Is Multifamily As Resilient As We Think?

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS PRESENTS IS MULTIFAMILY AS RESILIENT AS WE THINK?

PRESENTERS:

NATHAN ADKINS JEANETTE RICE Sr. Economist Head, Multifamily CBRE Econometric Advisors CBRE Americas Research IS MULTIFAMILY AS RESILIENT AS WE THINK?

RESILIENT? YES, BUT RESILIENCY VARIES:

• Urban-Suburban • Class • Region / Metro

BROAD PATTERNS

DEEPER DIVE

OUTLOOK

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 114 URBANICITY: COMPARISON - GFC TO COVID

Urban-Suburban Rent Change Year-over-Year Urban-Suburban Vacancy Change Year-over-Year

(%) GFC Covid (bps) 0 1.80 -1 1.60 -2 1.40 -3 1.20 -4 1.00 -5 0.80 -6 0.60 -7 0.40 -8 0.20 -9 0.00 GFC Covid -10 Urban Suburban Urban Suburban

Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 115 URBANICITY: URBAN VS. SUBURBAN VACANCY TRENDS

Urban Core vs. Suburban Submarkets - Vacancy %

5 5.1 4.6 4

3 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Urban Core Suburban

Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 116 URBANICITY: URBAN VS. SUBURBAN RENT TRENDS

Urban vs. Suburban Submarkets - Rent Change Year-over-Year

% 8 6 4 2 0 -0.2 -2 -1.8 -4 -6 -8 -10 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Urban Core Submarkets Suburban Submarkets

Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 117 URBANICITY: URBAN VS. SUBURBAN SUPPLY GROWTH

Urban Core vs. Suburban Submarkets – Stock Growth (YOY) 3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Urban Core Suburban

Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 118 CLASS: COMPARISON - GFC TO COVID

Class Rent Change Year-over-Year Class Vacancy Change Year-over-Year

(%) GFC Covid (bps) 4 2.50 2 2.00 0 1.50 -2

-4 1.00

-6 0.50 -8 0.00 -10 GFC Covid

Class A Class B Class C Class A Class B Class C

Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 119 CLASS: HISTORICAL VACANCY

Historical Vacancy by Class % 9

2 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Class A Class B Class C

Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 120 CLASS: HISTORICAL RENT CHANGE

Class Rent Change Year-over-Year

% 9

3 3.2

0 -0.8 -1.9 -3

-6

-9

-12 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Class A Class B Class C Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 121 CLASS: RENT CHANGE - MONTHLY DATA

Historical Year-Over-Year Rent Change % 8

4 3.8

0 0.0

-2 -3.0 -4 Aug 2020 Oct 2019 Dec 2019 Feb 2020 April 2020 June 2020 Aug 2020

Class A Class B Class C

Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 122 BEFORE AND AFTER: CLASS BY URBANICITY

Rent Change Year-over-Year Vacancy Change Year-over-Year

(%) (bps) 4 1.60 3 1.40

2 1.20

1 1.00

0 0.80

-1 0.60

-2 0.40

-3 0.20

-4 0.00 Urban Core Suburban Urban Core Suburban Class A Class B Class C Class A Class B Class C Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 123 REGIONS/METROS - PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES – CHANGE MARCH TO AUGUST 2020

Change in Effective Rents (%)

5 Greensboro Inland Empire Richmond 4 Detroit 3 Sacramento Salt Lake City Memphis Providence Cincinnati Milwaukee 2 Baltimore Columbus San Diego Virginia Beach Cleveland Kansas City 1 Ft. Worth Raleigh Pittsburgh Las Vegas Atlanta Tampa St. Louis 0 San Antonio Phoenix Indianapolis Portland Newark/NNJ -1 CharlotteU.S. Minneapolis Jacksonville Denver Dallas Nashville -2 Houston Philadelphia Orlando Washington -3 Orange Co. Miami Chicago Austin Seattle -4 Ft. Lauderdale Boston West Palm Beach -5 Oakland Los Angeles -6 -7 -8 -9 New York -10 -11 San Jose -12 San Francisco -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Change in Vacancy (bps)

Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 124 REGIONS/METROS - PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES – CHANGE MARCH TO AUGUST 2020

Change in Effective Rents (%) 5 Greensboro Inland Empire Richmond 4 Detroit 3 Sacramento Salt Lake City Memphis Providence Cincinnati Milwaukee 2 Baltimore Columbus San Diego Virginia Beach Cleveland Kansas City 1 Ft. Worth Raleigh Pittsburgh Las Vegas Atlanta Tampa St. Louis 0 San Antonio Phoenix Indianapolis Portland Newark/NNJ -1 CharlotteU.S. Minneapolis Jacksonville -2 Denver Dallas Nashville Houston Washington -3 Philadelphia Orlando Orange Co. Miami Chicago Austin Seattle -4 Ft. Lauderdale Boston West Palm Beach -5 Oakland Los Angeles -6 -7 -8 -9 New York -10 -11 San Jose -12 San Francisco -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Change in Vacancy (bps) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 125 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT & VACANCY CHANGE - INDIANAPOLIS

Change in Effective Rents (%) 4 Greenwood/Johnson County West Indianapolis 3 Eagle Creek Southeast Indianapolis Far West Indianapolis Suburbs

2 Northeast Indianapolis Southwest Indianapolis Anderson Carmel/Hamilton County 1 Northwest Indianapolis Market East Indianapolis Lawrence 0

-1

-2

-3 Downtown Indianapolis

-4 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 Change in Vacancy (bps) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 126 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT & VACANCY CHANGE - PHILADELPHIA Change in Effective Rents (%)

5 Burlington County Delaware County 4 Outer Wilmington 3 North Montgomery County Central Wilmington Camden/Cherry Hill 2 Gloucester County Northeast Philadelphia Lower Camden County Newark 1 Northwest Philadelphia Philadelphia Market Trenton/Ewing Southwest Philadelphia 0 Bucks County Norristown/Upper Merion/Lower Merion Chester County -1 Trenton Market -2 North Mercer County -3 -4 -5 Center City Philadelphia -6 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Change in Vacancy (bps) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 127 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT CHANGE & AUGUST RENT - PHILADELPHIA

Change in Effective Rents (%)

5 Burlington County 4 Delaware County 3 Outer Wilmington North Montgomery County 2 Central Wilmington Camden/Cherry Hill Trenton/Ewing 1 Gloucester County Philadelphia Market Northwest Philadelphia Southwest Philadelphia 0 Bucks County Norristown/Upper Merion/Lower Merion -1 Chester County Trenton Market -2 North Mercer County -3 -4 -5 Center City Philadelphia -6 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600 $1,700 $1,800 $1,900 $2,000 $2,100 $2,200 Effective Rent ($) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 128 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT & VACANCY CHANGE - PHOENIX

Change in Effective Rents (%) 10 9 Pinal County 8 7 6 5 South Glendale 4 Far West Phoenix 3 Northwest Phoenix Avondale/Goodyear/West Glendale 2 Gilbert West Phoenix Southwest Mesa 1 East Mesa Northwest Mesa Peoria/Sun City/Surprise North Glendale 0 South Phoenix East Phoenix Chandler Market -1 Northeast Phoenix Central Phoenix -2 South Tempe North Tempe/University Deer Valley -3 -4 North Scottsdale -5 South Scottsdale North Central Phoenix -6 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Change in Vacancy (bps) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 129 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT & VACANCY CHANGE – DALLAS/FT. WORTH

