e-newsletter of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Volume 6, Issue 4 Fourth quarter 2012

ICLR Board of Directors Building new homes for the wind and Kathy Bardswick (Chair) The Co-operators water to come Barbara Bellissimo By Jason Thistlethwaite, PhD State Farm Research Associate, ICLR Charmaine Dean Western Extreme weather damage was a Climate change is predicted to Andy Hrymak common experience for many increase the likelihood of extreme Western Canadians in 2012. Hurricane weather. This means that homes Paul Kovacs ICLR Sandy, overland flooding in British built today must be designed to Sharon Ludlow Columbia, and urban flooding in withstand a future climate where Swiss Re , Montreal and extreme weather is more probable Deborah Moor Hamilton are all examples of these and frequent. The problem, Lloyd’s damaging events. For most according to the Canadian Sylvie Paquette Canadians, their home represents Mortgage and Housing Corporation Desjardins the first line of defense against is that “no other consumer product Brian Timney Western extreme weather. Information on has changed so little in appearance, the ways homes can be built to structure and functional withstand extreme weather, performance over the past several however, remains scarce. This is decades as the single-family unfortunate because property house.” In other words, new homes damage linked with extreme are built based on historical weather has now replaced fire as experience, not the weather these the most expensive source of homes are likely to experience insurance claims in Canada. throughout their life cycle. New family homes are Fortunately, building designed to last the next 50 years. scientists at the Institute for ► Inside this issue:

Building new 2 homes for the wind and water to come

Swiss Re: 2 Preliminary cat losses for 2012

Superstorm Sandy: 3/4 An perspective

Reducing urban 5/6 flooding through ‘Green Streets’

ICLR announces 7 new book on pioneering wind engineer Building new homes for the wind and water to come cont ... 2

Catastrophic Loss Reduction also useful for preventing water the impact of extreme weather on (ICLR) have been working to damage. The installation of a residential housing. The building develop a range of cost-effective swale between houses, ensuring code provides the minimum building practices that can help a foundation walls are at least standards for the design and home withstand extreme weather 200mm above grade, and a 7- construction of new homes in now and in the future. For 10% slope away from the house Canada. Many of the building example, the installation of a are all identified as important design practices mentioned backwater valve between the water damage mitigation above should be included in the municipal sewer and a home’s measures. building code to ensure new basement drain represents the Researchers at ICLR homes are constructed to most effective approach to have also tested a number of withstand extreme weather now limiting damage from sewer building practices at Western and in the future. Mandatory backup – a common experience University’s Boundary Layer hurricane straps, for example, during heavy rain events. Sump Wind Tunnel that builders can would help ensure that any new pumps that pump water through a use in the design and house built in Canada could discharge pipe at the surface of construction of new homes to withstand extreme winds, even the lot that drains at least 1.8 mitigate wind damage. A one those experienced during an EF- metres away from the foundation story house, for example, is much 2 tornado. is also a critically important more resilient to extreme wind ICLR is partnering with technology. Downspouts should than a two story house. ‘Hip’, home builders from across the also drain onto a permeable rather than ‘gable’ roofs, with no country willing to test out these surface (not cement or asphalt), dormers also ensure a high level practices on new home so that it is absorbed into the of protection from damage. construction. ICLR will be ground, rather than channeled Builders should also be aware of documenting the process to into overburdened storm sewers. technologies such as hurricane demonstrate that a small Below-grade openings or straps that connect a roof to the investment in resilient entrance ways, such as sunken wall. Roof sheathing is another homebuilding today, can prevent basement doors, exterior vulnerability that can be the significant costs generated by stairwells, below-grade windows strengthened by using 5/8” storms like Sandy in the future. and reverse-sloped driveways act sheathing that is fastened using as channels that direct water into ‘twist-shank’ nails at a spacing of basements and should be 6” apart rather than 12”. avoided. A variety of backfill and Building code officials overland drainage strategies are should also pay close attention to

