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Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
Understanding Inflation!Indexed Bond Markets
Understanding In‡ation-Indexed Bond Markets John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, and Luis M. Viceira1 First draft: February 2009 This version: May 2009 1 Campbell: Department of Economics, Littauer Center, Harvard University, Cambridge MA 02138, and NBER. Email [email protected]. Shiller: Cowles Foundation, Box 208281, New Haven CT 06511, and NBER. Email [email protected]. Viceira: Harvard Business School, Boston MA 02163 and NBER. Email [email protected]. Campbell and Viceira’s research was sup- ported by the U.S. Social Security Administration through grant #10-M-98363-1-01 to the National Bureau of Economic Research as part of the SSA Retirement Research Consortium. The …ndings and conclusions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of SSA, any agency of the Federal Government, or the NBER. We are grateful to Carolin P‡ueger for ex- ceptionally able research assistance, to Mihir Worah and Gang Hu of PIMCO, Derek Kaufman of Citadel, and Albert Brondolo, Michael Pond, and Ralph Segreti of Barclays Capital for their help in understanding TIPS and in‡ation derivatives markets and the unusual market conditions in the fall of 2008, and to Barclays Capital for providing data. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, April 2-3, 2009. We acknowledge the helpful comments of panel members and our discussants, Rick Mishkin and Jonathan Wright. Abstract This paper explores the history of in‡ation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990’suntil 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the …nancial crisis of 2008. -
Notes and Sources for Evil Geniuses: the Unmaking of America: a Recent History
Notes and Sources for Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America: A Recent History Introduction xiv “If infectious greed is the virus” Kurt Andersen, “City of Schemes,” The New York Times, Oct. 6, 2002. xvi “run of pedal-to-the-medal hypercapitalism” Kurt Andersen, “American Roulette,” New York, December 22, 2006. xx “People of the same trade” Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, ed. Andrew Skinner, 1776 (London: Penguin, 1999) Book I, Chapter X. Chapter 1 4 “The discovery of America offered” Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy In America, trans. Arthur Goldhammer (New York: Library of America, 2012), Book One, Introductory Chapter. 4 “A new science of politics” Tocqueville, Democracy In America, Book One, Introductory Chapter. 4 “The inhabitants of the United States” Tocqueville, Democracy In America, Book One, Chapter XVIII. 5 “there was virtually no economic growth” Robert J Gordon. “Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds.” Policy Insight No. 63. Centre for Economic Policy Research, September, 2012. --Thomas Piketty, “World Growth from the Antiquity (growth rate per period),” Quandl. 6 each citizen’s share of the economy Richard H. Steckel, “A History of the Standard of Living in the United States,” in EH.net (Economic History Association, 2020). --Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.W. Norton, 2016), p. 98. 6 “Constant revolutionizing of production” Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx, Manifesto of the Communist Party (Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1969), Chapter I. 7 from the early 1840s to 1860 Tomas Nonnenmacher, “History of the U.S. -
Equilibrium Analysis in the Behavioral Neoclassical Growth Model
Equilibrium Analysis in Behavioral One-Sector Growth Models* Daron Acemoglu† and Martin Kaae Jensen‡ December 12, 2020 Abstract Rich behavioral biases, mistakes and limits on rational decision-making are often thought to make equilibrium analysis much more intractable. We establish that this is not the case in the context of one-sector growth models such as Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans or Aiyagari models. We break down the response of the economy to a change in the environment or policy into two parts: the direct response at the given (pre-tax) prices, and the equilibrium response which plays out as prices change. Our main result demonstrates that under weak regularity conditions, re- gardless of the details of behavioral preferences, mistakes and constraints on decision-making, the long-run equilibrium will involve a greater capital-labor ratio if and only if the direct re- sponse (from the corresponding consumption-saving model) involves an increase in aggregate savings. One implication of this result is that, from a qualitative point of view, behavioral biases matter for long-run equilibrium if and only if they change the direction of the direct response. We show how to apply this result with the popular quasi-hyperbolic discounting preferences, self-control and temptation utilities and systematic misperceptions, clarifying the conditions under which usual comparative statics hold and those under which they are reversed. Keywords: behavioral economics, comparative statics, general equilibrium, neoclassical growth. JEL Classification: D90, D50, O41. *We thank Xavier Gabaix for very useful discussion and comments. Thanks also to Drew Fudenberg, Marcus Hagedorn, David Laibson, Paul Milgrom and Kevin Reffett, as well as participants at the TUS-IV-2017 conference in Paris, and seminar participants at Lund University and the University of Oslo for helpful comments and suggestions. -
