendra Modi, first invited BIMSTEC (Bay regional grouping. BIMSTEC has been seen by the of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Modi government as economically and strategically Economic Cooperation) leaders to the BRICS (Brazil, much better than other available regional groupings. Russia, India, China and South Africa) Outreach People have started guessing India’s strategy of Meeting in 2016 at Goa and then invited 10 ASEAN regional alternative politics and doubt New Delhi would states to the recent Republic-Day Parade. This has dump SAARC for BIMSTEC in near future. It has become a much-talking issue among academia in indicated that India is desperately looking for an India and South Asia. In both the occasions, he ignored alternative regional equation to the SAARC. SAARC (South Asian Association for the Regional Cooperation) nations. This has been realised by Emergence of the Question people as India’s new strategic move regarding its Modi’s search for alternative regional grouping began neighbourhood policy. This has raised many questions with the Kathmandu SAARC summit in 2015. among scholars. BIMSTEC is formed by members Kathmandu summit was meant to conclude a from both SAARC and ASEAN countries. Many framework for regional cooperation in the road, rail consider it as India’s new regional politics in its connectivity and energy. But, the disappointing neighbourhood. India’s immediate objective is to keep response came from Pakistan through not supportive Pakistan and China out of the South Asian regional towards these important agreements. Disappointed groupings. Modi’s sole aim is to make his “Vision by Islamabad’s response, PM, Modi hinted to form India” successful. He wants to make India not only alternative regional groupings excluding Pakistan. He a regional powerhouse, but also a major global power. announced India to continue its efforts in the direction To make India as a world power he first wants to of forming an alternative grouping with the like-minded make the neighbourhood peaceful, prosperous and states of SAARC region who believe in New Delhi’s secured. Giving more importance to the neighbouring initiatives for fast economic development. The countries, his government has formulated a unique meaning was clear: if Pakistan does not agree with policy, which is popularly known as “Neighbourhood regional initiatives, India will strengthen relations with

110 World Focus March 2018 the rest of SAARC nations through other Pakistan to stop terrorism or face isolation and New arrangements. Pakistan is also failing to secure the Delhi’s future regional strategy excluding Islamabad. confidence of SAARC nations on its anti-terrorism India’s preferring of BIMSTEC over SAARC is measures. When all member states pulled out of the mainly aimed to keep Pakistan and Chinese influence 19th SAARC Summit, Pakistan had to postpone it. away of regional groupings. Later, all these SAARC countries seen gathered in the Goa BRICS-BIMSTEC Outreach Meeting, which ASEAN Leaders as Chief Guest in Republic Day was recognised by many as an alternative to India took a bold step inviting the 10 leaders of Islamabad SAARC Summit. ASEAN countries as Chief Guests in 2018 Republic Day. The invitation has been considered as a public The growing Pakistan-China nexus in the demonstration of India’s strategic closeness to region is another major factor India worry about. ASEAN community. Through closeness with Pakistan’s blocking of important connectivity projects ASEAN, India’s has always promoted economic and initiated by India could be for Chinese instructions. security architecture in the Asian region. Both China has started demanding full SAARC gatherings at the Goa BRICS summit and now the membership and Pakistan has been vociferously republic day is massive progress towards India batting for it. China’s hidden mission is to highjack strategic move towards the Indo-pacific region. India the SAARC body to diminish India’s power in the has a historic root of socio-cultural connectivity, but region. Meanwhile, as part of its grand strategy, China very low progress in the fields of trade, investment is investing over US$50 billion in the China-Pakistan and security cooperation with the ASEAN nations. Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will have negative impacts on India’s regional interests. Pakistan has The main objective of India reaching out to always seen the SAARC Summits and its success the BIMSTEC region is to counterbalance Chinese as India’s success. Furthermore, Pakistan is also not influence near to its neighbourhood. The republic day changing its policy on Kashmir and cross-border gathering has proved the decade-old bond reached a terrorism. In the shadow of India-Pakistan hostility, new strategic height. Since long, ASEAN has been a other member countries are trying to form strategic central pillar of India’s ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ relations with extra-regional powers, which creating policy. According to the External Affairs Ministry difficulty for SAARC to grow. Therefore, India is (MEA), “this year, India and ASEAN are observing forced to think about forming of alternative regional 25 years of dialogue partnership, 15 years of summit- groupings excluding Pakistan. level interaction, and five years of strategic partnership, through a wide range of activities, BIMSTEC in BRICS Meeting including a commemorative summit on the theme, As leaders of BIMSTEC meet leaders of BRICS in ‘Shared Values, Common Destiny’.” Both India and Goa, in many ways, it indicates New Delhi’s new ASEAN have been in continuous dialogue to forge regional diplomatic strategy. A gathering of all new comprehensive economic understanding. This neighbours in Goa BRICS Meeting has been portrayed is expected to become India’s largest regional trading by scholars as a ‘new SAARC minus Pakistan’ is in arrangement with huge trading capability. the making. New Delhi is reaching out to its neighbours like never before. Pakistan’s suspicious A Dysfunctional SAARC move in SAARC has been seriously hampering Jigmy Y. Thinly, former PM of Bhutan, once said, India’s regional interests. When Pakistan responded “Some 200 meetings take place every year among negatively towards the Kathmandu road projects in SAARC countries, but these meetings are not the region, India went ahead and signed the Motor matched by results.” SAARC, over the last 30 years, Vehicles Agreement with Bangladesh, Bhutan, and has achieved a little and remained an organization of Nepal under BBIN sub-regional grouping. Meanwhile, little value. During a period when the world moves through surgical strikes, isolation diplomacy, pulling towards multilateral and regional development out of SAARC summit and promoting BIMSTEC, approach, SAARC is yet to find out an integrated India has sent two strong messages, i.e. warning approach to drive economic prosperity in the region.

India’s Search for New Regional Equation: SAARC or Alternative? 111 Along with bilateral geo-political misunderstandings Pakistan’s stand on Jammu and Kashmir and in among members, lack of connectivity and non-tariff turn, Pakistan supports China on Xinjiang, Tibet and trade barriers are major reasons for the dysfunction Taiwan. China is doing everything to block UN of SAARC. Scholars argue SAARC suffers from sanctions against Pakistan for harbouring terrorists. some fundamental structural faults. In the words of The latest proof of the nexus between the two Biswa Pradhan, former Foreign Secretary of Nepal, is CPEC Project. Most Pakistanis believe that CPEC “many of the decisions are just in papers in the form will give a huge political and economic return of protocols, conventions, reports and studies”. Each for Pakistan. China has also expressed concern time the SAARC Summit has ended with about Indian military and economic activities in the disappointments. disputed South China Sea (SCS). The strategists of China and Pakistan have been inspiring each other Regarding trade, all the South Asian countries with words like “iron brothers”, “all-weather friends” turn their faces away from the neighbours just for and the relationship is “higher than the Himalayas the sake of dislike. According to the World Bank and deeper than the oceans.” (2007), “only 7% of all telephone calls in South Asia are intra-regional as compared with 71% in East Asia. China’s military support has long focused on Cross-border investment is also negligible with none building up Pakistan’s defence capabilities. The Sino- being permitted between India and Pakistan. Informal Pakistani civil nuclear cooperation is going to happen or border trade and movement of people are perhaps without the agreement of the Nuclear Suppliers larger than normal trade flows and intra-regional Group. Both Pakistan and China are planning to come tourism, knowledge sharing or technology transfer to an understanding where China is seeking to build across countries is well below its potential.” Today, up reliable overseas maritime facilities and Pakistan economic integration of SAARC countries possesses is expected to develop the sea-based nuclear a challenge to the political leaders of the region. capability. There are some other factors prompts their Furthermore, India’s relations in the past were relations such as China’s contacts with the Taliban security-centric and thus it contributed to an image and a growing Chinese role in Afghanistan’s peace of mistrust and suspicion among the neighbouring process. According to the Chinese President Xi Jinping, nations. Even, in the past, SAARC was not among Pakistan is the linchpin of his dual Silk Road project, the priorities of India’s foreign policy. The influence popularly known as “One Belt, One Road.” of India in the region has been described as hegemonic and creating insecurity among smaller nations. India India and SAARC Long Relationships is also a constant factor in most of the inter-state In South Asia, India accounts for 72 percent of the disputes within the region. Surprisingly, India has total area, 77 percent of the population and 78 percent doubts that SAARC provides an opportunity for the of the Regional Gross National Product. India, given smaller nations to oppose its interests in the its size and centrality in the region, shares a land/ neighbourhood. Nevertheless, small nations of the maritime boundary with all the SAARC countries. region are trying to forge ties with China to balance India is the pre-eminent power in the region and is the influence of India. able to influence the conduct of other member states. The geographical uniqueness and rapid economic China-Pakistan Recent Closeness growth make India stand out as a logical driver of the China loves Pakistan so much because both have success of the SAARC. India, being the largest been complementing each other’s strategic country in South Asia in terms of land area, population, requirement. Pakistan’s ruling elite, as well as its the largest economy and being the most advanced masses, believe that their relationship with China is country can play a pivotal role in regional prosperity. indispensable. The warmth in their relationship started India’s proactive, asymmetrical and non-reciprocal in 1950 when Pakistan was among the first countries approach to stimulate and sustain cooperative projects to support China on Taiwan. In turn, China started of SAARC has been a transformative factor in military aid to Pakistan in 1966 and thus a strategic enhancing the effectiveness of SAARC. As part of alliance came into being in 1972. China supports its asymmetric and non-reciprocal initiatives, India

112 World Focus March 2018 announced so many benefits for SAARC member between South Asia and Southeast Asia. India’s main countries, i.e. the SAARC satellite, SAARC objective is to reach her immediate neighbours as connectivity corridors, railways, highways, energy part of Modi’s “neighbourhood first” policy. sharing and many more. India has been working on Strategically, BIMSTEC connects three important several bilateral arrangements within the SAARC sub-regions of India—Nepal and Bhutan in the framework. For instance, a trilateral agreement with Himalayas; Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in the Bay of Iran and Afghanistan on Chabahar Port and a bilateral Bengal; and Myanmar and Thailand in the Mekong. agreement with Iran on the expansion of the port. BIMSTEC grouping perfectly addresses India’s India has also framed understandings with Bangladesh South, East and North strategic peripheries. on bilateral connectivity projects across road, rail, rivers, air and sea to enhance trade and other Furthermore, India’s geopolitical arch-rivals, contacts. Similarly, India and Nepal have linked Pakistan and China, are also not members of through starting up of Delhi-Kathmandu bus service BIMSTEC. The BIMSTEC is at the center of New since 2014. Delhi’s engagements with other various regional and sub-regional groupings in India’s eastern The combined economy of SAARC is the neighbourhood such as MGC, BBIN, SASEC and third largest in the world in the terms of GDP (PPP) ASEAN. India’s interests in these sub-regions have after the United States and China and fifth largest in been growing for geostrategic reasons. In 2004, the the terms of nominal GDP. SAARC nations comprise inclusion of Nepal and Bhutan into BIMSTEC about 3% of the world’s area and contain 21% of the provided India with the best alternative platform to world’s total population and around 9.12% of the global deliberate with all her smaller neighbours. According economy as of 2015. SAARC also home to world’s to Brookings India, intra-regional trade among the third & seventh largest Economy of the world in GPP SAARC nations is under 5 percent of total official (PPP) & GDP (Nominal) terms respectively as well trade while intra-regional trade in East Asia accounts as the World’s fastest growing major Economy nearly 35%, 25% in Southeast Asia, and almost 12% (India). The cumulative figure of intra-SAARC trade in the Middle East. On December 2014, Modi had flows under South Asian Free Trade Agreement declared to transform India’s “Look East Policy” into (SAFTA) had crossed US$ 2.9 billion during 2013- an “Act East Policy” to deepen ties with Southeast 2014. Because bilateral FTAs offer greater concession Asian countries. Furthermore, out of the seven amongst SAARC countries trade under SAFTA countries of BIMSTEC, five are members of SAARC accounts for around 10% of the total regional trade. while Myanmar and Thailand are members of India’s launching of the SAARC satellite in 2016 is ASEAN. This fact plays an important role in providing services in areas like education, government’s Act East policy. The region is also telemedicine, disaster response, resource growing at 6.5% per annum, collectively comprises management, weather forecasting and of 1.5 billion people and has a collective GDP of 2.7 communication. trillion dollars, which is the main reason of India’s interest in BIMSTEC. The most important motivator Comparing SAARC and BIMSTEC for India to promote BIMSTEC is its Free Trade The BIMSTEC has been cultivated by Indian Agreement. strategists as the best alternative regional forum to SAARC. BIMSTEC provides India with an updated China as a Compelling Factor regional platform to address a range of issues. It also No doubt, China is rattled by India’s inter-continental gives an opportunity to eradicate underdevelopment, ballistic missile (ICBM) programme. Beijing has particularly in the country’s northeastern region. threatened to move United Nations Security Council Indian states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, (UNSC). However, India has assured China that the Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Tripura and recent launch of Agni-5 is not aimed against any nation. Sikkim share international boundaries with Myanmar, Interestingly, China is in the advanced position of Bangladesh and Bhutan. Strategists have started establishing nuclear missiles lunch-pads targeting considering BIMSTEC as the best connecting-bridge India’s northern part. So also, New Delhi is planning

