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Research Article Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on Distributed Hydrological Simulation

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Research Article Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on Distributed Hydrological Simulation Hindawi Publishing Corporation Mathematical Problems in Engineering Volume 2013, Article ID 327374, 8 pages http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/327374 Research Article Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on Distributed Hydrological Simulation Denghua Yan,1 Xiaoliang Shi,1,2 Zhiyong Yang,1 Ying Li,2 Kai Zhao,2 and Yong Yuan1,3 1 Department of Water Resources, State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China 2 Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China 3 College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China Correspondence should be addressed to Xiaoliang Shi; [email protected] Received 5 February 2013; Accepted 27 May 2013 Academic Editor: Yongping Li Copyright © 2013 Denghua Yan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Drought monitoring at large scale is essential for fighting against drought. Aiming at the limitation of acquiring long-time serial soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration for Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), the paper modified the PDSI based on distributed hydrological model on subbasin level in Luanhe river basin, North China. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Calibration and validation results showed good agreement between simulated and measured discharges, and the SWAT model can be used to predict hydrological processes in the study area. Then the simulation results of main hydrologic components were used to establish PDSI. The verification of the drought indices showed that the modified PDSI based onSWAT model and Palmer drought severity index could better describe the characteristics of regional drought evolution in the Luanhe river basin. High drought frequency areas were mainly distributed in the grassland regions of upstream located in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia plateau, and the drought area had a significant upward trend form 1973 to 2010. Compared with the traditional Palmer drought severity index, the modified PDSI could reflect the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improve the physical mechanism of PDSI. The drought monitoring method can provide technical support for comprehensive understanding of drought and effective preventing and relieving of drought disasters. 1. Introduction and various aridity indices [4]. The commonly used drought indices include standardized precipitation index (SPI) [5], Droughtisamajornaturalhazardthatcanhavedevastating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) [6], and surface water impacts on regional agriculture, water resources, and the supply index (SWSI), vegetation condition index [7, 8]. Heim environment, with farreaching impacts in an increasingly [9] gave a comprehensive review of 20th century drought globalized world [1]. Besides, droughts are the world’s costli- indices used in the United States. est natural disasters, causing an average $6–$8 billion in Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is perhaps the globaldamagesannuallyandaffectingmorepeoplethanany most widely used regional drought index for monitoring other form of natural disasters [2]. droughts [10–12]. PDSI was developed by Palmer [13]to It is important to assess and monitor drought due to simulate moisture content of the soil month by month and the consequences and pervasiveness of drought, and various to compare its monthly anomalies at regions having different drought indices had been derived to encapsulate drought climate and seasons [4]. Although referred to as an index of severity on a regional basis and provide information for deci- meteorological drought, the PDSI is based on meteorological sion maker in recent decades [3]. Based on the considerable and soil moisture content, it takes into account precipitation, disagreement that exists about the definition of drought, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture conditions [10], and the the drought indices can be sorted as precipitation indices, PDSIcanbeusedtodeterminethebeginning,ending,and soil moisture indices, water budget indices, and hydrological severity of the drought period; it has been normalized so as 2 Mathematical Problems in Engineering ∘ ∘ ∘ ∘ ∘ to allow comparisons across space and time. However, the 116 E 117 E 118 E 119 E 120 E N PDSI is traditionally calculated by using a two-layer bucket- ∘ 43 type model to obtain data on water balance components. This model does not consider the effects of factors such as the Inner Mongolia N + ++ ∘ spatial heterogeneity of soil, vegetation cover, and topography + + + + + 42 on watershed hydrological processes. Moreover, in present + + + ++ N + ∘ + + + + + relative researches, the calculation of PDSI was mainly based 42 + + + + + on the records of meteorological stations at point scale, have + + ++ + + + + + + + + Liaoning N the limitation of acquiring long-time serial soil moisture ∘ + + + + + + and actual evapotranspiration at large scale, and cannot + + + 41 ++ + + + + + + + + + clearly reflect the regional difference of drought. Besides, the N ++ + ∘ Hebei + + + + PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that 41 + + + + + + ++ responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds + + + + + + + + N incorrectly to global warming in recent decades [14]. ∘ Beijing Distribution hydrological model is increasingly being + 40 N + used to simulate hydrological processes involved in hydrolog- ∘ ical cycle [15]. These models can provide some key hydrologic 40 Tianjin + components of long-time serial and large spatial extent 115∘ 116∘ 117∘ 118∘ 119∘ (soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, etc.) for E E E E E the calculation of PDSI. As such, the accuracy of PDSI Meteorological stations River value could potentially be improved by using distribution Hydrological stations Basin boundary hydrological model rather than the traditional two-layer + Rainfall gauging stations bucket-type model for hydrological accounting. For better reflecting the spatial heterogeneity of regional Figure 1: Location of Luanhe river basin with hydrological and me- teorological stations. drought, the feasibility that integrates the distribution hydro- logicalmodelandPDSIformonitoringdroughtatlarge scale was verified. To achieve this, the paper calibrated and agricultural lands (24.09%). The predominant soil types of the validated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in study area are brown and cinnamon soils. the Luanhe river basin located in North China, where there is a drought-prone area. Then the Palmer drought model was modified based on the simulation results of hydrological 2.2. The Establishment of SWAT Model processes, and the spatial and temporal variation of regional drought was analyzed. The evaluation results based on mod- 2.2.1. SWAT Description. The soil and Water Assessment ified PDSI may provide some scientific support for decision Tool (SWAT) model is a watershed-scale, physically based, makers when formulating drought management policies to continuous-time, and distributed-parameter hydrological alleviate the adverse effects of drought. model that operates on a daily time step and is developed to predict the impact of land management practices on hydrologic and water quality response of complex watersheds 2. Materials and Methods with varying soils, land use, and management conditions [16]. It has several advantages, such as multiple functions, 2.1. Study Area. Luanhe river is the second largest river a modular design, and only a few parameters need to be that separately flows into sea in North China. It originates optimized compared with many other hydrological models from the northern foot of the Bayanguertu Mountain, near [17], so SWAT model was selected in the study. the border between Hebei province and Inner Mongo- In SWAT, a watershed is first divided into a number of lia autonomous region, and finally flows into Bohai Sea subbasins according to the terrain and river channels and (Figure 1). The total length of the river is about 888 km, and then further subdivided into multiple hydrologic response main tributaries have Shandianhe river, Xingzhouhe river, units (HRUs) consisting of unique combinations of land use, Yixunhe river, Wuliehe river, Laoniuhe river, Liuhe river, soils,andtopographyineachbasin.AnHRUisafundamental Puhe river, Sahe river, and Qinglonghe river. spatial unit upon which SWAT simulates the water balance Luanhe river basin is located in the north-eastern part of 2 [16]. The runoff, sediment, and nutrient loadings from each North China plain, and has a drainage area of 44,750 km HRU are calculated separately and then aggregated at the with elevations ranging from 2 to 2229 m (the average subbasin level and routed to the associated reach and to the elevation is 911 m). The basin is characterized by a typical basin outlet through the channel network. temperate continental climate, with mean annual precipita- The model provides two methods for estimating surface tion ranging from 400 mm to 700 mm with 67–76% falling in runoff:oneisthecurvenumbermethoddevelopedbytheSoil June through September, and the mean annual temperature ∘ Conservation Service (SCS) of the United States Department ranges from 5 to 12 C. The multiannual natural runoff of of Agriculture and the other is the Green-Ampt
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