Storm Surge Watch and Warning Products (Development through Social Science Efforts)
John Cannon National Weather Service 2015 Maine Beaches Conference July 17, 2015 What is Storm Surge?
Sandy
Storm Surge Contributors Patriot’s Day Storm NEW STORM SURGE FORECAST MAPS Hurricane Arthur July 3-4, 2014 (Quiet Year)
NHC: “Plausible worst case scenario” (10% Exceedance) Example of storm surge forecast Charleston, SC Issued when > 3’ of inundation is forecast Social Science of Storm Surge
* NHC hired Social scientists with task of improving “messaging” to create new storm surge watch/warning products
* Social Scientists and WFO GYX hold discussions and surveys with partners… Emergency Managers…Media…Stakeholders in Maine
Top “Take-Aways” from the Northeast Discussion Groups
”Storm surge” is not a familiar term to many people – People are attuned to tides and are used to hearing “coastal flooding” terminology. Storm surge is generally viewed as anything above high tide. Top 10 “Take-Aways” from the Northeast Discussion Groups
* People rarely evacuate for flooding or storms – There is a general sense of complacency and a lack of preparedness for a major large event – Warning must convey “life Threatening” situation
* Risk communication in Maine happens on a personal and localized level – Even knocking “door to door” to check on people/elderly – Reverse 911 calls employed – Warning must convey “life threatening” situation Top “Take-Aways” from the Northeast Discussion Groups
The storm surge maps need to account for waves
Patriot’s Day Storm, 2007 A Dangerous Combination: As Wave Heights & Storm Tides Increase…the Threat of Coastal Damage Increases
Coastal Flooding and The Relationship between High Storm Tides and Large Ocean Waves
25 Major Flooding 20 15 Moderate Flooding 10 Minor Flooding 5 Splash-over 0 Fresh Water Flooding Wave Height (ft) 10 11 12 13 14 Storm Tide (ft)
Figure 8: The empirical relationship between storm tide, waves and coastal flooding (1980-2007).
Wave Climatology Portland, Maine (2007) Top “Take-Aways” from the Northeast Discussion Groups
The maps need an accompanying textual statement – (one for the public and one for high-end users) that includes information on timing, duration, and probability.
Top “Take-Aways” from the Northeast Discussion Groups
- The maps need to be interactive
- Messaging need to be tied to specific actions Specific actions and Risk Communication
“Confidence Levels” and “Messaging” Top “Take-Aways” from the Northeast Discussion Groups
The maps should be used year round for more than tropical systems. Upcoming Extra-tropical Work
• Beginning in 2017, NOAA proposes the storm surge watch/warning will be expanded for use during extra-tropical storms
• Developing an outreach/marketing plan for addressing the barriers and conflicts that come to light during the audience analysis. – Include fact sheets/media information etc.
• Testing messaging and outreach strategies with their intended audiences to ensure their effectiveness. – Leveraging Sea Grant partnerships Messaging: Hurricane Sandy Hurricane Sandy and Risk Communication FIGURE 2. Drowning deaths attributed to Hurricane Sandy that occurred in the decedent's home (n = 20), in New York state, in relation to the Federal Emergency Management Agency storm surge area and New York City's Evacuation Zone A — October 28–November 30, 2012
Thank You for your time!!! Questions/Comments???