India’s Search for New Regional Equation: SAARC or Alternative? 113 to deploy its first squadron of Rafael fighter jets in negotiations and agreements between the parties the Eastern sector as part of the overall policy to concerned.” build nuclear as well as conventional deterrence against China. India is changing its stance India’s new Regional Diplomacy to Isolate against China. Modi has directly raised the issues such Pakistan as China’s opposition to India’s membership of NSG Right now India’s Pakistan strategy is to isolate and China’s efforts to block UN sanctions against Pakistan regionally and Counter China’s influence in Masood Azhar with China. China is also doing SAARC by improving connectivity with all SAARC everything to oppose India’s bid for a permanent countries except Pakistan. Modi started his relations UNSC seat, opposing its global aspirations. Also, with Pakistan on a clean slate. He ignored the China supports Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir. It turbulent past. He invited his Pakistani counterpart means that Pakistan will continue with its hostile Nawaz Sharif to his sworn in ceremony. Pakistan’s approach towards India. Pakistan has been able to first lie came when its army indulged in more than a convince Russia to declare support for China- dozen cease-fire violations on the border. Pakistani funded China-Pakistan trade corridor (CPEC). High Commissioner meeting the Hurriyat leaders in August 2014 was the second jolt for Modi. Though, US-China Hostility and India’s Benefits he again tried to build a friendship with Pakistan Today, the US-China relationship is trending towards through his birthday visit to Islamabad having a motive a great tension. India sees it differently and stands to to ease age-old tensions between the two countries. benefit from the situation. China’s production strength But, with the Pathankot attack, the India-Pakistan requires a market, and the US is no longer a Chinese relations entered the second phase. Then, on market. While China is looking for another market, September 18, 2016, Uri terror attacks India-Pakistan India can provide that market. The consuming class relations were taken to the third phase. Pakistan has in India is far bigger than the population of many steadfastly blocked efforts to seamless travel and countries. In March 2016, addressing a security trade within the entire SAARC region. It is this conference in India, Admiral Harry Harris, behaviour of Pakistan, which has helped China in Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, called on enlarging its strategic tentacles in South Asia. To India to join the United States, Japan, and Australia reduce China’s influence Modi wants to lead the to deal with common security challenges in the Indo- infrastructural connectivity push in SAARC. Asia-Pacific region through the Quadrilateral Security Meanwhile, Islamabad has been forced to Dialogue. demonstrate the seriousness towards India. But, the release of Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, a top leader of Furthermore, India’s involvement in the South the LeT and the mastermind of the 26/11 Mumbai China Sea (SCS) has one main objective of economic terrorist attacks, exposed Pakistan otherwise. Now progress to counter China and to maintain good Pakistan has become irrelevant to India’s development relations with ASEAN. SCS sees a heavy percentage agenda. Therefore, Modi has obtained a policy to of world trade. Around 50% of India’s trade passes ignore and isolate Pakistan in the region. through the Malacca Strait. The SCS region is believed to have vast reserves of oil and natural gas. India’s effort to Strengthen SAARC Moreover, the increasing Chinese presence in the India is one of the most dynamic and fastest growing region has created a threat for Indian trade. Therefore, economies of the world. It constitutes not only a vast India has to be involved in to safeguard its economic and growing market, but also a competitive source of opportunities and trade. The SCS disputes also offer technologies and knowledge-based services. India is an opportunity for greater cooperation between the fully prepared to do more to throw open its markets US and India in contributing to the management of to all the neighbours. Investors are ready to invest in regional order. India views the SCS as a secondary rebuilding and upgrading cross-border infrastructure. sphere of influence. In April 2016, India, Russia and India wants to make the neighbours full stakeholders China released a joint statement, which asserted, “All in its economic destiny and through cooperation, can related disputes should be addressed through create a globally competitive South Asian Economic

114 World Focus March 2018 Community. Through full implementation SAFTA, terrorism and concluded the historic land boundary intra-SAARC trade touched US$529 million in 2009. agreement, which he likened to the ‘fall of the Berlin While witnessing SAARC member’s cooperation in Wall’. The boundary problem has been solved with a the security matters India’s gesture to provide duty- constitutional amendment by India for the exchange free access to LDCs is highly appreciated. The of land with Bangladesh. Earlier during her visit to SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk and Bangladesh, Shusma Swaraj gave a commitment to SAARC Drug Offences Monitoring Desk based in address Bangladesh’s concerns over sharing of Sri Lanka enable the exchange of information on Teesta water problem. terrorist and drug-related cases. Similarly, an internet- based network among police authorities of member India’s New Policy Direction states is being set up by India for the exchange of The Indian policy direction has been changed towards unclassified information. projecting India as a leader of the region, not the Boss. The small neighbours are convinced not to feel that While democracy remains India’s abiding their interests have been sacrificed for India in the conviction, the importance of the neighbourhood name of regional cooperation. Border States are requires that it remain engaged with all the incorporated into the foreign policy-making process governments of the region. India has been attempting in a very constructive way. The extra-regional tie- to engage the people of the region beyond the ups are expected to become beneficial for the region, governmental initiatives to establish an environment at least harmless to other nations in the region. There for a compact of peace and harmony throughout the has been a paradigm shift in the foreign policy, region. India also believes that the establishment of a particularly towards neighbouring states. peaceful neighbourhood is integrally linked to “Neighbourhood first” has become the main principle economic development in the neighbouring countries. of the Government. India’s own culture, philosophy, In this respect, Modi has moved in the right direction secular traditions and democratic principles will form by gifting a satellite to SAARC. the bedrock of the bilateral relations. The basic thrust of the doctrine is to support friendly, peaceful, secular, India Building Trust by creating Conducive democratic believers in the region. As a foreign policy Environment expert, Leslie Gelb argued in 2010, “GDP now matters PM, Modi is constantly putting his best efforts to build more than force.” Therefore, it has become true as trust among the South Asian nations by creating a C. Raja Mohan said, “national border or the zone of conducive environment. Speaking for the first time conflict should be transformed to the zone of peace, about his surprise initiative, which got all-round praise, friendship, love, prosperity and cooperation.” he said, “The world is still talking about it. We have never thought beyond the country’s frontiers. We are India’s Resolving Bilateral Disputes with a big country, an old country and a big power. We Neighbours should make the world realise it. Once we do it, the India resolved the Land Boundary Agreement and world will not shy away from giving us the due respect maritime boundary dispute with Bangladesh are and status.” Keen to start his foreign tours from the examples of New Delhi’s Cooperation and neighbourhood, Modi took his first visit to the smallest Commitment towards bilateral disputes. India has set Bhutan. In their Constituent Assembly Modi said, a history of keeping promises for regional integration “Nepal is a truly sovereign nation. We have always with signing the long-standing Land Boundary believed that it is not our job to interfere with what Agreement (LBA). India and Bangladesh signed the you do, but to support you in the path you decide to LBA on June 6, 2015, to simplify their 4,096.7km take.” India had also assured to provide all possible border and clarify the identities of 52,000 people living help and rebuild Nepal that was devastated in the in enclaves. Under the deal, signed by PM, Modi and 2015 earthquake. PM, Sheikh Hasina, the two countries have swapped Modi’s visit to Bangladesh on June 8, 2015, has set some 200 tiny enclaves dotted around the border. Modi the tone for future cooperation to bring two countries said in a joint press conference with Hasina, “We even closer. He delivered a strong message against have shown political consolidation and goodwill with

India’s Search for New Regional Equation: SAARC or Alternative? 115 the signing of this deal.” India has also clearly said to strategy threatening India’s supremacy in the region. talk to all the neighbours regarding any issue and LBA In recent years, guided by its ‘good-neighbour policy’, is the example of that commitment. China has established good contact with all SAARC members. Since it borders five of the eight member Modi’s New Cultural Diplomacy states of the SAARC, its influence in South Asia The United Nations General Assembly on December continues to grow. At the 2005 Dhaka summit, China 11, 2014, proclaimed June 21 as the ‘International was given the observer status. Pakistan, Nepal and Day of Yoga’, following an appeal by PM, Modi. This Sri Lanka are under the powerful influence of both small but interesting step underlines the immense USA and China. India’s small neighbours want to possibilities for projecting India’s soft power under see China playing a larger role in the economic Modi. Calling “yoga is an invaluable gift of our ancient development of the region and the SAARC process. tradition”, Modi argued that “yoga embodies the unity However, India is very sceptical towards China’s of mind and body; thought and action; restraint and affiliation to SAARC. In the beginning, India was in fulfillment”. Not surprisingly, all the SAARC countries the resisting mode saying India’s vicinity is India’s had immediately given their support for the Yoga Day. exclusive area of influence but over time India has During his travels to foreign countries, Modi has learned to accommodate big powers’ interests consistently emphasized the importance of Indian moulding positive in its own support. As far as it does democracy. Along with economic ‘demand’ and a not harm India’s interest in the region, it tries to youthful ‘demography’, Modi has affirmed, tolerate. In the meantime, India has developed its good “democracy” makes India a valuable partner in the relationship with China and USA as its No. 1 and world. No. 2 trading partners respectively. The USA is also India’s natural ally in the war against terrorism. Not just physical, India is now forging Furthermore, the international community is now connections of minds and hearts in the region. India focused on the region for ending terrorism, which is now realises to promote and deepen people-to-people, welcomed by India. educational and cultural linkages. The regional integrated can surely complement through harnessing India’s New Regional Equation: SAARC, cultural and spiritual energies of the region. South BIMSTEC or Alternative ? Asia is the cradle of four important religions of the Modi has been very bold and confident about his world—Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism and Jainism. decisions. He is well known for his adventurous Some of Sikhism’s holiest shrines are in Pakistan. missions, at least in the matter of security and Buddhism’s most important shrines are located in India development. Along with bilateral agreements with and Buddhism links India, Sri Lanka, Nepal and most of the countries, India remains one of the Bhutan. Nobel-winning sage-poet Rabindranath principal exporter and importer in the BIMSTEC Tagore is equally popular in India and Bangladesh. region. Some estimates predict BIMSTEC has the Couplets penned by Urdu poets like Mirza Ghalib and capability of making US$43-59 billion trades per Iqbal are recited with equal fervour in both India and annum if the FTA comes into effect. The intra- Pakistan. regional trades among member states can upswing up to 60%. On the other hand, India’s exiting from India Accommodating with Extra-Regional the SAARC grouping is not going to happen. At the Powers present scenario, India is not planning to dump Growing big powers influence in the neighbourhood SAARC for any reason, what so ever. SAARC has posed a serious threat to India’s interest in the without India and India without SAARC would be region. The complementary of the US and China disastrous. No doubt, the continuous strategic steps militarily and financially boost to Pakistan is the were taken by India over a couple of years have biggest threat to India’s national security. America raised many questions. The regional, sub-regional and has reached in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and extra-regional engagements of India clearly indicate Bangladesh. Similarly, China has reached most of the undermining of SAARC. Interestingly, all those South Asian countries through its ‘string of pearl’ organisations where India is trying for extra

116 World Focus March 2018 engagements are mostly the SAARC nations. So, the in the place of Pakistan. The Modi government is question of India’s ignorance or exit from SAARC aggressively pushing for a sub-regional grouping under doesn’t arise. Scholars often consider both SAARC the larger ambit of SAARC. and India are complements to each other. Likewise, BIMSTEC came into being when While some scholars criticise that Modi has SAARC was in a slumber. Many member countries taken the biggest risk in his foreign policy strategy are frustrated with the slow progress of SAARC and vis-à-vis South Asia for ignoring SAARC, others looking for alternative grouping. India signed a argue that foreign policy is always full of speculations multilateral agreement to roll out the BBIN corridor and risks. PM, Modi has already announced, as his in Thimphu on June 15, 2015. It was in line with Modi’s vision for India is rapid transformation, not gradual agenda of regional economic cooperation through evolution. He has hinted New Delhi wants to look at cross-border connectivity. India has also fast-tracked other groupings simultaneously while remaining a similar motor vehicle agreement with Thailand and strongly committed towards the idea of SAARC. Myanmar. India and Afghanistan have also agreed Therefore, there is an optimistic hope that the to sign a bilateral motor vehicle agreement soon. adventure made by Modi to cultivate BIMSTEC will Currently, India has bilateral motor vehicle agreements bring the fruits of success to India and contribute with Nepal and Bangladesh. immensely to the prosperity of the entire South Asian region. Finally, besides citing examples of bilateral successes, PM, Modi said SAARC is nowhere close However, India seems in a deciding mood, to other regional groupings like the EU and the at least on the issue of the progress of SAARC. The ASEAN. For exponential gains, serious fundamental PM has clearly said that the region will be integrated restructuring is required. This restructuring is essential within SAARC or outside of it. The statement implies because India’s growth story will be incomplete a lot in itself. Ever since its advent nearly three without the participation of its neighbours. The destiny decades ago, the SAARC has been held hostage to of our eastern and northeastern states is intertwined bilateral disputes, mostly between India and Pakistan. with that of our neighbours. Therefore, there is a clear Therefore, India is looking at alternative models, indication of shifting of the equation in India’s preferably a regional arrangement including Myanmar neighbourhood in the name of BIMSTEC. World Focus: 2018 Forthcoming issues with Deadlines for Submission of Articles (Words: 5,000)

April 2018 Global Power Rivalry & South China Sea Dispute (10th March) May 2018 India Japan Relations (10th April) June 2018 Impediments to Regional Co-operation: Illegal Cross-Border Migration (10th May) July 2018 India and Global Centres of Power: US, EU, Japan, China and Russia (10th June) August 2018 Environment and Sustainable Development(10th July) September 2018 India’s Growing Relations with US and Israel (10th August) October 2018 River Water Disputes and Regional Co-operation (10th September) November 2018 India’s Foreign Policy (Series One) (10th October) December 2018 India’s Foreign Policy (Series Two) ( 10th November)

India’s Search for New Regional Equation: SAARC or Alternative? 117 India-Bhutan Relation: A Pre-eminent Example of Bilateralism Arpon Sarki