Change in Effective Rents (%) 6 Central Arlington Burleson/Johnson County 5 Southern Dallas County Ellis County 4 Grand Prairie East Fort Worth North Fort Worth/Keller South Arlington/Mansfield West Fort Worth/Parker County 3 Intown Fort Worth/University South Fort Worth North Arlington Far East Dallas Haltom City/Meacham 2 Hunt County Kaufman County Mesquite Ft. Worth Market Northeast Dallas Southwest Fort Worth Southeast Dallas Lewisville/Flower Mound 1 North Dallas Northeast Fort Worth/North Richland Hills Allen/McKinney Hurst/Euless/Bedford Denton South Irving 0 North Oak Cliff/West DallasFar North Dallas Frisco East Dallas Southwest Dallas Garland Carrollton/Farmers Branch -1 Richardson The Colony/Far North Carrollton Dallas Market Zang Triangle/Cedars/Fair Park Rockwall/Rowlett/Wylie Northwest Dallas -2 Central/East Plano North Irving Oak Lawn/Park Cities -3 Grapevine/Southlake Addison/Bent Tree Intown Dallas -4 Las Colinas/Coppell -5 Love Field/Medical District West Plano -6 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020. Change in Vacancy (bps)

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 130 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT CHG & AUGUST RENT – DALLAS/FT. WORTH Change in Effective Rents (%) 6 Burleson/Johnson County 5 Haltom City/Meacham Ellis County Southern Dallas County 4 Grand Prairie North Fort Worth/Keller East Fort Worth West Fort Worth/Parker County 3 South Fort Worth Intown Fort Worth/University Kaufman County South Arlington/Mansfield Hunt County Far East Dallas Mesquite 2 Ft. Worth Market Northeast Fort Worth/North Richland Hills Southeast Dallas North Arlington Lewisville/Flower Mound Southwest Fort Worth 1 Northeast Dallas Denton Carrollton/Farmers Branch South Irving North Dallas Frisco 0 Allen/McKinney Southwest Dallas East Dallas Garland North Oak Cliff/West Dallas Richardson -1 Northwest Dallas The Colony/Far North Carrollton Zang Triangle/Cedars/Fair Park Dallas Market Far North Dallas Central/East Plano Rockwall/Rowlett/Wylie -2 Hurst/Euless/Bedford North Irving Oak Lawn/Park Cities Central Arlington -3 Addison/Bent Tree Grapevine/Southlake Intown Dallas -4 Las Colinas/Coppell -5 Love Field/Medical District West Plano -6 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800

Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020. Effective Rent ($)

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 131 REGIONS/METROS - PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES – CHANGE MARCH TO AUGUST 2020

Change in Effective Rents (%) 5 Greensboro Inland Empire Richmond 4 Detroit Sacramento Salt Lake City 3 Memphis Providence Cincinnati Milwaukee 2 Virginia Beach Baltimore Columbus Cleveland San Diego Ft. Worth Kansas City 1 Raleigh Pittsburgh Las Vegas Atlanta Tampa St. Louis 0 Indianapolis San Antonio Phoenix Charlotte Portland Newark/NNJ -1 U.S. Minneapolis Jacksonville Denver -2 Dallas Nashville Houston Washington -3 Philadelphia Orlando Orange Co. Miami Chicago Austin Seattle -4 Ft. Lauderdale Boston West Palm Beach -5 Oakland Los Angeles -6 -7 -8 -9 New York -10 -11 San Jose -12 San Francisco -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Change in Vacancy (bps) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 132 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT & VACANCY CHANGE - SEATTLE Change in Effective Rents (%) 4 East Pierce County 3 Tacoma Market

2 Southwest Pierce County 1 North Tacoma South Tacoma/University Place Kent/Auburn Federal Way/Des Moines Everett SeaTac/Burien 0

-1 Lynnwood/Edmonds/Mukilteo North Seattle/Shoreline -2 Renton -3 Capitol Hill/Central District -4 Kirkland/Bothell Seattle Market University District/Ballard South Lake Union/Queen Anne -5 East Bellevue/Issaquah West Bellevue/Mercer Island -6 Redmond West Seattle/South Seattle -7 Downtown Seattle -8 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Change in Vacancy (bps) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 133 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT CHANGE & AUGUST RENT - SEATTLE Change in Effective Rents (%) 4 East Pierce County 3 Tacoma Market 2 Southwest Pierce County North Tacoma 1 Federal Way/Des Moines South Tacoma/University Place Everett Kent/Auburn 0 SeaTac/Burien -1 Lynnwood/Edmonds/Mukilteo -2 North Seattle/Shoreline Renton -3 Kirkland/Bothell Capitol Hill/Central District -4 Seattle Market University District/Ballard South Lake Union/Queen Anne -5 East Bellevue/Issaquah -6 Redmond West Seattle/South Seattle West Bellevue/Mercer Island -7 Downtown Seattle -8 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 Effective Rent ($) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 134 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT & VACANCY CHANGE – LOS ANGELES