Swiss Re: Preliminary estimates put insured damage for natural catastrophes at USD 60 billion for 2012 According to preliminary After two years of historic losses degree of uncertainty, as it is still estimates from Swiss Re, natural arising from record earthquakes too soon to gauge the final catastrophes will lead to over and floods in Asia Pacific and overall damage. 11,000 lives lost and roughly South America, 2012 was In addition, extremely dry USD 60 billion in insured damage dominated by large, weather- weather conditions and limited for 2012. related losses in the U.S. The top snowfall in the U.S. led to one of After a benign first half of five insured loss events of the the worst droughts in recent the year, Hurricane Sandy and year were all in the U.S. decades, affecting more than half drought in the U.S. in the second Hurricane Sandy was the largest of the country. half of 2012 will lead to total Atlantic hurricane on record in Drought-related economic losses from disasters terms of width. Estimates for the agricultural losses are likely to of at least USD 140 billion. The insured cost of the devastation reach approximately USD 11 tally, says Swiss Re, is moderate are between USD 20 and 25 billion, including pay-outs from compared to 2011, which saw billion, which is relatively high federal assistance programs. historic insured losses of over despite the fact that Sandy was USD 120 billion, largely due to weak in comparison to other record earthquakes and flooding. North Atlantic hurricanes. The It is still, however, above the total insured loss for Sandy is, average for the last 10 years. however, still subject to a high Superstorm Sandy: An Ontario perspective 3 By Geoff Coulson, Warning Preparedness Meteorologist, Environment Canada