Introduction expansion of future bilateral relation. Infact the In a globalised world, prosperity of a nation lies in its traditional bilateral relation further extending in ability to integrate with other national and countries different area such as skill development programs, of the South Asian is no exception to this rule. As far Bhutanese concept of Gross National Happiness and as India is concerned, greater connectivity and trust and understanding has further been matured over maintaining harmonious relations with its neighbours the year. The India-Bhutan relationship can be is and will be the most vital option for the idea of compared to a ‘Kushuthara’, a treasured product promoting peace and economic progress through created through different patterns and weaves and mutual partnerships and it became more relevant than constantly evolving with time.2 before. India has an obvious interest in the success of its neighbours, since a stable neighborhood Nature and scope of Indo-Bhutan relation contributes to an enabling environment for India’s own We are living in world undergoing very major domestic objectives, while disturbances on India’s transformation, region is going to witness major borders can act as a constraint on India’s continued transformation and a new challenge is emerging. rise Within this framework a great deal can be There are many challenges which both country are achieved to our mutual benefit. .Prime Minister facing and both must find a way in which this very Narendra Modi led much emphasis on ‘neighborhood special relationship which India and Bhutan do have, first’ policy and hence to give practical shape to it he the close understanding do have, that brought to bear continues stress on greater cooperation and better in taking this new emerging issue. There is ties. While he made an impressive start in this commitment for further expending cooperation in direction from his very swearing-in ceremony in May number of areas. However both the country need to 2014, by inviting all the neighboring countries. Prime ensure that the new challenges should not turn out as Minister of India during his Bhutan visits in 2014 contentious issue between two countries so that the described the bilateral relations as “B2B” traditionally build understanding ,mutual respect and relations”Bharat to Bhutan” and “Bhutan to Bharat” corporation that pursued in past year can be relations.With the passage of time as the Bhutan is continued. May be things may not be changes in next being swept into the process of current social and one decade in terms of basic common interest and international scenario. But as a result of changing value that binds together but one can extrapolate that international scenario, its traditional strongholds of from changing contemporary circumstance. Bhutan national identity and cultural cohesion continued to also wants to be nation of it as it became now a face increasing challenges. 1 And this is because democratic sensitive. In the era of globalization every Bhutan’s geographical and strategically location country wants to make relationship with those relation to outside world. However the two countries countries where they could get a big market and that enjoy a special relation that extends far beyond case Bhutan definelty get market in India. Bhutan geography to deep-rooted religious, cultural, historical has supported India’s position at international forums- and economic ties and cooperation. Friendship therefore considered as a trusted friend. In recent encompasses the wide range of areas and issues of times, Bhutan is negotiating with many countries due common interests. People-to-people contacts, intra- to high unemployment and debt burden on and inter-regional connectivity, cultural exchanges, economy. India foreign policy needs to consider this trade, investment flows and integrated approaches aspect. India needs to invest in Bhutan at many fronts to vital issues like water, food, health, education and including hydro-power, defence cooperation, climate change continue to be architecture for economic inter-dependence and road connectivity.

118 World Focus March 2018 The India- Bhutan relations are age old from 747 AD Indo-Bhutan treaty in 2007 reflect the majority of where sambhaji went to Bhutan to popularize excellent relations between two country as well as Buddhism. Both shares a lot of commonalities in terms commitment to work closely together to safe about of culture, religion and heritage. Bhutan turned from each other’s nation interest. Updated treaty provides a monarchy system to democratic country in 2008. us with a renewed framework for further strengthen The change in Bhutan has further strengthened the countries exemplary friendship, understanding, relation since India helped Bhutan in setting up the cooperation in a new era of increasingly globalizing democratic process. Witness from both past and world. Both India and Bhutan are sovereign actor present regarding the fact that how such big country and like every other state actor, they both have navigate and small country provided such excellent example the water of international politics which characterized of bilateralism, but this serried ties and friendship is with competition, conflict(of power politics) that often not just happen by accident or by good fortune rather compelled both to face challenging and turbulent world too much effort on maintenance on cooperation has beyond its geographical frontier. The treaty reflects been put into it by the leaders of both the country how both countries hold take forward there relation time to time. India has been magnanimous in their in 21st century. The revised version of their 57 year approach to Bhutan and leader since Nehru down to old Friendship Treaty that gives Thimphu more Modi have always been magnanimous to their freedom in the crucial areas of foreign policy and approach to Bhutan and in return Bhutan leaders non-lethal military purchases. The External Affairs responded with appreciation and with very pragmatic Ministry spokesperson Navtej Sarna said rightly stated wisdom in understanding geo-political ground realities “The signing of the India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty as a land locked south facing Himalayan country. today opens a new era in the further deepening and Bhutan leader recognized this and decided friendship strengthening of this unique and special relationship” with India is cornerstone of Bhutan foreign policy. under the reign of Bhutan’s new king,.3 The Indian- Leaders have also ensured that mutual trust and Bhutan Friendship Treaty, which was signed in New understanding is always marking as close friendship Delhi on February 8, 2007, came into force following and cooperation between two. It is not the relation the exchange of Instruments of Ratification between that takes for granted. It should be nurtured inspite the two governments in Thimphu on March 2, 200.4 of having close and strong relation. The Treaty can also be called the framework for future interaction, highlighting cooperative partnership Indo-Bhutan friendship treaty rather than a relationship built on financial In case of Indo-Bhutan, land mark treaty happens in dependence. India-Bhutan relationship is perhaps the 1949 and revised in 2007.In 1949 treaty India has only bilateral engagement in South Asia which has taken responsibility related with security and defence stood the test of time. in terms of training of army and forces and developing military infrastructure and consultation related to Bilateral as mechanism for regular contact security issue, export of arms and ammunition. The bilateral relation between India and Bhutan based Security is very important area of mutual interest on vision of working together in partnership based on understanding and cooperation between India and trust, respect, and shared political interest and durable Bhutan. The importance attached to security concern foundation of this friendship is continues to be nurtured reflect in area article 2 of which was re-written in and strengthen by regular visits of successive leaders 2007 which reads “In keeping with the abiding ties of the two countries. Significant number of official of close friendship and cooperation between initiatives in terms of regular contacts, including Bhutan and India, the Government of the meetings of the top leaderships and of senior officials Kingdom of Bhutan and the Government of the has been taken in both past year to strengthen Republic of India shall cooperate closely with each relations with the neighbours.5 Such visits became other on issues relating to their national interests. the tradition and are continue under present Neither Government shall allow the use of its government as well basically to facilitate and to territory for activities harmful to the national strengthen partnership in diverse areas of common security and interest of the other.”The singing of interest and cooperation. In 2014 Tshering Tobgay

India-Bhutan Relation: A Pre-eminent Example of Bilateralism 119 had visited India from 26- 28 May 2014 to attend Outreach Summit in Goa in October 2016.8 And the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s swearing-in year 2017, bilateral relation marked with two ceremony. And then by Prime Minister Shri Narendra significant visits. The first by Indian foreign secretary Modi first foreign visit to Bhutan on 14 June 2014 S Jaishankar in first week of October where he meet similarly in the same year in the month of November top government official and leaders including PM President Shri Pranab Mukherjee visited Bhutan. Tshering Tobgay, King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Further both the country heads on the sidelines of Wangchuck ,foreign minister Damcho Dorji and 18th SAARC Summit in Nepal in November 2014.6In discussed all the bilateral issue of mutual interest 2015 also the momentum of bilateral ties was continue including assisted projects under Bhutan 11th five year and carried forward by high level visits and plan and its priority, trade and economic ties etc. interactions. A Bhutanese Parliamentary delegation Similarly in the last week of October Bhutan Royals led jointly by the Speaker of the National Assembly King Jigme Khesar Namgay Wangchuck and Queen Lyonpo Jigme Zangpo and Chairman of the National Jelsum Pema Wangchuck visited. The king has meet Council Dr. Sonam Kinga visited India from 9-14 with President of India, Prime Minister, External August 2015. PM Tobgay visited India from 13-17 Affairs Minister and other senior official. Both country November 2015 to attend the 2nd India Ideas leader exchanged their views and discussion were Conclave 2015 in Goa, and thereafter from 6-9 held on broad subject concerning bilateral issue and January 2016 to participate in the ‘Bengal Global cooperation including celebration of golden jubilee of Business Summit 2016’ in Kolkata. On the invitation formal diplomatic relation between two country in of PM Tobgay, Chief Minister of West Bengal Smt. this year (i.e.2018).Such regular visit at all level Mamata Banerjee visited Bhutan from 5 – 9 October definelty help nurture the traditional unique relation 2015. During the visit, she called on PM, Minister of and such relation need to be maintained and sustained Economic Affairs Lyonpo Norbu Wangchuk and in coming day also with continuations of regular visits Foreign Minister Lyonpo Damcho Dorji. The Foreign and high level dialogue at all level. Minister of Bhutan, Mr. Damcho Dorji, visited India from 22 - 28 October 2015. This was his first visit Bilateral Relationship abroad after assuming office. During the visit, he held ndia has a deep and long-standing relationship discussions with EAM in New Delhi and also attended with Bhutan, it a wide array of diplomatic options. the 3rd International Dharma-Dhamma Conference Diplomatic relations between India and Bhutan were in Indore, organized by the India Foundation. PM established in 1968 with the appointment of a resident Tobgay visited India from 13-17 November 2015 to representative of India in Thimphu. The relation Indo- attend the 2nd India Ideas Conclave-2015 on Bhutan is unique in many sense and can be put ‘Learning from Civilization’ at Goa.7Similarly in the forward as unblemished model of friendship in the year 2016 also same traditional momentum of all level globalized world.PM Modi made first tour to Bhutan visits and official interaction in different area of mutual after assuming the charge by considering “special interest continue was between two the country. And relationship”.9 The relation has been flourishing in Minister of State for Home Affairs, Shri Kiren Rijiju almost all the area including economic, trade, visited Bhutan in July 2016 to attend the International hydroelectricity, education, cultural, people to people Conference on Tradition and Innovation in Vajrayana contact etc and became further expending in term of Buddhism. Similarly in November 2016 Minister of the reality and dynamism of both domestic and State (IC) Commerce & Industry, Smt Nirmala international milieu. And it is arguably can be consider Sitharaman visited Bhutan where she signs the unique example of bilateralism or as an ‘exemplary Agreement on Trade, Commerce and Transit between model of harmonious existence’ which deserve to be India and Bhutan. The Bhutanese Prime Minister intimated by others countries (Dinesh Trivedi, 2016) Tshering Tobgay visited India thrice in 2016, first to attend the 2nd Bengal Global Business Summit 2016 Economic relation in Kolkata in January 2016 as Chief Guest, second to One of the most important areas of India-Bhutan attend the swearing-in ceremony of Chief Minister, relations is the economic partnership and cooperation. West Bengal in May 2016 and third to attend the The two pillar inter-related sectors – trade and hydro

120 World Focus March 2018 power. India extended full economic support to Trongsa Dzongkhag (District) in Central Bhutan. Bhutan. Infact first three five year plan fully funded Physical progress of the project, as of March 2017, by India government. Cooperation in the hydropower is 90 %. The project but is expected to be completed sector between India and Bhutan is a true example by June 2018.4) Kholonghchu HEP is 600 MW of mutually beneficial relationship. Indo-Bhutan run-of-the-river in the lower course of Kholongchhu hydropower cooperation began in 1961 with the river in Trashiyangtse district of Bhutan. It is the first signing of the Jaldhaka agreement. The success of HEP in Bhutan to be implemented under the Joint one project has made way for other projects based Venture model, by a JV-company between Druk on confidence, economic viability and shared Green Power Corporation (DGPC) of Bhutan and benefits.10And latter on many projects like chukka, SJVN Ltd. of India. The foundation stone for the tala, kurichhu, kurigongrin, punatsangchhu were first HEP 600 MW Kholongchhu was laid by Prime carried out and theses are a major source of revenue Minister Shri. Narendra Modi during his visit to Bhutan generation for Bhutan, and the country is developing in June 2014 and the pre construction activities are in additional hydroelectric projects, for which India would progress.12 remain the main customer. Bhutan has been huge potentiality to produce hydropower by virtue of its Trade cooperation and relation geographical location in term of high altitude due to The trade relation between two countries is governed which Himalayan river flow high pace which is ideal by India Bhutan Trade and Commerce Agreement condition for power generation. Hydropower was signed in 1972 and under this agreement Bhutan in Bhutan, as supported by India, is by far the country’s enjoys preferential trade and transit facilities that India primary source of energy for domestic use and local does not accord to other states (only second is Nepal). industrial consumption, and has been a major export The Agreement has been renewed four times. The and revenue carrier for the last two decades. During last Agreement was renewed on July 28, 2006 and his visit, PM Modi said hydropower cooperation was valid till July 29, 2016. The validity of the with Bhutan ”is a classic example of win-win Agreement was extended for a period of one year or cooperation and a model for the entire region.”11 till the date of coming into force of the new Agreement, Hydro-power engagement can be consider as whichever is earlier, by exchange of diplomatic notes classical example of win win situation for both India between the two countries. The new bilateral Trade and Bhutan and also can be consider as significant Agreement aims to enhance trade between the two area of mutual cooperation via which the relation countries through trade facilitation by improving can be taken for ward in future. Some of the major procedures, cutting down on documentation and hydropower Projects under implementation through adding additional exit/entry points for Bhutan’s trade IG model and through JV model are as follows 1) with other countries. It is also expected to further Punatsangchhu-I HEP was scheduled to be completed strengthen the excellent relations between the two by November 2016. However, due to the sliding of countries. 13 the right bank at dam site which happened in July 2013, the commissioning of the project is getting In 2015, bilateral trade reached Rs/Nu. 8,550 delayed. The project is expected to be completed in cr. Imports from India were Rs/Nu. 5,374cr first quarter of 2022. 2) Punatsangchhu-II HEP is accounting for 79% of Bhutan’s total the project is scheduled to be completed by December imports. Bhutan’s exports to India stood at Rs/Nu. 2017While there is a considerable delay in 3,180 cr (including electricity) and constituted 90% commissioning of the projects Puna-I & Puna II, lots of its total exports. In 2015, bilateral trade reached of time and efforts have been devoted by both the Rs/Nu. 8,550 cr. Imports from India were Rs/Nu. governments to take all possible safety and 5,374cr accounting for 79% of Bhutan’s total stabilization measures to ensure that these projects imports. Bhutan’s exports to India stood at Rs/Nu. stand the test of the time. The project is expected to 3,180 cr (including electricity) and constituted 90% be completed by last quarter of of its total exports. In accordance with the bilateral 2019.3) Mangdechhu HEP is a 720 MW, run-of- trade agreement, GoI refunds excise duty the river scheme located on river Mangdechhu in on Bhutanese imports from India and this refund has

