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Value Hierarchies As General Model of Decision-Making and Choice: Steps to the Methodology of Human Behavior Modelling

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Value Hierarchies As General Model of Decision-Making and Choice: Steps to the Methodology of Human Behavior Modelling Value hierarchies as general model of decision-making and choice: steps to the methodology of human behavior modelling Evgeny Zolotarev A dissertation submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy November, 2020 You can share the original download link to this file freely. For other means of redistribution please contact the author at [email protected] or facebook.com/eugzol. When using concepts or technology found in this work, please provide clear and unambiguous reference to the origin. UNIVERSIDAD CENTRAL DE NICARAGUA (UCN) Value hierarchies as general model of decision-making and choice: steps to the methodology of human behavior modelling DISSERTATION Submitted from: Evgeny Zolotarev [personal data] Submitted at: Universidad Central de Nicaragua (UCN) MANAGUA, REPUBLIC OF NICARAGUA, CENTRAL AMERICA International School of Psychology UCN Representative Office Berlin, Germany Submitted on: 7 November, 2020 Evaluators: Prof. Dr. Nandana Nielsen, International School of Psychology, UCN Prof. Dr. Karl Nielsen, International School of Psychology, UCN i Assurance Statement I hereby declare on oath that I have written the submitted dissertation: Value hierarchies as general model of decision-making and choice: steps to the methodology of human behavior modelling independently and without unauthorized assistance. I have not used other than the named tools and scripts. All used parts of other authors either literally or correspondingly are cited. 7 November, 2020 Evgeny Zolotarev ii Abstract This dissertation describes premises and design of the value hierarchy model. The core of the model is the contextualized hierarchical (multi-level) composition of external stimuli and internalized values, which manages some alternative of behavioral activity, which distinguishes this model from other approaches to the similar problem. Three spheres of practical application of the value hierarchy model are discussed: individual coaching work, qualitative research, quantitative research. Empirical basis of ~100 coaching hours and 45 qualitative interviews is used. In coaching work, it is shown how the value hierarchy model could serve as unitary framework for the application of particular techniques, for the general coordination of sessions, and for the measurement of coaching results. Lack of such kind of unitary frameworks and improper application of medical terminology, diagnoses and measurements, arguably (as discussed in this work), leads to the various crises in the sphere of psychotherapy. In qualitative research, it is shown how the value hierarchy model allows to carry out interviews and encode data with distinguished productivity. Technical complexities of the process, however, is pointed out and discussed. In quantitative research, it is shown how the value hierarchy model allows to naturally decompose data into rich set of elements for further statistical analysis. Methodological, theoretical and practical premises of the value hierarchy model form the notion of “human behavior modelling”. On the way of developing that notion several steps are made towards the resolution of the known crises in psychotherapy, behavior economics, technical sciences, development of human-like assistants and artificial intelligence. iii Abbreviations AI: artificial intelligence AGI: artificial general intelligence EAC: eye accessing cue(s) EBM: evidence-based medicine EBPP: evidence-based psychotherapy HBM: human behavior modelling RCT: randomized control trial VH: value hierarchy VHM: value hierarchy model iv Graphic outline of main chapters v Table of contents Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................9 Purpose of Chapter 1 .................................................................................................................10 1.1 Introduction to the topic and research motivation ...............................................................10 1.2 Central problem under consideration ..................................................................................11 1.3 Benefits of the research .......................................................................................................11 1.4 Usage of terminology ..........................................................................................................13 1.4.1 Behavior ........................................................................................................................13 1.4.2 Value and value hierarchy .............................................................................................14 1.4.3 Human behavior model & human behavior modelling .................................................14 1.5 Connections with neurolinguistic psychology .....................................................................17 1.6 Connections with other areas of psychology .......................................................................17 1.7 Hypotheses ..........................................................................................................................18 1.8 Preview of Chapters 2-5 ......................................................................................................18 Literature for Chapter 1 .............................................................................................................19 Chapter 2. Scientific literature ...................................................................................................23 Purpose of Chapter 2 .................................................................................................................24 2.1 Philosophical and methodological studies ...........................................................................24 2.1.1 On a notion of falsification............................................................................................24 2.1.2 Epistemology of G. Bateson..........................................................................................26 2.1.3 C. Jung’s collective unconscious ..................................................................................29 2.2 Psychotherapy studies .........................................................................................................33 2.2.1 Decline in psychotherapy practice and research ...........................................................33 2.2.2 Evidence-based studies .................................................................................................35 2.2.3 Feedback-informed psychotherapy ...............................................................................38 2.2.4 Prediction: neurofeedback psychotherapy ....................................................................40 2.2.5 Proposal: human behavior modelling (for psychotherapy) ...........................................42 2.3 Neurological and biological studies ....................................................................................46 2.3.1 Metacognition, self-regulated learning and performance .............................................46 2.3.2 Dynamic localization of hierarchical choice .................................................................48 2.3.3 Neurology of the unconscious .......................................................................................49 2.4 Psychological studies ...........................................................................................................53 2.4.1 Psychological typing and “spectral typing” ..................................................................53 2.4.2 Subjectivity of the objective (and vice versa) ...............................................................56 2.4.3 Forgotten experiments on “mental imagery” ................................................................57 1 2.4.4 Introspection and nonverbal signals of categorization ..................................................59 2.5 Technical studies .................................................................................................................64 2.5.1 Artificial general intelligence (AGI) .............................................................................64 2.5.2 Security and safety of artificial intelligence (AI) ..........................................................65 2.5.3 Model of choice for artificial intelligence .....................................................................66 2.6 Science and technology studies ...........................................................................................67 2.6.1 Human behavior modelling in the context of inventorship ...........................................67 2.6.2 Inventor archetype .........................................................................................................68 2.6.3 “Levels” of human behavior models .............................................................................70 2.7 Semiotic studies ...................................................................................................................71 2.7.1 Well-formed conceptual schema ...................................................................................71 2.7.2 Strong minimalist thesis ................................................................................................73 2.8 “Modelling” in other fields ..................................................................................................74 2.8.1 Not just “excellence” .....................................................................................................74
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