Cyclic Issue 32.Pdf
1 Cyclic Defrost Magazine Issue 32 | July 2013 www.cyclicdefrost.com Stockists Founder Contents The following stores stock Cyclic Defrost although Sebastian Chan 04 Editorial | Sebastian Chan arrival times for each issue may vary. Editors 06 Cover Designer | Jonathan Key NSW Alexandra Savvides 12 This Thing | Samuel Miers Black Wire, Emma Soup, FBi Radio, Goethe Shaun Prescott 16 The Longest Day | Chris Downton Institut, Mojo Music, Music NSW, Pigeon Ground, Sub-editor 20 Rise of the tape | Kate Carr The Record Store, Red Eye Records, Repressed Luke Telford 26 The Necks | Tony Mitchell Records, Title Music, Utopia Art Director 34 Arbol | Christopher Mann VIC Thommy Tran 40 Cyclic Selects | Bob Baker-Fish Collectors Corner Curtin House, Licorice Pie, Advertising latest reviews Polyester Records, Ritual Music and Books, Wooly Sebastian Chan Now all online at www.cyclicdefrost.com/blog Bully Advertising Rates QLD Download at cyclicdefrost.com Butter Beats, The Outpost, Rocking Horse, Taste-y Printing SA Unik Graphics B Sharp Records, Big Star Records, Clarity Records, Website Mr V Music, Title Music Adam Bell and Sebastian Chan WA Web Hosting 78 Records, Dadas, Fat Shan Records, Junction Blueskyhost Records, Mills Records, Planet Music, The Record www.blueskyhost.com Finder, RTRFM Cover Design TAS Jonathan Key Fullers Bookshop, Ruffcut Records Issue 32 Contributors NT Adrian Elmer, Alexandra Savvides, Bianca de Vilar, Bob Baker Fish, Chris Downton, Christopher Mann, Doug Happy Yess Wallen, Jonathan Key, Joshua Meggitt, Joshua Millar, ONLINE Kate Carr, Kristian Hatton, Luke Bozzetto, Samuel Miers, Twice Removed Records Stephen Fruitman, Tony Mitchell, Wayne Stronell, Wyatt If your store doesn't carry Cyclic Defrost, Lawton-Masi. -
FE Guerra-Pujol* More Than Fifty Years Ago Ronald Coase Published
MODELLING THE COASE THEOREM F E Guerra-Pujol* More than fifty years ago Ronald Coase published ‘The Problem of Social Cost’. In his paper, Professor Coase presents an intriguing idea that has since become known among economists and lawyers as the ‘Coase Theorem’. Unlike most modern forms of economic analysis, however, Coase’s Theorem is based on a verbal argument and is almost always proved arithmetically. That is to say, the Coase Theorem is not really a theorem in the formal or mathematical sense of the word. Our objective in this paper, then, is to remedy this deficiency by formalizing the logic of the Coase Theorem. In summary, we combine Coase’s intuitive insights with the formal methods of game theory. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 180 II. BRIEF BACKGROUND: THEORETICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE COASE THEOREM .................................................................................... 180 III. COASE’S ARITHMETICAL MODELS OF THE COASE THEOREM (STRAY CATTLE AND RAILWAY SPARKS) ................................................ 182 1. Stray Cattle ..................................................................................... 182 2. Railway Sparks ............................................................................... 184 3. Some Non-Arithmetical Models of Coase’s Theorem ........................... 185 IV. COASIAN GAMES ...................................................................................... 189 1. A Two-Player Coasian -
Georgy Egorov
GEORGY EGOROV Curriculum Vitae January 2013 Dept. of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences Ph: +1-847-467-2154 Kellogg School of Management Fax: +1-847-467-1220 Northwestern University [email protected] Personal Born October 12, 1979, in Moscow Russian citizen, U.S. permanent resident Academic positions 2010 – Assistant Professor of Managerial Economics, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University 2010 – Faculty Research Fellow, NBER 2009 – 2010 Senior Lecture & Jacobs Scholar (tenure-track), Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Higher education 2005 – 2009 Ph.D. in Economics, Harvard University 2005 – 2008 M.A. in Economics, Harvard University 2001 – 2003 M.A. in Economics (cum laude), New Economic School, Moscow majors in Economic Policy, Finance, Managerial Economics 1996 – 2001 M.S. in Mathematics (summa cum laude), Moscow State University, Dept. of Mechanics and Mathematics Research interests Political economy, economic theory, game theory Teaching experience 2011 – Social Choice and Voting Models (graduate) 2010 – Values and Crisis Decision-Making (part-time MBA program) 2006-2008 TA at Harvard University: Contract Theory (graduate), Economic Theory (graduate), Game Theory in Economics (undergraduate) 2003-2004 TA at New Economic School: Political Economy, Auction Theory (both graduate) 2003-2004 TA, then lecturer, State University of the Humanities (Moscow): Public Economics (undergraduate) Other employment and education 2007 – 2009 Research Assistant (Harvard, MIT, NBER) 2003 – 2005 -
Why Did the West Extend the Franchise?: Democracy, Inequality and Growth in Historical Perspective
WHYDID THEWEST EXTEND THEFRANCHISE? DEMOCRACY,INEQUALITY,AND GROWTHIN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE* DARON ACEMOGLU AND JAMES A. ROBINSON During thenineteenth century mostWestern societies extended voting rights, adecisionthat led tounprecedented redistributive programs. We argue that these politicalreforms can be viewed as strategic decisions by the political elite to preventwidespread social unrest and revolution. Political transition, rather than redistributionunder existing political institutions, occurs becausecurrent trans- fersdo not ensure future transfers, while the extension of the franchise changes futurepolitical equilibria and acts as a commitmentto redistribution. Our theory alsooffers a novelexplanation for the Kuznets curve inmany Western economies duringthis period, with the fall in inequality following redistribution due to democratization. I. INTRODUCTION Thenineteenth century was aperiodof fundamental political reformand unprecedentedchanges in taxation and redistribu- tion.Britain, forexample, was transformedfrom an ‘‘oligarchy’’ runby an eliteto a democracy.Thefranchise was extendedin 1832 and thenagain in 1867 and 1884, transferringvoting rights toportionsof the society with noprevious political representation. Thedecades afterthe political reformswitnessed radical social reforms,increased taxation, and theextension of educationto the masses.Moreover, as notedby Kuznets,inequality ,whichwas previouslyincreasing, started todecline during this period:the Gini coefficientfor income inequality in England and Waleshad risenfrom -
Kennewick Pro Rodeo Champions
IN THIS ISSUE: • Pro Rodeos & World Standings, pg 3 • Glen Rose Summer Classic, Glen Rose, TX, pg 15 • Triangle Cross Classic, McCook, NE, pg 21 • Glen Wood Memorial, Salina, UT, pg 38 • Legends Of The South, Perry, GA, pg 48 AUGUST 31, 2021 // Volume 15: Issue 35 • Barrel Of Gold, Silesia, MT, pg 52 Published Weekly, online at www.BarrelRacingReport.com - Since 2007 KENNEWICK PRO RODEO CHAMPIONS SR Industry Titan & Destri Devenport — page 2 TRIANGLE CROSS GLEN WOOD CLASSIC Streakin On Fame MEMORIAL & Rose Hildebrandt Hello Stella — page 21 & Sharin Hall — page 38 Destri Devenport & SR Industry Titan Soar At Horse Heaven Kennewick Roundup By Tanya Randall Destri Devenport and SR Industry Titan, owned by Tom & Nick Wylie, have been on a hot streak in the Northwest. KENNEWICK PRO RODEO CHAMPIONS Together they’ve won three rodeos in the past two weeks, their SR Industry Titan & Destri Devenport biggest victory coming last week with a $8,965 victory at the $20,000-added Horse Heaven Kennewick Roundup in Washington. Flit Bar They also split second at the $10,000-added Kitsap Stampede in Fire Water Flit Bremerton, Washington, for total weekend earnings of $11,634. Slash J Harletta “I think he’s been run more in the last couple months than he has in his whole life, but he’s gotten stronger and stronger,” said Firewaterontherocks Devenport. The Escondido, California, barrel racer started running Ronas Ryon the 8-year-old stallion after the Fourth of July run. Rock N Roll Rona SI 105 SI 86 Their first run together was at Nephi, Utah, where the fresh Navas Bolder Girl from the breeding farm stallion playfully hopped his way through SI 104 the pattern. -
Download CES and Research Data Centers Research Report