India-Bhutan Relation: A Pre-eminent Example of Bilateralism 121 increased from Rs 194cr for 2014 to Rs 291cr for interaction, discussion. The camp was first in Bhutan 2015, partly on account of huge increase in motor from 16th to 18th June 2016 in place named in Paro vehicle imports. 14 India’s importance to Bhutan as a and similarly from 2nd to 9th febrary 2017, India has trading partner. India’s served as destination for organized the camp. Such kinds of cultural programs 90.7% of Bhutan’s total exports and a source of 82% helps in maintain a continuation and harmonious of Bhutan’s total imports in the calendar year 2016- relation between two and is equally beneficial and 77. The total trade between India and Bhutan further create opportunity to work together for increased by 7.8% to USD 808.72 million in 2016- commonly shared vision in the future. 17. Exports also increased to USD 509.30 million in 2016-17 from USD 468.95 million in 2015- 16. Imports India remains an important and most crucial increased by 6.45% to USD 299.42 million.15And in education destiny for the Bhutanese student in the term of item electricity is the biggest item in the trade field of medicine, law, engineering computer, science, basket between India and Bhutan. Other major humanities, commerce etc. It is estimated that imports from India to Bhutan are diesel, parts of approximately 4000 Bhutanese are studying in Under hydraulic turbines, including regulators, ferrous Graduate courses in Indian Universities on self- products, petrol, wood charcoal, other coal, coke and financing basis. Every year GoI is providing fully semi coke, portland cement, mineral products, base funded 90 (ninety) scholarships to deserving metals and articles, machinery, automobiles & spares, Bhutanese students in different professional streams animal products, chemicals, wood, plastic, rubber and such as MBBS, Engineering, LLB, B.Sc (Nursing), agricultural products. The major items of export from B.Sc (Agriculture), BDS etc. In the last four years Bhutan to India is electricity from the four (i.e. 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17) total Hydropower Plants of Basochhu, Chukha, Tala and 370 students were selected for this scholarship17. Kurichhu; Ferro silicon, portland cement, dolomite, Modi announced doubling of scholarships being carbides of calcium, carbides of silicon, cement provided to Bhutanese students in India which will clinkers, timber and wood products, and a range of now be worth Rs 2 crore Besides the availability of agricultural products.16 scholarships to Bhutanese students under GOI assistance for higher studies in India, there are Education and Cultural relation significant numbers of Indian teachers many of whom In the area of education and cultural matters also we are posted to teach in remote areas in Bhutan.. India find a close cooperation and ties between India and will also assist Bhutan set up a digital library which Bhutan. The culture and education are infact the two will provide access to Bhutanese youth to two million important soft power tools by which a country can books and periodicals. 18 The education sector reflect direct itself toward more pre-determined destined and the friendly relation and role of higher education can the present government in particular Prime Minister be consider as way for continuation of cooperation Modi has given much emphasis on cultural diplomacy between India and Bhutan. Cultural and education in linking and maintain relation with any foreign ties help in fostering the inclusion and sense of unity country The cultural of India and Bhutan is quite among the people of both the country and also help in unique in many way and the relationship draws from cementing up the relation of which both the country historical, religious and cultural exchanges that date desire for further consolidation and intensification of back many centuries. In the fields of education and their existing bilateralism. culture too, India and Bhutan share a high level of interaction. Under the bilateral cultural exchange India Bhutan foundation(IBF) programme, there have been regular exchanges of India Bhutan foundation(IBF) was established in cultural troupes and artists between the two countries. august 2003 during the visit to India of the present In the year 2016 for the first time the India-Bhutan King and the then Crown Prince with aim for cultural exchange and art camp was organized for improving people to people cooperation in the areas 10 days of which 5 days in each the country of culture exchange, education ties and environment simultaneously. It is the unique dais for the artist of preservation and protection. Ambassador of Bhutan both the country to learn teaches other culture via and India are the Co-Chairpersons of the Foundation.

122 World Focus March 2018 The Royal Government of Bhutan and the Government canvas of our bilateral cooperation. Some of the major of India have contributed Rs. 5 Crore each as main Projects Funded by IBF after 16th Board of directors corpus fund to IBF and the entire amount of Rs.10 (BoD) meeting held at Thimphu on 3rd February, 2017 Crores has been kept in a fixed deposit in Bhutan. including- A Tale of Unique Bond of Friendship Interest earned from the fixed deposit is used for between India and Bhutan “, Exhibit and Sales at financing proposals received from Bhutanese/Indian Dastkar Nature Bazaar”, “Folklore Collection and citizens and Non Governmental Organisations on Study Program in Bhutan, “Exchange Study Tour” studies, research, and similar activities, exchanges of proposal from Bumthang Women’s Group, Mountain a cultural/educational/scientific nature, programmes Echoes 2017,”Indo-Bhutan Summer Youth Interaction and activities such as seminars, workshops on Art Camp at Draktsho Vocational Training Institute, subjects of common mutual interest that can help in Kanglung 2017",III Series of India-Bhutan Friendship achieving the objectives of the Foundation. The 17th Tennis Championship 2017, Bhutanese Film Festival Board of Directors Meeting was held in Guwahati, in Sikkim,” Buddhist Cultural Pluralism in South Asia” India on 3rd December, 2017. The meeting considered etc. 34 proposals, out of which 13 proposals were approved by the Board for implementation.19 Both Gross national happiness countries have agreed to conclude the Memorandum Unlike all the other country in the world, Bhutan is of Understanding (MOU) for establishing the India- only country that measures development in term of Bhutan Foundation by enlisting 14 articles bearing in Gross National Happiness (GNP) rather than Gross mind the traditionally close ties of friendship, domestic products (GDP).Gross national happiness understanding and cooperation between the two is as vision as well as screening apparatus for the countries; Inspired by a common desire to enrich and development of Bhutan. It based on four pillars expand the scope of these ties through mutually including promotion of sustainable development, agreed activities.20 The kind of engagement in preservation and promotion of cultural values, between the government leaders of two countries conservation of the natural environment and remains very close and healthy but with transition in establishment of good governance. There is infact a Bhutan, democratic institution and sentiment in Bhutan Gross National Happiness Commission (GNHC) to do get outside influence. The domestic realities are look after the Bhutanese call of ‘Gross National changing, new voices, new institutions, and perspective Happiness’ (GNP).India has time and again assured emerging. And all these constituencies are involved Bhutan that it has always stand by their side for the (directly or indirectly) in decision making, they realization of vision of Gross National Happiness involved in shaping the policy between two countries. (GNP) and in fact India has substantially contributed Hence under such circumstance there should also be for the very purpose by giving fund to the commission. continuous engagements between people of the In the 2017 only India has twice realized fund to different constituency which has emerged with history GNHC. Such as Mrs. Esha Srivastava, Deputy Chief in order to have continued of bilateralism, both the of Mission, Indian Embassy, handed over cheques country share over the period of time. The India amounting to Rs. /Nu. 96.955 million to Mr. Passang Bhutan Foundation definitely plays a very important Dorji, Sr. Program Coordinator, GNHC on 22nd role in the shaping the existing bilateral relationship September 2017.21 Similarly Mr. S. Koventhan, First of India and Bhutan and further nurture it with time Secretary (Eco & Com), Indian Embassy, handed via greater degree of people to people contact as over cheques amounting to Rs. /Nu. 12.5 Crore to well as civil society interaction. It will facilitate to Mr. Wangchuk Namgay, Chief Program Coordinator, strengthen people-to-people interaction of both GNHC on 12th October 2017.22 countries through cross-cultural interaction. The various events are funded and organized by India Domestic consideration Bhutan foundation every year will not generated Border state is definelty a better placed to enhance tremendous interest among the people of Bhutan diplomatic relations with governments in its most including academia, journalists and students etc but trusted neighborhood Bhutan given its geographical, at the same time this has succeed in widening the cultural and historical ties with the country.

India-Bhutan Relation: A Pre-eminent Example of Bilateralism 123 Paradiplomacy or constituent diplomacy can be a most Namgyel expressed interest in entering into a constructive way to channelize and enhance Indian memorandum of understanding (Mou) with Assam Foreign Policy in relation to its immediate neighbor. for jointly promoting tourism. Meanwhile, Sonowal Termed “constituent diplomacy” or “paradiplomacy,” has also invited Bhutan to participate in the upcoming it was first proposed in 1990 by the American scholar Global Investors’ Summit to be held in John Kincaid, who outlined a foreign policy role for Guwahati.28Such discussion and interaction among local and regional governments within a democratic the regional leaders is very much healthy for nurturing federal system.23Bhutan with transition take place in the relation of border state and Bhutan and it is further 2008 characterized with emerging political, economic likely to grow with rapid proliferation and process of dynamism that led to creation of immense potential globalization strengthens. Similarly India’s excellent in furthering social-cultural and economy. Both India relations with Bhutan and its involvement in the and Bhutan posses immense potential in establishing development and growth of Bhutan’s economy also cultural context without impinging sovereignty for translate into direct benefits for the north-eastern eg.people to people contact between Bhutan and states.29.Northeast states need to be considered while West bengal, Assam,Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim making policy related with Bhutan and most would be more relevant than to the other culturally prominently from security lense. Bhutan is critically and economically relevant to these state. There are and strategically important for peace, stability and now for instance some other chief ministers security of North east states. One of the important undertaking visit neighboring country to explore tasks is to open alternative access to the region, which business possibilities and strengthen social-economic could be attained with cooperation from neighbours; and cultural contacts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi hence, a sustained engagement with our neighbours also mooted the idea of an annual hill sports festival will be crucial. Considering skepticism expressed by with India’s northeastern states along with Bhutan the people of the region, it will be prudent to draft a and Nepal.24 The Embassy of India is organizing a concrete action plan for the north-eastern region that two-day event to present the cuisine, culture and would boost the confidence of the people. (Joyeeta tourism potential of West Bengal to the people of Bhattacharjee, 2017).In 2004 launched ‘Operation All Bhutan at Thimphu from 27-28 January, 2017.25 The Clear’ Bhutan has Bhutanese Army. This was large- Chief Minister of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee scale combing operation in its (Bhutan) dense forests reiterated in the Bhutan and West Bengal Business to flush out remnants of insurgents groups like ULFA, Meeting summit(October 2017) that West Bengal NDFB and KLO. 30 camps of these outfits were will partner with Bhutan in all areas of cooperation smashed and destroyed in military action in December. such as economy, agriculture, tourism, and education. All the 30 camps of ULFA, NDFB and KLO have And Bhutanese Prime Minister, Tshering Tobgay also been smashed and destroyed. Militants who had been acknowdged that Bhutan is a landlocked country but arrested were handed over to India.30And in future because of West Bengal, Bhutan is land-linked to also border state can play more visible role furthering opportunities in India and other countries.26Similarly social-cultural and economic and cooperation and ties Minister of State for Home Kiren Rijiju July 2016 which New Delhi engaged in the security dynamic where he meet the top Bhutanese leadership, including of its neighboring policy. Border state and region Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, and discuss about , should be stepping stone of larger regional integration cultural exchange, improving security-coordination .Hence local trade between bordering should along the international border and the possibility of encourage. Border haats; local products trade would opening a road, linking Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang create inter dependency and generate sustainable with Assam via the Himalayan country.27In same the economic activities. Hence facilitating engagement way Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal held of border state with Bhutan has to give due a discussion with Royal Bhutanese Ambassador to importance and considering their role and relevance India, Vetsop Namgyel, in Guwahati in December in strengthen bilateral relation. They also should be 2017 regarding the development and promoting of taken as stake holder .However there has been different sports in the Himalayan country and about tradition problem time and again centre ignores the the tourism. Bhutanese Ambassador to India, Vetsop local dynamism taking under its constitutionality