Superstorm Sandy began its life discussion on how best to adapt was somewhat unique, with as a tropical storm approximately to the potential for more storms of models from Canada, the U.S. 600 kilometres south of Jamaica this nature in the coming years. and the U.K. indicating a more on October 22, 2012. During the One of the best ways to describe traditional track for the storm course of the following days it Sandy’s lasting legacy will be the keeping it out over the Atlantic. would transition into a hurricane, fact that this could be the storm Given the skill shown by striking Jamaica, Cuba and the that “launches a thousand the ECMWF model in the past, Bahamas. As it moved dissertations.” Many Ph.D. theses and the fact that its forecast track northwards from the Bahamas, it in the coming years in could potentially impact portions would begin to exhibit the Atmospheric Science, Climate of Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic characteristics of both a Science and Emergency Canada with strong winds and hurricane and a mid-latitude fall Management will be drawn from rain, a preliminary e-mail was storm. By the time it made how Sandy formed, evolved and sent to key provincial and landfall in New Jersey on the impacted the U.S. Eastern municipal contacts within Ontario evening of Monday, October 29, Seaboard. on October 23 mentioning the it had completely transitioned into Sandy also provided an possibility of significant weather a a mid-latitude fall storm – albeit a opportunity to demonstrate just full six days into the future. This massive one, with a diameter in how much weather modelling has e-mail represented an example of excess of 1,600 kilometres. The improved over the last couple of the type of “early notification” to combination of Sandy’s winds, decades. The ECMWF key clients that Environment rain, storm surge and snow would (European Centre for Medium- Canada would like to develop leave 135 people dead and loss Range Weather Forecasts) more fully in the coming years. estimates in the United States prediction model uses a very The form that this early ranging from $50-$65 billion powerful computer and has been notification may take could dollars. The impacts in Canada, designed to forecast the weather change in the coming years, but while not on the same scale as in the 3-to-10-day timeframe. the main issue is to try to inform those on the U.S. Eastern Even as Sandy was in its key stakeholders about Seaboard, were still noteworthy: formative stages on October 23, potentially significant weather in the loss of two lives in Ontario, the ECMWF model was the 3-to-7-day timeframe – when 150,000-plus homes without predicting a rare westward turn in forecaster confidence may not be power in Ontario at one point, Sandy’s track into the high, but the event is growing in and approximately $100 million in northeastern seaboard of the probability. Once forecaster insured losses in Ontario, U.S. six days into the future. At confidence about the event has Quebec and Atlantic Canada. A this point, the ECMWF model grown, then formal ► good portion of those losses occurred in the Sarnia and Lambton County areas; the winds from Sandy came howling from the north right off . Much has already been written about the rare “hybrid” nature of Sandy, and over the coming years the data gathered during Sandy’s life will be analyzed and reanalyzed. Many experts have referred to this event as a “once-in-a-lifetime” storm which combined the elements of a hurricane with those of a massive fall storm. The storm renewed debates about the best ways to protect cities near oceans and what role climate change may have played in its creation. While the answers to Image 1: This image shows Sandy making landfall at around 8 PM on October 29 these questions are not readily (0000 GMT Oct. 30). The number of isobars around the low indicate just how low its central pressure was; the purple areas denote marine warnings over Canadian waters; available, Sandy has opened the and the red shows where wind warnings were in effect. Superstorm Sandy: An Ontario perspective cont ... 4 messaging to the media and types of damaging weather that coverage accompanied the days general public (i.e., Special had been mentioned in the leading up to, during, and in the Weather Statements, Watches National Weather Service aftermath of Sandy’s landfall. In and Warnings) would follow. warnings. Because Sandy hit Ontario, more than 200 media As the days went by and around the time of high tide, the requests were handled from other forecast models began to damage from its storm surge was Saturday, October 27, through follow the track originally forecast even more severe. The storm Tuesday, October 30. One of the by the ECMWF, and forecaster surge was accompanied by issues faced by Environment confidence grew, a Special damaging winds, significant rain Canada spokespeople Weather Statement was issued and, in portions of Ohio and West concerning this event was by the Ontario Storm Prediction Virginia, significant amounts of attempting to separate the Centre on Friday, October 26, for snow as cold air was drawn into American impacts of Sandy from much of Southern Ontario. The the system from the north. In the Canadian ones. Some statement mentioned the Ontario, winds began to pick up Ontario media outlets had potential of damaging winds and on the evening of the 29 th with assumed there would be greater heavy rain from Sandy as it made many locations reporting wind impacts in Ontario, based on the its anticipated landfall in the gusts of 80 km/h or more into the reports about Sandy coming out northeastern U.S. on Monday, early morning hours of Tuesday of the U.S., and so some time October 29. By Friday, October the 30 th . As anticipated, Lambton was spent to explain the 26, the Weather Centres in all County received the highest wind differences and to provide more affected regions (Toronto, gusts and most significant context concerning the Ontario Montreal, Dartmouth and damage, with gusts as high as impacts. Gander) were closely co- 100 km/h. Another impact over In summary, Sandy was ordinating to ensure common the south end of Lake Huron was a very rare storm that combined messaging for this event. This co- the creation of 7 metre waves the ocean-driven energy of a ordination included internal from the strong and persistent hurricane with those of a massive technical briefings, briefings for winds from the north. This led to fall storm system. No storm quite key provincial government clients direct impacts on like Sandy had been documented and media briefings. shipping as many large lakers before, but its method of birth and As Sandy neared the had to hold up on the west end of evolution will be a source of U.S. coast during the early unable to transition up research for a number of years to morning hours of Monday, through Lake St Clair and into come. It dramatically October 29, the forecasters in Lake Huron with waves of this demonstrated the vulnerabilities Toronto realized that wind would height. A witness along the of large cities along the U.S. be the main concern in Southern shores of western Lake Erie Eastern Seaboard, where Ontario. So, a Wind Warning was during that Monday evening approximately 20% of the issued for this area, mentioning remarked that it looked like a American population is found. gusts to 90 km/h or more. With floating city of lights given the While the worst impacts from the winds forecast to come from number of lakers waiting for the Sandy were along the U.S. the north, the region that was winds to die down. The strongest northeast coast, the storm was so expected to receive the highest gusts diminished over most of immense that its impacts were gusts was the Lambton County Southern Ontario by mid-morning felt well into Ontario, Quebec and area (as the winds blew in from on the 30 th except in Lambton Atlantic Canada. The storm also Lake Huron). County and over southern Lake provided evidence of the Sandy made landfall at Huron, where strong gusts increased ability for weather about 8 p.m. on Monday, October continued for much of the day. models to provide useful 29, bringing with it the various Extensive media guidance a full seven days before an event. This has important ramifications for the ability of weather services like Environment Canada to provide some form of “early notification” well in advance of large-scale events of this nature. Now that the ability to provide advance notice in this kind of timeframe has been demonstrated, more work needs to be done in the coming years to determine the best avenues to share this type of information with key clients and the general public, and how best to express the uncertainties Image 2: This is a composite of radars showing two bands of rain wrapping over involved in the forecasting of Southern Ontario from Sandy at the time the first image on page 3 was captured. (i.e. these events. 0000 GMT on October 30). Reducing urban flooding through ‘Green Streets’ 5 By Credit Valley Conservation Authority