Center for Economic Studies and Research Data Centers Research Report: 2013 Research and Methodology Directorate Issued May 2014 U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU census.gov MISSION The Center for Economic Studies partners with stakeholders within and outside the U.S. Census Bureau to improve measures of the economy and people of the United States through research and innovative data products. HISTORY The Center for Economic Studies (CES) was established in 1982. CES was designed to house new longitudinal business databases, develop them further, and make them available to qualified researchers. CES built on the foundation laid by a generation of visionaries, including Census Bureau executives and outside academic researchers. Pioneering CES staff and academic researchers visiting the Census Bureau began fulfilling that vision. Using the new data, their analyses sparked a revolution of empirical work in the economics of industrial organization. The Census Research Data Center (RDC) network expands researcher access to these important new data while ensuring the secure access required by the Census Bureau and other providers of data made available to RDC researchers. The first RDC opened in Boston, Massachusetts, in 1994. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many individuals within and outside the Census Bureau contributed to this report. Randy Becker coordinated the production of this report and wrote, compiled, or edited its various parts. Matthew Graham and Robert Pitts authored Chapter 2, C. J. Krizan authored Chapter 3, and Lucia Foster, Todd Gardner, Christopher Goetz, Cheryl Grim, Henry Hyatt, Mark Kutzbach, Giordano Palloni, Kristin Sandusky, James Spletzer, and Alice Zawacki all con- tributed to Chapter 4. -
James Kenneth Galbraith [email protected] Curriculum Vitae
James Kenneth Galbraith [email protected] Curriculum Vitae Current Position: Lloyd M. Bentsen, Jr. Chair in Government/ Business Relations, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, and Professor of Government, The University of Texas at Austin. Experience: Chair, LBJ School Budget Council, 2002-2004. Director, Ph.D. program in Public Policy, 1995-1997; Professor, LBJ School of Public Affairs, 1990-2002, Associate Professor, 1986 - 1990; Visiting Associate 1985-86. Visiting Scholar, The Brookings Institution, 1985. Executive Director, Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, 1981 - 1982; Deputy Director, 1983 - 1984. Economist, Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, United States House of Representatives, 1975-76 and 1977-80. Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, 1979-1980. Teaching Subjects: Inequality and Development; International Economics; Technical Change and Financial Crisis; Economics for Policy; History of Economic Thought. Research Fields: Inequality; Economic policy. Degrees: Почетного доктора наук, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 2017 Docteur Honoris Causa, Université Pierre Mendes-France, October 2010 Ph.D., Yale University, May 1981 M. Phil., Yale University, May 1978 M.A., Yale University, December 1977 A.B., Magna Cum Laude, Harvard University, June 1974. Academy: Socio Straniero dell’Accademia dei Lincei - Classe di Scienze Morali, Storiche e Filologiche (Categoria VII - Scienze Sociali e Politiche). Elected 2010. Awards: GPAC Faculty Awards: Best Taught Class, 2020. GPAC Faculty Awards: Best Course to Challenge Your Assumptions, 2020. GPAC Faculty Awards: Best Transition Online, 2020. Veblen-Commons Award, Association for Evolutionary Economics, 2020. Почетного профессора, Urals State University of Economics, 2018. Trustee, Economists for Peace and Security, Elected 2017. -
17-06-27 Full Stock List Drone
DRONE RECORDS FULL STOCK LIST - JUNE 2017 (FALLEN) BLACK DEER Requiem (CD-EP, 2008, Latitudes GMT 0:15, €10.5) *AR (RICHARD SKELTON & AUTUMN RICHARDSON) Wolf Notes (LP, 2011, Type Records TYPE093V, €16.5) 1000SCHOEN Yoshiwara (do-CD, 2011, Nitkie label patch seven, €17) Amish Glamour (do-CD, 2012, Nitkie Records Patch ten, €17) 1000SCHOEN / AB INTRA Untitled (do-CD, 2014, Zoharum ZOHAR 070-2, €15.5) 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO Under a Morphine Sky (CD, 2007, Force of Nature FON07, €8) Between Checks and Artillery. Between Work and Image (10inch, 2007, Angle Records A.R.10.03, €10) Morphine Dawn (maxi-CD, 2004, Crunch Pod CRUNCH 32, €7) 21 GRAMMS Water-Membrane (CD, 2012, Greytone grey009, €12) 23 SKIDOO Seven Songs (do-LP, 2012, LTM Publishing LTMLP 2528, €29.5) 2:13 PM Anus Dei (CD, 2012, 213Records 213cd07, €10) 2KILOS & MORE 9,21 (mCD-R, 2006, Taalem alm 37, €5) 8floors lower (CD, 2007, Jeans Records 04, €13) 3/4HADBEENELIMINATED Theology (CD, 2007, Soleilmoon Recordings SOL 148, €19.5) Oblivion (CD, 2010, Die Schachtel DSZeit11, €14) Speak to me (LP, 2016, Black Truffle BT023, €17.5) 300 BASSES Sei Ritornelli (CD, 2012, Potlatch P212, €15) 400 LONELY THINGS same (LP, 2003, Bronsonunlimited BRO 000 LP, €12) 5IVE Hesperus (CD, 2008, Tortuga TR-037, €16) 5UU'S Crisis in Clay (CD, 1997, ReR Megacorp ReR 5uu2, €14) Hunger's Teeth (CD, 1994, ReR Megacorp ReR 5uu1, €14) 7JK (SIEBEN & JOB KARMA) Anthems Flesh (CD, 2012, Redroom Records REDROOM 010 CD , €13) 87 CENTRAL Formation (CD, 2003, Staalplaat STCD 187, €8) @C 0° - 100° (CD, 2010, Monochrome