124 World Focus March 2018 defined prerogative. Article 246 of Indian constitution in Thimpu. And it is more if that China will try much empowers the parliament to legislate on “all matters harder in all respect to have more influence on Bhutan. which bring union into relation with any other foreign India have to make realise in all respect that India is country” Making of foreign policy issue considering elder brother not the big one and also make it more the immediate neighboring has been formidable task. precise that though there may be more than one elder With advent and rapid proliferation of globalization brother but India is worth depending and caring inter connectedness has scale up immensely and is among all the elder brothers. While making the foreign both reality and fact that impinges on foreign policy policy one must pre-evaluate the situation of past making. Issue such as climate change, pollution events and try to analyze on blend of similarities and sharing water does have implication on foreign policy. differences and thereby have critical outlook on that The border state need to constructively utilize as the regarding the change or maintenance of status quo in connector of neighborhood policy. It is essential to respect to the essence of country’s foreign policy. strike a delicate balance between national interest Trade and transit ties between Bhutan and and local interest will be challenging but to achieve Bangladesh should be encouraged by India. Indian the border goal of its foreign policy prior consultation development aid should factor in local perceptions. is not only important but also necessary and need to While both countries have strong institutional be involved on external affair that affect them. Since mechanisms at place (border, flood management, most States share an international boundary, they need energy, etc.), people-to-people interaction through to be involved and consulted on external affairs that local border haats should be encouraged and issue of affect them. Yet, there is a case for institutionalizing paradiplomacy should be given more weightage and the process of consultation and involvement of States at the same centre encouraged the border state to which are affected by a particular foreign or security play role of connector rather than just divider of policy measure. international boundary. New Delhi must timely revisit its instruments of engagement with Bhutan in order Conclusion to carefully nurtured image of a trustworthy neighbor Probably Bhutan is only the immediate neighboring and friend. country with whom India has no any direct confrontation in all respect. Keeping in the mind of End Notes 1 India- Bhutan Relations: A Survey by Dr. Manas Chakrabarty and Miss Sumita Saha World Focus, past track record that we have with Bhutan, its seems 20 14 2 December 25 2017Ambassador Jaideep Sarkar ,The Bhutanese ,The Bhutanese Editor Tenzing very unlikely to have to change its status quo. Lamsang interviewed the Indian Ambassador Jaideep Sarkar http://thebhutanese.bt/due-consideration- can-be-given-to-bhutans-concerns-indian-ambassador-on-bbin/ However foreign policy is all about serving its own 3 INDIA REVIEW April 2007 4 Retrieved from https://mea.gov.in/Images/pdf/india-bhutan-treaty-07.pd national interest and one need to act in accordance 5 Shashi Tharoor “Pax Indica -India and the World of the 21st Century“ Penguin India; 2013 6 Annual Report 2014-15 Ministry of External Affairs New Delhi 7 Annual Report 2015-16 Ministry of External Affairs, New Delhi changing internal and external international milieu. 8 Annual Report 2016-17 Ministry of External Affairs New Delhi 9 http://www.ipcs.org/article/bhutan/bhutan-and-china-two-friendly-dragons-3963.html) With time national interest is bound to get change. 10 http://www.mfa.gov.bt/rbedelhi/?page_id=28 , Bhutan-India Hydropower Relations Royal Bhutanese Embassy, New Delhi, India And both the actor needs to keep this fact in mind. 11 http://www.ipcs.org/article/bhutan/three-years-of-the-modi-government-india-bhutan-furthering- common-5306.htmlby VP Haran, Former Indian Ambassador to Bhutan) The very status quo of relation is of course making 12 Retrieved from https://www.indianembassythimphu.bt/pages.php?id=36 and see Embassy of India, Thimpu .Bhutan, Corporation in the field of Hydropower –ongoing Hydropower projects) India in upper edge as it serves its national interest 13. Bilateral Trade agreement between India and Bhutan Press Information Bureau, Government of India, Ministry of Commerce & Industry 12-November-2016 , retrieved fromhttp://pib.nic.in/newsite/ as well. However how far this status quo from Indian PrintRelease.aspx? relid=153566 14https://www.indianembassythimphu.bt/pages.php? id=42, India-Bhutan Trade Relation 15 India, trade with South Asia in 2016-17-An analysis, Department of commerce, FT-South Asia side able to keep Bhutan enthusiasm to keeping the division September 2017, Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry 16 Retrieved from http://www.mfa.gov.bt/rbedelhi/?page_id=30Dec 16, 2016, Bhutan-India Trade contemporary relation depend on the opportunity that relation 17 Embassy of India Thimphu India - Bhutan Relations September 2017 it have or it likely to have other country, to be more 18 Annual Report 2014-15 Ministry of External Affairs New Delhi, page i- ii 19 Retrieved http://indiabhutanfoundation.org/pages.php?id=29 particular from China. In this context one can 20 Retrieved http://indiabhutanfoundation.org/pages.php?id=22 21 Embassy of India, Thimphu Press Release, Government of India releases Rs. /Nu. 96.955 million to reasonably argue that Bhutan has firmly in the centre GNHCThimphu22nd September 2017 22 Embassy of IndiaThimphu, Press Release, Government of India releases Rs./Nu. 12.5 Crore to Gross of Chinese strategic calculation and consideration and National Happiness Commission, RGOBThimphu12th October 2017 23 Paradiplomacy: A New Way for Indian Foreign Policy? By Tanvi Ratna November 10, 2013 | The Diplomathttps://thediplomat.com/2013/.../paradiplomacy-a-new-way-for-Indian-foreign-policy... it is clearly reflect from the way Chaina is approaching 24 10 key points of PM Narendra Modi’s Bhutan visit(https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/10- key-oints-of-PM-Narendra-Modis-Bhutan-visit/articleshow/36663977.cms to Bhutan in term of grating economic aid and its 25Retrieved from https://www.indianembassy thimphu.bt/, What’s new/events/visits/Meeting 26 Retrievedwww.bbs.bt/news/?p=53749 Pema Lhaden, ThimphuOct 6, 2015 desire of making Chinese embassy in Bhutan in order 27 Press Trust of India Updated: Jul 04, 2016, 05.54 PM IST THIMPU 28 Retrieved from https://economictimes. indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bhutan-expressed- to established diplomatic relation although Bhutan has interest-in-entering-into-mou-with-assam-for-promoting-tourism/articleshow/61917211.cms 29 Shashi Tharoor “Pax Indica -India and the World of the 21st Century” page 142 Penguin India; 2013 rejected Chinese proposal of setting up of Embassy 30 Retrieved from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Bhutan-launches-operations-against ULFA/ articleshow/549401.cms

India-Bhutan Relation: A Pre-eminent Example of Bilateralism 125 A New Way of Looking Indo-Pak Bilateral Relations through the Lens of Economic Diplomacy Anuradha Oinam

In a globalised world of today, every nation tries number of state and non-state actors engaged in the to promote their relations with other countries by decision making which take place at the domestic opening up their economy at the global market. level, and more countries are actively participating in They form bilateral or multilateral groupings the international system. At the same time, economic among themselves either at the regional level or diplomacy takes place at the multi-level, transparent global level. Thus, economy becomes one of the to the member countries, the engagement of non-state primary determining factors of a nation’s power actors in the negotiation process. On the other hand, in current trend. This paper will look at Indo-Pak economic diplomacy yields successful results and bilateral relations through the lens of economic future projections are encouraging. diplomacy by using ‘trade’ as a tool to promote their relations inspite of various conflicting issues Thomas Friedman’s ‘Dell Theory of Conflict around them. In order to be part of international prevention’ which says that two countries which are system, time has come for both the countries to part of the same global supply chain have to think look forward for other means to bring them on three times before going to war (Kara 2008). From the negotiating table for a cordial relation, to Thomas Friedman’s theory, it could assess how trade boost their economic growth and promote for the and economic relations could be utilised in preventing welfare of their people. As we know, globalisation conflicts between the nations. is riding the wheel of the world economy; most nation states integrate their markets with global The theory touches upon some aspects of markets. This paper will also analyse the kind of the economic-security linkages like business’ role in negotiation that is necessary for both the countries conflict prevention, increasing number of regional to strengthen their economic ties, the sort of trade integrations, Doha Development Agenda and strategy that both countries need to practice to trade liberalisation, and finally the relationship between reach a fruitful agreement. Here are some peace and prosperity. Here, Karl Duetsch’s ‘security questions of the proposed paper. 1) Does trade community’ which refers to a community in which a as a tool really play an important role to bring large-scale use of violence (such as war) has become two unfriendly countries closer? 2) What sort of very unlikely or even unthinkable, and people in that negotiation does India and Pakistan need to boost community are bound by a ‘sense of community’, their economic relations? 3) What are the the mutual sympathy, trust, and common interests. constraints that lead to the failure of negotiations? This sense can be developed through increased 4) What could be the future prospects especially relations, new institutions and shared values1 (Duetsch in the economic ties of both countries? Thus, trade 1957). Through trade relations, nations can be as a tool play an important role to strengthen the promoted economically, socially and culturally, gradual relations between countries. development of a common market providing free movement of goods, services, capital, people and so Introduction on. Thus trade can act as a facilitator for interactions Promotion of trade and investment has been one of fostering prosperity and sustainable development, and the basic tools of economic diplomacy, yet it should thus serving peace between the nations. The next also be used in a creative way to take away the subtopic will highlight the role of trade and how hindrances existing between the nations. Nowadays, economic diplomacy help in improving the bilateral economic diplomacy has become more complex. ties between India and Pakistan. More issues are now coming up for negotiation, a 126 World Focus March 2018 Historical background: An Overview from 1947 transportation cost, especially for furnaces located in to 1990 the western part of the country. India also suffered a Immediately, after independence August 15, 1947, the great deal from the scarcity of natural gas for which economic condition of both India and Pakistan was she could have relied upon Pakistan if normal bilateral on the same platform. Pakistan did not take over those relations had prevailed. War broke out again between industrial conclaves of British India. In 1947, only 7 India and Pakistan which was concluded by signing per cent of the industrial workforce was located in Shimla Agreement in 1971. Formal bilateral trade had Pakistan. To minimise adverse economic implications resumed from November 1974, the value of which of the partition, a standstill agreement was signed in reached 108.18 crore of Indian rupees in 1988-89. In August 1947 for maintaining status quo in matters of November- December 1981 Pakistan joined the Delhi Indo-Pak trade relations until February 20, 1948. But International Trade Fair (Mukherji 1994-95). In 1986, the agreement could not be maintained from both both countries became the signatories of SAARC to sides. Yet, in 1948-49 more than 70 per cent of promote the welfare of the people of the South Asia. Pakistan’s trading transactions were with India, 63 per cent of Indian exports to Pakistan comprising What is the Road Ahead of Indo-Pak Trade manufactured items and 92 per cent of Pakistani Relations? imports to India consisting of food and raw materials The improvement in trade and other commercial (Das 2000: EPW). relations through both official and private initiatives can themselves, to an extent help in initiating and Another factor that declined the trade sustaining a political climate conducive to furthering between India and Pakistan in early independence ties between India and Pakistan. Within the official period was Pakistan’s unwilling to undervalue the channels for improving trade relations, it considers rupee with respect to sterling in 1949. Because of both the regional channel that will become operative Pakistan’s decision, the Commonwealth countries, through the South Asian Free Trade Agreement including India, forced a trade embargo on Pakistan. (SAPTA) under South Asian Association for Regional As an outcome, bilateral trade relations between Cooperation (SAARC) and the multilateral channel Pakistan and India fell from 70 percent in 1947 to 18 that needs to become operative under the ‘Most percent in 1949. Since then, trade between the two Favoured Nation’ (MFN) clause of the World Trade countries had not been in good terms, due to political Organisation (WTO). differences along with 1965 and 1971 wars that took place between both the countries. However, India Under the present trade arrangements granted most favoured nation (MFN) in 1996 to between India and Pakistan, though India has offered Pakistan and the trade between the two countries MFN status to Pakistan in trade in 1996, Pakistan is was a $180 million. Overall Pakistan’s total trade, working on the basis of a positive list allowing for less than 1 percent, she has trade with India and which around 600 items of import from India into Pakistan. is only a quarter of a percent of India’s world trade There is no consensus on the amount of actual trade (Khan 2013). that takes place between the two countries, but also there is no denying fact that the actual trade is much However, the end of 1949, witnessed a rapid larger than the official trade. downturn in Indo-Pak trade relations. Between May 1948 and March 1960, although as many as 11 Indo- The trade relations between India and Pak Trade and Payments Agreements were Pakistan have to open up not only through the officials concluded, the bilateral official trade declined from efforts, whether working through a framework like 184.06 crore of Indian rupees in 1948-49 to 13.63 SAFTA or through MFN- basis trade; but through crore in 1958, and to an all-time low of 10.53 crore in the non-official channels working through private- 1965-66 which incidentally coincided with the second sector initiatives, may be the two channels Indo-Pak war2. Pakistan’s plan of rapid interspersing with each other. From an economic point industrialisation became dependent upon western of view, SAFTA as a grouping of seven countries is technology and capital. Pakistan for a much lower unlikely to be meaningful. Statistically, and going by

A New Way of Looking Indo-Pak Bilateral Relations through the Lens of Economic Diplomacy 127 current levels, SAFTA trade is largely the intra- bilateral issues were brought down in 2008, after the SAARC trade by India and Pakistan. The exports of Mumbai attacked by Pakistani terrorists. Second, India and Pakistan within SAARC region account Pakistan’s lobby group including not only traders but for 80 percent of the intra-SAARC exports of member also large and strong industries strongly wanted to countries. Freeing of intra-SAARC trade essentially have the cordial trade relations with India. For means, in quantitative terms, freeing the trade of India example, the Pakistan Business Council (PBC) tried and Pakistan with other SAARC countries, including hard to meet the main political parties in 2011 the trade between India and Pakistan3. By taking this including President Asif Ali Zardari to gain political account, the trade between these two countries should support for opening up trade with India. They had be promoted through the multilateral MFN channel. meetings with Indian business leaders in Karachi and Lahore in November 2011 and February 2012 and The reason behind for this is that SAFTA is discussed the possibilities to improve and increased likely to remain a small grouping in relation to the trade between the two countries and they tried to major groupings in the world like European Union figure it out to prioritise the important sector for the (EU), North America Free Trade Agreement promotion of trade. Third, the Pakistan’s military (NAFTA), Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) wanted to develop and integrate economic ties with and Association of Southeast Asian Nations India to promote trade relations. Though there are (ASEAN). It would be advantageous for relatively always ups and downs in the bilateral issues, there large players in the group, like India and Pakistan, to was also signal to improve the bilateral relations from become members of larger groupings. But it does both the countries. not mean that SAPTA and SAFTA processes are no use in furthering Indo-Pak trade ties. There are two The year 2011-2012 brought a significant reasons for this specification. First, the initiatives change in the relations of both the countries. High under SAPTA and SAFTA are more important in a level meetings were held between Indian and Pakistan direction other than tariff reduction. The processes officials and the Indian commerce minister, along with set in motion through SAPTA are hence more a delegation of Indian business leaders got invitation important for reducing non-tariff rather than tariff from Pakistan to further continue the discussion and barriers among member countries, including India and thus after that, Pakistan was ready to offer MFN to Pakistan. Second, processes like SAPTA and SAFTA India by reducing the number of positive items lists. are important because they provide a plurilateral platform for negotiations between two adversarial Constraints that hinder Indo-Pak Economic neighbours in a situation where bilateral negotiations Cooperation are politically difficult. But if bilateral negotiations are Economic cooperation between countries implies a possible between India and Pakistan, then that would deliberate effort on the part of the countries towards be the best channel for increasing the trade between meeting pre-determined objective. It involves opening the two countries. And the way forward would be to up of the product, services and factor markets for transit from a positive list basis of trade between the each other. It may proceed in a non-discriminatory two countries to a negative list basis (Winters and and multilateral manner or within the discriminatory Schiff 1998). The former includes the goods that can framework of regional integration. In the context of be traded; the latter includes only goods that cannot Indo-Pak economic cooperation, there are three be traded. options which can be exercised by India. The first option is to go for bilateral economic cooperation. There are three factors that enhanced the The second option is to proceed under the framework trade relations between India and Pakistan (Khan of regional cooperation, i.e. is SAARC. The last option 2013). First, the then elected government of Pakistan is to pursue external sector liberalisation, which People’s Party and other political parties were benefit Pakistan as well, without giving her any willingly to have a good trade relation with India to preferential treatment.India should have economic improve both the countries relations. Though the cooperation with Pakistan because of the following Musarraf-Singh meetings in 2005 regarding the points. Regional cooperation is the order of the day

