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Space Traffic Management Space Traffic Management Final Report International Space University Summer Session Program 2007 Beijing, China © International Space University. All Rights Reserved. The 2007 Summer Session Program of the International Space University was hosted by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and Beihang University in Beijing, China. Cover Artwork by: Ayako Ono & Cian Curran. While all care has been taken in the preparation of this report, it should not be relied upon, and ISU does not take any responsibility for the accuracy of its content. The views expressed in this report are the personal views of the authors and in no way reflect the official opinions of the countries or organizations they represent. The Executive Summary, ordering information, and order forms may be found on the ISU website at www.isunet.edu/services/library/isu_publications.htm. Copies of the Executive Summary and the Final Report can also be ordered from: International Space University Strasbourg Central Campus Attention: Publication/Library Parc d’Innovation 1, rue Jean-Dominique Cassini 67400 Illkirch-Graffenstaden France Tel: +33 (0) 3 88 65 54 32 Fax: +33(0) 3 88 65 54 47 e-mail: [email protected] ii ____________________________ Acknowledgements The International Space University Summer Session Program 2007 and the work of the Space Traffic Management Team were made possible by the generous support of the following organizations and individuals: PROJECT SPONSORS The Arsenault Family Foundation The International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety PROJECT FACULTY AND TEACHING ASSOCIATES Co-chair : William Marshall (UK), NASA-Ames Research Center, USA Faculty Shepherds : Lucy Stojak, Institute of Air and Space Law-McGill University, Canada Isabelle Bouvet, CNES, International Affairs, France Teaching Associate : Incigul Polat Erdogan, HAVELSAN Inc., Turkey EXTERNAL EXPERTS : Han Zengyao : CAST, China Kai-Uwe Schrogle : European Space Policy Institute, Austria Patrick Cohendet : HEC Montreal, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France René Oosterlinck : ESA Headquarters, France Richard Tremayne-Smith : BNSC Representative to IADC, UK Rüdiger Jehn : ESA/ESOC, Germany Wang Ting : BUAA, China William H. Ailor : The Aerospace Foundation, USA Banavar Sridhar : NASA-Ames Research Center, USA Andres Galvez : ESA-ESTEC, The Netherlands William Glascoe : OSD-National Security Space Office, USA Richard DalBello : Intelsat Generation Corp., USA The Arsenault Family Foundation The International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety © International Space University. All Rights Reserved. iii ________________________________________ Authors v ________________________________________ Abstract Space is no longer the vast emptiness that is was at the birth of the space age in 1957. Orbits are becoming congested as a result of an increase in the number of objects in space – both operational satellites and, most significantly, orbital space debris. Moreover, currently, it is not technologically feasible to remove debris from orbit. This report focuses on space traffic rules which would reduce the probability of debris- causing collisions and thus enable space activity to continue to increase more efficiently for all actors. Three key orbital zones were identified as near-term problem areas for space traffic: sun-synchronous orbits (SSO), geo-stationary orbits (GEO) and orbits used by human-rated spacecraft. Taking into account the unique applications of these orbits, key rules have been developed to address orbit-specific problems, as well as rules for collision avoidance maneuvers for all orbits. This report on Space Traffic Management (STM) uses the IAA Cosmic Study on Space Traffic Management as a starting point, and tackles several of its key recommendations. This was accomplished by an interdisciplinary team effort that integrates the technical, policy, law, and business management aspects of STM. From the outset, the aim of this report was to assess the extent of the problem of space traffic and, once this extent was established, develop effective measures to manage this. The report recommends a set of eleven technical traffic rules and two environmental rules as a basis for a long-term solution. These rules take into account current political and legal realities and are contextualized within the structure of an international system for space traffic management. The report lays out a path for the optimization and adoption of these rules utilizing existing organizations, specifically IADC and UNCOPUOS and recommends the creation of a new organization, the International Space traffic Management Organization (ISMO), as the appropriate body to manage space traffic management operations. It is believed that this report is a step forward in understanding and dealing with the complex issue of space traffic and its consequences. Although the set of rules is not definitive, they are a starting point that lays the foundations for future analysis and the creation of realistic and appropriate solutions to the predicted increase in space traffic in years to come. Raising awareness of the space traffic problem must happen soon because if the issue of the growing use of limited orbital resources is not dealt with in its nascent form, the long-term effects and technological challenges are predicted to be formidable. vi Space Traffic Management ________________________________ Faculty Preface The 2007 International Space University (ISU) Summer Session Program (SSP) was held during July and August in Beijing, China, at the Beihang University campus. The SSP brought together graduate students and space professionals from all over the world and immersed them in an intensive nine-week, interdisciplinary, intercultural and international curriculum of lectures, workshops, site visits and research. A key component of every SSP is the Team Project in which the students produce a space research project on a topic of international relevance. In 2007, four different Team Projects were undertaken. This report contains the findings of one of them: Space Traffic Management, a project to design a first iteration of a system of rules and management for space traffic in Earth orbit, with the aim of enabling the future efficient use of space. The team consisted of thirty people from seventeen countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, the UK and the USA) and six continents. The project was supported by space experts from around the world, both inside and outside the ISU community. The objectives of the project were to provide: • A proposed set of technically viable STM rules • The engineering analysis on the feasibility of implementation of these rules • An overview of the policy and legal implication of these rules • A proposed system to manage the implementation of these rules The team was asked to identify and evaluate the design of a space traffic management system; produce a report that can influence future international planning and execution of such a system; and provide experience in a multidisciplinary teamwork environment, under pressure of limited time and resources. During the project, the team researched the existing STM rules and literature on proposed future rules. They then modeled the propagation of debris and satellites and performed a series of collision analyses. This formed the basic knowledge which enabled them to propose a set of rules of space traffic that are technically viable. The team then analyzed the engineering means to implement such a system, including the constraint of using only freely available space surveillance data, the legal and policy options, the design of a management system and the plan for outreach of the results to the space community and public. The STM system proposed cannot be considered final nor complete. However, notwithstanding the need for considerable further optimization, the resulting system design can be considered a first comprehensive system of STM rules that have been analyzed for technical viability, as well as the associated management systems for those rules. On behalf of the faculty, shepherds and teaching associate, I am pleased to commend both the team and its report to you. We highly recommend that the study be assessed by space experts, space agencies and international fora, and considered as a first iteration on a path to a fully STM scheme that, once optimized, will enable the efficient use of the space domain in the years to come. The team was fortunate to have an excellent mix of skills and the group self organized efficiently: a combination that enabled the project to go into some considerable depth given the tight time limitations. It has indeed been a great pleasure to work on this project with such a professional, smart and dedicated team. William Marshall, Ph.D. NASA-Ames Research Center © International Space University. All Rights Reserved. vii ________________________________ Student Preface Space Traffic Management has potentially far-reaching effects and significant importance for the continued use of space. As such, we believe that it could very well become a reality within our lifetimes. Laying the foundation for the creation of a Space Traffic Management system has required an analysis of complex technical, political and operational challenges. This report is result of that process and we are excited to share its findings which we consider to be of sound practical
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