EUROPE, A VALUES- BASED POWER POLICY BRIEF 08 MARCH 2018 ITALY’S #PUBLIC OPINIONS #ELECTIONS A CASE OF VICTIMHOOD AND #ITALY A TALE OF MISSED OPPORTUNITY

▪ BEDA ROMANO Il Sole/24 Ore’s Brussels correspondent

In 1981, the then foreign minister of Italy, There are a number of reasons behind a sea Emilio Colombo, and his German counter- change that ultimately could influence how part, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, proposed to the EU evolves in the future. In a nutshell, weaken the veto power of member states in euroscepticism is the reflection of a country the European Community and make a stron- that failed the modernization required by the ger political co-operation possible in . single currency. Two years later the proposal, although slight- Clearly, the way Europe has reacted to the ref- ly watered down compared to the first draft, ugee crisis has provoked resentment in Italy. was supported by the other partners in the The idea of a mandatory relocation of asy- so-called Stuttgart Declaration. Diplomats lum-seekers across the EU member states still remember this event as being one of has fallen through: a number of governments the most stricking example of how Italy was have not complied with the agreement of among the most pro-European countries. 2015. Many Italians feel that their country Since then, Italy has become surprisingly has been left alone in dealing with the arrival eurosceptic. The latest Eurobarometer pub- of thousands of Asian and African migrants lished in the fall of 2017 by the European on its shores. According to Caritas Italiana, a Commission shows that 52 percent of Ital- Catholic non-governmental organization, the ians tend not to trust the EU. On the contrary country has become truly “multicultural” over 34 percent tend to trust it, and 14 percent the last 10 years. Yet, the overall perception in are undecided. Moreover, 64 percent of Ital- the public opinion is that there are many more ians believe that their country’s voice doesn’t migrants in the country that official figures count in Europe. Italy is now among the most show (less than 10 percent of the population). eurosceptic countries in the EU, together with The same misperception applies to the eco- Greece. In 2007, a similar poll showed that 50 nomic situation. Today’s euroscepticism is percent of Italians trusted the European Com- the reflection of a missed opportunity. Italy mission and 53 percent trusted the Europe- was not able to modernize its economy and an Parliament. Ten years earlier, in 1997, 48 its institutions as required by its membership percent of Italians said that they trusted EU to the European Monetary Union. As the euro institutions, while only 27 percent didn’t trust rules out currency devaluations, it requires a their own government.

1 ▪ 3 more competitive economy. Over the last 10 tirees; professional orders are increasingly to 20 years, the European Commission and anachronistic; entrepreneurs’ associations the European Council have insisted on Italy have lost influence and members. Over- that it reform its economy, abolish small and whelmed by non-performing loans and pres- large monopolies, open service and product sured by EU institutions to reduce the debt on markets, liberalize regulated professions, re- their balancesheets, banks can no longer play duce taxes, improve the judicial system and their traditional role of shelling out generous promote good public administration. The credit lines to their political or local clienteles. 2008-2009 financial crisis erupted as Italy In grave crisis, constituencies are fighting for was slow in adapting to the new deal. From their survival, becoming increasingly conser- 2008 to 2017, Italian real gross domestic vative, more than ever an obstacle to change. product fell by around a cumulated 10 per- Meanwhile, many public institutions have lost cent. It could have been worse if small and independence vis a vis the political class. medium-sized companies, the backbone of Among others, the Bank of Italy, the financial Italy’s economy, had not shown daunting re- market regulatory agency CONSOB and the solve. This said, the recession was deeper telecom market regulatory agency AGCOM and longer than in other member states as have been engulfed in recent scandals that it caught the country in transition, still ill pre- have hurt their credibility. pared for the euro and very weak in facing the In this context, euroscepticism is the reflec- global slowdown following the burst of the tion of citizens who attribute to the euro financial bubble. membership a risk of losing acquired rights If euroscepticism has risen in Italy, it is be- and long-standing benefits, using Brussels cause the founding rules of the euro are seen as a scapegoat for the country’s structural as a straightjacket. By pressing the country weaknesses. The political class portrays Ita- to reduce its huge public debt, which remains ly as a victim of “Brussels bureaucrats”, rein- above 130 percent of gross domestic prod- forcing the eurosceptic sentiment among citi- uct, EU partners are in actual fact asking Italy zens. Over the last years, Italian governments to put into question the country’s post-war have put up fights against EU institutions on social order. For decades, public money has a number of issues, seeking exemptions to been used to finance small and large oligop- European rules on files as different as the olies, compensate for wide tax evasion, allow consolidation of public finances, the cut in for private and public inefficiencies, fund ex- non-performing loans, the use of state aid in pensive clienteles, and more generally sup- the economy, the adoption of trade defense port a precarious balance of power among a measures, the reduction in air pollution and myriad of constituencies, or modern guilds. waste landfills. The final aim is to preserve a Pressure from Brussels associated with last- familistic status-quo that rewards tribe mem- ing economic weakness and a competitive bers instead of seeking the interests of all. economic global landscape has reduced the Moreover, in a public debate dominated by ability of the country to use its public debt as social networks and TV talkshows, the media it did in the past to redistribute wealth, albeit are fighting their own war for survival. Repre- in an inefficient way. senting specific interest groups, newspapers have become the sounding board of Italian In the meantime, political, social, economic victimhood, reinforcing these sentiments and professional constituencies are in dire among citizens. Even the recent decision by straits as they are no longer able to meet the the European Council to transfer the Europe- needs and expectations of their members in an Medicines Agency (EMA) from London to an Italian economy that is increasingly drift- Amsterdam, instead of Milan, has provoked a ing apart from the core of Europe and the bout of victimistic nationalism. world’s most competitive economies. Po- litical parties are morally discredited; trade What is surprising is that the eurosceptic sen- unions represent the interests mostly of re- timent continues to dominate even though