128 World Focus March 2018 and regionalism has become a global trend. Given tend to gain proportionately more than the larger ones the importance of India in South Asia, India should from the integration in South Asia. take the leadership and go in for regional cooperation. Regionalism may be used to counter the trends of Relations After post-Pathankot and Uri attack: growing regionalism in the world economy. The For Chaudhuri (2016), it is very difficult to predict resources spent on fighting aggression from the India and Pakistan bilateral relationship in the future. neighbouring states can be diverted into developmental India and Pakistan relations could be termed as all programmes that would enable realisation of peace time moods swinging. Also both the countries face dividends. So India and Pakistan have been seeking significant internal as well as external difficulties which regional economic cooperation from the other results in deteriorating its bilateral relations. Internal countries in Asia. factors in Pakistan such as increase in suicide bombers and the emergence of strong right wings in The constraint on Indo-Pak economic India are some internal hindrances which stop from cooperation emanates from two sources: political and successful bilateral ties of both countries in recent economic. The political constraints can also be sub- years. In 2016, a new initiative was taken up to hold divided into a viewpoint that a strong independent bilateral dialogue at the foreign secretary level but South Asia may not be a very welcome situation for the plan got cancelled due to Pathankot attacked, a some western countries. Political and economic military base in Pathankot, India-Pakistan border by instability in this region can provide the opportunity Pakistan sponsored militants and the relations between for these countries to boost economic activity by the two country deteriorated immediately after the enabling sale of arms and civic contracts. Vast Uri attacked. opportunities in the form of higher return to capital from the capital surplus countries can provide a win- India did not have holistic foreign policy win situation to both the western world as well as the framework for Pakistan ever before. However, it has South Asian region. Another variety of political view shown that Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s arises due to consideration of domestic policy. For approach to improve the closer ties with her example, the regularity with which summits were held neighbours including Pakistan was a significant move in the early years of establishment of SAARC has of India. Modi’s unannounced visits to Pakistan in been reduced in the recent years, which is the 2015 seem to improve both the countries relations. indicator of the political stalemate between India and But due to Pathankot attacked, everything seems to Pakistan (Kamath 2005). be in vain again. After the attacked, both the countries have triggered the mutual suspect to each other and The very common constraints on economic tried to blame for the attacked on each other. Even cooperation between India and Pakistan can be given the Pakistan did not allow the investigation team of as follows: first, the disproportionate sizes of the India to visit Pakistan. economies of the SAARC countries will lead to the flooding of markets of goods of smaller countries with Another factor is the arrest of a retired goods from the larger countries. Second, the Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav by Pakistan production and export baskets of SAARC countries authorities for his support towards the Baloch being similar will lead to compete with each other in Nationalist movement. This incident again brought the global markets. Third, it is better for small unpleasant relations between the countries. developing countries to follow regional cooperation Nowadays, big countries like US, China, Russia and among similar-sized countries than with a large so on, do support Pakistan recently keeping India aloof country. Last, it is very difficult to implement the rules from the international community. Kashmir issue could of origin and the preferential treatment may in fact be highlighted as another obstacle for India-Pakistan be enjoyed by the exports of the non-members relations. With the new Chief Minister of Jammu & (Kamath 2005: 158). Srinivasan and Canonero (1995) Kashmir, the violence that took place in the valley have demonstrated that the smaller countries would has been multiplied by deploying more forces across the valley in collaboration with the Central

A New Way of Looking Indo-Pak Bilateral Relations through the Lens of Economic Diplomacy 129 government. The political unrest, violence and human high transaction costs of trading. So, traders do their rights violations in the valley have an impact and trade through third-country ports, mainly Dubai. The disturb in the normal environment of the Pakistan. goods that travel from Delhi in today’s affairs, the Pakistan always tries to keep an eye on the things journey takes eleven times longer and four times that are occurring in Kashmir. Hence, anything costlier as it passes through Mumbai, Dubai and political instability in Kashmir disturbs the bilateral Karachi. Hence, in order to reduce the costs relations of both India and Pakistan. transactions, the normalisation of trade should transform from informal trade flows to formal trade Future Prospects flow. As Chanakya said, ‘In International Relations, there are neither permanent friends nor permanent foes; In order to expand their bilateral trade, both there are only permanent national-interest’. India and the country again needs to amend the rules and Pakistan are no exceptions. Humiliating defeat and regulations of transportation of cargo in each other’s surrender in the 1971 war and disastrous end of Kargil territory. If it is done once, India could connect with misadventure have exposed the limitations of Afghanistan and further to Central Asia through its Pakistan’s military and they have learnt that it cannot western neighbour. At the same time, Pakistan will fight a winnable war both conventional and be able to access India’s eastern neighbours. Another unconventional against India. On the other side, anti- area which is needed to sign both the countries are Indian groups likely to obstruct normalisation with the developments of central banks of India and India, which always create problem to have Pakistan and it is done in 2005 by opening two banks negotiation peacefully. of India in Pakistan and two Banks of Pakistan in India. Another factor is the need to have people-people However, there is always silver lining in the interaction to bridge the information gaps, reduce cloud. The followings are the prospect that brings misconceptions and generate a significant change in road map to reconciliation. The first step is to bury the environment of the two countries. Media is another the bitter past. The next step is to reconcile to the powerful tool that could influence on public sentiments coexistence of geographical neighbourhood; of both the countries. Negative reporting sometimes confrontation will harm both and benefit our results negative impacts which is again a case in India- adversaries. The third step is to identify those areas Pakistan relationship. So, social media must be careful for cooperation, which will benefit both nations and to create positive environment to normalise trade their people. Bilateral trade and commerce leading relations between the two countries and to strengthen to increase in cooperation in economic activities, their ties. employ SAFTA, Cultural and sports Exchanges, Educational Facilities in colleges and Universities, Conclusion Medical Facilities, Joint Ventures, Tourism, Today there is a distinct possibility of a new turning development of border areas and mutual security pact point for the betterment of India-Pakistan relations. (Kamath, 2005: 326). India has already played her diplomatic cards carefully. SAARC has been energised to some extend Under the Modi’s Prime Ministership, the and can be further improved in the current atmosphere future prospect of both seems so the positive aspects. of regional grouping to improve relations with Pakistan India already offered duty-free access to Sri Lanka though there is always ups and downs in their under the India-Sri Lanka bilateral FTA. Taneja and relations. It thus can conclude that through trade, the Bimal express in the Financial Times in 2016 that, relation between the two countries could improve in India should offer the same thing to Pakistan so as to the positive side. Again, Pakistan reciprocated by improve her relations with Pakistan. It not only extending the MFN to India in 2012. This shows how augments trade relations, but it would also help in the relationship between the countries has been trying achieving the goals of the South Asian Free Trade to move forward to stabilise by facilitating interactions Area (SAFTA). Another character of India-Pakistan fostering prosperity and sustainable development. trade relation is informal trade flows. It is due to the Lieutenant General Aamir Riaz, Commander of the

130 World Focus March 2018 Southern Command has invited India to join China- Organisation in the light of Historical Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and “share the Experience”, Princeton: Princeton University Press. fruits of future development by shelving anti-Pakistan activities and subversion”, which is again a positive 8.SAARC Official Website, http:// www.saarc- gesture in promoting bilateral ties between the sec.org st countries (TOI, 21 Dec, 2016) though India rejected 9.Mukherji, I N, “Indo-Pakistan Trade: problems and the project as it is run through Pakistan-controlled Prospect”, Regional Studies, 1994-9, Vol. 31 No. 1 Kashmir (POK) which is claimed by India as her territory. Winter 10.Srinivasan, T.N. and G. Canonera (2005), Bibliography “Preferential Trading Arrangements in South Asia: 1.Chaudhuri, Anwesha Ray (2016), “India/Pakistan: Theory, Empirics, and Policy’, Pre-Publication draft, a relationship of challenges or prospect for change?”, Yale University and the World Bank. Centre for Geopolitics & Security in Realism 11.Schiff, M and Alan Winters, “Regional Integration Studies (CGSRS), March 15th, 2016. as Diplomacy”, the World Bank Economic Review, 2.Friedman, Thomas L. (2006), “The World is Flat: 1998, Vol.12, pp.271-95. the Globalised World in the Twenty First Century”, 12. Taneja, Nisha and Samridhi Bimal (2016), “India- London: Penguin Books. Pakistan trade relations: Seizing golden opportunities”, 3.Kara, Kurtulus, “Trade Diplomacy and Global Financial Times, January 14, 2016. Security”, Perceptions. Autumn, 2008. 4.Kamath, P.M. (2005), “India-Pakistan Relations: Footnotes courting Peace From the corridors of War, New 1 The term ‘security community’ was coined in 1957 Delhi: Promila & CO., Publishers. by the prominent political scientist Karl Duetsch 5.Khan, Mohsin (2013), “India-Pakistan Trade whose work focused on the study of war and peace, Relations: A New Beginning”, New America nationalism, co-operation and communication. Foundation, January 2013. 2 These figures have been computed by I N Mukherji,’ 6.Das, Suranjan, “Regional Security through Indo-Pakistan Trade:Problems and Prospects’, Constructive Bilateralism: prospect for South Asian Himalayan and Central Asian Studies, Vol Stability”, Economic and Political Weekly, (Dec 2- 2 1, No 1, April-June 1997 on the basis of data from 8, 2000), Vol. 35 No. 49, pp 4349-4359. Director General of Commercial Intelligence, 7.Duetsch, Karl (2005), “Political community and Government of India. 3 the North Atlantic Area; International SAARC Official Website, http:// www.saarc- sec.org

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A New Way of Looking Indo-Pak Bilateral Relations through the Lens of Economic Diplomacy 131 Future of the Neighborhood Amidst the Geopolitical Instability: A View of Indo-Afghan Relations and the Role of China in the Region Deepanshu Kabdola

