Waterloo Foundation Oriel College
Founded 1326; fifth oldest college in Oxford How will Africa’s forests look and function in the 21st century as a consequence of climate change, and how can management and planning influence such a future? IPCC projections for 21st century Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
10
) Observed 1 - Projected A1B Models Average
9 A1FI Models Average (PgCy A1T Models Average A2 Models Average B1 Models Average 8 B2 Models Average Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate 7 projections
6 Fossil Fossil FuelEmission 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Time (y)
Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010 21st century warming in an Earth history context Trends in mean temperature in tropical rainforest regions 1975-1998
SE Amazonia C America S Congo W Indones Cameroon SW Amazonia C Amazonia W Africa SW India E Indonesia N Congo NE Amazonia NW Amazonia
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Rate of Temperature Change (oC/decade)
Malhi and Wright (2004), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions TrendsFigure in14 mean precipitation in tropical rainforest regions 1975-1998
Cent America Cent Amazonia W Malesia SW Amazonia Australia E Malesia Cameroon SE Amazonia S Congo N Congo SW India W Africa NW Amazonia
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Precipitation change (%/decade)
Malhi and Wright (2004), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions
44 Conference outline
• All talks are 20 minutes long, with 20 minutes for discussion • Please keep to time - the discussion is essential to the success of the conference • At the end of each day there is a panel discussion and (on days 1-2) a poster session
Day 1: Overview and history Introduction to African rainforests The history of human interactions with climate and forests
Day 2: Climate change and forest response Climate change projections for Africa The effects of contemporary change on forest structure and function
Day 3 Navigating the pressures of the 21st century Deforestation, logging and hunting: direct pressures on the African tropical forests Forest conservation in the 21st century: potential and challenges
• How do African rainforests interact with climate? • What are the likely patterns of climate change in Africa? • How has the history and prehistory of African rainforests affected their likely response to climate change? • Are there signals how how African forests are changing in response to ongoing climate change?
Can we identify regions of particular vulnerability and resilience to climate change?
How do we maximize adaptation and resilience?
How can conservation and development priorities be matched with maximising adaption to climate change?
What do we need to know? Outputs
Podcasts of presentations
Synthesis paper: target for Science
Special issue of a journal: e.g. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Possible conversion to book?
Policy briefing summary notes
RSTB_363_1498.qxp 3/28/08 5:07 PM Page 1
P
h ISSN 0962-8436
i
l
.
T
r
a
n
s volume 363
.
R
.
S
o
27 May 2008 c number 1498
.
B
. .
volume 363 number 1498 pages 1725–1932 |
v
o
l pages 1725–1932
.
3
6
Climate change and the fate of the Amazon 3
n
Papers of a Theme Issue compiled and edited by Yadvinder Malhi, Richard Betts and o In this issue
.
Timmons Roberts 1
4
9
8 Climate change and the fate of the Amazon
Preface 1727 Interactions between rainfall, Water recycling by Amazonian
Y. Malhi, T. Roberts & R. A. Betts deforestation and fires during recent vegetation: coupled versus uncoupled p
p Papers of a Theme Issue compiled and edited by Yadvinder Malhi, Richard Betts and Timmons Roberts years in the Brazilian Amazonia 1779 vegetation–climate interactions 1865
.
Review. The future of the L. E. O. C. Aragão et al. S. A. Cowling, Y. Shin, E. Pinto 1
Amazon: new perspectives from 7 & C. D. Jones climate, ecosystem and social Fire-mediated dieback and 2
5 sciences 1729 compositional cascade in an Effects of large-scale Amazon forest – R. A. Betts, Y. Malhi & J. T. Roberts degradation on climate and air 1
Amazonian forest 1787 9
quality through fluxes of carbon 3 Interactions among Amazon land J. Barlow & C. A. Peres dioxide, water, energy, mineral dust 2 use, forests and climate: prospects
|
Fire, climate change and biodiversity and isoprene 1873 for a near-term forest tipping 2
in Amazonia: a Late-Holocene R. Betts, M. Sanderson & 7
point 1737
perspective 1795 S. Woodward M D. C. Nepstad, C. M. Stickler,
M. B. Bush, M. R. Silman, a B. Soares-Filho & F. Merry Conservation strategies to mitigate C. McMichael & S. Saatchi y impacts from climate change Climate change, biofuels and 2 Human dimensions of climate change: in Amazonia 1881 0 eco-social impacts in the Brazilian 0 the vulnerability of small farmers T. J. Killeen & L. A. Solórzano Amazon and Cerrado 1747 8 in the Amazon 1803 Review. Road building, land use D. Sawyer E. S. Brondizio & E. F. Moran and climate change: prospects for Amazon Basin climate under global Review. Effects of rising temperatures environmental governance in warming: the role of the sea surface and [CO ] on the physiology of the Amazon 1889 temperature 1753 2 C
tropical forest trees 1811 S. Perz et al. l
i P. P. Harris, C. Huntingford & J. Lloyd & G. D. Farquhar m Environmental policy-making networks
P. M. Cox a
The changing Amazon forest 1819 and the future of the Amazon 1897 t An objective tropical Atlantic sea e
O. L. Phillips, S. L. Lewis, T. R. Baker, M. C. Lemos & J. T. Roberts surface temperature gradient c K.-J. Chao & N. Higuchi h Taking things public: a contribution index for studies of south a
Amazon dry-season climate Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene to address human dimensions of n variability and change 1761 climate upon Amazonian forests 1829 environmental change 1903 g
e
F. E. Mayle & M. J. Power D. S. Alves
P. Good, J. A. Lowe, M. Collins a
& W. Moufouma-Okia Drought effects on litterfall, wood Review. Navigating Amazonia under n production and belowground uncertainty: past, present and future d Observed change of the standardized
t precipitation index, its potential carbon cycling in an Amazon forest: environmental governance 1911 h results of a throughfall reduction E. Boyd e cause and implications to future experiment 1839 f climate change in the Amazon Generating carbon finance through a P. M. Brando et al. t region 1767 avoided deforestation and its e
W. Li, R. Fu, R. I. N. Juárez The fate of assimilated carbon during potential to create climatic, o
f
& K. Fernandes drought: impacts on respiration in conservation and human
t
Amazon rainforests 1849 development benefits 1917 h
Hydro-climatic and ecological e P. Meir, D. B. Metcalfe, A. C. L. Costa J. Ebeling & M. Yasué
behaviour of the drought of A & R. A. Fisher Amazonia in 2005 1773 Better RED than dead: paying the m
J. A. Marengo, C. A. Nobre, To wards quantifying uncertainty in people for environmental services a J. Tomasella, M. F. Cardoso & predictions of Amazon 'dieback' 1857 in Amazonia 1925 z
o
M. D. Oyama C. Huntingford et al. A. Hall n
The world’s longest running international science journal Founded in 1660, the Royal Society is the independent scientific academy of the UK, dedicated to promoting excellence in science journals.royalsociety.org Registered Charity No 207043 Published in Great Britain by the Royal Society, 27 May 2008 6–9 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AG