On a walk through two unique One of the southern (IBC), water damage insurance streets in the Lakeview Ontario 100-year storms occurred claims have soared to $1.7 billion neighbourhood of , in the Creek annually in Canada, overtaking visitors might notice meadow watershed in Mississauga on fire as the leading cause of flowers and grasses blowing August 4, 2009. In two hours, the damage to homes. IBC further along the boulevards while at one storm dropped 68 mm of rain that indicates that the majority of end of the street, a large patch of rushed through urban streets and claim payouts are now related to black-eyed susans beckons. The parks overwhelming the severe weather and water only hint that there is something stormwater management system, damage. Compounding this is truly unique here is a large sign flooding hundreds of residential frustration by homeowners who near the black-eyed susans and business basements. Since cannot get insurance against proudly proclaiming, “This is a that date, 21 other rain events overland flooding or damages Green Street”. have occurred in the Credit River caused by rising water tables. The Lakeview Road watershed including remnants of The climate picture Revitalization project (on portions Hurricane Sandy. These extreme continues to darken. The Toronto of First and Third Streets) is the events ranged from dropping 50 Environment Office released its first-of-its-kind project in Canada to 121 mm of rain over a 24-hour Toronto's Future Weather & that is serving as a model for period. The remnants of Climate Driver Study in October communities province-wide. On Hurricane Sandy event produced 2012 projecting that by 2049, the these streets, bioretention cells 95 mm of rain over two days. maximum amount of rainfall (or “rain gardens”) and Costs to clean-up and expected in any single day and in permeable driveways replace a repair devastation caused by any single hour will more than traditional curb-and-gutter severe storms continue to mount. double. streetscape to treat rainfall and Insured damages for one In the midst of escalating urban runoff where it falls. Such southern Ontario storm in 2005 insurance and infrastructure “green streets” prevent were estimated at $500 million. In costs, innovative water stormwater from overwhelming Mississauga, the estimated cost technologies such as low impact storm sewers during extreme of repairing damages from the development (LID) practices offer weather events and filter out Cooksville 2009 storm is $90 environmentally sound and pollutants before entering million. economically viable alternatives streams and rivers which flow to According to the to traditional stormwater , the source of Insurance Bureau of Canada management practices. ► drinking water for 8 million people.

Growth in urban flooding

Urban flooding has become one of the most substantial threats to property and health safety in many Ontario cities. Events of the past ten years have exemplified its severity and costs. In southern Ontario alone in the past eight years, there have been three 100-year storms (storms expected to occur once every 100 years) and five 50-year storms (storms expected to occur once every 50 years) Flooding events in Peterborough, A “green street’ in the Lakeview Mississauga and Toronto have neighborhood of Mississauga caused over $500 million in incorporates permeable paver driveways, curb cuts and bioretention damages to public and private or “rain” gardens to treat rainfall and property. urban runoff where it falls. Reducing urban flooding through ‘Green Streets’ cont ... 6