The relationship between India and Afghanistan argues that India and its segregated neighborhood had dates back thousands of years, having shared a lot of catching up to do with their neighbours in the similar cultural ethos and a desire to maintain Asia Pacific. However, they have come a long way cordiality. Their harmonious engagement however since then. Aside from the shared sense of history came to a halt after the Taliban took over the and cultural bonding, there is a strong sense in India Afghani administration. Post 2001 India has that the security of Afghanistan is indirectly related continuously engaged itself to play a more to its own progress. The stability and catering to constructive role in bringing back Afghanistan influences of other countries like China and Pakistan on a more fruitful track of development. The paper are also the prime concerns of India regarding then discusses the background of this Afghanistan.Afghanistan itself has seen a plethora relationship, the economic and strategic of changes in its political and foreign relationships implications of Afghanistan for India and how over the previous decades transitioning from the actors like China which have been pursuing their Taliban to the Nato-backed governments to a nascent interests in the South Asian neighborhood alter stage where it relies mostly on the U.S. for its major the whole dynamics- does the engagement lead support in terms of logistics as well as security. But India to an encirclement or provide opportunities the major change that could be observed in this regard to expand? Is the region facing uncertainty or is is the U.S. president Donald Trump and his efforts to it an opportunity for all the actors to work for an roll out from the Afghanistan region. “In a significant integration in lieu of getting Afghanistan back recasting of American policy for South Asia following on track?The paper will also examine the growing a lengthy review with his generals and strategists, bonhomie between China and Pakistan, how they Trump invited India to “help us more” in Afghanistan want to engage with Afghanistan and their after warning Pakistan against harboring terrorist involvement in China’s most ambitious project- organizations and sheltering terrorists and criminals.”1 Belt and Road Initiative. India’s engagement shall be scrutinized in this regard, whether it should India has been steadfast in extending the “Challenge or Engage” with the concerned actors reconstruction and development assistance to in Afghanistan. Afghanistan. But the question that arises in India amidst the cooperation is that should it be ready to Introduction: help safeguard Afghanistan with security The history of the Indian subcontinent has always paraphernalia as suggested by Trump or should it been carved out from a collective point of view, rather restrict itself to economic ties and developmental aid, than the perspective of individual countries. The core which it has been doing for the past decades. Another value system of collectivism is something which has factor that comes in this equation is the increased to be shaped and is at the forefront of the relationship participation of China in the area. Overtly, China is that we notice among the various countries that have trying to solve the bilateral issues between emerged out of the subcontinent. With the British Afghanistan and Pakistan to bring stability to the leaving us high and dry with a huge population to region, but covertly it has certain vested interests in cater to, there has been a mixed bag of neighborhood forming a more solid ground there. “However, not relationships that we have formed so far. Among such only Afghanistan and Pakistan but China, Iran, and relationships lies the India- Afghanistan bond. David India constitute an essential part of this brotherhood. M. Malone in (2001) in his book “Does the elephant This is so because without all these actors being in a dance? The contemporary Indian foreign policy” cordial relationship or at least in a working 132 World Focus March 2018 relationship, their respective dreams of economic Amanullah who succeeded him declared war in 1919. development may remain just dreams for a long time After quite some struggle, an agreement was reached to come.”2 It is essential to understand the dynamics in 1921 by a treaty named the Anglo-Afghan treaty of the region, where the matters are not only tied of 1921, Afghanistan recovered its independence in with just the bonhomie of the Afghanistan and India foreign affairs. ties. It is a collective effort of every country that needs to be taken into account which desires to be The Inter-war period between 1919-1945 present in the region and may be participate in the brought the rebuilding of the Afghan region. The US development of the country. With all the regional and the Soviet Union bestowed much generosity and dynamics taken into consideration, not to forget India’s help to the region by funding developmental projects Neighborhood First policy, which is more coherent in in Kabul in the 1960s. However, by the early 1970s, paper than in practice, India is currently facing a the then US led Government, Richard Nixon started difficult conundrum. It has to strategize to balance devoting less attention to development and more to China’s influence in the region, especially in strategic bilateral alliances. Which ultimately later as Afghanistan where China will always have a special tensions arose between the cold war rivals led into role to play due to its geostrategic location. The future the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. In the of the harmonious relationship between Afghanistan late 1980’s, “New Delhi tried to take advantage of and India therefore depends on how India balances the moment, but it lacked the means to match its ends. itself between stakeholders like U.S and China and India was one of the few countries to recognise the also local actors like Iran and Pakistan.Afghanistan Soviet-backed Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, has to balance not only India but also Pakistan and and Rajiv Gandhi’s government courted Afghan China, removing the doubts of Confrontation and President Najibullah as an ally.”4 It means that for move towards a more stable future which would be India after Independence have always looked towards a win- win situation for everybody. But that is only Afghanistan may be half-heartedness or due to the possible if the other actors in the region do not try to lack of resources, but in the recent decade we have influence policy matters in its domestic affairs and been able to expand on the past in a positive manner. work towards an equivocal scenario for the future. Whether it is for strategic, economic or Geo-political reasons- Afghanistan has always had a special place Historical background in history. With the turn of the century in 2001, the The Britishers fought wars with the Afghan tribes Taliban government was removed by the U.S., which before its relations were established with the led to dispersal of what was Afghanistan as a state. government of Afghanistan officially. In the 19th Though local government was formed and given century, the problem of Indo-Afghan relations got charge of affairs, it was majorly dictated by the North inextricably mixed up with the Anglo-Russian rivalry. atlantic treaty organization(NATO). Within these The tussle between Russia and Britain was the main confines the Indian government gradually started catalyst of the relationship in that period, where both building up its relationship with the Afghanis. the countries were trying to expand in Asia. The British feared Russia would launch an attack on India through In the recent past, the Indo-Afghan Afghanistan and the North Western frontier of India. relationship has been strengthened by their Strategic Since India was their prized possession, they wanted Partnership Agreement signed in 2011. Before this to keep the Russians at a distance.3The First World there have been bilateral talks and meetings, but this War and the Russian Revolution of 1917 created a gave a more solid structure to build a more new situation in Anglo-Afghan relations. There was constructive Indo-Afghan future. “It provides for no longer an enemy which would challenge in the assistance to help rebuild Afghanistan’s infrastructure region and anti-British sentiments were also setting and institutions, education and to give technical in. Traditionally the head was the Amir which was assistance to rebuild Indigenous Afghan capacity in the head of the state in the Anglo-Afghanistan. But different areas, encouraging investment in the demands of the independence grew and the Afghanistan’s natural resources, providing duty free assassination of the Amir Habibullah and his son access to the Indian market for Afghanistan’s exports

Future of the Neighborhood Amidst the Geopolitical Instability 133 and advocating the need for a sustained and long- very cautious about the situation in the neighborhood, term commitment to Afghanistan.”5 At this stage, India where not only it has to face China but also Pakistan needs to ensure that the efforts taken up the with whom does not share the same camaraderie. government are more strategic and rational; if done correctly, it can open up a new vista to cooperate India also hopes that the bilateral trade with other Central Asian countries. between the two countries will see a steady rise, especially with the opening of the Chabahar port. This Strategic Implications of Afghanistan for India port connects India, Iran and Afghanistan bypassing As mentioned before, Indo-Afghan relations have Pakistan. Pakistan has always behaved as a trade improved with the signing of the Strategic Partnership blocker in the region, first stalling the trade routes Agreement (SPA).As Afghanistan was undergoing which were envisaged by the SAARC nations. three simultaneous political, security and economic Currently it hinders transit rights of the Afghanistan transitions in 2015, India had put to rest its fears about exports to India, but not from India to Afghanistan, the future by making a long-term commitment to the thus in a way blocking all possible economic activities security and development of Afghanistan and it is in the region. well versed in the history of the nation and the approach till now has worked well but with other all Economic implications of Afghanistan for India countries interfering .6 Indian assistance has always India recognizes the pre-eminence of Afghanistan as been focused on building human capital and a junction of trade routes between central, south and infrastructure, improving security, and strengthening west Asia for 3000 years. It’s crucial for the transit other important sectors of the economy characterizing of goods and services. The bilateral trade at USD its soft power and building people to people bridges. 683.02 million for 2013-14 (US$ 474.25 million export The Heart of Asia - Istanbul Process and the Amritsar and US $ 208.77 million import by India) and $684 Declaration in 2016 is significant between the two million for 2014-15 ($422 million export and $ 262 countries as they were able to address issues like million import by India) is a modest figure going by terrorism and also consented on eliminating non-tariff the actual potential for the region. However, the trade barriers to trade. The countries declared their pledges relations can realize its true potential if the Wagah- and the step as for now, could be articulated as being Attari route is opened for bilateral trade with a way forward in the relationship. The initiative in Afghanistan. 8India after Pakistan is the major export itself is a move to Afghanistan holds strategic destination of Afghanistan. Though transit has been importance because it is the gateway to energy-rich a major block between the trade relations, the situation Central Asian states. “India is looking to ensure that has improved much now. A lot of delegations and other countries in the region favor or at least are business meetings have taken place over the past neutral on its conflict with Pakistan,” says J Alexander few years, and participation in trade expos have also Thier, an expert on Afghanistan at the United States created a more conducive environment for Institute of Peace (USIP). Afghanistan, on the other investments. One can observe that the Indian hand, he says, looks to India as “a potential government has been more than willing to help counterweight in its relationship with Pakistan.”7 Afghanistan. A Recent Conference on “Made in Afghanistan” in July 19-20, 2016 was organized to India’s support has been only limited to supply various traders and business conglomerates. military equipment, such as armored checkpoints and watchtowers. Upgradation of weaponry has never Most of the Indian Diaspora in Afghanistan been on the agenda of the Indian government and its are working as professionals in hospitals, construction, policy towards Afghanistan, and it is likely not to IT firms, NGOs, etc. and Govt. of India sponsored change in the near future, which may come as a projects, Govt. of Afghanistan and UN Missions. contradiction to what U.S. wants Indian role to be in Besides that, various infrastructure projects are either the region- of stepping up in the security department. in the pipeline or are already completed.Mostly these Recently US had indicated that it wants India to send projects are projected as a sense of goodwill from its own troops to be stationed in Afghanistan. India is the Indian government. Ventures like Salma dam, now

134 World Focus March 2018 officially the Afghan-India Friendship Dam, is a that there are more than $1 trillion in mineral deposits hydroelectric and irrigation dam project located on within the borders of Afghanistan. While this may the Hari River of Herat Province in western seem promising, there are many economic, logistical, Afghanistan.Another economic aspect of the cultural, military, and geopolitical issues to resolve relationship between the Afghanistan and India is the before beginning the exploitation of those natural interlinkage with the Central Asian region as well as resources to help lift the country out of its current how the Chinese relationship will pan out in the near state.”12 The natural gas serves the purpose for driving future. Initiatives like poverty alleviation, developing the economy and which is in a lesser amount in the a sound healthcare system, and infrastructure projects Indian subcontinent and even In China which is also as well as encouragement of small scale industries very excited about the prospects. “In October 2014, have been in the pipeline by the Indian government. Beijing hosted the fourth foreign ministers’ meeting These are very crucial if India wants to have a of the Istanbul Process—an international effort stronger foothold in Afghanistan. Another important launched in 2011 to encourage cooperation and aspect of this relationship is that the country is linked coordination between Afghanistan and its neighbors to Central Asia which is very rich in Oil and gas and regional partners.”1313 ZHAO HUASHENG, depository. But India despite being energy resource March 08, 2015, This initiative is organized for the deficient and being one of the friendliest nations to countries who want to play an active role in the the region, is ineffective in expanding its opportunities development of Afghanistan. The conference was and carving out a path for closer cooperation in terms also testimony of what China desires in the of trade as well as transportation of these resources. Afghanistan region. In order to extend its economic clout and also to transform itself in the neighborhood as a major power China’s economic stake has grown, and the it needs to hedge its relationship with Afghanistan. main problem that PRC faces is the security in the This could either be done through soft power region where its workers and professionals have been mechanisms or increasing developmental investments. engaged. As it has also increased its engagement with Central Asia, it is concerned of its borders and also China in the Neighborhood of the Chinese compatriots which work in these Throughout the history of the relationship between region. To ensure their safety it wants to engage with China and Afghanistan trade has remained an Pakistan. The OBOR routes, though are still in the essential ingredient. Later after the South Asian state planning stages and the proposals invariably avoid became independent the relationship grew steadily passage via Afghanistan, concerns about protecting and in November 22, 1963, China and Afghanistan them from any instability is one of the many signed in Beijing the Boundary Treaty between the concerns.China has already invested in the Mes People’s Republic of China and the Kingdom of Aynak Copper mines and Amu Darya oil fields in Afghanistan. “This treaty settled the territorial dispute northern Afghanistan.Chinese ambition flows through over the Afghan-controlled Wakhan on the border the Afghan valley in order to establish its one belt between Badakhshan Province in Afghanistan and one road vision, it needs to have a sound transportation the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China.”9 system in the region and afghanistan follows in the middle to connect the Middle East, Central Asia and The fall of taliban had followed up with the South Asia. One could interpret it as a connecting reestablishment of establishment though it was always platform for a smooth transit for Chinese goods and assumed that “the Chinese had supported the products in the region, to safeguard it from threats, it mujahideen in their training against the Soviet needs to have a concrete setup which could be only occupation.”10 “Since 2001, Beijing has been plausible if China engages more in the Afghanistan diplomatically and economically engaged in territory. Washington and Beijing have followed Afghanistan; however, since the establishment of the parallel policies towards Afghanistan for a number national unity government, it is now slowly becoming of years but now under Trump administration, when practically engaged in Afghan security and defense it wants to recede from the mountains, the engagement affairs as well.”11 “In June 2010, reports estimated

Future of the Neighborhood Amidst the Geopolitical Instability 135 of China seems to bother US and it wants India to essential for Pakistan to protect its interests in the “step up” its role in the Afghanistan region. neighborhood, and it would always want a ‘Pro- Pakistani’ regime in Afghanistan too, and where India Pakistan and the asymmetry with China: threatens its position. India has not only strategic ties China’s is pursuing an ambitious project of connecting but also economic interests. Even the SAARC Pakistani port of Gwadar to Khunjerab and Kashgar. negotiations for free trade have not able to break the Currently it takes around two to three months for the lockjam of free trade in the South Asian region. It Chinese oil to be transported from the Persian Gulf wants to improve its ties in the region but Pakistan to the Chinese coastal cities. , However, the CPEC has always acted as a roadblock even with the transit corridor would facilitate this transportation by reducing with Afghani goods and services. Not only India but the time as well as labour. In this context, the project in the long run Pakistan would also benefit from the has both strategic and economic propositions against whole engagement. However, the immaturity that it India, as on one side it is surrounded by Pakistan and is showing now does not only damage their relationship on the other by China, both of which seem very but also hinders the path of regional integration. If intended in containing India. In this situation it would Pakistan does not cooperate, the likelihood of a be only fitting for India to move across its marked regionally integrated Asia would remain a far fetched neighborhood and seek engagement with countries dream. like Afghanistan, Central Asia etc. Towards enhanced regional cooperation Afghanistan in fact has become a huge asset South Asia is the least connected sub region of the in terms of the whole reaching out programme world. It is an anomaly considering this is a region because it not only shares boundary with Afghanistan having a common history of thousand years and plenty but can also make China’s expansionism which it has people to people interactions. It is not like other envisioned in its whole Belt and road initiative stale. subregions have not shed their past in order to The engagement of India has always been closely integrate for an economic future. For example: The monitored by the Pakistani regime, more so because European union which was roughly integrated as an of its influence in the Afghan region. It is a known economic bloc in the 1960’s, helped the disintegrated fact that India supports the removal of terrorist continent to absorb the effects of the Second World organizations from Afghanistan in order to achieve War which is a great example for the all the South stability. Pakistan on the other hand, from the advent Asian countries. Following its footsteps has many a of the “Taliban government” has been supporting first times been envisioned in the Asian backyard, but the mujahideens and then separatist groups which nothing concrete has come out of the negotiations. have largely attributed to the downfall of Afghanistan. South Asia always gets caught up in regional The recent meeting of the foreign ministers of complications, cross border conflicts and security Afghanistan, Pakistan and China in late of December mistrusts. India’s move of extending itself towards of 2016 denotes the ensuing coalition which China Afghanistan is encouraging in a way that it would be wants to play a major part in. Afghanistan and able to make some inroads in the economic front. Pakistan have shown willingness and the synergy to The narrative of an integrated Southern Asia has to grow with China. The envisaged vision is committed be shaped in order for the countries to find a common towards fulfilling their own domestic goals and aligning ground for negotiations. A lot of opportunities like it with China’s Belt and Road initiative. India’s technical assistance, development of cross border involvement in Afghanistan though is not welcomed networks for better communication, lower tariff rates, by China and Pakistan, they are constrained by their enhancing dialogues among civil society are few of policies. The problem that Pakistan has about the the ways where we can really come together as a Indian role in the Afghan region is not only strategic region, and India and Afghanistan in this stage of the but ideological too. It fears an encirclement where relationship could really push forward the agenda of its own identity would be disseminated, the bedrock integration. The stability of Afghanistan invariably of Pakistani establishment is anti-India rhetoric as depends on the stability of the region and if its well as nationalism based on religion. It becomes neighbors are not cooperating in this regard it would