Change in Effective Rents (%) San Bernardino Southeast Los Angeles 5 Ontario/Chino Temecula/Murrieta Rancho Cucamonga/Upland Hemet/Perris/Lake4 Elsinore Ventura University City/Moreno Valley Riverside Fontana/Rialto/Colton 3 Redlands Corona Camarillo Inland Empire Market South San Gabriel Valley 2Antelope Valley Garden Grove/Westminster North San Gabriel Valley Ventura Market Buena Park/Cypress 1 Victorville/Outer San Bernardino Oxnard Thousand Oaks 0 North Orange County West Anaheim Coachella Valley Simi Valley/Moorpark Mission Viejo/Lake Forest Tustin/West Santa Ana -1 Santa Clarita Valley East Anaheim/Orange Long Beach Northridge/Northwest San Fernando Valley North Irvine Van Nuys/Northeast San Fernando Valley -2 East Los Angeles South Orange County Fullerton South Irvine Costa Mesa -3 Huntington Beach Santa Ana South Los Angeles Santa Monica/Marina del Rey -4 Newport Beach Orange Co. Market Woodland Hills Los Angeles Market -5 Sherman Oaks/North Hollywood/Encino -6 Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena West Irvine South Bay -7 Palms/Mar Vista Hollywood -8 Brentwood/Westwood/Beverly Hills -9 Downtown Los Angeles -10 Mid-Wilshire -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020. Change in Vacancy (bps)

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 135 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT & VACANCY CHANGE – NEW YORK Change in Effective Rents (%)

6 Stamford/Norwalk Long Island Market Bronx 4 Monmouth Co. East Suffolk Bridgeport/Danbury Bergen Co. Northeast Middlesex Co. Passaic/Sussex Counties 2 Ocean Co. Northwest Middlesex Co. Newark 0 Union Co. Bridgeport-Stamford Market Morris Co. South Middlesex Co. Somerset/Hunterdon Cos. Nassau/West Suffolk -2 Newark/NNJ Market NY Northern Suburbs West Essex Co. South Westchester Co. Hoboken/North Hudson Co. -4 Harlem Central Middlesex Co. Brooklyn -6 Jersey City Staten Island Queens -8 Upper East Side Lower East Side Midtown West -10 NY Market

-12 Upper West Side Midtown East -14

-16 Financial District -18 Lower West Side -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Change in Vacancy (bps) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 136 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT CHANGE & AUGUST RENT – NEW YORK

Change in Effective Rents (%)

6 Passaic/Sussex Counties NE Middlesex Co. Union Co. Bronx 4Monmouth Co. Bridgeport/Danbury 2 Ocean Co. East Suffolk Newark NY Northern Suburbs Bergen Co. Long Island Market 0 Morris Co. Stamford/Norwalk NW Middlesex Co. Newark/NNJ Market Nassau/West Suffolk Bridgeport-Stamford Market -2 West Essex Co. So. Westchester Co. Hoboken/North Hudson Co. Somerset/Hunterdon Cos. -4 Harlem Central Middlesex Co. -6 Brooklyn So. Middlesex Co. Queens Staten Island Jersey City -8 Upper East Side NY Market Lower East Side -10 Midtown West Midtown East -12 Upper West Side -14

-16 Financial District -18 Lower West Side 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600 4,800 Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020. Effective Rent ($)