2 ▪ 3 recently the EU Commission has yielded to tricht principles--the no-bail out rule and the most demands from Italy, especially concern- no-monetization of debt--have been violated ing the reduction of public debt. Most Italians by member states and the European Central even attribute to EU institutions the dramati- Bank as the eurozone was getting to grips cally high level of youth unemployment (over with the recent financial crisis. In Italy, few op- 35 percent), while this is probably due to an pose EU integration as such, at least publicly. economic system that no longer matches Most see a more federal Europe as a possi- supply and demand and where different con- bility to mutualize the Italian public debt, and stituencies, weakened by economic globaliza- reduce its threat to the Italian economy. Yet, tion and the EU straightjacket but still strong they oppose the transfer of sovereignty that enough to influence the political landscape, comes with a European responsibility in man- have no longer the means to guarantee, albeit aging national public accounts. Rightly so, in an inefficient way, the same level of jobs. Italians fear that handing to Brussels more powers will translate into a stronger scrutiny As a consequence, most Italian political par- of its partners over their tribal society. ties have become eurosceptic. Arguably, some more than others. The two largest Despite a significant change in Italian pro-Eu- main-stream parties--Forza Italia and Partito ropean sentiment since the Colombo-Gen- Democratico--are generally pro-EU, but play scher proposal in the early 1980s, Italy is not into eurosceptic sentiments to remain in tune likely to follow the UK’s example, and decide with the dominant sentiment across Italy. On to leave the EU. Trade links and economic the contrary, the Northern League wants to benefits will always prevent such a dramatic challenge Italy’s euro membership. Attracting step. The fact that the country is a founding both young and old voters who feel left out member of the EU will remain a key feature because of globalization and Italy’s tribal net- of the public discourse, although mostly re- works, the anti-establishment Five Star Move- thorical. As much as the Italian diplomacy will ment wants to resume deficit-spending. It re- try its best to correct and waterdown the ex- mains to be seen whether this party, founded cesses of the political class, the country will by the former actor Beppe Grillo, will spear- continue to wobble through, reforming step head a change in Italy’s economic and social by step, enough probably to keep its partners structure or whether the current economic at bay. It will have little say about the future pick-up will weaken or alter the anti-establish- of the EU as long as its position will remain ment movement as unemployment falls. ambiguous and weak, weighed down among other things by a huge public debt. Ultimate- To be true, Italian euroscepticism is different ly, it will accept further from the ones that dominate in Britain or in as long as it has the impression, rightly or Germany. While in the UK, eurosceptics op- wrongly, that preserving the core of its social pose EU integration and fear a super-state, in structure is less costly than dramatically re- Germany they criticize the way the euro has forming it. been managed, and believe that two Maas- Managing Editor: Sébastien Maillard ▪ The document may be reproduced in part or in full on the dual condi- tion that its meaning is not distorted ON THE SAME TOPIC and that the source is mentioned ▪ The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessa- ▪ Daniel Debomy, Emmanuel Rivière and Arno Husson, “The Italians and Europe, chronicle of disenchantment”, Policy Paper No.217, Institute, February 2018 rily reflect those of the publisher ▪ The Jacques Delors Institute cannot ▪ Pascal Lamy, Sébastien Maillard, Henrik Enderlein and Daniel Debomy, “Evolution of public be held responsible for the use opinions”, Jacques Delors Institute and Jacques Delors Institut - Berlin, September 2017 which any third party may make of the document ▪ Original version ▪ ▪ Daniel Debomy and Alain Tripier, “European public opinion and the EU following the peak of © Jacques Delors Institute the migration crisis”, Policy Paper No.201, Jacques Delors Institute, July 2017

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