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What's on the Table… News of the Day… Daybreak Malaysia May 22, 2012 KLCI 1,538.91 Gainers/Losers… Turnover Regional Indices (+6.45pts /+0.42% ) Gainers 385 814m units / RM1,110 KLCI 1,539 Losers 306 3m avg. - RM1,642m FSSTI 2,790 - May futures 1537.0 (+0.69% ) Unchanged 301 JCI 3,940 - June futures 1535.0 (+0.62% ) SET 1,135 HSI 18,922 Charts & Statistics What’s on the Table… Tan Chong Motor Holdings - In reverse gear Index Chart FBMKLCI Index Though earnings should improve as supply recovers, Tan Chong’s 1Q12 core net 1700 profit was way below expectations, at 13% of our full-year projection and 12% of 1650 consensus numbers. The high effective tax rate and A&P spend were to blame. 1600 1550 We are cutting EPS for a higher tax rate and lower margins, leading to a fall in 1500 our SOP-based target price. We downgrade the stock from Neutral to 1450 Underperform. The share price has done well, rising 10% YTD vs. the KLCI’s 1400 1350 1%. As few meaningful rerating catalysts are in sight, investors should lock in 1300 profits. We like DRB for exposure to the sector. May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Source: Bloomberg Telco - Fixed Line - Maxis’s broadband broadside The recent deep cuts in Maxis's fibre broadband price were a negative surprise Terence Wong CFA T (60) 3 20849689 to us. The telco slashed its price by 46%, undercutting TM’s entry-level plan by E [email protected] 21% and equivalent plan by 41%. But we are not overly concerned about this because Maxis cannot sustain this price. We think that TM will not respond to Maxis’s new promotion unless its growth slows sharply. The sector remains a Market Indices… Neutral. TM remains an Outperform and our top pick with an unchanged Close % change YTD (% chg) FBMKLCI 1,539 0.4 0.5 DCF-based target price. Maxis is a Neutral as its near-term earnings pressure is FBM100 10,313 0.4 (0.0) FBM SC 11,545 0.2 (1.1) balanced by attractive dividends. FBMMES 4,232 0.1 4.0 Dow 12,504 1.1 2.3 SP Setia - Setia Mall delivers the goods Nasdaq 2,847 2.5 9.3 FSSTI 2,790 0.4 5.4 The crowds that thronged SP Setia’s first shopping mall when it opened last FTSE-100 5,304 0.7 (4.8) Hang Seng 18,922 (0.2) 2.6 week suggest that it should be a major attraction for the Shah Alam-Klang area. JCI 3,940 (1.0) 3.1 KOSPI 1,799 0.9 (1.5) Committed tenancy is 100% and rentals are in the low-teens, a commendable Nikkei 225 8,634 0.3 2.1 feat for any mall. The new mall will be a boost to property values in Bandar PCOMP 4,954 1.5 13.3 SET 1,135 (1.7) 10.7 Setia Alam and will help drive SP Setia’s earnings growth. We retain our Shanghai 2,348 0.2 6.8 Trading Buy call and valuation basis of parity with its FD RNAV of RM4.30. TWSE 7,192 0.6 1.7 The stock is not an outperform due to the property sector’s sensitivity to Top Actives… election risks. RM % change Turnover (m) SMI 0.265 35.9 44.684 Autos - April vehicle sales – nearing a turning point SKPETRO 1.940 (1.0) 32.736 AGLOBAL 0.170 0.0 32.161 ASIAEP 0.050 11.1 22.754 Mah Sing Group - Another building block in place JCY 1.440 (2.0) 22.721 ASUPREM 0.185 (2.6) 17.859 Xingquan International - Cooling its heels NICORP 0.400 1.3 17.332 ASIAEP-WB 0.020 33.3 14.009 Shipping Monitor - Container spot rates ease further Economic Statistics… Economic Update - Mar leading index – Back in the slow lane Close % change US$/Euro 1.2818 0.30 RM/US$ (Spot) 3.129 (0.16) News of the Day… RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 3.1791 (0.54) OPR (% ) 3.00 3.45 • MMC-Gamuda say no time extension to complete Ipoh-Padang Besar Double Track BLR (% , CIMB Bank) 6.60 0.00 GOLD ( US$/oz) 1593.07 0.01 • UAC takeover offer at RM4.30/share by Boustead Holdings WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 92.57 1.19 • Malaysia Airline Systems is said to have re-negotiated its catering contracts CPO spot price (RM/tonne) 3,096 0.85 • Salcon Bhd is on the lookout for more acquisition opportunities in China • China bypass Wall Street buying US government debt, go straight to US Treasury? • Germany/France pledged to do whatever was needed to keep Greece in eurozone? Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES. INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA May 22, 2012 Global Economic News… China, holder of US$1.17tr of US Treasuries, can now bypass Wall Street when buying US government debt and go straight to the US Treasury, in what is the Treasury's first-ever direct relationship with a foreign government, according to documents viewed by Reuters. (Reuters) Japan’s all-industry activity index fell 0.3% mom in Mar (-0.1% in Feb), the third consecutive month of decline and worse than economists’ forecast of a 0.1% fall largely on the back of contraction in the construction sector. On a yoy basis, the measure stood at 5.5% in Mar (1.6% in Feb). (RTTNews) Japan’s leading index rose to a revised 96.4 in Mar (96.1 in Feb; 96.6 in the initial estimate), whilst the coincident index climbed to 96.7 (95.2 in Feb; 96.5 in the initial estimate). The lagging index came in at 86.7 (86.3 in Feb), in line with the initial estimate. (RTTNews) Japan is in talks with Myanmar on an investment treaty, with Tokyo eyeing terms to help its companies establish themselves in the isolated nation as it embraces democratic reforms. (AFP) Eurozone construction output rose 12.4% mom in Mar (a revised -10.4% in Feb), the fastest rate in at least a decade due to improved weather from Feb’s harsh climate, whilst on a yoy basis, the measure fell 3.8% (-12.9% in Feb). (Dow Jones) Germany and France pledged to do whatever was needed to keep Greece in the eurozone, with French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici calling on Europe to support investment and economic growth in Greece “at a time when it is going through a violent recession.” (AFP) India's finance ministry has agreed to pay 385bn rupees in additional cash subsidies to state-run fuel retailers for selling fuel below cost last financial year, a senior government official said. (WSJ) Standard & Poor’s holds that foreign investment in Indonesia is being hampered by bureaucracy, corruption, legal uncertainty, infrastructure deficiencies and inflexible labour markets, maintaining the country’s sovereign debt at junk on the nation’s failure to reduce the fuel subsidy, among its concerns over government policy. (Business Times) The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) has revised down its 2012 domestic motorcycle sales forecast to about 8.4m units from 9m units, due to slowing domestic demand. (Bisnis Indonesia) The Indonesian government has spent just over 10% of the total 2012 capital spending budget of Rp168.87tr in 1Q12, and aims to disburse 25% of capital spending by the end Jul, leaving 75% to be spent in 2H12. (Jakarta Post) 2 May 22, 2012 Thailand’s economy grew 0.3% yoy in 1Q12 (-8.9% in 4Q11), whilst on a qoq basis, GDP grew 11% after seasonal adjustment (-10.8% in 4Q11), thanks to recovery from the floods and the government’s stimulus measures to alleviate high living costs. The National Economic and Social Development Board also maintained its optimistic 5.5-6.5% GDP growth for 2012 and urged the Bank of Thailand not to tighten monetary policy early. (AFP, The Nation) Thailand, the world's biggest rubber exporter, plans to buy more than 10,000 tonnes on the Tokyo and Shanghai exchanges to boost prices, said Rubber Estate Organisation managing director Chanachai Plengsiriwat. (The Nation) Thai Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom announced that foreign countries are keen to make government-to-government purchases of rice from Thailand to the tune of over 2m tonnes this year. (Thai Financial Post) Vietnam’s growth targets for 2012 will be kept unchanged at 6-6.5% although the economy has encountered many problems in the first few months, said Nguyen Hanh Phuc, chairman of the National Assembly Office. (The Saigon Times) It is too soon to conclude that Vietnam has entered an economic downturn, as the State budget revenue has not been affected much, said, National Assembly Financial and Budgetary Committee chairman Phung Quoc Hien. (The Saigon Times) The Philippine government posted a record budget surplus of PP31.02bn in Apr, bringing the 4M12 deficit to PP2.88bn, less than 3% of the PP109.34bn the government intends to spend on top of the national budget in the first semester. (Philippine Daily Inquirer) Malaysian Economic News… The leading index (LI) decreased 0.5% mom in Mar (+1.7% mom in Feb). The coincident index (CI) increased 0.9% mom in Mar (+3.6% mom in Feb) while the lagging index rose 1.3% mom (unchanged in Feb). The level of diffusion index for both LI and CI remain above 50%, suggesting that the Malaysian economy will continue to expand albeit at a moderate rate in the near term.
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