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 137 SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCES - RENT & VACANCY CHANGE – SAN FRANCISCO Change in Effective Rents (%) 2 Northeast Contra Costa County Concord/Martinez 0 San Ramon/Dublin -2 Hayward/San Leandro/Union City Northwest Contra Costa County Walnut Creek/Lafayette Marin County -4 East San Jose West San Francisco Oakland Market South San Jose -6 Livermore/Pleasanton Fremont North San Mateo County -8 West San Jose/Campbell Central San Jose North San Jose/Milpitas -10 South San Mateo County Oakland/Berkeley San Jose Market San Fran Market -12 Santa Clara Mountain View/Palo Alto/Los Altos SoMa -14 Central San Mateo County Downtown San Francisco North Sunnyvale -16 South Sunnyvale/Cupertino -18 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 Change in Vacancy (bps) Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 138 SUBMARKETS WITH GREATEST LOSS OF RENTERS – URBAN & GATEWAY PRIMARILY

Submarkets with Greatest Outmigration of Renters (Net Absorption for April through August Relative to Inventory)

Downtown San Francisco 7.1 La Jolla/University City (San Diego) 5.5 Largo/Seminole (Tampa) 4.9 Staten Island (NY) 4.5 Southwest Boston 4.4 Downtown Seattle 3.9 Brentwood/Westwood/Beverly Hills (LA) 3.7 Lower East Side (NY) 3.6 We st San Francisco 3.6 South Sunnyvale/Cupertino (San Jose) 3.5 South San Mateo County (San Fran) 3.3 So. Lake Union/Queen Anne (Seattle) 3.3 Midtown East (NY) 3.0 North Palm Beach County 3.0 North Central DC 2.9 Evanston/Rogers Park/Uptown (Chicago) 2.9 North Sunnyvale (San Jose ) 2.8 Ce ntral Cincinnati 2.7 West Seattle/South Seattle 2.7 SoMa (San Francisco) 2.7 Urban Core Urban Higher-Density Close-In Suburban/Urban Suburban Lower-Density Source: CBRE Research, RealPage, August 2020. ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 139 FORECASTED RENT RECOVERY FOR URBAN CORE SUBMARKETS

Number of quarters until rent recovery Riverside Downtown Indianapolis Central Las Vegas Downtown Detroit The Loop (Chicago) Central DC Center City Philadelphia Central Phoenix Intown Dallas Downtown San Francisco Downtown Los Angeles Downtown Seattle Intown Boston Upper East Side (NYC) Lower East Side (NYC) Upper West Side (NYC) Midtown West (NYC) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Midwest South/West Coastal NYC/SF Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020. ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 140 URBAN CORE RENT FORECAST

Rent Forecast ($/unit/month) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2017q2 2017q3 2017q4 2018q1 2018q2 2018q3 2018q4 2019q1 2019q2 2019q3 2019q4 2020q1 2020q2 2020q3 2020q4 2021q1 2021q2 2021q3 2021q4 2022q1 2022q2 2022q3 2022q4 2023q1 2023q2 2023q3 2023q4 2024q1 2024q2 2024q3 2024q4 2025q1 2025q2 NYC/SF Coastal South/West Midwest

Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020. ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 141 SUBURBAN RENT FORECAST

Rent Forecast ($/unit/month) 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 2017q2 2017q3 2017q4 2018q1 2018q2 2018q3 2018q4 2019q1 2019q2 2019q3 2019q4 2020q1 2020q2 2020q3 2020q4 2021q1 2021q2 2021q3 2021q4 2022q1 2022q2 2022q3 2022q4 2023q1 2023q2 2023q3 2023q4 2024q1 2024q2 2024q3 2024q4 2025q1 2025q2 NYC/SF Coastal South/West Midwest Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 142 FORECASTED RENT RECOVERY BY REGION AND URBANICITY

Number of quarters until rent recovery

0 Midwest South/West Coastal NY/SF Urban Suburban

Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 143 NATIONAL FORECAST

Rent and Vacancy Outlook through 2022 $ 1,850 7 Vacancy Peak – 2 pts higher than Q1 1,800 6

1,750 5

1,700 4

1,650 3

1,600 Rent Trough – 6% lower than Q1 2

1,550 1

1,500 0 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Effective Rent (Left Scale) Vacancy (Right Scale) Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q2 2020.

ECONOMETRIC ADVISORS 144