Sites such as the Lakeview more runoff than those of the LID Current systems and project prove why. sites. Furthermore, the response infrastructure, however, are not time for the LID sites was designed or operated with a delayed and spread out over a dramatically changing climate in Lakeview Project longer period of time, thus mind, and more frequent extreme mimicking pre-development or weather events forecast to The project in Mississauga’s natural conditions. continue into the foreseeable Lakeview neighborhood began Though this is very future. with extensive neighborhood encouraging in these early days, Innovative water consultation. Through door-to- many questions remain: Are technologies such as those door conversations and these results because of one currently operating in the newsletters to an on-site open particular LID practice or all? Lakeview neighborhood of house, all homeowners actively What will happen during more Mississauga are showing real participated in the process. The significant rainfall events? How is and significant opportunities to result? Twenty-one of twenty-six water quality affected? reduce water quantity and homeowners chose flowering Performance monitoring improve water quality entering gardens to top the bioretention will continue throughout 2013 at municipal storm sewers for cells that replaced their original this and various LID sites. protection of human health and ditches, while the remaining five Lessons learned from design, the natural environment. selected various grasses. This construction, operation and vegetation allows rainfall to maintenance as well as infiltrate slowly into the ground monitoring at LID sites rather than rushing directly into throughout southern Ontario will municipal storm sewers. Performance monitoring at the site began in August 2012 from equipment located at the two green street sites and at a control site close to the same neighborhood. This monitoring is one factor in understanding impacts from specific LID practices on both the quality and quantity of water flowing from the site. A key objective of the monitoring will be to evaluate the performance of LID practices to effectively reduce infiltration/ inflow (I&I) of stormwater into municipal sanitary sewer systems, ease stress on aging stormwater infrastructure by decreasing runoff volume, peak flows, pollutants and erosion as well as to restore natural water form the basis of guidance balance. documentation that Credit Valley Based on observations to Conservation and partners will date, the Lakeview site is publish beginning in 2014. capturing 80 to 95 percent of Municipal stormwater typical rainfall events in the GTA. management systems protect The water quantity benefits of health and safety of the public these practices were evident and the natural environment by following the watershed’s controlling the quality and Hurricane Sandy event. During quantity of rainfall and urban this event, the curb and gutter runoff reaching streams and control site representing rivers that eventually flow to Lake conventional stormwater Ontario, the source of drinking practices produced significantly water for millions of people. ICLR announces new book on pioneering wind engineer 7 By Glenn McGillivray Managing Director, ICLR The Institute for Catastrophic marbled striations in order to test Loss Reduction has announced models of buildings and bridges the launch of Wind Wizard: Alan that inevitably face the wind when G. Davenport and the Art of Wind built. Engineering , a book Over the years, commissioned by the Institute in Davenport's revolutionary lab honour of Dr. Alan Davenport, investigated and improved the pioneering wind engineering wind-worthiness of the world's professor at Western University greatest structures, including the and former Chairman of Sears Tower, the John Hancock Research at ICLR. Tower, Shanghai's World With Wind Wizard , author Financial Center, the CN Tower, Siobhan Roberts tells the story of the iconic Golden Gate Bridge, Alan Davenport (1932-2009), the the Bronx-Whitestone Bridge, the father of modern wind Sunshine Skyway, and the engineering, who investigated proposed crossing for the Strait how wind navigates the obstacle of Messina, linking Sicily with course of the earth's natural and mainland Italy. built environments--and how, Chronicling Davenport's when not properly heeded, wind innovations by analyzing select causes buildings and bridges to projects, this popular-science teeter unduly, sway with book gives an illuminating abandon, and even collapse. In behind-the-scenes view into the 1964, Davenport received a practice of wind engineering, and confidential telephone call from insight into Davenport's steadfast two engineers requesting tests on belief that there is neither a a pair of towers that promised to structure too tall nor too long, as be the tallest in the world. His long as it is supported by sound resulting wind studies on New wind science. York City's World Trade Center The book is currently advanced the art and science of available for sale at Amazon and wind engineering with one Indigo/Chapters. pioneering innovation after another. Establishing the first dedicated "boundary layer" wind tunnel laboratory for civil engineering structures, Davenport enabled the study of the atmospheric region from the earth's surface to three thousand feet, where the air churns with turbulent eddies, the average wind speed increasing with height. The boundary layer wind tunnel mimics these windy

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Mission Western University 20 Richmond Street East To reduce the loss of life and property Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Suite 210 caused by severe weather and earthquakes 1151 Richmond Street Toronto, Ontario through the identification and support of London, Ontario M5C 2R9 sustained actions that improve society’s N6G 5B9 Tel: (416) 364-8677 capacity to adapt to, anticipate, mitigate, Tel: (519) 661-3338 Fax: (416) 364-5889 withstand and recover from natural Fax: (519) 661-3339 www.iclr.org disasters. www.iclr.org www.basementfloodreduction.com www.basementfloodreduction.com