136 World Focus March 2018 be very difficult even for India to help Afghanistan in matter of Afghanistan belongs to the neighborhood its upliftment. The access to a bigger market and and it would not be viable to look anywhere else. As lower tariffs would eventually be a source for the Defence minister of India on 26 September 2016 reduction of poverty as it has been established that in stated that “Indian contribution to Afghanistan has today’s world the theory of self-sufficiency has been been for a very long time and has been consistently thrown out of the window; no country can survive on developmental issues, Medical assistance is alone in this highly globalized world. The situation also provided by India, So India’s contribution cuts both ways for India as well as for Afghanistan, has been on these grounds, and we shall expand while on one hand Afghanistan has to come out from if necessary.”15 decades of disruption and violence, on the other hand if India has to increase its outreach to other countries India just has to make more active stride in to fotify its stand against China. Due to China’s order to build a comprehensive partnership with encirclement policy through its Belt and Road Afghanistan, who is also more than willing to accept initiative, India has refused to participate in it so far. India’s assistance. Afghanistan is a country which It strongly needs to play a more active role in has had an unfortunate history of being affected by Afghanistan as to counter this encirclement. India cross country terrorism. Given the Pakistani pressure has always been accused of playing a “big brother and its constant interference in the Afghani matters attitude” in its neighborhood. It needs to revamp its and now China’s involvement, the stakes are very narrative so as to take every other country in its stride. high for India. Its role is the region has to be defined This at least would balance equations with its by careful initiatives; while on one side it needs to be neighbors including Afghanistan in the near future. involved in the developmental aspects of the country, on the other side it needs to balance out the growing Conclusion: A way forward interference of Pakistan and China in the The India Afghanistan relations are counted to be neighborhood. There is no clear cut policy implication- one of the most important bilateral issues in the South every actor has to “challenge as well as engage” in Asian region where there are seldom any concrete the current and the developing scenario. If not, history reasons for confrontations but becomes complex with would repeat itself- un unstable Afghanistan would the ensuing regional dynamics. Regional actors like again lead to an unstable South Asia, a detrimental Iran, Central Asia, China, Pakistan and also the US future for India as well as all other Asian countries. which have actively monitored and dictated the policies of Afghanistan till now therefore influence Footnotes India’s policies in the neighbourhood. It might be true 1 Chidanand Rajghatta, Aug 22, 2017,Trump calls for India help in Afghanistan after warning Pakistan, ignoring China, Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump- that India-Afghanistan ties have been lacking calls-for-india-help-in-afghanistan-after-warning-pakistan-ignoring-china/articleshow/ 60178727.cms momentum so far, but it is slowing picking pace. 2By Shahid Ilyas ,Published: December 21, 2017, (retrieved on 25 December),Af-Pak Cooperation is increasing in various avenues like relations and CPEC, The tribune.https://tribune.com.pk/story/1588950/6-af-pak-relations- cpec/ financial aid, infrastructure, training human resources 3 https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/great-game.htm 4 Timothy Nunan, 15/07/2016,The Afghan Story in the History of Indian Geopolitics. https:/ etc. “There is increased pressure on India, /thewire.in/51620/afghanistan-history-india-geopolitics/ particularly from the US, to do more in 5 http://eoi.gov.in/kabul/?0354?000 6 Embassy of India Kabul, Afghanistan information, http://eoi.gov.in/kabul/?0354?000 Afghanistan. First, it was President Donald 7https://www.cfr.org/search?keyword=%20Jayshree%20%20Bajoria %20 8http://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Afghanistan_Dec_ 2016.pdf Trump’s policy speech on South Asia that 9http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn//gxh/cgb/zcgmzysx/yz/1206/1206x1/t356107.htm underlined New Delhi’s central role in helping the 10 Dr. Manzoor Khan Afridi,Pak-China-US Triangle vis-à-vis Soviet Union in Afghan War,Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences MCSER Publishing, Rome-Italy Vol 5 No 20 war-torn country. This was followed by visits to September 2014. 11 Ahmad Bilal Khalil, June 23, 2016,The Rise of China-Afghanistan Security Relations.The India by the US secretaries for Defence and State, diplomat. (https://thediplomat.com/2016/06/the-rise-of-china-afghanistan-security-relations/ with Afghanistan figuring prominently in talks ) 12 By Cindy A. Hurst and Robert Mathers,1st Quarter 2014, Joint Force Quarterly 72, between the two sides.” 14 It is always a good Strategic Implications of the Afghan Mother Lode and China’s Emerging Role. http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/Article/577485/strategic-implications-of-the-afghan- approach to weigh all the options and not to be in a mother-lode-and-china-emerging-role/ haste. It is evident that the US is looking towards 13 ZHAO HUASHENG, March 08, 2015, http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/08/what- is-behind-china-s-growing-attention-to-afghanistan-pub-59286 India but like history is structured, we have and will 14 Talk Point: What more can India do in Afghanistan without provoking Pakistan? https://theprint.in/2017/10/26/talk-point-can-india-afghanistan-without-provoking-pakistan/ continue to follow an independent foreign policy. The 15 http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/no-indian-troops-to-afghanistan-nirmala- sitharaman/article19756568.ece Future of the Neighborhood Amidst the Geopolitical Instability 137 Contributor’s Profile

Dr. Anil Kumar Mohapatra Professor of Political Science, Fakir Mohan University, Balasore, Odisha Anil Kamboj, I. G. (Retd) Former Senior Fellow, IDSA & presently Professor at NDIM, New Delhi Prof. M. B. Alam Professor, Department of Political Science, Jamia Millia Islamia University, New Delhi Reyaz Ahmad Ganaie Assistant Professor, Maulana Azad National Urdu University, Srinagar, J & K Prof. Satish Kumar Head, Pol Science, Central University of Haryana, Mahendargarh, Haryana Dr. Raghvendra Pratap Asst. Professor , Central University of Haryana, Mahendargarh, Haryana Dr. Arunoday Bajpai Associate Professor and Head, Deptt. of Political Science, Agra College, Agra, U.P. Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta Associate Professor, Centre for Political Studies, Central University of South Bihar, Gaya (Bihar) Dr. Dona Ganguly Assistant Professor, Dept. Political Science, The Bhawanipur Education Society College, Kolkata, West Bengal Dr. Rajshekhar Assistant Professor, University Department of History, T.M. Bhagalpur University, Bhagalpur, Bihar Dr. Nivedita Giri Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Kalindi College, University of Delhi, New Delhi Dr. Deepak Yadav Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Kalindi College, University of Delhi, New Delhi Rudra Prasad Sahoo Assistant Professor, CSSEIP, Babasaheb Bhirao Ambedkar University (BBAU), Lucknow, U.P. Dr. Bharti Chhibber Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Delhi, New Delhi Suchismita Khandei Lecturer in Political Science, Odisha Dr. Amulya K Tripathy Editor, Odisha Journal of Political Science and a Senior Analyst of International Relations based in Odisha Dr. Madhumati Deshpande Assistant Professor, School of Law, Christ University, Bangalore, Karnataka Dr. Aparna Assistant Professor, Center for International Relations, Central University of Jharkhand, Ranchi, Jharkhand Dr. Pitam Ghosh Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Bangabasi Evening College, University of Calcutta Dr. Prasanta Sahoo Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Bharati College, University of Delhi, New Delhi Anuradha Oinam Research Scholar, Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament (CIPOD), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Deepanshu Kabdola PhD Candidate in the Department of East Asian Studies, University of Delhi, New Delhi

138 World Focus March 2018 World Focus: 2010-2018

·January 2010 Af-Pak: Anti-Terror Strategies ·February 2010 Changing Bangladesh: New Leap Forward* ·March 2010 Climate Change: Beyond Copenhagen* ·April 2010 US & South Asia* ·May 2010 India: An Economic Power ·June 2010 Why is Gandhi relevant even today ? ·July 2010 Revisioning SAARC* ·August 2010 Russia in the changing World* ·September 2010 China Today* ·October 2010 Re-whetting India’s Look East Policy* ·Nov.-Dec. 2010 (Annual Number) Emerging India’s Foreign Policy* ·January 2011 Rabindranath Tagore* ·February 2011 Buddhism in the Contemporary World* ·March 2011 Disaster Management in India* ·April 2011 South China Sea Dispute: Emerging Developments* ·May 2011 India & Neighbours (Series One) ·June 2011 India’s Neighbourhood Policy: Harmony & Development (SeriesTwo) ·July 2011 US Policy Responses to Developments in the Arab World* ·August 2011 Mahatma Gandhi & Gandhism* ·September 2011 Contemporary China* ·October 2011 Re-emergence of Russia in the horizon?* ·Nov-Dec.2011 (Annual Number) India’s foreign Policy: Perspectives & Prospects* ·January 2012 Pakistan at Crossroads* ·February 2012 Growing Indo-Bangladesh Relations* ·March 2012 SAARC & India* ·April 2012 Re-energizing India - Nepal Relations* (Series I) ·May 2012 Nepal in Transition* (Series II) ·June 2012 Changing Equations in Asia-Pacific & ASEAN Region ·July 2012 Contemporary Korean Peninsula ·August 2012 Swami Vivekananda’s Vision: Lessons for the 21st Century* ·September 2012 China Today ·October 2012 A Glance at India’s Economic Growth* ·November 2012 (Annual Number) UPA & India’s Foreign Policy (Series-1)* ·December 2012 (Annual Number) UPA & India’s Foreign Policy (Series-2)* ·January 2013 Asian Maritime Diplomacy* ·February 2013 India & European Union* ·March 2013 Energy Security: Indian Perspectives* ·April 2013 Dr. B.R. Ambedkar & Social Justice: A National & Global Perspective* ·May 2013 Environment and Sustainable Development* ·June 2013 India & West Asia* ·July 2013 India & Neighbours* ·August 2013 M.N. Roy: The Veteran Indian Internationalist* ·September 2013 India and Afghanistan * ·October 2013 India & Myanmar Relations* ·November 2013 Global Governance & Decentralization* ·December 2013 (Annual Number) India’s Foreign Policy* ·January 2014 Indian Diaspora* ·February 2014 Climate Change* ·March 2014 China in a changing * ·April 2014 Philosophical Thoughts of Buddha, Gandhi & Dr. Ambedkar: Contemporary Relevance* ·May 2014 Ethics & Indian Civilizational Thought: Global Implication* ·June 2014 India & ASEAN* ·July 2014 Disaster Management in India* ·August 2014 India’s Economic Growth* ·September 2014 India & Neighbours * ·October 2014 India’s Quest for Energy Security* ·November 2014 (Annual Number) India’s New Foreign Policy (Series-1)* ·December 2014 (Annual Number) India’s New Foreign Policy (Series-2)* ·January 2015 Oil Diplomacy in Central Asia & West Asia* ·February 2015 Environmental Diplomacy and Sustainable Development* ·March 2015 Makers of Modern India* ·April 2015 India’s Economic Diplomacy* ·May 2015 Energy Security Needs of Rising India* ·June 2015 India & China Relations* ·July 2015 Conflict Zones of the World* ·August 2015 India & Neighbours* ·September 2015 Regional Diplomacy: SAARC, ASEAN & BRICS* ·October 2015 Climate Change* ·November 2015 India’s Foreign Policy - Series 1* ·December 2015 India’s Foreign Policy - Series 2* ·January 2016 Global Politics of Oil in West & Central Asia* ·February 2016 Terrorism and Geopolitics* ·March 2016 India and East Asia* ·April 2016 India’s Economic Diplomacy * ·May 2016 Disaster Management & Mitigation* ·June 2016 Global Turmoils: Peace & Conflict Management* ·July 2016 Ethics in the Contemporary World* ·August 2016 India & Neighbours* ·September 2016 India’s Maritime Diplomacy and China Silk Road* ·October 2016 Climate Change* ·November 2016 India’s Foreign Policy: Series -1* ·December 2016 India’s Foreign Policy: Series -2* ·January 2017 Russia and the World* ·February 2017 Redical Islam & Terrorism* ·March 2017 From Pacific Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Region: Shifts in Global Politics* ·April 2017 One China Principle and Trump’s U.S. Strategy* ·May 2017 Gandhi, Bose & Dr. Ambedkar* ·June 2017 Environment & Sustainable Development: Emerging Challenges* ·July 2017 Unresolved Kashmir Question & Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK)* ·August 2017 Turmoil in Europe & India-EU Ties* ·September 2017 Complexities in Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan* ·October 2017 Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia* ·November 2017 India’s Foreign Policy: Series-1* ·December 2017 India’s Foreign Policy: Series-2* ·January 2018 Emerging Dynamics of Indo-Pacific* ·February 2018 India & Neighbours*

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